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000
FXUS63 KEAX 020838
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 020838
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat StratoCu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bu fr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatological favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until FROPA. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat StratoCu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bu fr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatological favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until FROPA. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 012340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 012340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 012114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 012114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 011756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 011126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually exit the area over
the next few hours, and associated 10-12 kft ceilings will follow
behind by late morning to early afternoon. Scattered to broken
stratus with bases around 1500 ft across far northwest MO will also
slide east and gradually mix out this morning, possibly impacting
KSTJ but likely staying north of KMCI and KMKC. Otherwise, scattered
cumulus with bases around 3-4 kft will develop this afternoon, and a
few scattered storms are possible across central MO during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Most storms should stay south of the
terminals, but a stray storm may develop in the vicinity of KC. Winds
will gradually turn to the west and then northwest before becoming
light and variable this evening, and some patchy fog is possible by
early Tuesday morning especially at KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 011126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually exit the area over
the next few hours, and associated 10-12 kft ceilings will follow
behind by late morning to early afternoon. Scattered to broken
stratus with bases around 1500 ft across far northwest MO will also
slide east and gradually mix out this morning, possibly impacting
KSTJ but likely staying north of KMCI and KMKC. Otherwise, scattered
cumulus with bases around 3-4 kft will develop this afternoon, and a
few scattered storms are possible across central MO during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Most storms should stay south of the
terminals, but a stray storm may develop in the vicinity of KC. Winds
will gradually turn to the west and then northwest before becoming
light and variable this evening, and some patchy fog is possible by
early Tuesday morning especially at KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010851
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010851
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 010451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 010348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of thunderstorms generally steady state or weakening as they
move through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Wind reports along
the edge of the line have ranged between 40 and 50 mph, although its
possible that there could continue to be an isolated 60 mph wind gust
or two along the leading edge of the line and/or any associated
outflow. MLCAPE values have dwindled down to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg
with MLCIN values climbing to around 150 J/kg, perhaps indicating
that existing activity is becoming more elevated as the boundary
layer cools. Surface winds in front of the line continue to be backed
to the south and gusty to around 20 mph, resulting in decent SRH
values (0-1 km of 250 m2/s2). Bottom line, with CIN values increasing
the severe threat is generally winding down, but other convective
parameters are concerning enough to warrant a continued threat for
isolated severe winds through the next several hours.

Precipitable water values of near 1.5 - 2.0 inches will keep the
heavy rain and flooding threat a concern through the overnight hours,
especially as the thunderstorm complex moves through the KC metro.
The ongoing storm activity will continue to be fed by a strong low
level jet, which will continue the storm activity. Will continue to
watch the potential for flooding through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Forecast is still on track for a line of thunderstorms to move
through each terminal over the next several hours. The line will be
approaching from the west/northwest, so KSTJ will be affected
earliest in the forecast period, with KMCI and KMKC shortly
following. The probability for severe weather is marginal at this
point, but these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the
terminals through the late evening and overnight period. The best
window for heavy rain and strong winds will only be a couple hours,
but light rain with occasional/frequent lightning will follow the
main punch and last through the night time hours before clearing out
by early Monday morning. Thereafter models hinting at some MVFR CIGs
through most of the day on Monday before becoming VFR by late
morning/early afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of thunderstorms generally steady state or weakening as they
move through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Wind reports along
the edge of the line have ranged between 40 and 50 mph, although its
possible that there could continue to be an isolated 60 mph wind gust
or two along the leading edge of the line and/or any associated
outflow. MLCAPE values have dwindled down to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg
with MLCIN values climbing to around 150 J/kg, perhaps indicating
that existing activity is becoming more elevated as the boundary
layer cools. Surface winds in front of the line continue to be backed
to the south and gusty to around 20 mph, resulting in decent SRH
values (0-1 km of 250 m2/s2). Bottom line, with CIN values increasing
the severe threat is generally winding down, but other convective
parameters are concerning enough to warrant a continued threat for
isolated severe winds through the next several hours.

Precipitable water values of near 1.5 - 2.0 inches will keep the
heavy rain and flooding threat a concern through the overnight hours,
especially as the thunderstorm complex moves through the KC metro.
The ongoing storm activity will continue to be fed by a strong low
level jet, which will continue the storm activity. Will continue to
watch the potential for flooding through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Forecast is still on track for a line of thunderstorms to move
through each terminal over the next several hours. The line will be
approaching from the west/northwest, so KSTJ will be affected
earliest in the forecast period, with KMCI and KMKC shortly
following. The probability for severe weather is marginal at this
point, but these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the
terminals through the late evening and overnight period. The best
window for heavy rain and strong winds will only be a couple hours,
but light rain with occasional/frequent lightning will follow the
main punch and last through the night time hours before clearing out
by early Monday morning. Thereafter models hinting at some MVFR CIGs
through most of the day on Monday before becoming VFR by late
morning/early afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 312358
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
658 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Forecast is still on track for a line of thunderstorms to move
through each terminal over the next several hours. The line will be
approaching from the west/northwest, so KSTJ will be affected
earliest in the forecast period, with KMCI and KMKC shortly
following. The probability for severe weather is marginal at this
point, but these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the
terminals through the late evening and overnight period. The best
window for heavy rain and strong winds will only be a couple hours,
but light rain with occasional/frequent lightning will follow the
main punch and last through the night time hours before clearing out
by early Monday morning. Thereafter models hinting at some MVFR CIGs
through most of the day on Monday before becoming VFR by late
morning/early afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 312358
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
658 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Forecast is still on track for a line of thunderstorms to move
through each terminal over the next several hours. The line will be
approaching from the west/northwest, so KSTJ will be affected
earliest in the forecast period, with KMCI and KMKC shortly
following. The probability for severe weather is marginal at this
point, but these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the
terminals through the late evening and overnight period. The best
window for heavy rain and strong winds will only be a couple hours,
but light rain with occasional/frequent lightning will follow the
main punch and last through the night time hours before clearing out
by early Monday morning. Thereafter models hinting at some MVFR CIGs
through most of the day on Monday before becoming VFR by late
morning/early afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 312057
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
357 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR conditions this afternoon will give way to increasing chances
for showers and storms by  evening as a strong storm system moves
into the area. Right now...initial shwr/storm activity expected to
reach MCI as early as 4z...and STJ as early as 3z. As this moves
in...strong wind gusts may create SQ conditions before strong
convective outflow moves east of area terminals. Shwrs/storms likely
to continue through a good portion of the overnight as low-level jet
increases...and storms continuously redevelop along and north of
thunderstorm outflow. Additional showers and storms possible after
12z...however bulk of activity should be shifting south as main
frontal boundary continues to move through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 9 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 9 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 312057
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
357 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR conditions this afternoon will give way to increasing chances
for showers and storms by  evening as a strong storm system moves
into the area. Right now...initial shwr/storm activity expected to
reach MCI as early as 4z...and STJ as early as 3z. As this moves
in...strong wind gusts may create SQ conditions before strong
convective outflow moves east of area terminals. Shwrs/storms likely
to continue through a good portion of the overnight as low-level jet
increases...and storms continuously redevelop along and north of
thunderstorm outflow. Additional showers and storms possible after
12z...however bulk of activity should be shifting south as main
frontal boundary continues to move through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 9 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 9 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 311731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

In the short term, the main concern will be severe weather chances
late this evening through Monday morning, and again Monday afternoon
as a shortwave trough and associated cold front push through the
region.

A few light showers and isolated storms may drift into northwest MO
this morning from their current position in central KS, but any
precipitation and most cloud cover is expected to diminish by early
afternoon, allowing instability to build across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Up to 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE will spread over the
area this afternoon into the early evening ahead of the approaching
cold front, and a weak cap over southeast NE, southwest IA, and
extreme northwest MO may allow a few very isolated storms to pop up
by late afternoon or early evening in those areas. Coverage of these
storms -- should they develop -- should be low enough to prevent any
significant modification of the mesoscale environment, and weak deep
layer shear values should keep the severe threat low during the
afternoon and early evening period. Significant capping across the
remainder of the CWA should suppress any afternoon/early evening
convection in areas southeast of the MO/KS/NE border to Bethany.

Severe chances will increase after 03z as the low-level jet starts
to crank up and the upper trough approaches, bringing 0-6 km shear
values into the 40 to 50 kt range while MUCAPE remains more than
adequate in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Storms are expected to develop
initially near the cold front in southeast NE and southwest IA, then
will likely form some sort of cold-pool driven complex/MCS that could
dive east southeast across the northern half of the CWA. Any outflow
boundaries that are thrown southward from evening convection also
have the potential to initiate convection, and storm mode could be
initially supercellular before developing into linear segments.
Large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado are possible before
midnight across extreme northwest MO, but as storms become more
linear and move into areas that will be capped throughout the day,
damaging winds will become the much more likely severe threat.

As the early Monday morning hours wear on, flash flooding will
become a concern due to the increasing LLJ, deepening warm cloud
layer, and PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. Multiple rounds of
storms are also possible if the storm complex propagates off the
cold front and redevelopment occurs along the front, and shear
vectors oriented nearly parallel to the front will likely support
training storms. However, if a strong MCS develops, it may move
quickly enough to prevent significant flash flooding, and may also
work over the trailing environment enough to suppress robust storm
development along the main cold front. The primary potential for
flooding will be in areas north of the MO River, but have not issued
a flash flood watch with too many uncertainties in how storms will
evolve tonight.

The cold front will gradually slow on Monday morning, eventually
stalling near the southern CWA border. Deep layer shear values will
remain in the 40 to 50 kt range over the boundary on Monday even as
the LLJ diminishes due to increasing flow aloft. The main shortwave
trough axis will pass over the boundary during the afternoon and
evening hours Monday, supporting another round of storms near the
stationary front; however, their intensity will depend entirely on
how storms evolve on Monday morning and how quickly they clear out
of the area. Should at least some clearing occur by the afternoon,
another round of severe weather will be possible along the front
Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells are possible during the
afternoon, creating a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. By early evening, the shortwave trough
will begin to advance the cold front southward again, transitioning
storm mode to linear segments and pushing storms out of the CWA. For
our forecast area, the severe threat should be ending by 9PM - 12AM
as the front exits to the south.

The front may meander back northward on Tuesday, bringing highs back
into the upper 80s to lower 90s and spreading storm chances back
across the region; however, severe weather is not expected behind
the departing shortwave trough.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The forecast for midweek into the weekend continues to look on
track. The surface boundary that will reside south of the CWA on
Tuesday is expected to retreat northward as a warm front on Wednesday
as heights begin to rise across the region in response to the upper
pattern flattening. Models are fairly consistent in developing
convection Wed morning as the front begins to lift north. Otherwise,
weak upper ridging will take shape over the area by late Wed into
Fri, with H85 temps warming to around 22C. This will result in
afternoon temperatures exceeding seasonal normals, with highs in the
middle 80s to lower 90s each day.

A longwave positively-tilted trough should evolve across the Pacific
NW and Intermountain West by the end of the week. A shortwave trough
is projected to eject along the southern Canadian prairie on Friday
before digging into the northeast CONUS. An associated cold front
will settle over portions of the forecast area, with model spread
suggesting the frontal passage either Friday or Saturday. Likewise,
have increased chances for thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday
as the boundary sags into the CWA. Overall dynamics are not
impressive as strongest shear remains on the cool side of the
boundary due to the upper trough orientation, so overall severe
threat will be low. Temperatures for the weekend will be several
degrees cooler with the passage of the front and anticipated
convective cloud debris, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR conditions this afternoon will give way to increasing chances
for showers and storms by  evening as a strong storm system moves
into the area. Right now...initial shwr/storm activity expected to
reach MCI as early as 4z...and STJ as early as 3z. As this moves
in...strong wind gusts may create SQ conditions before strong
convective outflow moves east of area terminals. Shwrs/storms likely
to continue through a good portion of the overnight as low-level jet
increases...and storms continuously redevelop along and north of
thunderstorm outflow. Additional showers and storms possible after
12z...however bulk of activity should be shifting south as main
frontal boundary continues to move through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32









000
FXUS63 KEAX 311731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

In the short term, the main concern will be severe weather chances
late this evening through Monday morning, and again Monday afternoon
as a shortwave trough and associated cold front push through the
region.

A few light showers and isolated storms may drift into northwest MO
this morning from their current position in central KS, but any
precipitation and most cloud cover is expected to diminish by early
afternoon, allowing instability to build across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Up to 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE will spread over the
area this afternoon into the early evening ahead of the approaching
cold front, and a weak cap over southeast NE, southwest IA, and
extreme northwest MO may allow a few very isolated storms to pop up
by late afternoon or early evening in those areas. Coverage of these
storms -- should they develop -- should be low enough to prevent any
significant modification of the mesoscale environment, and weak deep
layer shear values should keep the severe threat low during the
afternoon and early evening period. Significant capping across the
remainder of the CWA should suppress any afternoon/early evening
convection in areas southeast of the MO/KS/NE border to Bethany.

Severe chances will increase after 03z as the low-level jet starts
to crank up and the upper trough approaches, bringing 0-6 km shear
values into the 40 to 50 kt range while MUCAPE remains more than
adequate in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Storms are expected to develop
initially near the cold front in southeast NE and southwest IA, then
will likely form some sort of cold-pool driven complex/MCS that could
dive east southeast across the northern half of the CWA. Any outflow
boundaries that are thrown southward from evening convection also
have the potential to initiate convection, and storm mode could be
initially supercellular before developing into linear segments.
Large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado are possible before
midnight across extreme northwest MO, but as storms become more
linear and move into areas that will be capped throughout the day,
damaging winds will become the much more likely severe threat.

As the early Monday morning hours wear on, flash flooding will
become a concern due to the increasing LLJ, deepening warm cloud
layer, and PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. Multiple rounds of
storms are also possible if the storm complex propagates off the
cold front and redevelopment occurs along the front, and shear
vectors oriented nearly parallel to the front will likely support
training storms. However, if a strong MCS develops, it may move
quickly enough to prevent significant flash flooding, and may also
work over the trailing environment enough to suppress robust storm
development along the main cold front. The primary potential for
flooding will be in areas north of the MO River, but have not issued
a flash flood watch with too many uncertainties in how storms will
evolve tonight.

The cold front will gradually slow on Monday morning, eventually
stalling near the southern CWA border. Deep layer shear values will
remain in the 40 to 50 kt range over the boundary on Monday even as
the LLJ diminishes due to increasing flow aloft. The main shortwave
trough axis will pass over the boundary during the afternoon and
evening hours Monday, supporting another round of storms near the
stationary front; however, their intensity will depend entirely on
how storms evolve on Monday morning and how quickly they clear out
of the area. Should at least some clearing occur by the afternoon,
another round of severe weather will be possible along the front
Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells are possible during the
afternoon, creating a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. By early evening, the shortwave trough
will begin to advance the cold front southward again, transitioning
storm mode to linear segments and pushing storms out of the CWA. For
our forecast area, the severe threat should be ending by 9PM - 12AM
as the front exits to the south.

The front may meander back northward on Tuesday, bringing highs back
into the upper 80s to lower 90s and spreading storm chances back
across the region; however, severe weather is not expected behind
the departing shortwave trough.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The forecast for midweek into the weekend continues to look on
track. The surface boundary that will reside south of the CWA on
Tuesday is expected to retreat northward as a warm front on Wednesday
as heights begin to rise across the region in response to the upper
pattern flattening. Models are fairly consistent in developing
convection Wed morning as the front begins to lift north. Otherwise,
weak upper ridging will take shape over the area by late Wed into
Fri, with H85 temps warming to around 22C. This will result in
afternoon temperatures exceeding seasonal normals, with highs in the
middle 80s to lower 90s each day.

A longwave positively-tilted trough should evolve across the Pacific
NW and Intermountain West by the end of the week. A shortwave trough
is projected to eject along the southern Canadian prairie on Friday
before digging into the northeast CONUS. An associated cold front
will settle over portions of the forecast area, with model spread
suggesting the frontal passage either Friday or Saturday. Likewise,
have increased chances for thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday
as the boundary sags into the CWA. Overall dynamics are not
impressive as strongest shear remains on the cool side of the
boundary due to the upper trough orientation, so overall severe
threat will be low. Temperatures for the weekend will be several
degrees cooler with the passage of the front and anticipated
convective cloud debris, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR conditions this afternoon will give way to increasing chances
for showers and storms by  evening as a strong storm system moves
into the area. Right now...initial shwr/storm activity expected to
reach MCI as early as 4z...and STJ as early as 3z. As this moves
in...strong wind gusts may create SQ conditions before strong
convective outflow moves east of area terminals. Shwrs/storms likely
to continue through a good portion of the overnight as low-level jet
increases...and storms continuously redevelop along and north of
thunderstorm outflow. Additional showers and storms possible after
12z...however bulk of activity should be shifting south as main
frontal boundary continues to move through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32










000
FXUS63 KEAX 311134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

In the short term, the main concern will be severe weather chances
late this evening through Monday morning, and again Monday afternoon
as a shortwave trough and associated cold front push through the
region.

A few light showers and isolated storms may drift into northwest MO
this morning from their current position in central KS, but any
precipitation and most cloud cover is expected to diminish by early
afternoon, allowing instability to build across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Up to 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE will spread over the
area this afternoon into the early evening ahead of the approaching
cold front, and a weak cap over southeast NE, southwest IA, and
extreme northwest MO may allow a few very isolated storms to pop up
by late afternoon or early evening in those areas. Coverage of these
storms -- should they develop -- should be low enough to prevent any
significant modification of the mesoscale environment, and weak deep
layer shear values should keep the severe threat low during the
afternoon and early evening period. Significant capping across the
remainder of the CWA should suppress any afternoon/early evening
convection in areas southeast of the MO/KS/NE border to Bethany.

Severe chances will increase after 03z as the low-level jet starts
to crank up and the upper trough approaches, bringing 0-6 km shear
values into the 40 to 50 kt range while MUCAPE remains more than
adequate in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Storms are expected to develop
initially near the cold front in southeast NE and southwest IA, then
will likely form some sort of cold-pool driven complex/MCS that could
dive east southeast across the northern half of the CWA. Any outflow
boundaries that are thrown southward from evening convection also
have the potential to initiate convection, and storm mode could be
initially supercellular before developing into linear segments.
Large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado are possible before
midnight across extreme northwest MO, but as storms become more
linear and move into areas that will be capped throughout the day,
damaging winds will become the much more likely severe threat.

As the early Monday morning hours wear on, flash flooding will
become a concern due to the increasing LLJ, deepening warm cloud
layer, and PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. Multiple rounds of
storms are also possible if the storm complex propagates off the
cold front and redevelopment occurs along the front, and shear
vectors oriented nearly parallel to the front will likely support
training storms. However, if a strong MCS develops, it may move
quickly enough to prevent significant flash flooding, and may also
work over the trailing environment enough to suppress robust storm
development along the main cold front. The primary potential for
flooding will be in areas north of the MO River, but have not issued
a flash flood watch with too many uncertainties in how storms will
evolve tonight.

The cold front will gradually slow on Monday morning, eventually
stalling near the southern CWA border. Deep layer shear values will
remain in the 40 to 50 kt range over the boundary on Monday even as
the LLJ diminishes due to increasing flow aloft. The main shortwave
trough axis will pass over the boundary during the afternoon and
evening hours Monday, supporting another round of storms near the
stationary front; however, their intensity will depend entirely on
how storms evolve on Monday morning and how quickly they clear out
of the area. Should at least some clearing occur by the afternoon,
another round of severe weather will be possible along the front
Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells are possible during the
afternoon, creating a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. By early evening, the shortwave trough
will begin to advance the cold front southward again, transitioning
storm mode to linear segments and pushing storms out of the CWA. For
our forecast area, the severe threat should be ending by 9PM - 12AM
as the front exits to the south.

The front may meander back northward on Tuesday, bringing highs back
into the upper 80s to lower 90s and spreading storm chances back
across the region; however, severe weather is not expected behind
the departing shortwave trough.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The forecast for midweek into the weekend continues to look on
track. The surface boundary that will reside south of the CWA on
Tuesday is expected to retreat northward as a warm front on Wednesday
as heights begin to rise across the region in response to the upper
pattern flattening. Models are fairly consistent in developing
convection Wed morning as the front begins to lift north. Otherwise,
weak upper ridging will take shape over the area by late Wed into
Fri, with H85 temps warming to around 22C. This will result in
afternoon temperatures exceeding seasonal normals, with highs in the
middle 80s to lower 90s each day.

A longwave positively-tilted trough should evolve across the Pacific
NW and Intermountain West by the end of the week. A shortwave trough
is projected to eject along the southern Canadian prairie on Friday
before digging into the northeast CONUS. An associated cold front
will settle over portions of the forecast area, with model spread
suggesting the frontal passage either Friday or Saturday. Likewise,
have increased chances for thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday
as the boundary sags into the CWA. Overall dynamics are not
impressive as strongest shear remains on the cool side of the
boundary due to the upper trough orientation, so overall severe
threat will be low. Temperatures for the weekend will be several
degrees cooler with the passage of the front and anticipated
convective cloud debris, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Patchy fog across northeast and eastern MO will dissipate over the
next 1-2 hours, leaving the area VFR through this evening. A few
light showers or an isolated thunderstorm is possible in far NW
Missouri late this morning, but should stay north of all TAF sites.
Scattered to broken cumulus with bases around 5 kft will develop this
afternoon across the region, and winds will be breezy out of the SSW
this afternoon and evening.

Storms are expected to develop across southeast NE, southwest IA,
and extreme northwest MO between 00-03z this evening, and will build
southeast during the overnight and early morning hours. The bulk of
the thunderstorm activity is expected to stay north of the Missouri
River, but storms are possible at all TAF sites between 04z-12z
Monday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

In the short term, the main concern will be severe weather chances
late this evening through Monday morning, and again Monday afternoon
as a shortwave trough and associated cold front push through the
region.

A few light showers and isolated storms may drift into northwest MO
this morning from their current position in central KS, but any
precipitation and most cloud cover is expected to diminish by early
afternoon, allowing instability to build across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Up to 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE will spread over the
area this afternoon into the early evening ahead of the approaching
cold front, and a weak cap over southeast NE, southwest IA, and
extreme northwest MO may allow a few very isolated storms to pop up
by late afternoon or early evening in those areas. Coverage of these
storms -- should they develop -- should be low enough to prevent any
significant modification of the mesoscale environment, and weak deep
layer shear values should keep the severe threat low during the
afternoon and early evening period. Significant capping across the
remainder of the CWA should suppress any afternoon/early evening
convection in areas southeast of the MO/KS/NE border to Bethany.

Severe chances will increase after 03z as the low-level jet starts
to crank up and the upper trough approaches, bringing 0-6 km shear
values into the 40 to 50 kt range while MUCAPE remains more than
adequate in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Storms are expected to develop
initially near the cold front in southeast NE and southwest IA, then
will likely form some sort of cold-pool driven complex/MCS that could
dive east southeast across the northern half of the CWA. Any outflow
boundaries that are thrown southward from evening convection also
have the potential to initiate convection, and storm mode could be
initially supercellular before developing into linear segments.
Large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado are possible before
midnight across extreme northwest MO, but as storms become more
linear and move into areas that will be capped throughout the day,
damaging winds will become the much more likely severe threat.

As the early Monday morning hours wear on, flash flooding will
become a concern due to the increasing LLJ, deepening warm cloud
layer, and PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. Multiple rounds of
storms are also possible if the storm complex propagates off the
cold front and redevelopment occurs along the front, and shear
vectors oriented nearly parallel to the front will likely support
training storms. However, if a strong MCS develops, it may move
quickly enough to prevent significant flash flooding, and may also
work over the trailing environment enough to suppress robust storm
development along the main cold front. The primary potential for
flooding will be in areas north of the MO River, but have not issued
a flash flood watch with too many uncertainties in how storms will
evolve tonight.

The cold front will gradually slow on Monday morning, eventually
stalling near the southern CWA border. Deep layer shear values will
remain in the 40 to 50 kt range over the boundary on Monday even as
the LLJ diminishes due to increasing flow aloft. The main shortwave
trough axis will pass over the boundary during the afternoon and
evening hours Monday, supporting another round of storms near the
stationary front; however, their intensity will depend entirely on
how storms evolve on Monday morning and how quickly they clear out
of the area. Should at least some clearing occur by the afternoon,
another round of severe weather will be possible along the front
Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells are possible during the
afternoon, creating a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. By early evening, the shortwave trough
will begin to advance the cold front southward again, transitioning
storm mode to linear segments and pushing storms out of the CWA. For
our forecast area, the severe threat should be ending by 9PM - 12AM
as the front exits to the south.

The front may meander back northward on Tuesday, bringing highs back
into the upper 80s to lower 90s and spreading storm chances back
across the region; however, severe weather is not expected behind
the departing shortwave trough.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The forecast for midweek into the weekend continues to look on
track. The surface boundary that will reside south of the CWA on
Tuesday is expected to retreat northward as a warm front on Wednesday
as heights begin to rise across the region in response to the upper
pattern flattening. Models are fairly consistent in developing
convection Wed morning as the front begins to lift north. Otherwise,
weak upper ridging will take shape over the area by late Wed into
Fri, with H85 temps warming to around 22C. This will result in
afternoon temperatures exceeding seasonal normals, with highs in the
middle 80s to lower 90s each day.

A longwave positively-tilted trough should evolve across the Pacific
NW and Intermountain West by the end of the week. A shortwave trough
is projected to eject along the southern Canadian prairie on Friday
before digging into the northeast CONUS. An associated cold front
will settle over portions of the forecast area, with model spread
suggesting the frontal passage either Friday or Saturday. Likewise,
have increased chances for thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday
as the boundary sags into the CWA. Overall dynamics are not
impressive as strongest shear remains on the cool side of the
boundary due to the upper trough orientation, so overall severe
threat will be low. Temperatures for the weekend will be several
degrees cooler with the passage of the front and anticipated
convective cloud debris, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Patchy fog across northeast and eastern MO will dissipate over the
next 1-2 hours, leaving the area VFR through this evening. A few
light showers or an isolated thunderstorm is possible in far NW
Missouri late this morning, but should stay north of all TAF sites.
Scattered to broken cumulus with bases around 5 kft will develop this
afternoon across the region, and winds will be breezy out of the SSW
this afternoon and evening.

Storms are expected to develop across southeast NE, southwest IA,
and extreme northwest MO between 00-03z this evening, and will build
southeast during the overnight and early morning hours. The bulk of
the thunderstorm activity is expected to stay north of the Missouri
River, but storms are possible at all TAF sites between 04z-12z
Monday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 310842
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
342 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

In the short term, the main concern will be severe weather chances
late this evening through Monday morning, and again Monday afternoon
as a shortwave trough and associated cold front push through the
region.

A few light showers and isolated storms may drift into northwest MO
this morning from their current position in central KS, but any
precipitation and most cloud cover is expected to diminish by early
afternoon, allowing instability to build across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Up to 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE will spread over the
area this afternoon into the early evening ahead of the approaching
cold front, and a weak cap over southeast NE, southwest IA, and
extreme northwest MO may allow a few very isolated storms to pop up
by late afternoon or early evening in those areas. Coverage of these
storms -- should they develop -- should be low enough to prevent any
significant modification of the mesoscale environment, and weak deep
layer shear values should keep the severe threat low during the
afternoon and early evening period. Significant capping across the
remainder of the CWA should suppress any afternoon/early evening
convection in areas southeast of the MO/KS/NE border to Bethany.

Severe chances will increase after 03z as the low-level jet starts
to crank up and the upper trough approaches, bringing 0-6 km shear
values into the 40 to 50 kt range while MUCAPE remains more than
adequate in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Storms are expected to develop
initially near the cold front in southeast NE and southwest IA, then
will likely form some sort of cold-pool driven complex/MCS that could
dive east southeast across the northern half of the CWA. Any outflow
boundaries that are thrown southward from evening convection also
have the potential to initiate convection, and storm mode could be
initially supercellular before developing into linear segments.
Large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado are possible before
midnight across extreme northwest MO, but as storms become more
linear and move into areas that will be capped throughout the day,
damaging winds will become the much more likely severe threat.

As the early Monday morning hours wear on, flash flooding will
become a concern due to the increasing LLJ, deepening warm cloud
layer, and PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. Multiple rounds of
storms are also possible if the storm complex propagates off the
cold front and redevelopment occurs along the front, and shear
vectors oriented nearly parallel to the front will likely support
training storms. However, if a strong MCS develops, it may move
quickly enough to prevent significant flash flooding, and may also
work over the trailing environment enough to suppress robust storm
development along the main cold front. The primary potential for
flooding will be in areas north of the MO River, but have not issued
a flash flood watch with too many uncertainties in how storms will
evolve tonight.

The cold front will gradually slow on Monday morning, eventually
stalling near the southern CWA border. Deep layer shear values will
remain in the 40 to 50 kt range over the boundary on Monday even as
the LLJ diminishes due to increasing flow aloft. The main shortwave
trough axis will pass over the boundary during the afternoon and
evening hours Monday, supporting another round of storms near the
stationary front; however, their intensity will depend entirely on
how storms evolve on Monday morning and how quickly they clear out
of the area. Should at least some clearing occur by the afternoon,
another round of severe weather will be possible along the front
Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells are possible during the
afternoon, creating a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. By early evening, the shortwave trough
will begin to advance the cold front southward again, transitioning
storm mode to linear segments and pushing storms out of the CWA. For
our forecast area, the severe threat should be ending by 9PM - 12AM
as the front exits to the south.

The front may meander back northward on Tuesday, bringing highs back
into the upper 80s to lower 90s and spreading storm chances back
across the region; however, severe weather is not expected behind
the departing shortwave trough.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The forecast for midweek into the weekend continues to look on
track. The surface boundary that will reside south of the CWA on
Tuesday is expected to retreat northward as a warm front on Wednesday
as heights begin to rise across the region in response to the upper
pattern flattening. Models are fairly consistent in developing
convection Wed morning as the front begins to lift north. Otherwise,
weak upper ridging will take shape over the area by late Wed into
Fri, with H85 temps warming to around 22C. This will result in
afternoon temperatures exceeding seasonal normals, with highs in the
middle 80s to lower 90s each day.

A longwave positively-tilted trough should evolve across the Pacific
NW and Intermountain West by the end of the week. A shortwave trough
is projected to eject along the southern Canadian prairie on Friday
before digging into the northeast CONUS. An associated cold front
will settle over portions of the forecast area, with model spread
suggesting the frontal passage either Friday or Saturday. Likewise,
have increased chances for thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday
as the boundary sags into the CWA. Overall dynamics are not
impressive as strongest shear remains on the cool side of the
boundary due to the upper trough orientation, so overall severe
threat will be low. Temperatures for the weekend will be several
degrees cooler with the passage of the front and anticipated
convective cloud debris, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Patchy fog is expected mainly across portions of northeast and
eastern MO through sunrise this morning, but is not expected to
significantly reduce visibility at the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are anticipated through much of the forecast period. A few
isolated showers and storms are possible late Sunday evening across
northwest MO, then will become more intense and widespread after 06z.
All TAF sites will likely be impacted by thunderstorms shortly after
the end of the TAF period Sunday night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 310842
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
342 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

In the short term, the main concern will be severe weather chances
late this evening through Monday morning, and again Monday afternoon
as a shortwave trough and associated cold front push through the
region.

A few light showers and isolated storms may drift into northwest MO
this morning from their current position in central KS, but any
precipitation and most cloud cover is expected to diminish by early
afternoon, allowing instability to build across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Up to 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE will spread over the
area this afternoon into the early evening ahead of the approaching
cold front, and a weak cap over southeast NE, southwest IA, and
extreme northwest MO may allow a few very isolated storms to pop up
by late afternoon or early evening in those areas. Coverage of these
storms -- should they develop -- should be low enough to prevent any
significant modification of the mesoscale environment, and weak deep
layer shear values should keep the severe threat low during the
afternoon and early evening period. Significant capping across the
remainder of the CWA should suppress any afternoon/early evening
convection in areas southeast of the MO/KS/NE border to Bethany.

Severe chances will increase after 03z as the low-level jet starts
to crank up and the upper trough approaches, bringing 0-6 km shear
values into the 40 to 50 kt range while MUCAPE remains more than
adequate in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Storms are expected to develop
initially near the cold front in southeast NE and southwest IA, then
will likely form some sort of cold-pool driven complex/MCS that could
dive east southeast across the northern half of the CWA. Any outflow
boundaries that are thrown southward from evening convection also
have the potential to initiate convection, and storm mode could be
initially supercellular before developing into linear segments.
Large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado are possible before
midnight across extreme northwest MO, but as storms become more
linear and move into areas that will be capped throughout the day,
damaging winds will become the much more likely severe threat.

As the early Monday morning hours wear on, flash flooding will
become a concern due to the increasing LLJ, deepening warm cloud
layer, and PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. Multiple rounds of
storms are also possible if the storm complex propagates off the
cold front and redevelopment occurs along the front, and shear
vectors oriented nearly parallel to the front will likely support
training storms. However, if a strong MCS develops, it may move
quickly enough to prevent significant flash flooding, and may also
work over the trailing environment enough to suppress robust storm
development along the main cold front. The primary potential for
flooding will be in areas north of the MO River, but have not issued
a flash flood watch with too many uncertainties in how storms will
evolve tonight.

The cold front will gradually slow on Monday morning, eventually
stalling near the southern CWA border. Deep layer shear values will
remain in the 40 to 50 kt range over the boundary on Monday even as
the LLJ diminishes due to increasing flow aloft. The main shortwave
trough axis will pass over the boundary during the afternoon and
evening hours Monday, supporting another round of storms near the
stationary front; however, their intensity will depend entirely on
how storms evolve on Monday morning and how quickly they clear out
of the area. Should at least some clearing occur by the afternoon,
another round of severe weather will be possible along the front
Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells are possible during the
afternoon, creating a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps an isolated tornado. By early evening, the shortwave trough
will begin to advance the cold front southward again, transitioning
storm mode to linear segments and pushing storms out of the CWA. For
our forecast area, the severe threat should be ending by 9PM - 12AM
as the front exits to the south.

The front may meander back northward on Tuesday, bringing highs back
into the upper 80s to lower 90s and spreading storm chances back
across the region; however, severe weather is not expected behind
the departing shortwave trough.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The forecast for midweek into the weekend continues to look on
track. The surface boundary that will reside south of the CWA on
Tuesday is expected to retreat northward as a warm front on Wednesday
as heights begin to rise across the region in response to the upper
pattern flattening. Models are fairly consistent in developing
convection Wed morning as the front begins to lift north. Otherwise,
weak upper ridging will take shape over the area by late Wed into
Fri, with H85 temps warming to around 22C. This will result in
afternoon temperatures exceeding seasonal normals, with highs in the
middle 80s to lower 90s each day.

A longwave positively-tilted trough should evolve across the Pacific
NW and Intermountain West by the end of the week. A shortwave trough
is projected to eject along the southern Canadian prairie on Friday
before digging into the northeast CONUS. An associated cold front
will settle over portions of the forecast area, with model spread
suggesting the frontal passage either Friday or Saturday. Likewise,
have increased chances for thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday
as the boundary sags into the CWA. Overall dynamics are not
impressive as strongest shear remains on the cool side of the
boundary due to the upper trough orientation, so overall severe
threat will be low. Temperatures for the weekend will be several
degrees cooler with the passage of the front and anticipated
convective cloud debris, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Patchy fog is expected mainly across portions of northeast and
eastern MO through sunrise this morning, but is not expected to
significantly reduce visibility at the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are anticipated through much of the forecast period. A few
isolated showers and storms are possible late Sunday evening across
northwest MO, then will become more intense and widespread after 06z.
All TAF sites will likely be impacted by thunderstorms shortly after
the end of the TAF period Sunday night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

All quiet this afternoon as much of the fcst area now resides in a
post frontal airmass following this morning/s weak cold front passage.
Latest visible satellite images show developing/ongoing convection
just east of the CWA border this afternoon as convergence along
lingering boundary combines with weak destabilization and upper
shortwave forcing from a wave now found over eastern IA. Latest look
on SPC meso page indicates best deep layered convergence remains just
east of our area but will continue with a slgt chc mention across
our far eastern zones just in case any activity does develop a little
further west than expected. Any convection that does develop will
quickly erode by early evening with loss of daytime heating. Through
the overnight...expect starlit skies with lows falling into the
middle to upper 60s...with a few low 70s possible in the immediate KC
metro.

Fcst becomes much more interesting as we head into the latter stages
of the weekend...but not before another beautiful and dry Sunday
across the lower Missouri Rvr Vly. 850 temps ranging from 16-19C this
afternoon will continue warming a few degrees on Sunday as southerly
flow again returns to the area. This should support high temps
climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most
locations...under partly to mostly cloudy skies as upper-level
moisture begins to approach from the central Plains. While we enjoy
the nice day down here...areas to our north will be under the gun for
a pretty decent severe weather event as a long advertised upper
trough and associated cold front track east from the central Plains
into the upper Miss Rvr Vly. Fortunately for us though...an impacts
from this storm system will hold off until later Sun ngt/early Mon.

As has been alluded to in recent days...concerns by Sunday night
quickly shift to the severe situation to our north on Sunday. Fcst
models remain in decent agreement that isolated convection across
eastern NE and western IA will begin congealing into a developing MCS
during the early overnight hrs before gradually spreading south
towards northern MO/eastern KS during the overnight period. Out ahead
of this feature...moderate levels of instability will be in place
with MLCAPE values expected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg. As front
continues to head south during the early overnight...preceding
airmass will be characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates as an
elevated mixed layer plume advects east through the day on Sunday.
Quick look at high-res models supports convection extending south
into our northern zones after 6z...as NE/IA afternoon convection
spreads a cold pool south along/ahead of the southward sagging cold
front. Models today seem to be a little further south with the
mid-level speed max associated with the main trough axis...plus with
a low-level jet expected to increase to near 50 kts during the
overnight...plenty of shear looks to be available for organized
severe wx across northern portions of the fcst area. Convective mode
definitely difficult to pin down as bulk shear magnitudes definitely
support the possibilities of isolated cells ahead of the cold
pool...while overall bulk shear vector orientation would suggest a
linear morphology. In any event...enough directional shear and
instability looks to be in place to support damaging winds as the
main threats...while an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
due to enhanced vorticity/cold pool interactions resulting with such
strong winds right off the deck. Later model runs will certainly be
interesting and if cold pool actually spreads out over our area
early Monday morning...the severe threat could quickly switch over to
hydro as the low-level jet continues to pump moisture northward.

Front to continue sagging south across the region on Monday with
continued chances for shwrs and storms. Severe threat to continue
right through the day as upper trough and associated mid-level speed
max remain positioned over the area. Front finally looks to clear the
area Monday night/early Tuesday as high pressure slowly builds into
the central Plains. This should allow for drier weather for Thursday
and Friday before precip chances increase late in the period as the
next front/upper trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Patchy fog is expected mainly across portions of northeast and
eastern MO through sunrise this morning, but is not expected to
significantly reduce visibility at the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are anticipated through much of the forecast period. A few
isolated showers and storms are possible late Sunday evening across
northwest MO, then will become more intense and widespread after 06z.
All TAF sites will likely be impacted by thunderstorms shortly after
the end of the TAF period Sunday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 310530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

All quiet this afternoon as much of the fcst area now resides in a
post frontal airmass following this morning/s weak cold front passage.
Latest visible satellite images show developing/ongoing convection
just east of the CWA border this afternoon as convergence along
lingering boundary combines with weak destabilization and upper
shortwave forcing from a wave now found over eastern IA. Latest look
on SPC meso page indicates best deep layered convergence remains just
east of our area but will continue with a slgt chc mention across
our far eastern zones just in case any activity does develop a little
further west than expected. Any convection that does develop will
quickly erode by early evening with loss of daytime heating. Through
the overnight...expect starlit skies with lows falling into the
middle to upper 60s...with a few low 70s possible in the immediate KC
metro.

Fcst becomes much more interesting as we head into the latter stages
of the weekend...but not before another beautiful and dry Sunday
across the lower Missouri Rvr Vly. 850 temps ranging from 16-19C this
afternoon will continue warming a few degrees on Sunday as southerly
flow again returns to the area. This should support high temps
climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most
locations...under partly to mostly cloudy skies as upper-level
moisture begins to approach from the central Plains. While we enjoy
the nice day down here...areas to our north will be under the gun for
a pretty decent severe weather event as a long advertised upper
trough and associated cold front track east from the central Plains
into the upper Miss Rvr Vly. Fortunately for us though...an impacts
from this storm system will hold off until later Sun ngt/early Mon.

As has been alluded to in recent days...concerns by Sunday night
quickly shift to the severe situation to our north on Sunday. Fcst
models remain in decent agreement that isolated convection across
eastern NE and western IA will begin congealing into a developing MCS
during the early overnight hrs before gradually spreading south
towards northern MO/eastern KS during the overnight period. Out ahead
of this feature...moderate levels of instability will be in place
with MLCAPE values expected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg. As front
continues to head south during the early overnight...preceding
airmass will be characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates as an
elevated mixed layer plume advects east through the day on Sunday.
Quick look at high-res models supports convection extending south
into our northern zones after 6z...as NE/IA afternoon convection
spreads a cold pool south along/ahead of the southward sagging cold
front. Models today seem to be a little further south with the
mid-level speed max associated with the main trough axis...plus with
a low-level jet expected to increase to near 50 kts during the
overnight...plenty of shear looks to be available for organized
severe wx across northern portions of the fcst area. Convective mode
definitely difficult to pin down as bulk shear magnitudes definitely
support the possibilities of isolated cells ahead of the cold
pool...while overall bulk shear vector orientation would suggest a
linear morphology. In any event...enough directional shear and
instability looks to be in place to support damaging winds as the
main threats...while an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
due to enhanced vorticity/cold pool interactions resulting with such
strong winds right off the deck. Later model runs will certainly be
interesting and if cold pool actually spreads out over our area
early Monday morning...the severe threat could quickly switch over to
hydro as the low-level jet continues to pump moisture northward.

Front to continue sagging south across the region on Monday with
continued chances for shwrs and storms. Severe threat to continue
right through the day as upper trough and associated mid-level speed
max remain positioned over the area. Front finally looks to clear the
area Monday night/early Tuesday as high pressure slowly builds into
the central Plains. This should allow for drier weather for Thursday
and Friday before precip chances increase late in the period as the
next front/upper trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Patchy fog is expected mainly across portions of northeast and
eastern MO through sunrise this morning, but is not expected to
significantly reduce visibility at the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are anticipated through much of the forecast period. A few
isolated showers and storms are possible late Sunday evening across
northwest MO, then will become more intense and widespread after 06z.
All TAF sites will likely be impacted by thunderstorms shortly after
the end of the TAF period Sunday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

All quiet this afternoon as much of the fcst area now resides in a
post frontal airmass following this morning/s weak cold front passage.
Latest visible satellite images show developing/ongoing convection
just east of the CWA border this afternoon as convergence along
lingering boundary combines with weak destabilization and upper
shortwave forcing from a wave now found over eastern IA. Latest look
on SPC meso page indicates best deep layered convergence remains just
east of our area but will continue with a slgt chc mention across
our far eastern zones just in case any activity does develop a little
further west than expected. Any convection that does develop will
quickly erode by early evening with loss of daytime heating. Through
the overnight...expect starlit skies with lows falling into the
middle to upper 60s...with a few low 70s possible in the immediate KC
metro.

Fcst becomes much more interesting as we head into the latter stages
of the weekend...but not before another beautiful and dry Sunday
across the lower Missouri Rvr Vly. 850 temps ranging from 16-19C this
afternoon will continue warming a few degrees on Sunday as southerly
flow again returns to the area. This should support high temps
climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most
locations...under partly to mostly cloudy skies as upper-level
moisture begins to approach from the central Plains. While we enjoy
the nice day down here...areas to our north will be under the gun for
a pretty decent severe weather event as a long advertised upper
trough and associated cold front track east from the central Plains
into the upper Miss Rvr Vly. Fortunately for us though...an impacts
from this storm system will hold off until later Sun ngt/early Mon.

As has been alluded to in recent days...concerns by Sunday night
quickly shift to the severe situation to our north on Sunday. Fcst
models remain in decent agreement that isolated convection across
eastern NE and western IA will begin congealing into a developing MCS
during the early overnight hrs before gradually spreading south
towards northern MO/eastern KS during the overnight period. Out ahead
of this feature...moderate levels of instability will be in place
with MLCAPE values expected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg. As front
continues to head south during the early overnight...preceding
airmass will be characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates as an
elevated mixed layer plume advects east through the day on Sunday.
Quick look at high-res models supports convection extending south
into our northern zones after 6z...as NE/IA afternoon convection
spreads a cold pool south along/ahead of the southward sagging cold
front. Models today seem to be a little further south with the
mid-level speed max associated with the main trough axis...plus with
a low-level jet expected to increase to near 50 kts during the
overnight...plenty of shear looks to be available for organized
severe wx across northern portions of the fcst area. Convective mode
definitely difficult to pin down as bulk shear magnitudes definitely
support the possibilities of isolated cells ahead of the cold
pool...while overall bulk shear vector orientation would suggest a
linear morphology. In any event...enough directional shear and
instability looks to be in place to support damaging winds as the
main threats...while an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
due to enhanced vorticity/cold pool interactions resulting with such
strong winds right off the deck. Later model runs will certainly be
interesting and if cold pool actually spreads out over our area
early Monday morning...the severe threat could quickly switch over to
hydro as the low-level jet continues to pump moisture northward.

Front to continue sagging south across the region on Monday with
continued chances for shwrs and storms. Severe threat to continue
right through the day as upper trough and associated mid-level speed
max remain positioned over the area. Front finally looks to clear the
area Monday night/early Tuesday as high pressure slowly builds into
the central Plains. This should allow for drier weather for Thursday
and Friday before precip chances increase late in the period as the
next front/upper trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected for much, if not all, of the next 24
hours. Surface moisture will likely be too shallow for much haze
Sunday morning outside the KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, southerly winds
will increase in speed and gustiness Sunday ahead of a cold front
that will wash out across the region Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

All quiet this afternoon as much of the fcst area now resides in a
post frontal airmass following this morning/s weak cold front passage.
Latest visible satellite images show developing/ongoing convection
just east of the CWA border this afternoon as convergence along
lingering boundary combines with weak destabilization and upper
shortwave forcing from a wave now found over eastern IA. Latest look
on SPC meso page indicates best deep layered convergence remains just
east of our area but will continue with a slgt chc mention across
our far eastern zones just in case any activity does develop a little
further west than expected. Any convection that does develop will
quickly erode by early evening with loss of daytime heating. Through
the overnight...expect starlit skies with lows falling into the
middle to upper 60s...with a few low 70s possible in the immediate KC
metro.

Fcst becomes much more interesting as we head into the latter stages
of the weekend...but not before another beautiful and dry Sunday
across the lower Missouri Rvr Vly. 850 temps ranging from 16-19C this
afternoon will continue warming a few degrees on Sunday as southerly
flow again returns to the area. This should support high temps
climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most
locations...under partly to mostly cloudy skies as upper-level
moisture begins to approach from the central Plains. While we enjoy
the nice day down here...areas to our north will be under the gun for
a pretty decent severe weather event as a long advertised upper
trough and associated cold front track east from the central Plains
into the upper Miss Rvr Vly. Fortunately for us though...an impacts
from this storm system will hold off until later Sun ngt/early Mon.

As has been alluded to in recent days...concerns by Sunday night
quickly shift to the severe situation to our north on Sunday. Fcst
models remain in decent agreement that isolated convection across
eastern NE and western IA will begin congealing into a developing MCS
during the early overnight hrs before gradually spreading south
towards northern MO/eastern KS during the overnight period. Out ahead
of this feature...moderate levels of instability will be in place
with MLCAPE values expected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg. As front
continues to head south during the early overnight...preceding
airmass will be characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates as an
elevated mixed layer plume advects east through the day on Sunday.
Quick look at high-res models supports convection extending south
into our northern zones after 6z...as NE/IA afternoon convection
spreads a cold pool south along/ahead of the southward sagging cold
front. Models today seem to be a little further south with the
mid-level speed max associated with the main trough axis...plus with
a low-level jet expected to increase to near 50 kts during the
overnight...plenty of shear looks to be available for organized
severe wx across northern portions of the fcst area. Convective mode
definitely difficult to pin down as bulk shear magnitudes definitely
support the possibilities of isolated cells ahead of the cold
pool...while overall bulk shear vector orientation would suggest a
linear morphology. In any event...enough directional shear and
instability looks to be in place to support damaging winds as the
main threats...while an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
due to enhanced vorticity/cold pool interactions resulting with such
strong winds right off the deck. Later model runs will certainly be
interesting and if cold pool actually spreads out over our area
early Monday morning...the severe threat could quickly switch over to
hydro as the low-level jet continues to pump moisture northward.

Front to continue sagging south across the region on Monday with
continued chances for shwrs and storms. Severe threat to continue
right through the day as upper trough and associated mid-level speed
max remain positioned over the area. Front finally looks to clear the
area Monday night/early Tuesday as high pressure slowly builds into
the central Plains. This should allow for drier weather for Thursday
and Friday before precip chances increase late in the period as the
next front/upper trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected for much, if not all, of the next 24
hours. Surface moisture will likely be too shallow for much haze
Sunday morning outside the KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, southerly winds
will increase in speed and gustiness Sunday ahead of a cold front
that will wash out across the region Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 302106
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

All quiet this afternoon as much of the fcst area now resides in a
post frontal airmass following this morning/s weak cold front passage.
Latest visible satellite images show developing/ongoing convection
just east of the CWA border this afternoon as convergence along
lingering boundary combines with weak destabilization and upper
shortwave forcing from a wave now found over eastern IA. Latest look
on SPC meso page indicates best deep layered convergence remains just
east of our area but will continue with a slgt chc mention across
our far eastern zones just in case any activity does develop a little
further west than expected. Any convection that does develop will
quickly erode by early evening with loss of daytime heating. Through
the overnight...expect starlit skies with lows falling into the
middle to upper 60s...with a few low 70s possible in the immediate KC
metro.

Fcst becomes much more interesting as we head into the latter stages
of the weekend...but not before another beautiful and dry Sunday
across the lower Missouri Rvr Vly. 850 temps ranging from 16-19C this
afternoon will continue warming a few degrees on Sunday as southerly
flow again returns to the area. This should support high temps
climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most
locations...under partly to mostly cloudy skies as upper-level
moisture begins to approach from the central Plains. While we enjoy
the nice day down here...areas to our north will be under the gun for
a pretty decent severe weather event as a long advertised upper
trough and associated cold front track east from the central Plains
into the upper Miss Rvr Vly. Fortunately for us though...an impacts
from this storm system will hold off until later Sun ngt/early Mon.

As has been alluded to in recent days...concerns by Sunday night
quickly shift to the severe situation to our north on Sunday. Fcst
models remain in decent agreement that isolated convection across
eastern NE and western IA will begin congealing into a developing MCS
during the early overnight hrs before gradually spreading south
towards northern MO/eastern KS during the overnight period. Out ahead
of this feature...moderate levels of instability will be in place
with MLCAPE values expected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg. As front
continues to head south during the early overnight...preceding
airmass will be characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates as an
elevated mixed layer plume advects east through the day on Sunday.
Quick look at high-res models supports convection extending south
into our northern zones after 6z...as NE/IA afternoon convection
spreads a cold pool south along/ahead of the southward sagging cold
front. Models today seem to be a little further south with the
mid-level speed max associated with the main trough axis...plus with
a low-level jet expected to increase to near 50 kts during the
overnight...plenty of shear looks to be available for organized
severe wx across northern portions of the fcst area. Convective mode
definately difficult to pin down as bulk shear magnitudes definately
support the possibilities of isolated cells ahead of the cold
pool...while overall bulk shear vector orientation would suggest a
linear morphology. In any event...enough directional shear and
instability looks to be in place to support damaging winds as the
main threats...while an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
due to enhanced vorticity/cold pool interactions resulting with such
strong winds right off the deck. Later model runs will certainly be
interesting and if cold pool actually spreads out over our area
early Monday morning...the severe threat could quickly switch over to
hydro as the low-level jet continues to pump moisture northward.

Front to continue sagging south across the region on Monday with
continued chances for shwrs and storms. Severe threat to continue
right through the day as upper trough and associated mid-level speed
max remain positioned over the area. Front finally looks to clear the
area Monday night/early Tuesday as high pressure slowly builds into
the central Plains. This should allow for drier weather for Thursday
and Friday before precip chances increase late in the period as the
next front/upper trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Outside chance for
possible fog formation during the predawn hrs but overall confidence
is to low to include with current update. Weak northwest winds today will
shift to the southeast overnight before increasing between 10-15 kts
by late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 302106
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

All quiet this afternoon as much of the fcst area now resides in a
post frontal airmass following this morning/s weak cold front passage.
Latest visible satellite images show developing/ongoing convection
just east of the CWA border this afternoon as convergence along
lingering boundary combines with weak destabilization and upper
shortwave forcing from a wave now found over eastern IA. Latest look
on SPC meso page indicates best deep layered convergence remains just
east of our area but will continue with a slgt chc mention across
our far eastern zones just in case any activity does develop a little
further west than expected. Any convection that does develop will
quickly erode by early evening with loss of daytime heating. Through
the overnight...expect starlit skies with lows falling into the
middle to upper 60s...with a few low 70s possible in the immediate KC
metro.

Fcst becomes much more interesting as we head into the latter stages
of the weekend...but not before another beautiful and dry Sunday
across the lower Missouri Rvr Vly. 850 temps ranging from 16-19C this
afternoon will continue warming a few degrees on Sunday as southerly
flow again returns to the area. This should support high temps
climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most
locations...under partly to mostly cloudy skies as upper-level
moisture begins to approach from the central Plains. While we enjoy
the nice day down here...areas to our north will be under the gun for
a pretty decent severe weather event as a long advertised upper
trough and associated cold front track east from the central Plains
into the upper Miss Rvr Vly. Fortunately for us though...an impacts
from this storm system will hold off until later Sun ngt/early Mon.

As has been alluded to in recent days...concerns by Sunday night
quickly shift to the severe situation to our north on Sunday. Fcst
models remain in decent agreement that isolated convection across
eastern NE and western IA will begin congealing into a developing MCS
during the early overnight hrs before gradually spreading south
towards northern MO/eastern KS during the overnight period. Out ahead
of this feature...moderate levels of instability will be in place
with MLCAPE values expected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg. As front
continues to head south during the early overnight...preceding
airmass will be characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates as an
elevated mixed layer plume advects east through the day on Sunday.
Quick look at high-res models supports convection extending south
into our northern zones after 6z...as NE/IA afternoon convection
spreads a cold pool south along/ahead of the southward sagging cold
front. Models today seem to be a little further south with the
mid-level speed max associated with the main trough axis...plus with
a low-level jet expected to increase to near 50 kts during the
overnight...plenty of shear looks to be available for organized
severe wx across northern portions of the fcst area. Convective mode
definately difficult to pin down as bulk shear magnitudes definately
support the possibilities of isolated cells ahead of the cold
pool...while overall bulk shear vector orientation would suggest a
linear morphology. In any event...enough directional shear and
instability looks to be in place to support damaging winds as the
main threats...while an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
due to enhanced vorticity/cold pool interactions resulting with such
strong winds right off the deck. Later model runs will certainly be
interesting and if cold pool actually spreads out over our area
early Monday morning...the severe threat could quickly switch over to
hydro as the low-level jet continues to pump moisture northward.

Front to continue sagging south across the region on Monday with
continued chances for shwrs and storms. Severe threat to continue
right through the day as upper trough and associated mid-level speed
max remain positioned over the area. Front finally looks to clear the
area Monday night/early Tuesday as high pressure slowly builds into
the central Plains. This should allow for drier weather for Thursday
and Friday before precip chances increase late in the period as the
next front/upper trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Outside chance for
possible fog formation during the predawn hrs but overall confidence
is to low to include with current update. Weak northwest winds today will
shift to the southeast overnight before increasing between 10-15 kts
by late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301740
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Outside chance for
possible fog formation during the predawn hrs but overall confidence
is to low to include with current update. Weak northwest winds today will
shift to the southeast overnight before increasing between 10-15 kts
by late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 301740
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Outside chance for
possible fog formation during the predawn hrs but overall confidence
is to low to include with current update. Weak northwest winds today will
shift to the southeast overnight before increasing between 10-15 kts
by late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Patchy fog is possible over the next 1-2 hours in portions of far
northern MO, but is not expected to significantly reduce visibilities
at any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, skies will be mainly clear today
and north northwest winds will become light and variable this
evening, before acquiring a southeasterly direction tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 301126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Patchy fog is possible over the next 1-2 hours in portions of far
northern MO, but is not expected to significantly reduce visibilities
at any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, skies will be mainly clear today
and north northwest winds will become light and variable this
evening, before acquiring a southeasterly direction tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







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