Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KEAX 270525
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1125 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Tonight: Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and SREF probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: With the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.

Extended: An upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Will see a gradual
turning of the winds through noon on Tuesday from the northwest to
the east, and ultimately to the southeast. Fog development is
possible at KSTJ overnight, though not anticipating anything below
MVFR visibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262307
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
507 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Tonight: Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and SREF probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: With the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.

Extended: An upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Will see a
gradual turning of the winds from the NW to E and ultimately out of
the SE by noon on Tuesday. Some models are hinting at the development
of early morning fog. This looks to affect areas mostly to the east
of the terminals, but will monitor the developing setup and adjust
forecast if necessary for the 06Z issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Tonight: Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and SREF probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: With the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.

Extended: An upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR expected to continue. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are
expected through mid-afternoon before wind speeds relax prior to
sunset. Wind direction will gradually veer with time. Fog potential
looks to reside well to the north and east of TAF sites overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Tonight: Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and SREF probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: With the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.

Extended: An upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR expected to continue. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are
expected through mid-afternoon before wind speeds relax prior to
sunset. Wind direction will gradually veer with time. Fog potential
looks to reside well to the north and east of TAF sites overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1119 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR expected to continue. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are
expected through mid-afternoon before wind speeds relax prior to
sunset. Wind direction will gradually veer with time. Fog potential
looks to reside well to the north and east of TAF sites overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1119 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR expected to continue. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are
expected through mid-afternoon before wind speeds relax prior to
sunset. Wind direction will gradually veer with time. Fog potential
looks to reside well to the north and east of TAF sites overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
513 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 513 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with the main concern for
aviators (other than a record snow storm along the east coast) will
be gusty and veering winds today. Winds this morning are light out of
the SW however they will pick up by late morning out of the WSW
(except at STJ where winds will be out of the W) around 10-15kts with
gusts to around 20kts. This afternoon a cold front will move through
the terminals and winds will veer to the NW btn 10-15kts with gusts
to around 20kts. Winds will subside this evening, while veering to
the N btn 5-10kts. Otrw...expect just sct high cirrus clouds today
before skies clr tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260906
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
306 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Low cloud deck is eroding from west to east and will leave VFR for
the rest of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260906
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
306 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Low cloud deck is eroding from west to east and will leave VFR for
the rest of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260536
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Low cloud deck is eroding from west to east and will leave VFR for
the rest of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Back edge of clouds will be slow to make it into wrn MO this evening,
but expect all ceilings across the KC terminals to rise above 2000 ft
over the next hour or two. Ceilings will remain below this level
through midnight or so for the IRK and DMO areas.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Back edge of clouds will be slow to make it into wrn MO this evening,
but expect all ceilings across the KC terminals to rise above 2000 ft
over the next hour or two. Ceilings will remain below this level
through midnight or so for the IRK and DMO areas.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251711
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251711
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR cigs slowly working south over area terminals this morning.
Expect heights to continue decreasing below fuel alternate mins before
holding steady for much of the day. Right now...currently not
anticipating values falling below IFR thresholds however trends will
need to be monitored. The other main story will be strong northerly
winds with gusts as high as 35 kts possible today before winds calm
by early evening. Overnight...VFR conditions to return as high
pressure allows low cigs to gradually scatter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR cigs slowly working south over area terminals this morning.
Expect heights to continue decreasing below fuel alternate mins before
holding steady for much of the day. Right now...currently not
anticipating values falling below IFR thresholds however trends will
need to be monitored. The other main story will be strong northerly
winds with gusts as high as 35 kts possible today before winds calm
by early evening. Overnight...VFR conditions to return as high
pressure allows low cigs to gradually scatter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250923
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable as compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after sunrise
as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain moving through the region will taper off over the
next few hours. Ceilings and visibilities remain well into VFR so the
only significant impacts will be runway wetting. A lull is expected
later tonight followed by another round of lighter rain Sunday
morning, especially across northern and northeast MO. Could see a few
snowflakes Sunday afternoon toward IRK. Bigger concern will be winds
which could gust higher than 30kts at times Sunday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250923
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable as compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after sunrise
as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain moving through the region will taper off over the
next few hours. Ceilings and visibilities remain well into VFR so the
only significant impacts will be runway wetting. A lull is expected
later tonight followed by another round of lighter rain Sunday
morning, especially across northern and northeast MO. Could see a few
snowflakes Sunday afternoon toward IRK. Bigger concern will be winds
which could gust higher than 30kts at times Sunday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250537
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain is coming in a bit heavier than previously
thought and has been able to penetrate dry air at the surface. Still,
upstream observations indicate only one or two hundredths of an inch
of rain will fall from this activity, if that. Could see light rain
or sprinkles make it as far east as central MO later this evening.
Temperatures further upstream across Nebraska and the Dakotas are
warmer than many models had indicated. Near-term models such as the
RAP and HRRR seem to have a better grasp on this, so these were used
to update temperatures overnight and into Sunday morning which do not
appear as supportive of snow over northern MO. Still could see a few
flakes across these areas especially after 10 AM or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain moving through the region will taper off over the
next few hours. Ceilings and visibilities remain well into VFR so the
only significant impacts will be runway wetting. A lull is expected
later tonight followed by another round of lighter rain Sunday
morning, especially across northern and northeast MO. Could see a few
snowflakes Sunday afternoon toward IRK. Bigger concern will be winds
which could gust higher than 30kts at times Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250537
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain is coming in a bit heavier than previously
thought and has been able to penetrate dry air at the surface. Still,
upstream observations indicate only one or two hundredths of an inch
of rain will fall from this activity, if that. Could see light rain
or sprinkles make it as far east as central MO later this evening.
Temperatures further upstream across Nebraska and the Dakotas are
warmer than many models had indicated. Near-term models such as the
RAP and HRRR seem to have a better grasp on this, so these were used
to update temperatures overnight and into Sunday morning which do not
appear as supportive of snow over northern MO. Still could see a few
flakes across these areas especially after 10 AM or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain moving through the region will taper off over the
next few hours. Ceilings and visibilities remain well into VFR so the
only significant impacts will be runway wetting. A lull is expected
later tonight followed by another round of lighter rain Sunday
morning, especially across northern and northeast MO. Could see a few
snowflakes Sunday afternoon toward IRK. Bigger concern will be winds
which could gust higher than 30kts at times Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250231
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
831 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain is coming in a bit heavier than previously
thought and has been able to penetrate dry air at the surface. Still,
upstream observations indicate only one or two hundredths of an inch
of rain will fall from this activity, if that. Could see light rain
or sprinkles make it as far east as central MO later this evening.
Temperatures further upstream across Nebraska and the Dakotas are
warmer than many models had indicated. Near-term models such as the
RAP and HRRR seem to have a better grasp on this, so these were used
to update temperatures overnight and into Sunday morning which do not
appear as supportive of snow over northern MO. Still could see a few
flakes across these areas especially after 10 AM or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Many radar returns over KS/NE are not reaching the ground, and light
showers may not make it into the KC area until after sunrise. Even
then, activity should be scattered and light with few impacts to
airport operations. Any precipitation that makes it as far south and
west as KC is expected to be all rain, with perhaps some snow mixed
in further north toward STJ and IRK.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250231
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
831 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain is coming in a bit heavier than previously
thought and has been able to penetrate dry air at the surface. Still,
upstream observations indicate only one or two hundredths of an inch
of rain will fall from this activity, if that. Could see light rain
or sprinkles make it as far east as central MO later this evening.
Temperatures further upstream across Nebraska and the Dakotas are
warmer than many models had indicated. Near-term models such as the
RAP and HRRR seem to have a better grasp on this, so these were used
to update temperatures overnight and into Sunday morning which do not
appear as supportive of snow over northern MO. Still could see a few
flakes across these areas especially after 10 AM or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Many radar returns over KS/NE are not reaching the ground, and light
showers may not make it into the KC area until after sunrise. Even
then, activity should be scattered and light with few impacts to
airport operations. Any precipitation that makes it as far south and
west as KC is expected to be all rain, with perhaps some snow mixed
in further north toward STJ and IRK.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Many radar returns over KS/NE are not reaching the ground, and light
showers may not make it into the KC area until after sunrise. Even
then, activity should be scattered and light with few impacts to
airport operations. Any precipitation that makes it as far south and
west as KC is expected to be all rain, with perhaps some snow mixed
in further north toward STJ and IRK.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Many radar returns over KS/NE are not reaching the ground, and light
showers may not make it into the KC area until after sunrise. Even
then, activity should be scattered and light with few impacts to
airport operations. Any precipitation that makes it as far south and
west as KC is expected to be all rain, with perhaps some snow mixed
in further north toward STJ and IRK.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242053
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Will see a gradual
lowering of ceiling heights in advance of an oncoming storm system.
This activity will mainly affect areas to the northeast of the
terminals with light rain showers toward the latter half of the
forecast period. KMCI and surrounding terminals may see a sprinkle or
two between 06Z-12Z, though not enough evidence present to include in
forecast for now. Otherwise, winds will turn to the NW with gusts up
to 25kts once the cold front pushes through the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242053
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Will see a gradual
lowering of ceiling heights in advance of an oncoming storm system.
This activity will mainly affect areas to the northeast of the
terminals with light rain showers toward the latter half of the
forecast period. KMCI and surrounding terminals may see a sprinkle or
two between 06Z-12Z, though not enough evidence present to include in
forecast for now. Otherwise, winds will turn to the NW with gusts up
to 25kts once the cold front pushes through the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241710
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1110 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For late January...one could not ask for a better day than today as
above average temps will prevail ahead of a compact storm system that
will move in later tonight. Warm air advection ahead of this system
should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most
areas today...with mostly sunny skies prevailing overhead. Shifting gears
to tonight and Sunday...water vapor imagery showing main shortwave
of interest over British Columbia/western Alberta this morning. This
feature will rapidly dive southeast into the Plains later today...and
eventually the Lwr Missouri Valley during the overnight period
tonight. In recent days...guidance had been very insistent that the
bulk of precip would stay north and east of the region. That said...a
major model shift occurred since yesterday with latest trends now
advertising a further southward track of the accompanying sfc low
which is now forecast to move from from Sioux Falls to Quincy, IL by
12z Sunday. As this occurs...GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings show plenty
of warm air near the surface to keep all precip in the form of rain
overnight...however cold air advection on the backside of the low
combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for
portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. Have kept mix
mention mainly north of Route 36...however if trends continue to cool
with later model runs...this may need to be extended further south
towards the Missouri Rvr. In any event...feature certainly won/t have
much moisture to work with which should lead to no accumulation.
While Sunday looks a little more unsettled than previous forecasts
might have suggested...the other main story will be the much cooler
forecast as models have trended cooler. Knocked several degrees off
inherited high temp fcst as strong gusty winds bring plenty of cold
air south through the day.

Beyond this...a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated
as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and
shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to
traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains
by midweek. As this occurs...strong thermal advection ahead of the
feature will likely allow temps to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s
by Wednesday before a fairly significant cold front moves through
early Thursday morning. Feature looks to pass dry as expansive
ridging across the Gulf Coast prevents much moisture return north
through the Plains. Dry wx to then continue through the remainder of
the fcst period as cool Canadian high pressure settles south across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Will see a gradual
lowering of ceiling heights in advance of an oncoming storm system.
This activity will mainly affect areas to the northeast of the
terminals with light rain showers toward the latter half of the
forecast period. KMCI and surrounding terminals may see a sprinkle or
two between 06Z-12Z, though not enough evidence present to include in
forecast for now. Otherwise, winds will turn to the NW with gusts up
to 25kts once the cold front pushes through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241710
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1110 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For late January...one could not ask for a better day than today as
above average temps will prevail ahead of a compact storm system that
will move in later tonight. Warm air advection ahead of this system
should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most
areas today...with mostly sunny skies prevailing overhead. Shifting gears
to tonight and Sunday...water vapor imagery showing main shortwave
of interest over British Columbia/western Alberta this morning. This
feature will rapidly dive southeast into the Plains later today...and
eventually the Lwr Missouri Valley during the overnight period
tonight. In recent days...guidance had been very insistent that the
bulk of precip would stay north and east of the region. That said...a
major model shift occurred since yesterday with latest trends now
advertising a further southward track of the accompanying sfc low
which is now forecast to move from from Sioux Falls to Quincy, IL by
12z Sunday. As this occurs...GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings show plenty
of warm air near the surface to keep all precip in the form of rain
overnight...however cold air advection on the backside of the low
combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for
portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. Have kept mix
mention mainly north of Route 36...however if trends continue to cool
with later model runs...this may need to be extended further south
towards the Missouri Rvr. In any event...feature certainly won/t have
much moisture to work with which should lead to no accumulation.
While Sunday looks a little more unsettled than previous forecasts
might have suggested...the other main story will be the much cooler
forecast as models have trended cooler. Knocked several degrees off
inherited high temp fcst as strong gusty winds bring plenty of cold
air south through the day.

Beyond this...a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated
as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and
shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to
traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains
by midweek. As this occurs...strong thermal advection ahead of the
feature will likely allow temps to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s
by Wednesday before a fairly significant cold front moves through
early Thursday morning. Feature looks to pass dry as expansive
ridging across the Gulf Coast prevents much moisture return north
through the Plains. Dry wx to then continue through the remainder of
the fcst period as cool Canadian high pressure settles south across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Will see a gradual
lowering of ceiling heights in advance of an oncoming storm system.
This activity will mainly affect areas to the northeast of the
terminals with light rain showers toward the latter half of the
forecast period. KMCI and surrounding terminals may see a sprinkle or
two between 06Z-12Z, though not enough evidence present to include in
forecast for now. Otherwise, winds will turn to the NW with gusts up
to 25kts once the cold front pushes through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For late January...one could not ask for a better day than today as
above average temps will prevail ahead of a compact storm system that
will move in later tonight. Warm air advection ahead of this system
should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most
areas today...with mostly sunny skies prevailing overhead. Shifting gears
to tonight and Sunday...water vapor imagery showing main shortwave
of interest over British Columbia/western Alberta this morning. This
feature will rapidly dive southeast into the Plains later today...and
eventually the Lwr Missouri Valley during the overnight period
tonight. In recent days...guidance had been very insistent that the
bulk of precip would stay north and east of the region. That said...a
major model shift occurred since yesterday with latest trends now
advertising a further southward track of the accompanying sfc low
which is now forecast to move from from Sioux Falls to Quincy, IL by
12z Sunday. As this occurs...GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings show plenty
of warm air near the surface to keep all precip in the form of rain
overnight...however cold air advection on the backside of the low
combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for
portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. Have kept mix
mention mainly north of Route 36...however if trends continue to cool
with later model runs...this may need to be extended further south
towards the Missouri Rvr. In any event...feature certainly won/t have
much moisture to work with which should lead to no accumulation.
While Sunday looks a little more unsettled than previous forecasts
might have suggested...the other main story will be the much cooler
forecast as models have trended cooler. Knocked several degrees off
inherited high temp fcst as strong gusty winds bring plenty of cold
air south through the day.

Beyond this...a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated
as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and
shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to
traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains
by midweek. As this occurs...strong thermal advection ahead of the
feature will likely allow temps to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s
by Wednesday before a fairly significant cold front moves through
early Thursday morning. Feature looks to pass dry as expansive
ridging across the Gulf Coast prevents much moisture return north
through the Plains. Dry wx to then continue through the remainder of
the fcst period as cool Canadian high pressure settles south across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR conditions to prevail through the fcst period. Southwest winds
today of 8-12 kts will veer to the northwest early Sunday following
the passage of a cold front. Cigs should begin to fall after
6z...however current trends maintain bases above VFR thresholds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For late January...one could not ask for a better day than today as
above average temps will prevail ahead of a compact storm system that
will move in later tonight. Warm air advection ahead of this system
should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most
areas today...with mostly sunny skies prevailing overhead. Shifting gears
to tonight and Sunday...water vapor imagery showing main shortwave
of interest over British Columbia/western Alberta this morning. This
feature will rapidly dive southeast into the Plains later today...and
eventually the Lwr Missouri Valley during the overnight period
tonight. In recent days...guidance had been very insistent that the
bulk of precip would stay north and east of the region. That said...a
major model shift occurred since yesterday with latest trends now
advertising a further southward track of the accompanying sfc low
which is now forecast to move from from Sioux Falls to Quincy, IL by
12z Sunday. As this occurs...GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings show plenty
of warm air near the surface to keep all precip in the form of rain
overnight...however cold air advection on the backside of the low
combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for
portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. Have kept mix
mention mainly north of Route 36...however if trends continue to cool
with later model runs...this may need to be extended further south
towards the Missouri Rvr. In any event...feature certainly won/t have
much moisture to work with which should lead to no accumulation.
While Sunday looks a little more unsettled than previous forecasts
might have suggested...the other main story will be the much cooler
forecast as models have trended cooler. Knocked several degrees off
inherited high temp fcst as strong gusty winds bring plenty of cold
air south through the day.

Beyond this...a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated
as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and
shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to
traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains
by midweek. As this occurs...strong thermal advection ahead of the
feature will likely allow temps to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s
by Wednesday before a fairly significant cold front moves through
early Thursday morning. Feature looks to pass dry as expansive
ridging across the Gulf Coast prevents much moisture return north
through the Plains. Dry wx to then continue through the remainder of
the fcst period as cool Canadian high pressure settles south across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR conditions to prevail through the fcst period. Southwest winds
today of 8-12 kts will veer to the northwest early Sunday following
the passage of a cold front. Cigs should begin to fall after
6z...however current trends maintain bases above VFR thresholds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 240926
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For late January...one could not ask for a better day than today as
above average temps will prevail ahead of a compact storm system that
will move in later tonight. Warm air advection ahead of this system
should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most
areas today...with mostly sunny skies prevailing overhead. Shifting gears
to tonight and Sunday...water vapor imagery showing main shortwave
of interest over British Columbia/western Alberta this morning. This
feature will rapidly dive southeast into the Plains later today...and
eventually the Lwr Missouri Valley during the overnight period
tonight. In recent days...guidance had been very insistent that the
bulk of precip would stay north and east of the region. That said...a
major model shift occurred since yesterday with latest trends now
advertising a further southward track of the accompanying sfc low
which is now forecast to move from from Sioux Falls to Quincy, IL by
12z Sunday. As this occurs...GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings show plenty
of warm air near the surface to keep all precip in the form of rain
overnight...however cold air advection on the backside of the low
combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for
portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. Have kept mix
mention mainly north of Route 36...however if trends continue to cool
with later model runs...this may need to be extended further south
towards the Missouri Rvr. In any event...feature certainly won/t have
much moisture to work with which should lead to no accumulation.
While Sunday looks a little more unsettled than previous forecasts
might have suggested...the other main story will be the much cooler
forecast as models have trended cooler. Knocked several degrees off
inherited high temp fcst as strong gusty winds bring plenty of cold
air south through the day.

Beyond this...a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated
as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and
shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to
traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains
by midweek. As this occurs...strong thermal advection ahead of the
feature will likely allow temps to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s
by Wednesday before a fairly significant cold front moves through
early Thursday morning. Feature looks to pass dry as expansive
ridging across the Gulf Coast prevents much moisture return north
through the Plains. Dry wx to then continue through the remainder of
the fcst period as cool Canadian high pressure settles south across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak cold front dropping into northwest MO at this hour will have
minimal impacts to terminals other than a wind shift to the
northwest. Otherwise VFR through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 240926
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For late January...one could not ask for a better day than today as
above average temps will prevail ahead of a compact storm system that
will move in later tonight. Warm air advection ahead of this system
should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most
areas today...with mostly sunny skies prevailing overhead. Shifting gears
to tonight and Sunday...water vapor imagery showing main shortwave
of interest over British Columbia/western Alberta this morning. This
feature will rapidly dive southeast into the Plains later today...and
eventually the Lwr Missouri Valley during the overnight period
tonight. In recent days...guidance had been very insistent that the
bulk of precip would stay north and east of the region. That said...a
major model shift occurred since yesterday with latest trends now
advertising a further southward track of the accompanying sfc low
which is now forecast to move from from Sioux Falls to Quincy, IL by
12z Sunday. As this occurs...GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings show plenty
of warm air near the surface to keep all precip in the form of rain
overnight...however cold air advection on the backside of the low
combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for
portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. Have kept mix
mention mainly north of Route 36...however if trends continue to cool
with later model runs...this may need to be extended further south
towards the Missouri Rvr. In any event...feature certainly won/t have
much moisture to work with which should lead to no accumulation.
While Sunday looks a little more unsettled than previous forecasts
might have suggested...the other main story will be the much cooler
forecast as models have trended cooler. Knocked several degrees off
inherited high temp fcst as strong gusty winds bring plenty of cold
air south through the day.

Beyond this...a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated
as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and
shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to
traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains
by midweek. As this occurs...strong thermal advection ahead of the
feature will likely allow temps to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s
by Wednesday before a fairly significant cold front moves through
early Thursday morning. Feature looks to pass dry as expansive
ridging across the Gulf Coast prevents much moisture return north
through the Plains. Dry wx to then continue through the remainder of
the fcst period as cool Canadian high pressure settles south across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak cold front dropping into northwest MO at this hour will have
minimal impacts to terminals other than a wind shift to the
northwest. Otherwise VFR through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240926
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For late January...one could not ask for a better day than today as
above average temps will prevail ahead of a compact storm system that
will move in later tonight. Warm air advection ahead of this system
should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most
areas today...with mostly sunny skies prevailing overhead. Shifting gears
to tonight and Sunday...water vapor imagery showing main shortwave
of interest over British Columbia/western Alberta this morning. This
feature will rapidly dive southeast into the Plains later today...and
eventually the Lwr Missouri Valley during the overnight period
tonight. In recent days...guidance had been very insistent that the
bulk of precip would stay north and east of the region. That said...a
major model shift occurred since yesterday with latest trends now
advertising a further southward track of the accompanying sfc low
which is now forecast to move from from Sioux Falls to Quincy, IL by
12z Sunday. As this occurs...GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings show plenty
of warm air near the surface to keep all precip in the form of rain
overnight...however cold air advection on the backside of the low
combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for
portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. Have kept mix
mention mainly north of Route 36...however if trends continue to cool
with later model runs...this may need to be extended further south
towards the Missouri Rvr. In any event...feature certainly won/t have
much moisture to work with which should lead to no accumulation.
While Sunday looks a little more unsettled than previous forecasts
might have suggested...the other main story will be the much cooler
forecast as models have trended cooler. Knocked several degrees off
inherited high temp fcst as strong gusty winds bring plenty of cold
air south through the day.

Beyond this...a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated
as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and
shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to
traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains
by midweek. As this occurs...strong thermal advection ahead of the
feature will likely allow temps to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s
by Wednesday before a fairly significant cold front moves through
early Thursday morning. Feature looks to pass dry as expansive
ridging across the Gulf Coast prevents much moisture return north
through the Plains. Dry wx to then continue through the remainder of
the fcst period as cool Canadian high pressure settles south across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak cold front dropping into northwest MO at this hour will have
minimal impacts to terminals other than a wind shift to the
northwest. Otherwise VFR through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240926
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For late January...one could not ask for a better day than today as
above average temps will prevail ahead of a compact storm system that
will move in later tonight. Warm air advection ahead of this system
should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most
areas today...with mostly sunny skies prevailing overhead. Shifting gears
to tonight and Sunday...water vapor imagery showing main shortwave
of interest over British Columbia/western Alberta this morning. This
feature will rapidly dive southeast into the Plains later today...and
eventually the Lwr Missouri Valley during the overnight period
tonight. In recent days...guidance had been very insistent that the
bulk of precip would stay north and east of the region. That said...a
major model shift occurred since yesterday with latest trends now
advertising a further southward track of the accompanying sfc low
which is now forecast to move from from Sioux Falls to Quincy, IL by
12z Sunday. As this occurs...GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings show plenty
of warm air near the surface to keep all precip in the form of rain
overnight...however cold air advection on the backside of the low
combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for
portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. Have kept mix
mention mainly north of Route 36...however if trends continue to cool
with later model runs...this may need to be extended further south
towards the Missouri Rvr. In any event...feature certainly won/t have
much moisture to work with which should lead to no accumulation.
While Sunday looks a little more unsettled than previous forecasts
might have suggested...the other main story will be the much cooler
forecast as models have trended cooler. Knocked several degrees off
inherited high temp fcst as strong gusty winds bring plenty of cold
air south through the day.

Beyond this...a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated
as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and
shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to
traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains
by midweek. As this occurs...strong thermal advection ahead of the
feature will likely allow temps to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s
by Wednesday before a fairly significant cold front moves through
early Thursday morning. Feature looks to pass dry as expansive
ridging across the Gulf Coast prevents much moisture return north
through the Plains. Dry wx to then continue through the remainder of
the fcst period as cool Canadian high pressure settles south across
the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak cold front dropping into northwest MO at this hour will have
minimal impacts to terminals other than a wind shift to the
northwest. Otherwise VFR through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities