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000
FXUS63 KEAX 112351
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 220 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Next weather feature of interest inbound this afternoon as
seen on latest water vapor imagery with distinct darkening noted
across north-central Nebraska. With time this evening...expect snow
to gradually slide southeast across north-central and eastern
Missouri...as weak to moderate forcing combines with weak mid-level
frontogenesis. To reverberate earlier forecast discussions...this
feature is almost a carbon copy of yesterday/s weak wave that led to
snowfall accumulations of roughly an inch across eastern portions of
the fcst area. Considering this feature will too be moisture
starved...we can once again expect accumulations to remain around an
inch before activity slides southeast of the area shortly after
midnight. Overnight lows will range from the middle 20s across the
west to include the KC area...to upper teens across the far east.

Dry weather to return area on Friday with low clouds likely hanging
around for a good portion the morning into the early afternoon hrs.
Decent northerly flow on the backside of tonight/s storm system will
result in slightly cooler conditions than previously forecast...with
mid 30s expected across the KC Metro and points south...to upper 20s
for areas north of Route 36. Unfortunately the coldest period of the
weekend will arrive on Saturday as strong high pressure building into
the upper Miss Rvr Vly propels an Arctic front south across our area
Friday night. With sfc ridging extending directly south our area
combined with clearing skies aloft...single digit lows Saturday
morning will be followed by highs that will struggle to make it out
of the mid 20s Saturday afternoon. Current fcst calls for apparent
temps remaining just above windchill advisory thresholds...however
this will need to be revisited with later forecast packages.

Much of Saturday evening will remain dry across our region with
precip chances ramping up once again early Sunday morning as next
upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. Fcst models have been
all over the place with this system...with the NAM now being the
coldest solution of all. Meanwhile the GFS remains the warmest as it
takes a sfc low south along a preexisting thermal gradient through
the day on Sunday. This scenario would allow for a decent warm-up for
the western 2/3rds of the CWA Sunday afternoon with an early RA/SN
mix gradually transitioning to all RA in the afternoon. The ECMWF
appears to be a nice compromise right now...however would not be
surprised if it eventually trends towards a GFS solution later on.
That being said...cannot rule out the possibility for light
FZDZ/FZRA mix early Sunday morning before temps warm up later in the
day as fcst soundings continue to show a limited amount of saturation
in the snow growth region. It should be stated this trend is also
noted in the colder NAM solution as well. For areas east of Route
65...NAM and GFS soundings seem to agree that better saturation will
be in place aloft which should support more of a snow fcst. With many
details left to be worked out...did not want to get too cute with the
fcst...however have advertised a wintry mix of for areas west of
Route 65 Sunday morning. Precip chances should gradually come to an
end from west to east through the afternoon hrs as main trough
responsible quickly exits to the east later in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A quick moving shortwave trough moving through the flow will follow
on the heels of the departing weekend system, impacting the Plains
region Monday. Long-range models drop this wave west and south of
the general area, limiting additional precipitation potential for
much of the CWA. If this wave digs a bit less, weekend precipitation
might linger into Monday. The remainder of the extended period looks
warm and dry with temperatures climbing into the 50s and low 60s as
upper ridge axis across the western US begins to flatten
and translate eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Didn`t make any large changes to this forecast package, but am
thinking that MVFR stratus is probable overnight. Upstream OBs are
in the MVFR range, forecast soundings indicate good saturation
around 2500 feet, and LAMP guidance suggests sub-3kft ceilings. SREF
probs are a bit indifferent, showing a 40-50 percent chance of MVFR
Cigs. Overall feel that the signal is there for some MVFR concerns
overnight. That being said, will reassess at 06z for official
introduction of restrictive ceilings.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 112102
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
302 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 220 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Next weather feature of interest inbound this afternoon as
seen on latest water vapor imagery with distinct darkening noted
across north-central Nebraska. With time this evening...expect snow
to gradually slide southeast across north-central and eastern
Missouri...as weak to moderate forcing combines with weak mid-level
frontogenesis. To reverberate earlier forecast discussions...this
feature is almost a carbon copy of yesterday/s weak wave that led to
snowfall accumulations of roughly an inch across eastern portions of
the fcst area. Considering this feature will too be moisture
starved...we can once again expect accumulations to remain around an
inch before activity slides southeast of the area shortly after
midnight. Overnight lows will range from the middle 20s across the
west to include the KC area...to upper teens across the far east.

Dry weather to return area on Friday with low clouds likely hanging
around for a good portion the morning into the early afternoon hrs.
Decent northerly flow on the backside of tonight/s storm system will
result in slightly cooler conditions than previously forecast...with
mid 30s expected across the KC Metro and points south...to upper 20s
for areas north of Route 36. Unfortunately the coldest period of the
weekend will arrive on Saturday as strong high pressure building into
the upper Miss Rvr Vly propels an Arctic front south across our area
Friday night. With sfc ridging extending directly south our area
combined with clearing skies aloft...single digit lows Saturday
morning will be followed by highs that will struggle to make it out
of the mid 20s Saturday afternoon. Current fcst calls for apparent
temps remaining just above windchill advisory thresholds...however
this will need to be revisited with later forecast packages.

Much of Saturday evening will remain dry across our region with
precip chances ramping up once again early Sunday morning as next
upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. Fcst models have been
all over the place with this system...with the NAM now being the
coldest solution of all. Meanwhile the GFS remains the warmest as it
takes a sfc low south along a preexisting thermal gradient through
the day on Sunday. This scenario would allow for a decent warm-up for
the western 2/3rds of the CWA Sunday afternoon with an early RA/SN
mix gradually transitioning to all RA in the afternoon. The ECMWF
appears to be a nice compromise right now...however would not be
surprised if it eventually trends towards a GFS solution later on.
That being said...cannot rule out the possibility for light
FZDZ/FZRA mix early Sunday morning before temps warm up later in the
day as fcst soundings continue to show a limited amount of saturation
in the snow growth region. It should be stated this trend is also
noted in the colder NAM solution as well. For areas east of Route
65...NAM and GFS soundings seem to agree that better saturation will
be in place aloft which should support more of a snow fcst. With many
details left to be worked out...did not want to get too cute with the
fcst...however have advertised a wintry mix of for areas west of
Route 65 Sunday morning. Precip chances should gradually come to an
end from west to east through the afternoon hrs as main trough
responsible quickly exits to the east later in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A quick moving shortwave trough moving through the flow will follow
on the heels of the departing weekend system, impacting the Plains
region Monday. Long-range models drop this wave west and south of
the general area, limiting additional precipitation potential for
much of the CWA. If this wave digs a bit less, weekend precipitation
might linger into Monday. The remainder of the extended period looks
warm and dry with temperatures climbing into the 50s and low 60s as
upper ridge axis across the western US begins to flatten
and translate eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through much of the afternoon and
overnight...with MVFR cigs possibly developing after 12z Friday as
low-level moisture becomes trapped following the passage of a weak
storm system early Fri morning. Winds today and tonight will
continue to veer to the southeast and south out ahead of this
feature...with northerly winds becoming predominate after 12z.
Considering the distance into the fcst and uncertainties regarding
how low cigs will be Fri morning...have elected to only offer a
SCT025 mention at all locations after 13z for now. Later forecasts
will be able to address this minor concern a little better following
the arrival of addition near-term model guidance.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 111719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last
evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw
colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the
20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the
forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and
may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and
west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower
40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively
as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and
into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off
the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and
evening hours.

The main focus for this evening and tonight will be yet another
swath of pacific moisture, accompanying an upper jet streak and its
associated midlevel wave. This setup looks extremely similar to
yesterday`s light snow event, will spread across the same areas as
yesterday, and snow accumulations are expected to total and inch or
less. Accumulating snow will be most likely between 6 PM and 12 AM,
generally along and east of a line from Bethany to Boonville.

Breezy north northwest winds are expected behind this system, and
will hold down Friday temperatures more than previously anticipated,
especially during the afternoon when cold air advection will be the
strongest. Surface high pressure will then build into the area that
night into Saturday morning, bringing lows into the single digits
across the northern half of the forecast area, and possibly even to
below zero near the IA border.

Wintry precipitation is still possible Sunday as an upper trough
dips into the central U.S., but model agreement is still somewhat
poor in how far south the trough will dig and how it will manifest
at the surface. The EC continues to split regions of precipitation
into 1) the northern, more clipper-like snow band, and 2) a swath of
light to moderate rain across the Arklatex region; while the GFS
keeps a more cohesive swath of precipitation along and ahead of the
surface cold front, which would be mainly snow in our forecast area.
It`s worth noting that the EC only generates precipitation for the
northeast CWA with the clipper portion of the system, and maintains
a dry forecast for the remainder; while the GFS would indicate at
least some precipitation for the length of the forecast area. As a
result, have kept PoPs below 50% and have not completely bitten on a
precipitation type for anywhere except northeast MO.

Much warmer temperatures are still expected for next week, as an
upper ridge center itself across the CONUS and warm air surges up
ahead of a deep low that will eventually trek across the U.S./Canada
border the following weekend. Highs could reach the mid to even
upper 60s by next Thursday; after which temperatures will depend on
how quickly that aforementioned system drags its cold front through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through much of the afternoon and
overnight...with MVFR cigs possibly developing after 12z Friday as
low-level moisture becomes trapped following the passage of a weak
storm system early Fri morning. Winds today and tonight will
continue to veer to the southeast and south out ahead of this
feature...with northerly winds becoming predominate after 12z.
Considering the distance into the fcst and uncertainties regarding
how low cigs will be Fri morning...have elected to only offer a
SCT025 mention at all locations after 13z for now. Later forecasts
will be able to address this minor concern a little better following
the arrival of addition near-term model guidance.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 111719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last
evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw
colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the
20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the
forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and
may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and
west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower
40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively
as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and
into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off
the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and
evening hours.

The main focus for this evening and tonight will be yet another
swath of pacific moisture, accompanying an upper jet streak and its
associated midlevel wave. This setup looks extremely similar to
yesterday`s light snow event, will spread across the same areas as
yesterday, and snow accumulations are expected to total and inch or
less. Accumulating snow will be most likely between 6 PM and 12 AM,
generally along and east of a line from Bethany to Boonville.

Breezy north northwest winds are expected behind this system, and
will hold down Friday temperatures more than previously anticipated,
especially during the afternoon when cold air advection will be the
strongest. Surface high pressure will then build into the area that
night into Saturday morning, bringing lows into the single digits
across the northern half of the forecast area, and possibly even to
below zero near the IA border.

Wintry precipitation is still possible Sunday as an upper trough
dips into the central U.S., but model agreement is still somewhat
poor in how far south the trough will dig and how it will manifest
at the surface. The EC continues to split regions of precipitation
into 1) the northern, more clipper-like snow band, and 2) a swath of
light to moderate rain across the Arklatex region; while the GFS
keeps a more cohesive swath of precipitation along and ahead of the
surface cold front, which would be mainly snow in our forecast area.
It`s worth noting that the EC only generates precipitation for the
northeast CWA with the clipper portion of the system, and maintains
a dry forecast for the remainder; while the GFS would indicate at
least some precipitation for the length of the forecast area. As a
result, have kept PoPs below 50% and have not completely bitten on a
precipitation type for anywhere except northeast MO.

Much warmer temperatures are still expected for next week, as an
upper ridge center itself across the CONUS and warm air surges up
ahead of a deep low that will eventually trek across the U.S./Canada
border the following weekend. Highs could reach the mid to even
upper 60s by next Thursday; after which temperatures will depend on
how quickly that aforementioned system drags its cold front through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through much of the afternoon and
overnight...with MVFR cigs possibly developing after 12z Friday as
low-level moisture becomes trapped following the passage of a weak
storm system early Fri morning. Winds today and tonight will
continue to veer to the southeast and south out ahead of this
feature...with northerly winds becoming predominate after 12z.
Considering the distance into the fcst and uncertainties regarding
how low cigs will be Fri morning...have elected to only offer a
SCT025 mention at all locations after 13z for now. Later forecasts
will be able to address this minor concern a little better following
the arrival of addition near-term model guidance.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 111719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last
evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw
colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the
20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the
forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and
may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and
west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower
40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively
as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and
into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off
the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and
evening hours.

The main focus for this evening and tonight will be yet another
swath of pacific moisture, accompanying an upper jet streak and its
associated midlevel wave. This setup looks extremely similar to
yesterday`s light snow event, will spread across the same areas as
yesterday, and snow accumulations are expected to total and inch or
less. Accumulating snow will be most likely between 6 PM and 12 AM,
generally along and east of a line from Bethany to Boonville.

Breezy north northwest winds are expected behind this system, and
will hold down Friday temperatures more than previously anticipated,
especially during the afternoon when cold air advection will be the
strongest. Surface high pressure will then build into the area that
night into Saturday morning, bringing lows into the single digits
across the northern half of the forecast area, and possibly even to
below zero near the IA border.

Wintry precipitation is still possible Sunday as an upper trough
dips into the central U.S., but model agreement is still somewhat
poor in how far south the trough will dig and how it will manifest
at the surface. The EC continues to split regions of precipitation
into 1) the northern, more clipper-like snow band, and 2) a swath of
light to moderate rain across the Arklatex region; while the GFS
keeps a more cohesive swath of precipitation along and ahead of the
surface cold front, which would be mainly snow in our forecast area.
It`s worth noting that the EC only generates precipitation for the
northeast CWA with the clipper portion of the system, and maintains
a dry forecast for the remainder; while the GFS would indicate at
least some precipitation for the length of the forecast area. As a
result, have kept PoPs below 50% and have not completely bitten on a
precipitation type for anywhere except northeast MO.

Much warmer temperatures are still expected for next week, as an
upper ridge center itself across the CONUS and warm air surges up
ahead of a deep low that will eventually trek across the U.S./Canada
border the following weekend. Highs could reach the mid to even
upper 60s by next Thursday; after which temperatures will depend on
how quickly that aforementioned system drags its cold front through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through much of the afternoon and
overnight...with MVFR cigs possibly developing after 12z Friday as
low-level moisture becomes trapped following the passage of a weak
storm system early Fri morning. Winds today and tonight will
continue to veer to the southeast and south out ahead of this
feature...with northerly winds becoming predominate after 12z.
Considering the distance into the fcst and uncertainties regarding
how low cigs will be Fri morning...have elected to only offer a
SCT025 mention at all locations after 13z for now. Later forecasts
will be able to address this minor concern a little better following
the arrival of addition near-term model guidance.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32




000
FXUS63 KEAX 111132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last
evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw
colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the
20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the
forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and
may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and
west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower
40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively
as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and
into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off
the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and
evening hours.

The main focus for this evening and tonight will be yet another
swath of pacific moisture, accompanying an upper jet streak and its
associated midlevel wave. This setup looks extremely similar to
yesterday`s light snow event, will spread across the same areas as
yesterday, and snow accumulations are expected to total and inch or
less. Accumulating snow will be most likely between 6 PM and 12 AM,
generally along and east of a line from Bethany to Boonville.

Breezy north northwest winds are expected behind this system, and
will hold down Friday temperatures more than previously anticipated,
especially during the afternoon when cold air advection will be the
strongest. Surface high pressure will then build into the area that
night into Saturday morning, bringing lows into the single digits
across the northern half of the forecast area, and possibly even to
below zero near the IA border.

Wintry precipitation is still possible Sunday as an upper trough
dips into the central U.S., but model agreement is still somewhat
poor in how far south the trough will dig and how it will manifest
at the surface. The EC continues to split regions of precipitation
into 1) the northern, more clipper-like snow band, and 2) a swath of
light to moderate rain across the Arklatex region; while the GFS
keeps a more cohesive swath of precipitation along and ahead of the
surface cold front, which would be mainly snow in our forecast area.
It`s worth noting that the EC only generates precipitation for the
northeast CWA with the clipper portion of the system, and maintains
a dry forecast for the remainder; while the GFS would indicate at
least some precipitation for the length of the forecast area. As a
result, have kept PoPs below 50% and have not completely bitten on a
precipitation type for anywhere except northeast MO.

Much warmer temperatures are still expected for next week, as an
upper ridge center itself across the CONUS and warm air surges up
ahead of a deep low that will eventually trek across the U.S./Canada
border the following weekend. Highs could reach the mid to even
upper 60s by next Thursday; after which temperatures will depend on
how quickly that aforementioned system drags its cold front through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Stratus currently over southeast NE and northeast KS will push
southeast, possibly impacting TAF sites before 15z; however, the
stratus has struggled to hold together this morning, and may be
broken to even scattered by the time it arrives in the KC area.
The lowest deck of stratus will scatter out by mid-morning, leaving
the area VFR for the remainder of the day. Winds will be light
throughout the TAF period, veering from northeast this morning to
southeast by early evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 111132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last
evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw
colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the
20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the
forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and
may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and
west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower
40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively
as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and
into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off
the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and
evening hours.

The main focus for this evening and tonight will be yet another
swath of pacific moisture, accompanying an upper jet streak and its
associated midlevel wave. This setup looks extremely similar to
yesterday`s light snow event, will spread across the same areas as
yesterday, and snow accumulations are expected to total and inch or
less. Accumulating snow will be most likely between 6 PM and 12 AM,
generally along and east of a line from Bethany to Boonville.

Breezy north northwest winds are expected behind this system, and
will hold down Friday temperatures more than previously anticipated,
especially during the afternoon when cold air advection will be the
strongest. Surface high pressure will then build into the area that
night into Saturday morning, bringing lows into the single digits
across the northern half of the forecast area, and possibly even to
below zero near the IA border.

Wintry precipitation is still possible Sunday as an upper trough
dips into the central U.S., but model agreement is still somewhat
poor in how far south the trough will dig and how it will manifest
at the surface. The EC continues to split regions of precipitation
into 1) the northern, more clipper-like snow band, and 2) a swath of
light to moderate rain across the Arklatex region; while the GFS
keeps a more cohesive swath of precipitation along and ahead of the
surface cold front, which would be mainly snow in our forecast area.
It`s worth noting that the EC only generates precipitation for the
northeast CWA with the clipper portion of the system, and maintains
a dry forecast for the remainder; while the GFS would indicate at
least some precipitation for the length of the forecast area. As a
result, have kept PoPs below 50% and have not completely bitten on a
precipitation type for anywhere except northeast MO.

Much warmer temperatures are still expected for next week, as an
upper ridge center itself across the CONUS and warm air surges up
ahead of a deep low that will eventually trek across the U.S./Canada
border the following weekend. Highs could reach the mid to even
upper 60s by next Thursday; after which temperatures will depend on
how quickly that aforementioned system drags its cold front through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Stratus currently over southeast NE and northeast KS will push
southeast, possibly impacting TAF sites before 15z; however, the
stratus has struggled to hold together this morning, and may be
broken to even scattered by the time it arrives in the KC area.
The lowest deck of stratus will scatter out by mid-morning, leaving
the area VFR for the remainder of the day. Winds will be light
throughout the TAF period, veering from northeast this morning to
southeast by early evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 111132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last
evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw
colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the
20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the
forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and
may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and
west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower
40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively
as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and
into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off
the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and
evening hours.

The main focus for this evening and tonight will be yet another
swath of pacific moisture, accompanying an upper jet streak and its
associated midlevel wave. This setup looks extremely similar to
yesterday`s light snow event, will spread across the same areas as
yesterday, and snow accumulations are expected to total and inch or
less. Accumulating snow will be most likely between 6 PM and 12 AM,
generally along and east of a line from Bethany to Boonville.

Breezy north northwest winds are expected behind this system, and
will hold down Friday temperatures more than previously anticipated,
especially during the afternoon when cold air advection will be the
strongest. Surface high pressure will then build into the area that
night into Saturday morning, bringing lows into the single digits
across the northern half of the forecast area, and possibly even to
below zero near the IA border.

Wintry precipitation is still possible Sunday as an upper trough
dips into the central U.S., but model agreement is still somewhat
poor in how far south the trough will dig and how it will manifest
at the surface. The EC continues to split regions of precipitation
into 1) the northern, more clipper-like snow band, and 2) a swath of
light to moderate rain across the Arklatex region; while the GFS
keeps a more cohesive swath of precipitation along and ahead of the
surface cold front, which would be mainly snow in our forecast area.
It`s worth noting that the EC only generates precipitation for the
northeast CWA with the clipper portion of the system, and maintains
a dry forecast for the remainder; while the GFS would indicate at
least some precipitation for the length of the forecast area. As a
result, have kept PoPs below 50% and have not completely bitten on a
precipitation type for anywhere except northeast MO.

Much warmer temperatures are still expected for next week, as an
upper ridge center itself across the CONUS and warm air surges up
ahead of a deep low that will eventually trek across the U.S./Canada
border the following weekend. Highs could reach the mid to even
upper 60s by next Thursday; after which temperatures will depend on
how quickly that aforementioned system drags its cold front through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Stratus currently over southeast NE and northeast KS will push
southeast, possibly impacting TAF sites before 15z; however, the
stratus has struggled to hold together this morning, and may be
broken to even scattered by the time it arrives in the KC area.
The lowest deck of stratus will scatter out by mid-morning, leaving
the area VFR for the remainder of the day. Winds will be light
throughout the TAF period, veering from northeast this morning to
southeast by early evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 110938
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last
evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw
colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the
20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the
forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and
may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and
west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower
40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively
as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and
into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off
the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and
evening hours.

The main focus for this evening and tonight will be yet another
swath of pacific moisture, accompanying an upper jet streak and its
associated midlevel wave. This setup looks extremely similar to
yesterday`s light snow event, will spread across the same areas as
yesterday, and snow accumulations are expected to total and inch or
less. Accumulating snow will be most likely between 6 PM and 12 AM,
generally along and east of a line from Bethany to Boonville.

Breezy north northwest winds are expected behind this system, and
will hold down Friday temperatures more than previously anticipated,
especially during the afternoon when cold air advection will be the
strongest. Surface high pressure will then build into the area that
night into Saturday morning, bringing lows into the single digits
across the northern half of the forecast area, and possibly even to
below zero near the IA border.

Wintry precipitation is still possible Sunday as an upper trough
dips into the central U.S., but model agreement is still somewhat
poor in how far south the trough will dig and how it will manifest
at the surface. The EC continues to split regions of precipitation
into 1) the northern, more clipper-like snow band, and 2) a swath of
light to moderate rain across the Arklatex region; while the GFS
keeps a more cohesive swath of precipitation along and ahead of the
surface cold front, which would be mainly snow in our forecast area.
It`s worth noting that the EC only generates precipitation for the
northeast CWA with the clipper portion of the system, and maintains
a dry forecast for the remainder; while the GFS would indicate at
least some precipitation for the length of the forecast area. As a
result, have kept PoPs below 50% and have not completely bitten on a
precipitation type for anywhere except northeast MO.

Much warmer temperatures are still expected for next week, as an
upper ridge center itself across the CONUS and warm air surges up
ahead of a deep low that will eventually trek across the U.S./Canada
border the following weekend. Highs could reach the mid to even
upper 60s by next Thursday; after which temperatures will depend on
how quickly that aforementioned system drags its cold front through
the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Overnight low level stratus still on tap, but it looks like the
saturated level will be rather thin so there could be off and on
periods of breaks in the clouds. Some mixed signals about when the
clouds will scatter, but right now it looks like the favored time for
VFR conditions to return will be shortly after sunrise on Thursday
morning.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 110521
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1121 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Quite a temperature gradient across the CWA this afternoon with
highs in the 20s and low 30s throughout the northeast half and 40s
and low 50s across the southwest. A quick little clipper system
moving through strong northwest flow aloft brought a quick inch of
snow to much of north-central and central Missouri. This snowband
will rapidly taper off over the next several hours. Further to the
southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to
gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This has also helped to erode much of
the cloud cover across this area.

Low stratus deck will build back over the CWA tonight as surface low
drops southward into Oklahoma and surface high migrates southward
out of the Northern Plains. Winds will become more northerly tonight
behind the departing system and will allow for sufficient mixing in
the boundary layer to mitigate the potential for fog. Another quick
moving clipper type system overnight Thursday will bring another
shot for light snow across northeast portions of the CWA through
Friday morning. The coldest day this week will arrive Saturday as
Canadian high pressure surges down into the central US. High
temperatures will only make it to the teens across the northeast
half of the CWA with 20 to maybe low 30s further south and west.

The next system to keep an eye on will impact the region Saturday
night and Sunday with the potential for rain, snow, and a wintry mix
throughout the day. Long-range models still have a few differences
in timing and location of the system, and this will affect the
timing of precipitation and potential precip types. Right now
temperatures look to stay near or slightly above freezing late
Sunday morning and afternoon, so timing will be an important factor
in precip impacts. For now have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast
for areas that look to reach near to above freezing.

After the weekend system moves out, above normal temperatures return
to the region and might lead to a bit of spring fever as highs
approach the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Overnight low level stratus still on tap, but it looks like the
saturated level will be rather thin so there could be off and on
periods of breaks in the clouds. Some mixed signals about when the
clouds will scatter, but right now it looks like the favored time for
VFR conditions to return will be shortly after sunrise on Thursday
morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 110521
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1121 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Quite a temperature gradient across the CWA this afternoon with
highs in the 20s and low 30s throughout the northeast half and 40s
and low 50s across the southwest. A quick little clipper system
moving through strong northwest flow aloft brought a quick inch of
snow to much of north-central and central Missouri. This snowband
will rapidly taper off over the next several hours. Further to the
southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to
gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This has also helped to erode much of
the cloud cover across this area.

Low stratus deck will build back over the CWA tonight as surface low
drops southward into Oklahoma and surface high migrates southward
out of the Northern Plains. Winds will become more northerly tonight
behind the departing system and will allow for sufficient mixing in
the boundary layer to mitigate the potential for fog. Another quick
moving clipper type system overnight Thursday will bring another
shot for light snow across northeast portions of the CWA through
Friday morning. The coldest day this week will arrive Saturday as
Canadian high pressure surges down into the central US. High
temperatures will only make it to the teens across the northeast
half of the CWA with 20 to maybe low 30s further south and west.

The next system to keep an eye on will impact the region Saturday
night and Sunday with the potential for rain, snow, and a wintry mix
throughout the day. Long-range models still have a few differences
in timing and location of the system, and this will affect the
timing of precipitation and potential precip types. Right now
temperatures look to stay near or slightly above freezing late
Sunday morning and afternoon, so timing will be an important factor
in precip impacts. For now have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast
for areas that look to reach near to above freezing.

After the weekend system moves out, above normal temperatures return
to the region and might lead to a bit of spring fever as highs
approach the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Overnight low level stratus still on tap, but it looks like the
saturated level will be rather thin so there could be off and on
periods of breaks in the clouds. Some mixed signals about when the
clouds will scatter, but right now it looks like the favored time for
VFR conditions to return will be shortly after sunrise on Thursday
morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 110521
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1121 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Quite a temperature gradient across the CWA this afternoon with
highs in the 20s and low 30s throughout the northeast half and 40s
and low 50s across the southwest. A quick little clipper system
moving through strong northwest flow aloft brought a quick inch of
snow to much of north-central and central Missouri. This snowband
will rapidly taper off over the next several hours. Further to the
southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to
gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This has also helped to erode much of
the cloud cover across this area.

Low stratus deck will build back over the CWA tonight as surface low
drops southward into Oklahoma and surface high migrates southward
out of the Northern Plains. Winds will become more northerly tonight
behind the departing system and will allow for sufficient mixing in
the boundary layer to mitigate the potential for fog. Another quick
moving clipper type system overnight Thursday will bring another
shot for light snow across northeast portions of the CWA through
Friday morning. The coldest day this week will arrive Saturday as
Canadian high pressure surges down into the central US. High
temperatures will only make it to the teens across the northeast
half of the CWA with 20 to maybe low 30s further south and west.

The next system to keep an eye on will impact the region Saturday
night and Sunday with the potential for rain, snow, and a wintry mix
throughout the day. Long-range models still have a few differences
in timing and location of the system, and this will affect the
timing of precipitation and potential precip types. Right now
temperatures look to stay near or slightly above freezing late
Sunday morning and afternoon, so timing will be an important factor
in precip impacts. For now have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast
for areas that look to reach near to above freezing.

After the weekend system moves out, above normal temperatures return
to the region and might lead to a bit of spring fever as highs
approach the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Overnight low level stratus still on tap, but it looks like the
saturated level will be rather thin so there could be off and on
periods of breaks in the clouds. Some mixed signals about when the
clouds will scatter, but right now it looks like the favored time for
VFR conditions to return will be shortly after sunrise on Thursday
morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 102330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Quite a temperature gradient across the CWA this afternoon with
highs in the 20s and low 30s throughout the northeast half and 40s
and low 50s across the southwest. A quick little clipper system
moving through strong northwest flow aloft brought a quick inch of
snow to much of north-central and central Missouri. This snowband
will rapidly taper off over the next several hours. Further to the
southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to
gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This has also helped to erode much of
the cloud cover across this area.

Low stratus deck will build back over the CWA tonight as surface low
drops southward into Oklahoma and surface high migrates southward
out of the Northern Plains. Winds will become more northerly tonight
behind the departing system and will allow for sufficient mixing in
the boundary layer to mitigate the potential for fog. Another quick
moving clipper type system overnight Thursday will bring another
shot for light snow across northeast portions of the CWA through
Friday morning. The coldest day this week will arrive Saturday as
Canadian high pressure surges down into the central US. High
temperatures will only make it to the teens across the northeast
half of the CWA with 20 to maybe low 30s further south and west.

The next system to keep an eye on will impact the region Saturday
night and Sunday with the potential for rain, snow, and a wintry mix
throughout the day. Long-range models still have a few differences
in timing and location of the system, and this will affect the
timing of precipitation and potential precip types. Right now
temperatures look to stay near or slightly above freezing late
Sunday morning and afternoon, so timing will be an important factor
in precip impacts. For now have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast
for areas that look to reach near to above freezing.

After the weekend system moves out, above normal temperatures return
to the region and might lead to a bit of spring fever as highs
approach the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Overnight low level stratus still on tap, but it looks like the
saturated (cloud bearing) level will be rather thin so there could be
off and on periods of breaks in the clouds. Some mixed signals about
when the clouds will scatter, but right now it looks like the favored
time for VFR conditions to return will be shortly after sunrise on
Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 102330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Quite a temperature gradient across the CWA this afternoon with
highs in the 20s and low 30s throughout the northeast half and 40s
and low 50s across the southwest. A quick little clipper system
moving through strong northwest flow aloft brought a quick inch of
snow to much of north-central and central Missouri. This snowband
will rapidly taper off over the next several hours. Further to the
southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to
gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This has also helped to erode much of
the cloud cover across this area.

Low stratus deck will build back over the CWA tonight as surface low
drops southward into Oklahoma and surface high migrates southward
out of the Northern Plains. Winds will become more northerly tonight
behind the departing system and will allow for sufficient mixing in
the boundary layer to mitigate the potential for fog. Another quick
moving clipper type system overnight Thursday will bring another
shot for light snow across northeast portions of the CWA through
Friday morning. The coldest day this week will arrive Saturday as
Canadian high pressure surges down into the central US. High
temperatures will only make it to the teens across the northeast
half of the CWA with 20 to maybe low 30s further south and west.

The next system to keep an eye on will impact the region Saturday
night and Sunday with the potential for rain, snow, and a wintry mix
throughout the day. Long-range models still have a few differences
in timing and location of the system, and this will affect the
timing of precipitation and potential precip types. Right now
temperatures look to stay near or slightly above freezing late
Sunday morning and afternoon, so timing will be an important factor
in precip impacts. For now have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast
for areas that look to reach near to above freezing.

After the weekend system moves out, above normal temperatures return
to the region and might lead to a bit of spring fever as highs
approach the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Overnight low level stratus still on tap, but it looks like the
saturated (cloud bearing) level will be rather thin so there could be
off and on periods of breaks in the clouds. Some mixed signals about
when the clouds will scatter, but right now it looks like the favored
time for VFR conditions to return will be shortly after sunrise on
Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 102330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Quite a temperature gradient across the CWA this afternoon with
highs in the 20s and low 30s throughout the northeast half and 40s
and low 50s across the southwest. A quick little clipper system
moving through strong northwest flow aloft brought a quick inch of
snow to much of north-central and central Missouri. This snowband
will rapidly taper off over the next several hours. Further to the
southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to
gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This has also helped to erode much of
the cloud cover across this area.

Low stratus deck will build back over the CWA tonight as surface low
drops southward into Oklahoma and surface high migrates southward
out of the Northern Plains. Winds will become more northerly tonight
behind the departing system and will allow for sufficient mixing in
the boundary layer to mitigate the potential for fog. Another quick
moving clipper type system overnight Thursday will bring another
shot for light snow across northeast portions of the CWA through
Friday morning. The coldest day this week will arrive Saturday as
Canadian high pressure surges down into the central US. High
temperatures will only make it to the teens across the northeast
half of the CWA with 20 to maybe low 30s further south and west.

The next system to keep an eye on will impact the region Saturday
night and Sunday with the potential for rain, snow, and a wintry mix
throughout the day. Long-range models still have a few differences
in timing and location of the system, and this will affect the
timing of precipitation and potential precip types. Right now
temperatures look to stay near or slightly above freezing late
Sunday morning and afternoon, so timing will be an important factor
in precip impacts. For now have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast
for areas that look to reach near to above freezing.

After the weekend system moves out, above normal temperatures return
to the region and might lead to a bit of spring fever as highs
approach the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Overnight low level stratus still on tap, but it looks like the
saturated (cloud bearing) level will be rather thin so there could be
off and on periods of breaks in the clouds. Some mixed signals about
when the clouds will scatter, but right now it looks like the favored
time for VFR conditions to return will be shortly after sunrise on
Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 102210
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
410 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Quite a temperature gradient across the CWA this afternoon with
highs in the 20s and low 30s throughout the northeast half and 40s
and low 50s across the southwest. A quick little clipper system
moving through strong northwest flow aloft brought a quick inch of
snow to much of north-central and central Missouri. This snowband
will rapidly taper off over the next several hours. Further to the
southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to
gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. This has also helped to erode much of
the cloud cover across this area.

Low stratus deck will build back over the CWA tonight as surface low
drops southward into Oklahoma and surface high migrates southward
out of the Northern Plains. Winds will become more northerly tonight
behind the departing system and will allow for sufficient mixing in
the boundary layer to mitigate the potential for fog. Another quick
moving clipper type system overnight Thursday will bring another
shot for light snow across northeast portions of the CWA through
Friday morning. The coldest day this week will arrive Saturday as
Canadian high pressure surges down into the central US. High
temperatures will only make it to the teens across the northeast
half of the CWA with 20 to maybe low 30s further south and west.

The next system to keep an eye on will impact the region Saturday
night and Sunday with the potential for rain, snow, and a wintry mix
throughout the day. Long-range models still have a few differences
in timing and location of the system, and this will affect the
timing of precipitation and potential precip types. Right now
temperatures look to stay near or slightly above freezing late
Sunday morning and afternoon, so timing will be an important factor
in precip impacts. For now have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast
for areas that look to reach near to above freezing.

After the weekend system moves out, above normal temperatures return
to the region and might lead to a bit of spring fever as highs
approach the 50s and 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Stratus deck has been scattering out through the morning across
eastern KS and western MO. Mixing along and and south of this stratus
deck has led to breezy surface winds and clearing skies. Most, if not
all terminals, will clear by this afternoon but models build stratus
deck back across the region as high pressure moves into the region
overnight. Short term guidance and bufkit soundings try and develop a
brief period of light fog between 9-12Z. With terminals on the
western edge of high pressure, believe that winds will stay up enough
overnight to mitigate fog development. Stratus deck will try to erode
by late in the period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM





000
FXUS63 KEAX 101724
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1124 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

For today, will be watching the southeastward progress of a band of
light to moderate snow currently over the eastern Dakotas. The upper
jet streak and associated midlevel wave forcing this band of snow
will push into the eastern edge of the CWA this afternoon, resulting
in a few hour period of light snow accumulation. Column temperatures
will be too warm for dendritic growth, keeping snow:liquid ratios in
check despite fairly deep saturation and deep but fairly weak lift;
therefore, total snow accumulations should be around an inch or less.
These accumulations and the overall impact without wind or mixed
precipitation should be sub-advisory level; however travel could be
hampered this afternoon and evening mainly from Bethany to Boonville
and areas east.

Temperatures this afternoon will range widely from the 20s to lower
30s where snow is expected to near 50 in southwestern portions of
the CWA where more abundant sunshine -- and more importantly, SW
winds mixing down +4 to +5 925 hPa temperatures -- will support
stronger surface warming. The lower-level reflection of the upper
wave will then push through tonight, bringing winds back to the east
northeast and holding Thursday highs in the mid 20s to 30s.

Rollercoaster temperatures will continue for the end of the work
week and into the weekend as warm air continues its attempt to build
eastward and a series of shortwave bat it back to the south and west.
Afternoon temperatures Friday will to rise into the 40s to near 50
again across eastern KS and portions of west central MO, then the
coldest day of the forecast period will come Saturday as chilly
Canadian high pressure surges down from the Dakotas and into central
Iowa, forcing temperatures into the single digits to teens Saturday
AM and only allowing a slight diurnal rise into the 20s by the
afternoon. The only location with steadier temperatures will be
parts of northeast and eastern MO, which will be more influenced by
the upper trough across the eastern CONUS, and will struggle to warm
out of the 20s on any given day.

Precipitation continues to look possible as a shortwave trough
drops through the region on Sunday, although the EC has flopped back
to a more split solution with a defined surface low that treks south
of the region and a break in precipitation across the majority of
the forecast area. Either way, main precipitation type is likely to
be very light snow *if* it occurs, but the potential for no
precipitation pushes blended consensus temperatures too warm to
support all snow and have had to keep the R/S mix mention in areas
that could reach the upper 30s Sunday.

Good news for anyone coming down with a serious case of spring fever;
the trend for much warmer temperatures begins after the Sunday
system, and highs in the 50s to maybe even 60s look possible by the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Stratus deck has been scattering out through the morning across
eastern KS and western MO. Mixing along and and south of this stratus
deck has led to breezy surface winds and clearing skies. Most, if not
all terminals, will clear by this afternoon but models build stratus
deck back across the region as high pressure moves into the region
overnight. Short term guidance and bufkit soundings try and develop a
brief period of light fog between 9-12Z. With terminals on the
western edge of high pressure, believe that winds will stay up enough
overnight to mitigate fog development. Stratus deck will try to erode
by late in the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM





000
FXUS63 KEAX 101151
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
551 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

For today, will be watching the southeastward progress of a band of
light to moderate snow currently over the eastern Dakotas. The upper
jet streak and associated midlevel wave forcing this band of snow
will push into the eastern edge of the CWA this afternoon, resulting
in a few hour period of light snow accumulation. Column temperatures
will be too warm for dendritic growth, keeping snow:liquid ratios in
check despite fairly deep saturation and deep but fairly weak lift;
therefore, total snow accumulations should be around an inch or less.
These accumulations and the overall impact without wind or mixed
precipitation should be sub-advisory level; however travel could be
hampered this afternoon and evening mainly from Bethany to Boonville
and areas east.

Temperatures this afternoon will range widely from the 20s to lower
30s where snow is expected to near 50 in southwestern portions of
the CWA where more abundant sunshine -- and more importantly, SW
winds mixing down +4 to +5 925 hPa temperatures -- will support
stronger surface warming. The lower-level reflection of the upper
wave will then push through tonight, bringing winds back to the east
northeast and holding Thursday highs in the mid 20s to 30s.

Rollercoaster temperatures will continue for the end of the work
week and into the weekend as warm air continues its attempt to build
eastward and a series of shortwave bat it back to the south and west.
Afternoon temperatures Friday will to rise into the 40s to near 50
again across eastern KS and portions of west central MO, then the
coldest day of the forecast period will come Saturday as chilly
Canadian high pressure surges down from the Dakotas and into central
Iowa, forcing temperatures into the single digits to teens Saturday
AM and only allowing a slight diurnal rise into the 20s by the
afternoon. The only location with steadier temperatures will be
parts of northeast and eastern MO, which will be more influenced by
the upper trough across the eastern CONUS, and will struggle to warm
out of the 20s on any given day.

Precipitation continues to look possible as a shortwave trough
drops through the region on Sunday, although the EC has flopped back
to a more split solution with a defined surface low that treks south
of the region and a break in precipitation across the majority of
the forecast area. Either way, main precipitation type is likely to
be very light snow *if* it occurs, but the potential for no
precipitation pushes blended consensus temperatures too warm to
support all snow and have had to keep the R/S mix mention in areas
that could reach the upper 30s Sunday.

Good news for anyone coming down with a serious case of spring fever;
the trend for much warmer temperatures begins after the Sunday
system, and highs in the 50s to maybe even 60s look possible by the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Areas of stratus and light snow will continue to push down into the
region this morning; however, any notable snow and and the lowest
ceilings will remain just east of all TAF sites. A brief period of
flurries is possible at STJ and perhaps at MCI this morning, but
should not significantly reduce the visibility or accumulate. Stratus
will pull east of the terminals by 18z, leaving skies mainly clear
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Another round of
stratus will build in from the north after 03z, however ceilings
should remain above 3 kft. Winds will remain out of the south to
southwest during the daylight hours, then will back to the east
northeast after sunset.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 101151
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
551 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

For today, will be watching the southeastward progress of a band of
light to moderate snow currently over the eastern Dakotas. The upper
jet streak and associated midlevel wave forcing this band of snow
will push into the eastern edge of the CWA this afternoon, resulting
in a few hour period of light snow accumulation. Column temperatures
will be too warm for dendritic growth, keeping snow:liquid ratios in
check despite fairly deep saturation and deep but fairly weak lift;
therefore, total snow accumulations should be around an inch or less.
These accumulations and the overall impact without wind or mixed
precipitation should be sub-advisory level; however travel could be
hampered this afternoon and evening mainly from Bethany to Boonville
and areas east.

Temperatures this afternoon will range widely from the 20s to lower
30s where snow is expected to near 50 in southwestern portions of
the CWA where more abundant sunshine -- and more importantly, SW
winds mixing down +4 to +5 925 hPa temperatures -- will support
stronger surface warming. The lower-level reflection of the upper
wave will then push through tonight, bringing winds back to the east
northeast and holding Thursday highs in the mid 20s to 30s.

Rollercoaster temperatures will continue for the end of the work
week and into the weekend as warm air continues its attempt to build
eastward and a series of shortwave bat it back to the south and west.
Afternoon temperatures Friday will to rise into the 40s to near 50
again across eastern KS and portions of west central MO, then the
coldest day of the forecast period will come Saturday as chilly
Canadian high pressure surges down from the Dakotas and into central
Iowa, forcing temperatures into the single digits to teens Saturday
AM and only allowing a slight diurnal rise into the 20s by the
afternoon. The only location with steadier temperatures will be
parts of northeast and eastern MO, which will be more influenced by
the upper trough across the eastern CONUS, and will struggle to warm
out of the 20s on any given day.

Precipitation continues to look possible as a shortwave trough
drops through the region on Sunday, although the EC has flopped back
to a more split solution with a defined surface low that treks south
of the region and a break in precipitation across the majority of
the forecast area. Either way, main precipitation type is likely to
be very light snow *if* it occurs, but the potential for no
precipitation pushes blended consensus temperatures too warm to
support all snow and have had to keep the R/S mix mention in areas
that could reach the upper 30s Sunday.

Good news for anyone coming down with a serious case of spring fever;
the trend for much warmer temperatures begins after the Sunday
system, and highs in the 50s to maybe even 60s look possible by the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Areas of stratus and light snow will continue to push down into the
region this morning; however, any notable snow and and the lowest
ceilings will remain just east of all TAF sites. A brief period of
flurries is possible at STJ and perhaps at MCI this morning, but
should not significantly reduce the visibility or accumulate. Stratus
will pull east of the terminals by 18z, leaving skies mainly clear
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Another round of
stratus will build in from the north after 03z, however ceilings
should remain above 3 kft. Winds will remain out of the south to
southwest during the daylight hours, then will back to the east
northeast after sunset.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 101151
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
551 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

For today, will be watching the southeastward progress of a band of
light to moderate snow currently over the eastern Dakotas. The upper
jet streak and associated midlevel wave forcing this band of snow
will push into the eastern edge of the CWA this afternoon, resulting
in a few hour period of light snow accumulation. Column temperatures
will be too warm for dendritic growth, keeping snow:liquid ratios in
check despite fairly deep saturation and deep but fairly weak lift;
therefore, total snow accumulations should be around an inch or less.
These accumulations and the overall impact without wind or mixed
precipitation should be sub-advisory level; however travel could be
hampered this afternoon and evening mainly from Bethany to Boonville
and areas east.

Temperatures this afternoon will range widely from the 20s to lower
30s where snow is expected to near 50 in southwestern portions of
the CWA where more abundant sunshine -- and more importantly, SW
winds mixing down +4 to +5 925 hPa temperatures -- will support
stronger surface warming. The lower-level reflection of the upper
wave will then push through tonight, bringing winds back to the east
northeast and holding Thursday highs in the mid 20s to 30s.

Rollercoaster temperatures will continue for the end of the work
week and into the weekend as warm air continues its attempt to build
eastward and a series of shortwave bat it back to the south and west.
Afternoon temperatures Friday will to rise into the 40s to near 50
again across eastern KS and portions of west central MO, then the
coldest day of the forecast period will come Saturday as chilly
Canadian high pressure surges down from the Dakotas and into central
Iowa, forcing temperatures into the single digits to teens Saturday
AM and only allowing a slight diurnal rise into the 20s by the
afternoon. The only location with steadier temperatures will be
parts of northeast and eastern MO, which will be more influenced by
the upper trough across the eastern CONUS, and will struggle to warm
out of the 20s on any given day.

Precipitation continues to look possible as a shortwave trough
drops through the region on Sunday, although the EC has flopped back
to a more split solution with a defined surface low that treks south
of the region and a break in precipitation across the majority of
the forecast area. Either way, main precipitation type is likely to
be very light snow *if* it occurs, but the potential for no
precipitation pushes blended consensus temperatures too warm to
support all snow and have had to keep the R/S mix mention in areas
that could reach the upper 30s Sunday.

Good news for anyone coming down with a serious case of spring fever;
the trend for much warmer temperatures begins after the Sunday
system, and highs in the 50s to maybe even 60s look possible by the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Areas of stratus and light snow will continue to push down into the
region this morning; however, any notable snow and and the lowest
ceilings will remain just east of all TAF sites. A brief period of
flurries is possible at STJ and perhaps at MCI this morning, but
should not significantly reduce the visibility or accumulate. Stratus
will pull east of the terminals by 18z, leaving skies mainly clear
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Another round of
stratus will build in from the north after 03z, however ceilings
should remain above 3 kft. Winds will remain out of the south to
southwest during the daylight hours, then will back to the east
northeast after sunset.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 100927
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
327 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

For today, will be watching the southeastward progress of a band of
light to moderate snow currently over the eastern Dakotas. The upper
jet streak and associated midlevel wave forcing this band of snow
will push into the eastern edge of the CWA this afternoon, resulting
in a few hour period of light snow accumulation. Column temperatures
will be too warm for dendritic growth, keeping snow:liquid ratios in
check despite fairly deep saturation and deep but fairly weak lift;
therefore, total snow accumulations should be around an inch or less.
These accumulations and the overall impact without wind or mixed
precipitation should be sub-advisory level; however travel could be
hampered this afternoon and evening mainly from Bethany to Boonville
and areas east.

Temperatures this afternoon will range widely from the 20s to lower
30s where snow is expected to near 50 in southwestern portions of
the CWA where more abundant sunshine -- and more importantly, SW
winds mixing down +4 to +5 925 hPa temperatures -- will support
stronger surface warming. The lower-level reflection of the upper
wave will then push through tonight, bringing winds back to the east
northeast and holding Thursday highs in the mid 20s to 30s.

Rollercoaster temperatures will continue for the end of the work
week and into the weekend as warm air continues its attempt to build
eastward and a series of shortwave bat it back to the south and west.
Afternoon temperatures Friday will to rise into the 40s to near 50
again across eastern KS and portions of west central MO, then the
coldest day of the forecast period will come Saturday as chilly
Canadian high pressure surges down from the Dakotas and into central
Iowa, forcing temperatures into the single digits to teens Saturday
AM and only allowing a slight diurnal rise into the 20s by the
afternoon. The only location with steadier temperatures will be
parts of northeast and eastern MO, which will be more influenced by
the upper trough across the eastern CONUS, and will struggle to warm
out of the 20s on any given day.

Precipitation continues to look possible as a shortwave trough
drops through the region on Sunday, although the EC has flopped back
to a more split solution with a defined surface low that treks south
of the region and a break in precipitation across the majority of
the forecast area. Either way, main precipitation type is likely to
be very light snow *if* it occurs, but the potential for no
precipitation pushes blended consensus temperatures too warm to
support all snow and have had to keep the R/S mix mention in areas
that could reach the upper 30s Sunday.

Good news for anyone coming down with a serious case of spring fever;
the trend for much warmer temperatures begins after the Sunday
system, and highs in the 50s to maybe even 60s look possible by the
end of the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Still expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period with winds
coming around to the south, then northeast by the end of the period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 100545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Still expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period with winds
coming around to the south, then northeast by the end of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 100545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Still expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period with winds
coming around to the south, then northeast by the end of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 100545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Still expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period with winds
coming around to the south, then northeast by the end of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 092323
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Made little change to the previous forecast, namely just the initial
conditions by indicating weakening winds. Expect gusts to wane
through the evening and be gone by the overnight hours. There could
be some low/mid level clouds on Wednesday, but should stay VFR.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 092323
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Made little change to the previous forecast, namely just the initial
conditions by indicating weakening winds. Expect gusts to wane
through the evening and be gone by the overnight hours. There could
be some low/mid level clouds on Wednesday, but should stay VFR.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 092323
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Made little change to the previous forecast, namely just the initial
conditions by indicating weakening winds. Expect gusts to wane
through the evening and be gone by the overnight hours. There could
be some low/mid level clouds on Wednesday, but should stay VFR.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 092108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Gusty northwest
winds to 28 kts will weaken this evening...before shifting to an
easterly or southeasterly trajectory Wednesday morning. SCT low
clouds this afternoon will begin to scatter out late today before
redeveloping overnight. Despite this...bases are expected to remain
MVFR thresholds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32




000
FXUS63 KEAX 092108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Gusty northwest
winds to 28 kts will weaken this evening...before shifting to an
easterly or southeasterly trajectory Wednesday morning. SCT low
clouds this afternoon will begin to scatter out late today before
redeveloping overnight. Despite this...bases are expected to remain
MVFR thresholds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 092108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On the large scale this afternoon...water vapor imagery showing a
deep upper closed low across the cntrl Great Lakes region with large
scale upper ridging in place across the American West. Closer to
home...we reside in-between these two features with fast meridional
flow prevailing overhead. Little overall change in the upper-level
height pattern is forecast over the next several days and as a
result...our region will see periodic bouts of wintry wx as fast
moving disturbances pass overhead. Before we dive into those
details however...expect a dry overnight with lows generally ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s out west...with single upper digits
lows expected across far north-central Missouri.

The first in two weather systems of interest in the current forecast
package is set to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hrs
on Wednesday...as fast moving wave slides over the area. Fcst models
have been in excellent agreement that the bulk of this activity will
remain east of the KC Metro as the Great Lakes closed low slowly
nudges east with time. As a result...minor snow accumulations
(generally less than 1") will be confined to areas east of Route
36...with precip generally coming to an end by 10 PM Wednesday night.
Overall...feature should pass with little very little overall impacts.

After the departure of this system...models agree that strong high
pressure will begin building south across the upper Miss Rvr Vly.
This should result in cooler temps Thurs afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 30s across much of the area. In
fact...mid to upper 20s look reasonable up towards the IA state line.
This initial bout of cooler wx will be short lived however as the
frontal boundary responsible for cooler air on Thurs begins to
retreat northward early Friday as secondary low pressure develops
across the central High Plains. This should allow for a temporary
recovery in temps with low to mid 40s looking reasonable on Friday.

Beyond this...very cold air looks to reinvade the area on Saturday as
northern Plains/upper Miss Vly surface ridge axis sharpens with
time. This will occur as high pressure of approximately 1045 mb
slides east into the western Great Lakes region on Saturday. With
brisk north winds prevailing through the day...afternoon highs will
likely struggle to make it out of the 20s across much of the fcst
area. This will unfortunately set the stage for a wintry mix of
precipitation for Sunday as the second wx disturbance of interest
passes overhead through the day. Quick look at several GFS BUFKIT
soundings show very little saturation in the snow growth
region...which if realized...could result in a FZRA/FZDZ scenario
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Obviously this event bears watching but
for now...will continue to advertise a RA/SN mix for Sunday due to
distance into the fcst period and lack of additional high resolution
extended model data. Beyond this system...dry air looks to move back
into the area for the start of next week with temperatures warming
nicely as westerly downslope flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Gusty northwest
winds to 28 kts will weaken this evening...before shifting to an
easterly or southeasterly trajectory Wednesday morning. SCT low
clouds this afternoon will begin to scatter out late today before
redeveloping overnight. Despite this...bases are expected to remain
MVFR thresholds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 091714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1114 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Upper-level troughing will pervade from the Great Lakes through the
eastern CONUS this week and into the weekend, resulting in chilly
but mainly dry conditions throughout the CWA. Fluctuations in the
strength and westward extent of the upper trough will allow highs to
vary from the upper 20s to the middle 40s this week, and will also
be moderated by cloud cover from weak, passing waves dropping down
the back side of the upper trough.

In the very near term, the main concern will be fire danger this
afternoon as dewpoints mix down into the single digits and northwest
winds continue to gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Chilly highs in
the 20s to lower 30s should keep the RH somewhat moderate and thus
should keep the overall fire danger below a critical level, but the
breezy conditions and dry fuels may still promote the spread of
fires should one start.

Broad, weak lift associated with the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak will combine with pacific moisture rounding the
ridge across the western U.S. on Wednesday afternoon, supporting a
quick shot of light snow across the northeastern half to third of
the CWA. Saturation will be fairly deep but occurs above -10 C and
does not extend down into the boundary layer; thus snow rates should
be fairly light, and snow amounts will total less than an inch, even
in far northwest MO where the combination of lift and moisture will
be most efficient.

Although timing is a smidge different in the EC and GFS, both models
appear to indicate warming in between surges of upper low pressure
late Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact timing, slightly
above normal high temperatures are possible -- especially across
southwestern portions of the forecast area -- on Friday. Cooler air
will move back in for Saturday; however, keeping the warming trend
short lived.

Precipitation continues to look possible Sunday or Monday as a
shortwave trough digs from the Northern Plains through the Missouri
Valley, dragging a surface low and associated cold front through the
region. Precipitation type will depend on how far south the trough
drops, and the antecedent conditions as a result of the timing of
the system. Either way, the track and depth of the surface low does
not support much accumulation or a long duration of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Gusty northwest
winds to 28 kts will weaken this evening...before shifting to an
easterly or southeasterly trajectory Wednesday morning. SCT low
clouds this afternoon will begin to scatter out late today before
redeveloping overnight. Despite this...bases are expected to remain
MVFR thresholds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 091714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1114 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Upper-level troughing will pervade from the Great Lakes through the
eastern CONUS this week and into the weekend, resulting in chilly
but mainly dry conditions throughout the CWA. Fluctuations in the
strength and westward extent of the upper trough will allow highs to
vary from the upper 20s to the middle 40s this week, and will also
be moderated by cloud cover from weak, passing waves dropping down
the back side of the upper trough.

In the very near term, the main concern will be fire danger this
afternoon as dewpoints mix down into the single digits and northwest
winds continue to gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Chilly highs in
the 20s to lower 30s should keep the RH somewhat moderate and thus
should keep the overall fire danger below a critical level, but the
breezy conditions and dry fuels may still promote the spread of
fires should one start.

Broad, weak lift associated with the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak will combine with pacific moisture rounding the
ridge across the western U.S. on Wednesday afternoon, supporting a
quick shot of light snow across the northeastern half to third of
the CWA. Saturation will be fairly deep but occurs above -10 C and
does not extend down into the boundary layer; thus snow rates should
be fairly light, and snow amounts will total less than an inch, even
in far northwest MO where the combination of lift and moisture will
be most efficient.

Although timing is a smidge different in the EC and GFS, both models
appear to indicate warming in between surges of upper low pressure
late Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact timing, slightly
above normal high temperatures are possible -- especially across
southwestern portions of the forecast area -- on Friday. Cooler air
will move back in for Saturday; however, keeping the warming trend
short lived.

Precipitation continues to look possible Sunday or Monday as a
shortwave trough digs from the Northern Plains through the Missouri
Valley, dragging a surface low and associated cold front through the
region. Precipitation type will depend on how far south the trough
drops, and the antecedent conditions as a result of the timing of
the system. Either way, the track and depth of the surface low does
not support much accumulation or a long duration of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Gusty northwest
winds to 28 kts will weaken this evening...before shifting to an
easterly or southeasterly trajectory Wednesday morning. SCT low
clouds this afternoon will begin to scatter out late today before
redeveloping overnight. Despite this...bases are expected to remain
MVFR thresholds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 091714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1114 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Upper-level troughing will pervade from the Great Lakes through the
eastern CONUS this week and into the weekend, resulting in chilly
but mainly dry conditions throughout the CWA. Fluctuations in the
strength and westward extent of the upper trough will allow highs to
vary from the upper 20s to the middle 40s this week, and will also
be moderated by cloud cover from weak, passing waves dropping down
the back side of the upper trough.

In the very near term, the main concern will be fire danger this
afternoon as dewpoints mix down into the single digits and northwest
winds continue to gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Chilly highs in
the 20s to lower 30s should keep the RH somewhat moderate and thus
should keep the overall fire danger below a critical level, but the
breezy conditions and dry fuels may still promote the spread of
fires should one start.

Broad, weak lift associated with the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak will combine with pacific moisture rounding the
ridge across the western U.S. on Wednesday afternoon, supporting a
quick shot of light snow across the northeastern half to third of
the CWA. Saturation will be fairly deep but occurs above -10 C and
does not extend down into the boundary layer; thus snow rates should
be fairly light, and snow amounts will total less than an inch, even
in far northwest MO where the combination of lift and moisture will
be most efficient.

Although timing is a smidge different in the EC and GFS, both models
appear to indicate warming in between surges of upper low pressure
late Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact timing, slightly
above normal high temperatures are possible -- especially across
southwestern portions of the forecast area -- on Friday. Cooler air
will move back in for Saturday; however, keeping the warming trend
short lived.

Precipitation continues to look possible Sunday or Monday as a
shortwave trough digs from the Northern Plains through the Missouri
Valley, dragging a surface low and associated cold front through the
region. Precipitation type will depend on how far south the trough
drops, and the antecedent conditions as a result of the timing of
the system. Either way, the track and depth of the surface low does
not support much accumulation or a long duration of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Gusty northwest
winds to 28 kts will weaken this evening...before shifting to an
easterly or southeasterly trajectory Wednesday morning. SCT low
clouds this afternoon will begin to scatter out late today before
redeveloping overnight. Despite this...bases are expected to remain
MVFR thresholds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32




000
FXUS63 KEAX 091146
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
546 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Upper-level troughing will pervade from the Great Lakes through the
eastern CONUS this week and into the weekend, resulting in chilly
but mainly dry conditions throughout the CWA. Fluctuations in the
strength and westward extent of the upper trough will allow highs to
vary from the upper 20s to the middle 40s this week, and will also
be moderated by cloud cover from weak, passing waves dropping down
the back side of the upper trough.

In the very near term, the main concern will be fire danger this
afternoon as dewpoints mix down into the single digits and northwest
winds continue to gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Chilly highs in
the 20s to lower 30s should keep the RH somewhat moderate and thus
should keep the overall fire danger below a critical level, but the
breezy conditions and dry fuels may still promote the spread of
fires should one start.

Broad, weak lift associated with the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak will combine with pacific moisture rounding the
ridge across the western U.S. on Wednesday afternoon, supporting a
quick shot of light snow across the northeastern half to third of
the CWA. Saturation will be fairly deep but occurs above -10 C and
does not extend down into the boundary layer; thus snow rates should
be fairly light, and snow amounts will total less than an inch, even
in far northwest MO where the combination of lift and moisture will
be most efficient.

Although timing is a smidge different in the EC and GFS, both models
appear to indicate warming in between surges of upper low pressure
late Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact timing, slightly
above normal high temperatures are possible -- especially across
southwestern portions of the forecast area -- on Friday. Cooler air
will move back in for Saturday; however, keeping the warming trend
short lived.

Precipitation continues to look possible Sunday or Monday as a
shortwave trough digs from the Northern Plains through the Missouri
Valley, dragging a surface low and associated cold front through the
region. Precipitation type will depend on how far south the trough
drops, and the antecedent conditions as a result of the timing of
the system. Either way, the track and depth of the surface low does
not support much accumulation or a long duration of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 546 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR and breezy conditions will continue today, with scattered
ceilings around 10-15 kft and sustained northwest winds of 15 to
20 kts occasionally gusting to 30 kts. Gusts should drop off
after 02-03z Wednesday, but sustained speeds will likely remain
above 10 kts throughout the TAF period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 090918
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Upper-level troughing will pervade from the Great Lakes through the
eastern CONUS this week and into the weekend, resulting in chilly
but mainly dry conditions throughout the CWA. Fluctuations in the
strength and westward extent of the upper trough will allow highs to
vary from the upper 20s to the middle 40s this week, and will also
be moderated by cloud cover from weak, passing waves dropping down
the back side of the upper trough.

In the very near term, the main concern will be fire danger this
afternoon as dewpoints mix down into the single digits and northwest
winds continue to gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Chilly highs in
the 20s to lower 30s should keep the RH somewhat moderate and thus
should keep the overall fire danger below a critical level, but the
breezy conditions and dry fuels may still promote the spread of
fires should one start.

Broad, weak lift associated with the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak will combine with pacific moisture rounding the
ridge across the western U.S. on Wednesday afternoon, supporting a
quick shot of light snow across the northeastern half to third of
the CWA. Saturation will be fairly deep but occurs above -10 C and
does not extend down into the boundary layer; thus snow rates should
be fairly light, and snow amounts will total less than an inch, even
in far northwest MO where the combination of lift and moisture will
be most efficient.

Although timing is a smidge different in the EC and GFS, both models
appear to indicate warming in between surges of upper low pressure
late Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact timing, slightly
above normal high temperatures are possible -- especially across
southwestern portions of the forecast area -- on Friday. Cooler air
will move back in for Saturday; however, keeping the warming trend
short lived.

Precipitation continues to look possible Sunday or Monday as a
shortwave trough digs from the Northern Plains through the Missouri
Valley, dragging a surface low and associated cold front through the
region. Precipitation type will depend on how far south the trough
drops, and the antecedent conditions as a result of the timing of
the system. Either way, the track and depth of the surface low does
not support much accumulation or a long duration of precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Strong and gusty winds from earlier today seem to have decoupled as
winds have dropped off to ranging from calm to 12 MPH from the
northwest. However, the pressure gradient and daytime mixing should
allow the gusty winds to mix back down by 14Z. Otherwise, what cloud
are out there should be well in the VFR range for the day. Currently,
lower clouds, in the MVFR range, look possible just beyond the end
of this TAF cycle.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter





000
FXUS63 KEAX 090918
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Upper-level troughing will pervade from the Great Lakes through the
eastern CONUS this week and into the weekend, resulting in chilly
but mainly dry conditions throughout the CWA. Fluctuations in the
strength and westward extent of the upper trough will allow highs to
vary from the upper 20s to the middle 40s this week, and will also
be moderated by cloud cover from weak, passing waves dropping down
the back side of the upper trough.

In the very near term, the main concern will be fire danger this
afternoon as dewpoints mix down into the single digits and northwest
winds continue to gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Chilly highs in
the 20s to lower 30s should keep the RH somewhat moderate and thus
should keep the overall fire danger below a critical level, but the
breezy conditions and dry fuels may still promote the spread of
fires should one start.

Broad, weak lift associated with the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak will combine with pacific moisture rounding the
ridge across the western U.S. on Wednesday afternoon, supporting a
quick shot of light snow across the northeastern half to third of
the CWA. Saturation will be fairly deep but occurs above -10 C and
does not extend down into the boundary layer; thus snow rates should
be fairly light, and snow amounts will total less than an inch, even
in far northwest MO where the combination of lift and moisture will
be most efficient.

Although timing is a smidge different in the EC and GFS, both models
appear to indicate warming in between surges of upper low pressure
late Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact timing, slightly
above normal high temperatures are possible -- especially across
southwestern portions of the forecast area -- on Friday. Cooler air
will move back in for Saturday; however, keeping the warming trend
short lived.

Precipitation continues to look possible Sunday or Monday as a
shortwave trough digs from the Northern Plains through the Missouri
Valley, dragging a surface low and associated cold front through the
region. Precipitation type will depend on how far south the trough
drops, and the antecedent conditions as a result of the timing of
the system. Either way, the track and depth of the surface low does
not support much accumulation or a long duration of precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Strong and gusty winds from earlier today seem to have decoupled as
winds have dropped off to ranging from calm to 12 MPH from the
northwest. However, the pressure gradient and daytime mixing should
allow the gusty winds to mix back down by 14Z. Otherwise, what cloud
are out there should be well in the VFR range for the day. Currently,
lower clouds, in the MVFR range, look possible just beyond the end
of this TAF cycle.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KEAX 090918
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Upper-level troughing will pervade from the Great Lakes through the
eastern CONUS this week and into the weekend, resulting in chilly
but mainly dry conditions throughout the CWA. Fluctuations in the
strength and westward extent of the upper trough will allow highs to
vary from the upper 20s to the middle 40s this week, and will also
be moderated by cloud cover from weak, passing waves dropping down
the back side of the upper trough.

In the very near term, the main concern will be fire danger this
afternoon as dewpoints mix down into the single digits and northwest
winds continue to gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Chilly highs in
the 20s to lower 30s should keep the RH somewhat moderate and thus
should keep the overall fire danger below a critical level, but the
breezy conditions and dry fuels may still promote the spread of
fires should one start.

Broad, weak lift associated with the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak will combine with pacific moisture rounding the
ridge across the western U.S. on Wednesday afternoon, supporting a
quick shot of light snow across the northeastern half to third of
the CWA. Saturation will be fairly deep but occurs above -10 C and
does not extend down into the boundary layer; thus snow rates should
be fairly light, and snow amounts will total less than an inch, even
in far northwest MO where the combination of lift and moisture will
be most efficient.

Although timing is a smidge different in the EC and GFS, both models
appear to indicate warming in between surges of upper low pressure
late Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact timing, slightly
above normal high temperatures are possible -- especially across
southwestern portions of the forecast area -- on Friday. Cooler air
will move back in for Saturday; however, keeping the warming trend
short lived.

Precipitation continues to look possible Sunday or Monday as a
shortwave trough digs from the Northern Plains through the Missouri
Valley, dragging a surface low and associated cold front through the
region. Precipitation type will depend on how far south the trough
drops, and the antecedent conditions as a result of the timing of
the system. Either way, the track and depth of the surface low does
not support much accumulation or a long duration of precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Strong and gusty winds from earlier today seem to have decoupled as
winds have dropped off to ranging from calm to 12 MPH from the
northwest. However, the pressure gradient and daytime mixing should
allow the gusty winds to mix back down by 14Z. Otherwise, what cloud
are out there should be well in the VFR range for the day. Currently,
lower clouds, in the MVFR range, look possible just beyond the end
of this TAF cycle.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter





000
FXUS63 KEAX 090530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The area remains in a strongly cyclonic flow regime with trailing PV
slowly working east. This will likely keep isolated to scattered
flurries and snow showers going through at least this this evening.
But there will be a general downward trend in intensity and coverage
as the main storm system moves away and low level lapse rates/mixing
decreases. Winds will also begin to diminish later this afternoon and
this evening. With winds currently close to and in some cases
exceeding our criteria, will keep the advisory going as is. The
gusts should start to decrease though as sunset approaches and
mixing decreases.

Overall, the rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet. For Wednesday
afternoon and evening, in our far northeastern zones, there is some
indication that we may be clipped by a weak clipper system. There is
a decent area of transient frontogensis that clips the Kirksville
area and with temperatures well below freezing in that part of the
forecast they could see some light snow. Also, there may be a tight
temperature gradient Wednesday with the southwestern portions of the
forecast area warming into the 40s.

For this weekend, models are in good agreement plunging a strong
1040+ mb surface high into the Plains and Midwest. Have trended
quite a bit colder for Saturday`s highs and now looks like highs
won`t make it out the 20s for the KC area. There`s also an
indication of a weak shortwave trough moving through the area Sunday
into Monday. The GFS keeps this relatively dry while the ECMWF is
much more wet. Have maintained some low PoPs to account for the
passage of this system and the discrepancy in the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Strong and gusty winds from earlier today seem to have decoupled as
winds have dropped off to ranging from calm to 12 MPH from the
northwest. However, the pressure gradient and daytime mixing should
allow the gusty winds to mix back down by 14Z. Otherwise, what cloud
are out there should be well in the VFR range for the day. Currently,
lower clouds, in the MVFR range, look possible just beyond the end
of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter





000
FXUS63 KEAX 090530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The area remains in a strongly cyclonic flow regime with trailing PV
slowly working east. This will likely keep isolated to scattered
flurries and snow showers going through at least this this evening.
But there will be a general downward trend in intensity and coverage
as the main storm system moves away and low level lapse rates/mixing
decreases. Winds will also begin to diminish later this afternoon and
this evening. With winds currently close to and in some cases
exceeding our criteria, will keep the advisory going as is. The
gusts should start to decrease though as sunset approaches and
mixing decreases.

Overall, the rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet. For Wednesday
afternoon and evening, in our far northeastern zones, there is some
indication that we may be clipped by a weak clipper system. There is
a decent area of transient frontogensis that clips the Kirksville
area and with temperatures well below freezing in that part of the
forecast they could see some light snow. Also, there may be a tight
temperature gradient Wednesday with the southwestern portions of the
forecast area warming into the 40s.

For this weekend, models are in good agreement plunging a strong
1040+ mb surface high into the Plains and Midwest. Have trended
quite a bit colder for Saturday`s highs and now looks like highs
won`t make it out the 20s for the KC area. There`s also an
indication of a weak shortwave trough moving through the area Sunday
into Monday. The GFS keeps this relatively dry while the ECMWF is
much more wet. Have maintained some low PoPs to account for the
passage of this system and the discrepancy in the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Strong and gusty winds from earlier today seem to have decoupled as
winds have dropped off to ranging from calm to 12 MPH from the
northwest. However, the pressure gradient and daytime mixing should
allow the gusty winds to mix back down by 14Z. Otherwise, what cloud
are out there should be well in the VFR range for the day. Currently,
lower clouds, in the MVFR range, look possible just beyond the end
of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter




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