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000
FXUS63 KEAX 192335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
535 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Tonight: Low stratus has remained in place through the day, with
pockets of patchy drizzle and fog. Little change is expected
overnight, with low clouds remaining in place. Patchy fog will be
possible across the forecast area tonight, although the most
widespread and dense fog should be to the west of the CWA over
portions of central Kansas and central Nebraska. Model cross
sections reveal the deepest low-level moisture to remain over the
eastern half of the forecast area. Additionally, this area will be
collocated with periodic weak low-level ascent overnight, suggesting
the highest potential for drizzle will remain over the southeast
half of the CWA. Temperatures across the area will remain fairly
steady, only falling a few degrees overnight from current values.
Areas with the highest probability of drizzle (SE 1/2 CWA) should
generally remain at or above freezing overnight. Will closely
monitor outskirts of highest drizzle potential where slightly colder
temperatures will reside, but believe the overall threat/impact of
freezing drizzle appears low tonight based on anticipated minimum
temperatures and primary drizzle domain.

Saturday/Sunday: The upper pattern flattens on Saturday with low
clouds expected to remain in place through much of the day. There is
a slight chance some areas may mix sufficiently to allow a few peaks
of sun by tomorrow afternoon as the low-level saturation becomes
shallower. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, with
highs reaching the upper 30s to middle 40s. The majority of any
remnant drizzle or fog should end by mid morning, with patchy
drizzle not returning until late Saturday night into Sunday as
additional warm air advection and ascent arrive. Highs on Sunday
will continue to warm into the middle to upper 40s, along with
surface moisture steadily increasing.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: The upper pattern will transition by
early next week, with a 140+kt upper jet diving towards the front
range of the Rockies. An upper trough will amplify with a series of
vorticity maximums rotating around the upper low. Precipitation
chances will increase Sunday night and especially on Monday as
strong upper ascent and a surface cold front moves through the area.
Precipitation is expected to be in the from of rain as all the
lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm sector. Drier air
will move in behind the front Monday evening, bringing an end to the
most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and
model soundings show much of northwest Missouri to support snow or a
rain-snow mix during this time. With model differences and details
still unresolvable, it is too early to determine snow specifics, but
accumulations look to be on the light side, if any. As for
temperatures Tuesday, a much colder day is expected with afternoon
readings generally in the 30s with cloudy skies and breezy
northwesterly winds.

Extended: Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will initially be
near seasonal averages, with readings gradually warming. The
forecast is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Models
have diverged with the behavior of the shortwave trough that moves
from northern California on Wednesday and moving into the Plains on
Thursday and Friday, with a large spread on the degree of
amplification over the region by Friday. Likewise, this has a
significant determination to the anticipated weather and
precipitation chances. The general track of the system would keep
the forecast area in the warm sector, yielding warmer temperatures
and primarily a rain-type event. Still, a good deal of uncertainty
remains and will closely watch the evolution of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate this evening
and overnight into the IFR or LIFR categories at all TAF sites. Some
light patchy drizzle is possible along with the patchy fog, but
should slide east of the terminals with time and is not expected to
create any impact. Ceilings will gradually lift during the late
morning hours Saturday, but will likely remain IFR through most of
the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Tonight: Low stratus has remained in place through the day, with
pockets of patchy drizzle and fog. Little change is expected
overnight, with low clouds remaining in place. Patchy fog will be
possible across the forecast area tonight, although the most
widespread and dense fog should be to the west of the CWA over
portions of central Kansas and central Nebraska. Model cross
sections reveal the deepest low-level moisture to remain over the
eastern half of the forecast area. Additionally, this area will be
collocated with periodic weak low-level ascent overnight, suggesting
the highest potential for drizzle will remain over the southeast
half of the CWA. Temperatures across the area will remain fairly
steady, only falling a few degrees overnight from current values.
Areas with the highest probability of drizzle (SE 1/2 CWA) should
generally remain at or above freezing overnight. Will closely
monitor outskirts of highest drizzle potential where slightly colder
temperatures will reside, but believe the overall threat/impact of
freezing drizzle appears low tonight based on anticipated minimum
temperatures and primary drizzle domain.

Saturday/Sunday: The upper pattern flattens on Saturday with low
clouds expected to remain in place through much of the day. There is
a slight chance some areas may mix sufficiently to allow a few peaks
of sun by tomorrow afternoon as the low-level saturation becomes
shallower. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, with
highs reaching the upper 30s to middle 40s. The majority of any
remnant drizzle or fog should end by mid morning, with patchy
drizzle not returning until late Saturday night into Sunday as
additional warm air advection and ascent arrive. Highs on Sunday
will continue to warm into the middle to upper 40s, along with
surface moisture steadily increasing.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: The upper pattern will transition by
early next week, with a 140+kt upper jet diving towards the front
range of the Rockies. An upper trough will amplify with a series of
vorticity maximums rotating around the upper low. Precipitation
chances will increase Sunday night and especially on Monday as
strong upper ascent and a surface cold front moves through the area.
Precipitation is expected to be in the from of rain as all the
lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm sector. Drier air
will move in behind the front Monday evening, bringing an end to the
most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and
model soundings show much of northwest Missouri to support snow or a
rain-snow mix during this time. With model differences and details
still unresolvable, it is too early to determine snow specifics, but
accumulations look to be on the light side, if any. As for
temperatures Tuesday, a much colder day is expected with afternoon
readings generally in the 30s with cloudy skies and breezy
northwesterly winds.

Extended: Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will initially be
near seasonal averages, with readings gradually warming. The
forecast is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Models
have diverged with the behavior of the shortwave trough that moves
from northern California on Wednesday and moving into the Plains on
Thursday and Friday, with a large spread on the degree of
amplification over the region by Friday. Likewise, this has a
significant determination to the anticipated weather and
precipitation chances. The general track of the system would keep
the forecast area in the warm sector, yielding warmer temperatures
and primarily a rain-type event. Still, a good deal of uncertainty
remains and will closely watch the evolution of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Low-level moisture will remain in place with southerly flow through
the period. Expecting IFR ceilings for the most part with possible
windows of MVFR conditions in the afternoon hours. Tonight,
conditions are favorable for fog development while light winds out of
the south will help maintain the fog through sunrise. Expecting to
see LIFR ceilings in addition to periodic LIFR visibilities
overnight. Gradual lifting will occur around 15Z, though IFR ceilings
look to remain in place through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Short term (Today through Sunday):

The short term will feature a warming trend through the period this
however, will be despite cloudy skies, nocturnal and morning fog, as
well as periodic drizzle.

Today, an upper level trough will move from the southern Plains into
the lower Mississippi Valley keeping all sensible weather south of
the area. However, model soundings are consistent in keeping the
first 4kft of the column saturated over the area. This would allow
for patchy period drizzle. Weak southerly flow will allow
temperatures to warm slightly with highs mainly in the mid 30s. Weak
WAA will continue Friday night helping to keep the low level
saturated and continuing drizzle chances as well as aiding in fog
development. On Saturday, continued weak WAA as well as warming H850
temps will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Sounding profiles do dry out enough in the lower 4kft to preclude
drizzle across the southern CWA however, soundings continue to show
saturation from the surface to 4kft across the northern CWA and it
is here that patchy drizzle will again be possible. Increased WAA on
Sunday will help to raise temperatures into the 40s. It will also
increase the influx of low level moisture into the area on Sunday.
Forcing will be lacking during the day on Sunday which will keep
rain at bay however, patchy drizzle will again be possible.

Extended Forecast (Sunday night through Thursday):

The main system of interest in this forecast package will fall in
the beginning of this timeframe. This system, in the form of an
upper level trough, will come on shore in the Pacific northwest on
Saturday night. By Sunday night it will quickly move into the
northern Plains with an associated cold front extending south. This
front will approach the area late Sunday night or Monday morning
spreading rain into the forecast area. Rain will continue across the
forecast during the day Monday as the cold front does not move the
the CWA until late in the day. Strong southerly flow out ahead of
the front will help temperatures rise into the mid 40s to near 50.
Model solutions begin to diverge Monday night as the GFS takes a
closed low over north central and moves it northeastward into the
Great Lakes. This would provide for a general dry conditions behind
the front on Monday night and Tuesday with just some very light snow
or flurries. The EC on the other hand, drive the upper low
southeastward from northwestern Iowa into northeastern Missouri by
Tuesday night. This solution would provide for a prolonged period of
light snow persisting from Monday night into early Wednesday with
light accumulations. With quite different solutions, have maintained
the initialization for the superblend in keeping low end chance POPs
across my east for Monday night and Tuesday and just slight chance
across the western CWA. Conditions then look to dry out for
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with near average temperatures in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Low-level moisture will remain in place with southerly flow through
the period. Expecting IFR ceilings for the most part with possible
windows of MVFR conditions in the afternoon hours. Tonight,
conditions are favorable for fog development while light winds out of
the south will help maintain the fog through sunrise. Expecting to
see LIFR ceilings in addition to periodic LIFR visibilities
overnight. Gradual lifting will occur around 15Z, though IFR ceilings
look to remain in place through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Short term (Today through Sunday):

The short term will feature a warming trend through the period this
however, will be despite cloudy skies, nocturnal and morning fog, as
well as periodic drizzle.

Today, an upper level trough will move from the southern Plains into
the lower Mississippi Valley keeping all sensible weather south of
the area. However, model soundings are consistent in keeping the
first 4kft of the column saturated over the area. This would allow
for patchy period drizzle. Weak southerly flow will allow
temperatures to warm slightly with highs mainly in the mid 30s. Weak
WAA will continue Friday night helping to keep the low level
saturated and continuing drizzle chances as well as aiding in fog
development. On Saturday, continued weak WAA as well as warming H850
temps will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Sounding profiles do dry out enough in the lower 4kft to preclude
drizzle across the southern CWA however, soundings continue to show
saturation from the surface to 4kft across the northern CWA and it
is here that patchy drizzle will again be possible. Increased WAA on
Sunday will help to raise temperatures into the 40s. It will also
increase the influx of low level moisture into the area on Sunday.
Forcing will be lacking during the day on Sunday which will keep
rain at bay however, patchy drizzle will again be possible.

Extended Forecast (Sunday night through Thursday):

The main system of interest in this forecast package will fall in
the beginning of this timeframe. This system, in the form of an
upper level trough, will come on shore in the Pacific northwest on
Saturday night. By Sunday night it will quickly move into the
northern Plains with an associated cold front extending south. This
front will approach the area late Sunday night or Monday morning
spreading rain into the forecast area. Rain will continue across the
forecast during the day Monday as the cold front does not move the
the CWA until late in the day. Strong southerly flow out ahead of
the front will help temperatures rise into the mid 40s to near 50.
Model solutions begin to diverge Monday night as the GFS takes a
closed low over north central and moves it northeastward into the
Great Lakes. This would provide for a general dry conditions behind
the front on Monday night and Tuesday with just some very light snow
or flurries. The EC on the other hand, drive the upper low
southeastward from northwestern Iowa into northeastern Missouri by
Tuesday night. This solution would provide for a prolonged period of
light snow persisting from Monday night into early Wednesday with
light accumulations. With quite different solutions, have maintained
the initialization for the superblend in keeping low end chance POPs
across my east for Monday night and Tuesday and just slight chance
across the western CWA. Conditions then look to dry out for
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with near average temperatures in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Low-level moisture will remain in place with southerly flow through
the period. Expecting IFR ceilings for the most part with possible
windows of MVFR conditions in the afternoon hours. Tonight,
conditions are favorable for fog development while light winds out of
the south will help maintain the fog through sunrise. Expecting to
see LIFR ceilings in addition to periodic LIFR visibilities
overnight. Gradual lifting will occur around 15Z, though IFR ceilings
look to remain in place through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 191108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Short term (Today through Sunday):

The short term will feature a warming trend through the period this
however, will be despite cloudy skies, nocturnal and morning fog, as
well as periodic drizzle.

Today, an upper level trough will move from the southern Plains into
the lower Mississippi Valley keeping all sensible weather south of
the area. However, model soundings are consistent in keeping the
first 4kft of the column saturated over the area. This would allow
for patchy period drizzle. Weak southerly flow will allow
temperatures to warm slightly with highs mainly in the mid 30s. Weak
WAA will continue Friday night helping to keep the low level
saturated and continuing drizzle chances as well as aiding in fog
development. On Saturday, continued weak WAA as well as warming H850
temps will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Sounding profiles do dry out enough in the lower 4kft to preclude
drizzle across the southern CWA however, soundings continue to show
saturation from the surface to 4kft across the northern CWA and it
is here that patchy drizzle will again be possible. Increased WAA on
Sunday will help to raise temperatures into the 40s. It will also
increase the influx of low level moisture into the area on Sunday.
Forcing will be lacking during the day on Sunday which will keep
rain at bay however, patchy drizzle will again be possible.

Extended Forecast (Sunday night through Thursday):

The main system of interest in this forecast package will fall in
the beginning of this timeframe. This system, in the form of an
upper level trough, will come on shore in the Pacific northwest on
Saturday night. By Sunday night it will quickly move into the
northern Plains with an associated cold front extending south. This
front will approach the area late Sunday night or Monday morning
spreading rain into the forecast area. Rain will continue across the
forecast during the day Monday as the cold front does not move the
the CWA until late in the day. Strong southerly flow out ahead of
the front will help temperatures rise into the mid 40s to near 50.
Model solutions begin to diverge Monday night as the GFS takes a
closed low over north central and moves it northeastward into the
Great Lakes. This would provide for a general dry conditions behind
the front on Monday night and Tuesday with just some very light snow
or flurries. The EC on the other hand, drive the upper low
southeastward from northwestern Iowa into northeastern Missouri by
Tuesday night. This solution would provide for a prolonged period of
light snow persisting from Monday night into early Wednesday with
light accumulations. With quite different solutions, have maintained
the initialization for the superblend in keeping low end chance POPs
across my east for Monday night and Tuesday and just slight chance
across the western CWA. Conditions then look to dry out for
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with near average temperatures in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 508 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR cigs will prevail thru the period at MCI and IXD with MKC and STJ
perhaps seeing minor improvement to low MVFR this afternoon and
evening. Light fog will keep MCI btn 2-4SM today before dropping to
1SM and perhaps further after midnight. Otrw...light fog will be
possible at MKC thru the morning and into the afternoon reducing
vsbys to 5SM. Fog will then look to affect the rest of the terminals
tonight reducing vsbys to 4-5SM. Winds will be light thru the period
at all TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Short term (Today through Sunday):

The short term will feature a warming trend through the period this
however, will be despite cloudy skies, nocturnal and morning fog, as
well as periodic drizzle.

Today, an upper level trough will move from the southern Plains into
the lower Mississippi Valley keeping all sensible weather south of
the area. However, model soundings are consistent in keeping the
first 4kft of the column saturated over the area. This would allow
for patchy period drizzle. Weak southerly flow will allow
temperatures to warm slightly with highs mainly in the mid 30s. Weak
WAA will continue Friday night helping to keep the low level
saturated and continuing drizzle chances as well as aiding in fog
development. On Saturday, continued weak WAA as well as warming H850
temps will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Sounding profiles do dry out enough in the lower 4kft to preclude
drizzle across the southern CWA however, soundings continue to show
saturation from the surface to 4kft across the northern CWA and it
is here that patchy drizzle will again be possible. Increased WAA on
Sunday will help to raise temperatures into the 40s. It will also
increase the influx of low level moisture into the area on Sunday.
Forcing will be lacking during the day on Sunday which will keep
rain at bay however, patchy drizzle will again be possible.

Extended Forecast (Sunday night through Thursday):

The main system of interest in this forecast package will fall in
the beginning of this timeframe. This system, in the form of an
upper level trough, will come on shore in the Pacific northwest on
Saturday night. By Sunday night it will quickly move into the
northern Plains with an associated cold front extending south. This
front will approach the area late Sunday night or Monday morning
spreading rain into the forecast area. Rain will continue across the
forecast during the day Monday as the cold front does not move the
the CWA until late in the day. Strong southerly flow out ahead of
the front will help temperatures rise into the mid 40s to near 50.
Model solutions begin to diverge Monday night as the GFS takes a
closed low over north central and moves it northeastward into the
Great Lakes. This would provide for a general dry conditions behind
the front on Monday night and Tuesday with just some very light snow
or flurries. The EC on the other hand, drive the upper low
southeastward from northwestern Iowa into northeastern Missouri by
Tuesday night. This solution would provide for a prolonged period of
light snow persisting from Monday night into early Wednesday with
light accumulations. With quite different solutions, have maintained
the initialization for the superblend in keeping low end chance POPs
across my east for Monday night and Tuesday and just slight chance
across the western CWA. Conditions then look to dry out for
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with near average temperatures in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 508 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR cigs will prevail thru the period at MCI and IXD with MKC and STJ
perhaps seeing minor improvement to low MVFR this afternoon and
evening. Light fog will keep MCI btn 2-4SM today before dropping to
1SM and perhaps further after midnight. Otrw...light fog will be
possible at MKC thru the morning and into the afternoon reducing
vsbys to 5SM. Fog will then look to affect the rest of the terminals
tonight reducing vsbys to 4-5SM. Winds will be light thru the period
at all TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 190940
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Short term (Today through Sunday):

The short term will feature a warming trend through the period this
however, will be despite cloudy skies, nocturnal and morning fog, as
well as periodic drizzle.

Today, an upper level trough will move from the southern Plains into
the lower Mississippi Valley keeping all sensible weather south of
the area. However, model soundings are consistent in keeping the
first 4kft of the column saturated over the area. This would allow
for patchy period drizzle. Weak southerly flow will allow
temperatures to warm slightly with highs mainly in the mid 30s. Weak
WAA will continue Friday night helping to keep the low level
saturated and continuing drizzle chances as well as aiding in fog
development. On Saturday, continued weak WAA as well as warming H850
temps will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Sounding profiles do dry out enough in the lower 4kft to preclude
drizzle across the southern CWA however, soundings continue to show
saturation from the surface to 4kft across the northern CWA and it
is here that patchy drizzle will again be possible. Increased WAA on
Sunday will help to raise temperatures into the 40s. It will also
increase the influx of low level moisture into the area on Sunday.
Forcing will be lacking during the day on Sunday which will keep
rain at bay however, patchy drizzle will again be possible.

Extended Forecast (Sunday night through Thursday):

The main system of interest in this forecast package will fall in
the beginning of this timeframe. This system, in the form of an
upper level trough, will come on shore in the Pacific northwest on
Saturday night. By Sunday night it will quickly move into the
northern Plains with an associated cold front extending south. This
front will approach the area late Sunday night or Monday morning
spreading rain into the forecast area. Rain will continue across the
forecast during the day Monday as the cold front does not move the
the CWA until late in the day. Strong southerly flow out ahead of
the front will help temperatures rise into the mid 40s to near 50.
Model solutions begin to diverge Monday night as the GFS takes a
closed low over north central and moves it northeastward into the
Great Lakes. This would provide for a general dry conditions behind
the front on Monday night and Tuesday with just some very light snow
or flurries. The EC on the other hand, drive the upper low
southeastward from northwestern Iowa into northeastern Missouri by
Tuesday night. This solution would provide for a prolonged period of
light snow persisting from Monday night into early Wednesday with
light accumulations. With quite different solutions, have maintained
the initialization for the superblend in keeping low end chance POPs
across my east for Monday night and Tuesday and just slight chance
across the western CWA. Conditions then look to dry out for
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with near average temperatures in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist through at least 16z Friday as
surface high pressure continues to drift over the area and low
stratus helps trap in local moisture from this afternoon`s snow
melt. Patchy fog with isolated spots of dense fog will also continue
through at least mid- to late morning. Some improvement in ceilings
and visibility is possible by noon Friday, but am not confident
enough to lift all sites into the MVFR category at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 190940
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Short term (Today through Sunday):

The short term will feature a warming trend through the period this
however, will be despite cloudy skies, nocturnal and morning fog, as
well as periodic drizzle.

Today, an upper level trough will move from the southern Plains into
the lower Mississippi Valley keeping all sensible weather south of
the area. However, model soundings are consistent in keeping the
first 4kft of the column saturated over the area. This would allow
for patchy period drizzle. Weak southerly flow will allow
temperatures to warm slightly with highs mainly in the mid 30s. Weak
WAA will continue Friday night helping to keep the low level
saturated and continuing drizzle chances as well as aiding in fog
development. On Saturday, continued weak WAA as well as warming H850
temps will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Sounding profiles do dry out enough in the lower 4kft to preclude
drizzle across the southern CWA however, soundings continue to show
saturation from the surface to 4kft across the northern CWA and it
is here that patchy drizzle will again be possible. Increased WAA on
Sunday will help to raise temperatures into the 40s. It will also
increase the influx of low level moisture into the area on Sunday.
Forcing will be lacking during the day on Sunday which will keep
rain at bay however, patchy drizzle will again be possible.

Extended Forecast (Sunday night through Thursday):

The main system of interest in this forecast package will fall in
the beginning of this timeframe. This system, in the form of an
upper level trough, will come on shore in the Pacific northwest on
Saturday night. By Sunday night it will quickly move into the
northern Plains with an associated cold front extending south. This
front will approach the area late Sunday night or Monday morning
spreading rain into the forecast area. Rain will continue across the
forecast during the day Monday as the cold front does not move the
the CWA until late in the day. Strong southerly flow out ahead of
the front will help temperatures rise into the mid 40s to near 50.
Model solutions begin to diverge Monday night as the GFS takes a
closed low over north central and moves it northeastward into the
Great Lakes. This would provide for a general dry conditions behind
the front on Monday night and Tuesday with just some very light snow
or flurries. The EC on the other hand, drive the upper low
southeastward from northwestern Iowa into northeastern Missouri by
Tuesday night. This solution would provide for a prolonged period of
light snow persisting from Monday night into early Wednesday with
light accumulations. With quite different solutions, have maintained
the initialization for the superblend in keeping low end chance POPs
across my east for Monday night and Tuesday and just slight chance
across the western CWA. Conditions then look to dry out for
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with near average temperatures in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist through at least 16z Friday as
surface high pressure continues to drift over the area and low
stratus helps trap in local moisture from this afternoon`s snow
melt. Patchy fog with isolated spots of dense fog will also continue
through at least mid- to late morning. Some improvement in ceilings
and visibility is possible by noon Friday, but am not confident
enough to lift all sites into the MVFR category at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 190528
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Afternoon/Tonight: Radar reflectivity echoes have rapidly diminished
over the past few hours as precipitation in the form of light snow
has dissipated. Outside of a few pockets of flurries or light
drizzle, do not expect any additional precipitation nor accumulation
through this evening. Low stratus has remain locked into place
across the region and do not expect that to change through the
night. Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing, but only into
the middle 20s to lower 30s in part thanks to the cloud cover and
negligible cold air advection in the wake of the system. Could be
patchy black ice as liquid refreezes late tonight on secondary
roadways that remained untreated or infrequently traveled, but
overall impacts should be low. Otherwise, will also monitor
potential for patchy fog, and with the lowest 3kft saturated with a
period of weak ascent, could see perhaps a few patchy areas of
freezing drizzle as ice does not look to be introduced into the
column for flurries. The probability of light freezing drizzle is
fairly low and will not mention in forecast at this time, and any
that does occur is not expected to have an impact.

Friday through Monday Night: A gradual warming trend will begin
tomorrow and continue through Monday. Models are in general
agreement during the period. On Friday, a quick-moving upper system
will move from Texas across the Gulf Coast states, with all notable
weather remaining well to the south of the forecast area. The upper
pattern will deamplify and flatten in its wake, with warming H85
temperatures. The upper pattern over the central CONUS will once
again transition early next week, with a large positively-tilted to
neutrally-tilted upper trough evolving as a series of disturbances
ride southeastward across the region. Dry weather is expected on
Friday into Saturday, with increasing chances for precipitation
Sunday night into Monday as moisture increases and deep ascent
overspreads the area. Precipitation is expected to be in the from of
rain as all the lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm
sector. A cold front is projected to move through the forecast area
on Monday afternoon, ushering in cooler air and bringing an end to
the most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and some
of this may be in the form of light snow in northern Missouri, with
little to no accumulation anticipated at this time. As for
temperatures, readings will climb each day from the 30s on Friday to
the warmest temperatures in the next 7 days on Monday with highs in
the middle to upper 40s.

Extended: Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near
seasonal averages for this time of year. Outside of the remnant
post-frontal precipitation on Tuesday described above, the forecast
is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Much of the
model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement by the end of the
forecast period that features a strong upper disturbance diving into
the central High Plains on Thursday. It is too early to determine
what type, if any, of appreciable weather can be expected from this
system for the Christmas timeframe, but a colder shot of air may be
in the works.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist through at least 16z Friday as
surface high pressure continues to drift over the area and low
stratus helps trap in local moisture from this afternoon`s snow
melt. Patchy fog with isolated spots of dense fog will also continue
through at least mid- to late morning. Some improvement in ceilings
and visibility is possible by noon Friday, but am not confident
enough to lift all sites into the MVFR category at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 190528
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Afternoon/Tonight: Radar reflectivity echoes have rapidly diminished
over the past few hours as precipitation in the form of light snow
has dissipated. Outside of a few pockets of flurries or light
drizzle, do not expect any additional precipitation nor accumulation
through this evening. Low stratus has remain locked into place
across the region and do not expect that to change through the
night. Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing, but only into
the middle 20s to lower 30s in part thanks to the cloud cover and
negligible cold air advection in the wake of the system. Could be
patchy black ice as liquid refreezes late tonight on secondary
roadways that remained untreated or infrequently traveled, but
overall impacts should be low. Otherwise, will also monitor
potential for patchy fog, and with the lowest 3kft saturated with a
period of weak ascent, could see perhaps a few patchy areas of
freezing drizzle as ice does not look to be introduced into the
column for flurries. The probability of light freezing drizzle is
fairly low and will not mention in forecast at this time, and any
that does occur is not expected to have an impact.

Friday through Monday Night: A gradual warming trend will begin
tomorrow and continue through Monday. Models are in general
agreement during the period. On Friday, a quick-moving upper system
will move from Texas across the Gulf Coast states, with all notable
weather remaining well to the south of the forecast area. The upper
pattern will deamplify and flatten in its wake, with warming H85
temperatures. The upper pattern over the central CONUS will once
again transition early next week, with a large positively-tilted to
neutrally-tilted upper trough evolving as a series of disturbances
ride southeastward across the region. Dry weather is expected on
Friday into Saturday, with increasing chances for precipitation
Sunday night into Monday as moisture increases and deep ascent
overspreads the area. Precipitation is expected to be in the from of
rain as all the lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm
sector. A cold front is projected to move through the forecast area
on Monday afternoon, ushering in cooler air and bringing an end to
the most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and some
of this may be in the form of light snow in northern Missouri, with
little to no accumulation anticipated at this time. As for
temperatures, readings will climb each day from the 30s on Friday to
the warmest temperatures in the next 7 days on Monday with highs in
the middle to upper 40s.

Extended: Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near
seasonal averages for this time of year. Outside of the remnant
post-frontal precipitation on Tuesday described above, the forecast
is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Much of the
model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement by the end of the
forecast period that features a strong upper disturbance diving into
the central High Plains on Thursday. It is too early to determine
what type, if any, of appreciable weather can be expected from this
system for the Christmas timeframe, but a colder shot of air may be
in the works.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist through at least 16z Friday as
surface high pressure continues to drift over the area and low
stratus helps trap in local moisture from this afternoon`s snow
melt. Patchy fog with isolated spots of dense fog will also continue
through at least mid- to late morning. Some improvement in ceilings
and visibility is possible by noon Friday, but am not confident
enough to lift all sites into the MVFR category at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 182331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Afternoon/Tonight: Radar reflectivity echoes have rapidly diminished
over the past few hours as precipitation in the form of light snow
has dissipated. Outside of a few pockets of flurries or light
drizzle, do not expect any additional precipitation nor accumulation
through this evening. Low stratus has remain locked into place
across the region and do not expect that to change through the
night. Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing, but only into
the middle 20s to lower 30s in part thanks to the cloud cover and
negligible cold air advection in the wake of the system. Could be
patchy black ice as liquid refreezes late tonight on secondary
roadways that remained untreated or infrequently traveled, but
overall impacts should be low. Otherwise, will also monitor
potential for patchy fog, and with the lowest 3kft saturated with a
period of weak ascent, could see perhaps a few patchy areas of
freezing drizzle as ice does not look to be introduced into the
column for flurries. The probability of light freezing drizzle is
fairly low and will not mention in forecast at this time, and any
that does occur is not expected to have an impact.

Friday through Monday Night: A gradual warming trend will begin
tomorrow and continue through Monday. Models are in general
agreement during the period. On Friday, a quick-moving upper system
will move from Texas across the Gulf Coast states, with all notable
weather remaining well to the south of the forecast area. The upper
pattern will deamplify and flatten in its wake, with warming H85
temperatures. The upper pattern over the central CONUS will once
again transition early next week, with a large positively-tilted to
neutrally-tilted upper trough evolving as a series of disturbances
ride southeastward across the region. Dry weather is expected on
Friday into Saturday, with increasing chances for precipitation
Sunday night into Monday as moisture increases and deep ascent
overspreads the area. Precipitation is expected to be in the from of
rain as all the lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm
sector. A cold front is projected to move through the forecast area
on Monday afternoon, ushering in cooler air and bringing an end to
the most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and some
of this may be in the form of light snow in northern Missouri, with
little to no accumulation anticipated at this time. As for
temperatures, readings will climb each day from the 30s on Friday to
the warmest temperatures in the next 7 days on Monday with highs in
the middle to upper 40s.

Extended: Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near
seasonal averages for this time of year. Outside of the remnant
post-frontal precipitation on Tuesday described above, the forecast
is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Much of the
model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement by the end of the
forecast period that features a strong upper disturbance diving into
the central High Plains on Thursday. It is too early to determine
what type, if any, of appreciable weather can be expected from this
system for the Christmas timeframe, but a colder shot of air may be
in the works.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR conditions are expected through the majority of the forecast
period as stratus continues to sit over the region. Ceilings may not
change significantly overnight, but patchy fog is expected to develop
especially in snow covered areas, potentially reducing visibilities to
around 1-2 miles. Ceilings may gradually lift Friday morning, but
will remain on the lower end of MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 182331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Afternoon/Tonight: Radar reflectivity echoes have rapidly diminished
over the past few hours as precipitation in the form of light snow
has dissipated. Outside of a few pockets of flurries or light
drizzle, do not expect any additional precipitation nor accumulation
through this evening. Low stratus has remain locked into place
across the region and do not expect that to change through the
night. Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing, but only into
the middle 20s to lower 30s in part thanks to the cloud cover and
negligible cold air advection in the wake of the system. Could be
patchy black ice as liquid refreezes late tonight on secondary
roadways that remained untreated or infrequently traveled, but
overall impacts should be low. Otherwise, will also monitor
potential for patchy fog, and with the lowest 3kft saturated with a
period of weak ascent, could see perhaps a few patchy areas of
freezing drizzle as ice does not look to be introduced into the
column for flurries. The probability of light freezing drizzle is
fairly low and will not mention in forecast at this time, and any
that does occur is not expected to have an impact.

Friday through Monday Night: A gradual warming trend will begin
tomorrow and continue through Monday. Models are in general
agreement during the period. On Friday, a quick-moving upper system
will move from Texas across the Gulf Coast states, with all notable
weather remaining well to the south of the forecast area. The upper
pattern will deamplify and flatten in its wake, with warming H85
temperatures. The upper pattern over the central CONUS will once
again transition early next week, with a large positively-tilted to
neutrally-tilted upper trough evolving as a series of disturbances
ride southeastward across the region. Dry weather is expected on
Friday into Saturday, with increasing chances for precipitation
Sunday night into Monday as moisture increases and deep ascent
overspreads the area. Precipitation is expected to be in the from of
rain as all the lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm
sector. A cold front is projected to move through the forecast area
on Monday afternoon, ushering in cooler air and bringing an end to
the most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and some
of this may be in the form of light snow in northern Missouri, with
little to no accumulation anticipated at this time. As for
temperatures, readings will climb each day from the 30s on Friday to
the warmest temperatures in the next 7 days on Monday with highs in
the middle to upper 40s.

Extended: Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near
seasonal averages for this time of year. Outside of the remnant
post-frontal precipitation on Tuesday described above, the forecast
is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Much of the
model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement by the end of the
forecast period that features a strong upper disturbance diving into
the central High Plains on Thursday. It is too early to determine
what type, if any, of appreciable weather can be expected from this
system for the Christmas timeframe, but a colder shot of air may be
in the works.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR conditions are expected through the majority of the forecast
period as stratus continues to sit over the region. Ceilings may not
change significantly overnight, but patchy fog is expected to develop
especially in snow covered areas, potentially reducing visibilities to
around 1-2 miles. Ceilings may gradually lift Friday morning, but
will remain on the lower end of MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 182103
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Afternoon/Tonight: Radar reflectivity echoes have rapidly diminished
over the past few hours as precipitation in the form of light snow
has dissipated. Outside of a few pockets of flurries or light
drizzle, do not expect any additional precipitation nor accumulation
through this evening. Low stratus has remain locked into place
across the region and do not expect that to change through the
night. Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing, but only into
the middle 20s to lower 30s in part thanks to the cloud cover and
negligible cold air advection in the wake of the system. Could be
patchy black ice as liquid refreezes late tonight on secondary
roadways that remained untreated or infrequently traveled, but
overall impacts should be low. Otherwise, will also monitor
potential for patchy fog, and with the lowest 3kft saturated with a
period of weak ascent, could see perhaps a few patchy areas of
freezing drizzle as ice does not look to be introduced into the
column for flurries. The probability of light freezing drizzle is
fairly low and will not mention in forecast at this time, and any
that does occur is not expected to have an impact.

Friday through Monday Night: A gradual warming trend will begin
tomorrow and continue through Monday. Models are in general
agreement during the period. On Friday, a quick-moving upper system
will move from Texas across the Gulf Coast states, with all notable
weather remaining well to the south of the forecast area. The upper
pattern will deamplify and flatten in its wake, with warming H85
temperatures. The upper pattern over the central CONUS will once
again transition early next week, with a large positively-tilted to
neutrally-tilted upper trough evolving as a series of disturbances
ride southeastward across the region. Dry weather is expected on
Friday into Saturday, with increasing chances for precipitation
Sunday night into Monday as moisture increases and deep ascent
overspreads the area. Precipitation is expected to be in the from of
rain as all the lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm
sector. A cold front is projected to move through the forecast area
on Monday afternoon, ushering in cooler air and bringing an end to
the most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and some
of this may be in the form of light snow in northern Missouri, with
little to no accumulation anticipated at this time. As for
temperatures, readings will climb each day from the 30s on Friday to
the warmest temperatures in the next 7 days on Monday with highs in
the middle to upper 40s.

Extended: Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near
seasonal averages for this time of year. Outside of the remnant
post-frontal precipitation on Tuesday described above, the forecast
is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Much of the
model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement by the end of the
forecast period that features a strong upper disturbance diving into
the central High Plains on Thursday. It is too early to determine
what type, if any, of appreciable weather can be expected from this
system for the Christmas timeframe, but a colder shot of air may be
in the works.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to MVFR ceilings/vis should transition to prevailing MVFR
conditions later this afternoon. Observations have gradually risen a
couple hundred feet over the past few hours across the region. The
back edge of light snow, flurries is nearing terminals currently,
and do not expect any additional precipitation impacting conditions.
Challenging forecast tonight with regards to IFR potential and
timing, persistence. Models are quite aggressive on lowering
ceilings, but not as aggressive on bringing down visibility.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 182103
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Afternoon/Tonight: Radar reflectivity echoes have rapidly diminished
over the past few hours as precipitation in the form of light snow
has dissipated. Outside of a few pockets of flurries or light
drizzle, do not expect any additional precipitation nor accumulation
through this evening. Low stratus has remain locked into place
across the region and do not expect that to change through the
night. Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing, but only into
the middle 20s to lower 30s in part thanks to the cloud cover and
negligible cold air advection in the wake of the system. Could be
patchy black ice as liquid refreezes late tonight on secondary
roadways that remained untreated or infrequently traveled, but
overall impacts should be low. Otherwise, will also monitor
potential for patchy fog, and with the lowest 3kft saturated with a
period of weak ascent, could see perhaps a few patchy areas of
freezing drizzle as ice does not look to be introduced into the
column for flurries. The probability of light freezing drizzle is
fairly low and will not mention in forecast at this time, and any
that does occur is not expected to have an impact.

Friday through Monday Night: A gradual warming trend will begin
tomorrow and continue through Monday. Models are in general
agreement during the period. On Friday, a quick-moving upper system
will move from Texas across the Gulf Coast states, with all notable
weather remaining well to the south of the forecast area. The upper
pattern will deamplify and flatten in its wake, with warming H85
temperatures. The upper pattern over the central CONUS will once
again transition early next week, with a large positively-tilted to
neutrally-tilted upper trough evolving as a series of disturbances
ride southeastward across the region. Dry weather is expected on
Friday into Saturday, with increasing chances for precipitation
Sunday night into Monday as moisture increases and deep ascent
overspreads the area. Precipitation is expected to be in the from of
rain as all the lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm
sector. A cold front is projected to move through the forecast area
on Monday afternoon, ushering in cooler air and bringing an end to
the most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and some
of this may be in the form of light snow in northern Missouri, with
little to no accumulation anticipated at this time. As for
temperatures, readings will climb each day from the 30s on Friday to
the warmest temperatures in the next 7 days on Monday with highs in
the middle to upper 40s.

Extended: Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near
seasonal averages for this time of year. Outside of the remnant
post-frontal precipitation on Tuesday described above, the forecast
is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Much of the
model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement by the end of the
forecast period that features a strong upper disturbance diving into
the central High Plains on Thursday. It is too early to determine
what type, if any, of appreciable weather can be expected from this
system for the Christmas timeframe, but a colder shot of air may be
in the works.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to MVFR ceilings/vis should transition to prevailing MVFR
conditions later this afternoon. Observations have gradually risen a
couple hundred feet over the past few hours across the region. The
back edge of light snow, flurries is nearing terminals currently,
and do not expect any additional precipitation impacting conditions.
Challenging forecast tonight with regards to IFR potential and
timing, persistence. Models are quite aggressive on lowering
ceilings, but not as aggressive on bringing down visibility.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to MVFR ceilings/vis should transition to prevailing MVFR
conditions later this afternoon. Observations have gradually risen a
couple hundred feet over the past few hours across the region. The
back edge of light snow, flurries is nearing terminals currently,
and do not expect any additional precipitation impacting conditions.
Challenging forecast tonight with regards to IFR potential and
timing, persistence. Models are quite aggressive on lowering
ceilings, but not as aggressive on bringing down visibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to MVFR ceilings/vis should transition to prevailing MVFR
conditions later this afternoon. Observations have gradually risen a
couple hundred feet over the past few hours across the region. The
back edge of light snow, flurries is nearing terminals currently,
and do not expect any additional precipitation impacting conditions.
Challenging forecast tonight with regards to IFR potential and
timing, persistence. Models are quite aggressive on lowering
ceilings, but not as aggressive on bringing down visibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Light snow moving through the area early this morning, and will move
completely out by the mid morning hours. There could be a period of
very light snow and perhaps some freezing drizzle through the noon
time period, but the chance for freezing drizzle is pretty low. There
could be a period of CIG/VIS improvement this afternoon, but
forecast soundings and guidance suggests IFR/LIFR conditions
overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Light snow moving through the area early this morning, and will move
completely out by the mid morning hours. There could be a period of
very light snow and perhaps some freezing drizzle through the noon
time period, but the chance for freezing drizzle is pretty low. There
could be a period of CIG/VIS improvement this afternoon, but
forecast soundings and guidance suggests IFR/LIFR conditions
overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Light snow moving through the area early this morning, and will move
completely out by the mid morning hours. There could be a period of
very light snow and perhaps some freezing drizzle through the noon
time period, but the chance for freezing drizzle is pretty low. There
could be a period of CIG/VIS improvement this afternoon, but
forecast soundings and guidance suggests IFR/LIFR conditions
overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Snow is currently impacting, or will impact the terminals in the next
hour. Main edge of snow currently along a line from KFNB
southeastward to KJEF and is slowly spreading northeast. Main issue for the
prevailing TAF period is periods of reduced visibility as heavier
bands move across the terminals. Visibility has been falling to LIFR
with these bands. Snow will begin to wind down between a 15-17Z
period. As main area of lift moves out of the region, snow will come
to an end but there is a slight chance for some patchy freezing
drizzle to develop given saturated lower levels.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Snow is currently impacting, or will impact the terminals in the next
hour. Main edge of snow currently along a line from KFNB
southeastward to KJEF and is slowly spreading northeast. Main issue for the
prevailing TAF period is periods of reduced visibility as heavier
bands move across the terminals. Visibility has been falling to LIFR
with these bands. Snow will begin to wind down between a 15-17Z
period. As main area of lift moves out of the region, snow will come
to an end but there is a slight chance for some patchy freezing
drizzle to develop given saturated lower levels.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 180552
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Snow is currently impacting, or will impact the terminals in the next
hour. Main edge of snow currently along a line from KFNB
southeastward to KJEF and is slowly spreading northeast. Main issue for the
prevailing TAF period is periods of reduced visibility as heavier
bands move across the terminals. Visibility has been falling to LIFR
with these bands. Snow will begin to wind down between a 15-17Z
period. As main area of lift moves out of the region, snow will come
to an end but there is a slight chance for some patchy freezing
drizzle to develop given saturated lower levels.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-
     020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 180552
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Snow is currently impacting, or will impact the terminals in the next
hour. Main edge of snow currently along a line from KFNB
southeastward to KJEF and is slowly spreading northeast. Main issue for the
prevailing TAF period is periods of reduced visibility as heavier
bands move across the terminals. Visibility has been falling to LIFR
with these bands. Snow will begin to wind down between a 15-17Z
period. As main area of lift moves out of the region, snow will come
to an end but there is a slight chance for some patchy freezing
drizzle to develop given saturated lower levels.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-
     020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 172347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern for the prevailing TAF period is snow working into the
region this evening and overnight. Currently, the line of
precipitation extends from KEMP southeastward to KUNO and will
continue to spread northeast towards Interstate 70 by 06Z. Ceilings
will gradually fall to MVFR and then IFR as this precip moves northward.
Light to moderate snow rates will decrease visibility overnight and
may see a period of visibility falling down to IFR and potentially
LIFR. Snow will gradually end late tomorrow morning with low MVFR
ceilings hanging around through the afternoon. There is the potential
for patchy freezing drizzle after the snow ends, but confidence is
low attm and any accumulation is expected to be light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 172347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern for the prevailing TAF period is snow working into the
region this evening and overnight. Currently, the line of
precipitation extends from KEMP southeastward to KUNO and will
continue to spread northeast towards Interstate 70 by 06Z. Ceilings
will gradually fall to MVFR and then IFR as this precip moves northward.
Light to moderate snow rates will decrease visibility overnight and
may see a period of visibility falling down to IFR and potentially
LIFR. Snow will gradually end late tomorrow morning with low MVFR
ceilings hanging around through the afternoon. There is the potential
for patchy freezing drizzle after the snow ends, but confidence is
low attm and any accumulation is expected to be light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 172111
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel









000
FXUS63 KEAX 172111
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 172111
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel









000
FXUS63 KEAX 171831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 171831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 171138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR stratus has generally broken up across the area, but a few
pockets remain, especially across southern Nebraska and eastern
Kansas. Observations have shown some general improvement at the
terminals, but with the presence of low clouds in the area will keep
a TEMPO going for MVFR CIGS through 16z. By mid day low level clouds
should be sparse, with mid level clouds remaining in place. VFR
conditions should prevail through the evening and early overnight
hours. By 06z expect light snow to move into the terminals, lasting
through at least 12z Thursday morning. Heavy snow is not anticipated,
but VIS should deteriorate to IFR levels through the overnight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 171138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR stratus has generally broken up across the area, but a few
pockets remain, especially across southern Nebraska and eastern
Kansas. Observations have shown some general improvement at the
terminals, but with the presence of low clouds in the area will keep
a TEMPO going for MVFR CIGS through 16z. By mid day low level clouds
should be sparse, with mid level clouds remaining in place. VFR
conditions should prevail through the evening and early overnight
hours. By 06z expect light snow to move into the terminals, lasting
through at least 12z Thursday morning. Heavy snow is not anticipated,
but VIS should deteriorate to IFR levels through the overnight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 171035
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A narrow band of MVFR cigs continues to make for a tricky TAF period.
This band has slowly sagged southward this evening with erosion occurring
on the northern edge. Models are having a hard time with this shallow
layer and it is difficult to determine if it will completely erode or
just continue to push southward. Expect terminals to scatter out by
8Z with IXD being the last to scatter out closer to 10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are showing a brief window between 14-17Z where a few MVFR
cigs may redevelop. Given model uncertainty, have decided to leave it
out of the current TAF. A 5-7 Kft deck will build in by tomorrow
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough progged to move across the
region tomorrow night. Light winds will gradually shift around to the
east by tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 171035
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A narrow band of MVFR cigs continues to make for a tricky TAF period.
This band has slowly sagged southward this evening with erosion occurring
on the northern edge. Models are having a hard time with this shallow
layer and it is difficult to determine if it will completely erode or
just continue to push southward. Expect terminals to scatter out by
8Z with IXD being the last to scatter out closer to 10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are showing a brief window between 14-17Z where a few MVFR
cigs may redevelop. Given model uncertainty, have decided to leave it
out of the current TAF. A 5-7 Kft deck will build in by tomorrow
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough progged to move across the
region tomorrow night. Light winds will gradually shift around to the
east by tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 170542
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1142 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Low level ridge will drift across the area tonight which will allow
clouds to gradually scatter out. This combined with light winds will
allow temperatures to drop into the 20s overnight, possibly some
teens across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Partly to
mostly sunny skies will continue into Wednesday with temperatures
rising into the middle to upper 30s.

Light precipitation is still expected to overspread the area
Wednesday night into early Thursday when a deamplifying shortwave
will track across the Plains. Thermal profiles generally look
supportive of all snow with this system, although forecast soundings
are awfully close to the 0C isotherm in the 5-10Kft layer, so it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a bit of sleet mixing in especially
south of I-70. Most models are producing a swath of 0.2" to 0.4"
across areas near and south of US-36 through early Thursday morning,
which would translate to a broad 2" to 4" across these areas given
anticipated snow-to-liquid ratios around 11:1. However, forcing with
this system doesn`t look too impressive and it`s questionable whether
these QPF amounts can be realized. Isentropic ascent ahead of this
wave will be fairly weak and there`s no real signal for any notable
mesoscale ascent. There will be a brief period of modest upper-level
divergence within a coupled upper jet and perhaps some PVA with the
main upper wave, but these sources of broad synoptic-scale ascent
alone wouldn`t normally produce 3" or 4" of snow especially in just a
4- to 6-hour period (would mean snow rates approaching 1" per hour,
and this usually requires some source of mesoscale ascent). Am
therefore going with only about half of what these models are
producing, generally 1" to 2" across all but far north central and
northeast Missouri. While not overly impressive amounts, most of this
will fall right before Thursday morning`s commute so there could
still be some noteworthy impacts from this system. Wouldn`t be
surprising to see some amounts a bit higher than this especially over
eastern KS into west central MO where a few models are hinting at
weak and progressive frontogenetical ascent around 06Z to 09Z.

Precipitation should decrease fairly quickly through the morning
hours Thursday as the primary upper wave weakens. This will result in
a loss of upper-level moisture which could favor a bit of drizzle or
freezing drizzle into the early afternoon. Lift by this time doesn`t
look impressive particularly in the lower levels where saturation
will exist, so any drizzle should be light if anything at all and
impacts to travel minimal. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
across areas south of US 36 by mid afternoon.

Models continue to trend south with the next system which will track
across the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night. This should keep
almost all of the precipitation to the south of the forecast area.
Southerly winds behind this system will bring a modest warming trend
heading into early next week with highs reaching the 40s by Sunday
and Monday. Next chance for precip will arrive with a weak front
Monday and Monday night, most of which looks to be in the form of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A narrow band of MVFR cigs continues to make for a tricky TAF period.
This band has slowly sagged southward this evening with erosion occurring
on the northern edge. Models are having a hard time with this shallow
layer and it is difficult to determine if it will completely erode or
just continue to push southward. Expect terminals to scatter out by
8Z with IXD being the last to scatter out closer to 10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are showing a brief window between 14-17Z where a few MVFR
cigs may redevelop. Given model uncertainty, have decided to leave it
out of the current TAF. A 5-7 Kft deck will build in by tomorrow
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough progged to move across the
region tomorrow night. Light winds will gradually shift around to the
east by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 170542
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1142 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Low level ridge will drift across the area tonight which will allow
clouds to gradually scatter out. This combined with light winds will
allow temperatures to drop into the 20s overnight, possibly some
teens across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Partly to
mostly sunny skies will continue into Wednesday with temperatures
rising into the middle to upper 30s.

Light precipitation is still expected to overspread the area
Wednesday night into early Thursday when a deamplifying shortwave
will track across the Plains. Thermal profiles generally look
supportive of all snow with this system, although forecast soundings
are awfully close to the 0C isotherm in the 5-10Kft layer, so it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a bit of sleet mixing in especially
south of I-70. Most models are producing a swath of 0.2" to 0.4"
across areas near and south of US-36 through early Thursday morning,
which would translate to a broad 2" to 4" across these areas given
anticipated snow-to-liquid ratios around 11:1. However, forcing with
this system doesn`t look too impressive and it`s questionable whether
these QPF amounts can be realized. Isentropic ascent ahead of this
wave will be fairly weak and there`s no real signal for any notable
mesoscale ascent. There will be a brief period of modest upper-level
divergence within a coupled upper jet and perhaps some PVA with the
main upper wave, but these sources of broad synoptic-scale ascent
alone wouldn`t normally produce 3" or 4" of snow especially in just a
4- to 6-hour period (would mean snow rates approaching 1" per hour,
and this usually requires some source of mesoscale ascent). Am
therefore going with only about half of what these models are
producing, generally 1" to 2" across all but far north central and
northeast Missouri. While not overly impressive amounts, most of this
will fall right before Thursday morning`s commute so there could
still be some noteworthy impacts from this system. Wouldn`t be
surprising to see some amounts a bit higher than this especially over
eastern KS into west central MO where a few models are hinting at
weak and progressive frontogenetical ascent around 06Z to 09Z.

Precipitation should decrease fairly quickly through the morning
hours Thursday as the primary upper wave weakens. This will result in
a loss of upper-level moisture which could favor a bit of drizzle or
freezing drizzle into the early afternoon. Lift by this time doesn`t
look impressive particularly in the lower levels where saturation
will exist, so any drizzle should be light if anything at all and
impacts to travel minimal. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
across areas south of US 36 by mid afternoon.

Models continue to trend south with the next system which will track
across the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night. This should keep
almost all of the precipitation to the south of the forecast area.
Southerly winds behind this system will bring a modest warming trend
heading into early next week with highs reaching the 40s by Sunday
and Monday. Next chance for precip will arrive with a weak front
Monday and Monday night, most of which looks to be in the form of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A narrow band of MVFR cigs continues to make for a tricky TAF period.
This band has slowly sagged southward this evening with erosion occurring
on the northern edge. Models are having a hard time with this shallow
layer and it is difficult to determine if it will completely erode or
just continue to push southward. Expect terminals to scatter out by
8Z with IXD being the last to scatter out closer to 10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are showing a brief window between 14-17Z where a few MVFR
cigs may redevelop. Given model uncertainty, have decided to leave it
out of the current TAF. A 5-7 Kft deck will build in by tomorrow
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough progged to move across the
region tomorrow night. Light winds will gradually shift around to the
east by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM








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