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000
FXUS63 KEAX 182316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A beautiful stretch of days has kicked off across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri as shortwave ridging is overspreading the forecast
area. At the surface the ridge over the western Great Lakes
continues to move east, allowing a surface trough to move across the
High Plains, into the Central Plains. The result is a tightening
surface pressure gradient across Kansas. For today the tighter
pressure gradient will remain off to the west, keeping our area a
little lighter with the winds. That will generally change as we move
into Saturday. The tighter surface pressure gradient will move
across this forecast area, allowing the southerly winds to respond
by increasing through the early morning hours on Saturday. Expect
southerly winds to increase to around 15 mph by mid day Saturday,
with gusts up to 25 mph. In response to the warm air advection and
mid level ridging expect a very warm day on Saturday with highs
approaching 80 degrees across the entire area.

The focus then shifts to Sunday, and outdoor Easter festivities.
Models continue to show a solution that keeps the entire forecast
area dry through the morning. Good moisture advection through the
day on Sunday should prime the atmosphere adequately to kick of
showers and thunderstorms as the mid level trough approaches the
area from the west. At this time it still appears that the morning
to afternoon hours on Easter Sunday will remain dry, with showers
and thunderstorms overspreading the area Sunday evening through the
overnight hours. Marginal instability, mainly in conjunction with
the cooler temperatures aloft with the trough will yield values of
around 1000 J/kg of SB Cape for Sunday evening. With virtually no
deep layer shear it is highly unlikely that severe weather will
occur with any of these storms. Widespread light to moderate rain,
with embedded pockets of heavy rain will move through Sunday night
through Monday morning, bringing about .25 to .50 inch of rain
area-wide with a some locations perhaps receiving more. Most of the
rain should be clear of the area by mid day on Monday. Light
northwest surface winds and passing clouds could help keep
temperatures a bit lower for Monday, but still expect highs to
generally creep back into the lower to mid 70s by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at  336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Upper pattern amplifies in the later portion of the forecast period
with chances for thunderstorm activity increasing during the middle
to end part of the work week.  Progressive ridge builds into the
central US for the early part of the week in response to departing
upper low over the Great Lakes and deepening trough moving into the
northwest US.

Surface high pressure should bring nice spring weather to the region
on Tuesday with temperatures at or slightly above normal.  Return
flow sets up in wake of departing high pressure and in advance of
surface low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.  As a result
there should be a corresponding increase in deeper low level
moisture and strengthening low-level warm advection through the day
on Wednesday with temperatures warming well into the 70s.
Strengthening nocturnal LLJ and deepening upper trough over the
northern Plains should provide for decent chance for thunderstorms
across the region especially Wednesday night into Thursday.  ECMWF a
bit faster with the progression of these features than GFS, however
both indicate the threat for precipitation dwindling during the day
on Friday as a surface cold front pushes through the forecast area
ushering in cooler and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions with increasing and gusty southerly winds by mid
Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 182037
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A beautiful stretch of days has kicked off across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri as shortwave ridging is overspreading the forecast
area. At the surface the ridge over the western Great Lakes
continues to move east, allowing a surface trough to move across the
High Plains, into the Central Plains. The result is a tightening
surface pressure gradient across Kansas. For today the tighter
pressure gradient will remain off to the west, keeping our area a
little lighter with the winds. That will generally change as we move
into Saturday. The tighter surface pressure gradient will move
across this forecast area, allowing the southerly winds to respond
by increasing through the early morning hours on Saturday. Expect
southerly winds to increase to around 15 mph by mid day Saturday,
with gusts up to 25 mph. In response to the warm air advection and
mid level ridging expect a very warm day on Saturday with highs
approaching 80 degrees across the entire area.

The focus then shifts to Sunday, and outdoor Easter festivities.
Models continue to show a solution that keeps the entire forecast
area dry through the morning. Good moisture advection through the
day on Sunday should prime the atmosphere adequately to kick of
showers and thunderstorms as the mid level trough approaches the
area from the west. At this time it still appears that the morning
to afternoon hours on Easter Sunday will remain dry, with showers
and thunderstorms overspreading the area Sunday evening through the
overnight hours. Marginal instability, mainly in conjunction with
the cooler temperatures aloft with the trough will yield values of
around 1000 J/kg of SB Cape for Sunday evening. With virtually no
deep layer shear it is highly unlikely that severe weather will
occur with any of these storms. Widespread light to moderate rain,
with embedded pockets of heavy rain will move through Sunday night
through Monday morning, bringing about .25 to .50 inch of rain
area-wide with a some locations perhaps receiving more. Most of the
rain should be clear of the area by mid day on Monday. Light
northwest surface winds and passing clouds could help keep
temperatures a bit lower for Monday, but still expect highs to
generally creep back into the lower to mid 70s by Monday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at  336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Upper pattern amplifies in the later portion of the forecast period
with chances for thunderstorm activity increasing during the middle
to end part of the work week.  Progressive ridge builds into the
central US for the early part of the week in response to departing
upper low over the Great Lakes and deepening trough moving into the
northwest US.

Surface high pressure should bring nice spring weather to the region
on Tuesday with temperatures at or slightly above normal.  Return
flow sets up in wake of departing high pressure and in advance of
surface low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.  As a result
there should be a corresponding increase in deeper low level
moisture and strengthening low-level warm advection through the day
on Wednesday with temperatures warming well into the 70s.
Strengthening nocturnal LLJ and deepening upper trough over the
northern Plains should provide for decent chance for thunderstorms
across the region especially Wednesday night into Thursday.  ECMWF a
bit faster with the progression of these features than GFS, however
both indicate the threat for precipitation dwindling during the day
on Friday as a surface cold front pushes through the forecast area
ushering in cooler and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of the
forecast period. Light southeast winds will persist until mid morning
on Saturday when they`ll likely pick up to around 15 to 20 kts, with
gusts up to 25 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181723
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Friday - Sunday:

We`ll start the weekend with warm and dry weather as short-wave
ridging moves across the center of the country. Surface and low-level
flow will be weak today as high pressure slowly moves east. With
anticipated near full insolation, the area should be able to climb to
or just above normal temperatures with highs int he upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Winds will be stronger on Saturday and from the
south. With the upper ridge moving over the area, thickness values
increase and this should result in high temperatures that are well
above normal. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across
the forecast area.

For Sunday, another very mild day is expected but the possibility of
more cloud cover and precipitation later in the day makes the
forecast a bit more complicated. Thicknesses may be slightly lower
but mid-level temperatures may be several degrees warmer as warm
advection persists ahead of a weak upper system. So thinking
temperatures should again top out in the mid to upper 70s by the
time any precipitation moves.

With regards to precipitation chances for Sunday, the main trend has
been to slow things down a bit and keep the better chances to the
west. The system coming from the southwest is rather weak and
doesn`t lead to a strong low-level jet. What little LLJ there is, is
more focused into Nebraska and may just clip far northwestern
Missouri during the overnight hours. That LLJ dissipates during the
day and with no real upper jet pushing the southern wave east, its
progression is slow and thus any forcing for ascent associated with
it will be delayed as well. So during the day time, have kept the
highest PoPs to the western forecast area and removed them for our
eastern tier or two of counties.

Better precipitation chances will come during the overnight as the
upper trough moves overhead. But again, this entire system looks
rather weak with little jet energy associated with it. So the best
chances will closely tied to the weak surface/low-level boundary
moving into/through the area.

Monday - Friday:

This period of time looks to become more active, especially towards
the mid to late week time frame. A deep and nearly cutoff low will
develop over the western CONUS with persistent southerly flow
bringing increased moisture into the region. Through the middle of
the week this should mainly set up warm advection, mostly nocturnal
convection as the LLJ really intensifies over the Plains. However,
by Thursday into Friday, that trough begins to eject across the
Plains with widespread convection becoming more likely. But, there
are significant timing and structure issues between the GEFS, GFS
and ECMWF. The ECMWF is the farthest east and also indicates a
negative tilt and thus more dynamic system. The GFS is about a day
behind and more neutral to positively tilted. The GEFS mean is
somewhere in between from Thursday into Friday but eventually shows
better agreement to the GFS by the very end of the week. Given the
uncertainties, confidence is not especially high at this point time
for any particular solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of the
forecast period. Light southeast winds will persist until mid morning
on Saturday when they`ll likely pick up to around 15 to 20 kts, with
gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Friday - Sunday:

We`ll start the weekend with warm and dry weather as short-wave
ridging moves across the center of the country. Surface and low-level
flow will be weak today as high pressure slowly moves east. With
anticipated near full insolation, the area should be able to climb to
or just above normal temperatures with highs int he upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Winds will be stronger on Saturday and from the
south. With the upper ridge moving over the area, thickness values
increase and this should result in high temperatures that are well
above normal. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across
the forecast area.

For Sunday, another very mild day is expected but the possibility of
more cloud cover and precipitation later in the day makes the
forecast a bit more complicated. Thicknesses may be slightly lower
but mid-level temperatures may be several degrees warmer as warm
advection persists ahead of a weak upper system. So thinking
temperatures should again top out in the mid to upper 70s by the
time any precipitation moves.

With regards to precipitation chances for Sunday, the main trend has
been to slow things down a bit and keep the better chances to the
west. The system coming from the southwest is rather weak and
doesn`t lead to a strong low-level jet. What little LLJ there is, is
more focused into Nebraska and may just clip far northwestern
Missouri during the overnight hours. That LLJ dissipates during the
day and with no real upper jet pushing the southern wave east, its
progression is slow and thus any forcing for ascent associated with
it will be delayed as well. So during the day time, have kept the
highest PoPs to the western forecast area and removed them for our
eastern tier or two of counties.

Better precipitation chances will come during the overnight as the
upper trough moves overhead. But again, this entire system looks
rather weak with little jet energy associated with it. So the best
chances will closely tied to the weak surface/low-level boundary
moving into/through the area.

Monday - Friday:

This period of time looks to become more active, especially towards
the mid to late week time frame. A deep and nearly cutoff low will
develop over the western CONUS with persistent southerly flow
bringing increased moisture into the region. Through the middle of
the week this should mainly set up warm advection, mostly nocturnal
convection as the LLJ really intensifies over the Plains. However,
by Thursday into Friday, that trough begins to eject across the
Plains with widespread convection becoming more likely. But, there
are significant timing and structure issues between the GEFS, GFS
and ECMWF. The ECMWF is the farthest east and also indicates a
negative tilt and thus more dynamic system. The GFS is about a day
behind and more neutral to positively tilted. The GEFS mean is
somewhere in between from Thursday into Friday but eventually shows
better agreement to the GFS by the very end of the week. Given the
uncertainties, confidence is not especially high at this point time
for any particular solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light winds associated with an area of high pressure centered over
the region as well as what is likely smoke from Flint Hills burning
has led to light fog/ haze over western Missouri and eastern Kansas.
Isolated dense fog is possible in northern to northeastern Missouri,
mainly sheltered and cold air drainage areas. Conditions at the
terminals are still expected to be VFR. STJ my briefly dip into MVFR
this morning but this should soon dissipate within several hours of
sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 180831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Friday - Sunday:

We`ll start the weekend with warm and dry weather as short-wave
ridging moves across the center of the country. Surface and low-level
flow will be weak today as high pressure slowly moves east. With
anticipated near full insolation, the area should be able to climb to
or just above normal temperatures with highs int he upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Winds will be stronger on Saturday and from the
south. With the upper ridge moving over the area, thickness values
increase and this should result in high temperatures that are well
above normal. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across
the forecast area.

For Sunday, another very mild day is expected but the possibility of
more cloud cover and precipitation later in the day makes the
forecast a bit more complicated. Thicknesses may be slightly lower
but mid-level temperatures may be several degrees warmer as warm
advection persists ahead of a weak upper system. So thinking
temperatures should again top out in the mid to upper 70s by the
time any precipitation moves.

With regards to precipitation chances for Sunday, the main trend has
been to slow things down a bit and keep the better chances to the
west. The system coming from the southwest is rather weak and
doesn`t lead to a strong low-level jet. What little LLJ there is, is
more focused into Nebraska and may just clip far northwestern
Missouri during the overnight hours. That LLJ dissipates during the
day and with no real upper jet pushing the southern wave east, its
progression is slow and thus any forcing for ascent associated with
it will be delayed as well. So during the day time, have kept the
highest PoPs to the western forecast area and removed them for our
eastern tier or two of counties.

Better precipitation chances will come during the overnight as the
upper trough moves overhead. But again, this entire system looks
rather weak with little jet energy associated with it. So the best
chances will closely tied to the weak surface/low-level boundary
moving into/through the area.

Monday - Friday:

This period of time looks to become more active, especially towards
the mid to late week time frame. A deep and nearly cutoff low will
develop over the western CONUS with persistent southerly flow
bringing increased moisture into the region. Through the middle of
the week this should mainly set up warm advection, mostly nocturnal
convection as the LLJ really intensifies over the Plains. However,
by Thursday into Friday, that trough begins to eject across the
Plains with widespread convection becoming more likely. But, there
are significant timing and structure issues between the GEFS, GFS
and ECMWF. The ECMWF is the farthest east and also indicates a
negative tilt and thus more dynamic system. The GFS is about a day
behind and more neutral to positively tilted. The GEFS mean is
somewhere in between from Thursday into Friday but eventually shows
better agreement to the GFS by the very end of the week. Given the
uncertainties, confidence is not especially high at this point time
for any particular solution.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. High pressure over
the area will keep winds light tonight. That high will shift to the
east late Friday morning with winds becoming light from the southeast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB









000
FXUS63 KEAX 180508
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1208 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

It has a very interesting afternoon weather wise, featuring a 200
mile long band of rain that has an average width of 5 miles. This
mesoscale banded feature has been handled quite well by the models
over the past few days, and setup exactly where predicted. The
elongated area of mid level baroclinity, tied a shortwave impulse
over western Oklahoma, will gradually shift southeast through early
this evening. Light rain will continue over Linn and Bates counties
for the next several hours, with a few sprinkles across surrounding
counties (Cass, Miami, Henry), and come to an end by 00Z.

Elsewhere, high clouds streaming northeast from the aforementioned
trough will steadily clear from northwest to southeast, leaving clear
skies and light winds overnight. Readings over the nrn half of the
CWA should bottom out just above freezing at 2m, with areas of frost
likely in sheltered areas.

For Friday, upper ridging will amplify just west of the area, with a
dry light easterly flow at the surface. Despite the chilly start, a
strong April sun angle will boost afternoon temperatures into the
middle and upper 60s. Low level southerlies will return on Saturday
with highs into the middle 70s.

The upper ridge will pass east of the area Saturday night, and flow
trajectories suggest that an elevated mixed layer will advect
northeast from the southern Plains. The GFS, discounted yesterday for
its early and very wet forecast for Sunday, has now come around to
the preferred European solution keeping precipitation mainly west of
the area during the day. A slow moving southern stream trough will
meander into the area Sunday night, before being swept eastward by a
much stronger northern stream wave on Monday. Large scale ascent and
modest instability should be sufficient for scattered to perhaps
numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday morning
(perhaps beginning later Monday afternoon ern KS/NW MO), but the
degree of instability forecast and weak winds suggest little chance
of strong to severe storms once the activity progresses into the
eastern Plains.

In the wake of this system, a touch cooler, but certainly drier, air
will arrive along the southern periphery of Canadian high pressure
that will graze the area Monday and Tuesday. Beyond this time frame,
the focus will shift toward a powerful Spring western CONUS trough
that typically suggests that the beginning of severe weather season
is upon us. In the meantime, the Day 7 forecast for Wednesday shows
unseasonably warm and increasingly humid air surging north into the
region with a high degree of confidence. Would not be surprised to
see 80 degree temperatures in many areas as an EML/thermal ridge overspreads
the area behind some possible morning elevated convection north of
the advancing warm front.

As it is the season of change, this will be my last forecast serving
the great folks of central/northern Missouri and eastern Kansas...as
I head back east toward Appalachia. It has been a distinct pleasure
serving you for the past 9 years. I hope these discussions have
served both an educational and scientific purpose in providing
you...the media, emergency managers, spotters, first responders and
the public...the necessary information to be informed and most of
all, prepared. Best wishes to all of you.

Bookbinder

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. High pressure over
the area will keep winds light tonight. That high will shift to the
east late Friday morning with winds becoming light from the southeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 172309
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

It has a very interesting afternoon weather wise, featuring a 200
mile long band of rain that has an average width of 5 miles. This
mesoscale banded feature has been handled quite well by the models
over the past few days, and setup exactly where predicted. The
elongated area of mid level baroclinity, tied a shortwave impulse
over western Oklahoma, will gradually shift southeast through early
this evening. Light rain will continue over Linn and Bates counties
for the next several hours, with a few sprinkles across surrounding
counties (Cass, Miami, Henry), and come to an end by 00Z.

Elsewhere, high clouds streaming northeast from the aforementioned
trough will steadily clear from northwest to southeast, leaving clear
skies and light winds overnight. Readings over the nrn half of the
CWA should bottom out just above freezing at 2m, with areas of frost
likely in sheltered areas.

For Friday, upper ridging will amplify just west of the area, with a
dry light easterly flow at the surface. Despite the chilly start, a
strong April sun angle will boost afternoon temperatures into the
middle and upper 60s. Low level southerlies will return on Saturday
with highs into the middle 70s.

The upper ridge will pass east of the area Saturday night, and flow
trajectories suggest that an elevated mixed layer will advect
northeast from the southern Plains. The GFS, discounted yesterday for
its early and very wet forecast for Sunday, has now come around to
the preferred European solution keeping precipitation mainly west of
the area during the day. A slow moving southern stream trough will
meander into the area Sunday night, before being swept eastward by a
much stronger northern stream wave on Monday. Large scale ascent and
modest instability should be sufficient for scattered to perhaps
numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday morning
(perhaps beginning later Monday afternoon ern KS/NW MO), but the
degree of instability forecast and weak winds suggest little chance
of strong to severe storms once the activity progresses into the
eastern Plains.

In the wake of this system, a touch cooler, but certainly drier, air
will arrive along the southern periphery of Canadian high pressure
that will graze the area Monday and Tuesday. Beyond this time frame,
the focus will shift toward a powerful Spring western CONUS trough
that typically suggests that the beginning of severe weather season
is upon us. In the meantime, the Day 7 forecast for Wednesday shows
unseasonably warm and increasingly humid air surging north into the
region with a high degree of confidence. Would not be surprised to
see 80 degree temperatures in many areas as an EML/thermal ridge overspreads
the area behind some possible morning elevated convection north of
the advancing warm front.

As it is the season of change, this will be my last forecast serving
the great folks of central/northern Missouri and eastern Kansas...as
I head back east toward Appalachia. It has been a distinct pleasure
serving you for the past 9 years. I hope these discussions have
served both an educational and scientific purpose in providing
you...the media, emergency managers, spotters, first responders and
the public...the necessary information to be informed and most of
all, prepared. Best wishes to all of you.

Bookbinder

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR conditions and light winds for this forecast period. Back edge
of the high level cloudiness peeling east and out of eastern KS which
will leave clear skies and nearly no wind overnight. Area of light
rain moving into central MO will continue shifting east this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 172037
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

It has a very interesting afternoon weather wise, featuring a 200
mile long band of rain that has an average width of 5 miles. This
mesoscale banded feature has been handled quite well by the models
over the past few days, and setup exactly where predicted. The
elongated area of mid level baroclinity, tied a shortwave impulse
over western Oklahoma, will gradually shift southeast through early
this evening. Light rain will continue over Linn and Bates counties
for the next several hours, with a few sprinkles across surrounding
counties (Cass, Miami, Henry), and come to an end by 00Z.

Elsewhere, high clouds streaming northeast from the aforementioned
trough will steadily clear from northwest to southeast, leaving clear
skies and light winds overnight. Readings over the nrn half of the
CWA should bottom out just above freezing at 2m, with areas of frost
likely in sheltered areas.

For Friday, upper ridging will amplify just west of the area, with a
dry light easterly flow at the surface. Despite the chilly start, a
strong April sun angle will boost afternoon temperatures into the
middle and upper 60s. Low level southerlies will return on Saturday
with highs into the middle 70s.

The upper ridge will pass east of the area Saturday night, and flow
trajectories suggest that an elevated mixed layer will advect
northeast from the southern Plains. The GFS, discounted yesterday for
its early and very wet forecast for Sunday, has now come around to
the preferred European solution keeping precipitation mainly west of
the area during the day. A slow moving southern stream trough will
meander into the area Sunday night, before being swept eastward by a
much stronger northern stream wave on Monday. Large scale ascent and
modest instability should be sufficient for scattered to perhaps
numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday morning
(perhaps beginning later Monday afternoon ern KS/NW MO), but the
degree of instability forecast and weak winds suggest little chance
of strong to severe storms once the activity progresses into the
eastern Plains.

In the wake of this system, a touch cooler, but certainly drier, air
will arrive along the southern periphery of Canadian high pressure
that will graze the area Monday and Tuesday. Beyond this time frame,
the focus will shift toward a powerful Spring western CONUS trough
that typically suggests that the beginning of severe weather season
is upon us. In the meantime, the Day 7 forecast for Wednesday shows
unseasonably warm and increasingly humid air surging north into the
region with a high degree of confidence. Would not be surprised to
see 80 degree temperatures in many areas as an EML/thermal ridge overspreads
the area behind some possible morning elevated convection north of
the advancing warm front.

As it is the season of change, this will be my last forecast serving
the great folks of central/northern Missouri and eastern Kansas...as
I head back east toward Appalachia. It has been a distinct pleasure
serving you for the past 9 years. I hope these discussions have
served both an educational and scientific purpose in providing
you...the media, emergency managers, spotters, first responders and
the public...the necessary information to be informed and most of
all, prepared. Best wishes to all of you.

Bookbinder

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Broken strato-cumulus with bases at or just above 2 kft will begin to
scatter out across the KC terminals within the next hour. This will
leave broken mid cloud ceilings around 15 kft through much of the
afternoon.

Northerly winds will become light and variable by late afternoon,
and will remain nearly calm overnight into early Friday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...Bookbinder








000
FXUS63 KEAX 171739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Main concerns for today will be temperatures in the wake of a cold
frontal passage and rain chances as a shortwave trough pushes east
into the forecast area. Temperatures will be dependent on the amount
of cloud cover and any precipitation-associated cooling that occurs
this afternoon, especially as northerly winds and thus any cold air
advection will begin to wane during the early to mid afternoon.

Low- and midlevel dry air is fairly homogeneous across the CWA this
morning, and will be difficult to overcome for measurable precip to
occur this afternoon. Pacific moisture currently associated with the
approaching shortwave trough will mostly filter southeast with the
primary 700 mb low this afternoon, but most models are showing a
weak secondary shortwave trough ejecting northeast into the southern
half of the CWA and carrying with it a narrow finger of moisture in
the 700-800 mb layer. General model consensus including high-res
guidance is to keep most precipitation along and south of a line
from the southern KC metro to Macon, and even in these areas, total
precipitation should only be a few hundredths due to the weakness of
the incoming moisture and existing dry air. High temperatures will
be locally a few degrees cooler where very light precipitation and
thicker cloud cover is expected, but highs should still reach 50 to
55 degrees in most locations.

Any rain this afternoon will quickly diminish this evening as weak
high pressure filters in behind the departing system. Lows tonight
into Friday morning may fall into the mid to upper 30s under weak
surface flow, but widespread temperatures at or below the freezing
mark are not anticipated. A warming trend is expected Friday through
Saturday as southerly flow returns and an upper level ridge builds
across the central CONUS, bringing highs into the mid to upper 60s
for Friday and the mid to upper 70s by Saturday. Rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday into Monday as a
surface front stalls near the northern CWA border and slowly sinks
southward, holding temperatures down a bit for Sunday and Monday. By
Tuesday, above normal temperatures will return with readings near or
in excess of 80 degrees expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Broken stratocumulus with bases at or just above 2 kft will begin to
scatter out across the KC terminals within the next hour. This will
leave broken mid cloud ceilings around 15 kft through much of the
afternoon.

Northerly winds will become light and variable by late afternoon,
and will remain nearly calm overnight into early Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Bookbinder










000
FXUS63 KEAX 171118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Main concerns for today will be temperatures in the wake of a cold
frontal passage and rain chances as a shortwave trough pushes east
into the forecast area. Temperatures will be dependent on the amount
of cloud cover and any precipitation-associated cooling that occurs
this afternoon, especially as northerly winds and thus any cold air
advection will begin to wane during the early to mid afternoon.

Low- and midlevel dry air is fairly homogeneous across the CWA this
morning, and will be difficult to overcome for measurable precip to
occur this afternoon. Pacific moisture currently associated with the
approaching shortwave trough will mostly filter southeast with the
primary 700 mb low this afternoon, but most models are showing a
weak secondary shortwave trough ejecting northeast into the southern
half of the CWA and carrying with it a narrow finger of moisture in
the 700-800 mb layer. General model consensus including high-res
guidance is to keep most precipitation along and south of a line
from the southern KC metro to Macon, and even in these areas, total
precipitation should only be a few hundredths due to the weakness of
the incoming moisture and existing dry air. High temperatures will
be locally a few degrees cooler where very light precipitation and
thicker cloud cover is expected, but highs should still reach 50 to
55 degrees in most locations.

Any rain this afternoon will quickly diminish this evening as weak
high pressure filters in behind the departing system. Lows tonight
into Friday morning may fall into the mid to upper 30s under weak
surface flow, but widespread temperatures at or below the freezing
mark are not anticipated. A warming trend is expected Friday through
Saturday as southerly flow returns and an upper level ridge builds
across the central CONUS, bringing highs into the mid to upper 60s
for Friday and the mid to upper 70s by Saturday. Rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday into Monday as a
surface front stalls near the northern CWA border and slowly sinks
southward, holding temperatures down a bit for Sunday and Monday. By
Tuesday, above normal temperatures will return with readings near or
in excess of 80 degrees expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Broken stratocumulus with bases around 2 kft will gradually
scatter out by mid morning across the region, leaving behind
VFR conditions and scattered to broken ceilings around 12-15 kft.
Very light rain showers are possible along and south of a line from
the southern KC metro to Macon this afternoon, but are not expected
to significantly reduce ceilings or visibility. Northerly winds will
become light and variable by late afternoon, and will remain nearly
calm overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 170817
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Main concerns for today will be temperatures in the wake of a cold
frontal passage and rain chances as a shortwave trough pushes east
into the forecast area. Temperatures will be dependent on the amount
of cloud cover and any precipitation-associated cooling that occurs
this afternoon, especially as northerly winds and thus any cold air
advection will begin to wane during the early to mid afternoon.

Low- and midlevel dry air is fairly homogeneous across the CWA this
morning, and will be difficult to overcome for measurable precip to
occur this afternoon. Pacific moisture currently associated with the
approaching shortwave trough will mostly filter southeast with the
primary 700 mb low this afternoon, but most models are showing a
weak secondary shortwave trough ejecting northeast into the southern
half of the CWA and carrying with it a narrow finger of moisture in
the 700-800 mb layer. General model consensus including high-res
guidance is to keep most precipitation along and south of a line
from the southern KC metro to Macon, and even in these areas, total
precipitation should only be a few hundredths due to the weakness of
the incoming moisture and existing dry air. High temperatures will
be locally a few degrees cooler where very light precipitation and
thicker cloud cover is expected, but highs should still reach 50 to
55 degrees in most locations.

Any rain this afternoon will quickly diminish this evening as weak
high pressure filters in behind the departing system. Lows tonight
into Friday morning may fall into the mid to upper 30s under weak
surface flow, but widespread temperatures at or below the freezing
mark are not anticipated. A warming trend is expected Friday through
Saturday as southerly flow returns and an upper level ridge builds
across the central CONUS, bringing highs into the mid to upper 60s
for Friday and the mid to upper 70s by Saturday. Rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday into Monday as a
surface front stalls near the northern CWA border and slowly sinks
southward, holding temperatures down a bit for Sunday and Monday. By
Tuesday, above normal temperatures will return with readings near or
in excess of 80 degrees expected Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front has moved southeast of the terminals this evening and
will continue into southern MO where it will stall tomorrow. MVFR
ceilings will spread across parts of northern MO overnight, nicking
KSTJ at the beginning of the forecast period. Currently believe the
MVFR clouds will stay just northeast of KMCI/KMKC. Areas of light
rain are expected to advance northeast into west central MO by late
Thursday morning. However, the rain is likely to remain just south of
KMKC.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 170514
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Windy conditions will continue through the next several hours ahead
of an advancing cold front that will arrive across NW MO early this
evening. Wind advisory is in good shape, and thus far red flag
conditions have been avoided thus far thanks to dewpoints holding in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Both headlines will remain active through
expected expiration times of 7PM unless conditions improve by 23Z.

Per visible satellite imagery, post-frontal cloud cover across
Kansas and srn Nebraska is diurnal in nature, and should dissipate
with sunset, leaving a rather unassuming frontal passage. Winds will
shift into the northwest later this evening, but the gusty winds
presently observed behind the boundary will largely diminish due to
decoupling and a gradual relaxation of the surface pressure gradient.
Nonetheless, colder air will steadily filter into the area, with a
lot of bottom room given the ambient dewpoints.

For Thursday, banded cloud cover should begin to spread into the srn
zones tomorrow morning as mid level frontogenesis intensifies ahead
of a broader mid level trough and attendant jet streak at its base.
Deep layer RH is rather paltry in the wake of tonight`s frontal
passage, but enough baroclinity exists within the narrow zone of
ascent to force out a band of very light rain across the southern and
eastern half of the area (west central and central MO primarily)
during the late morning and afternoon. Compared to the foot of snow
the GFS was predicting back 4-5 days ago, the word "event" would
largely oversell the couple hundredths of an inch of rain forecast.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the 50-55 range most areas.

For Friday into early next week, promising changes are coming for
gardeners and Spring enthusiasts. The overall pattern is expected to
become largely zonal in nature, mixed with periods of subtropical
ridging as the primary jet axis shifts along the US-Canadian border.
The only period of inclement weather remains associated with a slow
moving mid level cyclone that will reach the area on Sunday. We
should see a prolonged period of above normal temperatures,
especially heading into next week.

With respect to Sunday, have sided with the ECMWF which suggests that
a strong EML will spread northeast through the Plains on the backside
of a pronounced shortwave ridge across the lower-mid Mississippi
Valley regions. This scenario would delay the arrival of the upstream
trough and keep the area capped to convection until later in the
day/evening -- a far different scenario than the much wetter GFS. The
focus for convection will be mainly driven by mid level cooling
associated with the actual trough, given the weaker surface
reflection and poor wind profiles through the entire troposphere. For
now, expect some elevated convection to possibly clip the NW CWA late
Saturday night and Sunday morning, with a warm and increasingly humid
day Sunday, giving way to scattered showers/storms in the afternoon
and evening. Poor kinematic setup would suggest strong/severe weather
is unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front has moved southeast of the terminals this evening and
will continue into southern MO where it will stall tomorrow. MVFR
ceilings will spread across parts of northern MO overnight, nicking
KSTJ at the beginning of the forecast period. Currently believe the
MVFR clouds will stay just northeast of KMCI/KMKC. Areas of light
rain are expected to advance northeast into west central MO by late
Thursday morning. However, the rain is likely to remain just south of
KMKC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 162340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Windy conditions will continue through the next several hours ahead
of an advancing cold front that will arrive across NW MO early this
evening. Wind advisory is in good shape, and thus far red flag
conditions have been avoided thus far thanks to dewpoints holding in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Both headlines will remain active through
expected expiration times of 7PM unless conditions improve by 23Z.

Per visible satellite imagery, post-frontal cloud cover across
Kansas and srn Nebraska is diurnal in nature, and should dissipate
with sunset, leaving a rather unassuming frontal passage. Winds will
shift into the northwest later this evening, but the gusty winds
presently observed behind the boundary will largely diminish due to
decoupling and a gradual relaxation of the surface pressure gradient.
Nonetheless, colder air will steadily filter into the area, with a
lot of bottom room given the ambient dewpoints.

For Thursday, banded cloud cover should begin to spread into the srn
zones tomorrow morning as mid level frontogenesis intensifies ahead
of a broader mid level trough and attendant jet streak at its base.
Deep layer RH is rather paltry in the wake of tonight`s frontal
passage, but enough baroclinity exists within the narrow zone of
ascent to force out a band of very light rain across the southern and
eastern half of the area (west central and central MO primarily)
during the late morning and afternoon. Compared to the foot of snow
the GFS was predicting back 4-5 days ago, the word "event" would
largely oversell the couple hundredths of an inch of rain forecast.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the 50-55 range most areas.

For Friday into early next week, promising changes are coming for
gardeners and Spring enthusiasts. The overall pattern is expected to
become largely zonal in nature, mixed with periods of subtropical
ridging as the primary jet axis shifts along the US-Canadian border.
The only period of inclement weather remains associated with a slow
moving mid level cyclone that will reach the area on Sunday. We
should see a prolonged period of above normal temperatures,
especially heading into next week.

With respect to Sunday, have sided with the ECMWF which suggests that
a strong EML will spread northeast through the Plains on the backside
of a pronounced shortwave ridge across the lower-mid Mississippi
Valley regions. This scenario would delay the arrival of the upstream
trough and keep the area capped to convection until later in the
day/evening -- a far different scenario than the much wetter GFS. The
focus for convection will be mainly driven by mid level cooling
associated with the actual trough, given the weaker surface
reflection and poor wind profiles through the entire troposphere. For
now, expect some elevated convection to possibly clip the NW CWA late
Saturday night and Sunday morning, with a warm and increasingly humid
day Sunday, giving way to scattered showers/storms in the afternoon
and evening. Poor kinematic setup would suggest strong/severe weather
is unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A dry cold front will pass through northwest MO and northeast KS
early this evening and put an end to the very strong and gusty south-
southwest winds. Northwest winds will be gusty for a few hours after
the front passes through. They will weaken by late evening as the
pressure and thermal gradients relax. A mix of mid and high level
ceilings are expected.

Light rain may spread into parts of east central KS and west central
MO Thursday afternoon but likely remain just south of KMCI/KMKC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 162037
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Windy conditions will continue through the next several hours ahead
of an advancing cold front that will arrive across NW MO early this
evening. Wind advisory is in good shape, and thus far red flag
conditions have been avoided thus far thanks to dewpoints holding in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Both headlines will remain active through
expected expiration times of 7PM unless conditions improve by 23Z.

Per visible satellite imagery, post-frontal cloud cover across
Kansas and srn Nebraska is diurnal in nature, and should dissipate
with sunset, leaving a rather unassuming frontal passage. Winds will
shift into the northwest later this evening, but the gusty winds
presently observed behind the boundary will largely diminish due to
decoupling and a gradual relaxation of the surface pressure gradient.
Nonetheless, colder air will steadily filter into the area, with a
lot of bottom room given the ambient dewpoints.

For Thursday, banded cloud cover should begin to spread into the srn
zones tomorrow morning as mid level frontogenesis intensifies ahead
of a broader mid level trough and attendant jet streak at its base.
Deep layer RH is rather paltry in the wake of tonight`s frontal
passage, but enough baroclinity exists within the narrow zone of
ascent to force out a band of very light rain across the southern and
eastern half of the area (west central and central MO primarily)
during the late morning and afternoon. Compared to the foot of snow
the GFS was predicting back 4-5 days ago, the word "event" would
largely oversell the couple hundredths of an inch of rain forecast.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the 50-55 range most areas.

For Friday into early next week, promising changes are coming for
gardeners and Spring enthusiasts. The overall pattern is expected to
become largely zonal in nature, mixed with periods of subtropical
ridging as the primary jet axis shifts along the US-Canadian border.
The only period of inclement weather remains associated with a slow
moving mid level cyclone that will reach the area on Sunday. We
should see a prolonged period of above normal temperatures,
especially heading into next week.

With respect to Sunday, have sided with the ECMWF which suggests that
a strong EML will spread northeast through the Plains on the backside
of a pronounced shortwave ridge across the lower-mid Mississippi
Valley regions. This scenario would delay the arrival of the upstream
trough and keep the area capped to convection until later in the
day/evening -- a far different scenario than the much wetter GFS. The
focus for convection will be mainly driven by mid level cooling
associated with the actual trough, given the weaker surface
reflection and poor wind profiles through the entire troposphere. For
now, expect some elevated convection to possibly clip the NW CWA late
Saturday night and Sunday morning, with a warm and increasingly humid
day Sunday, giving way to scattered showers/storms in the afternoon
and evening. Poor kinematic setup would suggest strong/severe weather
is unlikely.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Strong and gusty winds of 35 to perhaps 40 knots will continue
across the terminals through 23Z (slightly lower at MKC), before
gradually diminishing and becoming southwest this evening. A shift
to the northwest is anticipated toward 06Z with a decrease in speeds
to 8-12 knots.

VFR conditions will otherwise continue with periods of high clouds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...Bookbinder








000
FXUS63 KEAX 161747
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1247 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Looking at the synoptic scale...a progressive pattern is noted
dominated the mid-latitudes of North America, with a shortwave
trough of note moving east into the Northern Plains early this
morning. Resulting lee-side surface trough has begun to develop
across the Dakotas and Nebraska early this morning. Looking a bit
above the surface, a stout low level jet is noted across the Central
Plains in response to the trough, with the surface pressure gradient
tightening significantly.

Today...Main focus will be on the combination of wind and dry air
which will likely result in a couple of different related hazards
across the region. The pressure gradient will continue to increase
across the region ahead of a cold front that will swing into the
region tonight as the northern stream trough moves east across the
Northern Plains. Add to this clear to mostly clear skies and the
potential for deep layer mixing --though 800mb at least-- and there
is a reasonable amount of confidence that wind advisory criteria will
be met in many areas today as momentum mixes down. Best location
look to be far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, but wind
speeds farther east will be fairly near criteria. So, will hedge a
little for today and go with a Wind Advisory for the entire region
from 15Z through 00Z today.

However, wind isn`t our only problem. Dry air will also be present
which will significantly heighten fire weather concerns across the
region. For more information, please see the FIRE WEATHER section of
this discussion below.

Thursday into Friday...A broader trough axis will follow the leading
northern stream shortwave through the Plains States. This trough
will likely help wash the cold front out that the leading wave
brought into Missouri. This is the same feature that was advertised
several days ago by some models to be bringing a significant snow
storm to the region. Fortunately models have converged on warmer and
farther south solutions with the latest runs, and have back off on
the overall chance of precipitation for Thursday and Friday.
However, that being said, will be keeping some chance POPs going,
mostly across the southeast half of the forecast area as some
moisture is advertised to advect up and along the elevated
baroclinic zone that will still be in place aloft. Given general
lack of moisture QPF values will be low. Otherwise, temperatures
will be cool Thursday thanks to the frontal passage and rain
potential, though readings will quickly begin rebounding Friday.

Saturday through Sunday...Temperatures will continue to rebound as a
shortwave ridge moves east across the Plains ahead of the next set
of phased troughs that will bring rain this weekend. Precipitation
chances will ramp up late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night
as strong warm air advection develops ahead of the next weak cold
front that will move through the region. The chance for storms this
weekend looks much better than our Thursday-Friday chances, but will
still depend on available moisture, which still might be scares if
The Gulf doesn`t open up some between now and then.

Otherwise...have added a couple of degrees to forecast highs for
next work week as the advertised shortwave ridge following behind
the weekend trough should lift highs well above normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Strong and gusty southwest winds will dominate the region today
along with dry conditions. A cold front developing across the
western Plains this morning will result in strong and gusty winds
across eastern Kansas and Missouri today, with speeds well in excess
of critical fire weather conditions --south wind with speeds ranging
25 to 35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH--. The front will settle south
into Missouri later tonight. Question then is how will humidity
values respond, and given the lack of available moister noted across
the region, left thinking that humidity values will rapidly mix out
late this morning with values dropping below 25% in many areas this
afternoon. The combination of high winds and low humidity values will
result in critical fire conditions, so will issue a Red Flag warning
for the entire forecast area for today.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Strong and gusty winds of 35 to perhaps 40 knots will continue
across the terminals through 23Z (slightly lower at MKC), before
gradually diminishing and becoming southwest this evening. A shift
to the northwest is anticipated toward 06Z with a decrease in speeds
to 8-12 knots.

VFR conditions will otherwise continue with periods of high clouds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Bookbinder
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter











000
FXUS63 KEAX 161127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Looking at the synoptic scale...a progressive pattern is noted
dominated the mid-latitudes of North America, with a shortwave
trough of note moving east into the Northern Plains early this
morning. Resulting lee-side surface trough has begun to develop
across the Dakotas and Nebraska early this morning. Looking a bit
above the surface, a stout low level jet is noted across the Central
Plains in response to the trough, with the surface pressure gradient
tightening significantly.

Today...Main focus will be on the combination of wind and dry air
which will likely result in a couple of different related hazards
across the region. The pressure gradient will continue to increase
across the region ahead of a cold front that will swing into the
region tonight as the northern stream trough moves east across the
Northern Plains. Add to this clear to mostly clear skies and the
potential for deep layer mixing --though 800mb at least-- and there
is a reasonable amount of confidence that wind advisory criteria will
be met in many areas today as momentum mixes down. Best location look to
be far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, but wind speeds
farther east will be fairly near criteria. So, will hedge a little
for today and go with a Wind Advisory for the entire region from 15Z
through 00Z today.

However, wind isn`t our only problem. Dry air will also be present
which will significantly heighten fire weather concerns across the
region. For more information, please see the FIRE WEATHER section of
this discussion below.

Thursday into Friday...A broader trough axis will follow the leading
northern stream shortwave through the Plains States. This trough
will likely help wash the cold front out that the leading wave
brought into Missouri. This is the same feature that was advertised
several days ago by some models to be bringing a significant snow
storm to the region. Fortunately models have converged on warmer and
farther south solutions with the latest runs, and have back off on
the overall chance of precipitation for Thursday and Friday.
However, that being said, will be keeping some chance POPs going,
mostly across the southeast half of the forecast area as some
moisture is advertised to advect up and along the elevated
baroclinic zone that will still be in place aloft. Given general
lack of moisture QPF values will be low. Otherwise, temperatures
will be cool Thursday thanks to the frontal passage and rain
potential, though readings will quickly begin rebounding Friday.

Saturday through Sunday...Temperatures will continue to rebound as a
shortwave ridge moves east across the Plains ahead of the next set
of phased troughs that will bring rain this weekend. Precipitation
chances will ramp up late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night
as strong warm air advection develops ahead of the next weak cold
front that will move through the region. The chance for storms this
weekend looks much better than our Thursday-Friday chances, but will
still depend on available moisture, which still might be scares if
The Gulf doesn`t open up some between now and then.

Otherwise...have added a couple of degrees to forecast highs for
next work week as the advertised shortwave ridge following behind
the weekend trough should lift highs well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Big issue to
watch will be the wind, though mostly due to its strength as the
direction will be consistent and only change slowly, even this
evening as a front moves through. Breezy south winds are already
evident at the terminals this morning, and will only increase
through the morning hours. A modest cold front will sweep into the
region tonight turning the winds to the north by Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Strong and gusty southwest winds will dominate the region today
along with dry conditions. A cold front developing across the
western Plains this morning will result in strong and gusty winds
across eastern Kansas and Missouri today, with speeds well in excess
of critical fire weather conditions --south wind with speeds ranging
25 to 35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH--. The front will settle south
into Missouri later tonight. Question then is how will humidity
values respond, and given the lack of available moister noted across
the region, left thinking that humidity values will rapidly mix out
late this morning with values dropping below 25% in many areas this
afternoon. The combination of high winds and low humidity values will
result in critical fire conditions, so will issue a Red Flag warning
for the entire forecast area for today.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter









000
FXUS63 KEAX 160854
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Looking at the synoptic scale...a progressive pattern is noted
dominated the mid-latitudes of North America, with a shortwave
trough of note moving east into the Northern Plains early this
morning. Resulting lee-side surface trough has begun to develop
across the Dakotas and Nebraska early this morning. Looking a bit
above the surface, a stout low level jet is noted across the Central
Plains in response to the trough, with the surface pressure gradient
tightening significantly.

Today...Main focus will be on the combination of wind and dry air
which will likely result in a couple of different related hazards
across the region. The pressure gradient will continue to increase
across the region ahead of a cold front that will swing into the
region tonight as the northern stream trough moves east across the
Northern Plains. Add to this clear to mostly clear skies and the
potential for deep layer mixing --though 800mb at least-- and there
is a reasonable amount of confidence that wind advisory criteria will
be met in many areas today as momentum mixes down. Best location look to
be far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, but wind speeds
farther east will be fairly near criteria. So, will hedge a little
for today and go with a Wind Advisory for the entire region from 15Z
through 00Z today.

However, wind isn`t our only problem. Dry air will also be present
which will significantly heighten fire weather concerns across the
region. For more information, please see the FIRE WEATHER section of
this discussion below.

Thursday into Friday...A broader trough axis will follow the leading
northern stream shortwave through the Plains States. This trough
will likely help wash the cold front out that the leading wave
brought into Missouri. This is the same feature that was advertised
several days ago by some models to be bringing a significant snow
storm to the region. Fortunately models have converged on warmer and
farther south solutions with the latest runs, and have back off on
the overall chance of precipitation for Thursday and Friday.
However, that being said, will be keeping some chance POPs going,
mostly across the southeast half of the forecast area as some
moisture is advertised to advect up and along the elevated
baroclinic zone that will still be in place aloft. Given general
lack of moisture QPF values will be low. Otherwise, temperatures
will be cool Thursday thanks to the frontal passage and rain
potential, though readings will quickly begin rebounding Friday.

Saturday through Sunday...Temperatures will continue to rebound as a
shortwave ridge moves east across the Plains ahead of the next set
of phased troughs that will bring rain this weekend. Precipitation
chances will ramp up late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night
as strong warm air advection develops ahead of the next weak cold
front that will move through the region. The chance for storms this
weekend looks much better than our Thursday-Friday chances, but will
still depend on available moisture, which still might be scares if
The Gulf doesn`t open up some between now and then.

Otherwise...have added a couple of degrees to forecast highs for
next work week as the advertised shortwave ridge following behind
the weekend trough should lift highs well above normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Strong and gusty southwest winds will dominate the region today
along with dry conditions. A cold front developing across the
western Plains this morning will result in strong and gusty winds
across eastern Kansas and Missouri today, with speeds well in excess
of critical fire weather conditions --south wind with speeds ranging
25 to 35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH--. The front will settle south
into Missouri later tonight. Question then is how will humidity
values respond, and given the lack of available moister noted across
the region, left thinking that humidity values will rapidly mix out
late this morning with values dropping below 25% in many areas this
afternoon. The combination of high winds and low humidity values will
result in critical fire conditions, so will issue a Red Flag warning
for the entire forecast area for today.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Cirrus continues to spill across the terminals at midnight. However
the big aviation story will deal with marginal LLWS through daybreak
followed by very gusty winds on Wednesday. Winds should begin to
increase across western Missouri and eastern Kansas through the
night, with KMCI (due to it`s elevation) likely seeing gusty
conditions. Have maintained LLWS at both MKC and STJ. Otherwise an
increasing pressure gradient and strong LLJ will allow near wind
advisory level winds (30 mph sustained/45mph gusts) to form by mid-
morning Wednesday and continue through mid-afternoon. By 4pm, winds
will begin to subside slightly.

A front will approach the area in the evening with a wind shift to
the northwest after 03Z. VFR conditions are expected with this front
and any cloud cover accompanying it.


&&


.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter
AVIATION...Dux









000
FXUS63 KEAX 160414
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1114 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Overview:

No major systems to contend with over the next 7 days but there will
be a couple of weak features which will bring a threat of relatively
light precipitation...one on Thursday and the other Saturday
night-Sunday.

Tonight-Wednesday:

High pressure from the Great Lakes into east TX will shift quickly
east with increasingly strong southerly flow spreading west to east
tonight. A very strong low level jet with h8 winds from 50-60kt is
expected to develop from the TX Panhandle through west IA later
tonight. This swath of winds will overspread the CWA on Wednesday
with strong mixing generating sustained surface winds from 20-25kt
with gusts approaching 40kts or just below wind advisory criteria.
These winds will also draw in an elevated warm and dry mixed layer.
See Fire Weather section for details on fire weather danger.

Wednesday night-Thursday:

A clipper type upper system will zip through NE/IA/MN Wednesday
night and force a cold front into the CWA. While the clipper passes
to the north the cold front will likely stall somewhere over the
CWA. Models are similar in handling a second more southern shortwave
tracking east out of CO on Thursday. Layered frontogenesis will
likely provide sufficient moist ascent to wring out some light rain.
While the GFS, which just 3 days ago had forecast a snowstorm here,
is tracking the bulk of the rain further south, even the ECMWF and
NAM have been trending further south as well. So, have trimmed back
PoPs and shifted area further south.

Friday and Saturday:

Benign weather pattern as a shortwave ridge shifts northeast with
increasing warm air advection. After a cool start on Friday we
should see seasonal or slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday.

Saturday night-Sunday:

A southern stream system with increasing isentropic ascent will
likely generate scattered convection starting as early as Saturday
night. System looks weak enough with minimal instability to preclude
a severe threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Cirrus continues to spill across the terminals at midnight. However
the big aviation story will deal with marginal LLWS through daybreak
followed by very gusty winds on Wednesday. Winds should begin to
increase across western Missouri and eastern Kansas through the
night, with KMCI (due to it`s elevation) likely seeing gusty
conditions. Have maintained LLWS at both MKC and STJ. Otherwise an
increasing pressure gradient and strong LLJ will allow near wind
advisory level winds (30 mph sustained/45mph gusts) to form by mid-
morning Wednesday and continue through mid-afternoon. By 4pm, winds
will begin to subside slightly.

A front will approach the area in the evening with a wind shift to
the northwest after 03Z. VFR conditions are expected with this front
and any cloud cover accompanying it.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 406 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

As has been the case since late Winter the models appear to be over-
forecasting the surface dewpoints. The source region of this dry
airmass, the Southern High Plains into western KS, saw dewpoints from
the single digits into the middle 20s. Have gone much lower than
guidance forecast on dewpoints and potential to go even lower.
However, not enough confidence to go to extremes as a strong
southerly surface wind will be trying to draw up modified gulf
moisture. Late morning/afternoon relative humidity values at or below
25 percent, winds in the 20-30kt range plus native grasses still well
cured for the most part despite the recent heavy rains the CWA could
reach or exceed Red Flag Warning criteria. For now will issue a Fire
Weather Watch and allow the midshift to reassess the need to upgrade.
In addition, many agencies have been doing prescribed burns today
over the Flint Hills as well as parts of our western CWA, thus
justifying at least the issuance of a Watch for Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Dux
FIRE WEATHER...MJ









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