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000
FXUS63 KEAX 190405
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1105 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Band of stratus over the western and southern CWA has unexpectedly
cleared out since sunset. All this does is increase the risk for more
widespread fog to form. Also expect to see stratus to form as it did
last night. Did lower overnight lows by a few degrees due to lack of
evening cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Tonight - Friday:

The weak stationary front that has been draped to our south is
expected to lift northward late tonight as a warm front. This will
be most noticeable as winds become more southerly with time tomorrow
morning and temperatures start to climb into the middle 80s.
Although cloud cover may be slower to erode resulting in lower than
forecast temperatures. But the change in air mass alone will result
in much warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon, especially over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Regarding precipitation, the chances for showers and storms has
decreased due to a trend to push to the strongest moist isentropic
ascent north of the forecast area. There may be some showers develop
in northwestern Missouri late tonight, but for now the chances look
too low to mention at this time.

Saturday  - Sunday:

An upper-level shortwave trough will track across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through the day Saturday. This will push a
cold front through the area from late in the afternoon through the
overnight hours. It still appears there will be a good chance for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front as it`s moving through.
But the chances for severe weather still appear to be fairly low for
several reasons. First, surface and low level winds are strongly
veered ahead of the boundary, limiting helicity values. Second, the
upper-level support from the upper trough will be well removed from
the region. This will keep the deep layer shear relatively weak.
While instability may be modest to strong, perhaps as high as 2500 to
3000 J/kg, the weak low-level convergence and low shear will inhibit
a higher probability of severe storms. However, forecast soundings
do show an increasingly favorable environment for down burst winds
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. So while
widespread severe weather doesn`t seem likely, the strongest storms
could produce strong and/or damaging winds.

That cold front will have pushed through the area by Sunday morning
with high pressure moving in behind. So we`ll see temperatures
trending cooler with dry conditions prevailing for the day Sunday.

Monday - Thursday:

That high pressure area will lead to continued dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the 70s. As the high shifts to the east by
Wednesday, and another shortwave trough approaches from the west,
showers and storms will become possible by Wednesday. That upper-
level shortwave makes very slow eastward progression as the upper
ridge builds over it and as a result we`ll continue to see
precipitation chances through Thursday with temperatures very close
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Earlier IFR/MVFR stratus deck has all but dissipated across the
northern half of MO and eastern KS this evening. However, this now sets
the stage for better fog formation during the pre-dawn hours of
Friday morning. Adding in local effects at KSTJ and dense fog now
becomes a concern for a few hours either side of sunrise. IFR/MVFR
fog and IFR/LIFR visibilities will linger for most of the morning
before winds veer to the south and warmer air mixes in and scatters
out the cloud during the afternoon.



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 190405
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1105 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Band of stratus over the western and southern CWA has unexpectedly
cleared out since sunset. All this does is increase the risk for more
widespread fog to form. Also expect to see stratus to form as it did
last night. Did lower overnight lows by a few degrees due to lack of
evening cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Tonight - Friday:

The weak stationary front that has been draped to our south is
expected to lift northward late tonight as a warm front. This will
be most noticeable as winds become more southerly with time tomorrow
morning and temperatures start to climb into the middle 80s.
Although cloud cover may be slower to erode resulting in lower than
forecast temperatures. But the change in air mass alone will result
in much warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon, especially over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Regarding precipitation, the chances for showers and storms has
decreased due to a trend to push to the strongest moist isentropic
ascent north of the forecast area. There may be some showers develop
in northwestern Missouri late tonight, but for now the chances look
too low to mention at this time.

Saturday  - Sunday:

An upper-level shortwave trough will track across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through the day Saturday. This will push a
cold front through the area from late in the afternoon through the
overnight hours. It still appears there will be a good chance for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front as it`s moving through.
But the chances for severe weather still appear to be fairly low for
several reasons. First, surface and low level winds are strongly
veered ahead of the boundary, limiting helicity values. Second, the
upper-level support from the upper trough will be well removed from
the region. This will keep the deep layer shear relatively weak.
While instability may be modest to strong, perhaps as high as 2500 to
3000 J/kg, the weak low-level convergence and low shear will inhibit
a higher probability of severe storms. However, forecast soundings
do show an increasingly favorable environment for down burst winds
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. So while
widespread severe weather doesn`t seem likely, the strongest storms
could produce strong and/or damaging winds.

That cold front will have pushed through the area by Sunday morning
with high pressure moving in behind. So we`ll see temperatures
trending cooler with dry conditions prevailing for the day Sunday.

Monday - Thursday:

That high pressure area will lead to continued dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the 70s. As the high shifts to the east by
Wednesday, and another shortwave trough approaches from the west,
showers and storms will become possible by Wednesday. That upper-
level shortwave makes very slow eastward progression as the upper
ridge builds over it and as a result we`ll continue to see
precipitation chances through Thursday with temperatures very close
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Earlier IFR/MVFR stratus deck has all but dissipated across the
northern half of MO and eastern KS this evening. However, this now sets
the stage for better fog formation during the pre-dawn hours of
Friday morning. Adding in local effects at KSTJ and dense fog now
becomes a concern for a few hours either side of sunrise. IFR/MVFR
fog and IFR/LIFR visibilities will linger for most of the morning
before winds veer to the south and warmer air mixes in and scatters
out the cloud during the afternoon.



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 190205
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
905 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Band of stratus over the western and southern CWA has unexpectedly
cleared out since sunset. All this does is increase the risk for more
widespread fog to form. Also expect to see stratus to form as it did
last night. Did lower overnight lows by a few degrees due to lack of
evening cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Tonight - Friday:

The weak stationary front that has been draped to our south is
expected to lift northward late tonight as a warm front. This will
be most noticeable as winds become more southerly with time tomorrow
morning and temperatures start to climb into the middle 80s.
Although cloud cover may be slower to erode resulting in lower than
forecast temperatures. But the change in air mass alone will result
in much warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon, especially over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Regarding precipitation, the chances for showers and storms has
decreased due to a trend to push to the strongest moist isentropic
ascent north of the forecast area. There may be some showers develop
in northwestern Missouri late tonight, but for now the chances look
too low to mention at this time.

Saturday  - Sunday:

An upper-level shortwave trough will track across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through the day Saturday. This will push a
cold front through the area from late in the afternoon through the
overnight hours. It still appears there will be a good chance for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front as it`s moving through.
But the chances for severe weather still appear to be fairly low for
several reasons. First, surface and low level winds are strongly
veered ahead of the boundary, limiting helicity values. Second, the
upper-level support from the upper trough will be well removed from
the region. This will keep the deep layer shear relatively weak.
While instability may be modest to strong, perhaps as high as 2500 to
3000 J/kg, the weak low-level convergence and low shear will inhibit
a higher probability of severe storms. However, forecast soundings
do show an increasingly favorable environment for down burst winds
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. So while
widespread severe weather doesn`t seem likely, the strongest storms
could produce strong and/or damaging winds.

That cold front will have pushed through the area by Sunday morning
with high pressure moving in behind. So we`ll see temperatures
trending cooler with dry conditions prevailing for the day Sunday.

Monday - Thursday:

That high pressure area will lead to continued dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the 70s. As the high shifts to the east by
Wednesday, and another shortwave trough approaches from the west,
showers and storms will become possible by Wednesday. That upper-
level shortwave makes very slow eastward progression as the upper
ridge builds over it and as a result we`ll continue to see
precipitation chances through Thursday with temperatures very close
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Northwest-southeast band of IFR/MVFR cigs from northeast KS through
central MO proving tough to get rid of. Satellite loops do show some
erosion on the eastern fringes but once the sun goes down may not see
much more erosion so this band of low clouds will likely persist
through the night. A positive to this means any fog formation will
likely remain within the MVFR range. The IFR/MVFR cigs will likely
linger through Friday morning until winds veer to the south and a
warm front lifts north through eastern KS and western MO. This should
enhance the mixing and eventually scatter out the cloud cover in the
afternoon.

Northern and parts of central MO which have scattered out could see
IFR fog form later this evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 182335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Tonight - Friday:

The weak stationary front that has been draped to our south is
expected to lift northward late tonight as a warm front. This will
be most noticeable as winds become more southerly with time tomorrow
morning and temperatures start to climb into the middle 80s.
Although cloud cover may be slower to erode resulting in lower than
forecast temperatures. But the change in air mass alone will result
in much warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon, especially over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Regarding precipitation, the chances for showers and storms has
decreased due to a trend to push to the strongest moist isentropic
ascent north of the forecast area. There may be some showers develop
in northwestern Missouri late tonight, but for now the chances look
too low to mention at this time.

Saturday  - Sunday:

An upper-level shortwave trough will track across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through the day Saturday. This will push a
cold front through the area from late in the afternoon through the
overnight hours. It still appears there will be a good chance for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front as it`s moving through.
But the chances for severe weather still appear to be fairly low for
several reasons. First, surface and low level winds are strongly
veered ahead of the boundary, limiting helicity values. Second, the
upper-level support from the upper trough will be well removed from
the region. This will keep the deep layer shear relatively weak.
While instability may be modest to strong, perhaps as high as 2500 to
3000 J/kg, the weak low-level convergence and low shear will inhibit
a higher probability of severe storms. However, forecast soundings
do show an increasingly favorable environment for down burst winds
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. So while
widespread severe weather doesn`t seem likely, the strongest storms
could produce strong and/or damaging winds.

That cold front will have pushed through the area by Sunday morning
with high pressure moving in behind. So we`ll see temperatures
trending cooler with dry conditions prevailing for the day Sunday.

Monday - Thursday:

That high pressure area will lead to continued dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the 70s. As the high shifts to the east by
Wednesday, and another shortwave trough approaches from the west,
showers and storms will become possible by Wednesday. That upper-
level shortwave makes very slow eastward progression as the upper
ridge builds over it and as a result we`ll continue to see
precipitation chances through Thursday with temperatures very close
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Northwest-southeast band of IFR/MVFR cigs from northeast KS through
central MO proving tough to get rid of. Satellite loops do show some
erosion on the eastern fringes but once the sun goes down may not see
much more erosion so this band of low clouds will likely persist
through the night. A positive to this means any fog formation will
likely remain within the MVFR range. The IFR/MVFR cigs will likely
linger through Friday morning until winds veer to the south and a
warm front lifts north through eastern KS and western MO. This should
enhance the mixing and eventually scatter out the cloud cover in the
afternoon.

Northern and parts of central MO which have scattered out could see
IFR fog form later this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 182335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Tonight - Friday:

The weak stationary front that has been draped to our south is
expected to lift northward late tonight as a warm front. This will
be most noticeable as winds become more southerly with time tomorrow
morning and temperatures start to climb into the middle 80s.
Although cloud cover may be slower to erode resulting in lower than
forecast temperatures. But the change in air mass alone will result
in much warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon, especially over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Regarding precipitation, the chances for showers and storms has
decreased due to a trend to push to the strongest moist isentropic
ascent north of the forecast area. There may be some showers develop
in northwestern Missouri late tonight, but for now the chances look
too low to mention at this time.

Saturday  - Sunday:

An upper-level shortwave trough will track across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through the day Saturday. This will push a
cold front through the area from late in the afternoon through the
overnight hours. It still appears there will be a good chance for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front as it`s moving through.
But the chances for severe weather still appear to be fairly low for
several reasons. First, surface and low level winds are strongly
veered ahead of the boundary, limiting helicity values. Second, the
upper-level support from the upper trough will be well removed from
the region. This will keep the deep layer shear relatively weak.
While instability may be modest to strong, perhaps as high as 2500 to
3000 J/kg, the weak low-level convergence and low shear will inhibit
a higher probability of severe storms. However, forecast soundings
do show an increasingly favorable environment for down burst winds
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. So while
widespread severe weather doesn`t seem likely, the strongest storms
could produce strong and/or damaging winds.

That cold front will have pushed through the area by Sunday morning
with high pressure moving in behind. So we`ll see temperatures
trending cooler with dry conditions prevailing for the day Sunday.

Monday - Thursday:

That high pressure area will lead to continued dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the 70s. As the high shifts to the east by
Wednesday, and another shortwave trough approaches from the west,
showers and storms will become possible by Wednesday. That upper-
level shortwave makes very slow eastward progression as the upper
ridge builds over it and as a result we`ll continue to see
precipitation chances through Thursday with temperatures very close
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Northwest-southeast band of IFR/MVFR cigs from northeast KS through
central MO proving tough to get rid of. Satellite loops do show some
erosion on the eastern fringes but once the sun goes down may not see
much more erosion so this band of low clouds will likely persist
through the night. A positive to this means any fog formation will
likely remain within the MVFR range. The IFR/MVFR cigs will likely
linger through Friday morning until winds veer to the south and a
warm front lifts north through eastern KS and western MO. This should
enhance the mixing and eventually scatter out the cloud cover in the
afternoon.

Northern and parts of central MO which have scattered out could see
IFR fog form later this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 182010
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Tonight - Friday:

The weak stationary front that has been draped to our south is
expected to lift northward late tonight as a warm front. This will
be most noticeable as winds become more southerly with time tomorrow
morning and temperatures start to climb into the middle 80s.
Although cloud cover may be slower to erode resulting in lower than
forecast temperatures. But the change in air mass alone will result
in much warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon, especially over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Regarding precipitation, the chances for showers and storms has
decreased due to a trend to push to the strongest moist isentropic
ascent north of the forecast area. There may be some showers develop
in northwestern Missouri late tonight, but for now the chances look
too low to mention at this time.

Saturday  - Sunday:

An upper-level shortwave trough will track across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through the day Saturday. This will push a
cold front through the area from late in the afternoon through the
overnight hours. It still appears there will be a good chance for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front as it`s moving through.
But the chances for severe weather still appear to be fairly low for
several reasons. First, surface and low level winds are strongly
veered ahead of the boundary, limiting helicity values. Second, the
upper-level support from the upper trough will be well removed from
the region. This will keep the deep layer shear relatively weak.
While instability may be modest to strong, perhaps as high as 2500 to
3000 J/kg, the weak low-level convergence and low shear will inhibit
a higher probability of severe storms. However, forecast soundings
do show an increasingly favorable environment for down burst winds
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. So while
widespread severe weather doesn`t seem likely, the strongest storms
could produce strong and/or damaging winds.

That cold front will have pushed through the area by Sunday morning
with high pressure moving in behind. So we`ll see temperatures
trending cooler with dry conditions prevailing for the day Sunday.

Monday - Thursday:

That high pressure area will lead to continued dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the 70s. As the high shifts to the east by
Wednesday, and another shortwave trough approaches from the west,
showers and storms will become possible by Wednesday. That upper-
level shortwave makes very slow eastward progression as the upper
ridge builds over it and as a result we`ll continue to see
precipitation chances through Thursday with temperatures very close
to normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Conditions may become low end MVFR this afternoon but should still
remain below 2000 ft. But like the last few nights, IFR ceilings and
potentially visibilities will once again develop as the warm front
will remain to our south for much of the forecast. Towards the end of
the forecast, that front should lift northward through the area,
shifting winds to the south. But increasing low level moisture will
keep the ceilings from lifting until tomorrow afternoon. So have kept
IFR ceilings in the forecast from tonight through the end of this
forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 182010
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Tonight - Friday:

The weak stationary front that has been draped to our south is
expected to lift northward late tonight as a warm front. This will
be most noticeable as winds become more southerly with time tomorrow
morning and temperatures start to climb into the middle 80s.
Although cloud cover may be slower to erode resulting in lower than
forecast temperatures. But the change in air mass alone will result
in much warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon, especially over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Regarding precipitation, the chances for showers and storms has
decreased due to a trend to push to the strongest moist isentropic
ascent north of the forecast area. There may be some showers develop
in northwestern Missouri late tonight, but for now the chances look
too low to mention at this time.

Saturday  - Sunday:

An upper-level shortwave trough will track across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through the day Saturday. This will push a
cold front through the area from late in the afternoon through the
overnight hours. It still appears there will be a good chance for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front as it`s moving through.
But the chances for severe weather still appear to be fairly low for
several reasons. First, surface and low level winds are strongly
veered ahead of the boundary, limiting helicity values. Second, the
upper-level support from the upper trough will be well removed from
the region. This will keep the deep layer shear relatively weak.
While instability may be modest to strong, perhaps as high as 2500 to
3000 J/kg, the weak low-level convergence and low shear will inhibit
a higher probability of severe storms. However, forecast soundings
do show an increasingly favorable environment for down burst winds
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. So while
widespread severe weather doesn`t seem likely, the strongest storms
could produce strong and/or damaging winds.

That cold front will have pushed through the area by Sunday morning
with high pressure moving in behind. So we`ll see temperatures
trending cooler with dry conditions prevailing for the day Sunday.

Monday - Thursday:

That high pressure area will lead to continued dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the 70s. As the high shifts to the east by
Wednesday, and another shortwave trough approaches from the west,
showers and storms will become possible by Wednesday. That upper-
level shortwave makes very slow eastward progression as the upper
ridge builds over it and as a result we`ll continue to see
precipitation chances through Thursday with temperatures very close
to normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Conditions may become low end MVFR this afternoon but should still
remain below 2000 ft. But like the last few nights, IFR ceilings and
potentially visibilities will once again develop as the warm front
will remain to our south for much of the forecast. Towards the end of
the forecast, that front should lift northward through the area,
shifting winds to the south. But increasing low level moisture will
keep the ceilings from lifting until tomorrow afternoon. So have kept
IFR ceilings in the forecast from tonight through the end of this
forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181707
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Similar to yesterday, but displaced westward about 100 miles,
convection continues to develop over east central KS. This is
spreading higher cloud cover over the southern portions of the
forecast area. At the lower levels, the surface front remains to the
southwest of the forecast area with easterly surface and low-level
winds. This combination should continue to yield low clouds and
modestly reduced visibilities through the afternoon. With the
anticipation that cloud cover with linger longer, or just not erode
at all, have lowered temperatures across the area by several degrees.
For now, highs look to be in the lower 70s, rather than the mid to
upper 70s as a result. If cloud cover continues to remain thick,
continued downward updates will be needed as highs may then only make
into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today/Tonight: As of this morning, a line of thunderstorms stretch
from Salina KS to Joplin MO, with a gradual southern drift away from
the CWA. Only a slight chance of precipitation is expected for the
remainder of the morning hours over far southwest sections of the
forecast area, where an isolated shower or stratiform blowoff could
drift into the area. Otherwise, the focus has been on an expansive
area of low stratus developing over the area. In addition, areas of
fog have developed with many locations between 1 to 3 miles. The
increase in stratus along with the cirrus canopy from upstream
convection have seemingly helped temporarily mitigate widespread
dense fog from forming. There is also a slow advection of drier air
upon easterly winds, but the temperatures have cooled at nearly the
same rate. At this time, expect some areas to experience patchy
dense fog less than one-half mile prior to 14Z, especially in
low-lying areas, but uncertainty remains how much more widespread
dense fog will develop. Will continue to closely monitor dense fog
trends. Otherwise, low clouds may hold through at least early
afternoon, keeping temperatures initially slow to rise, eventually
reaching the lower to middle 70s by late afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the afternoon into the early evening. The
western portion of the stationary front to our southwest over SC KS
will begin to retreat northward tonight, with increasing warm air
advection and isentropic ascent focused over the western portions of
the CWA overnight. Persistence in the pattern would suggest a third
night of convection north of the stationary front, and models also
hint at a similar scenario. Have inserted thunderstorm chances over
the western quarter of the CWA tonight. Up to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE
may reside over this area, but with marginal deep layer shear, only
a couple strong storms may be possible early in the lifespan of
storms.

Friday/Friday Night: Upper level ridging will shift into the central
CONUS. A long clockwise-curved sfc-H85 trajectory will advect deeper
moisture into the region, with surface dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s. Low clouds may persist through late morning before deeper
mixing commences, with a few scattered thunderstorms remaining north
of Interstate 70 before noon. Otherwise, no precipitation is
expected during the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon high
temperatures will be notably warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
with lows remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday: The upper pattern will feature a closed low developing
over southern California, with a well-defined vort max from the
remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast from the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a strong shortwave trough will
quickly dive towards the Great Lakes states and begin to amplify
into a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The model trends have
continued to look less impressive for widespread heavy rainfall for
the CWA, although chances of rain certainly look warranted. Models
have been slower with the arrival of Odile`s remains, and tend to
shift the track further south and keep it over the Southern Plains.
This places the CWA to the south of the strongest ascent from the
upper trough and to the northeast of the strongest influence of
Odile, greatly reducing confidence for widespread heavy rains. The
majority of the precipitation may be focused along the frontal
slope, which is expected to enter northern Missouri by Saturday
afternoon. To the south of the front, precipitation is more
uncertain until the front moves southward. With this in mind, have
increased temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Long advertised cold front to be working south through the area at
the start of the fcst period. This should allow scattered shwrs and
storms through early Sunday morning with dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week with the arrival of high pressure. A fairly cool airmass
should accompany this feature with some long range models
advertising highs in the upper 60s early next week. Beyond
this...west coast upper low to slowly track east into the Plains by
midweek...with shwr chances increasing across the western zones late
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps should begin to moderate during this
time as southerly flow returns in advance of aforementioned west
coast system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Conditions may become low end MVFR this afternoon but should still
remain below 2000 ft. But like the last few nights, IFR ceilings and
potentially visibilities will once again develop as the warm front
will remain to our south for much of the forecast. Towards the end of
the forecast, that front should lift northward through the area,
shifting winds to the south. But increasing low level moisture will
keep the ceilings from lifting until tomorrow afternoon. So have kept
IFR ceilings in the forecast from tonight through the end of this
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181707
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Similar to yesterday, but displaced westward about 100 miles,
convection continues to develop over east central KS. This is
spreading higher cloud cover over the southern portions of the
forecast area. At the lower levels, the surface front remains to the
southwest of the forecast area with easterly surface and low-level
winds. This combination should continue to yield low clouds and
modestly reduced visibilities through the afternoon. With the
anticipation that cloud cover with linger longer, or just not erode
at all, have lowered temperatures across the area by several degrees.
For now, highs look to be in the lower 70s, rather than the mid to
upper 70s as a result. If cloud cover continues to remain thick,
continued downward updates will be needed as highs may then only make
into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today/Tonight: As of this morning, a line of thunderstorms stretch
from Salina KS to Joplin MO, with a gradual southern drift away from
the CWA. Only a slight chance of precipitation is expected for the
remainder of the morning hours over far southwest sections of the
forecast area, where an isolated shower or stratiform blowoff could
drift into the area. Otherwise, the focus has been on an expansive
area of low stratus developing over the area. In addition, areas of
fog have developed with many locations between 1 to 3 miles. The
increase in stratus along with the cirrus canopy from upstream
convection have seemingly helped temporarily mitigate widespread
dense fog from forming. There is also a slow advection of drier air
upon easterly winds, but the temperatures have cooled at nearly the
same rate. At this time, expect some areas to experience patchy
dense fog less than one-half mile prior to 14Z, especially in
low-lying areas, but uncertainty remains how much more widespread
dense fog will develop. Will continue to closely monitor dense fog
trends. Otherwise, low clouds may hold through at least early
afternoon, keeping temperatures initially slow to rise, eventually
reaching the lower to middle 70s by late afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the afternoon into the early evening. The
western portion of the stationary front to our southwest over SC KS
will begin to retreat northward tonight, with increasing warm air
advection and isentropic ascent focused over the western portions of
the CWA overnight. Persistence in the pattern would suggest a third
night of convection north of the stationary front, and models also
hint at a similar scenario. Have inserted thunderstorm chances over
the western quarter of the CWA tonight. Up to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE
may reside over this area, but with marginal deep layer shear, only
a couple strong storms may be possible early in the lifespan of
storms.

Friday/Friday Night: Upper level ridging will shift into the central
CONUS. A long clockwise-curved sfc-H85 trajectory will advect deeper
moisture into the region, with surface dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s. Low clouds may persist through late morning before deeper
mixing commences, with a few scattered thunderstorms remaining north
of Interstate 70 before noon. Otherwise, no precipitation is
expected during the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon high
temperatures will be notably warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
with lows remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday: The upper pattern will feature a closed low developing
over southern California, with a well-defined vort max from the
remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast from the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a strong shortwave trough will
quickly dive towards the Great Lakes states and begin to amplify
into a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The model trends have
continued to look less impressive for widespread heavy rainfall for
the CWA, although chances of rain certainly look warranted. Models
have been slower with the arrival of Odile`s remains, and tend to
shift the track further south and keep it over the Southern Plains.
This places the CWA to the south of the strongest ascent from the
upper trough and to the northeast of the strongest influence of
Odile, greatly reducing confidence for widespread heavy rains. The
majority of the precipitation may be focused along the frontal
slope, which is expected to enter northern Missouri by Saturday
afternoon. To the south of the front, precipitation is more
uncertain until the front moves southward. With this in mind, have
increased temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Long advertised cold front to be working south through the area at
the start of the fcst period. This should allow scattered shwrs and
storms through early Sunday morning with dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week with the arrival of high pressure. A fairly cool airmass
should accompany this feature with some long range models
advertising highs in the upper 60s early next week. Beyond
this...west coast upper low to slowly track east into the Plains by
midweek...with shwr chances increasing across the western zones late
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps should begin to moderate during this
time as southerly flow returns in advance of aforementioned west
coast system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Conditions may become low end MVFR this afternoon but should still
remain below 2000 ft. But like the last few nights, IFR ceilings and
potentially visibilities will once again develop as the warm front
will remain to our south for much of the forecast. Towards the end of
the forecast, that front should lift northward through the area,
shifting winds to the south. But increasing low level moisture will
keep the ceilings from lifting until tomorrow afternoon. So have kept
IFR ceilings in the forecast from tonight through the end of this
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
949 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Similar to yesterday, but displaced westward about 100 miles,
convection continues to develop over east central KS. This is
spreading higher cloud cover over the southern portions of the
forecast area. At the lower levels, the surface front remains to the
southwest of the forecast area with easterly surface and low-level
winds. This combination should continue to yield low clouds and
modestly reduced visibilities through the afternoon. With the
anticipation that cloud cover with linger longer, or just not erode
at all, have lowered temperatures across the area by several degrees.
For now, highs look to be in the lower 70s, rather than the mid to
upper 70s as a result. If cloud cover continues to remain thick,
continued downward updates will be needed as highs may then only make
into the 60s.

For aviation interest, the more persistent lower cloud cover mean IFR
conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon with a very
good chance for IFR ceilings and visibilities again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today/Tonight: As of this morning, a line of thunderstorms stretch
from Salina KS to Joplin MO, with a gradual southern drift away from
the CWA. Only a slight chance of precipitation is expected for the
remainder of the morning hours over far southwest sections of the
forecast area, where an isolated shower or stratiform blowoff could
drift into the area. Otherwise, the focus has been on an expansive
area of low stratus developing over the area. In addition, areas of
fog have developed with many locations between 1 to 3 miles. The
increase in stratus along with the cirrus canopy from upstream
convection have seemingly helped temporarily mitigate widespread
dense fog from forming. There is also a slow advection of drier air
upon easterly winds, but the temperatures have cooled at nearly the
same rate. At this time, expect some areas to experience patchy
dense fog less than one-half mile prior to 14Z, especially in
low-lying areas, but uncertainty remains how much more widespread
dense fog will develop. Will continue to closely monitor dense fog
trends. Otherwise, low clouds may hold through at least early
afternoon, keeping temperatures initially slow to rise, eventually
reaching the lower to middle 70s by late afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the afternoon into the early evening. The
western portion of the stationary front to our southwest over SC KS
will begin to retreat northward tonight, with increasing warm air
advection and isentropic ascent focused over the western portions of
the CWA overnight. Persistence in the pattern would suggest a third
night of convection north of the stationary front, and models also
hint at a similar scenario. Have inserted thunderstorm chances over
the western quarter of the CWA tonight. Up to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE
may reside over this area, but with marginal deep layer shear, only
a couple strong storms may be possible early in the lifespan of
storms.

Friday/Friday Night: Upper level ridging will shift into the central
CONUS. A long clockwise-curved sfc-H85 trajectory will advect deeper
moisture into the region, with surface dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s. Low clouds may persist through late morning before deeper
mixing commences, with a few scattered thunderstorms remaining north
of Interstate 70 before noon. Otherwise, no precipitation is
expected during the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon high
temperatures will be notably warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
with lows remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday: The upper pattern will feature a closed low developing
over southern California, with a well-defined vort max from the
remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast from the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a strong shortwave trough will
quickly dive towards the Great Lakes states and begin to amplify
into a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The model trends have
continued to look less impressive for widespread heavy rainfall for
the CWA, although chances of rain certainly look warranted. Models
have been slower with the arrival of Odile`s remains, and tend to
shift the track further south and keep it over the Southern Plains.
This places the CWA to the south of the strongest ascent from the
upper trough and to the northeast of the strongest influence of
Odile, greatly reducing confidence for widespread heavy rains. The
majority of the precipitation may be focused along the frontal
slope, which is expected to enter northern Missouri by Saturday
afternoon. To the south of the front, precipitation is more
uncertain until the front moves southward. With this in mind, have
increased temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Long advertised cold front to be working south through the area at
the start of the fcst period. This should allow scattered shwrs and
storms through early Sunday morning with dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week with the arrival of high pressure. A fairly cool airmass
should accompany this feature with some long range models
advertising highs in the upper 60s early next week. Beyond
this...west coast upper low to slowly track east into the Plains by
midweek...with shwr chances increasing across the western zones late
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps should begin to moderate during this
time as southerly flow returns in advance of aforementioned west
coast system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Complex short-term forecast with a range of MVFR to LIFR conditions.
Expect IFR to LIFR ceilings, with occasional reduction in visibility
to under 2 miles, to persist through 14Z. A gradual improvement
should occur thereafter, but with still IFR stratus through midday.
A return to VFR is expected by the afternoon hours with some remnant
scattered stratus. Expect to see stratus fill back in later this
evening, with at least MVFR returning. Slight chances for convection
will exist near/west of terminals late tonight, but uncertainty
precludes mention in forecast at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
949 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Similar to yesterday, but displaced westward about 100 miles,
convection continues to develop over east central KS. This is
spreading higher cloud cover over the southern portions of the
forecast area. At the lower levels, the surface front remains to the
southwest of the forecast area with easterly surface and low-level
winds. This combination should continue to yield low clouds and
modestly reduced visibilities through the afternoon. With the
anticipation that cloud cover with linger longer, or just not erode
at all, have lowered temperatures across the area by several degrees.
For now, highs look to be in the lower 70s, rather than the mid to
upper 70s as a result. If cloud cover continues to remain thick,
continued downward updates will be needed as highs may then only make
into the 60s.

For aviation interest, the more persistent lower cloud cover mean IFR
conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon with a very
good chance for IFR ceilings and visibilities again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today/Tonight: As of this morning, a line of thunderstorms stretch
from Salina KS to Joplin MO, with a gradual southern drift away from
the CWA. Only a slight chance of precipitation is expected for the
remainder of the morning hours over far southwest sections of the
forecast area, where an isolated shower or stratiform blowoff could
drift into the area. Otherwise, the focus has been on an expansive
area of low stratus developing over the area. In addition, areas of
fog have developed with many locations between 1 to 3 miles. The
increase in stratus along with the cirrus canopy from upstream
convection have seemingly helped temporarily mitigate widespread
dense fog from forming. There is also a slow advection of drier air
upon easterly winds, but the temperatures have cooled at nearly the
same rate. At this time, expect some areas to experience patchy
dense fog less than one-half mile prior to 14Z, especially in
low-lying areas, but uncertainty remains how much more widespread
dense fog will develop. Will continue to closely monitor dense fog
trends. Otherwise, low clouds may hold through at least early
afternoon, keeping temperatures initially slow to rise, eventually
reaching the lower to middle 70s by late afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the afternoon into the early evening. The
western portion of the stationary front to our southwest over SC KS
will begin to retreat northward tonight, with increasing warm air
advection and isentropic ascent focused over the western portions of
the CWA overnight. Persistence in the pattern would suggest a third
night of convection north of the stationary front, and models also
hint at a similar scenario. Have inserted thunderstorm chances over
the western quarter of the CWA tonight. Up to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE
may reside over this area, but with marginal deep layer shear, only
a couple strong storms may be possible early in the lifespan of
storms.

Friday/Friday Night: Upper level ridging will shift into the central
CONUS. A long clockwise-curved sfc-H85 trajectory will advect deeper
moisture into the region, with surface dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s. Low clouds may persist through late morning before deeper
mixing commences, with a few scattered thunderstorms remaining north
of Interstate 70 before noon. Otherwise, no precipitation is
expected during the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon high
temperatures will be notably warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
with lows remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday: The upper pattern will feature a closed low developing
over southern California, with a well-defined vort max from the
remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast from the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a strong shortwave trough will
quickly dive towards the Great Lakes states and begin to amplify
into a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The model trends have
continued to look less impressive for widespread heavy rainfall for
the CWA, although chances of rain certainly look warranted. Models
have been slower with the arrival of Odile`s remains, and tend to
shift the track further south and keep it over the Southern Plains.
This places the CWA to the south of the strongest ascent from the
upper trough and to the northeast of the strongest influence of
Odile, greatly reducing confidence for widespread heavy rains. The
majority of the precipitation may be focused along the frontal
slope, which is expected to enter northern Missouri by Saturday
afternoon. To the south of the front, precipitation is more
uncertain until the front moves southward. With this in mind, have
increased temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Long advertised cold front to be working south through the area at
the start of the fcst period. This should allow scattered shwrs and
storms through early Sunday morning with dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week with the arrival of high pressure. A fairly cool airmass
should accompany this feature with some long range models
advertising highs in the upper 60s early next week. Beyond
this...west coast upper low to slowly track east into the Plains by
midweek...with shwr chances increasing across the western zones late
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps should begin to moderate during this
time as southerly flow returns in advance of aforementioned west
coast system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Complex short-term forecast with a range of MVFR to LIFR conditions.
Expect IFR to LIFR ceilings, with occasional reduction in visibility
to under 2 miles, to persist through 14Z. A gradual improvement
should occur thereafter, but with still IFR stratus through midday.
A return to VFR is expected by the afternoon hours with some remnant
scattered stratus. Expect to see stratus fill back in later this
evening, with at least MVFR returning. Slight chances for convection
will exist near/west of terminals late tonight, but uncertainty
precludes mention in forecast at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today/Tonight: As of this morning, a line of thunderstorms stretch
from Salina KS to Joplin MO, with a gradual southern drift away from
the CWA. Only a slight chance of precipitation is expected for the
remainder of the morning hours over far southwest sections of the
forecast area, where an isolated shower or stratiform blowoff could
drift into the area. Otherwise, the focus has been on an expansive
area of low stratus developing over the area. In addition, areas of
fog have developed with many locations between 1 to 3 miles. The
increase in stratus along with the cirrus canopy from upstream
convection have seemingly helped temporarily mitigate widespread
dense fog from forming. There is also a slow advection of drier air
upon easterly winds, but the temperatures have cooled at nearly the
same rate. At this time, expect some areas to experience patchy
dense fog less than one-half mile prior to 14Z, especially in
low-lying areas, but uncertainty remains how much more widespread
dense fog will develop. Will continue to closely monitor dense fog
trends. Otherwise, low clouds may hold through at least early
afternoon, keeping temperatures initially slow to rise, eventually
reaching the lower to middle 70s by late afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the afternoon into the early evening. The
western portion of the stationary front to our southwest over SC KS
will begin to retreat northward tonight, with increasing warm air
advection and isentropic ascent focused over the western portions of
the CWA overnight. Persistence in the pattern would suggest a third
night of convection north of the stationary front, and models also
hint at a similar scenario. Have inserted thunderstorm chances over
the western quarter of the CWA tonight. Up to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE
may reside over this area, but with marginal deep layer shear, only
a couple strong storms may be possible early in the lifespan of
storms.

Friday/Friday Night: Upper level ridging will shift into the central
CONUS. A long clockwise-curved sfc-H85 trajectory will advect deeper
moisture into the region, with surface dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s. Low clouds may persist through late morning before deeper
mixing commences, with a few scattered thunderstorms remaining north
of Interstate 70 before noon. Otherwise, no precipitation is
expected during the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon high
temperatures will be notably warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
with lows remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday: The upper pattern will feature a closed low developing
over southern California, with a well-defined vort max from the
remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast from the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a strong shortwave trough will
quickly dive towards the Great Lakes states and begin to amplify
into a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The model trends have
continued to look less impressive for widespread heavy rainfall for
the CWA, although chances of rain certainly look warranted. Models
have been slower with the arrival of Odile`s remains, and tend to
shift the track further south and keep it over the Southern Plains.
This places the CWA to the south of the strongest ascent from the
upper trough and to the northeast of the strongest influence of
Odile, greatly reducing confidence for widespread heavy rains. The
majority of the precipitation may be focused along the frontal
slope, which is expected to enter northern Missouri by Saturday
afternoon. To the south of the front, precipitation is more
uncertain until the front moves southward. With this in mind, have
increased temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Long advertised cold front to be working south through the area at
the start of the fcst period. This should allow scattered shwrs and
storms through early Sunday morning with dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week with the arrival of high pressure. A fairly cool airmass
should accompany this feature with some long range models
advertising highs in the upper 60s early next week. Beyond
this...west coast upper low to slowly track east into the Plains by
midweek...with shwr chances increasing across the western zones late
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps should begin to moderate during this
time as southerly flow returns in advance of aforementioned west
coast system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Complex short-term forecast with a range of MVFR to LIFR conditions.
Expect IFR to LIFR ceilings, with occasional reduction in visibility
to under 2 miles, to persist through 14Z. A gradual improvement
should occur thereafter, but with still IFR stratus through midday.
A return to VFR is expected by the afternoon hours with some remnant
scattered stratus. Expect to see stratus fill back in later this
evening, with at least MVFR returning. Slight chances for convection
will exist near/west of terminals late tonight, but uncertainty
precludes mention in forecast at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today/Tonight: As of this morning, a line of thunderstorms stretch
from Salina KS to Joplin MO, with a gradual southern drift away from
the CWA. Only a slight chance of precipitation is expected for the
remainder of the morning hours over far southwest sections of the
forecast area, where an isolated shower or stratiform blowoff could
drift into the area. Otherwise, the focus has been on an expansive
area of low stratus developing over the area. In addition, areas of
fog have developed with many locations between 1 to 3 miles. The
increase in stratus along with the cirrus canopy from upstream
convection have seemingly helped temporarily mitigate widespread
dense fog from forming. There is also a slow advection of drier air
upon easterly winds, but the temperatures have cooled at nearly the
same rate. At this time, expect some areas to experience patchy
dense fog less than one-half mile prior to 14Z, especially in
low-lying areas, but uncertainty remains how much more widespread
dense fog will develop. Will continue to closely monitor dense fog
trends. Otherwise, low clouds may hold through at least early
afternoon, keeping temperatures initially slow to rise, eventually
reaching the lower to middle 70s by late afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the afternoon into the early evening. The
western portion of the stationary front to our southwest over SC KS
will begin to retreat northward tonight, with increasing warm air
advection and isentropic ascent focused over the western portions of
the CWA overnight. Persistence in the pattern would suggest a third
night of convection north of the stationary front, and models also
hint at a similar scenario. Have inserted thunderstorm chances over
the western quarter of the CWA tonight. Up to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE
may reside over this area, but with marginal deep layer shear, only
a couple strong storms may be possible early in the lifespan of
storms.

Friday/Friday Night: Upper level ridging will shift into the central
CONUS. A long clockwise-curved sfc-H85 trajectory will advect deeper
moisture into the region, with surface dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s. Low clouds may persist through late morning before deeper
mixing commences, with a few scattered thunderstorms remaining north
of Interstate 70 before noon. Otherwise, no precipitation is
expected during the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon high
temperatures will be notably warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
with lows remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday: The upper pattern will feature a closed low developing
over southern California, with a well-defined vort max from the
remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast from the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a strong shortwave trough will
quickly dive towards the Great Lakes states and begin to amplify
into a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The model trends have
continued to look less impressive for widespread heavy rainfall for
the CWA, although chances of rain certainly look warranted. Models
have been slower with the arrival of Odile`s remains, and tend to
shift the track further south and keep it over the Southern Plains.
This places the CWA to the south of the strongest ascent from the
upper trough and to the northeast of the strongest influence of
Odile, greatly reducing confidence for widespread heavy rains. The
majority of the precipitation may be focused along the frontal
slope, which is expected to enter northern Missouri by Saturday
afternoon. To the south of the front, precipitation is more
uncertain until the front moves southward. With this in mind, have
increased temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Long advertised cold front to be working south through the area at
the start of the fcst period. This should allow scattered shwrs and
storms through early Sunday morning with dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week with the arrival of high pressure. A fairly cool airmass
should accompany this feature with some long range models
advertising highs in the upper 60s early next week. Beyond
this...west coast upper low to slowly track east into the Plains by
midweek...with shwr chances increasing across the western zones late
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps should begin to moderate during this
time as southerly flow returns in advance of aforementioned west
coast system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Complex short-term forecast with a range of MVFR to LIFR conditions.
Expect IFR to LIFR ceilings, with occasional reduction in visibility
to under 2 miles, to persist through 14Z. A gradual improvement
should occur thereafter, but with still IFR stratus through midday.
A return to VFR is expected by the afternoon hours with some remnant
scattered stratus. Expect to see stratus fill back in later this
evening, with at least MVFR returning. Slight chances for convection
will exist near/west of terminals late tonight, but uncertainty
precludes mention in forecast at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 180833
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today/Tonight: As of this morning, a line of thunderstorms stretch
from Salina KS to Joplin MO, with a gradual southern drift away from
the CWA. Only a slight chance of precipitation is expected for the
remainder of the morning hours over far southwest sections of the
forecast area, where an isolated shower or stratiform blowoff could
drift into the area. Otherwise, the focus has been on an expansive
area of low stratus developing over the area. In addition, areas of
fog have developed with many locations between 1 to 3 miles. The
increase in stratus along with the cirrus canopy from upstream
convection have seemingly helped temporarily mitigate widespread
dense fog from forming. There is also a slow advection of drier air
upon easterly winds, but the temperatures have cooled at nearly the
same rate. At this time, expect some areas to experience patchy
dense fog less than one-half mile prior to 14Z, especially in
low-lying areas, but uncertainty remains how much more widespread
dense fog will develop. Will continue to closely monitor dense fog
trends. Otherwise, low clouds may hold through at least early
afternoon, keeping temperatures initially slow to rise, eventually
reaching the lower to middle 70s by late afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the afternoon into the early evening. The
western portion of the stationary front to our southwest over SC KS
will begin to retreat northward tonight, with increasing warm air
advection and isentropic ascent focused over the western portions of
the CWA overnight. Persistence in the pattern would suggest a third
night of convection north of the stationary front, and models also
hint at a similar scenario. Have inserted thunderstorm chances over
the western quarter of the CWA tonight. Up to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE
may reside over this area, but with marginal deep layer shear, only
a couple strong storms may be possible early in the lifespan of
storms.

Friday/Friday Night: Upper level ridging will shift into the central
CONUS. A long clockwise-curved sfc-H85 trajectory will advect deeper
moisture into the region, with surface dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s. Low clouds may persist through late morning before deeper
mixing commences, with a few scattered thunderstorms remaining north
of Interstate 70 before noon. Otherwise, no precipitation is
expected during the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon high
temperatures will be notably warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
with lows remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday: The upper pattern will feature a closed low developing
over southern California, with a well-defined vort max from the
remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast from the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a strong shortwave trough will
quickly dive towards the Great Lakes states and begin to amplify
into a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The model trends have
continued to look less impressive for widespread heavy rainfall for
the CWA, although chances of rain certainly look warranted. Models
have been slower with the arrival of Odile`s remains, and tend to
shift the track further south and keep it over the Southern Plains.
This places the CWA to the south of the strongest ascent from the
upper trough and to the northeast of the strongest influence of
Odile, greatly reducing confidence for widespread heavy rains. The
majority of the precipitation may be focused along the frontal
slope, which is expected to enter northern Missouri by Saturday
afternoon. To the south of the front, precipitation is more
uncertain until the front moves southward. With this in mind, have
increased temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Long advertised cold front to be working south through the area at
the start of the fcst period. This should allow scattered shwrs and
storms through early Sunday morning with dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week with the arrival of high pressure. A fairly cool airmass
should accompany this feature with some long range models
advertising highs in the upper 60s early next week. Beyond
this...west coast upper low to slowly track east into the Plains by
midweek...with shwr chances increasing across the western zones late
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps should begin to moderate during this
time as southerly flow returns in advance of aforementioned west
coast system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Light easterly winds advecting and expanding LIFR cigs westward over
all but northern MO but even those areas will see IFR/LIFR cigs.
IFR/MVFR fog also expected over the region which will lift by mid
morning. Some patchy locally dense fog should lift to LIFR/IFR
category once the stratus moves in. Next question is how soon will
the low clouds scatter out. Will continue previous thinking and
scatter out for afternoon.

Band of scattered elevated convection from northern KS into southwest
MO will persist for much of the night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 180519
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Have gone dry over all but the far southwestern CWA to align with
ongoing convection just south of the CWA and upstream accas/elevated
convection approaching. Have also added fog over the CWA after
midnight. Clouds have cleared out across much of the CWA and setting
up for good radiational cooling with very light winds despite
advecting in drier air from the east. Fog has started to form just
east of Kansas City. Latest SREF visibility prog and UPS fog output
also suggest potential for dense fog forming. Will monitor visibility
trends as there is just as much of a chance for low stratus to form
vs dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

For much of the CWA the low clouds have been hanging tough with slow
erosion on the northern edge. This has resulted in highly variable
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Further west in
KS lies a warm front with upper 80s to low 90s and very humid air.
That airmass will work in here on Friday, but until then we will see
cloudy skies again tonight with a small chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance have drier solutions for tonight
compared to earlier runs as forcing and instability fields are rather
meager. Based on the data I lowered pops just a bit for tonight
having only the western third of the CWA with slight chance to chance
pops.

For tomorrow the clouds should slowly mix giving way to hopefully
more sunshine compared to today with temperatures in the middle 70s
along with light southeasterly winds. There is only a slight chance
for showers/thunderstorms for mainly the western zones closest to
the warm front. Tomorrow night should be dry leading into Friday.
On Friday the warm front rapidly lifts north in response to a
developing upper level trough.  Once the front mixes north, very
warm and humid air returns to the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A positively tilted trough will move through the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Saturday, pushing a cold front into the area.
Models are a little slower with the front, so have delayed the start
of the precipitation in northwestern Missouri until during the
daytime period. Also, with the strongest dynamics associated with
the trough well north of the area, there will be little upper-level
support to aid the front. Surface and low level winds look to be
strongly veered as well and instability is modest at best. So the
potential for widespread rainfall loos to have diminished some,
especially the farther south one is away from the upper-level support
of the upper trough. So, have lowered PoPs for the day Saturday,
though much of the area remains with about 40 to 50 percent chance.
With veered winds and the upper trough moving away from its trailing
front, the front may be somewhat slow to clear the entire forecast
area, so there will remain a chance for showers and storms well into
the overnight hours. Overall, the threat of severe weather looks
rather low as instability is modest and shear is weak, in addition to
there being limited forcing.

Once that front does clear the area, high pressure will settle into
the region bringing cooler and drier weather to the region through
the early part of next week. By the middle of the week, as that high
shifts to the east, winds will become more southerly  ahead of the
next upper trough. This may bring another chance for storms to
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Light easterly winds advecting and expanding LIFR cigs westward over
all but northern MO but even those areas will see IFR/LIFR cigs.
IFR/MVFR fog also expected over the region which will lift by mid
morning. Some patchy locally dense fog should lift to LIFR/IFR
category once the stratus moves in. Next question is how soon will
the low clouds scatter out. Will continue previous thinking and
scatter out for afternoon.

Band of scattered elevated convection from northern KS into southwest
MO will persist for much of the night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 180519
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Have gone dry over all but the far southwestern CWA to align with
ongoing convection just south of the CWA and upstream accas/elevated
convection approaching. Have also added fog over the CWA after
midnight. Clouds have cleared out across much of the CWA and setting
up for good radiational cooling with very light winds despite
advecting in drier air from the east. Fog has started to form just
east of Kansas City. Latest SREF visibility prog and UPS fog output
also suggest potential for dense fog forming. Will monitor visibility
trends as there is just as much of a chance for low stratus to form
vs dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

For much of the CWA the low clouds have been hanging tough with slow
erosion on the northern edge. This has resulted in highly variable
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Further west in
KS lies a warm front with upper 80s to low 90s and very humid air.
That airmass will work in here on Friday, but until then we will see
cloudy skies again tonight with a small chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance have drier solutions for tonight
compared to earlier runs as forcing and instability fields are rather
meager. Based on the data I lowered pops just a bit for tonight
having only the western third of the CWA with slight chance to chance
pops.

For tomorrow the clouds should slowly mix giving way to hopefully
more sunshine compared to today with temperatures in the middle 70s
along with light southeasterly winds. There is only a slight chance
for showers/thunderstorms for mainly the western zones closest to
the warm front. Tomorrow night should be dry leading into Friday.
On Friday the warm front rapidly lifts north in response to a
developing upper level trough.  Once the front mixes north, very
warm and humid air returns to the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A positively tilted trough will move through the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Saturday, pushing a cold front into the area.
Models are a little slower with the front, so have delayed the start
of the precipitation in northwestern Missouri until during the
daytime period. Also, with the strongest dynamics associated with
the trough well north of the area, there will be little upper-level
support to aid the front. Surface and low level winds look to be
strongly veered as well and instability is modest at best. So the
potential for widespread rainfall loos to have diminished some,
especially the farther south one is away from the upper-level support
of the upper trough. So, have lowered PoPs for the day Saturday,
though much of the area remains with about 40 to 50 percent chance.
With veered winds and the upper trough moving away from its trailing
front, the front may be somewhat slow to clear the entire forecast
area, so there will remain a chance for showers and storms well into
the overnight hours. Overall, the threat of severe weather looks
rather low as instability is modest and shear is weak, in addition to
there being limited forcing.

Once that front does clear the area, high pressure will settle into
the region bringing cooler and drier weather to the region through
the early part of next week. By the middle of the week, as that high
shifts to the east, winds will become more southerly  ahead of the
next upper trough. This may bring another chance for storms to
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Light easterly winds advecting and expanding LIFR cigs westward over
all but northern MO but even those areas will see IFR/LIFR cigs.
IFR/MVFR fog also expected over the region which will lift by mid
morning. Some patchy locally dense fog should lift to LIFR/IFR
category once the stratus moves in. Next question is how soon will
the low clouds scatter out. Will continue previous thinking and
scatter out for afternoon.

Band of scattered elevated convection from northern KS into southwest
MO will persist for much of the night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 180159
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
859 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Have gone dry over all but the far southwestern CWA to align with
ongoing convection just south of the CWA and upstream accas/eleated
convection approaching. Have also added fog over the CWA afer
midnight. Clouds have cleared out across much of the CWA and setting
up for good radiational cooling with very light winds despite
advecting in drier air from the east. Fog has started to form just
east of Kansas City. Latest SREF visibility prog and UPS fog output
also suggest potential for dense fog forming. Will monitor visibility
trends as there is just as much of a chance for low stratus to form
vs dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

For much of the CWA the low clouds have been hanging tough with slow
erosion on the northern edge. This has resulted in highly variable
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Further west in
KS lies a warm front with upper 80s to low 90s and very humid air.
That airmass will work in here on Friday, but until then we will see
cloudy skies again tonight with a small chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance have drier solutions for tonight
compared to earlier runs as forcing and instability fields are rather
meager. Based on the data I lowered pops just a bit for tonight
having only the western third of the CWA with slight chance to chance
pops.

For tomorrow the clouds should slowly mix giving way to hopefully
more sunshine compared to today with temperatures in the middle 70s
along with light southeasterly winds. There is only a slight chance
for showers/thunderstorms for mainly the western zones closest to
the warm front. Tomorrow night should be dry leading into Friday.
On Friday the warm front rapidly lifts north in response to a
developing upper level trough.  Once the front mixes north, very
warm and humid air returns to the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A positively tilted trough will move through the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Saturday, pushing a cold front into the area.
Models are a little slower with the front, so have delayed the start
of the precipitation in northwestern Missouri until during the
daytime period. Also, with the strongest dynamics associated with
the trough well north of the area, there will be little upper-level
support to aid the front. Surface and low level winds look to be
strongly veered as well and instability is modest at best. So the
potential for widespread rainfall loos to have diminished some,
especially the farther south one is away from the upper-level support
of the upper trough. So, have lowered PoPs for the day Saturday,
though much of the area remains with about 40 to 50 percent chance.
With veered winds and the upper trough moving away from its trailing
front, the front may be somewhat slow to clear the entire forecast
area, so there will remain a chance for showers and storms well into
the overnight hours. Overall, the threat of severe weather looks
rather low as instability is modest and shear is weak, in addition to
there being limited forcing.

Once that front does clear the area, high pressure will settle into
the region bringing cooler and drier weather to the region through
the early part of next week. By the middle of the week, as that high
shifts to the east, winds will become more southerly  ahead of the
next upper trough. This may bring another chance for storms to
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Fog/stratus concerns for tonight since low clouds have cleared out of
a good portion of northern MO down to the MO River. Light and moist
easterly flow under relatively clear skies and time of year increase
the potential for IFR/LIFR cigs and visibilities...especially for
KSTJ where local effects take precedence. Fog and IFR/MVFR stratus
will likely remain through the morning hours before scattering out
for the afternoon.

Any convection concerns should stay southwest of the terminals but
could reach into west central MO south of KMKC after midnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 180159
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
859 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Have gone dry over all but the far southwestern CWA to align with
ongoing convection just south of the CWA and upstream accas/eleated
convection approaching. Have also added fog over the CWA afer
midnight. Clouds have cleared out across much of the CWA and setting
up for good radiational cooling with very light winds despite
advecting in drier air from the east. Fog has started to form just
east of Kansas City. Latest SREF visibility prog and UPS fog output
also suggest potential for dense fog forming. Will monitor visibility
trends as there is just as much of a chance for low stratus to form
vs dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

For much of the CWA the low clouds have been hanging tough with slow
erosion on the northern edge. This has resulted in highly variable
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Further west in
KS lies a warm front with upper 80s to low 90s and very humid air.
That airmass will work in here on Friday, but until then we will see
cloudy skies again tonight with a small chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance have drier solutions for tonight
compared to earlier runs as forcing and instability fields are rather
meager. Based on the data I lowered pops just a bit for tonight
having only the western third of the CWA with slight chance to chance
pops.

For tomorrow the clouds should slowly mix giving way to hopefully
more sunshine compared to today with temperatures in the middle 70s
along with light southeasterly winds. There is only a slight chance
for showers/thunderstorms for mainly the western zones closest to
the warm front. Tomorrow night should be dry leading into Friday.
On Friday the warm front rapidly lifts north in response to a
developing upper level trough.  Once the front mixes north, very
warm and humid air returns to the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A positively tilted trough will move through the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Saturday, pushing a cold front into the area.
Models are a little slower with the front, so have delayed the start
of the precipitation in northwestern Missouri until during the
daytime period. Also, with the strongest dynamics associated with
the trough well north of the area, there will be little upper-level
support to aid the front. Surface and low level winds look to be
strongly veered as well and instability is modest at best. So the
potential for widespread rainfall loos to have diminished some,
especially the farther south one is away from the upper-level support
of the upper trough. So, have lowered PoPs for the day Saturday,
though much of the area remains with about 40 to 50 percent chance.
With veered winds and the upper trough moving away from its trailing
front, the front may be somewhat slow to clear the entire forecast
area, so there will remain a chance for showers and storms well into
the overnight hours. Overall, the threat of severe weather looks
rather low as instability is modest and shear is weak, in addition to
there being limited forcing.

Once that front does clear the area, high pressure will settle into
the region bringing cooler and drier weather to the region through
the early part of next week. By the middle of the week, as that high
shifts to the east, winds will become more southerly  ahead of the
next upper trough. This may bring another chance for storms to
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Fog/stratus concerns for tonight since low clouds have cleared out of
a good portion of northern MO down to the MO River. Light and moist
easterly flow under relatively clear skies and time of year increase
the potential for IFR/LIFR cigs and visibilities...especially for
KSTJ where local effects take precedence. Fog and IFR/MVFR stratus
will likely remain through the morning hours before scattering out
for the afternoon.

Any convection concerns should stay southwest of the terminals but
could reach into west central MO south of KMKC after midnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 172346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
646 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

For much of the CWA the low clouds have been hanging tough with slow
erosion on the northern edge. This has resulted in highly variable
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Further west in
KS lies a warm front with upper 80s to low 90s and very humid air.
That airmass will work in here on Friday, but until then we will see
cloudy skies again tonight with a small chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance have drier solutions for tonight
compared to earlier runs as forcing and instability fields are rather
meager. Based on the data I lowered pops just a bit for tonight
having only the western third of the CWA with slight chance to chance
pops.

For tomorrow the clouds should slowly mix giving way to hopefully
more sunshine compared to today with temperatures in the middle 70s
along with light southeasterly winds. There is only a slight chance
for showers/thunderstorms for mainly the western zones closest to
the warm front. Tomorrow night should be dry leading into Friday.
On Friday the warm front rapidly lifts north in response to a
developing upper level trough.  Once the front mixes north, very
warm and humid air returns to the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A positively tilted trough will move through the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Saturday, pushing a cold front into the area.
Models are a little slower with the front, so have delayed the start
of the precipitation in northwestern Missouri until during the
daytime period. Also, with the strongest dynamics associated with
the trough well north of the area, there will be little upper-level
support to aid the front. Surface and low level winds look to be
strongly veered as well and instability is modest at best. So the
potential for widespread rainfall loos to have diminished some,
especially the farther south one is away from the upper-level support
of the upper trough. So, have lowered PoPs for the day Saturday,
though much of the area remains with about 40 to 50 percent chance.
With veered winds and the upper trough moving away from its trailing
front, the front may be somewhat slow to clear the entire forecast
area, so there will remain a chance for showers and storms well into
the overnight hours. Overall, the threat of severe weather looks
rather low as instability is modest and shear is weak, in addition to
there being limited forcing.

Once that front does clear the area, high pressure will settle into
the region bringing cooler and drier weather to the region through
the early part of next week. By the middle of the week, as that high
shifts to the east, winds will become more southerly  ahead of the
next upper trough. This may bring another chance for storms to
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Fog/stratus concerns for tonight since low clouds have cleared out of
a good portion of northern MO down to the MO River. Light and moist
easterly flow under relatively clear skies and time of year increase
the potential for IFR/LIFR cigs and visibilities...especially for
KSTJ where local effects take precedence. Fog and IFR/MVFR stratus
will likely remain through the morning hours before scattering out
for the afternoon.

Any convection concerns should stay southwest of the terminals but
could reach into west central MO south of KMKC after midnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 172346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
646 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

For much of the CWA the low clouds have been hanging tough with slow
erosion on the northern edge. This has resulted in highly variable
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Further west in
KS lies a warm front with upper 80s to low 90s and very humid air.
That airmass will work in here on Friday, but until then we will see
cloudy skies again tonight with a small chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance have drier solutions for tonight
compared to earlier runs as forcing and instability fields are rather
meager. Based on the data I lowered pops just a bit for tonight
having only the western third of the CWA with slight chance to chance
pops.

For tomorrow the clouds should slowly mix giving way to hopefully
more sunshine compared to today with temperatures in the middle 70s
along with light southeasterly winds. There is only a slight chance
for showers/thunderstorms for mainly the western zones closest to
the warm front. Tomorrow night should be dry leading into Friday.
On Friday the warm front rapidly lifts north in response to a
developing upper level trough.  Once the front mixes north, very
warm and humid air returns to the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A positively tilted trough will move through the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Saturday, pushing a cold front into the area.
Models are a little slower with the front, so have delayed the start
of the precipitation in northwestern Missouri until during the
daytime period. Also, with the strongest dynamics associated with
the trough well north of the area, there will be little upper-level
support to aid the front. Surface and low level winds look to be
strongly veered as well and instability is modest at best. So the
potential for widespread rainfall loos to have diminished some,
especially the farther south one is away from the upper-level support
of the upper trough. So, have lowered PoPs for the day Saturday,
though much of the area remains with about 40 to 50 percent chance.
With veered winds and the upper trough moving away from its trailing
front, the front may be somewhat slow to clear the entire forecast
area, so there will remain a chance for showers and storms well into
the overnight hours. Overall, the threat of severe weather looks
rather low as instability is modest and shear is weak, in addition to
there being limited forcing.

Once that front does clear the area, high pressure will settle into
the region bringing cooler and drier weather to the region through
the early part of next week. By the middle of the week, as that high
shifts to the east, winds will become more southerly  ahead of the
next upper trough. This may bring another chance for storms to
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Fog/stratus concerns for tonight since low clouds have cleared out of
a good portion of northern MO down to the MO River. Light and moist
easterly flow under relatively clear skies and time of year increase
the potential for IFR/LIFR cigs and visibilities...especially for
KSTJ where local effects take precedence. Fog and IFR/MVFR stratus
will likely remain through the morning hours before scattering out
for the afternoon.

Any convection concerns should stay southwest of the terminals but
could reach into west central MO south of KMKC after midnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 172011
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

For much of the CWA the low clouds have been hanging tough with slow
erosion on the northern edge. This has resulted in highly variable
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Further west in
KS lies a warm front with upper 80s to low 90s and very humid air.
That airmass will work in here on Friday, but until then we will see
cloudy skies again tonight with a small chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance have drier solutions for tonight
compared to earlier runs as forcing and instability fields are rather
meager. Based on the data I lowered pops just a bit for tonight
having only the western third of the CWA with slight chance to chance
pops.

For tomorrow the clouds should slowly mix giving way to hopefully
more sunshine compared to today with temperatures in the middle 70s
along with light southeasterly winds. There is only a slight chance
for showers/thunderstorms for mainly the western zones closest to
the warm front. Tomorrow night should be dry leading into Friday.
On Friday the warm front rapidly lifts north in response to a
developing upper level trough.  Once the front mixes north, very
warm and humid air returns to the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A positively tilted trough will move through the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Saturday, pushing a cold front into the area.
Models are a little slower with the front, so have delayed the start
of the precipitation in northwestern Missouri until during the
daytime period. Also, with the strongest dynamics associated with
the trough well north of the area, there will be little upper-level
support to aid the front. Surface and low level winds look to be
strongly veered as well and instability is modest at best. So the
potential for widespread rainfall loos to have diminished some,
especially the farther south one is away from the upper-level support
of the upper trough. So, have lowered PoPs for the day Saturday,
though much of the area remains with about 40 to 50 percent chance.
With veered winds and the upper trough moving away from its trailing
front, the front may be somewhat slow to clear the entire forecast
area, so there will remain a chance for showers and storms well into
the overnight hours. Overall, the threat of severe weather looks
rather low as instability is modest and shear is weak, in addition to
there being limited forcing.

Once that front does clear the area, high pressure will settle into
the region bringing cooler and drier weather to the region through
the early part of next week. By the middle of the week, as that high
shifts to the east, winds will become more southerly  ahead of the
next upper trough. This may bring another chance for storms to
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low cloud deck and reduced visibilities are expected to persist
through much of the day. The exception should be STJ where CIGS
should improve to MVFR by mid-afternoon as visible satellite trends
show clearing close to the terminal and working toward the terminal.
Otherwise apart from a brief period of MVFR CIGS late this afternoon
at MCI and MKC all model guidance indicates IFR to LIFR CIGS and VIS
to redevelop overnight. After sunrise tomorrow CIGS and VIS should
slowly improve to MVFR. As for precip chances, at this time kept the
terminals dry as latest model data has the better chances for
SHRA/TSRA west and south of the terminals overnight tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KEAX 171735
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Out of the gate this morning...initial concerns remain focused on
early morning convection and prospects for additional shwrs/storms
later today as a frontal boundary slowly approaches the area. Fcst
models in recent days have been hinting at decent isentropic ascent
along the 305 and 310K theta surfaces as a 35 kt low-level jet
ascends the boundary. One thing that does appear a little different
with today/s models is the indication that upper jet dynamics will be
a little more conducive to support modest divergence aloft. This
combined with the aforementioned isentropic ascent along with some
weak mid-level vorticity advection should keep the threat for
scattered shwrs/storms going through at least early afternoon. With
MUCAPE values exceeding 1000 Joules this morning...along with 0-6 km
bulk shear values remaining near 40 kts...modestly sheared updrafts
will be capable of small hail with today/s convection. By mid to late
afternoon...upper shortwave should be exiting to the southeast which
should allow for a gradual decrease in precip from north to south as
the day progresses. Temps a little tricky today as cloud cover and
precip may hinder optimal heating. In any event...decent warm air
advection as referenced above...combined with warming 850 temps
should allow mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s
possible from the KC metro west into eastern KS.

For tonight...main frontal boundary will again be suppressed to the
south and west as strong sfc high pressure builds into the upper
Great Lakes. As this occurs...models suggest an influx of drier air
as sfc ridging extends all the way west to the lwr Missouri Vly.
Still cannot rule out some light shwr development across western
portions of the fcst area thanks for frontogenesis circulations...but
overall confidence is waning given current model trends. In any
event...will hold on to low chc pops across the far south and
southwest...while maintaining dry conditions for our eastern zones.
Overnight lows have the potential of varying widely...with low 50s
possible across the far northeast in drier and cooler air...while low
60s are likely to the west in closer proximity to the frontal
boundary.

With frontal boundary shunted to the west on Thursday...expect
slightly cooler temps to those experienced today. Overall prospects
for rain look low as front remains west and thus have maintained a
dry fcst for now. By Thursday night...models suggest the possibility
of developing shwrs as a weak disturbances embedded in the polar jet
passes well to our north. After careful inspection of several model
fields...having a hard time finding a suitable triggering mechanism
to get convection going. As a result...have a dry fcst was maintained
which agrees well with surrounding offices.

Large scale pattern shift to get underway on Friday as upper flow
begins to back to the southwest in advance of a large scale upper low
developing over central/southern California. The end result will be
for building heights downstream across our region with returning
southerly flow allowing 850 temps to warm into the upper teens. This
should allow temps to warm well into the lower to middle 80s for
daytime highs...with a warm night then in store through Saturday
morning. Both Friday and Friday night look to remain dry with precip
chances increasing beyond this as remnant Hurricane Odile circulation
approaches. More details below.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The potentially active weekend weather continues to be of focus for
the extended period. The upper pattern should feature a closed low
developing over southern California, with a well-defined vort max
from the remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast
from the Desert Southwest into central Missouri. To the north, a
strong shortwave trough will quickly dive towards the Great Lakes
states and begin to amplify into a large trough over the eastern
CONUS. Models deviate some to the speed of these features,
especially the Euro that is approximately 6-12 hours slower with the
arrival of remnants of Odile and the associated vertical
ascent/tropospheric moistening. The lack of consistent timing places
additional uncertainty to the forecast, but the overall signal still
suggests many areas in the CWA should receive rainfall Saturday into
Saturday night. The overall large scale ascent has trended a little
weaker than earlier model runs, perhaps in part to a slower westward
amplification to the approaching upper trough, and likewise models
have gradually lowered QPF amounts. Went with a forecast blend, not
ready to fully buy into any one solution, and considering the ample
moisture projected to advect into the area. While the heaviest
precipitation may fall to the southwest of the CWA, an average of
one-half inch of rainfall still appears possible prior to a cold
front moving through the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday.
Upon the frontal passage, drier air will filter into the region for
the remainder of Sunday into Monday, yielding mostly sunny skies,
northerly winds, and a dry forecast. With the large upper trough
slow to move east, relatively tranquil conditions are anticipated
through midweek as the western periphery of surface high pressure
remains in control.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low cloud deck and reduced visibilities are expected to persist
through much of the day. The exception should be STJ where CIGS
should improve to MVFR by mid-afternoon as visible satellite trends
show clearing close to the terminal and working toward the terminal.
Otherwise apart from a brief period of MVFR CIGS late this afternoon
at MCI and MKC all model guidance indicates IFR to LIFR CIGS and VIS
to redevelop overnight. After sunrise tomorrow CIGS and VIS should
slowly improve to MVFR. As for precip chances, at this time kept the
terminals dry as latest model data has the better chances for
SHRA/TSRA west and south of the terminals overnight tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KEAX 171147
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
647 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Out of the gate this morning...initial concerns remain focused on
early morning convection and prospects for additional shwrs/storms
later today as a frontal boundary slowly approaches the area. Fcst
models in recent days have been hinting at decent isentropic ascent
along the 305 and 310K theta surfaces as a 35 kt low-level jet
ascends the boundary. One thing that does appear a little different
with today/s models is the indication that upper jet dynamics will be
a little more conducive to support modest divergence aloft. This
combined with the aforementioned isentropic ascent along with some
weak mid-level vorticity advection should keep the threat for
scattered shwrs/storms going through at least early afternoon. With
MUCAPE values exceeding 1000 Joules this morning...along with 0-6 km
bulk shear values remaining near 40 kts...modestly sheared updrafts
will be capable of small hail with today/s convection. By mid to late
afternoon...upper shortwave should be exiting to the southeast which
should allow for a gradual decrease in precip from north to south as
the day progresses. Temps a little tricky today as cloud cover and
precip may hinder optimal heating. In any event...decent warm air
advection as referenced above...combined with warming 850 temps
should allow mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s
possible from the KC metro west into eastern KS.

For tonight...main frontal boundary will again be suppressed to the
south and west as strong sfc high pressure builds into the upper
Great Lakes. As this occurs...models suggest an influx of drier air
as sfc ridging extends all the way west to the lwr Missouri Vly.
Still cannot rule out some light shwr development across western
portions of the fcst area thanks for frontogenesis circulations...but
overall confidence is waning given current model trends. In any
event...will hold on to low chc pops across the far south and
southwest...while maintaining dry conditions for our eastern zones.
Overnight lows have the potential of varying widely...with low 50s
possible across the far northeast in drier and cooler air...while low
60s are likely to the west in closer proximity to the frontal
boundary.

With frontal boundary shunted to the west on Thursday...expect
slightly cooler temps to those experienced today. Overall prospects
for rain look low as front remains west and thus have maintained a
dry fcst for now. By Thursday night...models suggest the possibility
of developing shwrs as a weak disturbances embedded in the polar jet
passes well to our north. After careful inspection of several model
fields...having a hard time finding a suitable triggering mechanism
to get convection going. As a result...have a dry fcst was maintained
which agrees well with surrounding offices.

Large scale pattern shift to get underway on Friday as upper flow
begins to back to the southwest in advance of a large scale upper low
developing over central/southern California. The end result will be
for building heights downstream across our region with returning
southerly flow allowing 850 temps to warm into the upper teens. This
should allow temps to warm well into the lower to middle 80s for
daytime highs...with a warm night then in store through Saturday
morning. Both Friday and Friday night look to remain dry with precip
chances increasing beyond this as remnant Hurricane Odile circulation
approaches. More details below.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The potentially active weekend weather continues to be of focus for
the extended period. The upper pattern should feature a closed low
developing over southern California, with a well-defined vort max
from the remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast
from the Desert Southwest into central Missouri. To the north, a
strong shortwave trough will quickly dive towards the Great Lakes
states and begin to amplify into a large trough over the eastern
CONUS. Models deviate some to the speed of these features,
especially the Euro that is approximately 6-12 hours slower with the
arrival of remnants of Odile and the associated vertical
ascent/tropospheric moistening. The lack of consistent timing places
additional uncertainty to the forecast, but the overall signal still
suggests many areas in the CWA should receive rainfall Saturday into
Saturday night. The overall large scale ascent has trended a little
weaker than earlier model runs, perhaps in part to a slower westward
amplification to the approaching upper trough, and likewise models
have gradually lowered QPF amounts. Went with a forecast blend, not
ready to fully buy into any one solution, and considering the ample
moisture projected to advect into the area. While the heaviest
precipitation may fall to the southwest of the CWA, an average of
one-half inch of rainfall still appears possible prior to a cold
front moving through the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday.
Upon the frontal passage, drier air will filter into the region for
the remainder of Sunday into Monday, yielding mostly sunny skies,
northerly winds, and a dry forecast. With the large upper trough
slow to move east, relatively tranquil conditions are anticipated
through midweek as the western periphery of surface high pressure
remains in control.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Challenging fcst this morning as low clouds will likely remain in the
area following this morning/s convection. For now...have advertised
tempo IFR conditions at both MKC and MCI as these terminals received
the most rainfall. Further north at STJ...confidence for IFR was too
low to include for the moment. In any event...low stratus to hand on
this morning before subtle improvements occur by early afternoon.
Following this...VFR conditions should dominate through the remainder
of the fcst period with winds becoming variable by afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 170808
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Out of the gate this morning...initial concerns remain focused on
early morning convection and prospects for additional shwrs/storms
later today as a frontal boundary slowly approaches the area. Fcst
models in recent days have been hinting at decent isentropic ascent
along the 305 and 310K theta surfaces as a 35 kt low-level jet
ascends the boundary. One thing that does appear a little different
with today/s models is the indication that upper jet dynamics will be
a little more conducive to support modest divergence aloft. This
combined with the aforementioned isentropic ascent along with some
weak mid-level vorticity advection should keep the threat for
scattered shwrs/storms going through at least early afternoon. With
MUCAPE values exceeding 1000 Joules this morning...along with 0-6 km
bulk shear values remaining near 40 kts...modestly sheared updrafts
will be capable of small hail with today/s convection. By mid to late
afternoon...upper shortwave should be exiting to the southeast which
should allow for a gradual decrease in precip from north to south as
the day progresses. Temps a little tricky today as cloud cover and
precip may hinder optimal heating. In any event...decent warm air
advection as referenced above...combined with warming 850 temps
should allow mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s
possible from the KC metro west into eastern KS.

For tonight...main frontal boundary will again be suppressed to the
south and west as strong sfc high pressure builds into the upper
Great Lakes. As this occurs...models suggest an influx of drier air
as sfc ridging extends all the way west to the lwr Missouri Vly.
Still cannot rule out some light shwr development across western
portions of the fcst area thanks for frontogenesis circulations...but
overall confidence is waning given current model trends. In any
event...will hold on to low chc pops across the far south and
southwest...while maintaining dry conditions for our eastern zones.
Overnight lows have the potential of varying widely...with low 50s
possible across the far northeast in drier and cooler air...while low
60s are likely to the west in closer proximity to the frontal
boundary.

With frontal boundary shunted to the west on Thursday...expect
slightly cooler temps to those experienced today. Overall prospects
for rain look low as front remains west and thus have maintained a
dry fcst for now. By Thursday night...models suggest the possibility
of developing shwrs as a weak disturbances embedded in the polar jet
passes well to our north. After careful inspection of several model
fields...having a hard time finding a suitable triggering mechanism
to get convection going. As a result...have a dry fcst was maintained
which agrees well with surrounding offices.

Large scale pattern shift to get underway on Friday as upper flow
begins to back to the southwest in advance of a large scale upper low
developing over central/southern California. The end result will be
for building heights downstream across our region with returning
southerly flow allowing 850 temps to warm into the upper teens. This
should allow temps to warm well into the lower to middle 80s for
daytime highs...with a warm night then in store through Saturday
morning. Both Friday and Friday night look to remain dry with precip
chances increasing beyond this as remnant Hurricane Odile circulation
approaches. More details below.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The potentially active weekend weather continues to be of focus for
the extended period. The upper pattern should feature a closed low
developing over southern California, with a well-defined vort max
from the remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast
from the Desert Southwest into central Missouri. To the north, a
strong shortwave trough will quickly dive towards the Great Lakes
states and begin to amplify into a large trough over the eastern
CONUS. Models deviate some to the speed of these features,
especially the Euro that is approximately 6-12 hours slower with the
arrival of remnants of Odile and the associated vertical
ascent/tropospheric moistening. The lack of consistent timing places
additional uncertainty to the forecast, but the overall signal still
suggests many areas in the CWA should receive rainfall Saturday into
Saturday night. The overall large scale ascent has trended a little
weaker than earlier model runs, perhaps in part to a slower westward
amplification to the approaching upper trough, and likewise models
have gradually lowered QPF amounts. Went with a forecast blend, not
ready to fully buy into any one solution, and considering the ample
moisture projected to advect into the area. While the heaviest
precipitation may fall to the southwest of the CWA, an average of
one-half inch of rainfall still appears possible prior to a cold
front moving through the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday.
Upon the frontal passage, drier air will filter into the region for
the remainder of Sunday into Monday, yielding mostly sunny skies,
northerly winds, and a dry forecast. With the large upper trough
slow to move east, relatively tranquil conditions are anticipated
through midweek as the western periphery of surface high pressure
remains in control.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Short range hi-res models cont to develop thunderstorms acrs ern KS
tonight btn 08Z-09Z which may move into the VC of the terminals
around 10Z but the bulk of pcpn should remain south of the terminals.
Models also cont to introduce MVFR cigs at the terminals around 10Z
as well and keep them at the terminals through the morning hours.
Cigs should finally sct during the afternoon around 2-3kft with just
sct high clouds expected during the evening. Winds will be light thru
the pd backing fro the SE to the E.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 170808
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Out of the gate this morning...initial concerns remain focused on
early morning convection and prospects for additional shwrs/storms
later today as a frontal boundary slowly approaches the area. Fcst
models in recent days have been hinting at decent isentropic ascent
along the 305 and 310K theta surfaces as a 35 kt low-level jet
ascends the boundary. One thing that does appear a little different
with today/s models is the indication that upper jet dynamics will be
a little more conducive to support modest divergence aloft. This
combined with the aforementioned isentropic ascent along with some
weak mid-level vorticity advection should keep the threat for
scattered shwrs/storms going through at least early afternoon. With
MUCAPE values exceeding 1000 Joules this morning...along with 0-6 km
bulk shear values remaining near 40 kts...modestly sheared updrafts
will be capable of small hail with today/s convection. By mid to late
afternoon...upper shortwave should be exiting to the southeast which
should allow for a gradual decrease in precip from north to south as
the day progresses. Temps a little tricky today as cloud cover and
precip may hinder optimal heating. In any event...decent warm air
advection as referenced above...combined with warming 850 temps
should allow mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s
possible from the KC metro west into eastern KS.

For tonight...main frontal boundary will again be suppressed to the
south and west as strong sfc high pressure builds into the upper
Great Lakes. As this occurs...models suggest an influx of drier air
as sfc ridging extends all the way west to the lwr Missouri Vly.
Still cannot rule out some light shwr development across western
portions of the fcst area thanks for frontogenesis circulations...but
overall confidence is waning given current model trends. In any
event...will hold on to low chc pops across the far south and
southwest...while maintaining dry conditions for our eastern zones.
Overnight lows have the potential of varying widely...with low 50s
possible across the far northeast in drier and cooler air...while low
60s are likely to the west in closer proximity to the frontal
boundary.

With frontal boundary shunted to the west on Thursday...expect
slightly cooler temps to those experienced today. Overall prospects
for rain look low as front remains west and thus have maintained a
dry fcst for now. By Thursday night...models suggest the possibility
of developing shwrs as a weak disturbances embedded in the polar jet
passes well to our north. After careful inspection of several model
fields...having a hard time finding a suitable triggering mechanism
to get convection going. As a result...have a dry fcst was maintained
which agrees well with surrounding offices.

Large scale pattern shift to get underway on Friday as upper flow
begins to back to the southwest in advance of a large scale upper low
developing over central/southern California. The end result will be
for building heights downstream across our region with returning
southerly flow allowing 850 temps to warm into the upper teens. This
should allow temps to warm well into the lower to middle 80s for
daytime highs...with a warm night then in store through Saturday
morning. Both Friday and Friday night look to remain dry with precip
chances increasing beyond this as remnant Hurricane Odile circulation
approaches. More details below.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The potentially active weekend weather continues to be of focus for
the extended period. The upper pattern should feature a closed low
developing over southern California, with a well-defined vort max
from the remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast
from the Desert Southwest into central Missouri. To the north, a
strong shortwave trough will quickly dive towards the Great Lakes
states and begin to amplify into a large trough over the eastern
CONUS. Models deviate some to the speed of these features,
especially the Euro that is approximately 6-12 hours slower with the
arrival of remnants of Odile and the associated vertical
ascent/tropospheric moistening. The lack of consistent timing places
additional uncertainty to the forecast, but the overall signal still
suggests many areas in the CWA should receive rainfall Saturday into
Saturday night. The overall large scale ascent has trended a little
weaker than earlier model runs, perhaps in part to a slower westward
amplification to the approaching upper trough, and likewise models
have gradually lowered QPF amounts. Went with a forecast blend, not
ready to fully buy into any one solution, and considering the ample
moisture projected to advect into the area. While the heaviest
precipitation may fall to the southwest of the CWA, an average of
one-half inch of rainfall still appears possible prior to a cold
front moving through the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday.
Upon the frontal passage, drier air will filter into the region for
the remainder of Sunday into Monday, yielding mostly sunny skies,
northerly winds, and a dry forecast. With the large upper trough
slow to move east, relatively tranquil conditions are anticipated
through midweek as the western periphery of surface high pressure
remains in control.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Short range hi-res models cont to develop thunderstorms acrs ern KS
tonight btn 08Z-09Z which may move into the VC of the terminals
around 10Z but the bulk of pcpn should remain south of the terminals.
Models also cont to introduce MVFR cigs at the terminals around 10Z
as well and keep them at the terminals through the morning hours.
Cigs should finally sct during the afternoon around 2-3kft with just
sct high clouds expected during the evening. Winds will be light thru
the pd backing fro the SE to the E.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 170453
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Short range hi-res models cont to develop thunderstorms acrs ern KS
tonight btn 08Z-09Z which may move into the VC of the terminals
around 10Z but the bulk of pcpn should remain south of the terminals.
Models also cont to introduce MVFR cigs at the terminals around 10Z
as well and keep them at the terminals through the morning hours.
Cigs should finally sct during the afternoon around 2-3kft with just
sct high clouds expected during the evening. Winds will be light thru
the pd backing fro the SE to the E.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 170453
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Short range hi-res models cont to develop thunderstorms acrs ern KS
tonight btn 08Z-09Z which may move into the VC of the terminals
around 10Z but the bulk of pcpn should remain south of the terminals.
Models also cont to introduce MVFR cigs at the terminals around 10Z
as well and keep them at the terminals through the morning hours.
Cigs should finally sct during the afternoon around 2-3kft with just
sct high clouds expected during the evening. Winds will be light thru
the pd backing fro the SE to the E.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 162327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The near looks to remain VFR with increasing mid lvl clouds expected
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area after
midnight with hi-res models bringing thunderstorms into the VC of the
terminals around 10Z with MVFR cigs. Thunderstorms will shift south
of the terminals by mid-morning with cigs scattering out around
2-3kft. Winds through the period will be light out of the SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 162327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The near looks to remain VFR with increasing mid lvl clouds expected
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area after
midnight with hi-res models bringing thunderstorms into the VC of the
terminals around 10Z with MVFR cigs. Thunderstorms will shift south
of the terminals by mid-morning with cigs scattering out around
2-3kft. Winds through the period will be light out of the SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 161934
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
234 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time
think the CIGS should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the VCSH
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out
of the southeast and under 15 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha








000
FXUS63 KEAX 161934
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
234 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time
think the CIGS should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the VCSH
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out
of the southeast and under 15 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KEAX 161748
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time
think the CIGS should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the VCSH
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out
of the southeast and under 15 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KEAX 161748
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time
think the CIGS should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the VCSH
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out
of the southeast and under 15 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha








000
FXUS63 KEAX 161132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Early morning radiation fog at STJ will quickly burn off by 14z as the
daytime heating cycle commences. In its wake...VFR conditions to
dominate through much of the day as high pressure slowly slides east
of the region. Clouds will be on the increase overnight as a frontal
boundary lifts north towards the area. Fcst models show developing
convection after 6z...however will leave mention out for now based
on distance into the fcst period. Winds through the period will
remain from the east between 4-8 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 160835
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 160835
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73







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