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000
FXUS63 KEAX 301110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

For this morning, widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm are possible as a shortwave trough moves quickly
through the region. A cold front will also sweep through the area
with this wave, veering winds sharply to the northwest at speeds of
15 to 25 mph, before lessening slightly as the front moves off to
the southeast. Temperatures behind the boundary should not be
immediately colder, and may still reach the mid to even upper 60s
early this afternoon as sunshine returns, but will then fall during
the late afternoon hours as the colder air slowly filters down.

Much colder temperatures are expected for Friday as a surge of cold
Canadian air pushes into the eastern Plains and strong surface high
pressure builds in across the central CONUS. Highs are expected to
top out only in the lower to middle 40s Friday afternoon, making for
a very chilly Halloween throughout the region. Temperatures Friday
night will drop quickly into the lower 30s, and will eventually
bottom out in the mid to upper 20s by early Saturday morning. A
freeze warning has been issued for the entire area, as these cold
temperatures are expected to end the growing season.

A slow warming trend will begin Saturday and continue through early
next week as the eastern trough quickly departs, allowing southerly
flow to return at low levels and ridging to build aloft. The upper-
level ridge will be short-lived as a low pressure system lifts from
the Rockies into North Dakota on Sunday night and Monday, dragging a
slow-moving cold front through our area Monday through Tuesday. A
few showers and isolated storms are possible out ahead of the front
Sunday night, but will become more likely and more widespread on
Monday and Monday night as the boundary sets up across the region.
The highest PoPs have shifted slightly north from previous forecast
issuances, but the heaviest rainfall and best chance for widespread
showers and storms will still be across the southeastern half of the
CWA, especially Monday night.

The front will eventually sink south of the region and settle near
the Gulf by midweek; however, temperatures should be fairly mild in
its wake as the low heads off to the northeast and zonal flow fills
in behind. At this time, no addition precipitation is expected
beyond the departure of the cold front on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Widely scattered light showers will continue to move east southeast
across the region this morning; however, no significant visibility or
ceiling restrictions are expected. Winds will remain around 10 kts
out of the S to SW this morning, then a cold front will sweep through
between 15z and 18z, veering winds to the northwest and increasing
speeds to 15 to 20 kts, with possible higher gusts. Showers should
end behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 300820
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

For this morning, widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm are possible as a shortwave trough moves quickly
through the region. A cold front will also sweep through the area
with this wave, veering winds sharply to the northwest at speeds of
15 to 25 mph, before lessening slightly as the front moves off to
the southeast. Temperatures behind the boundary should not be
immediately colder, and may still reach the mid to even upper 60s
early this afternoon as sunshine returns, but will then fall during
the late afternoon hours as the colder air slowly filters down.

Much colder temperatures are expected for Friday as a surge of cold
Canadian air pushes into the eastern Plains and strong surface high
pressure builds in across the central CONUS. Highs are expected to
top out only in the lower to middle 40s Friday afternoon, making for
a very chilly Halloween throughout the region. Temperatures Friday
night will drop quickly into the lower 30s, and will eventually
bottom out in the mid to upper 20s by early Saturday morning. A
freeze warning has been issued for the entire area, as these cold
temperatures are expected to end the growing season.

A slow warming trend will begin Saturday and continue through early
next week as the eastern trough quickly departs, allowing southerly
flow to return at low levels and ridging to build aloft. The upper-
level ridge will be short-lived as a low pressure system lifts from
the Rockies into North Dakota on Sunday night and Monday, dragging a
slow-moving cold front through our area Monday through Tuesday. A
few showers and isolated storms are possible out ahead of the front
Sunday night, but will become more likely and more widespread on
Monday and Monday night as the boundary sets up across the region.
The highest PoPs have shifted slightly north from previous forecast
issuances, but the heaviest rainfall and best chance for widespread
showers and storms will still be across the southeastern half of the
CWA, especially Monday night.

The front will eventually sink south of the region and settle near
the Gulf by midweek; however, temperatures should be fairly mild in
its wake as the low heads off to the northeast and zonal flow fills
in behind. At this time, no addition precipitation is expected
beyond the departure of the cold front on Tuesday or Tuesday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Southwest winds will increase to around 40 kts at 500-1000 ft AGL,
resulting in a period of low-level wind shear between 09z and 13z
while surface winds remain light southeasterly. A few light rain
showers are possible around 15z-18z, but should not significantly
reduce visibility, and ceilings should remain around 10 kft. A cold
front will move through the TAF sites around 18z, veering winds
sharply to the northwest at speeds around 15 to 20 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 300555
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Over the next 7 days, the main concerns will be cold temperatures
and the resulting potential for frost/freeze on several mornings,
and rain/storm chances early next week.

This morning will start out with brisk high pressure over the area
and many locations in northern MO dropping to the mid to upper 30s;
then, cooler air will continue to trickle down into the region this
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures a few additional degrees
below yesterday`s highs -- mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly flow will then briefly return for tonight and part of
Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures of the next 7 days
in the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. A few isolated showers are
still possible, and may become slightly more widespread from west to
east as a shortwave trough moves through tomorrow, but nominal
rainfall amounts are expected and PoPs remain low.

Behind Thursday`s shortwave trough, a much deeper trough will sink
from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region from Thursday night
through Friday. The track of this system has come progressively
further to the west in the last few model runs, and will usher the
coldest air of the season into the CWA for Friday and Friday night.
Have lowered Friday morning`s highs by several degrees and added a
mention of patchy frost in our north, but the biggest reduction in
forecast temperatures was to Friday afternoon`s highs and Saturday
morning`s lows. All models bring a broad area of high pressure into
the central CONUS as 850 hPa temperatures drop into the -2 to -7
degree range on Friday, making any diurnal warming very difficult.
Have dropped highs into the 40s CWA-wide for Friday, and may need to
trend even a touch colder if models continue to head this direction.
Lows for Friday night into Saturday morning now look solidly in the
20s to at most 30 degrees, and will likely result in the first hard
freeze of the year throughout the forecast area.

As the trough pushes east, temperatures will gradually warm for the
rest of the weekend and into next week, but will be modulated by
rain chances Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will lift out
of the Rockies on Sunday and will lift into North Dakota by Monday,
dragging a slow-moving cold front through the CWA Monday through at
least Tuesday morning. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
become possible ahead of the system on Sunday night, and will become
more likely along the boundary on Monday. General model consensus is
now for the base of that trough to cut off over the desert southwest
and linger there through the end of the forecast period while the
surface front stalls over southern Missouri, but this is a deviation
from yesterday`s more progressive solutions, so the forecast becomes
more unclear for Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Southwest winds will increase to around 40 kts at 500-1000 ft AGL,
resulting in a period of low-level wind shear between 09z and 13z
while surface winds remain light southeasterly. A few light rain
showers are possible around 15z-18z, but should not significantly
reduce visibility, and ceilings should remain around 10 kft. A cold
front will move through the TAF sites around 18z, veering winds
sharply to the northwest at speeds around 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 292348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
648 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Over the next 7 days, the main concerns will be cold temperatures
and the resulting potential for frost/freeze on several mornings,
and rain/storm chances early next week.

This morning will start out with brisk high pressure over the area
and many locations in northern MO dropping to the mid to upper 30s;
then, cooler air will continue to trickle down into the region this
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures a few additional degrees
below yesterday`s highs -- mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly flow will then briefly return for tonight and part of
Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures of the next 7 days
in the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. A few isolated showers are
still possible, and may become slightly more widespread from west to
east as a shortwave trough moves through tomorrow, but nominal
rainfall amounts are expected and PoPs remain low.

Behind Thursday`s shortwave trough, a much deeper trough will sink
from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region from Thursday night
through Friday. The track of this system has come progressively
further to the west in the last few model runs, and will usher the
coldest air of the season into the CWA for Friday and Friday night.
Have lowered Friday morning`s highs by several degrees and added a
mention of patchy frost in our north, but the biggest reduction in
forecast temperatures was to Friday afternoon`s highs and Saturday
morning`s lows. All models bring a broad area of high pressure into
the central CONUS as 850 hPa temperatures drop into the -2 to -7
degree range on Friday, making any diurnal warming very difficult.
Have dropped highs into the 40s CWA-wide for Friday, and may need to
trend even a touch colder if models continue to head this direction.
Lows for Friday night into Saturday morning now look solidly in the
20s to at most 30 degrees, and will likely result in the first hard
freeze of the year throughout the forecast area.

As the trough pushes east, temperatures will gradually warm for the
rest of the weekend and into next week, but will be modulated by
rain chances Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will lift out
of the Rockies on Sunday and will lift into North Dakota by Monday,
dragging a slow-moving cold front through the CWA Monday through at
least Tuesday morning. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
become possible ahead of the system on Sunday night, and will become
more likely along the boundary on Monday. General model consensus is
now for the base of that trough to cut off over the desert southwest
and linger there through the end of the forecast period while the
surface front stalls over southern Missouri, but this is a deviation
from yesterday`s more progressive solutions, so the forecast becomes
more unclear for Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as the only clouds
due to move through will be in the 10,000 foot range. Otherwise,
expect the wind to remain light through the evening hours with wind
speeds picking up and turning to south and southwest early Thursday
morning. This may also bring the onset of low level wind shear.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter









000
FXUS63 KEAX 291732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Tonight)

Great weather for outdoor activities was observed across much of Missouri
over the course of the afternoon.

Rising mid level heights were ongoing in response to a shortwave ridge
of high pressure translating across the Corn Belt and northern Plains.
Your evening forecast looks chilly with temperatures quickly dropping
all the way into the 40s by 7pm. Winds through the evening will be
light and from the southeast, with speeds ranging from 0 - 5 mph.
Sky conditions will remain clear, with increasing clouds after 10pm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

With a cold front quickly approaching from the west, some indications
in the models suggest isolated sprinkles or a showers mainly along or
north of I-70 Thursday morning. Most areas should remain dry.

Winds will shift to the northwest tomorrow, causing dry air to spread
over the Lower Missouri River Valley. Temperatures trend lower the
rest of the week with highs only in the 40s on Friday. A strengthening
long wave trough amplifies the upper pattern, forcing a Canadian high
directly into northern Missouri Saturday morning.

Skies will be clear and winds will be light, causing temperatures to
ease well into the 20s Saturday morning. These temperatures will be
ripe for ending the growing season for 2014. Future shifts will be
investigating the need for a Freeze Warning. The dry weather will
extend through Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms returning
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

VFR conditions will continue for pilots flying in and out of the
area. Light and variable wind will become light southerly winds late
this evening. Skies will generally be mostly clear with high
clouds moving in by Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291135
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Over the next 7 days, the main concerns will be cold temperatures
and the resulting potential for frost/freeze on several mornings,
and rain/storm chances early next week.

This morning will start out with brisk high pressure over the area
and many locations in northern MO dropping to the mid to upper 30s;
then, cooler air will continue to trickle down into the region this
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures a few additional degrees
below yesterday`s highs -- mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly flow will then briefly return for tonight and part of
Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures of the next 7 days
in the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. A few isolated showers are
still possible, and may become slightly more widespread from west to
east as a shortwave trough moves through tomorrow, but nominal
rainfall amounts are expected and PoPs remain low.

Behind Thursday`s shortwave trough, a much deeper trough will sink
from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region from Thursday night
through Friday. The track of this system has come progressively
further to the west in the last few model runs, and will usher the
coldest air of the season into the CWA for Friday and Friday night.
Have lowered Friday morning`s highs by several degrees and added a
mention of patchy frost in our north, but the biggest reduction in
forecast temperatures was to Friday afternoon`s highs and Saturday
morning`s lows. All models bring a broad area of high pressure into
the central CONUS as 850 hPa temperatures drop into the -2 to -7
degree range on Friday, making any diurnal warming very difficult.
Have dropped highs into the 40s CWA-wide for Friday, and may need to
trend even a touch colder if models continue to head this direction.
Lows for Friday night into Saturday morning now look solidly in the
20s to at most 30 degrees, and will likely result in the first hard
freeze of the year throughout the forecast area.

As the trough pushes east, temperatures will gradually warm for the
rest of the weekend and into next week, but will be modulated by
rain chances Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will lift out
of the Rockies on Sunday and will lift into North Dakota by Monday,
dragging a slow-moving cold front through the CWA Monday through at
least Tuesday morning. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
become possible ahead of the system on Sunday night, and will become
more likely along the boundary on Monday. General model consensus is
now for the base of that trough to cut off over the desert southwest
and linger there through the end of the forecast period while the
surface front stalls over southern Missouri, but this is a deviation
from yesterday`s more progressive solutions, so the forecast becomes
more unclear for Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light
northwest winds will remain around or less than 5 kts through late
evening, then will gradually become southeasterly at 5-7 kts by 06z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 290803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Over the next 7 days, the main concerns will be cold temperatures
and the resulting potential for frost/freeze on several mornings,
and rain/storm chances early next week.

This morning will start out with brisk high pressure over the area
and many locations in northern MO dropping to the mid to upper 30s;
then, cooler air will continue to trickle down into the region this
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures a few additional degrees
below yesterday`s highs -- mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly flow will then briefly return for tonight and part of
Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures of the next 7 days
in the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. A few isolated showers are
still possible, and may become slightly more widespread from west to
east as a shortwave trough moves through tomorrow, but nominal
rainfall amounts are expected and PoPs remain low.

Behind Thursday`s shortwave trough, a much deeper trough will sink
from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region from Thursday night
through Friday. The track of this system has come progressively
further to the west in the last few model runs, and will usher the
coldest air of the season into the CWA for Friday and Friday night.
Have lowered Friday morning`s highs by several degrees and added a
mention of patchy frost in our north, but the biggest reduction in
forecast temperatures was to Friday afternoon`s highs and Saturday
morning`s lows. All models bring a broad area of high pressure into
the central CONUS as 850 hPa temperatures drop into the -2 to -7
degree range on Friday, making any diurnal warming very difficult.
Have dropped highs into the 40s CWA-wide for Friday, and may need to
trend even a touch colder if models continue to head this direction.
Lows for Friday night into Saturday morning now look solidly in the
20s to at most 30 degrees, and will likely result in the first hard
freeze of the year throughout the forecast area.

As the trough pushes east, temperatures will gradually warm for the
rest of the weekend and into next week, but will be modulated by
rain chances Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will lift out
of the Rockies on Sunday and will lift into North Dakota by Monday,
dragging a slow-moving cold front through the CWA Monday through at
least Tuesday morning. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
become possible ahead of the system on Sunday night, and will become
more likely along the boundary on Monday. General model consensus is
now for the base of that trough to cut off over the desert southwest
and linger there through the end of the forecast period while the
surface front stalls over southern Missouri, but this is a deviation
from yesterday`s more progressive solutions, so the forecast becomes
more unclear for Tuesday and beyond.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be that the light and variable wind overnight
will slowly turn to the southeast late Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 290406
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1106 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Thursday):

The main concern in the short term will be for the potential for
frost tonight. A surface ridge of high pressure across the central
Plains this afternoon will move into the area tonight. Relatively
calm winds coupled with mostly clear skies will allow for good
radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the mid 30s to
around 40. As such, have issued a frost advisory for northern
Missouri between 4AM and 9AM. High pressure will remain in control
through the day Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday night, high pressure will shift east
and we get a brief return to southerly low keeping overnight lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. A quick moving upper level shortwave will
force a cold front through the CWA on Thursday. A few light showers
will be possible over the eastern CWA but dry air near the surface
may keep conditions dry. Consequently, have slight chance POPs in
the forecast for Thursday. Highs will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s ahead of the front. The front will quickly push east of the area
by Thursday night with lows again falling into the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

Long Term (Friday through Tuesday):

The extended time frame will start out quiet but chilly. High
pressure will build into the region from the northern Plains on
Friday. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to mid 50s providing for
chilly trick-or-treat conditions. Models are in good agreement that
the surface ridge will reside directly over the area on Friday
night. This will provide for good radiational cooling and the
potential for the first freeze for most of the area. Expect lows in
the mid 20s to low 30s. With cool surface high pressure expected to
remain in control over much of the day on Saturday, highs will only
reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. Sunday, an upper level ridge will
build over the area in response to a  trough digging into the
central Rockies. This will provide a warm up back to near normal
conditions with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Sunday night the
aforementioned upper level trough will move into the eastern Rockies
forcing a cold front into the Plains. This will increase shower
chances across the area Sunday night. These shower chances will be
prolonged through Tuesday as the upper level trough shifts northeast
into the Canadian Plains and the cold front stalls across the area.
As such have chance POPs in the forecast Sunday night through
Tuesday before chances diminish late in the day. Highs Sunday
through Tuesday will be seasonable in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be that the light and variable wind overnight
will slowly turn to the southeast late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 290406
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1106 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Thursday):

The main concern in the short term will be for the potential for
frost tonight. A surface ridge of high pressure across the central
Plains this afternoon will move into the area tonight. Relatively
calm winds coupled with mostly clear skies will allow for good
radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the mid 30s to
around 40. As such, have issued a frost advisory for northern
Missouri between 4AM and 9AM. High pressure will remain in control
through the day Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday night, high pressure will shift east
and we get a brief return to southerly low keeping overnight lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. A quick moving upper level shortwave will
force a cold front through the CWA on Thursday. A few light showers
will be possible over the eastern CWA but dry air near the surface
may keep conditions dry. Consequently, have slight chance POPs in
the forecast for Thursday. Highs will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s ahead of the front. The front will quickly push east of the area
by Thursday night with lows again falling into the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

Long Term (Friday through Tuesday):

The extended time frame will start out quiet but chilly. High
pressure will build into the region from the northern Plains on
Friday. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to mid 50s providing for
chilly trick-or-treat conditions. Models are in good agreement that
the surface ridge will reside directly over the area on Friday
night. This will provide for good radiational cooling and the
potential for the first freeze for most of the area. Expect lows in
the mid 20s to low 30s. With cool surface high pressure expected to
remain in control over much of the day on Saturday, highs will only
reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. Sunday, an upper level ridge will
build over the area in response to a  trough digging into the
central Rockies. This will provide a warm up back to near normal
conditions with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Sunday night the
aforementioned upper level trough will move into the eastern Rockies
forcing a cold front into the Plains. This will increase shower
chances across the area Sunday night. These shower chances will be
prolonged through Tuesday as the upper level trough shifts northeast
into the Canadian Plains and the cold front stalls across the area.
As such have chance POPs in the forecast Sunday night through
Tuesday before chances diminish late in the day. Highs Sunday
through Tuesday will be seasonable in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be that the light and variable wind overnight
will slowly turn to the southeast late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 282323
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Thursday):

The main concern in the short term will be for the potential for
frost tonight. A surface ridge of high pressure across the central
Plains this afternoon will move into the area tonight. Relatively
calm winds coupled with mostly clear skies will allow for good
radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the mid 30s to
around 40. As such, have issued a frost advisory for northern
Missouri between 4AM and 9AM. High pressure will remain in control
through the day Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday night, high pressure will shift east
and we get a brief return to southerly low keeping overnight lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. A quick moving upper level shortwave will
force a cold front through the CWA on Thursday. A few light showers
will be possible over the eastern CWA but dry air near the surface
may keep conditions dry. Consequently, have slight chance POPs in
the forecast for Thursday. Highs will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s ahead of the front. The front will quickly push east of the area
by Thursday night with lows again falling into the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

Long Term (Friday through Tuesday):

The extended time frame will start out quiet but chilly. High
pressure will build into the region from the northern Plains on
Friday. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to mid 50s providing for
chilly trick-or-treat conditions. Models are in good agreement that
the surface ridge will reside directly over the area on Friday
night. This will provide for good radiational cooling and the
potential for the first freeze for most of the area. Expect lows in
the mid 20s to low 30s. With cool surface high pressure expected to
remain in control over much of the day on Saturday, highs will only
reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. Sunday, an upper level ridge will
build over the area in response to a  trough digging into the
central Rockies. This will provide a warm up back to near normal
conditions with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Sunday night the
aforementioned upper level trough will move into the eastern Rockies
forcing a cold front into the Plains. This will increase shower
chances across the area Sunday night. These shower chances will be
prolonged through Tuesday as the upper level trough shifts northeast
into the Canadian Plains and the cold front stalls across the area.
As such have chance POPs in the forecast Sunday night through
Tuesday before chances diminish late in the day. Highs Sunday
through Tuesday will be seasonable in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all the terminals
overnight. Winds will taper off to light and variable within the next
hours or two, and will likely be rather light through at least noon
Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 282101
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
401 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Thursday):

The main concern in the short term will be for the potential for
frost tonight. A surface ridge of high pressure across the central
Plains this afternoon will move into the area tonight. Relatively
calm winds coupled with mostly clear skies will allow for good
radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the mid 30s to
around 40. As such, have issued a frost advisory for northern
Missouri between 4AM and 9AM. High pressure will remain in control
through the day Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday night, high pressure will shift east
and we get a brief return to southerly low keeping overnight lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. A quick moving upper level shortwave will
force a cold front through the CWA on Thursday. A few light showers
will be possible over the eastern CWA but dry air near the surface
may keep conditions dry. Consequently, have slight chance POPs in
the forecast for Thursday. Highs will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s ahead of the front. The front will quickly push east of the area
by Thursday night with lows again falling into the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

Long Term (Friday through Tuesday):

The extended time frame will start out quiet but chilly. High
pressure will build into the region from the northern Plains on
Friday. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to mid 50s providing for
chilly trick-or-treat conditions. Models are in good agreement that
the surface ridge will reside directly over the area on Friday
night. This will provide for good radiational cooling and the
potential for the first freeze for most of the area. Expect lows in
the mid 20s to low 30s. With cool surface high pressure expected to
remain in control over much of the day on Saturday, highs will only
reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. Sunday, an upper level ridge will
build over the area in response to a  trough digging into the
central Rockies. This will provide a warm up back to near normal
conditions with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Sunday night the
aforementioned upper level trough will move into the eastern Rockies
forcing a cold front into the Plains. This will increase shower
chances across the area Sunday night. These shower chances will be
prolonged through Tuesday as the upper level trough shifts northeast
into the Canadian Plains and the cold front stalls across the area.
As such have chance POPs in the forecast Sunday night through
Tuesday before chances diminish late in the day. Highs Sunday
through Tuesday will be seasonable in the mid 50s to lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
expected through this evening before becmg clr tonight. Winds will
be out of the northwest around 10kts this afternoon before becmg lgt
and vrb tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 281711
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Much cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds this afternoon
will bring the forecast area abruptly back into autumn for the next
several days. Northwest flow will continue to allow colder air to
filter in through Wednesday, resulting in even cooler highs for
Wednesday afternoon, especially in the east. Mainly dry conditions
are expected in this flow regime, although a few early morning
sprinkles are possible in the next few hours as upper trough passes
over. Patchy frost still looks possible early Wednesday morning as
surface high pressure filters into northern Missouri, mainly north of
the MO river where lows are expected to dip into the mid 30s.

Have added in a very slight chance of isolated showers on Thursday
as a shortwave trough passes through the region -- continuity has
been good with this feature, and although moisture is limited, some
very light precipitation looks possible. Temperatures should be a
bit warmer Thursday as southerly flow briefly returns ahead of the
shortwave trough, but falling temperatures are expected during the
afternoon and increased cloud cover should hold highs in the 60s.

Thursday`s trough will continue to deepen and dive southeast across
the eastern U.S. during the late week/weekend period, ushering cold
air into the CWA, especially across our east. The first hard freeze
of the year is possible east/northeast of a line from Maryville to
Moberly, and frost looks possible for the entire rest of the CWA as
lows dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s early Saturday morning.

A brief return to warmer temperatures looks likely for Sunday and
especially Monday ahead of the next system, which is our next chance
for any notable rainfall across the region. Low pressure will lift
out of Rockies on Sunday, heading into the Dakotas Monday and
sending a slow-moving cold front into the forecast area sometime
Monday or Monday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible from Sunday night (initially with WAA/isentropic lift ahead
of the boundary) to early Tuesday morning as the front passes, but
timing could change slightly as this system draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
expected through this evening before becmg clr tonight. Winds will
be out of the northwest around 10kts this afternoon before becmg lgt
and vrb tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 281125
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Much cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds this afternoon
will bring the forecast area abruptly back into autumn for the next
several days. Northwest flow will continue to allow colder air to
filter in through Wednesday, resulting in even cooler highs for
Wednesday afternoon, especially in the east. Mainly dry conditions
are expected in this flow regime, although a few early morning
sprinkles are possible in the next few hours as upper trough passes
over. Patchy frost still looks possible early Wednesday morning as
surface high pressure filters into northern Missouri, mainly north of
the MO river where lows are expected to dip into the mid 30s.

Have added in a very slight chance of isolated showers on Thursday
as a shortwave trough passes through the region -- continuity has
been good with this feature, and although moisture is limited, some
very light precipitation looks possible. Temperatures should be a
bit warmer Thursday as southerly flow briefly returns ahead of the
shortwave trough, but falling temperatures are expected during the
afternoon and increased cloud cover should hold highs in the 60s.

Thursday`s trough will continue to deepen and dive southeast across
the eastern U.S. during the late week/weekend period, ushering cold
air into the CWA, especially across our east. The first hard freeze
of the year is possible east/northeast of a line from Maryville to
Moberly, and frost looks possible for the entire rest of the CWA as
lows dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s early Saturday morning.

A brief return to warmer temperatures looks likely for Sunday and
especially Monday ahead of the next system, which is our next chance
for any notable rainfall across the region. Low pressure will lift
out of Rockies on Sunday, heading into the Dakotas Monday and
sending a slow-moving cold front into the forecast area sometime
Monday or Monday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible from Sunday night (initially with WAA/isentropic lift ahead
of the boundary) to early Tuesday morning as the front passes, but
timing could change slightly as this system draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Winds
will increase out of the northwest this afternoon across northern
MO, occasionally gusting to 15 to 25 kts along and north of the MO
river. A few high clouds may build into portions of southern and
central MO this afternoon, but should stay above 10 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Much cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds this afternoon
will bring the forecast area abruptly back into autumn for the next
several days. Northwest flow will continue to allow colder air to
filter in through Wednesday, resulting in even cooler highs for
Wednesday afternoon, especially in the east. Mainly dry conditions
are expected in this flow regime, although a few early morning
sprinkles are possible in the next few hours as upper trough passes
over. Patchy frost still looks possible early Wednesday morning as
surface high pressure filters into northern Missouri, mainly north of
the MO river where lows are expected to dip into the mid 30s.

Have added in a very slight chance of isolated showers on Thursday
as a shortwave trough passes through the region -- continuity has
been good with this feature, and although moisture is limited, some
very light precipitation looks possible. Temperatures should be a
bit warmer Thursday as southerly flow briefly returns ahead of the
shortwave trough, but falling temperatures are expected during the
afternoon and increased cloud cover should hold highs in the 60s.

Thursday`s trough will continue to deepen and dive southeast across
the eastern U.S. during the late week/weekend period, ushering cold
air into the CWA, especially across our east. The first hard freeze
of the year is possible east/northeast of a line from Maryville to
Moberly, and frost looks possible for the entire rest of the CWA as
lows dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s early Saturday morning.

A brief return to warmer temperatures looks likely for Sunday and
especially Monday ahead of the next system, which is our next chance
for any notable rainfall across the region. Low pressure will lift
out of Rockies on Sunday, heading into the Dakotas Monday and
sending a slow-moving cold front into the forecast area sometime
Monday or Monday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible from Sunday night (initially with WAA/isentropic lift ahead
of the boundary) to early Tuesday morning as the front passes, but
timing could change slightly as this system draws closer.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. High level clouds
will eventually clear out leading to clear skies for much of Tuesday
and Tuesday evening. Winds are also expected to decrease through the
rest of the night with winds around 10kt from the west through
Tuesday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280440
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday):

Cooler weather is on the way as a cold front is currently making its
way through the through the CWA. It is extending from Lamoni, Iowa
down to Emporia, Kansas this afternoon and will continue to move
southeast through the forecast area this evening. Showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms has developed across the southeastern CWA
where shower chances will continue this evening before shifting
south of the CWA with the cold front. Strong cold air advection will
be ongoing behind the front and lows tonight will be nearly 20
degrees cooler than last night with lows in the lower 40s to near
50. The upper level trough associated with the cold front will move
through the area tomorrow and temperatures will be much cooler but,
near normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The main
concern in the short term will come Tuesday night when high pressure
builds into the area providing for good radiational cooling. This
will lead overnight lows to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s and
the potential for patchy frost across northern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. High pressure will remain over the area on
Wednesday with copious sunshine and modest height rises, highs will
again be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will shift
eastward Wednesday night with flow returning to the south. This will
help keep lows in the 40s.

Long Term (Thursday through Monday):

The beginning of the extended looks dry as a cold front will
move through the area on Thursday. Models do try and spit out a few
showers with the frontal passage but dry air in the lower levels
should preclude any measurable moisture. Highs will be in the 60s.
Temperatures will then turn cooler for Friday and Saturday with
highs in the lower 50s to near 60. However, what is of bigger
concern is the potential for the first freeze of the season Friday
night into Saturday morning. The model blend has provided for below
freezing temperatures across the northeastern CWA with lows around
30, the rest of the CWA has initialized with lows in the low to mid
30s providing for widespread frost. Of note is that the GFS and EC
are significantly cooler than the initialization which may be
contaminated by the much warmer GEM. In any case, lows may be even
cooler than forecast and will have to be monitored for potential
freeze warning conditions in future forecast issuances.

Sunday will bring the next chance for showers as an upper level
trough moves from the central Rockies into the northern plans and
pushes a cold front toward the area. With the upper level trough
continuing to move to the northeast into southern Canada by Monday
night, the better forcing for the cold front will be well north of
the area. This will lead to slow cold frontal passage and continued
chances for showers Sunday night into Monday. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be near normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. High level clouds
will eventually clear out leading to clear skies for much of Tuesday
and Tuesday evening. Winds are also expected to decrease through the
rest of the night with winds around 10kt from the west through
Tuesday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280440
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday):

Cooler weather is on the way as a cold front is currently making its
way through the through the CWA. It is extending from Lamoni, Iowa
down to Emporia, Kansas this afternoon and will continue to move
southeast through the forecast area this evening. Showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms has developed across the southeastern CWA
where shower chances will continue this evening before shifting
south of the CWA with the cold front. Strong cold air advection will
be ongoing behind the front and lows tonight will be nearly 20
degrees cooler than last night with lows in the lower 40s to near
50. The upper level trough associated with the cold front will move
through the area tomorrow and temperatures will be much cooler but,
near normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The main
concern in the short term will come Tuesday night when high pressure
builds into the area providing for good radiational cooling. This
will lead overnight lows to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s and
the potential for patchy frost across northern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. High pressure will remain over the area on
Wednesday with copious sunshine and modest height rises, highs will
again be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will shift
eastward Wednesday night with flow returning to the south. This will
help keep lows in the 40s.

Long Term (Thursday through Monday):

The beginning of the extended looks dry as a cold front will
move through the area on Thursday. Models do try and spit out a few
showers with the frontal passage but dry air in the lower levels
should preclude any measurable moisture. Highs will be in the 60s.
Temperatures will then turn cooler for Friday and Saturday with
highs in the lower 50s to near 60. However, what is of bigger
concern is the potential for the first freeze of the season Friday
night into Saturday morning. The model blend has provided for below
freezing temperatures across the northeastern CWA with lows around
30, the rest of the CWA has initialized with lows in the low to mid
30s providing for widespread frost. Of note is that the GFS and EC
are significantly cooler than the initialization which may be
contaminated by the much warmer GEM. In any case, lows may be even
cooler than forecast and will have to be monitored for potential
freeze warning conditions in future forecast issuances.

Sunday will bring the next chance for showers as an upper level
trough moves from the central Rockies into the northern plans and
pushes a cold front toward the area. With the upper level trough
continuing to move to the northeast into southern Canada by Monday
night, the better forcing for the cold front will be well north of
the area. This will lead to slow cold frontal passage and continued
chances for showers Sunday night into Monday. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be near normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. High level clouds
will eventually clear out leading to clear skies for much of Tuesday
and Tuesday evening. Winds are also expected to decrease through the
rest of the night with winds around 10kt from the west through
Tuesday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 272328
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday):

Cooler weather is on the way as a cold front is currently making its
way through the through the CWA. It is extending from Lamoni, Iowa
down to Emporia, Kansas this afternoon and will continue to move
southeast through the forecast area this evening. Showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms has developed across the southeastern CWA
where shower chances will continue this evening before shifting
south of the CWA with the cold front. Strong cold air advection will
be ongoing behind the front and lows tonight will be nearly 20
degrees cooler than last night with lows in the lower 40s to near
50. The upper level trough associated with the cold front will move
through the area tomorrow and temperatures will be much cooler but,
near normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The main
concern in the short term will come Tuesday night when high pressure
builds into the area providing for good radiational cooling. This
will lead overnight lows to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s and
the potential for patchy frost across northern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. High pressure will remain over the area on
Wednesday with copious sunshine and modest height rises, highs will
again be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will shift
eastward Wednesday night with flow returning to the south. This will
help keep lows in the 40s.

Long Term (Thursday through Monday):

The beginning of the extended looks dry as a cold front will
move through the area on Thursday. Models do try and spit out a few
showers with the frontal passage but dry air in the lower levels
should preclude any measurable moisture. Highs will be in the 60s.
Temperatures will then turn cooler for Friday and Saturday with
highs in the lower 50s to near 60. However, what is of bigger
concern is the potential for the first freeze of the season Friday
night into Saturday morning. The model blend has provided for below
freezing temperatures across the northeastern CWA with lows around
30, the rest of the CWA has initialized with lows in the low to mid
30s providing for widespread frost. Of note is that the GFS and EC
are significantly cooler than the initialization which may be
contaminated by the much warmer GEM. In any case, lows may be even
cooler than forecast and will have to be monitored for potential
freeze warning conditions in future forecast issuances.

Sunday will bring the next chance for showers as an upper level
trough moves from the central Rockies into the northern plans and
pushes a cold front toward the area. With the upper level trough
continuing to move to the northeast into southern Canada by Monday
night, the better forcing for the cold front will be well north of
the area. This will lead to slow cold frontal passage and continued
chances for showers Sunday night into Monday. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be near normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period with ceilings
initially in the 4K to 6K FT AGL range. These will eventually lift
and thin out late tonight. Winds will initially be gusty from the
northwest but will also diminish through the night. Clear skies and
light winds will prevail through the day Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 272118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
418 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday):

Cooler weather is on the way as a cold front is currently making its
way through the through the CWA. It is extending from Lamoni, Iowa
down to Emporia, Kansas this afternoon and will continue to move
southeast through the forecast area this evening. Showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms has developed across the southeastern CWA
where shower chances will continue this evening before shifting
south of the CWA with the cold front. Strong cold air advection will
be ongoing behind the front and lows tonight will be nearly 20
degrees cooler than last night with lows in the lower 40s to near
50. The upper level trough associated with the cold front will move
through the area tomorrow and temperatures will be much cooler but,
near normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The main
concern in the short term will come Tuesday night when high pressure
builds into the area providing for good radiational cooling. This
will lead overnight lows to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s and
the potential for patchy frost across northern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. High pressure will remain over the area on
Wednesday with copious sunshine and modest height rises, highs will
again be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will shift
eastward Wednesday night with flow returning to the south. This will
help keep lows in the 40s.

Long Term (Thursday through Monday):

The beginning of the extended looks dry as a cold front will
move through the area on Thursday. Models do try and spit out a few
showers with the frontal passage but dry air in the lower levels
should preclude any measurable moisture. Highs will be in the 60s.
Temperatures will then turn cooler for Friday and Saturday with
highs in the lower 50s to near 60. However, what is of bigger
concern is the potential for the first freeze of the season Friday
night into Saturday morning. The model blend has provided for below
freezing temperatures across the northeastern CWA with lows around
30, the rest of the CWA has initialized with lows in the low to mid
30s providing for widespread frost. Of note is that the GFS and EC
are significantly cooler than the initialization which may be
contaminated by the much warmer GEM. In any case, lows may be even
cooler than forecast and will have to be monitored for potential
freeze warning conditions in future forecast issuances.

Sunday will bring the next chance for showers as an upper level
trough moves from the central Rockies into the northern plans and
pushes a cold front toward the area. With the upper level trough
continuing to move to the northeast into southern Canada by Monday
night, the better forcing for the cold front will be well north of
the area. This will lead to slow cold frontal passage and continued
chances for showers Sunday night into Monday. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be near normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Cloud cover will continue to work its way in the area ahead of a
cold front which will sweep through Monday evening. Isolated showers
along the front are possible, though weak instability will limit the
likelihood of thunderstorm development. Better chances of rain
showers will remain to the east of the KC terminals. Expect to see
any activity diminish overnight, bringing about clearing conditions
Tuesday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 272021
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Today will see another day of unseasonable warmth just ahead of a
cold front that will swing through the area later in the afternoon.
925 hPa temperatures won`t be as high as yesterday, but most areas
should still be able to rise into the middle to upper 70s with a
couple of 80 degree readings possible across central MO. Increasing
isentropic lift ahead of the front should bring an increase in clouds
through the afternoon, and possibly a few elevated showers or weak
thunderstorms although these will have to battle a very dry low-
level airmass just off the surface.

Airmass ahead of this evening`s cold front will be strongly capped
and anything that develops before 03Z or so will have to come from a
highly-elevated and weakly unstable layer above 850 hPa. This should
keep any precipitation fairly isolated in nature until the front
makes it into central Missouri later in the evening. These areas will
have more time for capping to erode although instability and
moisture will remain fairly weak. Therefore any storms that do
develop out that way should stay scattered in nature with strong
storms or heavy rain looking unlikely.

Weak northwesterly flow behind tonight`s front will bring
temperatures back to seasonal averages through the remainder of the
week. May need to watch for a light frost across northwest MO Tuesday
night with a low-level ridge axis and light winds setting up over
that area. Otherwise no frost/freeze chances on the horizon until
Friday night at the earliest, and even that is trending a bit warmer
than previous forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Cloud cover will continue to work its way in the area ahead of a
cold front which will sweep through Monday evening. Isolated showers
along the front are possible, though weak instability will limit the
likelihood of thunderstorm development. Better chances of rain
showers will remain to the east of the KC terminals. Expect to see
any activity diminish overnight, bringing about clearing conditions
Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh










000
FXUS63 KEAX 271705
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Today will see another day of unseasonable warmth just ahead of a
cold front that will swing through the area later in the afternoon.
925 hPa temperatures won`t be as high as yesterday, but most areas
should still be able to rise into the middle to upper 70s with a
couple of 80 degree readings possible across central MO. Increasing
isentropic lift ahead of the front should bring an increase in clouds
through the afternoon, and possibly a few elevated showers or weak
thunderstorms although these will have to battle a very dry low-
level airmass just off the surface.

Airmass ahead of this evening`s cold front will be strongly capped
and anything that develops before 03Z or so will have to come from a
highly-elevated and weakly unstable layer above 850 hPa. This should
keep any precipitation fairly isolated in nature until the front
makes it into central Missouri later in the evening. These areas will
have more time for capping to erode although instability and
moisture will remain fairly weak. Therefore any storms that do
develop out that way should stay scattered in nature with strong
storms or heavy rain looking unlikely.

Weak northwesterly flow behind tonight`s front will bring
temperatures back to seasonal averages through the remainder of the
week. May need to watch for a light frost across northwest MO Tuesday
night with a low-level ridge axis and light winds setting up over
that area. Otherwise no frost/freeze chances on the horizon until
Friday night at the earliest, and even that is trending a bit warmer
than previous forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Cloud cover will continue to work its way in the area ahead of a
cold front which will sweep through Monday evening. Isolated showers
along the front are possible, though weak instability will limit the
likelihood of thunderstorm development. Better chances of rain
showers will remain to the east of the KC terminals. Expect to see
any activity diminish overnight, bringing about clearing conditions
Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh








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