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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 222329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 222329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
254 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
254 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 221728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221145
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A combination of IFR to LIFR conditions are prevailing at the
terminals early this morning as low clouds and drizzle dominate the
region. These restrictive conditions will likely improve towards the
noon time hour into the low end of the MVFR range for the afternoon.
Conditions will likely deteriorate again this evening, but confidence on
how far down to push the flight category is a bit low. Therefore have
left conditions on the low end edge of MVFR, but think IFR conditions
might develop later in the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect surface
winds to remain from the south through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions will great the terminals this morning, but that might
be the last time for the weekend. Moisture moving up from the Gulf
Coast will bring low MVFR clouds to western Missouri late this
morning. This will also likely result in some scattered showers or
possibly some drizzle. Clouds will likely lower into the IFR range
tonight as the moisture keeps streaming north, pushing ceilings down
overnight. This also might result in mist/drizzle though the
overnight hours. Currently temperatures look warm enough to warrant
keeping any mention of freezing precipitation out of the terminals
for now. Otherwise, expect winds to remain generally from the
southeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions will great the terminals this morning, but that might
be the last time for the weekend. Moisture moving up from the Gulf
Coast will bring low MVFR clouds to western Missouri late this
morning. This will also likely result in some scattered showers or
possibly some drizzle. Clouds will likely lower into the IFR range
tonight as the moisture keeps streaming north, pushing ceilings down
overnight. This also might result in mist/drizzle though the
overnight hours. Currently temperatures look warm enough to warrant
keeping any mention of freezing precipitation out of the terminals
for now. Otherwise, expect winds to remain generally from the
southeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210538
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1138 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

To start off in the short-term, benign conditions will continue to
prevail as surface high pressure slowly migrates off toward the east
through tonight. Behind it and with 850mb ridging centered off of
the Carolina-Florida coastline, southerly flow will commence across
MO/eastern KS, allowing for moist, WAA to kick in tomorrow. Model
soundings indicate enough low-level moisture advecting in early
Friday morning for low clouds and possibly drizzle/freezing
drizzle to hang over much of the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area. At this time, confidence remains relatively low of
enough moisture being able to advect in early enough Friday
morning for the below freezing temps to combine with the drizzle
potential to create freezing drizzle. However, indications are
there that this scenario may end up playing out so have continued
to mention this in the forecast, although in terms of impacts, if
freezing drizzle does occur, look to remain on the low side.

With upper-level support/a couple of vort maxes pushing north
through the forecast area tomorrow through overnight Friday, precip
chances lift north, overspreading much of the forecast area late in
the day. High-res models keep tomorrow through early Saturday`s
activity on the showery side and given the amount of mid- to
upper-level dry air remaining in place through Sunday, am agreeing
that the rain will be more hit and miss rather than widespread.
However, as an upper trough approaches the area from the northwest
as well as a low pressure system ejecting out of Texas and phasing
in with the NW system, we`ll be caught somewhere in the middle. Out
ahead of a frontal boundary diving down late Sunday, PWATs and
isentropic lifting will be on the increase, supporting more
widespread rain chances with higher QPF amounts possible as well.

With this much warmer air invading the area, temperatures will
return to near normal for this time of year through Sunday. As
alluded to, tonight will be the last night through the weekend of
below freezing temperatures, although some locations in northern MO
tomorrow night could still be flirting with the freezing mark.
However, any precip that falls through the weekend (other than early
tomorrow morning) should be in liquid, non-freezing form.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The weekend system moves out of the CWA with the bulk of the precip
ending Sunday evening with only a slight chance of lingering precip
during the day on Monday and Monday evening. In the wake of the
trough relatively cool air advects into the region under deep layer
northwest flow creating below normal high temperatures through the
week, but not as cold as the recent cold snap we experienced this
past week or so. NWP ensemble solutions are divergent heading toward
Thanksgiving insofar as precip chances with the majority of
solutions being dry. Thus I kept the far extended periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210538
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1138 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

To start off in the short-term, benign conditions will continue to
prevail as surface high pressure slowly migrates off toward the east
through tonight. Behind it and with 850mb ridging centered off of
the Carolina-Florida coastline, southerly flow will commence across
MO/eastern KS, allowing for moist, WAA to kick in tomorrow. Model
soundings indicate enough low-level moisture advecting in early
Friday morning for low clouds and possibly drizzle/freezing
drizzle to hang over much of the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area. At this time, confidence remains relatively low of
enough moisture being able to advect in early enough Friday
morning for the below freezing temps to combine with the drizzle
potential to create freezing drizzle. However, indications are
there that this scenario may end up playing out so have continued
to mention this in the forecast, although in terms of impacts, if
freezing drizzle does occur, look to remain on the low side.

With upper-level support/a couple of vort maxes pushing north
through the forecast area tomorrow through overnight Friday, precip
chances lift north, overspreading much of the forecast area late in
the day. High-res models keep tomorrow through early Saturday`s
activity on the showery side and given the amount of mid- to
upper-level dry air remaining in place through Sunday, am agreeing
that the rain will be more hit and miss rather than widespread.
However, as an upper trough approaches the area from the northwest
as well as a low pressure system ejecting out of Texas and phasing
in with the NW system, we`ll be caught somewhere in the middle. Out
ahead of a frontal boundary diving down late Sunday, PWATs and
isentropic lifting will be on the increase, supporting more
widespread rain chances with higher QPF amounts possible as well.

With this much warmer air invading the area, temperatures will
return to near normal for this time of year through Sunday. As
alluded to, tonight will be the last night through the weekend of
below freezing temperatures, although some locations in northern MO
tomorrow night could still be flirting with the freezing mark.
However, any precip that falls through the weekend (other than early
tomorrow morning) should be in liquid, non-freezing form.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The weekend system moves out of the CWA with the bulk of the precip
ending Sunday evening with only a slight chance of lingering precip
during the day on Monday and Monday evening. In the wake of the
trough relatively cool air advects into the region under deep layer
northwest flow creating below normal high temperatures through the
week, but not as cold as the recent cold snap we experienced this
past week or so. NWP ensemble solutions are divergent heading toward
Thanksgiving insofar as precip chances with the majority of
solutions being dry. Thus I kept the far extended periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
539 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

To start off in the short-term, benign conditions will continue to
prevail as surface high pressure slowly migrates off toward the east
through tonight. Behind it and with 850mb ridging centered off of
the Carolina-Florida coastline, southerly flow will commence across
MO/eastern KS, allowing for moist, WAA to kick in tomorrow. Model
soundings indicate enough low-level moisture advecting in early
Friday morning for low clouds and possibly drizzle/freezing
drizzle to hang over much of the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area. At this time, confidence remains relatively low of
enough moisture being able to advect in early enough Friday
morning for the below freezing temps to combine with the drizzle
potential to create freezing drizzle. However, indications are
there that this scenario may end up playing out so have continued
to mention this in the forecast, although in terms of impacts, if
freezing drizzle does occur, look to remain on the low side.

With upper-level support/a couple of vort maxes pushing north
through the forecast area tomorrow through overnight Friday, precip
chances lift north, overspreading much of the forecast area late in
the day. High-res models keep tomorrow through early Saturday`s
activity on the showery side and given the amount of mid- to
upper-level dry air remaining in place through Sunday, am agreeing
that the rain will be more hit and miss rather than widespread.
However, as an upper trough approaches the area from the northwest
as well as a low pressure system ejecting out of Texas and phasing
in with the NW system, we`ll be caught somewhere in the middle. Out
ahead of a frontal boundary diving down late Sunday, PWATs and
isentropic lifting will be on the increase, supporting more
widespread rain chances with higher QPF amounts possible as well.

With this much warmer air invading the area, temperatures will
return to near normal for this time of year through Sunday. As
alluded to, tonight will be the last night through the weekend of
below freezing temperatures, although some locations in northern MO
tomorrow night could still be flirting with the freezing mark.
However, any precip that falls through the weekend (other than early
tomorrow morning) should be in liquid, non-freezing form.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The weekend system moves out of the CWA with the bulk of the precip
ending Sunday evening with only a slight chance of lingering precip
during the day on Monday and Monday evening. In the wake of the
trough relatively cool air advects into the region under deep layer
northwest flow creating below normal high temperatures through the
week, but not as cold as the recent cold snap we experienced this
past week or so. NWP ensemble solutions are divergent heading toward
Thanksgiving insofar as precip chances with the majority of
solutions being dry. Thus I kept the far extended periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail through Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Will begin to see cloud cover edge its way over the
terminals in the morning hours with precipitation occurring mainly in
the afternoon. Spotty showers in the afternoon hours could bring
about momentary restricted visibilities and ceilings. Have held off
including chances of freezing drizzle in the morning hours due to dry
low- levels. Will monitor this, but confidence in occurrence is low
at this point.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
539 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

To start off in the short-term, benign conditions will continue to
prevail as surface high pressure slowly migrates off toward the east
through tonight. Behind it and with 850mb ridging centered off of
the Carolina-Florida coastline, southerly flow will commence across
MO/eastern KS, allowing for moist, WAA to kick in tomorrow. Model
soundings indicate enough low-level moisture advecting in early
Friday morning for low clouds and possibly drizzle/freezing
drizzle to hang over much of the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area. At this time, confidence remains relatively low of
enough moisture being able to advect in early enough Friday
morning for the below freezing temps to combine with the drizzle
potential to create freezing drizzle. However, indications are
there that this scenario may end up playing out so have continued
to mention this in the forecast, although in terms of impacts, if
freezing drizzle does occur, look to remain on the low side.

With upper-level support/a couple of vort maxes pushing north
through the forecast area tomorrow through overnight Friday, precip
chances lift north, overspreading much of the forecast area late in
the day. High-res models keep tomorrow through early Saturday`s
activity on the showery side and given the amount of mid- to
upper-level dry air remaining in place through Sunday, am agreeing
that the rain will be more hit and miss rather than widespread.
However, as an upper trough approaches the area from the northwest
as well as a low pressure system ejecting out of Texas and phasing
in with the NW system, we`ll be caught somewhere in the middle. Out
ahead of a frontal boundary diving down late Sunday, PWATs and
isentropic lifting will be on the increase, supporting more
widespread rain chances with higher QPF amounts possible as well.

With this much warmer air invading the area, temperatures will
return to near normal for this time of year through Sunday. As
alluded to, tonight will be the last night through the weekend of
below freezing temperatures, although some locations in northern MO
tomorrow night could still be flirting with the freezing mark.
However, any precip that falls through the weekend (other than early
tomorrow morning) should be in liquid, non-freezing form.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The weekend system moves out of the CWA with the bulk of the precip
ending Sunday evening with only a slight chance of lingering precip
during the day on Monday and Monday evening. In the wake of the
trough relatively cool air advects into the region under deep layer
northwest flow creating below normal high temperatures through the
week, but not as cold as the recent cold snap we experienced this
past week or so. NWP ensemble solutions are divergent heading toward
Thanksgiving insofar as precip chances with the majority of
solutions being dry. Thus I kept the far extended periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail through Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Will begin to see cloud cover edge its way over the
terminals in the morning hours with precipitation occurring mainly in
the afternoon. Spotty showers in the afternoon hours could bring
about momentary restricted visibilities and ceilings. Have held off
including chances of freezing drizzle in the morning hours due to dry
low- levels. Will monitor this, but confidence in occurrence is low
at this point.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 202143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

To start off in the short-term, benign conditions will continue to
prevail as surface high pressure slowly migrates off toward the east
through tonight. Behind it and with 850mb ridging centered off of
the Carolina-Florida coastline, southerly flow will commence across
MO/eastern KS, allowing for moist, WAA to kick in tomorrow. Model
soundings indicate enough low-level moisture advecting in early
Friday morning for low clouds and possibly drizzle/freezing
drizzle to hang over much of the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area. At this time, confidence remains relatively low of
enough moisture being able to advect in early enough Friday
morning for the below freezing temps to combine with the drizzle
potential to create freezing drizzle. However, indications are
there that this scenario may end up playing out so have continued
to mention this in the forecast, although in terms of impacts, if
freezing drizzle does occur, look to remain on the low side.

With upper-level support/a couple of vort maxes pushing north
through the forecast area tomorrow through overnight Friday, precip
chances lift north, overspreading much of the forecast area late in
the day. High-res models keep tomorrow through early Saturday`s
activity on the showery side and given the amount of mid- to
upper-level dry air remaining in place through Sunday, am agreeing
that the rain will be more hit and miss rather than widespread.
However, as an upper trough approaches the area from the northwest
as well as a low pressure system ejecting out of Texas and phasing
in with the NW system, we`ll be caught somewhere in the middle. Out
ahead of a frontal boundary diving down late Sunday, PWATs and
isentropic lifting will be on the increase, supporting more
widespread rain chances with higher QPF amounts possible as well.

With this much warmer air invading the area, temperatures will
return to near normal for this time of year through Sunday. As
alluded to, tonight will be the last night through the weekend of
below freezing temperatures, although some locations in northern MO
tomorrow night could still be flirting with the freezing mark.
However, any precip that falls through the weekend (other than early
tomorrow morning) should be in liquid, non-freezing form.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The weekend system moves out of the CWA with the bulk of the precip
ending Sunday evening with only a slight chance of lingering precip
during the day on Monday and Monday evening. In the wake of the
trough relatively cool air advects into the region under deep layer
northwest flow creating below normal high temperatures through the
week, but not as cold as the recent cold snap we experienced this
past week or so. NWP ensemble solutions are divergent heading toward
Thanksgiving insofar as precip chances with the majority of
solutions being dry. Thus I kept the far extended periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Through tonight, VFR conditions will prevail with relatively light
winds (less than 10 knots) out of the NE, some cirrus streaming
overhead. These benign conditions are in thanks to surface high
pressure currently overhead, but will shifting off toward the east
as the day progresses. Overnight, winds will begin to increase
from out of the SE with lower-level clouds thickening by the pre-
dawn hours. For tomorrow morning, could see some drizzle at the
TAF sites, with better drizzle chances possible at IXD, MCI, and
MKC. Have gone with MVFR conditions for now until a better handle
can be gripped on how it will unravel Friday morning. One other
consideration will be how cold the temperatures in the morning
hours will be.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

To start off in the short-term, benign conditions will continue to
prevail as surface high pressure slowly migrates off toward the east
through tonight. Behind it and with 850mb ridging centered off of
the Carolina-Florida coastline, southerly flow will commence across
MO/eastern KS, allowing for moist, WAA to kick in tomorrow. Model
soundings indicate enough low-level moisture advecting in early
Friday morning for low clouds and possibly drizzle/freezing
drizzle to hang over much of the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area. At this time, confidence remains relatively low of
enough moisture being able to advect in early enough Friday
morning for the below freezing temps to combine with the drizzle
potential to create freezing drizzle. However, indications are
there that this scenario may end up playing out so have continued
to mention this in the forecast, although in terms of impacts, if
freezing drizzle does occur, look to remain on the low side.

With upper-level support/a couple of vort maxes pushing north
through the forecast area tomorrow through overnight Friday, precip
chances lift north, overspreading much of the forecast area late in
the day. High-res models keep tomorrow through early Saturday`s
activity on the showery side and given the amount of mid- to
upper-level dry air remaining in place through Sunday, am agreeing
that the rain will be more hit and miss rather than widespread.
However, as an upper trough approaches the area from the northwest
as well as a low pressure system ejecting out of Texas and phasing
in with the NW system, we`ll be caught somewhere in the middle. Out
ahead of a frontal boundary diving down late Sunday, PWATs and
isentropic lifting will be on the increase, supporting more
widespread rain chances with higher QPF amounts possible as well.

With this much warmer air invading the area, temperatures will
return to near normal for this time of year through Sunday. As
alluded to, tonight will be the last night through the weekend of
below freezing temperatures, although some locations in northern MO
tomorrow night could still be flirting with the freezing mark.
However, any precip that falls through the weekend (other than early
tomorrow morning) should be in liquid, non-freezing form.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The weekend system moves out of the CWA with the bulk of the precip
ending Sunday evening with only a slight chance of lingering precip
during the day on Monday and Monday evening. In the wake of the
trough relatively cool air advects into the region under deep layer
northwest flow creating below normal high temperatures through the
week, but not as cold as the recent cold snap we experienced this
past week or so. NWP ensemble solutions are divergent heading toward
Thanksgiving insofar as precip chances with the majority of
solutions being dry. Thus I kept the far extended periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Through tonight, VFR conditions will prevail with relatively light
winds (less than 10 knots) out of the NE, some cirrus streaming
overhead. These benign conditions are in thanks to surface high
pressure currently overhead, but will shifting off toward the east
as the day progresses. Overnight, winds will begin to increase
from out of the SE with lower-level clouds thickening by the pre-
dawn hours. For tomorrow morning, could see some drizzle at the
TAF sites, with better drizzle chances possible at IXD, MCI, and
MKC. Have gone with MVFR conditions for now until a better handle
can be gripped on how it will unravel Friday morning. One other
consideration will be how cold the temperatures in the morning
hours will be.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 201741
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The main concern in the short term continues to be the small
potential window for freezing drizzle on Friday morning. Beyond that
there will be the potential for light rain from Friday through the
weekend.

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure resides over the area
with its axis extending from North Dakota southeastward through the
local area and to the Gulf coast of Alabama. This ridge will remain
in control over the area during the day as it moves very slowly
eastward through the day. This will provide for sunny skies but,
weak mixing will keep highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. High
pressure will remain in control over the area early tonight before
finally shifting eastward into the Ohio River Valley. After
midnight, a southwesterly 30-40kt LLJ across the southern Plains
will begin advecting low level moisture into the region. Models
continue to trend slower with moisture returning northward into the
area. However, models typically tend to be too slow with WAA so have
moisture reaching the area by 09Z-12Z. The airmass in place will be
sub-freezing however temperatures should warm quickly as cloud cover
builds into the area. There however, may be a brief period where
precipitation may fall into freezing air. The good news is there is
no lift associated with this moisture so any precip that does occur
will fall in the form of light freezing drizzle. This will occur
mainly south of 50 highway. If the moisture remains delayed as
models suggest, temperatures would have enough time to move above
freezing on Friday and any precipitation would start as liquid
drizzle. Low level moisture will continued to be transported to the
area on the  continued low level jet. This will continue light rain
and drizzle chances on the day Friday. This will also allow warmer
air to stream into the region and highs will rise into the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain nearly steady Friday night as
cloud cover and continued WAA will keep temperatures in the mid 30s
to mid 40s as light rain and drizzle continue.

Saturday an upper level trough will move out of the southwestern
CONUS into Texas. A lead upper level shortwave ejecting out ahead of
this trough will produce yet another round of light rain across the
CWA. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday
night the upper level trough will move into the Ozarks providing the
best lift during the period to pick up modest rainfall totals of a
quarter to half an inch especially across the southeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Storm system responsible for weekend rainfall to be exiting to our
northeast Sunday night with rain gradually coming to an end early
Monday morning. Later in the day...models continue to suggest a
secondary cold front will move south over the area as another strong
shortwave rotates over the region. A fair amount of questions still
remain to the amount of precip expected with this secondary boundary
as the GFS and Canadian-GEM remain fairly dry as compared to their
European counterpart. In any event...will leave slgt chc to chc pops
going for eastern portions of the fcst area. Beyond this...fcst
uncertainty increases dramatically as both GFS and ECMWF solutions
quickly become out of phase with one another. The former solution
maintains weak longwave ridging over the American West by midweek while
the latter shows a strong upper trough dropping through the
Intermountain West. Considering the amount of uncertainty in the
extended time frame...have held off on making significant changes
until model trends become better established.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Through tonight, VFR conditions will prevail with relatively light
winds (less than 10 knots) out of the NE, some cirrus streaming
overhead. These benign conditions are in thanks to surface high
pressure currently overhead, but will shifting off toward the east
as the day progresses. Overnight, winds will begin to increase
from out of the SE with lower-level clouds thickening by the pre-
dawn hours. For tomorrow morning, could see some drizzle at the
TAF sites, with better drizzle chances possible at IXD, MCI, and
MKC. Have gone with MVFR conditions for now until a better handle
can be gripped on how it will unravel Friday morning. One other
consideration will be how cold the temperatures in the morning
hours will be.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 201741
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The main concern in the short term continues to be the small
potential window for freezing drizzle on Friday morning. Beyond that
there will be the potential for light rain from Friday through the
weekend.

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure resides over the area
with its axis extending from North Dakota southeastward through the
local area and to the Gulf coast of Alabama. This ridge will remain
in control over the area during the day as it moves very slowly
eastward through the day. This will provide for sunny skies but,
weak mixing will keep highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. High
pressure will remain in control over the area early tonight before
finally shifting eastward into the Ohio River Valley. After
midnight, a southwesterly 30-40kt LLJ across the southern Plains
will begin advecting low level moisture into the region. Models
continue to trend slower with moisture returning northward into the
area. However, models typically tend to be too slow with WAA so have
moisture reaching the area by 09Z-12Z. The airmass in place will be
sub-freezing however temperatures should warm quickly as cloud cover
builds into the area. There however, may be a brief period where
precipitation may fall into freezing air. The good news is there is
no lift associated with this moisture so any precip that does occur
will fall in the form of light freezing drizzle. This will occur
mainly south of 50 highway. If the moisture remains delayed as
models suggest, temperatures would have enough time to move above
freezing on Friday and any precipitation would start as liquid
drizzle. Low level moisture will continued to be transported to the
area on the  continued low level jet. This will continue light rain
and drizzle chances on the day Friday. This will also allow warmer
air to stream into the region and highs will rise into the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain nearly steady Friday night as
cloud cover and continued WAA will keep temperatures in the mid 30s
to mid 40s as light rain and drizzle continue.

Saturday an upper level trough will move out of the southwestern
CONUS into Texas. A lead upper level shortwave ejecting out ahead of
this trough will produce yet another round of light rain across the
CWA. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday
night the upper level trough will move into the Ozarks providing the
best lift during the period to pick up modest rainfall totals of a
quarter to half an inch especially across the southeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Storm system responsible for weekend rainfall to be exiting to our
northeast Sunday night with rain gradually coming to an end early
Monday morning. Later in the day...models continue to suggest a
secondary cold front will move south over the area as another strong
shortwave rotates over the region. A fair amount of questions still
remain to the amount of precip expected with this secondary boundary
as the GFS and Canadian-GEM remain fairly dry as compared to their
European counterpart. In any event...will leave slgt chc to chc pops
going for eastern portions of the fcst area. Beyond this...fcst
uncertainty increases dramatically as both GFS and ECMWF solutions
quickly become out of phase with one another. The former solution
maintains weak longwave ridging over the American West by midweek while
the latter shows a strong upper trough dropping through the
Intermountain West. Considering the amount of uncertainty in the
extended time frame...have held off on making significant changes
until model trends become better established.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Through tonight, VFR conditions will prevail with relatively light
winds (less than 10 knots) out of the NE, some cirrus streaming
overhead. These benign conditions are in thanks to surface high
pressure currently overhead, but will shifting off toward the east
as the day progresses. Overnight, winds will begin to increase
from out of the SE with lower-level clouds thickening by the pre-
dawn hours. For tomorrow morning, could see some drizzle at the
TAF sites, with better drizzle chances possible at IXD, MCI, and
MKC. Have gone with MVFR conditions for now until a better handle
can be gripped on how it will unravel Friday morning. One other
consideration will be how cold the temperatures in the morning
hours will be.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 201118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
518 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The main concern in the short term continues to be the small
potential window for freezing drizzle on Friday morning. Beyond that
there will be the potential for light rain from Friday through the
weekend.

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure resides over the area
with its axis extending from North Dakota southeastward through the
local area and to the Gulf coast of Alabama. This ridge will remain
in control over the area during the day as it moves very slowly
eastward through the day. This will provide for sunny skies but,
weak mixing will keep highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. High
pressure will remain in control over the area early tonight before
finally shifting eastward into the Ohio River Valley. After
midnight, a southwesterly 30-40kt LLJ across the southern Plains
will begin advecting low level moisture into the region. Models
continue to trend slower with moisture returning northward into the
area. However, models typically tend to be too slow with WAA so have
moisture reaching the area by 09Z-12Z. The airmass in place will be
sub-freezing however temperatures should warm quickly as cloud cover
builds into the area. There however, may be a brief period where
precipitation may fall into freezing air. The good news is there is
no lift associated with this moisture so any precip that does occur
will fall in the form of light freezing drizzle. This will occur
mainly south of 50 highway. If the moisture remains delayed as
models suggest, temperatures would have enough time to move above
freezing on Friday and any precipitation would start as liquid
drizzle. Low level moisture will continued to be transported to the
area on the  continued low level jet. This will continue light rain
and drizzle chances on the day Friday. This will also allow warmer
air to stream into the region and highs will rise into the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain nearly steady Friday night as
cloud cover and continued WAA will keep temperatures in the mid 30s
to mid 40s as light rain and drizzle continue.

Saturday an upper level trough will move out of the southwestern
CONUS into Texas. A lead upper level shortwave ejecting out ahead of
this trough will produce yet another round of light rain across the
CWA. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday
night the upper level trough will move into the Ozarks providing the
best lift during the period to pick up modest rainfall totals of a
quarter to half an inch especially across the southeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Storm system responsible for weekend rainfall to be exiting to our
northeast Sunday night with rain gradually coming to an end early
Monday morning. Later in the day...models continue to suggest a
secondary cold front will move south over the area as another strong
shortwave rotates over the region. A fair amount of questions still
remain to the amount of precip expected with this secondary boundary
as the GFS and Canadian-GEM remain fairly dry as compared to their
European counterpart. In any event...will leave slgt chc to chc pops
going for eastern portions of the fcst area. Beyond this...fcst
uncertainty increases dramatically as both GFS and ECMWF solutions
quickly become out of phase with one another. The former solution
maintains weak longwave ridging over the American West by midweek while
the latter shows a strong upper trough dropping through the
Intermountain West. Considering the amount of uncertainty in the
extended time frame...have held off on making significant changes
until model trends become better established.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conds will prevail throughout the period with just few-sct high
clouds. High pres will be in control over the area through today
keeping winds lgt and vrb before picking up out of the E tonight
around 5kts. Bkn clouds around 4kft may move into IXD early tomorrow
morning but, otrw...MVFR stratus at the terminals will hold off
until after the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200949
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The main concern in the short term continues to be the small
potential window for freezing drizzle on Friday morning. Beyond that
there will be the potential for light rain from Friday through the
weekend.

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure resides over the area
with its axis extending from North Dakota southeastward through the
local area and to the Gulf coast of Alabama. This ridge will remain
in control over the area during the day as it moves very slowly
eastward through the day. This will provide for sunny skies but,
weak mixing will keep highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. High
pressure will remain in control over the area early tonight before
finally shifting eastward into the Ohio River Valley. After
midnight, a southwesterly 30-40kt LLJ across the southern Plains
will begin advecting low level moisture into the region. Models
continue to trend slower with moisture returning northward into the
area. However, models typically tend to be too slow with WAA so have
moisture reaching the area by 09Z-12Z. The airmass in place will be
sub-freezing however temperatures should warm quickly as cloud cover
builds into the area. There however, may be a brief period where
precipitation may fall into freezing air. The good news is there is
no lift associated with this moisture so any precip that does occur
will fall in the form of light freezing drizzle. This will occur
mainly south of 50 highway. If the moisture remains delayed as
models suggest, temperatures would have enough time to move above
freezing on Friday and any precipitation would start as liquid
drizzle. Low level moisture will continued to be transported to the
area on the  continued low level jet. This will continue light rain
and drizzle chances on the day Friday. This will also allow warmer
air to stream into the region and highs will rise into the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain nearly steady Friday night as
cloud cover and continued WAA will keep temperatures in the mid 30s
to mid 40s as light rain and drizzle continue.

Saturday an upper level trough will move out of the southwestern
CONUS into Texas. A lead upper level shortwave ejecting out ahead of
this trough will produce yet another round of light rain across the
CWA. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday
night the upper level trough will move into the Ozarks providing the
best lift during the period to pick up modest rainfall totals of a
quarter to half an inch especially across the southeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Storm system responsible for weekend rainfall to be exiting to our
northeast Sunday night with rain gradually coming to an end early
Monday morning. Later in the day...models continue to suggest a
secondary cold front will move south over the area as another strong
shortwave rotates over the region. A fair amount of questions still
remain to the amount of precip expected with this secondary boundary
as the GFS and Canadian-GEM remain fairly dry as compared to their
European counterpart. In any event...will leave slgt chc to chc pops
going for eastern portions of the fcst area. Beyond this...fcst
uncertainty increases dramatically as both GFS and ECMWF solutions
quickly become out of phase with one another. The former solution
maintains weak longwave ridging over the American West by midweek while
the latter shows a strong upper trough dropping through the
Intermountain West. Considering the amount of uncertainty in the
extended time frame...have held off on making significant changes
until model trends become better established.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Calm
winds will maintain a variable heading as shallow low-level clouds
will filter in overnight and linger through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Welsh









000
FXUS63 KEAX 200949
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The main concern in the short term continues to be the small
potential window for freezing drizzle on Friday morning. Beyond that
there will be the potential for light rain from Friday through the
weekend.

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure resides over the area
with its axis extending from North Dakota southeastward through the
local area and to the Gulf coast of Alabama. This ridge will remain
in control over the area during the day as it moves very slowly
eastward through the day. This will provide for sunny skies but,
weak mixing will keep highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. High
pressure will remain in control over the area early tonight before
finally shifting eastward into the Ohio River Valley. After
midnight, a southwesterly 30-40kt LLJ across the southern Plains
will begin advecting low level moisture into the region. Models
continue to trend slower with moisture returning northward into the
area. However, models typically tend to be too slow with WAA so have
moisture reaching the area by 09Z-12Z. The airmass in place will be
sub-freezing however temperatures should warm quickly as cloud cover
builds into the area. There however, may be a brief period where
precipitation may fall into freezing air. The good news is there is
no lift associated with this moisture so any precip that does occur
will fall in the form of light freezing drizzle. This will occur
mainly south of 50 highway. If the moisture remains delayed as
models suggest, temperatures would have enough time to move above
freezing on Friday and any precipitation would start as liquid
drizzle. Low level moisture will continued to be transported to the
area on the  continued low level jet. This will continue light rain
and drizzle chances on the day Friday. This will also allow warmer
air to stream into the region and highs will rise into the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain nearly steady Friday night as
cloud cover and continued WAA will keep temperatures in the mid 30s
to mid 40s as light rain and drizzle continue.

Saturday an upper level trough will move out of the southwestern
CONUS into Texas. A lead upper level shortwave ejecting out ahead of
this trough will produce yet another round of light rain across the
CWA. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday
night the upper level trough will move into the Ozarks providing the
best lift during the period to pick up modest rainfall totals of a
quarter to half an inch especially across the southeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Storm system responsible for weekend rainfall to be exiting to our
northeast Sunday night with rain gradually coming to an end early
Monday morning. Later in the day...models continue to suggest a
secondary cold front will move south over the area as another strong
shortwave rotates over the region. A fair amount of questions still
remain to the amount of precip expected with this secondary boundary
as the GFS and Canadian-GEM remain fairly dry as compared to their
European counterpart. In any event...will leave slgt chc to chc pops
going for eastern portions of the fcst area. Beyond this...fcst
uncertainty increases dramatically as both GFS and ECMWF solutions
quickly become out of phase with one another. The former solution
maintains weak longwave ridging over the American West by midweek while
the latter shows a strong upper trough dropping through the
Intermountain West. Considering the amount of uncertainty in the
extended time frame...have held off on making significant changes
until model trends become better established.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Calm
winds will maintain a variable heading as shallow low-level clouds
will filter in overnight and linger through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Welsh










000
FXUS63 KEAX 200949
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The main concern in the short term continues to be the small
potential window for freezing drizzle on Friday morning. Beyond that
there will be the potential for light rain from Friday through the
weekend.

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure resides over the area
with its axis extending from North Dakota southeastward through the
local area and to the Gulf coast of Alabama. This ridge will remain
in control over the area during the day as it moves very slowly
eastward through the day. This will provide for sunny skies but,
weak mixing will keep highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. High
pressure will remain in control over the area early tonight before
finally shifting eastward into the Ohio River Valley. After
midnight, a southwesterly 30-40kt LLJ across the southern Plains
will begin advecting low level moisture into the region. Models
continue to trend slower with moisture returning northward into the
area. However, models typically tend to be too slow with WAA so have
moisture reaching the area by 09Z-12Z. The airmass in place will be
sub-freezing however temperatures should warm quickly as cloud cover
builds into the area. There however, may be a brief period where
precipitation may fall into freezing air. The good news is there is
no lift associated with this moisture so any precip that does occur
will fall in the form of light freezing drizzle. This will occur
mainly south of 50 highway. If the moisture remains delayed as
models suggest, temperatures would have enough time to move above
freezing on Friday and any precipitation would start as liquid
drizzle. Low level moisture will continued to be transported to the
area on the  continued low level jet. This will continue light rain
and drizzle chances on the day Friday. This will also allow warmer
air to stream into the region and highs will rise into the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain nearly steady Friday night as
cloud cover and continued WAA will keep temperatures in the mid 30s
to mid 40s as light rain and drizzle continue.

Saturday an upper level trough will move out of the southwestern
CONUS into Texas. A lead upper level shortwave ejecting out ahead of
this trough will produce yet another round of light rain across the
CWA. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday
night the upper level trough will move into the Ozarks providing the
best lift during the period to pick up modest rainfall totals of a
quarter to half an inch especially across the southeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Storm system responsible for weekend rainfall to be exiting to our
northeast Sunday night with rain gradually coming to an end early
Monday morning. Later in the day...models continue to suggest a
secondary cold front will move south over the area as another strong
shortwave rotates over the region. A fair amount of questions still
remain to the amount of precip expected with this secondary boundary
as the GFS and Canadian-GEM remain fairly dry as compared to their
European counterpart. In any event...will leave slgt chc to chc pops
going for eastern portions of the fcst area. Beyond this...fcst
uncertainty increases dramatically as both GFS and ECMWF solutions
quickly become out of phase with one another. The former solution
maintains weak longwave ridging over the American West by midweek while
the latter shows a strong upper trough dropping through the
Intermountain West. Considering the amount of uncertainty in the
extended time frame...have held off on making significant changes
until model trends become better established.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Calm
winds will maintain a variable heading as shallow low-level clouds
will filter in overnight and linger through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Welsh









000
FXUS63 KEAX 200949
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The main concern in the short term continues to be the small
potential window for freezing drizzle on Friday morning. Beyond that
there will be the potential for light rain from Friday through the
weekend.

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure resides over the area
with its axis extending from North Dakota southeastward through the
local area and to the Gulf coast of Alabama. This ridge will remain
in control over the area during the day as it moves very slowly
eastward through the day. This will provide for sunny skies but,
weak mixing will keep highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. High
pressure will remain in control over the area early tonight before
finally shifting eastward into the Ohio River Valley. After
midnight, a southwesterly 30-40kt LLJ across the southern Plains
will begin advecting low level moisture into the region. Models
continue to trend slower with moisture returning northward into the
area. However, models typically tend to be too slow with WAA so have
moisture reaching the area by 09Z-12Z. The airmass in place will be
sub-freezing however temperatures should warm quickly as cloud cover
builds into the area. There however, may be a brief period where
precipitation may fall into freezing air. The good news is there is
no lift associated with this moisture so any precip that does occur
will fall in the form of light freezing drizzle. This will occur
mainly south of 50 highway. If the moisture remains delayed as
models suggest, temperatures would have enough time to move above
freezing on Friday and any precipitation would start as liquid
drizzle. Low level moisture will continued to be transported to the
area on the  continued low level jet. This will continue light rain
and drizzle chances on the day Friday. This will also allow warmer
air to stream into the region and highs will rise into the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain nearly steady Friday night as
cloud cover and continued WAA will keep temperatures in the mid 30s
to mid 40s as light rain and drizzle continue.

Saturday an upper level trough will move out of the southwestern
CONUS into Texas. A lead upper level shortwave ejecting out ahead of
this trough will produce yet another round of light rain across the
CWA. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday
night the upper level trough will move into the Ozarks providing the
best lift during the period to pick up modest rainfall totals of a
quarter to half an inch especially across the southeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Storm system responsible for weekend rainfall to be exiting to our
northeast Sunday night with rain gradually coming to an end early
Monday morning. Later in the day...models continue to suggest a
secondary cold front will move south over the area as another strong
shortwave rotates over the region. A fair amount of questions still
remain to the amount of precip expected with this secondary boundary
as the GFS and Canadian-GEM remain fairly dry as compared to their
European counterpart. In any event...will leave slgt chc to chc pops
going for eastern portions of the fcst area. Beyond this...fcst
uncertainty increases dramatically as both GFS and ECMWF solutions
quickly become out of phase with one another. The former solution
maintains weak longwave ridging over the American West by midweek while
the latter shows a strong upper trough dropping through the
Intermountain West. Considering the amount of uncertainty in the
extended time frame...have held off on making significant changes
until model trends become better established.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Calm
winds will maintain a variable heading as shallow low-level clouds
will filter in overnight and linger through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Welsh










000
FXUS63 KEAX 200504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1104 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Quiet conditions are expected over at least the next 36 hours as
northwest flow aloft begins to gradually shift eastward and surface
high pressure drifts across the central - eastern Plains. Another
chilly night is expected as skies clear and surface winds diminish,
with lows expected to dip into the teens throughout the CWA. Highs
tomorrow will remain below normal but a bit warmer than previous
days due to more abundant sunshine but weak mixing.

As the high departs Thursday night, southerly flow will begin to
increase ahead of a developing system in the desert Southwest,
allowing moisture to surge into the region by Friday morning. Patchy
freezing drizzle is still possible early Friday morning as this
moisture filters over subfreezing surface temperatures, but models
are a little slower with moisture arrival and may hold off until
surface temperatures are able to warm above the freezing mark. For
now, have kept a mention of patchy freezing drizzle prior to 10 AM
Friday south of I-70, but do not anticipate any real impacts at this
time.

The system over the desert SW will lift up into the southern Plains
by Saturday and into Missouri by Sunday, bringing with it several
rounds of rain showers from Friday afternoon through Sunday night.
The best chances for rain and highest potential rainfall amounts
will be across southeastern portions of the forecast area, but most
areas should see at least some isolated showers this weekend. MUCAPE
values are at a maximum around ~30 J/kg in far southeastern portions
of the CWA so have elected not to mention a possibility of thunder
in the forecast, but one or two rumbles of thunder are not
completely out of the question in central MO on Saturday. Highs are
still expected to reach the 50s both Saturday and Sunday as warm air
advects ahead of the trough, which will be the warmest conditions
seen since November 10th.

Another system will drop out of the northern Plains on Sunday,
driving a surface cold front through the CWA by Sunday afternoon or
evening, and then eventually merging with the SW system over eastern
MO. Cold air will begin to wrap in behind the systems as they join
forces late this weekend, but should not arrive in MO until Monday
when most moisture has swept eastward out of the region. A few snow
showers are possible Monday as the cold air arrives and very limited
moisture wraps around the back side of the low, but warm ground and
light QPF should prevent any snow accumulation.

Model agreement is still very poor in the wake of the weekend`s
system, so have tapered precipitation chances off Monday night and
not reintroduced any PoPs for the remainder of the forecast period.
Temperatures will drop early next week, but any recovery back to
near normal temperatures and/or any potential for additional
precipitation remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Calm
winds will maintain a variable heading as shallow low-level clouds
will filter in overnight and linger through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh








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