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000
FXUS63 KEAX 281122
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period,
and winds will gradually increase out of the southwest this morning,
gusting to 20 to 25 kts during the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 281122
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period,
and winds will gradually increase out of the southwest this morning,
gusting to 20 to 25 kts during the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280857
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle with clr skies overnight
giving way to sct cirrus tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the
south tonight btn 7-12kts before veering to the SW tomorrow morning
and increasing to 10-15kts with possible gusts to 20kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280857
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle with clr skies overnight
giving way to sct cirrus tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the
south tonight btn 7-12kts before veering to the SW tomorrow morning
and increasing to 10-15kts with possible gusts to 20kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1112 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle with clr skies overnight
giving way to sct cirrus tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the
south tonight btn 7-12kts before veering to the SW tomorrow morning
and increasing to 10-15kts with possible gusts to 20kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73










000
FXUS63 KEAX 272312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
512 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF period with sct mid-lvl clouds
giving way to clr skies late tonight. Otrw...expect just sct high
cirrus thru the day tomorrow. Winds will be out of the SE tonight
around 10kts and will veer to the south after midnight. Tomorrow
morning winds will cont to veer to the SW and increase to around
15kts with a few gusts to around 20kts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
512 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF period with sct mid-lvl clouds
giving way to clr skies late tonight. Otrw...expect just sct high
cirrus thru the day tomorrow. Winds will be out of the SE tonight
around 10kts and will veer to the south after midnight. Tomorrow
morning winds will cont to veer to the SW and increase to around
15kts with a few gusts to around 20kts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 272116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Mid-level
clouds will remain in place through much of Thursday prior to
scattering out overnight. Winds will vary initially while
becoming southeasterly and increasing slightly with time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Mid-level
clouds will remain in place through much of Thursday prior to
scattering out overnight. Winds will vary initially while
becoming southeasterly and increasing slightly with time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271703
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Mid-level
clouds will remain in place through much of Thursday prior to
scattering out overnight. Winds will vary initially while
becoming southeasterly and increasing slightly with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271703
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Mid-level
clouds will remain in place through much of Thursday prior to
scattering out overnight. Winds will vary initially while
becoming southeasterly and increasing slightly with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR conditions should be ending shortly at terminals, likely prior
to 15Z, with a return to VFR thereafter. Another wave of stratus
between 6-8kft will move overhead later this morning into early
afternoon. Winds will switch from northerly to southerly by mid
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR conditions should be ending shortly at terminals, likely prior
to 15Z, with a return to VFR thereafter. Another wave of stratus
between 6-8kft will move overhead later this morning into early
afternoon. Winds will switch from northerly to southerly by mid
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270912
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
312 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270912
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
312 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1116 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1116 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern for aviators for the 00Z TAF will be MVFR cigs thru the
first half of the period. Cigs right about 2kft this evening will
sink overnight and remain MVFR thru 11Z-12Z. NAM bufr soundings keep
MVFR cigs at the terminals thru 19Z-20Z tomorrow however that seems
bullish considering the back edge of MVFR cigs is not far to the west
and high pressure will be building into the region tomorrow morning.
Otrw...expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds tomorrow morning before giving
way to just sct high clouds tomorow afternoon. Winds will remain out
of the NW around 10kts tonight before dmshg overnight. Winds may even
remain gusty for the first hour of the TAF period so have included a
TEMPO grp to account for that. High pressure will build into the area
tomorrow morning and winds will become lgt and vrb before picking up
from the SE btn 5-10kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
255 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period until early Thursday
morning. Cloud deck in place will remain more or less stationary
until finally pushing eastward toward the end of the period. Gusty
NW winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon as ceilings
gradually improve overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
255 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period until early Thursday
morning. Cloud deck in place will remain more or less stationary
until finally pushing eastward toward the end of the period. Gusty
NW winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon as ceilings
gradually improve overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1114 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Today/Tonight: Forecast looks on track for the next 12 hours.
Currently, water vapor and radar imagery shows a well-defined
clipper system centered over western Iowa. With increasing ascent,
radar returns have blossomed over the past couple of hours, with
precipitation spreading into much of northwest Missouri and Iowa. As
anticipated, temperature profiles along the I-29 corridor have
yielded a mix of rain and snow, with surface observations reporting
light snow over much of Iowa stretching into north central Missouri.
Through mid-morning, portions of eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri should expect a rain-snow mix, whereas areas further east
in the cold air over north central and northeast Missouri should see
primarily snow. For areas in the colder air of north central and
northeast Missouri, total snowfall accumulations should average
between 0.5" to 1" of snow before noon. Little to no accumulation is
expected outside of those geographical areas, thanks in part to
relatively warm surface temperatures. As the upper disturbance moves
through the region, a suite of models suggest light precipitation
may redevelop late this morning into the afternoon over the eastern
half of the CWA. With slightly warmer air in the lowest couple
thousand feet by this afternoon along with some loss in ice
introduction in the cloud layer, higher uncertainty exists with
precipitation type, with a rain-snow mix the most likely scenario.
Regardless, little to no additional accumulation is anticipated upon
the exit of the initial wave of precipitation this morning.
Precipitation should quickly exit the forecast area by late this
afternoon or early evening, with some cloud cover thinning over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Lows tonight will be chilly,
with temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s.

Thursday: One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region and the pesky longwave trough slowly shifts east.
Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper 20s
northeast to near 40 southwestern CWA, with dry weather prevailing.
Lows Thursday night will fall into the 20s areawide.

Friday/Saturday: On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive
warm air advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading
eastward. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return early on Friday. The end result is a
quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in
the upper 40s to upper 50s on Friday. The warmest day is expected on
Saturday with highs reaching the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day
period of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities.

Extended: Models diverge on the speed of a cold front projected to
move through the area on Sunday. This will have potential affects on
forecast high temperatures. Currently went closer to the ECMWF
solution, but any slower trend may yield a slightly warmer day on
Sunday. Similar model challenges continue into early next week.
While Monday looks quite cold with below normal temperatures,
Tuesdays temperatures remain in question depending on the frontal
progression southward as well as the aggressiveness of warm air
advection across the Plains in the wake of surface high pressure and
in advance of the next upper disturbance. Carried some chances of
showers Tuesday night into Wednesday with aforementioned warm air
advection regime, but overall confidence on a particular scenario
remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period until early Thursday
morning. Cloud deck in place will remain more or less stationary
until finally pushing eastward toward the end of the period. Gusty
NW winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon as ceilings
gradually improve overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1114 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Today/Tonight: Forecast looks on track for the next 12 hours.
Currently, water vapor and radar imagery shows a well-defined
clipper system centered over western Iowa. With increasing ascent,
radar returns have blossomed over the past couple of hours, with
precipitation spreading into much of northwest Missouri and Iowa. As
anticipated, temperature profiles along the I-29 corridor have
yielded a mix of rain and snow, with surface observations reporting
light snow over much of Iowa stretching into north central Missouri.
Through mid-morning, portions of eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri should expect a rain-snow mix, whereas areas further east
in the cold air over north central and northeast Missouri should see
primarily snow. For areas in the colder air of north central and
northeast Missouri, total snowfall accumulations should average
between 0.5" to 1" of snow before noon. Little to no accumulation is
expected outside of those geographical areas, thanks in part to
relatively warm surface temperatures. As the upper disturbance moves
through the region, a suite of models suggest light precipitation
may redevelop late this morning into the afternoon over the eastern
half of the CWA. With slightly warmer air in the lowest couple
thousand feet by this afternoon along with some loss in ice
introduction in the cloud layer, higher uncertainty exists with
precipitation type, with a rain-snow mix the most likely scenario.
Regardless, little to no additional accumulation is anticipated upon
the exit of the initial wave of precipitation this morning.
Precipitation should quickly exit the forecast area by late this
afternoon or early evening, with some cloud cover thinning over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Lows tonight will be chilly,
with temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s.

Thursday: One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region and the pesky longwave trough slowly shifts east.
Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper 20s
northeast to near 40 southwestern CWA, with dry weather prevailing.
Lows Thursday night will fall into the 20s areawide.

Friday/Saturday: On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive
warm air advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading
eastward. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return early on Friday. The end result is a
quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in
the upper 40s to upper 50s on Friday. The warmest day is expected on
Saturday with highs reaching the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day
period of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities.

Extended: Models diverge on the speed of a cold front projected to
move through the area on Sunday. This will have potential affects on
forecast high temperatures. Currently went closer to the ECMWF
solution, but any slower trend may yield a slightly warmer day on
Sunday. Similar model challenges continue into early next week.
While Monday looks quite cold with below normal temperatures,
Tuesdays temperatures remain in question depending on the frontal
progression southward as well as the aggressiveness of warm air
advection across the Plains in the wake of surface high pressure and
in advance of the next upper disturbance. Carried some chances of
showers Tuesday night into Wednesday with aforementioned warm air
advection regime, but overall confidence on a particular scenario
remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period until early Thursday
morning. Cloud deck in place will remain more or less stationary
until finally pushing eastward toward the end of the period. Gusty
NW winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon as ceilings
gradually improve overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Today/Tonight: Forecast looks on track for the next 12 hours.
Currently, water vapor and radar imagery shows a well-defined
clipper system centered over western Iowa. With increasing ascent,
radar returns have blossomed over the past couple of hours, with
precipitation spreading into much of northwest Missouri and Iowa. As
anticipated, temperature profiles along the I-29 corridor have
yielded a mix of rain and snow, with surface observations reporting
light snow over much of Iowa stretching into north central Missouri.
Through mid-morning, portions of eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri should expect a rain-snow mix, whereas areas further east
in the cold air over north central and northeast Missouri should see
primarily snow. For areas in the colder air of north central and
northeast Missouri, total snowfall accumulations should average
between 0.5" to 1" of snow before noon. Little to no accumulation is
expected outside of those geographical areas, thanks in part to
relatively warm surface temperatures. As the upper disturbance moves
through the region, a suite of models suggest light precipitation
may redevelop late this morning into the afternoon over the eastern
half of the CWA. With slightly warmer air in the lowest couple
thousand feet by this afternoon along with some loss in ice
introduction in the cloud layer, higher uncertainty exists with
precipitation type, with a rain-snow mix the most likely scenario.
Regardless, little to no additional accumulation is anticipated upon
the exit of the initial wave of precipitation this morning.
Precipitation should quickly exit the forecast area by late this
afternoon or early evening, with some cloud cover thinning over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Lows tonight will be chilly,
with temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s.

Thursday: One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region and the pesky longwave trough slowly shifts east.
Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper 20s
northeast to near 40 southwestern CWA, with dry weather prevailing.
Lows Thursday night will fall into the 20s areawide.

Friday/Saturday: On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive
warm air advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading
eastward. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return early on Friday. The end result is a
quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in
the upper 40s to upper 50s on Friday. The warmest day is expected on
Saturday with highs reaching the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day
period of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities.

Extended: Models diverge on the speed of a cold front projected to
move through the area on Sunday. This will have potential affects on
forecast high temperatures. Currently went closer to the ECMWF
solution, but any slower trend may yield a slightly warmer day on
Sunday. Similar model challenges continue into early next week.
While Monday looks quite cold with below normal temperatures,
Tuesdays temperatures remain in question depending on the frontal
progression southward as well as the aggressiveness of warm air
advection across the Plains in the wake of surface high pressure and
in advance of the next upper disturbance. Carried some chances of
showers Tuesday night into Wednesday with aforementioned warm air
advection regime, but overall confidence on a particular scenario
remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Complex aviation forecast with imminent large clearing pocket in the
wake of precipitation region. Expect to see areas of low-VFR stratus
the next few hours before MVFR ceilings develop/move into terminals.
Should see extensive period of MVFR ceilings thereafter before drier
air moves into the area later this evening. Could see a return to VFR
conditions by 04-06Z. As for precipitation, best chances have now
passed terminals, with only scattered showers/flurries expected
during the next few hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Today/Tonight: Forecast looks on track for the next 12 hours.
Currently, water vapor and radar imagery shows a well-defined
clipper system centered over western Iowa. With increasing ascent,
radar returns have blossomed over the past couple of hours, with
precipitation spreading into much of northwest Missouri and Iowa. As
anticipated, temperature profiles along the I-29 corridor have
yielded a mix of rain and snow, with surface observations reporting
light snow over much of Iowa stretching into north central Missouri.
Through mid-morning, portions of eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri should expect a rain-snow mix, whereas areas further east
in the cold air over north central and northeast Missouri should see
primarily snow. For areas in the colder air of north central and
northeast Missouri, total snowfall accumulations should average
between 0.5" to 1" of snow before noon. Little to no accumulation is
expected outside of those geographical areas, thanks in part to
relatively warm surface temperatures. As the upper disturbance moves
through the region, a suite of models suggest light precipitation
may redevelop late this morning into the afternoon over the eastern
half of the CWA. With slightly warmer air in the lowest couple
thousand feet by this afternoon along with some loss in ice
introduction in the cloud layer, higher uncertainty exists with
precipitation type, with a rain-snow mix the most likely scenario.
Regardless, little to no additional accumulation is anticipated upon
the exit of the initial wave of precipitation this morning.
Precipitation should quickly exit the forecast area by late this
afternoon or early evening, with some cloud cover thinning over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Lows tonight will be chilly,
with temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s.

Thursday: One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region and the pesky longwave trough slowly shifts east.
Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper 20s
northeast to near 40 southwestern CWA, with dry weather prevailing.
Lows Thursday night will fall into the 20s areawide.

Friday/Saturday: On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive
warm air advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading
eastward. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return early on Friday. The end result is a
quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in
the upper 40s to upper 50s on Friday. The warmest day is expected on
Saturday with highs reaching the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day
period of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities.

Extended: Models diverge on the speed of a cold front projected to
move through the area on Sunday. This will have potential affects on
forecast high temperatures. Currently went closer to the ECMWF
solution, but any slower trend may yield a slightly warmer day on
Sunday. Similar model challenges continue into early next week.
While Monday looks quite cold with below normal temperatures,
Tuesdays temperatures remain in question depending on the frontal
progression southward as well as the aggressiveness of warm air
advection across the Plains in the wake of surface high pressure and
in advance of the next upper disturbance. Carried some chances of
showers Tuesday night into Wednesday with aforementioned warm air
advection regime, but overall confidence on a particular scenario
remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Complex aviation forecast with imminent large clearing pocket in the
wake of precipitation region. Expect to see areas of low-VFR stratus
the next few hours before MVFR ceilings develop/move into terminals.
Should see extensive period of MVFR ceilings thereafter before drier
air moves into the area later this evening. Could see a return to VFR
conditions by 04-06Z. As for precipitation, best chances have now
passed terminals, with only scattered showers/flurries expected
during the next few hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260930
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Today/Tonight: Forecast looks on track for the next 12 hours.
Currently, water vapor and radar imagery shows a well-defined
clipper system centered over western Iowa. With increasing ascent,
radar returns have blossomed over the past couple of hours, with
precipitation spreading into much of northwest Missouri and Iowa. As
anticipated, temperature profiles along the I-29 corridor have
yielded a mix of rain and snow, with surface observations reporting
light snow over much of Iowa stretching into north central Missouri.
Through mid-morning, portions of eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri should expect a rain-snow mix, whereas areas further east
in the cold air over north central and northeast Missouri should see
primarily snow. For areas in the colder air of north central and
northeast Missouri, total snowfall accumulations should average
between 0.5" to 1" of snow before noon. Little to no accumulation is
expected outside of those geographical areas, thanks in part to
relatively warm surface temperatures. As the upper disturbance moves
through the region, a suite of models suggest light precipitation
may redevelop late this morning into the afternoon over the eastern
half of the CWA. With slightly warmer air in the lowest couple
thousand feet by this afternoon along with some loss in ice
introduction in the cloud layer, higher uncertainty exists with
precipitation type, with a rain-snow mix the most likely scenario.
Regardless, little to no additional accumulation is anticipated upon
the exit of the initial wave of precipitation this morning.
Precipitation should quickly exit the forecast area by late this
afternoon or early evening, with some cloud cover thinning over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Lows tonight will be chilly,
with temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s.

Thursday: One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region and the pesky longwave trough slowly shifts east.
Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper 20s
northeast to near 40 southwestern CWA, with dry weather prevailing.
Lows Thursday night will fall into the 20s areawide.

Friday/Saturday: On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive
warm air advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading
eastward. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return early on Friday. The end result is a
quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in
the upper 40s to upper 50s on Friday. The warmest day is expected on
Saturday with highs reaching the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day
period of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities.

Extended: Models diverge on the speed of a cold front projected to
move through the area on Sunday. This will have potential affects on
forecast high temperatures. Currently went closer to the ECMWF
solution, but any slower trend may yield a slightly warmer day on
Sunday. Similar model challenges continue into early next week.
While Monday looks quite cold with below normal temperatures,
Tuesdays temperatures remain in question depending on the frontal
progression southward as well as the aggressiveness of warm air
advection across the Plains in the wake of surface high pressure and
in advance of the next upper disturbance. Carried some chances of
showers Tuesday night into Wednesday with aforementioned warm air
advection regime, but overall confidence on a particular scenario
remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Mid lvl clouds have filtered into the terminals tonight ahead of a
cold front. Top down saturation will allow precipitation to form at
the terminals in the form of rain mixing with snow. No accumulation
is expected at the terminals as pcpn will be lgt and temps will
remain abv freezing. Pcpn will begin at the terminals btn 08Z-09Z
with a ovc cloud deck btn 3-4kft. A cold front will pass thru the
terminals btn 12Z-14Z veering winds from the SSW around 10kts to the
WNW as MVFR cigs build in behind the front. MVFR cigs will persist
thru the day before lifting out to around 5kft around 00Z. Winds will
also pick up out of the NW late this morning btn 15-20kts with gusts
up to 30kts until around sunset when it will diminish to around
10kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260529
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Mid lvl clouds have filtered into the terminals tonight ahead of a
cold front. Top down saturation will allow precipitation to form at
the terminals in the form of rain mixing with snow. No accumulation
is expected at the terminals as pcpn will be lgt and temps will
remain abv freezing. Pcpn will begin at the terminals btn 08Z-09Z
with a ovc cloud deck btn 3-4kft. A cold front will pass thru the
terminals btn 12Z-14Z veering winds from the SSW around 10kts to the
WNW as MVFR cigs build in behind the front. MVFR cigs will persist
thru the day before lifting out to around 5kft around 00Z. Winds will
also pick up out of the NW late this morning btn 15-20kts with gusts
up to 30kts until around sunset when it will diminish to around
10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260529
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Mid lvl clouds have filtered into the terminals tonight ahead of a
cold front. Top down saturation will allow precipitation to form at
the terminals in the form of rain mixing with snow. No accumulation
is expected at the terminals as pcpn will be lgt and temps will
remain abv freezing. Pcpn will begin at the terminals btn 08Z-09Z
with a ovc cloud deck btn 3-4kft. A cold front will pass thru the
terminals btn 12Z-14Z veering winds from the SSW around 10kts to the
WNW as MVFR cigs build in behind the front. MVFR cigs will persist
thru the day before lifting out to around 5kft around 00Z. Winds will
also pick up out of the NW late this morning btn 15-20kts with gusts
up to 30kts until around sunset when it will diminish to around
10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252336
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
536 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overcast high lvl clouds have begun to filter into the terminals
with bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds not far behind. Moisture should continue
to build top down through tonight with MVFR cigs and a rain snow mix
moving into the terminals btn 07Z-09Z. Precipitation will be light
and no accumulation is expected as temperatures will remain at or
above freezing through the overnight hours. A cold front will move
through the terminals btn 11Z-13Z veering winds from the SSW to the
NW around 10kts. MVFR cigs will lift to 3-4kft btn 15Z-16Z and winds
will pick up to 15-20kts with gusts to around 30kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252336
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
536 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overcast high lvl clouds have begun to filter into the terminals
with bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds not far behind. Moisture should continue
to build top down through tonight with MVFR cigs and a rain snow mix
moving into the terminals btn 07Z-09Z. Precipitation will be light
and no accumulation is expected as temperatures will remain at or
above freezing through the overnight hours. A cold front will move
through the terminals btn 11Z-13Z veering winds from the SSW to the
NW around 10kts. MVFR cigs will lift to 3-4kft btn 15Z-16Z and winds
will pick up to 15-20kts with gusts to around 30kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue into this evening before MVFR ceilings
move in later tonight. High clouds will increase in coverage through
the evening as a quick clipper system nears the region. Low clouds
will build area by 6-9Z with a rain/snow shower mix possible...little
to no accumulations are expected at the terminals. As the system
swings through winds will veer around to the northwest and become
gusty through the remainder of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue into this evening before MVFR ceilings
move in later tonight. High clouds will increase in coverage through
the evening as a quick clipper system nears the region. Low clouds
will build area by 6-9Z with a rain/snow shower mix possible...little
to no accumulations are expected at the terminals. As the system
swings through winds will veer around to the northwest and become
gusty through the remainder of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue into this evening before MVFR ceilings
move in later tonight. High clouds will increase in coverage through
the evening as a quick clipper system nears the region. Low clouds
will build area by 6-9Z with a rain/snow shower mix possible...little
to no accumulations are expected at the terminals. As the system
swings through winds will veer around to the northwest and become
gusty through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue into this evening before MVFR ceilings
move in later tonight. High clouds will increase in coverage through
the evening as a quick clipper system nears the region. Low clouds
will build area by 6-9Z with a rain/snow shower mix possible...little
to no accumulations are expected at the terminals. As the system
swings through winds will veer around to the northwest and become
gusty through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...PMM







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