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000
FXUS63 KEAX 240513
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Over all few changes were needed to the ongoing forecast. Still
expecting storms late tonight to move in from the west in response to
a progressive trough coming out of the Rockies. Some disagreement in
the various CAMs regarding timing. The latest (16Z) run of the HRRR
has weak activity out ahead of a cold front reaching far NE KS/NW MO
by 05Z while other models in the 09-12Z time frame associated with
storms firing along and just ahead of a cold front. Either way the
FCST reflects TSRA chances for much of the night. MUCAPE is rather
limited in the 700 J/kg while bulk shear values are >40 kts. Meaning
not expecting much in the way of any SVR storms yet the activity
should remain somewhat organized. Small hail, gusty winds and locally
heavy rain will be the theme. Tomorrow as the upper lvl trough moves
through the region the rain and storms will exit from west to east
clearly the CWA by mid afternoon.

Friday appears to be mild and dry before the next system for the
weekend. This system will be rather large and deep impacting much of
the CONUS. Saturday should be the nicer of the two weekend days with
perhaps scattered TSRA/SHRA and mild temps as we reside south of a
sharpening warm front. The various suite of NWP still differ on
where the warm front becomes established, but the GFS is now in
closer agreement with the EC in placing the front in southern IA by
Sunday leaving the CWA in a broad and moistening warm sector.
Storms are still expected for Sunday and Sunday night, but we are
too far out in time for specifics. However, the NWP paint a favorable
setup for SVR storms given able shear, and instability for Sunday
and into Monday... see SPC Day 4-8 Outlook for more info. The upper
level low will very slowly move through the region and should be out
of the area by TUE evening. In its wake very cold air (for late
April) will advect into the region during the day on TUE setting up
what could be a chilly TUE night / WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Isolated showers will continue to develop across the area between 06z
and 12z this morning ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. More
widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front
will push across the forecast area between 12z and 18z, then lighter
showers will gradually taper off from west to east this afternoon.
Northwest winds will briefly accelerate behind the front, but should
ease to around 10 kts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 232321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Over all few changes were needed to the ongoing forecast. Still
expecting storms late tonight to move in from the west in response to
a progressive trough coming out of the Rockies. Some disagreement in
the various CAMs regarding timing. The latest (16Z) run of the HRRR
has weak activity out ahead of a cold front reaching far NE KS/NW MO
by 05Z while other models in the 09-12Z time frame associated with
storms firing along and just ahead of a cold front. Either way the
FCST reflects TSRA chances for much of the night. MUCAPE is rather
limited in the 700 J/kg while bulk shear values are >40 kts. Meaning
not expecting much in the way of any SVR storms yet the activity
should remain somewhat organized. Small hail, gusty winds and locally
heavy rain will be the theme. Tomorrow as the upper lvl trough moves
through the region the rain and storms will exit from west to east
clearly the CWA by mid afternoon.

Friday appears to be mild and dry before the next system for the
weekend. This system will be rather large and deep impacting much of
the CONUS. Saturday should be the nicer of the two weekend days with
perhaps scattered TSRA/SHRA and mild temps as we reside south of a
sharpening warm front. The various suite of NWP still differ on
where the warm front becomes established, but the GFS is now in
closer agreement with the EC in placing the front in southern IA by
Sunday leaving the CWA in a broad and moistening warm sector.
Storms are still expected for Sunday and Sunday night, but we are
too far out in time for specifics. However, the NWP paint a favorable
setup for SVR storms given able shear, and instability for Sunday
and into Monday... see SPC Day 4-8 Outlook for more info. The upper
level low will very slowly move through the region and should be out
of the area by TUE evening. In its wake very cold air (for late
April) will advect into the region during the day on TUE setting up
what could be a chilly TUE night / WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Showers and thunderstorms currently over western Kansas and south
central Nebraska will gradually build eastward tonight, edging into
our western forecast area between 06z-09z. Ceilings will gradually
lower as storms spread across the region, falling to around 3 kft by
12z Thursday morning. Southeast winds will diminish slightly tonight
but should retain gusts between 15 to 20 kts, then will transition to
the northwest from late Thursday morning through early afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 231905
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
205 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Over all few changes were needed to the ongoing forecast. Still
expecting storms late tonight to move in from the west in response to
a progressive trough coming out of the Rockies. Some disagreement in
the various CAMs regarding timing. The latest (16Z) run of the HRRR
has weak activity out ahead of a cold front reaching far NE KS/NW MO
by 05Z while other models in the 09-12Z time frame associated with
storms firing along and just ahead of a cold front. Either way the
FCST reflects TSRA chances for much of the night. MUCAPE is rather
limited in the 700 J/kg while bulk shear values are >40 kts. Meaning
not expecting much in the way of any SVR storms yet the activity
should remain somewhat organized. Small hail, gusty winds and locally
heavy rain will be the theme. Tomorrow as the upper lvl trough moves
through the region the rain and storms will exit from west to east
clearly the CWA by mid afternoon.

Friday appears to be mild and dry before the next system for the
weekend. This system will be rather large and deep impacting much of
the CONUS. Saturday should be the nicer of the two weekend days with
perhaps scattered TSRA/SHRA and mild temps as we reside south of a
sharpening warm front. The various suite of NWP still differ on
where the warm front becomes established, but the GFS is now in
closer agreement with the EC in placing the front in southern IA by
Sunday leaving the CWA in a broad and moistening warm sector.
Storms are still expected for Sunday and Sunday night, but we are
too far out in time for specifics. However, the NWP paint a favorable
setup for SVR storms given able shear, and instability for Sunday
and into Monday... see SPC Day 4-8 Outlook for more info. The upper
level low will very slowly move through the region and should be out
of the area by TUE evening. In its wake very cold air (for late
April) will advect into the region during the day on TUE setting up
what could be a chilly TUE night / WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Ongoing scattered light showers are expected to taper off this
afternoon and should not have an adverse impact to CIGS and VIS. The
story for this afternoon and evening will be breezy southeast winds
gusting in the middle to upper 20 kts range. But otherwise VFR CIGS
and VIS are expected. Late overnight tonight a line of thunderstorms
are expected to impact the terminals. Have timed this to begin by 08Z
but that may be off an hour or so either side of 08Z. Surface winds
will shift near 12Z with the passage of a cold front along with
periods of SHRA through the morning. The activity should clear out
just beyond the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KEAX 231722
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Showers and an occasional brief thunderstorm have developed over
portions of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas as of early
this morning. It appears much of this activity is tied to a weak
upper disturbance, inferred from both water vapor imagery and model
depiction, in addition to warm air/moisture advection. Coverage is
expected to gradually increase some during the next few hours based
on high-resolution model guidance and this solution seems
reasonable. Forecast maximum instability through the vertical column
is very meager to none over the area through midday, and do not
expect much in the way of thunderstorm activity at this time, but
rather shallow, high-based convection in the form of scattered
showers. The highest probability of rainfall will remain over the
northwestern half of the CWA through the daylight hours. Temperatures
will be dependent on cloud cover, with the northeastern sections of
the forecast area cooler in the middle/upper 60s to the upper 70s in
more cloud-free southwestern areas.

A progressive trough, gradually becoming negatively-tilted, will
move through the central CONUS tonight. Robust convection is
expected to initially develop late this afternoon well to the west
of the CWA in the proximity of a cold front in central Nebraska and
a dryline over the High Plains. The front will quickly overtake much
of the dryline during the evening hours over Kansas, leading to
additional convective development. Models are in decent agreement in
bringing a complex of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast
area late tonight into Thursday morning. While severe weather is
expected well to the west of the area, conditions will become less
supportive for severe weather with eastward extent. As thunderstorms
approach the forecast area, a decrease in intensity is expected as
weak instability will be present (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg, SBCAPE < 50
J/kg), yet sufficient to support thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will
remain strong, so we will have to continue to monitor convective
evolution to the west later this evening. Many areas may receive up
to one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in
areas with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end
during Thursday afternoon from west to east as a cold front moves
through the area.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and emerge
into the Plains during the weekend. Models are in decent agreement
through much of the weekend with regards to the synoptic placement
of key features, but diverge by early next week. The theme continues
for an active weather pattern Saturday through Monday. Initial
chances for thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, as a warm front
lifts into the area and warm air advection increases. As the trough
moves into the Plains on Sunday, strong upper ascent and an
approaching pacific cold front will lead to increasing chances of
thunderstorms. While specifics cannot be accurately resolved this
far in advance, several signals suggest strong or severe weather
possible for portions of the forecast area on Sunday. As the upper
trough becomes nearly cut off over the mid Missouri Valley on
Monday, cooler and rainy conditions are expected. Exactly how cold
temperatures fall remains highly uncertain due to model differences
handling the upper pattern and subsequent cold air advection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Ongoing scattered light showers are expected to taper off this
afternoon and should not have an adverse impact to CIGS and VIS. The
story for this afternoon and evening will be breezy southeast winds
gusting in the middle to upper 20 kts range. But otherwise VFR CIGS
and VIS are expected. Late overnight tonight a line of thunderstorms
are expected to impact the terminals. Have timed this to begin by 08Z
but that may be off an hour or so either side of 08Z. Surface winds
will shift near 12Z with the passage of a cold front along with
periods of SHRA through the morning. The activity should clear out
just beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha








000
FXUS63 KEAX 231049
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
549 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Showers and an occasional brief thunderstorm have developed over
portions of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas as of early
this morning. It appears much of this activity is tied to a weak
upper disturbance, inferred from both water vapor imagery and model
depiction, in addition to warm air/moisture advection. Coverage is
expected to gradually increase some during the next few hours based
on high-resolution model guidance and this solution seems
reasonable. Forecast maximum instability through the vertical column
is very meager to none over the area through midday, and do not
expect much in the way of thunderstorm activity at this time, but
rather shallow, high-based convection in the form of scattered
showers. The highest probability of rainfall will remain over the
northwestern half of the CWA through the daylight hours. Temperatures
will be dependent on cloud cover, with the northeastern sections of
the forecast area cooler in the middle/upper 60s to the upper 70s in
more cloud-free southwestern areas.

A progressive trough, gradually becoming negatively-tilted, will
move through the central CONUS tonight. Robust convection is
expected to initially develop late this afternoon well to the west
of the CWA in the proximity of a cold front in central Nebraska and
a dryline over the High Plains. The front will quickly overtake much
of the dryline during the evening hours over Kansas, leading to
additional convective development. Models are in decent agreement in
bringing a complex of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast
area late tonight into Thursday morning. While severe weather is
expected well to the west of the area, conditions will become less
supportive for severe weather with eastward extent. As thunderstorms
approach the forecast area, a decrease in intensity is expected as
weak instability will be present (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg, SBCAPE < 50
J/kg), yet sufficient to support thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will
remain strong, so we will have to continue to monitor convective
evolution to the west later this evening. Many areas may receive up
to one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in
areas with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end
during Thursday afternoon from west to east as a cold front moves
through the area.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and emerge
into the Plains during the weekend. Models are in decent agreement
through much of the weekend with regards to the synoptic placement
of key features, but diverge by early next week. The theme continues
for an active weather pattern Saturday through Monday. Initial
chances for thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, as a warm front
lifts into the area and warm air advection increases. As the trough
moves into the Plains on Sunday, strong upper ascent and an
approaching pacific cold front will lead to increasing chances of
thunderstorms. While specifics cannot be accurately resolved this
far in advance, several signals suggest strong or severe weather
possible for portions of the forecast area on Sunday. As the upper
trough becomes nearly cut off over the mid Missouri Valley on
Monday, cooler and rainy conditions are expected. Exactly how cold
temperatures fall remains highly uncertain due to model differences
handling the upper pattern and subsequent cold air advection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Scattered
showers will move near/over terminals through mid-morning, with
higher probabilities at STJ/MCI, although no reduction in flight
categories expected. Southeasterly winds will become gusty prior to
or shortly after 15Z. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move
across terminals tonight, with probabilities greatly increasing after
06Z. Uncertainty to convective evolution precludes specific timing of
arrival at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 230829
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
329 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Showers and an occasional brief thunderstorm have developed over
portions of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas as of early
this morning. It appears much of this activity is tied to a weak
upper disturbance, inferred from both water vapor imagery and model
depiction, in addition to warm air/moisture advection. Coverage is
expected to gradually increase some during the next few hours based
on high-resolution model guidance and this solution seems
reasonable. Forecast maximum instability through the vertical column
is very meager to none over the area through midday, and do not
expect much in the way of thunderstorm activity at this time, but
rather shallow, high-based convection in the form of scattered
showers. The highest probability of rainfall will remain over the
northwestern half of the CWA through the daylight hours. Temperatures
will be dependent on cloud cover, with the northeastern sections of
the forecast area cooler in the middle/upper 60s to the upper 70s in
more cloud-free southwestern areas.

A progressive trough, gradually becoming negatively-tilted, will
move through the central CONUS tonight. Robust convection is
expected to initially develop late this afternoon well to the west
of the CWA in the proximity of a cold front in central Nebraska and
a dryline over the High Plains. The front will quickly overtake much
of the dryline during the evening hours over Kansas, leading to
additional convective development. Models are in decent agreement in
bringing a complex of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast
area late tonight into Thursday morning. While severe weather is
expected well to the west of the area, conditions will become less
supportive for severe weather with eastward extent. As thunderstorms
approach the forecast area, a decrease in intensity is expected as
weak instability will be present (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg, SBCAPE < 50
J/kg), yet sufficient to support thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will
remain strong, so we will have to continue to monitor convective
evolution to the west later this evening. Many areas may receive up
to one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in
areas with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end
during Thursday afternoon from west to east as a cold front moves
through the area.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and emerge
into the Plains during the weekend. Models are in decent agreement
through much of the weekend with regards to the synoptic placement
of key features, but diverge by early next week. The theme continues
for an active weather pattern Saturday through Monday. Initial
chances for thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, as a warm front
lifts into the area and warm air advection increases. As the trough
moves into the Plains on Sunday, strong upper ascent and an
approaching pacific cold front will lead to increasing chances of
thunderstorms. While specifics cannot be accurately resolved this
far in advance, several signals suggest strong or severe weather
possible for portions of the forecast area on Sunday. As the upper
trough becomes nearly cut off over the mid Missouri Valley on
Monday, cooler and rainy conditions are expected. Exactly how cold
temperatures fall remains highly uncertain due to model differences
handling the upper pattern and subsequent cold air advection.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the TAF period.
Light east southeast winds will increase out of the southeast between
12z-14z Wednesday, then will become sustained at 18 to 20 kts with
gusts between 25-30 kts during the afternoon. Winds will remain
sustained at 15 to 20 kts through at least 06z, but gustiness may
diminish a bit after sunset. A few isolated showers and weak,
embedded storms are possible across far northern Missouri and
northeast Kansas toward daybreak, but no significant visibility or
ceiling restrictions are expected.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 230448
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A rather nice evening is at hand with mild temps and light winds.
Late overnight an area of shallow showers and -TSRA are progged to
develop across far northern MO assoc with modest mid-lvl warm air
advection / upglide. Instability is very low so am not expecting any
severe storms. For tomorrow the main story will be the breezy
southerly winds and very warm temps that will develop, especially
across the western half of the CWA. The wind and temps are in
response to an approaching negatively tilted trough. More on this
feature below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

As the trough moves out on to the Plains thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of KS and NE and gradually move toward the CWA
Wed evening/night. By the time the complex reaches the CWA
instability is rather low but the shear is modest. Thus there could
be a few strong storms but not expecting widespread SVR. The complex slowly
moves across the CWA during the day on THR, ending west to east by
the mid afternoon.

FRI will be a transition day with mild temps ahead of a very deep
system that will impact the region through the rest of the fcst
period. As the next system approaches from the west the fcst gets
tricky insofar as timing of precip/storms. The GFS and EC are aligned
regarding the arrival of the trough and attendant upper low, but
differ in spatial placement. As such my confidence is high the CWA
should see periods of rain and storms starting on Saturday and
continuing into early next week, but my confidence is low concerning
specifics. Portions of the CWA could see decent rainfall amounts by
the time the system moves out late on TUE... upwards of 3 or 4 inches. As
for SVR storms the current NWP favors SUN over SAT as ample shear
and instability should be in place, but this is rather far out yet and
will become clearer as the week moves forward. The last item to note
will be very chilly temps TUE night behind the departing system. We
very well may see sub 32F temps WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the TAF period.
Light east southeast winds will increase out of the southeast between
12z-14z Wednesday, then will become sustained at 18 to 20 kts with
gusts between 25-30 kts during the afternoon. Winds will remain
sustained at 15 to 20 kts through at least 06z, but gustiness may
diminish a bit after sunset. A few isolated showers and weak,
embedded storms are possible across far northern Missouri and
northeast Kansas toward daybreak, but no significant visibility or
ceiling restrictions are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 222343
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A rather nice evening is at hand with mild temps and light winds.
Late overnight an area of shallow showers and -TSRA are progged to
develop across far northern MO assoc with modest mid-lvl warm air
advection / upglide. Instability is very low so am not expecting any
severe storms. For tomorrow the main story will be the breezy
southerly winds and very warm temps that will develop, especially
across the western half of the CWA. The wind and temps are in
response to an approaching negatively tilted trough. More on this
feature below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

As the trough moves out on to the Plains thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of KS and NE and gradually move toward the CWA
Wed evening/night. By the time the complex reaches the CWA
instability is rather low but the shear is modest. Thus there could
be a few strong storms but not expecting widespread SVR. The complex slowly
moves across the CWA during the day on THR, ending west to east by
the mid afternoon.

FRI will be a transition day with mild temps ahead of a very deep
system that will impact the region through the rest of the fcst
period. As the next system approaches from the west the fcst gets
tricky insofar as timing of precip/storms. The GFS and EC are aligned
regarding the arrival of the trough and attendant upper low, but
differ in spatial placement. As such my confidence is high the CWA
should see periods of rain and storms starting on Saturday and
continuing into early next week, but my confidence is low concerning
specifics. Portions of the CWA could see decent rainfall amounts by
the time the system moves out late on TUE... upwards of 3 or 4 inches. As
for SVR storms the current NWP favors SUN over SAT as ample shear
and instability should be in place, but this is rather far out yet and
will become clearer as the week moves forward. The last item to note
will be very chilly temps TUE night behind the departing system. We
very well may see sub 32F temps WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Cloud cover will gradually increase from this evening through the
overnight hours, but cloud bases should remain around or slightly
above 10 kft. Light easterly winds will drift to the southeast then
increase between 12z-18z Wednesday, reaching sustained speeds of 18
to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts during the afternoon. A few light
showers are possible across northern Missouri Wednesday morning;
however, the main rain/thunderstorm chances will hold off until
later Wednesday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221941
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
241 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A rather nice evening is at hand with mild temps and light winds.
Late overnight an area of shallow showers and -TSRA are progged to
develop across far northern MO assoc with modest mid-lvl warm air
advection / upglide. Instability is very low so am not expecting any
severe storms. For tomorrow the main story will be the breezy
southerly winds and very warm temps that will develop, especially
across the western half of the CWA. The wind and temps are in
response to an approaching negatively tilted trough. More on this
feature below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

As the trough moves out on to the Plains thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of KS and NE and gradually move toward the CWA
Wed evening/night. By the time the complex reaches the CWA
instability is rather low but the shear is modest. Thus there could
be a few strong storms but not expecting widespread SVR. The complex slowly
moves across the CWA during the day on THR, ending west to east by
the mid afternoon.

FRI will be a transition day with mild temps ahead of a very deep
system that will impact the region through the rest of the fcst
period. As the next system approaches from the west the fcst gets
tricky insofar as timing of precip/storms. The GFS and EC are aligned
regarding the arrival of the trough and attendant upper low, but
differ in spatial placement. As such my confidence is high the CWA
should see periods of rain and storms starting on Saturday and
continuing into early next week, but my confidence is low concerning
specifics. Portions of the CWA could see decent rainfall amounts by
the time the system moves out late on TUE... upwards of 3 or 4 inches. As
for SVR storms the current NWP favors SUN over SAT as ample shear
and instability should be in place, but this is rather far out yet and
will become clearer as the week moves forward. The last item to note
will be very chilly temps TUE night behind the departing system. We
very well may see sub 32F temps WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Surface winds will
slowly veer this evening to out of the southeast and should see an
increase in the speeds by very late in the period. Latest model data
depict showers and TSRA to develop very late tonight into the morning
hours, but that activity should remain well north of the terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221734
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Dry air continues to advect into the region early this morning, with
surface dewpoints in the 30s replacing dewpoints in the 50s. Surface
high pressure is approaching from the west, and the high pressure
axis will move across the forecast area today. This will result in
relatively light wind speeds with a gradual transition from
northeast to southeast directions. Upper level riding will build
into the region today, and with ample insolation, temperatures will
warm into the 60s to near 70 degrees during the afternoon hours.

Attention turns to Wednesday and Thursday as a progressive,
negatively-tilted trough moves through the central CONUS. Models
hint at increasing warm air advection, especially just to our west,
with a notable increase in H85 wind speeds Wednesday morning. This
pattern may lead to elevated shallow convection, primarily over the
northwest quarter of the forecast area. Instability is meager during
this period, so severe weather is not expected with this initial
activity. Precipitation that does develop Wednesday morning should
come to an end by midday, with temperatures warming into the 70s in
most locations. Well organized convection is expected to develop
during the afternoon/evening hours along a cold front and dryline
over the High Plains, eventually consolidating into a cluster of
thunderstorms during the late evening. As the convection moves
east, decreasing instability will exist with eastward extent and
a gradual weakening trend is anticipated by the time the convection
reaches the forecast area. While shear will be sufficient for
organized convection, the lack of instability will largely preclude
severe weather over the area as the frontal boundary and associated
convection moves through Thursday morning, although an isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out. Many areas may receive around
one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in areas
with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end during
Thursday afternoon from west to east.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and at least
partially emerge into the Plains during the weekend. Considerable
uncertainty exists with specifics regarding the synoptic upper
pattern evolution and surface fields with the approaching system.
The overall signal suggests an active weather period for the region
is becoming increasingly probable during the weekend into early next
week, with the potential for strong to severe weather and several
bouts of rainfall. Subsequent model runs will continue to help
better refine timing/locations of precipitation chances and the
potential severity of thunderstorm development.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Surface winds will
slowly veer this evening to out of the southeast and should see an
increase in the speeds by very late in the period. Latest model data
depict showers and TSRA to develop very late tonight into the morning
hours, but that activity should remain well north of the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
617 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Dry air continues to advect into the region early this morning, with
surface dewpoints in the 30s replacing dewpoints in the 50s. Surface
high pressure is approaching from the west, and the high pressure
axis will move across the forecast area today. This will result in
relatively light wind speeds with a gradual transition from
northeast to southeast directions. Upper level riding will build
into the region today, and with ample insolation, temperatures will
warm into the 60s to near 70 degrees during the afternoon hours.

Attention turns to Wednesday and Thursday as a progressive,
negatively-tilted trough moves through the central CONUS. Models
hint at increasing warm air advection, especially just to our west,
with a notable increase in H85 wind speeds Wednesday morning. This
pattern may lead to elevated shallow convection, primarily over the
northwest quarter of the forecast area. Instability is meager during
this period, so severe weather is not expected with this initial
activity. Precipitation that does develop Wednesday morning should
come to an end by midday, with temperatures warming into the 70s in
most locations. Well organized convection is expected to develop
during the afternoon/evening hours along a cold front and dryline
over the High Plains, eventually consolidating into a cluster of
thunderstorms during the late evening. As the convection moves
east, decreasing instability will exist with eastward extent and
a gradual weakening trend is anticipated by the time the convection
reaches the forecast area. While shear will be sufficient for
organized convection, the lack of instability will largely preclude
severe weather over the area as the frontal boundary and associated
convection moves through Thursday morning, although an isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out. Many areas may receive around
one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in areas
with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end during
Thursday afternoon from west to east.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and at least
partially emerge into the Plains during the weekend. Considerable
uncertainty exists with specifics regarding the synoptic upper
pattern evolution and surface fields with the approaching system.
The overall signal suggests an active weather period for the region
is becoming increasingly probable during the weekend into early next
week, with the potential for strong to severe weather and several
bouts of rainfall. Subsequent model runs will continue to help
better refine timing/locations of precipitation chances and the
potential severity of thunderstorm development.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Surface wind speeds
will gradually veer from northeast to southeast by this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220752
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
252 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Dry air continues to advect into the region early this morning, with
surface dewpoints in the 30s replacing dewpoints in the 50s. Surface
high pressure is approaching from the west, and the high pressure
axis will move across the forecast area today. This will result in
relatively light wind speeds with a gradual transition from
northeast to southeast directions. Upper level riding will build
into the region today, and with ample insolation, temperatures will
warm into the 60s to near 70 degrees during the afternoon hours.

Attention turns to Wednesday and Thursday as a progressive,
negatively-tilted trough moves through the central CONUS. Models
hint at increasing warm air advection, especially just to our west,
with a notable increase in H85 wind speeds Wednesday morning. This
pattern may lead to elevated shallow convection, primarily over the
northwest quarter of the forecast area. Instability is meager during
this period, so severe weather is not expected with this initial
activity. Precipitation that does develop Wednesday morning should
come to an end by midday, with temperatures warming into the 70s in
most locations. Well organized convection is expected to develop
during the afternoon/evening hours along a cold front and dryline
over the High Plains, eventually consolidating into a cluster of
thunderstorms during the late evening. As the convection moves
east, decreasing instability will exist with eastward extent and
a gradual weakening trend is anticipated by the time the convection
reaches the forecast area. While shear will be sufficient for
organized convection, the lack of instability will largely preclude
severe weather over the area as the frontal boundary and associated
convection moves through Thursday morning, although an isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out. Many areas may receive around
one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in areas
with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end during
Thursday afternoon from west to east.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and at least
partially emerge into the Plains during the weekend. Considerable
uncertainty exists with specifics regarding the synoptic upper
pattern evolution and surface fields with the approaching system.
The overall signal suggests an active weather period for the region
is becoming increasingly probable during the weekend into early next
week, with the potential for strong to severe weather and several
bouts of rainfall. Subsequent model runs will continue to help
better refine timing/locations of precipitation chances and the
potential severity of thunderstorm development.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
North northwesterly winds will gradually lessen and turn eastward by
late Tuesday morning, and skies will remain generally clear.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Shower activity has greatly diminished this afternoon as a weak surface
front/wind shift drops into east central KS and central MO.
Subsidence behind both this feature and a subtle wave aloft seem to
have kept a lot of the shower activity at bay this afternoon.
However, while the wind shift is pushing to the south of the Missouri
River, the main frontal boundary itself is just now entering far
southwest Iowa where dewpoints rapidly drop from the mid 50s into the
20s. Ahead of this line the airmass is showing signs of weak
destabilization over eastern KS and northern MO, and it`s still
possible if not likely for scattered thunderstorms to develop across
this area over the next couple of hours as the airmass continues to
destabilize and convergence increases along the elevated front in the
925 to 850 hPa layer. Will therefore hold on to 50-percent PoPs for
much of the area through early evening until the primary frontal
boundary pushes through. Anything that pops up will be short-lived
and unlikely to be strong.

Skies will rapidly clear from northwest to southeast this evening
as surface ridging begins to build in from the north. Low-level ridge
axis will become centered over the forecast area on Tuesday providing
clear skies and temperatures near average for mid/late April.

On Wednesday an upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies into
the High Plains bringing rising temperatures to our area and a threat
for strong storms to western parts of KS and OK. These storms will
reach their peak severity well to our west Wednesday afternoon and
early evening and should lose considerable strength by the time they
reach far eastern KS and western MO late Weds night and early Thurs
morning. However, the upper level trough will take a more negative
tilt as it approaches our area Wednesday night which will bring an
increase to wind fields at both the lower and middle levels and will
also allow for a broad increase in deep-layer ascent. Therefore while
the storms won`t be as strong, they will likely grow upscale in
coverage overnight and bring widespread rain to the area. Combined
with strong moisture transport within a strong low-level jet and
precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches, some spots could
see an inch or more of rain with this system through Thursday
afternoon.

In a continued progressive upper-level pattern, ridging will be quick
to return to the region Thursday night and Friday keeping
temperatures near average. Models continue to advertise a deep storm
system ejecting into the Plains over the weekend into early next
week. This system has the potential to produce some active weather
across the central part of the country. While there is still
considerable variability among models, and thus plenty of room for
the track of this system to change, it currently appears the most
active weather will stay to our south keeping our area in the cool
and rainy sector as opposed to warm and stormy.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
North northwesterly winds will gradually lessen and turn eastward by
late Tuesday morning, and skies will remain generally clear.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212325
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Shower activity has greatly diminished this afternoon as a weak surface
front/wind shift drops into east central KS and central MO.
Subsidence behind both this feature and a subtle wave aloft seem to
have kept a lot of the shower activity at bay this afternoon.
However, while the wind shift is pushing to the south of the Missouri
River, the main frontal boundary itself is just now entering far
southwest Iowa where dewpoints rapidly drop from the mid 50s into the
20s. Ahead of this line the airmass is showing signs of weak
destabilization over eastern KS and northern MO, and it`s still
possible if not likely for scattered thunderstorms to develop across
this area over the next couple of hours as the airmass continues to
destabilize and convergence increases along the elevated front in the
925 to 850 hPa layer. Will therefore hold on to 50-percent PoPs for
much of the area through early evening until the primary frontal
boundary pushes through. Anything that pops up will be short-lived
and unlikely to be strong.

Skies will rapidly clear from northwest to southeast this evening
as surface ridging begins to build in from the north. Low-level ridge
axis will become centered over the forecast area on Tuesday providing
clear skies and temperatures near average for mid/late April.

On Wednesday an upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies into
the High Plains bringing rising temperatures to our area and a threat
for strong storms to western parts of KS and OK. These storms will
reach their peak severity well to our west Wednesday afternoon and
early evening and should lose considerable strength by the time they
reach far eastern KS and western MO late Weds night and early Thurs
morning. However, the upper level trough will take a more negative
tilt as it approaches our area Wednesday night which will bring an
increase to wind fields at both the lower and middle levels and will
also allow for a broad increase in deep-layer ascent. Therefore while
the storms won`t be as strong, they will likely grow upscale in
coverage overnight and bring widespread rain to the area. Combined
with strong moisture transport within a strong low-level jet and
precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches, some spots could
see an inch or more of rain with this system through Thursday
afternoon.

In a continued progressive upper-level pattern, ridging will be quick
to return to the region Thursday night and Friday keeping
temperatures near average. Models continue to advertise a deep storm
system ejecting into the Plains over the weekend into early next
week. This system has the potential to produce some active weather
across the central part of the country. While there is still
considerable variability among models, and thus plenty of room for
the track of this system to change, it currently appears the most
active weather will stay to our south keeping our area in the cool
and rainy sector as opposed to warm and stormy.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A southeastward-moving cold front is currently bi-secting the
forecast area, and will continue to slide out of the region over
the next 3-4 hours. Scattered to broken ceilings between 4-5 kft
and isolated thunderstorms are possible just ahead of and along
the front, and briefly gusty north winds are expected just behind.
Clear skies and diminishing winds are anticipated after the front
passes.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212024
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
324 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Shower activity has greatly diminished this afternoon as a weak surface
front/wind shift drops into east central KS and central MO.
Subsidence behind both this feature and a subtle wave aloft seem to
have kept a lot of the shower activity at bay this afternoon.
However, while the wind shift is pushing to the south of the Missouri
River, the main frontal boundary itself is just now entering far
southwest Iowa where dewpoints rapidly drop from the mid 50s into the
20s. Ahead of this line the airmass is showing signs of weak
destabilization over eastern KS and northern MO, and it`s still
possible if not likely for scattered thunderstorms to develop across
this area over the next couple of hours as the airmass continues to
destabilize and convergence increases along the elevated front in the
925 to 850 hPa layer. Will therefore hold on to 50-percent PoPs for
much of the area through early evening until the primary frontal
boundary pushes through. Anything that pops up will be short-lived
and unlikely to be strong.

Skies will rapidly clear from northwest to southeast this evening
as surface ridging begins to build in from the north. Low-level ridge
axis will become centered over the forecast area on Tuesday providing
clear skies and temperatures near average for mid/late April.

On Wednesday an upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies into
the High Plains bringing rising temperatures to our area and a threat
for strong storms to western parts of KS and OK. These storms will
reach their peak severity well to our west Wednesday afternoon and
early evening and should lose considerable strength by the time they
reach far eastern KS and western MO late Weds night and early Thurs
morning. However, the upper level trough will take a more negative
tilt as it approaches our area Wednesday night which will bring an
increase to wind fields at both the lower and middle levels and will
also allow for a broad increase in deep-layer ascent. Therefore while
the storms won`t be as strong, they will likely grow upscale in
coverage overnight and bring widespread rain to the area. Combined
with strong moisture transport within a strong low-level jet and
precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches, some spots could
see an inch or more of rain with this system through Thursday
afternoon.

In a continued progressive upper-level pattern, ridging will be quick
to return to the region Thursday night and Friday keeping
temperatures near average. Models continue to advertise a deep storm
system ejecting into the Plains over the weekend into early next
week. This system has the potential to produce some active weather
across the central part of the country. While there is still
considerable variability among models, and thus plenty of room for
the track of this system to change, it currently appears the most
active weather will stay to our south keeping our area in the cool
and rainy sector as opposed to warm and stormy.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Weak cold front is currently tracking through Kansas City, although
breaks in the clouds behind the front is actually allowing
temperatures to warm a bit. This may allow scattered thunderstorms to
develop behind the front through the afternoon, but any impacts to
the terminals should be limited to brief downpours. No significant wind
concerns with any storms that develop.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel









000
FXUS63 KEAX 211736
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

No significant changes to ongoing forecast as showers and a few
rumbles of thunder continue to track across the area. A bit of
clearing developing between St Joe and Topeka could allow for weak
destabilization later to occur this morning and early afternoon, and
RAP forecast soundings are predicting as much as 700-1000 J/kg of
CAPE developing across much of the area as the front moves through.
This is probably overdone, but we should still see enough instability
for an increase in weak thunderstorms ahead of and just behind the
cold front over the next few hours. The severe threat remains very
low due to very weak shear, but with a bit of mid-level dry air
moving in it wouldn`t be surprising to see a few gusts to 30 or 40
mph in the stronger cells that develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Monday:

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms have blossomed over the
region in the last few hours. Anticipate precipitation continuing to
expand in coverage as the shortwave trough approaches from the west
and the surface boundary advances southward. The southward push may
be enhanced by thunderstorm outflow from more numerous and stronger
convection over Nebraska. Instability continues to look weak and
shear is very weak so the threat of severe weather is very low.
Rather it looks like scattered to widespread moderate rain showers
with lower coverage of storms will occur. Temperatures continue to be
a challenge today. Numerical guidance seems too warm given what
should be thick cloud cover and potentially numerous areas of
precipitation. Southeastern portions of the forecast area may not
break out of the clouds today with precipitation ending in the late
afternoon. Really think these areas will not have much of a warm up,
or not nearly as warm as some guidance suggest. The going forecast
looked pretty good and 00Z 21 NAM also indicated this notion. So the
high forecast utilizes a mix of these two.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Quiet weather is expected Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. High
pressure will build into the region behind the departing storm
system. The airmass moving in is only modestly cooler than the
airmass its replacing so highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s continue
to look likely.

Strong warm/moist advection and lift is expected through the day
Wednesday and there will be at least a chance for showers and storms
to develop across northern Missouri during the day Wednesday. Highs
look to climb into the upper 70s to perhaps the 80s in our
southwest. Also with moisture flowing northward, it should start to
feel more humid as dewpoints climb into the mid 50s by the
afternoon.

Wednesday Night - Thursday:

Models have come into much better agreement with the timing of the
surface front. We should see the front into northwestern Missouri by
daybreak Thursday with a line of convection associated with it. This
will be enhanced by a strong trough moving the Central/Northern
Plains that may begin to take a more negative tilt Wednesday night.
With the front possibly moving through earlier in the day, the
instability looks a little weaker despite strong shear and dynamics.
Given the strong shear and dynamic system, the threat of severe
weather still can`t be ruled out so will continue mention of a low
threat of severe weather in the HWO.

Friday - Sunday:

Beyond Thursday, model guidance begins to vary and this becomes
quite noticeable by Friday. The GFS surges the Thursday front much
further south and reinforces it with a dose of cooler air out of the
Canadian prairies. The ECMWF and the GEM don`t advance that front as
far south and as a result keep temperatures about 15 degrees warmer.
By Saturday, the ECMWF has the area within a robust warm sector
while the GEM trended more with the GFS in moving cooler air further
south. There is almost a 30 degree temperature spread by Saturday
afternoon. But it gets better. By Sunday, each model is similar to
their previous day forecast but now the spread has increased to
around 40 degrees. GEFS ensemble mean and standard deviation plots
also show a great deal of variability with high amount of standard
deviation.  Given the extreme variability noted in the models there
is very little confidence in the extended portion of this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Weak cold front is currently tracking through Kansas City, although
breaks in the clouds behind the front is actually allowing
temperatures to warm a bit. This may allow scattered thunderstorms to
develop behind the front through the afternoon, but any impacts to
the terminals should be limited to brief downpours. No significant wind
concerns with any storms that develop.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211441
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
941 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

No significant changes to ongoing forecast as showers and a few
rumbles of thunder continue to track across the area. A bit of
clearing developing between St Joe and Topeka could allow for weak
destabilization later to occur this morning and early afternoon, and
RAP forecast soundings are predicting as much as 700-1000 J/kg of
CAPE developing across much of the area as the front moves through.
This is probably overdone, but we should still see enough instability
for an increase in weak thunderstorms ahead of and just behind the
cold front over the next few hours. The severe threat remains very
low due to very weak shear, but with a bit of mid-level dry air
moving in it wouldn`t be surprising to see a few gusts to 30 or 40
mph in the stronger cells that develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Monday:

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms have blossomed over the
region in the last few hours. Anticipate precipitation continuing to
expand in coverage as the shortwave trough approaches from the west
and the surface boundary advances southward. The southward push may
be enhanced by thunderstorm outflow from more numerous and stronger
convection over Nebraska. Instability continues to look weak and
shear is very weak so the threat of severe weather is very low.
Rather it looks like scattered to widespread moderate rain showers
with lower coverage of storms will occur. Temperatures continue to be
a challenge today. Numerical guidance seems too warm given what
should be thick cloud cover and potentially numerous areas of
precipitation. Southeastern portions of the forecast area may not
break out of the clouds today with precipitation ending in the late
afternoon. Really think these areas will not have much of a warm up,
or not nearly as warm as some guidance suggest. The going forecast
looked pretty good and 00Z 21 NAM also indicated this notion. So the
high forecast utilizes a mix of these two.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Quiet weather is expected Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. High
pressure will build into the region behind the departing storm
system. The airmass moving in is only modestly cooler than the
airmass its replacing so highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s continue
to look likely.

Strong warm/moist advection and lift is expected through the day
Wednesday and there will be at least a chance for showers and storms
to develop across northern Missouri during the day Wednesday. Highs
look to climb into the upper 70s to perhaps the 80s in our
southwest. Also with moisture flowing northward, it should start to
feel more humid as dewpoints climb into the mid 50s by the
afternoon.

Wednesday Night - Thursday:

Models have come into much better agreement with the timing of the
surface front. We should see the front into northwestern Missouri by
daybreak Thursday with a line of convection associated with it. This
will be enhanced by a strong trough moving the Central/Northern
Plains that may begin to take a more negative tilt Wednesday night.
With the front possibly moving through earlier in the day, the
instability looks a little weaker despite strong shear and dynamics.
Given the strong shear and dynamic system, the threat of severe
weather still can`t be ruled out so will continue mention of a low
threat of severe weather in the HWO.

Friday - Sunday:

Beyond Thursday, model guidance begins to vary and this becomes
quite noticeable by Friday. The GFS surges the Thursday front much
further south and reinforces it with a dose of cooler air out of the
Canadian prairies. The ECMWF and the GEM don`t advance that front as
far south and as a result keep temperatures about 15 degrees warmer.
By Saturday, the ECMWF has the area within a robust warm sector
while the GEM trended more with the GFS in moving cooler air further
south. There is almost a 30 degree temperature spread by Saturday
afternoon. But it gets better. By Sunday, each model is similar to
their previous day forecast but now the spread has increased to
around 40 degrees. GEFS ensemble mean and standard deviation plots
also show a great deal of variability with high amount of standard
deviation.  Given the extreme variability noted in the models there
is very little confidence in the extended portion of this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Conditions should mostly be VFR through the period but a window of
MVFR is possible if/when any kind of precipitation moves into a
terminal. The best chances for precipitation at the terminals looks
to be this afternoon as the front pushes through the area. But there
could potentially be a shower or storm at any time through the day so
have just carried a VCSH mention until the front moves into the area.
Southwest winds will veer progressively to the west and eventually
the north after the front pushes through. Some slightly stronger
winds are possible immediately behind the front. Skies are expected
to clear behind the front with high confidence in VFR conditions this
evening through the overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Monday:

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms have blossomed over the
region in the last few hours. Anticipate precipitation continuing to
expand in coverage as the shortwave trough approaches from the west
and the surface boundary advances southward. The southward push may
be enhanced by thunderstorm outflow from more numerous and stronger
convection over Nebraska. Instability continues to look weak and
shear is very weak so the threat of severe weather is very low.
Rather it looks like scattered to widespread moderate rain showers
with lower coverage of storms will occur. Temperatures continue to be
a challenge today. Numerical guidance seems too warm given what
should be thick cloud cover and potentially numerous areas of
precipitation. Southeastern portions of the forecast area may not
break out of the clouds today with precipitation ending in the late
afternoon. Really think these areas will not have much of a warm up,
or not nearly as warm as some guidance suggest. The going forecast
looked pretty good and 00Z 21 NAM also indicated this notion. So the
high forecast utilizes a mix of these two.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Quiet weather is expected Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. High
pressure will build into the region behind the departing storm
system. The airmass moving in is only modestly cooler than the
airmass its replacing so highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s continue
to look likely.

Strong warm/moist advection and lift is expected through the day
Wednesday and there will be at least a chance for showers and storms
to develop across northern Missouri during the day Wednesday. Highs
look to climb into the upper 70s to perhaps the 80s in our
southwest. Also with moisture flowing northward, it should start to
feel more humid as dewpoints climb into the mid 50s by the
afternoon.

Wednesday Night - Thursday:

Models have come into much better agreement with the timing of the
surface front. We should see the front into northwestern Missouri by
daybreak Thursday with a line of convection associated with it. This
will be enhanced by a strong trough moving the Central/Northern
Plains that may begin to take a more negative tilt Wednesday night.
With the front possibly moving through earlier in the day, the
instability looks a little weaker despite strong shear and dynamics.
Given the strong shear and dynamic system, the threat of severe
weather still can`t be ruled out so will continue mention of a low
threat of severe weather in the HWO.

Friday - Sunday:

Beyond Thursday, model guidance begins to vary and this becomes
quite noticeable by Friday. The GFS surges the Thursday front much
further south and reinforces it with a dose of cooler air out of the
Canadian prairies. The ECMWF and the GEM don`t advance that front as
far south and as a result keep temperatures about 15 degrees warmer.
By Saturday, the ECMWF has the area within a robust warm sector
while the GEM trended more with the GFS in moving cooler air further
south. There is almost a 30 degree temperature spread by Saturday
afternoon. But it gets better. By Sunday, each model is similar to
their previous day forecast but now the spread has increased to
around 40 degrees. GEFS ensemble mean and standard deviation plots
also show a great deal of variability with high amount of standard
deviation.  Given the extreme variability noted in the models there
is very little confidence in the extended portion of this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Conditions should mostly be VFR through the period but a window of
MVFR is possible if/when any kind of precipitation moves into a
terminal. The best chances for precipitation at the terminals looks
to be this afternoon as the front pushes through the area. But there
could potentially be a shower or storm at any time through the day so
have just carried a VCSH mention until the front moves into the area.
Southwest winds will veer progressively to the west and eventually
the north after the front pushes through. Some slightly stronger
winds are possible immediately behind the front. Skies are expected
to clear behind the front with high confidence in VFR conditions this
evening through the overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210844
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Monday:

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms have blossomed over the
region in the last few hours. Anticipate precipitation continuing to
expand in coverage as the shortwave trough approaches from the west
and the surface boundary advances southward. The southward push may
be enhanced by thunderstorm outflow from more numerous and stronger
convection over Nebraska. Instability continues to look weak and
shear is very weak so the threat of severe weather is very low.
Rather it looks like scattered to widespread moderate rain showers
with lower coverage of storms will occur. Temperatures continue to be
a challenge today. Numerical guidance seems too warm given what
should be thick cloud cover and potentially numerous areas of
precipitation. Southeastern portions of the forecast area may not
break out of the clouds today with precipitation ending in the late
afternoon. Really think these areas will not have much of a warm up,
or not nearly as warm as some guidance suggest. The going forecast
looked pretty good and 00Z 21 NAM also indicated this notion. So the
high forecast utilizes a mix of these two.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Quiet weather is expected Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. High
pressure will build into the region behind the departing storm
system. The airmass moving in is only modestly cooler than the
airmass its replacing so highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s continue
to look likely.

Strong warm/moist advection and lift is expected through the day
Wednesday and there will be at least a chance for showers and storms
to develop across northern Missouri during the day Wednesday. Highs
look to climb into the upper 70s to perhaps the 80s in our
southwest. Also with moisture flowing northward, it should start to
feel more humid as dewpoints climb into the mid 50s by the
afternoon.

Wednesday Night - Thursday:

Models have come into much better agreement with the timing of the
surface front. We should see the front into northwestern Missouri by
daybreak Thursday with a line of convection associated with it. This
will be enhanced by a strong trough moving the Central/Northern
Plains that may begin to take a more negative tilt Wednesday night.
With the front possibly moving through earlier in the day, the
instability looks a little weaker despite strong shear and dynamics.
Given the strong shear and dynamic system, the threat of severe
weather still can`t be ruled out so will continue mention of a low
threat of severe weather in the HWO.

Friday - Sunday:

Beyond Thursday, model guidance begins to vary and this becomes
quite noticeable by Friday. The GFS surges the Thursday front much
further south and reinforces it with a dose of cooler air out of the
Canadian prairies. The ECMWF and the GEM don`t advance that front as
far south and as a result keep temperatures about 15 degrees warmer.
By Saturday, the ECMWF has the area within a robust warm sector
while the GEM trended more with the GFS in moving cooler air further
south. There is almost a 30 degree temperature spread by Saturday
afternoon. But it gets better. By Sunday, each model is similar to
their previous day forecast but now the spread has increased to
around 40 degrees. GEFS ensemble mean and standard deviation plots
also show a great deal of variability with high amount of standard
deviation.  Given the extreme variability noted in the models there
is very little confidence in the extended portion of this forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Light rain showers will continue to develop over the next several
hours in eastern Kansas and far western MO, and should eventually
evolve into widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms between
09z-12z Monday morning. Ceilings will gradually lower as showers
become more widespread, and should drop to around 2 kft by mid-
morning across the region. Winds will turn northwesterly by midday
Monday, but will only briefly gust to greater than 15 kts in far
northwest MO. Showers and associated MVFR stratus will push out of
the region during the late afternoon and early evening hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin








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