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000
FXUS63 KEAX 221718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of
wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves
eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and
south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity
will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by
the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls
today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and
shouldn`t be enough to really spoil outdoor activities.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the
area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity
Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this
period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture
combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be
weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours,
although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth
alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with
southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some
lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized
rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas
near the KS/MO state line.

Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper
trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the
region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit
more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during
the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn`t rule out a
few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly
unstable as the GFS suggests.

Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week.
Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the
upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will
be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread
heavy rain looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Precipitation to the west will cross through the area Friday
afternoon, while dissipating as it continues eastward. This will lead
to nearby showers for a few hours with continued VFR ceilings. Once
this activity moves out of the area, will likely see a dry period
through the evening and overnight hours. The next wave of activity
will come into play Saturday morning as additional precipitation
moves in from the west. Ceiling heights will lower at this time,
though should remain VFR through 18Z. Precipitation chances will
continue to increase after the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of
wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves
eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and
south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity
will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by
the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls
today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and
shouldn`t be enough to really spoil outdoor activities.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the
area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity
Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this
period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture
combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be
weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours,
although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth
alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with
southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some
lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized
rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas
near the KS/MO state line.

Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper
trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the
region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit
more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during
the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn`t rule out a
few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly
unstable as the GFS suggests.

Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week.
Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the
upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will
be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread
heavy rain looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Precipitation to the west will cross through the area Friday
afternoon, while dissipating as it continues eastward. This will lead
to nearby showers for a few hours with continued VFR ceilings. Once
this activity moves out of the area, will likely see a dry period
through the evening and overnight hours. The next wave of activity
will come into play Saturday morning as additional precipitation
moves in from the west. Ceiling heights will lower at this time,
though should remain VFR through 18Z. Precipitation chances will
continue to increase after the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 221718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of
wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves
eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and
south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity
will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by
the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls
today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and
shouldn`t be enough to really spoil outdoor activities.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the
area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity
Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this
period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture
combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be
weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours,
although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth
alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with
southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some
lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized
rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas
near the KS/MO state line.

Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper
trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the
region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit
more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during
the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn`t rule out a
few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly
unstable as the GFS suggests.

Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week.
Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the
upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will
be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread
heavy rain looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Precipitation to the west will cross through the area Friday
afternoon, while dissipating as it continues eastward. This will lead
to nearby showers for a few hours with continued VFR ceilings. Once
this activity moves out of the area, will likely see a dry period
through the evening and overnight hours. The next wave of activity
will come into play Saturday morning as additional precipitation
moves in from the west. Ceiling heights will lower at this time,
though should remain VFR through 18Z. Precipitation chances will
continue to increase after the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of
wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves
eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and
south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity
will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by
the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls
today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and
shouldn`t be enough to really spoil outdoor activities.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the
area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity
Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this
period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture
combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be
weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours,
although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth
alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with
southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some
lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized
rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas
near the KS/MO state line.

Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper
trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the
region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit
more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during
the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn`t rule out a
few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly
unstable as the GFS suggests.

Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week.
Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the
upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will
be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread
heavy rain looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Precipitation to the west will cross through the area Friday
afternoon, while dissipating as it continues eastward. This will lead
to nearby showers for a few hours with continued VFR ceilings. Once
this activity moves out of the area, will likely see a dry period
through the evening and overnight hours. The next wave of activity
will come into play Saturday morning as additional precipitation
moves in from the west. Ceiling heights will lower at this time,
though should remain VFR through 18Z. Precipitation chances will
continue to increase after the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 221057
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
557 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of
wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves
eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and
south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity
will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by
the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls
today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and
shouldn`t be enough to really spoil outdoor activities.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the
area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity
Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this
period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture
combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be
weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours,
although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth
alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with
southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some
lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized
rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas
near the KS/MO state line.

Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper
trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the
region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit
more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during
the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn`t rule out a
few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly
unstable as the GFS suggests.

Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week.
Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the
upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will
be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread
heavy rain looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large area of rain over KS and OK will weaken significantly by the
time it gets this far east later today. Other than a few isolated
showers or sprinkles this afternoon, most of the day should be dry.
Slightly better chances for scattered showers will arrive late
tonight. Overall wind pattern will be to go from southwesterly to
southeasterly through the day, although they could vary quite a bit
occasionally due to the light nature.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221057
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
557 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of
wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves
eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and
south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity
will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by
the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls
today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and
shouldn`t be enough to really spoil outdoor activities.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the
area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity
Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this
period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture
combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be
weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours,
although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth
alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with
southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some
lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized
rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas
near the KS/MO state line.

Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper
trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the
region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit
more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during
the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn`t rule out a
few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly
unstable as the GFS suggests.

Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week.
Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the
upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will
be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread
heavy rain looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large area of rain over KS and OK will weaken significantly by the
time it gets this far east later today. Other than a few isolated
showers or sprinkles this afternoon, most of the day should be dry.
Slightly better chances for scattered showers will arrive late
tonight. Overall wind pattern will be to go from southwesterly to
southeasterly through the day, although they could vary quite a bit
occasionally due to the light nature.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of
wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves
eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and
south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity
will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by
the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls
today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and
shouldn`t be enough to really spoil outdoor activities.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the
area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity
Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this
period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture
combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be
weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours,
although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth
alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with
southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some
lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized
rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas
near the KS/MO state line.

Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper
trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the
region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit
more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during
the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn`t rule out a
few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly
unstable as the GFS suggests.

Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week.
Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the
upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will
be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread
heavy rain looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Cigs
will gradually lower on Friday, but should remain at or above 10 kft.
Light southwest winds will become variable in direction Friday AM,
eventually increasing to 7-8 kts out of the southeast by late aftn.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of
wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves
eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and
south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity
will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by
the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls
today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and
shouldn`t be enough to really spoil outdoor activities.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the
area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity
Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this
period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture
combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be
weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours,
although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth
alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with
southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some
lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized
rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas
near the KS/MO state line.

Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper
trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the
region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit
more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during
the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn`t rule out a
few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly
unstable as the GFS suggests.

Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week.
Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the
upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will
be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread
heavy rain looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Cigs
will gradually lower on Friday, but should remain at or above 10 kft.
Light southwest winds will become variable in direction Friday AM,
eventually increasing to 7-8 kts out of the southeast by late aftn.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of
wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves
eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and
south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity
will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by
the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls
today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and
shouldn`t be enough to really spoil outdoor activities.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the
area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity
Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this
period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture
combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be
weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours,
although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth
alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with
southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some
lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized
rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas
near the KS/MO state line.

Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper
trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the
region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit
more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during
the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn`t rule out a
few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly
unstable as the GFS suggests.

Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week.
Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the
upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will
be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread
heavy rain looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Cigs
will gradually lower on Friday, but should remain at or above 10 kft.
Light southwest winds will become variable in direction Friday AM,
eventually increasing to 7-8 kts out of the southeast by late aftn.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220450
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Cigs
will gradually lower on Friday, but should remain at or above 10 kft.
Light southwest winds will become variable in direction Friday AM,
eventually increasing to 7-8 kts out of the southeast by late aftn.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220450
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Cigs
will gradually lower on Friday, but should remain at or above 10 kft.
Light southwest winds will become variable in direction Friday AM,
eventually increasing to 7-8 kts out of the southeast by late aftn.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220450
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Cigs
will gradually lower on Friday, but should remain at or above 10 kft.
Light southwest winds will become variable in direction Friday AM,
eventually increasing to 7-8 kts out of the southeast by late aftn.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212337
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Progressively thicker cirrus will build in from the southwest by early
Friday, but ceilings will remain at or above 10 kft. Light winds will
vary in direction from northwest to southwest, but at speeds around 5
kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212337
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Progressively thicker cirrus will build in from the southwest by early
Friday, but ceilings will remain at or above 10 kft. Light winds will
vary in direction from northwest to southwest, but at speeds around 5
kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212337
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Progressively thicker cirrus will build in from the southwest by early
Friday, but ceilings will remain at or above 10 kft. Light winds will
vary in direction from northwest to southwest, but at speeds around 5
kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212337
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Progressively thicker cirrus will build in from the southwest by early
Friday, but ceilings will remain at or above 10 kft. Light winds will
vary in direction from northwest to southwest, but at speeds around 5
kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conds will cont thru the TAF pd with clr skies this afternoon.
Sct high cirrus will filter into the terminals tonight with bkn mid-
lvl clouds moving into the terminals tomorrow morning. NW winds btn
5-10kts this afternoon will diminish this evening and become lgt and
vrb.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conds will cont thru the TAF pd with clr skies this afternoon.
Sct high cirrus will filter into the terminals tonight with bkn mid-
lvl clouds moving into the terminals tomorrow morning. NW winds btn
5-10kts this afternoon will diminish this evening and become lgt and
vrb.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conds will cont thru the TAF pd with clr skies this afternoon.
Sct high cirrus will filter into the terminals tonight with bkn mid-
lvl clouds moving into the terminals tomorrow morning. NW winds btn
5-10kts this afternoon will diminish this evening and become lgt and
vrb.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The main concern during the forecast period will be the potential
for additional rainfall through the period to cause localized flash
flooding and to exacerbate ongoing river flooding as well as cause
additional rivers to go into flood.

The short term looks to remain rather benign allowing flooding on
area rivers to abate. This is thanks to surface high pressure
residing over the area today. This area of high pressure will remain
over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday. Friday an
approaching leading shortwave ejecting out from an upper level
trough over Southern California will allow precipitation to spread
eastward across Kansas. However, as it approaches eastern Kansas and
western Missouri it will run into dry air in place. That being said
light, high based showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and
night across eastern Kansas and western Missouri while the eastern
CWA remains dry. On Saturday, the upper level trough will slowly
move into the Great Basin area while a upper level ridge begins to
assert itself over the southern CONUS. The building of the sern
ridge will have two effects. The first being, it will slow the
progressive pattern across the CONUS and secondly, will allow the
Gulf moisture to stream into the area on the back side of the ridge.
Consequently, moisture will become more plentiful as we head into
Saturday and especially Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
day Saturday expect mainly just scattered showers and
thunderstorms...severe weather is not anticipated as instability is
extremely low. As we move into the Saturday night to Sunday night
period, PWAT values rise to 1.50"-1.75" which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will be the main period of concern as
storms could be very efficient rain producers. And, with 2 to 3
three rounds of heavy rainfall depicted by the models Saturday night
through Sunday night, this may cause localized flash flooding as
well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding, and cause additional
rivers to go into flood.

Beyond this period conditions improve somewhat although it will
continue to remain wet. By Monday, the upper level trough moves into
the northern and Central Plains with continued shortwaves moving
through the area. The good news is moisture flow out of the Gulf
becomes veered and PWAT values become more seasonable. As such,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday thru
Wednesday. Late in the period the slow moving pattern beings to
break down and we return to more zonal flow. However, conditions may
continue to remain wet as models indicate a upper shortwave moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a front into
the area and stalling.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conds will cont thru the TAF pd with clr skies this afternoon.
Sct high cirrus will filter into the terminals tonight with bkn mid-
lvl clouds moving into the terminals tomorrow morning. NW winds btn
5-10kts this afternoon will diminish this evening and become lgt and
vrb.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be
dry.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conds will cont thru the TAF pd with clr skies this afternoon.
Sct high cirrus will filter into the terminals tonight with bkn mid-
lvl clouds moving into the terminals tomorrow morning. NW winds btn
5-10kts this afternoon will diminish this evening and become lgt and
vrb.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be
dry.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conds will cont thru the TAF pd with clr skies this afternoon.
Sct high cirrus will filter into the terminals tonight with bkn mid-
lvl clouds moving into the terminals tomorrow morning. NW winds btn
5-10kts this afternoon will diminish this evening and become lgt and
vrb.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be
dry.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Bulk of the overnight cloud cover is clearing out from north to
south, although there`s been some patchy fog/very low stratus
developing behind these clouds over northern Missouri. This patchy
low moisture is moving south and would be short lived if it does
impact a terminal. This will clear the area by 8 or 9 AM with
generally clear skies for the remainder of the day although it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a few cumulus develop later on with
bases around 4 or 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be
dry.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Bulk of the overnight cloud cover is clearing out from north to
south, although there`s been some patchy fog/very low stratus
developing behind these clouds over northern Missouri. This patchy
low moisture is moving south and would be short lived if it does
impact a terminal. This will clear the area by 8 or 9 AM with
generally clear skies for the remainder of the day although it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a few cumulus develop later on with
bases around 4 or 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be
dry.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Bulk of the overnight cloud cover is clearing out from north to
south, although there`s been some patchy fog/very low stratus
developing behind these clouds over northern Missouri. This patchy
low moisture is moving south and would be short lived if it does
impact a terminal. This will clear the area by 8 or 9 AM with
generally clear skies for the remainder of the day although it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a few cumulus develop later on with
bases around 4 or 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be
dry.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Bulk of the overnight cloud cover is clearing out from north to
south, although there`s been some patchy fog/very low stratus
developing behind these clouds over northern Missouri. This patchy
low moisture is moving south and would be short lived if it does
impact a terminal. This will clear the area by 8 or 9 AM with
generally clear skies for the remainder of the day although it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a few cumulus develop later on with
bases around 4 or 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210809
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be
dry.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Forecast for tonight at the area terminals is a bit tricky given
the ceilings on the cusp between MVFR and IFR. Clearing is making
its way down across NE and western IA as surface high pressure
inches closer to the region. This clearing from north to south
through tonight could cause some fog issues at STJ, MCI, MKC, and
depending on timing, IXD. Look for a reduction in ceilings and
visbys into IFR and possibly LIFR conditions, particularly at STJ
since the terminal should be clearing out within the next couple
of hours. Any fog and low stratus early this morning will clear
out shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions at all four
terminals for the remainder of this TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210809
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high
pressure building in from the northwest. Sun will provide a 10 to 15
degree warmup from yesterday but temperatures will still be about 10
degrees below average.

Warm air advection will spread into the region on Friday with the
surface high shifting eastward, although an accompanying increase in
moisture and isentropic ascent will usher in clouds and a few light
rain showers particularly across areas near and west of the KS/MO
state line. This will likely keep temperatures down into the 60s for
these areas while areas further east should rise into the 70s.
Saturday will see a better chance for scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two with continued isentropic lift and slightly
better moisture. None of this precipitation looks strong enough to
lead to any real flooding concerns and a lot of the day should be
dry.

Saturday night into Sunday will be the rainier/stormier period of
the Memorial Day weekend with the main upper trough approaching from
the west. Meridional flow throughout the troposphere could support
some training of north/south-oriented thunderstorm bands which could
lead to locally heavy rain and perhaps flooding concerns,
particularly across eastern KS into western MO. This continued
precipitation will likely result in poor lapse rates and low
instability, which combined with the lack of strong wind shear should
keep Sunday`s severe storm threat on the low side.

Forecast remains rather stormy heading into early next week with
several impulses embedded within broad southwest upper flow tracking
into the area. Warmer temperatures and higher instability could set
the stage for a few stronger storms during this time and additional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Forecast for tonight at the area terminals is a bit tricky given
the ceilings on the cusp between MVFR and IFR. Clearing is making
its way down across NE and western IA as surface high pressure
inches closer to the region. This clearing from north to south
through tonight could cause some fog issues at STJ, MCI, MKC, and
depending on timing, IXD. Look for a reduction in ceilings and
visbys into IFR and possibly LIFR conditions, particularly at STJ
since the terminal should be clearing out within the next couple
of hours. Any fog and low stratus early this morning will clear
out shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions at all four
terminals for the remainder of this TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210513
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Have updated the forecast this evening to account for continued
drizzle mention over the next few hours, likely coming to an end
just before/by midnight across the forecast area, tapering off
from the NW to the SE. Additionally, will need to keep a close eye
on whether or not there will end up being a low stratus deck or
fog by the early AM hours as surface high pressure moves in from
the NW. The question will be whether or not the current cloud
cover will continue to lift/partially clear, opening the door for
more of a fog threat. If this partial clearing doesn`t occur, then
will remain a low stratus deck across the area. Winds will
continue to slacken as the night progresses and with plentiful
lower-level/ground moisture in place, any partial clearing/lifting
will assist in fog development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Forecast for tonight at the area terminals is a bit tricky given
the ceilings on the cusp between MVFR and IFR. Clearing is making
its way down across NE and western IA as surface high pressure
inches closer to the region. This clearing from north to south
through tonight could cause some fog issues at STJ, MCI, MKC, and
depending on timing, IXD. Look for a reduction in ceilings and
visbys into IFR and possibly LIFR conditions, particularly at STJ
since the terminal should be clearing out within the next couple
of hours. Any fog and low stratus early this morning will clear
out shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions at all four
terminals for the remainder of this TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210513
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Have updated the forecast this evening to account for continued
drizzle mention over the next few hours, likely coming to an end
just before/by midnight across the forecast area, tapering off
from the NW to the SE. Additionally, will need to keep a close eye
on whether or not there will end up being a low stratus deck or
fog by the early AM hours as surface high pressure moves in from
the NW. The question will be whether or not the current cloud
cover will continue to lift/partially clear, opening the door for
more of a fog threat. If this partial clearing doesn`t occur, then
will remain a low stratus deck across the area. Winds will
continue to slacken as the night progresses and with plentiful
lower-level/ground moisture in place, any partial clearing/lifting
will assist in fog development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Forecast for tonight at the area terminals is a bit tricky given
the ceilings on the cusp between MVFR and IFR. Clearing is making
its way down across NE and western IA as surface high pressure
inches closer to the region. This clearing from north to south
through tonight could cause some fog issues at STJ, MCI, MKC, and
depending on timing, IXD. Look for a reduction in ceilings and
visbys into IFR and possibly LIFR conditions, particularly at STJ
since the terminal should be clearing out within the next couple
of hours. Any fog and low stratus early this morning will clear
out shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions at all four
terminals for the remainder of this TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210513
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Have updated the forecast this evening to account for continued
drizzle mention over the next few hours, likely coming to an end
just before/by midnight across the forecast area, tapering off
from the NW to the SE. Additionally, will need to keep a close eye
on whether or not there will end up being a low stratus deck or
fog by the early AM hours as surface high pressure moves in from
the NW. The question will be whether or not the current cloud
cover will continue to lift/partially clear, opening the door for
more of a fog threat. If this partial clearing doesn`t occur, then
will remain a low stratus deck across the area. Winds will
continue to slacken as the night progresses and with plentiful
lower-level/ground moisture in place, any partial clearing/lifting
will assist in fog development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Forecast for tonight at the area terminals is a bit tricky given
the ceilings on the cusp between MVFR and IFR. Clearing is making
its way down across NE and western IA as surface high pressure
inches closer to the region. This clearing from north to south
through tonight could cause some fog issues at STJ, MCI, MKC, and
depending on timing, IXD. Look for a reduction in ceilings and
visbys into IFR and possibly LIFR conditions, particularly at STJ
since the terminal should be clearing out within the next couple
of hours. Any fog and low stratus early this morning will clear
out shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions at all four
terminals for the remainder of this TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210513
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Have updated the forecast this evening to account for continued
drizzle mention over the next few hours, likely coming to an end
just before/by midnight across the forecast area, tapering off
from the NW to the SE. Additionally, will need to keep a close eye
on whether or not there will end up being a low stratus deck or
fog by the early AM hours as surface high pressure moves in from
the NW. The question will be whether or not the current cloud
cover will continue to lift/partially clear, opening the door for
more of a fog threat. If this partial clearing doesn`t occur, then
will remain a low stratus deck across the area. Winds will
continue to slacken as the night progresses and with plentiful
lower-level/ground moisture in place, any partial clearing/lifting
will assist in fog development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Forecast for tonight at the area terminals is a bit tricky given
the ceilings on the cusp between MVFR and IFR. Clearing is making
its way down across NE and western IA as surface high pressure
inches closer to the region. This clearing from north to south
through tonight could cause some fog issues at STJ, MCI, MKC, and
depending on timing, IXD. Look for a reduction in ceilings and
visbys into IFR and possibly LIFR conditions, particularly at STJ
since the terminal should be clearing out within the next couple
of hours. Any fog and low stratus early this morning will clear
out shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions at all four
terminals for the remainder of this TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210041
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
741 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Have updated the forecast this evening to account for continued
drizzle mention over the next few hours, likely coming to an end
just before/by midnight across the forecast area, tapering off
from the NW to the SE. Additionally, will need to keep a close eye
on whether or not there will end up being a low stratus deck or
fog by the early AM hours as surface high pressure moves in from
the NW. The question will be whether or not the current cloud
cover will continue to lift/partially clear, opening the door for
more of a fog threat. If this partial clearing doesn`t occur, then
will remain a low stratus deck across the area. Winds will
continue to slacken as the night progresses and with plentiful
lower-level/ground moisture in place, any partial clearing/lifting
will assist in fog development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Cloud deck is slowly lifting with some partial clearing across the
area terminals but still rather OVC in the low to mid-levels.
Surface high pressure currently over western NE will continue to
progress south and eastward through the overnight hours, perhaps
allowing for a bit more lifting/partial clearing of the ceilings.
Tough call as the early AM hours approaches for whether or not it
will end up being a low stratus deck that lingers through sunrise
or fog. Have attempted to capture this trend in this TAF issuance
to give a heads up that MVFR to IFR (and potentially LIFR if
conditions drop considerably) conditions can be anticipated from
the pre-dawn hours through just after sunrise. Winds will continue
to slacken, remaining out of the N to NW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210041
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
741 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Have updated the forecast this evening to account for continued
drizzle mention over the next few hours, likely coming to an end
just before/by midnight across the forecast area, tapering off
from the NW to the SE. Additionally, will need to keep a close eye
on whether or not there will end up being a low stratus deck or
fog by the early AM hours as surface high pressure moves in from
the NW. The question will be whether or not the current cloud
cover will continue to lift/partially clear, opening the door for
more of a fog threat. If this partial clearing doesn`t occur, then
will remain a low stratus deck across the area. Winds will
continue to slacken as the night progresses and with plentiful
lower-level/ground moisture in place, any partial clearing/lifting
will assist in fog development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Cloud deck is slowly lifting with some partial clearing across the
area terminals but still rather OVC in the low to mid-levels.
Surface high pressure currently over western NE will continue to
progress south and eastward through the overnight hours, perhaps
allowing for a bit more lifting/partial clearing of the ceilings.
Tough call as the early AM hours approaches for whether or not it
will end up being a low stratus deck that lingers through sunrise
or fog. Have attempted to capture this trend in this TAF issuance
to give a heads up that MVFR to IFR (and potentially LIFR if
conditions drop considerably) conditions can be anticipated from
the pre-dawn hours through just after sunrise. Winds will continue
to slacken, remaining out of the N to NW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210041
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
741 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Have updated the forecast this evening to account for continued
drizzle mention over the next few hours, likely coming to an end
just before/by midnight across the forecast area, tapering off
from the NW to the SE. Additionally, will need to keep a close eye
on whether or not there will end up being a low stratus deck or
fog by the early AM hours as surface high pressure moves in from
the NW. The question will be whether or not the current cloud
cover will continue to lift/partially clear, opening the door for
more of a fog threat. If this partial clearing doesn`t occur, then
will remain a low stratus deck across the area. Winds will
continue to slacken as the night progresses and with plentiful
lower-level/ground moisture in place, any partial clearing/lifting
will assist in fog development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Cloud deck is slowly lifting with some partial clearing across the
area terminals but still rather OVC in the low to mid-levels.
Surface high pressure currently over western NE will continue to
progress south and eastward through the overnight hours, perhaps
allowing for a bit more lifting/partial clearing of the ceilings.
Tough call as the early AM hours approaches for whether or not it
will end up being a low stratus deck that lingers through sunrise
or fog. Have attempted to capture this trend in this TAF issuance
to give a heads up that MVFR to IFR (and potentially LIFR if
conditions drop considerably) conditions can be anticipated from
the pre-dawn hours through just after sunrise. Winds will continue
to slacken, remaining out of the N to NW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210041
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
741 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Have updated the forecast this evening to account for continued
drizzle mention over the next few hours, likely coming to an end
just before/by midnight across the forecast area, tapering off
from the NW to the SE. Additionally, will need to keep a close eye
on whether or not there will end up being a low stratus deck or
fog by the early AM hours as surface high pressure moves in from
the NW. The question will be whether or not the current cloud
cover will continue to lift/partially clear, opening the door for
more of a fog threat. If this partial clearing doesn`t occur, then
will remain a low stratus deck across the area. Winds will
continue to slacken as the night progresses and with plentiful
lower-level/ground moisture in place, any partial clearing/lifting
will assist in fog development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Cloud deck is slowly lifting with some partial clearing across the
area terminals but still rather OVC in the low to mid-levels.
Surface high pressure currently over western NE will continue to
progress south and eastward through the overnight hours, perhaps
allowing for a bit more lifting/partial clearing of the ceilings.
Tough call as the early AM hours approaches for whether or not it
will end up being a low stratus deck that lingers through sunrise
or fog. Have attempted to capture this trend in this TAF issuance
to give a heads up that MVFR to IFR (and potentially LIFR if
conditions drop considerably) conditions can be anticipated from
the pre-dawn hours through just after sunrise. Winds will continue
to slacken, remaining out of the N to NW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202031
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR cigs with ocnl IFR cigs/vis and drizzle will affect the
terminals thru 21Z. Otrw...expect persistent MVFR cigs through mid-
morning tomorrow before surface high pressure begins to scatter out
the clouds. Winds will be out of the NNE today btn 10-15kts before
becmg lgt out of the NW tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 202031
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR cigs with ocnl IFR cigs/vis and drizzle will affect the
terminals thru 21Z. Otrw...expect persistent MVFR cigs through mid-
morning tomorrow before surface high pressure begins to scatter out
the clouds. Winds will be out of the NNE today btn 10-15kts before
becmg lgt out of the NW tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 201722
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Widespread rain will track across the entire forecast area from west
to east through much of the morning. Interaction of a 35-kt LLJ and
an elevated boundary near the I-70 corridor is bringing some
frontogenetical enhancement to some of this rain especially around
the I-70 area. It wouldn`t be surprising to see a few rumbles of
thunder and a few rainfall amounts as high as one inch across these
areas, otherwise steady rain and rainfall amounts around a half inch
will be the general rule for most of the forecast area. Precipitation
should taper off pretty quickly from west to east later this morning
as isentropic upglide quickly transitions to downglide and the main
upper wave pushes to the east. However, thick low clouds will linger
through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the
lower 50s. These clouds will likely stick around for much of the
night, but if they clear out quickly enough there could be a few
areas of fog.

A period of zonal upper flow will keep things dry for Thursday and
most of Friday, while a large area of high pressure across much of
the Northern and Central U.S. keeps things seasonably cool with highs
in the 60s. This will also keep a surface boundary confined well to
our south across the Gulf Coast states.

Southwest upper flow returns to the region this weekend into early
next week which will bring a return to a wet pattern. Light rain may
make it as far east as eastern KS Friday and Friday night, but will
struggle to make it much further than that as it encounters a
sprawling surface high over the Midwest. This high will gradually
move well to the east by Saturday evening which will allow higher
moisture and rain chances to spread into more of the forecast area.
Better chances for more widespread thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
into Monday when the main upper trough to the west approaches.
Upper-level wind fields don`t appear particularly strong during this
time, so any severe weather potential may end up highly dependent on
how unstable the atmosphere can get. Bigger concern may be additional
heavy rain and possible flooding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR cigs with ocnl IFR cigs/vis and drizzle will affect the
terminals thru 21Z. Otrw...expect persistent MVFR cigs through mid-
morning tomorrow before surface high pressure begins to scatter out
the clouds. Winds will be out of the NNE today btn 10-15kts before
becmg lgt out of the NW tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 201722
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Widespread rain will track across the entire forecast area from west
to east through much of the morning. Interaction of a 35-kt LLJ and
an elevated boundary near the I-70 corridor is bringing some
frontogenetical enhancement to some of this rain especially around
the I-70 area. It wouldn`t be surprising to see a few rumbles of
thunder and a few rainfall amounts as high as one inch across these
areas, otherwise steady rain and rainfall amounts around a half inch
will be the general rule for most of the forecast area. Precipitation
should taper off pretty quickly from west to east later this morning
as isentropic upglide quickly transitions to downglide and the main
upper wave pushes to the east. However, thick low clouds will linger
through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the
lower 50s. These clouds will likely stick around for much of the
night, but if they clear out quickly enough there could be a few
areas of fog.

A period of zonal upper flow will keep things dry for Thursday and
most of Friday, while a large area of high pressure across much of
the Northern and Central U.S. keeps things seasonably cool with highs
in the 60s. This will also keep a surface boundary confined well to
our south across the Gulf Coast states.

Southwest upper flow returns to the region this weekend into early
next week which will bring a return to a wet pattern. Light rain may
make it as far east as eastern KS Friday and Friday night, but will
struggle to make it much further than that as it encounters a
sprawling surface high over the Midwest. This high will gradually
move well to the east by Saturday evening which will allow higher
moisture and rain chances to spread into more of the forecast area.
Better chances for more widespread thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
into Monday when the main upper trough to the west approaches.
Upper-level wind fields don`t appear particularly strong during this
time, so any severe weather potential may end up highly dependent on
how unstable the atmosphere can get. Bigger concern may be additional
heavy rain and possible flooding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR cigs with ocnl IFR cigs/vis and drizzle will affect the
terminals thru 21Z. Otrw...expect persistent MVFR cigs through mid-
morning tomorrow before surface high pressure begins to scatter out
the clouds. Winds will be out of the NNE today btn 10-15kts before
becmg lgt out of the NW tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 201722
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Widespread rain will track across the entire forecast area from west
to east through much of the morning. Interaction of a 35-kt LLJ and
an elevated boundary near the I-70 corridor is bringing some
frontogenetical enhancement to some of this rain especially around
the I-70 area. It wouldn`t be surprising to see a few rumbles of
thunder and a few rainfall amounts as high as one inch across these
areas, otherwise steady rain and rainfall amounts around a half inch
will be the general rule for most of the forecast area. Precipitation
should taper off pretty quickly from west to east later this morning
as isentropic upglide quickly transitions to downglide and the main
upper wave pushes to the east. However, thick low clouds will linger
through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the
lower 50s. These clouds will likely stick around for much of the
night, but if they clear out quickly enough there could be a few
areas of fog.

A period of zonal upper flow will keep things dry for Thursday and
most of Friday, while a large area of high pressure across much of
the Northern and Central U.S. keeps things seasonably cool with highs
in the 60s. This will also keep a surface boundary confined well to
our south across the Gulf Coast states.

Southwest upper flow returns to the region this weekend into early
next week which will bring a return to a wet pattern. Light rain may
make it as far east as eastern KS Friday and Friday night, but will
struggle to make it much further than that as it encounters a
sprawling surface high over the Midwest. This high will gradually
move well to the east by Saturday evening which will allow higher
moisture and rain chances to spread into more of the forecast area.
Better chances for more widespread thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
into Monday when the main upper trough to the west approaches.
Upper-level wind fields don`t appear particularly strong during this
time, so any severe weather potential may end up highly dependent on
how unstable the atmosphere can get. Bigger concern may be additional
heavy rain and possible flooding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR cigs with ocnl IFR cigs/vis and drizzle will affect the
terminals thru 21Z. Otrw...expect persistent MVFR cigs through mid-
morning tomorrow before surface high pressure begins to scatter out
the clouds. Winds will be out of the NNE today btn 10-15kts before
becmg lgt out of the NW tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 201722
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Widespread rain will track across the entire forecast area from west
to east through much of the morning. Interaction of a 35-kt LLJ and
an elevated boundary near the I-70 corridor is bringing some
frontogenetical enhancement to some of this rain especially around
the I-70 area. It wouldn`t be surprising to see a few rumbles of
thunder and a few rainfall amounts as high as one inch across these
areas, otherwise steady rain and rainfall amounts around a half inch
will be the general rule for most of the forecast area. Precipitation
should taper off pretty quickly from west to east later this morning
as isentropic upglide quickly transitions to downglide and the main
upper wave pushes to the east. However, thick low clouds will linger
through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the
lower 50s. These clouds will likely stick around for much of the
night, but if they clear out quickly enough there could be a few
areas of fog.

A period of zonal upper flow will keep things dry for Thursday and
most of Friday, while a large area of high pressure across much of
the Northern and Central U.S. keeps things seasonably cool with highs
in the 60s. This will also keep a surface boundary confined well to
our south across the Gulf Coast states.

Southwest upper flow returns to the region this weekend into early
next week which will bring a return to a wet pattern. Light rain may
make it as far east as eastern KS Friday and Friday night, but will
struggle to make it much further than that as it encounters a
sprawling surface high over the Midwest. This high will gradually
move well to the east by Saturday evening which will allow higher
moisture and rain chances to spread into more of the forecast area.
Better chances for more widespread thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
into Monday when the main upper trough to the west approaches.
Upper-level wind fields don`t appear particularly strong during this
time, so any severe weather potential may end up highly dependent on
how unstable the atmosphere can get. Bigger concern may be additional
heavy rain and possible flooding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR cigs with ocnl IFR cigs/vis and drizzle will affect the
terminals thru 21Z. Otrw...expect persistent MVFR cigs through mid-
morning tomorrow before surface high pressure begins to scatter out
the clouds. Winds will be out of the NNE today btn 10-15kts before
becmg lgt out of the NW tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 201131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Widespread rain will track across the entire forecast area from west
to east through much of the morning. Interaction of a 35-kt LLJ and
an elevated boundary near the I-70 corridor is bringing some
frontogenetical enhancement to some of this rain especially around
the I-70 area. It wouldn`t be surprising to see a few rumbles of
thunder and a few rainfall amounts as high as one inch across these
areas, otherwise steady rain and rainfall amounts around a half inch
will be the general rule for most of the forecast area. Precipitation
should taper off pretty quickly from west to east later this morning
as isentropic upglide quickly transitions to downglide and the main
upper wave pushes to the east. However, thick low clouds will linger
through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the
lower 50s. These clouds will likely stick around for much of the
night, but if they clear out quickly enough there could be a few
areas of fog.

A period of zonal upper flow will keep things dry for Thursday and
most of Friday, while a large area of high pressure across much of
the Northern and Central U.S. keeps things seasonably cool with highs
in the 60s. This will also keep a surface boundary confined well to
our south across the Gulf Coast states.

Southwest upper flow returns to the region this weekend into early
next week which will bring a return to a wet pattern. Light rain may
make it as far east as eastern KS Friday and Friday night, but will
struggle to make it much further than that as it encounters a
sprawling surface high over the Midwest. This high will gradually
move well to the east by Saturday evening which will allow higher
moisture and rain chances to spread into more of the forecast area.
Better chances for more widespread thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
into Monday when the main upper trough to the west approaches.
Upper-level wind fields don`t appear particularly strong during this
time, so any severe weather potential may end up highly dependent on
how unstable the atmosphere can get. Bigger concern may be additional
heavy rain and possible flooding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Back edge of rain will move into western MO over the next hour or so,
and most indications are that ceilings will drop into IFR once the
rain ends. It may take them a while to lift out of IFR, possibly not
until late this afternoon, with gradual improvement into VFR after
dark.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 201131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Widespread rain will track across the entire forecast area from west
to east through much of the morning. Interaction of a 35-kt LLJ and
an elevated boundary near the I-70 corridor is bringing some
frontogenetical enhancement to some of this rain especially around
the I-70 area. It wouldn`t be surprising to see a few rumbles of
thunder and a few rainfall amounts as high as one inch across these
areas, otherwise steady rain and rainfall amounts around a half inch
will be the general rule for most of the forecast area. Precipitation
should taper off pretty quickly from west to east later this morning
as isentropic upglide quickly transitions to downglide and the main
upper wave pushes to the east. However, thick low clouds will linger
through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the
lower 50s. These clouds will likely stick around for much of the
night, but if they clear out quickly enough there could be a few
areas of fog.

A period of zonal upper flow will keep things dry for Thursday and
most of Friday, while a large area of high pressure across much of
the Northern and Central U.S. keeps things seasonably cool with highs
in the 60s. This will also keep a surface boundary confined well to
our south across the Gulf Coast states.

Southwest upper flow returns to the region this weekend into early
next week which will bring a return to a wet pattern. Light rain may
make it as far east as eastern KS Friday and Friday night, but will
struggle to make it much further than that as it encounters a
sprawling surface high over the Midwest. This high will gradually
move well to the east by Saturday evening which will allow higher
moisture and rain chances to spread into more of the forecast area.
Better chances for more widespread thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
into Monday when the main upper trough to the west approaches.
Upper-level wind fields don`t appear particularly strong during this
time, so any severe weather potential may end up highly dependent on
how unstable the atmosphere can get. Bigger concern may be additional
heavy rain and possible flooding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Back edge of rain will move into western MO over the next hour or so,
and most indications are that ceilings will drop into IFR once the
rain ends. It may take them a while to lift out of IFR, possibly not
until late this afternoon, with gradual improvement into VFR after
dark.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200826
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Widespread rain will track across the entire forecast area from west
to east through much of the morning. Interaction of a 35-kt LLJ and
an elevated boundary near the I-70 corridor is bringing some
frontogenetical enhancement to some of this rain especially around
the I-70 area. It wouldn`t be surprising to see a few rumbles of
thunder and a few rainfall amounts as high as one inch across these
areas, otherwise steady rain and rainfall amounts around a half inch
will be the general rule for most of the forecast area. Precipitation
should taper off pretty quickly from west to east later this morning
as isentropic upglide quickly transitions to downglide and the main
upper wave pushes to the east. However, thick low clouds will linger
through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the
lower 50s. These clouds will likely stick around for much of the
night, but if they clear out quickly enough there could be a few
areas of fog.

A period of zonal upper flow will keep things dry for Thursday and
most of Friday, while a large area of high pressure across much of
the Northern and Central U.S. keeps things seasonably cool with highs
in the 60s. This will also keep a surface boundary confined well to
our south across the Gulf Coast states.

Southwest upper flow returns to the region this weekend into early
next week which will bring a return to a wet pattern. Light rain may
make it as far east as eastern KS Friday and Friday night, but will
struggle to make it much further than that as it encounters a
sprawling surface high over the Midwest. This high will gradually
move well to the east by Saturday evening which will allow higher
moisture and rain chances to spread into more of the forecast area.
Better chances for more widespread thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
into Monday when the main upper trough to the west approaches.
Upper-level wind fields don`t appear particularly strong during this
time, so any severe weather potential may end up highly dependent on
how unstable the atmosphere can get. Bigger concern may be additional
heavy rain and possible flooding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has been falling across eastern to central KS tonight,
spreading into NW MO with STJ reporting light rain earlier this
evening. Despite the radar being lit up tonight, much of the
precip aloft is not reaching the ground within the vicinity of the
other three terminals but this is expected to change as the night
progresses. Best rain chances should be impacting the terminals
between around 08Z through 11Z (give or take an hour) with the
lowest ceilings and visbys anticipated around dawn Wednesday
morning. The OVC skies aren`t looking to go anywhere throughout
the day on Wed. into Wed. night. Winds will be easterly to
northeasterly throughout this TAF period with winds picking up
tonight, then slackening a bit toward the end of the TAF period as
high pressure starts building in from the west.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200529
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Large area of precipitation over central Kansas extending southward
into Oklahoma has made steady progress east today. Northeast low-level
flow advecting cool and relatively dry air into the area most of the
day will likely keep the threat for precipitation to the west of the
forecast area until late this evening over far eastern Kansas and
western Missouri and well after midnight over central and north
central Missouri. Best instability remains to the south of forecast
area with surface low, while upper low and associated dynamics lifts
into the northern plains. As a result thunder threat appears minimal
and should be confined to areas south of the area.

As showers end from west to east tomorrow and cool Canadian high pressure
settles into the region, temperatures will remain well below normal
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Although drier and a bit warmer
conditions are expected for Thursday and the first part of Friday
temperatures will still remain below normal.

By late Friday, another upper low will settle into the southwest
United States allowing for a return to more general southwest flow
across the region. In response temperatures should warm this weekend,
but precipitation chances will also be on the increase late in the
day on Friday. As pieces of energy eject from the upper low over the
weekend periodic chances of thunderstorms are expected. Antecedent
ground conditions due to heavy rains last weekend combined with the
forecast return of low- level moisture this weekend could lead to
more local flooding across the area. At this time the best chance for
storms appears to be on Sunday night as main upper trough ejects out
into the central Plains, however will need to monitor future model
runs and see how timing/placement evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has been falling across eastern to central KS tonight,
spreading into NW MO with STJ reporting light rain earlier this
evening. Despite the radar being lit up tonight, much of the
precip aloft is not reaching the ground within the vicinity of the
other three terminals but this is expected to change as the night
progresses. Best rain chances should be impacting the terminals
between around 08Z through 11Z (give or take an hour) with the
lowest ceilings and visbys anticipated around dawn Wednesday
morning. The OVC skies aren`t looking to go anywhere throughout
the day on Wed. into Wed. night. Winds will be easterly to
northeasterly throughout this TAF period with winds picking up
tonight, then slackening a bit toward the end of the TAF period as
high pressure starts building in from the west.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 200529
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Large area of precipitation over central Kansas extending southward
into Oklahoma has made steady progress east today. Northeast low-level
flow advecting cool and relatively dry air into the area most of the
day will likely keep the threat for precipitation to the west of the
forecast area until late this evening over far eastern Kansas and
western Missouri and well after midnight over central and north
central Missouri. Best instability remains to the south of forecast
area with surface low, while upper low and associated dynamics lifts
into the northern plains. As a result thunder threat appears minimal
and should be confined to areas south of the area.

As showers end from west to east tomorrow and cool Canadian high pressure
settles into the region, temperatures will remain well below normal
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Although drier and a bit warmer
conditions are expected for Thursday and the first part of Friday
temperatures will still remain below normal.

By late Friday, another upper low will settle into the southwest
United States allowing for a return to more general southwest flow
across the region. In response temperatures should warm this weekend,
but precipitation chances will also be on the increase late in the
day on Friday. As pieces of energy eject from the upper low over the
weekend periodic chances of thunderstorms are expected. Antecedent
ground conditions due to heavy rains last weekend combined with the
forecast return of low- level moisture this weekend could lead to
more local flooding across the area. At this time the best chance for
storms appears to be on Sunday night as main upper trough ejects out
into the central Plains, however will need to monitor future model
runs and see how timing/placement evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has been falling across eastern to central KS tonight,
spreading into NW MO with STJ reporting light rain earlier this
evening. Despite the radar being lit up tonight, much of the
precip aloft is not reaching the ground within the vicinity of the
other three terminals but this is expected to change as the night
progresses. Best rain chances should be impacting the terminals
between around 08Z through 11Z (give or take an hour) with the
lowest ceilings and visbys anticipated around dawn Wednesday
morning. The OVC skies aren`t looking to go anywhere throughout
the day on Wed. into Wed. night. Winds will be easterly to
northeasterly throughout this TAF period with winds picking up
tonight, then slackening a bit toward the end of the TAF period as
high pressure starts building in from the west.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192354
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Large area of precipitation over central Kansas extending southward
into Oklahoma has made steady progress east today. Northeast low-level
flow advecting cool and relatively dry air into the area most of the
day will likely keep the threat for precipitation to the west of the
forecast area until late this evening over far eastern Kansas and
western Missouri and well after midnight over central and north
central Missouri. Best instability remains to the south of forecast
area with surface low, while upper low and associated dynamics lifts
into the northern plains. As a result thunder threat appears minimal
and should be confined to areas south of the area.

As showers end from west to east tomorrow and cool Canadian high pressure
settles into the region, temperatures will remain well below normal
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Although drier and a bit warmer
conditions are expected for Thursday and the first part of Friday
temperatures will still remain below normal.

By late Friday, another upper low will settle into the southwest
United States allowing for a return to more general southwest flow
across the region. In response temperatures should warm this weekend,
but precipitation chances will also be on the increase late in the
day on Friday. As pieces of energy eject from the upper low over the
weekend periodic chances of thunderstorms are expected. Antecedent
ground conditions due to heavy rains last weekend combined with the
forecast return of low- level moisture this weekend could lead to
more local flooding across the area. At this time the best chance for
storms appears to be on Sunday night as main upper trough ejects out
into the central Plains, however will need to monitor future model
runs and see how timing/placement evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Rain currently encompassing much of eastern KS is slowly making
its way into the four terminal areas, although is still not
looking to fall until closer to midnight. As the overnight period
progresses, ceilings and visbys will lower, with the morning hours
on Wednesday being the most impactful to aviation operations and
interests. The bulk of the rain should be moving out of the
terminal areas by midday tomorrow with perhaps just some lingering
showers left behind, along with overcast skies. Northeasterly
winds will dominate throughout much of the TAF period with winds
increasing a bit in the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...lg








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