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000
FXUS63 KEAX 010501
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z time frame if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Issues to watch will be the onset of strong and gusty winds Wednesday
morning as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front due
through the region late Wednesday night. Thunderstorms will be
likely, but not till after the end of the current TAF cycle, so have
introduced VCTS as a hedge in case storms get here a little early.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter













000
FXUS63 KEAX 010501
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z time frame if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Issues to watch will be the onset of strong and gusty winds Wednesday
morning as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front due
through the region late Wednesday night. Thunderstorms will be
likely, but not till after the end of the current TAF cycle, so have
introduced VCTS as a hedge in case storms get here a little early.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter












000
FXUS63 KEAX 010501
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z time frame if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Issues to watch will be the onset of strong and gusty winds Wednesday
morning as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front due
through the region late Wednesday night. Thunderstorms will be
likely, but not till after the end of the current TAF cycle, so have
introduced VCTS as a hedge in case storms get here a little early.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter













000
FXUS63 KEAX 010501
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z time frame if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Issues to watch will be the onset of strong and gusty winds Wednesday
morning as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front due
through the region late Wednesday night. Thunderstorms will be
likely, but not till after the end of the current TAF cycle, so have
introduced VCTS as a hedge in case storms get here a little early.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter












000
FXUS63 KEAX 010020
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
720 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z time frame if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Only issue to
watch will be the wind as it veers around to the southeast and
becomes gusty Wednesday. Thunderstorms look likely Wednesday night,
but their onset time is currently just beyond the end of this TAF
cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter









000
FXUS63 KEAX 010020
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
720 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z time frame if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Only issue to
watch will be the wind as it veers around to the southeast and
becomes gusty Wednesday. Thunderstorms look likely Wednesday night,
but their onset time is currently just beyond the end of this TAF
cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 010020
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
720 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z time frame if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Only issue to
watch will be the wind as it veers around to the southeast and
becomes gusty Wednesday. Thunderstorms look likely Wednesday night,
but their onset time is currently just beyond the end of this TAF
cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 010020
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
720 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z time frame if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Only issue to
watch will be the wind as it veers around to the southeast and
becomes gusty Wednesday. Thunderstorms look likely Wednesday night,
but their onset time is currently just beyond the end of this TAF
cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter









000
FXUS63 KEAX 311959
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
259 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z timeframe if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311959
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
259 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z timeframe if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 311706
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311706
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 311706
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311706
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 311127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Northeast winds
of 4-8 kts will gradually shift to the southeast overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Northeast winds
of 4-8 kts will gradually shift to the southeast overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 310834
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 310834
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310834
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 310450
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 310450
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 302339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 302339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302021
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 302021
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 302021
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301709
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301709
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Winds will increase
from the southwest with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the
afternoon. Overnight...a weak front will move through the area which
will allow winds to veer after the 6z time frame. Aside from some
high clouds early this morning...skies should remain mostly cloud
free.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Winds will increase
from the southwest with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the
afternoon. Overnight...a weak front will move through the area which
will allow winds to veer after the 6z time frame. Aside from some
high clouds early this morning...skies should remain mostly cloud
free.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Winds will increase
from the southwest with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the
afternoon. Overnight...a weak front will move through the area which
will allow winds to veer after the 6z time frame. Aside from some
high clouds early this morning...skies should remain mostly cloud
free.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Winds will increase
from the southwest with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the
afternoon. Overnight...a weak front will move through the area which
will allow winds to veer after the 6z time frame. Aside from some
high clouds early this morning...skies should remain mostly cloud
free.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 300823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 292331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be winds as the gusty northwest wind this
evening goes a bit light overnight as it backs to the southeast. This
southeast wind might be able to get a bit gusty Monday afternoon with
an increase in the regional pressure gradient and afternoon boundary
layer mixing.

&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 292331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be winds as the gusty northwest wind this
evening goes a bit light overnight as it backs to the southeast. This
southeast wind might be able to get a bit gusty Monday afternoon with
an increase in the regional pressure gradient and afternoon boundary
layer mixing.

&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 292023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 292023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 292023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 292023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291733
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.

Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.

The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291733
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.

Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.

The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291733
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.

Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.

The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291733
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.

Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.

The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291042
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.

Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.

The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There may be a few
showers passing through this morning but cloud bases will remain
fairly high. Strong southerly winds will veer to the southwest and
eventually switch to the northwest this afternoon in the wake of cold
front. Winds may gust as high as 25 to 30 kts both ahead of and after
the frontal passage. Winds are expected decrease this evening and
skies should clear out as well as high pressure moves overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
FIRE WEATHER...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291042
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.

Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.

The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There may be a few
showers passing through this morning but cloud bases will remain
fairly high. Strong southerly winds will veer to the southwest and
eventually switch to the northwest this afternoon in the wake of cold
front. Winds may gust as high as 25 to 30 kts both ahead of and after
the frontal passage. Winds are expected decrease this evening and
skies should clear out as well as high pressure moves overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
FIRE WEATHER...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 290817
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.

Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.

The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions early this morning may give way to MVFR skies around
sunrise as a front approaches the region and moves through. There
will be a threat of some showers, but the best bet for storms looks
to be east of the terminals. Otherwise, winds will be the big issue
today as the overnight gusty winds, currently at the terminals, will
only get stronger after sunrise. Winds will start the morning from
the south, veering to the west and northwest later in the morning.
Pressure gradient induced winds, and afternoon boundary layer mixing,
could push gusts up to 30 knots for a period. Expect wind speeds to
ease up around sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 290817
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.

Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.

The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions early this morning may give way to MVFR skies around
sunrise as a front approaches the region and moves through. There
will be a threat of some showers, but the best bet for storms looks
to be east of the terminals. Otherwise, winds will be the big issue
today as the overnight gusty winds, currently at the terminals, will
only get stronger after sunrise. Winds will start the morning from
the south, veering to the west and northwest later in the morning.
Pressure gradient induced winds, and afternoon boundary layer mixing,
could push gusts up to 30 knots for a period. Expect wind speeds to
ease up around sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290817
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.

Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.

The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions early this morning may give way to MVFR skies around
sunrise as a front approaches the region and moves through. There
will be a threat of some showers, but the best bet for storms looks
to be east of the terminals. Otherwise, winds will be the big issue
today as the overnight gusty winds, currently at the terminals, will
only get stronger after sunrise. Winds will start the morning from
the south, veering to the west and northwest later in the morning.
Pressure gradient induced winds, and afternoon boundary layer mixing,
could push gusts up to 30 knots for a period. Expect wind speeds to
ease up around sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...CDB








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