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000
FXUS63 KEAX 280455
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and isolated storms will continue to build east overnight,
impacting terminals starting between 08z-10z, and continuing into
mid-morning. A break in precipitation is still expected between 16z
and mid-afternoon Friday, then scattered storms will develop and
move near the terminals for late afternoon through early overnight.
Once the timing and placement of convection becomes clearer Friday
evening, may need a prevailing TSRA group added for all sites. Cold
frontal passage should occur near or just beyond the end of the TAF
period, veering winds sharply to the north northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 280455
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and isolated storms will continue to build east overnight,
impacting terminals starting between 08z-10z, and continuing into
mid-morning. A break in precipitation is still expected between 16z
and mid-afternoon Friday, then scattered storms will develop and
move near the terminals for late afternoon through early overnight.
Once the timing and placement of convection becomes clearer Friday
evening, may need a prevailing TSRA group added for all sites. Cold
frontal passage should occur near or just beyond the end of the TAF
period, veering winds sharply to the north northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 272357
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm will be possible
again at all terminals by 03z-04z, then will become more probable
after 08z as a complex moves in from the west. A short break in
precipitation is possible between 16z-mid afternoon, then another
round of showers and storms will be possible from 21z onward at all
TAF sites. Ceilings and visibilities will be mainly VFR except in
periods of heavier precipitation, and winds will veer and increase
out of the southwest during the daylight hours Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 272357
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm will be possible
again at all terminals by 03z-04z, then will become more probable
after 08z as a complex moves in from the west. A short break in
precipitation is possible between 16z-mid afternoon, then another
round of showers and storms will be possible from 21z onward at all
TAF sites. Ceilings and visibilities will be mainly VFR except in
periods of heavier precipitation, and winds will veer and increase
out of the southwest during the daylight hours Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 272357
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm will be possible
again at all terminals by 03z-04z, then will become more probable
after 08z as a complex moves in from the west. A short break in
precipitation is possible between 16z-mid afternoon, then another
round of showers and storms will be possible from 21z onward at all
TAF sites. Ceilings and visibilities will be mainly VFR except in
periods of heavier precipitation, and winds will veer and increase
out of the southwest during the daylight hours Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 272038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of slowly low center located over
south central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has
been a bit slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over
a majority of the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas within
northern Missouri, though this too, will eventually begin to break
up by the early evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the mid-level ridge to the
west will be the primary factor affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however.
Given the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for
widespread convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with
preciptable water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the
better forcing over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy
rainfall in this region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief
cooling trend will commence Saturday before return southerly flow
will bring increasing temperatures through the early week. At that
time, broad mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended
drying trend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 272038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of slowly low center located over
south central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has
been a bit slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over
a majority of the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas within
northern Missouri, though this too, will eventually begin to break
up by the early evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the mid-level ridge to the
west will be the primary factor affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however.
Given the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for
widespread convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with
preciptable water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the
better forcing over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy
rainfall in this region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief
cooling trend will commence Saturday before return southerly flow
will bring increasing temperatures through the early week. At that
time, broad mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended
drying trend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 272038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of slowly low center located over
south central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has
been a bit slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over
a majority of the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas within
northern Missouri, though this too, will eventually begin to break
up by the early evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the mid-level ridge to the
west will be the primary factor affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however.
Given the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for
widespread convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with
preciptable water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the
better forcing over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy
rainfall in this region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief
cooling trend will commence Saturday before return southerly flow
will bring increasing temperatures through the early week. At that
time, broad mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended
drying trend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 271737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 271737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 271737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 271737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 271055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Thunderstorms developed rapidly this morning but their motions are
nearly north to south. So storms west of the terminals won`t really
have an impact. Rather, it will take new development further east to
cause an impact at any of the terminals. For now, it looks like
storms have the greatest chance of moving into the KMKC and KIXD
terminals. So have included a TSRA mention over the next few hours.
Otherwise, convection looks scattered enough to keep a VCTS group
going through late this morning for the other sites. Convection
should diminish by late morning and give way to VFR conditions with
southerly winds. There will be another chance for storms late
tonight. Timing of this may be after midnight so for now have just
carried a VCTS for the overnight period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 271055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Thunderstorms developed rapidly this morning but their motions are
nearly north to south. So storms west of the terminals won`t really
have an impact. Rather, it will take new development further east to
cause an impact at any of the terminals. For now, it looks like
storms have the greatest chance of moving into the KMKC and KIXD
terminals. So have included a TSRA mention over the next few hours.
Otherwise, convection looks scattered enough to keep a VCTS group
going through late this morning for the other sites. Convection
should diminish by late morning and give way to VFR conditions with
southerly winds. There will be another chance for storms late
tonight. Timing of this may be after midnight so for now have just
carried a VCTS for the overnight period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB





000
FXUS63 KEAX 271055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Thunderstorms developed rapidly this morning but their motions are
nearly north to south. So storms west of the terminals won`t really
have an impact. Rather, it will take new development further east to
cause an impact at any of the terminals. For now, it looks like
storms have the greatest chance of moving into the KMKC and KIXD
terminals. So have included a TSRA mention over the next few hours.
Otherwise, convection looks scattered enough to keep a VCTS group
going through late this morning for the other sites. Convection
should diminish by late morning and give way to VFR conditions with
southerly winds. There will be another chance for storms late
tonight. Timing of this may be after midnight so for now have just
carried a VCTS for the overnight period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...PMM




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...PMM





000
FXUS63 KEAX 270437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM





000
FXUS63 KEAX 262324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There is
the chance for showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS and
western MO by 12Z tomorrow morning. This activity looks to persist
for several hours before dissipating. The terminals look to be on the
edge of this activity so have kept VCTS for now. Southeasterly winds
will pick up and remain gusty tomorrow afternoon as pressure gradient
strengthens across eastern KS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM





000
FXUS63 KEAX 262324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There is
the chance for showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS and
western MO by 12Z tomorrow morning. This activity looks to persist
for several hours before dissipating. The terminals look to be on the
edge of this activity so have kept VCTS for now. Southeasterly winds
will pick up and remain gusty tomorrow afternoon as pressure gradient
strengthens across eastern KS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM




000
FXUS63 KEAX 262324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There is
the chance for showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS and
western MO by 12Z tomorrow morning. This activity looks to persist
for several hours before dissipating. The terminals look to be on the
edge of this activity so have kept VCTS for now. Southeasterly winds
will pick up and remain gusty tomorrow afternoon as pressure gradient
strengthens across eastern KS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM




000
FXUS63 KEAX 262324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There is
the chance for showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS and
western MO by 12Z tomorrow morning. This activity looks to persist
for several hours before dissipating. The terminals look to be on the
edge of this activity so have kept VCTS for now. Southeasterly winds
will pick up and remain gusty tomorrow afternoon as pressure gradient
strengthens across eastern KS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM





000
FXUS63 KEAX 262031
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ZCZC STLWRKJJW 261928
TTAA00 KSTL DDHHMM

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesay evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable perception across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning,
cooler air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling
period before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Kansas and into perhaps far western Missouri. Terminals look
to remain a bit east of the better rain chances, but will be close
enough to warrant some concern of VCTS.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 262031
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ZCZC STLWRKJJW 261928
TTAA00 KSTL DDHHMM

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesay evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable perception across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning,
cooler air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling
period before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Kansas and into perhaps far western Missouri. Terminals look
to remain a bit east of the better rain chances, but will be close
enough to warrant some concern of VCTS.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 262031
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ZCZC STLWRKJJW 261928
TTAA00 KSTL DDHHMM

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesay evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable perception across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning,
cooler air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling
period before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Kansas and into perhaps far western Missouri. Terminals look
to remain a bit east of the better rain chances, but will be close
enough to warrant some concern of VCTS.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 261803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
air mass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry air mass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler air mass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Kansas and into perhaps far western Missouri. Terminals look
to remain a bit east of the better rain chances, but will be close
enough to warrant some concern of VCTS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 261803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
air mass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry air mass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler air mass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Kansas and into perhaps far western Missouri. Terminals look
to remain a bit east of the better rain chances, but will be close
enough to warrant some concern of VCTS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 261803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
air mass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry air mass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler air mass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Kansas and into perhaps far western Missouri. Terminals look
to remain a bit east of the better rain chances, but will be close
enough to warrant some concern of VCTS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 261803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
air mass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry air mass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler air mass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Kansas and into perhaps far western Missouri. Terminals look
to remain a bit east of the better rain chances, but will be close
enough to warrant some concern of VCTS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 261109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
airmass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry airmass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler airmass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR expected through the period. Probability for shallow river fog at
STJ lower than previous two mornings. Gradual increase in some mid-
level clouds at the end of the period. Isolated convection expected
to remain west of terminals through 12Z Thu.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair





000
FXUS63 KEAX 261109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
airmass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry airmass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler airmass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR expected through the period. Probability for shallow river fog at
STJ lower than previous two mornings. Gradual increase in some mid-
level clouds at the end of the period. Isolated convection expected
to remain west of terminals through 12Z Thu.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KEAX 261109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
airmass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry airmass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler airmass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR expected through the period. Probability for shallow river fog at
STJ lower than previous two mornings. Gradual increase in some mid-
level clouds at the end of the period. Isolated convection expected
to remain west of terminals through 12Z Thu.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KEAX 261109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
airmass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry airmass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler airmass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR expected through the period. Probability for shallow river fog at
STJ lower than previous two mornings. Gradual increase in some mid-
level clouds at the end of the period. Isolated convection expected
to remain west of terminals through 12Z Thu.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair





000
FXUS63 KEAX 260856
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
356 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
airmass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry airmass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler airmass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
a few hours of fog is possible at KSTJ as air temperatures drop well
below MO river water temperatures. Very light east northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and increase to around 6-7 kts during the
morning hours Wednesday. Isolated cumulus with bases around 5 kft
may develop by late morning Wednesday, and will persist through the
early evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 260856
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
356 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
airmass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry airmass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler airmass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
a few hours of fog is possible at KSTJ as air temperatures drop well
below MO river water temperatures. Very light east northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and increase to around 6-7 kts during the
morning hours Wednesday. Isolated cumulus with bases around 5 kft
may develop by late morning Wednesday, and will persist through the
early evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 260856
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
356 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
airmass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry airmass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler airmass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
a few hours of fog is possible at KSTJ as air temperatures drop well
below MO river water temperatures. Very light east northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and increase to around 6-7 kts during the
morning hours Wednesday. Isolated cumulus with bases around 5 kft
may develop by late morning Wednesday, and will persist through the
early evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 260856
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
356 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain in place today, keeping a dry
airmass in place with near seasonable temperatures. Mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s are
expected this afternoon. The surface ridge of high pressure will
gradually shift to the east tonight, although its influence in the
way of retaining a dry airmass in place will continue. Isentropic
ascent will increase over eastern Kansas tonight, and elevated
convection that develops will initially struggle to generate much in
the way of measurable precipitation due to the aforementioned low-
level dry air in place. Still, expect to see a few pockets of
thunderstorms over the far western forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning. Operational members continue to bring a mid-level
wave through the central plains Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the area during the day on
Friday. With marginal moisture and increasing upper ascent/low-level
lift along the front, reason stands to continue the chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. With limited moisture and
modest lapse rates, overall instability axis is expected to remain
narrow along/ahead of the front and relatively low, mitigating most
of the severe weather threat. Measurable precipitation will shift
from west to east of the CWA as the front moves through prior to
midnight Saturday morning. A slightly cooler airmass will briefly
enter the region on Saturday, with maximum readings a few degrees
lower than previous days. Thereafter, a large upper ridge builds
into the center of the country, with dry weather conditions and high
temperatures increasing each day from Sunday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
a few hours of fog is possible at KSTJ as air temperatures drop well
below MO river water temperatures. Very light east northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and increase to around 6-7 kts during the
morning hours Wednesday. Isolated cumulus with bases around 5 kft
may develop by late morning Wednesday, and will persist through the
early evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 260348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging
continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. With sfc
ridge axis once again extending south across the Lwr Missouri
Vly...expect a similar night to to last night...although a degree or
two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the
overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure
once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day.

Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area
early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from
the west. As was stated yesterday...any precip development from
increasing isentropic ascent will likely struggle to reach the
surface as aforementioned sfc ridge axis continues to supply a fair
amount of dry air directly off the deck. Due to model/s consistency
in recent days...have maintained slgt chc mention across the far
northwest early Thurs morning.

Unsettled fcst continues to take shape as we head into the
the Thursday/Friday time frame as shortwave energy consolidates over
the Central Plains and slowly advances east. As this occurs...sfc
low also expected to track east with southward precip development
expected along the lingering warm front. Overall severe weather
chances look marginal based on poor wind fields and instability...but
will continue to monitor later model trends as event timing nears.
Storm chances to continue through the day on Friday as main cold
front advances east...but again...widespread severe continues to look
marginal. Precip to gradually come to an end from west to east as
main frontal boundary moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Once the cold front passes over the CWA, another dry air mass will
filter into the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Given the placement of the cold front as it pushes eastward with
subsequent northerly flow at the surface, a thermal gradient will
develop near the Kansas and Missouri border as return southerly flow
affects much of the Central Plains. By the late weekend, seasonal
temperatures will return as surface high pressure brings about
southerly flow over the area underneath a developing ridge. This
ridge will extend as far north as the Northern Plains through the
late weekend. Temperatures will continue to increase through the
early portions of next week, as the ridge continues to influence the
region. This will keep chances of precipitation to a minimum with
ample dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
a few hours of fog is possible at KSTJ as air temperatures drop well
below MO river water temperatures. Very light east northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and increase to around 6-7 kts during the
morning hours Wednesday. Isolated cumulus with bases around 5 kft
may develop by late morning Wednesday, and will persist through the
early evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 260348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging
continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. With sfc
ridge axis once again extending south across the Lwr Missouri
Vly...expect a similar night to to last night...although a degree or
two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the
overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure
once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day.

Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area
early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from
the west. As was stated yesterday...any precip development from
increasing isentropic ascent will likely struggle to reach the
surface as aforementioned sfc ridge axis continues to supply a fair
amount of dry air directly off the deck. Due to model/s consistency
in recent days...have maintained slgt chc mention across the far
northwest early Thurs morning.

Unsettled fcst continues to take shape as we head into the
the Thursday/Friday time frame as shortwave energy consolidates over
the Central Plains and slowly advances east. As this occurs...sfc
low also expected to track east with southward precip development
expected along the lingering warm front. Overall severe weather
chances look marginal based on poor wind fields and instability...but
will continue to monitor later model trends as event timing nears.
Storm chances to continue through the day on Friday as main cold
front advances east...but again...widespread severe continues to look
marginal. Precip to gradually come to an end from west to east as
main frontal boundary moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Once the cold front passes over the CWA, another dry air mass will
filter into the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Given the placement of the cold front as it pushes eastward with
subsequent northerly flow at the surface, a thermal gradient will
develop near the Kansas and Missouri border as return southerly flow
affects much of the Central Plains. By the late weekend, seasonal
temperatures will return as surface high pressure brings about
southerly flow over the area underneath a developing ridge. This
ridge will extend as far north as the Northern Plains through the
late weekend. Temperatures will continue to increase through the
early portions of next week, as the ridge continues to influence the
region. This will keep chances of precipitation to a minimum with
ample dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
a few hours of fog is possible at KSTJ as air temperatures drop well
below MO river water temperatures. Very light east northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and increase to around 6-7 kts during the
morning hours Wednesday. Isolated cumulus with bases around 5 kft
may develop by late morning Wednesday, and will persist through the
early evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 252318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging
continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. With sfc
ridge axis once again extending south across the Lwr Missouri
Vly...expect a similar night to to last night...although a degree or
two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the
overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure
once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day.

Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area
early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from
the west. As was stated yesterday...any precip development from
increasing isentropic ascent will likely struggle to reach the
surface as aforementioned sfc ridge axis continues to supply a fair
amount of dry air directly off the deck. Due to model/s consistency
in recent days...have maintained slgt chc mention across the far
northwest early Thurs morning.

Unsettled fcst continues to take shape as we head into the
the Thursday/Friday time frame as shortwave energy consolidates over
the Central Plains and slowly advances east. As this occurs...sfc
low also expected to track east with southward precip development
expected along the lingering warm front. Overall severe weather
chances look marginal based on poor wind fields and instability...but
will continue to monitor later model trends as event timing nears.
Storm chances to continue through the day on Friday as main cold
front advances east...but again...widespread severe continues to look
marginal. Precip to gradually come to an end from west to east as
main frontal boundary moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Once the cold front passes over the CWA, another dry air mass will
filter into the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Given the placement of the cold front as it pushes eastward with
subsequent northerly flow at the surface, a thermal gradient will
develop near the Kansas and Missouri border as return southerly flow
affects much of the Central Plains. By the late weekend, seasonal
temperatures will return as surface high pressure brings about
southerly flow over the area underneath a developing ridge. This
ridge will extend as far north as the Northern Plains through the
late weekend. Temperatures will continue to increase through the
early portions of next week, as the ridge continues to influence the
region. This will keep chances of precipitation to a minimum with
ample dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period,
although a period of light valley fog is possible at KSTJ during the
early morning hours Wednesday. Winds will be very light and gradually
veer to the east southeast overnight, then should increase out of the
southeast to about 6-7 kts by mid-morning Wednesday. Isolated cumulus
may develop by late Wednesday morning, with bases around 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 252318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging
continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. With sfc
ridge axis once again extending south across the Lwr Missouri
Vly...expect a similar night to to last night...although a degree or
two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the
overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure
once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day.

Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area
early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from
the west. As was stated yesterday...any precip development from
increasing isentropic ascent will likely struggle to reach the
surface as aforementioned sfc ridge axis continues to supply a fair
amount of dry air directly off the deck. Due to model/s consistency
in recent days...have maintained slgt chc mention across the far
northwest early Thurs morning.

Unsettled fcst continues to take shape as we head into the
the Thursday/Friday time frame as shortwave energy consolidates over
the Central Plains and slowly advances east. As this occurs...sfc
low also expected to track east with southward precip development
expected along the lingering warm front. Overall severe weather
chances look marginal based on poor wind fields and instability...but
will continue to monitor later model trends as event timing nears.
Storm chances to continue through the day on Friday as main cold
front advances east...but again...widespread severe continues to look
marginal. Precip to gradually come to an end from west to east as
main frontal boundary moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Once the cold front passes over the CWA, another dry air mass will
filter into the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Given the placement of the cold front as it pushes eastward with
subsequent northerly flow at the surface, a thermal gradient will
develop near the Kansas and Missouri border as return southerly flow
affects much of the Central Plains. By the late weekend, seasonal
temperatures will return as surface high pressure brings about
southerly flow over the area underneath a developing ridge. This
ridge will extend as far north as the Northern Plains through the
late weekend. Temperatures will continue to increase through the
early portions of next week, as the ridge continues to influence the
region. This will keep chances of precipitation to a minimum with
ample dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period,
although a period of light valley fog is possible at KSTJ during the
early morning hours Wednesday. Winds will be very light and gradually
veer to the east southeast overnight, then should increase out of the
southeast to about 6-7 kts by mid-morning Wednesday. Isolated cumulus
may develop by late Wednesday morning, with bases around 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 252318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging
continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. With sfc
ridge axis once again extending south across the Lwr Missouri
Vly...expect a similar night to to last night...although a degree or
two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the
overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure
once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day.

Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area
early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from
the west. As was stated yesterday...any precip development from
increasing isentropic ascent will likely struggle to reach the
surface as aforementioned sfc ridge axis continues to supply a fair
amount of dry air directly off the deck. Due to model/s consistency
in recent days...have maintained slgt chc mention across the far
northwest early Thurs morning.

Unsettled fcst continues to take shape as we head into the
the Thursday/Friday time frame as shortwave energy consolidates over
the Central Plains and slowly advances east. As this occurs...sfc
low also expected to track east with southward precip development
expected along the lingering warm front. Overall severe weather
chances look marginal based on poor wind fields and instability...but
will continue to monitor later model trends as event timing nears.
Storm chances to continue through the day on Friday as main cold
front advances east...but again...widespread severe continues to look
marginal. Precip to gradually come to an end from west to east as
main frontal boundary moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Once the cold front passes over the CWA, another dry air mass will
filter into the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Given the placement of the cold front as it pushes eastward with
subsequent northerly flow at the surface, a thermal gradient will
develop near the Kansas and Missouri border as return southerly flow
affects much of the Central Plains. By the late weekend, seasonal
temperatures will return as surface high pressure brings about
southerly flow over the area underneath a developing ridge. This
ridge will extend as far north as the Northern Plains through the
late weekend. Temperatures will continue to increase through the
early portions of next week, as the ridge continues to influence the
region. This will keep chances of precipitation to a minimum with
ample dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period,
although a period of light valley fog is possible at KSTJ during the
early morning hours Wednesday. Winds will be very light and gradually
veer to the east southeast overnight, then should increase out of the
southeast to about 6-7 kts by mid-morning Wednesday. Isolated cumulus
may develop by late Wednesday morning, with bases around 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 252318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging
continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. With sfc
ridge axis once again extending south across the Lwr Missouri
Vly...expect a similar night to to last night...although a degree or
two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the
overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure
once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day.

Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area
early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from
the west. As was stated yesterday...any precip development from
increasing isentropic ascent will likely struggle to reach the
surface as aforementioned sfc ridge axis continues to supply a fair
amount of dry air directly off the deck. Due to model/s consistency
in recent days...have maintained slgt chc mention across the far
northwest early Thurs morning.

Unsettled fcst continues to take shape as we head into the
the Thursday/Friday time frame as shortwave energy consolidates over
the Central Plains and slowly advances east. As this occurs...sfc
low also expected to track east with southward precip development
expected along the lingering warm front. Overall severe weather
chances look marginal based on poor wind fields and instability...but
will continue to monitor later model trends as event timing nears.
Storm chances to continue through the day on Friday as main cold
front advances east...but again...widespread severe continues to look
marginal. Precip to gradually come to an end from west to east as
main frontal boundary moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Once the cold front passes over the CWA, another dry air mass will
filter into the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Given the placement of the cold front as it pushes eastward with
subsequent northerly flow at the surface, a thermal gradient will
develop near the Kansas and Missouri border as return southerly flow
affects much of the Central Plains. By the late weekend, seasonal
temperatures will return as surface high pressure brings about
southerly flow over the area underneath a developing ridge. This
ridge will extend as far north as the Northern Plains through the
late weekend. Temperatures will continue to increase through the
early portions of next week, as the ridge continues to influence the
region. This will keep chances of precipitation to a minimum with
ample dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period,
although a period of light valley fog is possible at KSTJ during the
early morning hours Wednesday. Winds will be very light and gradually
veer to the east southeast overnight, then should increase out of the
southeast to about 6-7 kts by mid-morning Wednesday. Isolated cumulus
may develop by late Wednesday morning, with bases around 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 252005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging
continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. With sfc
ridge axis once again extending south across the Lwr Missouri
Vly...expect a similar night to to last night...although a degree or
two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the
overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure
once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day.

Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area
early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from
the west. As was stated yesterday...any precip development from
increasing isentropic ascent will likely struggle to reach the
surface as aforementioned sfc ridge axis continues to supply a fair
amount of dry air directly off the deck. Due to model/s consistency
in recent days...have maintained slgt chc mention across the far
northwest early Thurs morning.

Unsettled fcst continues to take shape as we head into the
the Thursday/Friday time frame as shortwave energy consolidates over
the Central Plains and slowly advances east. As this occurs...sfc
low also expected to track east with southward precip development
expected along the lingering warm front. Overall severe weather
chances look marginal based on poor wind fields and instability...but
will continue to monitor later model trends as event timing nears.
Storm chances to continue through the day on Friday as main cold
front advances east...but again...widespread severe continues to look
marginal. Precip to gradually come to an end from west to east as
main frontal boundary moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Once the cold front passes over the CWA, another dry air mass will
filter into the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Given the placement of the cold front as it pushes eastward with
subsequent northerly flow at the surface, a thermal gradient will
develop near the Kansas and Missouri border as return southerly flow
affects much of the Central Plains. By the late weekend, seasonal
temperatures will return as surface high pressure brings about
southerly flow over the area underneath a developing ridge. This
ridge will extend as far north as the Northern Plains through the
late weekend. Temperatures will continue to increase through the
early portions of next week, as the ridge continues to influence the
region. This will keep chances of precipitation to a minimum with
ample dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR conditions will persist under the influence of high pressure.
Conditions will once again be conducive for MVFR fog development in
the early morning hours at KSTJ. Otherwise, winds will shift
overnight, though will remain relatively calm through the end of the
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 252005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging
continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. With sfc
ridge axis once again extending south across the Lwr Missouri
Vly...expect a similar night to to last night...although a degree or
two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the
overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure
once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day.

Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area
early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from
the west. As was stated yesterday...any precip development from
increasing isentropic ascent will likely struggle to reach the
surface as aforementioned sfc ridge axis continues to supply a fair
amount of dry air directly off the deck. Due to model/s consistency
in recent days...have maintained slgt chc mention across the far
northwest early Thurs morning.

Unsettled fcst continues to take shape as we head into the
the Thursday/Friday time frame as shortwave energy consolidates over
the Central Plains and slowly advances east. As this occurs...sfc
low also expected to track east with southward precip development
expected along the lingering warm front. Overall severe weather
chances look marginal based on poor wind fields and instability...but
will continue to monitor later model trends as event timing nears.
Storm chances to continue through the day on Friday as main cold
front advances east...but again...widespread severe continues to look
marginal. Precip to gradually come to an end from west to east as
main frontal boundary moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Once the cold front passes over the CWA, another dry air mass will
filter into the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Given the placement of the cold front as it pushes eastward with
subsequent northerly flow at the surface, a thermal gradient will
develop near the Kansas and Missouri border as return southerly flow
affects much of the Central Plains. By the late weekend, seasonal
temperatures will return as surface high pressure brings about
southerly flow over the area underneath a developing ridge. This
ridge will extend as far north as the Northern Plains through the
late weekend. Temperatures will continue to increase through the
early portions of next week, as the ridge continues to influence the
region. This will keep chances of precipitation to a minimum with
ample dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR conditions will persist under the influence of high pressure.
Conditions will once again be conducive for MVFR fog development in
the early morning hours at KSTJ. Otherwise, winds will shift
overnight, though will remain relatively calm through the end of the
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 251644
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR conditions will persist under the influence of high pressure.
Conditions will once again be conducive for MVFR fog development in
the early morning hours at KSTJ. Otherwise, winds will shift
overnight, though will remain relatively calm through the end of the
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 251644
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR conditions will persist under the influence of high pressure.
Conditions will once again be conducive for MVFR fog development in
the early morning hours at KSTJ. Otherwise, winds will shift
overnight, though will remain relatively calm through the end of the
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 251052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Shallow river fog has yet to materialize at STJ this morning, and
with still some dewpoint depression and warmer air temperatures than
last night, pessimistic that persistent visibility restrictions will
develop. Still, could see some patchy fog form through 13Z, and have
accounted for such with MVFR temporary conditions. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through the period at terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KEAX 251052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Shallow river fog has yet to materialize at STJ this morning, and
with still some dewpoint depression and warmer air temperatures than
last night, pessimistic that persistent visibility restrictions will
develop. Still, could see some patchy fog form through 13Z, and have
accounted for such with MVFR temporary conditions. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through the period at terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KEAX 251052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Shallow river fog has yet to materialize at STJ this morning, and
with still some dewpoint depression and warmer air temperatures than
last night, pessimistic that persistent visibility restrictions will
develop. Still, could see some patchy fog form through 13Z, and have
accounted for such with MVFR temporary conditions. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through the period at terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair





000
FXUS63 KEAX 251052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Shallow river fog has yet to materialize at STJ this morning, and
with still some dewpoint depression and warmer air temperatures than
last night, pessimistic that persistent visibility restrictions will
develop. Still, could see some patchy fog form through 13Z, and have
accounted for such with MVFR temporary conditions. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through the period at terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair





000
FXUS63 KEAX 250844
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR conds will cont at the TAF sites thru the period with the
exception of STJ which will experience steam fog. Expect fog at STJ btn
09Z-13Z with vsbys occasionally being reduced to 1/4SM. Otrw expect
lgt northerly winds thru the period at all the TAF sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...73





000
FXUS63 KEAX 250844
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR conds will cont at the TAF sites thru the period with the
exception of STJ which will experience steam fog. Expect fog at STJ btn
09Z-13Z with vsbys occasionally being reduced to 1/4SM. Otrw expect
lgt northerly winds thru the period at all the TAF sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...73




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