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000
FXUS63 KEAX 292119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
419 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 292119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
419 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours across the terminals
in western Missouri. Expect a modest northwest wind through the
period also. Otherwise, wind might become slightly gusty this
afternoon with boundary layer mixing, though in general the
prevailing speed will remain under 12 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours across the terminals
in western Missouri. Expect a modest northwest wind through the
period also. Otherwise, wind might become slightly gusty this
afternoon with boundary layer mixing, though in general the
prevailing speed will remain under 12 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours across the terminals
in western Missouri. Expect a modest northwest wind through the
period also. Otherwise, wind might become slightly gusty this
afternoon with boundary layer mixing, though in general the
prevailing speed will remain under 12 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours across the terminals
in western Missouri. Expect a modest northwest wind through the
period also. Otherwise, wind might become slightly gusty this
afternoon with boundary layer mixing, though in general the
prevailing speed will remain under 12 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 290500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 282350
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Not anticipating any flight restrictions for the next 24 hours. There
could be a few winds gusts during the afternoon on Monday, but it`s
unlikely that these conditions will persist all afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 282350
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Not anticipating any flight restrictions for the next 24 hours. There
could be a few winds gusts during the afternoon on Monday, but it`s
unlikely that these conditions will persist all afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to sweep southeast through the TAF sites, and
should clear through KIXD last between 1900z-1930z. Storms are not
expected to reinitiate along the front until after it passes through
the KC area, so VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Winds will veer to the northwest as the front passes and may briefly
gust to 20 kts, but will become lighter out of the NW this evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281738
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to sweep southeast through the TAF sites, and
should clear through KIXD last between 1900z-1930z. Storms are not
expected to reinitiate along the front until after it passes through
the KC area, so VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Winds will veer to the northwest as the front passes and may briefly
gust to 20 kts, but will become lighter out of the NW this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281738
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to sweep southeast through the TAF sites, and
should clear through KIXD last between 1900z-1930z. Storms are not
expected to reinitiate along the front until after it passes through
the KC area, so VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Winds will veer to the northwest as the front passes and may briefly
gust to 20 kts, but will become lighter out of the NW this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280812
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280812
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 272327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the longwave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated through the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty
winds will pick up in the afternoon hours on Sunday, but should be
intermittent.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the longwave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated through the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty
winds will pick up in the afternoon hours on Sunday, but should be
intermittent.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 272327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the longwave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated through the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty
winds will pick up in the afternoon hours on Sunday, but should be
intermittent.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the longwave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated through the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty
winds will pick up in the afternoon hours on Sunday, but should be
intermittent.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 272023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the longwave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A few isolated showers possible this afternoon...however, much of the
activity will be east of the terminals. Convection will dissipate
near sunset before clearing over night. Winds will become more
southerly by tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM









000
FXUS63 KEAX 271745
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things
generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms
during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back
side of a Great Lakes upper trough. Lapse rates will keep instability
very limited today so any activity that does develop should be
isolated and weak. Otherwise mostly sunny skies will be the rule
today with seasonably pleasant temperatures around 80.

A stronger upper wave will rotate into the area on Sunday and send a
weak front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
Winds won`t return from the south/southwest until about 12 hours
before frontal passage so there won`t be a lot of time for
significant moisture advection into the region. This will be the
primary limiting factor for any strong or widespread storms along the
front. However, shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms,
possibly even supercells, so we`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday`s
severe potential in case moisture and instability ends up a bit
higher than forecast. NAM is being particularly aggressive with
moisture pooling ahead of the front, bringing mid 70s dewpoints into
the region which produce CAPE values as high as 3500 J/kg in the
model. This seems a bit high given the limited time for such moisture
to advect in, but the NAM has been correct with pre-frontal moisture
pooling with other systems this season so we`ll see.

Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday while warmer air
spreading in off the High Plains will keep things seasonably warm
with temperatures in the upper 80s. A slight deamplification of
northwesterly upper flow by midweek will place the forecast area in a
potentially stormier pattern which could last into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A few isolated showers possible this afternoon...however, much of the
activity will be east of the terminals. Convection will dissipate
near sunset before clearing over night. Winds will become more
southerly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271745
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things
generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms
during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back
side of a Great Lakes upper trough. Lapse rates will keep instability
very limited today so any activity that does develop should be
isolated and weak. Otherwise mostly sunny skies will be the rule
today with seasonably pleasant temperatures around 80.

A stronger upper wave will rotate into the area on Sunday and send a
weak front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
Winds won`t return from the south/southwest until about 12 hours
before frontal passage so there won`t be a lot of time for
significant moisture advection into the region. This will be the
primary limiting factor for any strong or widespread storms along the
front. However, shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms,
possibly even supercells, so we`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday`s
severe potential in case moisture and instability ends up a bit
higher than forecast. NAM is being particularly aggressive with
moisture pooling ahead of the front, bringing mid 70s dewpoints into
the region which produce CAPE values as high as 3500 J/kg in the
model. This seems a bit high given the limited time for such moisture
to advect in, but the NAM has been correct with pre-frontal moisture
pooling with other systems this season so we`ll see.

Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday while warmer air
spreading in off the High Plains will keep things seasonably warm
with temperatures in the upper 80s. A slight deamplification of
northwesterly upper flow by midweek will place the forecast area in a
potentially stormier pattern which could last into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A few isolated showers possible this afternoon...however, much of the
activity will be east of the terminals. Convection will dissipate
near sunset before clearing over night. Winds will become more
southerly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things
generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms
during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back
side of a Great Lakes upper trough. Lapse rates will keep instability
very limited today so any activity that does develop should be
isolated and weak. Otherwise mostly sunny skies will be the rule
today with seasonably pleasant temperatures around 80.

A stronger upper wave will rotate into the area on Sunday and send a
weak front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
Winds won`t return from the south/southwest until about 12 hours
before frontal passage so there won`t be a lot of time for
significant moisture advection into the region. This will be the
primary limiting factor for any strong or widespread storms along the
front. However, shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms,
possibly even supercells, so we`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday`s
severe potential in case moisture and instability ends up a bit
higher than forecast. NAM is being particularly aggressive with
moisture pooling ahead of the front, bringing mid 70s dewpoints into
the region which produce CAPE values as high as 3500 J/kg in the
model. This seems a bit high given the limited time for such moisture
to advect in, but the NAM has been correct with pre-frontal moisture
pooling with other systems this season so we`ll see.

Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday while warmer air
spreading in off the High Plains will keep things seasonably warm
with temperatures in the upper 80s. A slight deamplification of
northwesterly upper flow by midweek will place the forecast area in a
potentially stormier pattern which could last into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Could see isolated showers or a storm over parts of MO today but
mostly to the east of KC and coverage will be very light. Otherwise
dry weather through the period with light north winds switching from
the south this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things
generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms
during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back
side of a Great Lakes upper trough. Lapse rates will keep instability
very limited today so any activity that does develop should be
isolated and weak. Otherwise mostly sunny skies will be the rule
today with seasonably pleasant temperatures around 80.

A stronger upper wave will rotate into the area on Sunday and send a
weak front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
Winds won`t return from the south/southwest until about 12 hours
before frontal passage so there won`t be a lot of time for
significant moisture advection into the region. This will be the
primary limiting factor for any strong or widespread storms along the
front. However, shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms,
possibly even supercells, so we`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday`s
severe potential in case moisture and instability ends up a bit
higher than forecast. NAM is being particularly aggressive with
moisture pooling ahead of the front, bringing mid 70s dewpoints into
the region which produce CAPE values as high as 3500 J/kg in the
model. This seems a bit high given the limited time for such moisture
to advect in, but the NAM has been correct with pre-frontal moisture
pooling with other systems this season so we`ll see.

Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday while warmer air
spreading in off the High Plains will keep things seasonably warm
with temperatures in the upper 80s. A slight deamplification of
northwesterly upper flow by midweek will place the forecast area in a
potentially stormier pattern which could last into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Could see isolated showers or a storm over parts of MO today but
mostly to the east of KC and coverage will be very light. Otherwise
dry weather through the period with light north winds switching from
the south this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270830
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things
generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms
during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back
side of a Great Lakes upper trough. Lapse rates will keep instability
very limited today so any activity that does develop should be
isolated and weak. Otherwise mostly sunny skies will be the rule
today with seasonably pleasant temperatures around 80.

A stronger upper wave will rotate into the area on Sunday and send a
weak front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
Winds won`t return from the south/southwest until about 12 hours
before frontal passage so there won`t be a lot of time for
significant moisture advection into the region. This will be the
primary limiting factor for any strong or widespread storms along the
front. However, shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms,
possibly even supercells, so we`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday`s
severe potential in case moisture and instability ends up a bit
higher than forecast. NAM is being particularly aggressive with
moisture pooling ahead of the front, bringing mid 70s dewpoints into
the region which produce CAPE values as high as 3500 J/kg in the
model. This seems a bit high given the limited time for such moisture
to advect in, but the NAM has been correct with pre-frontal moisture
pooling with other systems this season so we`ll see.

Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday while warmer air
spreading in off the High Plains will keep things seasonably warm
with temperatures in the upper 80s. A slight deamplification of
northwesterly upper flow by midweek will place the forecast area in a
potentially stormier pattern which could last into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Inserted some chances for fog at the terminals around sunrise. Expect
overnight winds to go to near calm with cooler air moving in. Given
the decent amount of low level moisture present from recent rains,
along with clear skies, light winds, and cool temperatures there
could be some patchy fog in the morning. Don`t expect this to be a
widespread fog event, so handled it with a tempo for MVFR VIS, but
there is an outside chance that IFR conditions could be met very
briefly in the morning. Shortly after sunrise VIS will improve and
VFR conditions are anticipated thereafter.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270830
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things
generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms
during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back
side of a Great Lakes upper trough. Lapse rates will keep instability
very limited today so any activity that does develop should be
isolated and weak. Otherwise mostly sunny skies will be the rule
today with seasonably pleasant temperatures around 80.

A stronger upper wave will rotate into the area on Sunday and send a
weak front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
Winds won`t return from the south/southwest until about 12 hours
before frontal passage so there won`t be a lot of time for
significant moisture advection into the region. This will be the
primary limiting factor for any strong or widespread storms along the
front. However, shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms,
possibly even supercells, so we`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday`s
severe potential in case moisture and instability ends up a bit
higher than forecast. NAM is being particularly aggressive with
moisture pooling ahead of the front, bringing mid 70s dewpoints into
the region which produce CAPE values as high as 3500 J/kg in the
model. This seems a bit high given the limited time for such moisture
to advect in, but the NAM has been correct with pre-frontal moisture
pooling with other systems this season so we`ll see.

Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday while warmer air
spreading in off the High Plains will keep things seasonably warm
with temperatures in the upper 80s. A slight deamplification of
northwesterly upper flow by midweek will place the forecast area in a
potentially stormier pattern which could last into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Inserted some chances for fog at the terminals around sunrise. Expect
overnight winds to go to near calm with cooler air moving in. Given
the decent amount of low level moisture present from recent rains,
along with clear skies, light winds, and cool temperatures there
could be some patchy fog in the morning. Don`t expect this to be a
widespread fog event, so handled it with a tempo for MVFR VIS, but
there is an outside chance that IFR conditions could be met very
briefly in the morning. Shortly after sunrise VIS will improve and
VFR conditions are anticipated thereafter.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270830
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things
generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms
during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back
side of a Great Lakes upper trough. Lapse rates will keep instability
very limited today so any activity that does develop should be
isolated and weak. Otherwise mostly sunny skies will be the rule
today with seasonably pleasant temperatures around 80.

A stronger upper wave will rotate into the area on Sunday and send a
weak front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
Winds won`t return from the south/southwest until about 12 hours
before frontal passage so there won`t be a lot of time for
significant moisture advection into the region. This will be the
primary limiting factor for any strong or widespread storms along the
front. However, shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms,
possibly even supercells, so we`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday`s
severe potential in case moisture and instability ends up a bit
higher than forecast. NAM is being particularly aggressive with
moisture pooling ahead of the front, bringing mid 70s dewpoints into
the region which produce CAPE values as high as 3500 J/kg in the
model. This seems a bit high given the limited time for such moisture
to advect in, but the NAM has been correct with pre-frontal moisture
pooling with other systems this season so we`ll see.

Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday while warmer air
spreading in off the High Plains will keep things seasonably warm
with temperatures in the upper 80s. A slight deamplification of
northwesterly upper flow by midweek will place the forecast area in a
potentially stormier pattern which could last into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Inserted some chances for fog at the terminals around sunrise. Expect
overnight winds to go to near calm with cooler air moving in. Given
the decent amount of low level moisture present from recent rains,
along with clear skies, light winds, and cool temperatures there
could be some patchy fog in the morning. Don`t expect this to be a
widespread fog event, so handled it with a tempo for MVFR VIS, but
there is an outside chance that IFR conditions could be met very
briefly in the morning. Shortly after sunrise VIS will improve and
VFR conditions are anticipated thereafter.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270830
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things
generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms
during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back
side of a Great Lakes upper trough. Lapse rates will keep instability
very limited today so any activity that does develop should be
isolated and weak. Otherwise mostly sunny skies will be the rule
today with seasonably pleasant temperatures around 80.

A stronger upper wave will rotate into the area on Sunday and send a
weak front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
Winds won`t return from the south/southwest until about 12 hours
before frontal passage so there won`t be a lot of time for
significant moisture advection into the region. This will be the
primary limiting factor for any strong or widespread storms along the
front. However, shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms,
possibly even supercells, so we`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday`s
severe potential in case moisture and instability ends up a bit
higher than forecast. NAM is being particularly aggressive with
moisture pooling ahead of the front, bringing mid 70s dewpoints into
the region which produce CAPE values as high as 3500 J/kg in the
model. This seems a bit high given the limited time for such moisture
to advect in, but the NAM has been correct with pre-frontal moisture
pooling with other systems this season so we`ll see.

Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday while warmer air
spreading in off the High Plains will keep things seasonably warm
with temperatures in the upper 80s. A slight deamplification of
northwesterly upper flow by midweek will place the forecast area in a
potentially stormier pattern which could last into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Inserted some chances for fog at the terminals around sunrise. Expect
overnight winds to go to near calm with cooler air moving in. Given
the decent amount of low level moisture present from recent rains,
along with clear skies, light winds, and cool temperatures there
could be some patchy fog in the morning. Don`t expect this to be a
widespread fog event, so handled it with a tempo for MVFR VIS, but
there is an outside chance that IFR conditions could be met very
briefly in the morning. Shortly after sunrise VIS will improve and
VFR conditions are anticipated thereafter.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270505
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through early evening as an upper-level
vorticity maximum associated with a shortwave trough slides through
the area. These storms are expected to dissipate as the feature
departs and as instability decreases diurnally, so expecting the
remainder of the night to be dry. No severe weather is expected, and
showers/storms should be progressive enough and scattered enough that
widespread flooding is not expected on top of what`s already
occurring.

High pressure and cooler temperatures will push into the region for
Saturday, and quiet conditions are expected to continue at least
through Sunday morning. Below normal high temperatures in the upper
70s to lower 80s are anticipated Saturday, before temperatures begin
to gradually warm early next week.

As today`s departing low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes, a
shortwave trough will ride down the back side of the trough and into
eastern Missouri, dragging a weak cold front through the CWA. Storms
are expected with this feature, but the main forcing will stay
mainly east of Hwy 65 in Missouri, keeping the chance for strong
storms mainly across eastern portions of the CWA. Storms are most
likely during the late afternoon through late evening hours as the
front passes through. Temperatures will not be significantly cooler
Monday behind the front, then the warming trend will continue.

The flow pattern will begin to flatten during the mid- to late-work
week, allowing precipitation chances to increase by late in the
forecast period. It`s too early to tell if severe weather is
possible, but currently the pattern looks more supportive of heavy
rain and PWATs increase and a weak boundary lingers around central
Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Inserted some chances for fog at the terminals around sunrise. Expect
overnight winds to go to near calm with cooler air moving in. Given
the decent amount of low level moisture present from recent rains,
along with clear skies, light winds, and cool temperatures there
could be some patchy fog in the morning. Don`t expect this to be a
widespread fog event, so handled it with a tempo for MVFR VIS, but
there is an outside chance that IFR conditions could be met very
briefly in the morning. Shortly after sunrise VIS will improve and
VFR conditions are anticipated thereafter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270505
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through early evening as an upper-level
vorticity maximum associated with a shortwave trough slides through
the area. These storms are expected to dissipate as the feature
departs and as instability decreases diurnally, so expecting the
remainder of the night to be dry. No severe weather is expected, and
showers/storms should be progressive enough and scattered enough that
widespread flooding is not expected on top of what`s already
occurring.

High pressure and cooler temperatures will push into the region for
Saturday, and quiet conditions are expected to continue at least
through Sunday morning. Below normal high temperatures in the upper
70s to lower 80s are anticipated Saturday, before temperatures begin
to gradually warm early next week.

As today`s departing low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes, a
shortwave trough will ride down the back side of the trough and into
eastern Missouri, dragging a weak cold front through the CWA. Storms
are expected with this feature, but the main forcing will stay
mainly east of Hwy 65 in Missouri, keeping the chance for strong
storms mainly across eastern portions of the CWA. Storms are most
likely during the late afternoon through late evening hours as the
front passes through. Temperatures will not be significantly cooler
Monday behind the front, then the warming trend will continue.

The flow pattern will begin to flatten during the mid- to late-work
week, allowing precipitation chances to increase by late in the
forecast period. It`s too early to tell if severe weather is
possible, but currently the pattern looks more supportive of heavy
rain and PWATs increase and a weak boundary lingers around central
Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Inserted some chances for fog at the terminals around sunrise. Expect
overnight winds to go to near calm with cooler air moving in. Given
the decent amount of low level moisture present from recent rains,
along with clear skies, light winds, and cool temperatures there
could be some patchy fog in the morning. Don`t expect this to be a
widespread fog event, so handled it with a tempo for MVFR VIS, but
there is an outside chance that IFR conditions could be met very
briefly in the morning. Shortly after sunrise VIS will improve and
VFR conditions are anticipated thereafter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270505
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through early evening as an upper-level
vorticity maximum associated with a shortwave trough slides through
the area. These storms are expected to dissipate as the feature
departs and as instability decreases diurnally, so expecting the
remainder of the night to be dry. No severe weather is expected, and
showers/storms should be progressive enough and scattered enough that
widespread flooding is not expected on top of what`s already
occurring.

High pressure and cooler temperatures will push into the region for
Saturday, and quiet conditions are expected to continue at least
through Sunday morning. Below normal high temperatures in the upper
70s to lower 80s are anticipated Saturday, before temperatures begin
to gradually warm early next week.

As today`s departing low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes, a
shortwave trough will ride down the back side of the trough and into
eastern Missouri, dragging a weak cold front through the CWA. Storms
are expected with this feature, but the main forcing will stay
mainly east of Hwy 65 in Missouri, keeping the chance for strong
storms mainly across eastern portions of the CWA. Storms are most
likely during the late afternoon through late evening hours as the
front passes through. Temperatures will not be significantly cooler
Monday behind the front, then the warming trend will continue.

The flow pattern will begin to flatten during the mid- to late-work
week, allowing precipitation chances to increase by late in the
forecast period. It`s too early to tell if severe weather is
possible, but currently the pattern looks more supportive of heavy
rain and PWATs increase and a weak boundary lingers around central
Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Inserted some chances for fog at the terminals around sunrise. Expect
overnight winds to go to near calm with cooler air moving in. Given
the decent amount of low level moisture present from recent rains,
along with clear skies, light winds, and cool temperatures there
could be some patchy fog in the morning. Don`t expect this to be a
widespread fog event, so handled it with a tempo for MVFR VIS, but
there is an outside chance that IFR conditions could be met very
briefly in the morning. Shortly after sunrise VIS will improve and
VFR conditions are anticipated thereafter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton









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