000
FXUS63 KEAX 242327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Fri May 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Main change to the short term forecast was to push back the timing
of tonight`s precip. Per the latest short-term NWP, SHRA/TSRA should
develop over IA early this evening and remain just north of the CWA.
Meanwhile an MCS is progged to develop over far WRN/NCNTRL KS and
move toward and into the CWA well after midnight. This activity is
not expected to be severe and likely weakening as it enters the CWA.
All and all the best chance for precip tonight will likely be north
of the I-70 corridor. As for tomorrow expecting scattered TSRA and
SHRA over much of the CWA, but there should be periods of sunshine...
the day should not be a wash out by any means. High temperatures will
be warmer than today by some 6 - 10 degrees (upper 70s to around 80)

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Forecast for the last half of the weekend and through next work week
continues to look unsettled, though some dry periods are beginning
to emerge.

Prevailing flow across the nation late in the weekend and through
the next work week continues to be defined by a blocking pattern,
with large synoptic troughs on either coast bracketing the ridge
across the center of the country. This setup continues to advertise
several shortwave troughs ejecting from, or moving through, the west
CONUS trough, repeatedly sweeping over the ridge through the weekend
into next week. However, latest model runs are beginning to shift
some of the focus for precipitation farther north along with the
storm track. This wont help reduce any of our precipitation chances
through Sunday, as storms are still expected to persist through
Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with another round of
diurnally driven Sunday afternoon storms possible. However, by
Monday, models advertise the preferred baroclinic zone on the edge
of the ridge will have shifted north into Iowa, taking the focus for
convection with it. Still looks to be some potential for storms in
the warm moist plume of air riding north on the prevailing southerly
surface winds, but POPs have been dialed back a bit across east
central Kansas into central Missouri as the focus looks to be
farther north. Continued this drying trend through Tuesday into
Wednesday as the ridge looks to strengthen enough to to force the
stormy activity up along our northern edge. Widespread thunderstorm
chances will return to the forecast area Thursday and Friday as the
west coast trough begins to shift east into the Plains States.

Otherwise, with the ridge building in and the storm track shifting
north, expect a slow warming trend to persist into next week, with
highs bouncing around in the 80s through next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Scattered to broken mid-level clouds will be the rule for tonight.
However, showers and thunderstorms developing across southern
Nebraska and central Kansas are expected to role eastward moving into
the terminals during the overnight hours between 09Z-12Z. Cigs should
remain VFR around 5kft with no visibility restrictions. Tomorrow
morning cigs with drop to 3kft and may even dip into the high MVFR
range with light showers in the area. Showers will come to an end by
tomorrow afternoon with broken cigs around 4kft. Winds will be out of
the southeast tonight around 10kts and will veer to the south
tomorrow morning. Winds will pick up to between 10-15kts with gusts
to around 20kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...73

000
FXUS63 KEAX 242058
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Main change to the short term forecast was to push back the timing
of tonight`s precip. Per the latest short-term NWP, SHRA/TSRA should
develop over IA early this evening and remain just north of the CWA.
Meanwhile an MCS is progged to develop over far WRN/NCNTRL KS and
move toward and into the CWA well after midnight. This activity is
not expected to be severe and likely weakening as it enters the CWA.
All and all the best chance for precip tonight will likely be north
of the I-70 corridor. As for tomorrow expecting scattered TSRA and
SHRA over much of the CWA, but there should be periods of sunshine...
the day should not be a wash out by any means. High temperatures will
be warmer than today by some 6 - 10 degrees (upper 70s to around 80)


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Forecast for the last half of the weekend and through next work week
continues to look unsettled, though some dry periods are beginning
to emerge.

Prevailing flow across the nation late in the weekend and through
the next work week continues to be defined by a blocking pattern,
with large synoptic troughs on either coast bracketing the ridge
across the center of the country. This setup continues to advertise
several shortwave troughs ejecting from, or moving through, the west
CONUS trough, repeatedly sweeping over the ridge through the weekend
into next week. However, latest model runs are beginning to shift
some of the focus for precipitation farther north along with the
storm track. This wont help reduce any of our precipitation chances
through Sunday, as storms are still expected to persist through
Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with another round of
diurnally driven Sunday afternoon storms possible. However, by
Monday, models advertise the preferred baroclinic zone on the edge
of the ridge will have shifted north into Iowa, taking the focus for
convection with it. Still looks to be some potential for storms in
the warm moist plume of air riding north on the prevailing southerly
surface winds, but POPs have been dialed back a bit across east
central Kansas into central Missouri as the focus looks to be
farther north. Continued this drying trend through Tuesday into
Wednesday as the ridge looks to strengthen enough to to force the
stormy activity up along our northern edge. Widespread thunderstorm
chances will return to the forecast area Thursday and Friday as the
west coast trough begins to shift east into the Plains States.

Otherwise, with the ridge building in and the storm track shifting
north, expect a slow warming trend to persist into next week, with
highs bouncing around in the 80s through next work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the rest of today and much of
the evening, accompanied by southeast surface winds. Later tonight
SHRA and TSRA will begin to approach the region from the northwest.
Forecast confidence is low regarding the timing and areal coverage
with any activity that develops based on differing solutions in the
short-term model guidance. However, I tried to encapsulate the latest
trends with the best chance for precip occurring well north of
Interstate-70 by sunrise tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Pietrycha

000
FXUS63 KEAX 241731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CDT Fri May 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Upper ridge over the High Plains will slowly shift eastward toward
the region today, with the ridge axis becoming somewhat stationary
from Missouri into Minnesota through the weekend. This will help
bring in warmer temperatures beginning today with highs likely rising
into the 80s by Sunday, depending on the extent of clouds and
precipitation.

This ridge will flatten slightly over the weekend, allowing multiple
weak waves to eject out of the Rockies and ride over the top of the
ridge. This will likely produce several rounds of thunderstorms
across the Plains and Midwest over the weekend, beginning as early
as late tonight. This activity will be aided by a recurring
nocturnal low-level jet which could cause the highest chances for
precipitation to be during the nighttime hours. Best focus for
thunderstorm activity Saturday through Sunday night will be across
Nebraska and Iowa where the track of these weak impulses will align
with the nose of the low-level jet. However, should convection
congeal into a convective complex, propagation vectors would favor
this activity dropping southward into northern Missouri. Timing any
such activity remains a challenge, so continued to broad brush chance
PoPs across most of the area beginning late tonight and persisting
through early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

The medium range forecast features a return of above normal
temperatures, along with renewed chances for thunderstorms towards
next weekend.  By Monday, mid-level ridging will slowly begin to
develop, but will likely remain sufficiently suppressed to allow for
renewed convection late Monday afternoon and Monday night over the
northern half of the CWA. However by Tuesday, increased troughing in
the southwestern CONUS will lead to increasing heights in the
midsection of the nation, shoving the effective baroclinic zone into
the Great Lakes.  The result will be dry conditions for Tuesday and
Wednesday with temperatures climbing into the 80s.

By Thursday, precipitation chances will begin to increase as the
upper trough in the Southwest begins to eject eastward. The ECMWF
has a much more meridional component to the mid-level flow, as
opposed to the more broad southwesterly flow of the GFS, which
results in timing differences of precipitation between the solutions
by about 12 hours.  Nevertheless, will begin to increase PoPs by
Thursday afternoon as temperatures remain in the 80s heading into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the rest of today and much of
the evening, accompanied by southeast surface winds. Later tonight
SHRA and TSRA will begin to approach the region from the northwest.
Forecast confidence is low regarding the timing and areal coverage
with any activity that develops based on differing solutions in the
short-term model guidance. However, I tried to encapsulate the latest
trends with the best chance for precip occurring well north of
Interstate-70 by sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Pietrycha

000
FXUS63 KEAX 241121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Fri May 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Upper ridge over the High Plains will slowly shift eastward toward
the region today, with the ridge axis becoming somewhat stationary
from Missouri into Minnesota through the weekend. This will help
bring in warmer temperatures beginning today with highs likely rising
into the 80s by Sunday, depending on the extent of clouds and
precipitation.

This ridge will flatten slightly over the weekend, allowing multiple
weak waves to eject out of the Rockies and ride over the top of the
ridge. This will likely produce several rounds of thunderstorms
across the Plains and Midwest over the weekend, beginning as early
as late tonight. This activity will be aided by a recurring
nocturnal low-level jet which could cause the highest chances for
precipitation to be during the nighttime hours. Best focus for
thunderstorm activity Saturday through Sunday night will be across
Nebraska and Iowa where the track of these weak impulses will align
with the nose of the low-level jet. However, should convection
congeal into a convective complex, propagation vectors would favor
this activity dropping southward into northern Missouri. Timing any
such activity remains a challenge, so continued to broad brush chance
PoPs across most of the area beginning late tonight and persisting
through early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

The medium range forecast features a return of above normal
temperatures, along with renewed chances for thunderstorms towards
next weekend.  By Monday, mid-level ridging will slowly begin to
develop, but will likely remain sufficiently suppressed to allow for
renewed convection late Monday afternoon and Monday night over the
northern half of the CWA. However by Tuesday, increased troughing in
the southwestern CONUS will lead to increasing heights in the
midsection of the nation, shoving the effective baroclinic zone into
the Great Lakes.  The result will be dry conditions for Tuesday and
Wednesday with temperatures climbing into the 80s.

By Thursday, precipitation chances will begin to increase as the
upper trough in the Southwest begins to eject eastward. The ECMWF
has a much more meridional component to the mid-level flow, as
opposed to the more broad southwesterly flow of the GFS, which
results in timing differences of precipitation between the solutions
by about 12 hours.  Nevertheless, will begin to increase PoPs by
Thursday afternoon as temperatures remain in the 80s heading into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Mid/high clouds will stream overhead today while conditions remain
VFR. Any precipitation over KS should stay well west of the KC
terminals through the evening. May see additional convection develop
over IA overnight and drop south/southeast into MO. Better chances
for rain will be near IRK. Chances for MCI/STJ are not high enough to
include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

000
FXUS63 KEAX 240826
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CDT Fri May 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Upper ridge over the High Plains will slowly shift eastward toward
the region today, with the ridge axis becoming somewhat stationary
from Missouri into Minnesota through the weekend. This will help
bring in warmer temperatures beginning today with highs likely rising
into the 80s by Sunday, depending on the extent of clouds and
precipitation.

This ridge will flatten slightly over the weekend, allowing multiple
weak waves to eject out of the Rockies and ride over the top of the
ridge. This will likely produce several rounds of thunderstorms
across the Plains and Midwest over the weekend, beginning as early
as late tonight. This activity will be aided by a recurring
nocturnal low-level jet which could cause the highest chances for
precipitation to be during the nighttime hours. Best focus for
thunderstorm activity Saturday through Sunday night will be across
Nebraska and Iowa where the track of these weak impulses will align
with the nose of the low-level jet. However, should convection
congeal into a convective complex, propagation vectors would favor
this activity dropping southward into northern Missouri. Timing any
such activity remains a challenge, so continued to broad brush chance
PoPs across most of the area beginning late tonight and persisting
through early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

The medium range forecast features a return of above normal
temperatures, along with renewed chances for thunderstorms towards
next weekend.  By Monday, mid-level ridging will slowly begin to
develop, but will likely remain sufficiently suppressed to allow for
renewed convection late Monday afternoon and Monday night over the
northern half of the CWA. However by Tuesday, increased troughing in
the southwestern CONUS will lead to increasing heights in the
midsection of the nation, shoving the effective baroclinic zone into
the Great Lakes.  The result will be dry conditions for Tuesday and
Wednesday with temperatures climbing into the 80s.

By Thursday, precipitation chances will begin to increase as the
upper trough in the Southwest begins to eject eastward. The ECMWF
has a much more meridional component to the mid-level flow, as
opposed to the more broad southwesterly flow of the GFS, which
results in timing differences of precipitation between the solutions
by about 12 hours.  Nevertheless, will begin to increase PoPs by
Thursday afternoon as temperatures remain in the 80s heading into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period, with clear
skies overnight giving way to scattered midlevel clouds by mid- to
late-morning Friday. A thicker deck of midlevel clouds with bases
around 10 kft will build in during the evening, and a few showers or
isolated thunderstorms will be possible across far northern Missouri
by late Friday evening into the early overnight hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Laflin

000
FXUS63 KEAX 240458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Upper pattern is evolving as a deep upper trough pulls further away
while an upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east through the
Plains. Although one usually associates the arrival of an upper
level ridge with minimal precipitation this time it will be
different as a series of shortwaves and increasing isentropic ascent
results in a prolonged period of periodic convection...starting
Friday night. This will result in a change from benign and below
average temperatures on Friday to increasing rain chances, elevated
humidity and slightly above average temperatures by Saturday.

For tonight, surface ridging associated with high pressure over
Saskatchewan and western Ontario extends south through eastern
NE/western IA. This has nudged a weak surface trough out of the CWA
and the resulting subsidence and daytime mixing are finally eroding
the extensive stratocu field from the north and west. These clouds
will likely linger into the early evening and be last to clear from
the east central counties. The rest of the night will be generally
clear and a good candidate for strong radiational cooling.

Mid level cloudiness will increase from west to east on Friday as
warm air advection aloft spreads east. Will keep the CWA dry due to
a continued dry east-southeasterly which maintains a very dry
elevated mixed layer until late in the day. The southerly low level
jet plus increasing instability and isentropic lift will become key
players in the development of scattered convection over KS on Friday
and likely a MCS over IA Friday night which will probably backbuild
into the northern CWA. Both the the 12z NAM and ECMWF mass fields
hint a convective outflow boundary could propagate southwest into
the now southwesterly oriented low level jet. It`s also possible new
convection could reform further south over the CWA during the day on
Saturday. There are a number of potential ifs but the general
theme for Saturday is be prepared for scattered convection,
especially in the afternoon as the cap is eroded.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Forecast for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into the next
week continues to look unsettled. Mid-range operational and ensemble
models continue to advertise the persistence of a blocking pattern
across the United States through the weekend, with some possibility
of the pattern flattening out late next week. However, till the
pattern flattens, the shortwave ridge will reside across the Plains,
continuing to interact with shortwave troughs moving through, and
ejecting from, the trough on the west coast. Severe thunderstorm
activity is not expected to be significant problem. While Gulf
moisture will be available, shear profiles under the ridge will be a
little messy, making it difficult for storms to organize. Have
continued to broad brush in thunderstorms POPs trough these periods.

Otherwise, temperatures under the shortwave ridge will slowly climb
over the weekend, settling above normal early next work week. So,
while hit or miss storms will plague the weekend, at least
temperatures will be pleasant.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period, with clear
skies overnight giving way to scattered midlevel clouds by mid- to
late-morning Friday. A thicker deck of midlevel clouds with bases
around 10 kft will build in during the evening, and a few showers or
isolated thunderstorms will be possible across far northern Missouri
by late Friday evening into the early overnight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin

000
FXUS63 KEAX 232313
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Upper pattern is evolving as a deep upper trough pulls further away
while an upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east through the
Plains. Although one usually associates the arrival of an upper
level ridge with minimal precipitation this time it will be
different as a series of shortwaves and increasing isentropic ascent
results in a prolonged period of periodic convection...starting
Friday night. This will result in a change from benign and below
average temperatures on Friday to increasing rain chances, elevated
humidity and slightly above average temperatures by Saturday.

For tonight, surface ridging associated with high pressure over
Saskatchewan and western Ontario extends south through eastern
NE/western IA. This has nudged a weak surface trough out of the CWA
and the resulting subsidence and daytime mixing are finally eroding
the extensive stratocu field from the north and west. These clouds
will likely linger into the early evening and be last to clear from
the east central counties. The rest of the night will be generally
clear and a good candidate for strong radiational cooling.

Mid level cloudiness will increase from west to east on Friday as
warm air advection aloft spreads east. Will keep the CWA dry due to
a continued dry east-southeasterly which maintains a very dry
elevated mixed layer until late in the day. The southerly low level
jet plus increasing instability and isentropic lift will become key
players in the development of scattered convection over KS on Friday
and likely a MCS over IA Friday night which will probably backbuild
into the northern CWA. Both the the 12z NAM and ECMWF mass fields
hint a convective outflow boundary could propagate southwest into
the now southwesterly oriented low level jet. It`s also possible new
convection could reform further south over the CWA during the day on
Saturday. There are a number of potential ifs but the general
theme for Saturday is be prepared for scattered convection,
especially in the afternoon as the cap is eroded.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Forecast for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into the next
week continues to look unsettled. Mid-range operational and ensemble
models continue to advertise the persistence of a blocking pattern
across the United States through the weekend, with some possibility
of the pattern flattening out late next week. However, till the
pattern flattens, the shortwave ridge will reside across the Plains,
continuing to interact with shortwave troughs moving through, and
ejecting from, the trough on the west coast. Severe thunderstorm
activity is not expected to be significant problem. While Gulf
moisture will be available, shear profiles under the ridge will be a
little messy, making it difficult for storms to organize. Have
continued to broad brush in thunderstorms POPs trough these periods.

Otherwise, temperatures under the shortwave ridge will slowly climb
over the weekend, settling above normal early next work week. So,
while hit or miss storms will plague the weekend, at least
temperatures will be pleasant.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Stratocumulus with bases between 3-4 kft will continue to erode
across the area this evening, but will be slowest to dissipate over
far northeast KS through the KC metro area. All areas should be
mainly clear from 03z through early Friday. During the late morning
hours Friday, midlevel clouds will begin to build into the region
from west to east, but bases should stay around or above 10,000 ft.
Winds will gradually shift from east to southeast through the TAF
period and should remain between 5 to 15 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin

000
FXUS63 KEAX 232111
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
411 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Upper pattern is evolving as a deep upper trough pulls further away
while an upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east through the
Plains. Although one usually associates the arrival of an upper
level ridge with minimal precipitation this time it will be
different as a series of shortwaves and increasing isentropic ascent
results in a prolonged period of periodic convection...starting
Friday night. This will result in a change from benign and below
average temperatures on Friday to increasing rain chances, elevated
humidity and slightly above average temperatures by Saturday.

For tonight, surface ridging associated with high pressure over
Saskatchewan and western Ontario extends south through eastern
NE/western IA. This has nudged a weak surface trough out of the CWA
and the resulting subsidence and daytime mixing are finally eroding
the extensive stratocu field from the north and west. These clouds
will likely linger into the early evening and be last to clear from
the east central counties. The rest of the night will be generally
clear and a good candidate for strong radiational cooling.

Mid level cloudiness will increase from west to east on Friday as
warm air advection aloft spreads east. Will keep the CWA dry due to
a continued dry east-southeasterly which maintains a very dry
elevated mixed layer until late in the day. The southerly low level
jet plus increasing instability and isentropic lift will become key
players in the development of scattered convection over KS on Friday
and likely a MCS over IA Friday night which will probably backbuild
into the northern CWA. Both the the 12z NAM and ECMWF mass fields
hint a convective outflow boundary could propagate southwest into
the now southwesterly oriented low level jet. It`s also possible new
convection could reform further south over the CWA during the day on
Saturday. There are a number of potential ifs but the general
theme for Saturday is be prepared for scattered convection,
especially in the afternoon as the cap is eroded.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Forecast for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into the next
week continues to look unsettled. Mid-range operational and ensemble
models continue to advertise the persistence of a blocking pattern
across the United States through the weekend, with some possibility
of the pattern flattening out late next week. However, till the
pattern flattens, the shortwave ridge will reside across the Plains,
continuing to interact with shortwave troughs moving through, and
ejecting from, the trough on the west coast. Severe thunderstorm
activity is not expected to be significant problem. While Gulf
moisture will be available, shear profiles under the ridge will be a
little messy, making it difficult for storms to organize. Have
continued to broad brush in thunderstorms POPs trough these periods.

Otherwise, temperatures under the shortwave ridge will slowly climb
over the weekend, settling above normal early next work week. So,
while hit or miss storms will plague the weekend, at least
temperatures will be pleasant.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Extensive area of MVFR ceilings from northeast/east central KS across
northern half of MO will gradually lift to VFR with afternoon mixing
as well as gradually clear from the north. However, broken VFR
ceilings could linger into the early evening hours before scattering
out. None of the short range models have a good handle on this cloud
cover although the 12z NAM comes closest.

Winds will gradually veer from the north to southeast during this
forecast period. Warm air advection aloft will spread an altocu deck
eastward tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ

000
FXUS63 KEAX 231743
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Increased cloud coverage for most of the afternoon based on latest
satellite trends, 12z Bufr soundings and 925mb/850mb condensation
pressure deficit progs. Lowered temperatures as a result. Should see
gradual clearing from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Light rain showers/sprinkles have been moving south through Iowa
early this morning around the upper-low moving across the Upper
Mississippi valley. There is a chance that these could last into
northern and northeastern Missouri this morning, so have added a
mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected with
thicker stratocu persisting through much of the day across northern
and northeastern Missouri. This area will see highs in the mid 60s as
cloud cover and continued cool northerly/northeasterly winds keep
temperatures seasonally cool. Southern and western portions of the
forecast area will see temperatures in the lower 70s as cloud cover
will be less persistent there.

Friday should be a bit warmer across the area but temperatures are
still expected to be in the lower 70s. The next decent chance for
rain will come late Friday night and into Saturday. A strong
low-level jet is expected to develop over the Plains, focusing on
western to central Nebraska and Kansas. This will likely trigger
storms across the region and as the low-level jet veers and shifts
east, the focus and stronger, moist isentropic ascent will as well.
This may bring whatever forms in the Plains into mainly northern
Missouri late in the night. We will also be seeing more broad
isentropic lift through the area earlier in the night, so cannot
rule some isolated showers or storms out earlier. But the best
chances will be later when better moisture and ascent arrive.

Mid-level flow will become more persistently from the south to
southwest allowing continued moisture advection into the region.
This will result in at least a chance for thunderstorms through the
day and into the overnight. While it doesn`t look like the start of
the Memorial Day weekend will be a washout with thunderstorms
everywhere, the chances will be there throughout the day for
scattered showers and storms unfortunately. The threat for severe
weather looks low at this through Saturday night as shear and
instability will be rather limited.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central U.S. for
much of next week. Despite this ridge, all medium range guidance
continues to produce multiple rounds of convection across the Plains
into the Upper Midwest through most of the extended period as the
upper trough to the west sends continuous weak impulses into the
region. Airmass in place will be somewhat unstable, so several
rounds of thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, but the
presence of weak capping aloft and the lack of any well-defined
forcing mechanism suggest these model PoPs are probably overdone.
While it is unlikely we will see thunderstorms every day next week
like the models suggest, its not yet possible to pinpoint when/where
the highest chances will be. Therefore kept low-end chance PoPs for
much of the extended period but tried to trend drier by Wednesday as
upper level heights begin to rise overhead. Wind fields will be weak
so significant severe weather seems unlikely at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Extensive area of MVFR ceilings from northeast/east central KS across
northern half of MO will gradually lift to VFR with afternoon mixing
as well as gradually clear from the north. However, broken VFR
ceilings could linger into the early evening hours before scattering
out. None of the short range models have a good handle on this cloud
cover although the 12z NAM comes closest.

Winds will gradually veer from the north to southeast during this
forecast period. Warm air advection aloft will spread an altocu deck
eastward tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ

000
FXUS63 KEAX 231716
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Increased cloud coverage for most of the afternoon based on latest
satellite trends, 12z Bufr soundings and 925mb/850mb condensation
pressure deficit progs. Lowered temperatures as a result. Should see
gradual clearing from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Light rain showers/sprinkles have been moving south through Iowa
early this morning around the upper-low moving across the Upper
Mississippi valley. There is a chance that these could last into
northern and northeastern Missouri this morning, so have added a
mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected with
thicker stratocu persisting through much of the day across northern
and northeastern Missouri. This area will see highs in the mid 60s as
cloud cover and continued cool northerly/northeasterly winds keep
temperatures seasonally cool. Southern and western portions of the
forecast area will see temperatures in the lower 70s as cloud cover
will be less persistent there.

Friday should be a bit warmer across the area but temperatures are
still expected to be in the lower 70s. The next decent chance for
rain will come late Friday night and into Saturday. A strong
low-level jet is expected to develop over the Plains, focusing on
western to central Nebraska and Kansas. This will likely trigger
storms across the region and as the low-level jet veers and shifts
east, the focus and stronger, moist isentropic ascent will as well.
This may bring whatever forms in the Plains into mainly northern
Missouri late in the night. We will also be seeing more broad
isentropic lift through the area earlier in the night, so cannot
rule some isolated showers or storms out earlier. But the best
chances will be later when better moisture and ascent arrive.

Mid-level flow will become more persistently from the south to
southwest allowing continued moisture advection into the region.
This will result in at least a chance for thunderstorms through the
day and into the overnight. While it doesn`t look like the start of
the Memorial Day weekend will be a washout with thunderstorms
everywhere, the chances will be there throughout the day for
scattered showers and storms unfortunately. The threat for severe
weather looks low at this through Saturday night as shear and
instability will be rather limited.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central U.S. for
much of next week. Despite this ridge, all medium range guidance
continues to produce multiple rounds of convection across the Plains
into the Upper Midwest through most of the extended period as the
upper trough to the west sends continuous weak impulses into the
region. Airmass in place will be somewhat unstable, so several
rounds of thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, but the
presence of weak capping aloft and the lack of any well-defined
forcing mechanism suggest these model PoPs are probably overdone.
While it is unlikely we will see thunderstorms every day next week
like the models suggest, its not yet possible to pinpoint when/where
the highest chances will be. Therefore kept low-end chance PoPs for
much of the extended period but tried to trend drier by Wednesday as
upper level heights begin to rise overhead. Wind fields will be weak
so significant severe weather seems unlikely at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MVFR ceilings are expected through early this afternoon. And based on
upstream observations and model guidance, there will likely be
several hours of fuel-alternate MVFR cigs from late this morning
through early afternoon. Winds will shift from the northwest to the
northeast through the day but should generally be light. Ceilings are
expected to break up and scatter out by late this afternoon. Once
this occurs skies should remain clear to mostly clear through the night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...CDB

000
FXUS63 KEAX 231057
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
557 AM CDT Thu May 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Light rain showers/sprinkles have been moving south through Iowa
early this morning around the upper-low moving across the Upper
Mississippi valley. There is a chance that these could last into
northern and northeastern Missouri this morning, so have added a
mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected with
thicker stratocu persisting through much of the day across northern
and northeastern Missouri. This area will see highs in the mid 60s as
cloud cover and continued cool northerly/northeasterly winds keep
temperatures seasonally cool. Southern and western portions of the
forecast area will see temperatures in the lower 70s as cloud cover
will be less persistent there.

Friday should be a bit warmer across the area but temperatures are
still expected to be in the lower 70s. The next decent chance for
rain will come late Friday night and into Saturday. A strong
low-level jet is expected to develop over the Plains, focusing on
western to central Nebraska and Kansas. This will likely trigger
storms across the region and as the low-level jet veers and shifts
east, the focus and stronger, moist isentropic ascent will as well.
This may bring whatever forms in the Plains into mainly northern
Missouri late in the night. We will also be seeing more broad
isentropic lift through the area earlier in the night, so cannot
rule some isolated showers or storms out earlier. But the best
chances will be later when better moisture and ascent arrive.

Mid-level flow will become more persistently from the south to
southwest allowing continued moisture advection into the region.
This will result in at least a chance for thunderstorms through the
day and into the overnight. While it doesn`t look like the start of
the Memorial Day weekend will be a washout with thunderstorms
everywhere, the chances will be there throughout the day for
scattered showers and storms unfortunately. The threat for severe
weather looks low at this through Saturday night as shear and
instability will be rather limited.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central U.S. for
much of next week. Despite this ridge, all medium range guidance
continues to produce multiple rounds of convection across the Plains
into the Upper Midwest through most of the extended period as the
upper trough to the west sends continuous weak impulses into the
region. Airmass in place will be somewhat unstable, so several
rounds of thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, but the
presence of weak capping aloft and the lack of any well-defined
forcing mechanism suggest these model PoPs are probably overdone.
While it is unlikely we will see thunderstorms every day next week
like the models suggest, its not yet possible to pinpoint when/where
the highest chances will be. Therefore kept low-end chance PoPs for
much of the extended period but tried to trend drier by Wednesday as
upper level heights begin to rise overhead. Wind fields will be weak
so significant severe weather seems unlikely at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MVFR ceilings are expected through early this afternoon. And based on
upstream observations and model guidance, there will likely be
several hours of fuel-alternate MVFR cigs from late this morning
through early afternoon. Winds will shift from the northwest to the
northeast through the day but should generally be light. Ceilings are
expected to break up and scatter out by late this afternoon. Once
this occurs skies should remain clear to mostly clear through the night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...CDB

000
FXUS63 KEAX 230826
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CDT Thu May 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Light rain showers/sprinkles have been moving south through Iowa
early this morning around the upper-low moving across the Upper
Mississippi valley. There is a chance that these could last into
northern and northeastern Missouri this morning, so have added a
mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected with
thicker stratocu persisting through much of the day across northern
and northeastern Missouri. This area will see highs in the mid 60s as
cloud cover and continued cool northerly/northeasterly winds keep
temperatures seasonally cool. Southern and western portions of the
forecast area will see temperatures in the lower 70s as cloud cover
will be less persistent there.

Friday should be a bit warmer across the area but temperatures are
still expected to be in the lower 70s. The next decent chance for
rain will come late Friday night and into Saturday. A strong
low-level jet is expected to develop over the Plains, focusing on
wester to central Nebraska and Kansas. This will likely trigger
storms across the region and as the low-level jet veers and shifts
east, the focus and stronger, moist isentropic ascent will as well.
This may bring whatever forms in the Plains into mainly northern
Missouri late in the night. We will also be seeing more broad
isentropic lift through the area earlier in the night, so cannot
rule some isolated showers or storms out earlier. But the best
chances will be later when better moisture and ascent arrive.

Mid-level flow will become more persistently from the south to
southwest allowing continued moisture advection into the region.
This will result in at least a chance for thunderstorms through the
day and into the overnight. While it doesn`t look like the start of
the Memorial Day weekend will be a washout with thunderstorms
everywhere, the chances will be there throughout the day for
scattered showers and storms unfortunately. The threat for severe
weather looks low at this through Saturday night as shear and
instability will be rather limited.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central U.S. for
much of next week. Despite this ridge, all medium range guidance
continues to produce multiple rounds of convection across the Plains
into the Upper Midwest through most of the extended period as the
upper trough to the west sends continuous weak impulses into the
region. Airmass in place will be somewhat unstable, so several
rounds of thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, but the
presence of weak capping aloft and the lack of any well-defined
forcing mechanism suggest these model PoPs are probably overdone.
While it is unlikely we will see thunderstorms every day next week
like the models suggest, its not yet possible to pinpoint when/where
the highest chances will be. Therefore kept low-end chance PoPs for
much of the extended period but tried to trend drier by Wednesday as
upper level heights begin to rise overhead. Wind fields will be weak
so significant severe weather seems unlikely at this point.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Forecast remains on track with broken stratus across terminals. Still
anticipate arrival of MVFR ceilings between 09-12Z at TAF sites, with
a return back to VFR conditions around midday. Surface winds will
veer with time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Blair

000
FXUS63 KEAX 230454
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The forecast area will remain under the influence of a seasonably
cool and dry cyclonic flow around a nearly vertically stacked low
pressure system now over eastern IA. A secondary cold front with
another surge of cooler air is expected to drop south across NE and
IA later this evening and through the CWA overnight. Considerable
cold air stratocu will begin to scatter out across the southwestern
CWA this evening but much slower over the rest of the region. The
far northern counties will likely remain under a blanket of clouds
through the night.

The stratocu will likely hang around over the CWA for most of the
morning before finally scattering out. Temperatures through h8 will
be similar to today but should have the benefit of afternoon
sunshine to support warmer readings than today. Favored the slightly
cooler MAV MOS guidance due to the north to northeast surface
winds.

A surface high building south through the Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday will maintain a pool of cool air that will be drawn
westward on Friday. This will keep temperatures below average for a
third day. An amplifying upper level ridge will press eastward
through the Plains on Friday which will allow warm air advection
aloft to spread increasing mid and high level cloud cover towards
MO. However, the easterly boundary layer winds will maintain a cool
and dry fetch such that not overly impressed on rain chances through
Friday. Best one could hope for are sprinkles or a brief afternoon
shower over northwest MO.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The forecast for Friday night and on through the holiday weekend
into next week remains relatively unchanged with a prolonged period
of unsettled weather.

By Friday evening models advertise a shortwave ridge having migrated
into the Plains, where it will linger through the weekend into next
week as it remains stuck between troughs anchored across either
coast. Thoughts are this blocking pattern will hold steady as
advertised, thus allowing temperatures to rebound slowly into early next
week. This will keep temperatures around normal through the weekend,
slowly lifting them into the 80s early next week.

Major issue for the holiday weekend will be the potential
for storms. Shortwave ridge, as mentioned earlier, will be a
persistent feature over the region. Shortwave troughs moving
through, or ejecting from, the larger synoptic west coast trough will
spend the next several days riding up and over the ridge. These small
perturbations will have the potential to bring repeated rounds of
rain as they are swept over the ridge. At this time, confidence is
highest that stormy activity will occur Saturday as the first of many
ejecting troughs sweep through the region. Therefore, have kept the
focus for likely POPs on Saturday. Confidence generally drops off in
the later periods though this is mostly due to the uncertainties of
antecedent convection; depending on whether a boundary has been left
across the region and/or where available moisture will be. However,
with the ridge not moving much, and a endless parade of shortwave
troughs looking to exit the west coast over a Plains States ridge,
thoughts are storms will be possible throughout the later periods.
Have left the latter half of the forecast broad brushed with chance
POPs as a result.

Otherwise, the potential for severe weather continues to look very
low owing to a mismatch between shear and instability in these outer
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Forecast remains on track with broken stratus across terminals. Still
anticipate arrival of MVFR ceilings between 09-12Z at TAF sites, with
a return back to VFR conditions around midday. Surface winds will
veer with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ/Cutter
AVIATION...Blair

000
FXUS63 KEAX 222309
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 PM CDT Wed May 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The forecast area will remain under the influence of a seasonably
cool and dry cyclonic flow around a nearly vertically stacked low
pressure system now over eastern IA. A secondary cold front with
another surge of cooler air is expected to drop south across NE and
IA later this evening and through the CWA overnight. Considerable
cold air stratocu will begin to scatter out across the southwestern
CWA this evening but much slower over the rest of the region. The
far northern counties will likely remain under a blanket of clouds
through the night.

The stratocu will likely hang around over the CWA for most of the
morning before finally scattering out. Temperatures through h8 will
be similar to today but should have the benefit of afternoon
sunshine to support warmer readings than today. Favored the slightly
cooler MAV MOS guidance due to the north to northeast surface
winds.

A surface high building south through the Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday will maintain a pool of cool air that will be drawn
westward on Friday. This will keep temperatures below average for a
third day. An amplifying upper level ridge will press eastward
through the Plains on Friday which will allow warm air advection
aloft to spread increasing mid and high level cloud cover towards
MO. However, the easterly boundary layer winds will maintain a cool
and dry fetch such that not overly impressed on rain chances through
Friday. Best one could hope for are sprinkles or a brief afternoon
shower over northwest MO.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The forecast for Friday night and on through the holiday weekend
into next week remains relatively unchanged with a prolonged period
of unsettled weather.

By Friday evening models advertise a shortwave ridge having migrated
into the Plains, where it will linger through the weekend into next
week as it remains stuck between troughs anchored across either
coast. Thoughts are this blocking pattern will hold steady as
advertised, thus allowing temperatures to rebound slowly into early next
week. This will keep temperatures around normal through the weekend,
slowly lifting them into the 80s early next week.

Major issue for the holiday weekend will be the potential
for storms. Shortwave ridge, as mentioned earlier, will be a
persistent feature over the region. Shortwave troughs moving
through, or ejecting from, the larger synoptic west coast trough will
spend the next several days riding up and over the ridge. These small
perturbations will have the potential to bring repeated rounds of
rain as they are swept over the ridge. At this time, confidence is
highest that stormy activity will occur Saturday as the first of many
ejecting troughs sweep through the region. Therefore, have kept the
focus for likely POPs on Saturday. Confidence generally drops off in
the later periods though this is mostly due to the uncertainties of
antecedent convection; depending on whether a boundary has been left
across the region and/or where available moisture will be. However,
with the ridge not moving much, and a endless parade of shortwave
troughs looking to exit the west coast over a Plains States ridge,
thoughts are storms will be possible throughout the later periods.
Have left the latter half of the forecast broad brushed with chance
POPs as a result.

Otherwise, the potential for severe weather continues to look very
low owing to a mismatch between shear and instability in these outer
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Similar scenario as the past 24 hours with regards to ceilings
expected for the TAF period. Current VFR conditions should be
replaced by lower ceilings prior to sunrise. Gradual improvement
anticipated by midday Thursday. Surface winds will gradually veer
with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ/Cutter
AVIATION...Blair

000
FXUS63 KEAX 222112
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CDT Wed May 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The forecast area will remain under the influence of a seasonably
cool and dry cyclonic flow around a nearly vertically stacked low
pressure system now over eastern IA. A secondary cold front with
another surge of cooler air is expected to drop south across NE and
IA later this evening and through the CWA overnight. Considerable
cold air stratocu will begin to scatter out across the southwestern
CWA this evening but much slower over the rest of the region. The
far northern counties will likely remain under a blanket of clouds
through the night.

The stratocu will likely hang around over the CWA for most of the
morning before finally scattering out. Temperatures through h8 will
be similar to today but should have the benefit of afternoon
sunshine to support warmer readings than today. Favored the slightly
cooler MAV MOS guidance due to the north to northeast surface
winds.

A surface high building south through the Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday will maintain a pool of cool air that will be drawn
westward on Friday. This will keep temperatures below average for a
third day. An amplifying upper level ridge will press eastward
through the Plains on Friday which will allow warm air advection
aloft to spread increasing mid and high level cloud cover towards
MO. However, the easterly boundary layer winds will maintain a cool
and dry fetch such that not overly impressed on rain chances through
Friday. Best one could hope for are sprinkles or a brief afternoon
shower over northwest MO.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The forecast for Friday night and on through the holiday weekend
into next week remains relatively unchanged with a prolonged period
of unsettled weather.

By Friday evening models advertise a shortwave ridge having migrated
into the Plains, where it will linger through the weekend into next
week as it remains stuck between troughs anchored across either
coast. Thoughts are this blocking pattern will hold steady as
advertised, thus allowing temperatures to rebound slowly into early next
week. This will keep temperatures around normal through the weekend,
slowly lifting them into the 80s early next week.

Major issue for the holiday weekend will be the potential
for storms. Shortwave ridge, as mentioned earlier, will be a
persistent feature over the region. Shortwave troughs moving
through, or ejecting from, the larger synoptic west coast trough will
spend the next several days riding up and over the ridge. These small
perturbations will have the potential to bring repeated rounds of
rain as they are swept over the ridge. At this time, confidence is
highest that stormy activity will occur Saturday as the first of many
ejecting troughs sweep through the region. Therefore, have kept the
focus for likely POPs on Saturday. Confidence generally drops off in
the later periods though this is mostly due to the uncertainties of
antecedent convection; depending on whether a boundary has been left
across the region and/or where available moisture will be. However,
with the ridge not moving much, and a endless parade of shortwave
troughs looking to exit the west coast over a Plains States ridge,
thoughts are storms will be possible throughout the later periods.
Have left the latter half of the forecast broad brushed with chance
POPs as a result.

Otherwise, the potential for severe weather continues to look very
low owing to a mismatch between shear and instability in these outer
periods.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Cold air advection tied to cyclonic circulation around deep low over
IA will maintain large area of MVFR cigs across northern/central MO
and northeast KS through mid afternoon. Mixing should allow cigs to
rise to low end VFR later this afternoon and continue through
tonight. Low level moisture should remain plentiful and Bufkit
soundings and condensation pressure deficit progs indicate another
southward surge of MVFR cigs out of IA/northern MO will push into the
terminals Thursday morning.

Any instability showers this afternoon should remain north of the
terminals over northern MO and dissipate a few hours after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ/Cutter
AVIATION...MJ

000
FXUS63 KEAX 221742
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1242 PM CDT Wed May 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The upper-level low will pass just to the north of the forecast area
this afternoon as it tracks to the east southeast. This close
proximity may lead to a few showers across northern and northeastern
Missouri this afternoon. These should be mainly diurnally driven so
think the best chances will be during the afternoon with dissipation
around 00Z or so.

A cool and dry surface ridge will build into the region Thursday and
with the upper storm exiting to the east and shortwave ridging aloft,
we should see quiet and comfortable weather. Highs should range from
the upper 60s to the lower 70s with humidity in the 40 to 50 percent
range.

For Friday and especially Friday night, chances for precipitation
will increase. At the surface, the high pressure center will be
sliding off into the Great Lakes. This will eventually turn our
winds to the southeast but trajectories for our area will basically
be recirculating the cooler and drier air into the region. While it
looks to a bit warmer, highs should still be in the mid 70s and
humidity values of 40 to 50 percent will continue to result in
comfortable weather conditions. Have kept a mention of low PoPs
across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri for the daytime
hours. But not very confident that precipitation will make it this
far east through the day. The better chances will come over night
when broad and moist isentropic ascent will spread across the area.
Still the chances look to be less than 50 percent at this time. The
best chances for storms should be more across central Kansas and
Nebraska where the nose of the low-level jet will be focused.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Warming temperatures and on-and-off thunderstorm chances will spread
through the weekend and the early half of next week, as ridging
gradually strengthens over the eastern Plains and a series of
shortwave troughs push through the forecast area. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated through the end of the forecast period,
due to a lack of low-level focus for convective initiation underneath
the mid-level disturbances.

The best chances for precipitation will be on Saturday afternoon and
into the evening as both the EC and GFS bring a fairly well-defined
shortwave trough through northern or central Missouri; and then
again on Sunday as trailing energy continues to push through the
region. Afterward, lower-end precipitation chances will spread
through the rest of the forecast period as a multitude of shortwave
troughs head into the region; however, the timing and placement of
these features becomes very uncertain as we move further into next
week.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be near to slightly above normal
as ridging begins to set up over the region; for Monday through
Wednesday, highs will hit a few degrees above normal in the lower
to mid 80`s. Lows will also be several degrees above normal in the
mid 60`s throughout the long-range forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Cold air advection tied to cyclonic circulation around deep low over
IA will maintain large area of MVFR cigs across northern/central MO
and northeast KS through mid afternoon. Mixing should allow cigs to
rise to low end VFR later this afternoon and continue through
tonight. Low level moisture should remain plentiful and Bufkit
soundings and condensation pressure deficit progs indicate another
southward surge of MVFR cigs out of IA/northern MO will push into the
terminals Thursday morning.

Any instability showers this afternoon should remain north of the
terminals over northern MO and dissipate a few hours after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ

000
FXUS63 KEAX 221125
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 AM CDT Wed May 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The upper-level low will pass just to the north of the forecast area
this afternoon as it tracks to the east southeast. This close
proximity may lead to a few showers across northern and northeastern
Missouri this afternoon. These should be mainly diurnally driven so
think the best chances will be during the afternoon with dissipation
around 00Z or so.

A cool and dry surface ridge will build into the region Thursday and
with the upper storm exiting to the east and shortwave ridging aloft,
we should see quiet and comfortable weather. Highs should range from
the upper 60s to the lower 70s with humidity in the 40 to 50 percent
range.

For Friday and especially Friday night, chances for precipitation
will increase. At the surface, the high pressure center will be
sliding off into the Great Lakes. This will eventually turn our
winds to the southeast but trajectories for our area will basically
be recirculating the cooler and drier air into the region. While it
looks to a bit warmer, highs should still be in the mid 70s and
humidity values of 40 to 50 percent will continue to result in
comfortable weather conditions. Have kept a mention of low PoPs
across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri for the daytime
hours. But not very confident that precipitation will make it this
far east through the day. The better chances will come over night
when broad and moist isentropic ascent will spread across the area.
Still the chances look to be less than 50 percent at this time. The
best chances for storms should be more across central Kansas and
Nebraska where the nose of the low-level jet will be focused.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Warming temperatures and on-and-off thunderstorm chances will spread
through the weekend and the early half of next week, as ridging
gradually strengthens over the eastern Plains and a series of
shortwave troughs push through the forecast area. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated through the end of the forecast period,
due to a lack of low-level focus for convective initiation underneath
the mid-level disturbances.

The best chances for precipitation will be on Saturday afternoon and
into the evening as both the EC and GFS bring a fairly well-defined
shortwave trough through northern or central Missouri; and then
again on Sunday as trailing energy continues to push through the
region. Afterward, lower-end precipitation chances will spread
through the rest of the forecast period as a multitude of shortwave
troughs head into the region; however, the timing and placement of
these features becomes very uncertain as we move further into next
week.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be near to slightly above normal
as ridging begins to set up over the region; for Monday through
Wednesday, highs will hit a few degrees above normal in the lower
to mid 80`s. Lows will also be several degrees above normal in the
mid 60`s throughout the long-range forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Mainly VFR conditions are expected today; however, a few higher-end
MVFR ceilings between 2-3 kft may sneak into northwest Missouri this
morning. Although ceilings will remain broken to overcast for much of
the forecast period, bases should rise above 3 kft by 18z throughout
the region. Winds will remain out of the west northwest today at 8 to
12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

000
FXUS63 KEAX 220757
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 AM CDT Wed May 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The upper-level low will pass just to the north of the forecast area
this afternoon as it tracks to the east southeast. This close
proximity may lead to a few showers across northern and northeastern
Missouri this afternoon. These should be mainly diurnally driven so
think the best chances will be during the afternoon with dissipation
around 00Z or so.

A cool and dry surface ridge will build into the region Thursday and
with the upper storm exiting to the east and shortwave ridging aloft,
we should see quiet and comfortable weather. Highs should range from
the upper 60s to the lower 70s with humidity in the 40 to 50 percent
range.

For Friday and especially Friday night, chances for precipitation
will increase. At the surface, the high pressure center will be
sliding off into the Great Lakes. This will eventually turn our
winds to the southeast but trajectories for our area will basically
be recirculating the cooler and drier air into the region. While it
looks to a bit warmer, highs should still be in the mid 70s and
humidity values of 40 to 50 percent will continue to result in
comfortable weather conditions. Have kept a mention of low PoPs
across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri for the daytime
hours. But not very confident that precipitation will make it this
far east through the day. The better chances will come over night
when broad and moist isentropic ascent will spread across the area.
Still the chances look to be less than 50 percent at this time. The
best chances for storms should be more across central Kansas and
Nebraska where the nose of the low-level jet will be focused.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Warming temperatures and on-and-off thunderstorm chances will spread
through the weekend and the early half of next week, as ridging
gradually strengthens over the eastern Plains and a series of
shortwave troughs push through the forecast area. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated through the end of the forecast period,
due to a lack of low-level focus for convective initiation underneath
the mid-level disturbances.

The best chances for precipitation will be on Saturday afternoon and
into the evening as both the EC and GFS bring a fairly well-defined
shortwave trough through northern or central Missouri; and then
again on Sunday as trailing energy continues to push through the
region. Afterward, lower-end precipitation chances will spread
through the rest of the forecast period as a multitude of shortwave
troughs head into the region; however, the timing and placement of
these features becomes very uncertain as we move further into next
week.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be near to slightly above normal
as ridging begins to set up over the region; for Monday through
Wednesday, highs will hit a few degrees above normal in the lower
to mid 80`s. Lows will also be several degrees above normal in the
mid 60`s throughout the long-range forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Overall VFR conditions are expected at terminals. Low clouds will
gradually increase overnight and especially by mid morning. While
cannot rule out brief period of MVFR ceilings, overall coverage not
expected to be widespread and timing of such conditions not yet
resolvable. Very low probability of shallow ground fog overnight at
terminals as well. Otherwise west to northwest winds will increase by
mid morning and veer with time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair

000
FXUS63 KEAX 220501
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT Wed May 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Primary cutoff circulation that pushed a cold front and storms
through eastern Kansas and Missouri Sunday and Monday continues to
spin across the Northern Plains today Convective activity persists
along the southern periphery of the trough, across the Red River
Valley along the OK/TX border into Arkansas. However, in our area
cloud cover and the potently for a few light showers cast off from
the activity to our south appear to be the only concerns through the
remainder of the daylight and evening hours across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri. Only issue for late tonight might be some
patchy ground fog as skies across east central Kansas and central
Missouri may clear out some before sunrise.

Overnight the cutoff low across the Northern Plains will begin to
open up, eventually beginning to phase with a trough currently
rotating through the Hudson Bay. This will leave the nation with a
bit of a blocking pattern in place, with East and West coast troughs
sandwiching a shortwave ridge in place across the Central Plains.
However, before the ridge establishes itself across the Plains, some
more cool air will filter south overnight. This will likely knock
our temperatures down below normal for Wednesday, with highs only
the in the 60s along the Iowa border. Otherwise, there will be a
slight chance of showers Wednesday due to frontogenic forcing across
far northern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Temperatures will begin to rebound Thursday as the shortwave ridge
moves in, beginning to push temperatures back up to near normal. The
ridge will also keep any threat of storms at bay till late Friday as
series of fast moving shortwave troughs begin ejecting from the West
Coast trough up and over the ridge across the Plains States.
However, the parade of shortwave trough will keep the potential for
unsettled weather across the region Friday night through next
Tuesday. So, yes, there looks to be at least a chance for showers or
thunderstorms through the upcoming holiday weekend. At this time the
threat of any severe weather looks low owing to a miss match between
instability and shear.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to slowly rebound through the weekend
with the persistent shortwave ridge in place. Highs in the 80s will
be possible across the entire region by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Overall VFR conditions are expected at terminals. Low clouds will
gradually increase overnight and especially by mid morning. While
cannot rule out brief period of MVFR ceilings, overall coverage not
expected to be widespread and timing of such conditions not yet
resolvable. Very low probability of shallow ground fog overnight at
terminals as well. Otherwise west to northwest winds will increase by
mid morning and veer with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Blair