Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KEAX 250449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Tonight - Monday:

Before we discuss the overall pattern into early next week the near
term concerns center around fog potential. Airmass ahead of a
windshift line from western IA into north central KS is quite moist
with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Much drier air resides
behind this boundary which is expected to slide southeast through
the CWA overnight. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF simulated
GOES-R 10.35u-3.9u product, which did a great job on last nights
fog, favors areas south of a IRK to MKC line for fog redeveloping.
Also think there is good chance for at least patchy dense fog over
the southern 1/3 of the CWA. Will hold off on issuing an advisory
and let evening shift evaluate visibility trends.

As for the weekend and next Monday we are looking at a very warm and
dry period. A moderately high amplitude upper ridge will translate
eastward through the Plains/MS Valley allowing a large fetch of
unseasonably warm air to spread northeast. Max temperatures by
Sunday will fall just short of record readings with most locations
seeing 80s. MCI and STJ record highs for Sunday is 87.

Monday night - Tuesday:

Medium range models similar in handling a shortwave trough tracking
through the Northern/Central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Associated
cold front will push through the CWA. Increasing warm air advection
multi-layered clouds will overspread the region with scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Considerable amount of CIN
within the warm sector to overcome so thunder chances most likely
tied to minuscule elevated instability. Much cooler air, albeit
nothing worse than seasonal readings, will move into the region.

Wednesday - Friday:

Upper pattern becomes a bit more unsettled with northwest flow and
the remnants of TS Ana diving southeast through the Northern Plains
and into the Mid MO River Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. Models
just starting to take into consideration the energy and moisture
with Ana and won`t be surprised if later model runs ramp up the PoPs
for Wednesday night/early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog has developed well to the NE of the terminals with the exception
of STJ which is reporting MVFR ocnl IFR vis already. A surface trough
is sinking through the terminals overnight making for lgt and vrb
winds. These lgt winds associated with moist conds will lead to fog
at the rest of the terminals as well but should remain lgt btn 3SM-
5SM. Again the exception will be STJ which will occasionally sink to
1/2SM-1SM btn 09Z-13Z...as such have a tempo group for those conds.
Otrw...expect lgt fog to persist til 14Z-16Z with MVFR vis. Beyond
that, expect VFR conds with lgt and vrb winds becmg ESE around 5kts
during the evening under clr skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ005>008-
     014>017-022>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242320
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Tonight - Monday:

Before we discuss the overall pattern into early next week the near
term concerns center around fog potential. Airmass ahead of a
windshift line from western IA into north central KS is quite moist
with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Much drier air resides
behind this boundary which is expected to slide southeast through
the CWA overnight. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF simulated
GOES-R 10.35u-3.9u product, which did a great job on last nights
fog, favors areas south of a IRK to MKC line for fog redeveloping.
Also think there is good chance for at least patchy dense fog over
the southern 1/3 of the CWA. Will hold off on issuing an advisory
and let evening shift evaluate visibility trends.

As for the weekend and next Monday we are looking at a very warm and
dry period. A moderately high amplitude upper ridge will translate
eastward through the Plains/MS Valley allowing a large fetch of
unseasonably warm air to spread northeast. Max temperatures by
Sunday will fall just short of record readings with most locations
seeing 80s. MCI and STJ record highs for Sunday is 87.

Monday night - Tuesday:

Medium range models similar in handling a shortwave trough tracking
through the Northern/Central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Associated
cold front will push through the CWA. Increasing warm air advection
multi-layered clouds will overspread the region with scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Considerable amount of CIN
within the warm sector to overcome so thunder chances most likely
tied to minuscule elevated instability. Much cooler air, albeit
nothing worse than seasonal readings, will move into the region.

Wednesday - Friday:

Upper pattern becomes a bit more unsettled with northwest flow and
the remnants of TS Ana diving southeast through the Northern Plains
and into the Mid MO River Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. Models
just starting to take into consideration the energy and moisture
with Ana and won`t be surprised if later model runs ramp up the PoPs
for Wednesday night/early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The main concern for aviators this TAF period will be the potential
for fog and even dense fog tomorrow morning. However, VFR conds will
prevail until after midnight with just sct-bkn high cirrus. Winds
this evening will diminish out of the SW to around 5kts. A surface
trough will move through the terminals btn 07Z-09Z causing winds to
become lgt and vrb with mainly clr skies. This will allow fog
to develop at the terminals reducing vsbys to 3SM-5SM. The question
then becomes does dry air behind the surface trough allow fog to cont
to be lgt or the moist air near the surface prevail. If the moist air
does prevail then there is the potential for dense fog btn 10Z-14Z
which would reduce vsbys into the IFR range. For the 00Z TAF
issuance, have not included a TEMPO grp for dense fog at the
terminals (with the exception of fog prone STJ) due to uncertainty of
development. However can not rule out the addition of a TEMPO grp for
dense for with the 06Z issuance. In any case, fog will lift from the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z and VFR conds should then prevail through the
remainder of the period with clr skies. Winds throughout the day
tomorrow will be lgt and vrb.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Tonight - Monday:

Before we discuss the overall pattern into early next week the near
term concerns center around fog potential. Airmass ahead of a
windshift line from western IA into north central KS is quite moist
with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Much drier air resides
behind this boundary which is expected to slide southeast through
the CWA overnight. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF simulated
GOES-R 10.35u-3.9u product, which did a great job on last nights
fog, favors areas south of a IRK to MKC line for fog redeveloping.
Also think there is good chance for at least patchy dense fog over
the southern 1/3 of the CWA. Will hold off on issuing an advisory
and let evening shift evaluate visibility trends.

As for the weekend and next Monday we are looking at a very warm and
dry period. A moderately high amplitude upper ridge will translate
eastward through the Plains/MS Valley allowing a large fetch of
unseasonably warm air to spread northeast. Max temperatures by
Sunday will fall just short of record readings with most locations
seeing 80s. MCI and STJ record highs for Sunday is 87.

Monday night - Tuesday:

Medium range models similar in handling a shortwave trough tracking
through the Northern/Central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Associated
cold front will push through the CWA. Increasing warm air advection
multi-layered clouds will overspread the region with scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Considerable amount of CIN
within the warm sector to overcome so thunder chances most likely
tied to minuscule elevated instability. Much cooler air, albeit
nothing worse than seasonal readings, will move into the region.

Wednesday - Friday:

Upper pattern becomes a bit more unsettled with northwest flow and
the remnants of TS Ana diving southeast through the Northern Plains
and into the Mid MO River Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. Models
just starting to take into consideration the energy and moisture
with Ana and won`t be surprised if later model runs ramp up the PoPs
for Wednesday night/early Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Improving conditions will continue through the afternoon hours with
SW winds becoming NE through sunrise. Expect the upper-level cloud deck to
persist through the majority of Friday. Conditions overnight are
favorable for fog formation, though look to be relatively patchy
compared to the previous period. Remaining cloud cover should exit
the area Saturday morning as high pressure builds to the southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Improving conditions will continue through the afternoon hours with
SW winds becoming NE through sunrise. Expect the upper-level cloud deck to
persist through the majority of Friday. Conditions overnight are
favorable for fog formation, though look to be relatively patchy
compared to the previous period. Remaining cloud cover should exit
the area Saturday morning as high pressure builds to the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Widespread fog and low stratus should stay status quo for a couple of
hours, then slowly lift into a high-end IFR deck and eventually into
MVFR before scattering out by this afternoon. With thick cirrus
coming in from the north, don`t expect much more deterioration of
conditions and may in fact see a bit of improvement by sunrise. Some
fog is again possible early Saturday morning but should be more
patchy in nature.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ002>008-
     012>017-020>025-030>033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Widespread fog and low stratus should stay status quo for a couple of
hours, then slowly lift into a high-end IFR deck and eventually into
MVFR before scattering out by this afternoon. With thick cirrus
coming in from the north, don`t expect much more deterioration of
conditions and may in fact see a bit of improvement by sunrise. Some
fog is again possible early Saturday morning but should be more
patchy in nature.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ002>008-
     012>017-020>025-030>033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 240828
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ003>008-
     013>017-021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 240459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ003>008-013>017-
     021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 240459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ003>008-013>017-
     021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 232338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Primary concern for the overnight period through early Friday morning
will be fog, potentially dense. Combining the ingredients of lingering
low-level moisture, light winds, and clearing skies will yield fog to
impact all four TAF sites. MCI and IXD are anticipated to drop down
into at least the IFR category with STJ looking to reach LIFR,
especially during the pre-dawn to just after dawn hours. MKC looks to
not drop quite as low as the three others but will need to be
monitored for possible IFR conditions during the prone hours. Once
the fog/low stratus burns off in the morning, VFR conditions will
return with just some clouds littering the skies in the afternoon.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will continue to prevail throughout
the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 232003
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Cloud cover will remain in place throughout the forecast period with
a break or two expected Thursday evening. Expecting MVFR conditions
to continue with gradual improvement behind the cold front as it
slides eastward. Favorable conditions will present a chance of minor fog
development for all terminals overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 231712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.

After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.

Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Cloud cover will remain in place throughout the forecast period with
a break or two expected Thursday evening. Expecting MVFR conditions
to continue with gradual improvement behind the cold front as it
slides eastward. Favorable conditions will present a chance of minor fog
development for all terminals overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 231712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.

After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.

Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Cloud cover will remain in place throughout the forecast period with
a break or two expected Thursday evening. Expecting MVFR conditions
to continue with gradual improvement behind the cold front as it
slides eastward. Favorable conditions will present a chance of minor fog
development for all terminals overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 231102
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.

After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.

Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Showers moved into the terminals early this morning and will persist
in and around the Kansas City sites for a few hours past sunrise.
KSTJ will likely not see any more stormy activity given current radar
trends. Otherwise, have pushed ceilings down a little based on CIGS
heights noted across eastern Kansas. Expect clouds to lift and begin
scattering out this afternoon allowing VFR conditions to prevail for
the rest of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 230902
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Prefrontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.

After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.

Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...LG









000
FXUS63 KEAX 230452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 230452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 222338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions to prevail through the remainder of the evening hours
before line of showers/lowering ceilings move in around midnight.
Precip is anticipated to remain on the lighter side, leaving visbys
and ceilings currently projected to not drop below MVFR at all four
TAF sites. Low-level cloud deck and precip will exit by the morning
hours with decent clearing by the afternoon on Thursday. Southerly
winds will dominate, making a shift behind this line of precip from
the SW tomorrow. Winds could be gusty at times, especially with the
precip.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 222053
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missoui and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Mitchell








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current conditions are just barley staying in the VFR range early
this morning as low clouds have developed across the Missouri-Kansas
state-line early this morning. Some showers are possible with this
mornings cloud cover, but nothing that should impact the flight
category. Widespread stormy activity is expected to spread across the
region from west to east late tonight ahead of and along a weak front
that will sweep through. Have the onset of rain starting after 04Z
at KSTJ, spreading south into the Kansas City terminals around 05Z to
06Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220857
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
357 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Although chances for some very light rain at the terminals is
starting to shape up have kept VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period. Hi-res models indicate very spotty showery activity
near the aviation terminals, but forecast soundings indicate a rather
deep saturated later, which should indicate a good possibility for
some light rain. Not confident in the least that any rain will cause
visibility restrictions as it should remain very light. Cloud deck
should be around 3-4 kft, so will flirt with MVFR CIGs. Expect rain
chances to quickly end by noon, with the cloud deck perhaps becoming
more scattered through the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities