000
FXUS63 KEAX 212300
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 PM CDT Tue May 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Primary cutoff circulation that pushed a cold front and storms
through eastern Kansas and Missouri Sunday and Monday continues to
spin across the Northern Plains today Convective activity persists
along the southern periphery of the trough, across the Red River
Valley along the OK/TX border into Arkansas. However, in our area
cloud cover and the potently for a few light showers cast off from
the activity to our south appear to be the only concerns through the
remainder of the daylight and evening hours across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri. Only issue for late tonight might be some
patchy ground fog as skies across east central Kansas and central
Missouri may clear out some before sunrise.
Overnight the cutoff low across the Northern Plains will begin to
open up, eventually beginning to phase with a trough currently
rotating through the Hudson Bay. This will leave the nation with a
bit of a blocking pattern in place, with East and West coast troughs
sandwiching a shortwave ridge in place across the Central Plains.
However, before the ridge establishes itself across the Plains, some
more cool air will filter south overnight. This will likely knock
our temperatures down below normal for Wednesday, with highs only
the in the 60s along the Iowa border. Otherwise, there will be a
slight chance of showers Wednesday due to frontogenic forcing across
far northern Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Temperatures will begin to rebound Thursday as the shortwave ridge
moves in, beginning to push temperatures back up to near normal. The
ridge will also keep any threat of storms at bay till late Friday as
series of fast moving shortwave troughs begin ejecting from the West
Coast trough up and over the ridge across the Plains States.
However, the parade of shortwave trough will keep the potential for
unsettled weather across the region Friday night through next
Tuesday. So, yes, there looks to be at least a chance for showers or
thunderstorms through the upcoming holiday weekend. At this time the
threat of any severe weather looks low owing to a miss match between
instability and shear.
Otherwise, expect temperatures to slowly rebound through the weekend
with the persistent shortwave ridge in place. Highs in the 80s will
be possible across the entire region by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Anticipate VFR conditions to continue through the period. Some MVFR
ceilings over Nebraska, but confidence isn`t particularly high those
or additional development will make it to terminals overnight, so
left VFR. Otherwise current gusty westerly winds will reduce in
speed around sunset.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Blair
000
FXUS63 KEAX 212035
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 PM CDT Tue May 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Primary cutoff circulation that pushed a cold front and storms
through eastern Kansas and Missouri Sunday and Monday continues to
spin across the Northern Plains today Convective activity persists
along the southern periphery of the trough, across the Red River
Valley along the OK/TX border into Arkansas. However, in our area
cloud cover and the potently for a few light showers cast off from
the activity to our south appear to be the only concerns through the
remainder of the daylight and evening hours across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri. Only issue for late tonight might be some
patchy ground fog as skies across east central Kansas and central
Missouri may clear out some before sunrise.
Overnight the cutoff low across the Northern Plains will begin to
open up, eventually beginning to phase with a trough currently
rotating through the Hudson Bay. This will leave the nation with a
bit of a blocking pattern in place, with East and West coast troughs
sandwiching a shortwave ridge in place across the Central Plains.
However, before the ridge establishes itself across the Plains, some
more cool air will filter south overnight. This will likely knock
our temperatures down below normal for Wednesday, with highs only
the in the 60s along the Iowa border. Otherwise, there will be a
slight chance of showers Wednesday due to frontogenic forcing across
far northern Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Temperatures will begin to rebound Thursday as the shortwave ridge
moves in, beginning to push temperatures back up to near normal. The
ridge will also keep any threat of storms at bay till late Friday as
series of fast moving shortwave troughs begin ejecting from the West
Coast trough up and over the ridge across the Plains States.
However, the parade of shortwave trough will keep the potential for
unsettled weather across the region Friday night through next
Tuesday. So, yes, there looks to be at least a chance for showers or
thunderstorms through the upcoming holiday weekend. At this time the
threat of any severe weather looks low owing to a miss match between
instability and shear.
Otherwise, expect temperatures to slowly rebound through the weekend
with the persistent shortwave ridge in place. Highs in the 80s will
be possible across the entire region by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR conditions are currently expected through this TAF cycle. Some
mid to low level clouds will impact the terminals early Wednesday
morning, but they currently look to stay just in the VFR range,
though later updates to the forecast might adjust this down.
Otherwise, southwest winds today will become light overnight, but will
quickly become gusty again after sunrise Wednesday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter
000
FXUS63 KEAX 211729
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 PM CDT Tue May 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
The main upper-level low is still spinning in the Upper Missouri
Valley but the cold front associated with the upper storm system may
almost be out of our forecast area by this afternoon. So the best
chances for storms looks to only be our southeastern zones. The NAM
hangs the front up this afternoon further north but even with the
slower NAM, the instability is very weak and shear is marginal at
best for storm organization. So any storms we do see are not expected
to become severe.
Outside of the small convective chances for our southeastern zones,
the forecast for today and tonight looks quiet. Cooler and drier air
will move into the region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected
across much of the area.
The persistent upper low will finally begin to move east but as it
does, may bring a small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
northern and northeastern Missouri. Being that it`s May, with surface
temperatures expected to be in the 60s across northern Missouri, and
the colder air aloft associated with the upper low moving closer to
the forecast area, some diurnally driven showers and few storms look
possible. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Quiet, comfortable weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure
builds into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes area. This
will bring drier northeasterly winds to the area with highs in the
middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Near to above normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions
are expected through the long-range forecast period as a shallow
ridge builds over the eastern Plains and several shortwave troughs
ride over the ridge axis.
The first shortwave trough should push into the area by late Friday
or early Saturday, bringing scattered thunderstorms chances into the
forecast area for the end of the work week and into the weekend. The
best chance of precipitation should be Saturday as the main trough
axis moves through. A frontal boundary may linger across northern or
northeast portions of the region on Sunday and Monday, stretching
precipitation chances through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week, but the overall chance of precipitation will be
much lower with this more subtle feature. Another shortwave trough
will head into the region late Monday and into Tuesday, which could
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms into the region for
the end of the forecast period.
Highs will start out in the lower to mid 70`s for Friday, then will
warm into the upper 70`s and into the 80`s by the end of the period
as the ridge strengthens across the region. Lows should also be a
few degrees above normal in the mid 60`s as a result of cloud cover
and precipitation around the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR conditions are currently expected through this TAF cycle. Some
mid to low level clouds will impact the terminals early Wednesday
morning, but they currently look to stay just in the VFR range,
though later updates to the forecast might adjust this down.
Otherwise, southwest winds today will become light overnight, but will
quickly become gusty again after sunrise Wednesday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
000
FXUS63 KEAX 211044
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
544 AM CDT Tue May 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
The main upper-level low is still spinning in the Upper Missouri
Valley but the cold front associated with the upper storm system may
almost be out of our forecast area by this afternoon. So the best
chances for storms looks to only be our southeastern zones. The NAM
hangs the front up this afternoon further north but even with the
slower NAM, the instability is very weak and shear is marginal at
best for storm organization. So any storms we do see are not expected
to become severe.
Outside of the small convective chances for our southeastern zones,
the forecast for today and tonight looks quiet. Cooler and drier air
will move into the region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected
across much of the area.
The persistent upper low will finally begin to move east but as it
does, may bring a small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
northern and northeastern Missouri. Being that it`s May, with surface
temperatures expected to be in the 60s across northern Missouri, and
the colder air aloft associated with the upper low moving closer to
the forecast area, some diurnally driven showers and few storms look
possible. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Quiet, comfortable weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure
builds into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes area. This
will bring drier northeasterly winds to the area with highs in the
middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Near to above normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions
are expected through the long-range forecast period as a shallow
ridge builds over the eastern Plains and several shortwave troughs
ride over the ridge axis.
The first shortwave trough should push into the area by late Friday
or early Saturday, bringing scattered thunderstorms chances into the
forecast area for the end of the work week and into the weekend. The
best chance of precipitation should be Saturday as the main trough
axis moves through. A frontal boundary may linger across northern or
northeast portions of the region on Sunday and Monday, stretching
precipitation chances through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week, but the overall chance of precipitation will be
much lower with this more subtle feature. Another shortwave trough
will head into the region late Monday and into Tuesday, which could
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms into the region for
the end of the forecast period.
Highs will start out in the lower to mid 70`s for Friday, then will
warm into the upper 70`s and into the 80`s by the end of the period
as the ridge strengthens across the region. Lows should also be a
few degrees above normal in the mid 60`s as a result of cloud cover
and precipitation around the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will generally
be from the west through the period with winds increasing to 10-15 kt
range this afternoon. Winds will diminish around sunset. Lower
ceilings, though still VFR are expected to move into the region
tonight as the upper-low drifts southeastward. Lower ceilings,
possibly MVFR or lower, may move through northern Missouri by 12Z and
possibly further south, impacting the terminals after 12Z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KEAX 210808
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 AM CDT Tue May 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
The main upper-level low is still spinning in the Upper Missouri
Valley but the cold front associated with the upper storm system may
almost be out of our forecast area by this afternoon. So the best
chances for storms looks to only be our southeastern zones. The NAM
hangs the front up this afternoon further north but even with the
slower NAM, the instability is very weak and shear is marginal at
best for storm organization. So any storms we do see are not expected
to become severe.
Outside of the small convective chances for our southeastern zones,
the forecast for today and tonight looks quiet. Cooler and drier air
will move into the region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected
across much of the area.
The persistent upper low will finally begin to move east but as it
does, may bring a small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
northern and northeastern Missouri. Being that it`s May, with surface
temperatures expected to be in the 60s across northern Missouri, and
the colder air aloft associated with the upper low moving closer to
the forecast area, some diurnally driven showers and few storms look
possible. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Quiet, comfortable weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure
builds into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes area. This
will bring drier northeasterly winds to the area with highs in the
middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Near to above normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions
are expected through the long-range forecast period as a shallow
ridge builds over the eastern Plains and several shortwave troughs
ride over the ridge axis.
The first shortwave trough should push into the area by late Friday
or early Saturday, bringing scattered thunderstorms chances into the
forecast area for the end of the work week and into the weekend. The
best chance of precipitation should be Saturday as the main trough
axis moves through. A frontal boundary may linger across northern or
northeast portions of the region on Sunday and Monday, stretching
precipitation chances through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week, but the overall chance of precipitation will be
much lower with this more subtle feature. Another shortwave trough
will head into the region late Monday and into Tuesday, which could
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms into the region for
the end of the forecast period.
Highs will start out in the lower to mid 70`s for Friday, then will
warm into the upper 70`s and into the 80`s by the end of the period
as the ridge strengthens across the region. Lows should also be a
few degrees above normal in the mid 60`s as a result of cloud cover
and precipitation around the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR conditions are expected at the terminal through the entire valid
period. High level clouds from thunderstorms south of the region will
continue to move east and thin over western Missouri. There may be
some afternoon clouds around 5k ft build by noon or so but any
thunderstorm activity should well off to the east of the region.
Skies should become clear during the evening but there is chance that
lower clouds could move into northern Missouri associated with the
upper low over the northern Plains. The better chance of this
occurring looks after this valid period however, so have cleared
things out after 01Z or so.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KEAX 210522
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough. MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail. This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.
Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.
Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR conditions are expected at the terminal through the entire valid
period. High level clouds from thunderstorms south of the region will
continue to move east and thin over western Missouri. There may be
some afternoon clouds around 5k ft build by noon or so but any
thunderstorm activity should well off to the east of the region.
Skies should become clear during the evening but there is chance that
lower clouds could move into northern Missouri associated with the
upper low over the northern Plains. The better chance of this
occurring looks after this valid period however, so have cleared
things out after 01Z or so.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KEAX 210050
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
750 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 749 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Main line of convection is pushing east of the forecast area, and
tornado watch 190 has been canceled for all but a few counties
across central MO, and these will be cleared shortly.
Main front is just west of I-35 and is sparking a new line of
convection over IA and far northern MO. It`s still uncertain how far
south this line will build as the sun goes down and surface-based
inhibition begins to increase. Mesoscale model guidance is backing
off on convection developing southward along the front toward KC, so
it appears the window for any additional strong storm development may
be shrinking. However, if storms do develop, shear and instability
profiles will support strong to severe storms which could develop
into a line with large hail and damaging winds, mainly north of the
Missouri River. Odds of this happening seem to be about 30 percent or
less at this point.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough. MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail. This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.
Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.
Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Broken line of cumulus north of St. Joseph slowly becoming agitated
early this evening. General trends support the potential for minor
development north of St. Joseph, however feel that the KC terminals
will remain clear of additional convection.
Surface front remains just west of the state line at 6pm, and should
push eastward by 03Z. Into daybreak, expecting VFR conditions and a
west wind.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux
000
FXUS63 KEAX 202300
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough. MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail. This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.
Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.
Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Broken line of cumulus north of St. Joseph slowly becoming agitated
early this evening. General trends support the potential for minor
development north of St. Joseph, however feel that the KC terminals
will remain clear of additional convection.
Surface front remains just west of the state line at 6pm, and should
push eastward by 03Z. Into daybreak, expecting VFR conditions and a
west wind.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux
000
FXUS63 KEAX 202014
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough. MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail. This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.
Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.
Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A rather messy afternoon forecast continues for convective chances
near the major terminals. Several outflow boundaries linger over the
CWA, with the one with the highest potential developing convection
stretching from Fort Scott eastward to Columbia. Further north, a
secondary elevated boundary continues to lift through northern
Missouri and Kansas, and as we continually destabilize this
afternoon, it too may become a focus for scattered convection.
Will also need to watch the true cold front entering NW Missouri
later today. For now, unable to pinpoint an exact time or location
for convective development in relationship to the terminals, and will
continue to advertise VCTS through the evening.
Quiet conditions do return after midnight, with VFR prevailing.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux
000
FXUS63 KEAX 201803
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Southern portions of the CWA are slowly beginning to destabilize this
afternoon, primarily along a stalled remnant convective boundary from
Ft. Scott to Columbia which has been reinforced by a developing MCV
in eastern Missouri. Weak convective initiation has developed over
southeastern Kansas along this boundary, but weak capping is still
preventing this convection from growing upscale.
Further north, weak elevated boundary on the nose of a surge of
higher instability has reached the KC metro. As inhibition is
weakened within the upcoming 1-2 hours convection should begin to
grow more upscale in southeastern Kansas along this boundary, with
prevailing flow taking this precip northeastward into the
southwestern portions of the CWA. The most uncertain portion of the
forecast remains with the eventual evolution of this outflow in it`s
efforts to lift northward, which if it doesn`t lift northward will
lead to more of a wind/hail threat as opposed to tornadic threat
especially over the northern portions of the current watch. In
actuality, the tornadic threat may be significantly higher over
southeastern KS and southern MO especially toward the 00Z timeframe,
but the conditional threat northward can`t be discounted.
Further east, significant stabilization may prevent strong convection
from expanding into mid-Missouri for several hours. Later this aftn
and evening, still appears likely that scattered convection will be
triggered along advancing secondary cold front over Nebraska and
north central Kansas with steep mid-level lapse rates suggesting a
large hail threat and parallel flow producing bowing segments.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
For today and tonight, ongoing convection in southern Missouri and
Kansas is spreading cloud cover over the region this morning. This
cloud cover should move away and/or dissipate by late this morning
leading to a good recovery in instability for afternoon/evening
convection. The main question is where any boundary, either synoptic
or outflow, will be to initiate convection. That said, convection
looks to develop along the front which is forecast to be sliding
into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Convection could also
develop on any residual outflow boundaries by this afternoon but
with such a mess of a surface pattern right now it is difficult to
know where they may be by this afternoon. Models show winds to be
veered ahead of the main front which will limit the tornado
potential. Although surface winds could be backed some in the
vicinity of any outflow boundary locally enhancing the risk. Shear
will be ample enough for storm organization and likely supercell
structures so near-term mesoanalysis will again be crucial this
afternoon to locate any enhanced tornado risk area along any boundary.
Otherwise, the biggest threats look to be from large hail and
damaging winds. With the shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to
the boundary and winds nearly unidirectional, storms may more quickly
evolve into bowing segments or a convective system, thus enhancing
the wind threat. This orientation may also lead to a localized heavy
rain and flooding threat, particularly if storms train along our
southern counties where heavy rains fell tonight.
For Tuesday, there will remain a chance for storms as the main upper
trough/low continues to send embedded impulses through the region.
Moisture and instability may be enough so that afternoon storms can
not be ruled out at this time. But with winds continuing to be veered
there will be limited convergence along any boundary and thus a more
limited severe threat.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Tuesday night into Sunday...The cold front will push through the
remainder of the CWA Tuesday night, with only lingering chances for
thunderstorms across central Missouri. The upper low will begin to
move east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with the surface cold
front becoming stationary along the Interstate 40 corridor in OK and
AR. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region
with mainly dry and cooler weather expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. The western portion of the surface front will begin
lifting back northward across the Central Plains by the end of the
work week. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the
southwestern sections of the CWA Friday into the weekend, closest to
the frontal boundary and better instability. A weak upper level
ridge will develop over the central CONUS by the weekend with a few
upper waves rounding the ridge, resulting in a chance for convection
across portions of the CWA. As for temperatures, readings will be
slightly below normal for the Wednesday through Friday before
returning to near normal levels for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A rather messy afternoon forecast continues for convective chances
near the major terminals. Several outflow boundaries linger over the
CWA, with the one with the highest potential developing convection
stretching from Fort Scott eastward to Columbia. Further north, a
secondary elevated boundary continues to lift through northern
Missouri and Kansas, and as we continually destabilize this
afternoon, it too may become a focus for scattered convection.
Will also need to watch the true cold front entering NW Missouri
later today. For now, unable to pinpoint an exact time or location
for convective development in relationship to the terminals, and will
continue to advertise VCTS through the evening.
Quiet conditions do return after midnight, with VFR prevailing.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Dux
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Dux
000
FXUS63 KEAX 201723
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1223 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
For today and tonight, ongoing convection in southern Missouri and
Kansas is spreading cloud cover over the region this morning. This
cloud cover should move away and/or dissipate by late this morning
leading to a good recovery in instability for afternoon/evening
convection. The main question is where any boundary, either synoptic
or outflow, will be to initiate convection. That said, convection
looks to develop along the front which is forecast to be sliding
into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Convection could also
develop on any residual outflow boundaries by this afternoon but
with such a mess of a surface pattern right now it is difficult to
know where they may be by this afternoon. Models show winds to be
veered ahead of the main front which will limit the tornado
potential. Although surface winds could be backed some in the
vicinity of any outflow boundary locally enhancing the risk. Shear
will be ample enough for storm organization and likely supercell
structures so near-term mesoanalysis will again be crucial this
afternoon to locate any enhanced tornado risk area along any boundary.
Otherwise, the biggest threats look to be from large hail and
damaging winds. With the shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to
the boundary and winds nearly unidirectional, storms may more quickly
evolve into bowing segments or a convective system, thus enhancing
the wind threat. This orientation may also lead to a localized heavy
rain and flooding threat, particularly if storms train along our
southern counties where heavy rains fell tonight.
For Tuesday, there will remain a chance for storms as the main upper
trough/low continues to send embedded impulses through the region.
Moisture and instability may be enough so that afternoon storms can
not be ruled out at this time. But with winds continuing to be veered
there will be limited convergence along any boundary and thus a more
limited severe threat.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Tuesday night into Sunday...The cold front will push through the
remainder of the CWA Tuesday night, with only lingering chances for
thunderstorms across central Missouri. The upper low will begin to
move east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with the surface cold
front becoming stationary along the Interstate 40 corridor in OK and
AR. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region
with mainly dry and cooler weather expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. The western portion of the surface front will begin
lifting back northward across the Central Plains by the end of the
work week. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the
southwestern sections of the CWA Friday into the weekend, closest to
the frontal boundary and better instability. A weak upper level
ridge will develop over the central CONUS by the weekend with a few
upper waves rounding the ridge, resulting in a chance for convection
across portions of the CWA. As for temperatures, readings will be
slightly below normal for the Wednesday through Friday before
returning to near normal levels for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A rather messy afternoon forecast continues for convective chances
near the major terminals. Several outflow boundaries linger over the
CWA, with the one with the highest potential developing convection
stretching from Fort Scott eastward to Columbia. Further north, a
secondary elevated boundary continues to lift through northern
Missouri and Kansas, and as we continually destabilize this
afternoon, it too may become a focus for scattered convection.
Will also need to watch the true cold front entering NW Missouri
later today. For now, unable to pinpoint an exact time or location
for convective development in relationship to the terminals, and will
continue to advertise VCTS through the evening.
Quiet conditions do return after midnight, with VFR prevailing.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Dux
000
FXUS63 KEAX 201050
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Mon May 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
For today and tonight, ongoing convection in southern Missouri and
Kansas is spreading cloud cover over the region this morning. This
cloud cover should move away and/or dissipate by late this morning
leading to a good recovery in instability for afternoon/evening
convection. The main question is where any boundary, either synoptic
or outflow, will be to initiate convection. That said, convection
looks to develop along the front which is forecast to be sliding
into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Convection could also
develop on any residual outflow boundaries by this afternoon but
with such a mess of a surface pattern right now it is difficult to
know where they may be by this afternoon. Models show winds to be
veered ahead of the main front which will limit the tornado
potential. Although surface winds could be backed some in the
vicinity of any outflow boundary locally enhancing the risk. Shear
will be ample enough for storm organization and likely supercell
structures so near-term mesoanalysis will again be crucial this
afternoon to locate any enhanced tornado risk area along any boundary.
Otherwise, the biggest threats look to be from large hail and
damaging winds. With the shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to
the boundary and winds nearly unidirectional, storms may more quickly
evolve into bowing segments or a convective system, thus enhancing
the wind threat. This orientation may also lead to a localized heavy
rain and flooding threat, particularly if storms train along our
southern counties where heavy rains fell tonight.
For Tuesday, there will remain a chance for storms as the main upper
trough/low continues to send embedded impulses through the region.
Moisture and instability may be enough so that afternoon storms can
not be ruled out at this time. But with winds continuing to be veered
there will be limited convergence along any boundary and thus a more
limited severe threat.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Tuesday night into Sunday...The cold front will push through the
remainder of the CWA Tuesday night, with only lingering chances for
thunderstorms across central Missouri. The upper low will begin to
move east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with the surface cold
front becoming stationary along the Interstate 40 corridor in OK and
AR. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region
with mainly dry and cooler weather expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. The western portion of the surface front will begin
lifting back northward across the Central Plains by the end of the
work week. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the
southwestern sections of the CWA Friday into the weekend, closest to
the frontal boundary and better instability. A weak upper level
ridge will develop over the central CONUS by the weekend with a few
upper waves rounding the ridge, resulting in a chance for convection
across portions of the CWA. As for temperatures, readings will be
slightly below normal for the Wednesday through Friday before
returning to near normal levels for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR conditions are expected through at least this morning with high
clouds from thunderstorms to our south moving out or dissipating.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon ahead of a slowly advancing
front, but there remains a good amount of uncertainty with just where
convection will develop and its timing into the terminals. So have
continued the VCTS group from this afternoon through late this
evening. Winds shift to the west and skies begin to clear tonight as
storms move east of the terminals after 1 am.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KEAX 200840
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CDT Mon May 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
For today and tonight, ongoing convection in southern Missouri and
Kansas is spreading cloud cover over the region this morning. This
cloud cover should move away and/or dissipate by late this morning
leading to a good recovery in instability for afternoon/evening
convection. The main question is where any boundary, either synoptic
or outflow, will be to initiate convection. That said, convection
looks to develop along the front which is forecast to be sliding
into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Convection could also
develop on any residual outflow boundaries by this afternoon but
with such a mess of a surface pattern right now it is difficult to
know where they may be by this afternoon. Models show winds to be
veered ahead of the main front which will limit the tornado
potential. Although surface winds could be backed some in the
vicinity of any outflow boundary locally enhancing the risk. Shear
will be ample enough for storm organization and likely supercell
structures so near-term mesoanalysis will again be crucial this
afternoon to locate any enhanced tornado risk area along any boundary.
Otherwise, the biggest threats look to be from large hail and
damaging winds. With the shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to
the boundary and winds nearly unidirectional, storms may more quickly
evolve into bowing segments or a convective system, thus enhancing
the wind threat. This orientation may also lead to a localized heavy
rain and flooding threat, particularly if storms train along our
southern counties where heavy rains fell tonight.
For Tuesday, there will remain a chance for storms as the main upper
trough/low continues to send embedded impulses through the region.
Moisture and instability may be enough so that afternoon storms can
not be ruled out at this time. But with winds continuing to be veered
there will be limited convergence along any boundary and thus a more
limited severe threat.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
Tuesday night into Sunday...The cold front will push through the
remainder of the CWA Tuesday night, with only lingering chances for
thunderstorms across central Missouri. The upper low will begin to
move east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with the surface cold
front becoming stationary along the Interstate 40 corridor in OK and
AR. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region
with mainly dry and cooler weather expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. The western portion of the surface front will begin
lifting back northward across the Central Plains by the end of the
work week. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the
southwestern sections of the CWA Friday into the weekend, closest to
the frontal boundary and better instability. A weak upper level
ridge will develop over the central CONUS by the weekend with a few
upper waves rounding the ridge, resulting in a chance for convection
across portions of the CWA. As for temperatures, readings will be
slightly below normal for the Wednesday through Friday before
returning to near normal levels for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR conditions are expected in the wake of tonight`s thunderstorms.
But we will see high level clouds continuing to spread across the
area from thunderstorms over southern Missouri. Winds should remain
mostly from the south to the southwest tonight and become more
persistently from the southwest by late Monday morning. Additional
thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon but there is
considerable uncertainty at this time regarding the timing and
location. So for now will just carry a VCTS group from 21Z onward.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KEAX 200512
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 AM CDT Mon May 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.
Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.
Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.
Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control. Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains. Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR conditions are expected in the wake of tonight`s thunderstorms.
But we will see high level clouds continuing to spread across the
area from thunderstorms over southern Missouri. Winds should remain
mostly from the south to the southwest tonight and become more
persistently from the southwest by late Monday morning. Additional
thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon but there is
considerable uncertainty at this time regarding the timing and
location. So for now will just carry a VCTS group from 21Z onward.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KEAX 192351
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.
Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.
Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.
Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control. Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains. Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Line of severe thunderstorms tracking northeast 35kts will affect the
KMCI/KMKC terminals for about 2 hours at the start of the forecast.
High probability for winds greater than 50kts and potential for large
hail with this line. KSTJ will also be affected by this same line but
convection may last for an hour or two longer. After passage of this
line the rain chances pretty much end. Will be watching for re-
development towards sunrise Monday as a couple of the short range
convective models are picking up on this.
Otherwise, VFR conditions for Monday. With the frontal boundary
still draped over west central MO through Monday there is a chance
for convection to reform from Kansas City southward with chances
increasing the further south you get away from Kansas City.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...MJ
000
FXUS63 KEAX 192216
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
516 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 514 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Convection is quickly growing upscale over central and eastern
Kansas with overall mode taking a quick transition to quasi-linear.
Still may see a few supercells ahead of this developing line capable
of producing very large hail, particularly across far northwest MO
and northeast KS. Overall tornado threat across that area is
relatively low at this time.
Large bowing structure developing near Emporia is taking a track
toward Kansas City, timed to arrive into the KC metro around 7 or 8
pm. As mentioned in an earlier discussion, low-level winds will
become increasingly favorable for bow echoes and embedded
mesovortices capable of producing very strong winds and tornadoes as
the line reaches the MO/KS border. Thus, there is increasing concern
for a potential widespread damaging wind event with a few embedded
tornadoes across east central Kansas and west central Missouri,
including all of the Kansas City metro. The potential also exists for
some significant wind gusts greater than 70 mph when the line
arrives. This wind and isolated tornado threat will continue eastward
later this evening toward central MO, but overall trends may be to
slowly weaken after the storms get east of KC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.
Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.
Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.
Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control. Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains. Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Line of storms is expected to rapidly develop later this afternoon
across eastern Kansas, ahead of a weak wave that is currently visible
as a band of altocumulus from GRI to SLN and west of ICT. While
timing is still somewhat uncertain, best guess at this time is that
this line of storms will approach the KS/MO state line around 00Z,
progressing toward IRK and COU toward 04Z, give or take a couple of
hours. These storms may be strong with large hail and severe wind
gusts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
000
FXUS63 KEAX 191945
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.
Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.
Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.
Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control. Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains. Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Line of storms is expected to rapidly develop later this afternoon
across eastern Kansas, ahead of a weak wave that is currently visible
as a band of altocumulus from GRI to SLN and west of ICT. While
timing is still somewhat uncertain, best guess at this time is that
this line of storms will approach the KS/MO state line around 00Z,
progressing toward IRK and COU toward 04Z, give or take a couple of
hours. These storms may be strong with large hail and severe wind
gusts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
000
FXUS63 KEAX 191740
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1240 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Convective complex that tracked into western MO around sunrise is now
rapidly weakening across central and northeast Missouri. A weak
mesoscale convective vortex can be seen in the wake of this system
tracking into southwest Iowa. Subsidence behind this feature has
allowed skies to rapidly clear out across eastern KS and western MO,
and this trend will continue through the rest of the morning leaving
the region in good shape to warm up into the 80s today.
Good conditions for heating this afternoon will allow the airmass to
become strongly unstable, although last night`s convective complexes
scoured out some of the high moisture that was in place yesterday
afternoon. Dewpoints that were in the upper 60s and low 70s have now
dropped into the lower and middle 60s across much of Kansas and
western MO. However, moisture return is already getting underway
across Oklahoma, and 12Z soundings from OUN and SGF depict plenty of
moisture above the surface and below 850 hPa that should advect into
the area this afternoon and mix down to give surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s, possibly lower 70s. Dewpoints could also be boosted by the
ground moisture left over from last night`s rain that will evaporate
into the boundary layer.
How high dewpoints get this afternoon will be a key factor in
determining severe potential, especially tornado potential. As mid-
level flow becomes supportive of organized severe storms this
afternoon, low-level flow will also increase near and east of the
KS/MO state line, particularly early this evening. This could set a
short window favorable for tornadoes and even strong tornadoes if LCL
heights can become low enough and 0-3 km CAPE supportive of strong
low-level updrafts. These conditions are likely to be met near the
KS/MO state line around 00Z if dewpoints can rise to near 70 degrees.
Regardless of tornado threat, we still expect supercells capable of
very large hail to develop over eastern KS this afternoon and
gradually merge into a convective line over western MO through the
evening. This line will be capable of widespread damaging winds. Will
also need to watch for embedded mesovortices and tornadoes within
this line as it spreads into strong low-level shear across central MO
later this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Main concern in the short term revolves around the potential for all
modes of severe weather late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
as well as the potential for a second round of severe weather on
Monday.
A broad, slightly negatively-tilted upper level trough is moving
through the eastern Rockies this morning. This trough will move out
into the northern Plains today with an upper level low developing
across South Dakota. However, a lead wave in the base of the trough
will rotate into the Central Plains by tomorrow afternoon. This will
force a stout cold front into eastern Kansas. As this wave over
takes the front this should allow for initiation during the late
afternoon across eastern Kansas. Model soundings show that when
storms initiate there will be a very moist environment to work with
as dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70. Also, there will
be steep lapses rates across the region as well as CAPE values of
2000-3000J/kg. So, the ingredients are there for severe weather
however the caveat will be if early morning convection across
central and southeastern Kansas continues to lift northeastward this
could led to increased cloud cover and may not allow the
environment to recover and realize that potential instability. That
being said if cloud cover does break and we do realize the forecast
highs of the mid 80s tomorrow there is a good potential for severe
weather. Models in good agreement in trying to develop supercells
across eastern Kansas during the late afternoon tomorrow. Early in
the evolution of these storm all modes, large hail, damaging winds
and even an isolated tornado will be possible. As these storms move
eastward into the western CWA they will begin to form a line of
storms as which point the main threats would then become large hail
and damaging winds. This line of storms is then expected to move
eastward across the entire CWA tomorrow night.
The severe weather potential on Monday becomes even more uncertain
based on whether the environment can recover during the afternoon
hours. The set up however is similar to Sunday only with a slight
shift south and east to severe potential. the upper level low will
continue to rotate across South Dakota and northern Nebraska. A
secondary cold front will develop across the Plains states early
Monday and shift eastward into eastern Kansas by Monday evening.
Again, conditions will be favorable for severe weather with steep
mid level lapse rates, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and CAPE values
between 2500-3500J/kg. Also, of interest is models show a jet streak
moving through the area Monday evening which would aid in supercell
development with again all three mode of severe weather possible.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Monday night into Tuesday...Convection will be ongoing Monday night
across the CWA with strong to severe weather possible as discussed
during the short term. Thunderstorms will gradually shift east of
the area by Tuesday morning. The upper low will only make slow
progress eastward, with the surface cold front located from north
central to southwest Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. Another round of
thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the boundary
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Severe weather will once again be
possible, mainly in the eastern quarter of the CWA. Thereafter, the
front is expected to clear the area by Tuesday night, ending chances
for precipitation. The front will sag southward and stall near
southern Missouri into south central Kansas by Wednesday into the
end of the work week. Likewise, slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible mainly across southern sections of
the CWA through Friday, in areas closest to the frontal boundary.
Near seasonal temperatures can be expected through the period, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Line of storms is expected to rapidly develop later this afternoon
across eastern Kansas, ahead of a weak wave that is currently visible
as a band of altocumulus from GRI to SLN and west of ICT. While
timing is still somewhat uncertain, best guess at this time is that
this line of storms will approach the KS/MO state line around 00Z,
progressing toward IRK and COU toward 04Z, give or take a couple of
hours. These storms may be strong with large hail and severe wind
gusts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
000
FXUS63 KEAX 191546
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1046 AM CDT Sun May 19 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Convective complex that tracked into western MO around sunrise is now
rapidly weakening across central and northeast Missouri. A weak
mesoscale convective vortex can be seen in the wake of this system
tracking into southwest Iowa. Subsidence behind this feature has
allowed skies to rapidly clear out across eastern KS and western MO,
and this trend will continue through the rest of the morning leaving
the region in good shape to warm up into the 80s today.
Good conditions for heating this afternoon will allow the airmass to
become strongly unstable, although last night`s convective complexes
scoured out some of the high moisture that was in place yesterday
afternoon. Dewpoints that were in the upper 60s and low 70s have now
dropped into the lower and middle 60s across much of Kansas and
western MO. However, moisture return is already getting underway
across Oklahoma, and 12Z soundings from OUN and SGF depict plenty of
moisture above the surface and below 850 hPa that should advect into
the area this afternoon and mix down to give surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s, possibly lower 70s. Dewpoints could also be boosted by the
ground moisture left over from last night`s rain that will evaporate
into the boundary layer.
How high dewpoints get this afternoon will be a key factor in
determining severe potential, especially tornado potential. As mid-
level flow becomes supportive of organized severe storms this
afternoon, low-level flow will also increase near and east of the
KS/MO state line, particularly early this evening. This could set a
short window favorable for tornadoes and even strong tornadoes if LCL
heights can become low enough and 0-3 km CAPE supportive of strong
low-level updrafts. These conditions are likely to be met near the
KS/MO state line around 00Z if dewpoints can rise to near 70 degrees.
Regardless of tornado threat, we still expect supercells capable of
very large hail to develop over eastern KS this afternoon and
gradually merge into a convective line over western MO through the
evening. This line will be capable of widespread damaging winds. Will
also need to watch for embedded mesovortices and tornadoes within
this line as it spreads into strong low-level shear across central MO
later this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Main concern in the short term revolves around the potential for all
modes of severe weather late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
as well as the potential for a second round of severe weather on
Monday.
A broad, slightly negatively-tilted upper level trough is moving
through the eastern Rockies this morning. This trough will move out
into the northern Plains today with an upper level low developing
across South Dakota. However, a lead wave in the base of the trough
will rotate into the Central Plains by tomorrow afternoon. This will
force a stout cold front into eastern Kansas. As this wave over
takes the front this should allow for initiation during the late
afternoon across eastern Kansas. Model soundings show that when
storms initiate there will be a very moist environment to work with
as dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70. Also, there will
be steep lapses rates across the region as well as CAPE values of
2000-3000J/kg. So, the ingredients are there for severe weather
however the caveat will be if early morning convection across
central and southeastern Kansas continues to lift northeastward this
could led to increased cloud cover and may not allow the
environment to recover and realize that potential instability. That
being said if cloud cover does break and we do realize the forecast
highs of the mid 80s tomorrow there is a good potential for severe
weather. Models in good agreement in trying to develop supercells
across eastern Kansas during the late afternoon tomorrow. Early in
the evolution of these storm all modes, large hail, damaging winds
and even an isolated tornado will be possible. As these storms move
eastward into the western CWA they will begin to form a line of
storms as which point the main threats would then become large hail
and damaging winds. This line of storms is then expected to move
eastward across the entire CWA tomorrow night.
The severe weather potential on Monday becomes even more uncertain
based on whether the environment can recover during the afternoon
hours. The set up however is similar to Sunday only with a slight
shift south and east to severe potential. the upper level low will
continue to rotate across South Dakota and northern Nebraska. A
secondary cold front will develop across the Plains states early
Monday and shift eastward into eastern Kansas by Monday evening.
Again, conditions will be favorable for severe weather with steep
mid level lapse rates, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and CAPE values
between 2500-3500J/kg. Also, of interest is models show a jet streak
moving through the area Monday evening which would aid in supercell
development with again all three mode of severe weather possible.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Monday night into Tuesday...Convection will be ongoing Monday night
across the CWA with strong to severe weather possible as discussed
during the short term. Thunderstorms will gradually shift east of
the area by Tuesday morning. The upper low will only make slow
progress eastward, with the surface cold front located from north
central to southwest Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. Another round of
thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the boundary
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Severe weather will once again be
possible, mainly in the eastern quarter of the CWA. Thereafter, the
front is expected to clear the area by Tuesday night, ending chances
for precipitation. The front will sag southward and stall near
southern Missouri into south central Kansas by Wednesday into the
end of the work week. Likewise, slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible mainly across southern sections of
the CWA through Friday, in areas closest to the frontal boundary.
Near seasonal temperatures can be expected through the period, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
An area of rain with embedded thunder was moving toward western
Missouri this morning and should arrive at all terminals by the time
the forecast becomes valid. Cloud bases are fairly high with this
area so other than a period of rain do not expect there to be much in
the way of impacts at the terminals. This rain should dissipate by
mid morning with clouds beginning to thin out by this afternoon. This
will allow for a very unstable airmass to develop across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting the stage for severe
thunderstorms at all terminals late this afternoon and this evening.
The most likely timing into STJ, MCI, and MKC looks to be between
00Z and 04Z with conditions improving after this time frame.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KEAX 191112
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 AM CDT Sun May 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Main concern in the short term revolves around the potential for all
modes of severe weather late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
as well as the potential for a second round of severe weather on
Monday.
A broad, slightly negatively-tilted upper level trough is moving
through the eastern Rockies this morning. This trough will move out
into the northern Plains today with an upper level low developing
across South Dakota. However, a lead wave in the base of the trough
will rotate into the Central Plains by tomorrow afternoon. This will
force a stout cold front into eastern Kansas. As this wave over
takes the front this should allow for initiation during the late
afternoon across eastern Kansas. Model soundings show that when
storms initiate there will be a very moist environment to work with
as dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70. Also, there will
be steep lapses rates across the region as well as CAPE values of
2000-3000J/kg. So, the ingredients are there for severe weather
however the caveat will be if early morning convection across
central and southeastern Kansas continues to lift northeastward this
could led to increased cloud cover and may not allow the
environment to recover and realize that potential instability. That
being said if cloud cover does break and we do realize the forecast
highs of the mid 80s tomorrow there is a good potential for severe
weather. Models in good agreement in trying to develop supercells
across eastern Kansas during the late afternoon tomorrow. Early in
the evolution of these storm all modes, large hail, damaging winds
and even an isolated tornado will be possible. As these storms move
eastward into the western CWA they will begin to form a line of
storms as which point the main threats would then become large hail
and damaging winds. This line of storms is then expected to move
eastward across the entire CWA tomorrow night.
The severe weather potential on Monday becomes even more uncertain
based on whether the environment can recover during the afternoon
hours. The set up however is similar to Sunday only with a slight
shift south and east to severe potential. the upper level low will
continue to rotate across South Dakota and northern Nebraska. A
secondary cold front will develop across the Plains states early
Monday and shift eastward into eastern Kansas by Monday evening.
Again, conditions will be favorable for severe weather with steep
mid level lapse rates, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and CAPE values
between 2500-3500J/kg. Also, of interest is models show a jet streak
moving through the area Monday evening which would aid in supercell
development with again all three mode of severe weather possible.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Monday night into Tuesday...Convection will be ongoing Monday night
across the CWA with strong to severe weather possible as discussed
during the short term. Thunderstorms will gradually shift east of
the area by Tuesday morning. The upper low will only make slow
progress eastward, with the surface cold front located from north
central to southwest Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. Another round of
thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the boundary
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Severe weather will once again be
possible, mainly in the eastern quarter of the CWA. Thereafter, the
front is expected to clear the area by Tuesday night, ending chances
for precipitation. The front will sag southward and stall near
southern Missouri into south central Kansas by Wednesday into the
end of the work week. Likewise, slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible mainly across southern sections of
the CWA through Friday, in areas closest to the frontal boundary.
Near seasonal temperatures can be expected through the period, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
An area of rain with embedded thunder was moving toward western
Missouri this morning and should arrive at all terminals by the time
the forecast becomes valid. Cloud bases are fairly high with this
area so other than a period of rain do not expect there to be much in
the way of impacts at the terminals. This rain should dissipate by
mid morning with clouds beginning to thin out by this afternoon. This
will allow for a very unstable airmass to develop across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting the stage for severe
thunderstorms at all terminals late this afternoon and this evening.
The most likely timing into STJ, MCI, and MKC looks to be between
00Z and 04Z with conditions improving after this time frame.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KEAX 190840
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CDT Sun May 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Main concern in the short term revolves around the potential for all
modes of severe weather late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
as well as the potential for a second round of severe weather on
Monday.
A broad, slightly negatively-tilted upper level trough is moving
through the eastern Rockies this morning. This trough will move out
into the northern Plains today with an upper level low developing
across South Dakota. However, a lead wave in the base of the trough
will rotate into the Central Plains by tomorrow afternoon. This will
force a stout cold front into eastern Kansas. As this wave over
takes the front this should allow for initiation during the late
afternoon across eastern Kansas. Model soundings show that when
storms initiate there will be a very moist environment to work with
as dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70. Also, there will
be steep lapses rates across the region as well as CAPE values of
2000-3000J/kg. So, the ingredients are there for severe weather
however the caveat will be if early morning convection across
central and southeastern Kansas continues to lift northeastward this
could led to increased cloud cover and may not allow the
environment to recover and realize that potential instability. That
being said if cloud cover does break and we do realize the forecast
highs of the mid 80s tomorrow there is a good potential for severe
weather. Models in good agreement in trying to develop supercells
across eastern Kansas during the late afternoon tomorrow. Early in
the evolution of these storm all modes, large hail, damaging winds
and even an isolated tornado will be possible. As these storms move
eastward into the western CWA they will begin to form a line of
storms as which point the main threats would then become large hail
and damaging winds. This line of storms is then expected to move
eastward across the entire CWA tomorrow night.
The severe weather potential on Monday becomes even more uncertain
based on whether the environment can recover during the afternoon
hours. The set up however is similar to Sunday only with a slight
shift south and east to severe potential. the upper level low will
continue to rotate across South Dakota and northern Nebraska. A
secondary cold front will develop across the Plains states early
Monday and shift eastward into eastern Kansas by Monday evening.
Again, conditions will be favorable for severe weather with steep
mid level lapse rates, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and CAPE values
between 2500-3500J/kg. Also, of interest is models show a jet streak
moving through the area Monday evening which would aid in supercell
development with again all three mode of severe weather possible.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
Monday night into Tuesday...Convection will be ongoing Monday night
across the CWA with strong to severe weather possible as discussed
during the short term. Thunderstorms will gradually shift east of
the area by Tuesday morning. The upper low will only make slow
progress eastward, with the surface cold front located from north
central to southwest Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. Another round of
thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the boundary
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Severe weather will once again be
possible, mainly in the eastern quarter of the CWA. Thereafter, the
front is expected to clear the area by Tuesday night, ending chances
for precipitation. The front will sag southward and stall near
southern Missouri into south central Kansas by Wednesday into the
end of the work week. Likewise, slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible mainly across southern sections of
the CWA through Friday, in areas closest to the frontal boundary.
Near seasonal temperatures can be expected through the period, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A strong line of thunderstorms is evident on radar moving across
northeastern Kansas. These storms are expected to move through the
terminals between 06Z-07Z and may pact winds of 30-40kts with them. Cigs
will drop to MVFR conds with vsbys reduced to 4SM in storms. After
this line moves through, stratiform thunderstorms are expected to
persist through 10Z with low end VFR conds. VFR conds are expected to
continue through the daylight hours with a bkn-ovc deck between 3-4kft.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Kansas late
tomorrow afternoon and then move eastward into the terminals around
01Z this evening. Winds will be out of the south through the early
morning hours between 10-15kts but will pick up to near 15-20kts with
gusts to 20-30kts during the day tomorrow.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73
000
FXUS63 KEAX 190505
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 AM CDT Sun May 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
Deepening upper trough over the High Plains is expected to produce
multiple rounds of severe weather across the Plains and Midwest over
the next few days, starting with a severe weather outbreak over
western and central Kansas this evening. Upper shortwave responsible
for this activity, currently near Dodge City, will track into eastern
KS and western MO late tonight. Quite a few questions remain
regarding this feature and if it will be able to spark convection
overnight this far east, especially with a significant capping
inversion in place. Latest aircraft soundings out of MCI depict a
very strong inversion of 16 degrees C around 770 hPa which is quite a
bit stronger than what models had been forecasting. This inversion
is likely to keep our area dry at least through the early evening.
However, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is progged to nose into northwest
MO between 06Z and 09Z. Convergence at the leading edge of this
feature could produce enough lift to weaken and possibly overcome
the cap and spark a complex of thunderstorms over northeast KS and
northwest MO overnight. Models are in very poor agreement with this
potential overnight activity so confidence is not high. However,
should storms develop, elevated instability is forecast to be strong
to extreme, so these storms could produce severe hail and very heavy
rainfall.
Sunday still appears active as the upper trough to the west pushes
into the eastern Plains. Model spread remains rather high with the
middle- and lower-level jet structure and timing of smaller-scale
features, which makes it somewhat difficult to pinpoint exact storm
location, timing and severity. Further complicating matters will be
any overnight convection that lingers into Sunday morning. This could
cut back on instability Sunday afternoon, and is also producing
feedback issues in the model forecasts. It still appears that if
things were to come together correctly, parts of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri could see a line of supercells capable of producing
very large hail (baseball-size or larger), damaging winds and
tornadoes. Exact tornado threat, and any potential for long-lived
strong tornadoes, will depend on the evolution of low-level wind
fields and low-level instability which are difficult to get a feel
for given the model spread. Taking a blend of the faster NAM and
slower GFS would put result in wind fields and thermal profiles
supportive of an enhanced tornado risk along the KS/MO border late
Sunday afternoon and early evening, with an even greater risk further
south toward Tulsa.
Boundary-parallel storm-relative flow is likely to cause any
supercells to gradually congeal into a line over western Missouri
Sunday evening, maintaining the potential for large hail and damaging
winds. This activity could maintain its severity as far east as
central Missouri Sunday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
Large question marks remain for the convective forecast on Monday,
given substantial uncertainties on the evolution of thunderstorm
activity Sunday afternoon and night. As mentioned in previous
discussion, there will likely be some lingering thunderstorm
activity early Monday morning as an embedded shortwave rotates
northeast of the area and the LLJ slowly veers, however it`s
possible that much of the morning and early afternoon hours will be
dry as the area is between shortwaves. Moderate to strong
instability will begin to grow ahead of an elongated surface
boundary over east central Kansas and northwestern Missouri during
the afternoon hours. By the mid-late afternoon hours a secondary
shortwave and mid-level jet streak will rotate into the area,
reigniting convection over NE OK, SE KS and into areas of west
central MO. Initially discrete in nature, fairly rapid transition
towards a linear convective mode is anticipated further NE given
unidirectional shear. Substantial mid-level CAPE values will
support very large hail, with dry air intrusion indicating the
potential for a quick transition to a strong wind producing MCS as
this system moves across the area.
Tuesday-Saturday:
Upper level troughing will swing through the Midwest by Tuesday
bringing cooler temperatures and dry conditions into Thursday. A
building mid-level ridge will gradually slide eastward by the end of
the week and next weekend. Moisture will gradually return to the
Western Plains bringing renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms to portion of Kansas by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A strong line of thunderstorms is evident on radar moving across
northeastern Kansas. These storms are expected to move through the
terminals between 06Z-07Z and may pact winds of 30-40kts with them. Cigs
will drop to MVFR conds with vsbys reduced to 4SM in storms. After
this line moves through, stratiform thunderstorms are expected to
persist through 10Z with low end VFR conds. VFR conds are expected to
continue through the daylight hours with a bkn-ovc deck between 3-4kft.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Kansas late
tomorrow afternoon and then move eastward into the terminals around
01Z this evening. Winds will be out of the south through the early
morning hours between 10-15kts but will pick up to near 15-20kts with
gusts to 20-30kts during the day tomorrow.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...73
000
FXUS63 KEAX 190402
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1102 PM CDT Sat May 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1102 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
Radar across eastern Kansas depicts a developing MCS...and this is
expected to be maintained and even enhanced by a 30-40kt southerly
LLJ through late tonight and into the overnight hours. Steep mid
level lapse rates as well CAPE values between 3500-4500J/kg should
help to sustain these storms as they move northeastward into extreme
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. A tornado watch has been issued
for eastern Kansas and western Missouri through 09Z however the main
threat with this activity will be damaging winds. An isolated tornado
and marginally severe hail can not be ruled out however.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
Deepening upper trough over the High Plains is expected to produce
multiple rounds of severe weather across the Plains and Midwest over
the next few days, starting with a severe weather outbreak over
western and central Kansas this evening. Upper shortwave responsible
for this activity, currently near Dodge City, will track into eastern
KS and western MO late tonight. Quite a few questions remain
regarding this feature and if it will be able to spark convection
overnight this far east, especially with a significant capping
inversion in place. Latest aircraft soundings out of MCI depict a
very strong inversion of 16 degrees C around 770 hPa which is quite a
bit stronger than what models had been forecasting. This inversion
is likely to keep our area dry at least through the early evening.
However, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is progged to nose into northwest
MO between 06Z and 09Z. Convergence at the leading edge of this
feature could produce enough lift to weaken and possibly overcome
the cap and spark a complex of thunderstorms over northeast KS and
northwest MO overnight. Models are in very poor agreement with this
potential overnight activity so confidence is not high. However,
should storms develop, elevated instability is forecast to be strong
to extreme, so these storms could produce severe hail and very heavy
rainfall.
Sunday still appears active as the upper trough to the west pushes
into the eastern Plains. Model spread remains rather high with the
middle- and lower-level jet structure and timing of smaller-scale
features, which makes it somewhat difficult to pinpoint exact storm
location, timing and severity. Further complicating matters will be
any overnight convection that lingers into Sunday morning. This could
cut back on instability Sunday afternoon, and is also producing
feedback issues in the model forecasts. It still appears that if
things were to come together correctly, parts of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri could see a line of supercells capable of producing
very large hail (baseball-size or larger), damaging winds and
tornadoes. Exact tornado threat, and any potential for long-lived
strong tornadoes, will depend on the evolution of low-level wind
fields and low-level instability which are difficult to get a feel
for given the model spread. Taking a blend of the faster NAM and
slower GFS would put result in wind fields and thermal profiles
supportive of an enhanced tornado risk along the KS/MO border late
Sunday afternoon and early evening, with an even greater risk further
south toward Tulsa.
Boundary-parallel storm-relative flow is likely to cause any
supercells to gradually congeal into a line over western Missouri
Sunday evening, maintaining the potential for large hail and damaging
winds. This activity could maintain its severity as far east as
central Missouri Sunday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
Large question marks remain for the convective forecast on Monday,
given substantial uncertainties on the evolution of thunderstorm
activity Sunday afternoon and night. As mentioned in previous
discussion, there will likely be some lingering thunderstorm
activity early Monday morning as an embedded shortwave rotates
northeast of the area and the LLJ slowly veers, however it`s
possible that much of the morning and early afternoon hours will be
dry as the area is between shortwaves. Moderate to strong
instability will begin to grow ahead of an elongated surface
boundary over east central Kansas and northwestern Missouri during
the afternoon hours. By the mid-late afternoon hours a secondary
shortwave and mid-level jet streak will rotate into the area,
reigniting convection over NE OK, SE KS and into areas of west
central MO. Initially discrete in nature, fairly rapid transition
towards a linear convective mode is anticipated further NE given
unidirectional shear. Substantial mid-level CAPE values will
support very large hail, with dry air intrusion indicating the
potential for a quick transition to a strong wind producing MCS as
this system moves across the area.
Tuesday-Saturday:
Upper level troughing will swing through the Midwest by Tuesday
bringing cooler temperatures and dry conditions into Thursday. A
building mid-level ridge will gradually slide eastward by the end of
the week and next weekend. Moisture will gradually return to the
Western Plains bringing renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms to portion of Kansas by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
HRRR which has been handling ongoing convection across central and
western Kansas very well continues to move thunderstorms eastward
into western Missouri around 06Z-07Z. So have VCTS at 06Z at the
terminal sites with a tempo group between 07Z-09Z for light
thunderstorms. Cigs should remain VFR with the potential for some
reduced vsbys in thunderstorms down to 5SM. Otherwise expect bkn-ovc
deck between 3-4kft through the remainder of the period. There is the
potential for thunderstorms very late in the TAF period but not
enough confidence on timing to include at this point as storms may
occur right around 00Z Monday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...73
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...73
000
FXUS63 KEAX 182327
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Sat May 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
Deepening upper trough over the High Plains is expected to produce
multiple rounds of severe weather across the Plains and Midwest over
the next few days, starting with a severe weather outbreak over
western and central Kansas this evening. Upper shortwave responsible
for this activity, currently near Dodge City, will track into eastern
KS and western MO late tonight. Quite a few questions remain
regarding this feature and if it will be able to spark convection
overnight this far east, especially with a significant capping
inversion in place. Latest aircraft soundings out of MCI depict a
very strong inversion of 16 degrees C around 770 hPa which is quite a
bit stronger than what models had been forecasting. This inversion
is likely to keep our area dry at least through the early evening.
However, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is progged to nose into northwest
MO between 06Z and 09Z. Convergence at the leading edge of this
feature could produce enough lift to weaken and possibly overcome
the cap and spark a complex of thunderstorms over northeast KS and
northwest MO overnight. Models are in very poor agreement with this
potential overnight activity so confidence is not high. However,
should storms develop, elevated instability is forecast to be strong
to extreme, so these storms could produce severe hail and very heavy
rainfall.
Sunday still appears active as the upper trough to the west pushes
into the eastern Plains. Model spread remains rather high with the
middle- and lower-level jet structure and timing of smaller-scale
features, which makes it somewhat difficult to pinpoint exact storm
location, timing and severity. Further complicating matters will be
any overnight convection that lingers into Sunday morning. This could
cut back on instability Sunday afternoon, and is also producing
feedback issues in the model forecasts. It still appears that if
things were to come together correctly, parts of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri could see a line of supercells capable of producing
very large hail (baseball-size or larger), damaging winds and
tornadoes. Exact tornado threat, and any potential for long-lived
strong tornadoes, will depend on the evolution of low-level wind
fields and low-level instability which are difficult to get a feel
for given the model spread. Taking a blend of the faster NAM and
slower GFS would put result in wind fields and thermal profiles
supportive of an enhanced tornado risk along the KS/MO border late
Sunday afternoon and early evening, with an even greater risk further
south toward Tulsa.
Boundary-parallel storm-relative flow is likely to cause any
supercells to gradually congeal into a line over western Missouri
Sunday evening, maintaining the potential for large hail and damaging
winds. This activity could maintain its severity as far east as
central Missouri Sunday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
Large question marks remain for the convective forecast on Monday,
given substantial uncertainties on the evolution of thunderstorm
activity Sunday afternoon and night. As mentioned in previous
discussion, there will likely be some lingering thunderstorm
activity early Monday morning as an embedded shortwave rotates
northeast of the area and the LLJ slowly veers, however it`s
possible that much of the morning and early afternoon hours will be
dry as the area is between shortwaves. Moderate to strong
instability will begin to grow ahead of an elongated surface
boundary over east central Kansas and northwestern Missouri during
the afternoon hours. By the mid-late afternoon hours a secondary
shortwave and mid-level jet streak will rotate into the area,
reigniting convection over NE OK, SE KS and into areas of west
central MO. Initially discrete in nature, fairly rapid transition
towards a linear convective mode is anticipated further NE given
unidirectional shear. Substantial mid-level CAPE values will
support very large hail, with dry air intrusion indicating the
potential for a quick transition to a strong wind producing MCS as
this system moves across the area.
Tuesday-Saturday:
Upper level troughing will swing through the Midwest by Tuesday
bringing cooler temperatures and dry conditions into Thursday. A
building mid-level ridge will gradually slide eastward by the end of
the week and next weekend. Moisture will gradually return to the
Western Plains bringing renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms to portion of Kansas by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
HRRR which has been handling ongoing convection across central and
western Kansas very well continues to move thunderstorms eastward
into western Missouri around 06Z-07Z. So have VCTS at 06Z at the
terminal sites with a tempo group between 07Z-09Z for light
thunderstorms. Cigs should remain VFR with the potential for some
reduced vsbys in thunderstorms down to 5SM. Otherwise expect bkn-ovc
deck between 3-4kft through the remainder of the period. There is the
potential for thunderstorms very late in the TAF period but not
enough confidence on timing to include at this point as storms may
occur right around 00Z Monday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...73
|
