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000
FXUS63 KEAX 281121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northwest flow will continue to dominate this week`s weather across
the forecast area, resulting in below normal temperatures and mainly
dry conditions through the foreseeable future. A shortwave trough
will bring showers and storms to portions of southern Kansas, far
southwest Missouri, and much of Oklahoma on Wednesday, but is
expected to remain south of the CWA. Another weak shortwave trough
could brush northern Missouri on Friday night or early Saturday, but
any precipitation associated with it should be light and focused
mainly northeast of the area. High temperatures will be mainly in
the lower to mid 80s through the period, with lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

Most models indicate that the persistent upper low over the Great
Lakes region will translate northeastward and allow ridging to build
eastward across the Plains by next Monday, but the strength of said
ridge may be moderated by another Pacific trough. For now, have
stuck with continued below normal temperatures even through the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Isolated to scattered cumulus with bases around 3-4 kft will develop
by late morning, and should linger through sunset. Winds will remain
out of the north northwest, at speeds generally around or less than
10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 281121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northwest flow will continue to dominate this week`s weather across
the forecast area, resulting in below normal temperatures and mainly
dry conditions through the foreseeable future. A shortwave trough
will bring showers and storms to portions of southern Kansas, far
southwest Missouri, and much of Oklahoma on Wednesday, but is
expected to remain south of the CWA. Another weak shortwave trough
could brush northern Missouri on Friday night or early Saturday, but
any precipitation associated with it should be light and focused
mainly northeast of the area. High temperatures will be mainly in
the lower to mid 80s through the period, with lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

Most models indicate that the persistent upper low over the Great
Lakes region will translate northeastward and allow ridging to build
eastward across the Plains by next Monday, but the strength of said
ridge may be moderated by another Pacific trough. For now, have
stuck with continued below normal temperatures even through the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Isolated to scattered cumulus with bases around 3-4 kft will develop
by late morning, and should linger through sunset. Winds will remain
out of the north northwest, at speeds generally around or less than
10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280821
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northwest flow will continue to dominate this week`s weather across
the forecast area, resulting in below normal temperatures and mainly
dry conditions through the foreseeable future. A shortwave trough
will bring showers and storms to portions of southern Kansas, far
southwest Missouri, and much of Oklahoma on Wednesday, but is
expected to remain south of the CWA. Another weak shortwave trough
could brush northern Missouri on Friday night or early Saturday, but
any precipitation associated with it should be light and focused
mainly northeast of the area. High temperatures will be mainly in
the lower to mid 80s through the period, with lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

Most models indicate that the persistent upper low over the Great
Lakes region will translate northeastward and allow ridging to build
eastward across the Plains by next Monday, but the strength of said
ridge may be moderated by another Pacific trough. For now, have
stuck with continued below normal temperatures even through the
beginning of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Some light, very patchy fog may develop near the KSTJ
terminal before sunrise, but otherwise no visibility restrictions
are expected. Winds will remain out of the north, generally at
speeds around or less than 10 kts through Monday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280455
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Although we are heading into the dog days of summer...when the area
would typically be in the grips of hot summer temperatures...this
forecast is void of that. Expect below normal temperatures through
the duration of his forecast with mainly just diurnal scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

Much more pleasant conditions than in the past few days are
occurring across the CWA this afternoon. Strong northwest winds are
bringing in slightly below average temperatures this afternoon with
much less humid conditions as dewpoints have fallen into the upper
50s. Cool surface high pressure, currently residing in the southern
Canadian Plains, will sink southward through the Plains tonight
impinging on the local area by tomorrow morning and signaling the
onset of cooler conditions.

Several areas of cool surface high pressure coupled with continued
northwest flow aloft through the next week will keep temperatures
across the area 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s through the next 7 days. Precipitation
chances will mainly reside in the extended period
(Wednesday-Saturday) as models advertise several weak impulses
moving through the area on northwest flow. Any precipitation that
does fall will be diurnally driven and light in nature as high
pressure at the surface may keep conditions dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Some light, very patchy fog may develop near the KSTJ
terminal before sunrise, but otherwise no visibility restrictions
are expected. Winds will remain out of the north, generally at
speeds around or less than 10 kts through Monday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280455
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Although we are heading into the dog days of summer...when the area
would typically be in the grips of hot summer temperatures...this
forecast is void of that. Expect below normal temperatures through
the duration of his forecast with mainly just diurnal scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

Much more pleasant conditions than in the past few days are
occurring across the CWA this afternoon. Strong northwest winds are
bringing in slightly below average temperatures this afternoon with
much less humid conditions as dewpoints have fallen into the upper
50s. Cool surface high pressure, currently residing in the southern
Canadian Plains, will sink southward through the Plains tonight
impinging on the local area by tomorrow morning and signaling the
onset of cooler conditions.

Several areas of cool surface high pressure coupled with continued
northwest flow aloft through the next week will keep temperatures
across the area 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s through the next 7 days. Precipitation
chances will mainly reside in the extended period
(Wednesday-Saturday) as models advertise several weak impulses
moving through the area on northwest flow. Any precipitation that
does fall will be diurnally driven and light in nature as high
pressure at the surface may keep conditions dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Some light, very patchy fog may develop near the KSTJ
terminal before sunrise, but otherwise no visibility restrictions
are expected. Winds will remain out of the north, generally at
speeds around or less than 10 kts through Monday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Although we are heading into the dog days of summer...when the area
would typically be in the grips of hot summer temperatures...this
forecast is void of that. Expect below normal temperatures through
the duration of his forecast with mainly just diurnal scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

Much more pleasant conditions than in the past few days are
occurring across the CWA this afternoon. Strong northwest winds are
bringing in slightly below average temperatures this afternoon with
much less humid conditions as dewpoints have fallen into the upper
50s. Cool surface high pressure, currently residing in the southern
Canadian Plains, will sink southward through the Plains tonight
impinging on the local area by tomorrow morning and signaling the
onset of cooler conditions.

Several areas of cool surface high pressure coupled with continued
northwest flow aloft through the next week will keep temperatures
across the area 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s through the next 7 days. Precipitation
chances will mainly reside in the extended period
(Wednesday-Saturday) as models advertise several weak impulses
moving through the area on northwest flow. Any precipitation that
does fall will be diurnally driven and light in nature as high
pressure at the surface may keep conditions dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions are expect for much of the next 24 hours. Only issues
might be a little light haze Monday morning, though confidence in
this is rather low owing to the dry air mass advecting in. Otherwise,
expect a light north wind to prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Although we are heading into the dog days of summer...when the area
would typically be in the grips of hot summer temperatures...this
forecast is void of that. Expect below normal temperatures through
the duration of his forecast with mainly just diurnal scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

Much more pleasant conditions than in the past few days are
occurring across the CWA this afternoon. Strong northwest winds are
bringing in slightly below average temperatures this afternoon with
much less humid conditions as dewpoints have fallen into the upper
50s. Cool surface high pressure, currently residing in the southern
Canadian Plains, will sink southward through the Plains tonight
impinging on the local area by tomorrow morning and signaling the
onset of cooler conditions.

Several areas of cool surface high pressure coupled with continued
northwest flow aloft through the next week will keep temperatures
across the area 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s through the next 7 days. Precipitation
chances will mainly reside in the extended period
(Wednesday-Saturday) as models advertise several weak impulses
moving through the area on northwest flow. Any precipitation that
does fall will be diurnally driven and light in nature as high
pressure at the surface may keep conditions dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions are expect for much of the next 24 hours. Only issues
might be a little light haze Monday morning, though confidence in
this is rather low owing to the dry air mass advecting in. Otherwise,
expect a light north wind to prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271932
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
232 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Although we are heading into the dog days of summer...when the area
would typically be in the grips of hot summer temperatures...this
forecast is void of that. Expect below normal temperatures through
the duration of his forecast with mainly just diurnal scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

Much more pleasant conditions than in the past few days are
occurring across the CWA this afternoon. Strong northwest winds are
bringing in slightly below average temperatures this afternoon with
much less humid conditions as dewpoints have fallen into the upper
50s. Cool surface high pressure, currently residing in the southern
Canadian Plains, will sink southward through the Plains tonight
impinging on the local area by tomorrow morning and signaling the
onset of cooler conditions.

Several areas of cool surface high pressure coupled with continued
northwest flow aloft through the next week will keep temperatures
across the area 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s through the next 7 days. Precipitation
chances will mainly reside in the extended period
(Wednesday-Saturday) as models advertise several weak impulses
moving through the area on northwest flow. Any precipitation that
does fall will be diurnally driven and light in nature as high
pressure at the surface may keep conditions dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
this afternoon becmg clr skies tonight. Winds will be out of the NNW
today btn 10-15kts with ocnl gusts around 20kts dmshg to around 5kts
out of the N this evening. Tomorrow morning sct cu will develop
around 3-4kft with winds increasing to about 10kts while remaining
out of the north.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271932
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
232 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Although we are heading into the dog days of summer...when the area
would typically be in the grips of hot summer temperatures...this
forecast is void of that. Expect below normal temperatures through
the duration of his forecast with mainly just diurnal scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

Much more pleasant conditions than in the past few days are
occurring across the CWA this afternoon. Strong northwest winds are
bringing in slightly below average temperatures this afternoon with
much less humid conditions as dewpoints have fallen into the upper
50s. Cool surface high pressure, currently residing in the southern
Canadian Plains, will sink southward through the Plains tonight
impinging on the local area by tomorrow morning and signaling the
onset of cooler conditions.

Several areas of cool surface high pressure coupled with continued
northwest flow aloft through the next week will keep temperatures
across the area 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s through the next 7 days. Precipitation
chances will mainly reside in the extended period
(Wednesday-Saturday) as models advertise several weak impulses
moving through the area on northwest flow. Any precipitation that
does fall will be diurnally driven and light in nature as high
pressure at the surface may keep conditions dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
this afternoon becmg clr skies tonight. Winds will be out of the NNW
today btn 10-15kts with ocnl gusts around 20kts dmshg to around 5kts
out of the N this evening. Tomorrow morning sct cu will develop
around 3-4kft with winds increasing to about 10kts while remaining
out of the north.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271713
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

As of 0830z a few thunderstorms have formed across central Kansas,
apparently along a surface convergence zone associated with the cold
front, which is making progress southward. Helping out with this
convective activity is a strong shortwave trough currently over
northern Minnesota. While the main ascent associated with that
trough will remain well north, there could be a very subtle
influence either with the parent trough or with a piece of energy
rotating around the base of the parent trough. Either way, short
range convective allowing models do not appear to be picking up on
the eastern most convection just south of KMHK, so it`s only
slightly uncertain whether or not a few storms could form in western
Missouri or far eastern Kansas along that convergence zone. That
being said, looking at forecast soundings in and around that
boundary low level lapse rates are very weak as the 900 mb to 700 mb
layer appears to be quite warm. This low level warm air will
mitigate any convective activity. As a result of the feeling that
convection will have a hard time getting going along with the
uncertainty of how the short range models are handling the ongoing
convection have kept the forecast dry, but will continue to watch IR
imagery to see if anything appears to want to go up over the area.

By sunrise on Sunday morning the surface ridge currently off to the
northwest of the forecast area will slide its way into the forecast
area bringing with it cooler and drier air. The initial boundary,
once it slides into the area will bring only a marginal amount of
cool/dry air, however further to the northwest, deeper into the
ridge surface conditions in the 50s and 60s reside with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s. The initial front may only bring a marginal amount
of relief to the area for Sunday, as highs will still likely be in
the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few areas south of
Interstate 70 reaching 90+ degrees. However, once the leading edge
of the surface ridge moves through the area the minimal chances for
rain should become nil.

For the rest of the week, expect temperatures to be rather pleasant,
especially considering the seasonal normals of upper 80s with high
humidity. Expect temperatures through the rest of the week to remain
in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the influence from the ridge
remains over the area. As the ridge sets in through the week, it
should remain centered over the area, meaning just to the west
southerly return flow will bring moisture back to areas west of the
forecast area, namely across Oklahoma and central/western Kansas. It
appears that rain should be persistent through at least the middle
part of the week for areas west of here. The main threat for rain
will remain west, but part of our far western zones, namely far
eastern Kansas or far west/southwest Missouri could see some of
these rain showers through the week. Have gone with some low end
Chance PoPs for that time period, but confidence is low in any
appreciable rain falling across our forecast area through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
this afternoon becmg clr skies tonight. Winds will be out of the NNW
today btn 10-15kts with ocnl gusts around 20kts dmshg to around 5kts
out of the N this evening. Tomorrow morning sct cu will develop
around 3-4kft with winds increasing to about 10kts while remaining
out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271713
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

As of 0830z a few thunderstorms have formed across central Kansas,
apparently along a surface convergence zone associated with the cold
front, which is making progress southward. Helping out with this
convective activity is a strong shortwave trough currently over
northern Minnesota. While the main ascent associated with that
trough will remain well north, there could be a very subtle
influence either with the parent trough or with a piece of energy
rotating around the base of the parent trough. Either way, short
range convective allowing models do not appear to be picking up on
the eastern most convection just south of KMHK, so it`s only
slightly uncertain whether or not a few storms could form in western
Missouri or far eastern Kansas along that convergence zone. That
being said, looking at forecast soundings in and around that
boundary low level lapse rates are very weak as the 900 mb to 700 mb
layer appears to be quite warm. This low level warm air will
mitigate any convective activity. As a result of the feeling that
convection will have a hard time getting going along with the
uncertainty of how the short range models are handling the ongoing
convection have kept the forecast dry, but will continue to watch IR
imagery to see if anything appears to want to go up over the area.

By sunrise on Sunday morning the surface ridge currently off to the
northwest of the forecast area will slide its way into the forecast
area bringing with it cooler and drier air. The initial boundary,
once it slides into the area will bring only a marginal amount of
cool/dry air, however further to the northwest, deeper into the
ridge surface conditions in the 50s and 60s reside with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s. The initial front may only bring a marginal amount
of relief to the area for Sunday, as highs will still likely be in
the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few areas south of
Interstate 70 reaching 90+ degrees. However, once the leading edge
of the surface ridge moves through the area the minimal chances for
rain should become nil.

For the rest of the week, expect temperatures to be rather pleasant,
especially considering the seasonal normals of upper 80s with high
humidity. Expect temperatures through the rest of the week to remain
in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the influence from the ridge
remains over the area. As the ridge sets in through the week, it
should remain centered over the area, meaning just to the west
southerly return flow will bring moisture back to areas west of the
forecast area, namely across Oklahoma and central/western Kansas. It
appears that rain should be persistent through at least the middle
part of the week for areas west of here. The main threat for rain
will remain west, but part of our far western zones, namely far
eastern Kansas or far west/southwest Missouri could see some of
these rain showers through the week. Have gone with some low end
Chance PoPs for that time period, but confidence is low in any
appreciable rain falling across our forecast area through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
this afternoon becmg clr skies tonight. Winds will be out of the NNW
today btn 10-15kts with ocnl gusts around 20kts dmshg to around 5kts
out of the N this evening. Tomorrow morning sct cu will develop
around 3-4kft with winds increasing to about 10kts while remaining
out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

As of 0830z a few thunderstorms have formed across central Kansas,
apparently along a surface convergence zone associated with the cold
front, which is making progress southward. Helping out with this
convective activity is a strong shortwave trough currently over
northern Minnesota. While the main ascent associated with that
trough will remain well north, there could be a very subtle
influence either with the parent trough or with a piece of energy
rotating around the base of the parent trough. Either way, short
range convective allowing models do not appear to be picking up on
the eastern most convection just south of KMHK, so it`s only
slightly uncertain whether or not a few storms could form in western
Missouri or far eastern Kansas along that convergence zone. That
being said, looking at forecast soundings in and around that
boundary low level lapse rates are very weak as the 900 mb to 700 mb
layer appears to be quite warm. This low level warm air will
mitigate any convective activity. As a result of the feeling that
convection will have a hard time getting going along with the
uncertainty of how the short range models are handling the ongoing
convection have kept the forecast dry, but will continue to watch IR
imagery to see if anything appears to want to go up over the area.

By sunrise on Sunday morning the surface ridge currently off to the
northwest of the forecast area will slide its way into the forecast
area bringing with it cooler and drier air. The initial boundary,
once it slides into the area will bring only a marginal amount of
cool/dry air, however further to the northwest, deeper into the
ridge surface conditions in the 50s and 60s reside with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s. The initial front may only bring a marginal amount
of relief to the area for Sunday, as highs will still likely be in
the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few areas south of
Interstate 70 reaching 90+ degrees. However, once the leading edge
of the surface ridge moves through the area the minimal chances for
rain should become nil.

For the rest of the week, expect temperatures to be rather pleasant,
especially considering the seasonal normals of upper 80s with high
humidity. Expect temperatures through the rest of the week to remain
in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the influence from the ridge
remains over the area. As the ridge sets in through the week, it
should remain centered over the area, meaning just to the west
southerly return flow will bring moisture back to areas west of the
forecast area, namely across Oklahoma and central/western Kansas. It
appears that rain should be persistent through at least the middle
part of the week for areas west of here. The main threat for rain
will remain west, but part of our far western zones, namely far
eastern Kansas or far west/southwest Missouri could see some of
these rain showers through the week. Have gone with some low end
Chance PoPs for that time period, but confidence is low in any
appreciable rain falling across our forecast area through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Patchy fog is expected around the terminals through 14z. KSTJ has
demonstrated several hours of off and on MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions,
so will continue to handle that with TEMPO group through 14z. KMCI
and KMKC likely won`t see any VSBY restrictions, so VFR will prevail.
Light northerly winds will pick up a touch later this afternoon with
12 kt prevailing winds. A few gusts approaching 20 kts will be
possible during peak heating later this afternoon. Winds should taper
off around sunset, with VFR conditions continuing at all sites
through the entire forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

As of 0830z a few thunderstorms have formed across central Kansas,
apparently along a surface convergence zone associated with the cold
front, which is making progress southward. Helping out with this
convective activity is a strong shortwave trough currently over
northern Minnesota. While the main ascent associated with that
trough will remain well north, there could be a very subtle
influence either with the parent trough or with a piece of energy
rotating around the base of the parent trough. Either way, short
range convective allowing models do not appear to be picking up on
the eastern most convection just south of KMHK, so it`s only
slightly uncertain whether or not a few storms could form in western
Missouri or far eastern Kansas along that convergence zone. That
being said, looking at forecast soundings in and around that
boundary low level lapse rates are very weak as the 900 mb to 700 mb
layer appears to be quite warm. This low level warm air will
mitigate any convective activity. As a result of the feeling that
convection will have a hard time getting going along with the
uncertainty of how the short range models are handling the ongoing
convection have kept the forecast dry, but will continue to watch IR
imagery to see if anything appears to want to go up over the area.

By sunrise on Sunday morning the surface ridge currently off to the
northwest of the forecast area will slide its way into the forecast
area bringing with it cooler and drier air. The initial boundary,
once it slides into the area will bring only a marginal amount of
cool/dry air, however further to the northwest, deeper into the
ridge surface conditions in the 50s and 60s reside with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s. The initial front may only bring a marginal amount
of relief to the area for Sunday, as highs will still likely be in
the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few areas south of
Interstate 70 reaching 90+ degrees. However, once the leading edge
of the surface ridge moves through the area the minimal chances for
rain should become nil.

For the rest of the week, expect temperatures to be rather pleasant,
especially considering the seasonal normals of upper 80s with high
humidity. Expect temperatures through the rest of the week to remain
in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the influence from the ridge
remains over the area. As the ridge sets in through the week, it
should remain centered over the area, meaning just to the west
southerly return flow will bring moisture back to areas west of the
forecast area, namely across Oklahoma and central/western Kansas. It
appears that rain should be persistent through at least the middle
part of the week for areas west of here. The main threat for rain
will remain west, but part of our far western zones, namely far
eastern Kansas or far west/southwest Missouri could see some of
these rain showers through the week. Have gone with some low end
Chance PoPs for that time period, but confidence is low in any
appreciable rain falling across our forecast area through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Patchy fog is expected around the terminals through 14z. KSTJ has
demonstrated several hours of off and on MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions,
so will continue to handle that with TEMPO group through 14z. KMCI
and KMKC likely won`t see any VSBY restrictions, so VFR will prevail.
Light northerly winds will pick up a touch later this afternoon with
12 kt prevailing winds. A few gusts approaching 20 kts will be
possible during peak heating later this afternoon. Winds should taper
off around sunset, with VFR conditions continuing at all sites
through the entire forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270853
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

As of 0830z a few thunderstorms have formed across central Kansas,
apparently along a surface convergence zone associated with the cold
front, which is making progress southward. Helping out with this
convective activity is a strong shortwave trough currently over
northern Minnesota. While the main ascent associated with that
trough will remain well north, there could be a very subtle
influence either with the parent trough or with a piece of energy
rotating around the base of the parent trough. Either way, short
range convective allowing models do not appear to be picking up on
the eastern most convection just south of KMHK, so it`s only
slightly uncertain whether or not a few storms could form in western
Missouri or far eastern Kansas along that convergence zone. That
being said, looking at forecast soundings in and around that
boundary low level lapse rates are very weak as the 900 mb to 700 mb
layer appears to be quite warm. This low level warm air will
mitigate any convective activity. As a result of the feeling that
convection will have a hard time getting going along with the
uncertainty of how the short range models are handling the ongoing
convection have kept the forecast dry, but will continue to watch IR
imagery to see if anything appears to want to go up over the area.

By sunrise on Sunday morning the surface ridge currently off to the
northwest of the forecast area will slide its way into the forecast
area bringing with it cooler and drier air. The initial boundary,
once it slides into the area will bring only a marginal amount of
cool/dry air, however further to the northwest, deeper into the
ridge surface conditions in the 50s and 60s reside with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s. The initial front may only bring a marginal amount
of relief to the area for Sunday, as highs will still likely be in
the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few areas south of
Interstate 70 reaching 90+ degrees. However, once the leading edge
of the surface ridge moves through the area the minimal chances for
rain should become nil.

For the rest of the week, expect temperatures to be rather pleasant,
especially considering the seasonal normals of upper 80s with high
humidity. Expect temperatures through the rest of the week to remain
in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the influence from the ridge
remains over the area. As the ridge sets in through the week, it
should remain centered over the area, meaning just to the west
southerly return flow will bring moisture back to areas west of the
forecast area, namely across Oklahoma and central/western Kansas. It
appears that rain should be persistent through at least the middle
part of the week for areas west of here. The main threat for rain
will remain west, but part of our far western zones, namely far
eastern Kansas or far west/southwest Missouri could see some of
these rain showers through the week. Have gone with some low end
Chance PoPs for that time period, but confidence is low in any
appreciable rain falling across our forecast area through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

First of two frontal boundaries to sag south across the region
overnight. The first will result in a wind shift to the
northwest...while the second will result in the influx of much drier
air after 12z. In between these to boundaries...moist low-level
conditions will support developing MVFR VSBYs at STJ after 10z.
Conditions should quickly improve after 12z with northwest winds
increasing to 10-15 kts during the daylight hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270853
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

As of 0830z a few thunderstorms have formed across central Kansas,
apparently along a surface convergence zone associated with the cold
front, which is making progress southward. Helping out with this
convective activity is a strong shortwave trough currently over
northern Minnesota. While the main ascent associated with that
trough will remain well north, there could be a very subtle
influence either with the parent trough or with a piece of energy
rotating around the base of the parent trough. Either way, short
range convective allowing models do not appear to be picking up on
the eastern most convection just south of KMHK, so it`s only
slightly uncertain whether or not a few storms could form in western
Missouri or far eastern Kansas along that convergence zone. That
being said, looking at forecast soundings in and around that
boundary low level lapse rates are very weak as the 900 mb to 700 mb
layer appears to be quite warm. This low level warm air will
mitigate any convective activity. As a result of the feeling that
convection will have a hard time getting going along with the
uncertainty of how the short range models are handling the ongoing
convection have kept the forecast dry, but will continue to watch IR
imagery to see if anything appears to want to go up over the area.

By sunrise on Sunday morning the surface ridge currently off to the
northwest of the forecast area will slide its way into the forecast
area bringing with it cooler and drier air. The initial boundary,
once it slides into the area will bring only a marginal amount of
cool/dry air, however further to the northwest, deeper into the
ridge surface conditions in the 50s and 60s reside with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s. The initial front may only bring a marginal amount
of relief to the area for Sunday, as highs will still likely be in
the middle to upper 80s, with perhaps a few areas south of
Interstate 70 reaching 90+ degrees. However, once the leading edge
of the surface ridge moves through the area the minimal chances for
rain should become nil.

For the rest of the week, expect temperatures to be rather pleasant,
especially considering the seasonal normals of upper 80s with high
humidity. Expect temperatures through the rest of the week to remain
in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the influence from the ridge
remains over the area. As the ridge sets in through the week, it
should remain centered over the area, meaning just to the west
southerly return flow will bring moisture back to areas west of the
forecast area, namely across Oklahoma and central/western Kansas. It
appears that rain should be persistent through at least the middle
part of the week for areas west of here. The main threat for rain
will remain west, but part of our far western zones, namely far
eastern Kansas or far west/southwest Missouri could see some of
these rain showers through the week. Have gone with some low end
Chance PoPs for that time period, but confidence is low in any
appreciable rain falling across our forecast area through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

First of two frontal boundaries to sag south across the region
overnight. The first will result in a wind shift to the
northwest...while the second will result in the influx of much drier
air after 12z. In between these to boundaries...moist low-level
conditions will support developing MVFR VSBYs at STJ after 10z.
Conditions should quickly improve after 12z with northwest winds
increasing to 10-15 kts during the daylight hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270532
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Quick update this evening to account for latest trends. Have removed
pops through the overnight period as no precip is occurring across
the CWA. In fact...latest arriving 00z NAM maintains a dry fcst despite
the expected passage of a cold front overnight. Main issue continues
to be warm air aloft which is providing modest capping aloft as seen
on latest AMDAR soundings from MCI. Moreover...large scale forcing
for ascent remains very weak as region remains in an areas of NVA
following this afternoon/s MCV passage. In general...could no longer
justify slgt chc-chc pops any longer given the current trends and
fcst has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main concern for the near term is if we see any additional
convection, where it may be and whether we see any severe
convection.

The MCV moving over the eastern portions of the forecast area has
blossomed new showers and storms east of the forecast area. While
there is modest instability for this area to work with, shear
remains very weak. Subsidence on the immediate tail end of the MCV
should inhibit additional convection temporarily. Focus then shifts
to storms in eastern Nebraska, whether they will survive further
south and if additional convection can develop in between the back
edge of the MCV and the Nebraska convection. There are a few fairly
large negatives. The first and what may inhibit storms all
together, is very warm air aloft. The 18Z TOP, OAX and SGF soundings
all showed, to some degree, a strong cap from very warm air aloft.
The second is relatively weak shear further south. This factor
though will become less of an issue as stronger winds aloft build
south and eastward ward and enhance shear further to the south and
east this evening.

Short-term higher resolution models favor very limited or even dry
conditions this evening and tonight. And even the coarser synoptic
scale models don`t indicate much precipitation moving into or
developing within the forecast area. It seems more likely that the
warm air aloft will inhibit convection despite there being robust
instability and increasing shear across northern Missouri. At this
time the risk of severe weather is very conditional on whether
enough forcing and/or cooling of air aloft can overcome the cap. So
for now, have maintained chance PoPs across mainly the northeastern
third of the forecast area for the evening hours.

The cold front will move through the area tonight and usher in
cooler and drier air to the region. There may be some showers/storms
develop along the front but as previously mentioned, shear decreases
further south and there will remain a nose of warm air aloft likely
inhibiting development. The cooler and drier air moving in will
result in highs in the 80s for both Sunday and Monday with dewpoints
in the 50s.

Regarding the heat advisory, temperatures will have the potential to
rebound quickly and limited mixing has kept dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s. It seems the greatest potential for areas to see at least a
few hours of excessive heat will Miami and Cass southward. For now
will keep the advisory going until we`re past peak heating and the
potential for a quick spike into the mid 90s has passed.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Tuesday through Saturday: Models continue to advertise a highly
amplified upper trough to reside over the eastern CONUS through much
of next week. This will result in unseasonably cool weather to
persist during the extended period. Maximum readings each afternoon
are expected to only warm into the lower 80s, with low temperatures
in the lower 60s. A dry atmosphere is expected to remain in place
with relative humidity below 20 percent through the H7-H4 layer.
Continued a slight chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday, but
overall probabilities remain low for any measurable rainfall during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

First of two frontal boundaries to sag south across the region
overnight. The first will result in a wind shift to the
northwest...while the second will result in the influx of much drier
air after 12z. In between these to boundaries...moist low-level
conditions will support developing MVFR VSBYs at STJ after 10z.
Conditions should quickly improve after 12z with northwest winds
increasing to 10-15 kts during the daylight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1022 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Quick update this evening to account for latest trends. Have removed
pops through the overnight period as no precip is occurring across
the CWA. In fact...latest arriving 00z NAM maintains a dry fcst
despite the expected passage of a cold front overnight. Main issue
continues to be warm air aloft which is providing modest capping
aloft as seen on latest AMDAR soundings from MCI. Moreover...large
scale forcing for ascent remains very weak as region remains in an
areas of NVA following this afternoon/s MCV passage. In
general...could no longer justify slgt chc-chc pops any longer given
the current trends and fcst has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main concern for the near term is if we see any additional
convection, where it may be and whether we see any severe
convection.

The MCV moving over the eastern portions of the forecast area has
blossomed new showers and storms east of the forecast area. While
there is modest instability for this area to work with, shear
remains very weak. Subsidence on the immediate tail end of the MCV
should inhibit additional convection temporarily. Focus then shifts
to storms in eastern Nebraska, whether they will survive further
south and if additional convection can develop in between the back
edge of the MCV and the Nebraska convection. There are a few fairly
large negatives. The first and what may inhibit storms all
together, is very warm air aloft. The 18Z TOP, OAX and SGF soundings
all showed, to some degree, a strong cap from very warm air aloft.
The second is relatively weak shear further south. This factor
though will become less of an issue as stronger winds aloft build
south and eastward ward and enhance shear further to the south and
east this evening.

Short-term higher resolution models favor very limited or even dry
conditions this evening and tonight. And even the coarser synoptic
scale models don`t indicate much precipitation moving into or
developing within the forecast area. It seems more likely that the
warm air aloft will inhibit convection despite there being robust
instability and increasing shear across northern Missouri. At this
time the risk of severe weather is very conditional on whether
enough forcing and/or cooling of air aloft can overcome the cap. So
for now, have maintained chance PoPs across mainly the northeastern
third of the forecast area for the evening hours.

The cold front will move through the area tonight and usher in
cooler and drier air to the region. There may be some showers/storms
develop along the front but as previously mentioned, shear decreases
further south and there will remain a nose of warm air aloft likely
inhibiting development. The cooler and drier air moving in will
result in highs in the 80s for both Sunday and Monday with dewpoints
in the 50s.

Regarding the heat advisory, temperatures will have the potential to
rebound quickly and limited mixing has kept dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s. It seems the greatest potential for areas to see at least a
few hours of excessive heat will Miami and Cass southward. For now
will keep the advisory going until we`re past peak heating and the
potential for a quick spike into the mid 90s has passed.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Tuesday through Saturday: Models continue to advertise a highly
amplified upper trough to reside over the eastern CONUS through much
of next week. This will result in unseasonably cool weather to
persist during the extended period. Maximum readings each afternoon
are expected to only warm into the lower 80s, with low temperatures
in the lower 60s. A dry atmosphere is expected to remain in place
with relative humidity below 20 percent through the H7-H4 layer.
Continued a slight chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday, but
overall probabilities remain low for any measurable rainfall during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Cold front expected to move through the region during the overnight with
winds gradually veering to the northwest during the predawn hrs. Out
ahead of this feature...isolated shwrs/storms will be possible
however overall confidence is too low to include with current update.
Following fropa...VFR conditions expected region-wide as drier air
moves into the area. Winds after 14z will remain from the northwest
between 10-15 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1022 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Quick update this evening to account for latest trends. Have removed
pops through the overnight period as no precip is occurring across
the CWA. In fact...latest arriving 00z NAM maintains a dry fcst
despite the expected passage of a cold front overnight. Main issue
continues to be warm air aloft which is providing modest capping
aloft as seen on latest AMDAR soundings from MCI. Moreover...large
scale forcing for ascent remains very weak as region remains in an
areas of NVA following this afternoon/s MCV passage. In
general...could no longer justify slgt chc-chc pops any longer given
the current trends and fcst has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main concern for the near term is if we see any additional
convection, where it may be and whether we see any severe
convection.

The MCV moving over the eastern portions of the forecast area has
blossomed new showers and storms east of the forecast area. While
there is modest instability for this area to work with, shear
remains very weak. Subsidence on the immediate tail end of the MCV
should inhibit additional convection temporarily. Focus then shifts
to storms in eastern Nebraska, whether they will survive further
south and if additional convection can develop in between the back
edge of the MCV and the Nebraska convection. There are a few fairly
large negatives. The first and what may inhibit storms all
together, is very warm air aloft. The 18Z TOP, OAX and SGF soundings
all showed, to some degree, a strong cap from very warm air aloft.
The second is relatively weak shear further south. This factor
though will become less of an issue as stronger winds aloft build
south and eastward ward and enhance shear further to the south and
east this evening.

Short-term higher resolution models favor very limited or even dry
conditions this evening and tonight. And even the coarser synoptic
scale models don`t indicate much precipitation moving into or
developing within the forecast area. It seems more likely that the
warm air aloft will inhibit convection despite there being robust
instability and increasing shear across northern Missouri. At this
time the risk of severe weather is very conditional on whether
enough forcing and/or cooling of air aloft can overcome the cap. So
for now, have maintained chance PoPs across mainly the northeastern
third of the forecast area for the evening hours.

The cold front will move through the area tonight and usher in
cooler and drier air to the region. There may be some showers/storms
develop along the front but as previously mentioned, shear decreases
further south and there will remain a nose of warm air aloft likely
inhibiting development. The cooler and drier air moving in will
result in highs in the 80s for both Sunday and Monday with dewpoints
in the 50s.

Regarding the heat advisory, temperatures will have the potential to
rebound quickly and limited mixing has kept dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s. It seems the greatest potential for areas to see at least a
few hours of excessive heat will Miami and Cass southward. For now
will keep the advisory going until we`re past peak heating and the
potential for a quick spike into the mid 90s has passed.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Tuesday through Saturday: Models continue to advertise a highly
amplified upper trough to reside over the eastern CONUS through much
of next week. This will result in unseasonably cool weather to
persist during the extended period. Maximum readings each afternoon
are expected to only warm into the lower 80s, with low temperatures
in the lower 60s. A dry atmosphere is expected to remain in place
with relative humidity below 20 percent through the H7-H4 layer.
Continued a slight chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday, but
overall probabilities remain low for any measurable rainfall during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Cold front expected to move through the region during the overnight with
winds gradually veering to the northwest during the predawn hrs. Out
ahead of this feature...isolated shwrs/storms will be possible
however overall confidence is too low to include with current update.
Following fropa...VFR conditions expected region-wide as drier air
moves into the area. Winds after 14z will remain from the northwest
between 10-15 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262354
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main concern for the near term is if we see any additional
convection, where it may be and whether we see any severe
convection.

The MCV moving over the eastern portions of the forecast area has
blossomed new showers and storms east of the forecast area. While
there is modest instability for this area to work with, shear
remains very weak. Subsidence on the immediate tail end of the MCV
should inhibit additional convection temporarily. Focus then shifts
to storms in eastern Nebraska, whether they will survive further
south and if additional convection can develop in between the back
edge of the MCV and the Nebraska convection. There are a few fairly
large negatives. The first and what may inhibit storms all
together, is very warm air aloft. The 18Z TOP, OAX and SGF soundings
all showed, to some degree, a strong cap from very warm air aloft.
The second is relatively weak shear further south. This factor
though will become less of an issue as stronger winds aloft build
south and eastward ward and enhance shear further to the south and
east this evening.

Short-term higher resolution models favor very limited or even dry
conditions this evening and tonight. And even the coarser synoptic
scale models don`t indicate much precipitation moving into or
developing within the forecast area. It seems more likely that the
warm air aloft will inhibit convection despite there being robust
instability and increasing shear across northern Missouri. At this
time the risk of severe weather is very conditional on whether
enough forcing and/or cooling of air aloft can overcome the cap. So
for now, have maintained chance PoPs across mainly the northeastern
third of the forecast area for the evening hours.

The cold front will move through the area tonight and usher in
cooler and drier air to the region. There may be some showers/storms
develop along the front but as previously mentioned, shear decreases
further south and there will remain a nose of warm air aloft likely
inhibiting development. The cooler and drier air moving in will
result in highs in the 80s for both Sunday and Monday with dewpoints
in the 50s.

Regarding the heat advisory, temperatures will have the potential to
rebound quickly and limited mixing has kept dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s. It seems the greatest potential for areas to see at least a
few hours of excessive heat will Miami and Cass southward. For now
will keep the advisory going until we`re past peak heating and the
potential for a quick spike into the mid 90s has passed.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Tuesday through Saturday: Models continue to advertise a highly
amplified upper trough to reside over the eastern CONUS through much
of next week. This will result in unseasonably cool weather to
persist during the extended period. Maximum readings each afternoon
are expected to only warm into the lower 80s, with low temperatures
in the lower 60s. A dry atmosphere is expected to remain in place
with relative humidity below 20 percent through the H7-H4 layer.
Continued a slight chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday, but
overall probabilities remain low for any measurable rainfall during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Cold front expected to move through the region during the overnight with
winds gradually veering to the northwest during the predawn hrs. Out
ahead of this feature...isolated shwrs/storms will be possible
however overall confidence is too low to include with current update.
Following fropa...VFR conditions expected region-wide as drier air
moves into the area. Winds after 14z will remain from the northwest
between 10-15 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262354
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main concern for the near term is if we see any additional
convection, where it may be and whether we see any severe
convection.

The MCV moving over the eastern portions of the forecast area has
blossomed new showers and storms east of the forecast area. While
there is modest instability for this area to work with, shear
remains very weak. Subsidence on the immediate tail end of the MCV
should inhibit additional convection temporarily. Focus then shifts
to storms in eastern Nebraska, whether they will survive further
south and if additional convection can develop in between the back
edge of the MCV and the Nebraska convection. There are a few fairly
large negatives. The first and what may inhibit storms all
together, is very warm air aloft. The 18Z TOP, OAX and SGF soundings
all showed, to some degree, a strong cap from very warm air aloft.
The second is relatively weak shear further south. This factor
though will become less of an issue as stronger winds aloft build
south and eastward ward and enhance shear further to the south and
east this evening.

Short-term higher resolution models favor very limited or even dry
conditions this evening and tonight. And even the coarser synoptic
scale models don`t indicate much precipitation moving into or
developing within the forecast area. It seems more likely that the
warm air aloft will inhibit convection despite there being robust
instability and increasing shear across northern Missouri. At this
time the risk of severe weather is very conditional on whether
enough forcing and/or cooling of air aloft can overcome the cap. So
for now, have maintained chance PoPs across mainly the northeastern
third of the forecast area for the evening hours.

The cold front will move through the area tonight and usher in
cooler and drier air to the region. There may be some showers/storms
develop along the front but as previously mentioned, shear decreases
further south and there will remain a nose of warm air aloft likely
inhibiting development. The cooler and drier air moving in will
result in highs in the 80s for both Sunday and Monday with dewpoints
in the 50s.

Regarding the heat advisory, temperatures will have the potential to
rebound quickly and limited mixing has kept dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s. It seems the greatest potential for areas to see at least a
few hours of excessive heat will Miami and Cass southward. For now
will keep the advisory going until we`re past peak heating and the
potential for a quick spike into the mid 90s has passed.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Tuesday through Saturday: Models continue to advertise a highly
amplified upper trough to reside over the eastern CONUS through much
of next week. This will result in unseasonably cool weather to
persist during the extended period. Maximum readings each afternoon
are expected to only warm into the lower 80s, with low temperatures
in the lower 60s. A dry atmosphere is expected to remain in place
with relative humidity below 20 percent through the H7-H4 layer.
Continued a slight chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday, but
overall probabilities remain low for any measurable rainfall during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Cold front expected to move through the region during the overnight with
winds gradually veering to the northwest during the predawn hrs. Out
ahead of this feature...isolated shwrs/storms will be possible
however overall confidence is too low to include with current update.
Following fropa...VFR conditions expected region-wide as drier air
moves into the area. Winds after 14z will remain from the northwest
between 10-15 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262030
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main concern for the near term is if we see any additional
convection, where it may be and whether we see any severe
convection.

The MCV moving over the eastern portions of the forecast area has
blossomed new showers and storms east of the forecast area. While
there is modest instability for this area to work with, shear
remains very weak. Subsidence on the immediate tail end of the MCV
should inhibit additional convection temporarily. Focus then shifts
to storms in eastern Nebraska, whether they will survive further
south and if additional convection can develop in between the back
edge of the MCV and the Nebraska convection. There are a few fairly
large negatives. The first and what may inhibit storms all
together, is very warm air aloft. The 18Z TOP, OAX and SGF soundings
all showed, to some degree, a strong cap from very warm air aloft.
The second is relatively weak shear further south. This factor
though will become less of an issue as stronger winds aloft build
south and eastward ward and enhance shear further to the south and
east this evening.

Short-term higher resolution models favor very limited or even dry
conditions this evening and tonight. And even the coarser synoptic
scale models don`t indicate much precipitation moving into or
developing within the forecast area. It seems more likely that the
warm air aloft will inhibit convection despite there being robust
instability and increasing shear across northern Missouri. At this
time the risk of severe weather is very conditional on whether
enough forcing and/or cooling of air aloft can overcome the cap. So
for now, have maintained chance PoPs across mainly the northeastern
third of the forecast area for the evening hours.

The cold front will move through the area tonight and usher in
cooler and drier air to the region. There may be some showers/storms
develop along the front but as previously mentioned, shear decreases
further south and there will remain a nose of warm air aloft likely
inhibiting development. The cooler and drier air moving in will
result in highs in the 80s for both Sunday and Monday with dewpoints
in the 50s.

Regarding the heat advisory, temperatures will have the potential to
rebound quickly and limited mixing has kept dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s. It seems the greatest potential for areas to see at least a
few hours of excessive heat will Miami and Cass southward. For now
will keep the advisory going until we`re past peak heating and the
potential for a quick spike into the mid 90s has passed.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Tuesday through Saturday: Models continue to advertise a highly
amplified upper trough to reside over the eastern CONUS through much
of next week. This will result in unseasonably cool weather to
persist during the extended period. Maximum readings each afternoon
are expected to only warm into the lower 80s, with low temperatures
in the lower 60s. A dry atmosphere is expected to remain in place
with relative humidity below 20 percent through the H7-H4 layer.
Continued a slight chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday, but
overall probabilities remain low for any measurable rainfall during
the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The ongoing showers/storms in the area should move east of the
terminals within an hour or two of issuance. The focus then shifts to
what the storms in northeastern Nebraska will do. On their current
path, they should stay to the northeast of the terminals and possibly
move through northern/northeastern Missouri. Latest guidance suggest
this line will weaken/erode as it begins to build into the area
though. So there is quite a bit of uncertainty still but confidence
is higher that this developing complex will not impact the terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262030
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main concern for the near term is if we see any additional
convection, where it may be and whether we see any severe
convection.

The MCV moving over the eastern portions of the forecast area has
blossomed new showers and storms east of the forecast area. While
there is modest instability for this area to work with, shear
remains very weak. Subsidence on the immediate tail end of the MCV
should inhibit additional convection temporarily. Focus then shifts
to storms in eastern Nebraska, whether they will survive further
south and if additional convection can develop in between the back
edge of the MCV and the Nebraska convection. There are a few fairly
large negatives. The first and what may inhibit storms all
together, is very warm air aloft. The 18Z TOP, OAX and SGF soundings
all showed, to some degree, a strong cap from very warm air aloft.
The second is relatively weak shear further south. This factor
though will become less of an issue as stronger winds aloft build
south and eastward ward and enhance shear further to the south and
east this evening.

Short-term higher resolution models favor very limited or even dry
conditions this evening and tonight. And even the coarser synoptic
scale models don`t indicate much precipitation moving into or
developing within the forecast area. It seems more likely that the
warm air aloft will inhibit convection despite there being robust
instability and increasing shear across northern Missouri. At this
time the risk of severe weather is very conditional on whether
enough forcing and/or cooling of air aloft can overcome the cap. So
for now, have maintained chance PoPs across mainly the northeastern
third of the forecast area for the evening hours.

The cold front will move through the area tonight and usher in
cooler and drier air to the region. There may be some showers/storms
develop along the front but as previously mentioned, shear decreases
further south and there will remain a nose of warm air aloft likely
inhibiting development. The cooler and drier air moving in will
result in highs in the 80s for both Sunday and Monday with dewpoints
in the 50s.

Regarding the heat advisory, temperatures will have the potential to
rebound quickly and limited mixing has kept dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s. It seems the greatest potential for areas to see at least a
few hours of excessive heat will Miami and Cass southward. For now
will keep the advisory going until we`re past peak heating and the
potential for a quick spike into the mid 90s has passed.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Tuesday through Saturday: Models continue to advertise a highly
amplified upper trough to reside over the eastern CONUS through much
of next week. This will result in unseasonably cool weather to
persist during the extended period. Maximum readings each afternoon
are expected to only warm into the lower 80s, with low temperatures
in the lower 60s. A dry atmosphere is expected to remain in place
with relative humidity below 20 percent through the H7-H4 layer.
Continued a slight chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday, but
overall probabilities remain low for any measurable rainfall during
the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The ongoing showers/storms in the area should move east of the
terminals within an hour or two of issuance. The focus then shifts to
what the storms in northeastern Nebraska will do. On their current
path, they should stay to the northeast of the terminals and possibly
move through northern/northeastern Missouri. Latest guidance suggest
this line will weaken/erode as it begins to build into the area
though. So there is quite a bit of uncertainty still but confidence
is higher that this developing complex will not impact the terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A MCV over northeastern Kansas is throwing a few wrinkles into the
going forecast. First, cloud cover is limiting how quickly we are
warming up so far this morning and with the bulk of the MCV yet to
track over the area it seems thicker cloud cover will persist through
much of today. This will continue to hold back temperatures through
at least early this afternoon. To account for this, have lowered
temperatures 2 to 3 degrees/ hr which resulted in about a 2 to 3
degree decrease in max temperatures. Dewpoints are tracking well but
with lower temperatures heat indices are now around 100 to as warm as
103.

The second concern is that this MCV will allow convection to
redevelop ahead of it. This is already occurring with isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms being triggered in the unstable
environment due to forcing from the MCV. Have increased or added
precipitation chances across mainly the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area to account for this. While there is ample instability
for this convection, shear is very weak at this point in time, so the
threat of severe weather is low.

The other item we`re watching is intense convection entering
northeastern Nebraska that is on a trajectory towards the forecast
area. This area seems to be mainly driven by a shortwave moving
around western ridge. It`s possible this area may move into northern
Missouri later this afternoon/early this evening. The question though
is if the stronger shear helping to sustain that convection can
build further south as well. The HRRR has started indicate this
system moving into the area but decreasing in strength. However
broader scale models and mesoanalysis show shear increasing across
northern Missouri so there appears to be some potential for either
the ongoing convection or new convection to develop across northern
Missouri and potentially become severe later this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.

Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.

The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.

By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The ongoing showers/storms in the area should move east of the
terminals within an hour or two of issuance. The focus then shifts to
what the storms in northeastern Nebraska will do. On their current
path, they should stay to the northeast of the terminals and possibly
move through northern/northeastern Missouri. Latest guidance suggest
this line will weaken/erode as it begins to build into the area
though. So there is quite a bit of uncertainty still but confidence
is higher that this developing complex will not impact the terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A MCV over northeastern Kansas is throwing a few wrinkles into the
going forecast. First, cloud cover is limiting how quickly we are
warming up so far this morning and with the bulk of the MCV yet to
track over the area it seems thicker cloud cover will persist through
much of today. This will continue to hold back temperatures through
at least early this afternoon. To account for this, have lowered
temperatures 2 to 3 degrees/ hr which resulted in about a 2 to 3
degree decrease in max temperatures. Dewpoints are tracking well but
with lower temperatures heat indices are now around 100 to as warm as
103.

The second concern is that this MCV will allow convection to
redevelop ahead of it. This is already occurring with isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms being triggered in the unstable
environment due to forcing from the MCV. Have increased or added
precipitation chances across mainly the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area to account for this. While there is ample instability
for this convection, shear is very weak at this point in time, so the
threat of severe weather is low.

The other item we`re watching is intense convection entering
northeastern Nebraska that is on a trajectory towards the forecast
area. This area seems to be mainly driven by a shortwave moving
around western ridge. It`s possible this area may move into northern
Missouri later this afternoon/early this evening. The question though
is if the stronger shear helping to sustain that convection can
build further south as well. The HRRR has started indicate this
system moving into the area but decreasing in strength. However
broader scale models and mesoanalysis show shear increasing across
northern Missouri so there appears to be some potential for either
the ongoing convection or new convection to develop across northern
Missouri and potentially become severe later this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.

Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.

The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.

By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The ongoing showers/storms in the area should move east of the
terminals within an hour or two of issuance. The focus then shifts to
what the storms in northeastern Nebraska will do. On their current
path, they should stay to the northeast of the terminals and possibly
move through northern/northeastern Missouri. Latest guidance suggest
this line will weaken/erode as it begins to build into the area
though. So there is quite a bit of uncertainty still but confidence
is higher that this developing complex will not impact the terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261533
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A MCV over northeastern Kansas is throwing a few wrinkles into the
going forecast. First, cloud cover is limiting how quickly we are
warming up so far this morning and with the bulk of the MCV yet to
track over the area it seems thicker cloud cover will persist through
much of today. This will continue to hold back temperatures through
at least early this afternoon. To account for this, have lowered
temperatures 2 to 3 degrees/ hr which resulted in about a 2 to 3
degree decrease in max temperatures. Dewpoints are tracking well but
with lower temperatures heat indices are now around 100 to as warm as
103.

The second concern is that this MCV will allow convection to
redevelop ahead of it. This is already occurring with isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms being triggered in the unstable
environment due to forcing from the MCV. Have increased or added
precipitation chances across mainly the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area to account for this. While there is ample instability
for this convection, shear is very weak at this point in time, so the
threat of severe weather is low.

The other item we`re watching is intense convection entering
northeastern Nebraska that is on a trajectory towards the forecast
area. This area seems to be mainly driven by a shortwave moving
around western ridge. It`s possible this area may move into northern
Missouri later this afternoon/early this evening. The question though
is if the stronger shear helping to sustain that convection can
build further south as well. The HRRR has started indicate this
system moving into the area but decreasing in strength. However
broader scale models and mesoanalysis show shear increasing across
northern Missouri so there appears to be some potential for either
the ongoing convection or new convection to develop across northern
Missouri and potentially become severe later this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.

Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.

The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.

By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conds will continue the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
through the afternoon. The main concern for aviators will come this
evening as a cold front approaches and thunderstorms develop out
ahead of it. Models continue to develop thunderstorms east of the
terminals so have not included a VCTS mention in the TAF at this time
however did introduce sct cu btn 4-5kft this evening. The winds will
be out of the SW around 10kts at today becoming light and variable
this evening as the front approaches. FROPA will occur btn 03Z-05Z
with winds shifting to the north btn 5-10kts behind the front.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261533
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A MCV over northeastern Kansas is throwing a few wrinkles into the
going forecast. First, cloud cover is limiting how quickly we are
warming up so far this morning and with the bulk of the MCV yet to
track over the area it seems thicker cloud cover will persist through
much of today. This will continue to hold back temperatures through
at least early this afternoon. To account for this, have lowered
temperatures 2 to 3 degrees/ hr which resulted in about a 2 to 3
degree decrease in max temperatures. Dewpoints are tracking well but
with lower temperatures heat indices are now around 100 to as warm as
103.

The second concern is that this MCV will allow convection to
redevelop ahead of it. This is already occurring with isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms being triggered in the unstable
environment due to forcing from the MCV. Have increased or added
precipitation chances across mainly the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area to account for this. While there is ample instability
for this convection, shear is very weak at this point in time, so the
threat of severe weather is low.

The other item we`re watching is intense convection entering
northeastern Nebraska that is on a trajectory towards the forecast
area. This area seems to be mainly driven by a shortwave moving
around western ridge. It`s possible this area may move into northern
Missouri later this afternoon/early this evening. The question though
is if the stronger shear helping to sustain that convection can
build further south as well. The HRRR has started indicate this
system moving into the area but decreasing in strength. However
broader scale models and mesoanalysis show shear increasing across
northern Missouri so there appears to be some potential for either
the ongoing convection or new convection to develop across northern
Missouri and potentially become severe later this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.

Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.

The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.

By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conds will continue the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
through the afternoon. The main concern for aviators will come this
evening as a cold front approaches and thunderstorms develop out
ahead of it. Models continue to develop thunderstorms east of the
terminals so have not included a VCTS mention in the TAF at this time
however did introduce sct cu btn 4-5kft this evening. The winds will
be out of the SW around 10kts at today becoming light and variable
this evening as the front approaches. FROPA will occur btn 03Z-05Z
with winds shifting to the north btn 5-10kts behind the front.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261102
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.

Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.

The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.

By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conds will continue the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
through the afternoon. The main concern for aviators will come this
evening as a cold front approaches and thunderstorms develop out
ahead of it. Models continue to develop thunderstorms east of the
terminals so have not included a VCTS mention in the TAF at this time
however did introduce sct cu btn 4-5kft this evening. The winds will
be out of the SW around 10kts at today becoming light and variable
this evening as the front approaches. FROPA will occur btn 03Z-05Z
with winds shifting to the north btn 5-10kts behind the front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261102
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.

Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.

The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.

By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conds will continue the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
through the afternoon. The main concern for aviators will come this
evening as a cold front approaches and thunderstorms develop out
ahead of it. Models continue to develop thunderstorms east of the
terminals so have not included a VCTS mention in the TAF at this time
however did introduce sct cu btn 4-5kft this evening. The winds will
be out of the SW around 10kts at today becoming light and variable
this evening as the front approaches. FROPA will occur btn 03Z-05Z
with winds shifting to the north btn 5-10kts behind the front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260903
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
403 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.

Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.

The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.

By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the critical portion of the TAF period with
just sct-bkn high clouds expected through the afternoon. During the
evening a cold front will begin to approach the terminals. There may
be thunderstorms associated with this front however better chances
appear to remain east of the terminals. As such, did not include a
VCTS at this time but it may be necessary for the evening hours in
future updates. Winds will be out of the SSW btn 7-12kts with gusts to
20kts at MKC thru the afternoon hours. As the cold front slowly
approaches the terminals during the evening, winds will diminish to
5-10kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260903
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
403 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.

Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.

The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.

By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the critical portion of the TAF period with
just sct-bkn high clouds expected through the afternoon. During the
evening a cold front will begin to approach the terminals. There may
be thunderstorms associated with this front however better chances
appear to remain east of the terminals. As such, did not include a
VCTS at this time but it may be necessary for the evening hours in
future updates. Winds will be out of the SSW btn 7-12kts with gusts to
20kts at MKC thru the afternoon hours. As the cold front slowly
approaches the terminals during the evening, winds will diminish to
5-10kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260540
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

There a couple of concerns over the next 24 to 36 hours. The hazard
that will affect the most people through Saturday evening is the
extreme heat over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These
conditions will persist into Saturday as temperatures aloft look
very similar. There may be less mixing however so the ability to
reach our maximum potential high temperature may be limited. But
given the similar 26C to 28C 850mb air, did raise temperatures over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri a degree or two. Dewpoints look
to be similar as well and with the dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices should once again rise to around 105 degrees in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. So will go ahead and issue a heat
advisory for many of the same areas as today. The exception will be
in extreme northeastern Kansas and extreme northwestern Missouri
where temperatures will be lower due to cloud cover associated with a
front in the area.

The second concern is the potential for severe convection across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. The greatest chances
will be across northern/northeastern Missouri, where the cap will be
less and the potential greatest for a convective system to move into
that area, skirting the warmest 700mb temperatures to the south. The
rest of the area looks solidly capped, similar to this past Tuesday,
as the cold front moves through. But a convective system may form
across central to northern High Plains tonight and track to the east
southeast, potentially moving into northern/northeastern Missouri
tomorrow afternoon. There will be ample shear for this system due to
strong northwesterly upper-level flow. IF storms can move into or
even develop in the northern/northeastern portions of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon/evening, there is a good potential they would
be severe given the CAPE/shear combinations. The biggest threat looks
to be from damaging winds as a potentially strong convective system
evolves and moves east southeastward with time.

For the remainder of the weekend and then especially into next week,
cooler weather will prevail. Much of the extended portion of the
forecast, from Monday through Thursday, calls for high temperatures
in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s.  Cooler and drier
Canadian high pressure will build southward across the Plains and
Midwest ushering in the unseasonably cool weather. That high should
be the primary influence on the area through Thursday. More seasonal
temperatures should return to the forecast by Friday ahead of the
next cold front.

There may be periodic chances for showers and storms in the area later
next week. The upper levels will remain in a northwest flow pattern
and there is always the potential a weak system could provide enough
lift to produce some precipitation. The other scenario is that with
cooler air aloft, there may be enough surface heating to yield some
diurnal precipitation. Regardless, for now just can`t see going
anything higher than slight chance PoPs around 20%.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the critical portion of the TAF period with
just sct-bkn high clouds expected through the afternoon. During the
evening a cold front will begin to approach the terminals. There may
be thunderstorms associated with this front however better chances
appear to remain east of the terminals. As such, did not include a
VCTS at this time but it may be necessary for the evening hours in
future updates. Winds will be out of the SSW btn 7-12kts with gusts to
20kts at MKC thru the afternoon hours. As the cold front slowly
approaches the terminals during the evening, winds will diminish to
5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260540
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

There a couple of concerns over the next 24 to 36 hours. The hazard
that will affect the most people through Saturday evening is the
extreme heat over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These
conditions will persist into Saturday as temperatures aloft look
very similar. There may be less mixing however so the ability to
reach our maximum potential high temperature may be limited. But
given the similar 26C to 28C 850mb air, did raise temperatures over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri a degree or two. Dewpoints look
to be similar as well and with the dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices should once again rise to around 105 degrees in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. So will go ahead and issue a heat
advisory for many of the same areas as today. The exception will be
in extreme northeastern Kansas and extreme northwestern Missouri
where temperatures will be lower due to cloud cover associated with a
front in the area.

The second concern is the potential for severe convection across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. The greatest chances
will be across northern/northeastern Missouri, where the cap will be
less and the potential greatest for a convective system to move into
that area, skirting the warmest 700mb temperatures to the south. The
rest of the area looks solidly capped, similar to this past Tuesday,
as the cold front moves through. But a convective system may form
across central to northern High Plains tonight and track to the east
southeast, potentially moving into northern/northeastern Missouri
tomorrow afternoon. There will be ample shear for this system due to
strong northwesterly upper-level flow. IF storms can move into or
even develop in the northern/northeastern portions of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon/evening, there is a good potential they would
be severe given the CAPE/shear combinations. The biggest threat looks
to be from damaging winds as a potentially strong convective system
evolves and moves east southeastward with time.

For the remainder of the weekend and then especially into next week,
cooler weather will prevail. Much of the extended portion of the
forecast, from Monday through Thursday, calls for high temperatures
in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s.  Cooler and drier
Canadian high pressure will build southward across the Plains and
Midwest ushering in the unseasonably cool weather. That high should
be the primary influence on the area through Thursday. More seasonal
temperatures should return to the forecast by Friday ahead of the
next cold front.

There may be periodic chances for showers and storms in the area later
next week. The upper levels will remain in a northwest flow pattern
and there is always the potential a weak system could provide enough
lift to produce some precipitation. The other scenario is that with
cooler air aloft, there may be enough surface heating to yield some
diurnal precipitation. Regardless, for now just can`t see going
anything higher than slight chance PoPs around 20%.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the critical portion of the TAF period with
just sct-bkn high clouds expected through the afternoon. During the
evening a cold front will begin to approach the terminals. There may
be thunderstorms associated with this front however better chances
appear to remain east of the terminals. As such, did not include a
VCTS at this time but it may be necessary for the evening hours in
future updates. Winds will be out of the SSW btn 7-12kts with gusts to
20kts at MKC thru the afternoon hours. As the cold front slowly
approaches the terminals during the evening, winds will diminish to
5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

There a couple of concerns over the next 24 to 36 hours. The hazard
that will affect the most people through Saturday evening is the
extreme heat over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These
conditions will persist into Saturday as temperatures aloft look
very similar. There may be less mixing however so the ability to
reach our maximum potential high temperature may be limited. But
given the similar 26C to 28C 850mb air, did raise temperatures over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri a degree or two. Dewpoints look
to be similar as well and with the dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices should once again rise to around 105 degrees in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. So will go ahead and issue a heat
advisory for many of the same areas as today. The exception will be
in extreme northeastern Kansas and extreme northwestern Missouri
where temperatures will be lower due to cloud cover associated with a
front in the area.

The second concern is the potential for severe convection across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. The greatest chances
will be across northern/northeastern Missouri, where the cap will be
less and the potential greatest for a convective system to move into
that area, skirting the warmest 700mb temperatures to the south. The
rest of the area looks solidly capped, similar to this past Tuesday,
as the cold front moves through. But a convective system may form
across central to northern High Plains tonight and track to the east
southeast, potentially moving into northern/northeastern Missouri
tomorrow afternoon. There will be ample shear for this system due to
strong northwesterly upper-level flow. IF storms can move into or
even develop in the northern/northeastern portions of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon/evening, there is a good potential they would
be severe given the CAPE/shear combinations. The biggest threat looks
to be from damaging winds as a potentially strong convective system
evolves and moves east southeastward with time.

For the remainder of the weekend and then especially into next week,
cooler weather will prevail. Much of the extended portion of the
forecast, from Monday through Thursday, calls for high temperatures
in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s.  Cooler and drier
Canadian high pressure will build southward across the Plains and
Midwest ushering in the unseasonably cool weather. That high should
be the primary influence on the area through Thursday. More seasonal
temperatures should return to the forecast by Friday ahead of the
next cold front.

There may be periodic chances for showers and storms in the area later
next week. The upper levels will remain in a northwest flow pattern
and there is always the potential a weak system could provide enough
lift to produce some precipitation. The other scenario is that with
cooler air aloft, there may be enough surface heating to yield some
diurnal precipitation. Regardless, for now just can`t see going
anything higher than slight chance PoPs around 20%.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Only issues to watch should be the wind as it lightens up this
evening and returns to being gusty again tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
there is an slight chance for thunderstorms to bubble up tomorrow
afternoon, but confidence in any of those storms effecting the
terminals is low enough to not include any mention in the terminal
forecasts at this time.



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>004-011>013-
     020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ020-021-028-
     029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

There a couple of concerns over the next 24 to 36 hours. The hazard
that will affect the most people through Saturday evening is the
extreme heat over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These
conditions will persist into Saturday as temperatures aloft look
very similar. There may be less mixing however so the ability to
reach our maximum potential high temperature may be limited. But
given the similar 26C to 28C 850mb air, did raise temperatures over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri a degree or two. Dewpoints look
to be similar as well and with the dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices should once again rise to around 105 degrees in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. So will go ahead and issue a heat
advisory for many of the same areas as today. The exception will be
in extreme northeastern Kansas and extreme northwestern Missouri
where temperatures will be lower due to cloud cover associated with a
front in the area.

The second concern is the potential for severe convection across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. The greatest chances
will be across northern/northeastern Missouri, where the cap will be
less and the potential greatest for a convective system to move into
that area, skirting the warmest 700mb temperatures to the south. The
rest of the area looks solidly capped, similar to this past Tuesday,
as the cold front moves through. But a convective system may form
across central to northern High Plains tonight and track to the east
southeast, potentially moving into northern/northeastern Missouri
tomorrow afternoon. There will be ample shear for this system due to
strong northwesterly upper-level flow. IF storms can move into or
even develop in the northern/northeastern portions of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon/evening, there is a good potential they would
be severe given the CAPE/shear combinations. The biggest threat looks
to be from damaging winds as a potentially strong convective system
evolves and moves east southeastward with time.

For the remainder of the weekend and then especially into next week,
cooler weather will prevail. Much of the extended portion of the
forecast, from Monday through Thursday, calls for high temperatures
in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s.  Cooler and drier
Canadian high pressure will build southward across the Plains and
Midwest ushering in the unseasonably cool weather. That high should
be the primary influence on the area through Thursday. More seasonal
temperatures should return to the forecast by Friday ahead of the
next cold front.

There may be periodic chances for showers and storms in the area later
next week. The upper levels will remain in a northwest flow pattern
and there is always the potential a weak system could provide enough
lift to produce some precipitation. The other scenario is that with
cooler air aloft, there may be enough surface heating to yield some
diurnal precipitation. Regardless, for now just can`t see going
anything higher than slight chance PoPs around 20%.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Only issues to watch should be the wind as it lightens up this
evening and returns to being gusty again tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
there is an slight chance for thunderstorms to bubble up tomorrow
afternoon, but confidence in any of those storms effecting the
terminals is low enough to not include any mention in the terminal
forecasts at this time.



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>004-011>013-
     020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ020-021-028-
     029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252010
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

There a couple of concerns over the next 24 to 36 hours. The hazard
that will affect the most people through Saturday evening is the
extreme heat over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These
conditions will persist into Saturday as temperatures aloft look
very similar. There may be less mixing however so the ability to
reach our maximum potential high temperature may be limited. But
given the similar 26C to 28C 850mb air, did raise temperatures over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri a degree or two. Dewpoints look
to be similar as well and with the dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices should once again rise to around 105 degrees in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. So will go ahead and issue a heat
advisory for many of the same areas as today. The exception will be
in extreme northeastern Kansas and extreme northwestern Missouri
where temperatures will be lower due to cloud cover associated with a
front in the area.

The second concern is the potential for severe convection across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. The greatest chances
will be across northern/northeastern Missouri, where the cap will be
less and the potential greatest for a convective system to move into
that area, skirting the warmest 700mb temperatures to the south. The
rest of the area looks solidly capped, similar to this past Tuesday,
as the cold front moves through. But a convective system may form
across central to northern High Plains tonight and track to the east
southeast, potentially moving into northern/northeastern Missouri
tomorrow afternoon. There will be ample shear for this system due to
strong northwesterly upper-level flow. IF storms can move into or
even develop in the northern/northeastern portions of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon/evening, there is a good potential they would
be severe given the CAPE/shear combinations. The biggest threat looks
to be from damaging winds as a potentially strong convective system
evolves and moves east southeastward with time.

For the remainder of the weekend and then especially into next week,
cooler weather will prevail. Much of the extended portion of the
forecast, from Monday through Thursday, calls for high temperatures
in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s.  Cooler and drier
Canadian high pressure will build southward across the Plains and
Midwest ushering in the unseasonably cool weather. That high should
be the primary influence on the area through Thursday. More seasonal
temperatures should return to the forecast by Friday ahead of the
next cold front.

There may be periodic chances for showers and storms in the area later
next week. The upper levels will remain in a northwest flow pattern
and there is always the potential a weak system could provide enough
lift to produce some precipitation. The other scenario is that with
cooler air aloft, there may be enough surface heating to yield some
diurnal precipitation. Regardless, for now just can`t see going
anything higher than slight chance PoPs around 20%.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period across northwestern
Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Winds will become less gusty
overnight but remain mixed with speeds still around 12 kts. Winds
should become gusty again tomorrow but not quite as strong as today.
There is a small chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
However, there is a strong cap in place so thinking there is a much
better chance we`ll remain dry. Have left out any mention from the
forecast as probabilities are too low to even carry a VCTS group at
this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>004-011>013-
     020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ020-021-028-
     029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252010
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

There a couple of concerns over the next 24 to 36 hours. The hazard
that will affect the most people through Saturday evening is the
extreme heat over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These
conditions will persist into Saturday as temperatures aloft look
very similar. There may be less mixing however so the ability to
reach our maximum potential high temperature may be limited. But
given the similar 26C to 28C 850mb air, did raise temperatures over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri a degree or two. Dewpoints look
to be similar as well and with the dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices should once again rise to around 105 degrees in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. So will go ahead and issue a heat
advisory for many of the same areas as today. The exception will be
in extreme northeastern Kansas and extreme northwestern Missouri
where temperatures will be lower due to cloud cover associated with a
front in the area.

The second concern is the potential for severe convection across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. The greatest chances
will be across northern/northeastern Missouri, where the cap will be
less and the potential greatest for a convective system to move into
that area, skirting the warmest 700mb temperatures to the south. The
rest of the area looks solidly capped, similar to this past Tuesday,
as the cold front moves through. But a convective system may form
across central to northern High Plains tonight and track to the east
southeast, potentially moving into northern/northeastern Missouri
tomorrow afternoon. There will be ample shear for this system due to
strong northwesterly upper-level flow. IF storms can move into or
even develop in the northern/northeastern portions of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon/evening, there is a good potential they would
be severe given the CAPE/shear combinations. The biggest threat looks
to be from damaging winds as a potentially strong convective system
evolves and moves east southeastward with time.

For the remainder of the weekend and then especially into next week,
cooler weather will prevail. Much of the extended portion of the
forecast, from Monday through Thursday, calls for high temperatures
in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s.  Cooler and drier
Canadian high pressure will build southward across the Plains and
Midwest ushering in the unseasonably cool weather. That high should
be the primary influence on the area through Thursday. More seasonal
temperatures should return to the forecast by Friday ahead of the
next cold front.

There may be periodic chances for showers and storms in the area later
next week. The upper levels will remain in a northwest flow pattern
and there is always the potential a weak system could provide enough
lift to produce some precipitation. The other scenario is that with
cooler air aloft, there may be enough surface heating to yield some
diurnal precipitation. Regardless, for now just can`t see going
anything higher than slight chance PoPs around 20%.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period across northwestern
Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Winds will become less gusty
overnight but remain mixed with speeds still around 12 kts. Winds
should become gusty again tomorrow but not quite as strong as today.
There is a small chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
However, there is a strong cap in place so thinking there is a much
better chance we`ll remain dry. Have left out any mention from the
forecast as probabilities are too low to even carry a VCTS group at
this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>004-011>013-
     020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ020-021-028-
     029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251703
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Early this morning the radar is active north of the area with a two
complexes of thunderstorms evident. The first is moving from
southeastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa and is decaying
however, this may bring some light showers or an isolated
thunderstorm into extreme northwestern Missouri early this morning.
A second complex is moving through central Iowa and is moving
southeastward. This complex has held together overnight and it may
clip the northeastern CWA bring thunderstorms during the morning
hours.

By late morning, showers will exit the region and we will watch the
heat build across the area. Cooler temperatures will be across the
northeastern CWA where morning showers and clouds will hold on
longer with warmer temperatures across the western CWA. 850mb
temperature this afternoon will range from 22C-26C...this will yield
high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s across the
eastern CWA and highs in the mow to mid 90s across the western CWA.
Factor in dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat indices
will range from 102 to 107 across the western CWA. AS such a heat
advisory has been issued through 7PM this evening.

Tonight, a cold front will approach the area and stall from southern
Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas. A
shortwave is expected to move across Iowa and into northeastern
Missouri. This will bring the chance for thunderstorms across the
northeastern CWA after midnight tonight.

Saturday, the area remains in the warm sector where 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 22C-26C allowing for highs in the
low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will again be in the lower 70s yielding
heat indices from 100 to 105. Any storm develop should be suppressed
by a cap in place during the day. Saturday night, a strong upper
level trough will dig from the southern Canadian Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This will force the cold front through the area.
Forcing along this front Saturday night continue to look weak as the
better upper level support remains north of the CWA. However, if
storms can initiate there is the potential for storms to become
severe as conditions will be quite unstable with 2500-3500J/kg of
CAPE available.

By Sunday morning the cold front will have shifted south of the area
while the upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Temperatures will be much more manageable with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. A secondary cold front will shift through the area
early on Monday with much cooler July air in behind it with highs in
the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday the aforementioned
upper trough digs into the Ohio River Valley leaving the area under
cooler northwest flow aloft and temperatures remain cool with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday will provide the next chance
for precipitation beyond Saturday night as models are advertising a
upper shortwave moving into the area in northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period across northwestern
Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Winds will become less gusty
overnight but remain mixed with speeds still around 12 kts. Winds
should become gusty again tomorrow but not quite as strong as today.
There is a small chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
However, there is a strong cap in place so thinking there is a much
better chance we`ll remain dry. Have left out any mention from the
forecast as probabilities are too low to even carry a VCTS group at
this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>004-011>013-
     020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251703
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Early this morning the radar is active north of the area with a two
complexes of thunderstorms evident. The first is moving from
southeastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa and is decaying
however, this may bring some light showers or an isolated
thunderstorm into extreme northwestern Missouri early this morning.
A second complex is moving through central Iowa and is moving
southeastward. This complex has held together overnight and it may
clip the northeastern CWA bring thunderstorms during the morning
hours.

By late morning, showers will exit the region and we will watch the
heat build across the area. Cooler temperatures will be across the
northeastern CWA where morning showers and clouds will hold on
longer with warmer temperatures across the western CWA. 850mb
temperature this afternoon will range from 22C-26C...this will yield
high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s across the
eastern CWA and highs in the mow to mid 90s across the western CWA.
Factor in dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat indices
will range from 102 to 107 across the western CWA. AS such a heat
advisory has been issued through 7PM this evening.

Tonight, a cold front will approach the area and stall from southern
Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas. A
shortwave is expected to move across Iowa and into northeastern
Missouri. This will bring the chance for thunderstorms across the
northeastern CWA after midnight tonight.

Saturday, the area remains in the warm sector where 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 22C-26C allowing for highs in the
low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will again be in the lower 70s yielding
heat indices from 100 to 105. Any storm develop should be suppressed
by a cap in place during the day. Saturday night, a strong upper
level trough will dig from the southern Canadian Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This will force the cold front through the area.
Forcing along this front Saturday night continue to look weak as the
better upper level support remains north of the CWA. However, if
storms can initiate there is the potential for storms to become
severe as conditions will be quite unstable with 2500-3500J/kg of
CAPE available.

By Sunday morning the cold front will have shifted south of the area
while the upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Temperatures will be much more manageable with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. A secondary cold front will shift through the area
early on Monday with much cooler July air in behind it with highs in
the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday the aforementioned
upper trough digs into the Ohio River Valley leaving the area under
cooler northwest flow aloft and temperatures remain cool with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday will provide the next chance
for precipitation beyond Saturday night as models are advertising a
upper shortwave moving into the area in northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period across northwestern
Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Winds will become less gusty
overnight but remain mixed with speeds still around 12 kts. Winds
should become gusty again tomorrow but not quite as strong as today.
There is a small chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
However, there is a strong cap in place so thinking there is a much
better chance we`ll remain dry. Have left out any mention from the
forecast as probabilities are too low to even carry a VCTS group at
this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>004-011>013-
     020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB







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