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000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Turned out to be a fairly busy day as heavy rains impacted portions
of northwest Missouri overnight into the daylight hours. In
fact...gage and local COOP reports indicted close to 5" of new rain
across Atchison County, MO...with even higher amounts likely due to
continued rainfall through early afternoon. Concerns continue to rise
this afternoon for another heavy rainfall event tonight...but we/ll
address those concerns a little later.

Local radar showing weak convection across southeastern portions of
the fcst area this afternoon...as redeveloping southerly flow begins to
ascend the convectively reinforced stalled front to our south. Though
severe is not expected at this time...a strong wind gust to two
cannot be ruled out before activity decreases with loss of daytime
heating early tonight.

Moving on to the overnight...concerns quickly shift to possible heavy
rainfall event as large scale trough drops from the central Rockies
into the high Plains. As this occurs...fcst models in excellent
agreement that a leeside low will track northeast through the central
Plains which will result in gradual northward movement of the
stalled front as a southerly LLJ of 30-35 kts strengthens over time.
Models in recent days have had a difficult time in determining where
the heaviest QPF axis would occur...and today/s model suite is no
different as the GFS and high-res ARW and NMM members maintain the
furthest southward position /i.e. over NW MO/. Considering this
morning/s outflow essentially kept the front in place much of the day
today...forecaster consensus amongst WPC and several surrounding WFOs
has been to follow the further southward position. As a
result...portions of our area will be under the gun once again for
renewed convection and heavy rainfall as we progress through the
overnight period tonight into Thursday morning.

As a possible clue...Blended TPW and Percent of Normal satellite
products showing PWAT values close to 2" across the area today /2-3
standard deviations above normal/. Meanwhile...experimental layered
RH satellite fields showing upper-level moisture actually being
advected our way from Hurricane Marie over the western Pacific as
southerly flow intensifies ahead of approaching upper trough axis. As
a result...have elected to go with a flash flood watch which will be
in effect from 3z through 15z Thursday. Would not be surprised to see
a few 2-3 inch reports up north and considering 1 and 3 hr flash flood
guidance is extremely low due to earlier heavy rainfall...see no
reason not to have a watch in place.

Shwrs/storms should gradually begin to die down Thursday morning as
front retreats north into Iowa and Nebraska. With area residing in
the warm sector once again...afternoon high temps on Thursday should
rebound back into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of the
region. Shwrs/storms to begin redeveloping once again on Friday as
main upper trough axis begins to approach the west. Will have to watch
how things transpire Thursday morning to see if any additional hydro
headlines will be needed through late week. Main trough and associated
cold front to pass through the area on Friday night into Saturday.
Have offered likely pops across much of the area Friday night before
showing a gradual drying trend through the day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Upper troughing still in place over the region for the second half
of the weekend. This will result in additional chances of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF and GFS
indicate the nocturnal jet strongest over west central Kansas...but
the GFS favors precipitation developing on the nose of the jet and
towards the east and the ECMWF prefers the Dakotas during the night
on Saturday.

By Sunday...Upper level jet digging into the northern or central
Rockies helps induce lee side cyclogenesis. This along with a
thermal ridge axis out ahead of surface feature will turn surface
flow more southerly ushering in additional moisture. Too early to
say how much capping we will have during the day...so keeping PoPs
at slight chance through the day on Sunday is reasonable. In
addition...temperatures will creep back up into the upper
80s...especially if we have decent sunshine.

Sunday night into Monday...finally will see surface front into
northwest of CWA and better chances of rain once again in northern
half of Missouri and Kansas. Decent temperature gradient with lower
80s north of the Missouri River and around 90F in the southern zones
for Monday and Tuesday. Depending on where the front stalls on
Tuesday...we may see additional heavy precipitation in the area
through mid week.  Models diverge some with GFS bringing the front
back as a warm front during the day on Wednesday...while the ECMWF
pushes the precipitation down into Arkansas.  Either way...most of
the extended forecast will have better chances of precipitation than
we have seen south of the Missouri River over the last couple of
weeks. Temperatures should be down from the last several days as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals in Kansas City for the
next 24 hours. Farther north thunderstorms will affect the northwest
corner of Missouri early Thursday morning. This may impact the KSTJ
terminal, hence VCTS and a TEMPO for thunderstorms early Thursday
morning. Storms are not expected to track far enough south to effect
Kansas City. Otherwise, east winds will veer to the south through
Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Turned out to be a fairly busy day as heavy rains impacted portions
of northwest Missouri overnight into the daylight hours. In
fact...gage and local COOP reports indicted close to 5" of new rain
across Atchison County, MO...with even higher amounts likely due to
continued rainfall through early afternoon. Concerns continue to rise
this afternoon for another heavy rainfall event tonight...but we/ll
address those concerns a little later.

Local radar showing weak convection across southeastern portions of
the fcst area this afternoon...as redeveloping southerly flow begins to
ascend the convectively reinforced stalled front to our south. Though
severe is not expected at this time...a strong wind gust to two
cannot be ruled out before activity decreases with loss of daytime
heating early tonight.

Moving on to the overnight...concerns quickly shift to possible heavy
rainfall event as large scale trough drops from the central Rockies
into the high Plains. As this occurs...fcst models in excellent
agreement that a leeside low will track northeast through the central
Plains which will result in gradual northward movement of the
stalled front as a southerly LLJ of 30-35 kts strengthens over time.
Models in recent days have had a difficult time in determining where
the heaviest QPF axis would occur...and today/s model suite is no
different as the GFS and high-res ARW and NMM members maintain the
furthest southward position /i.e. over NW MO/. Considering this
morning/s outflow essentially kept the front in place much of the day
today...forecaster consensus amongst WPC and several surrounding WFOs
has been to follow the further southward position. As a
result...portions of our area will be under the gun once again for
renewed convection and heavy rainfall as we progress through the
overnight period tonight into Thursday morning.

As a possible clue...Blended TPW and Percent of Normal satellite
products showing PWAT values close to 2" across the area today /2-3
standard deviations above normal/. Meanwhile...experimental layered
RH satellite fields showing upper-level moisture actually being
advected our way from Hurricane Marie over the western Pacific as
southerly flow intensifies ahead of approaching upper trough axis. As
a result...have elected to go with a flash flood watch which will be
in effect from 3z through 15z Thursday. Would not be surprised to see
a few 2-3 inch reports up north and considering 1 and 3 hr flash flood
guidance is extremely low due to earlier heavy rainfall...see no
reason not to have a watch in place.

Shwrs/storms should gradually begin to die down Thursday morning as
front retreats north into Iowa and Nebraska. With area residing in
the warm sector once again...afternoon high temps on Thursday should
rebound back into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of the
region. Shwrs/storms to begin redeveloping once again on Friday as
main upper trough axis begins to approach the west. Will have to watch
how things transpire Thursday morning to see if any additional hydro
headlines will be needed through late week. Main trough and associated
cold front to pass through the area on Friday night into Saturday.
Have offered likely pops across much of the area Friday night before
showing a gradual drying trend through the day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Upper troughing still in place over the region for the second half
of the weekend. This will result in additional chances of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF and GFS
indicate the nocturnal jet strongest over west central Kansas...but
the GFS favors precipitation developing on the nose of the jet and
towards the east and the ECMWF prefers the Dakotas during the night
on Saturday.

By Sunday...Upper level jet digging into the northern or central
Rockies helps induce lee side cyclogenesis. This along with a
thermal ridge axis out ahead of surface feature will turn surface
flow more southerly ushering in additional moisture. Too early to
say how much capping we will have during the day...so keeping PoPs
at slight chance through the day on Sunday is reasonable. In
addition...temperatures will creep back up into the upper
80s...especially if we have decent sunshine.

Sunday night into Monday...finally will see surface front into
northwest of CWA and better chances of rain once again in northern
half of Missouri and Kansas. Decent temperature gradient with lower
80s north of the Missouri River and around 90F in the southern zones
for Monday and Tuesday. Depending on where the front stalls on
Tuesday...we may see additional heavy precipitation in the area
through mid week.  Models diverge some with GFS bringing the front
back as a warm front during the day on Wednesday...while the ECMWF
pushes the precipitation down into Arkansas.  Either way...most of
the extended forecast will have better chances of precipitation than
we have seen south of the Missouri River over the last couple of
weeks. Temperatures should be down from the last several days as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals in Kansas City for the
next 24 hours. Farther north thunderstorms will affect the northwest
corner of Missouri early Thursday morning. This may impact the KSTJ
terminal, hence VCTS and a TEMPO for thunderstorms early Thursday
morning. Storms are not expected to track far enough south to effect
Kansas City. Otherwise, east winds will veer to the south through
Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272328
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Turned out to be a fairly busy day as heavy rains impacted portions
of northwest Missouri overnight into the daylight hours. In
fact...gage and local COOP reports indicted close to 5" of new rain
across Atchison County, MO...with even higher amounts likely due to
continued rainfall through early afternoon. Concerns continue to rise
this afternoon for another heavy rainfall event tonight...but we/ll
address those concerns a little later.

Local radar showing weak convection across southeastern portions of
the fcst area this afternoon...as redeveloping southerly flow begins to
ascend the convectively reinforced stalled front to our south. Though
severe is not expected at this time...a strong wind gust to two
cannot be ruled out before activity decreases with loss of daytime
heating early tonight.

Moving on to the overnight...concerns quickly shift to possible heavy
rainfall event as large scale trough drops from the central Rockies
into the high Plains. As this occurs...fcst models in excellent
agreement that a leeside low will track northeast through the central
Plains which will result in gradual northward movement of the
stalled front as a southerly LLJ of 30-35 kts strengthens over time.
Models in recent days have had a difficult time in determining where
the heaviest QPF axis would occur...and today/s model suite is no
different as the GFS and high-res ARW and NMM members maintain the
furthest southward position /i.e. over NW MO/. Considering this
morning/s outflow essentially kept the front in place much of the day
today...forecaster consensus amongst WPC and several surrounding WFOs
has been to follow the further southward position. As a
result...portions of our area will be under the gun once again for
renewed convection and heavy rainfall as we progress through the
overnight period tonight into Thursday morning.

As a possible clue...Blended TPW and Percent of Normal satellite
products showing PWAT values close to 2" across the area today /2-3
standard deviations above normal/. Meanwhile...experimental layered
RH satellite fields showing upper-level moisture actually being
advected our way from Hurricane Marie over the western Pacific as
southerly flow intensifies ahead of approaching upper trough axis. As
a result...have elected to go with a flash flood watch which will be
in effect from 3z through 15z Thursday. Would not be surprised to see
a few 2-3 inch reports up north and considering 1 and 3 hr flash flood
guidance is extremely low due to earlier heavy rainfall...see no
reason not to have a watch in place.

Shwrs/storms should gradually begin to die down Thursday morning as
front retreats north into Iowa and Nebraska. With area residing in
the warm sector once again...afternoon high temps on Thursday should
rebound back into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of the
region. Shwrs/storms to begin redeveloping once again on Friday as
main upper trough axis begins to approach the west. Will have to watch
how things transpire Thursday morning to see if any additional hydro
headlines will be needed through late week. Main trough and associated
cold front to pass through the area on Friday night into Saturday.
Have offered likely pops across much of the area Friday night before
showing a gradual drying trend through the day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Upper troughing still in place over the region for the second half
of the weekend. This will result in additional chances of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF and GFS
indicate the nocturnal jet strongest over west central Kansas...but
the GFS favors precipitation developing on the nose of the jet and
towards the east and the ECMWF prefers the Dakotas during the night
on Saturday.

By Sunday...Upper level jet digging into the northern or central
Rockies helps induce lee side cyclogenesis. This along with a
thermal ridge axis out ahead of surface feature will turn surface
flow more southerly ushering in additional moisture. Too early to
say how much capping we will have during the day...so keeping PoPs
at slight chance through the day on Sunday is reasonable. In
addition...temperatures will creep back up into the upper
80s...especially if we have decent sunshine.

Sunday night into Monday...finally will see surface front into
northwest of CWA and better chances of rain once again in northern
half of Missouri and Kansas. Decent temperature gradient with lower
80s north of the Missouri River and around 90F in the southern zones
for Monday and Tuesday. Depending on where the front stalls on
Tuesday...we may see additional heavy precipitation in the area
through mid week.  Models diverge some with GFS bringing the front
back as a warm front during the day on Wednesday...while the ECMWF
pushes the precipitation down into Arkansas.  Either way...most of
the extended forecast will have better chances of precipitation than
we have seen south of the Missouri River over the last couple of
weeks. Temperatures should be down from the last several days as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR conditions are anticipated at all the terminals over the next 24
hours. Only issue expected might be the thunderstorms that are
expected to affect the far northwest corner of Missouri late tonight.
Have VCTS in all the terminals, but have also included a TEMPO for
the KSTJ to highlight the expected timing of storms. Otherwise,
expected to veer form the east to the south Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning FOR MOZ001>006-011>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 272328
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Turned out to be a fairly busy day as heavy rains impacted portions
of northwest Missouri overnight into the daylight hours. In
fact...gage and local COOP reports indicted close to 5" of new rain
across Atchison County, MO...with even higher amounts likely due to
continued rainfall through early afternoon. Concerns continue to rise
this afternoon for another heavy rainfall event tonight...but we/ll
address those concerns a little later.

Local radar showing weak convection across southeastern portions of
the fcst area this afternoon...as redeveloping southerly flow begins to
ascend the convectively reinforced stalled front to our south. Though
severe is not expected at this time...a strong wind gust to two
cannot be ruled out before activity decreases with loss of daytime
heating early tonight.

Moving on to the overnight...concerns quickly shift to possible heavy
rainfall event as large scale trough drops from the central Rockies
into the high Plains. As this occurs...fcst models in excellent
agreement that a leeside low will track northeast through the central
Plains which will result in gradual northward movement of the
stalled front as a southerly LLJ of 30-35 kts strengthens over time.
Models in recent days have had a difficult time in determining where
the heaviest QPF axis would occur...and today/s model suite is no
different as the GFS and high-res ARW and NMM members maintain the
furthest southward position /i.e. over NW MO/. Considering this
morning/s outflow essentially kept the front in place much of the day
today...forecaster consensus amongst WPC and several surrounding WFOs
has been to follow the further southward position. As a
result...portions of our area will be under the gun once again for
renewed convection and heavy rainfall as we progress through the
overnight period tonight into Thursday morning.

As a possible clue...Blended TPW and Percent of Normal satellite
products showing PWAT values close to 2" across the area today /2-3
standard deviations above normal/. Meanwhile...experimental layered
RH satellite fields showing upper-level moisture actually being
advected our way from Hurricane Marie over the western Pacific as
southerly flow intensifies ahead of approaching upper trough axis. As
a result...have elected to go with a flash flood watch which will be
in effect from 3z through 15z Thursday. Would not be surprised to see
a few 2-3 inch reports up north and considering 1 and 3 hr flash flood
guidance is extremely low due to earlier heavy rainfall...see no
reason not to have a watch in place.

Shwrs/storms should gradually begin to die down Thursday morning as
front retreats north into Iowa and Nebraska. With area residing in
the warm sector once again...afternoon high temps on Thursday should
rebound back into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of the
region. Shwrs/storms to begin redeveloping once again on Friday as
main upper trough axis begins to approach the west. Will have to watch
how things transpire Thursday morning to see if any additional hydro
headlines will be needed through late week. Main trough and associated
cold front to pass through the area on Friday night into Saturday.
Have offered likely pops across much of the area Friday night before
showing a gradual drying trend through the day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Upper troughing still in place over the region for the second half
of the weekend. This will result in additional chances of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF and GFS
indicate the nocturnal jet strongest over west central Kansas...but
the GFS favors precipitation developing on the nose of the jet and
towards the east and the ECMWF prefers the Dakotas during the night
on Saturday.

By Sunday...Upper level jet digging into the northern or central
Rockies helps induce lee side cyclogenesis. This along with a
thermal ridge axis out ahead of surface feature will turn surface
flow more southerly ushering in additional moisture. Too early to
say how much capping we will have during the day...so keeping PoPs
at slight chance through the day on Sunday is reasonable. In
addition...temperatures will creep back up into the upper
80s...especially if we have decent sunshine.

Sunday night into Monday...finally will see surface front into
northwest of CWA and better chances of rain once again in northern
half of Missouri and Kansas. Decent temperature gradient with lower
80s north of the Missouri River and around 90F in the southern zones
for Monday and Tuesday. Depending on where the front stalls on
Tuesday...we may see additional heavy precipitation in the area
through mid week.  Models diverge some with GFS bringing the front
back as a warm front during the day on Wednesday...while the ECMWF
pushes the precipitation down into Arkansas.  Either way...most of
the extended forecast will have better chances of precipitation than
we have seen south of the Missouri River over the last couple of
weeks. Temperatures should be down from the last several days as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR conditions are anticipated at all the terminals over the next 24
hours. Only issue expected might be the thunderstorms that are
expected to affect the far northwest corner of Missouri late tonight.
Have VCTS in all the terminals, but have also included a TEMPO for
the KSTJ to highlight the expected timing of storms. Otherwise,
expected to veer form the east to the south Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning FOR MOZ001>006-011>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Turned out to be a fairly busy day as heavy rains impacted portions
of northwest Missouri overnight into the daylight hours. In
fact...gage and local COOP reports indicted close to 5" of new rain
across Atchison County, MO...with even higher amounts likely due to
continued rainfall through early afternoon. Concerns continue to rise
this afternoon for another heavy rainfall event tonight...but we/ll
address those concerns a little later.

Local radar showing weak convection across southeastern portions of
the fcst area this afternoon...as redeveloping southerly flow begins to
ascend the convectively reinforced stalled front to our south. Though
severe is not expected at this time...a strong wind gust to two
cannot be ruled out before activity decreases with loss of daytime
heating early tonight.

Moving on to the overnight...concerns quickly shift to possible heavy
rainfall event as large scale trough drops from the central Rockies
into the high Plains. As this occurs...fcst models in excellent
agreement that a leeside low will track northeast through the central
Plains which will result in gradual northward movement of the
stalled front as a southerly LLJ of 30-35 kts strengthens over time.
Models in recent days have had a difficult time in determining where
the heaviest QPF axis would occur...and today/s model suite is no
different as the GFS and high-res ARW and NMM members maintain the
furthest southward position /i.e. over NW MO/. Considering this
morning/s outflow essentially kept the front in place much of the day
today...forecaster consensus amongst WPC and several surrounding WFOs
has been to follow the further southward position. As a
result...portions of our area will be under the gun once again for
renewed convection and heavy rainfall as we progress through the
overnight period tonight into Thursday morning.

As a possible clue...Blended TPW and Percent of Normal satellite
products showing PWAT values close to 2" across the area today /2-3
standard deviations above normal/. Meanwhile...experimental layered
RH satellite fields showing upper-level moisture actually being
advected our way from Hurricane Marie over the western Pacific as
southerly flow intensifies ahead of approaching upper trough axis. As
a result...have elected to go with a flash flood watch which will be
in effect from 3z through 15z Thursday. Would not be surprised to see
a few 2-3 inch reports up north and considering 1 and 3 hr flash flood
guidance is extremely low due to earlier heavy rainfall...see no
reason not to have a watch in place.

Shwrs/storms should gradually begin to die down Thursday morning as
front retreats north into Iowa and Nebraska. With area residing in
the warm sector once again...afternoon high temps on Thursday should
rebound back into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of the
region. Shwrs/storms to begin redeveloping once again on Friday as
main upper trough axis begins to approach the west. Will have to watch
how things transpire Thursday morning to see if any additional hydro
headlines will be needed through late week. Main trough and associated
cold front to pass through the area on Friday night into Saturday.
Have offered likely pops across much of the area Friday night before
showing a gradual drying trend through the day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Upper troughing still in place over the region for the second half
of the weekend. This will result in additional chances of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF and GFS
indicate the nocturnal jet strongest over west central Kansas...but
the GFS favors precipitation developing on the nose of the jet and
towards the east and the ECMWF prefers the Dakotas during the night
on Saturday.

By Sunday...Upper level jet digging into the northern or central
Rockies helps induce lee side cyclogenesis. This along with a
thermal ridge axis out ahead of surface feature will turn surface
flow more southerly ushering in additional moisture. Too early to
say how much capping we will have during the day...so keeping PoPs
at slight chance through the day on Sunday is reasonable. In
addition...temperatures will creep back up into the upper
80s...especially if we have decent sunshine.

Sunday night into Monday...finally will see surface front into
northwest of CWA and better chances of rain once again in northern
half of Missouri and Kansas. Decent temperature gradient with lower
80s north of the Missouri River and around 90F in the southern zones
for Monday and Tuesday. Depending on where the front stalls on
Tuesday...we may see additional heavy precipitation in the area
through mid week.  Models diverge some with GFS bringing the front
back as a warm front during the day on Wednesday...while the ECMWF
pushes the precipitation down into Arkansas.  Either way...most of
the extended forecast will have better chances of precipitation than
we have seen south of the Missouri River over the last couple of
weeks. Temperatures should be down from the last several days as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Ongoing shwr/storm activity now lifting northeast of area terminals
as southerly flow reestablishes itself aloft. Overall...current fcst
calls for dry conditions this afternoon as main outflow boundary
from this morning/s convection remains south.
Overnight...shwrs/storms expected to redevelop after 3z as low-level
strengthening and stalled front to our south begins lifting north. For
now...have offered a VCTS mention at all terminals starting between
2/3z...with a tempo TSRA mention at STJ...which stands the best
chance at realizing impacts from developing overnight convection.
Conditions should improve after sunrise as front retreats north.
Weak easterly winds between 5-10 kts expected through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning FOR MOZ001>006-011>015.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     FOR MOZ001>006-011>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 272109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Turned out to be a fairly busy day as heavy rains impacted portions
of northwest Missouri overnight into the daylight hours. In
fact...gage and local COOP reports indicted close to 5" of new rain
across Atchison County, MO...with even higher amounts likely due to
continued rainfall through early afternoon. Concerns continue to rise
this afternoon for another heavy rainfall event tonight...but we/ll
address those concerns a little later.

Local radar showing weak convection across southeastern portions of
the fcst area this afternoon...as redeveloping southerly flow begins to
ascend the convectively reinforced stalled front to our south. Though
severe is not expected at this time...a strong wind gust to two
cannot be ruled out before activity decreases with loss of daytime
heating early tonight.

Moving on to the overnight...concerns quickly shift to possible heavy
rainfall event as large scale trough drops from the central Rockies
into the high Plains. As this occurs...fcst models in excellent
agreement that a leeside low will track northeast through the central
Plains which will result in gradual northward movement of the
stalled front as a southerly LLJ of 30-35 kts strengthens over time.
Models in recent days have had a difficult time in determining where
the heaviest QPF axis would occur...and today/s model suite is no
different as the GFS and high-res ARW and NMM members maintain the
furthest southward position /i.e. over NW MO/. Considering this
morning/s outflow essentially kept the front in place much of the day
today...forecaster consensus amongst WPC and several surrounding WFOs
has been to follow the further southward position. As a
result...portions of our area will be under the gun once again for
renewed convection and heavy rainfall as we progress through the
overnight period tonight into Thursday morning.

As a possible clue...Blended TPW and Percent of Normal satellite
products showing PWAT values close to 2" across the area today /2-3
standard deviations above normal/. Meanwhile...experimental layered
RH satellite fields showing upper-level moisture actually being
advected our way from Hurricane Marie over the western Pacific as
southerly flow intensifies ahead of approaching upper trough axis. As
a result...have elected to go with a flash flood watch which will be
in effect from 3z through 15z Thursday. Would not be surprised to see
a few 2-3 inch reports up north and considering 1 and 3 hr flash flood
guidance is extremely low due to earlier heavy rainfall...see no
reason not to have a watch in place.

Shwrs/storms should gradually begin to die down Thursday morning as
front retreats north into Iowa and Nebraska. With area residing in
the warm sector once again...afternoon high temps on Thursday should
rebound back into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of the
region. Shwrs/storms to begin redeveloping once again on Friday as
main upper trough axis begins to approach the west. Will have to watch
how things transpire Thursday morning to see if any additional hydro
headlines will be needed through late week. Main trough and associated
cold front to pass through the area on Friday night into Saturday.
Have offered likely pops across much of the area Friday night before
showing a gradual drying trend through the day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Upper troughing still in place over the region for the second half
of the weekend. This will result in additional chances of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF and GFS
indicate the nocturnal jet strongest over west central Kansas...but
the GFS favors precipitation developing on the nose of the jet and
towards the east and the ECMWF prefers the Dakotas during the night
on Saturday.

By Sunday...Upper level jet digging into the northern or central
Rockies helps induce lee side cyclogenesis. This along with a
thermal ridge axis out ahead of surface feature will turn surface
flow more southerly ushering in additional moisture. Too early to
say how much capping we will have during the day...so keeping PoPs
at slight chance through the day on Sunday is reasonable. In
addition...temperatures will creep back up into the upper
80s...especially if we have decent sunshine.

Sunday night into Monday...finally will see surface front into
northwest of CWA and better chances of rain once again in northern
half of Missouri and Kansas. Decent temperature gradient with lower
80s north of the Missouri River and around 90F in the southern zones
for Monday and Tuesday. Depending on where the front stalls on
Tuesday...we may see additional heavy precipitation in the area
through mid week.  Models diverge some with GFS bringing the front
back as a warm front during the day on Wednesday...while the ECMWF
pushes the precipitation down into Arkansas.  Either way...most of
the extended forecast will have better chances of precipitation than
we have seen south of the Missouri River over the last couple of
weeks. Temperatures should be down from the last several days as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Ongoing shwr/storm activity now lifting northeast of area terminals
as southerly flow reestablishes itself aloft. Overall...current fcst
calls for dry conditions this afternoon as main outflow boundary
from this morning/s convection remains south.
Overnight...shwrs/storms expected to redevelop after 3z as low-level
strengthening and stalled front to our south begins lifting north. For
now...have offered a VCTS mention at all terminals starting between
2/3z...with a tempo TSRA mention at STJ...which stands the best
chance at realizing impacts from developing overnight convection.
Conditions should improve after sunrise as front retreats north.
Weak easterly winds between 5-10 kts expected through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning FOR MOZ001>006-011>015.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     FOR MOZ001>006-011>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Adolphson
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271724
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1224 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Radar showing ongoing convection across northern
Missouri...with a secondary round inbound from northeast Kansas.
Meanwhile...outflow from this morning/s convection continues to race
south of the metro with decent northerly winds (gusts in the low 20
kt range) found in its wake. As alluded to below...very complicated
fcst today as models continue to struggle with convective trends.
That said...have increased pops south into the KC metro this morning
to account for activity across northeastern KS which continues
tracking east. Fairly efficient rainfall this morning thanks to PWAT
values close to 2" (validated on TOP and OMA 12 RAOBs). Concerns
heading into tonight will be for the potential for redeveloping heavy
rain as stalled front begins to lift north as leeside cyclogenesis
takes shape across the Colorado and Kansas High Plains. A modest low-
level jet feeding into the boundary coupled with a few passing
shortwaves aloft will likely support an active radar scope during the
early morning hrs. Main questions are just how far east will this
activity get...and whether any precip hits areas that received heavy
rain this morning /4+ inches in Atchison Co. MO/. May need to
consider a flash flood watch for portions of our northwestern zones
later today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Challenging forecast on tap for today mainly in regards to
precipitation chances. Early this morning...a stationary front is
analyzed from Springfield, Illinois to Sedalia to south of Topeka. A
modest 20-25KT southwesterly LLJ has develop across central Kansas
and is overriding this stationary front allowing elevated convection
to develop across southwestern Iowa through extreme northwestern
Missouri and back into northern Kansas. This may allow for training
for precipitation across northwestern Missouri this morning and with
PWAT values near 1.75" precipitation may be heavy. These storm are
progged to move eastward across northern Missouri this morning. This
afternoon however, is more nebulous as some operational models
(GFS/EC) play the stationary front as the focus for afternoon
convection. However, with little convergence to speak of this
solution is not preferred. The 00Z NAM is more focused on an area of
isentropic ascent along the 310K surface sparking convection over
the KC Metro late this morning and then moving precipitation sewd
across the CWA this afternoon. Hi-res models are pointing toward
pop-up type convection this afternoon south of the boundary in the
warm sector. Also, it develops additional convection across
northwestern Missouri later this afternoon and evening in response
to better upper level support in the form of a lead shortwave
ejecting out from the main upper trough back across the Great Basin.
It is this solution that is preferred an as such have higher POPs
for today across the northern CWA to account for morning convection
and additional convective development this afternoon. Also have
slight POPs further south to depict afternoon pop-up convection.
Cloud cover and height falls later in the day especially across the
north will lead to highs in the lower 80s to the north and to the
lower 90s across the south.

Also, during the day today, the upper level trough over the Great
Basin will move eastward into the Eastern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis
will develop across the western high Plains and a surface low will
develop and begin to move northeastward during the evening. This
will help pull the surface boundary northward across the forecast
area. Another nocturnal LLJ will develop albeit west of the area.
Thunderstorms are again progged to develop and move into the
northern portion of the CWA north of the front...so how far south
precipitation makes it will hinge much on the frontal position.
Consequently, have chance POPs across the northern CWA sloping to
slights further south.

Outside of morning convection Thursday...it appears conditions will
remain dry as the area should be firmly in the capped warm sector.
this will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Thursday night the aforementioned upper level trough moves into the
central Plains forcing a cold front into eastern Kansas. This will
allow thunderstorms to move into the western CWA Thursday night. The
front will then move slowly across the area Friday and Friday night
as the upper level trough slows and weakens as it moves into the
eastern Plains. Highs Friday will be in the 80s. The upper level
trough finally moves through on Saturday continuing thunderstorm
chances.

For the extended period...Sunday looks to be the dry day of the
holiday weekend in the wake of the upper level system. Expect highs
in the 80s. Models are in agreement that on Monday an upper level
trough will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area. Where
they are different is in the strength of the and placement of the
trough. The EC is much stronger and further north than the GFS. Both
push a cold front into the area Monday however, the EC pushes it
through the area by Tuesday night whereas the GFS which depicts a
much weaker and flatter trough stalls the front across the CWA. This
front then becomes the focus for a prolong period of precipitation.
As such have opted to keep the ALLBLEND solution which keeps chance
POPs over the area from Monday through Tuesday and slight chance
POPs into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Ongoing shwr/storm activity now lifting northeast of area terminals
as southerly flow reestablishes itself aloft. Overall...current fcst
calls for dry conditions this afternoon as main outflow boundary
from this morning/s convection remains south.
Overnight...shwrs/storms expected to redevelop after 3z as low-level
strengthening and stalled front to our south begins lifting north. For
now...have offered a VCTS mention at all terminals starting between
2/3z...with a tempo TSRA mention at STJ...which stands the best
chance at realizing impacts from developing overnight convection.
Conditions should improve after sunrise as front retreats north.
Weak easterly winds between 5-10 kts expected through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32












000
FXUS63 KEAX 271724
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1224 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Radar showing ongoing convection across northern
Missouri...with a secondary round inbound from northeast Kansas.
Meanwhile...outflow from this morning/s convection continues to race
south of the metro with decent northerly winds (gusts in the low 20
kt range) found in its wake. As alluded to below...very complicated
fcst today as models continue to struggle with convective trends.
That said...have increased pops south into the KC metro this morning
to account for activity across northeastern KS which continues
tracking east. Fairly efficient rainfall this morning thanks to PWAT
values close to 2" (validated on TOP and OMA 12 RAOBs). Concerns
heading into tonight will be for the potential for redeveloping heavy
rain as stalled front begins to lift north as leeside cyclogenesis
takes shape across the Colorado and Kansas High Plains. A modest low-
level jet feeding into the boundary coupled with a few passing
shortwaves aloft will likely support an active radar scope during the
early morning hrs. Main questions are just how far east will this
activity get...and whether any precip hits areas that received heavy
rain this morning /4+ inches in Atchison Co. MO/. May need to
consider a flash flood watch for portions of our northwestern zones
later today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Challenging forecast on tap for today mainly in regards to
precipitation chances. Early this morning...a stationary front is
analyzed from Springfield, Illinois to Sedalia to south of Topeka. A
modest 20-25KT southwesterly LLJ has develop across central Kansas
and is overriding this stationary front allowing elevated convection
to develop across southwestern Iowa through extreme northwestern
Missouri and back into northern Kansas. This may allow for training
for precipitation across northwestern Missouri this morning and with
PWAT values near 1.75" precipitation may be heavy. These storm are
progged to move eastward across northern Missouri this morning. This
afternoon however, is more nebulous as some operational models
(GFS/EC) play the stationary front as the focus for afternoon
convection. However, with little convergence to speak of this
solution is not preferred. The 00Z NAM is more focused on an area of
isentropic ascent along the 310K surface sparking convection over
the KC Metro late this morning and then moving precipitation sewd
across the CWA this afternoon. Hi-res models are pointing toward
pop-up type convection this afternoon south of the boundary in the
warm sector. Also, it develops additional convection across
northwestern Missouri later this afternoon and evening in response
to better upper level support in the form of a lead shortwave
ejecting out from the main upper trough back across the Great Basin.
It is this solution that is preferred an as such have higher POPs
for today across the northern CWA to account for morning convection
and additional convective development this afternoon. Also have
slight POPs further south to depict afternoon pop-up convection.
Cloud cover and height falls later in the day especially across the
north will lead to highs in the lower 80s to the north and to the
lower 90s across the south.

Also, during the day today, the upper level trough over the Great
Basin will move eastward into the Eastern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis
will develop across the western high Plains and a surface low will
develop and begin to move northeastward during the evening. This
will help pull the surface boundary northward across the forecast
area. Another nocturnal LLJ will develop albeit west of the area.
Thunderstorms are again progged to develop and move into the
northern portion of the CWA north of the front...so how far south
precipitation makes it will hinge much on the frontal position.
Consequently, have chance POPs across the northern CWA sloping to
slights further south.

Outside of morning convection Thursday...it appears conditions will
remain dry as the area should be firmly in the capped warm sector.
this will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Thursday night the aforementioned upper level trough moves into the
central Plains forcing a cold front into eastern Kansas. This will
allow thunderstorms to move into the western CWA Thursday night. The
front will then move slowly across the area Friday and Friday night
as the upper level trough slows and weakens as it moves into the
eastern Plains. Highs Friday will be in the 80s. The upper level
trough finally moves through on Saturday continuing thunderstorm
chances.

For the extended period...Sunday looks to be the dry day of the
holiday weekend in the wake of the upper level system. Expect highs
in the 80s. Models are in agreement that on Monday an upper level
trough will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area. Where
they are different is in the strength of the and placement of the
trough. The EC is much stronger and further north than the GFS. Both
push a cold front into the area Monday however, the EC pushes it
through the area by Tuesday night whereas the GFS which depicts a
much weaker and flatter trough stalls the front across the CWA. This
front then becomes the focus for a prolong period of precipitation.
As such have opted to keep the ALLBLEND solution which keeps chance
POPs over the area from Monday through Tuesday and slight chance
POPs into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Ongoing shwr/storm activity now lifting northeast of area terminals
as southerly flow reestablishes itself aloft. Overall...current fcst
calls for dry conditions this afternoon as main outflow boundary
from this morning/s convection remains south.
Overnight...shwrs/storms expected to redevelop after 3z as low-level
strengthening and stalled front to our south begins lifting north. For
now...have offered a VCTS mention at all terminals starting between
2/3z...with a tempo TSRA mention at STJ...which stands the best
chance at realizing impacts from developing overnight convection.
Conditions should improve after sunrise as front retreats north.
Weak easterly winds between 5-10 kts expected through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32











000
FXUS63 KEAX 271400
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
900 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Radar showing ongoing convection across northern
Missouri...with a secondary round inbound from northeast Kansas.
Meanwhile...outflow from this morning/s convection continues to race
south of the metro with decent northerly winds (gusts in the low 20
kt range) found in its wake. As alluded to below...very complicated
fcst today as models continue to struggle with convective trends.
That said...have increased pops south into the KC metro this morning
to account for activity across northeastern KS which continues
tracking east. Fairly efficient rainfall this morning thanks to PWAT
values close to 2" (validated on TOP and OMA 12 RAOBs). Concerns
heading into tonight will be for the potential for redeveloping heavy
rain as stalled front begins to lift north as leeside cyclogenesis
takes shape across the Colorado and Kansas High Plains. A modest low-
level jet feeding into the boundary coupled with a few passing
shortwaves aloft will likely support an active radar scope during the
early morning hrs. Main questions are just how far east will this
activity get...and whether any precip hits areas that received heavy
rain this morning /4+ inches in Atchison Co. MO/. May need to
consider a flash flood watch for portions of our northwestern zones
later today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Challenging forecast on tap for today mainly in regards to
precipitation chances. Early this morning...a stationary front is
analyzed from Springfield, Illinois to Sedalia to south of Topeka. A
modest 20-25KT southwesterly LLJ has develop across central Kansas
and is overriding this stationary front allowing elevated convection
to develop across southwestern Iowa through extreme northwestern
Missouri and back into northern Kansas. This may allow for training
for precipitation across northwestern Missouri this morning and with
PWAT values near 1.75" precipitation may be heavy. These storm are
progged to move eastward across northern Missouri this morning. This
afternoon however, is more nebulous as some operational models
(GFS/EC) play the stationary front as the focus for afternoon
convection. However, with little convergence to speak of this
solution is not preferred. The 00Z NAM is more focused on an area of
isentropic ascent along the 310K surface sparking convection over
the KC Metro late this morning and then moving precipitation sewd
across the CWA this afternoon. Hi-res models are pointing toward
pop-up type convection this afternoon south of the boundary in the
warm sector. Also, it develops additional convection across
northwestern Missouri later this afternoon and evening in response
to better upper level support in the form of a lead shortwave
ejecting out from the main upper trough back across the Great Basin.
It is this solution that is preferred an as such have higher POPs
for today across the northern CWA to account for morning convection
and additional convective development this afternoon. Also have
slight POPs further south to depict afternoon pop-up convection.
Cloud cover and height falls later in the day especially across the
north will lead to highs in the lower 80s to the north and to the
lower 90s across the south.

Also, during the day today, the upper level trough over the Great
Basin will move eastward into the Eastern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis
will develop across the western high Plains and a surface low will
develop and begin to move northeastward during the evening. This
will help pull the surface boundary northward across the forecast
area. Another nocturnal LLJ will develop albeit west of the area.
Thunderstorms are again progged to develop and move into the
northern portion of the CWA north of the front...so how far south
precipitation makes it will hinge much on the frontal position.
Consequently, have chance POPs across the northern CWA sloping to
slights further south.

Outside of morning convection Thursday...it appears conditions will
remain dry as the area should be firmly in the capped warm sector.
this will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Thursday night the aforementioned upper level trough moves into the
central Plains forcing a cold front into eastern Kansas. This will
allow thunderstorms to move into the western CWA Thursday night. The
front will then move slowly across the area Friday and Friday night
as the upper level trough slows and weakens as it moves into the
eastern Plains. Highs Friday will be in the 80s. The upper level
trough finally moves through on Saturday continuing thunderstorm
chances.

For the extended period...Sunday looks to be the dry day of the
holiday weekend in the wake of the upper level system. Expect highs
in the 80s. Models are in agreement that on Monday an upper level
trough will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area. Where
they are different is in the strength of the and placement of the
trough. The EC is much stronger and further north than the GFS. Both
push a cold front into the area Monday however, the EC pushes it
through the area by Tuesday night whereas the GFS which depicts a
much weaker and flatter trough stalls the front across the CWA. This
front then becomes the focus for a prolong period of precipitation.
As such have opted to keep the ALLBLEND solution which keeps chance
POPs over the area from Monday through Tuesday and slight chance
POPs into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A cluster of thunderstorms developed overnight across northwestern
Missouri. These thunderstorms are moving east and spreading
southward. Thunderstorms will make it into STJ right around TAF
issuance and will affect the terminal through 14Z with MVFR cigs/vis.
Thunderstorms may threaten MCI btn 12Z-13Z but should remain north.
MVFR cigs will cont through most of the morning hours at STJ
otherwise expect bkn mid lvl clouds at MCI and MKC. Scattered cu will
develop over the terminals this afternoon around 5kft but conds
should remain dry although there is the chance for an isolated
thunderstorm possible. Convection should again develop across
northwestern Missouri tonight but should remain north of the TAF
sites. Winds will be generally light out of the SE through the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271400
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
900 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Radar showing ongoing convection across northern
Missouri...with a secondary round inbound from northeast Kansas.
Meanwhile...outflow from this morning/s convection continues to race
south of the metro with decent northerly winds (gusts in the low 20
kt range) found in its wake. As alluded to below...very complicated
fcst today as models continue to struggle with convective trends.
That said...have increased pops south into the KC metro this morning
to account for activity across northeastern KS which continues
tracking east. Fairly efficient rainfall this morning thanks to PWAT
values close to 2" (validated on TOP and OMA 12 RAOBs). Concerns
heading into tonight will be for the potential for redeveloping heavy
rain as stalled front begins to lift north as leeside cyclogenesis
takes shape across the Colorado and Kansas High Plains. A modest low-
level jet feeding into the boundary coupled with a few passing
shortwaves aloft will likely support an active radar scope during the
early morning hrs. Main questions are just how far east will this
activity get...and whether any precip hits areas that received heavy
rain this morning /4+ inches in Atchison Co. MO/. May need to
consider a flash flood watch for portions of our northwestern zones
later today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Challenging forecast on tap for today mainly in regards to
precipitation chances. Early this morning...a stationary front is
analyzed from Springfield, Illinois to Sedalia to south of Topeka. A
modest 20-25KT southwesterly LLJ has develop across central Kansas
and is overriding this stationary front allowing elevated convection
to develop across southwestern Iowa through extreme northwestern
Missouri and back into northern Kansas. This may allow for training
for precipitation across northwestern Missouri this morning and with
PWAT values near 1.75" precipitation may be heavy. These storm are
progged to move eastward across northern Missouri this morning. This
afternoon however, is more nebulous as some operational models
(GFS/EC) play the stationary front as the focus for afternoon
convection. However, with little convergence to speak of this
solution is not preferred. The 00Z NAM is more focused on an area of
isentropic ascent along the 310K surface sparking convection over
the KC Metro late this morning and then moving precipitation sewd
across the CWA this afternoon. Hi-res models are pointing toward
pop-up type convection this afternoon south of the boundary in the
warm sector. Also, it develops additional convection across
northwestern Missouri later this afternoon and evening in response
to better upper level support in the form of a lead shortwave
ejecting out from the main upper trough back across the Great Basin.
It is this solution that is preferred an as such have higher POPs
for today across the northern CWA to account for morning convection
and additional convective development this afternoon. Also have
slight POPs further south to depict afternoon pop-up convection.
Cloud cover and height falls later in the day especially across the
north will lead to highs in the lower 80s to the north and to the
lower 90s across the south.

Also, during the day today, the upper level trough over the Great
Basin will move eastward into the Eastern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis
will develop across the western high Plains and a surface low will
develop and begin to move northeastward during the evening. This
will help pull the surface boundary northward across the forecast
area. Another nocturnal LLJ will develop albeit west of the area.
Thunderstorms are again progged to develop and move into the
northern portion of the CWA north of the front...so how far south
precipitation makes it will hinge much on the frontal position.
Consequently, have chance POPs across the northern CWA sloping to
slights further south.

Outside of morning convection Thursday...it appears conditions will
remain dry as the area should be firmly in the capped warm sector.
this will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Thursday night the aforementioned upper level trough moves into the
central Plains forcing a cold front into eastern Kansas. This will
allow thunderstorms to move into the western CWA Thursday night. The
front will then move slowly across the area Friday and Friday night
as the upper level trough slows and weakens as it moves into the
eastern Plains. Highs Friday will be in the 80s. The upper level
trough finally moves through on Saturday continuing thunderstorm
chances.

For the extended period...Sunday looks to be the dry day of the
holiday weekend in the wake of the upper level system. Expect highs
in the 80s. Models are in agreement that on Monday an upper level
trough will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area. Where
they are different is in the strength of the and placement of the
trough. The EC is much stronger and further north than the GFS. Both
push a cold front into the area Monday however, the EC pushes it
through the area by Tuesday night whereas the GFS which depicts a
much weaker and flatter trough stalls the front across the CWA. This
front then becomes the focus for a prolong period of precipitation.
As such have opted to keep the ALLBLEND solution which keeps chance
POPs over the area from Monday through Tuesday and slight chance
POPs into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A cluster of thunderstorms developed overnight across northwestern
Missouri. These thunderstorms are moving east and spreading
southward. Thunderstorms will make it into STJ right around TAF
issuance and will affect the terminal through 14Z with MVFR cigs/vis.
Thunderstorms may threaten MCI btn 12Z-13Z but should remain north.
MVFR cigs will cont through most of the morning hours at STJ
otherwise expect bkn mid lvl clouds at MCI and MKC. Scattered cu will
develop over the terminals this afternoon around 5kft but conds
should remain dry although there is the chance for an isolated
thunderstorm possible. Convection should again develop across
northwestern Missouri tonight but should remain north of the TAF
sites. Winds will be generally light out of the SE through the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Challenging forecast on tap for today mainly in regards to
precipitation chances. Early this morning...a stationary front is
analyzed from Springfield, Illinois to Sedalia to south of Topeka. A
modest 20-25KT southwesterly LLJ has develop across central Kansas
and is overriding this stationary front allowing elevated convection
to develop across southwestern Iowa through extreme northwestern
Missouri and back into northern Kansas. This may allow for training
for precipitation across northwestern Missouri this morning and with
PWAT values near 1.75" precipitation may be heavy. These storm are
progged to move eastward across northern Missouri this morning. This
afternoon however, is more nebulous as some operational models
(GFS/EC) play the stationary front as the focus for afternoon
convection. However, with little convergence to speak of this
solution is not preferred. The 00Z NAM is more focused on an area of
isentropic ascent along the 310K surface sparking convection over
the KC Metro late this morning and then moving precipitation sewd
across the CWA this afternoon. Hi-res models are pointing toward
pop-up type convection this afternoon south of the boundary in the
warm sector. Also, it develops additional convection across
northwestern Missouri later this afternoon and evening in response
to better upper level support in the form of a lead shortwave
ejecting out from the main upper trough back across the Great Basin.
It is this solution that is preferred an as such have higher POPs
for today across the northern CWA to account for morning convection
and additional convective development this afternoon. Also have
slight POPs further south to depict afternoon pop-up convection.
Cloud cover and height falls later in the day especially across the
north will lead to highs in the lower 80s to the north and to the
lower 90s across the south.

Also, during the day today, the upper level trough over the Great
Basin will move eastward into the Eastern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis
will develop across the western high Plains and a surface low will
develop and begin to move northeastward during the evening. This
will help pull the surface boundary northward across the forecast
area. Another nocturnal LLJ will develop albeit west of the area.
Thunderstorms are again progged to develop and move into the
northern portion of the CWA north of the front...so how far south
precipitation makes it will hinge much on the frontal position.
Consequently, have chance POPs across the northern CWA sloping to
slights further south.

Outside of morning convection Thursday...it appears conditions will
remain dry as the area should be firmly in the capped warm sector.
this will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Thursday night the aforementioned upper level trough moves into the
central Plains forcing a cold front into eastern Kansas. This will
allow thunderstorms to move into the western CWA Thursday night. The
front will then move slowly across the area Friday and Friday night
as the upper level trough slows and weakens as it moves into the
eastern Plains. Highs Friday will be in the 80s. The upper level
trough finally moves through on Saturday continuing thunderstorm
chances.

For the extended period...Sunday looks to be the dry day of the
holiday weekend in the wake of the upper level system. Expect highs
in the 80s. Models are in agreement that on Monday an upper level
trough will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area. Where
they are different is in the strength of the and placement of the
trough. The EC is much stronger and further north than the GFS. Both
push a cold front into the area Monday however, the EC pushes it
through the area by Tuesday night whereas the GFS which depicts a
much weaker and flatter trough stalls the front across the CWA. This
front then becomes the focus for a prolong period of precipitation.
As such have opted to keep the ALLBLEND solution which keeps chance
POPs over the area from Monday through Tuesday and slight chance
POPs into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A cluster of thunderstorms developed overnight across northwestern
Missouri. These thunderstorms are moving east and spreading
southward. Thunderstorms will make it into STJ right around TAF
issuance and will affect the terminal through 14Z with MVFR cigs/vis.
Thunderstorms may threaten MCI btn 12Z-13Z but should remain north.
MVFR cigs will cont through most of the morning hours at STJ
otherwise expect bkn mid lvl clouds at MCI and MKC. Scattered cu will
develop over the terminals this afternoon around 5kft but conds
should remain dry although there is the chance for an isolated
thunderstorm possible. Convection should again develop across
northwestern Missouri tonight but should remain north of the TAF
sites. Winds will be generally light out of the SE through the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Challenging forecast on tap for today mainly in regards to
precipitation chances. Early this morning...a stationary front is
analyzed from Springfield, Illinois to Sedalia to south of Topeka. A
modest 20-25KT southwesterly LLJ has develop across central Kansas
and is overriding this stationary front allowing elevated convection
to develop across southwestern Iowa through extreme northwestern
Missouri and back into northern Kansas. This may allow for training
for precipitation across northwestern Missouri this morning and with
PWAT values near 1.75" precipitation may be heavy. These storm are
progged to move eastward across northern Missouri this morning. This
afternoon however, is more nebulous as some operational models
(GFS/EC) play the stationary front as the focus for afternoon
convection. However, with little convergence to speak of this
solution is not preferred. The 00Z NAM is more focused on an area of
isentropic ascent along the 310K surface sparking convection over
the KC Metro late this morning and then moving precipitation sewd
across the CWA this afternoon. Hi-res models are pointing toward
pop-up type convection this afternoon south of the boundary in the
warm sector. Also, it develops additional convection across
northwestern Missouri later this afternoon and evening in response
to better upper level support in the form of a lead shortwave
ejecting out from the main upper trough back across the Great Basin.
It is this solution that is preferred an as such have higher POPs
for today across the northern CWA to account for morning convection
and additional convective development this afternoon. Also have
slight POPs further south to depict afternoon pop-up convection.
Cloud cover and height falls later in the day especially across the
north will lead to highs in the lower 80s to the north and to the
lower 90s across the south.

Also, during the day today, the upper level trough over the Great
Basin will move eastward into the Eastern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis
will develop across the western high Plains and a surface low will
develop and begin to move northeastward during the evening. This
will help pull the surface boundary northward across the forecast
area. Another nocturnal LLJ will develop albeit west of the area.
Thunderstorms are again progged to develop and move into the
northern portion of the CWA north of the front...so how far south
precipitation makes it will hinge much on the frontal position.
Consequently, have chance POPs across the northern CWA sloping to
slights further south.

Outside of morning convection Thursday...it appears conditions will
remain dry as the area should be firmly in the capped warm sector.
this will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Thursday night the aforementioned upper level trough moves into the
central Plains forcing a cold front into eastern Kansas. This will
allow thunderstorms to move into the western CWA Thursday night. The
front will then move slowly across the area Friday and Friday night
as the upper level trough slows and weakens as it moves into the
eastern Plains. Highs Friday will be in the 80s. The upper level
trough finally moves through on Saturday continuing thunderstorm
chances.

For the extended period...Sunday looks to be the dry day of the
holiday weekend in the wake of the upper level system. Expect highs
in the 80s. Models are in agreement that on Monday an upper level
trough will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area. Where
they are different is in the strength of the and placement of the
trough. The EC is much stronger and further north than the GFS. Both
push a cold front into the area Monday however, the EC pushes it
through the area by Tuesday night whereas the GFS which depicts a
much weaker and flatter trough stalls the front across the CWA. This
front then becomes the focus for a prolong period of precipitation.
As such have opted to keep the ALLBLEND solution which keeps chance
POPs over the area from Monday through Tuesday and slight chance
POPs into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A cluster of thunderstorms developed overnight across northwestern
Missouri. These thunderstorms are moving east and spreading
southward. Thunderstorms will make it into STJ right around TAF
issuance and will affect the terminal through 14Z with MVFR cigs/vis.
Thunderstorms may threaten MCI btn 12Z-13Z but should remain north.
MVFR cigs will cont through most of the morning hours at STJ
otherwise expect bkn mid lvl clouds at MCI and MKC. Scattered cu will
develop over the terminals this afternoon around 5kft but conds
should remain dry although there is the chance for an isolated
thunderstorm possible. Convection should again develop across
northwestern Missouri tonight but should remain north of the TAF
sites. Winds will be generally light out of the SE through the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Challenging forecast on tap for today mainly in regards to
precipitation chances. Early this morning...a stationary front is
analyzed from Springfield, Illinois to Sedalia to south of Topeka. A
modest 20-25KT southwesterly LLJ has develop across central Kansas
and is overriding this stationary front allowing elevated convection
to develop across southwestern Iowa through extreme northwestern
Missouri and back into northern Kansas. This may allow for training
for precipitation across northwestern Missouri this morning and with
PWAT values near 1.75" precipitation may be heavy. These storm are
progged to move eastward across northern Missouri this morning. This
afternoon however, is more nebulous as some operational models
(GFS/EC) play the stationary front as the focus for afternoon
convection. However, with little convergence to speak of this
solution is not preferred. The 00Z NAM is more focused on an area of
isentropic ascent along the 310K surface sparking convection over
the KC Metro late this morning and then moving precipitation sewd
across the CWA this afternoon. Hi-res models are pointing toward
pop-up type convection this afternoon south of the boundary in the
warm sector. Also, it develops additional convection across
northwestern Missouri later this afternoon and evening in response
to better upper level support in the form of a lead shortwave
ejecting out from the main upper trough back across the Great Basin.
It is this solution that is preferred an as such have higher POPs
for today across the northern CWA to account for morning convection
and additional convective development this afternoon. Also have
slight POPs further south to depict afternoon pop-up convection.
Cloud cover and height falls later in the day especially across the
north will lead to highs in the lower 80s to the north and to the
lower 90s across the south.

Also, during the day today, the upper level trough over the Great
Basin will move eastward into the Eastern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis
will develop across the western high Plains and a surface low will
develop and begin to move northeastward during the evening. This
will help pull the surface boundary northward across the forecast
area. Another nocturnal LLJ will develop albeit west of the area.
Thunderstorms are again progged to develop and move into the
northern portion of the CWA north of the front...so how far south
precipitation makes it will hinge much on the frontal position.
Consequently, have chance POPs across the northern CWA sloping to
slights further south.

Outside of morning convection Thursday...it appears conditions will
remain dry as the area should be firmly in the capped warm sector.
this will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Thursday night the aforementioned upper level trough moves into the
central Plains forcing a cold front into eastern Kansas. This will
allow thunderstorms to move into the western CWA Thursday night. The
front will then move slowly across the area Friday and Friday night
as the upper level trough slows and weakens as it moves into the
eastern Plains. Highs Friday will be in the 80s. The upper level
trough finally moves through on Saturday continuing thunderstorm
chances.

For the extended period...Sunday looks to be the dry day of the
holiday weekend in the wake of the upper level system. Expect highs
in the 80s. Models are in agreement that on Monday an upper level
trough will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area. Where
they are different is in the strength of the and placement of the
trough. The EC is much stronger and further north than the GFS. Both
push a cold front into the area Monday however, the EC pushes it
through the area by Tuesday night whereas the GFS which depicts a
much weaker and flatter trough stalls the front across the CWA. This
front then becomes the focus for a prolong period of precipitation.
As such have opted to keep the ALLBLEND solution which keeps chance
POPs over the area from Monday through Tuesday and slight chance
POPs into Tuesday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at the terminals over the next 24
hours. Only issue there might be storms that may develop across far
northwest Missouri early Wednesday morning. Have inserted VCTS for
the KSTJ terminal, but expectations are that activity will stay
farther north. Otherwise, expect east to southeast winds to persist
through the rest of the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Challenging forecast on tap for today mainly in regards to
precipitation chances. Early this morning...a stationary front is
analyzed from Springfield, Illinois to Sedalia to south of Topeka. A
modest 20-25KT southwesterly LLJ has develop across central Kansas
and is overriding this stationary front allowing elevated convection
to develop across southwestern Iowa through extreme northwestern
Missouri and back into northern Kansas. This may allow for training
for precipitation across northwestern Missouri this morning and with
PWAT values near 1.75" precipitation may be heavy. These storm are
progged to move eastward across northern Missouri this morning. This
afternoon however, is more nebulous as some operational models
(GFS/EC) play the stationary front as the focus for afternoon
convection. However, with little convergence to speak of this
solution is not preferred. The 00Z NAM is more focused on an area of
isentropic ascent along the 310K surface sparking convection over
the KC Metro late this morning and then moving precipitation sewd
across the CWA this afternoon. Hi-res models are pointing toward
pop-up type convection this afternoon south of the boundary in the
warm sector. Also, it develops additional convection across
northwestern Missouri later this afternoon and evening in response
to better upper level support in the form of a lead shortwave
ejecting out from the main upper trough back across the Great Basin.
It is this solution that is preferred an as such have higher POPs
for today across the northern CWA to account for morning convection
and additional convective development this afternoon. Also have
slight POPs further south to depict afternoon pop-up convection.
Cloud cover and height falls later in the day especially across the
north will lead to highs in the lower 80s to the north and to the
lower 90s across the south.

Also, during the day today, the upper level trough over the Great
Basin will move eastward into the Eastern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis
will develop across the western high Plains and a surface low will
develop and begin to move northeastward during the evening. This
will help pull the surface boundary northward across the forecast
area. Another nocturnal LLJ will develop albeit west of the area.
Thunderstorms are again progged to develop and move into the
northern portion of the CWA north of the front...so how far south
precipitation makes it will hinge much on the frontal position.
Consequently, have chance POPs across the northern CWA sloping to
slights further south.

Outside of morning convection Thursday...it appears conditions will
remain dry as the area should be firmly in the capped warm sector.
this will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Thursday night the aforementioned upper level trough moves into the
central Plains forcing a cold front into eastern Kansas. This will
allow thunderstorms to move into the western CWA Thursday night. The
front will then move slowly across the area Friday and Friday night
as the upper level trough slows and weakens as it moves into the
eastern Plains. Highs Friday will be in the 80s. The upper level
trough finally moves through on Saturday continuing thunderstorm
chances.

For the extended period...Sunday looks to be the dry day of the
holiday weekend in the wake of the upper level system. Expect highs
in the 80s. Models are in agreement that on Monday an upper level
trough will bring another round of thunderstorms to the area. Where
they are different is in the strength of the and placement of the
trough. The EC is much stronger and further north than the GFS. Both
push a cold front into the area Monday however, the EC pushes it
through the area by Tuesday night whereas the GFS which depicts a
much weaker and flatter trough stalls the front across the CWA. This
front then becomes the focus for a prolong period of precipitation.
As such have opted to keep the ALLBLEND solution which keeps chance
POPs over the area from Monday through Tuesday and slight chance
POPs into Tuesday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at the terminals over the next 24
hours. Only issue there might be storms that may develop across far
northwest Missouri early Wednesday morning. Have inserted VCTS for
the KSTJ terminal, but expectations are that activity will stay
farther north. Otherwise, expect east to southeast winds to persist
through the rest of the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270457
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Water vapor imagery showing sprawling high pressure centered across
the American Southeast this afternoon...all in advance of a long wave
trough now working through the Desert Southwest/Great Basin. Along
the surface...long awaited weak trough/cold front now stalling just
south of the I-70 corridor...with northeast and easterly winds
prevailing in its wake across the greater KC Metro and much of
northern MO/eastern KS. Fortunately...cooler air continues to filter
into the region which has led to lower heat index values than
previous days. Inherited heat advisory to remain in effect through
00z this evening with no plans for additional heat headlines through
the remainder of the week.

Heading into tonight...main focus remains centered just to our north
as fcst models show redeveloping convection as the low-level jet
intensifies and impinges upon main synoptic front to our north. From
this vantage point...heaviest activity expected across southern NE/IA
as LLJ leads to best moisture convergence across these areas.
Regardless...models do indicate activity will work east along the
IA/MO state line during the predawn hrs as shortwave energy tracks
east along the northern periphery of upper ridge axis. For now...have
increased pops into the likely category across across the far
north...while also increasing pops to chc as far south as the
northern Metro. For areas removed from organized precip...tough call
with respect to cloud coverage. With main upper high directly to our
southeast...and with sfc ridging extending south from high pressure
across the upper Miss Rvr Vly...potential exists for develop fog for
areas that remain mostly clear. No mention in the grids at this point
due to uncertainty...but fcst models are making the suggestion none-
the-less.

By tomorrow...early morning activity to gradually track east during
the AM hrs with another warm and humid day expected in its wake.
Main synoptic scale front to remain north of the fcst area during the
day with no real hope of further southward progress as western Great
Lakes high pressure tracks east. Very hard to find any true forcing
mechanism through the day and as a result...have backtracked on pops
across the south and southeast through the afternoon. Highs will be
similar to today...with mid/upper 80s expected up north...while low
to mid 90s dominate further south.

Fcst becomes a tad more interesting Thu into Fri as previously
mentioned upper wave begins to track east into the central/southern
High Plains. As is the case with these types of systems...leeside
cyclogenesis expected to take place with developing low then expected
to track northeast through the conclusion of the short term period.
For now...best chc for developing shwrs/storms looks to arrive
Thursday night into Friday as sfc low approaches and moisture
advection again increases thanks to a straightening low-level jet. Based
on decent model agreement...have elected to increase pops both Thu
night and Friday which should finally allow main synoptic scale front
to sink south across the area. With weak winds aloft...large scale
severe weather is not expected with trough passage...but hopefully
all will benefit from some needed rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper trough will continue to lift eastward through the region on
Saturday allowing for weak ridging to build into the forecast area
Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  There will be some lingering
precipitation chances during the day on Saturday with exiting
system, however Sunday looks to be mainly dry.  H8 temperatures in
the +16C to +18C range over the weekend should translate to surface
temperatures near normal for Saturday and Sunday.

Late on Sunday deepening upper trough over western CONUS should
begin to impact the region allowing for strengthening low-level
southerly flow.  As a result temperatures should return to values
above normal by the early part of next week, but should not be as
warm as we have seen the last several days.  ECMWF and GFS in agreement
indicating strong LLJ nosing into eastern Kansas on Monday morning
and to a lesser degree on Tuesday morning.  With surface boundary in
vicinity slight chance-chance PoPs seem reasonable especially across
northern Missouri on Monday and the rest of the forecast area on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at the terminals over the next 24
hours. Only issue there might be storms that may develop across far
northwest Missouri early Wednesday morning. Have inserted VCTS for
the KSTJ terminal, but expectations are that activity will stay
farther north. Otherwise, expect east to southeast winds to persist
through the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270457
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Water vapor imagery showing sprawling high pressure centered across
the American Southeast this afternoon...all in advance of a long wave
trough now working through the Desert Southwest/Great Basin. Along
the surface...long awaited weak trough/cold front now stalling just
south of the I-70 corridor...with northeast and easterly winds
prevailing in its wake across the greater KC Metro and much of
northern MO/eastern KS. Fortunately...cooler air continues to filter
into the region which has led to lower heat index values than
previous days. Inherited heat advisory to remain in effect through
00z this evening with no plans for additional heat headlines through
the remainder of the week.

Heading into tonight...main focus remains centered just to our north
as fcst models show redeveloping convection as the low-level jet
intensifies and impinges upon main synoptic front to our north. From
this vantage point...heaviest activity expected across southern NE/IA
as LLJ leads to best moisture convergence across these areas.
Regardless...models do indicate activity will work east along the
IA/MO state line during the predawn hrs as shortwave energy tracks
east along the northern periphery of upper ridge axis. For now...have
increased pops into the likely category across across the far
north...while also increasing pops to chc as far south as the
northern Metro. For areas removed from organized precip...tough call
with respect to cloud coverage. With main upper high directly to our
southeast...and with sfc ridging extending south from high pressure
across the upper Miss Rvr Vly...potential exists for develop fog for
areas that remain mostly clear. No mention in the grids at this point
due to uncertainty...but fcst models are making the suggestion none-
the-less.

By tomorrow...early morning activity to gradually track east during
the AM hrs with another warm and humid day expected in its wake.
Main synoptic scale front to remain north of the fcst area during the
day with no real hope of further southward progress as western Great
Lakes high pressure tracks east. Very hard to find any true forcing
mechanism through the day and as a result...have backtracked on pops
across the south and southeast through the afternoon. Highs will be
similar to today...with mid/upper 80s expected up north...while low
to mid 90s dominate further south.

Fcst becomes a tad more interesting Thu into Fri as previously
mentioned upper wave begins to track east into the central/southern
High Plains. As is the case with these types of systems...leeside
cyclogenesis expected to take place with developing low then expected
to track northeast through the conclusion of the short term period.
For now...best chc for developing shwrs/storms looks to arrive
Thursday night into Friday as sfc low approaches and moisture
advection again increases thanks to a straightening low-level jet. Based
on decent model agreement...have elected to increase pops both Thu
night and Friday which should finally allow main synoptic scale front
to sink south across the area. With weak winds aloft...large scale
severe weather is not expected with trough passage...but hopefully
all will benefit from some needed rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper trough will continue to lift eastward through the region on
Saturday allowing for weak ridging to build into the forecast area
Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  There will be some lingering
precipitation chances during the day on Saturday with exiting
system, however Sunday looks to be mainly dry.  H8 temperatures in
the +16C to +18C range over the weekend should translate to surface
temperatures near normal for Saturday and Sunday.

Late on Sunday deepening upper trough over western CONUS should
begin to impact the region allowing for strengthening low-level
southerly flow.  As a result temperatures should return to values
above normal by the early part of next week, but should not be as
warm as we have seen the last several days.  ECMWF and GFS in agreement
indicating strong LLJ nosing into eastern Kansas on Monday morning
and to a lesser degree on Tuesday morning.  With surface boundary in
vicinity slight chance-chance PoPs seem reasonable especially across
northern Missouri on Monday and the rest of the forecast area on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at the terminals over the next 24
hours. Only issue there might be storms that may develop across far
northwest Missouri early Wednesday morning. Have inserted VCTS for
the KSTJ terminal, but expectations are that activity will stay
farther north. Otherwise, expect east to southeast winds to persist
through the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Cutter









000
FXUS63 KEAX 262336
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Water vapor imagery showing sprawling high pressure centered across
the American Southeast this afternoon...all in advance of a long wave
trough now working through the Desert Southwest/Great Basin. Along
the surface...long awaited weak trough/cold front now stalling just
south of the I-70 corridor...with northeast and easterly winds
prevailing in its wake across the greater KC Metro and much of
northern MO/eastern KS. Fortunately...cooler air continues to filter
into the region which has led to lower heat index values than
previous days. Inherited heat advisory to remain in effect through
00z this evening with no plans for additional heat headlines through
the remainder of the week.

Heading into tonight...main focus remains centered just to our north
as fcst models show redeveloping convection as the low-level jet
intensifies and impinges upon main synoptic front to our north. From
this vantage point...heaviest activity expected across southern NE/IA
as LLJ leads to best moisture convergence across these areas.
Regardless...models do indicate activity will work east along the
IA/MO state line during the predawn hrs as shortwave energy tracks
east along the northern periphery of upper ridge axis. For now...have
increased pops into the likely category across across the far
north...while also increasing pops to chc as far south as the
northern Metro. For areas removed from organized precip...tough call
with respect to cloud coverage. With main upper high directly to our
southeast...and with sfc ridging extending south from high pressure
across the upper Miss Rvr Vly...potential exists for develop fog for
areas that remain mostly clear. No mention in the grids at this point
due to uncertainty...but fcst models are making the suggestion none-
the-less.

By tomorrow...early morning activity to gradually track east during
the AM hrs with another warm and humid day expected in its wake.
Main synoptic scale front to remain north of the fcst area during the
day with no real hope of further southward progress as western Great
Lakes high pressure tracks east. Very hard to find any true forcing
mechanism through the day and as a result...have backtracked on pops
across the south and southeast through the afternoon. Highs will be
similar to today...with mid/upper 80s expected up north...while low
to mid 90s dominate further south.

Fcst becomes a tad more interesting Thu into Fri as previously
mentioned upper wave begins to track east into the central/southern
High Plains. As is the case with these types of systems...leeside
cyclogenesis expected to take place with developing low then expected
to track northeast through the conclusion of the short term period.
For now...best chc for developing shwrs/storms looks to arrive
Thursday night into Friday as sfc low approaches and moisture
advection again increases thanks to a straightening low-level jet. Based
on decent model agreement...have elected to increase pops both Thu
night and Friday which should finally allow main synoptic scale front
to sink south across the area. With weak winds aloft...large scale
severe weather is not expected with trough passage...but hopefully
all will benefit from some needed rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper trough will continue to lift eastward through the region on
Saturday allowing for weak ridging to build into the forecast area
Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  There will be some lingering
precipitation chances during the day on Saturday with exiting
system, however Sunday looks to be mainly dry.  H8 temperatures in
the +16C to +18C range over the weekend should translate to surface
temperatures near normal for Saturday and Sunday.

Late on Sunday deepening upper trough over western CONUS should
begin to impact the region allowing for strengthening low-level
southerly flow.  As a result temperatures should return to values
above normal by the early part of next week, but should not be as
warm as we have seen the last several days.  ECMWF and GFS in agreement
indicating strong LLJ nosing into eastern Kansas on Monday morning
and to a lesser degree on Tuesday morning.  With surface boundary in
vicinity slight chance-chance PoPs seem reasonable especially across
northern Missouri on Monday and the rest of the forecast area on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR conditions currently prevail at the terminals, which will likely
continue through much of the night and tomorrow. Only issues to watch
for will be storms that will likely move through far northwest
Missouri tonight and or early Wednesday morning. This evenings
activity in Kansas is currently expected to fizzle as it tries to
move northeast into a more stable airmass, while Wednesday mornings
likely activity should be restricted to the far northwest corner of
Missouri, likely only effecting the KSTJ terminal again. Otherwise,
have kept the MVFR restrictions for radiational fog as mostly clear
skies may prevail south of the storms Wednesday morning allowing a
bit of haze to develop in the early morning hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262336
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Water vapor imagery showing sprawling high pressure centered across
the American Southeast this afternoon...all in advance of a long wave
trough now working through the Desert Southwest/Great Basin. Along
the surface...long awaited weak trough/cold front now stalling just
south of the I-70 corridor...with northeast and easterly winds
prevailing in its wake across the greater KC Metro and much of
northern MO/eastern KS. Fortunately...cooler air continues to filter
into the region which has led to lower heat index values than
previous days. Inherited heat advisory to remain in effect through
00z this evening with no plans for additional heat headlines through
the remainder of the week.

Heading into tonight...main focus remains centered just to our north
as fcst models show redeveloping convection as the low-level jet
intensifies and impinges upon main synoptic front to our north. From
this vantage point...heaviest activity expected across southern NE/IA
as LLJ leads to best moisture convergence across these areas.
Regardless...models do indicate activity will work east along the
IA/MO state line during the predawn hrs as shortwave energy tracks
east along the northern periphery of upper ridge axis. For now...have
increased pops into the likely category across across the far
north...while also increasing pops to chc as far south as the
northern Metro. For areas removed from organized precip...tough call
with respect to cloud coverage. With main upper high directly to our
southeast...and with sfc ridging extending south from high pressure
across the upper Miss Rvr Vly...potential exists for develop fog for
areas that remain mostly clear. No mention in the grids at this point
due to uncertainty...but fcst models are making the suggestion none-
the-less.

By tomorrow...early morning activity to gradually track east during
the AM hrs with another warm and humid day expected in its wake.
Main synoptic scale front to remain north of the fcst area during the
day with no real hope of further southward progress as western Great
Lakes high pressure tracks east. Very hard to find any true forcing
mechanism through the day and as a result...have backtracked on pops
across the south and southeast through the afternoon. Highs will be
similar to today...with mid/upper 80s expected up north...while low
to mid 90s dominate further south.

Fcst becomes a tad more interesting Thu into Fri as previously
mentioned upper wave begins to track east into the central/southern
High Plains. As is the case with these types of systems...leeside
cyclogenesis expected to take place with developing low then expected
to track northeast through the conclusion of the short term period.
For now...best chc for developing shwrs/storms looks to arrive
Thursday night into Friday as sfc low approaches and moisture
advection again increases thanks to a straightening low-level jet. Based
on decent model agreement...have elected to increase pops both Thu
night and Friday which should finally allow main synoptic scale front
to sink south across the area. With weak winds aloft...large scale
severe weather is not expected with trough passage...but hopefully
all will benefit from some needed rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper trough will continue to lift eastward through the region on
Saturday allowing for weak ridging to build into the forecast area
Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  There will be some lingering
precipitation chances during the day on Saturday with exiting
system, however Sunday looks to be mainly dry.  H8 temperatures in
the +16C to +18C range over the weekend should translate to surface
temperatures near normal for Saturday and Sunday.

Late on Sunday deepening upper trough over western CONUS should
begin to impact the region allowing for strengthening low-level
southerly flow.  As a result temperatures should return to values
above normal by the early part of next week, but should not be as
warm as we have seen the last several days.  ECMWF and GFS in agreement
indicating strong LLJ nosing into eastern Kansas on Monday morning
and to a lesser degree on Tuesday morning.  With surface boundary in
vicinity slight chance-chance PoPs seem reasonable especially across
northern Missouri on Monday and the rest of the forecast area on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR conditions currently prevail at the terminals, which will likely
continue through much of the night and tomorrow. Only issues to watch
for will be storms that will likely move through far northwest
Missouri tonight and or early Wednesday morning. This evenings
activity in Kansas is currently expected to fizzle as it tries to
move northeast into a more stable airmass, while Wednesday mornings
likely activity should be restricted to the far northwest corner of
Missouri, likely only effecting the KSTJ terminal again. Otherwise,
have kept the MVFR restrictions for radiational fog as mostly clear
skies may prevail south of the storms Wednesday morning allowing a
bit of haze to develop in the early morning hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262026
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Water vapor imagery showing sprawling high pressure centered across
the American Southeast this afternoon...all in advance of a long wave
trough now working through the Desert Southwest/Great Basin. Along
the surface...long awaited weak trough/cold front now stalling just
south of the I-70 corridor...with northeast and easterly winds
prevailing in its wake across the greater KC Metro and much of
northern MO/eastern KS. Fortunately...cooler air continues to filter
into the region which has led to lower heat index values than
previous days. Inherited heat advisory to remain in effect through
00z this evening with no plans for additional heat headlines through
the remainder of the week.

Heading into tonight...main focus remains centered just to our north
as fcst models show redeveloping convection as the low-level jet
intensifies and impinges upon main synoptic front to our north. From
this vantage point...heaviest activity expected across southern NE/IA
as LLJ leads to best moisture convergence across these areas.
Regardless...models do indicate activity will work east along the
IA/MO state line during the predawn hrs as shortwave energy tracks
east along the northern periphery of upper ridge axis. For now...have
increased pops into the likely category across across the far
north...while also increasing pops to chc as far south as the
northern Metro. For areas removed from organized precip...tough call
with respect to cloud coverage. With main upper high directly to our
southeast...and with sfc ridging extending south from high pressure
across the upper Miss Rvr Vly...potential exists for develop fog for
areas that remain mostly clear. No mention in the grids at this point
due to uncertainty...but fcst models are making the suggestion none-
the-less.

By tomorrow...early morning activity to gradually track east during
the AM hrs with another warm and humid day expected in its wake.
Main synoptic scale front to remain north of the fcst area during the
day with no real hope of further southward progress as western Great
Lakes high pressure tracks east. Very hard to find any true forcing
mechanism through the day and as a result...have backtracked on pops
across the south and southeast through the afternoon. Highs will be
similar to today...with mid/upper 80s expected up north...while low
to mid 90s dominate further south.

Fcst becomes a tad more interesting Thu into Fri as previously
mentioned upper wave begins to track east into the central/southern
High Plains. As is the case with these types of systems...leeside
cyclogenesis expected to take place with developing low then expected
to track northeast through the conclusion of the short term period.
For now...best chc for developing shwrs/storms looks to arrive
Thursday night into Friday as sfc low approaches and moisture
advection again increases thanks to a straightening low-level jet. Based
on decent model agreement...have elected to increase pops both Thu
night and Friday which should finally allow main synoptic scale front
to sink south across the area. With weak winds aloft...large scale
severe weather is not expected with trough passage...but hopefully
all will benefit from some needed rainfall.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper trough will continue to lift eastward through the region on
Saturday allowing for weak ridging to build into the forecast area
Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  There will be some lingering
precipitation chances during the day on Saturday with exiting
system, however Sunday looks to be mainly dry.  H8 temperatures in
the +16C to +18C range over the weekend should translate to surface
temperatures near normal for Saturday and Sunday.

Late on Sunday deepening upper trough over western CONUS should
begin to impact the region allowing for strengthening low-level
southerly flow.  As a result temperatures should return to values
above normal by the early part of next week, but should not be as
warm as we have seen the last several days.  ECMWF and GFS in agreement
indicating strong LLJ nosing into eastern Kansas on Monday morning
and to a lesser degree on Tuesday morning.  With surface boundary in
vicinity slight chance-chance PoPs seem reasonable especially across
northern Missouri on Monday and the rest of the forecast area on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Broad upper ridging prevailing over the region this afternoon.
Despite the presence of a weak frontal boundary across northern
Missouri...fcst going forward should largely be dry for all
terminals. Main concern heading into the overnight period will be
radiational fog/low cig potential during the predawn hours. Models
continue to offer this suggestion and have offered a tempo IFR
mention at STJ...and MVFR mention at MCI after 8z. Possible caveats
may be cloud cover and wind direction...however later fcsts can
adjust based on latest trends. Winds generally from the southeast
between 5-10 kts this afternoon before going nearly calm overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262026
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Water vapor imagery showing sprawling high pressure centered across
the American Southeast this afternoon...all in advance of a long wave
trough now working through the Desert Southwest/Great Basin. Along
the surface...long awaited weak trough/cold front now stalling just
south of the I-70 corridor...with northeast and easterly winds
prevailing in its wake across the greater KC Metro and much of
northern MO/eastern KS. Fortunately...cooler air continues to filter
into the region which has led to lower heat index values than
previous days. Inherited heat advisory to remain in effect through
00z this evening with no plans for additional heat headlines through
the remainder of the week.

Heading into tonight...main focus remains centered just to our north
as fcst models show redeveloping convection as the low-level jet
intensifies and impinges upon main synoptic front to our north. From
this vantage point...heaviest activity expected across southern NE/IA
as LLJ leads to best moisture convergence across these areas.
Regardless...models do indicate activity will work east along the
IA/MO state line during the predawn hrs as shortwave energy tracks
east along the northern periphery of upper ridge axis. For now...have
increased pops into the likely category across across the far
north...while also increasing pops to chc as far south as the
northern Metro. For areas removed from organized precip...tough call
with respect to cloud coverage. With main upper high directly to our
southeast...and with sfc ridging extending south from high pressure
across the upper Miss Rvr Vly...potential exists for develop fog for
areas that remain mostly clear. No mention in the grids at this point
due to uncertainty...but fcst models are making the suggestion none-
the-less.

By tomorrow...early morning activity to gradually track east during
the AM hrs with another warm and humid day expected in its wake.
Main synoptic scale front to remain north of the fcst area during the
day with no real hope of further southward progress as western Great
Lakes high pressure tracks east. Very hard to find any true forcing
mechanism through the day and as a result...have backtracked on pops
across the south and southeast through the afternoon. Highs will be
similar to today...with mid/upper 80s expected up north...while low
to mid 90s dominate further south.

Fcst becomes a tad more interesting Thu into Fri as previously
mentioned upper wave begins to track east into the central/southern
High Plains. As is the case with these types of systems...leeside
cyclogenesis expected to take place with developing low then expected
to track northeast through the conclusion of the short term period.
For now...best chc for developing shwrs/storms looks to arrive
Thursday night into Friday as sfc low approaches and moisture
advection again increases thanks to a straightening low-level jet. Based
on decent model agreement...have elected to increase pops both Thu
night and Friday which should finally allow main synoptic scale front
to sink south across the area. With weak winds aloft...large scale
severe weather is not expected with trough passage...but hopefully
all will benefit from some needed rainfall.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper trough will continue to lift eastward through the region on
Saturday allowing for weak ridging to build into the forecast area
Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  There will be some lingering
precipitation chances during the day on Saturday with exiting
system, however Sunday looks to be mainly dry.  H8 temperatures in
the +16C to +18C range over the weekend should translate to surface
temperatures near normal for Saturday and Sunday.

Late on Sunday deepening upper trough over western CONUS should
begin to impact the region allowing for strengthening low-level
southerly flow.  As a result temperatures should return to values
above normal by the early part of next week, but should not be as
warm as we have seen the last several days.  ECMWF and GFS in agreement
indicating strong LLJ nosing into eastern Kansas on Monday morning
and to a lesser degree on Tuesday morning.  With surface boundary in
vicinity slight chance-chance PoPs seem reasonable especially across
northern Missouri on Monday and the rest of the forecast area on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Broad upper ridging prevailing over the region this afternoon.
Despite the presence of a weak frontal boundary across northern
Missouri...fcst going forward should largely be dry for all
terminals. Main concern heading into the overnight period will be
radiational fog/low cig potential during the predawn hours. Models
continue to offer this suggestion and have offered a tempo IFR
mention at STJ...and MVFR mention at MCI after 8z. Possible caveats
may be cloud cover and wind direction...however later fcsts can
adjust based on latest trends. Winds generally from the southeast
between 5-10 kts this afternoon before going nearly calm overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261730
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Today:

A stationary front can be found this morning along a (just
north of) Kirksville to St Joseph to Manhattan line. Thunderstorms
have developed north of this front across southeastern Nebraska and
southwestern Iowa in response to a strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
These storms have been progressing eastward tracking north of the
area however, they have started taking a slight jog the ESE which
would allow these storms to clip extreme northern Missouri this
morning and as such have left chance POPs across the northern CWA.
These storms will dissipate this morning but may leave some residual
clouds across the northern CWA keeping temperatures cooler across the
northern CWA with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. Further south (of
the stationary front), the heat will remain entrenched for another
day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will also be slightly
higher than in the past couple of days as moisture pools along and
south of the front. With expected dewpoints in the lower 70s this
afternoon, expect heat index values along and south of the Missouri
River ranging in the 100-105 range. Have left slight chance POPs in
for this afternoon across northern Missouri in the vicinity of the
surface boundary because although convergence is non-
existent...moisture pooling and instability could spark an afternoon
thunderstorm.

Tonight through Tomorrow night:

The main concern during this time frame will deal with thunderstorm
chances. Tonight another nocturnal LLJ will develop will develop and
again bring the chance for thunderstorms along and north of the
surface boundary. As such have left chance POPs in the across
northern Missouri. Wednesday will bring more cloud cover than in
previous day knocking temperatures down a few degrees into the mid
80s to lower 90s. There will be a chance for ongoing convection
during the morning hours on Wednesday however, the afternoon should
remain dry. However, thunderstorm chances will again increase
Wednesday night as yet another nocturnal LLJ gets ramped up. Again
the focus for storm looks to be across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri where chance POPs are located.

Thursday through Sunday:

The next main storm system in the form of an upper level trough will
affect the area during this time frame leading to a period of
unsettled weather. The upper level trough in question is evident on
water vapor imagery digging through Nevada this morning. An upper
level low is expected to develop in the base of the trough across
Nevada today. This will slow the system down and as such will only
move into the eastern Rockies by Thursday. This will force a cold
front into the Western Plains on Thursday as thunderstorm develop
west of the local area. Model timing has been the challenge in
previous forecasts as to when this front will move into the area.
Models have come into better agreement in recent runs and are now
depicting the front to reach into eastern Kansas late Thursday night
or Friday morning. As such thunderstorms should move into the
western CWA Thursday night and overspread the area on Friday as the
cold front stalls across eastern Kansas in response to the slowing
and weakening upper level trough. The upper level trough finally
does push through the region Saturday finally force the cold front
through the CWA continuing thunderstorm chances. By Sunday the upper
level trough will be exiting the region. There may be a few residual
showers across the eastern CWA early Sunday but otherwise conditions
should remain dry with seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday:

Models depict another shortwave moving through the region however
the spread of timing and placement of this feature leave much to be
desired. The GFS is much faster and further south with this feature
than the EC. Given vast model difference have opted to keep what was
inherited by the initialization...which is chance POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Broad upper ridging prevailing over the region this afternoon.
Despite the presence of a weak frontal boundary across northern
Missouri...fcst going forward should largely be dry for all
terminals. Main concern heading into the overnight period will be
radiational fog/low cig potential during the predawn hours. Models
continue to offer this suggestion and have offered a tempo IFR
mention at STJ...and MVFR mention at MCI after 8z. Possible caveats
may be cloud cover and wind direction...however later fcsts can
adjust based on latest trends. Winds generally from the southeast
between 5-10 kts this afternoon before going nearly calm overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261730
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Today:

A stationary front can be found this morning along a (just
north of) Kirksville to St Joseph to Manhattan line. Thunderstorms
have developed north of this front across southeastern Nebraska and
southwestern Iowa in response to a strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
These storms have been progressing eastward tracking north of the
area however, they have started taking a slight jog the ESE which
would allow these storms to clip extreme northern Missouri this
morning and as such have left chance POPs across the northern CWA.
These storms will dissipate this morning but may leave some residual
clouds across the northern CWA keeping temperatures cooler across the
northern CWA with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. Further south (of
the stationary front), the heat will remain entrenched for another
day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will also be slightly
higher than in the past couple of days as moisture pools along and
south of the front. With expected dewpoints in the lower 70s this
afternoon, expect heat index values along and south of the Missouri
River ranging in the 100-105 range. Have left slight chance POPs in
for this afternoon across northern Missouri in the vicinity of the
surface boundary because although convergence is non-
existent...moisture pooling and instability could spark an afternoon
thunderstorm.

Tonight through Tomorrow night:

The main concern during this time frame will deal with thunderstorm
chances. Tonight another nocturnal LLJ will develop will develop and
again bring the chance for thunderstorms along and north of the
surface boundary. As such have left chance POPs in the across
northern Missouri. Wednesday will bring more cloud cover than in
previous day knocking temperatures down a few degrees into the mid
80s to lower 90s. There will be a chance for ongoing convection
during the morning hours on Wednesday however, the afternoon should
remain dry. However, thunderstorm chances will again increase
Wednesday night as yet another nocturnal LLJ gets ramped up. Again
the focus for storm looks to be across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri where chance POPs are located.

Thursday through Sunday:

The next main storm system in the form of an upper level trough will
affect the area during this time frame leading to a period of
unsettled weather. The upper level trough in question is evident on
water vapor imagery digging through Nevada this morning. An upper
level low is expected to develop in the base of the trough across
Nevada today. This will slow the system down and as such will only
move into the eastern Rockies by Thursday. This will force a cold
front into the Western Plains on Thursday as thunderstorm develop
west of the local area. Model timing has been the challenge in
previous forecasts as to when this front will move into the area.
Models have come into better agreement in recent runs and are now
depicting the front to reach into eastern Kansas late Thursday night
or Friday morning. As such thunderstorms should move into the
western CWA Thursday night and overspread the area on Friday as the
cold front stalls across eastern Kansas in response to the slowing
and weakening upper level trough. The upper level trough finally
does push through the region Saturday finally force the cold front
through the CWA continuing thunderstorm chances. By Sunday the upper
level trough will be exiting the region. There may be a few residual
showers across the eastern CWA early Sunday but otherwise conditions
should remain dry with seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday:

Models depict another shortwave moving through the region however
the spread of timing and placement of this feature leave much to be
desired. The GFS is much faster and further south with this feature
than the EC. Given vast model difference have opted to keep what was
inherited by the initialization...which is chance POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Broad upper ridging prevailing over the region this afternoon.
Despite the presence of a weak frontal boundary across northern
Missouri...fcst going forward should largely be dry for all
terminals. Main concern heading into the overnight period will be
radiational fog/low cig potential during the predawn hours. Models
continue to offer this suggestion and have offered a tempo IFR
mention at STJ...and MVFR mention at MCI after 8z. Possible caveats
may be cloud cover and wind direction...however later fcsts can
adjust based on latest trends. Winds generally from the southeast
between 5-10 kts this afternoon before going nearly calm overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261129
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Today:

A stationary front can be found this morning along a (just
north of) Kirksville to St Joseph to Manhattan line. Thunderstorms
have developed north of this front across southeastern Nebraska and
southwestern Iowa in response to a strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
These storms have been progressing eastward tracking north of the
area however, they have started taking a slight jog the ESE which
would allow these storms to clip extreme northern Missouri this
morning and as such have left chance POPs across the northern CWA.
These storms will dissipate this morning but may leave some residual
clouds across the northern CWA keeping temperatures cooler across the
northern CWA with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. Further south (of
the stationary front), the heat will remain entrenched for another
day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will also be slightly
higher than in the past couple of days as moisture pools along and
south of the front. With expected dewpoints in the lower 70s this
afternoon, expect heat index values along and south of the Missouri
River ranging in the 100-105 range. Have left slight chance POPs in
for this afternoon across northern Missouri in the vicinity of the
surface boundary because although convergence is non-
existent...moisture pooling and instability could spark an afternoon
thunderstorm.

Tonight through Tomorrow night:

The main concern during this time frame will deal with thunderstorm
chances. Tonight another nocturnal LLJ will develop will develop and
again bring the chance for thunderstorms along and north of the
surface boundary. As such have left chance POPs in the across
northern Missouri. Wednesday will bring more cloud cover than in
previous day knocking temperatures down a few degrees into the mid
80s to lower 90s. There will be a chance for ongoing convection
during the morning hours on Wednesday however, the afternoon should
remain dry. However, thunderstorm chances will again increase
Wednesday night as yet another nocturnal LLJ gets ramped up. Again
the focus for storm looks to be across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri where chance POPs are located.

Thursday through Sunday:

The next main storm system in the form of an upper level trough will
affect the area during this time frame leading to a period of
unsettled weather. The upper level trough in question is evident on
water vapor imagery digging through Nevada this morning. An upper
level low is expected to develop in the base of the trough across
Nevada today. This will slow the system down and as such will only
move into the eastern Rockies by Thursday. This will force a cold
front into the Western Plains on Thursday as thunderstorm develop
west of the local area. Model timing has been the challenge in
previous forecasts as to when this front will move into the area.
Models have come into better agreement in recent runs and are now
depicting the front to reach into eastern Kansas late Thursday night
or Friday morning. As such thunderstorms should move into the
western CWA Thursday night and overspread the area on Friday as the
cold front stalls across eastern Kansas in response to the slowing
and weakening upper level trough. The upper level trough finally
does push through the region Saturday finally force the cold front
through the CWA continuing thunderstorm chances. By Sunday the upper
level trough will be exiting the region. There may be a few residual
showers across the eastern CWA early Sunday but otherwise conditions
should remain dry with seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday:

Models depict another shortwave moving through the region however
the spread of timing and placement of this feature leave much to be
desired. The GFS is much faster and further south with this feature
than the EC. Given vast model difference have opted to keep what was
inherited by the initialization...which is chance POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

An outflow boundary sent out by convection to the north has moved
through the terminals and temporarily picked up gusty winds from the
north. These winds should subside by 13Z and become lgt and vrb as
there is a surface front in the VC of the terminals. In the VC of the
front this morning there is also MVFR cigs...the bands appears to be
narrow as MVFR cigs have already moved in and out of STJ. In any case
expect a brief period of MVFR cigs at MCI and MKC thru 13Z. Beyond
the first hour of the TAF period conditions should remain VFR with
sct-bkn mid lvl clouds this morning giving way to sct cu around 4-5kft
this afternoon. Cumulus clouds should dissipate this evening and be
replaced by bkn high cirrus from storms well off to the west.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261129
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Today:

A stationary front can be found this morning along a (just
north of) Kirksville to St Joseph to Manhattan line. Thunderstorms
have developed north of this front across southeastern Nebraska and
southwestern Iowa in response to a strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
These storms have been progressing eastward tracking north of the
area however, they have started taking a slight jog the ESE which
would allow these storms to clip extreme northern Missouri this
morning and as such have left chance POPs across the northern CWA.
These storms will dissipate this morning but may leave some residual
clouds across the northern CWA keeping temperatures cooler across the
northern CWA with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. Further south (of
the stationary front), the heat will remain entrenched for another
day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will also be slightly
higher than in the past couple of days as moisture pools along and
south of the front. With expected dewpoints in the lower 70s this
afternoon, expect heat index values along and south of the Missouri
River ranging in the 100-105 range. Have left slight chance POPs in
for this afternoon across northern Missouri in the vicinity of the
surface boundary because although convergence is non-
existent...moisture pooling and instability could spark an afternoon
thunderstorm.

Tonight through Tomorrow night:

The main concern during this time frame will deal with thunderstorm
chances. Tonight another nocturnal LLJ will develop will develop and
again bring the chance for thunderstorms along and north of the
surface boundary. As such have left chance POPs in the across
northern Missouri. Wednesday will bring more cloud cover than in
previous day knocking temperatures down a few degrees into the mid
80s to lower 90s. There will be a chance for ongoing convection
during the morning hours on Wednesday however, the afternoon should
remain dry. However, thunderstorm chances will again increase
Wednesday night as yet another nocturnal LLJ gets ramped up. Again
the focus for storm looks to be across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri where chance POPs are located.

Thursday through Sunday:

The next main storm system in the form of an upper level trough will
affect the area during this time frame leading to a period of
unsettled weather. The upper level trough in question is evident on
water vapor imagery digging through Nevada this morning. An upper
level low is expected to develop in the base of the trough across
Nevada today. This will slow the system down and as such will only
move into the eastern Rockies by Thursday. This will force a cold
front into the Western Plains on Thursday as thunderstorm develop
west of the local area. Model timing has been the challenge in
previous forecasts as to when this front will move into the area.
Models have come into better agreement in recent runs and are now
depicting the front to reach into eastern Kansas late Thursday night
or Friday morning. As such thunderstorms should move into the
western CWA Thursday night and overspread the area on Friday as the
cold front stalls across eastern Kansas in response to the slowing
and weakening upper level trough. The upper level trough finally
does push through the region Saturday finally force the cold front
through the CWA continuing thunderstorm chances. By Sunday the upper
level trough will be exiting the region. There may be a few residual
showers across the eastern CWA early Sunday but otherwise conditions
should remain dry with seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday:

Models depict another shortwave moving through the region however
the spread of timing and placement of this feature leave much to be
desired. The GFS is much faster and further south with this feature
than the EC. Given vast model difference have opted to keep what was
inherited by the initialization...which is chance POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

An outflow boundary sent out by convection to the north has moved
through the terminals and temporarily picked up gusty winds from the
north. These winds should subside by 13Z and become lgt and vrb as
there is a surface front in the VC of the terminals. In the VC of the
front this morning there is also MVFR cigs...the bands appears to be
narrow as MVFR cigs have already moved in and out of STJ. In any case
expect a brief period of MVFR cigs at MCI and MKC thru 13Z. Beyond
the first hour of the TAF period conditions should remain VFR with
sct-bkn mid lvl clouds this morning giving way to sct cu around 4-5kft
this afternoon. Cumulus clouds should dissipate this evening and be
replaced by bkn high cirrus from storms well off to the west.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260847
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Today:

A stationary front can be found this morning along a (just
north of) Kirksville to St Joseph to Manhattan line. Thunderstorms
have developed north of this front across southeastern Nebraska and
southwestern Iowa in response to a strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
These storms have been progressing eastward tracking north of the
area however, they have started taking a slight jog the ESE which
would allow these storms to clip extreme northern Missouri this
morning and as such have left chance POPs across the northern CWA.
These storms will dissipate this morning but may leave some residual
clouds across the northern CWA keeping temperatures cooler across the
northern CWA with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. Further south (of
the stationary front), the heat will remain entrenched for another
day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will also be slightly
higher than in the past couple of days as moisture pools along and
south of the front. With expected dewpoints in the lower 70s this
afternoon, expect heat index values along and south of the Missouri
River ranging in the 100-105 range. Have left slight chance POPs in
for this afternoon across northern Missouri in the vicinity of the
surface boundary because although convergence is non-
existent...moisture pooling and instability could spark an afternoon
thunderstorm.

Tonight through Tomorrow night:

The main concern during this time frame will deal with thunderstorm
chances. Tonight another nocturnal LLJ will develop will develop and
again bring the chance for thunderstorms along and north of the
surface boundary. As such have left chance POPs in the across
northern Missouri. Wednesday will bring more cloud cover than in
previous day knocking temperatures down a few degrees into the mid
80s to lower 90s. There will be a chance for ongoing convection
during the morning hours on Wednesday however, the afternoon should
remain dry. However, thunderstorm chances will again increase
Wednesday night as yet another nocturnal LLJ gets ramped up. Again
the focus for storm looks to be across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri where chance POPs are located.

Thursday through Sunday:

The next main storm system in the form of an upper level trough will
affect the area during this time frame leading to a period of
unsettled weather. The upper level trough in question is evident on
water vapor imagery digging through Nevada this morning. An upper
level low is expected to develop in the base of the trough across
Nevada today. This will slow the system down and as such will only
move into the eastern Rockies by Thursday. This will force a cold
front into the Western Plains on Thursday as thunderstorm develop
west of the local area. Model timing has been the challenge in
previous forecasts as to when this front will move into the area.
Models have come into better agreement in recent runs and are now
depicting the front to reach into eastern Kansas late Thursday night
or Friday morning. As such thunderstorms should move into the
western CWA Thursday night and overspread the area on Friday as the
cold front stalls across eastern Kansas in response to the slowing
and weakening upper level trough. The upper level trough finally
does push through the region Saturday finally force the cold front
through the CWA continuing thunderstorm chances. By Sunday the upper
level trough will be exiting the region. There may be a few residual
showers across the eastern CWA early Sunday but otherwise conditions
should remain dry with seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday:

Models depict another shortwave moving through the region however
the spread of timing and placement of this feature leave much to be
desired. The GFS is much faster and further south with this feature
than the EC. Given vast model difference have opted to keep what was
inherited by the initialization...which is chance POPs.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals over the next
24 hours. Only issues might focus on potential for thunderstorms
early Tuesday morning. Expectations are that storms will stay clear
of the terminals, but the slight potential is there. Otherwise,
expect surface winds to wallow around as a weak front washes out
across Missouri Tuesday. This will provide modest winds --under 10
MPH-- through the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260847
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Today:

A stationary front can be found this morning along a (just
north of) Kirksville to St Joseph to Manhattan line. Thunderstorms
have developed north of this front across southeastern Nebraska and
southwestern Iowa in response to a strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
These storms have been progressing eastward tracking north of the
area however, they have started taking a slight jog the ESE which
would allow these storms to clip extreme northern Missouri this
morning and as such have left chance POPs across the northern CWA.
These storms will dissipate this morning but may leave some residual
clouds across the northern CWA keeping temperatures cooler across the
northern CWA with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. Further south (of
the stationary front), the heat will remain entrenched for another
day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will also be slightly
higher than in the past couple of days as moisture pools along and
south of the front. With expected dewpoints in the lower 70s this
afternoon, expect heat index values along and south of the Missouri
River ranging in the 100-105 range. Have left slight chance POPs in
for this afternoon across northern Missouri in the vicinity of the
surface boundary because although convergence is non-
existent...moisture pooling and instability could spark an afternoon
thunderstorm.

Tonight through Tomorrow night:

The main concern during this time frame will deal with thunderstorm
chances. Tonight another nocturnal LLJ will develop will develop and
again bring the chance for thunderstorms along and north of the
surface boundary. As such have left chance POPs in the across
northern Missouri. Wednesday will bring more cloud cover than in
previous day knocking temperatures down a few degrees into the mid
80s to lower 90s. There will be a chance for ongoing convection
during the morning hours on Wednesday however, the afternoon should
remain dry. However, thunderstorm chances will again increase
Wednesday night as yet another nocturnal LLJ gets ramped up. Again
the focus for storm looks to be across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri where chance POPs are located.

Thursday through Sunday:

The next main storm system in the form of an upper level trough will
affect the area during this time frame leading to a period of
unsettled weather. The upper level trough in question is evident on
water vapor imagery digging through Nevada this morning. An upper
level low is expected to develop in the base of the trough across
Nevada today. This will slow the system down and as such will only
move into the eastern Rockies by Thursday. This will force a cold
front into the Western Plains on Thursday as thunderstorm develop
west of the local area. Model timing has been the challenge in
previous forecasts as to when this front will move into the area.
Models have come into better agreement in recent runs and are now
depicting the front to reach into eastern Kansas late Thursday night
or Friday morning. As such thunderstorms should move into the
western CWA Thursday night and overspread the area on Friday as the
cold front stalls across eastern Kansas in response to the slowing
and weakening upper level trough. The upper level trough finally
does push through the region Saturday finally force the cold front
through the CWA continuing thunderstorm chances. By Sunday the upper
level trough will be exiting the region. There may be a few residual
showers across the eastern CWA early Sunday but otherwise conditions
should remain dry with seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday:

Models depict another shortwave moving through the region however
the spread of timing and placement of this feature leave much to be
desired. The GFS is much faster and further south with this feature
than the EC. Given vast model difference have opted to keep what was
inherited by the initialization...which is chance POPs.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals over the next
24 hours. Only issues might focus on potential for thunderstorms
early Tuesday morning. Expectations are that storms will stay clear
of the terminals, but the slight potential is there. Otherwise,
expect surface winds to wallow around as a weak front washes out
across Missouri Tuesday. This will provide modest winds --under 10
MPH-- through the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260457
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

For tonight, the main concern will be precipitation chances along
several surface boundaries that currently linger around the northern
CWA border. The surface cold front associated with a low pressure
system now north of the Canadian border was reinforced by convective
outflow this morning, and has settled along the MO/IA border. A few
other preexisting outflow boundaries have pushed into the areas
between the IA border and Highway 36, but are not associated with
much low-level convergence. Convection is expected to develop along
and north of the surface cold front where upper level subsidence
associated with the upper high is weaker and midlevel lapse rates
are a bit steeper; however, a few isolated storms are possible
further south along the existing boundaries, or if outflow from
tonight`s storms pushes south and initiates convection. Have kept
low end PoPs as far south as the northern KC metro, but expect the
majority of precipitation to stay along and north of Highway 36.

For Tuesday, the focus shifts to temperatures as the upper level
ridge continues to position across the forecast area and 850 hPa
temperatures remain in the 20 to 22 C degree range. Outflow/cloud
cover associated with any storms tonight could hold temperatures
down across the northern half of the CWA and push the effective cold
front into the northern tier of counties, so have chosen not to
extend the heat advisory for areas north of the KC metro to Moberly.
Elsewhere, the advisory continues for one more day as moisture
pooling south of the boundary and another afternoon of temperatures
in the mid 90s supports max heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.

Slightly more widespread storms are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, creating another potential for clouds/cooling for
much of Wednesday. In addition, 850 hPa temperatures cool another
degree or two and allow temperatures to top out in the lower 90s
across most of the region. As a result, heat indices are not
expected to exceed 100 degrees Wednesday, and do not anticipate
extending the advisory past Tuesday evening. Storm chances will
continue through the daytime hours on Wednesday and into Thursday,
but how far storms can extend and how widespread any precipitation
will be is still very uncertain. Another upper low will finally kick
the surface cold front through the region sometime Friday or
Saturday, increasing storm chances and decreasing temperatures for
the end of the week into the weekend. Severe weather is not
expected, but periods of heavy rain are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals over the next
24 hours. Only issues might focus on potential for thunderstorms
early Tuesday morning. Expectations are that storms will stay clear
of the terminals, but the slight potential is there. Otherwise,
expect surface winds to wallow around as a weak front washes out
across Missouri Tuesday. This will provide modest winds --under 10
MPH-- through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252336
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

For tonight, the main concern will be precipitation chances along
several surface boundaries that currently linger around the northern
CWA border. The surface cold front associated with a low pressure
system now north of the Canadian border was reinforced by convective
outflow this morning, and has settled along the MO/IA border. A few
other preexisting outflow boundaries have pushed into the areas
between the IA border and Highway 36, but are not associated with
much low-level convergence. Convection is expected to develop along
and north of the surface cold front where upper level subsidence
associated with the upper high is weaker and midlevel lapse rates
are a bit steeper; however, a few isolated storms are possible
further south along the existing boundaries, or if outflow from
tonight`s storms pushes south and initiates convection. Have kept
low end PoPs as far south as the northern KC metro, but expect the
majority of precipitation to stay along and north of Highway 36.

For Tuesday, the focus shifts to temperatures as the upper level
ridge continues to position across the forecast area and 850 hPa
temperatures remain in the 20 to 22 C degree range. Outflow/cloud
cover associated with any storms tonight could hold temperatures
down across the northern half of the CWA and push the effective cold
front into the northern tier of counties, so have chosen not to
extend the heat advisory for areas north of the KC metro to Moberly.
Elsewhere, the advisory continues for one more day as moisture
pooling south of the boundary and another afternoon of temperatures
in the mid 90s supports max heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.

Slightly more widespread storms are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, creating another potential for clouds/cooling for
much of Wednesday. In addition, 850 hPa temperatures cool another
degree or two and allow temperatures to top out in the lower 90s
across most of the region. As a result, heat indices are not
expected to exceed 100 degrees Wednesday, and do not anticipate
extending the advisory past Tuesday evening. Storm chances will
continue through the daytime hours on Wednesday and into Thursday,
but how far storms can extend and how widespread any precipitation
will be is still very uncertain. Another upper low will finally kick
the surface cold front through the region sometime Friday or
Saturday, increasing storm chances and decreasing temperatures for
the end of the week into the weekend. Severe weather is not
expected, but periods of heavy rain are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all the terminals for the next
24 hours. A weak cold front will settle into the vicinity of the
terminals tonight, but will wash out just as quickly leaving winds
rather light and variable by Tuesday afternoon. Convection is not
currently expected to occur with the front, though some overnight
activity in southeast Nebraska may be able to produce some cloud
cover that might effect the KSTJ terminal early Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

For tonight, the main concern will be precipitation chances along
several surface boundaries that currently linger around the northern
CWA border. The surface cold front associated with a low pressure
system now north of the Canadian border was reinforced by convective
outflow this morning, and has settled along the MO/IA border. A few
other preexisting outflow boundaries have pushed into the areas
between the IA border and Highway 36, but are not associated with
much low-level convergence. Convection is expected to develop along
and north of the surface cold front where upper level subsidence
associated with the upper high is weaker and midlevel lapse rates
are a bit steeper; however, a few isolated storms are possible
further south along the existing boundaries, or if outflow from
tonight`s storms pushes south and initiates convection. Have kept
low end PoPs as far south as the northern KC metro, but expect the
majority of precipitation to stay along and north of Highway 36.

For Tuesday, the focus shifts to temperatures as the upper level
ridge continues to position across the forecast area and 850 hPa
temperatures remain in the 20 to 22 C degree range. Outflow/cloud
cover associated with any storms tonight could hold temperatures
down across the northern half of the CWA and push the effective cold
front into the northern tier of counties, so have chosen not to
extend the heat advisory for areas north of the KC metro to Moberly.
Elsewhere, the advisory continues for one more day as moisture
pooling south of the boundary and another afternoon of temperatures
in the mid 90s supports max heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.

Slightly more widespread storms are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, creating another potential for clouds/cooling for
much of Wednesday. In addition, 850 hPa temperatures cool another
degree or two and allow temperatures to top out in the lower 90s
across most of the region. As a result, heat indices are not
expected to exceed 100 degrees Wednesday, and do not anticipate
extending the advisory past Tuesday evening. Storm chances will
continue through the daytime hours on Wednesday and into Thursday,
but how far storms can extend and how widespread any precipitation
will be is still very uncertain. Another upper low will finally kick
the surface cold front through the region sometime Friday or
Saturday, increasing storm chances and decreasing temperatures for
the end of the week into the weekend. Severe weather is not
expected, but periods of heavy rain are possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. A
few isolated storms are possible across far northern Missouri between
09z-15z Tuesday, but are not expected to impact any of the TAF sites.
Winds will remain out of the south or southwest this afternoon and
evening, then will become light southeast during the night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251725
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The main concern in for today will continue to be the heat. However,
in the very short term, early this morning, a broken line of
convection has blossomed across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. This is in response to isentropic ascent along
the 310K surface. This will look to begin weakening around daybreak
but may provide extra clouds through the morning hours. This may
keep temperatures from skyrocketing this morning but mostly sunny
skies will prevail today. 850mb temperatures will be very similar
to yesterday and with the same airmass in place, have keep
temperatures close to yesterday with highs in the 90s. Factoring in
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat index values will
again be in the 100-105 range and as such a heat advisory remains in
effect until 8PM tonight.

An upper level low this morning is moving northeast from North
Dakota into the Canadian Plains. This upper low is forcing a weak
cold front into the region. The main question is how far south this
front will sag today. Models are mainly in agreement that the front
will remain north of the forecast area perhaps clipping extreme
northwest Missouri. Tonight moisture will pool along this boundary
as a 30-40KT southwesterly LLJ will spark thunderstorms to develop
along and north of the front across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. As such have slight chance to chance POPs
north of an MCI to Macon line tonight.

The aforementioned cold front will then get hung up across the
northern CWA Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge axis,
which has brought the recent spell of hot weather, remains stout
across the southern Missouri. As such, temperatures will remain hot
Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception perhaps being across the
northern CWA in the area of the front. Highs will range in the upper
80s to upper 90s on Tuesday and from the mid 80s to the mid 90s
Wednesday. Chance to slight chance POPs are possible both days in
the vicinity of the front however with extremely weak forcing and
weak upper flow chances seem low during the day but may be increased
during the night time hours due to a weak LLJ.

The main feature of interest in the extended period will be an upper
level trough which is moving through the Pacific Northwest this
morning. This trough is progged to dig southward into the Great
Basin by Wednesday morning and develop an upper low. Previous model
runs of the GFS has depicted a more progressive open wave forcing a
front into the CWA Tuesday night/Wednesday. However, recent runs has
shown the GFS come more in line with the EC/GEM/NAM in developing an
upper low across the Great Basin and slowing down the system. The
GFS does however still show a faster progression of the system from
the Great Basin into the Plains. It is this upper system that will
finally force a slow moving cold front through the region. This slow
moving cold front could produce several periods of precipitation
across the area from Thursday through Sunday. As such chance POPs
are in the forecast from Thursday through Saturday night with only
slight chances on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s Thursday and Friday. As the cold front moves through on
Saturday highs will become more seasonable for Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. A
few isolated storms are possible across far northern Missouri between
09z-15z Tuesday, but are not expected to impact any of the TAF sites.
Winds will remain out of the south or southwest this afternoon and
evening, then will become light southeast during the night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251725
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The main concern in for today will continue to be the heat. However,
in the very short term, early this morning, a broken line of
convection has blossomed across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. This is in response to isentropic ascent along
the 310K surface. This will look to begin weakening around daybreak
but may provide extra clouds through the morning hours. This may
keep temperatures from skyrocketing this morning but mostly sunny
skies will prevail today. 850mb temperatures will be very similar
to yesterday and with the same airmass in place, have keep
temperatures close to yesterday with highs in the 90s. Factoring in
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat index values will
again be in the 100-105 range and as such a heat advisory remains in
effect until 8PM tonight.

An upper level low this morning is moving northeast from North
Dakota into the Canadian Plains. This upper low is forcing a weak
cold front into the region. The main question is how far south this
front will sag today. Models are mainly in agreement that the front
will remain north of the forecast area perhaps clipping extreme
northwest Missouri. Tonight moisture will pool along this boundary
as a 30-40KT southwesterly LLJ will spark thunderstorms to develop
along and north of the front across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. As such have slight chance to chance POPs
north of an MCI to Macon line tonight.

The aforementioned cold front will then get hung up across the
northern CWA Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge axis,
which has brought the recent spell of hot weather, remains stout
across the southern Missouri. As such, temperatures will remain hot
Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception perhaps being across the
northern CWA in the area of the front. Highs will range in the upper
80s to upper 90s on Tuesday and from the mid 80s to the mid 90s
Wednesday. Chance to slight chance POPs are possible both days in
the vicinity of the front however with extremely weak forcing and
weak upper flow chances seem low during the day but may be increased
during the night time hours due to a weak LLJ.

The main feature of interest in the extended period will be an upper
level trough which is moving through the Pacific Northwest this
morning. This trough is progged to dig southward into the Great
Basin by Wednesday morning and develop an upper low. Previous model
runs of the GFS has depicted a more progressive open wave forcing a
front into the CWA Tuesday night/Wednesday. However, recent runs has
shown the GFS come more in line with the EC/GEM/NAM in developing an
upper low across the Great Basin and slowing down the system. The
GFS does however still show a faster progression of the system from
the Great Basin into the Plains. It is this upper system that will
finally force a slow moving cold front through the region. This slow
moving cold front could produce several periods of precipitation
across the area from Thursday through Sunday. As such chance POPs
are in the forecast from Thursday through Saturday night with only
slight chances on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s Thursday and Friday. As the cold front moves through on
Saturday highs will become more seasonable for Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. A
few isolated storms are possible across far northern Missouri between
09z-15z Tuesday, but are not expected to impact any of the TAF sites.
Winds will remain out of the south or southwest this afternoon and
evening, then will become light southeast during the night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The main concern in for today will continue to be the heat. However,
in the very short term, early this morning, a broken line of
convection has blossomed across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. This is in response to isentropic ascent along
the 310K surface. This will look to begin weakening around daybreak
but may provide extra clouds through the morning hours. This may
keep temperatures from skyrocketing this morning but mostly sunny
skies will prevail today. 850mb temperatures will be very similar
to yesterday and with the same airmass in place, have keep
temperatures close to yesterday with highs in the 90s. Factoring in
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat index values will
again be in the 100-105 range and as such a heat advisory remains in
effect until 8PM tonight.

An upper level low this morning is moving northeast from North
Dakota into the Canadian Plains. This upper low is forcing a weak
cold front into the region. The main question is how far south this
front will sag today. Models are mainly in agreement that the front
will remain north of the forecast area perhaps clipping extreme
northwest Missouri. Tonight moisture will pool along this boundary
as a 30-40KT southwesterly LLJ will spark thunderstorms to develop
along and north of the front across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. As such have slight chance to chance POPs
north of an MCI to Macon line tonight.

The aforementioned cold front will then get hung up across the
northern CWA Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge axis,
which has brought the recent spell of hot weather, remains stout
across the southern Missouri. As such, temperatures will remain hot
Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception perhaps being across the
northern CWA in the area of the front. Highs will range in the upper
80s to upper 90s on Tuesday and from the mid 80s to the mid 90s
Wednesday. Chance to slight chance POPs are possible both days in
the vicinity of the front however with extremely weak forcing and
weak upper flow chances seem low during the day but may be increased
during the night time hours due to a weak LLJ.

The main feature of interest in the extended period will be an upper
level trough which is moving through the Pacific Northwest this
morning. This trough is progged to dig southward into the Great
Basin by Wednesday morning and develop an upper low. Previous model
runs of the GFS has depicted a more progressive open wave forcing a
front into the CWA Tuesday night/Wednesday. However, recent runs has
shown the GFS come more in line with the EC/GEM/NAM in developing an
upper low across the Great Basin and slowing down the system. The
GFS does however still show a faster progression of the system from
the Great Basin into the Plains. It is this upper system that will
finally force a slow moving cold front through the region. This slow
moving cold front could produce several periods of precipitation
across the area from Thursday through Sunday. As such chance POPs
are in the forecast from Thursday through Saturday night with only
slight chances on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s Thursday and Friday. As the cold front moves through on
Saturday highs will become more seasonable for Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conds are expected through the period. This morning a line of
showers and thunderstorms is dissipating right over STJ and MCI.
These will weaken by the start of the TAF period at 12Z. Otherwise,
expect just sct 10kft clouds this morning before skies clear later
this morning. Tonight as cold moves stalls just north of the
terminals expect few-sct clouds around 6kft at the terminals. Winds
today will be out of the south btn 5-10kts. Tonight winds will become
vrb at STJ as the cold front moves into the VC otherwise...winds will
remain light out of the south at MCI and MKC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The main concern in for today will continue to be the heat. However,
in the very short term, early this morning, a broken line of
convection has blossomed across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. This is in response to isentropic ascent along
the 310K surface. This will look to begin weakening around daybreak
but may provide extra clouds through the morning hours. This may
keep temperatures from skyrocketing this morning but mostly sunny
skies will prevail today. 850mb temperatures will be very similar
to yesterday and with the same airmass in place, have keep
temperatures close to yesterday with highs in the 90s. Factoring in
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat index values will
again be in the 100-105 range and as such a heat advisory remains in
effect until 8PM tonight.

An upper level low this morning is moving northeast from North
Dakota into the Canadian Plains. This upper low is forcing a weak
cold front into the region. The main question is how far south this
front will sag today. Models are mainly in agreement that the front
will remain north of the forecast area perhaps clipping extreme
northwest Missouri. Tonight moisture will pool along this boundary
as a 30-40KT southwesterly LLJ will spark thunderstorms to develop
along and north of the front across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. As such have slight chance to chance POPs
north of an MCI to Macon line tonight.

The aforementioned cold front will then get hung up across the
northern CWA Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge axis,
which has brought the recent spell of hot weather, remains stout
across the southern Missouri. As such, temperatures will remain hot
Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception perhaps being across the
northern CWA in the area of the front. Highs will range in the upper
80s to upper 90s on Tuesday and from the mid 80s to the mid 90s
Wednesday. Chance to slight chance POPs are possible both days in
the vicinity of the front however with extremely weak forcing and
weak upper flow chances seem low during the day but may be increased
during the night time hours due to a weak LLJ.

The main feature of interest in the extended period will be an upper
level trough which is moving through the Pacific Northwest this
morning. This trough is progged to dig southward into the Great
Basin by Wednesday morning and develop an upper low. Previous model
runs of the GFS has depicted a more progressive open wave forcing a
front into the CWA Tuesday night/Wednesday. However, recent runs has
shown the GFS come more in line with the EC/GEM/NAM in developing an
upper low across the Great Basin and slowing down the system. The
GFS does however still show a faster progression of the system from
the Great Basin into the Plains. It is this upper system that will
finally force a slow moving cold front through the region. This slow
moving cold front could produce several periods of precipitation
across the area from Thursday through Sunday. As such chance POPs
are in the forecast from Thursday through Saturday night with only
slight chances on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s Thursday and Friday. As the cold front moves through on
Saturday highs will become more seasonable for Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conds are expected through the period. This morning a line of
showers and thunderstorms is dissipating right over STJ and MCI.
These will weaken by the start of the TAF period at 12Z. Otherwise,
expect just sct 10kft clouds this morning before skies clear later
this morning. Tonight as cold moves stalls just north of the
terminals expect few-sct clouds around 6kft at the terminals. Winds
today will be out of the south btn 5-10kts. Tonight winds will become
vrb at STJ as the cold front moves into the VC otherwise...winds will
remain light out of the south at MCI and MKC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250847
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The main concern in for today will continue to be the heat. However,
in the very short term, early this morning, a broken line of
convection has blossomed across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. This is in response to isentropic ascent along
the 310K surface. This will look to begin weakening around daybreak
but may provide extra clouds through the morning hours. This may
keep temperatures from skyrocketing this morning but mostly sunny
skies will prevail today. 850mb temperatures will be very similar
to yesterday and with the same airmass in place, have keep
temperatures close to yesterday with highs in the 90s. Factoring in
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat index values will
again be in the 100-105 range and as such a heat advisory remains in
effect until 8PM tonight.

An upper level low this morning is moving northeast from North
Dakota into the Canadian Plains. This upper low is forcing a weak
cold front into the region. The main question is how far south this
front will sag today. Models are mainly in agreement that the front
will remain north of the forecast area perhaps clipping extreme
northwest Missouri. Tonight moisture will pool along this boundary
as a 30-40KT southwesterly LLJ will spark thunderstorms to develop
along and north of the front across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. As such have slight chance to chance POPs
north of an MCI to Macon line tonight.

The aforementioned cold front will then get hung up across the
northern CWA Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge axis,
which has brought the recent spell of hot weather, remains stout
across the southern Missouri. As such, temperatures will remain hot
Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception perhaps being across the
northern CWA in the area of the front. Highs will range in the upper
80s to upper 90s on Tuesday and from the mid 80s to the mid 90s
Wednesday. Chance to slight chance POPs are possible both days in
the vicinity of the front however with extremely weak forcing and
weak upper flow chances seem low during the day but may be increased
during the night time hours due to a weak LLJ.

The main feature of interest in the extended period will be an upper
level trough which is moving through the Pacific Northwest this
morning. This trough is progged to dig southward into the Great
Basin by Wednesday morning and develop an upper low. Previous model
runs of the GFS has depicted a more progressive open wave forcing a
front into the CWA Tuesday night/Wednesday. However, recent runs has
shown the GFS come more in line with the EC/GEM/NAM in developing an
upper low across the Great Basin and slowing down the system. The
GFS does however still show a faster progression of the system from
the Great Basin into the Plains. It is this upper system that will
finally force a slow moving cold front through the region. This slow
moving cold front could produce several periods of precipitation
across the area from Thursday through Sunday. As such chance POPs
are in the forecast from Thursday through Saturday night with only
slight chances on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s Thursday and Friday. As the cold front moves through on
Saturday highs will become more seasonable for Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the low to mid 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

VFR expected through the period. Southerly winds will continue with
speeds AOB 10kts. Mid-level clouds upstream may move into the area
with time. Most convection to the west should remain separated from
terminal space. Exception may be STJ where low confidence of
convection is possible late tonight or tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250847
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The main concern in for today will continue to be the heat. However,
in the very short term, early this morning, a broken line of
convection has blossomed across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. This is in response to isentropic ascent along
the 310K surface. This will look to begin weakening around daybreak
but may provide extra clouds through the morning hours. This may
keep temperatures from skyrocketing this morning but mostly sunny
skies will prevail today. 850mb temperatures will be very similar
to yesterday and with the same airmass in place, have keep
temperatures close to yesterday with highs in the 90s. Factoring in
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and heat index values will
again be in the 100-105 range and as such a heat advisory remains in
effect until 8PM tonight.

An upper level low this morning is moving northeast from North
Dakota into the Canadian Plains. This upper low is forcing a weak
cold front into the region. The main question is how far south this
front will sag today. Models are mainly in agreement that the front
will remain north of the forecast area perhaps clipping extreme
northwest Missouri. Tonight moisture will pool along this boundary
as a 30-40KT southwesterly LLJ will spark thunderstorms to develop
along and north of the front across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. As such have slight chance to chance POPs
north of an MCI to Macon line tonight.

The aforementioned cold front will then get hung up across the
northern CWA Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge axis,
which has brought the recent spell of hot weather, remains stout
across the southern Missouri. As such, temperatures will remain hot
Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception perhaps being across the
northern CWA in the area of the front. Highs will range in the upper
80s to upper 90s on Tuesday and from the mid 80s to the mid 90s
Wednesday. Chance to slight chance POPs are possible both days in
the vicinity of the front however with extremely weak forcing and
weak upper flow chances seem low during the day but may be increased
during the night time hours due to a weak LLJ.

The main feature of interest in the extended period will be an upper
level trough which is moving through the Pacific Northwest this
morning. This trough is progged to dig southward into the Great
Basin by Wednesday morning and develop an upper low. Previous model
runs of the GFS has depicted a more progressive open wave forcing a
front into the CWA Tuesday night/Wednesday. However, recent runs has
shown the GFS come more in line with the EC/GEM/NAM in developing an
upper low across the Great Basin and slowing down the system. The
GFS does however still show a faster progression of the system from
the Great Basin into the Plains. It is this upper system that will
finally force a slow moving cold front through the region. This slow
moving cold front could produce several periods of precipitation
across the area from Thursday through Sunday. As such chance POPs
are in the forecast from Thursday through Saturday night with only
slight chances on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s Thursday and Friday. As the cold front moves through on
Saturday highs will become more seasonable for Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the low to mid 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

VFR expected through the period. Southerly winds will continue with
speeds AOB 10kts. Mid-level clouds upstream may move into the area
with time. Most convection to the west should remain separated from
terminal space. Exception may be STJ where low confidence of
convection is possible late tonight or tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair







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