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000
FXUS63 KEAX 061943
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
243 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Deep ridge within an omega pattern will begin to break down tonight,
allowing a cold front to drop in from the north overnight. This
feature will reach far northern Missouri later Saturday morning where
it will stall out. A few showers or storms are possible along the
front Saturday morning, particularly over far northwest Missouri
where a low-level jet will feed into this feature. However, ridging
will leave a moisture- starved airmass ahead of the front and make it
difficult to get much more than an isolated shower or two. Any
activity that does develop should dissipate later Saturday morning as
the forcing from the LLJ is lost, leaving mostly dry conditions
across the area through the remainder of the afternoon.

Precipitation chances will increase again Saturday night into Sunday
as the ridge moves eastward and energy begins to eject eastward ahead
of the deep trough to the west. Highest precipitation chances through
Saturday morning will again be across northern Missouri and northeast
KS in closer proximity to the stalled boundary. This activity will
expand in coverage Sunday evening and overnight when the LLJ will
again surge back into the region and interact with the boundary over
northern Missouri. This could lead to an inch or more of rainfall for
some areas. Better instability and shear will be well to our west
through this time, so most strong to severe storms should be focused
across central KS.

One or more additional rounds of showers and storms will overspread
the region Monday and Tuesday when as the upper trough slowly
progresses eastward. Additional heavy rain is a possibility, as well
as a few strong storms, but details will be highly dependent on how
convection evolves Sunday and Sunday night as well as any small-scale
features embedded in the upper trough. Eventually the boundary will
settle to the south of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as the
upper flow becomes more quasi- zonal. Can`t rule out a few post-
frontal showers during this time, but this is unlikely to be very
heavy.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 150 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Quiet weather next 24 hours, clear skies and light south-southwest
winds.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel





000
FXUS63 KEAX 061943
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
243 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Deep ridge within an omega pattern will begin to break down tonight,
allowing a cold front to drop in from the north overnight. This
feature will reach far northern Missouri later Saturday morning where
it will stall out. A few showers or storms are possible along the
front Saturday morning, particularly over far northwest Missouri
where a low-level jet will feed into this feature. However, ridging
will leave a moisture- starved airmass ahead of the front and make it
difficult to get much more than an isolated shower or two. Any
activity that does develop should dissipate later Saturday morning as
the forcing from the LLJ is lost, leaving mostly dry conditions
across the area through the remainder of the afternoon.

Precipitation chances will increase again Saturday night into Sunday
as the ridge moves eastward and energy begins to eject eastward ahead
of the deep trough to the west. Highest precipitation chances through
Saturday morning will again be across northern Missouri and northeast
KS in closer proximity to the stalled boundary. This activity will
expand in coverage Sunday evening and overnight when the LLJ will
again surge back into the region and interact with the boundary over
northern Missouri. This could lead to an inch or more of rainfall for
some areas. Better instability and shear will be well to our west
through this time, so most strong to severe storms should be focused
across central KS.

One or more additional rounds of showers and storms will overspread
the region Monday and Tuesday when as the upper trough slowly
progresses eastward. Additional heavy rain is a possibility, as well
as a few strong storms, but details will be highly dependent on how
convection evolves Sunday and Sunday night as well as any small-scale
features embedded in the upper trough. Eventually the boundary will
settle to the south of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as the
upper flow becomes more quasi- zonal. Can`t rule out a few post-
frontal showers during this time, but this is unlikely to be very
heavy.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 150 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Quiet weather next 24 hours, clear skies and light south-southwest
winds.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel





000
FXUS63 KEAX 061850
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
150 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Short Term (Today through Sunday night):

Omega blocking pattern will continue over the CONUS today with a
closed upper low over the Southwestern states and another across the
Mid-Atlantic states. Between these two features, strong upper level
ridging will reside across the Plains. This upper level ridging
nosing into the area combined with a return to southwesterly flow at
the surface on the back side of a retreating surface high will allow
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s today. Saturday, the
upper level pattern begins to break down as the upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic weakens. This will allow the upper ridge axis to move
over the area albeit less amplified. During the afternoon, a back
door cold front associated with an upper level trough moving through
the Great Lakes will slowly sink into the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along this front during the afternoon
across northern Missouri although forcing and moisture will be
limiting factors. Highs across northern Missouri where storms and
additional cloud cover will reside will keep highs in the upper 70s
however, further south, highs will again reach the low to mid 80s.
The front will stall across the CWA Saturday night. A noctural
southwesterly LLJ will increase to 40-50kts overriding the boundary
and allowing for ascent. Thunderstorms will develop across northern
Missouri and an isolated severe storm capable of producing large
hail could develop. Sunday the upper level trough that was over the
southwestern Conus will move out into the central High Plains.
Several lead shortwave will eject out ahead of the upper level
system providing for showers and thunderstorms during day Sunday.
Severe weather should remain west of the area on Sunday/Sunday night
where the better upper level forcing will reside.

Extended Term: (Monday through Thursday):

The extended period continues to look unsettled with several chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Monday, the upper level system moves
slowly into the central Plains with an attendant cold front across
the eastern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along this front Monday. Severe potential will hinge on
whether or not afternoon instability can be generated after morning
showers and storms. Tuesday, the upper level system weakens as it
moves into the Upper Midwest slowly dragging the surface front
across the CWA and continuing storm chances. Right now, the best
window for a brief respite to precipitation may come Tuesday night.
However, another upper level trough will quickly move into the
northern Plains on the heels of the departing trough. This will
force another slow moving front through the area on Wednesday with
yet another round of storms. The upper trough will move through the
Midwest Thursday continuing showers and thunderstorm chances into
Thursday. Temperatures will range between the upper 60s to mid 70s
through this period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 150 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Quiet weather next 24 hours, clear skies and light south-southwest
winds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Hawblitzel





000
FXUS63 KEAX 061053
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Short Term (Today through Sunday night):

Omega blocking pattern will continue over the CONUS today with a
closed upper low over the Southwestern states and another across the
Mid-Atlantic states. Between these two features, strong upper level
ridging will reside across the Plains. This upper level ridging
nosing into the area combined with a return to southwesterly flow at
the surface on the back side of a retreating surface high will allow
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s today. Saturday, the
upper level pattern begins to break down as the upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic weakens. This will allow the upper ridge axis to move
over the area albeit less amplified. During the afternoon, a back
door cold front associated with an upper level trough moving through
the Great Lakes will slowly sink into the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along this front during the afternoon
across northern Missouri although forcing and moisture will be
limiting factors. Highs across northern Missouri where storms and
additional cloud cover will reside will keep highs in the upper 70s
however, further south, highs will again reach the low to mid 80s.
The front will stall across the CWA Saturday night. A noctural
southwesterly LLJ will increase to 40-50kts overriding the boundary
and allowing for ascent. Thunderstorms will develop across northern
Missouri and an isolated severe storm capable of producing large
hail could develop. Sunday the upper level trough that was over the
southwestern Conus will move out into the central High Plains.
Several lead shortwave will eject out ahead of the upper level
system providing for showers and thunderstorms during day Sunday.
Severe weather should remain west of the area on Sunday/Sunday night
where the better upper level forcing will reside.

Extended Term: (Monday through Thursday):

The extended period continues to look unsettled with several chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Monday, the upper level system moves
slowly into the central Plains with an attendant cold front across
the eastern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along this front Monday. Severe potential will hinge on
whether or not afternoon instability can be generated after morning
showers and storms. Tuesday, the upper level system weakens as it
moves into the Upper Midwest slowly dragging the surface front
across the CWA and continuing storm chances. Right now, the best
window for a brief respite to precipitation may come Tuesday night.
However, another upper level trough will quickly move into the
northern Plains on the heels of the departing trough. This will
force another slow moving front through the area on Wednesday with
yet another round of storms. The upper trough will move through the
Midwest Thursday continuing showers and thunderstorm chances into
Thursday. Temperatures will range between the upper 60s to mid 70s
through this period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with clr skies. Winds will be out
of the S-SSW btn 5-10kts thru the pd.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73





000
FXUS63 KEAX 060844
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Short Term (Today through Sunday night):

Omega blocking pattern will continue over the CONUS today with a
closed upper low over the Southwestern states and another across the
Mid-Atlantic states. Between these two features, strong upper level
ridging will reside across the Plains. This upper level ridging
nosing into the area combined with a return to southwesterly flow at
the surface on the back side of a retreating surface high will allow
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s today. Saturday, the
upper level pattern begins to break down as the upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic weakens. This will allow the upper ridge axis to move
over the area albeit less amplified. During the afternoon, a back
door cold front associated with an upper level trough moving through
the Great Lakes will slowly sink into the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along this front during the afternoon
across northern Missouri although forcing and moisture will be
limiting factors. Highs across northern Missouri where storms and
additional cloud cover will reside will keep highs in the upper 70s
however, further south, highs will again reach the low to mid 80s.
The front will stall across the CWA Saturday night. A noctural
southwesterly LLJ will increase to 40-50kts overriding the boundary
and allowing for ascent. Thunderstorms will develop across northern
Missouri and an isolated severe storm capable of producing large
hail could develop. Sunday the upper level trough that was over the
southwestern Conus will move out into the central High Plains.
Several lead shortwave will eject out ahead of the upper level
system providing for showers and thunderstorms during day Sunday.
Severe weather should remain west of the area on Sunday/Sunday night
where the better upper level forcing will reside.

Extended Term: (Monday through Thursday):

The extended period continues to look unsettled with several chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Monday, the upper level system moves
slowly into the central Plains with an attendant cold front across
the eastern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along this front Monday. Severe potential will hinge on
whether or not afternoon instability can be generated after morning
showers and storms. Tuesday, the upper level system weakens as it
moves into the Upper Midwest slowly dragging the surface front
across the CWA and continuing storm chances. Right now, the best
window for a brief respite to precipitation may come Tuesday night.
However, another upper level trough will quickly move into the
northern Plains on the heels of the departing trough. This will
force another slow moving front through the area on Wednesday with
yet another round of storms. The upper trough will move through the
Midwest Thursday continuing showers and thunderstorm chances into
Thursday. Temperatures will range between the upper 60s to mid 70s
through this period.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Expect winds to switch to the south-southwest Friday morning as high
pressure moves off to the east.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...MJ





000
FXUS63 KEAX 060504
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Quiet, dry conditions will continue tonight and Friday as surface
high pressure drifts across the region; and warmer temperatures in
the low 80s are anticipated Friday afternoon as southwesterly flow
begins to return on the back side of the departing low and thermal
ridging bulges eastward across the Plains.

The primary focus remains the thunderstorm chances this weekend as
southwesterly flow returns aloft and moisture returns to the region.
Specifics are still a bit up in the air due to model differences of
small scale features, but storms are expected to focus in three main
periods this weekend and into early next week. First, a warm front
will set up somewhere between northern MO and central IA on Saturday
morning, then will stall and eventually slowly sink southward across
the forecast area. Scattered showers and storms will develop along
the boundary and traverse the CWA slowly on Saturday, and a few
could become strong where shear is locally enhanced in the vicinity
of the front. Timing, location, and severity of these storms will
depend on the starting position of the front and how quickly it
sinks southward, but most models indicate that the majority of the
CWA will start out in the warm sector and build a decent amount of
instability before fropa, indicating that both low-level shear and
CAPE should be adequate for a few organized/strong storms.

On Sunday, the aforementioned front should wash out as surface low
pressure deepens across the High Plains and flow ahead of the trough
turns southerly in response, bringing our forecast area firmly into
the warm sector Sunday through Sunday night. A few scattered storms
are possible especially after sunset Sunday evening as isentropic
lift increases, but should not become strong without deep layer
shear or a good forcing mechanism for convection. These nocturnal
storms could junk up the atmosphere on Monday and prevent much
instability from developing, but a round of more robust storms is
still expected Monday evening through Monday night as a shortwave
trough pushes the cold front/dryline sitting over the High Plains
eastward. Isolated storms should develop in a fairly unadulterated
environment west of our forecast area, and will become more numerous
and less organized as they translate east, likely transitioning any
strong/severe storm threat to wind and perhaps some small hail. This
scenario could change if the timing of the shortwave trough changes
dramatically, but has been fairly consistent over the last several
days.

Thunderstorm chances will temporarily end Tuesday after the
departure of this system, but should return quickly as another
trough pushes into the region mid- to late-week. Temperatures
through the weekend and into next week will be moderated by cloud
cover and precipitation, but should remain warm with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, and highs in the 70s or 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Expect winds to switch to the south-southwest Friday morning as high
pressure moves off to the east.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ





000
FXUS63 KEAX 052349
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
649 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Quiet, dry conditions will continue tonight and Friday as surface
high pressure drifts across the region; and warmer temperatures in
the low 80s are anticipated Friday afternoon as southwesterly flow
begins to return on the back side of the departing low and thermal
ridging bulges eastward across the Plains.

The primary focus remains the thunderstorm chances this weekend as
southwesterly flow returns aloft and moisture returns to the region.
Specifics are still a bit up in the air due to model differences of
small scale features, but storms are expected to focus in three main
periods this weekend and into early next week. First, a warm front
will set up somewhere between northern MO and central IA on Saturday
morning, then will stall and eventually slowly sink southward across
the forecast area. Scattered showers and storms will develop along
the boundary and traverse the CWA slowly on Saturday, and a few
could become strong where shear is locally enhanced in the vicinity
of the front. Timing, location, and severity of these storms will
depend on the starting position of the front and how quickly it
sinks southward, but most models indicate that the majority of the
CWA will start out in the warm sector and build a decent amount of
instability before fropa, indicating that both low-level shear and
CAPE should be adequate for a few organized/strong storms.

On Sunday, the aforementioned front should wash out as surface low
pressure deepens across the High Plains and flow ahead of the trough
turns southerly in response, bringing our forecast area firmly into
the warm sector Sunday through Sunday night. A few scattered storms
are possible especially after sunset Sunday evening as isentropic
lift increases, but should not become strong without deep layer
shear or a good forcing mechanism for convection. These nocturnal
storms could junk up the atmosphere on Monday and prevent much
instability from developing, but a round of more robust storms is
still expected Monday evening through Monday night as a shortwave
trough pushes the cold front/dryline sitting over the High Plains
eastward. Isolated storms should develop in a fairly unadulterated
environment west of our forecast area, and will become more numerous
and less organized as they translate east, likely transitioning any
strong/severe storm threat to wind and perhaps some small hail. This
scenario could change if the timing of the shortwave trough changes
dramatically, but has been fairly consistent over the last several
days.

Thunderstorm chances will temporarily end Tuesday after the
departure of this system, but should return quickly as another
trough pushes into the region mid- to late-week. Temperatures
through the weekend and into next week will be moderated by cloud
cover and precipitation, but should remain warm with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, and highs in the 70s or 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions with few if any clouds. Smoke aloft from Alberta
fires will waft through during the forecast period. High pressure
overhead will result in nearly calm winds for most of the night
before moving off to the east and allowing light southerly winds
tomorrow.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ





000
FXUS63 KEAX 052349
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
649 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Quiet, dry conditions will continue tonight and Friday as surface
high pressure drifts across the region; and warmer temperatures in
the low 80s are anticipated Friday afternoon as southwesterly flow
begins to return on the back side of the departing low and thermal
ridging bulges eastward across the Plains.

The primary focus remains the thunderstorm chances this weekend as
southwesterly flow returns aloft and moisture returns to the region.
Specifics are still a bit up in the air due to model differences of
small scale features, but storms are expected to focus in three main
periods this weekend and into early next week. First, a warm front
will set up somewhere between northern MO and central IA on Saturday
morning, then will stall and eventually slowly sink southward across
the forecast area. Scattered showers and storms will develop along
the boundary and traverse the CWA slowly on Saturday, and a few
could become strong where shear is locally enhanced in the vicinity
of the front. Timing, location, and severity of these storms will
depend on the starting position of the front and how quickly it
sinks southward, but most models indicate that the majority of the
CWA will start out in the warm sector and build a decent amount of
instability before fropa, indicating that both low-level shear and
CAPE should be adequate for a few organized/strong storms.

On Sunday, the aforementioned front should wash out as surface low
pressure deepens across the High Plains and flow ahead of the trough
turns southerly in response, bringing our forecast area firmly into
the warm sector Sunday through Sunday night. A few scattered storms
are possible especially after sunset Sunday evening as isentropic
lift increases, but should not become strong without deep layer
shear or a good forcing mechanism for convection. These nocturnal
storms could junk up the atmosphere on Monday and prevent much
instability from developing, but a round of more robust storms is
still expected Monday evening through Monday night as a shortwave
trough pushes the cold front/dryline sitting over the High Plains
eastward. Isolated storms should develop in a fairly unadulterated
environment west of our forecast area, and will become more numerous
and less organized as they translate east, likely transitioning any
strong/severe storm threat to wind and perhaps some small hail. This
scenario could change if the timing of the shortwave trough changes
dramatically, but has been fairly consistent over the last several
days.

Thunderstorm chances will temporarily end Tuesday after the
departure of this system, but should return quickly as another
trough pushes into the region mid- to late-week. Temperatures
through the weekend and into next week will be moderated by cloud
cover and precipitation, but should remain warm with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, and highs in the 70s or 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions with few if any clouds. Smoke aloft from Alberta
fires will waft through during the forecast period. High pressure
overhead will result in nearly calm winds for most of the night
before moving off to the east and allowing light southerly winds
tomorrow.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ





000
FXUS63 KEAX 052028
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
328 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Quiet, dry conditions will continue tonight and Friday as surface
high pressure drifts across the region; and warmer temperatures in
the low 80s are anticipated Friday afternoon as southwesterly flow
begins to return on the back side of the departing low and thermal
ridging bulges eastward across the Plains.

The primary focus remains the thunderstorm chances this weekend as
southwesterly flow returns aloft and moisture returns to the region.
Specifics are still a bit up in the air due to model differences of
small scale features, but storms are expected to focus in three main
periods this weekend and into early next week. First, a warm front
will set up somewhere between northern MO and central IA on Saturday
morning, then will stall and eventually slowly sink southward across
the forecast area. Scattered showers and storms will develop along
the boundary and traverse the CWA slowly on Saturday, and a few
could become strong where shear is locally enhanced in the vicinity
of the front. Timing, location, and severity of these storms will
depend on the starting position of the front and how quickly it
sinks southward, but most models indicate that the majority of the
CWA will start out in the warm sector and build a decent amount of
instability before fropa, indicating that both low-level shear and
CAPE should be adequate for a few organized/strong storms.

On Sunday, the aforementioned front should wash out as surface low
pressure deepens across the High Plains and flow ahead of the trough
turns southerly in response, bringing our forecast area firmly into
the warm sector Sunday through Sunday night. A few scattered storms
are possible especially after sunset Sunday evening as isentropic
lift increases, but should not become strong without deep layer
shear or a good forcing mechanism for convection. These nocturnal
storms could junk up the atmosphere on Monday and prevent much
instability from developing, but a round of more robust storms is
still expected Monday evening through Monday night as a shortwave
trough pushes the cold front/dryline sitting over the High Plains
eastward. Isolated storms should develop in a fairly unadulterated
environment west of our forecast area, and will become more numerous
and less organized as they translate east, likely transitioning any
strong/severe storm threat to wind and perhaps some small hail. This
scenario could change if the timing of the shortwave trough changes
dramatically, but has been fairly consistent over the last several
days.

Thunderstorm chances will temporarily end Tuesday after the
departure of this system, but should return quickly as another
trough pushes into the region mid- to late-week. Temperatures
through the weekend and into next week will be moderated by cloud
cover and precipitation, but should remain warm with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, and highs in the 70s or 80s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Mainly clear skies and light, variable winds will continue through
Friday morning, then winds should begin to increase out of the
southwest by mid- to late-morning Friday.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 051018
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
518 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Benign weather to continue through the remainder of the work week as
large-scale ridging seen over the Rockies this morning shifts east
with time. Meanwhile along the surface...high pressure expected to
drift over the area today with winds largely remaining light and
variable through the day. The combination of building heights along
with increasing 850-mb temps should allow highs to reach into the
lower to middle 70s across much of the area. Even warmer temps likely
Friday as southerly flow returns as high pressure settles well to
our southeast. The combination of good mixing and a modest downslope
component will likely allow for low 80s across many areas Friday
afternoon.

Another warm day likely on Saturday however this will be the start of
a fairly long period of unsettled weather as a frontal boundary
drifts south from the Central Plains/upper Miss Rvr Vly and stalls
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Models appear to be in favorable
agreement that this boundary will settle across northern
Missouri...with this feature acting as a focus for developing
convection as early as Saturday afternoon. From this vantage
point...most likely areas for convection Saturday afternoon will be
along and north of Route 36...with this activity gradually settling
south Saturday night as high pressure nosing in from the north
pushes the front further south overnight. While modest elevated
instability will likely limit updraft strength...we cannot rule out a
few stray marginally severe hail reports at this time.

Better forcing for ascent set to arrive Sunday and Sunday night as
large-scale upper low ejects east from the Central Rockies. As this
occurs...strengthening southerly flow ahead of a leeside low
pressure center dropping into the Plains should lift the stalled
front north of our area Sunday afternoon. This will allow developing
warm sector instability to fuel ongoing convection from Sunday night
into Monday morning. Main trough then expected to pivot through the
area Monday afternoon/evening with severe storms possible as pseudo
dryline/cold front marches east. Beyond this...front will once again
lift back north as a warm front by midweek as yet another strong
system slides out of the Rockies. With high pressure off the
Southeast coast...ample moisture advection north from the Gulf will
keep the threat for shwrs/storms ongoing through the end of the fcst
period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions to dominate through the period as high pressure
settles over the region. Winds will remain light and
variable...generally from the northeast today before shifting to the
south overnight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 050840
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Benign weather to continue through the remainder of the work week as
large-scale ridging seen over the Rockies this morning shifts east
with time. Meanwhile along the surface...high pressure expected to
drift over the area today with winds largely remaining light and
variable through the day. The combination of building heights along
with increasing 850-mb temps should allow highs to reach into the
lower to middle 70s across much of the area. Even warmer temps likely
Friday as southerly flow returns as high pressure settles well to
our southeast. The combination of good mixing and a modest downslope
component will likely allow for low 80s across many areas Friday
afternoon.

Another warm day likely on Saturday however this will be the start of
a fairly long period of unsettled weather as a frontal boundary
drifts south from the Central Plains/upper Miss Rvr Vly and stalls
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Models appear to be in favorable
agreement that this boundary will settle across northern
Missouri...with this feature acting as a focus for developing
convection as early as Saturday afternoon. From this vantage
point...most likely areas for convection Saturday afternoon will be
along and north of Route 36...with this activity gradually settling
south Saturday night as high pressure nosing in from the north
pushes the front further south overnight. While modest elevated
instability will likely limit updraft strength...we cannot rule out a
few stray marginally severe hail reports at this time.

Better forcing for ascent set to arrive Sunday and Sunday night as
large-scale upper low ejects east from the Central Rockies. As this
occurs...strengthening southerly flow ahead of a leeside low
pressure center dropping into the Plains should lift the stalled
front north of the area Sunday afternoon. This will allow developing
warm sector instability to fuel ongoing convection from Sunday night
into Monday morning. Main trough then expected to pivot through the
area Monday afternoon/evening with severe storms possible as pseudo
dryline/cold front marches east. Beyond this...active weather to
then continue right through the end of the fcst period as front once
again stalls across the area by midweek.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with light winds expected through the forecast as high
pressure moves through the region.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...CDB





000
FXUS63 KEAX 050430
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1130 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Deep upper-level ridge over the Rockies will be the dominant weather
feature for the next 2-3 days as it gradually shifts eastward into
the Plains. Subsidence within this feature will provide mostly clear
skies through Friday, while temperatures rise to near 80 degrees by
Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge inches eastward.

Upper ridge will break down over the weekend, allowing a cold front
to drop in from the north late Saturday while a deep upper-level
trough deepens to the west. This front will stall and become quasi-
stationary somewhere across our area Sunday and Monday, setting the
stage for a more active weather pattern early next week as the upper
trough to the west begins to track eastward. Several waves ejecting
out ahead of this trough and interacting with the boundary will
likely result in several rounds of rain and thunderstorms beginning
as early as Saturday afternoon and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
The better chances for any heavy rain and/or strong storms through
this time are probably Sunday night or Monday when the main upper
trough moves into the Plains, but a lot of smaller-scale details will
need to be determined before we can really start addressing these
threats.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with light winds expected through the forecast as high
pressure moves through the region.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB





000
FXUS63 KEAX 042323
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Deep upper-level ridge over the Rockies will be the dominant weather
feature for the next 2-3 days as it gradually shifts eastward into
the Plains. Subsidence within this feature will provide mostly clear
skies through Friday, while temperatures rise to near 80 degrees by
Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge inches eastward.

Upper ridge will break down over the weekend, allowing a cold front
to drop in from the north late Saturday while a deep upper-level
trough deepens to the west. This front will stall and become quasi-
stationary somewhere across our area Sunday and Monday, setting the
stage for a more active weather pattern early next week as the upper
trough to the west begins to track eastward. Several waves ejecting
out ahead of this trough and interacting with the boundary will
likely result in several rounds of rain and thunderstorms beginning
as early as Saturday afternoon and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
The better chances for any heavy rain and/or strong storms through
this time are probably Sunday night or Monday when the main upper
trough moves into the Plains, but a lot of smaller-scale details will
need to be determined before we can really start addressing these
threats.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

High pressure building into the area will ensure VFR conditions
through the forecast. While winds may be in the 10 to 20 mph range at
forecast issuance, they are expected to fall below 10 mph within an
hour or two and remain light through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB





000
FXUS63 KEAX 042323
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Deep upper-level ridge over the Rockies will be the dominant weather
feature for the next 2-3 days as it gradually shifts eastward into
the Plains. Subsidence within this feature will provide mostly clear
skies through Friday, while temperatures rise to near 80 degrees by
Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge inches eastward.

Upper ridge will break down over the weekend, allowing a cold front
to drop in from the north late Saturday while a deep upper-level
trough deepens to the west. This front will stall and become quasi-
stationary somewhere across our area Sunday and Monday, setting the
stage for a more active weather pattern early next week as the upper
trough to the west begins to track eastward. Several waves ejecting
out ahead of this trough and interacting with the boundary will
likely result in several rounds of rain and thunderstorms beginning
as early as Saturday afternoon and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
The better chances for any heavy rain and/or strong storms through
this time are probably Sunday night or Monday when the main upper
trough moves into the Plains, but a lot of smaller-scale details will
need to be determined before we can really start addressing these
threats.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

High pressure building into the area will ensure VFR conditions
through the forecast. While winds may be in the 10 to 20 mph range at
forecast issuance, they are expected to fall below 10 mph within an
hour or two and remain light through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB





000
FXUS63 KEAX 041934
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Deep upper-level ridge over the Rockies will be the dominant weather
feature for the next 2-3 days as it gradually shifts eastward into
the Plains. Subsidence within this feature will provide mostly clear
skies through Friday, while temperatures rise to near 80 degrees by
Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge inches eastward.

Upper ridge will break down over the weekend, allowing a cold front
to drop in from the north late Saturday while a deep upper-level
trough deepens to the west. This front will stall and become quasi-
stationary somewhere across our area Sunday and Monday, setting the
stage for a more active weather pattern early next week as the upper
trough to the west begins to track eastward. Several waves ejecting
out ahead of this trough and interacting with the boundary will
likely result in several rounds of rain and thunderstorms beginning
as early as Saturday afternoon and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
The better chances for any heavy rain and/or strong storms through
this time are probably Sunday night or Monday when the main upper
trough moves into the Plains, but a lot of smaller-scale details will
need to be determined before we can really start addressing these
threats.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A few cumulus clouds over parts of MO will be quick to dissipate
later this afternoon, while winds slowly die down through the
evening.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel





000
FXUS63 KEAX 041934
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Deep upper-level ridge over the Rockies will be the dominant weather
feature for the next 2-3 days as it gradually shifts eastward into
the Plains. Subsidence within this feature will provide mostly clear
skies through Friday, while temperatures rise to near 80 degrees by
Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge inches eastward.

Upper ridge will break down over the weekend, allowing a cold front
to drop in from the north late Saturday while a deep upper-level
trough deepens to the west. This front will stall and become quasi-
stationary somewhere across our area Sunday and Monday, setting the
stage for a more active weather pattern early next week as the upper
trough to the west begins to track eastward. Several waves ejecting
out ahead of this trough and interacting with the boundary will
likely result in several rounds of rain and thunderstorms beginning
as early as Saturday afternoon and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
The better chances for any heavy rain and/or strong storms through
this time are probably Sunday night or Monday when the main upper
trough moves into the Plains, but a lot of smaller-scale details will
need to be determined before we can really start addressing these
threats.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A few cumulus clouds over parts of MO will be quick to dissipate
later this afternoon, while winds slowly die down through the
evening.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel





000
FXUS63 KEAX 041723
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Current satellite imagery and surface obs show a weak cold front
moving through the Midwest. A few small showers popped up across
north-central Missouri overnight, but little if any rain fell over
much of the area. The bulk of the activity remained further east
across Illinois. Surface temperatures warmed into the upper 50s
ahead of the cold front, but will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s
once the front passes through. A few cumulus clouds will be possible
today and with decent mixing of the lower levels, temperatures
should quickly rebound with highs in the mid and upper 60s...similar
to yesterday albeit a bit more breezy. Gusty winds and lower relative
humidity values will increase fire concerns this afternoon, but
recent green- up of fuels across the region should help mitigate fire
risk.

Upper level ridge positioned over the inter-mountain west and High
Plains will dominate the weather through the remainder of the work
week before breaking down as a large trough moves onshore and into
the Great Basin. Surface moisture will gradually increase by Friday
as the Gulf begins to open. Thermal ridge axis will set up just to
the west over Kansas and extending up into South Dakota and NW Iowa
by Friday. Decent mixing to near 850mb and WWA will allow Friday
afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
across the CWA.

A return of active weather by the weekend as a warm front settles
across northern Missouri on Saturday and will be the focus for
convection starting Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday.
Slow moving western trough will bring several round of precipitation
to the Plains until the associated cold front finally sweeps through
Tuesday. Too far out in time to nail down any real specifics, but a
round of two of severe weather cannot be ruled out this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A few cumulus clouds over parts of MO will be quick to dissipate
later this afternoon, while winds slowly die down through the
evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Hawblitzel





000
FXUS63 KEAX 041723
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Current satellite imagery and surface obs show a weak cold front
moving through the Midwest. A few small showers popped up across
north-central Missouri overnight, but little if any rain fell over
much of the area. The bulk of the activity remained further east
across Illinois. Surface temperatures warmed into the upper 50s
ahead of the cold front, but will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s
once the front passes through. A few cumulus clouds will be possible
today and with decent mixing of the lower levels, temperatures
should quickly rebound with highs in the mid and upper 60s...similar
to yesterday albeit a bit more breezy. Gusty winds and lower relative
humidity values will increase fire concerns this afternoon, but
recent green- up of fuels across the region should help mitigate fire
risk.

Upper level ridge positioned over the inter-mountain west and High
Plains will dominate the weather through the remainder of the work
week before breaking down as a large trough moves onshore and into
the Great Basin. Surface moisture will gradually increase by Friday
as the Gulf begins to open. Thermal ridge axis will set up just to
the west over Kansas and extending up into South Dakota and NW Iowa
by Friday. Decent mixing to near 850mb and WWA will allow Friday
afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
across the CWA.

A return of active weather by the weekend as a warm front settles
across northern Missouri on Saturday and will be the focus for
convection starting Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday.
Slow moving western trough will bring several round of precipitation
to the Plains until the associated cold front finally sweeps through
Tuesday. Too far out in time to nail down any real specifics, but a
round of two of severe weather cannot be ruled out this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A few cumulus clouds over parts of MO will be quick to dissipate
later this afternoon, while winds slowly die down through the
evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Hawblitzel





000
FXUS63 KEAX 041101
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
601 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Current satellite imagery and surface obs show a weak cold front
moving through the Midwest. A few small showers popped up across
north-central Missouri overnight, but little if any rain fell over
much of the area. The bulk of the activity remained further east
across Illinois. Surface temperatures warmed into the upper 50s
ahead of the cold front, but will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s
once the front passes through. A few cumulus clouds will be possible
today and with decent mixing of the lower levels, temperatures
should quickly rebound with highs in the mid and upper 60s...similar
to yesterday albeit a bit more breezy. Gusty winds and lower relative
humidity values will increase fire concerns this afternoon, but
recent green- up of fuels across the region should help mitigate fire
risk.

Upper level ridge positioned over the inter-mountain west and High
Plains will dominate the weather through the remainder of the work
week before breaking down as a large trough moves onshore and into
the Great Basin. Surface moisture will gradually increase by Friday
as the Gulf begins to open. Thermal ridge axis will set up just to
the west over Kansas and extending up into South Dakota and NW Iowa
by Friday. Decent mixing to near 850mb and WWA will allow Friday
afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
across the CWA.

A return of active weather by the weekend as a warm front settles
across northern Missouri on Saturday and will be the focus for
convection starting Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday.
Slow moving western trough will bring several round of precipitation
to the Plains until the associated cold front finally sweeps through
Tuesday. Too far out in time to nail down any real specifics, but a
round of two of severe weather cannot be ruled out this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will become
northwesterly this morning behind a cold front that is currently
passing through the region. Diurnal mixing will allow for gusty
northwest winds through the afternoon...becoming light overnight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM





000
FXUS63 KEAX 041101
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
601 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Current satellite imagery and surface obs show a weak cold front
moving through the Midwest. A few small showers popped up across
north-central Missouri overnight, but little if any rain fell over
much of the area. The bulk of the activity remained further east
across Illinois. Surface temperatures warmed into the upper 50s
ahead of the cold front, but will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s
once the front passes through. A few cumulus clouds will be possible
today and with decent mixing of the lower levels, temperatures
should quickly rebound with highs in the mid and upper 60s...similar
to yesterday albeit a bit more breezy. Gusty winds and lower relative
humidity values will increase fire concerns this afternoon, but
recent green- up of fuels across the region should help mitigate fire
risk.

Upper level ridge positioned over the inter-mountain west and High
Plains will dominate the weather through the remainder of the work
week before breaking down as a large trough moves onshore and into
the Great Basin. Surface moisture will gradually increase by Friday
as the Gulf begins to open. Thermal ridge axis will set up just to
the west over Kansas and extending up into South Dakota and NW Iowa
by Friday. Decent mixing to near 850mb and WWA will allow Friday
afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
across the CWA.

A return of active weather by the weekend as a warm front settles
across northern Missouri on Saturday and will be the focus for
convection starting Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday.
Slow moving western trough will bring several round of precipitation
to the Plains until the associated cold front finally sweeps through
Tuesday. Too far out in time to nail down any real specifics, but a
round of two of severe weather cannot be ruled out this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will become
northwesterly this morning behind a cold front that is currently
passing through the region. Diurnal mixing will allow for gusty
northwest winds through the afternoon...becoming light overnight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM





000
FXUS63 KEAX 040918
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Current satellite imagery and surface obs show a weak cold front
moving through the Midwest. A few small showers popped up across
north-central Missouri overnight, but little if any rain fell over
much of the area. The bulk of the activity remained further east
across Illinois. Surface temperatures warmed into the upper 50s
ahead of the cold front, but will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s
once the front passes through. A few cumulus clouds will be possible
today and with decent mixing of the lower levels, temperatures
should quickly rebound with highs in the mid and upper 60s...similar
to yesterday albeit a bit more breezy.

Upper level ridge positioned over the inter-mountain west and High
Plains will dominate the weather through the remainder of the work
week before breaking down as a large trough moves onshore and into
the Great Basin. Surface moisture will gradually increase by Friday
as the Gulf begins to open. Thermal ridge axis will set up just to
the west over Kansas and extending up into South Dakota and NW Iowa
by Friday. Decent mixing to near 850mb and WWA will allow Friday
afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
across the CWA.

A return of active weather by the weekend as a warm front settles
across northern Missouri on Saturday and will be the focus for
convection starting Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday.
Slow moving western trough will bring several round of precipitation
to the Plains until the associated cold front finally sweeps through
Tuesday. Too far out in time to nail down any real specifics, but a
round of two of severe weather cannot be ruled out this weekend and
early next week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A weak cold front will slide south and through northern MO overnight,
reaching the MO River around sunrise. Just ahead of the front a band
of mid level clouds with ceilings aoa 7K ft agl will last for several
hours early this morning. Isolated light showers/sprinkles possible
over northeast MO through around 10z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
northerly winds becoming gusty by late morning and diminishing
shortly before sunset.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...MJ





000
FXUS63 KEAX 040511
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1211 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Quiet weather will continue over the next several days as upper-
level ridging continues to dominate the pattern across the central
U.S., bringing the main focus in the forecast period to the weekend
ahead.

In the short term, a weak cold front will slide through the
region tomorrow morning, slightly reducing temperatures and veering
and increasing winds; but without any moisture, skies should remain
clear and allow temperatures to still warm into the mid to upper 60s
throughout the forecast area. Warmer temperatures are then expected
for Thursday and especially Friday when surface flow returns to the
south and thermal ridging over the High Plains edges eastward,
possibly allowing us to reach the 80 degree mark Friday afternoon.

More active weather is anticipated this weekend as an upper trough
digs into the southwestern U.S. and allows a series of shortwave
troughs to eject out into the central Plains. Showers and storms
will become increasingly likely through the weekend and into early
next week; however, severe weather chances and precipitation timing
is still very uncertain since the parent trough for any of these
little waves is still not onshore. Moisture availability will
initially be a concern with surface high pressure parked over the
region through midday Friday, but it appears that the best forcing
for storms will remain west of the region until moisture has had
several days to return to our CWA, and should be adequate. The first
concern for storms will come Saturday afternoon and evening when the
GFS -- and to a somewhat lesser extent the EC -- drapes a warm front
across portions of northern MO, which could be a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development. Scattered isentropic lift/warm sector
convection will then support continued precipitation chances through
the weekend, eventually focusing and then ending after a cold front
sweeps through Monday night or Tuesday morning. *If* the pattern does
not shift much, the primary concerns for severe weather will come
with the warm front on Saturday evening, and again Monday night along
and ahead of the cold front. Saturday`s chances could be limited by
moisture availability, a different position of the warm front, or
cloud cover in the vicinity of the warm front; and storm strength on
Monday night will depend on the timing of the cold front, the
strength of storms when they develop west of the region earlier that
evening, and how much instability can build Monday if warm sector
convection exists during the daylight hours. High temperatures this
weekend will also be moderated by precipitation chances, but the
overall pattern supports above normal temperatures especially during
the overnight periods.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A weak cold front will slide south and through northern MO overnight,
reaching the MO River around sunrise. Just ahead of the front a band
of mid level clouds with ceilings aoa 7K ft agl will last for several
hours early this morning. Isolated light showers/sprinkles possible
over northeast MO through around 10z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
northerly winds becoming gusty by late morning and diminishing
shortly before sunset.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ





000
FXUS63 KEAX 032330
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Quiet weather will continue over the next several days as upper-
level ridging continues to dominate the pattern across the central
U.S., bringing the main focus in the forecast period to the weekend
ahead.

In the short term, a weak cold front will slide through the
region tomorrow morning, slightly reducing temperatures and veering
and increasing winds; but without any moisture, skies should remain
clear and allow temperatures to still warm into the mid to upper 60s
throughout the forecast area. Warmer temperatures are then expected
for Thursday and especially Friday when surface flow returns to the
south and thermal ridging over the High Plains edges eastward,
possibly allowing us to reach the 80 degree mark Friday afternoon.

More active weather is anticipated this weekend as an upper trough
digs into the southwestern U.S. and allows a series of shortwave
troughs to eject out into the central Plains. Showers and storms
will become increasingly likely through the weekend and into early
next week; however, severe weather chances and precipitation timing
is still very uncertain since the parent trough for any of these
little waves is still not onshore. Moisture availability will
initially be a concern with surface high pressure parked over the
region through midday Friday, but it appears that the best forcing
for storms will remain west of the region until moisture has had
several days to return to our CWA, and should be adequate. The first
concern for storms will come Saturday afternoon and evening when the
GFS -- and to a somewhat lesser extent the EC -- drapes a warm front
across portions of northern MO, which could be a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development. Scattered isentropic lift/warm sector
convection will then support continued precipitation chances through
the weekend, eventually focusing and then ending after a cold front
sweeps through Monday night or Tuesday morning. *If* the pattern does
not shift much, the primary concerns for severe weather will come
with the warm front on Saturday evening, and again Monday night along
and ahead of the cold front. Saturday`s chances could be limited by
moisture availability, a different position of the warm front, or
cloud cover in the vicinity of the warm front; and storm strength on
Monday night will depend on the timing of the cold front, the
strength of storms when they develop west of the region earlier that
evening, and how much instability can build Monday if warm sector
convection exists during the daylight hours. High temperatures this
weekend will also be moderated by precipitation chances, but the
overall pattern supports above normal temperatures especially during
the overnight periods.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR conditions through the forecast period with minimal cloud cover
at the terminals. Weak cold front drops south late tonight with winds
veering to the northwest with passage. Isolated showers possible over
northeast MO after midnight with the cold front. Thicker mid clouds
too. Winds will increase by late morning with occasional gusts over
20kt.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ





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