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000
FXUS63 KEAX 310459
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Thunderstorms have popped up across southern and western portions of
the forecast area with additional smaller cells making an appearance
across NW MO. The trend over the next few hours will be for these
areas to continue to see activity until after sunset, at which point
intensity and coverage should wane as these storms are primarily
diurnally-driven. Plentiful instability and steep lapse rates have
been assisting the storms to quickly pulse up toward sub-severe to
perhaps just shy of severe levels but quickly comes back down in
intensity. Shear is rather weak and the storms have had a history of
becoming outflow dominated shortly after their maturation so any
severe threat is expected to be on the low side with any stronger
storm that may develop. As for heavy rain potential, that is
certainly a possibility for these storms given the increasing PWAT
values throughout the day. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1.4 to
1.5 inches of precipitable water values creeping in across the
southern third of the forecast area. These values are within the 90th
percentile as compared to normal for this time of year. All of this
said, the primary hazards will be gusty to perhaps damaging winds,
hail, and locally heavy rainfall. With a 700mb ridge just off toward
the east of the area, storms will generally follow the south-to-north
movement they`ve been on but flow at this level is rather weak so
they`ll not only be slow to move, but potentially allow themselves to
become latched onto localized boundaries that may linger in the area.
Coupling the aforementioned discussion about heavy rain with the slow
movement of these storms, flooding will be a possibility tonight,
especially in areas where flash flood guidance is rather low, thanks
to all of the recent rainfall.

For tomorrow, chances for storms to become strong to perhaps severe
look better given the incoming upper-level trough axis swinging
through, assisting with keeping a frontal boundary moving along.
Moisture out ahead of the front will be abundant and once again
coupled with plentiful instability and steep lapse rates, storms
pulsing up in severity will be possible. Again though, the limiting
factor will be the lack of decent shear. Front looks to start coming
through the NW part of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours, making most of its way through the area by Wednesday
morning. Can`t rule out continued precip chances well into Wednesday
across the south and east, even though the front may have cleared, as
the aforementioned trough aloft traverses through.

Once the upper trough moves through, the latter half of the week will
be drier and seasonably warm as surface high pressure takes control.
The next chance for storms arrives next weekend with the next frontal
boundary anticipated to move through. More details as that time
approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

A little bit of a challenging fcst going forward early this morning
as fcst models continue to hint at reduced visibilities by early
morning. Main caveat seen right now is upstream cloud cover
associated with Central Plains convection that will continue sliding
east during the early morning hrs. Due to this uncertainty...have
elected to offer MVFR restrictions at the three KC terminals...while
leaving out any mention out of STJ as model progs show the best
potential for fog across southeastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri. Beyond this...main shwr/storm activity expected to move
through the area during the mid-afternoon hrs with restrictions
down the MVFR and potentially IFR likely. Activity should come to an
end after the 03z time frame or so with improvements likely through
the conclusion of the fcst period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 302343
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Thunderstorms have popped up across southern and western portions of
the forecast area with additional smaller cells making an appearance
across NW MO. The trend over the next few hours will be for these
areas to continue to see activity until after sunset, at which point
intensity and coverage should wane as these storms are primarily
diurnally-driven. Plentiful instability and steep lapse rates have
been assisting the storms to quickly pulse up toward sub-severe to
perhaps just shy of severe levels but quickly comes back down in
intensity. Shear is rather weak and the storms have had a history of
becoming outflow dominated shortly after their maturation so any
severe threat is expected to be on the low side with any stronger
storm that may develop. As for heavy rain potential, that is
certainly a possibility for these storms given the increasing PWAT
values throughout the day. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1.4 to
1.5 inches of precipitable water values creeping in across the
southern third of the forecast area. These values are within the 90th
percentile as compared to normal for this time of year. All of this
said, the primary hazards will be gusty to perhaps damaging winds,
hail, and locally heavy rainfall. With a 700mb ridge just off toward
the east of the area, storms will generally follow the south-to-north
movement they`ve been on but flow at this level is rather weak so
they`ll not only be slow to move, but potentially allow themselves to
become latched onto localized boundaries that may linger in the area.
Coupling the aforementioned discussion about heavy rain with the slow
movement of these storms, flooding will be a possibility tonight,
especially in areas where flash flood guidance is rather low, thanks
to all of the recent rainfall.

For tomorrow, chances for storms to become strong to perhaps severe
look better given the incoming upper-level trough axis swinging
through, assisting with keeping a frontal boundary moving along.
Moisture out ahead of the front will be abundant and once again
coupled with plentiful instability and steep lapse rates, storms
pulsing up in severity will be possible. Again though, the limiting
factor will be the lack of decent shear. Front looks to start coming
through the NW part of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours, making most of its way through the area by Wednesday
morning. Can`t rule out continued precip chances well into Wednesday
across the south and east, even though the front may have cleared, as
the aforementioned trough aloft traverses through.

Once the upper trough moves through, the latter half of the week will
be drier and seasonably warm as surface high pressure takes control.
The next chance for storms arrives next weekend with the next frontal
boundary anticipated to move through. More details as that time
approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Convection across north-central Missouri and northeast Kansas is
beginning to dissipate with loss of daytime heating. Expect dry
conditions overnight with sct-bkn CI aloft with winds remaining from
the south and southeast between 3-7 kts. Fair wx cu initially
tomorrow will be followed by renewed shwr/storm chances after 21z as
main cold front approaches. As this activity moves in...expect
cig/vsby reductions into the MVFR flight category.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 301136
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Today - Wednesday:

Not much to hang one`s hat on to define where/when convection will
form or move in today. A weak and poorly defined warm front extends
from central NE through south central IA and northeast MO this
morning. Isolated/elevated convection aided by weak isentropic
ascent on the 305K surface has sputtered through the night across
the far northeastern counties. Think this lift will dissipate by mid
morning. Otherwise, think the CWA will be dry until this afternoon.
Inspection of local progged soundings reveals a very unstable
airmass with the CIN disappearing this afternoon. Short range
convective allowing models as well as GFS and NAM paint the picture
of hit and miss/pulse type convection. 0-6km shear is very weak so
convection will be sub-severe.

North TX MCS is heading towards the gulf and 00z/06z models not
handling this well which calls into question the vorticity max the
GFS and especially the NAM show over OK by 18z. For now will focus
on diurnally driven/pulse type convection. High temperatures should
be similar to yesterdays.

Overnight, convection generated along a weak cold front will likely
weaken as it heads towards northwest MO after midnight. This
activity could survive the typical morning dissipation phase and
sputter around before redeveloping in the afternoon. The
precipitation and how much/how long the convective cloud debris
linger will determine the degree of instability and later convective
potential/coverage. Even if we see moderate instability the severe
threat will again be muted by weak 0-6km shear in the 15-20kt range.

The cold front wont reach the region until Tuesday night as it
awaits the arrival of a moderately strong upstream shortwave. This
should ensure likely type PoPs into the evening hours.

Wednesday will start the transition to a drier period as the cold
front moves into central MO by late morning. Will keep high chance
PoPs over the southeast third of the CWA.

Thursday - Sunday:

A relatively uneventful and quiet period marked initially by drier
and more stable air arriving as weak high pressure builds into the
region. Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal
readings.

Faster northwest flow aloft resides across the north central and
Great Lakes states. Will need to monitor for any buckles in the flow
signaling a shortwave dropping southeast. GFS picks up on a feature
forcing a cold front through the mid MO River Valley late Saturday
whereas the ECMWF does not. Lacking confirmation and with the
blended approach only yielding below climatology PoPs will maintain
a dry forecast. Do see slightly warmer temperatures and an uptick
in humidity with the return of southerly flow.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VFR conditions with light south winds for the morning hours.
Diurnally driven hit and miss pulse type of afternoon convection.
Better chance for scattered convection moving into northwest MO after
midnight. Storms could reach the Kansas City terminals by the pre-
dawn hours. Ceilings still VFR but lower to the 8-10K agl level.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...MJ





000
FXUS63 KEAX 292112
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
412 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Thunderstorms currently erupting across central KS into northern OK
are anchored by boundaries in their vicinity. Localized moisture
pooling, an uncapped and unstable atmosphere, and steep lapse rates
are all contributing to the upscale growth this afternoon. While some
of these parameters bleed into the western portions of this forecast
area, the local atmosphere is drier, and without much for storms to
hang their hats on, chances of storm development and/or maintenance remains
low. Additionally, a lack of deep layer shear and a large-scale
lifting mechanism keeps storm growth spatially and temporally at bay.
Note though that the chances of pop-up pulsy storms are not nil -
they just remain on the low side.

Better convection chances arrive late tomorrow through early
Wednesday. While the area has had a bit of a break from the unsettled
pattern this weekend, a few more days of unsettled weather returns.
Surface southerly flow returns for Memorial Day and coupled with
another unstable atmosphere and steep lapse rates during the
afternoon, storms will be possible. However, 0-6km shear remains
marginal at best for organized development and severe potential so
the storm mode of choice will likely be pulsy in nature. As a frontal
boundary and upper-level trough approaches the area late Tuesday,
storm organization as well as coverage will be on the increase. Shear
will remain in question with respect to severe chances though.

For the latter half of the week, should finally see a decent period
of dry weather as surface high pressure visits the area. The next
chance for precip could arrive next weekend as a boundary and
seemingly weak trough axis rotates through but the limiting factor
could be moisture. Too far out at this point to linger on the details
at this point. Temperatures will be rather seasonable for this time
of year, ranging in the 70s and 80s throughout the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VFR is likely to prevail throughout the TAF period as thunderstorm
chances look to largely remain outside of the terminal areas, off
toward the south and west. However, can`t rule out a stray shower or
thunderstorm popping up in the vicinity this afternoon into this
evening. Lack of confidence in a direct impact to terminals precludes
mention in the TAF. Will AMD as necessary.

Through tonight, winds will become more southerly, allowing for more
moisture to advect into the region tomorrow. Convective chances will
be on the increase tomorrow but those increasing chances largely fall
outside of this period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg





000
FXUS63 KEAX 291751
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Despite moderate instability today, based on forecast soundings, a
lack of any kind of focus and just enough CINH should keep rain
chances at bay for most of the day. But convection should develop
during the afternoon over central to eastern Kansas and may drift
into extreme eastern Kansas and adjacent areas of Missouri. So will
maintain the slight chance for storms in this area for this
afternoon. Weak flow through the atmosphere combined with a lack of
any focus and modest CAPE suggest just air mass showers and storms if
anything develop and/or move into the area this afternoon. The
threat of anything severe as a result is very low.

This modest CAPE/ weak shear environment looks to persist through
the first half of the week and as a result will maintain a low
chance for showers and storms into Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday,
a cold front will begin to slowly move through the area. Storms may
develop on a prefrontal trough/convergent area Tuesday over
northwestern Missouri so feel likely PoPs are warranted during the
afternoon hours. The actual cold front looks to split the area by
midday on Wednesday with potentially widespread showers and storms.
For both days, the threat of severe weather looks low due to the
weak shear.

A much drier air mass will move into the area behind the front for
the later half of the week and into the weekend. This will lead to
dry weather Thursday through Saturday. Through this time, a
deepening upper ridge over the western half of the country will put
the area into northwesterly flow. For now, it doesn`t appear that a
wave strong enough to wring out any precipitation will move through
until Saturday night or Sunday. And since moisture is limited those
chances look fairly low at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VFR is likely to prevail throughout the TAF period as thunderstorm
chances look to largely remain outside of the terminal areas, off
toward the south and west. However, can`t rule out a stray shower or
thunderstorm popping up in the vicinity this afternoon into this
evening. Lack of confidence in a direct impact to terminals precludes
mention in the TAF. Will AMD as necessary.

Through tonight, winds will become more southerly, allowing for more
moisture to advect into the region tomorrow. Convective chances will
be on the increase tomorrow but those increasing chances largely fall
outside of this period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...lg





000
FXUS63 KEAX 282331
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Short range (Today through Tomorrow):

The upper level trough that has been our weather maker this week is
evident on water vapor imagery centered near Sioux Falls. This
trough is expected to move into the western Great Lakes by tonight.
Afternoon/early evening instability showers and thunderstorms,
mainly across northern Missouri will be possible as this upper trough
makes its progress through the region. Instability this afternoon
across northern Missouri is around 1000J/kg however the better shear
is north and east of the CWA. Consequently, isolated to widely
scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and early evening
but with a weakening upper trough and a loss of instability near
sunset, storms will diminish. Dry conditions are then expected
tonight through the day on Sunday. Height rises during the day
tomorrow will help temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s.

Medium range: (Sunday night through Saturday):

This period continues to look unsettled as the upper level pattern
resets itself and reverts back to a similar synoptic pattern as
last week. The main feature of interest will be an upper level
trough over the southwestern CONUS. Several shortwaves ejecting
out from the upper trough are progged to move through the area
through Tuesday. This will allow for scattered thunderstorm chances
everyday in the period. Temperatures will generally range in the
upper 70s to lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday night, an upper
level trough moving from the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains and become phased with the southwestern CONUS as in moves
into the central and southern Plains. This will force a cold front
through the area in Wednesday with a more organized round of
thunderstorms possible. The cold front will move through the area by
Thursday and high pressure will build in behind the departing system
drying out conditions. High pressure will remain in control through
Friday. Highs Thursday and Friday will be a very comfortable low to
mid 70s. Towards the end of next week the upper level pattern
becomes more amplified with ridging over the western CONUS and
troughing over the east. The local area will be under northwest flow
aloft keeping temperatures in the 70s with the potential for storms
again moving into the area by Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VFR conditions will dominate through the forecast period. Mostly
clear skies tonight will give way to fair weather CU centered around
5 kft after 16zy. Light SW winds tonight will increase to 5-10 kts
through the daylight hrs.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...32





000
FXUS63 KEAX 281715
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The upper level shortwave trough that has been meandering to our
west is expected to finally, albeit slowly, move to our north and
eventually east of the area. We`re finally seeing some mid to upper
level dry air, noticeable via water vapor imagery, work into the
area. This has helped to erode precipitation across the area. Short
range models have an area of strong isentropic ascent this morning
over the western portions of the forecast area. But it looks like the
dry air aloft may inhibit much precipitation development as RH plots
through this later of ascent are relatively dry. This seems to be
playing out with the lack of QPF the short range models produce this
morning. Despite this, there are still some showers and perhaps a
storm moving through central Kansas around the upper shortwave. So as
the wave moves northeast, some of this activity may survive into our
northwestern zones.

For Sunday, with the area on the back side of the now departing
upper shortwave trough, we`ll likely be in an area of subsidence
through much of the day with much of the moisture shunted to our
south. So Sunday actually looks dry for a good portion of the
forecast area. The exception may be eastern Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri where moisture will recover through the day and there
seems to be a chance for moving convection into the area late in the
day and perhaps into the overnight.

The first half of next work week looks potentially unsettled with
multiple periods of chance PoPs. But there really doesn`t appear to
be a focus for anything until Wednesday. Rather, it looks like humid
and unstable conditions will lead to daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. The best chance for more widespread showers and storms
though will come Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Behind
this front it looks like we`ll finally see a drier air mass work into
the area. For now, it looks like the later half of next week and into
the weekend look very nice with dry weather and pleasant temperatures
likely.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VFR cigs will prevail thru the pd with sct-bkn cigs btn 3-4kft this
afternoon. A isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible at STJ
and MCI this afternoon however chances are too low for inclusion in
the TAF at this time. Cigs will further lift to around 5kft and sct
out late this afternoon before giving way to mid- lvl clouds tonight.
Winds will be out of the WSW this afternoon at 10-15kts before dmshg
to 5-10kts this evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...73





000
FXUS63 KEAX 281114
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The upper level shortwave trough that has been meandering to our
west is expected to finally, albeit slowly, move to our north and
eventually east of the area. We`re finally seeing some mid to upper
level dry air, noticeable via water vapor imagery, work into the
area. This has helped to erode precipitation across the area. Short
range models have an area of strong isentropic ascent this morning
over the western portions of the forecast area. But it looks like the
dry air aloft may inhibit much precipitation development as RH plots
through this later of ascent are relatively dry. This seems to be
playing out with the lack of QPF the short range models produce this
morning. Despite this, there are still some showers and perhaps a
storm moving through central Kansas around the upper shortwave. So as
the wave moves northeast, some of this activity may survive into our
northwestern zones.

For Sunday, with the area on the back side of the now departing
upper shortwave trough, we`ll likely be in an area of subsidence
through much of the day with much of the moisture shunted to our
south. So Sunday actually looks dry for a good portion of the
forecast area. The exception may be eastern Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri where moisture will recover through the day and there
seems to be a chance for moving convection into the area late in the
day and perhaps into the overnight.

The first half of next work week looks potentially unsettled with
multiple periods of chance PoPs. But there really doesn`t appear to
be a focus for anything until Wednesday. Rather, it looks like humid
and unstable conditions will lead to daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. The best chance for more widespread showers and storms
though will come Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Behind
this front it looks like we`ll finally see a drier air mass work into
the area. For now, it looks like the later half of next week and into
the weekend look very nice with dry weather and pleasant temperatures
likely.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

After a few hours of MVFR ceilings this morning, VFR conditions are
expected through the rest of the forecast. Winds will generally be
from the southwest at 10 to 15 kts. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible again today, but coverage should be less
than yesterday so have kept mention out of the forecast for now.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB





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