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000
FXUS63 KEAX 221108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
608 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today - Tonight:

Temperatures today will likely be about 5 degrees warmer than
yesterday with similar humidity values. This is going to result in
oppressive heat across the area with heat indices approaching 110
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. No significant
changes were made to the temperature forecast and the heat advisory
will obviously remain as is.

The main challenge with the forecast is the potential for storms to
develop along a front that will be moving into the area from the
north. Instability will be extreme with MLCAPE values around 5000
J/kg. Shear will initially be very weak but may increase and become
more favorable overnight as a weak upper shortwave moves into the
area. The very warm temperatures aloft should inhibit convection
during the afternoon. But there may be enough lift along the front
the overcome this so have maintained a very slight chance of storms
in far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas as a
result. If a storm can develop during the heat of the afternoon,
there will be a good chance for damaging downburst winds. The
probability of storms increases during the late evening and
overnight hours. The weak shortwave, in conjunction with the frontal
forcing, may provide enough lift for more widespread storms to form.
There will remain ample instability into the overnight but it will
really depend on if and how quickly stronger shear can move into the
area. With the strong instability and weak shear, the likelihood of
storms primarily being wind producers is high as there will be in
imbalance in the CAPE/Shear combination. Very high freezing levels
approaching 16K feet and wetbulb zero heights of around 13.5K feet
suggest large hail is less likely due to very warm temperatures
aloft. Short-range models are in decent agreement developing storms
across northern Missouri and then tracking them southeast through the
overnight. Have increased PoPs to account for this higher
probability.

Wednesday - Friday:

Cooler weather is expected these days as Canadian high pressure
tracks into the Midwest giving us northeasterly winds. The upper
ridge will have shifted and built in the western states and this may
leave the area on the edge of the cap within northwest flow. A weak
mid-level impulse may then track through the flow and bring another
chance of precipitation to the area Thursday night into Friday.

Saturday - Monday:

Another front is expected to move through the area Saturday which
may lead to additional precipitation chances through the weekend.
But overall have kept chances low as there is a fair amount of
uncertainty in the timing of any upper-level support in the
northwest flow pattern. By the start of next week, models begin to
amplify the flow across the CONUS with the western ridge building
and an eastern trough deepening. At the surface, cooler high
pressure should settle right over the Missouri Valley and into the
Midwest leading to what looks like another period of cooler than
normal weather in the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the entire period. A cold front
will move through the area this evening which may bring storms to the
terminals. The better coverage of storms should to the east of the
terminals, across central Missouri.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220809
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today - Tonight:

Temperatures today will likely be about 5 degrees warmer than
yesterday with similar humidity values. This is going to result in
oppressive heat across the area with heat indices approaching 110
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. No significant
changes were made to the temperature forecast and the heat advisory
will obviously remain as is.

The main challenge with the forecast is the potential for storms to
develop along a front that will be moving into the area from the
north. Instability will be extreme with MLCAPE values around 5000
J/kg. Shear will initially be very weak but may increase and become
more favorable overnight as a weak upper shortwave moves into the
area. The very warm temperatures aloft should inhibit convection
during the afternoon. But there may be enough lift along the front
the overcome this so have maintained a very slight chance of storms
in far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas as a
result. If a storm can develop during the heat of the afternoon,
there will be a good chance for damaging downburst winds. The
probability of storms increases during the late evening and
overnight hours. The weak shortwave, in conjunction with the frontal
forcing, may provide enough lift for more widespread storms to form.
There will remain ample instability into the overnight but it will
really depend on if and how quickly stronger shear can move into the
area. With the strong instability and weak shear, the likelihood of
storms primarily being wind producers is high as there will be in
imbalance in the CAPE/Shear combination. Very high freezing levels
approaching 16K feet and wetbulb zero heights of around 13.5K feet
suggest large hail is less likely due to very warm temperatures
aloft. Short-range models are in decent agreement developing storms
across northern Missouri and then tracking them southeast through the
overnight. Have increased PoPs to account for this higher
probability.

Wednesday - Friday:

Cooler weather is expected these days as Canadian high pressure
tracks into the Midwest giving us northeasterly winds. The upper
ridge will have shifted and built in the western states and this may
leave the area on the edge of the cap within northwest flow. A weak
mid-level impulse may then track through the flow and bring another
chance of precipitation to the area Thursday night into Friday.

Saturday - Monday:

Another front is expected to move through the area Saturday which
may lead to additional precipitation chances through the weekend.
But overall have kept chances low as there is a fair amount of
uncertainty in the timing of any upper-level support in the
northwest flow pattern. By the start of next week, models begin to
amplify the flow across the CONUS with the western ridge building
and an eastern trough deepening. At the surface, cooler high
pressure should settle right over the Missouri Valley and into the
Midwest leading to what looks like another period of cooler than
normal weather in the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Generally quiet weather expected through late afternoon. A cold front
will sag toward the area Tuesday evening and may be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage
expected to be across north central Missouri eastward.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel









000
FXUS63 KEAX 220809
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today - Tonight:

Temperatures today will likely be about 5 degrees warmer than
yesterday with similar humidity values. This is going to result in
oppressive heat across the area with heat indices approaching 110
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. No significant
changes were made to the temperature forecast and the heat advisory
will obviously remain as is.

The main challenge with the forecast is the potential for storms to
develop along a front that will be moving into the area from the
north. Instability will be extreme with MLCAPE values around 5000
J/kg. Shear will initially be very weak but may increase and become
more favorable overnight as a weak upper shortwave moves into the
area. The very warm temperatures aloft should inhibit convection
during the afternoon. But there may be enough lift along the front
the overcome this so have maintained a very slight chance of storms
in far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas as a
result. If a storm can develop during the heat of the afternoon,
there will be a good chance for damaging downburst winds. The
probability of storms increases during the late evening and
overnight hours. The weak shortwave, in conjunction with the frontal
forcing, may provide enough lift for more widespread storms to form.
There will remain ample instability into the overnight but it will
really depend on if and how quickly stronger shear can move into the
area. With the strong instability and weak shear, the likelihood of
storms primarily being wind producers is high as there will be in
imbalance in the CAPE/Shear combination. Very high freezing levels
approaching 16K feet and wetbulb zero heights of around 13.5K feet
suggest large hail is less likely due to very warm temperatures
aloft. Short-range models are in decent agreement developing storms
across northern Missouri and then tracking them southeast through the
overnight. Have increased PoPs to account for this higher
probability.

Wednesday - Friday:

Cooler weather is expected these days as Canadian high pressure
tracks into the Midwest giving us northeasterly winds. The upper
ridge will have shifted and built in the western states and this may
leave the area on the edge of the cap within northwest flow. A weak
mid-level impulse may then track through the flow and bring another
chance of precipitation to the area Thursday night into Friday.

Saturday - Monday:

Another front is expected to move through the area Saturday which
may lead to additional precipitation chances through the weekend.
But overall have kept chances low as there is a fair amount of
uncertainty in the timing of any upper-level support in the
northwest flow pattern. By the start of next week, models begin to
amplify the flow across the CONUS with the western ridge building
and an eastern trough deepening. At the surface, cooler high
pressure should settle right over the Missouri Valley and into the
Midwest leading to what looks like another period of cooler than
normal weather in the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Generally quiet weather expected through late afternoon. A cold front
will sag toward the area Tuesday evening and may be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage
expected to be across north central Missouri eastward.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220358
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Generally quiet weather expected through late afternoon. A cold front
will sag toward the area Tuesday evening and may be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage
expected to be across north central Missouri eastward.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220358
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Generally quiet weather expected through late afternoon. A cold front
will sag toward the area Tuesday evening and may be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage
expected to be across north central Missouri eastward.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212343
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Quiet flying conditions next 24 hours. South winds will gradually
become southwesterly tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
348 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
348 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Temps off and running this morning with latest observations already
yielding mid/upper-70s across much of the area at 9 AM. Later
today...strong thermal advection in the 925-850 hPa layer should
result in lower to middle 90s along/west of the Route 65 corridor
with low 90s further to the east. This combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the upper
90s to lower 100s west of Route 65...with mid to upper 90s east.
Based on these expectations...decided to delay the heat advisory for
eastern portions of the fcst area until Tuesday when heat indices
values are expected to better approach heat advisory thresholds.
Further west...inherited heat advisory for today and tomorrow remains
unchanged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Temps off and running this morning with latest observations already
yielding mid/upper-70s across much of the area at 9 AM. Later
today...strong thermal advection in the 925-850 hPa layer should
result in lower to middle 90s along/west of the Route 65 corridor
with low 90s further to the east. This combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the upper
90s to lower 100s west of Route 65...with mid to upper 90s east.
Based on these expectations...decided to delay the heat advisory for
eastern portions of the fcst area until Tuesday when heat indices
values are expected to better approach heat advisory thresholds.
Further west...inherited heat advisory for today and tomorrow remains
unchanged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211438
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Temps off and running this morning with latest observations already
yielding mid/upper-70s across much of the area at 9 AM. Later
today...strong thermal advection in the 925-850 hPa layer should
result in lower to middle 90s along/west of the Route 65 corridor
with low 90s further to the east. This combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the upper
90s to lower 100s west of Route 65...with mid to upper 90s east.
Based on these expectations...decided to delay the heat advisory for
eastern portions of the fcst area until Tuesday when heat indices
values are expected to better approach heat advisory thresholds.
Further west...inherited heat advisory for today and tomorrow remains
unchanged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the period with a few-sct cirrus expected
over the next 24 hours. Winds are out of the south this morning
around 10kts but will pick up to near 15kts with gusts 20-25kts by
late this morning thru the afternoon. This evening winds will subside
to around 10kts while remaining out of the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211043
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the period with a few-sct cirrus expected
over the next 24 hours. Winds are out of the south this morning
around 10kts but will pick up to near 15kts with gusts 20-25kts by
late this morning thru the afternoon. This evening winds will subside
to around 10kts while remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211043
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the period with a few-sct cirrus expected
over the next 24 hours. Winds are out of the south this morning
around 10kts but will pick up to near 15kts with gusts 20-25kts by
late this morning thru the afternoon. This evening winds will subside
to around 10kts while remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210758
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210758
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210456
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210456
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will be occasionally gusty during the daylight hours on Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 201721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 201721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 201048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle as only a few to sct high
cirrus clouds are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out
of the south btn 5-10kts early this morning before picking up to
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts late this morning and afternoon. Winds
will then subside again this evening diminishing to 5-10kts while
remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 201048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle as only a few to sct high
cirrus clouds are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out
of the south btn 5-10kts early this morning before picking up to
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts late this morning and afternoon. Winds
will then subside again this evening diminishing to 5-10kts while
remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 200822
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
322 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period with only few to scattered
high level clouds. Winds will increase from the south this afternoon
and then diminish some overnight. Winds should be in the 12 to 15 kt
range with gusts around 20kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 200822
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
322 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period with only few to scattered
high level clouds. Winds will increase from the south this afternoon
and then diminish some overnight. Winds should be in the 12 to 15 kt
range with gusts around 20kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200510
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The return to summer heat is the main story for the next few days.
Sunday will continue the steady warming trend we`ve been experiencing
since Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90, right
around average for mid/late July.

By Monday and Tuesday a large upper ridge will become established
over the central US and will bring the hottest temperatures so far
this season to our region. Veering low-level winds and resulting
downslope flow will send a surge of warm air toward the Mid-MO Valley
both days with 850 hPa temps rising to between 23 and 27C. This will
translate to surface temperatures in the mid 90s across much of the
area on Monday, with parts of northeast KS and northwest MO
potentially warming into the upper 90s on Tuesday. Some models, most
notably the NAM, are even bringing temperatures into the lower 100s
across far northwest MO but this is likely over done as it has done
several times this summer. Humidity levels will also rise through
this time with dewpoints in the lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Didn`t
go as aggressive as most models with the dewpoints since there hasn`t
been much significant rainfall in this part of the country in the
past week and 70s dewpoints are currently confined all the way near
the Gulf Coast. Still, humidity levels should get high enough to send
parts of northwest MO and northeast KS to near heat advisory criteria
(heat index 105F) Monday and especially Tuesday.

Temporary heat relief will arrive with a cold front Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. This front could be accompanied by a complex of
thunderstorms though it will have to overcome some low-level
inhibition. Any storms that do develop this far south appear unlikely
to produce widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather.

Wednesday and Thursday will see slightly cooler conditions behind the
front. Highs on Thursday should be in the lower to middle 80s for
most areas. There could be a few thunderstorm chances during this
time with the potential for one or more upper-level impulses
swinging through in northwest flow. These are poorly resolved at
this time however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period with only few to scattered
high level clouds. Winds will increase from the south this afternoon
and then diminish some overnight. Winds should be in the 12 to 15 kt
range with gusts around 20kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...CDB









000
FXUS63 KEAX 200510
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The return to summer heat is the main story for the next few days.
Sunday will continue the steady warming trend we`ve been experiencing
since Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90, right
around average for mid/late July.

By Monday and Tuesday a large upper ridge will become established
over the central US and will bring the hottest temperatures so far
this season to our region. Veering low-level winds and resulting
downslope flow will send a surge of warm air toward the Mid-MO Valley
both days with 850 hPa temps rising to between 23 and 27C. This will
translate to surface temperatures in the mid 90s across much of the
area on Monday, with parts of northeast KS and northwest MO
potentially warming into the upper 90s on Tuesday. Some models, most
notably the NAM, are even bringing temperatures into the lower 100s
across far northwest MO but this is likely over done as it has done
several times this summer. Humidity levels will also rise through
this time with dewpoints in the lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Didn`t
go as aggressive as most models with the dewpoints since there hasn`t
been much significant rainfall in this part of the country in the
past week and 70s dewpoints are currently confined all the way near
the Gulf Coast. Still, humidity levels should get high enough to send
parts of northwest MO and northeast KS to near heat advisory criteria
(heat index 105F) Monday and especially Tuesday.

Temporary heat relief will arrive with a cold front Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. This front could be accompanied by a complex of
thunderstorms though it will have to overcome some low-level
inhibition. Any storms that do develop this far south appear unlikely
to produce widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather.

Wednesday and Thursday will see slightly cooler conditions behind the
front. Highs on Thursday should be in the lower to middle 80s for
most areas. There could be a few thunderstorm chances during this
time with the potential for one or more upper-level impulses
swinging through in northwest flow. These are poorly resolved at
this time however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period with only few to scattered
high level clouds. Winds will increase from the south this afternoon
and then diminish some overnight. Winds should be in the 12 to 15 kt
range with gusts around 20kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 192310
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The return to summer heat is the main story for the next few days.
Sunday will continue the steady warming trend we`ve been experiencing
since Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90, right
around average for mid/late July.

By Monday and Tuesday a large upper ridge will become established
over the central US and will bring the hottest temperatures so far
this season to our region. Veering low-level winds and resulting
downslope flow will send a surge of warm air toward the Mid-MO Valley
both days with 850 hPa temps rising to between 23 and 27C. This will
translate to surface temperatures in the mid 90s across much of the
area on Monday, with parts of northeast KS and northwest MO
potentially warming into the upper 90s on Tuesday. Some models, most
notably the NAM, are even bringing temperatures into the lower 100s
across far northwest MO but this is likely over done as it has done
several times this summer. Humidity levels will also rise through
this time with dewpoints in the lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Didn`t
go as aggressive as most models with the dewpoints since there hasn`t
been much significant rainfall in this part of the country in the
past week and 70s dewpoints are currently confined all the way near
the Gulf Coast. Still, humidity levels should get high enough to send
parts of northwest MO and northeast KS to near heat advisory criteria
(heat index 105F) Monday and especially Tuesday.

Temporary heat relief will arrive with a cold front Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. This front could be accompanied by a complex of
thunderstorms though it will have to overcome some low-level
inhibition. Any storms that do develop this far south appear unlikely
to produce widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather.

Wednesday and Thursday will see slightly cooler conditions behind the
front. Highs on Thursday should be in the lower to middle 80s for
most areas. There could be a few thunderstorm chances during this
time with the potential for one or more upper-level impulses
swinging through in northwest flow. These are poorly resolved at
this time however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period with southerly winds
continuing and mostly clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192310
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The return to summer heat is the main story for the next few days.
Sunday will continue the steady warming trend we`ve been experiencing
since Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90, right
around average for mid/late July.

By Monday and Tuesday a large upper ridge will become established
over the central US and will bring the hottest temperatures so far
this season to our region. Veering low-level winds and resulting
downslope flow will send a surge of warm air toward the Mid-MO Valley
both days with 850 hPa temps rising to between 23 and 27C. This will
translate to surface temperatures in the mid 90s across much of the
area on Monday, with parts of northeast KS and northwest MO
potentially warming into the upper 90s on Tuesday. Some models, most
notably the NAM, are even bringing temperatures into the lower 100s
across far northwest MO but this is likely over done as it has done
several times this summer. Humidity levels will also rise through
this time with dewpoints in the lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Didn`t
go as aggressive as most models with the dewpoints since there hasn`t
been much significant rainfall in this part of the country in the
past week and 70s dewpoints are currently confined all the way near
the Gulf Coast. Still, humidity levels should get high enough to send
parts of northwest MO and northeast KS to near heat advisory criteria
(heat index 105F) Monday and especially Tuesday.

Temporary heat relief will arrive with a cold front Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. This front could be accompanied by a complex of
thunderstorms though it will have to overcome some low-level
inhibition. Any storms that do develop this far south appear unlikely
to produce widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather.

Wednesday and Thursday will see slightly cooler conditions behind the
front. Highs on Thursday should be in the lower to middle 80s for
most areas. There could be a few thunderstorm chances during this
time with the potential for one or more upper-level impulses
swinging through in northwest flow. These are poorly resolved at
this time however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period with southerly winds
continuing and mostly clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 192019
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
319 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The return to summer heat is the main story for the next few days.
Sunday will continue the steady warming trend we`ve been experiencing
since Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90, right
around average for mid/late July.

By Monday and Tuesday a large upper ridge will become established
over the central US and will bring the hottest temperatures so far
this season to our region. Veering low-level winds and resulting
downslope flow will send a surge of warm air toward the Mid-MO Valley
both days with 850 hPa temps rising to between 23 and 27C. This will
translate to surface temperatures in the mid 90s across much of the
area on Monday, with parts of northeast KS and northwest MO
potentially warming into the upper 90s on Tuesday. Some models, most
notably the NAM, are even bringing temperatures into the lower 100s
across far northwest MO but this is likely over done as it has done
several times this summer. Humidity levels will also rise through
this time with dewpoints in the lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Didn`t
go as aggressive as most models with the dewpoints since there hasn`t
been much significant rainfall in this part of the country in the
past week and 70s dewpoints are currently confined all the way near
the Gulf Coast. Still, humidity levels should get high enough to send
parts of northwest MO and northeast KS to near heat advisory criteria
(heat index 105F) Monday and especially Tuesday.

Temporary heat relief will arrive with a cold front Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. This front could be accompanied by a complex of
thunderstorms though it will have to overcome some low-level
inhibition. Any storms that do develop this far south appear unlikely
to produce widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather.

Wednesday and Thursday will see slightly cooler conditions behind the
front. Highs on Thursday should be in the lower to middle 80s for
most areas. There could be a few thunderstorm chances during this
time with the potential for one or more upper-level impulses
swinging through in northwest flow. These are poorly resolved at
this time however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Scattered to broken cumulus deck is currently flirting with MVFR/VFR
heights but bases will rise 1 or 2 thousand feet through the
afternoon. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 192019
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
319 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The return to summer heat is the main story for the next few days.
Sunday will continue the steady warming trend we`ve been experiencing
since Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90, right
around average for mid/late July.

By Monday and Tuesday a large upper ridge will become established
over the central US and will bring the hottest temperatures so far
this season to our region. Veering low-level winds and resulting
downslope flow will send a surge of warm air toward the Mid-MO Valley
both days with 850 hPa temps rising to between 23 and 27C. This will
translate to surface temperatures in the mid 90s across much of the
area on Monday, with parts of northeast KS and northwest MO
potentially warming into the upper 90s on Tuesday. Some models, most
notably the NAM, are even bringing temperatures into the lower 100s
across far northwest MO but this is likely over done as it has done
several times this summer. Humidity levels will also rise through
this time with dewpoints in the lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Didn`t
go as aggressive as most models with the dewpoints since there hasn`t
been much significant rainfall in this part of the country in the
past week and 70s dewpoints are currently confined all the way near
the Gulf Coast. Still, humidity levels should get high enough to send
parts of northwest MO and northeast KS to near heat advisory criteria
(heat index 105F) Monday and especially Tuesday.

Temporary heat relief will arrive with a cold front Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. This front could be accompanied by a complex of
thunderstorms though it will have to overcome some low-level
inhibition. Any storms that do develop this far south appear unlikely
to produce widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather.

Wednesday and Thursday will see slightly cooler conditions behind the
front. Highs on Thursday should be in the lower to middle 80s for
most areas. There could be a few thunderstorm chances during this
time with the potential for one or more upper-level impulses
swinging through in northwest flow. These are poorly resolved at
this time however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Scattered to broken cumulus deck is currently flirting with MVFR/VFR
heights but bases will rise 1 or 2 thousand feet through the
afternoon. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191724
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Quiet weather is expected to continue Saturday as high pressure is
still the main influence on the area. However, upper ridging will
begin to build eastward Sunday which allow temperatures to crank up
across the area. The surface high should have shifted far enough
east that lee troughing will then primarily influence our surface
and low-level weather resulting in south to southwest winds which
will advect much warmer air aloft over the area. 850mb temperatures
in the low to mid 20C range support highs around 90 degrees. The
humidity will likely hold off for another day though until better
moisture makes it northward with the persistent southerly surface
flow. This will set the stage for Monday and Tuesday likely being
some of the hottest days we`ve had so far this summer, both with
temperatures and heat indices.

Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the two. 850mb temperatures
in the mid to upper 20C range will support highs in the upper 90s.
Dewpoints look to be in the mid 70s and the resultant heat indices
should be in the 100 to 105 degree range. There are some
uncertainties however. The GFS and the ECMWF are in good agreement
with the upper ridge axis nosing right across the forecast area. This
tends to suppress any convection that may form along the surface/low-
level trough axis as it shifts eastward into the area. The GEM
however, has the ridge axis further south and as a result advances
the trough quicker and breaks out convection. The forecast
initialization had much higher PoPs but feel that the GFS and the
ECMWF are handling the ridge and suppression better. So have lower
PoPs to around 25% along the surface trough axis.

A weak cold front will slide into the area behind the surface trough with
high pressure settling over the western Great Lakes Wednesday into
Thursday. This should cool things off, especially for northeastern
Missouri. That cool down should be short-lived as by the end of the
week the heat should return.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Scattered to broken cumulus deck is currently flirting with MVFR/VFR
heights but bases will rise 1 or 2 thousand feet through the
afternoon. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 191724
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Quiet weather is expected to continue Saturday as high pressure is
still the main influence on the area. However, upper ridging will
begin to build eastward Sunday which allow temperatures to crank up
across the area. The surface high should have shifted far enough
east that lee troughing will then primarily influence our surface
and low-level weather resulting in south to southwest winds which
will advect much warmer air aloft over the area. 850mb temperatures
in the low to mid 20C range support highs around 90 degrees. The
humidity will likely hold off for another day though until better
moisture makes it northward with the persistent southerly surface
flow. This will set the stage for Monday and Tuesday likely being
some of the hottest days we`ve had so far this summer, both with
temperatures and heat indices.

Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the two. 850mb temperatures
in the mid to upper 20C range will support highs in the upper 90s.
Dewpoints look to be in the mid 70s and the resultant heat indices
should be in the 100 to 105 degree range. There are some
uncertainties however. The GFS and the ECMWF are in good agreement
with the upper ridge axis nosing right across the forecast area. This
tends to suppress any convection that may form along the surface/low-
level trough axis as it shifts eastward into the area. The GEM
however, has the ridge axis further south and as a result advances
the trough quicker and breaks out convection. The forecast
initialization had much higher PoPs but feel that the GFS and the
ECMWF are handling the ridge and suppression better. So have lower
PoPs to around 25% along the surface trough axis.

A weak cold front will slide into the area behind the surface trough with
high pressure settling over the western Great Lakes Wednesday into
Thursday. This should cool things off, especially for northeastern
Missouri. That cool down should be short-lived as by the end of the
week the heat should return.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Scattered to broken cumulus deck is currently flirting with MVFR/VFR
heights but bases will rise 1 or 2 thousand feet through the
afternoon. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel









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