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000
FXUS63 KEAX 261652
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR conditions rapidly improving early this afternoon as drier air
moves into the area. Expect cigs to scatter out this afternoon with
VFR conditions expected through much of the fcst period. Winds from
the northeast between 10-15 kts will gradually weaken to 4-8 kts this
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261652
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR conditions rapidly improving early this afternoon as drier air
moves into the area. Expect cigs to scatter out this afternoon with
VFR conditions expected through much of the fcst period. Winds from
the northeast between 10-15 kts will gradually weaken to 4-8 kts this
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260843
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A mix of LIFR, IFR, and low-end MVFR conditions exist across the
area, and this should continue through mid-morning at terminals.
Areas of drizzle will continue for a few more hours before
diminishing. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with skies becoming
mostly clear towards the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260843
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A mix of LIFR, IFR, and low-end MVFR conditions exist across the
area, and this should continue through mid-morning at terminals.
Areas of drizzle will continue for a few more hours before
diminishing. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with skies becoming
mostly clear towards the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260843
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A mix of LIFR, IFR, and low-end MVFR conditions exist across the
area, and this should continue through mid-morning at terminals.
Areas of drizzle will continue for a few more hours before
diminishing. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with skies becoming
mostly clear towards the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260509
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A mix of LIFR, IFR, and low-end MVFR conditions exist across the
area, and this should continue through mid-morning at terminals.
Areas of drizzle will continue for a few more hours before
diminishing. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with skies becoming
mostly clear towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR to low-end MVFR conditions expected to continue through
mid-morning at terminals. Areas of drizzle should gradually diminish
over the next few hours. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with
skies becoming mostly clear shortly after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR to low-end MVFR conditions expected to continue through
mid-morning at terminals. Areas of drizzle should gradually diminish
over the next few hours. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with
skies becoming mostly clear shortly after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR to low-end MVFR conditions expected to continue through
mid-morning at terminals. Areas of drizzle should gradually diminish
over the next few hours. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with
skies becoming mostly clear shortly after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR to low-end MVFR conditions expected to continue through
mid-morning at terminals. Areas of drizzle should gradually diminish
over the next few hours. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with
skies becoming mostly clear shortly after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 244 CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected through much of the forecast
period. MVFR ceilings this afternoon will very likely drop to IFR
tonight as cold advection settles in. Guidance suggest skies will
become VFR late in the valid period so have trended to IFR overnight
and then back to VFR late Sunday morning. Winds will veer to the
north and eventually to the northeast tonight. Winds may be
sustained around 12 kts this afternoon and this evening but should
diminish overnight and tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 244 CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected through much of the forecast
period. MVFR ceilings this afternoon will very likely drop to IFR
tonight as cold advection settles in. Guidance suggest skies will
become VFR late in the valid period so have trended to IFR overnight
and then back to VFR late Sunday morning. Winds will veer to the
north and eventually to the northeast tonight. Winds may be
sustained around 12 kts this afternoon and this evening but should
diminish overnight and tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB









000
FXUS63 KEAX 252000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 244 CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected through much of the forecast
period. MVFR ceilings this afternoon will very likely drop to IFR
tonight as cold advection settles in. Guidance suggest skies will
become VFR late in the valid period so have trended to IFR overnight
and then back to VFR late Sunday morning. Winds will veer to the
north and eventually to the northeast tonight. Winds may be
sustained around 12 kts this afternoon and this evening but should
diminish overnight and tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB









000
FXUS63 KEAX 251613
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251613
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251613
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251613
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250900
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings exist across the area, and anticipate
MVFR to gradually become dominant height with time and persist well
into forecast period. Weakening line of showers and t-storms are
approaching TAF sites, and only anticipate isolated/temporary periods
of thunder near terminals. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected
through sunrise, with gradually decreasing chances during the day
Saturday. Wind directions will steadily change as the low moves
across the area through Saturday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250900
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings exist across the area, and anticipate
MVFR to gradually become dominant height with time and persist well
into forecast period. Weakening line of showers and t-storms are
approaching TAF sites, and only anticipate isolated/temporary periods
of thunder near terminals. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected
through sunrise, with gradually decreasing chances during the day
Saturday. Wind directions will steadily change as the low moves
across the area through Saturday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250447
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings exist across the area, and anticipate
MVFR to gradually become dominant height with time and persist well
into forecast period. Weakening line of showers and t-storms are
approaching TAF sites, and only anticipate isolated/temporary periods
of thunder near terminals. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected
through sunrise, with gradually decreasing chances during the day
Saturday. Wind directions will steadily change as the low moves
across the area through Saturday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250447
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings exist across the area, and anticipate
MVFR to gradually become dominant height with time and persist well
into forecast period. Weakening line of showers and t-storms are
approaching TAF sites, and only anticipate isolated/temporary periods
of thunder near terminals. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected
through sunrise, with gradually decreasing chances during the day
Saturday. Wind directions will steadily change as the low moves
across the area through Saturday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

No large changes to the TAFs. Initial concern will be potential for
convection to develop after sunset ahead of the ongoing KS activity.
Several rounds of precipitation will be possible overnight into the
morning hours. MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

No large changes to the TAFs. Initial concern will be potential for
convection to develop after sunset ahead of the ongoing KS activity.
Several rounds of precipitation will be possible overnight into the
morning hours. MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241727
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241727
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241727
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241603
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will move through the
terminals through the mid morning hours, and should clear the area by
or shortly after 15z. MVFR CIGs remain in place through the day, then
another round of more widespread thunderstorms move in later tonight.
KSTJ should see T-storms first, followed by the KC Metro terminals.
Expect the heaviest rain to pass through fairly quickly, but
lingering light rain with embedded thunder could persist through most
of the night on Friday night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241603
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will move through the
terminals through the mid morning hours, and should clear the area by
or shortly after 15z. MVFR CIGs remain in place through the day, then
another round of more widespread thunderstorms move in later tonight.
KSTJ should see T-storms first, followed by the KC Metro terminals.
Expect the heaviest rain to pass through fairly quickly, but
lingering light rain with embedded thunder could persist through most
of the night on Friday night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
617 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will move through the
terminals through the mid morning hours, and should clear the area by
or shortly after 15z. MVFR CIGs remain in place through the day, then
another round of more widespread thunderstorms move in later tonight.
KSTJ should see T-storms first, followed by the KC Metro terminals.
Expect the heaviest rain to pass through fairly quickly, but
lingering light rain with embedded thunder could persist through most
of the night on Friday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
617 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will move through the
terminals through the mid morning hours, and should clear the area by
or shortly after 15z. MVFR CIGs remain in place through the day, then
another round of more widespread thunderstorms move in later tonight.
KSTJ should see T-storms first, followed by the KC Metro terminals.
Expect the heaviest rain to pass through fairly quickly, but
lingering light rain with embedded thunder could persist through most
of the night on Friday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240855
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions still prevail at the terminals at this late hour, but
they will likely give way to MVFR conditions by sunrise. Expected
scattered showers and thunderstorms to bubble up early this morning.
Looking up stream, thoughts are that early morning activity will be in
the MVFR range. Scattered storms may be able to percolate across the
region throughout the day Friday, though a secondary round of strong
thunderstorms will be possible late in the day and into the evening
hours with the potential for thunderstorms to persist well into
Saturday morning. Currently, thoughts are that most of the activity
should be in the MVFR range. Otherwise, winds will pick up and become
rather gusty through much of the day and into the evening hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240855
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions still prevail at the terminals at this late hour, but
they will likely give way to MVFR conditions by sunrise. Expected
scattered showers and thunderstorms to bubble up early this morning.
Looking up stream, thoughts are that early morning activity will be in
the MVFR range. Scattered storms may be able to percolate across the
region throughout the day Friday, though a secondary round of strong
thunderstorms will be possible late in the day and into the evening
hours with the potential for thunderstorms to persist well into
Saturday morning. Currently, thoughts are that most of the activity
should be in the MVFR range. Otherwise, winds will pick up and become
rather gusty through much of the day and into the evening hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 240359
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The potential for severe storms Friday afternoon and overnight
remains the focus of the forecast. Tonight, warm, moist ascent ahead
of the upper shortwave trough will lead to scattered to perhaps
widespread showers and storms. These storms are not expected to
become severe but will have an important role in how the rest of the
afternoon and evening unfold. Models vary greatly with how this
early activity goes and is dependent upon how far the warm front may
lift. The NAM lifts the warm front into the southwestern portions of
the forecast area, developing a rather robust but localized warm
sector with parameters extremely favorable for severe storms. The
GFS lifts the warm front through much of the area but seems a bit
further west with its ideal combination of instability and shear.
The ECMWF is similar but a bit further west than the GFS. Given the
variability with the warm front placement, the risk for our forecast
area remains conditional. But with most guidance lifting the front
into at least the southern half of the forecast area, the potential
for severe storms, including supercells with large hail, damaging
winds and few tornadoes across the southwestern portions of the
forecast is a very real possibility. Additionally, the boundary
layer looks to be well mixed well into the evening hours and all this
activity will likely grow upscale into a convective system. If the
orientation of this can remain mainly north-south, nearly
perpendicular low-level shear suggest a potential for tornadoes well
into the overnight along with damaging winds.

The other aspect of this storm system will be the potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall mainly north of the Missouri
river. Models are fairly consistent in bringing unseasonably high
precipitable water values, likely in the 90th to average max value
for this time of year. With the strong upper wave providing ample
forcing, there will likely be widespread 1+ inches rain amounts. Some
locations will see more, perhaps several inches more, depending on
where and the nature of the convection. Northern Missouri has been
somewhat dry so far this year, with some recent rains providing some
relief. But overall, flash flood guidance values suggest it can rain
quite a bit before flooding becomes a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Overall...operational models in reasonable agreement that a large
scale upper ridge will build across the western CONUS...while a
downstream upper low slowly meanders across the southern Plains/lwr
Miss Vly early next week. From this vantage point...model progs
indicate much of our region will remain in between the northern and
southern jetstream members...suggesting a fairly dry period through
midweek. Temps through the period should be seasonable with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s while lows fall into the
middle to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions still prevail at the terminals at this late hour, but
they will likely give way to MVFR conditions by sunrise. Expected
scattered showers and thunderstorms to bubble up early this morning.
Looking up stream, thoughts are that early morning activity will be in
the MVFR range. Scattered storms may be able to percolate across the
region throughout the day Friday, though a secondary round of strong
thunderstorms will be possible late in the day and into the evening
hours with the potential for thunderstorms to persist well into
Saturday morning. Currently, thoughts are that most of the activity
should be in the MVFR range. Otherwise, winds will pick up and become
rather gusty through much of the day and into the evening hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240359
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The potential for severe storms Friday afternoon and overnight
remains the focus of the forecast. Tonight, warm, moist ascent ahead
of the upper shortwave trough will lead to scattered to perhaps
widespread showers and storms. These storms are not expected to
become severe but will have an important role in how the rest of the
afternoon and evening unfold. Models vary greatly with how this
early activity goes and is dependent upon how far the warm front may
lift. The NAM lifts the warm front into the southwestern portions of
the forecast area, developing a rather robust but localized warm
sector with parameters extremely favorable for severe storms. The
GFS lifts the warm front through much of the area but seems a bit
further west with its ideal combination of instability and shear.
The ECMWF is similar but a bit further west than the GFS. Given the
variability with the warm front placement, the risk for our forecast
area remains conditional. But with most guidance lifting the front
into at least the southern half of the forecast area, the potential
for severe storms, including supercells with large hail, damaging
winds and few tornadoes across the southwestern portions of the
forecast is a very real possibility. Additionally, the boundary
layer looks to be well mixed well into the evening hours and all this
activity will likely grow upscale into a convective system. If the
orientation of this can remain mainly north-south, nearly
perpendicular low-level shear suggest a potential for tornadoes well
into the overnight along with damaging winds.

The other aspect of this storm system will be the potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall mainly north of the Missouri
river. Models are fairly consistent in bringing unseasonably high
precipitable water values, likely in the 90th to average max value
for this time of year. With the strong upper wave providing ample
forcing, there will likely be widespread 1+ inches rain amounts. Some
locations will see more, perhaps several inches more, depending on
where and the nature of the convection. Northern Missouri has been
somewhat dry so far this year, with some recent rains providing some
relief. But overall, flash flood guidance values suggest it can rain
quite a bit before flooding becomes a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Overall...operational models in reasonable agreement that a large
scale upper ridge will build across the western CONUS...while a
downstream upper low slowly meanders across the southern Plains/lwr
Miss Vly early next week. From this vantage point...model progs
indicate much of our region will remain in between the northern and
southern jetstream members...suggesting a fairly dry period through
midweek. Temps through the period should be seasonable with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s while lows fall into the
middle to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions still prevail at the terminals at this late hour, but
they will likely give way to MVFR conditions by sunrise. Expected
scattered showers and thunderstorms to bubble up early this morning.
Looking up stream, thoughts are that early morning activity will be in
the MVFR range. Scattered storms may be able to percolate across the
region throughout the day Friday, though a secondary round of strong
thunderstorms will be possible late in the day and into the evening
hours with the potential for thunderstorms to persist well into
Saturday morning. Currently, thoughts are that most of the activity
should be in the MVFR range. Otherwise, winds will pick up and become
rather gusty through much of the day and into the evening hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 232331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The potential for severe storms Friday afternoon and overnight
remains the focus of the forecast. Tonight, warm, moist ascent ahead
of the upper shortwave trough will lead to scattered to perhaps
widespread showers and storms. These storms are not expected to
become severe but will have an important role in how the rest of the
afternoon and evening unfold. Models vary greatly with how this
early activity goes and is dependent upon how far the warm front may
lift. The NAM lifts the warm front into the southwestern portions of
the forecast area, developing a rather robust but localized warm
sector with parameters extremely favorable for severe storms. The
GFS lifts the warm front through much of the area but seems a bit
further west with its ideal combination of instability and shear.
The ECMWF is similar but a bit further west than the GFS. Given the
variability with the warm front placement, the risk for our forecast
area remains conditional. But with most guidance lifting the front
into at least the southern half of the forecast area, the potential
for severe storms, including supercells with large hail, damaging
winds and few tornadoes across the southwestern portions of the
forecast is a very real possibility. Additionally, the boundary
layer looks to be well mixed well into the evening hours and all this
activity will likely grow upscale into a convective system. If the
orientation of this can remain mainly north-south, nearly
perpendicular low-level shear suggest a potential for tornadoes well
into the overnight along with damaging winds.

The other aspect of this storm system will be the potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall mainly north of the Missouri
river. Models are fairly consistent in bringing unseasonably high
precipitable water values, likely in the 90th to average max value
for this time of year. With the strong upper wave providing ample
forcing, there will likely be widespread 1+ inches rain amounts. Some
locations will see more, perhaps several inches more, depending on
where and the nature of the convection. Northern Missouri has been
somewhat dry so far this year, with some recent rains providing some
relief. But overall, flash flood guidance values suggest it can rain
quite a bit before flooding becomes a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Overall...operational models in reasonable agreement that a large
scale upper ridge will build across the western CONUS...while a
downstream upper low slowly meanders across the southern Plains/lwr
Miss Vly early next week. From this vantage point...model progs
indicate much of our region will remain in between the northern and
southern jetstream members...suggesting a fairly dry period through
midweek. Temps through the period should be seasonable with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s while lows fall into the
middle to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions will begin this TAF cycle, but storms early Friday
morning and through the day will likely leave the terminals in the
MVFR range for much of Friday. Expect showers to move into the
vicinity of the Kansas-Missouri border around sunrise Friday with
embedded thunderstorms. Should be a bit of a break in in storms that
morning into the afternoon hours before a second round of storms
develops across eastern Kansas during the mid to late afternoon
hours. Additionally, surface winds will veer to the south in the
morning, becoming rather gusty through much of the day ahead of a
cold front that will sweep through early Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 232331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The potential for severe storms Friday afternoon and overnight
remains the focus of the forecast. Tonight, warm, moist ascent ahead
of the upper shortwave trough will lead to scattered to perhaps
widespread showers and storms. These storms are not expected to
become severe but will have an important role in how the rest of the
afternoon and evening unfold. Models vary greatly with how this
early activity goes and is dependent upon how far the warm front may
lift. The NAM lifts the warm front into the southwestern portions of
the forecast area, developing a rather robust but localized warm
sector with parameters extremely favorable for severe storms. The
GFS lifts the warm front through much of the area but seems a bit
further west with its ideal combination of instability and shear.
The ECMWF is similar but a bit further west than the GFS. Given the
variability with the warm front placement, the risk for our forecast
area remains conditional. But with most guidance lifting the front
into at least the southern half of the forecast area, the potential
for severe storms, including supercells with large hail, damaging
winds and few tornadoes across the southwestern portions of the
forecast is a very real possibility. Additionally, the boundary
layer looks to be well mixed well into the evening hours and all this
activity will likely grow upscale into a convective system. If the
orientation of this can remain mainly north-south, nearly
perpendicular low-level shear suggest a potential for tornadoes well
into the overnight along with damaging winds.

The other aspect of this storm system will be the potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall mainly north of the Missouri
river. Models are fairly consistent in bringing unseasonably high
precipitable water values, likely in the 90th to average max value
for this time of year. With the strong upper wave providing ample
forcing, there will likely be widespread 1+ inches rain amounts. Some
locations will see more, perhaps several inches more, depending on
where and the nature of the convection. Northern Missouri has been
somewhat dry so far this year, with some recent rains providing some
relief. But overall, flash flood guidance values suggest it can rain
quite a bit before flooding becomes a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Overall...operational models in reasonable agreement that a large
scale upper ridge will build across the western CONUS...while a
downstream upper low slowly meanders across the southern Plains/lwr
Miss Vly early next week. From this vantage point...model progs
indicate much of our region will remain in between the northern and
southern jetstream members...suggesting a fairly dry period through
midweek. Temps through the period should be seasonable with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s while lows fall into the
middle to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions will begin this TAF cycle, but storms early Friday
morning and through the day will likely leave the terminals in the
MVFR range for much of Friday. Expect showers to move into the
vicinity of the Kansas-Missouri border around sunrise Friday with
embedded thunderstorms. Should be a bit of a break in in storms that
morning into the afternoon hours before a second round of storms
develops across eastern Kansas during the mid to late afternoon
hours. Additionally, surface winds will veer to the south in the
morning, becoming rather gusty through much of the day ahead of a
cold front that will sweep through early Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The potential for severe storms Friday afternoon and overnight
remains the focus of the forecast. Tonight, warm, moist ascent ahead
of the upper shortwave trough will lead to scattered to perhaps
widespread showers and storms. These storms are not expected to
become severe but will have an important role in how the rest of the
afternoon and evening unfold. Models vary greatly with how this
early activity goes and is dependent upon how far the warm front may
lift. The NAM lifts the warm front into the southwestern portions of
the forecast area, developing a rather robust but localized warm
sector with parameters extremely favorable for severe storms. The
GFS lifts the warm front through much of the area but seems a bit
further west with its ideal combination of instability and shear.
The ECMWF is similar but a bit further west than the GFS. Given the
variability with the warm front placement, the risk for our forecast
area remains conditional. But with most guidance lifting the front
into at least the southern half of the forecast area, the potential
for severe storms, including supercells with large hail, damaging
winds and few tornadoes across the southwestern portions of the
forecast is a very real possibility. Additionally, the boundary
layer looks to be well mixed well into the evening hours and all this
activity will likely grow upscale into a convective system. If the
orientation of this can remain mainly north-south, nearly
perpendicular low-level shear suggest a potential for tornadoes well
into the overnight along with damaging winds.

The other aspect of this storm system will be the potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall mainly north of the Missouri
river. Models are fairly consistent in bringing unseasonably high
precipitable water values, likely in the 90th to average max value
for this time of year. With the strong upper wave providing ample
forcing, there will likely be widespread 1+ inches rain amounts. Some
locations will see more, perhaps several inches more, depending on
where and the nature of the convection. Northern Missouri has been
somewhat dry so far this year, with some recent rains providing some
relief. But overall, flash flood guidance values suggest it can rain
quite a bit before flooding becomes a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Overall...operational models in reasonable agreement that a large
scale upper ridge will build across the western CONUS...while a
downstream upper low slowly meanders across the southern Plains/lwr
Miss Vly early next week. From this vantage point...model progs
indicate much of our region will remain in between the northern and
southern jetstream members...suggesting a fairly dry period through
midweek. Temps through the period should be seasonable with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s while lows fall into the
middle to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions will begin this TAF cycle, but storms early Friday
morning and through the day will likely leave the terminals in the
MVFR range for much of Friday. Expect showers to move into the
vicinity of the Kansas-Missouri border around sunrise Friday with
embedded thunderstorms. Should be a bit of a break in in storms that
morning into the afternoon hours before a second round of storms
develops across eastern Kansas during the mid to late afternoon
hours. Additionally, surface winds will veer to the south in the
morning, becoming rather gusty through much of the day ahead of a
cold front that will sweep through early Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The potential for severe storms Friday afternoon and overnight
remains the focus of the forecast. Tonight, warm, moist ascent ahead
of the upper shortwave trough will lead to scattered to perhaps
widespread showers and storms. These storms are not expected to
become severe but will have an important role in how the rest of the
afternoon and evening unfold. Models vary greatly with how this
early activity goes and is dependent upon how far the warm front may
lift. The NAM lifts the warm front into the southwestern portions of
the forecast area, developing a rather robust but localized warm
sector with parameters extremely favorable for severe storms. The
GFS lifts the warm front through much of the area but seems a bit
further west with its ideal combination of instability and shear.
The ECMWF is similar but a bit further west than the GFS. Given the
variability with the warm front placement, the risk for our forecast
area remains conditional. But with most guidance lifting the front
into at least the southern half of the forecast area, the potential
for severe storms, including supercells with large hail, damaging
winds and few tornadoes across the southwestern portions of the
forecast is a very real possibility. Additionally, the boundary
layer looks to be well mixed well into the evening hours and all this
activity will likely grow upscale into a convective system. If the
orientation of this can remain mainly north-south, nearly
perpendicular low-level shear suggest a potential for tornadoes well
into the overnight along with damaging winds.

The other aspect of this storm system will be the potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall mainly north of the Missouri
river. Models are fairly consistent in bringing unseasonably high
precipitable water values, likely in the 90th to average max value
for this time of year. With the strong upper wave providing ample
forcing, there will likely be widespread 1+ inches rain amounts. Some
locations will see more, perhaps several inches more, depending on
where and the nature of the convection. Northern Missouri has been
somewhat dry so far this year, with some recent rains providing some
relief. But overall, flash flood guidance values suggest it can rain
quite a bit before flooding becomes a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Overall...operational models in reasonable agreement that a large
scale upper ridge will build across the western CONUS...while a
downstream upper low slowly meanders across the southern Plains/lwr
Miss Vly early next week. From this vantage point...model progs
indicate much of our region will remain in between the northern and
southern jetstream members...suggesting a fairly dry period through
midweek. Temps through the period should be seasonable with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s while lows fall into the
middle to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions will begin this TAF cycle, but storms early Friday
morning and through the day will likely leave the terminals in the
MVFR range for much of Friday. Expect showers to move into the
vicinity of the Kansas-Missouri border around sunrise Friday with
embedded thunderstorms. Should be a bit of a break in in storms that
morning into the afternoon hours before a second round of storms
develops across eastern Kansas during the mid to late afternoon
hours. Additionally, surface winds will veer to the south in the
morning, becoming rather gusty through much of the day ahead of a
cold front that will sweep through early Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 232003
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The potential for severe storms Friday afternoon and overnight
remains the focus of the forecast. Tonight, warm, moist ascent ahead
of the upper shortwave trough will lead to scattered to perhaps
widespread showers and storms. These storms are not expected to
become severe but will have an important role in how the rest of the
afternoon and evening unfold. Models vary greatly with how this
early activity goes and is dependent upon how far the warm front may
lift. The NAM lifts the warm front into the southwestern portions of
the forecast area, developing a rather robust but localized warm
sector with parameters extremely favorable for severe storms. The
GFS lifts the warm front through much of the area but seems a bit
further west with its ideal combination of instability and shear.
The ECMWF is similar but a bit further west than the GFS. Given the
variability with the warm front placement, the risk for our forecast
area remains conditional. But with most guidance lifting the front
into at least the southern half of the forecast area, the potential
for severe storms, including supercells with large hail, damaging
winds and few tornadoes across the southwestern portions of the
forecast is a very real possibility. Additionally, the boundary
layer looks to be well mixed well into the evening hours and all this
activity will likely grow upscale into a convective system. If the
orientation of this can remain mainly north-south, nearly
perpendicular low-level shear suggest a potential for tornadoes well
into the overnight along with damaging winds.

The other aspect of this storm system will be the potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall mainly north of the Missouri
river. Models are fairly consistent in bringing unseasonably high
precipitable water values, likely in the 90th to average max value
for this time of year. With the strong upper wave providing ample
forcing, there will likely be widespread 1+ inches rain amounts. Some
locations will see more, perhaps several inches more, depending on
where and the nature of the convection. Northern Missouri has been
somewhat dry so far this year, with some recent rains providing some
relief. But overall, flash flood guidance values suggest it can rain
quite a bit before flooding becomes a concern.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Overall...operational models in reasonable agreement that a large
scale upper ridge will build across the western CONUS...while a
downstream upper low slowly meanders across the southern Plains/lwr
Miss Vly early next week. From this vantage point...model progs
indicate much of our region will remain inbetween the northern and
southern jetstream members...suggesting a fairly dry period through
midweek. Temps through the period should be seasonable with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s while lows fall into the
middle to upper 40s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions expected through the afternoon and likely through the
overnight. Main concern is timing any potential shower/convection
late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Activity looks to be fairly
scattered from a few hours before sunrise through late morning so
feel just carrying a VCTS group is warranted still.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 232003
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The potential for severe storms Friday afternoon and overnight
remains the focus of the forecast. Tonight, warm, moist ascent ahead
of the upper shortwave trough will lead to scattered to perhaps
widespread showers and storms. These storms are not expected to
become severe but will have an important role in how the rest of the
afternoon and evening unfold. Models vary greatly with how this
early activity goes and is dependent upon how far the warm front may
lift. The NAM lifts the warm front into the southwestern portions of
the forecast area, developing a rather robust but localized warm
sector with parameters extremely favorable for severe storms. The
GFS lifts the warm front through much of the area but seems a bit
further west with its ideal combination of instability and shear.
The ECMWF is similar but a bit further west than the GFS. Given the
variability with the warm front placement, the risk for our forecast
area remains conditional. But with most guidance lifting the front
into at least the southern half of the forecast area, the potential
for severe storms, including supercells with large hail, damaging
winds and few tornadoes across the southwestern portions of the
forecast is a very real possibility. Additionally, the boundary
layer looks to be well mixed well into the evening hours and all this
activity will likely grow upscale into a convective system. If the
orientation of this can remain mainly north-south, nearly
perpendicular low-level shear suggest a potential for tornadoes well
into the overnight along with damaging winds.

The other aspect of this storm system will be the potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall mainly north of the Missouri
river. Models are fairly consistent in bringing unseasonably high
precipitable water values, likely in the 90th to average max value
for this time of year. With the strong upper wave providing ample
forcing, there will likely be widespread 1+ inches rain amounts. Some
locations will see more, perhaps several inches more, depending on
where and the nature of the convection. Northern Missouri has been
somewhat dry so far this year, with some recent rains providing some
relief. But overall, flash flood guidance values suggest it can rain
quite a bit before flooding becomes a concern.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Overall...operational models in reasonable agreement that a large
scale upper ridge will build across the western CONUS...while a
downstream upper low slowly meanders across the southern Plains/lwr
Miss Vly early next week. From this vantage point...model progs
indicate much of our region will remain inbetween the northern and
southern jetstream members...suggesting a fairly dry period through
midweek. Temps through the period should be seasonable with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s while lows fall into the
middle to upper 40s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions expected through the afternoon and likely through the
overnight. Main concern is timing any potential shower/convection
late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Activity looks to be fairly
scattered from a few hours before sunrise through late morning so
feel just carrying a VCTS group is warranted still.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...CDB







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