Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KEAX 222338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions to prevail through the remainder of the evening hours
before line of showers/lowering ceilings move in around midnight.
Precip is anticipated to remain on the lighter side, leaving visbys
and ceilings currently projected to not drop below MVFR at all four
TAF sites. Low-level cloud deck and precip will exit by the morning
hours with decent clearing by the afternoon on Thursday. Southerly
winds will dominate, making a shift behind this line of precip from
the SW tomorrow. Winds could be gusty at times, especially with the
precip.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 222053
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missoui and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Mitchell








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current conditions are just barley staying in the VFR range early
this morning as low clouds have developed across the Missouri-Kansas
state-line early this morning. Some showers are possible with this
mornings cloud cover, but nothing that should impact the flight
category. Widespread stormy activity is expected to spread across the
region from west to east late tonight ahead of and along a weak front
that will sweep through. Have the onset of rain starting after 04Z
at KSTJ, spreading south into the Kansas City terminals around 05Z to
06Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220857
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
357 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Although chances for some very light rain at the terminals is
starting to shape up have kept VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period. Hi-res models indicate very spotty showery activity
near the aviation terminals, but forecast soundings indicate a rather
deep saturated later, which should indicate a good possibility for
some light rain. Not confident in the least that any rain will cause
visibility restrictions as it should remain very light. Cloud deck
should be around 3-4 kft, so will flirt with MVFR CIGs. Expect rain
chances to quickly end by noon, with the cloud deck perhaps becoming
more scattered through the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220511
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Although chances for some very light rain at the terminals is
starting to shape up have kept VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period. Hi-res models indicate very spotty showery activity
near the aviation terminals, but forecast soundings indicate a rather
deep saturated later, which should indicate a good possibility for
some light rain. Not confident in the least that any rain will cause
visibility restrictions as it sould remain very light. Cloud deck
should be around 3-4 kft, so will flirt with MVFR CIGs. Expect rain
chances to quickly end by noon, with the cloud deck perhaps becoming
more scattered through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220511
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Although chances for some very light rain at the terminals is
starting to shape up have kept VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period. Hi-res models indicate very spotty showery activity
near the aviation terminals, but forecast soundings indicate a rather
deep saturated later, which should indicate a good possibility for
some light rain. Not confident in the least that any rain will cause
visibility restrictions as it sould remain very light. Cloud deck
should be around 3-4 kft, so will flirt with MVFR CIGs. Expect rain
chances to quickly end by noon, with the cloud deck perhaps becoming
more scattered through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expecting VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds should stay
high enough through the night to preclude much in the way of fog
development. Some low level clouds will work their way into the area
during the early morning hours. This will likely create a broken or
overcast deck around 4000 to 5000 feet. Some isolated to scattered
light showers could form within this deck, so have gone with a VCSH
group for KSTJ, where the better chance for rain appears. The KC
metro terminals might see a few sprinkles, so held off for now on
mention of precip, but will readdress perhaps a VCSH group on the 06z
issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expecting VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds should stay
high enough through the night to preclude much in the way of fog
development. Some low level clouds will work their way into the area
during the early morning hours. This will likely create a broken or
overcast deck around 4000 to 5000 feet. Some isolated to scattered
light showers could form within this deck, so have gone with a VCSH
group for KSTJ, where the better chance for rain appears. The KC
metro terminals might see a few sprinkles, so held off for now on
mention of precip, but will readdress perhaps a VCSH group on the 06z
issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Light southeast winds and VFR conditions will continue as high
pressure over the region slowly shifts east. Expect increasing clouds
around 5k ft to spread eastward across eastern KS/western MO early
Wednesday morning. Could see isolated very light showers from southeast
NE into northwest MO during this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211730
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Light southeast winds and VFR conditions will continue as high
pressure over the region slowly shifts east. Expect increasing clouds
around 5k ft to spread eastward across eastern KS/western MO early
Wednesday morning. Could see isolated very light showers from southeast
NE into northwest MO during this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the Kansas City terminals this
morning with light winds and VFR conditions to persist through the
next 24 hours. The KSTJ terminal will continue to fight with steam
fog off the Missouri River into the mid-morning hours, but otherwise
should be VFR for the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the Kansas City terminals this
morning with light winds and VFR conditions to persist through the
next 24 hours. The KSTJ terminal will continue to fight with steam
fog off the Missouri River into the mid-morning hours, but otherwise
should be VFR for the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the Kansas City terminals this
morning with light winds and VFR conditions to persist through the
next 24 hours. The KSTJ terminal will continue to fight with steam
fog off the Missouri River into the mid-morning hours, but otherwise
should be VFR for the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the Kansas City terminals this
morning with light winds and VFR conditions to persist through the
next 24 hours. The KSTJ terminal will continue to fight with steam
fog off the Missouri River into the mid-morning hours, but otherwise
should be VFR for the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210927
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
427 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210927
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
427 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 210504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably warm, dry conditions will continue across the region
through at least Wednesday evening as upper-level ridging slides
eastward over the Plains, and weak southerly flow returns at low
levels. The main focus in the forecast period will be the only real
chance for precipitation, which will come with a trough moving into
the central U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.

The trough, still just offshore, will head eastward over the next
several days and will eventually send a surface cold front east to
west across the forecast area. The latest model trends have been to
speed this feature up just a bit, but still not expecting anything
in the KC area and points east before midnight Wednesday night, and
also not anticipating that the system will speed up any more as it
moves onshore. Around 200-300 J/kg of elevated instability may be
available across eastern KS and far western MO during the Wednesday
night - early Thursday morning timeframe so have also added isolated
thunderstorms back into the forecast before 12z Thursday. After 12z
Thursday, the potential for thunder, precipitation chances, and
possible precipitation amounts will all gradually decrease as the
front heads east and surface convergence weakens.

After the parent trough exits the region to the east, above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs will likely reach the mid to even upper
70s this weekend through early next week, and lows should remain in
the upper 40s to lower 50s most nights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably warm, dry conditions will continue across the region
through at least Wednesday evening as upper-level ridging slides
eastward over the Plains, and weak southerly flow returns at low
levels. The main focus in the forecast period will be the only real
chance for precipitation, which will come with a trough moving into
the central U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.

The trough, still just offshore, will head eastward over the next
several days and will eventually send a surface cold front east to
west across the forecast area. The latest model trends have been to
speed this feature up just a bit, but still not expecting anything
in the KC area and points east before midnight Wednesday night, and
also not anticipating that the system will speed up any more as it
moves onshore. Around 200-300 J/kg of elevated instability may be
available across eastern KS and far western MO during the Wednesday
night - early Thursday morning timeframe so have also added isolated
thunderstorms back into the forecast before 12z Thursday. After 12z
Thursday, the potential for thunder, precipitation chances, and
possible precipitation amounts will all gradually decrease as the
front heads east and surface convergence weakens.

After the parent trough exits the region to the east, above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs will likely reach the mid to even upper
70s this weekend through early next week, and lows should remain in
the upper 40s to lower 50s most nights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 202326
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably warm, dry conditions will continue across the region
through at least Wednesday evening as upper-level ridging slides
eastward over the Plains, and weak southerly flow returns at low
levels. The main focus in the forecast period will be the only real
chance for precipitation, which will come with a trough moving into
the central U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.

The trough, still just offshore, will head eastward over the next
several days and will eventually send a surface cold front east to
west across the forecast area. The latest model trends have been to
speed this feature up just a bit, but still not expecting anything
in the KC area and points east before midnight Wednesday night, and
also not anticipating that the system will speed up any more as it
moves onshore. Around 200-300 J/kg of elevated instability may be
available across eastern KS and far western MO during the Wednesday
night - early Thursday morning timeframe so have also added isolated
thunderstorms back into the forecast before 12z Thursday. After 12z
Thursday, the potential for thunder, precipitation chances, and
possible precipitation amounts will all gradually decrease as the
front heads east and surface convergence weakens.

After the parent trough exits the region to the east, above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs will likely reach the mid to even upper
70s this weekend through early next week, and lows should remain in
the upper 40s to lower 50s most nights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Overall, will see continued VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Conditions overnight are climatologically favorable for fog
development in the early morning hours at all terminals, particularly at KSTJ.
KSTJ saw significant fog development the past few nights, and the
setup for tonight is even more favorable for early morning fog. Thus,
have included IFR visibility at KSTJ with a chance of LIFR
conditions. Otherwise, NE winds will transition to SE through the
forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 202326
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably warm, dry conditions will continue across the region
through at least Wednesday evening as upper-level ridging slides
eastward over the Plains, and weak southerly flow returns at low
levels. The main focus in the forecast period will be the only real
chance for precipitation, which will come with a trough moving into
the central U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.

The trough, still just offshore, will head eastward over the next
several days and will eventually send a surface cold front east to
west across the forecast area. The latest model trends have been to
speed this feature up just a bit, but still not expecting anything
in the KC area and points east before midnight Wednesday night, and
also not anticipating that the system will speed up any more as it
moves onshore. Around 200-300 J/kg of elevated instability may be
available across eastern KS and far western MO during the Wednesday
night - early Thursday morning timeframe so have also added isolated
thunderstorms back into the forecast before 12z Thursday. After 12z
Thursday, the potential for thunder, precipitation chances, and
possible precipitation amounts will all gradually decrease as the
front heads east and surface convergence weakens.

After the parent trough exits the region to the east, above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs will likely reach the mid to even upper
70s this weekend through early next week, and lows should remain in
the upper 40s to lower 50s most nights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Overall, will see continued VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Conditions overnight are climatologically favorable for fog
development in the early morning hours at all terminals, particularly at KSTJ.
KSTJ saw significant fog development the past few nights, and the
setup for tonight is even more favorable for early morning fog. Thus,
have included IFR visibility at KSTJ with a chance of LIFR
conditions. Otherwise, NE winds will transition to SE through the
forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202009
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably warm, dry conditions will continue across the region
through at least Wednesday evening as upper-level ridging slides
eastward over the Plains, and weak southerly flow returns at low
levels. The main focus in the forecast period will be the only real
chance for precipitation, which will come with a trough moving into
the central U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.

The trough, still just offshore, will head eastward over the next
several days and will eventually send a surface cold front east to
west across the forecast area. The latest model trends have been to
speed this feature up just a bit, but still not expecting anything
in the KC area and points east before midnight Wednesday night, and
also not anticipating that the system will speed up any more as it
moves onshore. Around 200-300 J/kg of elevated instability may be
available across eastern KS and far western MO during the Wednesday
night - early Thursday morning timeframe so have also added isolated
thunderstorms back into the forecast before 12z Thursday. After 12z
Thursday, the potential for thunder, precipitation chances, and
possible precipitation amounts will all gradually decrease as the
front heads east and surface convergence weakens.

After the parent trough exits the region to the east, above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs will likely reach the mid to even upper
70s this weekend through early next week, and lows should remain in
the upper 40s to lower 50s most nights.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Mainly VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected through
the TAF period. Some patchy light fog may develop at KSTJ as winds
go calm after 06z, and any fog that does develop may be slower to
dissipate with light winds after sunrise Tuesday. Light, patchy
ground fog is also possible at MCI and IXD, but confidence was too
low to include in the TAF at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 201753
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1253 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Mainly VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected through
the TAF period. Some patchy light fog may develop at KSTJ as winds
go calm after 06z, and any fog that does develop may be slower to
dissipate with light winds after sunrise Tuesday. Light, patchy
ground fog is also possible at MCI and IXD, but confidence was too
low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 201050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clear skies will prevail through the TAF period. Fog will affect STJ
through 13Z reducing vsbys to 1/2SM-1SM otrw...VFR conds are
expected. Winds will be lgt and vrb this morning picking up out of
the north btn 5-10kts today. Winds will again become lgt and vrb tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 201050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clear skies will prevail through the TAF period. Fog will affect STJ
through 13Z reducing vsbys to 1/2SM-1SM otrw...VFR conds are
expected. Winds will be lgt and vrb this morning picking up out of
the north btn 5-10kts today. Winds will again become lgt and vrb tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 200517
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh










000
FXUS63 KEAX 200517
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities