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000
FXUS63 KEAX 271715
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.

Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.

This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions expected through the first half of the forecast
period as surface high pressure continues to work to the east through
the afternoon. Winter weather is expected to commence toward the end
of the period around 16Z. Cloud cover ahead of this system will
filter in this evening and continue to lower through the overnight
and early morning hours. Expecting to see MVFR ceilings develop near
12Z with IFR conditions not out of question once snow begins to fall
at the terminal sites. The main forcing of the activity will occur
after 18Z, at which point IFR conditions are likely.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271715
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.

Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.

This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions expected through the first half of the forecast
period as surface high pressure continues to work to the east through
the afternoon. Winter weather is expected to commence toward the end
of the period around 16Z. Cloud cover ahead of this system will
filter in this evening and continue to lower through the overnight
and early morning hours. Expecting to see MVFR ceilings develop near
12Z with IFR conditions not out of question once snow begins to fall
at the terminal sites. The main forcing of the activity will occur
after 18Z, at which point IFR conditions are likely.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271715
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.

Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.

This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions expected through the first half of the forecast
period as surface high pressure continues to work to the east through
the afternoon. Winter weather is expected to commence toward the end
of the period around 16Z. Cloud cover ahead of this system will
filter in this evening and continue to lower through the overnight
and early morning hours. Expecting to see MVFR ceilings develop near
12Z with IFR conditions not out of question once snow begins to fall
at the terminal sites. The main forcing of the activity will occur
after 18Z, at which point IFR conditions are likely.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271715
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.

Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.

This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions expected through the first half of the forecast
period as surface high pressure continues to work to the east through
the afternoon. Winter weather is expected to commence toward the end
of the period around 16Z. Cloud cover ahead of this system will
filter in this evening and continue to lower through the overnight
and early morning hours. Expecting to see MVFR ceilings develop near
12Z with IFR conditions not out of question once snow begins to fall
at the terminal sites. The main forcing of the activity will occur
after 18Z, at which point IFR conditions are likely.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271111
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
511 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.

Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.

This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

There will be a increase and lowering in cloud cover though the TAF
pd although conditions will remain VFR. Expect sct cirrus early this
morning to become broken by mid morning. Cigs will then lower to
10kft late this afternoon as mid-lvl clouds moves into the area. Models
indicate a lvl of stratus around 5kft moves into the terminals btn
03Z-05Z and will persist through the remainder of the TAF pd. Winds
this morning will be light and vrb before picking up out the east
between 5-10kts this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 271111
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
511 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.

Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.

This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

There will be a increase and lowering in cloud cover though the TAF
pd although conditions will remain VFR. Expect sct cirrus early this
morning to become broken by mid morning. Cigs will then lower to
10kft late this afternoon as mid-lvl clouds moves into the area. Models
indicate a lvl of stratus around 5kft moves into the terminals btn
03Z-05Z and will persist through the remainder of the TAF pd. Winds
this morning will be light and vrb before picking up out the east
between 5-10kts this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270951
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.

Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.

This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mainly clear skies will continue across the region tonight and into
early Friday morning before higher clouds spread in with a gradual
lowering of ceilings. However, terminals will remain VFR through the
TAF period. North northeast winds at around 7 to 10 kts will
gradually diminish over the next few hours, then will gradually turn
to the southeast by Friday afternoon at speeds around or less than 5
kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270951
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.

Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.

This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mainly clear skies will continue across the region tonight and into
early Friday morning before higher clouds spread in with a gradual
lowering of ceilings. However, terminals will remain VFR through the
TAF period. North northeast winds at around 7 to 10 kts will
gradually diminish over the next few hours, then will gradually turn
to the southeast by Friday afternoon at speeds around or less than 5
kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270527
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mainly clear skies will continue across the region tonight and into
early Friday morning before higher clouds spread in with a gradual
lowering of ceilings. However, terminals will remain VFR through the
TAF period. North northeast winds at around 7 to 10 kts will
gradually diminish over the next few hours, then will gradually turn
to the southeast by Friday afternoon at speeds around or less than 5
kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mainly clear skies will continue across the region tonight and into
Friday, keeping all terminals VFR through the TAF period. North
northeast winds at around 7 to 10 kts will gradually diminish over
the next few hours, then will gradually turn to the southeast by
Friday afternoon at speeds around or less than 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mainly clear skies will continue across the region tonight and into
Friday, keeping all terminals VFR through the TAF period. North
northeast winds at around 7 to 10 kts will gradually diminish over
the next few hours, then will gradually turn to the southeast by
Friday afternoon at speeds around or less than 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mainly clear skies will continue across the region tonight and into
Friday, keeping all terminals VFR through the TAF period. North
northeast winds at around 7 to 10 kts will gradually diminish over
the next few hours, then will gradually turn to the southeast by
Friday afternoon at speeds around or less than 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mainly clear skies will continue across the region tonight and into
Friday, keeping all terminals VFR through the TAF period. North
northeast winds at around 7 to 10 kts will gradually diminish over
the next few hours, then will gradually turn to the southeast by
Friday afternoon at speeds around or less than 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262308
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Sustained north winds at around 10 to 12 kts will continue through
the next few hours, then will begin to diminish and gradually turn
to the east after 06z. Light east to southeast winds are expected
Friday, along the with continued clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262308
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Sustained north winds at around 10 to 12 kts will continue through
the next few hours, then will begin to diminish and gradually turn
to the east after 06z. Light east to southeast winds are expected
Friday, along the with continued clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262308
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Sustained north winds at around 10 to 12 kts will continue through
the next few hours, then will begin to diminish and gradually turn
to the east after 06z. Light east to southeast winds are expected
Friday, along the with continued clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262308
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Sustained north winds at around 10 to 12 kts will continue through
the next few hours, then will begin to diminish and gradually turn
to the east after 06z. Light east to southeast winds are expected
Friday, along the with continued clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262144
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 262144
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73








000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260946
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260946
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Cold front passing through the terminals as I type. Very strong and
gusty northwest winds through the night. Band of post frontal
rain and snow follows passage of front. Initially rain but quickly
changes to snow as temperatures fall dramatically, typically 15-20F
in around an hour of frontal passage. MVFR cigs also move in quickly
behind the front and will last through tomorrow morning. Cloud
bearing temperatures are cold enough to support flurries through the
night. Minor snow accumulations over western MO and eastern KS, less
than half an inch.

Expect VFR conditions by Thursday afternoon as MVFR cigs scatter out
but breezy conditions continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Cold front passing through the terminals as I type. Very strong and
gusty northwest winds through the night. Band of post frontal
rain and snow follows passage of front. Initially rain but quickly
changes to snow as temperatures fall dramatically, typically 15-20F
in around an hour of frontal passage. MVFR cigs also move in quickly
behind the front and will last through tomorrow morning. Cloud
bearing temperatures are cold enough to support flurries through the
night. Minor snow accumulations over western MO and eastern KS, less
than half an inch.

Expect VFR conditions by Thursday afternoon as MVFR cigs scatter out
but breezy conditions continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 260005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Cold front passing through the terminals as I type. Very strong and
gusty northwest winds through the night. Band of post frontal
rain and snow follows passage of front. Initially rain but quickly
changes to snow as temperatures fall dramatically, typically 15-20F
in around an hour of frontal passage. MVFR cigs also move in quickly
behind the front and will last through tomorrow morning. Cloud
bearing temperatures are cold enough to support flurries through the
night. Minor snow accumulations over western MO and eastern KS, less
than half an inch.

Expect VFR conditions by Thursday afternoon as MVFR cigs scatter out
but breezy conditions continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Strong cold front will drop through the region early this evening with
an area of rain/snow spreading into northern Missouri behind it. Most
accumulating snow will stay well to the northeast of the KC area,
mainly affecting CDJ and IRK areas, possibly down to DMO. For the STJ
and KC areas, a few rain/snow showers are possible for a few hours
behind the front but any snow accumulations will be under a half inch
with minimal impacts to air operations, although a rapid drop in
temperatures could freeze any water on runways. The bigger concern
will be the winds which may occasionally gust higher than 35 kt.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Strong cold front will drop through the region early this evening with
an area of rain/snow spreading into northern Missouri behind it. Most
accumulating snow will stay well to the northeast of the KC area,
mainly affecting CDJ and IRK areas, possibly down to DMO. For the STJ
and KC areas, a few rain/snow showers are possible for a few hours
behind the front but any snow accumulations will be under a half inch
with minimal impacts to air operations, although a rapid drop in
temperatures could freeze any water on runways. The bigger concern
will be the winds which may occasionally gust higher than 35 kt.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Strong cold front will drop through the region early this evening with
an area of rain/snow spreading into northern Missouri behind it. Most
accumulating snow will stay well to the northeast of the KC area,
mainly affecting CDJ and IRK areas, possibly down to DMO. For the STJ
and KC areas, a few rain/snow showers are possible for a few hours
behind the front but any snow accumulations will be under a half inch
with minimal impacts to air operations, although a rapid drop in
temperatures could freeze any water on runways. The bigger concern
will be the winds which may occasionally gust higher than 35 kt.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251725
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

This morning`s model runs, including the short-term HRRR and RAP,
continue to trend a bit further east with the surface low track which
now looks to track from near Maryville to just west of Chillicothe to
near Boonville. Didn`t make any significant changes to snow amounts
to the east of the low track, still generally 2" to 4" across the
advisory area, but it now looks like anything more than 4" will be
just outside our CWA across southeast IA. With the surface low
tracking over Maryville, any advisory-level snows should fall just
east of Nodaway County so this county was removed from the winter
weather advisory.

To the west of the low track, any precipitation will be limited to a
short-window just behind a cold front which will track through later
this evening. This front will bring a rapid drop in temperatures so
that any precipitation that starts as rain should quickly be able to
switch to snow. Decent post-frontal convergence and shallow low-
level frontogenesis may still be able to squeeze out a quick sprinkle
or snow shower despite the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR keeping
these areas completely dry. However the odds of any snow accumulation
reaching an inch or more are low. Updated the forecast for the KC
metro and points south and west to keep snow amounts generally under
a half inch. The bigger concern for these areas will be potential
flash-freezing of any rain or melting snow that does fall, with
temperatures forecast to be dropping into the 20s across all areas by
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Strong cold front will drop through the region early this evening with
an area of rain/snow spreading into northern Missouri behind it. Most
accumulating snow will stay well to the northeast of the KC area,
mainly affecting CDJ and IRK areas, possibly down to DMO. For the STJ
and KC areas, a few rain/snow showers are possible for a few hours
behind the front but any snow accumulations will be under a half inch
with minimal impacts to air operations, although a rapid drop in
temperatures could freeze any water on runways. The bigger concern
will be the winds which may occasionally gust higher than 35 kt.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ003>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251605
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1005 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

This morning`s model runs, including the short-term HRRR and RAP,
continue to trend a bit further east with the surface low track which
now looks to track from near Maryville to just west of Chillicothe to
near Boonville. Didn`t make any significant changes to snow amounts
to the east of the low track, still generally 2" to 4" across the
advisory area, but it now looks like anything more than 4" will be
just outside our CWA across southeast IA. With the surface low
tracking over Maryville, any advisory-level snows should fall just
east of Nodaway County so this county was removed from the winter
weather advisory.

To the west of the low track, any precipitation will be limited to a
short-window just behind a cold front which will track through later
this evening. This front will bring a rapid drop in temperatures so
that any precipitation that starts as rain should quickly be able to
switch to snow. Decent post-frontal convergence and shallow low-
level frontogenesis may still be able to squeeze out a quick sprinkle
or snow shower despite the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR keeping
these areas completely dry. However the odds of any snow accumulation
reaching an inch or more are low. Updated the forecast for the KC
metro and points south and west to keep snow amounts generally under
a half inch. The bigger concern for these areas will be potential
flash-freezing of any rain or melting snow that does fall, with
temperatures forecast to be dropping into the 20s across all areas by
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions to continue much of the day with southwest winds
between 10-15 kts. By early evening...conditions will quickly
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR and long anticipated storm
system moves overhead. Precip initially in the form of a RA/SN mix
will gradually change over to all SN as colder air filters into the
area. Terminals standing the best chance of seeing IFR VSBYs will be
STJ and MCI...with lower probabilities at remaining sites further south.
Precip will come to an end by 4z with low-end MVFR cigs remaining in
place through the duration of the fcst period. After fropa...winds
will quickly increase from the north by mid/late evening with north
winds gusting up to 35 kts overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ003>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251605
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1005 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

This morning`s model runs, including the short-term HRRR and RAP,
continue to trend a bit further east with the surface low track which
now looks to track from near Maryville to just west of Chillicothe to
near Boonville. Didn`t make any significant changes to snow amounts
to the east of the low track, still generally 2" to 4" across the
advisory area, but it now looks like anything more than 4" will be
just outside our CWA across southeast IA. With the surface low
tracking over Maryville, any advisory-level snows should fall just
east of Nodaway County so this county was removed from the winter
weather advisory.

To the west of the low track, any precipitation will be limited to a
short-window just behind a cold front which will track through later
this evening. This front will bring a rapid drop in temperatures so
that any precipitation that starts as rain should quickly be able to
switch to snow. Decent post-frontal convergence and shallow low-
level frontogenesis may still be able to squeeze out a quick sprinkle
or snow shower despite the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR keeping
these areas completely dry. However the odds of any snow accumulation
reaching an inch or more are low. Updated the forecast for the KC
metro and points south and west to keep snow amounts generally under
a half inch. The bigger concern for these areas will be potential
flash-freezing of any rain or melting snow that does fall, with
temperatures forecast to be dropping into the 20s across all areas by
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions to continue much of the day with southwest winds
between 10-15 kts. By early evening...conditions will quickly
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR and long anticipated storm
system moves overhead. Precip initially in the form of a RA/SN mix
will gradually change over to all SN as colder air filters into the
area. Terminals standing the best chance of seeing IFR VSBYs will be
STJ and MCI...with lower probabilities at remaining sites further south.
Precip will come to an end by 4z with low-end MVFR cigs remaining in
place through the duration of the fcst period. After fropa...winds
will quickly increase from the north by mid/late evening with north
winds gusting up to 35 kts overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ003>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions to continue much of the day with southwest winds
between 10-15 kts. By early evening...conditions will quickly
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR and long anticipated storm
system moves overhead. Precip initially in the form of a RA/SN mix
will gradually change over to all SN as colder air filters into the
area. Terminals standing the best chance of seeing IFR VSBYs will be
STJ and MCI...with lower probabilities at remaining sites further south.
Precip will come to an end by 4z with low-end MVFR cigs remaining in
place through the duration of the fcst period. After fropa...winds
will quickly increase from the north by mid/late evening with north
winds gusting up to 35 kts overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions to continue much of the day with southwest winds
between 10-15 kts. By early evening...conditions will quickly
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR and long anticipated storm
system moves overhead. Precip initially in the form of a RA/SN mix
will gradually change over to all SN as colder air filters into the
area. Terminals standing the best chance of seeing IFR VSBYs will be
STJ and MCI...with lower probabilities at remaining sites further south.
Precip will come to an end by 4z with low-end MVFR cigs remaining in
place through the duration of the fcst period. After fropa...winds
will quickly increase from the north by mid/late evening with north
winds gusting up to 35 kts overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251012
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across the western zones to include the KC
and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering snowpack remains in place
along and north of the Missouri River which will likely result in a
fairly impressive thermal gradient later this afternoon. Meanwhile
areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent chance of warming up
today as these areas also remain snow free. In any event...warmer
temps and the overall delay by a few hours of when precip will start
across our region has resulted in changes to the fcst to include snow
amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival time...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC
area...with even less across our eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri zones. Further east with the heaviest precip is expected to
fall...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast storm
movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to slightly
lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect 2-4"
across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year. Any precip with this weekend/s system to hold off until
later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Latest model guidance suggests that precip chances will arrive a bit
later than previous TAF issuance. Precip looks to move in tomorrow
afternoon and depending on the arrival of the system, precip will
likely begin as rain before changing over to snow. There may be a
brief period of a rain/snow mix or wintry precip mix before the
changeover to all snow occurs. Timing on precip will likely change as
this system develops, but current forecast indicates changeover to occur
between a 23Z-01Z time frame. MVFR cigs will be possible as the
precip moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251012
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across the western zones to include the KC
and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering snowpack remains in place
along and north of the Missouri River which will likely result in a
fairly impressive thermal gradient later this afternoon. Meanwhile
areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent chance of warming up
today as these areas also remain snow free. In any event...warmer
temps and the overall delay by a few hours of when precip will start
across our region has resulted in changes to the fcst to include snow
amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival time...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC
area...with even less across our eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri zones. Further east with the heaviest precip is expected to
fall...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast storm
movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to slightly
lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect 2-4"
across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year. Any precip with this weekend/s system to hold off until
later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Latest model guidance suggests that precip chances will arrive a bit
later than previous TAF issuance. Precip looks to move in tomorrow
afternoon and depending on the arrival of the system, precip will
likely begin as rain before changing over to snow. There may be a
brief period of a rain/snow mix or wintry precip mix before the
changeover to all snow occurs. Timing on precip will likely change as
this system develops, but current forecast indicates changeover to occur
between a 23Z-01Z time frame. MVFR cigs will be possible as the
precip moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1134 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Latest model guidance suggests that precip chances will arrive a bit
later than previous TAF issuance. Precip looks to move in tomorrow
afternoon and depending on the arrival of the system, precip will
likely begin as rain before changing over to snow. There may be a
brief period of a rain/snow mix or wintry precip mix before the
changeover to all snow occurs. Timing on precip will likely change as
this system develops, but current forecast indicates changeover to occur
between a 23Z-01Z time frame. MVFR cigs will be possible as the
precip moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1134 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Latest model guidance suggests that precip chances will arrive a bit
later than previous TAF issuance. Precip looks to move in tomorrow
afternoon and depending on the arrival of the system, precip will
likely begin as rain before changing over to snow. There may be a
brief period of a rain/snow mix or wintry precip mix before the
changeover to all snow occurs. Timing on precip will likely change as
this system develops, but current forecast indicates changeover to occur
between a 23Z-01Z time frame. MVFR cigs will be possible as the
precip moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242144
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Not anticipating any weather to impact aviation over the next 24
hours. Winds will gradually continue to veer around the dial to NW
this evening, then ultimately back to the SE by Wed morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242144
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Not anticipating any weather to impact aviation over the next 24
hours. Winds will gradually continue to veer around the dial to NW
this evening, then ultimately back to the SE by Wed morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KEAX 242144
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Not anticipating any weather to impact aviation over the next 24
hours. Winds will gradually continue to veer around the dial to NW
this evening, then ultimately back to the SE by Wed morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton







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