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000
FXUS63 KEAX 040500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley
through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of
today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of
the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower
to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. The
remnants of this morning`s convection has dwindled to a couple
showers in northwest Missouri. As the day progresses there is a
slight chance of some afternoon showers, with perhaps the better
chances for rain along and west/south of the aforementioned
boundary, that resides in the KC metro area and extends toward the
NW and SE. Visible imagery suggests some CU along and south of the
boundary, which could be the better sign for convective development,
but forecast soundings in the area indicate a rather stout cap. So,
it`ll likely come down to a well timed embedded shortwave trough
within the ambient NW flow aloft to kick something off. At this
point, short-range convective models, which have not done a
tremendous job of predicting convection have the area dry. Despite
this generally dry forecast within the HRRR, will keep some slight
chance PoPs going through the afternoon, again, generally along and
south/west of the outflow. By tonight, around midnight there is at
least some hint with the NAM that a very subtle wave could roll
through the area. This wave could kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri, most likely along and north
of Interstate 70, although cold pool formation and organization
could allow these storms to push a little farther south, toward I-
70, or possible parts south of I-70.

The active period continues through the day on Tuesday. A surface
trough forms ahead of a fairly potent mid level trough Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This low level trough will be rather classic in
nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow
ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid
level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will
offer abundant mid level support for ascent. This will kick off
several rounds of widespread rain across the area. Forecast models
have been a bit inconsistent regarding the track of this wave, but
latest runs of GFS and NAM indicate a more southerly track of this
wave, which would put areas along and south of I-70 in the
crosshairs of moderate to heavy rain. Should the trend to the south
continue it`s possible this system will be more likely to impact
southern and central Missouri, across the I-44 corridor. Wherever
this wave tracks will likely see several inches of rain through the
overnight hours Tuesday night and through Sunday. Further
complicating matters is the potential for severe weather ahead of
the system. As mentioned earlier, there will be a pretty classic low
level cyclone with this system, which will create a strongly veering-
with-height wind profile, causing clockwise, curved, and long
hodographs. For now it appears the wave will be coming through the
area at minimum heating, which would diminish the severe threat, but
should the wave slow down much and allow surface heating before
moving through there could be some severe weather with this system.
Again, with models being so inconsistent with placement and timing
there isn`t much confidence going into the specific evolution, but
overall it appears to be rather wet and possibly severe somewhere
across southern and central Missouri on Wednesday.

For the later part of the week, the only real synoptically evident
signal is the mid level ridge sliding toward the desert southwest,
which will create some decent mid level flow over the area. This
will keep the chances for rain alive through the middle to later
part of the week, as various complexes form across the Northern and
Central Plains and glide through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Overnight convection for KSTJ will be the short-term impact through
the overnight hours. This activity should primarily impact northern
Missouri and not affect the Kansas City area overnight, though there
is a chance of an isolated storm or two should the storms hold
together. Isolated convection will resume Tuesday afternoon for all
terminal sites with more widespread coverage initiating during the
evening. Visibility will likely be reduced during peak activity and
will continue through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley
through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of
today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of
the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower
to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. The
remnants of this morning`s convection has dwindled to a couple
showers in northwest Missouri. As the day progresses there is a
slight chance of some afternoon showers, with perhaps the better
chances for rain along and west/south of the aforementioned
boundary, that resides in the KC metro area and extends toward the
NW and SE. Visible imagery suggests some CU along and south of the
boundary, which could be the better sign for convective development,
but forecast soundings in the area indicate a rather stout cap. So,
it`ll likely come down to a well timed embedded shortwave trough
within the ambient NW flow aloft to kick something off. At this
point, short-range convective models, which have not done a
tremendous job of predicting convection have the area dry. Despite
this generally dry forecast within the HRRR, will keep some slight
chance PoPs going through the afternoon, again, generally along and
south/west of the outflow. By tonight, around midnight there is at
least some hint with the NAM that a very subtle wave could roll
through the area. This wave could kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri, most likely along and north
of Interstate 70, although cold pool formation and organization
could allow these storms to push a little farther south, toward I-
70, or possible parts south of I-70.

The active period continues through the day on Tuesday. A surface
trough forms ahead of a fairly potent mid level trough Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This low level trough will be rather classic in
nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow
ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid
level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will
offer abundant mid level support for ascent. This will kick off
several rounds of widespread rain across the area. Forecast models
have been a bit inconsistent regarding the track of this wave, but
latest runs of GFS and NAM indicate a more southerly track of this
wave, which would put areas along and south of I-70 in the
crosshairs of moderate to heavy rain. Should the trend to the south
continue it`s possible this system will be more likely to impact
southern and central Missouri, across the I-44 corridor. Wherever
this wave tracks will likely see several inches of rain through the
overnight hours Tuesday night and through Sunday. Further
complicating matters is the potential for severe weather ahead of
the system. As mentioned earlier, there will be a pretty classic low
level cyclone with this system, which will create a strongly veering-
with-height wind profile, causing clockwise, curved, and long
hodographs. For now it appears the wave will be coming through the
area at minimum heating, which would diminish the severe threat, but
should the wave slow down much and allow surface heating before
moving through there could be some severe weather with this system.
Again, with models being so inconsistent with placement and timing
there isn`t much confidence going into the specific evolution, but
overall it appears to be rather wet and possibly severe somewhere
across southern and central Missouri on Wednesday.

For the later part of the week, the only real synoptically evident
signal is the mid level ridge sliding toward the desert southwest,
which will create some decent mid level flow over the area. This
will keep the chances for rain alive through the middle to later
part of the week, as various complexes form across the Northern and
Central Plains and glide through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Overnight convection for KSTJ will be the short-term impact through
the overnight hours. This activity should primarily impact northern
Missouri and not affect the Kansas City area overnight, though there
is a chance of an isolated storm or two should the storms hold
together. Isolated convection will resume Tuesday afternoon for all
terminal sites with more widespread coverage initiating during the
evening. Visibility will likely be reduced during peak activity and
will continue through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 040500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley
through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of
today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of
the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower
to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. The
remnants of this morning`s convection has dwindled to a couple
showers in northwest Missouri. As the day progresses there is a
slight chance of some afternoon showers, with perhaps the better
chances for rain along and west/south of the aforementioned
boundary, that resides in the KC metro area and extends toward the
NW and SE. Visible imagery suggests some CU along and south of the
boundary, which could be the better sign for convective development,
but forecast soundings in the area indicate a rather stout cap. So,
it`ll likely come down to a well timed embedded shortwave trough
within the ambient NW flow aloft to kick something off. At this
point, short-range convective models, which have not done a
tremendous job of predicting convection have the area dry. Despite
this generally dry forecast within the HRRR, will keep some slight
chance PoPs going through the afternoon, again, generally along and
south/west of the outflow. By tonight, around midnight there is at
least some hint with the NAM that a very subtle wave could roll
through the area. This wave could kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri, most likely along and north
of Interstate 70, although cold pool formation and organization
could allow these storms to push a little farther south, toward I-
70, or possible parts south of I-70.

The active period continues through the day on Tuesday. A surface
trough forms ahead of a fairly potent mid level trough Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This low level trough will be rather classic in
nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow
ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid
level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will
offer abundant mid level support for ascent. This will kick off
several rounds of widespread rain across the area. Forecast models
have been a bit inconsistent regarding the track of this wave, but
latest runs of GFS and NAM indicate a more southerly track of this
wave, which would put areas along and south of I-70 in the
crosshairs of moderate to heavy rain. Should the trend to the south
continue it`s possible this system will be more likely to impact
southern and central Missouri, across the I-44 corridor. Wherever
this wave tracks will likely see several inches of rain through the
overnight hours Tuesday night and through Sunday. Further
complicating matters is the potential for severe weather ahead of
the system. As mentioned earlier, there will be a pretty classic low
level cyclone with this system, which will create a strongly veering-
with-height wind profile, causing clockwise, curved, and long
hodographs. For now it appears the wave will be coming through the
area at minimum heating, which would diminish the severe threat, but
should the wave slow down much and allow surface heating before
moving through there could be some severe weather with this system.
Again, with models being so inconsistent with placement and timing
there isn`t much confidence going into the specific evolution, but
overall it appears to be rather wet and possibly severe somewhere
across southern and central Missouri on Wednesday.

For the later part of the week, the only real synoptically evident
signal is the mid level ridge sliding toward the desert southwest,
which will create some decent mid level flow over the area. This
will keep the chances for rain alive through the middle to later
part of the week, as various complexes form across the Northern and
Central Plains and glide through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Overnight convection for KSTJ will be the short-term impact through
the overnight hours. This activity should primarily impact northern
Missouri and not affect the Kansas City area overnight, though there
is a chance of an isolated storm or two should the storms hold
together. Isolated convection will resume Tuesday afternoon for all
terminal sites with more widespread coverage initiating during the
evening. Visibility will likely be reduced during peak activity and
will continue through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley
through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of
today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of
the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower
to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. The
remnants of this morning`s convection has dwindled to a couple
showers in northwest Missouri. As the day progresses there is a
slight chance of some afternoon showers, with perhaps the better
chances for rain along and west/south of the aforementioned
boundary, that resides in the KC metro area and extends toward the
NW and SE. Visible imagery suggests some CU along and south of the
boundary, which could be the better sign for convective development,
but forecast soundings in the area indicate a rather stout cap. So,
it`ll likely come down to a well timed embedded shortwave trough
within the ambient NW flow aloft to kick something off. At this
point, short-range convective models, which have not done a
tremendous job of predicting convection have the area dry. Despite
this generally dry forecast within the HRRR, will keep some slight
chance PoPs going through the afternoon, again, generally along and
south/west of the outflow. By tonight, around midnight there is at
least some hint with the NAM that a very subtle wave could roll
through the area. This wave could kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri, most likely along and north
of Interstate 70, although cold pool formation and organization
could allow these storms to push a little farther south, toward I-
70, or possible parts south of I-70.

The active period continues through the day on Tuesday. A surface
trough forms ahead of a fairly potent mid level trough Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This low level trough will be rather classic in
nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow
ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid
level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will
offer abundant mid level support for ascent. This will kick off
several rounds of widespread rain across the area. Forecast models
have been a bit inconsistent regarding the track of this wave, but
latest runs of GFS and NAM indicate a more southerly track of this
wave, which would put areas along and south of I-70 in the
crosshairs of moderate to heavy rain. Should the trend to the south
continue it`s possible this system will be more likely to impact
southern and central Missouri, across the I-44 corridor. Wherever
this wave tracks will likely see several inches of rain through the
overnight hours Tuesday night and through Sunday. Further
complicating matters is the potential for severe weather ahead of
the system. As mentioned earlier, there will be a pretty classic low
level cyclone with this system, which will create a strongly veering-
with-height wind profile, causing clockwise, curved, and long
hodographs. For now it appears the wave will be coming through the
area at minimum heating, which would diminish the severe threat, but
should the wave slow down much and allow surface heating before
moving through there could be some severe weather with this system.
Again, with models being so inconsistent with placement and timing
there isn`t much confidence going into the specific evolution, but
overall it appears to be rather wet and possibly severe somewhere
across southern and central Missouri on Wednesday.

For the later part of the week, the only real synoptically evident
signal is the mid level ridge sliding toward the desert southwest,
which will create some decent mid level flow over the area. This
will keep the chances for rain alive through the middle to later
part of the week, as various complexes form across the Northern and
Central Plains and glide through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Overnight convection for KSTJ will be the short-term impact through
the overnight hours. This activity should primarily impact northern
Missouri and not affect the Kansas City area overnight, though there
is a chance of an isolated storm or two should the storms hold
together. Isolated convection will resume Tuesday afternoon for all
terminal sites with more widespread coverage initiating during the
evening. Visibility will likely be reduced during peak activity and
will continue through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 032339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley
through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of
today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of
the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower
to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. The
remnants of this morning`s convection has dwindled to a couple
showers in northwest Missouri. As the day progresses there is a
slight chance of some afternoon showers, with perhaps the better
chances for rain along and west/south of the aforementioned
boundary, that resides in the KC metro area and extends toward the
NW and SE. Visible imagery suggests some CU along and south of the
boundary, which could be the better sign for convective development,
but forecast soundings in the area indicate a rather stout cap. So,
it`ll likely come down to a well timed embedded shortwave trough
within the ambient NW flow aloft to kick something off. At this
point, short-range convective models, which have not done a
tremendous job of predicting convection have the area dry. Despite
this generally dry forecast within the HRRR, will keep some slight
chance PoPs going through the afternoon, again, generally along and
south/west of the outflow. By tonight, around midnight there is at
least some hint with the NAM that a very subtle wave could roll
through the area. This wave could kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri, most likely along and north
of Interstate 70, although cold pool formation and organization
could allow these storms to push a little farther south, toward I-
70, or possible parts south of I-70.

The active period continues through the day on Tuesday. A surface
trough forms ahead of a fairly potent mid level trough Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This low level trough will be rather classic in
nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow
ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid
level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will
offer abundant mid level support for ascent. This will kick off
several rounds of widespread rain across the area. Forecast models
have been a bit inconsistent regarding the track of this wave, but
latest runs of GFS and NAM indicate a more southerly track of this
wave, which would put areas along and south of I-70 in the
crosshairs of moderate to heavy rain. Should the trend to the south
continue it`s possible this system will be more likely to impact
southern and central Missouri, across the I-44 corridor. Wherever
this wave tracks will likely see several inches of rain through the
overnight hours Tuesday night and through Sunday. Further
complicating matters is the potential for severe weather ahead of
the system. As mentioned earlier, there will be a pretty classic low
level cyclone with this system, which will create a strongly veering-
with-height wind profile, causing clockwise, curved, and long
hodographs. For now it appears the wave will be coming through the
area at minimum heating, which would diminish the severe threat, but
should the wave slow down much and allow surface heating before
moving through there could be some severe weather with this system.
Again, with models being so inconsistent with placement and timing
there isn`t much confidence going into the specific evolution, but
overall it appears to be rather wet and possibly severe somewhere
across southern and central Missouri on Wednesday.

For the later part of the week, the only real synoptically evident
signal is the mid level ridge sliding toward the desert southwest,
which will create some decent mid level flow over the area. This
will keep the chances for rain alive through the middle to later
part of the week, as various complexes form across the Northern and
Central Plains and glide through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The evening hours should remain dry as an outflow boundary from
earlier convection to the east has since pushed to the west of Kansas
City. However, overnight convection is expected as a subtle wave may
trigger activity surrounding the terminal sites. The models have not
handled convection well as of late, so may need to fine tune the
timing of convection through the evening hours. Stronger forcing will
present additional thunderstorm development beginning Tuesday
afternoon and will likely persist beyond the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 032339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley
through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of
today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of
the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower
to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. The
remnants of this morning`s convection has dwindled to a couple
showers in northwest Missouri. As the day progresses there is a
slight chance of some afternoon showers, with perhaps the better
chances for rain along and west/south of the aforementioned
boundary, that resides in the KC metro area and extends toward the
NW and SE. Visible imagery suggests some CU along and south of the
boundary, which could be the better sign for convective development,
but forecast soundings in the area indicate a rather stout cap. So,
it`ll likely come down to a well timed embedded shortwave trough
within the ambient NW flow aloft to kick something off. At this
point, short-range convective models, which have not done a
tremendous job of predicting convection have the area dry. Despite
this generally dry forecast within the HRRR, will keep some slight
chance PoPs going through the afternoon, again, generally along and
south/west of the outflow. By tonight, around midnight there is at
least some hint with the NAM that a very subtle wave could roll
through the area. This wave could kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri, most likely along and north
of Interstate 70, although cold pool formation and organization
could allow these storms to push a little farther south, toward I-
70, or possible parts south of I-70.

The active period continues through the day on Tuesday. A surface
trough forms ahead of a fairly potent mid level trough Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This low level trough will be rather classic in
nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow
ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid
level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will
offer abundant mid level support for ascent. This will kick off
several rounds of widespread rain across the area. Forecast models
have been a bit inconsistent regarding the track of this wave, but
latest runs of GFS and NAM indicate a more southerly track of this
wave, which would put areas along and south of I-70 in the
crosshairs of moderate to heavy rain. Should the trend to the south
continue it`s possible this system will be more likely to impact
southern and central Missouri, across the I-44 corridor. Wherever
this wave tracks will likely see several inches of rain through the
overnight hours Tuesday night and through Sunday. Further
complicating matters is the potential for severe weather ahead of
the system. As mentioned earlier, there will be a pretty classic low
level cyclone with this system, which will create a strongly veering-
with-height wind profile, causing clockwise, curved, and long
hodographs. For now it appears the wave will be coming through the
area at minimum heating, which would diminish the severe threat, but
should the wave slow down much and allow surface heating before
moving through there could be some severe weather with this system.
Again, with models being so inconsistent with placement and timing
there isn`t much confidence going into the specific evolution, but
overall it appears to be rather wet and possibly severe somewhere
across southern and central Missouri on Wednesday.

For the later part of the week, the only real synoptically evident
signal is the mid level ridge sliding toward the desert southwest,
which will create some decent mid level flow over the area. This
will keep the chances for rain alive through the middle to later
part of the week, as various complexes form across the Northern and
Central Plains and glide through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The evening hours should remain dry as an outflow boundary from
earlier convection to the east has since pushed to the west of Kansas
City. However, overnight convection is expected as a subtle wave may
trigger activity surrounding the terminal sites. The models have not
handled convection well as of late, so may need to fine tune the
timing of convection through the evening hours. Stronger forcing will
present additional thunderstorm development beginning Tuesday
afternoon and will likely persist beyond the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 032120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
420 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley
through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of
today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of
the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower
to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. The
remnants of this morning`s convection has dwindled to a couple
showers in northwest Missouri. As the day progresses there is a
slight chance of some afternoon showers, with perhaps the better
chances for rain along and west/south of the aforementioned
boundary, that resides in the KC metro area and extends toward the
NW and SE. Visible imagery suggests some CU along and south of the
boundary, which could be the better sign for convective development,
but forecast soundings in the area indicate a rather stout cap. So,
it`ll likely come down to a well timed embedded shortwave trough
within the ambient NW flow aloft to kick something off. At this
point, short-range convective models, which have not done a
tremendous job of predicting convection have the area dry. Despite
this generally dry forecast within the HRRR, will keep some slight
chance PoPs going through the afternoon, again, generally along and
south/west of the outflow. By tonight, around midnight there is at
least some hint with the NAM that a very subtle wave could roll
through the area. This wave could kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri, most likely along and north
of Interstate 70, although cold pool formation and organization
could allow these storms to push a little farther south, toward I-
70, or possible parts south of I-70.

The active period continues through the day on Tuesday. A surface
trough forms ahead of a fairly potent mid level trough Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This low level trough will be rather classic in
nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow
ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid
level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will
offer abundant mid level support for ascent. This will kick off
several rounds of widespread rain across the area. Forecast models
have been a bit inconsistent regarding the track of this wave, but
latest runs of GFS and NAM indicate a more southerly track of this
wave, which would put areas along and south of I-70 in the
crosshairs of moderate to heavy rain. Should the trend to the south
continue it`s possible this system will be more likely to impact
southern and central Missouri, across the I-44 corridor. Wherever
this wave tracks will likely see several inches of rain through the
overnight hours Tuesday night and through Sunday. Further
complicating matters is the potential for severe weather ahead of
the system. As mentioned earlier, there will be a pretty classic low
level cyclone with this system, which will create a strongly veering-
with-height wind profile, causing clockwise, curved, and long
hodographs. For now it appears the wave will be coming through the
area at minimum heating, which would diminish the severe threat, but
should the wave slow down much and allow surface heating before
moving through there could be some severe weather with this system.
Again, with models being so inconsistent with placement and timing
there isn`t much confidence going into the specific evolution, but
overall it appears to be rather wet and possibly severe somewhere
across southern and central Missouri on Wednesday.

For the later part of the week, the only real synoptically evident
signal is the mid level ridge sliding toward the desert southwest,
which will create some decent mid level flow over the area. This
will keep the chances for rain alive through the middle to later
part of the week, as various complexes form across the Northern and
Central Plains and glide through the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at
330 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Short range models have been less than helpful over the last several
days/weeks, and that trend continues today. Seems like T-storm
activity has weakened/died as it moved across HWY 36, so remained
optimistic that showers would evade KMCI. Went ahead and kept the
20z VCTS group as it still indicates some activity in that time frame
near the terminal. NAM is more aggressive with rain later this
evening/overnight, so went with another VC group through the midnight
hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 032120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
420 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley
through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of
today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of
the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower
to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. The
remnants of this morning`s convection has dwindled to a couple
showers in northwest Missouri. As the day progresses there is a
slight chance of some afternoon showers, with perhaps the better
chances for rain along and west/south of the aforementioned
boundary, that resides in the KC metro area and extends toward the
NW and SE. Visible imagery suggests some CU along and south of the
boundary, which could be the better sign for convective development,
but forecast soundings in the area indicate a rather stout cap. So,
it`ll likely come down to a well timed embedded shortwave trough
within the ambient NW flow aloft to kick something off. At this
point, short-range convective models, which have not done a
tremendous job of predicting convection have the area dry. Despite
this generally dry forecast within the HRRR, will keep some slight
chance PoPs going through the afternoon, again, generally along and
south/west of the outflow. By tonight, around midnight there is at
least some hint with the NAM that a very subtle wave could roll
through the area. This wave could kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri, most likely along and north
of Interstate 70, although cold pool formation and organization
could allow these storms to push a little farther south, toward I-
70, or possible parts south of I-70.

The active period continues through the day on Tuesday. A surface
trough forms ahead of a fairly potent mid level trough Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This low level trough will be rather classic in
nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow
ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid
level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will
offer abundant mid level support for ascent. This will kick off
several rounds of widespread rain across the area. Forecast models
have been a bit inconsistent regarding the track of this wave, but
latest runs of GFS and NAM indicate a more southerly track of this
wave, which would put areas along and south of I-70 in the
crosshairs of moderate to heavy rain. Should the trend to the south
continue it`s possible this system will be more likely to impact
southern and central Missouri, across the I-44 corridor. Wherever
this wave tracks will likely see several inches of rain through the
overnight hours Tuesday night and through Sunday. Further
complicating matters is the potential for severe weather ahead of
the system. As mentioned earlier, there will be a pretty classic low
level cyclone with this system, which will create a strongly veering-
with-height wind profile, causing clockwise, curved, and long
hodographs. For now it appears the wave will be coming through the
area at minimum heating, which would diminish the severe threat, but
should the wave slow down much and allow surface heating before
moving through there could be some severe weather with this system.
Again, with models being so inconsistent with placement and timing
there isn`t much confidence going into the specific evolution, but
overall it appears to be rather wet and possibly severe somewhere
across southern and central Missouri on Wednesday.

For the later part of the week, the only real synoptically evident
signal is the mid level ridge sliding toward the desert southwest,
which will create some decent mid level flow over the area. This
will keep the chances for rain alive through the middle to later
part of the week, as various complexes form across the Northern and
Central Plains and glide through the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at
330 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Short range models have been less than helpful over the last several
days/weeks, and that trend continues today. Seems like T-storm
activity has weakened/died as it moved across HWY 36, so remained
optimistic that showers would evade KMCI. Went ahead and kept the
20z VCTS group as it still indicates some activity in that time frame
near the terminal. NAM is more aggressive with rain later this
evening/overnight, so went with another VC group through the midnight
hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton





000
FXUS63 KEAX 031145
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Today - Tonight:

Scattered convection continues to bubble within a narrow corridor
lying northwest-southeast over northwest MO. While a cold
front has nosed into northern MO it appears isentropic
ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces is the primary
driver, the same mechanism which aided convection over the past 2
days. Due to several outflow boundaries put out by Sunday nights
convection its difficult to locate the cold front his morning.

The short range models weaken the isentropic ascent this morning so
the current convection should dissipate. Going forward think the
cold front will stall over the CWA today with model consensus
dividing the CWA in half. Isolated/widely scattered convection
possible along/north of the boundary during peak afternoon heating.
Pulse type convection with potential for microbursts due to extreme
instability, 0-6km shear of 4000J/kg near the front, and 25-
30kt of 0-6km shear.

Conditions for more organized/widespread convection expected
overnight due to a modest increase in the southwesterly low-level
jet. These winds should transport the higher theta-e air northeast
and over the slowly retreating front. Highest PoPs painted across
the northern 1/3 of the CWA.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

This looks like the most favorable period for more widespread
convection with heavy rain potential as precipitable water values
exceed 2 inches or around 150% of average or 99th percentile. Models
have been clear for the past 3 days that a well defined shortwave
trough will migrate eastward across the Central Rockies and Central
Plains. While there remains some timing and location differences
between the models they all agree that a couple rounds of convection
are likely over the CWA. High temperatures will be a bit problematic
as convective debris and any prolonged bouts of convection will
greatly limit heating. For now will shoot for the high end on the
assumption there will be sufficient heating to achieve seasonal
temperatures.

Thursday - Sunday:

Operational models gradually build the dome of high pressure back
into the central U.S. with surface riding from the Great Lakes
into the Mid MO Valley. This isn`t much different than previous
runs. What is different is the models now modify this airmass
over time resulting in slightly below average to average
temperatures.

Thursday night and Saturday night currently carry the highest
chances for rain which is typical for this time of year. Both
the GFS and ECMWF bring a couple shortwave troughs over the top of
the broad upper high and through IA/MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Small area of convection continues to pulse up and down over
northwest MO and believe this will continue through mid morning.
By mid/late afternoon widely scattered convection will be possible
generally along/north of the MO River. During the overnight period
showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across
northern MO.

As for the terminals expect VFR conditions with only a small risk of
thunderstorms in the terminals. KSTJ has a slightly better chance of
seeing convection tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KEAX 031145
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Today - Tonight:

Scattered convection continues to bubble within a narrow corridor
lying northwest-southeast over northwest MO. While a cold
front has nosed into northern MO it appears isentropic
ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces is the primary
driver, the same mechanism which aided convection over the past 2
days. Due to several outflow boundaries put out by Sunday nights
convection its difficult to locate the cold front his morning.

The short range models weaken the isentropic ascent this morning so
the current convection should dissipate. Going forward think the
cold front will stall over the CWA today with model consensus
dividing the CWA in half. Isolated/widely scattered convection
possible along/north of the boundary during peak afternoon heating.
Pulse type convection with potential for microbursts due to extreme
instability, 0-6km shear of 4000J/kg near the front, and 25-
30kt of 0-6km shear.

Conditions for more organized/widespread convection expected
overnight due to a modest increase in the southwesterly low-level
jet. These winds should transport the higher theta-e air northeast
and over the slowly retreating front. Highest PoPs painted across
the northern 1/3 of the CWA.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

This looks like the most favorable period for more widespread
convection with heavy rain potential as precipitable water values
exceed 2 inches or around 150% of average or 99th percentile. Models
have been clear for the past 3 days that a well defined shortwave
trough will migrate eastward across the Central Rockies and Central
Plains. While there remains some timing and location differences
between the models they all agree that a couple rounds of convection
are likely over the CWA. High temperatures will be a bit problematic
as convective debris and any prolonged bouts of convection will
greatly limit heating. For now will shoot for the high end on the
assumption there will be sufficient heating to achieve seasonal
temperatures.

Thursday - Sunday:

Operational models gradually build the dome of high pressure back
into the central U.S. with surface riding from the Great Lakes
into the Mid MO Valley. This isn`t much different than previous
runs. What is different is the models now modify this airmass
over time resulting in slightly below average to average
temperatures.

Thursday night and Saturday night currently carry the highest
chances for rain which is typical for this time of year. Both
the GFS and ECMWF bring a couple shortwave troughs over the top of
the broad upper high and through IA/MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Small area of convection continues to pulse up and down over
northwest MO and believe this will continue through mid morning.
By mid/late afternoon widely scattered convection will be possible
generally along/north of the MO River. During the overnight period
showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across
northern MO.

As for the terminals expect VFR conditions with only a small risk of
thunderstorms in the terminals. KSTJ has a slightly better chance of
seeing convection tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KEAX 030940
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Today - Tonight:

Scattered convection continues to bubble within a narrow corridor
lying northwest-southeast over northwest MO. While a cold
front has nosed into northern MO it appears isentropic
ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces is the primary
driver, the same mechanism which aided convection over the past 2
days. Due to several outflow boundaries put out by Sunday nights
convection its difficult to locate the cold front his morning.

The short range models weaken the isentropic ascent this morning so
the current convection should dissipate. Going forward think the
cold front will stall over the CWA today with model consensus
dividing the CWA in half. Isolated/widely scattered convection
possible along/north of the boundary during peak afternoon heating.
Pulse type convection with potential for microbursts due to extreme
instability, 0-6km shear of 4000J/kg near the front, and 25-
30kt of 0-6km shear.

Conditions for more organized/widespread convection expected
overnight due to a modest increase in the southwesterly low-level
jet. These winds should transport the higher theta-e air northeast
and over the slowly retreating front. Highest PoPs painted across
the northern 1/3 of the CWA.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

This looks like the most favorable period for more widespread
convection with heavy rain potential as precipitable water values
exceed 2 inches or around 150% of average or 99th percentile. Models
have been clear for the past 3 days that a well defined shortwave
trough will migrate eastward across the Central Rockies and Central
Plains. While there remains some timing and location differences
between the models they all agree that a couple rounds of convection
are likely over the CWA. High temperatures will be a bit problematic
as convective debris and any prolonged bouts of convection will
greatly limit heating. For now will shoot for the high end on the
assumption there will be sufficient heating to achieve seasonal
temperatures.

Thursday - Sunday:

Operational models gradually build the dome of high pressure back
into the central U.S. with surface riding from the Great Lakes
into the Mid MO Valley. This isn`t much different than previous
runs. What is different is the models now modify this airmass
over time resulting in slightly below average to average
temperatures.

Thursday night and Saturday night currently carry the highest
chances for rain which is typical for this time of year. Both
the GFS and ECMWF bring a couple shortwave troughs over the top of
the broad upper high and through IA/MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Convection to the northeast will send a gust front over the KC area
around midnight. This will bring northeasterly winds, which could
gust up to around 20kts. At this point, convection along the boundary
is not likely during the overnight hours. Cloud cover will continue
to dissipate overnight as a cold front slowly works its way over the
area. Will see variable winds during the early morning hours before
transitioning to southeasterly by the afternoon hours. Additional
convection is possible overnight Monday, but should hold off through
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 030940
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Today - Tonight:

Scattered convection continues to bubble within a narrow corridor
lying northwest-southeast over northwest MO. While a cold
front has nosed into northern MO it appears isentropic
ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces is the primary
driver, the same mechanism which aided convection over the past 2
days. Due to several outflow boundaries put out by Sunday nights
convection its difficult to locate the cold front his morning.

The short range models weaken the isentropic ascent this morning so
the current convection should dissipate. Going forward think the
cold front will stall over the CWA today with model consensus
dividing the CWA in half. Isolated/widely scattered convection
possible along/north of the boundary during peak afternoon heating.
Pulse type convection with potential for microbursts due to extreme
instability, 0-6km shear of 4000J/kg near the front, and 25-
30kt of 0-6km shear.

Conditions for more organized/widespread convection expected
overnight due to a modest increase in the southwesterly low-level
jet. These winds should transport the higher theta-e air northeast
and over the slowly retreating front. Highest PoPs painted across
the northern 1/3 of the CWA.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

This looks like the most favorable period for more widespread
convection with heavy rain potential as precipitable water values
exceed 2 inches or around 150% of average or 99th percentile. Models
have been clear for the past 3 days that a well defined shortwave
trough will migrate eastward across the Central Rockies and Central
Plains. While there remains some timing and location differences
between the models they all agree that a couple rounds of convection
are likely over the CWA. High temperatures will be a bit problematic
as convective debris and any prolonged bouts of convection will
greatly limit heating. For now will shoot for the high end on the
assumption there will be sufficient heating to achieve seasonal
temperatures.

Thursday - Sunday:

Operational models gradually build the dome of high pressure back
into the central U.S. with surface riding from the Great Lakes
into the Mid MO Valley. This isn`t much different than previous
runs. What is different is the models now modify this airmass
over time resulting in slightly below average to average
temperatures.

Thursday night and Saturday night currently carry the highest
chances for rain which is typical for this time of year. Both
the GFS and ECMWF bring a couple shortwave troughs over the top of
the broad upper high and through IA/MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Convection to the northeast will send a gust front over the KC area
around midnight. This will bring northeasterly winds, which could
gust up to around 20kts. At this point, convection along the boundary
is not likely during the overnight hours. Cloud cover will continue
to dissipate overnight as a cold front slowly works its way over the
area. Will see variable winds during the early morning hours before
transitioning to southeasterly by the afternoon hours. Additional
convection is possible overnight Monday, but should hold off through
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 030940
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Today - Tonight:

Scattered convection continues to bubble within a narrow corridor
lying northwest-southeast over northwest MO. While a cold
front has nosed into northern MO it appears isentropic
ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces is the primary
driver, the same mechanism which aided convection over the past 2
days. Due to several outflow boundaries put out by Sunday nights
convection its difficult to locate the cold front his morning.

The short range models weaken the isentropic ascent this morning so
the current convection should dissipate. Going forward think the
cold front will stall over the CWA today with model consensus
dividing the CWA in half. Isolated/widely scattered convection
possible along/north of the boundary during peak afternoon heating.
Pulse type convection with potential for microbursts due to extreme
instability, 0-6km shear of 4000J/kg near the front, and 25-
30kt of 0-6km shear.

Conditions for more organized/widespread convection expected
overnight due to a modest increase in the southwesterly low-level
jet. These winds should transport the higher theta-e air northeast
and over the slowly retreating front. Highest PoPs painted across
the northern 1/3 of the CWA.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

This looks like the most favorable period for more widespread
convection with heavy rain potential as precipitable water values
exceed 2 inches or around 150% of average or 99th percentile. Models
have been clear for the past 3 days that a well defined shortwave
trough will migrate eastward across the Central Rockies and Central
Plains. While there remains some timing and location differences
between the models they all agree that a couple rounds of convection
are likely over the CWA. High temperatures will be a bit problematic
as convective debris and any prolonged bouts of convection will
greatly limit heating. For now will shoot for the high end on the
assumption there will be sufficient heating to achieve seasonal
temperatures.

Thursday - Sunday:

Operational models gradually build the dome of high pressure back
into the central U.S. with surface riding from the Great Lakes
into the Mid MO Valley. This isn`t much different than previous
runs. What is different is the models now modify this airmass
over time resulting in slightly below average to average
temperatures.

Thursday night and Saturday night currently carry the highest
chances for rain which is typical for this time of year. Both
the GFS and ECMWF bring a couple shortwave troughs over the top of
the broad upper high and through IA/MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Convection to the northeast will send a gust front over the KC area
around midnight. This will bring northeasterly winds, which could
gust up to around 20kts. At this point, convection along the boundary
is not likely during the overnight hours. Cloud cover will continue
to dissipate overnight as a cold front slowly works its way over the
area. Will see variable winds during the early morning hours before
transitioning to southeasterly by the afternoon hours. Additional
convection is possible overnight Monday, but should hold off through
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 030940
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Today - Tonight:

Scattered convection continues to bubble within a narrow corridor
lying northwest-southeast over northwest MO. While a cold
front has nosed into northern MO it appears isentropic
ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces is the primary
driver, the same mechanism which aided convection over the past 2
days. Due to several outflow boundaries put out by Sunday nights
convection its difficult to locate the cold front his morning.

The short range models weaken the isentropic ascent this morning so
the current convection should dissipate. Going forward think the
cold front will stall over the CWA today with model consensus
dividing the CWA in half. Isolated/widely scattered convection
possible along/north of the boundary during peak afternoon heating.
Pulse type convection with potential for microbursts due to extreme
instability, 0-6km shear of 4000J/kg near the front, and 25-
30kt of 0-6km shear.

Conditions for more organized/widespread convection expected
overnight due to a modest increase in the southwesterly low-level
jet. These winds should transport the higher theta-e air northeast
and over the slowly retreating front. Highest PoPs painted across
the northern 1/3 of the CWA.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

This looks like the most favorable period for more widespread
convection with heavy rain potential as precipitable water values
exceed 2 inches or around 150% of average or 99th percentile. Models
have been clear for the past 3 days that a well defined shortwave
trough will migrate eastward across the Central Rockies and Central
Plains. While there remains some timing and location differences
between the models they all agree that a couple rounds of convection
are likely over the CWA. High temperatures will be a bit problematic
as convective debris and any prolonged bouts of convection will
greatly limit heating. For now will shoot for the high end on the
assumption there will be sufficient heating to achieve seasonal
temperatures.

Thursday - Sunday:

Operational models gradually build the dome of high pressure back
into the central U.S. with surface riding from the Great Lakes
into the Mid MO Valley. This isn`t much different than previous
runs. What is different is the models now modify this airmass
over time resulting in slightly below average to average
temperatures.

Thursday night and Saturday night currently carry the highest
chances for rain which is typical for this time of year. Both
the GFS and ECMWF bring a couple shortwave troughs over the top of
the broad upper high and through IA/MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Convection to the northeast will send a gust front over the KC area
around midnight. This will bring northeasterly winds, which could
gust up to around 20kts. At this point, convection along the boundary
is not likely during the overnight hours. Cloud cover will continue
to dissipate overnight as a cold front slowly works its way over the
area. Will see variable winds during the early morning hours before
transitioning to southeasterly by the afternoon hours. Additional
convection is possible overnight Monday, but should hold off through
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 030359
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front`s slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren`t out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can`t be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Convection to the northeast will send a gust front over the KC area
around midnight. This will bring northeasterly winds, which could
gust up to around 20kts. At this point, convection along the boundary
is not likely during the overnight hours. Cloud cover will continue
to dissipate overnight as a cold front slowly works its way over the
area. Will see variable winds during the early morning hours before
transitioning to southeasterly by the afternoon hours. Additional
convection is possible overnight Monday, but should hold off through
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 022314
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front`s slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren`t out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can`t be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A line of convection along a frontal boundary is approaching the area
from the northwest. These storms should weaken as they move into the
region, but should still hold together long enough to impact the KC
area with gusty winds for a few hours this evening. Otherwise, winds
will become variable by the early morning hours before turning
southerly by the afternoon. Scattered low-level clouds will begin to
develop and persist through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 022314
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front`s slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren`t out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can`t be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A line of convection along a frontal boundary is approaching the area
from the northwest. These storms should weaken as they move into the
region, but should still hold together long enough to impact the KC
area with gusty winds for a few hours this evening. Otherwise, winds
will become variable by the early morning hours before turning
southerly by the afternoon. Scattered low-level clouds will begin to
develop and persist through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 022314
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front`s slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren`t out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can`t be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A line of convection along a frontal boundary is approaching the area
from the northwest. These storms should weaken as they move into the
region, but should still hold together long enough to impact the KC
area with gusty winds for a few hours this evening. Otherwise, winds
will become variable by the early morning hours before turning
southerly by the afternoon. Scattered low-level clouds will begin to
develop and persist through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 021958
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front`s slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren`t out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can`t be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Winds will remain sustained at 10 to 14 kts out of the southwest this
afternoon, then will begin to diminish by late afternoon to early
evening. A cold front will gradually settle southward tonight into
early Monday morning, creating light and variable winds in the KC
area during the morning hours Monday. Little to no precipitation is
expected with the front, but scattered to broken accas is possible.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 021958
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front`s slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren`t out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can`t be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Winds will remain sustained at 10 to 14 kts out of the southwest this
afternoon, then will begin to diminish by late afternoon to early
evening. A cold front will gradually settle southward tonight into
early Monday morning, creating light and variable winds in the KC
area during the morning hours Monday. Little to no precipitation is
expected with the front, but scattered to broken accas is possible.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 021958
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front`s slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren`t out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can`t be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Winds will remain sustained at 10 to 14 kts out of the southwest this
afternoon, then will begin to diminish by late afternoon to early
evening. A cold front will gradually settle southward tonight into
early Monday morning, creating light and variable winds in the KC
area during the morning hours Monday. Little to no precipitation is
expected with the front, but scattered to broken accas is possible.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 021958
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front`s slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren`t out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can`t be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Winds will remain sustained at 10 to 14 kts out of the southwest this
afternoon, then will begin to diminish by late afternoon to early
evening. A cold front will gradually settle southward tonight into
early Monday morning, creating light and variable winds in the KC
area during the morning hours Monday. Little to no precipitation is
expected with the front, but scattered to broken accas is possible.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 021725
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Today - Monday:

Band of scattered convection has developed from east central NE
through southeast MN in response to a h7 vorticity lobe noted in 00z
NAM. This activity precedes a cold front which will eventually move
into the CWA. Other isolated cells precede this band into north
central MO. Short range models have not picked up on this
convection. NAM does weaken this vorticity lobe so expectation is
the accompanying convection will also weaken/dissipate as it moves
into far northern MO.

Later this afternoon scattered convection expected to form along the
approaching cold front from NE through IA. Models show strong
instability with MLCAPES in excess of 4000J/kg along the front
during peak heating. A weak cap, h7 temperatures of +10C to +12C,
will temporarily hold back convection but do expect it to form by
late afternoon. 0-6km shear of 25-30kt barely supports severe
threat. Far northern MO will hold the best chance of seeing an
isolated severe storm with damaging winds the primary concern.
Lacking much forcing think convection will weaken through the
evening hours as it and the cold front drop southward through the
CWA.

As the cold front will linger over the CWA through the day on Monday
will paint slight chance PoPs over most of the region.

Boundary layer winds veering to the southwest today will allow
slightly hotter air to spread into the CWA so max temperatures in
the low-mid 90s likely. Saving grace from oppressive heat/humidity
will be dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the cold front
likely bisecting the CWA on Monday cooler and slightly drier air
will reside across the northern 1/3 of the CWA while hot and humid
conditions will continue over the far southern CWA.

Tuesday - Saturday:

Not much change seen in the extended forecast as the pattern remains
unsettled with Tuesday into Wednesday presenting the best chance for
precipitation as a stronger shortwave tracks east out of the Central
Rockies. Below average temperatures likely through Friday due to
rain chances and extensive cloud cover.

GFS/ECMWF build the upper ridge northward through the High Plains by
Saturday while high pressure builds southwest from the Great Lakes
and dries out the region. A favorable by-product will be cooler
temperatures as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Winds will remain sustained at 10 to 14 kts out of the southwest this
afternoon, then will begin to diminish by late afternoon to early
evening. A cold front will gradually settle southward tonight into
early Monday morning, creating light and variable winds in the KC
area during the morning hours Monday. Little to no precipitation is
expected with the front, but scattered to broken accas is possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 021725
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Today - Monday:

Band of scattered convection has developed from east central NE
through southeast MN in response to a h7 vorticity lobe noted in 00z
NAM. This activity precedes a cold front which will eventually move
into the CWA. Other isolated cells precede this band into north
central MO. Short range models have not picked up on this
convection. NAM does weaken this vorticity lobe so expectation is
the accompanying convection will also weaken/dissipate as it moves
into far northern MO.

Later this afternoon scattered convection expected to form along the
approaching cold front from NE through IA. Models show strong
instability with MLCAPES in excess of 4000J/kg along the front
during peak heating. A weak cap, h7 temperatures of +10C to +12C,
will temporarily hold back convection but do expect it to form by
late afternoon. 0-6km shear of 25-30kt barely supports severe
threat. Far northern MO will hold the best chance of seeing an
isolated severe storm with damaging winds the primary concern.
Lacking much forcing think convection will weaken through the
evening hours as it and the cold front drop southward through the
CWA.

As the cold front will linger over the CWA through the day on Monday
will paint slight chance PoPs over most of the region.

Boundary layer winds veering to the southwest today will allow
slightly hotter air to spread into the CWA so max temperatures in
the low-mid 90s likely. Saving grace from oppressive heat/humidity
will be dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the cold front
likely bisecting the CWA on Monday cooler and slightly drier air
will reside across the northern 1/3 of the CWA while hot and humid
conditions will continue over the far southern CWA.

Tuesday - Saturday:

Not much change seen in the extended forecast as the pattern remains
unsettled with Tuesday into Wednesday presenting the best chance for
precipitation as a stronger shortwave tracks east out of the Central
Rockies. Below average temperatures likely through Friday due to
rain chances and extensive cloud cover.

GFS/ECMWF build the upper ridge northward through the High Plains by
Saturday while high pressure builds southwest from the Great Lakes
and dries out the region. A favorable by-product will be cooler
temperatures as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Winds will remain sustained at 10 to 14 kts out of the southwest this
afternoon, then will begin to diminish by late afternoon to early
evening. A cold front will gradually settle southward tonight into
early Monday morning, creating light and variable winds in the KC
area during the morning hours Monday. Little to no precipitation is
expected with the front, but scattered to broken accas is possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 021725
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Today - Monday:

Band of scattered convection has developed from east central NE
through southeast MN in response to a h7 vorticity lobe noted in 00z
NAM. This activity precedes a cold front which will eventually move
into the CWA. Other isolated cells precede this band into north
central MO. Short range models have not picked up on this
convection. NAM does weaken this vorticity lobe so expectation is
the accompanying convection will also weaken/dissipate as it moves
into far northern MO.

Later this afternoon scattered convection expected to form along the
approaching cold front from NE through IA. Models show strong
instability with MLCAPES in excess of 4000J/kg along the front
during peak heating. A weak cap, h7 temperatures of +10C to +12C,
will temporarily hold back convection but do expect it to form by
late afternoon. 0-6km shear of 25-30kt barely supports severe
threat. Far northern MO will hold the best chance of seeing an
isolated severe storm with damaging winds the primary concern.
Lacking much forcing think convection will weaken through the
evening hours as it and the cold front drop southward through the
CWA.

As the cold front will linger over the CWA through the day on Monday
will paint slight chance PoPs over most of the region.

Boundary layer winds veering to the southwest today will allow
slightly hotter air to spread into the CWA so max temperatures in
the low-mid 90s likely. Saving grace from oppressive heat/humidity
will be dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the cold front
likely bisecting the CWA on Monday cooler and slightly drier air
will reside across the northern 1/3 of the CWA while hot and humid
conditions will continue over the far southern CWA.

Tuesday - Saturday:

Not much change seen in the extended forecast as the pattern remains
unsettled with Tuesday into Wednesday presenting the best chance for
precipitation as a stronger shortwave tracks east out of the Central
Rockies. Below average temperatures likely through Friday due to
rain chances and extensive cloud cover.

GFS/ECMWF build the upper ridge northward through the High Plains by
Saturday while high pressure builds southwest from the Great Lakes
and dries out the region. A favorable by-product will be cooler
temperatures as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Winds will remain sustained at 10 to 14 kts out of the southwest this
afternoon, then will begin to diminish by late afternoon to early
evening. A cold front will gradually settle southward tonight into
early Monday morning, creating light and variable winds in the KC
area during the morning hours Monday. Little to no precipitation is
expected with the front, but scattered to broken accas is possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 021052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Today - Monday:

Band of scattered convection has developed from east central NE
through southeast MN in response to a h7 vorticity lobe noted in 00z
NAM. This activity precedes a cold front which will eventually move
into the CWA. Other isolated cells precede this band into north
central MO. Short range models have not picked up on this
convection. NAM does weaken this vorticity lobe so expectation is
the accompanying convection will also weaken/dissipate as it moves
into far northern MO.

Later this afternoon scattered convection expected to form along the
approaching cold front from NE through IA. Models show strong
instability with MLCAPES in excess of 4000J/kg along the front
during peak heating. A weak cap, h7 temperatures of +10C to +12C,
will temporarily hold back convection but do expect it to form by
late afternoon. 0-6km shear of 25-30kt barely supports severe
threat. Far northern MO will hold the best chance of seeing an
isolated severe storm with damaging winds the primary concern.
Lacking much forcing think convection will weaken through the
evening hours as it and the cold front drop southward through the
CWA.

As the cold front will linger over the CWA through the day on Monday
will paint slight chance PoPs over most of the region.

Boundary layer winds veering to the southwest today will allow
slightly hotter air to spread into the CWA so max temperatures in
the low-mid 90s likely. Saving grace from oppressive heat/humidity
will be dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the cold front
likely bisecting the CWA on Monday cooler and slightly drier air
will reside across the northern 1/3 of the CWA while hot and humid
conditions will continue over the far southern CWA.

Tuesday - Saturday:

Not much change seen in the extended forecast as the pattern remains
unsettled with Tuesday into Wednesday presenting the best chance for
precipitation as a stronger shortwave tracks east out of the Central
Rockies. Below average temperatures likely through Friday due to
rain chances and extensive cloud cover.

GFS/ECMWF build the upper ridge northward through the High Plains by
Saturday while high pressure builds southwest from the Great Lakes
and dries out the region. A favorable by-product will be cooler
temperatures as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Isolated convection will affect far northeast MO early this morning
followed by a dry period through late afternoon. Scattered convection
expected to form along a cold front as it slides south southeast
into northern MO this evening. Precipitation will likely be weakening
as it moves into northern MO.

For all practical purposes the terminals will remain dry. KSTj has a
small chance of seeing some decaying showers after midnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KEAX 021052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Today - Monday:

Band of scattered convection has developed from east central NE
through southeast MN in response to a h7 vorticity lobe noted in 00z
NAM. This activity precedes a cold front which will eventually move
into the CWA. Other isolated cells precede this band into north
central MO. Short range models have not picked up on this
convection. NAM does weaken this vorticity lobe so expectation is
the accompanying convection will also weaken/dissipate as it moves
into far northern MO.

Later this afternoon scattered convection expected to form along the
approaching cold front from NE through IA. Models show strong
instability with MLCAPES in excess of 4000J/kg along the front
during peak heating. A weak cap, h7 temperatures of +10C to +12C,
will temporarily hold back convection but do expect it to form by
late afternoon. 0-6km shear of 25-30kt barely supports severe
threat. Far northern MO will hold the best chance of seeing an
isolated severe storm with damaging winds the primary concern.
Lacking much forcing think convection will weaken through the
evening hours as it and the cold front drop southward through the
CWA.

As the cold front will linger over the CWA through the day on Monday
will paint slight chance PoPs over most of the region.

Boundary layer winds veering to the southwest today will allow
slightly hotter air to spread into the CWA so max temperatures in
the low-mid 90s likely. Saving grace from oppressive heat/humidity
will be dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the cold front
likely bisecting the CWA on Monday cooler and slightly drier air
will reside across the northern 1/3 of the CWA while hot and humid
conditions will continue over the far southern CWA.

Tuesday - Saturday:

Not much change seen in the extended forecast as the pattern remains
unsettled with Tuesday into Wednesday presenting the best chance for
precipitation as a stronger shortwave tracks east out of the Central
Rockies. Below average temperatures likely through Friday due to
rain chances and extensive cloud cover.

GFS/ECMWF build the upper ridge northward through the High Plains by
Saturday while high pressure builds southwest from the Great Lakes
and dries out the region. A favorable by-product will be cooler
temperatures as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Isolated convection will affect far northeast MO early this morning
followed by a dry period through late afternoon. Scattered convection
expected to form along a cold front as it slides south southeast
into northern MO this evening. Precipitation will likely be weakening
as it moves into northern MO.

For all practical purposes the terminals will remain dry. KSTj has a
small chance of seeing some decaying showers after midnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KEAX 020917
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Today - Monday:

Band of scattered convection has developed from east central NE
through southeast MN in response to a h7 vorticity lobe noted in 00z
NAM. This activity precedes a cold front which will eventually move
into the CWA. Other isolated cells precede this band into north
central MO. Short range models have not picked up on this
convection. NAM does weaken this vorticity lobe so expectation is
the accompanying convection will also weaken/dissipate as it moves
into far northern MO.

Later this afternoon scattered convection expected to form along the
approaching cold front from NE through IA. Models show strong
instability with MLCAPES in excess of 4000J/kg along the front
during peak heating. A weak cap, h7 temperatures of +10C to +12C,
will temporarily hold back convection but do expect it to form by
late afternoon. 0-6km shear of 25-30kt barely supports severe
threat. Far northern MO will hold the best chance of seeing an
isolated severe storm with damaging winds the primary concern.
Lacking much forcing think convection will weaken through the
evening hours as it and the cold front drop southward through the
CWA.

As the cold front will linger over the CWA through the day on Monday
will paint slight chance PoPs over most of the region.

Boundary layer winds veering to the southwest today will allow
slightly hotter air to spread into the CWA so max temperatures in
the low-mid 90s likely. Saving grace from oppressive heat/humidity
will be dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the cold front
likely bisecting the CWA on Monday cooler and slightly drier air
will reside across the northern 1/3 of the CWA while hot and humid
conditions will continue over the far southern CWA.

Tuesday - Saturday:

Not much change seen in the extended forecast as the pattern remains
unsettled with Tuesday into Wednesday presenting the best chance for
precipitation as a stronger shortwave tracks east out of the Central
Rockies. Below average temperatures likely through Friday due to
rain chances and extensive cloud cover.

GFS/ECMWF build the upper ridge northward through the High Plains by
Saturday while high pressure builds southwest from the Great Lakes
and dries out the region. A favorable by-product will be cooler
temperatures as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period with
southerly winds becoming southwesterly and increasing slightly by
Sunday afternoon. A frontal boundary over Nebraska will work its way
southeastward Sunday afternoon and could trigger some evening
thunderstorms for KSTJ. As of now, current thinking is that this
activity will remain north of the area at least through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 020917
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Today - Monday:

Band of scattered convection has developed from east central NE
through southeast MN in response to a h7 vorticity lobe noted in 00z
NAM. This activity precedes a cold front which will eventually move
into the CWA. Other isolated cells precede this band into north
central MO. Short range models have not picked up on this
convection. NAM does weaken this vorticity lobe so expectation is
the accompanying convection will also weaken/dissipate as it moves
into far northern MO.

Later this afternoon scattered convection expected to form along the
approaching cold front from NE through IA. Models show strong
instability with MLCAPES in excess of 4000J/kg along the front
during peak heating. A weak cap, h7 temperatures of +10C to +12C,
will temporarily hold back convection but do expect it to form by
late afternoon. 0-6km shear of 25-30kt barely supports severe
threat. Far northern MO will hold the best chance of seeing an
isolated severe storm with damaging winds the primary concern.
Lacking much forcing think convection will weaken through the
evening hours as it and the cold front drop southward through the
CWA.

As the cold front will linger over the CWA through the day on Monday
will paint slight chance PoPs over most of the region.

Boundary layer winds veering to the southwest today will allow
slightly hotter air to spread into the CWA so max temperatures in
the low-mid 90s likely. Saving grace from oppressive heat/humidity
will be dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the cold front
likely bisecting the CWA on Monday cooler and slightly drier air
will reside across the northern 1/3 of the CWA while hot and humid
conditions will continue over the far southern CWA.

Tuesday - Saturday:

Not much change seen in the extended forecast as the pattern remains
unsettled with Tuesday into Wednesday presenting the best chance for
precipitation as a stronger shortwave tracks east out of the Central
Rockies. Below average temperatures likely through Friday due to
rain chances and extensive cloud cover.

GFS/ECMWF build the upper ridge northward through the High Plains by
Saturday while high pressure builds southwest from the Great Lakes
and dries out the region. A favorable by-product will be cooler
temperatures as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period with
southerly winds becoming southwesterly and increasing slightly by
Sunday afternoon. A frontal boundary over Nebraska will work its way
southeastward Sunday afternoon and could trigger some evening
thunderstorms for KSTJ. As of now, current thinking is that this
activity will remain north of the area at least through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 020452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in an area of
generally uncapped, 3000-5000 J/kg CAPE and broad isentropic lift in
the 310-315 K surface. No real upper-level forcing is discernible
and multiple outflow boundaries have developed/settled across the
region, so development will be scattered and somewhat random
throughout the majority of the area over the next several hours. The
environment is quite supportive of downburst winds, and have seen up
to 50 mph winds with the strongest cells as they collapse, as well
as small hail. These hazards will continue to exist due to extreme
CAPE and downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Shear is marginal at
best, supporting pulsy storms and motion driven mostly by cold pool
dynamics. In addition to the isolated storms, excessive heat will
also be a concern this afternoon as dewpoints have risen into the
lower to even mid 70s, combining with temperatures in the 80s to low
90s and bringing heat indices into the upper 90s to lower 100s area-
wide.

As instability begins to diminish this evening, storms should
dissipate gradually throughout the forecast area. Additional storms
may develop again tonight into early Sunday morning across eastern
Nebraska where a shortwave trough will pass over the persistent weak
baroclinic zone, but should develop far enough north and travel with
enough of an eastward fetch to remain mainly north of the CWA. If
storms throw out an outflow boundary or begin to drive southward due
to their cold pool they may edge into the CWA after midnight, so
have kept the slight chance PoPs in our north tonight. The best
probability for this to occur will be in northeast MO after 09z, so
have kept slightly higher PoPs in this area toward early morning.

On Sunday afternoon and evening, the weak frontal boundary that has
persisted over eastern Nebraska will finally begin to drift
southward, possibly sparking a few showers and storms as it sinks
through the forecast area. Have kept some lower-end chances of
storms from the afternoon through the overnight hours; however, the
better dynamics still look east of the region and therefore expect
storms to be isolated if they develop. Temperatures and instability
will be quite high south of the stalled boundary during the day, and
moisture pooling along/ahead of the boundary will push heat indices
to near 100 degrees again in areas south of the front.

The boundary will stall in the vicinity of I-70 on Monday, lingering
in the area and providing continuous thunderstorm chances through at
least Tuesday. A shortwave trough will slide through the region
Tuesday or Tuesday night and enhance precipitation chances, and will
also lay out another frontal boundary that will remain through the
end of the work week keep thunderstorm chances between 30-50%
through the rest of the period. Temperatures will be slightly lower
due to cloud cover and periods of precipitation, but will likely
still be quite muggy on the south side of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period with
southerly winds becoming southwesterly and increasing slightly by
Sunday afternoon. A frontal boundary over Nebraska will work its way
southeastward Sunday afternoon and could trigger some evening
thunderstorms for KSTJ. As of now, current thinking is that this
activity will remain north of the area at least through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 012331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in an area of
generally uncapped, 3000-5000 J/kg CAPE and broad isentropic lift in
the 310-315 K surface. No real upper-level forcing is discernible
and multiple outflow boundaries have developed/settled across the
region, so development will be scattered and somewhat random
throughout the majority of the area over the next several hours. The
environment is quite supportive of downburst winds, and have seen up
to 50 mph winds with the strongest cells as they collapse, as well
as small hail. These hazards will continue to exist due to extreme
CAPE and downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Shear is marginal at
best, supporting pulsy storms and motion driven mostly by cold pool
dynamics. In addition to the isolated storms, excessive heat will
also be a concern this afternoon as dewpoints have risen into the
lower to even mid 70s, combining with temperatures in the 80s to low
90s and bringing heat indices into the upper 90s to lower 100s area-
wide.

As instability begins to diminish this evening, storms should
dissipate gradually throughout the forecast area. Additional storms
may develop again tonight into early Sunday morning across eastern
Nebraska where a shortwave trough will pass over the persistent weak
baroclinic zone, but should develop far enough north and travel with
enough of an eastward fetch to remain mainly north of the CWA. If
storms throw out an outflow boundary or begin to drive southward due
to their cold pool they may edge into the CWA after midnight, so
have kept the slight chance PoPs in our north tonight. The best
probability for this to occur will be in northeast MO after 09z, so
have kept slightly higher PoPs in this area toward early morning.

On Sunday afternoon and evening, the weak frontal boundary that has
persisted over eastern Nebraska will finally begin to drift
southward, possibly sparking a few showers and storms as it sinks
through the forecast area. Have kept some lower-end chances of
storms from the afternoon through the overnight hours; however, the
better dynamics still look east of the region and therefore expect
storms to be isolated if they develop. Temperatures and instability
will be quite high south of the stalled boundary during the day, and
moisture pooling along/ahead of the boundary will push heat indices
to near 100 degrees again in areas south of the front.

The boundary will stall in the vicinity of I-70 on Monday, lingering
in the area and providing continuous thunderstorm chances through at
least Tuesday. A shortwave trough will slide through the region
Tuesday or Tuesday night and enhance precipitation chances, and will
also lay out another frontal boundary that will remain through the
end of the work week keep thunderstorm chances between 30-50%
through the rest of the period. Temperatures will be slightly lower
due to cloud cover and periods of precipitation, but will likely
still be quite muggy on the south side of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Convection to the east
should dissipate as the evening progresses. The associated outflow
boundary with these storms will turn winds to the east temporarily,
before southwesterly winds resume through the remainder of the
period. Overnight convection is possible near KSTJ, but the majority
of this activity should remain to the north of the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 012331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in an area of
generally uncapped, 3000-5000 J/kg CAPE and broad isentropic lift in
the 310-315 K surface. No real upper-level forcing is discernible
and multiple outflow boundaries have developed/settled across the
region, so development will be scattered and somewhat random
throughout the majority of the area over the next several hours. The
environment is quite supportive of downburst winds, and have seen up
to 50 mph winds with the strongest cells as they collapse, as well
as small hail. These hazards will continue to exist due to extreme
CAPE and downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Shear is marginal at
best, supporting pulsy storms and motion driven mostly by cold pool
dynamics. In addition to the isolated storms, excessive heat will
also be a concern this afternoon as dewpoints have risen into the
lower to even mid 70s, combining with temperatures in the 80s to low
90s and bringing heat indices into the upper 90s to lower 100s area-
wide.

As instability begins to diminish this evening, storms should
dissipate gradually throughout the forecast area. Additional storms
may develop again tonight into early Sunday morning across eastern
Nebraska where a shortwave trough will pass over the persistent weak
baroclinic zone, but should develop far enough north and travel with
enough of an eastward fetch to remain mainly north of the CWA. If
storms throw out an outflow boundary or begin to drive southward due
to their cold pool they may edge into the CWA after midnight, so
have kept the slight chance PoPs in our north tonight. The best
probability for this to occur will be in northeast MO after 09z, so
have kept slightly higher PoPs in this area toward early morning.

On Sunday afternoon and evening, the weak frontal boundary that has
persisted over eastern Nebraska will finally begin to drift
southward, possibly sparking a few showers and storms as it sinks
through the forecast area. Have kept some lower-end chances of
storms from the afternoon through the overnight hours; however, the
better dynamics still look east of the region and therefore expect
storms to be isolated if they develop. Temperatures and instability
will be quite high south of the stalled boundary during the day, and
moisture pooling along/ahead of the boundary will push heat indices
to near 100 degrees again in areas south of the front.

The boundary will stall in the vicinity of I-70 on Monday, lingering
in the area and providing continuous thunderstorm chances through at
least Tuesday. A shortwave trough will slide through the region
Tuesday or Tuesday night and enhance precipitation chances, and will
also lay out another frontal boundary that will remain through the
end of the work week keep thunderstorm chances between 30-50%
through the rest of the period. Temperatures will be slightly lower
due to cloud cover and periods of precipitation, but will likely
still be quite muggy on the south side of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Convection to the east
should dissipate as the evening progresses. The associated outflow
boundary with these storms will turn winds to the east temporarily,
before southwesterly winds resume through the remainder of the
period. Overnight convection is possible near KSTJ, but the majority
of this activity should remain to the north of the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh





000
FXUS63 KEAX 012052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in an area of
generally uncapped, 3000-5000 J/kg CAPE and broad isentropic lift in
the 310-315 K surface. No real upper-level forcing is discernible
and multiple outflow boundaries have developed/settled across the
region, so development will be scattered and somewhat random
throughout the majority of the area over the next several hours. The
environment is quite supportive of downburst winds, and have seen up
to 50 mph winds with the strongest cells as they collapse, as well
as small hail. These hazards will continue to exist due to extreme
CAPE and downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Shear is marginal at
best, supporting pulsy storms and motion driven mostly by cold pool
dynamics. In addition to the isolated storms, excessive heat will
also be a concern this afternoon as dewpoints have risen into the
lower to even mid 70s, combining with temperatures in the 80s to low
90s and bringing heat indices into the upper 90s to lower 100s area-
wide.

As instability begins to diminish this evening, storms should
dissipate gradually throughout the forecast area. Additional storms
may develop again tonight into early Sunday morning across eastern
Nebraska where a shortwave trough will pass over the persistent weak
baroclinic zone, but should develop far enough north and travel with
enough of an eastward fetch to remain mainly north of the CWA. If
storms throw out an outflow boundary or begin to drive southward due
to their cold pool they may edge into the CWA after midnight, so
have kept the slight chance PoPs in our north tonight. The best
probability for this to occur will be in northeast MO after 09z, so
have kept slightly higher PoPs in this area toward early morning.

On Sunday afternoon and evening, the weak frontal boundary that has
persisted over eastern Nebraska will finally begin to drift
southward, possibly sparking a few showers and storms as it sinks
through the forecast area. Have kept some lower-end chances of
storms from the afternoon through the overnight hours; however, the
better dynamics still look east of the region and therefore expect
storms to be isolated if they develop. Temperatures and instability
will be quite high south of the stalled boundary during the day, and
moisture pooling along/ahead of the boundary will push heat indices
to near 100 degrees again in areas south of the front.

The boundary will stall in the vicinity of I-70 on Monday, lingering
in the area and providing continuous thunderstorm chances through at
least Tuesday. A shortwave trough will slide through the region
Tuesday or Tuesday night and enhance precipitation chances, and will
also lay out another frontal boundary that will remain through the
end of the work week keep thunderstorm chances between 30-50%
through the rest of the period. Temperatures will be slightly lower
due to cloud cover and periods of precipitation, but will likely
still be quite muggy on the south side of the front.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Scattered to broken cumulus has blossomed in the vicinity of several
outflow boundaries across eastern KS and through central MO, possibly
setting the stage for isolated thunderstorms to continue through the
afternoon and early evening hours. As a result, have added a group of
VCTS at all TAF sites for this afternoon through 01z. Except in these
isolated storms, primarily VFR conditions and light winds are
expected. Any additional storms that develop tonight should stay well
north of TAF sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 012052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in an area of
generally uncapped, 3000-5000 J/kg CAPE and broad isentropic lift in
the 310-315 K surface. No real upper-level forcing is discernible
and multiple outflow boundaries have developed/settled across the
region, so development will be scattered and somewhat random
throughout the majority of the area over the next several hours. The
environment is quite supportive of downburst winds, and have seen up
to 50 mph winds with the strongest cells as they collapse, as well
as small hail. These hazards will continue to exist due to extreme
CAPE and downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Shear is marginal at
best, supporting pulsy storms and motion driven mostly by cold pool
dynamics. In addition to the isolated storms, excessive heat will
also be a concern this afternoon as dewpoints have risen into the
lower to even mid 70s, combining with temperatures in the 80s to low
90s and bringing heat indices into the upper 90s to lower 100s area-
wide.

As instability begins to diminish this evening, storms should
dissipate gradually throughout the forecast area. Additional storms
may develop again tonight into early Sunday morning across eastern
Nebraska where a shortwave trough will pass over the persistent weak
baroclinic zone, but should develop far enough north and travel with
enough of an eastward fetch to remain mainly north of the CWA. If
storms throw out an outflow boundary or begin to drive southward due
to their cold pool they may edge into the CWA after midnight, so
have kept the slight chance PoPs in our north tonight. The best
probability for this to occur will be in northeast MO after 09z, so
have kept slightly higher PoPs in this area toward early morning.

On Sunday afternoon and evening, the weak frontal boundary that has
persisted over eastern Nebraska will finally begin to drift
southward, possibly sparking a few showers and storms as it sinks
through the forecast area. Have kept some lower-end chances of
storms from the afternoon through the overnight hours; however, the
better dynamics still look east of the region and therefore expect
storms to be isolated if they develop. Temperatures and instability
will be quite high south of the stalled boundary during the day, and
moisture pooling along/ahead of the boundary will push heat indices
to near 100 degrees again in areas south of the front.

The boundary will stall in the vicinity of I-70 on Monday, lingering
in the area and providing continuous thunderstorm chances through at
least Tuesday. A shortwave trough will slide through the region
Tuesday or Tuesday night and enhance precipitation chances, and will
also lay out another frontal boundary that will remain through the
end of the work week keep thunderstorm chances between 30-50%
through the rest of the period. Temperatures will be slightly lower
due to cloud cover and periods of precipitation, but will likely
still be quite muggy on the south side of the front.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Scattered to broken cumulus has blossomed in the vicinity of several
outflow boundaries across eastern KS and through central MO, possibly
setting the stage for isolated thunderstorms to continue through the
afternoon and early evening hours. As a result, have added a group of
VCTS at all TAF sites for this afternoon through 01z. Except in these
isolated storms, primarily VFR conditions and light winds are
expected. Any additional storms that develop tonight should stay well
north of TAF sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 011738
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Today - Sunday:

Good ole northwest flow. Can`t let your guard down even when there
are no discernible fronts nearby as weak/nebulous embedded
perturbations can and do wreak havoc with dry forecasts. Early this
morning weak isentropic ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces appear
to be the main drivers for convection today through Sunday. Friday
night activity which formed over eastern NE via this process
dissipated as it moved into northern MO. However, satellite and
regional radar composites show a narrow band of ac/scattered
convection has formed from southwest SD through central NE. This
activity could persist through the morning hours and possibly slide
into northwest MO by late morning/early afternoon. Short range and
operational models not really picking up on this but feel enough of
a concern to warrant slight chance PoPs for this afternoon.

Later this evening more robust convection is expected to form
further north in response to a stronger shortwave and development of
the low-level jet. While the initial activity will likely form north
of the CWA the mid level steering flow and cold pool outflow could
easily send convection spreading into north central and northeast MO
later this evening. The severe threat will depend on the arrival
time as the instability will be decreasing by early evening. The 0-
6km shear averaging 30kt through late evening will be
sufficient to support at least an isolated severe threat.

A shortwave trough dropping southeast from central Canada through
the western Great Lakes on Sunday will push a cold front southward
and towards northern MO. Low level convergence of pooled moisture
ahead of the front plus moderate instability should be sufficient to
support at least widely scattered convection along the front and
enough to justify PoPs over northern MO Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
typical mid summer heat and humidity should result in heat indices
from 95-100.

Sunday night - Monday:

The cold front will likely stall over the CWA Sunday night before
lifting back north on Monday. Not overly excited by the lift and
upper support so PoPs are limited to mainly slight chance variety.
One more uncomfortable day before we see an extended reprieve from
the heat.

Tuesday - Friday:

An unsettled period with several chances for convection as well as
below average temperatures.  Operational models are in pretty good
agreement with a notable shortwave trough rolling eastward from the
intermountain region through the Central Rockies and Central Plains
and in effect flattening the upper high. Some differences in timing
and placement of the shortwave, enough to keep PoPs in the chance
category Tuesday through Wednesday.

The upper ridge temporarily reasserts itself by mid week with
heights building northward through the Front Range before another
shortwave tops the ridge axis and slides southeast towards the CWA.
In turn this will generate another round of convection. Being this
far out and not overly confident on timing it`s best to play this
with 30-40% PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Scattered to broken cumulus has blossomed in the vicinity of several
outflow boundaries across eastern KS and through central MO, possibly
setting the stage for isolated thunderstorms to continue through the
afternoon and early evening hours. As a result, have added a group of
VCTS at all TAF sites for this afternoon through 01z. Except in these
isolated storms, primarily VFR conditions and light winds are
expected. Any additional storms that develop tonight should stay well
north of TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 011738
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Today - Sunday:

Good ole northwest flow. Can`t let your guard down even when there
are no discernible fronts nearby as weak/nebulous embedded
perturbations can and do wreak havoc with dry forecasts. Early this
morning weak isentropic ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces appear
to be the main drivers for convection today through Sunday. Friday
night activity which formed over eastern NE via this process
dissipated as it moved into northern MO. However, satellite and
regional radar composites show a narrow band of ac/scattered
convection has formed from southwest SD through central NE. This
activity could persist through the morning hours and possibly slide
into northwest MO by late morning/early afternoon. Short range and
operational models not really picking up on this but feel enough of
a concern to warrant slight chance PoPs for this afternoon.

Later this evening more robust convection is expected to form
further north in response to a stronger shortwave and development of
the low-level jet. While the initial activity will likely form north
of the CWA the mid level steering flow and cold pool outflow could
easily send convection spreading into north central and northeast MO
later this evening. The severe threat will depend on the arrival
time as the instability will be decreasing by early evening. The 0-
6km shear averaging 30kt through late evening will be
sufficient to support at least an isolated severe threat.

A shortwave trough dropping southeast from central Canada through
the western Great Lakes on Sunday will push a cold front southward
and towards northern MO. Low level convergence of pooled moisture
ahead of the front plus moderate instability should be sufficient to
support at least widely scattered convection along the front and
enough to justify PoPs over northern MO Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
typical mid summer heat and humidity should result in heat indices
from 95-100.

Sunday night - Monday:

The cold front will likely stall over the CWA Sunday night before
lifting back north on Monday. Not overly excited by the lift and
upper support so PoPs are limited to mainly slight chance variety.
One more uncomfortable day before we see an extended reprieve from
the heat.

Tuesday - Friday:

An unsettled period with several chances for convection as well as
below average temperatures.  Operational models are in pretty good
agreement with a notable shortwave trough rolling eastward from the
intermountain region through the Central Rockies and Central Plains
and in effect flattening the upper high. Some differences in timing
and placement of the shortwave, enough to keep PoPs in the chance
category Tuesday through Wednesday.

The upper ridge temporarily reasserts itself by mid week with
heights building northward through the Front Range before another
shortwave tops the ridge axis and slides southeast towards the CWA.
In turn this will generate another round of convection. Being this
far out and not overly confident on timing it`s best to play this
with 30-40% PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Scattered to broken cumulus has blossomed in the vicinity of several
outflow boundaries across eastern KS and through central MO, possibly
setting the stage for isolated thunderstorms to continue through the
afternoon and early evening hours. As a result, have added a group of
VCTS at all TAF sites for this afternoon through 01z. Except in these
isolated storms, primarily VFR conditions and light winds are
expected. Any additional storms that develop tonight should stay well
north of TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin





000
FXUS63 KEAX 011132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Today - Sunday:

Good ole northwest flow. Can`t let your guard down even when there
are no discernible fronts nearby as weak/nebulous embedded
perturbations can and do wreak havoc with dry forecasts. Early this
morning weak isentropic ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces appear
to be the main drivers for convection today through Sunday. Friday
night activity which formed over eastern NE via this process
dissipated as it moved into northern MO. However, satellite and
regional radar composites show a narrow band of ac/scattered
convection has formed from southwest SD through central NE. This
activity could persist through the morning hours and possibly slide
into northwest MO by late morning/early afternoon. Short range and
operational models not really picking up on this but feel enough of
a concern to warrant slight chance PoPs for this afternoon.

Later this evening more robust convection is expected to form
further north in response to a stronger shortwave and development of
the low-level jet. While the initial activity will likely form north
of the CWA the mid level steering flow and cold pool outflow could
easily send convection spreading into north central and northeast MO
later this evening. The severe threat will depend on the arrival
time as the instability will be decreasing by early evening. The 0-
6km shear averaging 30kt through late evening will be
sufficient to support at least an isolated severe threat.

A shortwave trough dropping southeast from central Canada through
the western Great Lakes on Sunday will push a cold front southward
and towards northern MO. Low level convergence of pooled moisture
ahead of the front plus moderate instability should be sufficient to
support at least widely scattered convection along the front and
enough to justify PoPs over northern MO Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
typical mid summer heat and humidity should result in heat indices
from 95-100.

Sunday night - Monday:

The cold front will likely stall over the CWA Sunday night before
lifting back north on Monday. Not overly excited by the lift and
upper support so PoPs are limited to mainly slight chance variety.
One more uncomfortable day before we see an extended reprieve from
the heat.

Tuesday - Friday:

An unsettled period with several chances for convection as well as
below average temperatures.  Operational models are in pretty good
agreement with a notable shortwave trough rolling eastward from the
intermountain region through the Central Rockies and Central Plains
and in effect flattening the upper high. Some differences in timing
and placement of the shortwave, enough to keep PoPs in the chance
category Tuesday through Wednesday.

The upper ridge temporarily reasserts itself by mid week with
heights building northward through the Front Range before another
shortwave tops the ridge axis and slides southeast towards the CWA.
In turn this will generate another round of convection. Being this
far out and not overly confident on timing it`s best to play this
with 30-40% PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR conditions will persist with light south to southwest winds.
Narrow band of convection over eastern NE expected to slide south and
remain west of the MO/KS border with high level debris cloudiness
spreading across northwest and west central MO. Later this evening
through the overnight hours there will be a chance for showers and
storms over parts of north central and northeast MO.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KEAX 010918
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
418 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Today - Sunday:

Good ole northwest flow. Can`t let your guard down even when there
are no discernible fronts nearby as weak/nebulous embedded
perturbations can and do wreak havoc with dry forecasts. Early this
morning weak isentropic ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces appear
to be the main drivers for convection today through Sunday. Friday
night activity which formed over eastern NE via this process
dissipated as it moved into northern MO. However, satellite and
regional radar composites show a narrow band of ac/scattered
convection has formed from southwest SD through central NE. This
activity could persist through the morning hours and possibly slide
into northwest MO by late morning/early afternoon. Short range and
operational models not really picking up on this but feel enough of
a concern to warrant slight chance PoPs for this afternoon.

Later this evening more robust convection is expected to form
further north in response to a stronger shortwave and development of
the low-level jet. While the initial activity will likely form north
of the CWA the mid level steering flow and cold pool outflow could
easily send convection spreading into north central and northeast MO
later this evening. The severe threat will depend on the arrival
time as the instability will be decreasing by early evening. The 0-
6km shear averaging 30kt through late evening will be
sufficient to support at least an isolated severe threat.

A shortwave trough dropping southeast from central Canada through
the western Great Lakes on Sunday will push a cold front southward
and towards northern MO. Low level convergence of pooled moisture
ahead of the front plus moderate instability should be sufficient to
support at least widely scattered convection along the front and
enough to justify PoPs over northern MO Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
typical mid summer heat and humidity should result in heat indices
from 95-100.

Sunday night - Monday:

The cold front will likely stall over the CWA Sunday night before
lifting back north on Monday. Not overly excited by the lift and
upper support so PoPs are limited to mainly slight chance variety.
One more uncomfortable day before we see an extended reprieve from
the heat.

Tuesday - Friday:

An unsettled period with several chances for convection as well as
below average temperatures.  Operational models are in pretty good
agreement with a notable shortwave trough rolling eastward from the
intermountain region through the Central Rockies and Central Plains
and in effect flattening the upper high. Some differences in timing
and placement of the shortwave, enough to keep PoPs in the chance
category Tuesday through Wednesday.

The upper ridge temporarily reasserts itself by mid week with
heights building northward through the Front Range before another
shortwave tops the ridge axis and slides southeast towards the CWA.
In turn this will generate another round of convection. Being this
far out and not overly confident on timing it`s best to play this
with 30-40% PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

Aside from some fog at STJ around sunrise, VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals. Light winds will persist through the
forecast but may become southerly with time. There may also be enough
lower level moisture to get some afternoon cumulus to form with bases
generally above 5K ft.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 010918
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
418 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Today - Sunday:

Good ole northwest flow. Can`t let your guard down even when there
are no discernible fronts nearby as weak/nebulous embedded
perturbations can and do wreak havoc with dry forecasts. Early this
morning weak isentropic ascent on the 305K and 310K surfaces appear
to be the main drivers for convection today through Sunday. Friday
night activity which formed over eastern NE via this process
dissipated as it moved into northern MO. However, satellite and
regional radar composites show a narrow band of ac/scattered
convection has formed from southwest SD through central NE. This
activity could persist through the morning hours and possibly slide
into northwest MO by late morning/early afternoon. Short range and
operational models not really picking up on this but feel enough of
a concern to warrant slight chance PoPs for this afternoon.

Later this evening more robust convection is expected to form
further north in response to a stronger shortwave and development of
the low-level jet. While the initial activity will likely form north
of the CWA the mid level steering flow and cold pool outflow could
easily send convection spreading into north central and northeast MO
later this evening. The severe threat will depend on the arrival
time as the instability will be decreasing by early evening. The 0-
6km shear averaging 30kt through late evening will be
sufficient to support at least an isolated severe threat.

A shortwave trough dropping southeast from central Canada through
the western Great Lakes on Sunday will push a cold front southward
and towards northern MO. Low level convergence of pooled moisture
ahead of the front plus moderate instability should be sufficient to
support at least widely scattered convection along the front and
enough to justify PoPs over northern MO Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
typical mid summer heat and humidity should result in heat indices
from 95-100.

Sunday night - Monday:

The cold front will likely stall over the CWA Sunday night before
lifting back north on Monday. Not overly excited by the lift and
upper support so PoPs are limited to mainly slight chance variety.
One more uncomfortable day before we see an extended reprieve from
the heat.

Tuesday - Friday:

An unsettled period with several chances for convection as well as
below average temperatures.  Operational models are in pretty good
agreement with a notable shortwave trough rolling eastward from the
intermountain region through the Central Rockies and Central Plains
and in effect flattening the upper high. Some differences in timing
and placement of the shortwave, enough to keep PoPs in the chance
category Tuesday through Wednesday.

The upper ridge temporarily reasserts itself by mid week with
heights building northward through the Front Range before another
shortwave tops the ridge axis and slides southeast towards the CWA.
In turn this will generate another round of convection. Being this
far out and not overly confident on timing it`s best to play this
with 30-40% PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

Aside from some fog at STJ around sunrise, VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals. Light winds will persist through the
forecast but may become southerly with time. There may also be enough
lower level moisture to get some afternoon cumulus to form with bases
generally above 5K ft.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB





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