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000
FXUS66 KEKA 232243
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
343 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SAGGING COLD FRONT IS STALLING OVER TRINITY AND
NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. TONIGHT THIS WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS BROUGHT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO
COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM OVER 5 INCHES ON COOSKIE
MOUNTAIN IN THE KING RANGE TO AN INCH AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND IN
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. SOUTHERN MENDOCINO HAS BEEN THE LOWEST
TODAY WITH UKIAH RECEIVING LESS THAN A THENTH OF AN INCH.

THE FRONT HAS STARTED TO STALL OUT IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
LINE ACROSS INTERIOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...TRINITY COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTY. THIS MAY SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THEN THIS
EVENING WILL START TO PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING THIS WILL PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS THIS
PUSHES NORTH THE RAIN WILL END BEHIND IT. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED
SLIGHTLY ON THIS AND THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ON FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS...BUT THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THIS
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND ALMOST DRIZZLE. FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MAY ALLOW THE COAST TO
WARM UP INTO THE 70S WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALL MODELS BRINGING THE RAIN IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND LOOK TO
PEAK SATURDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE
RIDGES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST...BUT HELD OFF ON
ISSUING THAT WITH IT STILL BEING A DAY OR SO OUT AND CONFIDENCENOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS SO FAR THIS FALL GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
IN ELEVATED AREAS SUCH AS KNEELAND AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE COAST
IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY VARY WIDELY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY. THIS MAY ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST TO THE WATERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN
SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE SHOWERS OVER
DEL NORTE COUNTY A BIT LONGER THAN THE GFS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE MAINLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS...WHILE THE COAST MAY SEE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY. MKK

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU)...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS MANY
INTERIOR VALLEY`S WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE GREATER ACROSS NORTHER AREAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED OUT OVER THE AREA.
TONIGHT THIS FRONT STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING LIGHT MISTY RAIN. THIS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT SOME POINTS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TAFS
TONIGHT. TOMORROW AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE NORTH THE RAIN WILL
END AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL ALSO LIFT THE
CIGS ALONG AT THE AIRPORTS. GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. MKK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE DIMINISHING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER A WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
 DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. A GALE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ANS MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING DUE TO THE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 231131
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
431 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING RAIN TO NW CALIFORNIA
DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT CAUSING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU THROUGH SUN)...A COLD FRONT SINKING TO THE SSE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOW, STALL, AND WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT POPS AND QPF UP
OVER THE STALLED AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR RAIN, EVEN AS IT WEAKENS. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT AND STRENGTHEN THIS WEAK BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS. THE
WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO HUMBOLDT, TRINITY, AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS WARM
FRONT SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO AROUND AN INCH. ONCE THIS
WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF NW CAL, THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE
RATHER NICE, ALBEIT BREEZY.

FRIDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY BEHIND A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF
A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WINDS
WILL HAVE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THEN TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS IN THE 925 TO 850 MB
LAYER INCREASING RAPIDLY WITH THE COMING COLD FRONT. WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
ACROSS NW CAL, BUT THE MAIN CHUNK OF WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL RANGES OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL
LIKELY HAVE PEAK GUSTS INTO THE 50 MPH RANGE. WINDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL LIKELY ALSO BE GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. WE MAY NEED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD, BUT
WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE DOING THAT. WITH A
STRONG WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK FOR TEMPS
TO INCREASE AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT BAY REGION WILL HAVE SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPS DUE TO ADIABATIC COMPRESSION OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE FORTUNA
AND RIO DELL AREAS. DESPITE THE WARMTH IT WILL BE BREEZY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TEMPS REACHING THIS HIGH, SO HAVE KEPT THEM
IN THE LOW 70S FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THIS TODAY AND
HOW MODELS HANDLE IT. WHILE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, SKIES WILL SHOW SOME CLEARING AS WELL. FRIDAY HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF NW CAL.

AS FOR THE COLD FRONT ITSELF, MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS RESOLVING PRECISE LANDFALL AND THIS MORNINGS
RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT. THE GFS AND EC HAVE SLOWED TO NEAR WHAT THE
NAM WAS SHOWING YESTERDAY, BUT THE NAM HAS SLOWED EVEN FURTHER AS
WELL. SO HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT A BIT MORE, BRINGING IT IN
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR QPF WITH THE FRONT STUCK
NEAR THE CNRFC QPF WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD SINCE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG MOISTURE TAP
ACROSS THE PACIFIC. MODELS ARE SHOWING A HINT OF INSTABILITY ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT, SO HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONG JET AND A DIGGING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME STRONG
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A COLD POOL WILL ALSO FOLLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THESE STRONG SHOWERS TO BRING SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL TO AROUND 5KFT DURING THIS TIME. FOR THIS
EVENT QPF SHOULD AMOUNT TO SEVERAL INCHES IN UPSLOPE PRONE
TERRAIN.

BY SUNDAY A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING, THOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON SUNDAY. OVERALL, LOOK FOR SOME RAIN WITH A
WARM FRONT TODAY, STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY, AND HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. BFG

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU)...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DRYING THINGS OUT FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 4 C. MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ARE FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT
CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BY THURSDAY...MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS YET ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. KEPT POPS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTH. STP


&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK OVER UKI THIS MORNING CAUSING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO ACV
AND CEC. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN SHOWERS BEHIND THIS FRONT
THIS MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST AREAS OF NW CAL WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR DURING HEAVY RAIN. THERE WILL BE BRIEF SHOTS OF VFR, BUT AM
NOT GOING FOR THIS HEAVILY IN THE FORECAST. BFG

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10Z NEAR SHORE BUOYS WERE REPORTING SEAS OF 10 TO
11 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 13 SECONDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL DECREASE TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. AS A RESULT...LET THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN ITS` PLACE...IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA`S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE
WESTERLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT THE LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ450-470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 230050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
550 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO NW
CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE COASTAL RANGES
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
GUSTS NOW EXCEEDING 35 KT AT BUOY 27 OFF OF CRESCENT CITY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR
TONIGHT.

ALSO CLOSELY MONITORING GUSTS ALONG THE DEL NORTE COAST WHERE THE
WINDS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. RPA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 339 PM PDT...

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL RAIN ON AND OFF IN CEC THIS AFTERNOON.
H2OV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A NICE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POINTED AT THE
NORTH COAST WHICH WILL BRING WELL NEEDED RAINFALL TO MOST OF
NORTHWEST CA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL RESIDES FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS MAINTAIN SOME
FRONTAL ACTION NEAR THE ORCA BORDER BUT LIFTS IT TO THE NORTH AND
LEAVES THE CWA MAINLY DRY. BUT MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...AS A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
WETTER...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BFG/JT/STP

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH WEST COAST TONIGHT.  CEC
AIRPORT REPORTED INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE LATE MORNING.
BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY GUSTY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN HAS BASICALLY BEEN SLOW TO
ARRIVE BUT WILL REACH THE COAST TONIGHT... RAIN...WIND AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT STEADILY TREKS TOWARDS
THE AREA...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INCREASING STEEP WAVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY A LARGE WESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 230050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
550 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO NW
CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE COASTAL RANGES
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
GUSTS NOW EXCEEDING 35 KT AT BUOY 27 OFF OF CRESCENT CITY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS FOR
TONIGHT.

ALSO CLOSELY MONITORING GUSTS ALONG THE DEL NORTE COAST WHERE THE
WINDS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. RPA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 339 PM PDT...

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL RAIN ON AND OFF IN CEC THIS AFTERNOON.
H2OV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A NICE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POINTED AT THE
NORTH COAST WHICH WILL BRING WELL NEEDED RAINFALL TO MOST OF
NORTHWEST CA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL RESIDES FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS MAINTAIN SOME
FRONTAL ACTION NEAR THE ORCA BORDER BUT LIFTS IT TO THE NORTH AND
LEAVES THE CWA MAINLY DRY. BUT MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...AS A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
WETTER...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BFG/JT/STP

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH WEST COAST TONIGHT.  CEC
AIRPORT REPORTED INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE LATE MORNING.
BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY GUSTY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN HAS BASICALLY BEEN SLOW TO
ARRIVE BUT WILL REACH THE COAST TONIGHT... RAIN...WIND AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT STEADILY TREKS TOWARDS
THE AREA...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INCREASING STEEP WAVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY A LARGE WESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 222239
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO NW
CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE COASTAL RANGES
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL RAIN ON AND OFF IN CEC THIS AFTERNOON.
H2OV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A NICE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POINTED AT THE
NORTH COAST WHICH WILL BRING WELL NEEDED RAINFALL TO MOST OF
NORTHWEST CA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTITY STILL RESIDES FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS MAINTAIN SOME
FRONTAL ACTION NEAR THE ORCA BORDER BUT LIFTS IT TO THE NORTH AND
LEAVES THE CWA MAINLY DRY. BUT MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...AS A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
WETTER...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BFG/JT/STP

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH WEST COAST TONIGHT.  CEC
AIRPORT REPORTED IMTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE LATE MORNING.
BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY GUSTY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN HAS BASICALLY BEEN SLOW TO
ARRIVE BUT WILL REACH THE COAST TONIGHT... RAIN...WIND AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT STEADILY TREKS TOWARDS
THE AREA...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INCREASING STEEP WAVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY A LARGE WESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 222239
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO NW
CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE COASTAL RANGES
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL RAIN ON AND OFF IN CEC THIS AFTERNOON.
H2OV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A NICE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POINTED AT THE
NORTH COAST WHICH WILL BRING WELL NEEDED RAINFALL TO MOST OF
NORTHWEST CA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTITY STILL RESIDES FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS MAINTAIN SOME
FRONTAL ACTION NEAR THE ORCA BORDER BUT LIFTS IT TO THE NORTH AND
LEAVES THE CWA MAINLY DRY. BUT MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...AS A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
WETTER...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BFG/JT/STP

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH WEST COAST TONIGHT.  CEC
AIRPORT REPORTED IMTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE LATE MORNING.
BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY GUSTY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN HAS BASICALLY BEEN SLOW TO
ARRIVE BUT WILL REACH THE COAST TONIGHT... RAIN...WIND AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT STEADILY TREKS TOWARDS
THE AREA...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INCREASING STEEP WAVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY A LARGE WESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 221157
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
457 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN TO NW CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE
COASTAL RANGES OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SAT)...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE TAKING AIM AT NW CAL. LIGHT
RAIN HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT CRESCENT CITY THIS MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS NW CAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE NNW TO THE SSE. AS IT DRIPS INTO
SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY, MODEL INDICATE THE FRONT STALLING OUT
THEN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THU. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY STALLING OUT, A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THU AND INTO FRI. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AS A RESULT OF
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOLLOWING THIS
WARM FRONT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW CAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SOME DRYING AND CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WE`LL SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT AND WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST
THE COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN ON THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
COLD FRONT TO BE RATHER POTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER, MODELS DO DIFFER IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE AS WE GET
BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT AND BEGIN TO SEE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP.

OVERALL LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH
LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. BFG

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU WED)...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AS
A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MOVE OVER THE AREA.
MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS
IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND WETTER...COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. STP

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS A COLD FRONT SINKS
ACROSS NW CAL. DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LOOK FOR LIFR/IFR.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CEC WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. CEC WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP, WHICH IT
ALREADY HAS, THEN ACV LATE MORNING AND UKI IN THE EVENING. TIMING
SHOULD BE GOOD IN THE TAFS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
BFG

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10Z NEAR SHORE BUOYS WERE REPORTING SEAS OF 9 TO
10 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 12 SECONDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PEAK THIS EVENING DUE TO AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE
WATERS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE STEEP SEAS TO
BUILD...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS WILL
DECREASE ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470 FROM
9 AM THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE...CONTINUING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AS SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO THE
WEEKEND. STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 212222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THEN THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
SYSTEM IS DISPLAYING A FIREHOUSE TYPE PATTERN WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
FAVORED TERRAIN AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)....BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOW
COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE QPF. THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IN THE
ECMWF IS STILL NORTH OF THE GFS AND NOT AS DEEP SO WINDS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS MAY END UP BEING THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE WITH
REGARD TO IMPACT. WITH THAT SAID A DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE
COASTLINE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ONE ISSUE WITH REGARD TO HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW. WITH GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
COAST FLOW THE OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
REALIZED AND THIS MAY CAUSE QPF VALUES TO BE LIMITED AT LEAST ON THE
COASTAL HILLS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO DIFFER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER LAND FALLING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK. MKN



&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
CEC AND VICINITY PICKED UP NEARLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. AT UKI CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TODAY...THE REGION CAME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWED A PLETHORA A MOSTLY
HIGHER CLOUDS TO STREAMED ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTING REGIONAL AIRPORTS WILL BE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL START IN THE FAR
NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT... AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TA


&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED
MON EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN
REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. THE SCA WILL END IN
455 ON THU. MKN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 212222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THEN THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
SYSTEM IS DISPLAYING A FIREHOUSE TYPE PATTERN WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
FAVORED TERRAIN AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)....BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOW
COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE QPF. THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IN THE
ECMWF IS STILL NORTH OF THE GFS AND NOT AS DEEP SO WINDS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS MAY END UP BEING THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE WITH
REGARD TO IMPACT. WITH THAT SAID A DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE
COASTLINE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ONE ISSUE WITH REGARD TO HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW. WITH GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
COAST FLOW THE OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
REALIZED AND THIS MAY CAUSE QPF VALUES TO BE LIMITED AT LEAST ON THE
COASTAL HILLS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO DIFFER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER LAND FALLING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK. MKN



&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
CEC AND VICINITY PICKED UP NEARLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. AT UKI CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TODAY...THE REGION CAME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWED A PLETHORA A MOSTLY
HIGHER CLOUDS TO STREAMED ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTING REGIONAL AIRPORTS WILL BE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL START IN THE FAR
NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT... AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TA


&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED
MON EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN
REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. THE SCA WILL END IN
455 ON THU. MKN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





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