000
FXUS66 KEKA 182158
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
258 PM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG THE REDWOOD
COAST, MOVING TO THE EAST, WHILE RADAR SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG TO FORM AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY AND THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF ON SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SHOULD STAY
TO OUR NORTH FROM ROUGHLY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NOW THAT
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE
TROUGH. RAISED POPS TO ALMOST DOUBLE CLIMO NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, WHEN THE LOW WILL BE CLOSES TO US. KEPT POPS
BELOW CLIMO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, WHERE THERE
WILL BE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DURING THE DAY AND THE POPS REFLECT THIS. NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CIGS TO
COASTAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES
INLAND LATE TONIGHT. IN THE EARLY MORNING THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL MIX OUT THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND IMPROVE CONDITIONS
FROM MVFR TO VFR. FARTHER INLAND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEYS WITH VFR PERSISTING ELSEWHERE. VALLEY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING. RPA
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER STRENGTHENED SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO
BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET. THUS THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED
WITH SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE INNER WATERS. A TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST TUESDAY DISTURBING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WEAKENING THE WINDS. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...AND
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...BUT GENERALLY A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
WINDS WILL BEGIN AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY RESTRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE CAPE
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
LOWER FARTHER NORTH WHERE INFLUENCES FROM A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE GREATER. RPA
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 181022
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TODAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE AND COASTAL MENDO COUNTY. OBS FROM FOT AND
WEB CAMS INDICATE FG MORE PREVALENT INLAND. LATEST TRENDS SHOW
CLOUDS N OF CAPE MENDO BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVG INTO CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH SCHC-CHC FOR SHRA
MAINLY N OF HWY 299. PRECIP WILL REMAIN LGT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED TODAY. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM PASSES BY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. NLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST SUN AS A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTERACTS WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN MON AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
DEEPENING OVER THE PAC NW. MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN N OF
CWA BUT EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE W COAST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WX WITH A SCHC OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK RIDGING HAS BEEN CREATING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH VIRTUALLY NO LOW CLOUD OR FOG AT KACV AND KCEC THIS MORNING.
CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS AND LITTLE IF ANY LOW CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. KUKI SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE PAC NW SUNDAY AS
THERMAL LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL REACH GALE...PRIMARILY IN THE OUTER WATERS...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AND A WARNING FOR SEAS MAY BE
NECESSARY AS SEAS HIT 10-12 FT AT 8 SECONDS BY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUN TO 5 AM PDT THU FOR PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUN TO 5 AM PDT TUE FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT SUN FOR PZZ475.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUN TO 5 AM PDT THU FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 172203
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
303 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. SATELLITE
SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST WHILE RADAR SHOWS NO
PRECIPITATION. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF ON SATURDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANGE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SAYING QPF WILL BE
LITTLE, IF ANYTHING. THIS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CA/OR BORDER, WHICH
IS REFLECTED IN LOW POPS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS
REPLACED BY A TROUGH BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. KEPT POPS
AROUND CLIMO FROM TUESDAY ONWARD TO REFLECT THIS. THE SYSTEM
DOESN`T APPEAR TO TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE, WHICH IS GOOD AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCEC AND KACV WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KUKI THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL INTERACT
WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLY GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BEYOND TUESDAY.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM PZZ450-455.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 171529 AAA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
829 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES WHILE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, FOG. UPDATED THE MORNING SKY
AND WEATHER FORECAST TO REMOVE FOG AND TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND
THIS MORNING WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E PAC MOVG E. SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRIER AND WARMER WX WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING OVER THE RIDGE SAT...SO KEPT SCHC-CHC POPS
FOR AREAS N OF CAPE MENDO. FURTHER S...WARMING AND DRYING TREND
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WARM AND DRY WX WITH MORNING FG/STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
AND INLAND VALLEYS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. NLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY SUN AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN MON AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE PAC NW. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE W
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WX WITH A SCHC
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...VARIABLE AND FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC AND KACV THIS MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DIP TO IFR AT
TIMES BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MORE IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER COASTAL AREAS.
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
INTERACT WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY REACH GALE...PRIMARILY IN THE OUTER
WATERS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AND A WARNING FOR
SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY BY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 171017
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
317 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND
THIS MORNING WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E PAC MOVG E. SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRIER AND WARMER WX WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING OVER THE RIDGE SAT...SO KEPT SCHC-CHC POPS
FOR AREAS N OF CAPE MENDO. FURTHER S...WARMING AND DRYING TREND
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WARM AND DRY WX WITH MORNING FG/STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
AND INLAND VALLEYS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. NLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY SUN AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN MON AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE PAC NW. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE W
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WX WITH A SCHC
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VARIABLE AND FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC AND KACV THIS MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DIP TO IFR AT
TIMES BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MORE IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
INTERACT WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY REACH GALE...PRIMARILY IN THE OUTER
WATERS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AND A WARNING FOR
SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY BY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 170030
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
530 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO CUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH COAST AND
ADJUST SKY COVER. BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AND WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN IN INTERIOR AREAS
AND MENDO COAST AFTER SUNSET. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN INTENSITY AND BRIEF. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...UNTIL VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPS TOWARD MORNING. AT THE COAST CEILINGS ARE ALREADY ON
THEIR WAY DOWN AND GIVEN CALMING WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AAD
&&
.AVIATION...
ALREADY SEEING BKN CIGS BELOW 1KFT AT KACV AND KCEC. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S AND CALMING WINDS...EXPECT THE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH 06Z. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE A
GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS LESS
PESSIMISTIC ESPECIALLY WRT VSBYS AND GIVEN FAIRLY MIXED ALBEIT
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ONLY WENT 2-3SM. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE VV002 AND 1/2SM FG BY MORNING THOUGH. STILL THINK CONDITIONS
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING WITH NW FLOW AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INVERSION. RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY DID NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER INLAND. UKIAH
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF 1000 FT CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD BE BELOW THEIR MINIMUMS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE RELATIVELY
THIN AND BRIEF WITH LIMITED OR NO VSBY REDUCTION IF IT OCCURS. AAD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. IN THE SHORT
TERM RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AND DRYING CONDITIONS. REDUCED POPS, QPF, AND CLOUDS TO
REFLECT THIS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF FRIDAY, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A DRIER AND WARMER DAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
BECAUSE IF IT TAPS INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS
AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS. BUT RIGHT NOW THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
THE CASE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAIN ENERGY SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION...LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CEILINGS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN DECREASE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV WITH LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
THOROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUBSEQUENTLY THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
SOUTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NECESSARY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 162300
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
400 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. IN THE SHORT
TERM RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AND DRYING CONDITIONS. REDUCED POPS, QPF, AND CLOUDS TO
REFLECT THIS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF FRIDAY, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A DRIER AND WARMER DAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
BECAUSE IF IT TAPS INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS
AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS. BUT RIGHT NOW THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
THE CASE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAIN ENERGY SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CEILINGS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN DECREASE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV WITH LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
THOROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUBSEQUENTLY THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
SOUTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NECESSARY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 161727 AAA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1027 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA AND DRYING CONDITIONS. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO REDUCE POPS AND QPF TO REFLECT THIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE BEST UPLIFT ALONG
THE COAST WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE. RAINFALL RATES IN THIS BAND HAVE RANGED
FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. THE BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL
MOVE INLAND AND EAST OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK
INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT WITHIN THE TROUGH...WILL TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. LAPSE
RATES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN WEAK SO NO
THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
RAPIDLY DECREASING THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
GENERALLY FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO COASTAL LOCATIONS RESULTING IN GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE
AND COOLER TEMPS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE INTERIOR ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE COUNTY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. INTERIOR VALLEY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RAINS TODAY LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY COASTAL STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED
..POSSIBLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. RPA
LONG TERM....SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING COASTAL CLOUDS TO A
MINIMUM. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS TO THE COAST. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN...PEAKING ON MONDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS WARM. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 60 WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THEM A BIT COOLER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE
EXPECTED IN THIS OFFSHORE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE FAIRLY DRY...BUT PUT CLIMO POPS (SLIGHT
CHANCE) IN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
SOME FAIRLY DRAMATIC COOLING WITH THIS TROUGH...AS MUCH AS 10 TO
20 DEGREES LOWER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY. SOME INLAND
AREAS COULD SEE SOME FROST...BUT THE EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT THIS. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY. THURSDAY THIS TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA. THERE BEGINS TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...BUT THEY OVERALL THEY AGREE ON THE PATTERN. MKK
AVIATION..A BAND OF RAIN HAS BROUGHT LOWER CIGS TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIFR OCCURRING AT CEC. AS THIS BAND
MOVES EAST...CIGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY INTO IFR OR MVFR FOR LATER
THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY MIXING OUT COASTAL STRATUS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY LOWER CIGS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
IN MENDOCINO COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL NOW
ANTICIPATED...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AS HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS MOVE EAST...TEMPERATURES COOL AND LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH.
RPA
MARINE...TODAY A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET AT 10 SECONDS. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING ON THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AND
BRINGING NEAR GALES TO GALES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STEEP SHORT
PERIODS WAVES LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 14 FT ON MONDAY. BUMPED THE WINDS
UP TO BE IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS...BUT IT USUALLY RUNS A BIT
HIGH ON THE SURFACE WINDS.
MID-WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE WAVE
WATCH MODEL. IT IS SHOWING IT BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AT
AROUND 3 FT AT 20 SECONDS. BUOYS 51203 AND 51204 AROUND HAWAII HAVE
STARTED TO SHOW THIS SWELL. IT MAY BE COMING IN A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT IT IS STILL THERE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. MKK
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 161039
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN WILL DECREASE TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
AIR WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE BEST UPLIFT ALONG
THE COAST WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE. RAINFALL RATES IN THIS BAND HAVE RANGED
FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. THE BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL
MOVE INLAND AND EAST OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK
INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT WITHIN THE TROUGH...WILL TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. LAPSE
RATES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN WEAK SO NO
THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
RAPIDLY DECREASING THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
GENERALLY FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO COASTAL LOCATIONS RESULTING IN GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE
AND COOLER TEMPS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE INTERIOR ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE COUNTY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. INTERIOR VALLEY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RAINS TODAY LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY COASTAL STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED
...POSSIBLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. RPA
.LONG TERM....SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING COASTAL CLOUDS TO A
MINIMUM. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS TO THE COAST. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN...PEAKING ON MONDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS WARM. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 60 WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THEM A BIT COOLER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE
EXPECTED IN THIS OFFSHORE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE FAIRLY DRY...BUT PUT CLIMO POPS (SLIGHT
CHANCE) IN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
SOME FAIRLY DRAMATIC COOLING WITH THIS TROUGH...AS MUCH AS 10 TO
20 DEGREES LOWER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY. SOME INLAND
AREAS COULD SEE SOME FROST...BUT THE EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT THIS. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY. THURSDAY THIS TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA. THERE BEGINS TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...BUT THEY OVERALL THEY AGREE ON THE PATTERN. MKK
&&
.AVIATION..A BAND OF RAIN HAS BROUGHT LOWER CIGS TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIFR OCCURRING AT CEC. AS THIS BAND
MOVES EAST...CIGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY INTO IFR OR MVFR FOR LATER
THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY MIXING OUT COASTAL STRATUS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY LOWER CIGS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
IN MENDOCINO COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL NOW
ANTICIPATED...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AS HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS MOVE EAST...TEMPERATURES COOL AND LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH.
RPA
&&
.MARINE...TODAY A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET AT 10 SECONDS. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING ON THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AND
BRINGING NEAR GALES TO GALES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STEEP SHORT
PERIODS WAVES LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 14 FT ON MONDAY. BUMPED THE WINDS
UP TO BE IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS...BUT IT USUALLY RUNS A BIT
HIGH ON THE SURFACE WINDS.
MID-WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE WAVE
WATCH MODEL. IT IS SHOWING IT BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AT
AROUND 3 FT AT 20 SECONDS. BUOYS 51203 AND 51204 AROUND HAWAII HAVE
STARTED TO SHOW THIS SWELL. IT MAY BE COMING IN A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT IT IS STILL THERE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. MKK
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
| 
