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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281110
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
310 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS AN INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
FINALLY MOVES ON LAND. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN STALLED JUST OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LAST 24 OR SO HOURS. DECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER WITH 24 HR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-
1.5 INCHES JUST NORTH OF BROOKINGS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER FOR
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE FRONT MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE...PASSING FROM DEL NORTE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
MENDOCINO COUNTY BY LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-1
INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES.

THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON
SATURDAY. RAIN WITH THIS SECOND FRONT WILL REACH DEL NORTE COUNTY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT
AND TRINITY COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY BUT ANY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS...WEAKENS...AND
THEN RETREATS BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. RAINFALL OVER
HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE...AND TRINITY COUNTIES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
0.50-2 INCHES...AGAIN WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH ON
SUNDAY AT THE SAME TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS
TO HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWERS BECOME SUNDAY. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. RPA


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A
CUT OFF LOW WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRAJECTORY AND
TIMING OF THIS LOW IN THE MODELS IS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. THE GFS IS FASTER MOVING
THE LOW TO TO 37N 131W BY 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES BEHIND NEAR 34N 134W AT THE SAME TIME. THIS
SMALL DIFFERENCE PLACES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA EITHER WITHIN THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WITHIN A REGION OF HIGH
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (THE GFS SOLUTION) OR EAST OF THIS REGION AND
RELATIVELY DRY (THE ECMWF SOLUTION) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT. CUTOFF
LOWS ARE TYPICALLY SLOWER THAN PREDICTED...THUS IT IS MORE LIKELY
THAT THE CORRECT SOLUTION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. QPF FORECASTS
FOR THAT PERIOD HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE.

THE SLOWER ECMWF BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION LATE ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LIGHTER THAN THE GFS...WHILE THE GFS LINGERS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING BOTH SOLUTIONS
RESULT IN AT LEAST SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE TWO PERIODS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AS WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD THAT ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN KEPT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SNOW LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ABOVE
5000 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING AT KCEC AND KACV. SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME AREAS
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AND
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER LATER THIS MORNING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS HAVE INCREASED. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME NORTHERLY SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE A
WESTERLY SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD WAVES INTO NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND/OR SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 272320
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
320 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING RAIN SKIRTING ALONG THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND
HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN SW OREGON...WITH LITTLE OR NOTHING IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY AS OF 3PM. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN STREAMING INTO SW OREGON SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF 130W. THIS DOES
NOT BODE WELL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY THIS EVENING. GRANTED A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WONT
BE VERY MUCH...PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ALL THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL BAND EDGING CLOSER TO THE NORCAL COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG
THE NORTH COAST AND OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.

ALL THE MODELS DRIVE THE NARROW AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE RAIN AMOUNTS WHICH ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
ON FRIDAY; AROUND A TENTH IN SOUTHERN MENDO TO ABOUT 3/4 OF AN
INCH IN DEL NORTE. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM THIS FIRST BOUT OF RAIN OTHER THAN IT WILL MAKE THE
ROADS WET. ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CNRFC/WPC QPF
GUIDANCE HERE. THE MODELS TAKE THIS BAND OF RAIN SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE PAC
NW BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME ON WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR AS COOLING
ALOFT AND AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE GFS TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE
RAIN SOUTHWARD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BY 18Z SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A SECONDARY MAX OCCURRING NORTH OF CAPE MENDO AS A NEW BAND OF
RAIN DEVELOPS. THE NAM12 SHOWS BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...THOUGH WAS
NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PRECIP. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND COOLING ALOFT. SNOW
LEVELS MAY GRADUALLY FALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT...WITH LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 5KFT. QPF APPEARS TO FALL OFF SAT
NIGHT PER THE ECMWF AND NAM12...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP RAMPING
UP AGAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE
COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. EVEN THE NEW RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
RAMP UP IN RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT HAS THE BULK OF IT OVER THE SFO
BAY AREA AND EAST OVER THE SAC VALLEY. SO THE NORTH COAST AND
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR MAY NOT SEE ANY MORE
RAIN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS A BAND MOVING UP THE COAST
DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER SOGGY DAY. EVEN THE
NAM12 SHOWS A NEW BAND OF RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MENDO COUNTY ON
SUNDAY...MOVING IT NORTHWESTWARD OUT TOWARD SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT BY
SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS NOT HIGH.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY CLEARER OR WELL DEFINED SUN NIGHT INTO
MON OR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR THAT MATTER. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE COAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
BUT VARY ON HOW FAST. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTEST AND
WETTEST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOWER AND LESS BOLD WITH THE RAIN. THE
CMC WAS IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF RAIN IS STILL VERY QUESTIONABLE. TRYING
TO PIN POINT THE BEST DAY(S) AND LOCATION(S) HAS PROVEN TO BE VERY
DIFFICULT. BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT...CONSIDERING ALL THE
INCONGRUENT DATA...IS TO BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF RAIN OR NO RAIN. //END

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MVFR RESULTING FROM BANDS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST THIS EVENING,
THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE RAIN BANDS, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...THE AFTERNOON BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FRESH SOUTHERLY
BREEZE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND A GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE SOUTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NEAR 7-9 FT NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO AND AROUND 5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. SEAS ARE MIXED
WITH A LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE WEST AND BUILDING WIND WAVES
FROM THE SOUTH. THE 1718Z ASCAT PASS CLIPPED PART OF OUR WATERS. IT
SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND 10-20 KT SOUTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE OBSERVED WINDS WERE ABOUT 5 KT STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO, SO INCREASED THE FORECASTED WINDS
THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM TO REFLECT THIS. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UNCHANGED.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE MIXED WITH A W
SWELL, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND, AND SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES BUILDING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WINDS SHOULD EASE AND BECOME NORTHERLY AS A DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AS WE GO
INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. BUT AGAIN THE
STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WIND CHANGE DIFFERS BASED ON
THE MODELS. ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION,
STEEPNESS, ETC. REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 272320
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
320 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING RAIN SKIRTING ALONG THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND
HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN SW OREGON...WITH LITTLE OR NOTHING IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY AS OF 3PM. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN STREAMING INTO SW OREGON SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF 130W. THIS DOES
NOT BODE WELL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY THIS EVENING. GRANTED A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WONT
BE VERY MUCH...PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ALL THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL BAND EDGING CLOSER TO THE NORCAL COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG
THE NORTH COAST AND OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.

ALL THE MODELS DRIVE THE NARROW AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE RAIN AMOUNTS WHICH ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
ON FRIDAY; AROUND A TENTH IN SOUTHERN MENDO TO ABOUT 3/4 OF AN
INCH IN DEL NORTE. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM THIS FIRST BOUT OF RAIN OTHER THAN IT WILL MAKE THE
ROADS WET. ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CNRFC/WPC QPF
GUIDANCE HERE. THE MODELS TAKE THIS BAND OF RAIN SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE PAC
NW BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME ON WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR AS COOLING
ALOFT AND AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE GFS TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE
RAIN SOUTHWARD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BY 18Z SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A SECONDARY MAX OCCURRING NORTH OF CAPE MENDO AS A NEW BAND OF
RAIN DEVELOPS. THE NAM12 SHOWS BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...THOUGH WAS
NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PRECIP. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND COOLING ALOFT. SNOW
LEVELS MAY GRADUALLY FALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT...WITH LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 5KFT. QPF APPEARS TO FALL OFF SAT
NIGHT PER THE ECMWF AND NAM12...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP RAMPING
UP AGAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE
COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. EVEN THE NEW RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
RAMP UP IN RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT HAS THE BULK OF IT OVER THE SFO
BAY AREA AND EAST OVER THE SAC VALLEY. SO THE NORTH COAST AND
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR MAY NOT SEE ANY MORE
RAIN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS A BAND MOVING UP THE COAST
DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER SOGGY DAY. EVEN THE
NAM12 SHOWS A NEW BAND OF RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MENDO COUNTY ON
SUNDAY...MOVING IT NORTHWESTWARD OUT TOWARD SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT BY
SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS NOT HIGH.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY CLEARER OR WELL DEFINED SUN NIGHT INTO
MON OR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR THAT MATTER. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE COAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
BUT VARY ON HOW FAST. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTEST AND
WETTEST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOWER AND LESS BOLD WITH THE RAIN. THE
CMC WAS IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF RAIN IS STILL VERY QUESTIONABLE. TRYING
TO PIN POINT THE BEST DAY(S) AND LOCATION(S) HAS PROVEN TO BE VERY
DIFFICULT. BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT...CONSIDERING ALL THE
INCONGRUENT DATA...IS TO BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF RAIN OR NO RAIN. //END

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MVFR RESULTING FROM BANDS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST THIS EVENING,
THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE RAIN BANDS, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...THE AFTERNOON BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FRESH SOUTHERLY
BREEZE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND A GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE SOUTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NEAR 7-9 FT NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO AND AROUND 5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. SEAS ARE MIXED
WITH A LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE WEST AND BUILDING WIND WAVES
FROM THE SOUTH. THE 1718Z ASCAT PASS CLIPPED PART OF OUR WATERS. IT
SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND 10-20 KT SOUTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE OBSERVED WINDS WERE ABOUT 5 KT STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO, SO INCREASED THE FORECASTED WINDS
THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM TO REFLECT THIS. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UNCHANGED.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE MIXED WITH A W
SWELL, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND, AND SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES BUILDING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WINDS SHOULD EASE AND BECOME NORTHERLY AS A DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AS WE GO
INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. BUT AGAIN THE
STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WIND CHANGE DIFFERS BASED ON
THE MODELS. ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION,
STEEPNESS, ETC. REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271647
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
847 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN SPREADING
INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MOVING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THIS MORNING. THESE RETURNS HAVE BEEN
CLIPPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF DEL NORTE COUNTY THIS MORNING.
AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES HAVE REGISTERED A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS NORTH
OF THE ORCA BORDER IN SW OREGON...WITH NOTHING SOUTH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE FRONT OFFSHORE THE OREGON
COAST EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OUTSIDE NORCAL COASTAL WATERS.
AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED BULGE HAS BEEN FORMING WEST OF THE
NORTH COAST INDICATING THAT THE FRONT IS STARTING TO SLOW DOWN AND
STALL. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS STALLING
TREND...SHOWING VERY LITTLE OR NO RAIN DEVELOPING IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS I REDUCED THE PRECIP CHANCES
AND QPF ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE FRONT EDGING CLOSER TO THE NORCAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 140W
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY AND
PERHAPS AS LATE AS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MENDO COUNTY. //END

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 413 AM PST...

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT JUST TO THE NORTH OF ORCAL
BORDER THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO FALL OVER
SOUTHERN OR. THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP STAYING FARTHER NORTH. NOW THE 06Z GFS
HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL SO THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
OREGON A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT...BUT
KEPT THEM MOSTLY THE SAME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THERE WILL BE A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOT OF RAIN AND NEARLY NOTHING. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE CRESCENT CITY MAY BE ON THE DRY
SIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
INLAND VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY ARE SEEING SOME FOG THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN OREGON IN THE
EVENING WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE FRONT SPREADING RAIN
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TO CAPE MENDOCINO AND INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY
BY SUNRISE. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR
NOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT
GENERALLY FAVOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO THE WARM AIRMASS AND AND
FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS IS SHOWING AMOUNTS RANGING A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO NEARLY AN INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WENT A BIT
HIGHER THAN THIS DUE TO REASONS STATED ABOVE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WARM AND MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING. THE GFS HAS RATHER MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
MOST AREAS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HEAVIER RAIN. THE DIFFERENCES ARE
MAINLY DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FT IN MOST AREAS.
MKK

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SUNDAY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
START TO DIVERGE EVEN MORE. THE 06Z GFS BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HAS
THIS FRONT AS WELL...BUT IT IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE
CANADIAN HAS MORE OF A COMPROMISE. TRENDED POPS DOWN A BIT...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO WATCHED. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS OFF AND
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND PLOWS THIS LOW
OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH IT. THE
GFS BRINGS HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COAST DRY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BRINGS A
MUCH WEAKER FRONT ONSHORE AS THE LOW IS DRIFTING NORTHWARDS.
GENERALLY TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT
DID NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE FASTER SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS
VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE
COAST ERODE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FIRST ACROSS DEL
NORTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. KCEC
WILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, IF THE
FRONT SLIDES FARTHER EAST THEN KCEC CAN EXPECT LONGER LASTING
RAINFALL. AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF DEL NORTE COUNTY CAN
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE RAIN BEARING FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. KML

&&

.MARINE...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, A SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY CAUSING
SEAS TO BUILD NEAR 10 TO 13 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSEQUENTLY, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED TO MARINE ZONE 455
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL EASE BRIEFLY ON
SATURDAY AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND SHIFTS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB STICKING TO A
SOLUTION. THE LITTLE CHANGES MADE IN THE FORECAST WERE TO REMAIN
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION, STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO
HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE
MODELS. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271647
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
847 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN SPREADING
INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MOVING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THIS MORNING. THESE RETURNS HAVE BEEN
CLIPPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF DEL NORTE COUNTY THIS MORNING.
AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES HAVE REGISTERED A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS NORTH
OF THE ORCA BORDER IN SW OREGON...WITH NOTHING SOUTH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE FRONT OFFSHORE THE OREGON
COAST EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OUTSIDE NORCAL COASTAL WATERS.
AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED BULGE HAS BEEN FORMING WEST OF THE
NORTH COAST INDICATING THAT THE FRONT IS STARTING TO SLOW DOWN AND
STALL. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS STALLING
TREND...SHOWING VERY LITTLE OR NO RAIN DEVELOPING IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS I REDUCED THE PRECIP CHANCES
AND QPF ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE FRONT EDGING CLOSER TO THE NORCAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 140W
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY AND
PERHAPS AS LATE AS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MENDO COUNTY. //END

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 413 AM PST...

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT JUST TO THE NORTH OF ORCAL
BORDER THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO FALL OVER
SOUTHERN OR. THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP STAYING FARTHER NORTH. NOW THE 06Z GFS
HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL SO THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
OREGON A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT...BUT
KEPT THEM MOSTLY THE SAME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THERE WILL BE A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOT OF RAIN AND NEARLY NOTHING. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE CRESCENT CITY MAY BE ON THE DRY
SIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
INLAND VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY ARE SEEING SOME FOG THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN OREGON IN THE
EVENING WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE FRONT SPREADING RAIN
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TO CAPE MENDOCINO AND INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY
BY SUNRISE. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR
NOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT
GENERALLY FAVOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO THE WARM AIRMASS AND AND
FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS IS SHOWING AMOUNTS RANGING A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO NEARLY AN INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WENT A BIT
HIGHER THAN THIS DUE TO REASONS STATED ABOVE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WARM AND MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING. THE GFS HAS RATHER MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
MOST AREAS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HEAVIER RAIN. THE DIFFERENCES ARE
MAINLY DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FT IN MOST AREAS.
MKK

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SUNDAY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
START TO DIVERGE EVEN MORE. THE 06Z GFS BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HAS
THIS FRONT AS WELL...BUT IT IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE
CANADIAN HAS MORE OF A COMPROMISE. TRENDED POPS DOWN A BIT...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO WATCHED. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS OFF AND
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND PLOWS THIS LOW
OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH IT. THE
GFS BRINGS HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COAST DRY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BRINGS A
MUCH WEAKER FRONT ONSHORE AS THE LOW IS DRIFTING NORTHWARDS.
GENERALLY TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT
DID NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE FASTER SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS
VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE
COAST ERODE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FIRST ACROSS DEL
NORTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. KCEC
WILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, IF THE
FRONT SLIDES FARTHER EAST THEN KCEC CAN EXPECT LONGER LASTING
RAINFALL. AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF DEL NORTE COUNTY CAN
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE RAIN BEARING FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. KML

&&

.MARINE...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, A SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY CAUSING
SEAS TO BUILD NEAR 10 TO 13 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSEQUENTLY, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED TO MARINE ZONE 455
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL EASE BRIEFLY ON
SATURDAY AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND SHIFTS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB STICKING TO A
SOLUTION. THE LITTLE CHANGES MADE IN THE FORECAST WERE TO REMAIN
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION, STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO
HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE
MODELS. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 271213
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
413 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN SPREADING
INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT JUST TO THE NORTH OF ORCAL
BORDER THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO FALL OVER
SOUTHERN OR. THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP STAYING FARTHER NORTH. NOW THE 06Z GFS
HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL SO THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
OREGON A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT...BUT
KEPT THEM MOSTLY THE SAME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THERE WILL BE A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOT OF RAIN AND NEARLY NOTHING. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE CRESCENT CITY MAY BE ON THE DRY
SIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
INLAND VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY ARE SEEING SOME FOG THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN OREGON IN THE
EVENING WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE FRONT SPREADING RAIN
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TO CAPE MENDOCINO AND INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY
BY SUNRISE. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR
NOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT
GENERALLY FAVOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO THE WARM AIRMASS AND AND
FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS IS SHOWING AMOUNTS RANGING A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO NEARLY AN INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WENT A BIT
HIGHER THAN THIS DUE TO REASONS STATED ABOVE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WARM AND MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING. THE GFS HAS RATHER MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
MOST AREAS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HEAVIER RAIN. THE DIFFERENCES ARE
MAINLY DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FT IN MOST AREAS.
MKK

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SUNDAY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
START TO DIVERGE EVEN MORE. THE 06Z GFS BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HAS
THIS FRONT AS WELL...BUT IT IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE
CANADIAN HAS MORE OF A COMPROMISE. TRENDED POPS DOWN A BIT...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO WATCHED. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS OFF AND
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND PLOWS THIS LOW
OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH IT. THE
GFS BRINGS HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COAST DRY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BRINGS A
MUCH WEAKER FRONT ONSHORE AS THE LOW IS DRIFTING NORTHWARDS.
GENERALLY TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT
DID NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE FASTER SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS
VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE
COAST ERODE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FIRST ACROSS DEL
NORTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. KCEC
WILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, IF THE
FRONT SLIDES FARTHER EAST THEN KCEC CAN EXPECT LONGER LASTING
RAINFALL. AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF DEL NORTE COUNTY CAN
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE RAIN BEARING FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. KML

&&
.MARINE...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, A SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY CAUSING
SEAS TO BUILD NEAR 10 TO 13 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSEQUENTLY, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED TO MARINE ZONE 455
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL EASE BRIEFLY ON
SATURDAY AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND SHIFTS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB STICKING TO A
SOLUTION. THE LITTLE CHANGES MADE IN THE FORECAST WERE TO REMAIN
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION, STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO
HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE
MODELS. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271213
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
413 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN SPREADING
INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT JUST TO THE NORTH OF ORCAL
BORDER THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO FALL OVER
SOUTHERN OR. THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP STAYING FARTHER NORTH. NOW THE 06Z GFS
HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL SO THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
OREGON A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT...BUT
KEPT THEM MOSTLY THE SAME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THERE WILL BE A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOT OF RAIN AND NEARLY NOTHING. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE CRESCENT CITY MAY BE ON THE DRY
SIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
INLAND VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY ARE SEEING SOME FOG THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN OREGON IN THE
EVENING WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE FRONT SPREADING RAIN
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TO CAPE MENDOCINO AND INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY
BY SUNRISE. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR
NOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT
GENERALLY FAVOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO THE WARM AIRMASS AND AND
FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS IS SHOWING AMOUNTS RANGING A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO NEARLY AN INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WENT A BIT
HIGHER THAN THIS DUE TO REASONS STATED ABOVE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WARM AND MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING. THE GFS HAS RATHER MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
MOST AREAS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HEAVIER RAIN. THE DIFFERENCES ARE
MAINLY DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FT IN MOST AREAS.
MKK

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SUNDAY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
START TO DIVERGE EVEN MORE. THE 06Z GFS BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HAS
THIS FRONT AS WELL...BUT IT IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE
CANADIAN HAS MORE OF A COMPROMISE. TRENDED POPS DOWN A BIT...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO WATCHED. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS OFF AND
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND PLOWS THIS LOW
OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH IT. THE
GFS BRINGS HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COAST DRY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BRINGS A
MUCH WEAKER FRONT ONSHORE AS THE LOW IS DRIFTING NORTHWARDS.
GENERALLY TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT
DID NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE FASTER SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS
VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE
COAST ERODE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FIRST ACROSS DEL
NORTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. KCEC
WILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, IF THE
FRONT SLIDES FARTHER EAST THEN KCEC CAN EXPECT LONGER LASTING
RAINFALL. AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF DEL NORTE COUNTY CAN
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE RAIN BEARING FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. KML

&&
.MARINE...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, A SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY CAUSING
SEAS TO BUILD NEAR 10 TO 13 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSEQUENTLY, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED TO MARINE ZONE 455
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL EASE BRIEFLY ON
SATURDAY AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND SHIFTS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB STICKING TO A
SOLUTION. THE LITTLE CHANGES MADE IN THE FORECAST WERE TO REMAIN
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION, STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO
HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE
MODELS. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 270550
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LATEST 00Z MODELS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN CRESCENT CITY AREA ABOUT 6-7AM. MODELS SAG
THIS FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REST OF DEL NORTE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS TRINIDAD BEFORE PULLING IT BACK
TO THE WEST. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE THOUGH IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM MUCH WETTER THAN GFS THOUGH TIMING OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON IS ABOUT THE SAME. VERY SHARP RAINFALL
GRADIENT WITH VERY WET NAM FORECASTING ABOUT 0.60 IN THIS AFTERNOON
PERIOD AT CRESCENT CITY WITH ALMOST 1.5 INCHES NEAR SMITH RIVER. GFS
SHOWING ONLY ABOUT 0.10 AT CRESCENT CITY WITH SMITH RIVER ABOUT
0.20. NAM AND GFS FLIPPED AS TO WHICH WOULD BE WETTER MODEL COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING WHICH SHOWS UNCERTAINITY IS JUST WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. WILL LEAVE GRIDDED FORECAST AS IS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
WHERE FRONT STALLS AS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE NAM WOULD GIVE LOCAL
STREET AND CREEK FLOODING. WILL UPDATE THE AVIATION FORECAST TO HOLD
OFF RAIN AT KACV AND KUKI UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST CA, IT LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE HONEYDEW IN THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT PUSHES BACK EAST THROUGH ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. DEAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 329 PM...VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
FRONTAL BAND JUST OUTSIDE 130W MOVING EASTWARD. GFS...ECMWF AND
NAM12 SHOW THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-
OREGON BORDER ON THU. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAIN
DEVELOPING IN DEL NORTE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THU WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN 12HRS. THE
ECMWF AND NAM12 HAVE BEEN MUCH LIGHTER...ABOUT 0.25IN PER THE ECMWF
AND ABOUT 0.15IN PER THE NAM12. LEANED TOWARD THE ECWMF AND
CNRFC/WPC QPF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS 0.50IN. IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. IF THE GFS PANS OUT THE
SMITH RIVER COULD RISE RAPIDLY TO MONITOR STAGE. SOME PRECIP MAY
FORM SOUTH OF DEL NORTE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE OR-CA BORDER THU NIGHT...BEFORE A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SAT
MORNING. THE STORM WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO BE ABOVE ALL THE MAJOR
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY; ABOVE 5500 TO 6000 FT THAT IS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL SKETCHY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING A SECONDARY RAMP UP IN RAIN RATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS. IT IS GOING TO
BE RAINY AND WET THROUGH SAT...SO ROCKSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES AND
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAIN ARRIVES. THE GFS ONCE
AGAIN WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE FASTEST WITH SPREADING RAIN
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE ECWMF WAS
ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS HEAVY ON THE RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE A LOT OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE NAM12 INDICATES STRONGER DRYING AND COOLING AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT EVENING. THE NAM12 SCENARIO
SEEMS UNLIKELY. IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT...SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING
DRY TOO. FOR NOW SIDED WITH SPECTRAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN SOGGY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING
AND DURATION OF THE RAIN ARE QUESTIONABLE AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE FROM RUN TO RUN ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE 0Z GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH WE
WILL SEE A FEW MORE BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN...MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOW FOR MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE STARTS TO
FALL OFF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS START TO PART
COMPANY AND GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. THE GFS HAS IT DRYING OUT BY
WED WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH WET WEATHER. AVERAGED THE TWO
MODELS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF RAIN OR NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 945 PM...HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15KT STREAMING OVER
AREA AHEAD OF FRONT. LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS AGAIN DEVELOPED IN FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKE THE TRINITY VALLEY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST BUT EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO START AT KCEC ABOUT 6-7 AM WITH VFR
CEILINGS. FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND LOOKING FOR MODERATE-
HEAVY RAIN AT KCEC WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 10 AM AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT PULLS BACK SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING BUT
CIGS AT KCEC WITH REMAIN MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CEILINGS EXCEPT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR RAIN
TO MOVE INTO KACV AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CIGS BECOME MVFR. DEAN

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 945 PM...NEARSHORE BUOYS REPORTED SEAS FROM 4 TO 7
FEET AS OF 04Z THIS EVENING. A WESTERLY SWELL WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS INCREASING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ABOUT 100 TO 125 NM OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY THUNDER
TO THE OUTER WATERS AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY REMAINING WEST OF THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AND THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION IS
BELOW. STP

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UNCHANGED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS, BUT ADDED ONE FOR ZONE 450 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BUILDING W SWELL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED WITH A
BUILDING W SWELL ON THANKSGIVING, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE WEEKEND, AND SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES BUILDING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY WINDS SHOULD EASE AND BECOME
NORTHERLY AS A DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT OR THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS. AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY. BUT AGAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND DIFFERS BASED ON THE
MODELS. ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION,
STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 270550
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LATEST 00Z MODELS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN CRESCENT CITY AREA ABOUT 6-7AM. MODELS SAG
THIS FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REST OF DEL NORTE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS TRINIDAD BEFORE PULLING IT BACK
TO THE WEST. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE THOUGH IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM MUCH WETTER THAN GFS THOUGH TIMING OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON IS ABOUT THE SAME. VERY SHARP RAINFALL
GRADIENT WITH VERY WET NAM FORECASTING ABOUT 0.60 IN THIS AFTERNOON
PERIOD AT CRESCENT CITY WITH ALMOST 1.5 INCHES NEAR SMITH RIVER. GFS
SHOWING ONLY ABOUT 0.10 AT CRESCENT CITY WITH SMITH RIVER ABOUT
0.20. NAM AND GFS FLIPPED AS TO WHICH WOULD BE WETTER MODEL COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING WHICH SHOWS UNCERTAINITY IS JUST WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. WILL LEAVE GRIDDED FORECAST AS IS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
WHERE FRONT STALLS AS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE NAM WOULD GIVE LOCAL
STREET AND CREEK FLOODING. WILL UPDATE THE AVIATION FORECAST TO HOLD
OFF RAIN AT KACV AND KUKI UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST CA, IT LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE HONEYDEW IN THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT PUSHES BACK EAST THROUGH ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. DEAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 329 PM...VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
FRONTAL BAND JUST OUTSIDE 130W MOVING EASTWARD. GFS...ECMWF AND
NAM12 SHOW THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-
OREGON BORDER ON THU. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAIN
DEVELOPING IN DEL NORTE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THU WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN 12HRS. THE
ECMWF AND NAM12 HAVE BEEN MUCH LIGHTER...ABOUT 0.25IN PER THE ECMWF
AND ABOUT 0.15IN PER THE NAM12. LEANED TOWARD THE ECWMF AND
CNRFC/WPC QPF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS 0.50IN. IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. IF THE GFS PANS OUT THE
SMITH RIVER COULD RISE RAPIDLY TO MONITOR STAGE. SOME PRECIP MAY
FORM SOUTH OF DEL NORTE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE OR-CA BORDER THU NIGHT...BEFORE A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SAT
MORNING. THE STORM WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO BE ABOVE ALL THE MAJOR
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY; ABOVE 5500 TO 6000 FT THAT IS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL SKETCHY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING A SECONDARY RAMP UP IN RAIN RATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS. IT IS GOING TO
BE RAINY AND WET THROUGH SAT...SO ROCKSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES AND
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAIN ARRIVES. THE GFS ONCE
AGAIN WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE FASTEST WITH SPREADING RAIN
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE ECWMF WAS
ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS HEAVY ON THE RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE A LOT OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE NAM12 INDICATES STRONGER DRYING AND COOLING AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT EVENING. THE NAM12 SCENARIO
SEEMS UNLIKELY. IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT...SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING
DRY TOO. FOR NOW SIDED WITH SPECTRAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN SOGGY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING
AND DURATION OF THE RAIN ARE QUESTIONABLE AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE FROM RUN TO RUN ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE 0Z GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH WE
WILL SEE A FEW MORE BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN...MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOW FOR MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE STARTS TO
FALL OFF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS START TO PART
COMPANY AND GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. THE GFS HAS IT DRYING OUT BY
WED WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH WET WEATHER. AVERAGED THE TWO
MODELS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF RAIN OR NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 945 PM...HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15KT STREAMING OVER
AREA AHEAD OF FRONT. LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS AGAIN DEVELOPED IN FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKE THE TRINITY VALLEY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST BUT EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO START AT KCEC ABOUT 6-7 AM WITH VFR
CEILINGS. FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND LOOKING FOR MODERATE-
HEAVY RAIN AT KCEC WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 10 AM AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT PULLS BACK SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING BUT
CIGS AT KCEC WITH REMAIN MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CEILINGS EXCEPT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR RAIN
TO MOVE INTO KACV AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CIGS BECOME MVFR. DEAN

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 945 PM...NEARSHORE BUOYS REPORTED SEAS FROM 4 TO 7
FEET AS OF 04Z THIS EVENING. A WESTERLY SWELL WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS INCREASING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ABOUT 100 TO 125 NM OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY THUNDER
TO THE OUTER WATERS AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY REMAINING WEST OF THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AND THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION IS
BELOW. STP

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UNCHANGED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS, BUT ADDED ONE FOR ZONE 450 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BUILDING W SWELL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED WITH A
BUILDING W SWELL ON THANKSGIVING, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE WEEKEND, AND SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES BUILDING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY WINDS SHOULD EASE AND BECOME
NORTHERLY AS A DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT OR THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS. AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY. BUT AGAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND DIFFERS BASED ON THE
MODELS. ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION,
STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 262329
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTED TO THE EAST IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
FRONTAL BAND JUST OUTSIDE 130W MOVING EASTWARD. GFS...ECMWF AND
NAM12 SHOW THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA-OREGON BORDER ON THU. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RAIN DEVELOPING IN DEL NORTE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THU WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN 12HRS. THE
ECMWF AND NAM12 HAVE BEEN MUCH LIGHTER...ABOUT 0.25IN PER THE
ECMWF AND ABOUT 0.15IN PER THE NAM12. LEANED TOWARD THE ECWMF AND
CNRFC/WPC QPF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS 0.50IN. IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. IF THE GFS PANS OUT
THE SMITH RIVER COULD RISE RAPIDLY TO MONITOR STAGE. SOME PRECIP
MAY FORM SOUTH OF DEL NORTE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE OR-CA BORDER THU NIGHT...BEFORE A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SAT
MORNING. THE STORM WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO BE ABOVE ALL THE MAJOR
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY; ABOVE 5500 TO 6000 FT THAT IS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL SKETCHY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING A SECONDARY RAMP UP IN RAIN RATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS. IT IS GOING TO
BE RAINY AND WET THROUGH SAT...SO ROCKSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES AND
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAIN ARRIVES. THE GFS ONCE
AGAIN WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE FASTEST WITH SPREADING RAIN
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE ECWMF WAS
ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS HEAVY ON THE RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE A LOT OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE NAM12 INDICATES STRONGER DRYING AND COOLING AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT EVENING. THE NAM12 SCENARIO
SEEMS UNLIKELY. IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT...SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING
DRY TOO. FOR NOW SIDED WITH SPECTRAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN SOGGY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING
AND DURATION OF THE RAIN ARE QUESTIONABLE AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE FROM RUN TO RUN ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE 0Z GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH WE
WILL SEE A FEW MORE BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN...MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOW FOR MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE STARTS TO
FALL OFF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS START TO PART
COMPANY AND GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. THE GFS HAS IT DRYING OUT BY
WED WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH WET WEATHER. AVERAGED THE TWO
MODELS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF RAIN OR NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS PRODUCED
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS REGIONAL AIRPORTS TODAY AFTER PATCHY
MORNING LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. UKIAH...EUREKA/ARCATA
AND CRESCENT CITY AIRPORTS HAVE EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IS COMING TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS A SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST. AT CRESCENT CITY AND
ARCATA`S AIRPORT...THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL START LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES...AND RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A GENTLE SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NEAR 5 FT AND ARE MIXED WITH A LONGER
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE WEST AND BUILDING WIND WAVES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE 1745Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS ZONE 470 AND 10-
20 KT ACROSS ZONE 475. THIS MATCHED THE FORECAST AND INDICATES THE
SC.Y THAT JUST STARTED FOR ZONE 470 IS ON TRACK. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH FRIDAY. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UNCHANGED FOR THE OUTER WATERS, BUT
ADDED ONE FOR ZONE 450 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BUILDING W SWELL IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED WITH A BUILDING W SWELL ON
THANKSGIVING, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES BUILDING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WINDS SHOULD EASE AND BECOME NORTHERLY AS A
DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT OR THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AS WE GO
INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. BUT AGAIN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WIND DIFFERS BASED ON THE MODELS. ONCE AGAIN WENT
WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION, STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO HARD TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 261245
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
445 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO NORTHWESTERN CA TODAY. INLAND VALLEYS
ARE SEEING SOME THICK FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CLEAR OUT BY
MIDDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...FIVE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO THE AREA ONCE IT MOVES
ONSHORE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
RAINFALL STARTING IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY AND STALLING OUT OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY
AND MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. RAPID RIVERS
RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SMITH RIVER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH THIS FRONT...6000 TO 7000 FT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING THIS FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN MODELS...BUT IN GENERAL AMOUNT
LOOK TO BE MODERATE...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RIVER RISES...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SATURDAY THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND BRINGING
RAIN TO AREAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS CENTERS IT OVER
MENDOCINO COUNTY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE
SF BAY AREA. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THIS IS ABOUT
WHERE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS COMES TO AN END. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS STARTED TO CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT ONSHORE
ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS MUCH FASTER AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS IS ALSO SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
TRYING TO CUT OFF LIKE THE ECMWF...ALBEIT STILL MOVING IT THROUGH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STARTING ON MONDAY WITH
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE TENDENCY FOR
MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS VALLEY
FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST ERODE
BY LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILING AND SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE
MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
STEEPEST SEAS WILL BE OFFSHORE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MARINE ZONE 470 BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE WEAKER BUT SHOULD STILL
FLUCTUATE NEAR 20 KNOTS. A LARGE SW-W SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAUSING THE SEA STATE TO RISE TO AROUND
10 T0 13 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR MARINE ZONE 475
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BUILDING SEA STATE. I HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME BUT
THEY MAY BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE SWELL FOR TIMING
OF ANY SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
THUS LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE LATE IN THE FORECAST. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261245
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
445 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO NORTHWESTERN CA TODAY. INLAND VALLEYS
ARE SEEING SOME THICK FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CLEAR OUT BY
MIDDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...FIVE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO THE AREA ONCE IT MOVES
ONSHORE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
RAINFALL STARTING IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY AND STALLING OUT OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY
AND MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. RAPID RIVERS
RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SMITH RIVER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH THIS FRONT...6000 TO 7000 FT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING THIS FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN MODELS...BUT IN GENERAL AMOUNT
LOOK TO BE MODERATE...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RIVER RISES...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SATURDAY THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND BRINGING
RAIN TO AREAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS CENTERS IT OVER
MENDOCINO COUNTY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE
SF BAY AREA. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THIS IS ABOUT
WHERE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS COMES TO AN END. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS STARTED TO CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT ONSHORE
ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS MUCH FASTER AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS IS ALSO SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
TRYING TO CUT OFF LIKE THE ECMWF...ALBEIT STILL MOVING IT THROUGH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STARTING ON MONDAY WITH
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE TENDENCY FOR
MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS VALLEY
FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST ERODE
BY LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILING AND SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE
MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
STEEPEST SEAS WILL BE OFFSHORE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MARINE ZONE 470 BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE WEAKER BUT SHOULD STILL
FLUCTUATE NEAR 20 KNOTS. A LARGE SW-W SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAUSING THE SEA STATE TO RISE TO AROUND
10 T0 13 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR MARINE ZONE 475
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BUILDING SEA STATE. I HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME BUT
THEY MAY BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE SWELL FOR TIMING
OF ANY SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
THUS LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE LATE IN THE FORECAST. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 252307
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
307 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

...WET THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
IN TRINITY COUNTY...WILL PROBABLY SEE FOG AND LOW OVERCAST AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRATUS (AND PERHAPS FOG) THAT HAS BEEN
LURKING 10-15NM FROM SHORE WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY AS SE FLOW
INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER ALONG THE COAST TODAY THANKS
TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND
CLEARER SKIES HAS ALSO RESULTED IN HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PLACES LIKE KNEELAND AND YOLLA
BOLLA TOPPED OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS
IN THE TRINITY RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED INTO THE LOWER 50S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH AND MIDDLE LAYER CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THU AND PERHAPS IN THE INTERIOR OF
DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES BY THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OREGON
CALIFORNIA BORDER...SO MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN DEL NORTE AND FAR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING WITH
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD BACK OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY THRU
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BODES WELL FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN DEL NORTE COUNTY...BUT NOT SO WELL FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS RAIN RAMPING UP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE LENGTH TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. CONTINUOUS RAINFALL SHOULD
LET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA. STEADY RAIN WILL EXPAND WITH HIGHER RATES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AS STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST. SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR SHARP RISES ON RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREAKS AND FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROCK OR MUD SLIDES AS WELL AS LOCALIZED MINOR
STREET FLOODING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITS TO THE EAST AND
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE STORM THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING ABOVE
ALL THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA; ABOVE 5500 TO
6000 FT THAT IS. LEVELS WILL FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK, MON NIGHT AND
TUE. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL OFF TO SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT
ANY OF THE MAJOR HIGHWAY PASSES OF NW CALIFORNIA. //END

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE ONCE AGAIN FOUND ACROSS SOME OF
THE INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
REPORTED. VFR HAS PREVAILED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO HAZE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR TO
PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR
RIVER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG FORM. STP

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED MORNING THEN
BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER WAVE TRAIN ARRIVES. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STEEP
SOUTHERLY WAVES BUILD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WINDS EASING AND
VEERING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDING SEAS LATE
MONDAY. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 252307
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
307 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

...WET THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
IN TRINITY COUNTY...WILL PROBABLY SEE FOG AND LOW OVERCAST AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRATUS (AND PERHAPS FOG) THAT HAS BEEN
LURKING 10-15NM FROM SHORE WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY AS SE FLOW
INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER ALONG THE COAST TODAY THANKS
TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND
CLEARER SKIES HAS ALSO RESULTED IN HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PLACES LIKE KNEELAND AND YOLLA
BOLLA TOPPED OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS
IN THE TRINITY RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED INTO THE LOWER 50S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH AND MIDDLE LAYER CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THU AND PERHAPS IN THE INTERIOR OF
DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES BY THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OREGON
CALIFORNIA BORDER...SO MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN DEL NORTE AND FAR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING WITH
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD BACK OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY THRU
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BODES WELL FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN DEL NORTE COUNTY...BUT NOT SO WELL FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS RAIN RAMPING UP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE LENGTH TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. CONTINUOUS RAINFALL SHOULD
LET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA. STEADY RAIN WILL EXPAND WITH HIGHER RATES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AS STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST. SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR SHARP RISES ON RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREAKS AND FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROCK OR MUD SLIDES AS WELL AS LOCALIZED MINOR
STREET FLOODING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITS TO THE EAST AND
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE STORM THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING ABOVE
ALL THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA; ABOVE 5500 TO
6000 FT THAT IS. LEVELS WILL FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK, MON NIGHT AND
TUE. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL OFF TO SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT
ANY OF THE MAJOR HIGHWAY PASSES OF NW CALIFORNIA. //END

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE ONCE AGAIN FOUND ACROSS SOME OF
THE INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
REPORTED. VFR HAS PREVAILED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO HAZE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR TO
PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR
RIVER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG FORM. STP

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED MORNING THEN
BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER WAVE TRAIN ARRIVES. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STEEP
SOUTHERLY WAVES BUILD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WINDS EASING AND
VEERING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDING SEAS LATE
MONDAY. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 251246
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
446 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. INLAND
VALLEYS ARE SEEING SOME FOG AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE COAST HAS
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS KEEPING THEM MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT
WARMER. THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO WARM UP AGAIN TODAY ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND ARES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE COAST WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. THIS MAY CUT DOWN ON THE INLAND VALLEY
FOG AS WELL. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO LATE
IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER
APPROXIMATELY THE OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER. LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WHILE HEAVIER RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT AND THE
HEAVIER PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO OREGON. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE
ECMWF AND GEM PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER IN THE NORTH...BUT PUSHES
A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM. THIS FIRST
SYSTEM WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK
TO FALL IN A SHORT ENOUGH TIME FRAME TO BRING MUCH FLOODING. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THE WEEKEND THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME SHORT BREAKS...BUT AT THIS POINT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE OUT. RAIN LOOKS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
HEAVY PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME RIVERS TO MONITOR STAGE...BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THEY RECEDE AFTER THE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENT.
LOCALIZED LOWLAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

TUESDAY MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 6000 TO 8000
FT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP...BUT WILL START TO FALL WITH THIS LAST
SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3000 TO 4000 FT ON MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE SNOW LEVELS FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECK OF LOW
CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CA WITH VALLEY FOG
INLAND. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE AWAY BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE, EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DRYING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION, EXPECT A RETURN OF VALLEY FOG
FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AS THE
WEAKENING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD MAINTAINS A WEAK
GRADIENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A NORTHWESTERLY
WAVE GROUP SLOWLY SUBSIDES. THEN AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS REACHING TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR WINDS STEEP SEAS BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEWER MODEL RUNS
TO DETERMINE TIMING. A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WIND FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
OVERALL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND FLUCTUATE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS IS STILL HARD TO PIN POINT AT THIS
TIME. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 251246
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
446 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. INLAND
VALLEYS ARE SEEING SOME FOG AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE COAST HAS
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS KEEPING THEM MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT
WARMER. THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO WARM UP AGAIN TODAY ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND ARES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE COAST WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. THIS MAY CUT DOWN ON THE INLAND VALLEY
FOG AS WELL. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO LATE
IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER
APPROXIMATELY THE OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER. LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WHILE HEAVIER RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT AND THE
HEAVIER PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO OREGON. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE
ECMWF AND GEM PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER IN THE NORTH...BUT PUSHES
A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM. THIS FIRST
SYSTEM WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK
TO FALL IN A SHORT ENOUGH TIME FRAME TO BRING MUCH FLOODING. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THE WEEKEND THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME SHORT BREAKS...BUT AT THIS POINT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE OUT. RAIN LOOKS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
HEAVY PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME RIVERS TO MONITOR STAGE...BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THEY RECEDE AFTER THE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENT.
LOCALIZED LOWLAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

TUESDAY MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 6000 TO 8000
FT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP...BUT WILL START TO FALL WITH THIS LAST
SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3000 TO 4000 FT ON MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE SNOW LEVELS FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECK OF LOW
CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CA WITH VALLEY FOG
INLAND. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE AWAY BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE, EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DRYING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION, EXPECT A RETURN OF VALLEY FOG
FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AS THE
WEAKENING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD MAINTAINS A WEAK
GRADIENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A NORTHWESTERLY
WAVE GROUP SLOWLY SUBSIDES. THEN AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS REACHING TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR WINDS STEEP SEAS BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEWER MODEL RUNS
TO DETERMINE TIMING. A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WIND FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
OVERALL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND FLUCTUATE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS IS STILL HARD TO PIN POINT AT THIS
TIME. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




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