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000
FXUS66 KEKA 212320
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
320 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE E PAC. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SW-W FACING TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RIVER INFO.

SKIES MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE DAY ON MON...ALTHO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES MAY RETURN TO THE INTERIOR S OF CAPE MENDO PRIOR TO
SUNSET. REDUCED CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND ABUNDANT GROUND
MOISTURE WILL LEAD THE WAY TO VALLEY FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAIN IS PROGGED FOR WED...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT AREAS N OF CAPE MENDO...AND SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DROP WED NIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT AS SNOW LEVELS DROP...BUT AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. /SEC

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEARLY 1 FT
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RUN HIGH EARLY
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE COAST LATE MONDAY MORNING AS TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 9 FT. LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING THE
ARCATA BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON, CAN EXPECT MINOR SALT WATER
FLOODING. KML

&&

.AVIATION...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE
RAINFALL DIMINISHES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
AIRFIELDS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, KUKI HAS ALREADY OBSERVED LIFTING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MOST AIRFIELDS TO THE
NORTH WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD STILL EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
HOWEVER MORE SO IN THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE 18Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING INDICATING THAT THE WIND
FORECAST WAS AND REMAINS ON TRACK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
NOSING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. MEANWHILE, A LARGE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE SEA
STATE WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 TO 12 FEET EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THEN,
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS THE GRADIENT. THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT WILL POTENTIALLY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REACH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

BEYOND THAT MODELS HINT AT A BUILDING RIDGE BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO RELAX ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER,
DUE TO MODEL SPREAD THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WINDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DECAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KML

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SMITH RIVER APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...REMAINING SEVERAL FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
RISES ON THE MAD RIVER AT ARCATA HAVE SLOWED WITH A CREST LIKELY
SOON. AGAIN...THIS IS SEVERAL FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM TUE FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 211148
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WINTER BEGINS TODAY AT 3:03 PM THE TIME OF THE
WINTER SOLSTICE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OTHER AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WITH UP TO
1 INCH POSSIBLY OCCURRING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS WEEK. THEREFORE A REDUCTION IN
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF VALLEY FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT HOWEVER
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY,
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. EXPECT IFR TO PREVAIL TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO
CEILINGS. THOUGH, PERIODS OF LIFR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13-15 FT. THE MORNING ASCAT PASS MISSED OUR
WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS SHOW WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 20 KT THIS MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING, SO DROPPED THE SE.W AND SU.Y EARLIER THAN HEADLINED. THOSE
ARE REPLACED BY SC.Y`S, WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WITH UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDWEEK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WHILE THE INNER WATERS CAN EXPECT ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY DISTANT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 211148
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WINTER BEGINS TODAY AT 3:03 PM THE TIME OF THE
WINTER SOLSTICE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OTHER AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WITH UP TO
1 INCH POSSIBLY OCCURRING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS WEEK. THEREFORE A REDUCTION IN
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF VALLEY FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT HOWEVER
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY,
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. EXPECT IFR TO PREVAIL TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO
CEILINGS. THOUGH, PERIODS OF LIFR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13-15 FT. THE MORNING ASCAT PASS MISSED OUR
WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS SHOW WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 20 KT THIS MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING, SO DROPPED THE SE.W AND SU.Y EARLIER THAN HEADLINED. THOSE
ARE REPLACED BY SC.Y`S, WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WITH UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDWEEK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WHILE THE INNER WATERS CAN EXPECT ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY DISTANT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 202311
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
311 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. SOME
RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE TERRAIN
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY THE REGION OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE OR
AND N CA COAST. HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES...WHERE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST 18
HOURS OR SO. 18Z BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP H2O SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THE HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT POISED TO COME ASHORE N
CA AND EXTREME SW OR. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAINS MAY BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF OVER PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. HOWEVER...RAINS WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE...AND MORE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES.

ON SUN...RAINS WILL FURTHER DECREASE OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FAVORED LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WILL STILL
SEE CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE. STILL...12Z-00Z TOTALS MAY APPROACH 1 INCH ALONG SW FACING
TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.

RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON. SKIES MAY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE DAY...ALTHO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY
RETURN TO THE INTERIOR S OF CAPE MENDO PRIOR TO SUNSET. REDUCED
CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL
LEAD THE WAY TO VALLEY FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAIN IS PROGGED FOR WED...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT AREAS N OF CAPE MENDO...AND SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DROP WED NIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. /SEC

.HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A SLOWLY
DECAYING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CAUSES WAVES TO BREAK NEAR 22 FT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURF HEIGHTS SHALL DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT. NEVER THE LESS, THE DECAYING SWELL IS STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGER SETS OF WAVES THAT CAN WASH OVER JETTIES
AND ROCKS THIS WEEKEND. BEACH GOERS TAKE HEED AND STAY FARTHER BACK
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. KML

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIDES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS TIDES ARE EXPECTED
TO SURPASS 9 FT. AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY INCLUDING THE ARCATA
BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON CAN EXPECT MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING OF LOW
AREAS AROUND THE BAY. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIRFIELDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BRINING MVFR DOWN TO IFR. BREEZY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL EASE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN OBSTRUCTED OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR. IMPROVEMENT
WILL COME VERY SLOWLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS RAIN DECREASES
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE RAIN WILL PERSIST NORTH THE CAPE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE 17Z ASCAT PASS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWED FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A SMALL
CORE OF GALE WINDS NEAR POINT SAINT GEORGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SEAS, THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT HAS BEEN WAVERING BETWEEN
17 TO 20 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATING THESE
HIGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING THUS ALLOWING THE SEA
STATE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AS THE SWELL HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE THAN WHAT WAVE MODELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. ONCE THE
WARNING EXPIRES TONIGHT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
ALL ZONES OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LARGE BUT SLOWLY DECAYING SEA SATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK MEANING FRESH TO
MODERATE WINDS. HOWEVER, A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY HELPING TO KEEP AN ELEVATED SEA STATE
THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A PASSING TROUGH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 3 PM MON FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING TIL 6 PM THIS EVENING
      FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 202311
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
311 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. SOME
RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE TERRAIN
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY THE REGION OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE OR
AND N CA COAST. HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES...WHERE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST 18
HOURS OR SO. 18Z BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP H2O SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THE HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT POISED TO COME ASHORE N
CA AND EXTREME SW OR. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAINS MAY BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF OVER PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. HOWEVER...RAINS WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE...AND MORE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES.

ON SUN...RAINS WILL FURTHER DECREASE OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FAVORED LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WILL STILL
SEE CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE. STILL...12Z-00Z TOTALS MAY APPROACH 1 INCH ALONG SW FACING
TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.

RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON. SKIES MAY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE DAY...ALTHO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY
RETURN TO THE INTERIOR S OF CAPE MENDO PRIOR TO SUNSET. REDUCED
CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL
LEAD THE WAY TO VALLEY FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAIN IS PROGGED FOR WED...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT AREAS N OF CAPE MENDO...AND SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DROP WED NIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. /SEC

.HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A SLOWLY
DECAYING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CAUSES WAVES TO BREAK NEAR 22 FT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURF HEIGHTS SHALL DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT. NEVER THE LESS, THE DECAYING SWELL IS STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGER SETS OF WAVES THAT CAN WASH OVER JETTIES
AND ROCKS THIS WEEKEND. BEACH GOERS TAKE HEED AND STAY FARTHER BACK
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. KML

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIDES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS TIDES ARE EXPECTED
TO SURPASS 9 FT. AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY INCLUDING THE ARCATA
BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON CAN EXPECT MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING OF LOW
AREAS AROUND THE BAY. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIRFIELDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BRINING MVFR DOWN TO IFR. BREEZY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL EASE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN OBSTRUCTED OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR. IMPROVEMENT
WILL COME VERY SLOWLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS RAIN DECREASES
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE RAIN WILL PERSIST NORTH THE CAPE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE 17Z ASCAT PASS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWED FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A SMALL
CORE OF GALE WINDS NEAR POINT SAINT GEORGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SEAS, THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT HAS BEEN WAVERING BETWEEN
17 TO 20 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATING THESE
HIGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING THUS ALLOWING THE SEA
STATE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AS THE SWELL HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE THAN WHAT WAVE MODELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. ONCE THE
WARNING EXPIRES TONIGHT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
ALL ZONES OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LARGE BUT SLOWLY DECAYING SEA SATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK MEANING FRESH TO
MODERATE WINDS. HOWEVER, A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY HELPING TO KEEP AN ELEVATED SEA STATE
THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A PASSING TROUGH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 3 PM MON FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING TIL 6 PM THIS EVENING
      FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 201255
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
455 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY.  THEN...BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE INITIAL WARM FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
DEFINITELY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE OVER AN INCH HAS FALLEN FROM
5PM THROUGH 4AM. MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SUNDAY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN DEL NORTE COUNTY WITH VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE STILL IN SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL SHIFT ON SUNDAY BUT
GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3.5 INCHES IN THE HILLS OF DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE HUMBOLDT
BAY REGION. NO RIVER IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE STRENGTH OR DURATION COULD BRING SOME MINOR FLOODING
TO THE SMITH RIVER. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5000 FEET AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH
CONDITIONS STARTING TO DRY OUT. MONDAY IN THE NORTH SKIES WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE. ANY AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WILL LIKELY SEE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG. BY TUESDAY MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE GONE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM IN THESE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS
WELL AND THEY MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP AND IS QUITE A
BIT COLDER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION COULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS LOW AS 3500 FT IN TRINITY COUNTY...WHILE THE 00Z GFS WOULD
BRING A LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET. CONTINUED WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. AT
THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO CHOOSE A MODEL. THE GFS HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BOUNCE
AROUND. BOTH MODELS DO AGREE THAT ANY COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.

THURSDAY LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH IT
GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN AND IT WILL BE
DRY FOR CHRISTMAS. FRIDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
RIDGE BUILD IN AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY THE
GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THE CANADIAN ACTUALLY BRINGS A FRONT
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT GETS CLOSER.
MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT MVFR TO PREVAIL. THOUGH, PERIODS
OF IFR IS LIKELY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. ADDITIONALLY,
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WAVE HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 17-20 FT WITH MIXED SEAS, SHORT PERIOD WIND-
DRIVEN WAVES FROM THE SOUTH AND LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. THE
0535Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND WINDS OF 10-20 KT SOUTH OF IT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS MORNING, BUT DON`T EXPECT
THEM TO BE LONG ENOUGH IN TIME OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT A
GL.W. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS IS THE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY PEAKING. SWELL DECAY CALCULATIONS BASED ON
OFFSHORE BUOY #2 HAS THE SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TODAY. THESE
CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE SE.W (HAZ SEAS WARNING) AND SU.Y (HIGH
SURF ADVISORY) IS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
RESPECTIVELY. BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR BOTH
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IF THE LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW
OTHERWISE. SC.Y`S (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES) WILL THEN BE UP FOR
THE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WAVES TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND. THE SAME CAN BE SAID OF THE WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LIGHTER WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. THE CONSMODEL SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BE NEAR
GALES AGAIN TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS.

&&

.SURF ZONE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THIS
AFTERNOON FOR OUR ENTIRE COASTLINE. BREAKERS ARE LIKELY AROUND 22
TO 25 FT AT THE PRESENT TIME. THESE BREAKERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DROPPING TO 16 TO 21 FT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MKK/SEC

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AND WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER
THAN ASTRONOMICAL. THIS INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE MINOR SALT
WATER FLOODING IN KING SALMON AND IN THE ARCATA BOTTOMS. ALONG THE
COAST THAT IS NOT PROTECT BY THE BAY HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY PUSH
THE WATER LEVELS HIGHER. THIS MAY IMPACT AREAS IN THE CRESCENT
CITY HARBOR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE
HIGH SURF AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SOME WATER MAY REACH HWY 101 IN
THE EXPOSED AREAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE MENDOCINO
COUNTY COAST MAY ALSO SEE THE HIGH SURF PUSH WATER UP INTO LOW
LYING AREAS. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE CAMPGROUNDS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
AT THE COAST AND LOW LYING ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AND IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE...PEAKING ON MONDAY. HOWEVER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SO THE OVERALL MAY NOT INCREASE TOO
MUCH. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ001-002.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON PST
     TODAY FOR CAZ001.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR CAZ002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 201255
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
455 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY.  THEN...BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE INITIAL WARM FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
DEFINITELY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE OVER AN INCH HAS FALLEN FROM
5PM THROUGH 4AM. MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SUNDAY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN DEL NORTE COUNTY WITH VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE STILL IN SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL SHIFT ON SUNDAY BUT
GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3.5 INCHES IN THE HILLS OF DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE HUMBOLDT
BAY REGION. NO RIVER IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE STRENGTH OR DURATION COULD BRING SOME MINOR FLOODING
TO THE SMITH RIVER. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5000 FEET AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH
CONDITIONS STARTING TO DRY OUT. MONDAY IN THE NORTH SKIES WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE. ANY AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WILL LIKELY SEE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG. BY TUESDAY MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE GONE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM IN THESE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS
WELL AND THEY MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS MORE PRECIP AND IS QUITE A
BIT COLDER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION COULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
AS LOW AS 3500 FT IN TRINITY COUNTY...WHILE THE 00Z GFS WOULD
BRING A LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET. CONTINUED WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. AT
THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO CHOOSE A MODEL. THE GFS HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BOUNCE
AROUND. BOTH MODELS DO AGREE THAT ANY COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.

THURSDAY LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH IT
GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN AND IT WILL BE
DRY FOR CHRISTMAS. FRIDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
RIDGE BUILD IN AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY THE
GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THE CANADIAN ACTUALLY BRINGS A FRONT
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT GETS CLOSER.
MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT MVFR TO PREVAIL. THOUGH, PERIODS
OF IFR IS LIKELY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. ADDITIONALLY,
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WAVE HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 17-20 FT WITH MIXED SEAS, SHORT PERIOD WIND-
DRIVEN WAVES FROM THE SOUTH AND LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. THE
0535Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND WINDS OF 10-20 KT SOUTH OF IT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS MORNING, BUT DON`T EXPECT
THEM TO BE LONG ENOUGH IN TIME OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT A
GL.W. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS IS THE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY PEAKING. SWELL DECAY CALCULATIONS BASED ON
OFFSHORE BUOY #2 HAS THE SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TODAY. THESE
CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE SE.W (HAZ SEAS WARNING) AND SU.Y (HIGH
SURF ADVISORY) IS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
RESPECTIVELY. BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR BOTH
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IF THE LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW
OTHERWISE. SC.Y`S (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES) WILL THEN BE UP FOR
THE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WAVES TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND. THE SAME CAN BE SAID OF THE WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LIGHTER WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. THE CONSMODEL SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BE NEAR
GALES AGAIN TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS.

&&

.SURF ZONE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THIS
AFTERNOON FOR OUR ENTIRE COASTLINE. BREAKERS ARE LIKELY AROUND 22
TO 25 FT AT THE PRESENT TIME. THESE BREAKERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DROPPING TO 16 TO 21 FT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MKK/SEC

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AND WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER
THAN ASTRONOMICAL. THIS INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE MINOR SALT
WATER FLOODING IN KING SALMON AND IN THE ARCATA BOTTOMS. ALONG THE
COAST THAT IS NOT PROTECT BY THE BAY HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY PUSH
THE WATER LEVELS HIGHER. THIS MAY IMPACT AREAS IN THE CRESCENT
CITY HARBOR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE
HIGH SURF AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SOME WATER MAY REACH HWY 101 IN
THE EXPOSED AREAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE MENDOCINO
COUNTY COAST MAY ALSO SEE THE HIGH SURF PUSH WATER UP INTO LOW
LYING AREAS. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE CAMPGROUNDS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
AT THE COAST AND LOW LYING ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AND IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE...PEAKING ON MONDAY. HOWEVER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SO THE OVERALL MAY NOT INCREASE TOO
MUCH. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ001-002.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON PST
     TODAY FOR CAZ001.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR CAZ002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 192318
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
318 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THRU SUNDAY) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSED OVER THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LONG STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEE LINING IT TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS
EVENING WITH CONSTANT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL FOCUS MOST OF ITS ENERGY OVER
CENTRAL OREGON HOWEVER THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOOLS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING PWATS AND IVT VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
(ESPECIALLY DEL NORTE COUNTY). EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF THE CAPE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL GET ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER FOR THE NORTH. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE AND
NEARLY 4 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN TOTALS WILL DECREASE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND NEARLY 0.25
TO 1 INCH FOR EASTERN TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE CUTS
OFF THE MOISTURE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 5,000 FEET TONIGHT
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KML

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THRU FRIDAY) BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY
THE REGION OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT STORM IN SIGHT WILL DIVE
DOWN FROM THE BEARING SEA AND CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE
POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS DIFFERING OUTCOMES IN THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION BRINGING IT IN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF OUTCOME WOULD ALSO MEAN LOWER SNOW LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MODEL SPREAD AND THUS MAINTAINED ABOVE CLIMO POPS
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TAPERED TO BELOW CLIMO POPS BY FRIDAY AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS TREND TOWARDS BUILDING HEIGHTS. FURTHERMORE, WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POSSIBLILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSING OF THE TROUGH. AS OF
RIGHT NOW IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL. KML

&&

.AVIATION...AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...WILL TRANSITION FROM
SHOWERY WX THIS AFTERNOON TO INCREASING WARM FRONTAL RAINS THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS TODAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV. WINDS WILL INCREASE AT COASTAL TAF SITES
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT KCEC BY SAT MORNING.
/SEC

&&

.MARINE...SEA STATE WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY 2 LARGE WNW SWELL
TRAINS. THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA NOW WITH
PERIODS OVER 20 SECONDS. THIS HAS PROMPTED AN AREA-WIDE HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS S WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE N NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND S OFFSHORE WATERS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED 50% OF THE ZONES. FORERUNNERS
FROM THE 2ND SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY MON WITH 21 SECOND
PERIODS. /SEC

&&

.SURF ZONE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SAT
AFTERNOON FOR OUR ENTIRE COASTLINE. BREAKERS ARE LIKELY AROUND 22 FT
AT THE PRESENT TIME...RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. THESE BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED
TO FURTHER BUILD WITH SOME HEIGHTS REACHING 25 FT THIS EVENING.
BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SAT. /SEC

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING REACHED 8.7 FT WHICH
WAS 1.1 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED LEVEL. WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF
MINOR FLOODING IN KING SALMON NEAR THE RV PARK. EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT
WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW ISSUE PRODUCTS. IN ADDITION TO SALT
WATER FLOODING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY, LARGE SURF COINCIDING WITH THE
HIDE TIDE WILL ALLOW WAVES TO PUSH MUCH FARTHER UP BEACHES AND
POTENTIALLY IMPACT AREAS THAT TYPICALLY REMAIN DRY. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ410-450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 192318
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
318 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THRU SUNDAY) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSED OVER THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LONG STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEE LINING IT TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS
EVENING WITH CONSTANT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL FOCUS MOST OF ITS ENERGY OVER
CENTRAL OREGON HOWEVER THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOOLS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING PWATS AND IVT VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
(ESPECIALLY DEL NORTE COUNTY). EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF THE CAPE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL GET ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER FOR THE NORTH. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE AND
NEARLY 4 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN TOTALS WILL DECREASE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND NEARLY 0.25
TO 1 INCH FOR EASTERN TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE CUTS
OFF THE MOISTURE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 5,000 FEET TONIGHT
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KML

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THRU FRIDAY) BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY
THE REGION OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT STORM IN SIGHT WILL DIVE
DOWN FROM THE BEARING SEA AND CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE
POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS DIFFERING OUTCOMES IN THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION BRINGING IT IN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF OUTCOME WOULD ALSO MEAN LOWER SNOW LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MODEL SPREAD AND THUS MAINTAINED ABOVE CLIMO POPS
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TAPERED TO BELOW CLIMO POPS BY FRIDAY AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS TREND TOWARDS BUILDING HEIGHTS. FURTHERMORE, WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POSSIBLILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSING OF THE TROUGH. AS OF
RIGHT NOW IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL. KML

&&

.AVIATION...AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...WILL TRANSITION FROM
SHOWERY WX THIS AFTERNOON TO INCREASING WARM FRONTAL RAINS THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS TODAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV. WINDS WILL INCREASE AT COASTAL TAF SITES
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT KCEC BY SAT MORNING.
/SEC

&&

.MARINE...SEA STATE WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY 2 LARGE WNW SWELL
TRAINS. THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA NOW WITH
PERIODS OVER 20 SECONDS. THIS HAS PROMPTED AN AREA-WIDE HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS S WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE N NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND S OFFSHORE WATERS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED 50% OF THE ZONES. FORERUNNERS
FROM THE 2ND SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY MON WITH 21 SECOND
PERIODS. /SEC

&&

.SURF ZONE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SAT
AFTERNOON FOR OUR ENTIRE COASTLINE. BREAKERS ARE LIKELY AROUND 22 FT
AT THE PRESENT TIME...RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. THESE BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED
TO FURTHER BUILD WITH SOME HEIGHTS REACHING 25 FT THIS EVENING.
BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SAT. /SEC

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING REACHED 8.7 FT WHICH
WAS 1.1 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED LEVEL. WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF
MINOR FLOODING IN KING SALMON NEAR THE RV PARK. EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT
WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW ISSUE PRODUCTS. IN ADDITION TO SALT
WATER FLOODING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY, LARGE SURF COINCIDING WITH THE
HIDE TIDE WILL ALLOW WAVES TO PUSH MUCH FARTHER UP BEACHES AND
POTENTIALLY IMPACT AREAS THAT TYPICALLY REMAIN DRY. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ410-450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 191224
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
424 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS BEHIND IT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN. LOOK FOR A DRYING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
AS OF 230 AM THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED THROUGH EUREKA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
RANGING FROM 0.75 TO OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAVE BEEN OVER 6000 FEET. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP MODESTLY TO AROUND 5000 FEET AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE 1 TO 2 INCHES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL VARY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ENHANCE IT.

LATE TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START AS THE
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO INITIALLY
AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SO
TRENDED THE QPF AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE NEW MODELS...SLIGHTLY UP FROM
WHAT THE RFC HAD EARLY IN THE EVENT. NAEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL REMAINS AIMED AT DEL NORTE COUNTY FOR 18 HOURS. THIS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS RAIN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND MOVE BACK
NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO FLOODING
FORECAST FOR ANY RIVERS...HOWEVER A SLIGHT SHIFT IN INTENSITY OR
DURATION COULD BRING SOME MINOR FLOODING TO THE SMITH RIVER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTH TO
NEARLY 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE
THAT SOME COLD AIR MAY BE TRAPPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF
TRINITY COUNTY...BUT IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE AIRMASS WILL
NOT BE VERY COLD TO START OUT...THEREFOR THERE WILL BE NO COLD
AIR TO TRAP.

MONDAY THE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE IN DEL NORTE COUNTY AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE INLAND...ALTHOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
KEEP THE COAST PARTLY CLOUDY. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. CURRENT RUNS BOTH HAVE IT AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
MOVING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS BRINGS BOTH MORE
MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR. INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE
TRAJECTORY COULD RESULT IN A BIG DIFFERENCE TO THE WEATHER.
CURRENT MODELS BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AROUND 3000 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AND THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME QUESTIONS ON CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY THE CHILLY AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW THESE DAYS WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FRESH BREEZE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WAVE HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 9-10 FT WITH MIXED SEAS, SHORT
PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES FROM THE SOUTH AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ASCAT PASS JUST MISSED OUR WATERS
THIS MORNING. A FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND AND IN IT`S WAKE
WILL BE EASING WINDS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, A DISTANT STORM HAS
GENERATED A VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. OFFSHORE BUOY #2
STARTED REPORTING THIS SWELL AT 2 AM WITH A HEIGHT OF 17 FT AT 19
SECONDS. SWELL DECAY CALCULATIONS PUT THIS INITIALLY AROUND 15 FT
NEAR 20 SECONDS, ARRIVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO
BREAKERS APPROACHING 25 FT. WITH ONLY ONE HOUR OF OBSERVATIONS FROM
BUOY #2 AND THIS FORECAST DEADLINE AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WILL SEE HIGHER HEIGHTS REPORTED FROM THIS BUOY, UPGRADED
THE SE.A (HAZ SEAS WATCH) TO A SE.W (HAZ SEAS WARNING) AND LEFT
THE SU.Y UNCHANGED. EXPECT THIS LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL TO
RAPIDLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE REMNANT SHORT-
PERIOD WAVES FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A WARM FRONT BRINGING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT-
PERIOD WIND- DRIVEN SOUTHERLY WAVES TO THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS,
ESPECIALLY ZONE 470. ISSUED A SC.Y (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY) FOR
THIS ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WINDS, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS EXPANDED TO OTHER ZONES WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN ZONE 470 ALONG
WITH SHORT- PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVES APPROACHING 10 FT. BUT DON`T
FEEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ISSUE
A GL.A (GALE WATCH) WITH THIS PACKAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
WENT WITH THE CONSMODEL FOR THE WINDS AND LOADED THE NWPS.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 0.5 TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...WITH THE HIGHEST ANOMALIES AT THE NORTH
SPIT IN HUMBOLDT BAY. AT THE PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE THE NORTH SPIT WAS
1.24 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL. IF THIS PERSISTS AS EXPECTED IT WILL
PEAK AT 8.83 FT. AT THIS HEIGHT MINOR FLOODING STARTS TO OCCUR IN
LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY INCLUDING KING SALMON AND
JACKSON RANCH ROAD IN THE ARCATA BOTTOMS. SO HAVE ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IF THESE DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONSTANT....AS EXPECTED...OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY CONTINUE
AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
INCREASE.

ADDITIONALLY, LARGE SURF ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WAVES TO PUSH
FARTHER UP BEACHES AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT AREAS THAT TYPICALLY
REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ001-002.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR CAZ001.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 191224
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
424 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS BEHIND IT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN. LOOK FOR A DRYING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
AS OF 230 AM THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED THROUGH EUREKA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
RANGING FROM 0.75 TO OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAVE BEEN OVER 6000 FEET. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP MODESTLY TO AROUND 5000 FEET AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE 1 TO 2 INCHES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL VARY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ENHANCE IT.

LATE TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START AS THE
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO INITIALLY
AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SO
TRENDED THE QPF AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE NEW MODELS...SLIGHTLY UP FROM
WHAT THE RFC HAD EARLY IN THE EVENT. NAEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL REMAINS AIMED AT DEL NORTE COUNTY FOR 18 HOURS. THIS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS RAIN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND MOVE BACK
NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO FLOODING
FORECAST FOR ANY RIVERS...HOWEVER A SLIGHT SHIFT IN INTENSITY OR
DURATION COULD BRING SOME MINOR FLOODING TO THE SMITH RIVER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTH TO
NEARLY 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE
THAT SOME COLD AIR MAY BE TRAPPED IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF
TRINITY COUNTY...BUT IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE AIRMASS WILL
NOT BE VERY COLD TO START OUT...THEREFOR THERE WILL BE NO COLD
AIR TO TRAP.

MONDAY THE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE IN DEL NORTE COUNTY AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE INLAND...ALTHOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
KEEP THE COAST PARTLY CLOUDY. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. CURRENT RUNS BOTH HAVE IT AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
MOVING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS BRINGS BOTH MORE
MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR. INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE
TRAJECTORY COULD RESULT IN A BIG DIFFERENCE TO THE WEATHER.
CURRENT MODELS BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AROUND 3000 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AND THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME QUESTIONS ON CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY THE CHILLY AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW THESE DAYS WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FRESH BREEZE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WAVE HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 9-10 FT WITH MIXED SEAS, SHORT
PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES FROM THE SOUTH AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ASCAT PASS JUST MISSED OUR WATERS
THIS MORNING. A FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND AND IN IT`S WAKE
WILL BE EASING WINDS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, A DISTANT STORM HAS
GENERATED A VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. OFFSHORE BUOY #2
STARTED REPORTING THIS SWELL AT 2 AM WITH A HEIGHT OF 17 FT AT 19
SECONDS. SWELL DECAY CALCULATIONS PUT THIS INITIALLY AROUND 15 FT
NEAR 20 SECONDS, ARRIVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO
BREAKERS APPROACHING 25 FT. WITH ONLY ONE HOUR OF OBSERVATIONS FROM
BUOY #2 AND THIS FORECAST DEADLINE AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WILL SEE HIGHER HEIGHTS REPORTED FROM THIS BUOY, UPGRADED
THE SE.A (HAZ SEAS WATCH) TO A SE.W (HAZ SEAS WARNING) AND LEFT
THE SU.Y UNCHANGED. EXPECT THIS LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL TO
RAPIDLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE REMNANT SHORT-
PERIOD WAVES FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A WARM FRONT BRINGING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT-
PERIOD WIND- DRIVEN SOUTHERLY WAVES TO THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS,
ESPECIALLY ZONE 470. ISSUED A SC.Y (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY) FOR
THIS ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WINDS, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS EXPANDED TO OTHER ZONES WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN ZONE 470 ALONG
WITH SHORT- PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVES APPROACHING 10 FT. BUT DON`T
FEEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ISSUE
A GL.A (GALE WATCH) WITH THIS PACKAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
WENT WITH THE CONSMODEL FOR THE WINDS AND LOADED THE NWPS.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 0.5 TO 1.5 FT
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...WITH THE HIGHEST ANOMALIES AT THE NORTH
SPIT IN HUMBOLDT BAY. AT THE PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE THE NORTH SPIT WAS
1.24 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL. IF THIS PERSISTS AS EXPECTED IT WILL
PEAK AT 8.83 FT. AT THIS HEIGHT MINOR FLOODING STARTS TO OCCUR IN
LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY INCLUDING KING SALMON AND
JACKSON RANCH ROAD IN THE ARCATA BOTTOMS. SO HAVE ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IF THESE DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONSTANT....AS EXPECTED...OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY CONTINUE
AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
INCREASE.

ADDITIONALLY, LARGE SURF ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WAVES TO PUSH
FARTHER UP BEACHES AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT AREAS THAT TYPICALLY
REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ001-002.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR CAZ001.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 190349
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
749 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A
DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...EVENING RADAR INDICATES RAIN FILLING IN QUICKLY OFF THE
COAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE POPS THROUGH 10 PM. AFTER 10 PM POPS WERE ALREADY NEAR
100 PERCENT, SO NO INCREASE WAS NEEDED OR POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO
UPDATE WINDS AS THE FRONT HITS THE COAST AND WE GET AN IDEA OF HOW
STRONG THE WINDS ACTUALLY BECOME. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 333 PM PST...

SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO NW CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THRU SUNDAY)LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS BEGAN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT IMPACT NW CALIFORNIA
UNTIL AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS IT PASSES. STORM TOTALS ARE STILL LOOKING TO
AMOUNT TO 0.75-1.00 INCH OF RAIN WITH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT THUS MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE TRINITY
ALPS.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND ZONAL. THIS WILL SET UP FOR INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND DIMINISH INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS NEARING 2
INCHES ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY SATURDAY. I STILL REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AS MODELS TEND TO HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME NAILING WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THERE
WILL NO DOUBT BE RAIN IF ONLY ALONG THE OR/CA BORDER. THAT SAID I
DIDN`T FEEL A NEED TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES AND KEPT THE QPF
CLOSE TO THE RFC FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THRU THURSDAY) A LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP DRY THE REGION OUT FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY AN INSIDE SLIDER SETS UP AND SLIDES DOWN THE
PACIFIC NW CLIPPING THE NORTHERN AND NE PART OF THE EUREKA CWA. THE
CONCERN WITH THIS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
BRINGING SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE
IN THE LONG RANGE. KML

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN AS WELL AS LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO WHICH REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING. OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 25 KT. BEHIND THE FRONT A VERY LARGE
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 20
FEET AT 18 SECONDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL BRING AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SHOALING AND HAZARDOUS BAR CONDITIONS AT THE
ENTRANCE TO HARBORS. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WAVES AROUND 20 FEET. BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 25
FEET AS THE SWELL HITS THE COASTLINE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THERE STILL HAS NOT
BEEN A GOOD JASON-2 PASS THROUGH THE CORE OF THE WAVES NEAR THE LOW
IN THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA TO CONFIRM THE SWELL MAGNITUDE BUT
WESTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT HAVE OCCURRED FOR 24-36 HOURS WITH THE
STORM AND THE SWELL MAGNITUDE FROM THE ENP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE ON
TARGET. WE WILL HAVE INDISPUTABLE CONFIRMATION ONCE THE SWELL GOES
BY BUOY #2 FRIDAY MORNING...UNTIL THEN THE SWELL FORECAST HAS BEEN
BASED ON THE WAVE MODEL OUTPUT. WE DID RAMP UP THE SWELL HEIGHTS ON
SATURDAY BY 1-2 FT ABOVE THE MODEL OUTPUT. IT WILL STILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO VENTURE OUT TO THE BEACHES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THUS THE ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT OR NEAR GALE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
AREA SUN THROUGH TUE ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND NORTHERLY.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE NW
AROUND MID WEEK WHICH MAY GENERATE A BLAST OF N AND NW WINDS AS WELL
AS LARGE STEEP SEAS. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THEN WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY.

COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
PREDICTED LEVELS. IF THESE DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY AROUND
LOW LYING AREAS OF HUMBOLDT BAY. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE SURF ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WAVES TO PUSH FARTHER UP BEACHES
AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT AREAS THAT TYPICALLY REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY
MORNING MAY BE THE FIRST DAY OF MINOR FLOODING IF THE ANOMALY
REMAINS GREATER THAN 1 FOOT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDE
LEVELS BEFORE ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ410-450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 190349
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
749 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A
DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...EVENING RADAR INDICATES RAIN FILLING IN QUICKLY OFF THE
COAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE POPS THROUGH 10 PM. AFTER 10 PM POPS WERE ALREADY NEAR
100 PERCENT, SO NO INCREASE WAS NEEDED OR POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO
UPDATE WINDS AS THE FRONT HITS THE COAST AND WE GET AN IDEA OF HOW
STRONG THE WINDS ACTUALLY BECOME. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 333 PM PST...

SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO NW CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THRU SUNDAY)LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS BEGAN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT IMPACT NW CALIFORNIA
UNTIL AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS IT PASSES. STORM TOTALS ARE STILL LOOKING TO
AMOUNT TO 0.75-1.00 INCH OF RAIN WITH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT THUS MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE TRINITY
ALPS.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND ZONAL. THIS WILL SET UP FOR INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND DIMINISH INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS NEARING 2
INCHES ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY SATURDAY. I STILL REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AS MODELS TEND TO HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME NAILING WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THERE
WILL NO DOUBT BE RAIN IF ONLY ALONG THE OR/CA BORDER. THAT SAID I
DIDN`T FEEL A NEED TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES AND KEPT THE QPF
CLOSE TO THE RFC FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THRU THURSDAY) A LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP DRY THE REGION OUT FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY AN INSIDE SLIDER SETS UP AND SLIDES DOWN THE
PACIFIC NW CLIPPING THE NORTHERN AND NE PART OF THE EUREKA CWA. THE
CONCERN WITH THIS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
BRINGING SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE
IN THE LONG RANGE. KML

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN AS WELL AS LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO WHICH REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING. OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 25 KT. BEHIND THE FRONT A VERY LARGE
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 20
FEET AT 18 SECONDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL BRING AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SHOALING AND HAZARDOUS BAR CONDITIONS AT THE
ENTRANCE TO HARBORS. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WAVES AROUND 20 FEET. BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 25
FEET AS THE SWELL HITS THE COASTLINE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THERE STILL HAS NOT
BEEN A GOOD JASON-2 PASS THROUGH THE CORE OF THE WAVES NEAR THE LOW
IN THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA TO CONFIRM THE SWELL MAGNITUDE BUT
WESTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT HAVE OCCURRED FOR 24-36 HOURS WITH THE
STORM AND THE SWELL MAGNITUDE FROM THE ENP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE ON
TARGET. WE WILL HAVE INDISPUTABLE CONFIRMATION ONCE THE SWELL GOES
BY BUOY #2 FRIDAY MORNING...UNTIL THEN THE SWELL FORECAST HAS BEEN
BASED ON THE WAVE MODEL OUTPUT. WE DID RAMP UP THE SWELL HEIGHTS ON
SATURDAY BY 1-2 FT ABOVE THE MODEL OUTPUT. IT WILL STILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO VENTURE OUT TO THE BEACHES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THUS THE ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT OR NEAR GALE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
AREA SUN THROUGH TUE ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND NORTHERLY.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE NW
AROUND MID WEEK WHICH MAY GENERATE A BLAST OF N AND NW WINDS AS WELL
AS LARGE STEEP SEAS. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THEN WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY.

COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
PREDICTED LEVELS. IF THESE DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY AROUND
LOW LYING AREAS OF HUMBOLDT BAY. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE SURF ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WAVES TO PUSH FARTHER UP BEACHES
AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT AREAS THAT TYPICALLY REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY
MORNING MAY BE THE FIRST DAY OF MINOR FLOODING IF THE ANOMALY
REMAINS GREATER THAN 1 FOOT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDE
LEVELS BEFORE ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ410-450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 190349
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
749 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A
DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...EVENING RADAR INDICATES RAIN FILLING IN QUICKLY OFF THE
COAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE POPS THROUGH 10 PM. AFTER 10 PM POPS WERE ALREADY NEAR
100 PERCENT, SO NO INCREASE WAS NEEDED OR POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO
UPDATE WINDS AS THE FRONT HITS THE COAST AND WE GET AN IDEA OF HOW
STRONG THE WINDS ACTUALLY BECOME. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 333 PM PST...

SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO NW CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THRU SUNDAY)LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS BEGAN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT IMPACT NW CALIFORNIA
UNTIL AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS IT PASSES. STORM TOTALS ARE STILL LOOKING TO
AMOUNT TO 0.75-1.00 INCH OF RAIN WITH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT THUS MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE TRINITY
ALPS.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND ZONAL. THIS WILL SET UP FOR INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND DIMINISH INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS NEARING 2
INCHES ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY SATURDAY. I STILL REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AS MODELS TEND TO HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME NAILING WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THERE
WILL NO DOUBT BE RAIN IF ONLY ALONG THE OR/CA BORDER. THAT SAID I
DIDN`T FEEL A NEED TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES AND KEPT THE QPF
CLOSE TO THE RFC FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THRU THURSDAY) A LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP DRY THE REGION OUT FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY AN INSIDE SLIDER SETS UP AND SLIDES DOWN THE
PACIFIC NW CLIPPING THE NORTHERN AND NE PART OF THE EUREKA CWA. THE
CONCERN WITH THIS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
BRINGING SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE
IN THE LONG RANGE. KML

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN AS WELL AS LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO WHICH REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING. OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 25 KT. BEHIND THE FRONT A VERY LARGE
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 20
FEET AT 18 SECONDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL BRING AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SHOALING AND HAZARDOUS BAR CONDITIONS AT THE
ENTRANCE TO HARBORS. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WAVES AROUND 20 FEET. BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 25
FEET AS THE SWELL HITS THE COASTLINE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THERE STILL HAS NOT
BEEN A GOOD JASON-2 PASS THROUGH THE CORE OF THE WAVES NEAR THE LOW
IN THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA TO CONFIRM THE SWELL MAGNITUDE BUT
WESTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT HAVE OCCURRED FOR 24-36 HOURS WITH THE
STORM AND THE SWELL MAGNITUDE FROM THE ENP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE ON
TARGET. WE WILL HAVE INDISPUTABLE CONFIRMATION ONCE THE SWELL GOES
BY BUOY #2 FRIDAY MORNING...UNTIL THEN THE SWELL FORECAST HAS BEEN
BASED ON THE WAVE MODEL OUTPUT. WE DID RAMP UP THE SWELL HEIGHTS ON
SATURDAY BY 1-2 FT ABOVE THE MODEL OUTPUT. IT WILL STILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO VENTURE OUT TO THE BEACHES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THUS THE ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT OR NEAR GALE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
AREA SUN THROUGH TUE ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND NORTHERLY.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE NW
AROUND MID WEEK WHICH MAY GENERATE A BLAST OF N AND NW WINDS AS WELL
AS LARGE STEEP SEAS. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THEN WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY.

COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
PREDICTED LEVELS. IF THESE DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY AROUND
LOW LYING AREAS OF HUMBOLDT BAY. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE SURF ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WAVES TO PUSH FARTHER UP BEACHES
AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT AREAS THAT TYPICALLY REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY
MORNING MAY BE THE FIRST DAY OF MINOR FLOODING IF THE ANOMALY
REMAINS GREATER THAN 1 FOOT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDE
LEVELS BEFORE ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ410-450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 190349
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
749 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A
DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...EVENING RADAR INDICATES RAIN FILLING IN QUICKLY OFF THE
COAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE POPS THROUGH 10 PM. AFTER 10 PM POPS WERE ALREADY NEAR
100 PERCENT, SO NO INCREASE WAS NEEDED OR POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO
UPDATE WINDS AS THE FRONT HITS THE COAST AND WE GET AN IDEA OF HOW
STRONG THE WINDS ACTUALLY BECOME. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 333 PM PST...

SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO NW CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THRU SUNDAY)LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS BEGAN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT IMPACT NW CALIFORNIA
UNTIL AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS IT PASSES. STORM TOTALS ARE STILL LOOKING TO
AMOUNT TO 0.75-1.00 INCH OF RAIN WITH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT THUS MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE TRINITY
ALPS.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND ZONAL. THIS WILL SET UP FOR INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND DIMINISH INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS NEARING 2
INCHES ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY SATURDAY. I STILL REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AS MODELS TEND TO HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME NAILING WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THERE
WILL NO DOUBT BE RAIN IF ONLY ALONG THE OR/CA BORDER. THAT SAID I
DIDN`T FEEL A NEED TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES AND KEPT THE QPF
CLOSE TO THE RFC FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THRU THURSDAY) A LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP DRY THE REGION OUT FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY AN INSIDE SLIDER SETS UP AND SLIDES DOWN THE
PACIFIC NW CLIPPING THE NORTHERN AND NE PART OF THE EUREKA CWA. THE
CONCERN WITH THIS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
BRINGING SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE
IN THE LONG RANGE. KML

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN AS WELL AS LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO WHICH REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING. OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 25 KT. BEHIND THE FRONT A VERY LARGE
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 20
FEET AT 18 SECONDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL BRING AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SHOALING AND HAZARDOUS BAR CONDITIONS AT THE
ENTRANCE TO HARBORS. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WAVES AROUND 20 FEET. BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 22 AND 25
FEET AS THE SWELL HITS THE COASTLINE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THERE STILL HAS NOT
BEEN A GOOD JASON-2 PASS THROUGH THE CORE OF THE WAVES NEAR THE LOW
IN THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA TO CONFIRM THE SWELL MAGNITUDE BUT
WESTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT HAVE OCCURRED FOR 24-36 HOURS WITH THE
STORM AND THE SWELL MAGNITUDE FROM THE ENP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE ON
TARGET. WE WILL HAVE INDISPUTABLE CONFIRMATION ONCE THE SWELL GOES
BY BUOY #2 FRIDAY MORNING...UNTIL THEN THE SWELL FORECAST HAS BEEN
BASED ON THE WAVE MODEL OUTPUT. WE DID RAMP UP THE SWELL HEIGHTS ON
SATURDAY BY 1-2 FT ABOVE THE MODEL OUTPUT. IT WILL STILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO VENTURE OUT TO THE BEACHES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THUS THE ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT OR NEAR GALE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
AREA SUN THROUGH TUE ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND NORTHERLY.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE NW
AROUND MID WEEK WHICH MAY GENERATE A BLAST OF N AND NW WINDS AS WELL
AS LARGE STEEP SEAS. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THEN WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY.

COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
PREDICTED LEVELS. IF THESE DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY AROUND
LOW LYING AREAS OF HUMBOLDT BAY. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE SURF ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WAVES TO PUSH FARTHER UP BEACHES
AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT AREAS THAT TYPICALLY REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY
MORNING MAY BE THE FIRST DAY OF MINOR FLOODING IF THE ANOMALY
REMAINS GREATER THAN 1 FOOT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDE
LEVELS BEFORE ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ410-450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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