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000
FXUS66 KEKA 271015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
315 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRATUS IS NOW WELL ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST WITH
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG BRING REPORTED. AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
ALLOWING THE CEILINGS TO LIFT. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT MOST COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY. WITH THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST
INCREASING LIFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO OVER A FEW
HOUR PERIOD PRIMARILY FROM AROUND 3 PM TO 9 PM. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN HUMBOLDT BAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES/MOVES INLAND. WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING TOO STRONG THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY BREAK
APART...THUS RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IMPACTING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL...TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A 6 HOUR OR
SO WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE SITUATED IN NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME AND IN GENERAL MOST OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BELOW 15 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KUKI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 271015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
315 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRATUS IS NOW WELL ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST WITH
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG BRING REPORTED. AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
ALLOWING THE CEILINGS TO LIFT. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT MOST COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY. WITH THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST
INCREASING LIFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO OVER A FEW
HOUR PERIOD PRIMARILY FROM AROUND 3 PM TO 9 PM. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN HUMBOLDT BAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES/MOVES INLAND. WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING TOO STRONG THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY BREAK
APART...THUS RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IMPACTING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL...TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A 6 HOUR OR
SO WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE SITUATED IN NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME AND IN GENERAL MOST OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BELOW 15 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KUKI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 271015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
315 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRATUS IS NOW WELL ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST WITH
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG BRING REPORTED. AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
ALLOWING THE CEILINGS TO LIFT. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT MOST COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY. WITH THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST
INCREASING LIFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO OVER A FEW
HOUR PERIOD PRIMARILY FROM AROUND 3 PM TO 9 PM. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN HUMBOLDT BAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES/MOVES INLAND. WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING TOO STRONG THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY BREAK
APART...THUS RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IMPACTING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL...TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A 6 HOUR OR
SO WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE SITUATED IN NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME AND IN GENERAL MOST OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BELOW 15 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KUKI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 262237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FRONT JUST OUTSIDE 135W
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EAST TOWARD
THE NORCAL COAST. IT IS RUNNING INTO A LONG-WAVE RIDGE AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MODELS DO SHOW THIS DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH NW CAL BY
FRI EVENING...SO IT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT MISTY RAIN
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A TENTH IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500MB SHORT-WAVE SHEARING
APART AND SPLITTING FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS N-NW
FLOW INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. STRONGER NORTH
FLOW ON SAT SHOULD PRODUCE DEEPER MIXING AND BETTER CHANCES OF
CLEARING AT THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOLID MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ALSO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER FOR SAT WITH EACH RUN.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL REBUILD ON SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHT WARMING IN THE
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT-WAVE BRUSHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MON
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR DRY FORECAST FOR TUE
THROUGH THU.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS CLEARED OUT ANY STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST REMAINED INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
WEB CAMERAS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE ARE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK AND WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD
COVERAGE, HOWEVER, THIS WILL VARY ACROSS THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SO
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
FALL TO IFR AND LIFR LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH A WESTERLY
MID PERIOD WAVE AND A SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELL IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS. WINDS WILL EASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HOWEVER, THE SEA STATE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 10 FT AS A
WESTERLY WAVE SYSTEM PROPAGATES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 262237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FRONT JUST OUTSIDE 135W
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EAST TOWARD
THE NORCAL COAST. IT IS RUNNING INTO A LONG-WAVE RIDGE AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MODELS DO SHOW THIS DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH NW CAL BY
FRI EVENING...SO IT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT MISTY RAIN
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A TENTH IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500MB SHORT-WAVE SHEARING
APART AND SPLITTING FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS N-NW
FLOW INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. STRONGER NORTH
FLOW ON SAT SHOULD PRODUCE DEEPER MIXING AND BETTER CHANCES OF
CLEARING AT THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOLID MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ALSO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER FOR SAT WITH EACH RUN.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL REBUILD ON SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHT WARMING IN THE
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT-WAVE BRUSHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MON
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR DRY FORECAST FOR TUE
THROUGH THU.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS CLEARED OUT ANY STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST REMAINED INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
WEB CAMERAS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE ARE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK AND WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD
COVERAGE, HOWEVER, THIS WILL VARY ACROSS THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SO
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
FALL TO IFR AND LIFR LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH A WESTERLY
MID PERIOD WAVE AND A SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELL IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS. WINDS WILL EASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HOWEVER, THE SEA STATE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 10 FT AS A
WESTERLY WAVE SYSTEM PROPAGATES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 252222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TODAY SENDING THE BULK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WELL
TO OUR NORTH. 24HR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE 10-20F DEGREES WARMER
AT MANY INLAND AREAS...ALTHOUGH READINGS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 3PM. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THEN TO OUR EAST ON THU. INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE MORE DRYING AND WARMING TONIGHT AND THU AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE COAST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL NOT SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
THANKS TO A DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER AND GROWING STRATUS FIELD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WEAK NE AND E DRAINAGE FLOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE
COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
DEEPER LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL BE HARDER TO CLEAR OUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.

AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 150W WILL STEADILY HEAD EASTWARD THU THROUGH
FRI. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHEARING THIS TROUGH APART
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
WHAT TO DO WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ECWMF AND NAM12 WANT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE FRI EVENING...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION. ALL THE MODELS DO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS NW CAL BY EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE DO
SEE ANY PRECIP AT THE COAST...SUSPECT IT WILL BE SHALLOW IN
NATURE; MISTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO CREATE
WEAK INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN
DRIVEN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
SPRINGS BACK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD INTO MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN ZONES MON NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE CLIPPING THE AREA BY WED. FOR
NOW WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND WED. IT
IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARMTH TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ARRIVAL
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND PERHAPS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AT UKI. ALONG THE COAST...OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED
MARINE STRATUS SEVERAL MILES OUT TO SEA NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY REVERSE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHEN THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE...PARTICULARLY AT CEC...BUT MOST
LIKELY THEY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHEN THEY DO REACH THE
COAST...IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN PLACES THAT REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY SUBDUED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH ALL LOCAL BUOYS REGISTERING 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS AT 10
TO 11 SECONDS. FOR THE MOST PART THE SEA STATE AT THE BUOY SITES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IS DOMINATED BY LINGERING WESTERLY
SWELL AS WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY TO A
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...AREAS FROM ROUGHLY HUMBOLDT BAY
SOUTHWARD HAVE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED NORTHERLY FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY
VISIBLE SATELLITE SIGNATURES IN THE OFFSHORE STRATUS DECK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMMEDIATELY LEEWARD FROM CAPE
MENDOCINO...WHERE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. AS
A RESULT...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE LIKELY A BIT MORE NOTICEABLE IN
THIS AREA BUT STILL NOT MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY AT 10 TO 20 KTS ...BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
MODEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ADDITION TO A
SERIES OF REINFORCING MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS...AND AT A
MINIMUM ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 252222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TODAY SENDING THE BULK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WELL
TO OUR NORTH. 24HR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE 10-20F DEGREES WARMER
AT MANY INLAND AREAS...ALTHOUGH READINGS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 3PM. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THEN TO OUR EAST ON THU. INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE MORE DRYING AND WARMING TONIGHT AND THU AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE COAST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL NOT SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
THANKS TO A DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER AND GROWING STRATUS FIELD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WEAK NE AND E DRAINAGE FLOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE
COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
DEEPER LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL BE HARDER TO CLEAR OUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.

AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 150W WILL STEADILY HEAD EASTWARD THU THROUGH
FRI. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHEARING THIS TROUGH APART
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
WHAT TO DO WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ECWMF AND NAM12 WANT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE FRI EVENING...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION. ALL THE MODELS DO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS NW CAL BY EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE DO
SEE ANY PRECIP AT THE COAST...SUSPECT IT WILL BE SHALLOW IN
NATURE; MISTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO CREATE
WEAK INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN
DRIVEN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
SPRINGS BACK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD INTO MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN ZONES MON NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE CLIPPING THE AREA BY WED. FOR
NOW WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND WED. IT
IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARMTH TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ARRIVAL
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND PERHAPS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AT UKI. ALONG THE COAST...OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED
MARINE STRATUS SEVERAL MILES OUT TO SEA NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY REVERSE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHEN THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE...PARTICULARLY AT CEC...BUT MOST
LIKELY THEY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHEN THEY DO REACH THE
COAST...IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN PLACES THAT REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY SUBDUED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH ALL LOCAL BUOYS REGISTERING 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS AT 10
TO 11 SECONDS. FOR THE MOST PART THE SEA STATE AT THE BUOY SITES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IS DOMINATED BY LINGERING WESTERLY
SWELL AS WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY TO A
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...AREAS FROM ROUGHLY HUMBOLDT BAY
SOUTHWARD HAVE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED NORTHERLY FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY
VISIBLE SATELLITE SIGNATURES IN THE OFFSHORE STRATUS DECK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMMEDIATELY LEEWARD FROM CAPE
MENDOCINO...WHERE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. AS
A RESULT...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE LIKELY A BIT MORE NOTICEABLE IN
THIS AREA BUT STILL NOT MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY AT 10 TO 20 KTS ...BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
MODEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ADDITION TO A
SERIES OF REINFORCING MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS...AND AT A
MINIMUM ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 252222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TODAY SENDING THE BULK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WELL
TO OUR NORTH. 24HR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE 10-20F DEGREES WARMER
AT MANY INLAND AREAS...ALTHOUGH READINGS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 3PM. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THEN TO OUR EAST ON THU. INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE MORE DRYING AND WARMING TONIGHT AND THU AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE COAST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL NOT SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
THANKS TO A DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER AND GROWING STRATUS FIELD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WEAK NE AND E DRAINAGE FLOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE
COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
DEEPER LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL BE HARDER TO CLEAR OUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.

AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 150W WILL STEADILY HEAD EASTWARD THU THROUGH
FRI. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHEARING THIS TROUGH APART
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
WHAT TO DO WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ECWMF AND NAM12 WANT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE FRI EVENING...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION. ALL THE MODELS DO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS NW CAL BY EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE DO
SEE ANY PRECIP AT THE COAST...SUSPECT IT WILL BE SHALLOW IN
NATURE; MISTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO CREATE
WEAK INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN
DRIVEN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
SPRINGS BACK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD INTO MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN ZONES MON NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE CLIPPING THE AREA BY WED. FOR
NOW WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND WED. IT
IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARMTH TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ARRIVAL
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND PERHAPS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AT UKI. ALONG THE COAST...OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED
MARINE STRATUS SEVERAL MILES OUT TO SEA NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY REVERSE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHEN THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE...PARTICULARLY AT CEC...BUT MOST
LIKELY THEY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHEN THEY DO REACH THE
COAST...IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN PLACES THAT REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY SUBDUED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH ALL LOCAL BUOYS REGISTERING 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS AT 10
TO 11 SECONDS. FOR THE MOST PART THE SEA STATE AT THE BUOY SITES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IS DOMINATED BY LINGERING WESTERLY
SWELL AS WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY TO A
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...AREAS FROM ROUGHLY HUMBOLDT BAY
SOUTHWARD HAVE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED NORTHERLY FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY
VISIBLE SATELLITE SIGNATURES IN THE OFFSHORE STRATUS DECK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMMEDIATELY LEEWARD FROM CAPE
MENDOCINO...WHERE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. AS
A RESULT...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE LIKELY A BIT MORE NOTICEABLE IN
THIS AREA BUT STILL NOT MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY AT 10 TO 20 KTS ...BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
MODEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ADDITION TO A
SERIES OF REINFORCING MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS...AND AT A
MINIMUM ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 251039
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST
ALLOWING MOST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.
SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT IN
GENERAL SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT TODAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ALONG THE MENDOCINO
COAST. THUS SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COASTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY.

LATER TONIGHT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS WILL RETURN ALONG
THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTLINE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTS IN FOG DEVELOPING IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. THUS MANY
AREAS WILL SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...STRATUS
MAY BECOME COMPACTED AND STUCK ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE STRATUS PULLING BACK TO THE BEACH FOR NOW.
THE STRATUS/FOG WILL PUSH BACK INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL
VALLEYS AND BECOME POSSIBLY MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. THE INTERIOR MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. AND YES...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT ONCE AGAIN TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR
ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...TAF SITES ARE REPORTING MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS AROUND 7-8 FT. THE 436Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM CALM TO ABOUT 10 KT ACROSS OUR WATERS,
WHICH WAS WITHIN ABOUT 5 KT OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SHORT-
PERIOD SEAS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO, MEANING WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THERE.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ZONE 475 TONIGHT,
BUT THIS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. OTHERWISE,
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 20 KT AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK FRONT
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, CAUSING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST, CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 251039
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST
ALLOWING MOST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.
SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT IN
GENERAL SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT TODAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ALONG THE MENDOCINO
COAST. THUS SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COASTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY.

LATER TONIGHT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS WILL RETURN ALONG
THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTLINE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTS IN FOG DEVELOPING IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. THUS MANY
AREAS WILL SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...STRATUS
MAY BECOME COMPACTED AND STUCK ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE STRATUS PULLING BACK TO THE BEACH FOR NOW.
THE STRATUS/FOG WILL PUSH BACK INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL
VALLEYS AND BECOME POSSIBLY MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. THE INTERIOR MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. AND YES...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT ONCE AGAIN TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR
ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...TAF SITES ARE REPORTING MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS AROUND 7-8 FT. THE 436Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM CALM TO ABOUT 10 KT ACROSS OUR WATERS,
WHICH WAS WITHIN ABOUT 5 KT OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SHORT-
PERIOD SEAS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO, MEANING WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THERE.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ZONE 475 TONIGHT,
BUT THIS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. OTHERWISE,
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 20 KT AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK FRONT
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, CAUSING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST, CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 251039
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST
ALLOWING MOST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.
SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT IN
GENERAL SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT TODAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ALONG THE MENDOCINO
COAST. THUS SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COASTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY.

LATER TONIGHT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS WILL RETURN ALONG
THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTLINE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTS IN FOG DEVELOPING IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. THUS MANY
AREAS WILL SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...STRATUS
MAY BECOME COMPACTED AND STUCK ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE STRATUS PULLING BACK TO THE BEACH FOR NOW.
THE STRATUS/FOG WILL PUSH BACK INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL
VALLEYS AND BECOME POSSIBLY MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. THE INTERIOR MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. AND YES...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT ONCE AGAIN TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR
ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...TAF SITES ARE REPORTING MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS AROUND 7-8 FT. THE 436Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM CALM TO ABOUT 10 KT ACROSS OUR WATERS,
WHICH WAS WITHIN ABOUT 5 KT OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SHORT-
PERIOD SEAS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO, MEANING WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THERE.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ZONE 475 TONIGHT,
BUT THIS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. OTHERWISE,
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 20 KT AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK FRONT
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, CAUSING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST, CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 251039
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST
ALLOWING MOST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.
SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT IN
GENERAL SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT TODAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ALONG THE MENDOCINO
COAST. THUS SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COASTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY.

LATER TONIGHT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS WILL RETURN ALONG
THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTLINE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTS IN FOG DEVELOPING IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. THUS MANY
AREAS WILL SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...STRATUS
MAY BECOME COMPACTED AND STUCK ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE STRATUS PULLING BACK TO THE BEACH FOR NOW.
THE STRATUS/FOG WILL PUSH BACK INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL
VALLEYS AND BECOME POSSIBLY MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. THE INTERIOR MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. AND YES...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT ONCE AGAIN TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR
ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...TAF SITES ARE REPORTING MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS AROUND 7-8 FT. THE 436Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM CALM TO ABOUT 10 KT ACROSS OUR WATERS,
WHICH WAS WITHIN ABOUT 5 KT OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SHORT-
PERIOD SEAS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO, MEANING WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THERE.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ZONE 475 TONIGHT,
BUT THIS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. OTHERWISE,
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 20 KT AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK FRONT
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, CAUSING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST, CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 242237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH WED BRINGING WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON FRI AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NW CALIFORNIA. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANY RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. WITH RESIDUAL MOIST AIR NEAR MEAN
SEA LEVEL...SUSPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THUS WILL
BEEF UP THE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. IN THE INTERIOR...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM UP 15-20F
DEGREES ABOVE LATE MARCH NORMALS WED THROUGH FRI; MID 70S TO MID
80S. COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH WARMING ANY
DAY THIS WEEK AS MARINE STRATUS GRADUALLY TAKES HOLD THROUGH FRI.
INITIALLY MODEL X-SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A
MARINE LAYER ON WED. SO WED MAY BE THE SUNNIEST/WARMEST DAY AT THE
COAST. SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPING THU AND FRI. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC ON THU AND
INDICATE AFTERNOON CLEARING.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRI. ALL THREE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT...WITH PERHAPS A CLOSED LOW
FORMING SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE TO OUR SW. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HANDLING THIS SPLITTING TROUGH VERY WELL...SO WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SAT. THE LATEST RUNS HINT AT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER WONT BUY INTO THAT RIGHT
NOW. ON SUNDAY GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF PRECIP. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PERHAPS SOME
MORE LIGHT RAIN OPPORTUNITIES. CONFIDENCE HERE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. OVERALL
IT IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...RISING CEILINGS HAVE BROUGHT CONDITIONS TO VFR AT CEC
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR AT ACV AND UKI. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL STRATUS AT CEC
AND ACV...OR LACK THEREOF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT LOW CEILINGS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE REDWOOD
COAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD THESE WINDS DEVELOP...STRATUS
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED AT ACV EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE CALMED SUBSTANTIALLY AS
THEY BEGIN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY TO A NORTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN. WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS TODAY...SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE HOVERED AT AROUND 10 FEET AND 11 TO 12 SECONDS AT THE EEL
RIVER 17NM WSW AND NORTH SPIT BUOYS. MEANWHILE...THE CAPE
MENDOCINO AND POINT ARENA BUOYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT LOWER AT
AROUND 8 FEET 12 SECONDS...BUT HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED STEADY.
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...A
DOWNWARD TREND IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WIND WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND THE PERSISTENT
MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD SLOWLY DECAY.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE PREVIOSULY
MENTIONED WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED REPEATEDLY BY
ADDITIONAL 12 TO 14 SECOND WESTERLY SWELL GROUPS...AND AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON TRIVAL COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL SEA STATE
FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS...STARTING WITH THE WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  WHILE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS A LOCALIZED AREA LEEWARD FROM CAPE MENDOCINO...WHEN A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING JUST WHAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL LOOK LIKE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND AS A
RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS AND EXPECTED SEAS
REMAINS LOW.  STILL...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS IN
GENERAL AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 242237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH WED BRINGING WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON FRI AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NW CALIFORNIA. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANY RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. WITH RESIDUAL MOIST AIR NEAR MEAN
SEA LEVEL...SUSPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THUS WILL
BEEF UP THE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. IN THE INTERIOR...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM UP 15-20F
DEGREES ABOVE LATE MARCH NORMALS WED THROUGH FRI; MID 70S TO MID
80S. COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH WARMING ANY
DAY THIS WEEK AS MARINE STRATUS GRADUALLY TAKES HOLD THROUGH FRI.
INITIALLY MODEL X-SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A
MARINE LAYER ON WED. SO WED MAY BE THE SUNNIEST/WARMEST DAY AT THE
COAST. SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPING THU AND FRI. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC ON THU AND
INDICATE AFTERNOON CLEARING.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRI. ALL THREE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT...WITH PERHAPS A CLOSED LOW
FORMING SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE TO OUR SW. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HANDLING THIS SPLITTING TROUGH VERY WELL...SO WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SAT. THE LATEST RUNS HINT AT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER WONT BUY INTO THAT RIGHT
NOW. ON SUNDAY GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF PRECIP. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PERHAPS SOME
MORE LIGHT RAIN OPPORTUNITIES. CONFIDENCE HERE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. OVERALL
IT IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...RISING CEILINGS HAVE BROUGHT CONDITIONS TO VFR AT CEC
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR AT ACV AND UKI. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL STRATUS AT CEC
AND ACV...OR LACK THEREOF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT LOW CEILINGS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE REDWOOD
COAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD THESE WINDS DEVELOP...STRATUS
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED AT ACV EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE CALMED SUBSTANTIALLY AS
THEY BEGIN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY TO A NORTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN. WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS TODAY...SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE HOVERED AT AROUND 10 FEET AND 11 TO 12 SECONDS AT THE EEL
RIVER 17NM WSW AND NORTH SPIT BUOYS. MEANWHILE...THE CAPE
MENDOCINO AND POINT ARENA BUOYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT LOWER AT
AROUND 8 FEET 12 SECONDS...BUT HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED STEADY.
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...A
DOWNWARD TREND IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WIND WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND THE PERSISTENT
MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD SLOWLY DECAY.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE PREVIOSULY
MENTIONED WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED REPEATEDLY BY
ADDITIONAL 12 TO 14 SECOND WESTERLY SWELL GROUPS...AND AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON TRIVAL COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL SEA STATE
FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS...STARTING WITH THE WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  WHILE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS A LOCALIZED AREA LEEWARD FROM CAPE MENDOCINO...WHEN A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING JUST WHAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL LOOK LIKE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND AS A
RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS AND EXPECTED SEAS
REMAINS LOW.  STILL...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS IN
GENERAL AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 242237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH WED BRINGING WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON FRI AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NW CALIFORNIA. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANY RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. WITH RESIDUAL MOIST AIR NEAR MEAN
SEA LEVEL...SUSPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THUS WILL
BEEF UP THE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. IN THE INTERIOR...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM UP 15-20F
DEGREES ABOVE LATE MARCH NORMALS WED THROUGH FRI; MID 70S TO MID
80S. COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH WARMING ANY
DAY THIS WEEK AS MARINE STRATUS GRADUALLY TAKES HOLD THROUGH FRI.
INITIALLY MODEL X-SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A
MARINE LAYER ON WED. SO WED MAY BE THE SUNNIEST/WARMEST DAY AT THE
COAST. SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPING THU AND FRI. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC ON THU AND
INDICATE AFTERNOON CLEARING.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRI. ALL THREE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT...WITH PERHAPS A CLOSED LOW
FORMING SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE TO OUR SW. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HANDLING THIS SPLITTING TROUGH VERY WELL...SO WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SAT. THE LATEST RUNS HINT AT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER WONT BUY INTO THAT RIGHT
NOW. ON SUNDAY GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF PRECIP. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PERHAPS SOME
MORE LIGHT RAIN OPPORTUNITIES. CONFIDENCE HERE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. OVERALL
IT IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...RISING CEILINGS HAVE BROUGHT CONDITIONS TO VFR AT CEC
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR AT ACV AND UKI. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL STRATUS AT CEC
AND ACV...OR LACK THEREOF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT LOW CEILINGS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE REDWOOD
COAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD THESE WINDS DEVELOP...STRATUS
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED AT ACV EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE CALMED SUBSTANTIALLY AS
THEY BEGIN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY TO A NORTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN. WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS TODAY...SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE HOVERED AT AROUND 10 FEET AND 11 TO 12 SECONDS AT THE EEL
RIVER 17NM WSW AND NORTH SPIT BUOYS. MEANWHILE...THE CAPE
MENDOCINO AND POINT ARENA BUOYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT LOWER AT
AROUND 8 FEET 12 SECONDS...BUT HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED STEADY.
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...A
DOWNWARD TREND IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WIND WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND THE PERSISTENT
MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD SLOWLY DECAY.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE PREVIOSULY
MENTIONED WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED REPEATEDLY BY
ADDITIONAL 12 TO 14 SECOND WESTERLY SWELL GROUPS...AND AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON TRIVAL COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL SEA STATE
FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS...STARTING WITH THE WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  WHILE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS A LOCALIZED AREA LEEWARD FROM CAPE MENDOCINO...WHEN A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING JUST WHAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL LOOK LIKE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND AS A
RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS AND EXPECTED SEAS
REMAINS LOW.  STILL...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS IN
GENERAL AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




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