Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS66 KEKA 272217
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
317 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...UPPER RIDGING HAS
BEGUN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY STARTING A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG
THE COAST WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION
AS THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHIFTS
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR STARTING TUESDAY WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH DECREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF OF THE COASTAL RIDGES.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD
DETAILS). SOME INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH 110 F BY
WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. COASTAL STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES
WEAK AND THE WINDS TURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST.
LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
MEANDER AROUND WEST OF 130W THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH OFFSHORE
COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE PARKED OVER THE DESERT SW...WILL PLACE
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS REASONABLE CERTAINTY
THAT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MID LEVEL HUMIDITY AND PWATS
NEAR 1 INCH NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRI INTO SAT. CONFIDENCE WE
WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS ON FRIDAY REMAINS LOW WITH A STABLE MID
LAYER PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY
BETTER ON SAT AND SUN...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO GO
OVERBOARD WITH CONVECTION THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR STORMS OUT TOWARD THE COAST AND PERHAPS NOCTURNAL STORMS.
THUS WILL NOT RAMP UP THE TSTM COVERAGE OR PRECIP CHANCES SAT OR SUN
JUST YET. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IF THE STRATUS
DOES NOT COME BACK HARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WERE FOUND FROM CAPE MENDOCINO TO
HUMBOLDT BAY AND NORTHWARD TO KCEC THIS MORNING...BUT HAD SCOURED
OUT AS OF 18Z. GUSTY NNW WINDS AT KCEC AND KACV WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS AT KCEC STAYING UP LONGER THAN KACV. OFFSHORE
FLOW SHOULD KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS MOSTLY FREE OF ANY CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
VC THE EEL RIVER DELTA. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. STP

&&

.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING TOWARD THE COAST WILL BRING NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...20-60NM. WINDS INSIDE
10NM WILL BE BREEZY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD LAY DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH BUILDS OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO AROUND 9 TO 12 FEET AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS INSIDE 10NM HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE AND SHOULD
REACH 7 TO 9 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 7-9 SECONDS TONIGHT. GRADIENTS
START TO RELAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON TUE...SO WILL NOT
EXTEND THE GALE WARNING FOR PZZ475 AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PZZ455. GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR THE
ORCA BORDER AND WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ROBUST TUE INTO TUE
EVENING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDO MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF SEAS RAMP UP AND PERIODS FALL BELOW 10
SECONDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD WED THROUGH FRI AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP ACROSS THE BOARD. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE MENDO COAST ON WED AND THU WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
RAPID ACCELERATIONS AROUND PT ARENA. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH INFORMATION TO BOOST THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THAT TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING HAS BEGUN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY CAUSING LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR ON THE UPPER SLOPES
AND RIDGES...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS...HIGHEST
ACROSS FIRE ZONES 203 AND 204 WHERE THE WINDS LOOK TO BE
STRONGEST. LOWER SLOPES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MODERATE
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR ZONES 203 AND 204 FOR 09Z-18Z TUESDAY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500
FEET. ALSO ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME AREAS FROM
06Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS LOOK SLIGHTLY WEAKER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WORSE THAN
TONIGHT.

FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THRU MID-WEEK WITH POOR NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES PERSISTING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY. SEC/STP

&&

.CLIMATE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND RECORDS FOR TUE AND WED...

LOCATION             TUESDAY      WEDNESDAY
-------------------- ------------ ------------
EUREKA (EKA)         73 (69/2000) 71 (68/1940)
CRESCENT CITY (CEC)  73 (72/2000) 71 (72/2000)

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ003.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CAZ003.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 272217
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
317 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...UPPER RIDGING HAS
BEGUN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY STARTING A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG
THE COAST WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION
AS THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHIFTS
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR STARTING TUESDAY WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH DECREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF OF THE COASTAL RIDGES.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD
DETAILS). SOME INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH 110 F BY
WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. COASTAL STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES
WEAK AND THE WINDS TURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST.
LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
MEANDER AROUND WEST OF 130W THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH OFFSHORE
COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE PARKED OVER THE DESERT SW...WILL PLACE
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS REASONABLE CERTAINTY
THAT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MID LEVEL HUMIDITY AND PWATS
NEAR 1 INCH NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRI INTO SAT. CONFIDENCE WE
WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS ON FRIDAY REMAINS LOW WITH A STABLE MID
LAYER PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY
BETTER ON SAT AND SUN...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO GO
OVERBOARD WITH CONVECTION THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR STORMS OUT TOWARD THE COAST AND PERHAPS NOCTURNAL STORMS.
THUS WILL NOT RAMP UP THE TSTM COVERAGE OR PRECIP CHANCES SAT OR SUN
JUST YET. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IF THE STRATUS
DOES NOT COME BACK HARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WERE FOUND FROM CAPE MENDOCINO TO
HUMBOLDT BAY AND NORTHWARD TO KCEC THIS MORNING...BUT HAD SCOURED
OUT AS OF 18Z. GUSTY NNW WINDS AT KCEC AND KACV WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS AT KCEC STAYING UP LONGER THAN KACV. OFFSHORE
FLOW SHOULD KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS MOSTLY FREE OF ANY CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
VC THE EEL RIVER DELTA. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. STP

&&

.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING TOWARD THE COAST WILL BRING NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...20-60NM. WINDS INSIDE
10NM WILL BE BREEZY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD LAY DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH BUILDS OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO AROUND 9 TO 12 FEET AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS INSIDE 10NM HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE AND SHOULD
REACH 7 TO 9 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 7-9 SECONDS TONIGHT. GRADIENTS
START TO RELAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON TUE...SO WILL NOT
EXTEND THE GALE WARNING FOR PZZ475 AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PZZ455. GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR THE
ORCA BORDER AND WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ROBUST TUE INTO TUE
EVENING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDO MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF SEAS RAMP UP AND PERIODS FALL BELOW 10
SECONDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD WED THROUGH FRI AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP ACROSS THE BOARD. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE MENDO COAST ON WED AND THU WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
RAPID ACCELERATIONS AROUND PT ARENA. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH INFORMATION TO BOOST THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THAT TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING HAS BEGUN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY CAUSING LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR ON THE UPPER SLOPES
AND RIDGES...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS...HIGHEST
ACROSS FIRE ZONES 203 AND 204 WHERE THE WINDS LOOK TO BE
STRONGEST. LOWER SLOPES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MODERATE
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR ZONES 203 AND 204 FOR 09Z-18Z TUESDAY FOR AREAS ABOVE 3500
FEET. ALSO ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME AREAS FROM
06Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS LOOK SLIGHTLY WEAKER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WORSE THAN
TONIGHT.

FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THRU MID-WEEK WITH POOR NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES PERSISTING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY. SEC/STP

&&

.CLIMATE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND RECORDS FOR TUE AND WED...

LOCATION             TUESDAY      WEDNESDAY
-------------------- ------------ ------------
EUREKA (EKA)         73 (69/2000) 71 (68/1940)
CRESCENT CITY (CEC)  73 (72/2000) 71 (72/2000)

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ003.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CAZ003.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271205
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
505 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE REDWOOD COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RAPIDLY LATER THIS MORNING.
WARMER...DRIER...AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
1ST HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND FILLS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE S PLAINS BUILDS W. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID-WEEK. OVER
THE INTERIOR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 110 ON WED AND
THU AFTERNOONS.

MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AS OFFSHORE WINDS
KEEP THE COASTAL NORTHERLIES AT BAY AND BRING DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM
THE INLAND TERRAIN. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS MAX TEMPERATURES BRING
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 70S AT KACV FOR TUE...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE
POSSIBLE. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE ACHIEVED AT CEC AND EKA. HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP ALONG THE COAST TO MATCH. HAVE KEPT
READINGS FOR EKA IN THE LOWER 70S DUE TO FORECAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS
BEING E VS SE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL POINT
FORECASTS AND RECORDS AND THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION OF WINDS AND RH.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO WARM FOR WED. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONGER
FOR WED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY THEN. AS A RESULT...ONLY NUDGED MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST UP
ABOUT A DEGREE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BAGGY UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EPAC LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE SW
US RIDGE WILL KEEP READINGS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTENING S
FLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR FROM THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO
AREAS BETWEEN CAPE MENDOCINO AND POINT SAINT GEORGE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED IT TO PENETRATE
RATHER FAR INTO THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT MVR TO PERIODICALLY
IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT ACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT CEC THIS MORNING DUE TO MARINE STRATUS. A BIT
OF GROUND FOG MAY ALSO BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
CEC AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE COAST CLEAR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. BREEZY NNW WINDS ARE LIKELY AT CEC THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE HELD RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE 20 TO 25KT NORTHERLIES HAVE PERSISTED.
LIKEWISE...SEAS HAVE BEEN HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH
SIG WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET AT 7 TO 8 SECONDS. WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE RELAXED ELSEWHERE BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20 KT AND WAVES AT AROUND 6
TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS. A 3 TO 5 FOOT...11 SECOND
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE WATERS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...A PACIFIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING INLAND THERMAL TROUGH TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
SPEEDS CLOSER TO SHORE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 TO
12 FEET AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. AS
SUCH...GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN VALID...ALTHOUGH
THE START TIMES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO START SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT 11
AM TODAY. ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
TO BE ADEQUATE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME HAZ SEAS
CRITERIA WAVES AROUND CAPE MENOCINO AND IN THE VICINITY OF POINT
SAINT GEORGE.

THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING THROUGHOUT BY WED...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG AT LEAST THE MENDOCINO COAST.
WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP. /BRC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INTERIOR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE DECLINE AS WELL WITH POOR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FUELS TO CONTINUE TO DRY. LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
FIRE WX CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN FIRE WX ZONES 203 AND 204.
DUE TO MARGINAL FUEL MOISTURE...HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A
HEADLINE IN THE FWF. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE
AFTER CONFERRING WITH REDDING FOR POSSIBLE SHORT FUSE WARNING.

FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THRU MID-WEEK WITH POOR NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES PERSISTING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE TUE INTO WED. /SEC

&&

.CLIMATE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND RECORDS FOR TUE AND WED...

LOCATION             TUESDAY      WEDNESDAY
-------------------- ------------ ------------
EUREKA (EKA)         72 (69/2000) 71 (68/1940)
CRESCENT CITY (CEC)  73 (72/2000) 71 (72/2000)

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM TUE
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM TUE
     FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM TUE
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271205
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
505 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE REDWOOD COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RAPIDLY LATER THIS MORNING.
WARMER...DRIER...AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
1ST HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND FILLS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE S PLAINS BUILDS W. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID-WEEK. OVER
THE INTERIOR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 110 ON WED AND
THU AFTERNOONS.

MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AS OFFSHORE WINDS
KEEP THE COASTAL NORTHERLIES AT BAY AND BRING DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM
THE INLAND TERRAIN. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS MAX TEMPERATURES BRING
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 70S AT KACV FOR TUE...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE
POSSIBLE. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE ACHIEVED AT CEC AND EKA. HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP ALONG THE COAST TO MATCH. HAVE KEPT
READINGS FOR EKA IN THE LOWER 70S DUE TO FORECAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS
BEING E VS SE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL POINT
FORECASTS AND RECORDS AND THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION OF WINDS AND RH.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO WARM FOR WED. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONGER
FOR WED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY THEN. AS A RESULT...ONLY NUDGED MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST UP
ABOUT A DEGREE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BAGGY UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EPAC LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE SW
US RIDGE WILL KEEP READINGS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTENING S
FLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR FROM THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO
AREAS BETWEEN CAPE MENDOCINO AND POINT SAINT GEORGE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED IT TO PENETRATE
RATHER FAR INTO THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT MVR TO PERIODICALLY
IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT ACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT CEC THIS MORNING DUE TO MARINE STRATUS. A BIT
OF GROUND FOG MAY ALSO BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
CEC AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE COAST CLEAR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. BREEZY NNW WINDS ARE LIKELY AT CEC THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE HELD RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE 20 TO 25KT NORTHERLIES HAVE PERSISTED.
LIKEWISE...SEAS HAVE BEEN HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH
SIG WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET AT 7 TO 8 SECONDS. WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE RELAXED ELSEWHERE BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20 KT AND WAVES AT AROUND 6
TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS. A 3 TO 5 FOOT...11 SECOND
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE WATERS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...A PACIFIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING INLAND THERMAL TROUGH TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
SPEEDS CLOSER TO SHORE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 TO
12 FEET AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. AS
SUCH...GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN VALID...ALTHOUGH
THE START TIMES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO START SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT 11
AM TODAY. ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
TO BE ADEQUATE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME HAZ SEAS
CRITERIA WAVES AROUND CAPE MENOCINO AND IN THE VICINITY OF POINT
SAINT GEORGE.

THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING THROUGHOUT BY WED...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG AT LEAST THE MENDOCINO COAST.
WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP. /BRC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INTERIOR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE DECLINE AS WELL WITH POOR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FUELS TO CONTINUE TO DRY. LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
FIRE WX CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN FIRE WX ZONES 203 AND 204.
DUE TO MARGINAL FUEL MOISTURE...HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A
HEADLINE IN THE FWF. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE
AFTER CONFERRING WITH REDDING FOR POSSIBLE SHORT FUSE WARNING.

FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THRU MID-WEEK WITH POOR NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES PERSISTING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE TUE INTO WED. /SEC

&&

.CLIMATE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND RECORDS FOR TUE AND WED...

LOCATION             TUESDAY      WEDNESDAY
-------------------- ------------ ------------
EUREKA (EKA)         72 (69/2000) 71 (68/1940)
CRESCENT CITY (CEC)  73 (72/2000) 71 (72/2000)

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM TUE
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM TUE
     FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM TUE
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 271205
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
505 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE REDWOOD COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RAPIDLY LATER THIS MORNING.
WARMER...DRIER...AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
1ST HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND FILLS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE S PLAINS BUILDS W. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID-WEEK. OVER
THE INTERIOR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 110 ON WED AND
THU AFTERNOONS.

MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AS OFFSHORE WINDS
KEEP THE COASTAL NORTHERLIES AT BAY AND BRING DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM
THE INLAND TERRAIN. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS MAX TEMPERATURES BRING
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 70S AT KACV FOR TUE...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE
POSSIBLE. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE ACHIEVED AT CEC AND EKA. HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP ALONG THE COAST TO MATCH. HAVE KEPT
READINGS FOR EKA IN THE LOWER 70S DUE TO FORECAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS
BEING E VS SE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL POINT
FORECASTS AND RECORDS AND THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION OF WINDS AND RH.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO WARM FOR WED. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONGER
FOR WED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY THEN. AS A RESULT...ONLY NUDGED MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST UP
ABOUT A DEGREE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BAGGY UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EPAC LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE SW
US RIDGE WILL KEEP READINGS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTENING S
FLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR FROM THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO
AREAS BETWEEN CAPE MENDOCINO AND POINT SAINT GEORGE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED IT TO PENETRATE
RATHER FAR INTO THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT MVR TO PERIODICALLY
IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT ACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT CEC THIS MORNING DUE TO MARINE STRATUS. A BIT
OF GROUND FOG MAY ALSO BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
CEC AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE COAST CLEAR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. BREEZY NNW WINDS ARE LIKELY AT CEC THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE HELD RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE 20 TO 25KT NORTHERLIES HAVE PERSISTED.
LIKEWISE...SEAS HAVE BEEN HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH
SIG WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET AT 7 TO 8 SECONDS. WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE RELAXED ELSEWHERE BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20 KT AND WAVES AT AROUND 6
TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS. A 3 TO 5 FOOT...11 SECOND
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE WATERS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...A PACIFIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING INLAND THERMAL TROUGH TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
SPEEDS CLOSER TO SHORE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 TO
12 FEET AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. AS
SUCH...GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN VALID...ALTHOUGH
THE START TIMES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO START SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT 11
AM TODAY. ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
TO BE ADEQUATE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME HAZ SEAS
CRITERIA WAVES AROUND CAPE MENOCINO AND IN THE VICINITY OF POINT
SAINT GEORGE.

THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING THROUGHOUT BY WED...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG AT LEAST THE MENDOCINO COAST.
WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP. /BRC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INTERIOR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE DECLINE AS WELL WITH POOR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FUELS TO CONTINUE TO DRY. LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
FIRE WX CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN FIRE WX ZONES 203 AND 204.
DUE TO MARGINAL FUEL MOISTURE...HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A
HEADLINE IN THE FWF. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE
AFTER CONFERRING WITH REDDING FOR POSSIBLE SHORT FUSE WARNING.

FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THRU MID-WEEK WITH POOR NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES PERSISTING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE TUE INTO WED. /SEC

&&

.CLIMATE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND RECORDS FOR TUE AND WED...

LOCATION             TUESDAY      WEDNESDAY
-------------------- ------------ ------------
EUREKA (EKA)         72 (69/2000) 71 (68/1940)
CRESCENT CITY (CEC)  73 (72/2000) 71 (72/2000)

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM TUE
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM TUE
     FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM TUE
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 271205
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
505 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE REDWOOD COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RAPIDLY LATER THIS MORNING.
WARMER...DRIER...AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
1ST HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND FILLS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE S PLAINS BUILDS W. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID-WEEK. OVER
THE INTERIOR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 110 ON WED AND
THU AFTERNOONS.

MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW TONIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AS OFFSHORE WINDS
KEEP THE COASTAL NORTHERLIES AT BAY AND BRING DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM
THE INLAND TERRAIN. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS MAX TEMPERATURES BRING
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 70S AT KACV FOR TUE...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE
POSSIBLE. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE ACHIEVED AT CEC AND EKA. HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP ALONG THE COAST TO MATCH. HAVE KEPT
READINGS FOR EKA IN THE LOWER 70S DUE TO FORECAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS
BEING E VS SE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL POINT
FORECASTS AND RECORDS AND THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION OF WINDS AND RH.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO WARM FOR WED. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONGER
FOR WED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY THEN. AS A RESULT...ONLY NUDGED MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST UP
ABOUT A DEGREE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BAGGY UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EPAC LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE SW
US RIDGE WILL KEEP READINGS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTENING S
FLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR FROM THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO
AREAS BETWEEN CAPE MENDOCINO AND POINT SAINT GEORGE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED IT TO PENETRATE
RATHER FAR INTO THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT MVR TO PERIODICALLY
IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT ACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT CEC THIS MORNING DUE TO MARINE STRATUS. A BIT
OF GROUND FOG MAY ALSO BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
CEC AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE COAST CLEAR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. BREEZY NNW WINDS ARE LIKELY AT CEC THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE HELD RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE 20 TO 25KT NORTHERLIES HAVE PERSISTED.
LIKEWISE...SEAS HAVE BEEN HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH
SIG WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET AT 7 TO 8 SECONDS. WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE RELAXED ELSEWHERE BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20 KT AND WAVES AT AROUND 6
TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS. A 3 TO 5 FOOT...11 SECOND
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE WATERS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...A PACIFIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH A
STRENGTHENING INLAND THERMAL TROUGH TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
SPEEDS CLOSER TO SHORE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 TO
12 FEET AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. AS
SUCH...GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN VALID...ALTHOUGH
THE START TIMES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO START SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT 11
AM TODAY. ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR
TO BE ADEQUATE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME HAZ SEAS
CRITERIA WAVES AROUND CAPE MENOCINO AND IN THE VICINITY OF POINT
SAINT GEORGE.

THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING THROUGHOUT BY WED...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG AT LEAST THE MENDOCINO COAST.
WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP. /BRC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INTERIOR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE DECLINE AS WELL WITH POOR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FUELS TO CONTINUE TO DRY. LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
FIRE WX CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN FIRE WX ZONES 203 AND 204.
DUE TO MARGINAL FUEL MOISTURE...HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A
HEADLINE IN THE FWF. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE
AFTER CONFERRING WITH REDDING FOR POSSIBLE SHORT FUSE WARNING.

FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THRU MID-WEEK WITH POOR NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES PERSISTING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE TUE INTO WED. /SEC

&&

.CLIMATE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND RECORDS FOR TUE AND WED...

LOCATION             TUESDAY      WEDNESDAY
-------------------- ------------ ------------
EUREKA (EKA)         72 (69/2000) 71 (68/1940)
CRESCENT CITY (CEC)  73 (72/2000) 71 (72/2000)

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM TUE
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM TUE
     FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM TUE
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 262227
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
327 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR
INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE INCREASED FORCING LED TO A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE
KLAMATH AND TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS UP TO WILLOW CREEK AND ORLEANS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT...ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK...A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SISKIYOU
MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-
FORM ALONG THE COAST AGAIN THIS EVENING AS BL RH INCREASES. AREAS
ALONG THE DEL NORTE COAST MAY STAY FAIRLY CLEAR AS DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP OVERNIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION STARTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SKY COVER WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION AS THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHIFTS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MID LAYER (700-500MB) HUMIDITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. THE LATEST ECMWF
WAS VERY SIMILAR. THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING AN IMPULSE SKIRTING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IMPULSE MAY HELP TO PRODUCE OR
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS...FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT THE GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR FRI THROUGH
SUN AS THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN WARM IN
THE INTERIOR WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS PENETRATED DEEP INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAKING IT INTO THE TRINITY AND KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS HAD SCOURED OUT OF MOST AREAS AS OF 20Z WITH
CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE BL RH WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE AT KACV WHILE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP KCEC FREE OF ANY LONG TERM
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS OR VSBYS. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. STP

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES EASTWARD AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT ST GEORGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH GALES
LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS...10-60NM OFFSHORE. THUS CONVERTED THE
GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470 AND EXPANDED IT TO PZZ475.
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...REACHING 12 TO 13 FT BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE IN THE OUTER WATERS. ALSO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH SEAS LIKELY
REACHING OUR STEEPNESS CRITERIA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT
WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGHOUT BY WED. THE LATEST NAM12 EVEN
INDICATES WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. FOR NOW WILL BLEND SOME OF THE NAM INTO
THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN.
WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IN
THE COMING DAYS AND STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...CONTINUING TO DRY THE FUELS. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE STRONGER...MODELS
INDICATE THE WORST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST
TOWARDS THE COAST. WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT HEADLINED IN THE FIRE WX FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FUTURE FIRE WX
PRODUCTS. BRC/STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 262227
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
327 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR
INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE INCREASED FORCING LED TO A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE
KLAMATH AND TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS UP TO WILLOW CREEK AND ORLEANS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT...ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK...A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SISKIYOU
MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-
FORM ALONG THE COAST AGAIN THIS EVENING AS BL RH INCREASES. AREAS
ALONG THE DEL NORTE COAST MAY STAY FAIRLY CLEAR AS DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP OVERNIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION STARTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SKY COVER WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION AS THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHIFTS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MID LAYER (700-500MB) HUMIDITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. THE LATEST ECMWF
WAS VERY SIMILAR. THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING AN IMPULSE SKIRTING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IMPULSE MAY HELP TO PRODUCE OR
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS...FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT THE GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR FRI THROUGH
SUN AS THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN WARM IN
THE INTERIOR WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS PENETRATED DEEP INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAKING IT INTO THE TRINITY AND KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS HAD SCOURED OUT OF MOST AREAS AS OF 20Z WITH
CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE BL RH WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE AT KACV WHILE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP KCEC FREE OF ANY LONG TERM
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS OR VSBYS. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. STP

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES EASTWARD AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT ST GEORGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH GALES
LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS...10-60NM OFFSHORE. THUS CONVERTED THE
GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470 AND EXPANDED IT TO PZZ475.
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...REACHING 12 TO 13 FT BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE IN THE OUTER WATERS. ALSO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH SEAS LIKELY
REACHING OUR STEEPNESS CRITERIA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT
WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGHOUT BY WED. THE LATEST NAM12 EVEN
INDICATES WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. FOR NOW WILL BLEND SOME OF THE NAM INTO
THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN.
WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IN
THE COMING DAYS AND STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...CONTINUING TO DRY THE FUELS. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE STRONGER...MODELS
INDICATE THE WORST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST
TOWARDS THE COAST. WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT HEADLINED IN THE FIRE WX FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FUTURE FIRE WX
PRODUCTS. BRC/STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 262227
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
327 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR
INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE INCREASED FORCING LED TO A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE
KLAMATH AND TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS UP TO WILLOW CREEK AND ORLEANS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT...ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK...A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SISKIYOU
MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-
FORM ALONG THE COAST AGAIN THIS EVENING AS BL RH INCREASES. AREAS
ALONG THE DEL NORTE COAST MAY STAY FAIRLY CLEAR AS DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP OVERNIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION STARTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SKY COVER WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION AS THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHIFTS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MID LAYER (700-500MB) HUMIDITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. THE LATEST ECMWF
WAS VERY SIMILAR. THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING AN IMPULSE SKIRTING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IMPULSE MAY HELP TO PRODUCE OR
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS...FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT THE GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR FRI THROUGH
SUN AS THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN WARM IN
THE INTERIOR WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS PENETRATED DEEP INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAKING IT INTO THE TRINITY AND KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS HAD SCOURED OUT OF MOST AREAS AS OF 20Z WITH
CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE BL RH WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE AT KACV WHILE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP KCEC FREE OF ANY LONG TERM
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS OR VSBYS. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. STP

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES EASTWARD AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT ST GEORGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH GALES
LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS...10-60NM OFFSHORE. THUS CONVERTED THE
GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470 AND EXPANDED IT TO PZZ475.
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...REACHING 12 TO 13 FT BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE IN THE OUTER WATERS. ALSO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH SEAS LIKELY
REACHING OUR STEEPNESS CRITERIA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT
WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGHOUT BY WED. THE LATEST NAM12 EVEN
INDICATES WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. FOR NOW WILL BLEND SOME OF THE NAM INTO
THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN.
WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IN
THE COMING DAYS AND STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...CONTINUING TO DRY THE FUELS. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE STRONGER...MODELS
INDICATE THE WORST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST
TOWARDS THE COAST. WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT HEADLINED IN THE FIRE WX FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FUTURE FIRE WX
PRODUCTS. BRC/STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 262227
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
327 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR
INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE INCREASED FORCING LED TO A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE
KLAMATH AND TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS UP TO WILLOW CREEK AND ORLEANS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT...ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK...A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SISKIYOU
MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-
FORM ALONG THE COAST AGAIN THIS EVENING AS BL RH INCREASES. AREAS
ALONG THE DEL NORTE COAST MAY STAY FAIRLY CLEAR AS DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP OVERNIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION STARTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SKY COVER WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION AS THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHIFTS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MID LAYER (700-500MB) HUMIDITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. THE LATEST ECMWF
WAS VERY SIMILAR. THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING AN IMPULSE SKIRTING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IMPULSE MAY HELP TO PRODUCE OR
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS...FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT THE GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR FRI THROUGH
SUN AS THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN WARM IN
THE INTERIOR WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS PENETRATED DEEP INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAKING IT INTO THE TRINITY AND KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS HAD SCOURED OUT OF MOST AREAS AS OF 20Z WITH
CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE BL RH WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE AT KACV WHILE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP KCEC FREE OF ANY LONG TERM
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS OR VSBYS. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. STP

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES EASTWARD AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT ST GEORGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH GALES
LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS...10-60NM OFFSHORE. THUS CONVERTED THE
GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470 AND EXPANDED IT TO PZZ475.
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...REACHING 12 TO 13 FT BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE IN THE OUTER WATERS. ALSO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH SEAS LIKELY
REACHING OUR STEEPNESS CRITERIA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT
WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGHOUT BY WED. THE LATEST NAM12 EVEN
INDICATES WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. FOR NOW WILL BLEND SOME OF THE NAM INTO
THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN.
WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IN
THE COMING DAYS AND STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...CONTINUING TO DRY THE FUELS. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE STRONGER...MODELS
INDICATE THE WORST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST
TOWARDS THE COAST. WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT HEADLINED IN THE FIRE WX FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FUTURE FIRE WX
PRODUCTS. BRC/STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 261122 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
422 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY
WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY...WHILE
PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SET TO IMPACT NW CA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PRIMARILY THE TRINITY
HORN AND PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WHILE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THEM FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS BEFORE THEY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DEEP AND HAS
PENETRATED INLAND QUITE A WAYS THIS MORNING...STRATUS IS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AND GENERALLY CONCENTRATED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ALONG
THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR NICELY IN
MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH DUE IN PART TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH 70 DEGREES IN EUREKA AND CRESCENT CITY ON ONE OR MORE DAYS
THIS WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAY ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND LIKEWISE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS ALWAYS...THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AT THIS STAGE...AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVED.
ONE PERSISTENT THEME IN THE PAST FEW GFS SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SUBTLE
IMPULSE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE WATERS. WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS TO THESE AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS FARTHER WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO A
FEATURE SO SMALL AND STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO WILL REFRAIN
FROM MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET A BIT CLOSER AND
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN OVER THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. MORE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE WRF MODEL APPEARS THE HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. CLOUDINESS OVER LAND SHOULD THIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
DAY...SPREADING INLAND WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN FIRE REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE HUMBOLDT AND SE DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES BACK SE AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROF STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLIES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE S WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT
ST GEORGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH
GALES LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORTER DURATION OVER THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL BUILD IN KIND WITH 12 TO 13 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE. HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINES UNCHANGED FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
OFFSHORE BY TUE AND WED WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY AS WELL. WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THUS...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. THE LAST
FUELS ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE LEVELS AND ERCS WERE AT
ABOUT AVERAGE LEVELS...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL SINCE
THEN...THEY HAVE LIKELY DRIED SOME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261122 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
422 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY
WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY...WHILE
PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SET TO IMPACT NW CA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PRIMARILY THE TRINITY
HORN AND PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WHILE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THEM FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS BEFORE THEY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DEEP AND HAS
PENETRATED INLAND QUITE A WAYS THIS MORNING...STRATUS IS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AND GENERALLY CONCENTRATED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ALONG
THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR NICELY IN
MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH DUE IN PART TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH 70 DEGREES IN EUREKA AND CRESCENT CITY ON ONE OR MORE DAYS
THIS WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAY ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND LIKEWISE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS ALWAYS...THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AT THIS STAGE...AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVED.
ONE PERSISTENT THEME IN THE PAST FEW GFS SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SUBTLE
IMPULSE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE WATERS. WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS TO THESE AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS FARTHER WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO A
FEATURE SO SMALL AND STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO WILL REFRAIN
FROM MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET A BIT CLOSER AND
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN OVER THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. MORE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE WRF MODEL APPEARS THE HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. CLOUDINESS OVER LAND SHOULD THIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
DAY...SPREADING INLAND WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN FIRE REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE HUMBOLDT AND SE DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES BACK SE AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROF STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLIES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE S WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT
ST GEORGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH
GALES LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORTER DURATION OVER THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL BUILD IN KIND WITH 12 TO 13 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE. HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINES UNCHANGED FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
OFFSHORE BY TUE AND WED WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY AS WELL. WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THUS...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. THE LAST
FUELS ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE LEVELS AND ERCS WERE AT
ABOUT AVERAGE LEVELS...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL SINCE
THEN...THEY HAVE LIKELY DRIED SOME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 261122 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
422 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY
WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY...WHILE
PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SET TO IMPACT NW CA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PRIMARILY THE TRINITY
HORN AND PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WHILE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THEM FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS BEFORE THEY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DEEP AND HAS
PENETRATED INLAND QUITE A WAYS THIS MORNING...STRATUS IS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AND GENERALLY CONCENTRATED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ALONG
THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR NICELY IN
MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH DUE IN PART TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH 70 DEGREES IN EUREKA AND CRESCENT CITY ON ONE OR MORE DAYS
THIS WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAY ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND LIKEWISE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS ALWAYS...THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AT THIS STAGE...AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVED.
ONE PERSISTENT THEME IN THE PAST FEW GFS SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SUBTLE
IMPULSE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE WATERS. WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS TO THESE AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS FARTHER WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO A
FEATURE SO SMALL AND STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO WILL REFRAIN
FROM MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET A BIT CLOSER AND
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN OVER THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. MORE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE WRF MODEL APPEARS THE HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. CLOUDINESS OVER LAND SHOULD THIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
DAY...SPREADING INLAND WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN FIRE REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE HUMBOLDT AND SE DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES BACK SE AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROF STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLIES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE S WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT
ST GEORGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH
GALES LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORTER DURATION OVER THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL BUILD IN KIND WITH 12 TO 13 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE. HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINES UNCHANGED FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
OFFSHORE BY TUE AND WED WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY AS WELL. WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THUS...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. THE LAST
FUELS ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE LEVELS AND ERCS WERE AT
ABOUT AVERAGE LEVELS...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL SINCE
THEN...THEY HAVE LIKELY DRIED SOME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 261122 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
422 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY
WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY...WHILE
PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SET TO IMPACT NW CA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PRIMARILY THE TRINITY
HORN AND PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WHILE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THEM FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS BEFORE THEY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DEEP AND HAS
PENETRATED INLAND QUITE A WAYS THIS MORNING...STRATUS IS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AND GENERALLY CONCENTRATED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ALONG
THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR NICELY IN
MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH DUE IN PART TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH 70 DEGREES IN EUREKA AND CRESCENT CITY ON ONE OR MORE DAYS
THIS WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAY ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND LIKEWISE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS ALWAYS...THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AT THIS STAGE...AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVED.
ONE PERSISTENT THEME IN THE PAST FEW GFS SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SUBTLE
IMPULSE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE WATERS. WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS TO THESE AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS FARTHER WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO A
FEATURE SO SMALL AND STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO WILL REFRAIN
FROM MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET A BIT CLOSER AND
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN OVER THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. MORE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE WRF MODEL APPEARS THE HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. CLOUDINESS OVER LAND SHOULD THIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
DAY...SPREADING INLAND WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN FIRE REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE HUMBOLDT AND SE DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES BACK SE AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROF STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLIES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE S WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT
ST GEORGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH
GALES LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORTER DURATION OVER THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL BUILD IN KIND WITH 12 TO 13 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE. HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINES UNCHANGED FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
OFFSHORE BY TUE AND WED WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY AS WELL. WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THUS...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. THE LAST
FUELS ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE LEVELS AND ERCS WERE AT
ABOUT AVERAGE LEVELS...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL SINCE
THEN...THEY HAVE LIKELY DRIED SOME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261122
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
422 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...


&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY...WHILE
PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SET TO IMPACT NW CA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PRIMARILY THE TRINITY
HORN AND PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WHILE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THEM FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS BEFORE THEY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DEEP AND HAS
PENETRATED INLAND QUITE A WAYS THIS MORNING...STRATUS IS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AND GENERALLY CONCENTRATED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ALONG
THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR NICELY IN
MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH DUE IN PART TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH 70 DEGREES IN EUREKA AND CRESCENT CITY ON ONE OR MORE DAYS
THIS WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAY ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND LIKEWISE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS ALWAYS...THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AT THIS STAGE...AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVED.
ONE PERSISTENT THEME IN THE PAST FEW GFS SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SUBTLE
IMPULSE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE WATERS. WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS TO THESE AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS FARTHER WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO A
FEATURE SO SMALL AND STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO WILL REFRAIN
FROM MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET A BIT CLOSER AND
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN OVER THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. MORE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE WRF MODEL APPEARS THE HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. CLOUDINESS OVER LAND SHOULD THIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
DAY...SPREADING INLAND WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN FIRE REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE HUMBOLDT AND SE DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES BACK SE AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROF STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLIES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE S WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT
ST GEORGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH
GALES LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORTER DURATION OVER THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL BUILD IN KIND WITH 12 TO 13 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE. HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINES UNCHANGED FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
OFFSHORE BY TUE AND WED WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY AS WELL. WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THUS...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. THE LAST
FUELS ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE LEVELS AND ERCS WERE AT
ABOUT AVERAGE LEVELS...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL SINCE
THEN...THEY HAVE LIKELY DRIED SOME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261122 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
422 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY
WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY...WHILE
PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SET TO IMPACT NW CA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PRIMARILY THE TRINITY
HORN AND PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WHILE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THEM FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS BEFORE THEY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DEEP AND HAS
PENETRATED INLAND QUITE A WAYS THIS MORNING...STRATUS IS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AND GENERALLY CONCENTRATED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ALONG
THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR NICELY IN
MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH DUE IN PART TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH 70 DEGREES IN EUREKA AND CRESCENT CITY ON ONE OR MORE DAYS
THIS WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAY ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND LIKEWISE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS ALWAYS...THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AT THIS STAGE...AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVED.
ONE PERSISTENT THEME IN THE PAST FEW GFS SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SUBTLE
IMPULSE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE WATERS. WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS TO THESE AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS FARTHER WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO A
FEATURE SO SMALL AND STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO WILL REFRAIN
FROM MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET A BIT CLOSER AND
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN OVER THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. MORE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE WRF MODEL APPEARS THE HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. CLOUDINESS OVER LAND SHOULD THIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
DAY...SPREADING INLAND WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN FIRE REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE HUMBOLDT AND SE DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES BACK SE AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROF STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLIES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE S WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT
ST GEORGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH
GALES LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORTER DURATION OVER THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL BUILD IN KIND WITH 12 TO 13 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE. HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINES UNCHANGED FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
OFFSHORE BY TUE AND WED WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY AS WELL. WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THUS...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. THE LAST
FUELS ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE LEVELS AND ERCS WERE AT
ABOUT AVERAGE LEVELS...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL SINCE
THEN...THEY HAVE LIKELY DRIED SOME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 261122
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
422 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...


&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY...WHILE
PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SET TO IMPACT NW CA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PRIMARILY THE TRINITY
HORN AND PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WHILE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THEM FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS BEFORE THEY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DEEP AND HAS
PENETRATED INLAND QUITE A WAYS THIS MORNING...STRATUS IS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AND GENERALLY CONCENTRATED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ALONG
THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR NICELY IN
MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH DUE IN PART TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH 70 DEGREES IN EUREKA AND CRESCENT CITY ON ONE OR MORE DAYS
THIS WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAY ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND LIKEWISE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS ALWAYS...THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AT THIS STAGE...AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVED.
ONE PERSISTENT THEME IN THE PAST FEW GFS SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SUBTLE
IMPULSE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE WATERS. WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS TO THESE AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS FARTHER WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO A
FEATURE SO SMALL AND STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO WILL REFRAIN
FROM MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET A BIT CLOSER AND
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN OVER THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. MORE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE WRF MODEL APPEARS THE HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. CLOUDINESS OVER LAND SHOULD THIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
DAY...SPREADING INLAND WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN FIRE REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE HUMBOLDT AND SE DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES BACK SE AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROF STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLIES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE S WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT
ST GEORGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH
GALES LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORTER DURATION OVER THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL BUILD IN KIND WITH 12 TO 13 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE. HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINES UNCHANGED FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
OFFSHORE BY TUE AND WED WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY AS WELL. WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THUS...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. THE LAST
FUELS ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE LEVELS AND ERCS WERE AT
ABOUT AVERAGE LEVELS...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL SINCE
THEN...THEY HAVE LIKELY DRIED SOME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 261122 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
422 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG DRY
WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY...WHILE
PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SET TO IMPACT NW CA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PRIMARILY THE TRINITY
HORN AND PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WHILE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THEM FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY
VIGOROUS BEFORE THEY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DEEP AND HAS
PENETRATED INLAND QUITE A WAYS THIS MORNING...STRATUS IS SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AND GENERALLY CONCENTRATED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ALONG
THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR NICELY IN
MOST PLACES BY LATE MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH DUE IN PART TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH 70 DEGREES IN EUREKA AND CRESCENT CITY ON ONE OR MORE DAYS
THIS WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAY ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT FIRE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PLACING CALIFORNIA WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND LIKEWISE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS ALWAYS...THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AT THIS STAGE...AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVED.
ONE PERSISTENT THEME IN THE PAST FEW GFS SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SUBTLE
IMPULSE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE WATERS. WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS TO THESE AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS FARTHER WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO A
FEATURE SO SMALL AND STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO WILL REFRAIN
FROM MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET A BIT CLOSER AND
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN OVER THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. MORE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE WRF MODEL APPEARS THE HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. CLOUDINESS OVER LAND SHOULD THIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
DAY...SPREADING INLAND WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN FIRE REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE HUMBOLDT AND SE DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC HIGH NOSES BACK SE AND THE INLAND THERMAL
TROF STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLIES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE S WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM PT
ST GEORGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON EVENING WITH
GALES LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORTER DURATION OVER THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL BUILD IN KIND WITH 12 TO 13 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE BY
MON NIGHT AND TUE. HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINES UNCHANGED FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
OFFSHORE BY TUE AND WED WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TRINITY HORN AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY AS WELL. WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAK...SPORADIC...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION QUICKLY.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THUS...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. THE LAST
FUELS ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE LEVELS AND ERCS WERE AT
ABOUT AVERAGE LEVELS...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL SINCE
THEN...THEY HAVE LIKELY DRIED SOME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 252244
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
344 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG
DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT)...A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LED TO A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING. AS OF 20Z...STRATUS WAS STILL LINGERING
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST WITH CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF TRINITY COUNTY. A FEW HOURS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE STRATUS RE-FORMS ALONG THE COAST ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE QUEEN FIRE IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ALONG
HWY 169 NEAR PECWAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMOKE AND HAVE INCLUDED
AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STRONGER IMPULSE. WITH
INSTABILILTY PRESENT...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.

HEADING INTO MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION STARTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SKY COVER WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH DECREASED CLOUD
COVER AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF OF THE NEARBY COASTAL RIDGES. THE
HOT TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO POOR RH RECOVERIES.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, IF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS LATE IN
THE WEEK, THE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
NW CA, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINTAINED THE SCHC OF TSTMS TO THE FAVORED
NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA, BUT ALSO BEGAN A BROADER EXPANSION OF
TSTMS ACROSS TRINITY CO. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS EVOLVES, MOST OF NW
CAL COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SHOWERS OR TSTMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK. /BRC/BFG

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND AT THE COASTAL SITES THIS
MORNING WITH STRATUS MAKING IT WELL INLAND DUE TO A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER. AS OF 21Z...STRATUS WAS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST
WITH CU BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST. GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...STRATUS WILL RE-FORM ONCE AGAIN AFFECTING THE
COASTAL SITES WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. VFR WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME OBSCURATIONS OVER NORTHEAST HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST DEL NORTE COUNTY DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN
FIRE. STP

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SLOWLY EASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
INCREASE IS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST AND A
DEEPENING INLAND THERMAL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE GALES OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THESE GALES, SO
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THIS TIME. THIS ALSO PUTS US IN GOOD
COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES, MEDFORD AND OPC. WINDS
WILL SLACK OFF FOR THE SECONDS HALF OF THE WEEK, LIKELY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EVERYWHERE, DUE TO THE TERMAL TROUGH
PIVOTING OFFSHORE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE, THOUGH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 252244
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
344 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROLONG
DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT)...A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LED TO A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING. AS OF 20Z...STRATUS WAS STILL LINGERING
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST WITH CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF TRINITY COUNTY. A FEW HOURS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE STRATUS RE-FORMS ALONG THE COAST ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE QUEEN FIRE IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ALONG
HWY 169 NEAR PECWAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMOKE AND HAVE INCLUDED
AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STRONGER IMPULSE. WITH
INSTABILILTY PRESENT...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.

HEADING INTO MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION STARTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SKY COVER WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH DECREASED CLOUD
COVER AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF OF THE NEARBY COASTAL RIDGES. THE
HOT TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO POOR RH RECOVERIES.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, IF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS LATE IN
THE WEEK, THE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
NW CA, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINTAINED THE SCHC OF TSTMS TO THE FAVORED
NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA, BUT ALSO BEGAN A BROADER EXPANSION OF
TSTMS ACROSS TRINITY CO. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS EVOLVES, MOST OF NW
CAL COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SHOWERS OR TSTMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK. /BRC/BFG

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND AT THE COASTAL SITES THIS
MORNING WITH STRATUS MAKING IT WELL INLAND DUE TO A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER. AS OF 21Z...STRATUS WAS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST
WITH CU BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST. GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...STRATUS WILL RE-FORM ONCE AGAIN AFFECTING THE
COASTAL SITES WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. VFR WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME OBSCURATIONS OVER NORTHEAST HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST DEL NORTE COUNTY DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE QUEEN
FIRE. STP

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SLOWLY EASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
INCREASE IS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST AND A
DEEPENING INLAND THERMAL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE GALES OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THESE GALES, SO
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THIS TIME. THIS ALSO PUTS US IN GOOD
COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES, MEDFORD AND OPC. WINDS
WILL SLACK OFF FOR THE SECONDS HALF OF THE WEEK, LIKELY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EVERYWHERE, DUE TO THE TERMAL TROUGH
PIVOTING OFFSHORE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE, THOUGH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 251656 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO
CURRENT TRENDS AND TO ADD IN AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE NORTH COAST
INTERIOR GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 299. THE QUEEN FIRE COMPLEX OFF OF
HWY 169 NEAR PEKWAN IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS GENERATING A
QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES UP A BIT TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO INTRUDE DEEPER
INTO THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. STP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 432 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...BENIGN SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...A LEADING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER AND SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW CA COAST. VERY FEW IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...ASIDE
FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NW CA...WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY ERODE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THIS ITERATION IS LIKELY
TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN
TRINITY COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DEL
NORTE/SISKIYOU COUNTY LINE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND LIKEWISE OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE LOCATION OF SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE...ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA.

BY MONDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...AND BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE STATUS OF AREA FUELS...WHICH
CURRENTLY SIT AT AROUND NORMAL ERC AND MOISTURE LEVELS...FIRE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS ARE RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND THIS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING. BY WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO NW CA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO ADD SCHC MENTION OF TSTORMS TO THE
FAVORED NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/BRC

AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUDINESS IS MORE EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING
WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH CLOUDS WELL INLAND UP THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUDS MAY THIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ONLY TO RE-THICKEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NNW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST. ALTHO THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED...CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY EVENING. /SEC

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AS THE PACIFIC HIGH REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THE THERMAL TROF WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY WITH INCREASING RESULTANT
NORTHERLIES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHO INITIAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE S NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE N OFFSHORE WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. THE EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS STARTING AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 251656 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO
CURRENT TRENDS AND TO ADD IN AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE NORTH COAST
INTERIOR GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 299. THE QUEEN FIRE COMPLEX OFF OF
HWY 169 NEAR PEKWAN IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS GENERATING A
QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES UP A BIT TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO INTRUDE DEEPER
INTO THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. STP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 432 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...BENIGN SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...A LEADING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER AND SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW CA COAST. VERY FEW IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...ASIDE
FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NW CA...WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY ERODE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THIS ITERATION IS LIKELY
TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN
TRINITY COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DEL
NORTE/SISKIYOU COUNTY LINE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND LIKEWISE OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE LOCATION OF SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE...ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA.

BY MONDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...AND BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE STATUS OF AREA FUELS...WHICH
CURRENTLY SIT AT AROUND NORMAL ERC AND MOISTURE LEVELS...FIRE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS ARE RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND THIS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING. BY WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO NW CA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO ADD SCHC MENTION OF TSTORMS TO THE
FAVORED NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/BRC

AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUDINESS IS MORE EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING
WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH CLOUDS WELL INLAND UP THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUDS MAY THIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ONLY TO RE-THICKEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NNW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST. ALTHO THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED...CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY EVENING. /SEC

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AS THE PACIFIC HIGH REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THE THERMAL TROF WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY WITH INCREASING RESULTANT
NORTHERLIES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHO INITIAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE S NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE N OFFSHORE WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. THE EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS STARTING AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 251656 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO
CURRENT TRENDS AND TO ADD IN AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE NORTH COAST
INTERIOR GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 299. THE QUEEN FIRE COMPLEX OFF OF
HWY 169 NEAR PEKWAN IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS GENERATING A
QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES UP A BIT TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO INTRUDE DEEPER
INTO THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. STP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 432 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...BENIGN SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...A LEADING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER AND SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW CA COAST. VERY FEW IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...ASIDE
FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NW CA...WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY ERODE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THIS ITERATION IS LIKELY
TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN
TRINITY COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DEL
NORTE/SISKIYOU COUNTY LINE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND LIKEWISE OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE LOCATION OF SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE...ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA.

BY MONDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...AND BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE STATUS OF AREA FUELS...WHICH
CURRENTLY SIT AT AROUND NORMAL ERC AND MOISTURE LEVELS...FIRE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS ARE RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND THIS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING. BY WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO NW CA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO ADD SCHC MENTION OF TSTORMS TO THE
FAVORED NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/BRC

AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUDINESS IS MORE EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING
WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH CLOUDS WELL INLAND UP THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUDS MAY THIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ONLY TO RE-THICKEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NNW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST. ALTHO THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED...CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY EVENING. /SEC

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AS THE PACIFIC HIGH REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THE THERMAL TROF WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY WITH INCREASING RESULTANT
NORTHERLIES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHO INITIAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE S NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE N OFFSHORE WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. THE EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS STARTING AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 251650 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO
CURRENT TRENDS AND TO ADD IN AREAS OF THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR
GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 299. THE QUEEN FIRE COMPLEX OFF OF HWY 169
NEAR PEKWAN IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS GENERATING A QUITE A
BIT OF SMOKE THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND
RH VALUES UP A BIT TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE
AREA HAS ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO INTRUDE DEEPER INTO THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. STP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 432 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...BENIGN SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...A LEADING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER AND SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW CA COAST. VERY FEW IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...ASIDE
FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NW CA...WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY ERODE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THIS ITERATION IS LIKELY
TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN
TRINITY COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DEL
NORTE/SISKIYOU COUNTY LINE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND LIKEWISE OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE LOCATION OF SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE...ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA.

BY MONDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...AND BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE STATUS OF AREA FUELS...WHICH
CURRENTLY SIT AT AROUND NORMAL ERC AND MOISTURE LEVELS...FIRE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS ARE RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND THIS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING. BY WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO NW CA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO ADD SCHC MENTION OF TSTORMS TO THE
FAVORED NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/BRC

AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUDINESS IS MORE EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING
WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH CLOUDS WELL INLAND UP THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUDS MAY THIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ONLY TO RE-THICKEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NNW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST. ALTHO THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED...CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY EVENING. /SEC

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AS THE PACIFIC HIGH REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THE THERMAL TROF WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY WITH INCREASING RESULTANT
NORTHERLIES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHO INITIAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE S NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE N OFFSHORE WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. THE EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS STARTING AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 251650 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO
CURRENT TRENDS AND TO ADD IN AREAS OF THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR
GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 299. THE QUEEN FIRE COMPLEX OFF OF HWY 169
NEAR PEKWAN IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS GENERATING A QUITE A
BIT OF SMOKE THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND
RH VALUES UP A BIT TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE
AREA HAS ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO INTRUDE DEEPER INTO THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. STP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 432 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...BENIGN SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...A LEADING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER AND SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW CA COAST. VERY FEW IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...ASIDE
FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NW CA...WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY ERODE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THIS ITERATION IS LIKELY
TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN
TRINITY COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DEL
NORTE/SISKIYOU COUNTY LINE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND LIKEWISE OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE LOCATION OF SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE...ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA.

BY MONDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...AND BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE STATUS OF AREA FUELS...WHICH
CURRENTLY SIT AT AROUND NORMAL ERC AND MOISTURE LEVELS...FIRE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS ARE RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND THIS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING. BY WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO NW CA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO ADD SCHC MENTION OF TSTORMS TO THE
FAVORED NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/BRC

AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUDINESS IS MORE EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING
WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH CLOUDS WELL INLAND UP THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUDS MAY THIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ONLY TO RE-THICKEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NNW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST. ALTHO THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED...CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY EVENING. /SEC

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AS THE PACIFIC HIGH REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THE THERMAL TROF WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY WITH INCREASING RESULTANT
NORTHERLIES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHO INITIAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE S NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE N OFFSHORE WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. THE EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS STARTING AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 251650 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO
CURRENT TRENDS AND TO ADD IN AREAS OF THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR
GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 299. THE QUEEN FIRE COMPLEX OFF OF HWY 169
NEAR PEKWAN IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS GENERATING A QUITE A
BIT OF SMOKE THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND
RH VALUES UP A BIT TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE
AREA HAS ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO INTRUDE DEEPER INTO THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. STP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 432 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...BENIGN SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...A LEADING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER AND SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW CA COAST. VERY FEW IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...ASIDE
FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NW CA...WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY ERODE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THIS ITERATION IS LIKELY
TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN
TRINITY COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DEL
NORTE/SISKIYOU COUNTY LINE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND LIKEWISE OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE LOCATION OF SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE...ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA.

BY MONDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...AND BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE STATUS OF AREA FUELS...WHICH
CURRENTLY SIT AT AROUND NORMAL ERC AND MOISTURE LEVELS...FIRE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS ARE RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND THIS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING. BY WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO NW CA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO ADD SCHC MENTION OF TSTORMS TO THE
FAVORED NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/BRC

AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUDINESS IS MORE EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING
WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH CLOUDS WELL INLAND UP THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUDS MAY THIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ONLY TO RE-THICKEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NNW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST. ALTHO THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED...CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY EVENING. /SEC

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AS THE PACIFIC HIGH REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THE THERMAL TROF WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY WITH INCREASING RESULTANT
NORTHERLIES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHO INITIAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE S NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE N OFFSHORE WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. THE EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS STARTING AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 251132
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
432 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BENIGN SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...A LEADING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER AND SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK COLD
FROM IS APPROACHING THE NW CA COAST. VERY FEW IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...ASIDE
FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NW CA...WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY ERODE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THIS ITERATION IS LIKELY
TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN
TRINITY COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DEL
NORTE/SISKIYOU COUNTY LINE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND LIKEWISE OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE LOCATION OF SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE...ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA.

BY MONDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...AND BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE STATUS OF AREA FUELS...WHICH
CURRENTLY SIT AT AROUND NORMAL ERC AND MOISTURE LEVELS...FIRE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS ARE RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND THIS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING. BY WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO NW CA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO ADD SCHC MENTION OF TSTORMS TO THE
FAVORED NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUDINESS IS MORE EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING
WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH CLOUDS WELL INLAND UP THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUDS MAY THIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ONLY TO RE-THICKEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NNW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST. ALTHO THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED...CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY EVENING. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AS THE PACIFIC HIGH REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THE THERMAL TROF WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY WITH INCREASING RESULTANT
NORTHERLIES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHO INITIAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE S NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE N OFFSHORE WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. THE EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS STARTING AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 251132
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
432 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY LOW INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND GENERATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BENIGN SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...A LEADING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER AND SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK COLD
FROM IS APPROACHING THE NW CA COAST. VERY FEW IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...ASIDE
FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NW CA...WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY ERODE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THIS ITERATION IS LIKELY
TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN
TRINITY COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DEL
NORTE/SISKIYOU COUNTY LINE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...AND LIKEWISE OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE LOCATION OF SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE...ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA.

BY MONDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...AND BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE STATUS OF AREA FUELS...WHICH
CURRENTLY SIT AT AROUND NORMAL ERC AND MOISTURE LEVELS...FIRE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS ARE RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND THIS
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING. BY WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL QUASI MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO NW CA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO ADD SCHC MENTION OF TSTORMS TO THE
FAVORED NE TRINITY COUNTY AREA FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUDINESS IS MORE EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING
WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH CLOUDS WELL INLAND UP THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUDS MAY THIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ONLY TO RE-THICKEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS NNW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST. ALTHO THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED...CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY EVENING. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AS THE PACIFIC HIGH REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THE THERMAL TROF WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY WITH INCREASING RESULTANT
NORTHERLIES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHO INITIAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE S NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE N OFFSHORE WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. THE EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS STARTING AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
INLAND THERMAL TROF IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OFFSHORE BY TUE WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM THE SE. /SEC


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities