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000
FXUS66 KEKA 302213
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
313 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT POTENT COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST. A
FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WITH THE
FRONT WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS INCONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AFTER
HAVING DRIVEN A COLD FRONT INTO NW CALIFORNIA NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY
WITH YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUN...THE MODEL HAS NOW SHIFTED BACK NORTH
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUS WILL KEEP WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MONDAY/TUESDAY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
KCEC AND KACV TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT KUKI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT UKI.


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TUESDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN THE SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM PDT FRIDAY TO 2 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 302213
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
313 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT POTENT COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST. A
FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WITH THE
FRONT WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS INCONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AFTER
HAVING DRIVEN A COLD FRONT INTO NW CALIFORNIA NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY
WITH YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUN...THE MODEL HAS NOW SHIFTED BACK NORTH
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUS WILL KEEP WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MONDAY/TUESDAY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
KCEC AND KACV TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT KUKI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT UKI.


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TUESDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN THE SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM PDT FRIDAY TO 2 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 301411
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
711 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.


&&

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING FOG THIS MORNING. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW. RPA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 356 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS PICTURES FROM SPACE LOOKING VERY MUCH
LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH HIGH WARM SECTOR CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. AS OF 4AM RADAR RETURNS
SHOWING ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THESE CLOUDS WHILE REMAINING
WELL OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT THAT IS PROVIDING THE CLOUDS WILL
VERY GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD APPROACHING THE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN REACHING THE NORTH COAST
SOMEWHERE AROUND 6 OR 7PM...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR
4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY
LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGH.
THE MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DIVERGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
THE GFS NOW INDICATING A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW A FRONT TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FARTHER NORTH...THUS LEAVING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DRY. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
IN GENERAL HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IN THE ENSEMBLES.
RPA/JT

AVIATION...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
500MB TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE UPSLOPE TERRAIN-DRIVEN LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR KCEC. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN MAY DROP VSBYS TO 3SM OR LESS AT KACV AND KCEC AFTER MIDNIGHT
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST.
COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW ON FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR KACV AND KCEC.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KUKI LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS TO MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD HIT 15-20 KT WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR
WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES INLAND AND WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW BRIEFLY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE COOLER AIR MASS
WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND LOW TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROFILES
ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LONG-LIVED STORMS. FRI
NIGHT MAY BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY
STRONG...THE CONVECTION MAY GENERATE LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO 20-30KT.
NORTH FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ON SAT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS HITTING 20-25 KT IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO. HOWEVER SEAS WILL ALREADY BE UP
TO 10 FT OR MORE ON SAT AND ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
NECESSARY IN ALL MARINE ZONES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BE A COMBINATION
OF A LONGER PERIOD WNW SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE GROUP.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 301056
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
356 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS PICTURES FROM SPACE LOOKING VERY MUCH
LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH HIGH WARM SECTOR CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE ETREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. AS OF 4AM RADAR RETURNS
SHOWING ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THESE CLOUDS WHILE REMAINING
WELL OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT THAT IS PROVIDING THE CLOUDS WILL
VERY GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD APPROACHING THE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN REACHING THE NORTH COAST
SOMEWHERE AROUND 6 OR 7PM...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR
4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY
LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGH.
THE MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DIVERGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
THE GFS NOW INDICATING A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW A FRONT TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FARTHER NORTH...THUS LEAVING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DRY. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
IN GENERAL HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IN THE ENSEMBLES.
RPA/JT

&&

.AVIATION...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
500MB TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE UPSLOPE TERRAIN-DRIVEN LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR KCEC. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN MAY DROP VSBYS TO 3SM OR LESS AT KACV AND KCEC AFTER MIDNIGHT
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST.
COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW ON FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR KACV AND KCEC.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KUKI LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS TO MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD HIT 15-20 KT WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR
WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES INLAND AND WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW BRIEFLY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE COOLER AIR MASS
WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND LOW TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROFILES
ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LONG-LIVED STORMS. FRI
NIGHT MAY BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY
STRONG...THE CONVECTION MAY GENERATE LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO 20-30KT.
NORTH FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ON SAT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS HITTING 20-25 KT IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO. HOWEVER SEAS WILL ALREADY BE UP
TO 10 FT OR MORE ON SAT AND ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
NECESSARY IN ALL MARINE ZONES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BE A COMBINATION
OF A LONGER PERIOD WNW SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE GROUP.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 301056
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
356 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS PICTURES FROM SPACE LOOKING VERY MUCH
LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH HIGH WARM SECTOR CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE ETREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. AS OF 4AM RADAR RETURNS
SHOWING ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THESE CLOUDS WHILE REMAINING
WELL OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT THAT IS PROVIDING THE CLOUDS WILL
VERY GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD APPROACHING THE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN REACHING THE NORTH COAST
SOMEWHERE AROUND 6 OR 7PM...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR
4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY
LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGH.
THE MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DIVERGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
THE GFS NOW INDICATING A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW A FRONT TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FARTHER NORTH...THUS LEAVING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DRY. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
IN GENERAL HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IN THE ENSEMBLES.
RPA/JT

&&

.AVIATION...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
500MB TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE UPSLOPE TERRAIN-DRIVEN LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR KCEC. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN MAY DROP VSBYS TO 3SM OR LESS AT KACV AND KCEC AFTER MIDNIGHT
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST.
COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW ON FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR KACV AND KCEC.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KUKI LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS TO MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD HIT 15-20 KT WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR
WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES INLAND AND WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW BRIEFLY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE COOLER AIR MASS
WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND LOW TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROFILES
ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LONG-LIVED STORMS. FRI
NIGHT MAY BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY
STRONG...THE CONVECTION MAY GENERATE LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO 20-30KT.
NORTH FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ON SAT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS HITTING 20-25 KT IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO. HOWEVER SEAS WILL ALREADY BE UP
TO 10 FT OR MORE ON SAT AND ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
NECESSARY IN ALL MARINE ZONES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BE A COMBINATION
OF A LONGER PERIOD WNW SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE GROUP.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 292221
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
321 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO PRIMARILY DEL NORTE
COUNTY OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH EVER SO SLOWLY
TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES THIS EVENING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH. THE NEXT POTENT COLD FRONT IS AROUND 140W AND MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH WEAKNESSES
ON THE WEST SIDE TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO BARREL THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RAIN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN
ITS EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGH.

THE MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DIVERGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
THE GFS NOW INDICATING A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW A FRONT TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND FARTHER NORTH...THUS LEAVING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
DRY. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN GENERAL HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING IS CURRENTLY
THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IN THE ENSEMBLES. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA OREGON BORDER WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS AT
TIMES AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KCEC AND KACV TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
FRIDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THESE SYSTEMS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS
ALL OF THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
THE SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 291155
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
418 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL SINK
SOUTH TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO
RETREAT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THUS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. IN
GENERAL CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE NORTH MENDOCINO COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER SOUTH. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO
FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET. AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALLOWING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
PRIMARILY OVER 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY STRONGER SHOWER MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WHICH COULD IMPACT AREAS DOWN
TO SEA LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION IS CURRENTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL. GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING IT
GENERALLY APPEARS THAT DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR NORTHWEST CA
NEXT WEEK. JT/RPA

&&

.AVIATION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PATCHES OF IFR NORTH OF THE CAPE
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING INCREASES. MOIST AIR WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND
PERHAPS PERIODIC IFR NEAR THE COAST. CONFIDENCE THAT IFR WILL
DEVELOP AT KACV AND KCEC IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
DISSIPATES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT TO OUR NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD
REACH 15-25KT IN THE OUTER WATERS ON THU. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND BRING A RETURN OF NORTH WINDS. HOW LONG THE
NORTH WINDS PERSIST IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO
INDICATE A WARM FRONT BUSTING DOWN ON THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
MAY SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH NORTH OF CAPE MENDO. WESTERLY
SWELL HAS BEEN RUNNING AROUND 8-9 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SWELL
SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THU. HOWEVER SOUTH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
WILL START TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEST SWELL FROM THIS STORM LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON FRI AND
THEN BUILD FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE GFS
WINDS OF 30-40KT. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE WW3 MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS THE SWELL PEAKING AROUND 11-14 FT FRI NIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 291118
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
418 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL SINK
SOUTH TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO
RETREAT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THUS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. IN
GENERAL CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE NORTH MENDOCINO COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER SOUTH. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO
FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET. AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALLOWING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
PRIMARILY OVER 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY STRONGER SHOWER MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WHICH COULD IMPACT AREAS DOWN
TO SEA LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION IS CURRENTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL. GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING IT
GENERALLY APPEARS THAT DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR NORTHWEST CA
NEXT WEEK. JT/RPA

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVEWAY
TO INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AS A FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TODAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN TO IFR TONIGHT AT KACV AND KCEC AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. KUKI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
THROUGH 12Z WED...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL EASE UP LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. A
POTENTIALLY LARGER WEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRI
WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SAT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 282228
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
328 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SETTLING OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
PRIMARILY NORTH OF SHELTER COVE AND WEST OF TRINITY COUNTY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL SINK SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD FRONT TO RETREAT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. IN GENERAL CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE NORTH MENDOCINO
COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAINS TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET. AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ALLOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY OCCUR PRIMARILY OVER 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY STRONGER SHOWER
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WHICH COULD IMPACT AREAS DOWN
TO SEA LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION IS CURRENTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

THIS CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY THOUGH IN THE EXTENDED AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE
WHICH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AND ALSO WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO ISSUES RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING...TRAJECTORY...AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE
NEXT POTENTIAL WEST COAST STORM. THUS CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT VERY LOW
ON WHAT TRANSPIRES BEYOND TUESDAY. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV. THEREFORE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AT
KCEC AND KACV. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS HAS
INCREASED THE WINDS AND SEAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281736
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1036 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED TO IMPACT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...MUCH FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THUS THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE REST OF TODAY NORTH
OF SHELTER COVE AND EAST OF TRINITY COUNTY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT SHIFTS THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RPA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 352 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST. DUE TO AN UNEXPECTED
RADAR OUTAGE RAINFALL DETECTION IS UNAVAILABLE HOWEVER GIVEN THE
SAT PICS AND MODEL DATA ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY WAIT TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AROUND THE CRESCENT CITY AREA. LATER
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY WITH A LITTLE RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO NORTH-
WESTERN TRINITY COUNTY. BY WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
DEL NORTE COUNTY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT AND AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH WITH HUMBOLDT BAY EXPECTING
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND INTO OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP
THE FRONT MOVING BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY
THE PARENT TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION BRINGING SOME COLD
AIR TO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SNOW FALLING DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AS A
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST FROM THE NW. THE FRONT
WILL GENERATE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY
TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN TO IFR TONIGHT AT KACV AND KCEC AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. KUKI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
THROUGH 12Z WED...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST TONIGHT.

MARINE...A FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL EASE UP LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. A
POTENTIALLY LARGER WEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRI
WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SAT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281736 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1036 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED TO IMPACT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...MUCH FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THUS THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE REST OF TODAY NORTH
OF SHELTER COVE AND WEST OF TRINITY COUNTY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT SHIFTS THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RPA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 352 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST. DUE TO AN UNEXPECTED
RADAR OUTAGE RAINFALL DETECTION IS UNAVAILABLE HOWEVER GIVEN THE
SAT PICS AND MODEL DATA ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY WAIT TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AROUND THE CRESCENT CITY AREA. LATER
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY WITH A LITTLE RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO NORTH-
WESTERN TRINITY COUNTY. BY WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
DEL NORTE COUNTY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT AND AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH WITH HUMBOLDT BAY EXPECTING
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND INTO OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP
THE FRONT MOVING BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY
THE PARENT TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION BRINGING SOME COLD
AIR TO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SNOW FALLING DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AS A
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST FROM THE NW. THE FRONT
WILL GENERATE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY
TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN TO IFR TONIGHT AT KACV AND KCEC AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. KUKI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
THROUGH 12Z WED...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST TONIGHT.

MARINE...A FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL EASE UP LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. A
POTENTIALLY LARGER WEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRI
WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SAT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281052
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST. DUE TO AN UNEXPECTED
RADAR OUTAGE RAINFALL DETECTION IS UNAVAILABLE HOWEVER GIVEN THE
SAT PICS AND MODEL DATA ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY WAIT TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AROUND THE CRESCENT CITY AREA. LATER
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY WITH A LITTLE RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO NORTH-
WESTERN TRINITY COUNTY. BY WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
DEL NORTE COUNTY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT AND AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH WITH HUMBOLDT BAY EXPECTING
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND INTO OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP
THE FRONT MOVING BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY
THE PARENT TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION BRINGING SOME COLD
AIR TO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SNOW FALLING DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVEWAY
TO INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AS A FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TODAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN TO IFR TONIGHT AT KACV AND KCEC AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. KUKI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
THROUGH 12Z WED...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL EASE UP LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. A
POTENTIALLY LARGER WEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRI
WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SAT.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

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