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000
FXUS66 KEKA 301056
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
256 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WETTER PATTERN
MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING IR SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST
OFF THE COAST...WHILE POCKETS OF COASTAL STRATUS REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS ERODED SOME OF THE
POCKETS BUT IT MAY TAKE SOME SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING TO
COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR AND THE AIR MASS WILL WARM UP TOWARD THIS
WEEKEND. THE PLEASANT WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE NORTH COAST THAT MAY BRING PRECIP TO NW CA...ALTHOUGH THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE HAS THUS FAR PROVEN TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THAT MEANS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. EVEN GOING INTO TUE AND WED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE WITH SPOTTY PRECIP FROM TIME TO TIME. ONCE
AGAIN THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE AND WILL SCALE DOWN THE
PRECIP CHANCES TO 10% OR LESS. TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...THU AND FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM
PLOWING INTO THE RIDGE AND BRINGING BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO NW CA. THE GFS WAS SLOWER. THE ECWMF FASTER. ALTHOUGH BOTH
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR OVERDOING RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THESE
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION PLUMES; THE SO-CALLED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVERS...ITS HARD TO IGNORE THUS HAVE PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVELY AND
WENT WITH THE STANDARD CLIMO POPS (30-40%).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS PATCHY FOG LOWERS VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI TODAY. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT KCEC
AND KACV. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM AT KUKI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTERACTING WITH A
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA HAS INCREASED THE
WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SEAS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL TRAVERSES THE WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 301056
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
256 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WETTER PATTERN
MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING IR SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST
OFF THE COAST...WHILE POCKETS OF COASTAL STRATUS REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS ERODED SOME OF THE
POCKETS BUT IT MAY TAKE SOME SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING TO
COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR AND THE AIR MASS WILL WARM UP TOWARD THIS
WEEKEND. THE PLEASANT WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE NORTH COAST THAT MAY BRING PRECIP TO NW CA...ALTHOUGH THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE HAS THUS FAR PROVEN TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THAT MEANS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. EVEN GOING INTO TUE AND WED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE WITH SPOTTY PRECIP FROM TIME TO TIME. ONCE
AGAIN THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE AND WILL SCALE DOWN THE
PRECIP CHANCES TO 10% OR LESS. TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...THU AND FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM
PLOWING INTO THE RIDGE AND BRINGING BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO NW CA. THE GFS WAS SLOWER. THE ECWMF FASTER. ALTHOUGH BOTH
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR OVERDOING RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THESE
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION PLUMES; THE SO-CALLED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVERS...ITS HARD TO IGNORE THUS HAVE PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVELY AND
WENT WITH THE STANDARD CLIMO POPS (30-40%).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS PATCHY FOG LOWERS VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI TODAY. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT KCEC
AND KACV. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM AT KUKI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTERACTING WITH A
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA HAS INCREASED THE
WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SEAS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL TRAVERSES THE WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 292346
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
346 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTH FLOW INCREASING OVER THE WATERS HAS PRODUCED
A PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS...MOSTLY AROUND EUREKA AND IN THE DELTA.
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD SLIGHTLY DEEPER INTO THE NORTH COAST
RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY ERODE SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MORNING. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING BETTER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST. THUS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL DECREASE AS THE ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW
EASES UP NEARSHORE. INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE AIR MASS WILL WARM UP THIS WEEKEND. THE WARMING POTENTIAL
WILL BE MITIGATED BY A STRONG INVERSION WHICH WILL PREVENT
COMPLETE MIXING AND LAPSE RATES FROM GOING DRY ADIABATIC TO
5KFT IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. IT MAY SEEM LIKE
SUMMER...BUT THE MIXING IS JUST NOT STRONG ENOUGH YET. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SITES WILL PROBABLY SEE THE BEST WARMING...WHILE THE
VALLEYS NOT AS MUCH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING
PRECIP TO NW CA LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE HAS THUS
FAR PROVEN TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RAIN AND REDUCE
THE AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE A TREND THIS YEAR WITH THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE. GUT INSTINCT HERE...THE MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN
OVERDONE. WE DO NOT KNOW FOR SURE, SO WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF
PRUDENCE HERE...AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THAT MEANS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. EVEN GOING INTO TUE AND WED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE WITH SPOTTY PRECIP FROM TIME TO TIME. ONCE
AGAIN THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE AND WILL SCALE DOWN THE
PRECIP CHANCES TO 10% OR LESS. TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...THU AND FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM
PLOWING INTO THE RIDGE AND BRINGING BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO NW CA. THE GFS WAS SLOWER. THE ECWMF FASTER. BOTH MODELS
ARE NOTORIOUS FOR OVERDOING RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THESE WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION PLUMES; THE SO CALLED ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS. WE SHALL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OFF THE COAST RESULTING
IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA. HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS TO
FORM AND MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE WINDS. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
...THOUGH SOME OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IS EXPECTED NEAR
CRESCENT CITY AND JUST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDICINO WHICH COULD KEEP THE
AIRPORTS AT SHELTER COVE AND CRESCENT CITY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
INTERIOR VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...AND IF THE NAM MODEL IS RIGHT MAY BRING LOW
CLOUDS TO THE UKIAH AREA. ANY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
THE LATE MORNING OR VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. RPA

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM MODERATE TO STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A
RESULT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...ALTHOUGH LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.
IN THESE AREAS...THE MOST HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
THE VICINITY OF POINT ARENA. TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 PM TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO THE
CURRENTLY VALID ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO
SUBSIDE BY EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL
BE REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY SWELL EARLY IN THE WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 292346
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
346 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTH FLOW INCREASING OVER THE WATERS HAS PRODUCED
A PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS...MOSTLY AROUND EUREKA AND IN THE DELTA.
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD SLIGHTLY DEEPER INTO THE NORTH COAST
RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY ERODE SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MORNING. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING BETTER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST. THUS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL DECREASE AS THE ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW
EASES UP NEARSHORE. INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE AIR MASS WILL WARM UP THIS WEEKEND. THE WARMING POTENTIAL
WILL BE MITIGATED BY A STRONG INVERSION WHICH WILL PREVENT
COMPLETE MIXING AND LAPSE RATES FROM GOING DRY ADIABATIC TO
5KFT IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. IT MAY SEEM LIKE
SUMMER...BUT THE MIXING IS JUST NOT STRONG ENOUGH YET. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SITES WILL PROBABLY SEE THE BEST WARMING...WHILE THE
VALLEYS NOT AS MUCH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING
PRECIP TO NW CA LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE HAS THUS
FAR PROVEN TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RAIN AND REDUCE
THE AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE A TREND THIS YEAR WITH THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE. GUT INSTINCT HERE...THE MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN
OVERDONE. WE DO NOT KNOW FOR SURE, SO WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF
PRUDENCE HERE...AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THAT MEANS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. EVEN GOING INTO TUE AND WED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE WITH SPOTTY PRECIP FROM TIME TO TIME. ONCE
AGAIN THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE AND WILL SCALE DOWN THE
PRECIP CHANCES TO 10% OR LESS. TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...THU AND FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM
PLOWING INTO THE RIDGE AND BRINGING BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO NW CA. THE GFS WAS SLOWER. THE ECWMF FASTER. BOTH MODELS
ARE NOTORIOUS FOR OVERDOING RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THESE WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION PLUMES; THE SO CALLED ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS. WE SHALL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OFF THE COAST RESULTING
IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA. HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS TO
FORM AND MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE WINDS. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
...THOUGH SOME OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IS EXPECTED NEAR
CRESCENT CITY AND JUST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDICINO WHICH COULD KEEP THE
AIRPORTS AT SHELTER COVE AND CRESCENT CITY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
INTERIOR VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...AND IF THE NAM MODEL IS RIGHT MAY BRING LOW
CLOUDS TO THE UKIAH AREA. ANY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
THE LATE MORNING OR VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. RPA

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM MODERATE TO STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A
RESULT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...ALTHOUGH LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.
IN THESE AREAS...THE MOST HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
THE VICINITY OF POINT ARENA. TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 PM TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO THE
CURRENTLY VALID ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO
SUBSIDE BY EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL
BE REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY SWELL EARLY IN THE WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 291130
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH COAST INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE
WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND
MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUN THE CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARE DWINDLING.
THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS VERY LITTLE RAIN REACHING THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES BUT EVEN MORE SO SOUTHWARD. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A
RIDGE BEGINS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST, BRINGING A RETURN
OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS
LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN.
LIFR TO IFR STRATUS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE COAST
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MOST OF
THE REGION TODAY. KML


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND STEEPER
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FIRST FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND
THEN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHORTER PERIOD SEAS RESPONDING
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A WESTERLY SWELL IMPACTING THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNEAKER
WAVES WILL POSE A THREAT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING
TIDE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. BEACH GOERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND
AVOID STEEP BEACHES, JETTIES, AND CLIMBING LARGE ROCKS AND LOGS NEAR
THE SURF ZONE. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WHILE A SECONDARY WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A PASSING DISTURBANCE WEAKENS THE COASTAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 291130
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH COAST INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE
WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND
MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUN THE CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARE DWINDLING.
THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS VERY LITTLE RAIN REACHING THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES BUT EVEN MORE SO SOUTHWARD. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A
RIDGE BEGINS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST, BRINGING A RETURN
OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS
LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN.
LIFR TO IFR STRATUS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE COAST
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MOST OF
THE REGION TODAY. KML


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND STEEPER
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FIRST FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND
THEN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHORTER PERIOD SEAS RESPONDING
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A WESTERLY SWELL IMPACTING THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNEAKER
WAVES WILL POSE A THREAT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING
TIDE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. BEACH GOERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND
AVOID STEEP BEACHES, JETTIES, AND CLIMBING LARGE ROCKS AND LOGS NEAR
THE SURF ZONE. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WHILE A SECONDARY WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A PASSING DISTURBANCE WEAKENS THE COASTAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 282201
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
201 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WEEKEND. WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE
WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND
MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD BRING US
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTER CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAISED POPS
A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE, WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE NORTH, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK TO BE TOO IMPRESSIVE. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BEGINS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST,
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE POPS TRENDING DOWN
THOSE DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT GENERATING MID AND HIGH LAYER CLOUD COVER.
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THU MORNING...THOUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INHIBIT THE LONG WAVE COOLING SOME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
STRATUS OR FOG WILL ENVELOPE COASTAL SITES AS NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS
TONIGHT, SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN BASED LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING WINDS OF 20-25KT AND
STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INTO FRIDAY. THE INITIAL RAMP
UP OF THE WINDS WILL BE GRADUAL ON THU. SUBJECTIVELY DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT...EVEN THOUGH THE
NAM12, ARW, NMM...AND SREF SHOW AREAS OF 20-25 KT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS OF 20-25KT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRI WITH SHORT
PERIOD WAVE ENERGY CONTRIBUTING TO THE TOTAL SEA STATE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND AND BUST UP THE
NORTHERLY GRADIENT RESULTING IN A REDUCTION OF WINDS.

FORERUNNERS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM A LARGE
PACIFIC STORM ARRIVED TODAY. ACCORDING TO THE 2 CDIP BUOYS THESE
WAVES WERE ABOUT HALF OF A FOOT OR LESS. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TONIGHT INTO THU...UP TO 4 FT AT 17 SECONDS THU
AFTERNOON. SWELL OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY POSE A SNEAKER WAVE
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING TIDE THU AFTERNOON. NWPS
GUIDANCE HAS A COUPLE OF SHORTER PERIOD WAVE GROUPS IN THE MIX AS
WELL, NW 4 FT AT 6 SECONDS AND W 3 FT AT 11 SECONDS. IF OUR
ASSUMPTIONS ARE CORRECT AND THESE SHORT PERIOD WAVES ACTUALLY
OCCUR...THE RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE REDUCED. IF THEY DO NOT
OCCUR AND THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FROM THE NWPS AND ENP MODELS ARE
TOO HIGH...THEN THE RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHER
AND BEACH GOERS WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE SURF. IT
IS NOT KNOWN FOR SURE AT THIS POINT IF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE SHORTER PERIOD WAVES. IF THEY ARE NOT
OVERDONE...THE SHORT PERIOD WAVES MAY MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE AND
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATERS THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 282201
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
201 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WEEKEND. WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE
WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND
MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD BRING US
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTER CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAISED POPS
A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE, WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE NORTH, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK TO BE TOO IMPRESSIVE. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BEGINS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST,
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE POPS TRENDING DOWN
THOSE DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT GENERATING MID AND HIGH LAYER CLOUD COVER.
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THU MORNING...THOUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INHIBIT THE LONG WAVE COOLING SOME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
STRATUS OR FOG WILL ENVELOPE COASTAL SITES AS NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS
TONIGHT, SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN BASED LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING WINDS OF 20-25KT AND
STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INTO FRIDAY. THE INITIAL RAMP
UP OF THE WINDS WILL BE GRADUAL ON THU. SUBJECTIVELY DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT...EVEN THOUGH THE
NAM12, ARW, NMM...AND SREF SHOW AREAS OF 20-25 KT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS OF 20-25KT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRI WITH SHORT
PERIOD WAVE ENERGY CONTRIBUTING TO THE TOTAL SEA STATE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND AND BUST UP THE
NORTHERLY GRADIENT RESULTING IN A REDUCTION OF WINDS.

FORERUNNERS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM A LARGE
PACIFIC STORM ARRIVED TODAY. ACCORDING TO THE 2 CDIP BUOYS THESE
WAVES WERE ABOUT HALF OF A FOOT OR LESS. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TONIGHT INTO THU...UP TO 4 FT AT 17 SECONDS THU
AFTERNOON. SWELL OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY POSE A SNEAKER WAVE
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING TIDE THU AFTERNOON. NWPS
GUIDANCE HAS A COUPLE OF SHORTER PERIOD WAVE GROUPS IN THE MIX AS
WELL, NW 4 FT AT 6 SECONDS AND W 3 FT AT 11 SECONDS. IF OUR
ASSUMPTIONS ARE CORRECT AND THESE SHORT PERIOD WAVES ACTUALLY
OCCUR...THE RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE REDUCED. IF THEY DO NOT
OCCUR AND THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FROM THE NWPS AND ENP MODELS ARE
TOO HIGH...THEN THE RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHER
AND BEACH GOERS WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE SURF. IT
IS NOT KNOWN FOR SURE AT THIS POINT IF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE SHORTER PERIOD WAVES. IF THEY ARE NOT
OVERDONE...THE SHORT PERIOD WAVES MAY MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE AND
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATERS THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 281151
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
351 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW JUST OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER (OR MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES) IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES BUT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE SOMEWHAT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT
POPS AROUND 30% DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE WORTH MENTIONING IS POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK SNEAKER WAVES OCCURING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LONG PERIOD SWELL INTERACTS WITH A HIGH TIDE. (SEE
MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW).



&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT HIGH
CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION AND MAINTAIN LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL TURN
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL WAIT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE TIMING. AS FAR AS THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT GOES, FORE RUNNERS
TO A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL BORN FROM A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SNEAKER WAVES WITH THE BUILDING SWELL CONTINUES TO POSE A
THREAT BUT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING TIDE. I THINK
NWPS IS OVER DOING THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WHICH WOULD
MEAN A HIGHER RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES. BEACH GOERS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION WITH THE BUILDING SWELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 281151
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
351 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW JUST OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER (OR MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES) IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES BUT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE SOMEWHAT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT
POPS AROUND 30% DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE WORTH MENTIONING IS POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK SNEAKER WAVES OCCURING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LONG PERIOD SWELL INTERACTS WITH A HIGH TIDE. (SEE
MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW).



&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT HIGH
CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION AND MAINTAIN LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL TURN
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL WAIT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE TIMING. AS FAR AS THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT GOES, FORE RUNNERS
TO A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL BORN FROM A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SNEAKER WAVES WITH THE BUILDING SWELL CONTINUES TO POSE A
THREAT BUT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING TIDE. I THINK
NWPS IS OVER DOING THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WHICH WOULD
MEAN A HIGHER RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES. BEACH GOERS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION WITH THE BUILDING SWELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 272207
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
207 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SEND
CLOUDS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW JUST OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ARE BRINGING CLOUDS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER (OR MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES) IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BUT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH
BOTH THE LOW AND THE TROUGH. THIS IS VERIFIED BY RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS SHOWING VERY FEW RETURNS ACROSS OUR AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD BRING US
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTER CONDITIONS. THERE`S STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS, SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR LATE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHER PORTIONS WHERE
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SENDS BOUNTIFUL MID AND
HIGH LAYER CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. REDUCED LONG WAVE COOLING WILL
MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE
VALLEYS. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUD AND
FOG...THOUGH PATCHES OF MISTY HAZE WILL STILL PROBABLY FORM THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGING BEHIND A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A
THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES WITH THE FORERUNNERS OF THIS SWELL ON WED
BUT THE RISK LOOKS FAIRLY LOW WITH SHORTER PERIOD WAVE GROUPS IN
THE MIX.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 272207
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
207 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SEND
CLOUDS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW JUST OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ARE BRINGING CLOUDS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER (OR MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES) IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BUT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH
BOTH THE LOW AND THE TROUGH. THIS IS VERIFIED BY RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS SHOWING VERY FEW RETURNS ACROSS OUR AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD BRING US
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTER CONDITIONS. THERE`S STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS, SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR LATE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHER PORTIONS WHERE
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SENDS BOUNTIFUL MID AND
HIGH LAYER CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. REDUCED LONG WAVE COOLING WILL
MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE
VALLEYS. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUD AND
FOG...THOUGH PATCHES OF MISTY HAZE WILL STILL PROBABLY FORM THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGING BEHIND A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A
THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES WITH THE FORERUNNERS OF THIS SWELL ON WED
BUT THE RISK LOOKS FAIRLY LOW WITH SHORTER PERIOD WAVE GROUPS IN
THE MIX.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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