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000
FXUS66 KEKA 301159
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
459 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE
EXTREME E PACIFIC TODAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING THE MID 80S.

LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SEA FOG TO SPREAD UP THE COASTLINE
BEFORE N FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT E EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROF DIGS OVER THE E PACIFIC. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID-WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH
ANY STORMS MOVING NE-E OUT OF THE AREA. CAPE AREAS ARE VERY
NARROW DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER AVAILABLE CAPE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SLOW
NE-SW STORM MOTION MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY STORM TO DRIFT BACK
TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE WEAKENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE LATE
IN THE WEEK...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENED TODAY AND
INTERACTED WITH AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED. GALE
FORCE GUSTS WERE DEPICTED BY THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS LATE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ470-475.

$$

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SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 301159
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
459 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE
EXTREME E PACIFIC TODAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING THE MID 80S.

LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SEA FOG TO SPREAD UP THE COASTLINE
BEFORE N FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT E EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROF DIGS OVER THE E PACIFIC. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID-WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH
ANY STORMS MOVING NE-E OUT OF THE AREA. CAPE AREAS ARE VERY
NARROW DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER AVAILABLE CAPE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SLOW
NE-SW STORM MOTION MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY STORM TO DRIFT BACK
TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE WEAKENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE LATE
IN THE WEEK...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENED TODAY AND
INTERACTED WITH AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED. GALE
FORCE GUSTS WERE DEPICTED BY THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS LATE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ470-475.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





000
FXUS66 KEKA 292151
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
251 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MID EVENING
TONIGHT....MAINLY OUT TOWARD THE COAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER
ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THE CAPE. SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND THIS WAVE
LATER TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERLY
FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE ROBUST ACROSS THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON MAY NOT WARM UP MUCH ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY NEAR THE OCEAN AND
PROBABLY NOT THE BEST DAY TO HEAD TO THE BEACH UNLESS GUSTY WIND
IS DESIRED. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BOTH IN THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SUNDAY. IT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 70F OR EXCEED 70F BY A FEW DEGREES
AT THE COAST. INLAND AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
APART FROM THE STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES ON SAT...IT IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON
MONDAY AS A DISTINCT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN EMERGES. THE GFS AND
NAM12 DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
DRIER. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TRINITY COUNTY
FOR MONDAY. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE GFS INDICATES IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. THE COAST
WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG ON MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
TUE INTO WED. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A COOLING TREND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS WERE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFERED ON THE RATE OF EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THE CLOSED LOW WILL FORM.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW OR CUT-OFF. CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF WHICH HAS NOT BEEN AS WET WITH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
GENERATION. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM TUE TO FRI. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THE DETAILS AND TIMING
REMAIN VERY ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT WITH THE CONVECTIVE INDICES
VARYING AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL RUN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH
MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD IT. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO FRI. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
THUNDER EVEN OUT TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
PINCHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE COASTAL HAZARDS AS WINDS RAMP UP AGAIN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN THE
GALE WATCHES WERE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OFFSHORE
REACHING 40 KT AND GUSTS NEARSHORE REACHING 30-35 KT. LARGE STEEP
WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A NW
SWELL DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
THEN WEAKEN AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST AND COLLABORATIVELY
ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF LOWER WINDS
AND SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. KML


&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
PASSING SHORTWAVE CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. THE CURRENT
GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT
BUT I HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THE DECREASING WINDS
TOMORROW. ADVISORIES SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BUT THE ADVISORIES NORTH OF
THE CAPE ARE SET TO EXPIRE BY MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOWER WINDS(15 TO 20 KT)
AND SEAS FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE STEEP WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS
WHILE A MIDDLE PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A BETTER WINDOW FOR SETTLING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11PM PDT SAT FOR PZZ450.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3AM PDT SAT FOR PZZ470.
 GALE WARNING FROM 3AM SAT TO 3AM PDT SUN FOR PZZ470-475.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11PM PDT SAT FOR PZZ455.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3AM PDT SAT FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





000
FXUS66 KEKA 291050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
350 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXCEPT FOR SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST...MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE WEST COAST
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST. THE DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAVE ALREADY MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE A SHOWER DEVELOP OVER
THE DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR SOME DRIZZLE TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AFTER
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...SO A FROST ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME DESPITE LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD INTERIOR VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO
COUNTIES.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN
DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
OVER THIS LOW RESULTING IN DECENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. DRYING AND WARMING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME INTERIOR AREAS AND
APPROACH 70F NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH/LOW TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THIS LOW COULD BECOME CUTOFF AND DRIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK WOULD BE IDEAL FOR MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THIS MORNING
WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KUKI.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING.  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING
THE WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-470.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





000
FXUS66 KEKA 291050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
350 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXCEPT FOR SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST...MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE WEST COAST
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST. THE DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAVE ALREADY MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE A SHOWER DEVELOP OVER
THE DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR SOME DRIZZLE TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AFTER
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...SO A FROST ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME DESPITE LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD INTERIOR VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO
COUNTIES.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN
DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
OVER THIS LOW RESULTING IN DECENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. DRYING AND WARMING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME INTERIOR AREAS AND
APPROACH 70F NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH/LOW TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THIS LOW COULD BECOME CUTOFF AND DRIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK WOULD BE IDEAL FOR MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THIS MORNING
WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KUKI.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING.  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING
THE WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-470.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





000
FXUS66 KEKA 282257
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
357 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT PUSH OF LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW LATER ON
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.
AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST
OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FAR NW CAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
SURFACE RIDGING WILL LIKELY ERODE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTH COAST ON FRIDAY. ANY RAIN FROM THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE 500MB SHORT-WAVE
SWOOPS DOWN IN BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY OUT
TOWARD THE COAST AND INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS. THE
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX OUT THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRINGS BACK UP OFFSHORE. RIDGE
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON SATURDAY. WARMING
IN THE INTERIOR AND AT THE COAST IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST WILL PROBABLY MAKE FOR A LESS THAN
IDEAL DAY TO HEAD TO THE BEACHES. MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
BOTH AT THE COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SUNDAY. IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAST THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY ON THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO APPROACH 70F OR EXCEED 70F BY A FEW DEGREES.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON
MONDAY AS A DISTINCT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN EMERGES. THE COAST WILL
LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG MON INTO TUE. THE
TIMING IS STILL NOT CERTAIN THOUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING BY TUE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
A COOLING TREND ACROSS THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS WERE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFERED ON THE RATE OF EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL FORM.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER
WEST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOCATION OF THE CUT-OFF. CONTINUED TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND KEEP A BROAD BRUSH AND VAGUE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED INTO THU. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THE DETAILS REMAIN VERY
ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT WITH TOO MUCH VARIABILITY IN THE DATA. THE
ECMWF DOES SHOW WRAP AROUND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THU AS
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY PIN-WHEELS WESTWARD INTO NW CA. THUS FEEL THIS
WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HUMBOLDT
BAY WHERE MVFR CEILINGS BEGAN TO IMPACT KACV. TYPICALLY ONCE THESE
CEILINGS START TO DEVELOP THEY STAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS EARLY THIS EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT MFR TO STICK AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO TO
KCEC AND OTHER PARTS OF THE COAST WITH CEILINGS REACHING IFR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY LATER THURSDAY
MORNING. KML

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
PASSING SHORTWAVE CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. THE CURRENT
GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT
BUT I HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THE DECREASING WINDS
TOMORROW. ADVISORIES SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BUT THE ADVISORIES NORTH OF
THE CAPE ARE SET TO EXPIRE BY MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOWER WINDS(15 TO 20 KT)
AND SEAS FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE STEEP WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS
WHILE A MIDDLE PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A BETTER WINDOW FOR SETTLING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9AM PDT FRI FOR PZZ450-470.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3AM PDT SAT FOR PZZ455.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 3AM PDT FRI FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





000
FXUS66 KEKA 282257
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
357 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT PUSH OF LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW LATER ON
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.
AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST
OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FAR NW CAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
SURFACE RIDGING WILL LIKELY ERODE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTH COAST ON FRIDAY. ANY RAIN FROM THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE 500MB SHORT-WAVE
SWOOPS DOWN IN BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY OUT
TOWARD THE COAST AND INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS. THE
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX OUT THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRINGS BACK UP OFFSHORE. RIDGE
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON SATURDAY. WARMING
IN THE INTERIOR AND AT THE COAST IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST WILL PROBABLY MAKE FOR A LESS THAN
IDEAL DAY TO HEAD TO THE BEACHES. MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
BOTH AT THE COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SUNDAY. IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAST THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY ON THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO APPROACH 70F OR EXCEED 70F BY A FEW DEGREES.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON
MONDAY AS A DISTINCT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN EMERGES. THE COAST WILL
LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG MON INTO TUE. THE
TIMING IS STILL NOT CERTAIN THOUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING BY TUE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
A COOLING TREND ACROSS THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS WERE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFERED ON THE RATE OF EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL FORM.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER
WEST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOCATION OF THE CUT-OFF. CONTINUED TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND KEEP A BROAD BRUSH AND VAGUE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED INTO THU. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THE DETAILS REMAIN VERY
ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT WITH TOO MUCH VARIABILITY IN THE DATA. THE
ECMWF DOES SHOW WRAP AROUND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THU AS
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY PIN-WHEELS WESTWARD INTO NW CA. THUS FEEL THIS
WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HUMBOLDT
BAY WHERE MVFR CEILINGS BEGAN TO IMPACT KACV. TYPICALLY ONCE THESE
CEILINGS START TO DEVELOP THEY STAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS EARLY THIS EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT MFR TO STICK AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO TO
KCEC AND OTHER PARTS OF THE COAST WITH CEILINGS REACHING IFR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY LATER THURSDAY
MORNING. KML

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
PASSING SHORTWAVE CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. THE CURRENT
GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT
BUT I HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THE DECREASING WINDS
TOMORROW. ADVISORIES SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BUT THE ADVISORIES NORTH OF
THE CAPE ARE SET TO EXPIRE BY MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOWER WINDS(15 TO 20 KT)
AND SEAS FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE STEEP WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS
WHILE A MIDDLE PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A BETTER WINDOW FOR SETTLING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9AM PDT FRI FOR PZZ450-470.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3AM PDT SAT FOR PZZ455.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 3AM PDT FRI FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





000
FXUS66 KEKA 281058
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
358 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST AND WARMING IN THE
INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES ALONG THE HUMBOLDT COAST
THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH
OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY
AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT THE COAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
SQUASHING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT THAT ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A SHOWER IMPACT DEL NORTE COUNTY BRIEFLY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL COLD INTERIOR VALLEYS. FROST EXTENT IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN
DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
OVER THIS LOW RESULTING IN DECENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. DRYING AND WARMING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME INTERIOR AREAS AND
APPROACH 70F NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THIS LOW COULD BECOME CUTOFF AND DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK WOULD BE IDEAL FOR
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...PESKY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN MVFR TO
PERIODIC LIFR CEILINGS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED NEAR CEC. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD BACK ONTO THE COAST
DURING THE EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT ACV
AND AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY/EEL RIVER DELTA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO
RETURN TO BOTH COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT UKI...SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS MAY DRIFT PAST THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE RELAXED SLIGHTLY FROM THEIR
AFTERNOON PEAK YESTERDAY...THEY REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG AT AROUND
20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT AT TIMES. AS A
RESULT...STEEP NORTHERLY SEAS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
ADDITION TO A BUILDING 14 SECOND NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...LIKELY
BUILDING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
KT OR SO. AS A RESULT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL OF THE WATERS...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE STORM SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 7 TO 10
FEET. THIS MODEST REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS WINDS
WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE IN A MORE MEANINGFUL WAY THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...AND RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





000
FXUS66 KEKA 281058
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
358 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST AND WARMING IN THE
INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES ALONG THE HUMBOLDT COAST
THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH
OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY
AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT THE COAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
SQUASHING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT THAT ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A SHOWER IMPACT DEL NORTE COUNTY BRIEFLY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL COLD INTERIOR VALLEYS. FROST EXTENT IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN
DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
OVER THIS LOW RESULTING IN DECENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. DRYING AND WARMING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME INTERIOR AREAS AND
APPROACH 70F NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THIS LOW COULD BECOME CUTOFF AND DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK WOULD BE IDEAL FOR
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...PESKY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN MVFR TO
PERIODIC LIFR CEILINGS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED NEAR CEC. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD BACK ONTO THE COAST
DURING THE EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT ACV
AND AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY/EEL RIVER DELTA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO
RETURN TO BOTH COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT UKI...SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS MAY DRIFT PAST THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE RELAXED SLIGHTLY FROM THEIR
AFTERNOON PEAK YESTERDAY...THEY REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG AT AROUND
20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT AT TIMES. AS A
RESULT...STEEP NORTHERLY SEAS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
ADDITION TO A BUILDING 14 SECOND NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...LIKELY
BUILDING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
KT OR SO. AS A RESULT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL OF THE WATERS...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE STORM SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 7 TO 10
FEET. THIS MODEST REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS WINDS
WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE IN A MORE MEANINGFUL WAY THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...AND RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





000
FXUS66 KEKA 272230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST AND WARMING IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. WRAP AROUND
NE FLOW AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
SATELLITE HAS BEEN SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL RANGES AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE.

THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SUNNIER AND WARMER WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AFTER THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE INTERIOR
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A VERY
PLEASANT DAY OUTDOORS...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEACHES.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW AND CLIPS FAR NW CAL IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS DRY
COLD FRONT WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OFFSHORE AND OVER THE REGION. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE.
BRISK NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE SHOULD MIX OUT
THE LOW CLOUDS FRI NIGHT.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AFTER THIS S/W TROUGH PASSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW. THE
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING NE-E WIND
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING
BOTH AT THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR. COASTAL AREAS MAY BE IN
STORE FOR A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY IF THE THERMAL TROUGH SUPPRESSES
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ANOTHER SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING A COOLING TREND AND AN INCREASE
IN COASTAL LOW CLOUDS NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFERED ON THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND THE LOCATION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW...IF ONE FORMS. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ADDED A BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING INTO WED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY IF THE CLOSED LOW OR CUT-OFF DEVELOPS SW OF CAPE
MENDO AS THE ECMWF INDICATES.

&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING SHORTWAVE BROUGHT COASTAL STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC IFR REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR DOMINATING AT KCEC AND KACV.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD MAKE WAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. KML

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE PINCHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
35 TO 40 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THE GALE WARNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL AS THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE OTHER MARINE ZONES. THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
STILL LOOKS MARGINAL FOR A GALE WARNING SO HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY. A
WEAK WAVE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT NOT
FOR LONG AS STRONGER RIDGING DEVELOPS AND SUSTAINS STRONG NORTH
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE, STEEP WAVES WILL CONTINUE SO LONG
AS THE NORTH WINDS ARE KICKING. ON TOP OF THAT, A MIDDLE PERIOD
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THE WATERS THIS WEEK AND MAX OUT ON THURSDAY
AROUND 8 TO 9 FT AT 15 SECONDS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO
APPROACH 10 TO 15 FT BY THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3AM PDT SAT FOR PZZ450-455.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3AM PDT MON FOR PZZ470.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





000
FXUS66 KEKA 272230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST AND WARMING IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. WRAP AROUND
NE FLOW AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
SATELLITE HAS BEEN SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL RANGES AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE.

THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SUNNIER AND WARMER WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AFTER THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE INTERIOR
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A VERY
PLEASANT DAY OUTDOORS...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEACHES.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW AND CLIPS FAR NW CAL IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS DRY
COLD FRONT WITH FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OFFSHORE AND OVER THE REGION. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE.
BRISK NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE SHOULD MIX OUT
THE LOW CLOUDS FRI NIGHT.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AFTER THIS S/W TROUGH PASSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW. THE
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING NE-E WIND
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING
BOTH AT THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR. COASTAL AREAS MAY BE IN
STORE FOR A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY IF THE THERMAL TROUGH SUPPRESSES
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ANOTHER SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING A COOLING TREND AND AN INCREASE
IN COASTAL LOW CLOUDS NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFERED ON THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND THE LOCATION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW...IF ONE FORMS. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ADDED A BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING INTO WED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY IF THE CLOSED LOW OR CUT-OFF DEVELOPS SW OF CAPE
MENDO AS THE ECMWF INDICATES.

&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING SHORTWAVE BROUGHT COASTAL STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC IFR REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR DOMINATING AT KCEC AND KACV.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD MAKE WAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. KML

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE PINCHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
35 TO 40 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THE GALE WARNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL AS THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE OTHER MARINE ZONES. THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
STILL LOOKS MARGINAL FOR A GALE WARNING SO HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY. A
WEAK WAVE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT NOT
FOR LONG AS STRONGER RIDGING DEVELOPS AND SUSTAINS STRONG NORTH
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE, STEEP WAVES WILL CONTINUE SO LONG
AS THE NORTH WINDS ARE KICKING. ON TOP OF THAT, A MIDDLE PERIOD
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THE WATERS THIS WEEK AND MAX OUT ON THURSDAY
AROUND 8 TO 9 FT AT 15 SECONDS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO
APPROACH 10 TO 15 FT BY THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3AM PDT SAT FOR PZZ450-455.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3AM PDT MON FOR PZZ470.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG





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