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000
FXUS66 KEKA 172337 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
425 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING DRIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...22Z RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRAZE THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH EVEN LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE REDWOOD COAST. BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THESE
LOCATIONS TO REFLECT THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. IT ALSO LOOKS TO
BE A SITUATION WHERE WE WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW
PRECIPITATION. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT, MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A DIGGING TROF OVER THE W UNITED STATES DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE N. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DIGS AND SHIFTS E.
BUT IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW LOW AND WHAT THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE. AGAIN, BUMPED UP POPS TO REFLECT THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THE COASTAL STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE CRESCENT CITY AIRPORT AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT SHORT PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 0600Z AND THEN IFR AFTER 1000Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS. THE WINDS
WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET. KENNEDY

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WAS CANCELLED. LIGHT WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FEET WITH A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 16 SECONDS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS UPCOMING EVENT. KENNEDY

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 172220
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
320 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING DRIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...22Z RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRAZE THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH EVEN LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE REDWOOD COAST. BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THESE
LOCATIONS TO REFLECT THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. IT ALSO LOOKS TO
BE A SITUATION WHERE WE WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW
PRECIPITATION. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT, MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A DIGGING TROF OVER THE W UNITED STATES DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE N. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DIGS AND SHIFTS E.
BUT IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW LOW AND WHAT THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE. AGAIN, BUMPED UP POPS TO REFLECT THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THE COASTAL STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FRONT HAS MOVED PASSED THE CRESCENT CITY AIRPORT AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT SHORT PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 0600Z AND THEN IFR AFTER 1000Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS. THE WINDS
WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET. KENNEDY

&&

.MARINE...HE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WAS CANCELLED. LIGHT WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SWELL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FEET WITH A
DOMINATE PERIOD OF 16 SECONDS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS UPCOMING EVENT. KENNEDY

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 171157
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
457 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM IMPACTS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AS THE W
COAST UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. A LARGE MASS OF LOW
CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON IR FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE PIX. THIS
CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD INLAND TODAY...MAINLY N OF CAPE MENDO. LOW
CLOUDS EXTEND UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO THE SE CORNER
OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS MAY ERODE BEFORE THE LARGER BANK
OF LOW CLOUDS PUSH INLAND. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN TODAY AS WELL. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH THIS FRONT...WITH
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES...WITH PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF N DEL NORTE COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRAZE THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH EVEN LIGHTER PRECIP EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REDWOOD
COAST AND NORTH COAST INTERIOR.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DIGGING TROF OVER THE W
UNITED STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN
INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE N. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DIGS AND SHIFTS E. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL BY TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK WITH SOCIAL MEDIA PRODUCTS LIKELY TO FOLLOW.
/SEC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY AS AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
WESTWARD. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA
THIS WEEKEND GENERATING ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS WHICH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO THE LARGE WESTERLY SWELLS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 170405
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
905 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THURSDAY. THEN...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM
IMPACTS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF BRINGING
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...11-4U SAT IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND EXPANDING TOWARDS THE COAST. MESO
MODELS SHOW BL MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL
RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE DEL NORTE COAST
WHERE THE RAP SHOWS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER 09Z...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH CLEARING MAY
OCCUR. SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LESS HIGH CLOUDS OVER CWA THIS
EVENING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL MAKE THREAT OF FROST POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE
RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FG AND
INCREASE SKY COVER OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST WHILE
REDUCING SKY COVER INLAND THROUGH THU MORNING. UPDATED AVIATION
AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND WILL PLAGUE THE COAST N OF CAPE MENDO THROUGH THE NIGHT. MESO
MODELS SHOW WINDS ALONG THE COAST VARYING BETWEEN ONSHORE AND
OFFSHORE MAKING FOR A TRICKY FCST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH PERIODS OF VFR AS WINDS SHIFT
OFFSHORE. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. /KENNEDY
&&

.MARINE...NEAR GALE TO GALES CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN WATERS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...ELECTED TO
ALLOW GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AND HOISTED A SCA THROUGH THU
MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND GENERATES
ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. /KENNEDY
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 430 PM PDT...
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUD COVER ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY.
MOST RAIN WILL BE RESTRICTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.10" OR LESS AND PERHAPS UP TO 0.25" IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
DEL NORTE COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AGAIN, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT.

A MORE PROMINENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DIGS
SOUTHWARD. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING
SHORTWAVES IN THE EXTENDED, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOOLS HAVE SIGNALED A TREND TOWARDS A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL
TIME OF THIS SYSTEM BUT PAST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. AS A RESULT, STARTING ON
MONDAY POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM AN ALL MODEL BLEND WITH THE CAP
UP IN 50 THE PERCENT RANGE AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST.KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THU FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THU FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 162331 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
430 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THURSDAY. THEN...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM
IMPACTS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF BRINGING
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUD COVER ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY.
MOST RAIN WILL BE RESTRICTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.10" OR LESS AND PERHAPS UP TO 0.25" IN THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL
NORTE COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AGAIN, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT.

A MORE PROMINENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DIGS
SOUTHWARD. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING
SHORTWAVES IN THE EXTENDED, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOOLS HAVE SIGNALED A TREND TOWARDS A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL
TIME OF THIS SYSTEM BUT PAST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. AS A RESULT, STARTING ON
MONDAY POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM AN ALL MODEL BLEND WITH THE CAP
UP IN 50 THE PERCENT RANGE AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST.KML

&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN BECOMING MVFR AFTER
0900Z DUE TO CEILINGS. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KENNEDY

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SO KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 9:00 PM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THESE WATERS ONCE THE GALE IS CANCELLED.  THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS CONTINUES UNTIL 9:00 PM THIS
EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WAS
CANCELLED AS THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
GENERATE ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. KENNEDY


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 162229
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THURSDAY. THEN..BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM
IMPACTS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF BRINGING
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUD COVER ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY.
MOST RAIN WILL BE RESTRICTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.10" OR LESS AND PERHAPS UP TO 0.25" IN THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL
NORTE COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AGAIN, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT.

A MORE PROMINENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DIGS
SOUTHWARD. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING
SHORTWAVES IN THE EXTENDED, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOOLS HAVE SIGNALED A TREND TOWARDS A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL
TIME OF THIS SYSTEM BUT PAST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. AS A RESULT, STARTING ON
MONDAY POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM AN ALL MODEL BLEND WITH THE CAP
UP IN 50 THE PERCENT RANGE AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST.KML

&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN BECOMING MVFR AFTER
0900Z DUE TO CEILINGS. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KENNEDY

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO
THE WEST. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SO KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 9:00 PM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THESE WATERS ONCE THE GALE IS CANCELLED.  THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS CONTINUES UNTIL 9:00 PM THIS
EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WAS
CANCELLED AS THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
GENERATE ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. KENNEDY


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 161134
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
RAINS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MORE RAINS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS THINNED OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
LEVELS CLOSE TO FORECAST ACROSS VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY.
ALSO...SURFACE WINDS ARE DECOUPLING ACROSS THAT AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE KEPT FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DID WORD
TEMPERATURE RANGE AS MID TO UPPER 30S. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF
MOSTLY LIGHT FOG COVER MUCH OF THE HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER
VALLEY AREAS...EXTENDING N TO NEAR TRINIDAD. THIS CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO
THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND BY EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE PAC NW TODAY...THEN SHIFT E
ON THU. AN UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG ALONG THE PAC NW COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES TOWARD S
CA. HAVE CONTINUED POPS ABOVE CLIMO THU AFTERNOON THRU THU
NIGHT...MAINLY N OF CAPE MENDOCINO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH STORM TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
THE N 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.

MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROF
DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY
MON OR TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS THICKNESSES FALL ACROSS THE W UNITED
STATES. THIS TROF HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS REDUCING CEILINGS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS RELAXING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA
THIS WEEKEND GENERATING ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS WHICH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING PZZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ455-470.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 160126 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
626 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH NIGHTTIME AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LIGHT RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE ON THE MARINE FORECAST. THE SHORT
PERIOD WAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AT BUOY 14 WERE ABOUT 3 FEET
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THEY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT
SLOWED DOWN TREND. MKK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 310 PM PDT...

SHORT-TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THUR NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES WERE
COOLER INLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION FROM MONDAY`S TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO FROST ADVISORY CONDITIONS AROUND
HAYFORK AND WEAVERVILLE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED FROST
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA WED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER DOES
NOT LOOK AS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT WILL STILL
HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. FURTHER NORTH
STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AS INVERSION WEAKENED WITH COOL
ADVECTION. WILL STILL SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE NORTH OF
THE CAPE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER VALLEY. NEXT TROUGH TO
BE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY THUR NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE. THIS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE FASTER GFS. AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT WITH TOTAL VALUES LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH IN HEAVIEST AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF MENDO COUNTY AS SOUTHERN END OF
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO CUT OFF AND COULD SEE SOME
UPSLOPE SE FLOW. LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTMS
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY. DEAN

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY) THE GLOBAL LONG WAVE
GEO POTENTIAL HEIGHT MODEL INDICATES FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH UNMENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON
MONDAY AS MODELS PROG A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THIS TROUGH BUT CONTAIN DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF RAIN IN THE LONG RANGE, HOWEVER, THAT IS
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS
TIME. THUS, ALL BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
CLIMO POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH MODELS SHIFTING
THE MAIN BOUT OF RAIN TO LATER MONDAY. KML

AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...A PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
IS GENERATING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET, ALLOWING THE WINDS TO EASE. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL. INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN
WINDS.

MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AND MIXED SEAS AROUND
8-12 FT. THE 19Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS AROUND 25 KT ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS AND 25-30 KT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS IS
ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST AND CONFIRMS THE HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY
THE GALE WARNING, ARE ON TRACK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HAVING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. THIS MEANS THE WINDS IN ZONE 475 MIGHT DROP BELOW GALE
FORCE, PUTTING THE GALE WARNING IN QUESTION. BUT SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED AND NEAR HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA, SO LEAVING THE
GALE WARNING OUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MIGHT BE EASIER THAN CHANGING
ONE WARNING FOR ANOTHER. THE NIGHT CREW WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS. WINDS WILL EASE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. A
LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM SHOULD
BEGIN MOVING THROUGH OUR WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ455-470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 152210
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
310 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH NIGHTTIME AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LIGHT RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT-TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THUR NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES WERE
COOLER INLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION FROM MONDAY`S TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO FROST ADVISORY CONDITIONS AROUND
HAYFORK AND WEAVERVILLE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED FROST
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA WED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER DOES
NOT LOOK AS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT WILL STILL
HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. FURTHER NORTH
STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AS INVERSION WEAKENED WITH COOL
ADVECTION. WILL STILL SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE NORTH OF
THE CAPE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER VALLEY. NEXT TROUGH TO
BE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY THUR NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE. THIS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE FASTER GFS. AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT WITH TOTAL VALUES LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH IN HEAVIEST AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF MENDO COUNTY AS SOUTHERN END OF
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO CUT OFF AND COULD SEE SOME
UPSLOPE SE FLOW. LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTMS
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY. DEAN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY) THE GLOBAL LONG WAVE
GEO POTENTIAL HEIGHT MODEL INDICATES FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH UNMENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON
MONDAY AS MODELS PROG A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THIS TROUGH BUT CONTAIN DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF RAIN IN THE LONG RANGE, HOWEVER, THAT IS
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS
TIME. THUS, ALL BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
CLIMO POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH MODELS SHIFTING
THE MAIN BOUT OF RAIN TO LATER MONDAY. KML

&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...A PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
IS GENERATING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET, ALLOWING THE WINDS TO EASE. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL. INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AND MIXED SEAS AROUND
8-12 FT. THE 19Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS AROUND 25 KT ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS AND 25-30 KT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS IS
ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST AND CONFIRMS THE HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY
THE GALE WARNING, ARE ON TRACK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HAVING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. THIS MEANS THE WINDS IN ZONE 475 MIGHT DROP BELOW GALE
FORCE, PUTTING THE GALE WARNING IN QUESTION. BUT SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED AND NEAR HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA, SO LEAVING THE
GALE WARNING OUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MIGHT BE EASIER THAN CHANGING
ONE WARNING FOR ANOTHER. THE NIGHT CREW WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS. WINDS WILL EASE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. A
LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM SHOULD
BEGIN MOVING THROUGH OUR WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...
FROST ADVISORY FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING FOR PZZ475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ450-455-470.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 151135
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
435 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH NIGHTTIME AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LIGHT RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY S OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING WEAK SHORTWAVE. MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS
IS SKIRTING THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
REDWOOD COAST AND WELL INLAND UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER LAND FROM THE EDGES WITH
DAYTIME MIXING. MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST AND SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND N OF CAPE
MENDOCINO.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE PAC NW ON WED...THEN
SHIFT E ON THU. AN UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG ALONG THE PAC NW
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES
TOWARD S CA. HAVE CONTINUED POPS ABOVE CLIMO LATE THU THRU THU
NIGHT...MAINLY N OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROF DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY MON OR TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THICKNESSES FALL ACROSS THE W UNITED STATES.

BEST CHANCE OF PATCHY INLAND FROST WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
VALLEY PORTIONS OF TRINITY COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
IN THE HWO. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENUF FOR A
FROST ADVISORY...BUT DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE LATER. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC
AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH STRATUS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS REDUCING CEILINGS. MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WATERS
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUBSEQUENTLY THE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
INCREASED. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM WED PZZ455-470.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM WED PZZ475.

&&

$$

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