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000
FXUS66 KEKA 222239
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO NW
CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE COASTAL RANGES
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL RAIN ON AND OFF IN CEC THIS AFTERNOON.
H2OV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A NICE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POINTED AT THE
NORTH COAST WHICH WILL BRING WELL NEEDED RAINFALL TO MOST OF
NORTHWEST CA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTITY STILL RESIDES FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS MAINTAIN SOME
FRONTAL ACTION NEAR THE ORCA BORDER BUT LIFTS IT TO THE NORTH AND
LEAVES THE CWA MAINLY DRY. BUT MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...AS A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
WETTER...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BFG/JT/STP

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH WEST COAST TONIGHT.  CEC
AIRPORT REPORTED IMTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE LATE MORNING.
BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY GUSTY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN HAS BASICALLY BEEN SLOW TO
ARRIVE BUT WILL REACH THE COAST TONIGHT... RAIN...WIND AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT STEADILY TREKS TOWARDS
THE AREA...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INCREASING STEEP WAVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY A LARGE WESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 221157
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
457 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN TO NW CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE
COASTAL RANGES OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SAT)...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE TAKING AIM AT NW CAL. LIGHT
RAIN HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT CRESCENT CITY THIS MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS NW CAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE NNW TO THE SSE. AS IT DRIPS INTO
SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY, MODEL INDICATE THE FRONT STALLING OUT
THEN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THU. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY STALLING OUT, A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THU AND INTO FRI. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AS A RESULT OF
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOLLOWING THIS
WARM FRONT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW CAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SOME DRYING AND CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WE`LL SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT AND WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST
THE COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN ON THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
COLD FRONT TO BE RATHER POTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER, MODELS DO DIFFER IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE AS WE GET
BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT AND BEGIN TO SEE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP.

OVERALL LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH
LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. BFG

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU WED)...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AS
A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MOVE OVER THE AREA.
MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS
IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND WETTER...COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. STP

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS A COLD FRONT SINKS
ACROSS NW CAL. DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LOOK FOR LIFR/IFR.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CEC WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. CEC WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP, WHICH IT
ALREADY HAS, THEN ACV LATE MORNING AND UKI IN THE EVENING. TIMING
SHOULD BE GOOD IN THE TAFS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
BFG

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10Z NEAR SHORE BUOYS WERE REPORTING SEAS OF 9 TO
10 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 12 SECONDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PEAK THIS EVENING DUE TO AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE
WATERS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE STEEP SEAS TO
BUILD...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS WILL
DECREASE ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470 FROM
9 AM THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE...CONTINUING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AS SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO THE
WEEKEND. STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 212222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THEN THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
SYSTEM IS DISPLAYING A FIREHOUSE TYPE PATTERN WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
FAVORED TERRAIN AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)....BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOW
COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE QPF. THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IN THE
ECMWF IS STILL NORTH OF THE GFS AND NOT AS DEEP SO WINDS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS MAY END UP BEING THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE WITH
REGARD TO IMPACT. WITH THAT SAID A DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE
COASTLINE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ONE ISSUE WITH REGARD TO HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW. WITH GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
COAST FLOW THE OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
REALIZED AND THIS MAY CAUSE QPF VALUES TO BE LIMITED AT LEAST ON THE
COASTAL HILLS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO DIFFER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER LAND FALLING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK. MKN



&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
CEC AND VICINITY PICKED UP NEARLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. AT UKI CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TODAY...THE REGION CAME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWED A PLETHORA A MOSTLY
HIGHER CLOUDS TO STREAMED ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTING REGIONAL AIRPORTS WILL BE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL START IN THE FAR
NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT... AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TA


&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED
MON EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN
REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. THE SCA WILL END IN
455 ON THU. MKN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 212222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THEN THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
SYSTEM IS DISPLAYING A FIREHOUSE TYPE PATTERN WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
FAVORED TERRAIN AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)....BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOW
COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE QPF. THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IN THE
ECMWF IS STILL NORTH OF THE GFS AND NOT AS DEEP SO WINDS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS MAY END UP BEING THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE WITH
REGARD TO IMPACT. WITH THAT SAID A DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE
COASTLINE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ONE ISSUE WITH REGARD TO HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW. WITH GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
COAST FLOW THE OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
REALIZED AND THIS MAY CAUSE QPF VALUES TO BE LIMITED AT LEAST ON THE
COASTAL HILLS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO DIFFER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER LAND FALLING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK. MKN



&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
CEC AND VICINITY PICKED UP NEARLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. AT UKI CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TODAY...THE REGION CAME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWED A PLETHORA A MOSTLY
HIGHER CLOUDS TO STREAMED ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTING REGIONAL AIRPORTS WILL BE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL START IN THE FAR
NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT... AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TA


&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED
MON EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN
REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. THE SCA WILL END IN
455 ON THU. MKN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 202232
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
332 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTH WEST
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. THEN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THE MIDDLE TO LATE THIS WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THU)...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL A LITTLE OVER AN
INCH OCCURRED AT COOSKIE MOUNTAIN RAWS IN THE KING RANGE. THE
FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POST FRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PRIMARILY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT OF THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME OF THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL ACROSS SOME
AREAS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
DEL NORTE COUNTY AND THE KING RANGE TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES IN
SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF TRINITY
COUNTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD...SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 6K FEET THIS EVENING WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MODIFYING QUICKLY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
PRETTY CHILLY WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FOR A FROST THREAT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER VALUES
OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES.


.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THRU MON)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH TROUGH MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDING ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING MONDAY. SURFACE FEATURES DIFFER THOUGH WITH ECMWF
LIFTING A WARM FRONT N INTO COASTAL HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES
BY NOON FRIDAY WHILE GFS SHIFTS IT SOUTH INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND
THEN PULLS IT NORTH ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER. THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
WHERE THE RAIN IS FOCUSED WITH THE EC HAVING THE RAIN MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE WHILE GFS HAS IT SOUTH OF THE CAPE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING IT BACK NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT
THE HIGHER RAINFALL PROBABILITIES NORTH OF THE CAPE PER ECMWF. BOTH
MODELS THEN SWING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BUT THEY WILL BE
MAINLY UP IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY BUT
MAINLY DRY. /DEAN


&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION CAUSED
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MORNING TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS THE REGION. LIFR TO MVFR PREVAILED FROM THE COASTAL AREAS
TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN VALLEY INTERIOR. CEC & ACV RECEIVED
RESPECTABLE RAINFALL WITH AREAS OVER THE POINTS RECEIVING WELL
OVER AN INCH. THERE WERE POCKETS OF SCATTERED SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS MAINTAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE AVIATION WEATHER
THREAT: DIURNAL AND DYNAMIC INFLUENCES CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING. TA


&&

.MARINE...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE SUBSIDING A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT WILL CONTINUE THE DECREASING TREND
TONIGHT. THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH SPEEDS 20-30 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT IN THOSE WATERS.

THE LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL PEAK AT 14 TO 16 FEET WITH PERIODS OF
14 TO 16 SECONDS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THERE IS A STATIONARY LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL
ENTER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS 12 FEET AT 14 SECONDS.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ABOUT FRIDAY AND THOUGH THE DETAILS DIFFER
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED.  /DEAN


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 202232
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
332 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTH WEST
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. THEN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THE MIDDLE TO LATE THIS WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THU)...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL A LITTLE OVER AN
INCH OCCURRED AT COOSKIE MOUNTAIN RAWS IN THE KING RANGE. THE
FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POST FRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PRIMARILY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT OF THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME OF THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL ACROSS SOME
AREAS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
DEL NORTE COUNTY AND THE KING RANGE TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES IN
SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF TRINITY
COUNTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD...SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 6K FEET THIS EVENING WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MODIFYING QUICKLY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
PRETTY CHILLY WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FOR A FROST THREAT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER VALUES
OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES.


.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THRU MON)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH TROUGH MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDING ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING MONDAY. SURFACE FEATURES DIFFER THOUGH WITH ECMWF
LIFTING A WARM FRONT N INTO COASTAL HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES
BY NOON FRIDAY WHILE GFS SHIFTS IT SOUTH INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND
THEN PULLS IT NORTH ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER. THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
WHERE THE RAIN IS FOCUSED WITH THE EC HAVING THE RAIN MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE WHILE GFS HAS IT SOUTH OF THE CAPE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING IT BACK NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT
THE HIGHER RAINFALL PROBABILITIES NORTH OF THE CAPE PER ECMWF. BOTH
MODELS THEN SWING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BUT THEY WILL BE
MAINLY UP IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY BUT
MAINLY DRY. /DEAN


&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION CAUSED
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MORNING TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS THE REGION. LIFR TO MVFR PREVAILED FROM THE COASTAL AREAS
TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN VALLEY INTERIOR. CEC & ACV RECEIVED
RESPECTABLE RAINFALL WITH AREAS OVER THE POINTS RECEIVING WELL
OVER AN INCH. THERE WERE POCKETS OF SCATTERED SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS MAINTAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE AVIATION WEATHER
THREAT: DIURNAL AND DYNAMIC INFLUENCES CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING. TA


&&

.MARINE...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE SUBSIDING A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT WILL CONTINUE THE DECREASING TREND
TONIGHT. THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH SPEEDS 20-30 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT IN THOSE WATERS.

THE LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL PEAK AT 14 TO 16 FEET WITH PERIODS OF
14 TO 16 SECONDS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THERE IS A STATIONARY LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL
ENTER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS 12 FEET AT 14 SECONDS.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED ABOUT FRIDAY AND THOUGH THE DETAILS DIFFER
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED.  /DEAN


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 201217
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
517 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NW CALIFORNIA
TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. A
POST FRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING A FEW
STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THU)...AS OF 10Z A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
ONSHORE BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL WAS ALREADY
APPROACHING AN INCH AT THE COOSKIE MOUNTAIN RAWS IN THE KING RANGE.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH A POST FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PRETTY REGULARLY OVERNIGHT. AS
A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ALONG WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF FORT BRAGG ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME OF THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.
DON`T THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SMALL HAIL...SO HAVE LEFT IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. MODELS ALSO HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LEFT
OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THERE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINK THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY AND THE KING RANGE TO AROUND 0.25
INCHES IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF
TRINITY COUNTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 6K FEET THIS EVENING WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING QUICKLY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
PRETTY CHILLY WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOME MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES GETTING
INTO THE LOWER 30S WHILE COOP MOS GUIDANCE AND OTHER MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 40. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE DAY CREW
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY PRODUCTS FOR
FROST WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE TOO
MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FOR A FROST THREAT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
TEMPORARILY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...BUT BY
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA AND
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WORKING
WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT FOCUSED ON
DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS
GENERALLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE CNRFC...GFS...AND ECMWF FOR THE QPF. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THRU MON)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF HIGH PRECIP AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO
SHIFT SE THRU THE AREA THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL VARY
WITH RESPECT TO ORIENTATION OF PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE AREA BY FRI.
BOTH MODELS APPEAR TO DEVELOP A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DIGGING E PAC TROF. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF RAPIDLY LIFTS THE FRONT N
OF THE AREA ON FRI WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITING THE AREA BEFORE
PRECIP RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT. THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT MORE SLOWLY N THRU THE AREA WITH RAINS FILLING BACK INTO THE
AREA ON FRI. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE HONED ONCE THERE
IS MORE CERTAINTY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE AMPLIFIED TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE VARIED GREATLY OVERNIGHT FROM LIFR TO
VFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BY THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TOWARDS MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
AND ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS SO HAVE
LEFT TS OUT OF THE COASTAL TAF SITES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
STP

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR ON WED. A
LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAS SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SWELL
WILL PEAK AT 14 TO 16 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS BY THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
MARINE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN
THE CWF AND HWO AND WILL REFRESH THE WX STORY HIGHLIGHTING SURF
HEIGHTS UP TO 21 FT. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 201217
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
517 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NW CALIFORNIA
TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. A
POST FRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING A FEW
STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THU)...AS OF 10Z A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
ONSHORE BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL WAS ALREADY
APPROACHING AN INCH AT THE COOSKIE MOUNTAIN RAWS IN THE KING RANGE.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH A POST FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PRETTY REGULARLY OVERNIGHT. AS
A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ALONG WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF FORT BRAGG ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME OF THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.
DON`T THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SMALL HAIL...SO HAVE LEFT IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. MODELS ALSO HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LEFT
OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THERE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINK THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY AND THE KING RANGE TO AROUND 0.25
INCHES IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF
TRINITY COUNTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 6K FEET THIS EVENING WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING QUICKLY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
PRETTY CHILLY WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOME MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES GETTING
INTO THE LOWER 30S WHILE COOP MOS GUIDANCE AND OTHER MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 40. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE DAY CREW
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY PRODUCTS FOR
FROST WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE TOO
MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FOR A FROST THREAT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
TEMPORARILY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...BUT BY
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA AND
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WORKING
WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT FOCUSED ON
DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS
GENERALLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE CNRFC...GFS...AND ECMWF FOR THE QPF. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THRU MON)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF HIGH PRECIP AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO
SHIFT SE THRU THE AREA THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL VARY
WITH RESPECT TO ORIENTATION OF PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE AREA BY FRI.
BOTH MODELS APPEAR TO DEVELOP A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DIGGING E PAC TROF. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF RAPIDLY LIFTS THE FRONT N
OF THE AREA ON FRI WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITING THE AREA BEFORE
PRECIP RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT. THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT MORE SLOWLY N THRU THE AREA WITH RAINS FILLING BACK INTO THE
AREA ON FRI. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE HONED ONCE THERE
IS MORE CERTAINTY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE AMPLIFIED TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE VARIED GREATLY OVERNIGHT FROM LIFR TO
VFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BY THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TOWARDS MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
AND ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS SO HAVE
LEFT TS OUT OF THE COASTAL TAF SITES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
STP

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR ON WED. A
LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAS SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SWELL
WILL PEAK AT 14 TO 16 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS BY THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
MARINE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN
THE CWF AND HWO AND WILL REFRESH THE WX STORY HIGHLIGHTING SURF
HEIGHTS UP TO 21 FT. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





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