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000
FXUS66 KEKA 061134
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
434 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING TO SINK SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS IS
KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE RIDGES. FOR THIS
REASON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THIS MORNING SOME
AREAS. PROTECTED AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FROSTY THIS MORNING. SOME
CLOUDS PERSIST AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD CLEAR THEM OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTY. FOR NOW KEPT THE FCST DRY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. THE LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY GOOD...BUT ONLY UP THROUGH 400
MB OR SO. ALSO THE MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT LIMITED.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING SO
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
AGAIN LIKE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP A BIT
MORE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SOUTH.

THURSDAY MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING THE LOW
DOWN THE STATE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH THIS MAY
BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY AND EASTERN MENDOCINO
COUNTIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS
BETTER LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAN THE NAM SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THUNDER. FRIDAY THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH SO THERE IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE
CHANCE IS LOWER SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY THE RIDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA BRIEFLY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR. LATER
IN THE WEEKEND COASTAL STRATUS IS LIKELY AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO
DIVERGE AS ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW STARTS TO MOVE DOWN THE COAST. THE
GFS REMAINS STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SEE CONTINUE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KUKI WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AND GUSTY AT KCEC LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KACV THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KACV.

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTERACTING
WITH AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. SUBSEQUENTLY THE WINDS AND STEEP SEAS
HAVE INCREASED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE  SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ003-004-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 061134
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
434 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING TO SINK SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS IS
KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE RIDGES. FOR THIS
REASON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THIS MORNING SOME
AREAS. PROTECTED AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FROSTY THIS MORNING. SOME
CLOUDS PERSIST AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD CLEAR THEM OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTY. FOR NOW KEPT THE FCST DRY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. THE LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY GOOD...BUT ONLY UP THROUGH 400
MB OR SO. ALSO THE MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT LIMITED.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING SO
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
AGAIN LIKE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP A BIT
MORE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SOUTH.

THURSDAY MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING THE LOW
DOWN THE STATE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH THIS MAY
BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY AND EASTERN MENDOCINO
COUNTIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS
BETTER LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAN THE NAM SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THUNDER. FRIDAY THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH SO THERE IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE
CHANCE IS LOWER SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY THE RIDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA BRIEFLY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR. LATER
IN THE WEEKEND COASTAL STRATUS IS LIKELY AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO
DIVERGE AS ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW STARTS TO MOVE DOWN THE COAST. THE
GFS REMAINS STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SEE CONTINUE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KUKI WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AND GUSTY AT KCEC LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KACV THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KACV.

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTERACTING
WITH AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. SUBSEQUENTLY THE WINDS AND STEEP SEAS
HAVE INCREASED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE  SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ003-004-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 052218
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
318 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. THUS A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR UKIAH. A FEW LOCATIONS...SUCH AS RUTH
AND HAYFORK...MAY REACH FREEZING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REFORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR HUMBOLDT...EASTERN TRINITY...AND
EXTREME NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES. IF CLOUDS DO NOT FORM FROST COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND IMPACT PLACES SUCH AS LAYTONVILLE...GARBERVILLE AND
BIG BAR. ANOTHER SHOT FOR COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASING INSTABILITY BUT VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT GENERALLY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN DECREASED WITH THIS UPDATE.

DRY WEATHER IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. COASTAL
CLOUDS MAY MAKE A MORE WIDESPREAD REAPPEARANCE WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD BUT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA WEAKENING ANY MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DIFFLUENT FLOW MOVING OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS ALSO AN EVER SO SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...SOME STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL RIDGES THIS MORNING HAS
GIVEN WAY TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE E
PAC INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE PAC NW HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSED NORTHERLY WINDS TO BE
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
LATER THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA...EXCEPT VC HUMBOLDT BAY AND IN THE
EEL RIVER VALLEY WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MVFR
CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT. AS OF 21Z...SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT
WERE REPORTED AT THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z THIS
MORNING SHOWED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LARGE
AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT NEAR PT SAINT GEORGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ003-004-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 052218
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
318 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. THUS A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR UKIAH. A FEW LOCATIONS...SUCH AS RUTH
AND HAYFORK...MAY REACH FREEZING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REFORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR HUMBOLDT...EASTERN TRINITY...AND
EXTREME NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES. IF CLOUDS DO NOT FORM FROST COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND IMPACT PLACES SUCH AS LAYTONVILLE...GARBERVILLE AND
BIG BAR. ANOTHER SHOT FOR COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASING INSTABILITY BUT VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT GENERALLY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN DECREASED WITH THIS UPDATE.

DRY WEATHER IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. COASTAL
CLOUDS MAY MAKE A MORE WIDESPREAD REAPPEARANCE WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD BUT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA WEAKENING ANY MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DIFFLUENT FLOW MOVING OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS ALSO AN EVER SO SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...SOME STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL RIDGES THIS MORNING HAS
GIVEN WAY TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE E
PAC INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE PAC NW HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSED NORTHERLY WINDS TO BE
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
LATER THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA...EXCEPT VC HUMBOLDT BAY AND IN THE
EEL RIVER VALLEY WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MVFR
CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT. AS OF 21Z...SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT
WERE REPORTED AT THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z THIS
MORNING SHOWED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LARGE
AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT NEAR PT SAINT GEORGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ003-004-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 051456
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
756 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED CLOUDS INTO THE
INTERIOR AND ALLOWED COASTAL AREAS TO CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
INTERIOR CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON LEAVING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. ACROSS THE INTERIOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS. WITH THE COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME AREAS OF INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA MAY
REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTHEAST...MAY BECOME THICK ALOFT. THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK AMAZING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS BUT KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRINGING
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE REGION BUT AT DIFFERING TIMES AND
STRENGTHS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AROUND CEC. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...ANY CLOUD COVER IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND AT CEC SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COAST TONIGHT
POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR OR IFR TO ACV AND/OR CEC.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR SEAS. WIND GUSTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO EXCEED 35 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WHICH MAY
REQUIRE UPGRADES TO GALE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ALSO
BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO BUILDING SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 051456
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
756 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED CLOUDS INTO THE
INTERIOR AND ALLOWED COASTAL AREAS TO CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
INTERIOR CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON LEAVING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. ACROSS THE INTERIOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS. WITH THE COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME AREAS OF INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA MAY
REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTHEAST...MAY BECOME THICK ALOFT. THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK AMAZING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS BUT KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRINGING
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE REGION BUT AT DIFFERING TIMES AND
STRENGTHS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AROUND CEC. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...ANY CLOUD COVER IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND AT CEC SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COAST TONIGHT
POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR OR IFR TO ACV AND/OR CEC.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR SEAS. WIND GUSTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO EXCEED 35 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WHICH MAY
REQUIRE UPGRADES TO GALE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ALSO
BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO BUILDING SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 051052
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MARINE STRATUS IS INFILTRATING THE COAST AND NEAR
COAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE NORTH COAST. THUS A SOMEWHAT CLOUDY MORNING IS EXPECTED COAST
SIDE HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ERODE THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A SUNNY BUT BREEZY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE INTERIOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...AND
DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHEAST...MAY
BECOME THICK ALOFT. THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK AMAZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE REGION BUT AT DIFFERING
TIMES AND STRENGTHS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KUKI THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KCEC AND KUKI WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC AND KUKI
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KACV THROUGH
THIS MORNING DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
KACV THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 051052
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MARINE STRATUS IS INFILTRATING THE COAST AND NEAR
COAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE NORTH COAST. THUS A SOMEWHAT CLOUDY MORNING IS EXPECTED COAST
SIDE HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ERODE THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A SUNNY BUT BREEZY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE INTERIOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...AND
DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHEAST...MAY
BECOME THICK ALOFT. THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK AMAZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE REGION BUT AT DIFFERING
TIMES AND STRENGTHS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KUKI THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KCEC AND KUKI WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC AND KUKI
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KACV THROUGH
THIS MORNING DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
KACV THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 051052
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MARINE STRATUS IS INFILTRATING THE COAST AND NEAR
COAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE NORTH COAST. THUS A SOMEWHAT CLOUDY MORNING IS EXPECTED COAST
SIDE HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ERODE THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A SUNNY BUT BREEZY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE INTERIOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...AND
DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHEAST...MAY
BECOME THICK ALOFT. THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK AMAZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE REGION BUT AT DIFFERING
TIMES AND STRENGTHS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KUKI THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KCEC AND KUKI WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC AND KUKI
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KACV THROUGH
THIS MORNING DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
KACV THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 051052
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MARINE STRATUS IS INFILTRATING THE COAST AND NEAR
COAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE NORTH COAST. THUS A SOMEWHAT CLOUDY MORNING IS EXPECTED COAST
SIDE HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ERODE THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A SUNNY BUT BREEZY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE INTERIOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...AND
DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHEAST...MAY
BECOME THICK ALOFT. THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK AMAZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE REGION BUT AT DIFFERING
TIMES AND STRENGTHS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KUKI THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KCEC AND KUKI WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC AND KUKI
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KACV THROUGH
THIS MORNING DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
KACV THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 042230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE STRATUS TO MIX OUT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT ALSO
HAS PUSHED THE STRATUS INTO THE NEAR COAST MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FLAT CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A RATHER STRONG
MID-LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD RESTRICT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STORM IF CONDITIONS WERE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY SO HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SAME.

AS THE FRONT MOVES ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT THE STRATUS SHOULD
REDEVELOP AND PUSH FARTHER INLAND...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE TRINITY
COUNTY VALLEYS. THUS CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EVER SO SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS.
CONSIDERING A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE BEEN PUSHING FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR TRINITY AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO VALLEYS TO REQUIRE FROST
ADVISORIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION...AND DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTHEAST...MAY BECOME THICK ALOFT. THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK AMAZING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS BUT KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING A
WEAK RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE REGION BUT AT
DIFFERING TIMES AND STRENGTHS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
/RPA


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS WAS FOUND WELL INLAND THIS MORNING WITH A DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND CLOUD TOPS NEAR 3K FEET AS REPORTED BY A PIREP VC
KACV THIS MORNING. AS OF 21Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
STRATUS DECREASING OVER DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES...WITH SOME
CU BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. A FEW HOURS OF VFR ARE
POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR COASTAL
SITES. FORECAST IS TRICKY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN FOR KCEC AND KACV...BUT WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF CLOUDS STRUGGLE TO FORM. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BESIDES
SOME CU BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...6 TO 8 FOOT SEAS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE NEAR SHORE
BUOYS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 25 KT BEING
OBSERVED...STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE. SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TODAY WITH WAVES AT 4 FT AROUND 20 SECONDS. AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED.
KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
AND HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AND
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 042230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE STRATUS TO MIX OUT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT ALSO
HAS PUSHED THE STRATUS INTO THE NEAR COAST MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FLAT CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A RATHER STRONG
MID-LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD RESTRICT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STORM IF CONDITIONS WERE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY SO HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SAME.

AS THE FRONT MOVES ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT THE STRATUS SHOULD
REDEVELOP AND PUSH FARTHER INLAND...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE TRINITY
COUNTY VALLEYS. THUS CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EVER SO SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS.
CONSIDERING A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE BEEN PUSHING FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR TRINITY AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO VALLEYS TO REQUIRE FROST
ADVISORIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION...AND DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTHEAST...MAY BECOME THICK ALOFT. THUS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK AMAZING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS BUT KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING A
WEAK RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE REGION BUT AT
DIFFERING TIMES AND STRENGTHS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
/RPA


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS WAS FOUND WELL INLAND THIS MORNING WITH A DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND CLOUD TOPS NEAR 3K FEET AS REPORTED BY A PIREP VC
KACV THIS MORNING. AS OF 21Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
STRATUS DECREASING OVER DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES...WITH SOME
CU BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. A FEW HOURS OF VFR ARE
POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR COASTAL
SITES. FORECAST IS TRICKY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN FOR KCEC AND KACV...BUT WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF CLOUDS STRUGGLE TO FORM. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BESIDES
SOME CU BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...6 TO 8 FOOT SEAS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE NEAR SHORE
BUOYS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 25 KT BEING
OBSERVED...STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE. SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TODAY WITH WAVES AT 4 FT AROUND 20 SECONDS. AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED.
KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
AND HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AND
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 040929
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
229 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY
AND THEN DIVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...11-3.9 IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE BED OF STRATUS
HANGING ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SOMEWHAT GLOOMY DAY FOR
COASTAL RESIDENTS WITH ONLY SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ON
TODAY AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BUT STANDARD CONVECTIVE
INDICES CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
FLOW WILL ALSO BE OUT OF THE WEST WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY DARN
DRY WITH ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THIS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. MODELS STILL CONTAIN SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SO
MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUSLY ASSIGNED CLIMO POPS TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. KML/JT


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV TODAY WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE
AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT KUKI LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WATERS IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS THURSDAY DUE TO SHORT PERIOD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 040929
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
229 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY
AND THEN DIVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...11-3.9 IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE BED OF STRATUS
HANGING ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SOMEWHAT GLOOMY DAY FOR
COASTAL RESIDENTS WITH ONLY SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ON
TODAY AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BUT STANDARD CONVECTIVE
INDICES CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
FLOW WILL ALSO BE OUT OF THE WEST WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY DARN
DRY WITH ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THIS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. MODELS STILL CONTAIN SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SO
MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUSLY ASSIGNED CLIMO POPS TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. KML/JT


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV TODAY WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE
AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT KUKI LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WATERS IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS THURSDAY DUE TO SHORT PERIOD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY DUE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 032241
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
341 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY
AND THEN DIVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS
STUBBORNLY INUNDATED ALONG THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. SCATTERING CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT BRIEF
AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ON MONDAY AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE BUT STANDARD CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. FLOW WILL ALSO BE OUT OF THE WEST WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY DARN DRY WITH
ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MODELS STILL CONTAIN SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SO ASSIGNED CLIMO
POPS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. KML/JT

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER BANK OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE CLOUD BANK EXTENDS A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THE
REDWOOD COAST THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHO A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED ALL THE WAY S TO ABOUT 15 NM OFFSHORE EKA. AN
ELONGATED EDDY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED BETWEEN KCEC AND PATRICK`S
POINT...AND THIS MAY PREVENT MUCH ADDITIONAL CLEARING AT KACV AND
KCEC. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. AS STRATUS
LOWERS OVERNIGHT...SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS DID IN FACT ADVECT UP THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY
LAST NIGHT AND INTO KUKI FROM 11-16Z ON LIGHT S WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
ALREADY EXTEND INLAND TO KSTS TO THE S...SO NO REASON TO NOT EXPECT
A REPEAT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM
DUNK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E PACIFIC HAS WEAKENED IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER IN
THE S OUTER WATERS. THE GULF OF AK LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBUILD OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TO INCREASE DURING MID-WEEK.

NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE AREA WATERS ON MON WITH INITIAL PERIODS OF
16 TO 18 SECONDS. S SWELL HAS ENTERED THE WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TONIGHT AND MON...POSSIBLY REACHING 3 TO 4 FT AT 22 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MWS FOR LARGER THAN NORMAL BREAKERS AT S
FACING BEACHES. HAVE ALLOWED THE N NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THRU MON MORNING. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 032241
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
341 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY
AND THEN DIVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS
STUBBORNLY INUNDATED ALONG THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. SCATTERING CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT BRIEF
AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ON MONDAY AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE BUT STANDARD CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. FLOW WILL ALSO BE OUT OF THE WEST WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY DARN DRY WITH
ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MODELS STILL CONTAIN SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SO ASSIGNED CLIMO
POPS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. KML/JT

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER BANK OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE CLOUD BANK EXTENDS A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THE
REDWOOD COAST THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHO A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED ALL THE WAY S TO ABOUT 15 NM OFFSHORE EKA. AN
ELONGATED EDDY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED BETWEEN KCEC AND PATRICK`S
POINT...AND THIS MAY PREVENT MUCH ADDITIONAL CLEARING AT KACV AND
KCEC. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. AS STRATUS
LOWERS OVERNIGHT...SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS DID IN FACT ADVECT UP THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY
LAST NIGHT AND INTO KUKI FROM 11-16Z ON LIGHT S WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
ALREADY EXTEND INLAND TO KSTS TO THE S...SO NO REASON TO NOT EXPECT
A REPEAT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM
DUNK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E PACIFIC HAS WEAKENED IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER IN
THE S OUTER WATERS. THE GULF OF AK LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBUILD OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TO INCREASE DURING MID-WEEK.

NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE AREA WATERS ON MON WITH INITIAL PERIODS OF
16 TO 18 SECONDS. S SWELL HAS ENTERED THE WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TONIGHT AND MON...POSSIBLY REACHING 3 TO 4 FT AT 22 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MWS FOR LARGER THAN NORMAL BREAKERS AT S
FACING BEACHES. HAVE ALLOWED THE N NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THRU MON MORNING. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 032241
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
341 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY
AND THEN DIVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS
STUBBORNLY INUNDATED ALONG THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. SCATTERING CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT BRIEF
AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ON MONDAY AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE BUT STANDARD CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. FLOW WILL ALSO BE OUT OF THE WEST WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY DARN DRY WITH
ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MODELS STILL CONTAIN SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SO ASSIGNED CLIMO
POPS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. KML/JT

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER BANK OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE CLOUD BANK EXTENDS A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THE
REDWOOD COAST THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHO A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED ALL THE WAY S TO ABOUT 15 NM OFFSHORE EKA. AN
ELONGATED EDDY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED BETWEEN KCEC AND PATRICK`S
POINT...AND THIS MAY PREVENT MUCH ADDITIONAL CLEARING AT KACV AND
KCEC. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. AS STRATUS
LOWERS OVERNIGHT...SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS DID IN FACT ADVECT UP THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY
LAST NIGHT AND INTO KUKI FROM 11-16Z ON LIGHT S WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
ALREADY EXTEND INLAND TO KSTS TO THE S...SO NO REASON TO NOT EXPECT
A REPEAT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM
DUNK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E PACIFIC HAS WEAKENED IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER IN
THE S OUTER WATERS. THE GULF OF AK LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBUILD OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TO INCREASE DURING MID-WEEK.

NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE AREA WATERS ON MON WITH INITIAL PERIODS OF
16 TO 18 SECONDS. S SWELL HAS ENTERED THE WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TONIGHT AND MON...POSSIBLY REACHING 3 TO 4 FT AT 22 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MWS FOR LARGER THAN NORMAL BREAKERS AT S
FACING BEACHES. HAVE ALLOWED THE N NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THRU MON MORNING. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 032241
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
341 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY
AND THEN DIVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS
STUBBORNLY INUNDATED ALONG THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. SCATTERING CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT BRIEF
AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ON MONDAY AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE BUT STANDARD CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. FLOW WILL ALSO BE OUT OF THE WEST WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY DARN DRY WITH
ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MODELS STILL CONTAIN SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SO ASSIGNED CLIMO
POPS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. KML/JT

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER BANK OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE CLOUD BANK EXTENDS A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THE
REDWOOD COAST THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHO A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED ALL THE WAY S TO ABOUT 15 NM OFFSHORE EKA. AN
ELONGATED EDDY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED BETWEEN KCEC AND PATRICK`S
POINT...AND THIS MAY PREVENT MUCH ADDITIONAL CLEARING AT KACV AND
KCEC. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. AS STRATUS
LOWERS OVERNIGHT...SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS DID IN FACT ADVECT UP THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY
LAST NIGHT AND INTO KUKI FROM 11-16Z ON LIGHT S WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
ALREADY EXTEND INLAND TO KSTS TO THE S...SO NO REASON TO NOT EXPECT
A REPEAT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM
DUNK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E PACIFIC HAS WEAKENED IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER IN
THE S OUTER WATERS. THE GULF OF AK LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBUILD OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TO INCREASE DURING MID-WEEK.

NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE AREA WATERS ON MON WITH INITIAL PERIODS OF
16 TO 18 SECONDS. S SWELL HAS ENTERED THE WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TONIGHT AND MON...POSSIBLY REACHING 3 TO 4 FT AT 22 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MWS FOR LARGER THAN NORMAL BREAKERS AT S
FACING BEACHES. HAVE ALLOWED THE N NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THRU MON MORNING. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




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