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000
FXUS66 KEKA 011657
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
957 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE TRINITY ALPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
INTERIOR CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE COAST
SHOULD ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALONG THE RIDGES. DRY AIR ALOFT LED TO POOR RH
RECOVERIES LAST NIGHT...AND WITH A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE...THINK THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS
BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. STP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 436 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT FORECAST. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA REMAINS SQUASHED BETWEEN
A RIDGE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH OFF OF THE
WEST COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF TODAY AND INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE TRINITY ALPS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, REMOVED THE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AS MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE
MODELS CAN EASILY CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN. OTHERWISE, THE INTERIOR
CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COAST CAN EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 1/2SM IN FOG AT KCEC. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BY LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY BE ENUF OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO BRING MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS TO KCEC BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KUKI. /SEC

MARINE...PERSISTENT N WINDS CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL TOUCH THE LOW END OF HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE AREAS COVERAGE WILL NOT
WARRANT ISSUANCE. THIS MAY CHANGE BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS SHORT
PERIOD SEAS GRADUALLY RAMP UP. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TUESDAY NIGHT PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 011657
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
957 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE TRINITY ALPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
INTERIOR CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE COAST
SHOULD ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALONG THE RIDGES. DRY AIR ALOFT LED TO POOR RH
RECOVERIES LAST NIGHT...AND WITH A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE...THINK THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS
BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. STP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 436 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT FORECAST. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA REMAINS SQUASHED BETWEEN
A RIDGE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH OFF OF THE
WEST COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF TODAY AND INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE TRINITY ALPS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, REMOVED THE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AS MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE
MODELS CAN EASILY CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN. OTHERWISE, THE INTERIOR
CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COAST CAN EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 1/2SM IN FOG AT KCEC. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BY LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY BE ENUF OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO BRING MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS TO KCEC BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KUKI. /SEC

MARINE...PERSISTENT N WINDS CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL TOUCH THE LOW END OF HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE AREAS COVERAGE WILL NOT
WARRANT ISSUANCE. THIS MAY CHANGE BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS SHORT
PERIOD SEAS GRADUALLY RAMP UP. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TUESDAY NIGHT PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA








000
FXUS66 KEKA 011136
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
436 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE TRINITY ALPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
INTERIOR CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE COAST
SHOULD ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT FORECAST. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA REMAINS SQUASHED BETWEEN
A RIDGE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH OFF OF THE
WEST COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF TODAY AND INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE TRINITY ALPS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, REMOVED THE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AS MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE
MODELS CAN EASILY CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN. OTHERWISE, THE INTERIOR
CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COAST CAN EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 1/2SM IN FOG AT KCEC. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BY LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY BE ENUF OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO BRING MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS TO KCEC BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KUKI. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT N WINDS CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL TOUCH THE LOW END OF HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE AREAS COVERAGE WILL NOT
WARRANT ISSUANCE. THIS MAY CHANGE BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS SHORT
PERIOD SEAS GRADUALLY RAMP UP. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 011136
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
436 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE TRINITY ALPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE
INTERIOR CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE COAST
SHOULD ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT FORECAST. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA REMAINS SQUASHED BETWEEN
A RIDGE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH OFF OF THE
WEST COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF TODAY AND INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE TRINITY ALPS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, REMOVED THE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AS MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE
MODELS CAN EASILY CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN. OTHERWISE, THE INTERIOR
CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COAST CAN EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 1/2SM IN FOG AT KCEC. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BY LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY BE ENUF OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO BRING MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS TO KCEC BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KUKI. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT N WINDS CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL TOUCH THE LOW END OF HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE AREAS COVERAGE WILL NOT
WARRANT ISSUANCE. THIS MAY CHANGE BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS SHORT
PERIOD SEAS GRADUALLY RAMP UP. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA






000
FXUS66 KEKA 312230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TRINITY
HORN ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT)...AS OF 22Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS ALONG MUCH OF THE REDWOOD AND MENDOCINO
COASTS. CUMULUS WAS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TRINITY COUNTY. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE
AREA EACH DAY WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED AROUND
THE HIGH AND INTO THE AREA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE TRINITY HORN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY IS CONFIRMED BY MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9 C/KM...LI VALUES DOWN TO -5C....AND
SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG. A MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER IS
ONCE AGAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AND BUILD-UPS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
BEEN STRUGGLING TO BREAK THROUGH. THINK THAT AN APPROACHING JET
STREAK AND FAVORABLE PVA LOCATION SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
FORMS WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INSTABILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COASTAL CLOUDS/FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS/MORNINGS. ADDED
PATCHY SMOKE TO THE FORECAST IN NORTHERN MENDOCINO...SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT...AND SOUTHERN TRINITY COUNTIES DUE TO THE LODGE FIRE IN
NORTHWEST MENDOCINO COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE 90S TO LOWER 100S F...WITH 60S AND 70S
F ALONG THE COAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM...(MON THRU THU) MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLACE
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PREDICT THAT A WEAK CUT
OFF LOW MAY FORM OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MID NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING SOME MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WOULD LET
MOISTURE FLOW UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY POSSIBLY ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. THUS CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM TIMING OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS IS LOW. CONSIDERING
ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE THE DAY STORMS FORM...OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH NO
STRONG OFFSHORE OR ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE COASTAL AREAS WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBYS WERE SLOW TO IMPROVE AT THE COSTAL TAF
SITES TODAY WITH KCEC AND KACV REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS OF 22Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
STRATUS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM VC KCEC DOWN TO KACV...AND
ALONG MUCH OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WITH CUMULUS BUILDING ACROSS
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. THE COASTAL SITES MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT COASTAL CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY. STP

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL LEAVE
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FEET THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD
SEAS MAY BUILD TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF THE
INNER WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT GENERALLY
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...ESSENTIALLY THE LENGTH OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TUESDAY NIGHT PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA







000
FXUS66 KEKA 312230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TRINITY
HORN ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT)...AS OF 22Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS ALONG MUCH OF THE REDWOOD AND MENDOCINO
COASTS. CUMULUS WAS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TRINITY COUNTY. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE
AREA EACH DAY WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED AROUND
THE HIGH AND INTO THE AREA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE TRINITY HORN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY IS CONFIRMED BY MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9 C/KM...LI VALUES DOWN TO -5C....AND
SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG. A MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER IS
ONCE AGAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AND BUILD-UPS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
BEEN STRUGGLING TO BREAK THROUGH. THINK THAT AN APPROACHING JET
STREAK AND FAVORABLE PVA LOCATION SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
FORMS WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INSTABILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COASTAL CLOUDS/FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS/MORNINGS. ADDED
PATCHY SMOKE TO THE FORECAST IN NORTHERN MENDOCINO...SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT...AND SOUTHERN TRINITY COUNTIES DUE TO THE LODGE FIRE IN
NORTHWEST MENDOCINO COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE 90S TO LOWER 100S F...WITH 60S AND 70S
F ALONG THE COAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM...(MON THRU THU) MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLACE
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PREDICT THAT A WEAK CUT
OFF LOW MAY FORM OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MID NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING SOME MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WOULD LET
MOISTURE FLOW UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY POSSIBLY ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. THUS CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM TIMING OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS IS LOW. CONSIDERING
ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE THE DAY STORMS FORM...OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH NO
STRONG OFFSHORE OR ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE COASTAL AREAS WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBYS WERE SLOW TO IMPROVE AT THE COSTAL TAF
SITES TODAY WITH KCEC AND KACV REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS OF 22Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
STRATUS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM VC KCEC DOWN TO KACV...AND
ALONG MUCH OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WITH CUMULUS BUILDING ACROSS
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. THE COASTAL SITES MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT COASTAL CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY. STP

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL LEAVE
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FEET THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD
SEAS MAY BUILD TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF THE
INNER WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT GENERALLY
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...ESSENTIALLY THE LENGTH OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TUESDAY NIGHT PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 311531
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
831 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL COUPLE WITH ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE TRINITY HORN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO
CURRENT TRENDS AND TO ADD PATCHY SMOKE TO NORTHERN MENDOCINO...SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT...AND SOUTHERN TRINITY COUNTIES. ONGOING FIRES IN
NORTHWEST MENDOCINO COUNTY HAVE RESULTED IN SMOKE...AS SEEN ON THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS TODAY UP
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TRINITY ALPS. STP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 431 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NEAR 40N/132W IS CURRENTLY
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES NE...EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER THE N PAC. A VORTICITY MAX IS MOVING
TOWARD N CA EARLY THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW...THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...
BUT NO SIGN OF ANY LOWER CLOUDINESS OR PRECIP. THIS VORTICITY MAX
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE...WITH SOME WEAK NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. YESTERDAY`S LAYER OF LOWER LAPSE RATES NEAR 500
MB REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE A WEAK CAP TO
CONVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD 00Z FROM THE N. ALL-IN-ALL...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TRINITY HORN BEING THE MOST FAVORED
AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTM INITIATION MAY BE A BIT LATER
THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING BENEATH THE N PAC LOW AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
TEMPERATURE THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENUF INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE N INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

AS EXPECTED...THE BANK OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS HAS SHRUNK WITH A
MORE NARROW STRIP COVERING THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BY AFTERNOON. COASTAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. /SEC

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE AT KCEC LATE THIS MORNING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DECREASING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THIS MORNING AT KACV. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A
PERSISTENT THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO
CONTINUE EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

FIRE WEATHER...WILL INCLUDE ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN N PORTION OF ZONE 283...BUT NO WARNINGS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 311131
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
431 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL COUPLE WITH ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE TRINITY HORN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NEAR 40N/132W IS CURRENTLY
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES NE...EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER THE N PAC. A VORTICITY MAX IS MOVING
TOWARD N CA EARLY THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW...THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...
BUT NO SIGN OF ANY LOWER CLOUDINESS OR PRECIP. THIS VORTICITY MAX
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE...WITH SOME WEAK NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. YESTERDAY`S LAYER OF LOWER LAPSE RATES NEAR 500
MB REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE A WEAK CAP TO
CONVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD 00Z FROM THE N. ALL-IN-ALL...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TRINITY HORN BEING THE MOST FAVORED
AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTM INITIATION MAY BE A BIT LATER
THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING BENEATH THE N PAC LOW AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
TEMPERATURE THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENUF INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE N INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

AS EXPECTED...THE BANK OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS HAS SHRUNK WITH A
MORE NARROW STRIP COVERING THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BY AFTERNOON. COASTAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE AT KCEC LATE THIS MORNING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DECREASING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THIS MORNING AT KACV. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A
PERSISTENT THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO
CONTINUE EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL INCLUDE ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN N PORTION OF ZONE 283...BUT NO WARNINGS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MON PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 311131
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
431 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL COUPLE WITH ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE TRINITY HORN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NEAR 40N/132W IS CURRENTLY
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES NE...EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER THE N PAC. A VORTICITY MAX IS MOVING
TOWARD N CA EARLY THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW...THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...
BUT NO SIGN OF ANY LOWER CLOUDINESS OR PRECIP. THIS VORTICITY MAX
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE...WITH SOME WEAK NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. YESTERDAY`S LAYER OF LOWER LAPSE RATES NEAR 500
MB REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE A WEAK CAP TO
CONVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD 00Z FROM THE N. ALL-IN-ALL...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TRINITY HORN BEING THE MOST FAVORED
AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTM INITIATION MAY BE A BIT LATER
THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING BENEATH THE N PAC LOW AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
TEMPERATURE THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENUF INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE N INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

AS EXPECTED...THE BANK OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS HAS SHRUNK WITH A
MORE NARROW STRIP COVERING THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BY AFTERNOON. COASTAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE AT KCEC LATE THIS MORNING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DECREASING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THIS MORNING AT KACV. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A
PERSISTENT THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO
CONTINUE EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL INCLUDE ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN N PORTION OF ZONE 283...BUT NO WARNINGS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MON PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 310321
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
821 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPERING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING OVER TRINITY COUNTY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL CROSS NW CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY LIGHTNING OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE USFS REDDING FIRE WEATHER
OFFICE, HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT
TO MENDOCINO, FAR SOUTHERN TRINITY, AND EXTREME SE HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, IS
APPROACHING FROM THE SW THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT AS VIGOROUS AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT, THIS SHORTWAVE IS SHOWING ACCAS IN EVENING
SATELLITE IMAGERY GIVING ME JUST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
OF SOMETHING OCCURRING, BUT WOULD BE REMISS TO NOT HAVE DRY
LIGHTNING IN THE FORECAST. HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES OR WARNING DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. THIS THREAT WILL END
AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BFG

IF YOU WITNESS ANY LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT PLEASE LET US KNOW THROUGH
OUR SOCIAL MEDIA CONTACTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS DISCUSSION. IF YOU
SEE A WILDFIRE, PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE AGENCY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 340 PM PDT...

SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
PRODUCED SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY HAS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST SPARKING OFF NEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRINITY ALPS NORTH INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY.
SUBSIDENCE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE OF ENERGY HAS SUPPRESSED THE
ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT...BUT CUMULUS WAS RE-BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS OF 21Z WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE TRINITY
ALPS. INSTABILITY REMAINS GOOD WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO
9 C/KM...LI VALUES DOWN TO -7C...AND SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000
J/KG. A STABLE MID-LAYER IS PRESENT...AND BUILD-UPS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP...BUT WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE WAS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS OF 21Z WITH STRATUS PEELING SOUTH OFF OF CAPE BLANCO
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE REDWOOD
AND MENDOCINO COASTS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW DRIER BL RH
NORTH OF CRESCENT CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT AREAS NORTH OF PT ST
GEORGE PARTLY CLOUDY. GOING INTO THURSDAY...MORE CLEARING ALONG THE
COAST IS POSSIBLE WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND BETTER MIXING.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS
KEEP NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ROTATING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...A STABLE
MID- LAYER IS PRESENT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FOUND A WAY TO
BREAK THROUGH IT IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COASTAL CLOUDS/FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS/MORNINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE
90S TO NEAR 100 F...WITH 60S AND 70S F ALONG THE COAST. STP

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA PINWHEELS VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIGNALING FOR A CUT-OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW IT SHIFTING TO THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IMPACTING THE EUREKA COUNTY WARNING AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROLONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN TRINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, HOWEVER, I ONLY INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH THE
TRACKING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. OTHERWISE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE TOOLS
SHOW A HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
STATIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. /KML

AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES HAS BEEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR/DRY
SLOT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BEEN ENTERING THE NORCAL COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER SEVERAL SMALL SCALE VORTICES WERE PRESENT NEARSHORE FROM PT
ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CLEARING SKIES
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
TO LIFR AGAIN AND PUSH INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS THIS
EVENING AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CBS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING OVER THE TRINITY COUNTY MTNS. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL APPROACH
ON THU AND EXPECT MORE INTERIOR CONVECTION.

MARINE...THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, AREAS NEARSHORE AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO
AND POINT ARENA MAY OBSERVE HIGHER WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THIS WEEKEND BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING A GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME SINCE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL. AS FOR THE
INNER WATERS, CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN STEEP WITH
SOME AREAS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA (ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE
MENDOCINO AND POINT ARENA). THE INNER WATERS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ADVISORIES IF HIGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGES IN THE LARGER SCALE SURFACE
PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT MAY ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO EASE SLIGHTLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER
WATERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER, HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE END TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND HOW
THEY WILL EFFECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE. /KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 310321
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
821 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPERING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING OVER TRINITY COUNTY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL CROSS NW CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY LIGHTNING OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE USFS REDDING FIRE WEATHER
OFFICE, HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT
TO MENDOCINO, FAR SOUTHERN TRINITY, AND EXTREME SE HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, IS
APPROACHING FROM THE SW THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT AS VIGOROUS AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT, THIS SHORTWAVE IS SHOWING ACCAS IN EVENING
SATELLITE IMAGERY GIVING ME JUST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
OF SOMETHING OCCURRING, BUT WOULD BE REMISS TO NOT HAVE DRY
LIGHTNING IN THE FORECAST. HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES OR WARNING DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. THIS THREAT WILL END
AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BFG

IF YOU WITNESS ANY LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT PLEASE LET US KNOW THROUGH
OUR SOCIAL MEDIA CONTACTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS DISCUSSION. IF YOU
SEE A WILDFIRE, PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE AGENCY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 340 PM PDT...

SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
PRODUCED SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY HAS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST SPARKING OFF NEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRINITY ALPS NORTH INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY.
SUBSIDENCE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE OF ENERGY HAS SUPPRESSED THE
ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT...BUT CUMULUS WAS RE-BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS OF 21Z WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE TRINITY
ALPS. INSTABILITY REMAINS GOOD WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO
9 C/KM...LI VALUES DOWN TO -7C...AND SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000
J/KG. A STABLE MID-LAYER IS PRESENT...AND BUILD-UPS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP...BUT WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE WAS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS OF 21Z WITH STRATUS PEELING SOUTH OFF OF CAPE BLANCO
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE REDWOOD
AND MENDOCINO COASTS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW DRIER BL RH
NORTH OF CRESCENT CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT AREAS NORTH OF PT ST
GEORGE PARTLY CLOUDY. GOING INTO THURSDAY...MORE CLEARING ALONG THE
COAST IS POSSIBLE WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND BETTER MIXING.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS
KEEP NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ROTATING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...A STABLE
MID- LAYER IS PRESENT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FOUND A WAY TO
BREAK THROUGH IT IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COASTAL CLOUDS/FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS/MORNINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE
90S TO NEAR 100 F...WITH 60S AND 70S F ALONG THE COAST. STP

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA PINWHEELS VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIGNALING FOR A CUT-OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW IT SHIFTING TO THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IMPACTING THE EUREKA COUNTY WARNING AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROLONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN TRINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, HOWEVER, I ONLY INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH THE
TRACKING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. OTHERWISE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE TOOLS
SHOW A HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
STATIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. /KML

AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES HAS BEEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR/DRY
SLOT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BEEN ENTERING THE NORCAL COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER SEVERAL SMALL SCALE VORTICES WERE PRESENT NEARSHORE FROM PT
ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CLEARING SKIES
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
TO LIFR AGAIN AND PUSH INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS THIS
EVENING AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CBS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING OVER THE TRINITY COUNTY MTNS. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL APPROACH
ON THU AND EXPECT MORE INTERIOR CONVECTION.

MARINE...THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, AREAS NEARSHORE AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO
AND POINT ARENA MAY OBSERVE HIGHER WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THIS WEEKEND BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING A GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME SINCE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL. AS FOR THE
INNER WATERS, CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN STEEP WITH
SOME AREAS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA (ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE
MENDOCINO AND POINT ARENA). THE INNER WATERS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ADVISORIES IF HIGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGES IN THE LARGER SCALE SURFACE
PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT MAY ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO EASE SLIGHTLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER
WATERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER, HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE END TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND HOW
THEY WILL EFFECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE. /KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 302240
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
340 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
PRODUCED SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY HAS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST SPARKING OFF NEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRINITY ALPS NORTH INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY.
SUBSIDENCE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE OF ENERGY HAS SUPPRESSED THE
ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT...BUT CUMULUS WAS RE-BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS OF 21Z WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE TRINITY
ALPS. INSTABILITY REMAINS GOOD WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO
9 C/KM...LI VALUES DOWN TO -7C...AND SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000
J/KG. A STABLE MID-LAYER IS PRESENT...AND BUILD-UPS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP...BUT WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE WAS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS OF 21Z WITH STRATUS PEELING SOUTH OFF OF CAPE BLANCO
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE REDWOOD
AND MENDOCINO COASTS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW DRIER BL RH
NORTH OF CRESCENT CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT AREAS NORTH OF PT ST
GEORGE PARTLY CLOUDY. GOING INTO THURSDAY...MORE CLEARING ALONG THE
COAST IS POSSIBLE WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND BETTER MIXING.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS
KEEP NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ROTATING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...A STABLE
MID- LAYER IS PRESENT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FOUND A WAY TO
BREAK THROUGH IT IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COASTAL CLOUDS/FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS/MORNINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE
90S TO NEAR 100 F...WITH 60S AND 70S F ALONG THE COAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA PINWHEELS VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIGNALING FOR A CUT-OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW IT SHIFTING TO THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IMPACTING THE EUREKA COUNTY WARNING AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROLONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN TRINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, HOWEVER, I ONLY INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH THE
TRACKING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. OTHERWISE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE TOOLS
SHOW A HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
STATIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. /KML

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES HAS BEEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR/DRY
SLOT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BEEN ENTERING THE NORCAL COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER SEVERAL SMALL SCALE VORTICES WERE PRESENT NEARSHORE FROM PT
ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CLEARING SKIES
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
TO LIFR AGAIN AND PUSH INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS THIS
EVENING AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CBS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING OVER THE TRINITY COUNTY MTNS. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL APPROACH
ON THU AND EXPECT MORE INTERIOR CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, AREAS NEARSHORE AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO
AND POINT ARENA MAY OBSERVE HIGHER WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THIS WEEKEND BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING A GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME SINCE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL. AS FOR THE
INNER WATERS, CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN STEEP WITH
SOME AREAS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA (ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE
MENDOCINO AND POINT ARENA). THE INNER WATERS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ADVISORIES IF HIGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGES IN THE LARGER SCALE SURFACE
PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT MAY ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO EASE SLIGHTLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER
WATERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER, HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE END TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND HOW
THEY WILL EFFECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE. /KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA







000
FXUS66 KEKA 302240
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
340 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
PRODUCED SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY HAS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST SPARKING OFF NEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRINITY ALPS NORTH INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY.
SUBSIDENCE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE OF ENERGY HAS SUPPRESSED THE
ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT...BUT CUMULUS WAS RE-BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS OF 21Z WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE TRINITY
ALPS. INSTABILITY REMAINS GOOD WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO
9 C/KM...LI VALUES DOWN TO -7C...AND SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000
J/KG. A STABLE MID-LAYER IS PRESENT...AND BUILD-UPS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP...BUT WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE WAS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS OF 21Z WITH STRATUS PEELING SOUTH OFF OF CAPE BLANCO
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE REDWOOD
AND MENDOCINO COASTS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW DRIER BL RH
NORTH OF CRESCENT CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT AREAS NORTH OF PT ST
GEORGE PARTLY CLOUDY. GOING INTO THURSDAY...MORE CLEARING ALONG THE
COAST IS POSSIBLE WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND BETTER MIXING.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS
KEEP NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ROTATING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...A STABLE
MID- LAYER IS PRESENT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FOUND A WAY TO
BREAK THROUGH IT IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COASTAL CLOUDS/FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS/MORNINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE
90S TO NEAR 100 F...WITH 60S AND 70S F ALONG THE COAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA PINWHEELS VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIGNALING FOR A CUT-OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW IT SHIFTING TO THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IMPACTING THE EUREKA COUNTY WARNING AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROLONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN TRINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, HOWEVER, I ONLY INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH THE
TRACKING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. OTHERWISE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE TOOLS
SHOW A HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
STATIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. /KML

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES HAS BEEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR/DRY
SLOT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BEEN ENTERING THE NORCAL COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER SEVERAL SMALL SCALE VORTICES WERE PRESENT NEARSHORE FROM PT
ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CLEARING SKIES
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
TO LIFR AGAIN AND PUSH INTO THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS THIS
EVENING AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CBS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING OVER THE TRINITY COUNTY MTNS. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL APPROACH
ON THU AND EXPECT MORE INTERIOR CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, AREAS NEARSHORE AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO
AND POINT ARENA MAY OBSERVE HIGHER WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THIS WEEKEND BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING A GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME SINCE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL. AS FOR THE
INNER WATERS, CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN STEEP WITH
SOME AREAS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA (ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE
MENDOCINO AND POINT ARENA). THE INNER WATERS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ADVISORIES IF HIGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGES IN THE LARGER SCALE SURFACE
PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT MAY ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO EASE SLIGHTLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER
WATERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER, HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE END TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND HOW
THEY WILL EFFECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE. /KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA








000
FXUS66 KEKA 301111
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
411 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED...MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO...SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT...AND SOUTHERN TRINITY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE REDWOOD COAST WILL SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF W MENDOCINO COUNTY. THESE ARE THE
RESULT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT N AND NE
AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE INCLUDED 15% POPS IN THE
AFFECTED AREA...BUT EXPECT MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
DRY AIR THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN DUE TO MONSOONAL FLOW TODAY.
EXPECT A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE TRINITY HORN AND UP INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR COVERAGE TO TUESDAY`S PATTERN.
GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...ALTHO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LOWER 500 MB LAPSE RATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP BREAK THE CAP...BUT SCATTERED COVERAGE
IS ONLY ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU LINE AND POINTS N.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON THU. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN POPS...AGAIN FOCUSED
TOWARD THE TRINITY HORN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING BENEATH THE N PAC LOW AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
TEMPERATURE THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENUF INSTABILITY FOR AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE N INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

THE BANK OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO SHRINK TONIGHT AND
THU...BUT A SMALLER AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE REDWOOD
COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT KCEC
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KACV DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THIS
MORNING AT KACV. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTERACTING
WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA MAINTAINING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE ELEVATED WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE THIS WEEK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU BORDER. AT THIS TIME...
THE ZONE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER... WILL HIGHLIGHT TSTMS IN AN FWF HEADLINE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM SUN PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 301111
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
411 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED...MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO...SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT...AND SOUTHERN TRINITY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE REDWOOD COAST WILL SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF W MENDOCINO COUNTY. THESE ARE THE
RESULT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT N AND NE
AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE INCLUDED 15% POPS IN THE
AFFECTED AREA...BUT EXPECT MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
DRY AIR THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN DUE TO MONSOONAL FLOW TODAY.
EXPECT A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE TRINITY HORN AND UP INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR COVERAGE TO TUESDAY`S PATTERN.
GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...ALTHO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LOWER 500 MB LAPSE RATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP BREAK THE CAP...BUT SCATTERED COVERAGE
IS ONLY ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU LINE AND POINTS N.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON THU. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN POPS...AGAIN FOCUSED
TOWARD THE TRINITY HORN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING BENEATH THE N PAC LOW AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
TEMPERATURE THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENUF INSTABILITY FOR AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE N INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

THE BANK OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO SHRINK TONIGHT AND
THU...BUT A SMALLER AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE REDWOOD
COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT KCEC
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KACV DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THIS
MORNING AT KACV. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTERACTING
WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA MAINTAINING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE ELEVATED WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE THIS WEEK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU BORDER. AT THIS TIME...
THE ZONE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER... WILL HIGHLIGHT TSTMS IN AN FWF HEADLINE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM SUN PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA








000
FXUS66 KEKA 300429
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
929 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COASTAL REGIONS WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FOG AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF
NW CALIFORNIA WILL SIMPLY DEAL WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
HOT CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO SHOW THE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO DECREASE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST.
OTHERWISE LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN TACT. AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN ON TRACK. BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 326 PM PDT...

SYNOPSIS...COASTAL REGIONS WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FOG AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS DISSIPATE OVER NIGHT BY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
WILL SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO NW CAL CAUSING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER TO ALL AREAS TONIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF TRINITY
COUNTY TIL NEAR MIDNIGHT. HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE COAST REMAIN MODERATE.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING; MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED
INTO CALIFORNIA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS BEING JOINED TODAY BY A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE SSW TO THE NNE, THE FIRST IS NOW NE OF
35N135W AND SHOULD ARRIVE OVER NW CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.

THE SECOND OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CAL
AND INTO OREGON AT ABOUT THE TIME WHEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REACHES THE AREA...DURING
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS TRINITY, NE MENDOCINO, AND EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE PLENTY TO BLAST THROUGH THIS CAP. MKN

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WEAKEST DAY FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA, BUT FRIDAY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF NW CAL. I WILL SAY THE
06Z GFS IS TRYING TO POP CONVECTION AGAIN ON THU, BUT NOT HOPING
ON BOARD QUITE YET. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY. BFG ON
THU AND FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEBULOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH POORLY DEFINED AND HARD TO TIME
SHORT-WAVE FEATURES. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING STORMS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES BOTH DAYS.
LAPSE RATE LOOK DECENT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A MID LEVEL
STABLE LAYER TO OVERCOME. WITHOUT THE MOISTURE AND EXTRA LIFT FROM
A SHORT-WAVE...IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOPMENT
INTO DEEP STORMS. THUS FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES...FORCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND TERRAIN.

LONG-RANGE (SAT THROUGH TUE)...GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHING
THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES FOR POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COOLING ALOFT INDICATED IN
THE MODEL DATA. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT AND SUN IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. ON MON
AND TUE...THE GFS AND ECWMF TRY TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THIS TRANSITION. THE GFS DOES SHOW
INSTABILITY...MAINLY IN EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY ON MON AND TUE...SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE FORECAST ALONG THE
COAST HAS BEEN BASED LARGELY ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE.

MARINE....HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE NORCAL INTERIOR WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES THROUGH THE WEEK
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE INNER WATERS AS A SHORT PERIOD SWELL.
ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR STEEP SEAS
OF 7-9 FT AT 8 SECONDS AND WINDS OF 20-25 KT. NORTHERLIES MAY REACH
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW END GALES HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MWW.

AVIATION...LIFR CIGS HUGGING THE COAST AT 3PM WHILE TOWERING CU
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FORK RIDGE LINE AND FURTHER EAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND UP EEL RIVER VALLEY PUSHING PAST KFOT
AFTER 2200 PDT WITH WITH VSBYS ALSO BECOMING TO IFR. A SHORT WAVE OFF
THE COAST WILL BE GRAZING THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE ISOLD CBS AND TSTMS TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTY. DEAN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA






000
FXUS66 KEKA 300429
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
929 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COASTAL REGIONS WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FOG AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF
NW CALIFORNIA WILL SIMPLY DEAL WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
HOT CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO SHOW THE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO DECREASE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST.
OTHERWISE LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN TACT. AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN ON TRACK. BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 326 PM PDT...

SYNOPSIS...COASTAL REGIONS WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FOG AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS DISSIPATE OVER NIGHT BY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
WILL SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO NW CAL CAUSING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER TO ALL AREAS TONIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF TRINITY
COUNTY TIL NEAR MIDNIGHT. HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE COAST REMAIN MODERATE.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING; MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED
INTO CALIFORNIA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS BEING JOINED TODAY BY A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE SSW TO THE NNE, THE FIRST IS NOW NE OF
35N135W AND SHOULD ARRIVE OVER NW CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.

THE SECOND OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CAL
AND INTO OREGON AT ABOUT THE TIME WHEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REACHES THE AREA...DURING
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS TRINITY, NE MENDOCINO, AND EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE PLENTY TO BLAST THROUGH THIS CAP. MKN

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WEAKEST DAY FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA, BUT FRIDAY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF NW CAL. I WILL SAY THE
06Z GFS IS TRYING TO POP CONVECTION AGAIN ON THU, BUT NOT HOPING
ON BOARD QUITE YET. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY. BFG ON
THU AND FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEBULOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH POORLY DEFINED AND HARD TO TIME
SHORT-WAVE FEATURES. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING STORMS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES BOTH DAYS.
LAPSE RATE LOOK DECENT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A MID LEVEL
STABLE LAYER TO OVERCOME. WITHOUT THE MOISTURE AND EXTRA LIFT FROM
A SHORT-WAVE...IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOPMENT
INTO DEEP STORMS. THUS FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES...FORCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND TERRAIN.

LONG-RANGE (SAT THROUGH TUE)...GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHING
THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES FOR POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COOLING ALOFT INDICATED IN
THE MODEL DATA. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT AND SUN IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. ON MON
AND TUE...THE GFS AND ECWMF TRY TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THIS TRANSITION. THE GFS DOES SHOW
INSTABILITY...MAINLY IN EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY ON MON AND TUE...SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE FORECAST ALONG THE
COAST HAS BEEN BASED LARGELY ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE.

MARINE....HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE NORCAL INTERIOR WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES THROUGH THE WEEK
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE INNER WATERS AS A SHORT PERIOD SWELL.
ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR STEEP SEAS
OF 7-9 FT AT 8 SECONDS AND WINDS OF 20-25 KT. NORTHERLIES MAY REACH
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW END GALES HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MWW.

AVIATION...LIFR CIGS HUGGING THE COAST AT 3PM WHILE TOWERING CU
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FORK RIDGE LINE AND FURTHER EAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND UP EEL RIVER VALLEY PUSHING PAST KFOT
AFTER 2200 PDT WITH WITH VSBYS ALSO BECOMING TO IFR. A SHORT WAVE OFF
THE COAST WILL BE GRAZING THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE ISOLD CBS AND TSTMS TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTY. DEAN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





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