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000
FXUS66 KEKA 222212
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
312 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT OF SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST
COAST AND MOVING TO THE EAST. MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THERE WILL BE A PATTERN CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
(WHICH WILL BRING THE MAIN RAINFALL TO OUR AREA) WILL APPROACH THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES
OVER OUR AREA RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PWATS (AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES) WILL HOVER OVER OUR
AREA AS THE FRONT NEARLY STALLS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH REMNANT SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE RAINFALL RANGES TO GENERALLY BE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS
HUMBOLDT, DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE TRINITY ALPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF DEL
NORTE COUNTY. MENDOCINO COUNTY CAN EXPECT 0.5-1 INCH.

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU MON)...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH A POST FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST INCREASES AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CUTS THE TROUGH INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE ECMWF SLIDES THE TROUGH
EASTWARD...BUT KEEPS CALIFORNIA UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS COULD GIVE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WITH THE ECMWF...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SOME PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE. RMOP TOOL SHOWS HIGH PREDICTABILITY
IN LOWER HEIGHTS SHIFTING EAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. STP

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH STRATUS CLINGING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER DEEP.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK TROUGH IS POSSIBLE AT KCEC AND VC
KACV LATER IN THE NIGHT LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR TO IFR
REDUCTIONS. STRATUS APPROACHED KUKI FROM THE WEST LAST NIGHT BUT
DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AIRFIELD. WITH A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT MAKING IT INTO THE
RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY OF MENDOCINO COUNTY TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION. STP

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AT 11 SECONDS
TODAY, WHILE WINDS FROM THE FEW BUOYS ANCHORED IN NW CA WATERS
WERE GENTLE, AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. A WEAK BOUNDARY CLIPPING
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TODAY SHOULD CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE SOME...PERHAPS UP TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. THOUGH SEAS
PROBABLY WON`T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON TUE AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH 20-25 KT AND 5-7 FT SLY SEAS EXPECTED IN PZZ470 AND
475. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR PZZ470 AS A RESULT. THIS FAIRLY POTENT FALL STORM WILL
START TO SPIN UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORM
SYSTEM IS GENERATING A WESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON WED. THE 12Z GFS WIND FIELD AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THIS STORM WAS 10 TO 15 KT STRONGER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. A LATE
MORNING ASCAT PASS CLIPPING THE EASTERN PERIPHERARY OF THE STORM
MATCHES WELL WITH THE GFS, IF NOT A TOUCH STRONGER. THE ENP SEEMS
TO HAVE RESPONDED TO THESE WINDS AND HAS INCREASED THE DEEP WATER
WAVE HEIGHTS BY ABOUT 2 FT OVER YESTERDAY`S RUN. WENT AHEAD AND
BIT OFF ON THE WAVE MODEL SOLUTION WITH THE 14 TO 15 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS AS A RESULT. DID HOWEVER NEED TO BUILD SOUTHERLY WAVES BY
HAND DUE TO NWPS NOT PICKING UP ON THE HEIGHTS AS WELL AS I
THOUGHT IT WOULD. SEAS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A TOUCH ON THU,
THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. THESE LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS
USUALLY TAKE LONGER TO DECAY THAN MODELS INDICATE. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THU
INTO FRI. DIRECT OUTPUT FROM THE MODELS INDICATE NOT MUCH WINDS
WITH THIS TROUGH. LEFT THE FORECAST BEEFED UP THE WINDS OVER THE
MODEL OUTPUT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE WINDS MORE THAN 15 TO 20 KT. TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND IS FOR WINDS TO BECOME N-NWLY. HOW STRONG IS
SKETCHY. BFG/DJB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 222212
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
312 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT OF SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST
COAST AND MOVING TO THE EAST. MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THERE WILL BE A PATTERN CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
(WHICH WILL BRING THE MAIN RAINFALL TO OUR AREA) WILL APPROACH THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES
OVER OUR AREA RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PWATS (AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES) WILL HOVER OVER OUR
AREA AS THE FRONT NEARLY STALLS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH REMNANT SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE RAINFALL RANGES TO GENERALLY BE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS
HUMBOLDT, DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE TRINITY ALPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF DEL
NORTE COUNTY. MENDOCINO COUNTY CAN EXPECT 0.5-1 INCH.

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU MON)...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH A POST FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST INCREASES AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CUTS THE TROUGH INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE ECMWF SLIDES THE TROUGH
EASTWARD...BUT KEEPS CALIFORNIA UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS COULD GIVE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WITH THE ECMWF...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SOME PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE. RMOP TOOL SHOWS HIGH PREDICTABILITY
IN LOWER HEIGHTS SHIFTING EAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. STP

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH STRATUS CLINGING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER DEEP.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK TROUGH IS POSSIBLE AT KCEC AND VC
KACV LATER IN THE NIGHT LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR TO IFR
REDUCTIONS. STRATUS APPROACHED KUKI FROM THE WEST LAST NIGHT BUT
DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AIRFIELD. WITH A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT MAKING IT INTO THE
RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY OF MENDOCINO COUNTY TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION. STP

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AT 11 SECONDS
TODAY, WHILE WINDS FROM THE FEW BUOYS ANCHORED IN NW CA WATERS
WERE GENTLE, AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. A WEAK BOUNDARY CLIPPING
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TODAY SHOULD CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE SOME...PERHAPS UP TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. THOUGH SEAS
PROBABLY WON`T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON TUE AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH 20-25 KT AND 5-7 FT SLY SEAS EXPECTED IN PZZ470 AND
475. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR PZZ470 AS A RESULT. THIS FAIRLY POTENT FALL STORM WILL
START TO SPIN UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORM
SYSTEM IS GENERATING A WESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON WED. THE 12Z GFS WIND FIELD AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THIS STORM WAS 10 TO 15 KT STRONGER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. A LATE
MORNING ASCAT PASS CLIPPING THE EASTERN PERIPHERARY OF THE STORM
MATCHES WELL WITH THE GFS, IF NOT A TOUCH STRONGER. THE ENP SEEMS
TO HAVE RESPONDED TO THESE WINDS AND HAS INCREASED THE DEEP WATER
WAVE HEIGHTS BY ABOUT 2 FT OVER YESTERDAY`S RUN. WENT AHEAD AND
BIT OFF ON THE WAVE MODEL SOLUTION WITH THE 14 TO 15 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS AS A RESULT. DID HOWEVER NEED TO BUILD SOUTHERLY WAVES BY
HAND DUE TO NWPS NOT PICKING UP ON THE HEIGHTS AS WELL AS I
THOUGHT IT WOULD. SEAS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A TOUCH ON THU,
THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. THESE LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS
USUALLY TAKE LONGER TO DECAY THAN MODELS INDICATE. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THU
INTO FRI. DIRECT OUTPUT FROM THE MODELS INDICATE NOT MUCH WINDS
WITH THIS TROUGH. LEFT THE FORECAST BEEFED UP THE WINDS OVER THE
MODEL OUTPUT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE WINDS MORE THAN 15 TO 20 KT. TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND IS FOR WINDS TO BECOME N-NWLY. HOW STRONG IS
SKETCHY. BFG/DJB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 221102 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
402 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS
FINALLY MOVED NORTHEAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH.
CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE NEXT
ADVANCING TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF ALLOWED AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO FORM OVER THE TRINITY HORN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
EXPANDING CLOUD COVER FARTHER INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...SOME DRIZZLE
HAS BEEN PRESENT ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS
LOW A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE SURFACE LOW TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST AS RIDGING
ENHANCES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. STILL...SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG COASTAL HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND THE
TUESDAY WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE
DEL NORTE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND INLAND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL
CIRCULATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
CAUSING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL FOR A FEW HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAINFALL TOTALS TO LIKELY EXCEED PREVIOUS FORECAST
AMOUNTS. THUS QPF FORECASTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE FORECAST
FROM LAST NIGHT. IN FACT...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR RECORD
RAINFALL FOR THE DATE ON WEDNESDAY IN BOTH CRESCENT CITY AND EUREKA
AND NEAR RECORD IN UKIAH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND A
HALF INCH IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY TO OVER 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED INCLUDING
THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT BRIEFLY
STALLS...TOTALS MAY BE GREATER THAN PREDICTED IN TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. RPA

RAINFALL RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 24TH:
CRESCENT CITY - 0.72 INCHES SET IN 1986
EUREKA        - 0.57 INCHES SET IN 1904
UKIAH         - 0.48 INCHES SET IN 1986


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO DIVERGE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CUT OFF
THE TROUGH INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM EASTERN UNITED STATES
RIDGE...THE LOW WILL EITHER CUT OFF NEAR THE WEST COAST OR OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST. A FARTHER WEST LOW...FAVORED BY THE
ECMWF...WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A FARTHER EAST
LOW...FAVORED BY THE GFS...WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A CONS BCALLBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE
RUNNING BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT AT KACV AND KCEC...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 1000 FT OR VSBY WILL DROP TO 2-5SM IN BR
OR -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. MVFR CLOUD LAYERS WILL PROBABLY PUSH
FARTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 4-5 FT AT 11 SECONDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS FROM THE FEW BUOYS ANCHORED IN NW CA WATERS WERE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AROUND 6 KTS OR LESS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TODAY AND S-SE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
SOME...PERHAPS UP TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS PROBABLY WONT CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUE AND WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH 20-25 KT AND 5-7 FT
SLY SEAS EXPECTED IN PZZ470. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS IS ANTICIPATED FOR PZZ470. A FAIRLY POTENT FALL STORM WILL
START TO SPIN UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL GENERATES A WESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON WED. THE 0Z GFS WIND FIELD AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THIS STORM WAS 10 TO 15KT STRONGER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HOPEFULLY
WE WILL GET AN ASCAT PASS TO CONFIRM THE WESTERLY WIND BURST OF 50
TO 60KT. FOR NOW I JUST RAN WITH THE OUTPUT FROM THE WAVE MODELS
WHICH HAVE THE SWELL HITTING 12 TO 14 FT ON WED. SEAS SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARD ON THU...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THU
INTO FRI. DIRECT OUTPUT FROM THE MODELS INDICATE NOT MUCH WINDS WITH
THIS TROUGH. BEEFED UP THE WINDS OVER THE MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE WINDS MORE THAN 15
TO 20 KT. TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS FOR WINDS
TO BECOME N-NWLY. HOW STRONG IS SKETCHY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 221102
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
402 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY
MOVED NORTHEAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH. CONVERGENT
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE NEXT ADVANCING TROUGH
AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF ALLOWED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO FORM
OVER THE TRINITY HORN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
EXPANDING CLOUD COVER FARTHER INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...SOME DRIZZLE
HAS BEEN PRESENT ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS
LOW A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE SURFACE LOW TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST AS RIDGING
ENHANCES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. STILL...SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG COASTAL HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND THE
TUESDAY WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE
DEL NORTE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND INLAND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL
CIRCULATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
CAUSING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL FOR A FEW HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAINFALL TOTALS TO LIKELY EXCEED PREVIOUS FORECAST
AMOUNTS. THUS QPF FORECASTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE FORECAST
FROM LAST NIGHT. IN FACT...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR RECORD
RAINFALL FOR THE DATE ON WEDNESDAY IN BOTH CRESCENT CITY AND EUREKA
AND NEAR RECORD IN UKIAH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND A
HALF INCH IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY TO OVER 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED INCLUDING
THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT BRIEFLY
STALLS...TOTALS MAY BE GREATER THAN PREDICTED IN TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. RPA

RAINFALL RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 24TH:
CRESCENT CITY - 0.72 INCHES SET IN 1986
EUREKA        - 0.57 INCHES SET IN 1904
UKIAH         - 0.48 INCHES SET IN 1986


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DIVERGE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CUT OFF THE
TROUGH INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM EASTERN UNITED STATES
RIDGE...THE LOW WILL EITHER CUT OFF NEAR THE WEST COAST OR OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
THE FORECAST. A FARTHER WEST LOW...FAVORED BY THE ECMWF...WOULD
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A FARTHER EAST LOW...FAVORED BY THE
GFS...WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. FOR
NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GOING FORECAST INDICATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND A CONS BCALLBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE
RUNNING BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT AT KACV AND KCEC...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 1000 FT OR VSBY WILL DROP TO 2-5SM IN BR
OR -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. MVFR CLOUD LAYERS WILL PROBABLY PUSH
FARTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 4-5 FT AT 11 SECONDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS FROM THE FEW BUOYS ANCHORED IN NW CA WATERS WERE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AROUND 6 KTS OR LESS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TODAY AND S-SE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
SOME...PERHAPS UP TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS PROBABLY WONT CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUE AND WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH 20-25 KT AND 5-7 FT
SLY SEAS EXPECTED IN PZZ470. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS IS ANTICIPATED FOR PZZ470. A FAIRLY POTENT FALL STORM WILL
START TO SPIN UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL GENERATES A WESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON WED. THE 0Z GFS WIND FIELD AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THIS STORM WAS 10 TO 15KT STRONGER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HOPEFULLY
WE WILL GET AN ASCAT PASS TO CONFIRM THE WESTERLY WIND BURST OF 50
TO 60KT. FOR NOW I JUST RAN WITH THE OUTPUT FROM THE WAVE MODELS
WHICH HAVE THE SWELL HITTING 12 TO 14 FT ON WED. SEAS SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARD ON THU...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THU
INTO FRI. DIRECT OUTPUT FROM THE MODELS INDICATE NOT MUCH WINDS WITH
THIS TROUGH. BEEFED UP THE WINDS OVER THE MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE WINDS MORE THAN 15
TO 20 KT. TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS FOR WINDS
TO BECOME N-NWLY. HOW STRONG IS SKETCHY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 221102 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
402 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS
FINALLY MOVED NORTHEAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH.
CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE NEXT
ADVANCING TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF ALLOWED AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO FORM OVER THE TRINITY HORN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
EXPANDING CLOUD COVER FARTHER INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...SOME DRIZZLE
HAS BEEN PRESENT ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS
LOW A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE SURFACE LOW TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST AS RIDGING
ENHANCES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. STILL...SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG COASTAL HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND THE
TUESDAY WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE
DEL NORTE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND INLAND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL
CIRCULATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
CAUSING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL FOR A FEW HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAINFALL TOTALS TO LIKELY EXCEED PREVIOUS FORECAST
AMOUNTS. THUS QPF FORECASTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE FORECAST
FROM LAST NIGHT. IN FACT...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR RECORD
RAINFALL FOR THE DATE ON WEDNESDAY IN BOTH CRESCENT CITY AND EUREKA
AND NEAR RECORD IN UKIAH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND A
HALF INCH IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY TO OVER 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED INCLUDING
THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT BRIEFLY
STALLS...TOTALS MAY BE GREATER THAN PREDICTED IN TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. RPA

RAINFALL RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 24TH:
CRESCENT CITY - 0.72 INCHES SET IN 1986
EUREKA        - 0.57 INCHES SET IN 1904
UKIAH         - 0.48 INCHES SET IN 1986


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO DIVERGE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CUT OFF
THE TROUGH INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM EASTERN UNITED STATES
RIDGE...THE LOW WILL EITHER CUT OFF NEAR THE WEST COAST OR OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST. A FARTHER WEST LOW...FAVORED BY THE
ECMWF...WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A FARTHER EAST
LOW...FAVORED BY THE GFS...WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A CONS BCALLBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE
RUNNING BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT AT KACV AND KCEC...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 1000 FT OR VSBY WILL DROP TO 2-5SM IN BR
OR -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. MVFR CLOUD LAYERS WILL PROBABLY PUSH
FARTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 4-5 FT AT 11 SECONDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS FROM THE FEW BUOYS ANCHORED IN NW CA WATERS WERE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AROUND 6 KTS OR LESS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TODAY AND S-SE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
SOME...PERHAPS UP TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS PROBABLY WONT CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUE AND WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH 20-25 KT AND 5-7 FT
SLY SEAS EXPECTED IN PZZ470. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS IS ANTICIPATED FOR PZZ470. A FAIRLY POTENT FALL STORM WILL
START TO SPIN UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL GENERATES A WESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON WED. THE 0Z GFS WIND FIELD AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THIS STORM WAS 10 TO 15KT STRONGER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HOPEFULLY
WE WILL GET AN ASCAT PASS TO CONFIRM THE WESTERLY WIND BURST OF 50
TO 60KT. FOR NOW I JUST RAN WITH THE OUTPUT FROM THE WAVE MODELS
WHICH HAVE THE SWELL HITTING 12 TO 14 FT ON WED. SEAS SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARD ON THU...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THU
INTO FRI. DIRECT OUTPUT FROM THE MODELS INDICATE NOT MUCH WINDS WITH
THIS TROUGH. BEEFED UP THE WINDS OVER THE MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE WINDS MORE THAN 15
TO 20 KT. TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS FOR WINDS
TO BECOME N-NWLY. HOW STRONG IS SKETCHY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 221102
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
402 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY
MOVED NORTHEAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH. CONVERGENT
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE NEXT ADVANCING TROUGH
AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF ALLOWED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO FORM
OVER THE TRINITY HORN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
EXPANDING CLOUD COVER FARTHER INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...SOME DRIZZLE
HAS BEEN PRESENT ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS
LOW A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE SURFACE LOW TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST AS RIDGING
ENHANCES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. STILL...SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG COASTAL HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND THE
TUESDAY WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE
DEL NORTE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND INLAND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL
CIRCULATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
CAUSING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL FOR A FEW HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAINFALL TOTALS TO LIKELY EXCEED PREVIOUS FORECAST
AMOUNTS. THUS QPF FORECASTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE FORECAST
FROM LAST NIGHT. IN FACT...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR RECORD
RAINFALL FOR THE DATE ON WEDNESDAY IN BOTH CRESCENT CITY AND EUREKA
AND NEAR RECORD IN UKIAH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND A
HALF INCH IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY TO OVER 3 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED INCLUDING
THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT BRIEFLY
STALLS...TOTALS MAY BE GREATER THAN PREDICTED IN TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. RPA

RAINFALL RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 24TH:
CRESCENT CITY - 0.72 INCHES SET IN 1986
EUREKA        - 0.57 INCHES SET IN 1904
UKIAH         - 0.48 INCHES SET IN 1986


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DIVERGE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CUT OFF THE
TROUGH INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM EASTERN UNITED STATES
RIDGE...THE LOW WILL EITHER CUT OFF NEAR THE WEST COAST OR OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
THE FORECAST. A FARTHER WEST LOW...FAVORED BY THE ECMWF...WOULD
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A FARTHER EAST LOW...FAVORED BY THE
GFS...WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. FOR
NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GOING FORECAST INDICATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND A CONS BCALLBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE
RUNNING BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT AT KACV AND KCEC...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 1000 FT OR VSBY WILL DROP TO 2-5SM IN BR
OR -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. MVFR CLOUD LAYERS WILL PROBABLY PUSH
FARTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 4-5 FT AT 11 SECONDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS FROM THE FEW BUOYS ANCHORED IN NW CA WATERS WERE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AROUND 6 KTS OR LESS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TODAY AND S-SE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
SOME...PERHAPS UP TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS PROBABLY WONT CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUE AND WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH 20-25 KT AND 5-7 FT
SLY SEAS EXPECTED IN PZZ470. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS IS ANTICIPATED FOR PZZ470. A FAIRLY POTENT FALL STORM WILL
START TO SPIN UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL GENERATES A WESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON WED. THE 0Z GFS WIND FIELD AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THIS STORM WAS 10 TO 15KT STRONGER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HOPEFULLY
WE WILL GET AN ASCAT PASS TO CONFIRM THE WESTERLY WIND BURST OF 50
TO 60KT. FOR NOW I JUST RAN WITH THE OUTPUT FROM THE WAVE MODELS
WHICH HAVE THE SWELL HITTING 12 TO 14 FT ON WED. SEAS SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARD ON THU...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THU
INTO FRI. DIRECT OUTPUT FROM THE MODELS INDICATE NOT MUCH WINDS WITH
THIS TROUGH. BEEFED UP THE WINDS OVER THE MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE WINDS MORE THAN 15
TO 20 KT. TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS FOR WINDS
TO BECOME N-NWLY. HOW STRONG IS SKETCHY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 212231
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
331 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...2145Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG MOST OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP IN THESE LOCATIONS AS FOG
DEVELOPS. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
WEDNESDAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR RAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WHERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT WE WILL GET RAIN, SO RAISED THE POPS WITH THIS FORECAST.
THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY, BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM (THU THROUGH SUN)...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HEIGHTS
WILL NOT FALL MUCH. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE HAVE SOME ISSUES AS THEY
MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A POST FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THU INTO FRI WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS IT LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE NE. HOWEVER, THE EC KEEPS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING AROUND CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH MARCHING OFF TO THE EAST. IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING WHAT IS HAPPENING
TO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. AS
SUCH, HAVE LEFT A FEW POPS IN OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE EC WHILE NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTING THE
GFS. THE GEFS MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN.
TEMPS WERE DONE WITH AN ALLBLEND FORECAST TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
MODEL VARIATION AND THE ONGOING FORECAST. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...AT 2 PM LST...THE MARINE LAYER REMAIN QUITE EXTENSIVE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS WERE OCCURRING IN THE
MOSTLY OVERCAST LAYER. THIS ALLOWED MORE WARMING TO OCCUR
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT BAY TO THE ARCATA AIRPORT. CIGS
HAVE LIFTED TO NEAR 2000 FEET WITH FURTHER POCKETS OF CLEARING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WAS DEEP ENOUGH FOR
STRATUS TO PENETRATE THE NEAR COAST RANGE EAST OF FT BRAGG INTO
WILLITS WHILE STRATUS EXTENDED FROM SANTA ROSA THROUGH THE
ALEXANDER VALLEY INTO UKIAH. THE CIGS THERE DROPPED TO 200 FEET
(IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS). EXPECT STRATUS ABOUT 1000 FEET TO RETURN
INTO UKIAH AND WILLITS VALLEYS LATE OVERNIGHT. TA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE 5 TO 15
KT RANGE WITH EXCEPTION OF DIRECTLY AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE
WINDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 20 KT. A NW WAVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
FILTER THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND 5 FT AT 12 SECONDS. THIS TOO WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT, DROPPING TO AROUND 4 FT AT 11 SECONDS BY MONDAY.

THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE ON TUES AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOCALLY
STRONG GUSTS. STEEP SOUTHERLY WAVES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE
IN WINDS. TIMING VARIES A TOUCH FROM MODEL TO MODEL, BUT WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN THEIR INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER
THREAT WILL BE BUILDING POST FRONT SWELL. MODELS INDICATE THIS
SWELL OUT RUNNING THE FRONT AND ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE HIGHEST WINDS BEGIN. HOWEVER, THE SWELL
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS AS IT SLOWLY DECAYS OUT. AT ITS PEAK,
THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH 11 TO 13 FT AT ABOUT 15 SECONDS.

THE OTHER PIECE OF THE PUZZLE WILL BE WHAT IS HAPPENING BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DECAY, MODELS ARE HINTING AT
A POST FRONT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP WAVES AGAIN. WE`LL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 212231
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
331 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...2145Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG MOST OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP IN THESE LOCATIONS AS FOG
DEVELOPS. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
WEDNESDAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR RAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WHERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT WE WILL GET RAIN, SO RAISED THE POPS WITH THIS FORECAST.
THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY, BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM (THU THROUGH SUN)...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HEIGHTS
WILL NOT FALL MUCH. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE HAVE SOME ISSUES AS THEY
MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A POST FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THU INTO FRI WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS IT LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE NE. HOWEVER, THE EC KEEPS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING AROUND CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH MARCHING OFF TO THE EAST. IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING WHAT IS HAPPENING
TO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. AS
SUCH, HAVE LEFT A FEW POPS IN OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE EC WHILE NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTING THE
GFS. THE GEFS MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN.
TEMPS WERE DONE WITH AN ALLBLEND FORECAST TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
MODEL VARIATION AND THE ONGOING FORECAST. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...AT 2 PM LST...THE MARINE LAYER REMAIN QUITE EXTENSIVE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS WERE OCCURRING IN THE
MOSTLY OVERCAST LAYER. THIS ALLOWED MORE WARMING TO OCCUR
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT BAY TO THE ARCATA AIRPORT. CIGS
HAVE LIFTED TO NEAR 2000 FEET WITH FURTHER POCKETS OF CLEARING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WAS DEEP ENOUGH FOR
STRATUS TO PENETRATE THE NEAR COAST RANGE EAST OF FT BRAGG INTO
WILLITS WHILE STRATUS EXTENDED FROM SANTA ROSA THROUGH THE
ALEXANDER VALLEY INTO UKIAH. THE CIGS THERE DROPPED TO 200 FEET
(IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS). EXPECT STRATUS ABOUT 1000 FEET TO RETURN
INTO UKIAH AND WILLITS VALLEYS LATE OVERNIGHT. TA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE 5 TO 15
KT RANGE WITH EXCEPTION OF DIRECTLY AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE
WINDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 20 KT. A NW WAVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
FILTER THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND 5 FT AT 12 SECONDS. THIS TOO WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT, DROPPING TO AROUND 4 FT AT 11 SECONDS BY MONDAY.

THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE ON TUES AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOCALLY
STRONG GUSTS. STEEP SOUTHERLY WAVES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE
IN WINDS. TIMING VARIES A TOUCH FROM MODEL TO MODEL, BUT WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN THEIR INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER
THREAT WILL BE BUILDING POST FRONT SWELL. MODELS INDICATE THIS
SWELL OUT RUNNING THE FRONT AND ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE HIGHEST WINDS BEGIN. HOWEVER, THE SWELL
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS AS IT SLOWLY DECAYS OUT. AT ITS PEAK,
THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH 11 TO 13 FT AT ABOUT 15 SECONDS.

THE OTHER PIECE OF THE PUZZLE WILL BE WHAT IS HAPPENING BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DECAY, MODELS ARE HINTING AT
A POST FRONT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP WAVES AGAIN. WE`LL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 211110
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
410 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA PUMPING MOISTURE NORTH INTO NEVADA AND
EASTERN CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL
SIERRAS YESTERDAY WHICH HAVE SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN THE
VALLEY WHICH MAY HAVE BROUGHT A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHERN MENDOCINO
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE SCOTT MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MOISTURE PRESENT. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM OVER THE TRINITY HORN
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MATCH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO
INDICATE THIS SLIGHT POSSIBILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ADVANCING DEEP TROUGH RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
DISSIPATING. THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE WITHIN THE CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS IN THE MARINE
LAYER. RPA

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY) MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EC IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
TIMING OF FRONT BRINGING IT INTO CEC BY TUE EVENING WHILE GFS BRINGS
IT IN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE WED MORNING. I WILL LEAN TOWARD TIMING
OF GFS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH ALL OF TRINITY AND MENDO COUNTY
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PWATS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES AND THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) WHICH COMBINES
THE MOISTURE AND WIND IS ALSO HIGH WITH A RETURN INTERVAL OF 10
YEARS NEAR CEC AND 5 YEARS DOWN NEAR UKIAH. GOOD MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT.
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOULD SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE DAY
WED. BEHIND THE FRONT, MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH. GFS SWINGS IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. EC IS SLOWER
AND DEEPER WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING. WENT WITH WPC`S THINKING
WHICH SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LIKE THE GFS THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN US
TO SEE IF IT SLOWS DOWN THE TROUGH OR CUTS IT OFF AS IT COMES INTO
THE WEST COAST. WPC`S STILL FORECASTING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN
NEAR CEC FOR THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM AND AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES
EVERYWHERE ELSE. COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP DOWN
TO ABOUT 5C AND VERY HIGHEST PEAKS COULD GET A DUSTING OF SNOW.
LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK STEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL
STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. DEAN/RPA


&&

.AVIATION...AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATUS WAS COVERING NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SOME WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXTENDING LOCALLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. THE
STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CIGS SHOULD LIFT UP THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF CLEARING AROUND EUREKA-ARCATA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 6-7 FT AT 12 SECONDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY AROUND THE CAPE WITH BUOY 22
GUSTING AROUND 20 KT. THE TROUGH TO THE NW OF THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND FILL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD UP
FROM THE SW LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO TREND
DOWNWARD TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON MON AND FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE ESE. THE SSE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DO NOT LOOK INCREDIBLY STRONG AS THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES. BEEFED UP THE S AND SE WINDS SLIGHTLY IN PZZ470
WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KT SEEM POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ON TUE INTO WED AS A MORE POTENT
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT...BUT I DID BOOST UP THE
WINDS AND WIND WAVES OVER WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL GENERATES A WESTERLY SWELL NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE WIND FIELDS WITH THE
STORM AND FOR NOW I JUST RAN WITH THE OUTPUT FROM THE WAVE MODELS
WHICH HAVE THE SWELL PEAKING AROUND 12 FT ON WED.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 211110
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
410 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA PUMPING MOISTURE NORTH INTO NEVADA AND
EASTERN CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL
SIERRAS YESTERDAY WHICH HAVE SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN THE
VALLEY WHICH MAY HAVE BROUGHT A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHERN MENDOCINO
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE SCOTT MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MOISTURE PRESENT. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM OVER THE TRINITY HORN
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MATCH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO
INDICATE THIS SLIGHT POSSIBILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ADVANCING DEEP TROUGH RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
DISSIPATING. THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE WITHIN THE CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS IN THE MARINE
LAYER. RPA

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY) MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EC IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
TIMING OF FRONT BRINGING IT INTO CEC BY TUE EVENING WHILE GFS BRINGS
IT IN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE WED MORNING. I WILL LEAN TOWARD TIMING
OF GFS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH ALL OF TRINITY AND MENDO COUNTY
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PWATS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES AND THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) WHICH COMBINES
THE MOISTURE AND WIND IS ALSO HIGH WITH A RETURN INTERVAL OF 10
YEARS NEAR CEC AND 5 YEARS DOWN NEAR UKIAH. GOOD MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT.
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOULD SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE DAY
WED. BEHIND THE FRONT, MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH. GFS SWINGS IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. EC IS SLOWER
AND DEEPER WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING. WENT WITH WPC`S THINKING
WHICH SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LIKE THE GFS THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN US
TO SEE IF IT SLOWS DOWN THE TROUGH OR CUTS IT OFF AS IT COMES INTO
THE WEST COAST. WPC`S STILL FORECASTING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN
NEAR CEC FOR THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM AND AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES
EVERYWHERE ELSE. COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP DOWN
TO ABOUT 5C AND VERY HIGHEST PEAKS COULD GET A DUSTING OF SNOW.
LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK STEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL
STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. DEAN/RPA


&&

.AVIATION...AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATUS WAS COVERING NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SOME WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXTENDING LOCALLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. THE
STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CIGS SHOULD LIFT UP THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF CLEARING AROUND EUREKA-ARCATA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 6-7 FT AT 12 SECONDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY AROUND THE CAPE WITH BUOY 22
GUSTING AROUND 20 KT. THE TROUGH TO THE NW OF THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND FILL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD UP
FROM THE SW LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO TREND
DOWNWARD TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON MON AND FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE ESE. THE SSE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DO NOT LOOK INCREDIBLY STRONG AS THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES. BEEFED UP THE S AND SE WINDS SLIGHTLY IN PZZ470
WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KT SEEM POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ON TUE INTO WED AS A MORE POTENT
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT...BUT I DID BOOST UP THE
WINDS AND WIND WAVES OVER WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL GENERATES A WESTERLY SWELL NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE WIND FIELDS WITH THE
STORM AND FOR NOW I JUST RAN WITH THE OUTPUT FROM THE WAVE MODELS
WHICH HAVE THE SWELL PEAKING AROUND 12 FT ON WED.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 202226
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
326 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...2130Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG MOST OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP IN THESE LOCATIONS AS FOG
DEVELOPS. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. A PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM (TUE MORNING-SATURDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT BUT ONLY NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND IMPACTS THE COAST. EC IS A
LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING OF FRONT BRINGING IT INTO CEC BY TUE
EVENING WHILE GFS BRINGS IT IN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE WED
MORNING. I WILL LEAN TOWARD TIMING OF GFS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH ALL OF TRINITY AND MENDO COUNTY BY WED EVENING. PWATS
AHEAD OF FRONT ARE BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND THE INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) WHICH COMBINES THE MOISTURE AND WIND IS ALSO
HIGH WITH A RETURN INTERVAL OF 10 YEARS NEAR CEC AND 5 YEARS DOWN
NEAR UKIAH. WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE DAY WED. BEHIND
FRONT, MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH. GFS SWINGS IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. EC IS SLOWER AND DEEPER
WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING. WENT WITH WPC`S THINKING WHICH
SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LIKE THE GFS THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
US TO SEE IF IT SLOWS DOWN THE TROUGH OR CUTS IT OFF AS IT COMES
INTO THE WEST COAST. WPC`S STILL FORECASTING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN NEAR CEC FOR THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM AND AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES
EVERYWHERE ELSE. COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
DOWN TO ABOUT 5C AND VERY HIGHEST PEAKS COULD GET A DUSTING OF
SNOW. LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK STEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
BUT WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. DEAN

&&

.AVIATION...2130Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG MOST OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BRINGING LIFR, AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
THICKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP IN MOST LOCATIONS AS FOG DEVELOPS.
INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN MENDOCINO
COUNTY WHERE VALLEY CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OR/CA BORDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINING
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO TODAY. A LATE MORNING
ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST WITH 20 KT WINDS
AROUND THE CAPE. WHILE AT BUOY 22 THE GUSTS HAVE PROVEN TO BE WELL
FORECAST AT AROUND 25 KT. AS THIS LOW LIFTS TO THE NW AND FILLS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THE WINDS WILL COME DOWN WHICH IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEEP SOUTHERLY WAVES TO SUBSIDE.
OTHERWISE, A NW SWELL REMAINS THE MAIN HEIGHT PLAYER IN THE SEA
STATE, RUNNING AROUND 7 FT AT 12 SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD
HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 4 FT
AT 10 SECONDS.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS
WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASES OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TUE INTO WED,
EXPECT WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH RESULTANT STEEP
SOUTHERLY WAVES. AT THE SAME TIME A POST FRONTAL WESTERLY SWELL,
WHICH IS OUT RUNNING THE SPEED OF THE FRONT, WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS, PEAKING OUT AROUND 12 FT AT 15 SECONDS OVERNIGHT
WED INTO THU. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED BY
MIDWEEK FOR ALL WATERS, WE`LL BE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
HOISTING A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE AS QUICKLY AS THEY BUILT ON THU INTO FRI.
MODEL SHOW NW CAL SLIDING UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR EASING WINDS AND SUBSIDING STEEP WAVES. TIMING
REMAINS A LITTLE FUZZY WITH THE ONSET AND SUBSIDING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS, BUT REGARDLESS MIDWEEK IS LOOKING NOT SO NICE TO BE
OUT TO SEA. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND THIS DISCUSSION FOR
THE LATEST INFO. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 202226
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
326 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...2130Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG MOST OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP IN THESE LOCATIONS AS FOG
DEVELOPS. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. A PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM (TUE MORNING-SATURDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT BUT ONLY NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND IMPACTS THE COAST. EC IS A
LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING OF FRONT BRINGING IT INTO CEC BY TUE
EVENING WHILE GFS BRINGS IT IN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE WED
MORNING. I WILL LEAN TOWARD TIMING OF GFS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH ALL OF TRINITY AND MENDO COUNTY BY WED EVENING. PWATS
AHEAD OF FRONT ARE BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND THE INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) WHICH COMBINES THE MOISTURE AND WIND IS ALSO
HIGH WITH A RETURN INTERVAL OF 10 YEARS NEAR CEC AND 5 YEARS DOWN
NEAR UKIAH. WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE DAY WED. BEHIND
FRONT, MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH. GFS SWINGS IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. EC IS SLOWER AND DEEPER
WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING. WENT WITH WPC`S THINKING WHICH
SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH LIKE THE GFS THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
US TO SEE IF IT SLOWS DOWN THE TROUGH OR CUTS IT OFF AS IT COMES
INTO THE WEST COAST. WPC`S STILL FORECASTING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN NEAR CEC FOR THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM AND AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES
EVERYWHERE ELSE. COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
DOWN TO ABOUT 5C AND VERY HIGHEST PEAKS COULD GET A DUSTING OF
SNOW. LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK STEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
BUT WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. DEAN

&&

.AVIATION...2130Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG MOST OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BRINGING LIFR, AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
THICKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP IN MOST LOCATIONS AS FOG DEVELOPS.
INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN MENDOCINO
COUNTY WHERE VALLEY CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OR/CA BORDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINING
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO TODAY. A LATE MORNING
ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST WITH 20 KT WINDS
AROUND THE CAPE. WHILE AT BUOY 22 THE GUSTS HAVE PROVEN TO BE WELL
FORECAST AT AROUND 25 KT. AS THIS LOW LIFTS TO THE NW AND FILLS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THE WINDS WILL COME DOWN WHICH IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEEP SOUTHERLY WAVES TO SUBSIDE.
OTHERWISE, A NW SWELL REMAINS THE MAIN HEIGHT PLAYER IN THE SEA
STATE, RUNNING AROUND 7 FT AT 12 SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD
HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 4 FT
AT 10 SECONDS.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS
WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASES OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TUE INTO WED,
EXPECT WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH RESULTANT STEEP
SOUTHERLY WAVES. AT THE SAME TIME A POST FRONTAL WESTERLY SWELL,
WHICH IS OUT RUNNING THE SPEED OF THE FRONT, WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS, PEAKING OUT AROUND 12 FT AT 15 SECONDS OVERNIGHT
WED INTO THU. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED BY
MIDWEEK FOR ALL WATERS, WE`LL BE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
HOISTING A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE AS QUICKLY AS THEY BUILT ON THU INTO FRI.
MODEL SHOW NW CAL SLIDING UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR EASING WINDS AND SUBSIDING STEEP WAVES. TIMING
REMAINS A LITTLE FUZZY WITH THE ONSET AND SUBSIDING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS, BUT REGARDLESS MIDWEEK IS LOOKING NOT SO NICE TO BE
OUT TO SEA. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND THIS DISCUSSION FOR
THE LATEST INFO. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 201315
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
615 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF
STRATUS MOVES UP THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST.


&&

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING TO
MATCH AS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED
BELOW.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS HAS ALLOWED OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH HAS MOVED WEST OFF THE COAST...A STRATUS SURGE
HAS DEVELOPED AND HAS PUSHED AS FAR NORTH AS TRINIDAD AS OF 3 AM.
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST SHOULD ONLY INCREASE
ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH. AREAS OF COASTAL
FOG WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A STRONG MARINE
INVERSION SPREADING NORTH TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND IMPACTS THE COAST. A DEEP
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY LEADING TO ONLY SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A POSSIBLE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL
BE THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH WILL BE POWERFUL ENOUGH TO PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT ONTO THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IN GENERAL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY.

CONSIDERING THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY FORCED AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL POSSIBLY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR THE
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME CAPE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE
TO SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO EVEN WITH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED. A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE LEADING TO
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AGAIN...THERE WILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT LEADING TO
THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITIES BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 5C
WITHIN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH TO EXPECT
ANY SMALL HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL
LIKELY BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THOUGH MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT IN THE FAR EXTENDED. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN DRAWING STRATUS NORTHWARD
AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE WIND FLOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE STRATUS OUT OF KACV AND
KCEC...THOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
AND THE PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
STRATUS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY DRAW THE LOW CLOUDS ONTO THE COAST. THE LAYER
IS SHALLOW AND SMASHED...SO VSBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG IS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
INCLUDE PZZ450 UNTIL MID MORNING WITH BUOYS REPORTING NORTHERLY
SEAS AROUND 7 FT AT 7 SECONDS. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS WILL EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER OREGON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GONE
SOUTHERLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO AND WILL GO SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASED THE WIND
MAGNITUDE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ABOVE THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CAPE. EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
TYPICALLY DOES NOT CAPTURE THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLIES VERY
WELL. WEAK SFC RIDGING SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL LIKELY KEEP
GRADIENTS LOOSE AND WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AFTER SHORT PERIOD
SEAS LAY DOWN LATER THIS WEEKEND...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY
WAVES OF PARTICULAR SIGNIFICANCE UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM GENERATES A
WESTERLY SWELL NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON THE WIND FIELDS. FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH THE OUTPUT
FROM THE WAVE MODELS WHICH HAVE THE SWELL PEAKING AROUND 12 FT ON
WED.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 201315
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
615 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF
STRATUS MOVES UP THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST.


&&

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING TO
MATCH AS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED
BELOW.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS HAS ALLOWED OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH HAS MOVED WEST OFF THE COAST...A STRATUS SURGE
HAS DEVELOPED AND HAS PUSHED AS FAR NORTH AS TRINIDAD AS OF 3 AM.
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST SHOULD ONLY INCREASE
ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH. AREAS OF COASTAL
FOG WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A STRONG MARINE
INVERSION SPREADING NORTH TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND IMPACTS THE COAST. A DEEP
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY LEADING TO ONLY SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A POSSIBLE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL
BE THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH WILL BE POWERFUL ENOUGH TO PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT ONTO THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IN GENERAL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY.

CONSIDERING THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY FORCED AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL POSSIBLY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR THE
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME CAPE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE
TO SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO EVEN WITH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED. A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE LEADING TO
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AGAIN...THERE WILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT LEADING TO
THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITIES BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 5C
WITHIN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH TO EXPECT
ANY SMALL HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL
LIKELY BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THOUGH MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT IN THE FAR EXTENDED. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN DRAWING STRATUS NORTHWARD
AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE WIND FLOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE STRATUS OUT OF KACV AND
KCEC...THOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
AND THE PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
STRATUS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY DRAW THE LOW CLOUDS ONTO THE COAST. THE LAYER
IS SHALLOW AND SMASHED...SO VSBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG IS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
INCLUDE PZZ450 UNTIL MID MORNING WITH BUOYS REPORTING NORTHERLY
SEAS AROUND 7 FT AT 7 SECONDS. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS WILL EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER OREGON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GONE
SOUTHERLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO AND WILL GO SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASED THE WIND
MAGNITUDE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ABOVE THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CAPE. EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
TYPICALLY DOES NOT CAPTURE THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLIES VERY
WELL. WEAK SFC RIDGING SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL LIKELY KEEP
GRADIENTS LOOSE AND WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AFTER SHORT PERIOD
SEAS LAY DOWN LATER THIS WEEKEND...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY
WAVES OF PARTICULAR SIGNIFICANCE UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM GENERATES A
WESTERLY SWELL NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON THE WIND FIELDS. FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH THE OUTPUT
FROM THE WAVE MODELS WHICH HAVE THE SWELL PEAKING AROUND 12 FT ON
WED.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 201030
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF
STRATUS MOVES UP THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS HAS ALLOWED OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH HAS MOVED WEST OFF THE COAST...A STRATUS SURGE
HAS DEVELOPED AND HAS PUSHED AS FAR NORTH AS TRINIDAD AS OF 3 AM.
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST SHOULD ONLY INCREASE
ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH. AREAS OF COASTAL
FOG WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A STRONG MARINE
INVERSION SPREADING NORTH TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND IMPACTS THE COAST. A DEEP
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY LEADING TO ONLY SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A POSSIBLE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL
BE THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH WILL BE POWERFUL ENOUGH TO PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT ONTO THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IN GENERAL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY.

CONSIDERING THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY FORCED AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL POSSIBLY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR THE
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME CAPE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE
TO SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO EVEN WITH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED. A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE LEADING TO
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AGAIN...THERE WILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT LEADING TO
THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITIES BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 5C
WITHIN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH TO EXPECT
ANY SMALL HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL
LIKELY BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THOUGH MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT IN THE FAR EXTENDED. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN DRAWING STRATUS NORTHWARD
AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE WIND FLOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE STRATUS OUT OF KACV AND
KCEC...THOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
AND THE PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
STRATUS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY DRAW THE LOW CLOUDS ONTO THE COAST. THE LAYER
IS SHALLOW AND SMASHED...SO VSBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG IS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
INCLUDE PZZ450 UNTIL MID MORNING WITH BUOYS REPORTING NORTHERLY
SEAS AROUND 7 FT AT 7 SECONDS. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS WILL EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER OREGON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GONE
SOUTHERLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO AND WILL GO SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASED THE WIND
MAGNITUDE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ABOVE THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CAPE. EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
TYPICALLY DOES NOT CAPTURE THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLIES VERY
WELL. WEAK SFC RIDGING SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL LIKELY KEEP
GRADIENTS LOOSE AND WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AFTER SHORT PERIOD
SEAS LAY DOWN LATER THIS WEEKEND...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY
WAVES OF PARTICULAR SIGNIFICANCE UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM GENERATES A
WESTERLY SWELL NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON THE WIND FIELDS. FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH THE OUTPUT
FROM THE WAVE MODELS WHICH HAVE THE SWELL PEAKING AROUND 12 FT ON
WED.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





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