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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THROUGH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE KEEPING LAPSE RATES WEAK...RESULTING IN
FEWER STORMS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS CRUCES...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAS CRUCES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE AND HAVE A BIT
LESS MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT MOST
STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW AREAS OF MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR
NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT.

DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS IT APART AT ITS NORTHERN END. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...HELPING TO
SUPPRESS FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION
OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO PROJECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE NEXT
FRIDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN070-090 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 6SM SHRA BKN040-060
WITH ISOLD TS WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT AREAS EAST WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  69  93 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  70  52  71 /  40  60  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  66  88 /  40  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             58  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  20
DEMING                  63  88  65  90 /  40  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               62  85  64  87 /  40  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  93  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               70  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  95  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              67  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  68  94  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  68  91 /  20  30  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   63  89  65  91 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                65  89  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  30  50  40  40
MESCALERO               55  80  55  80 /  40  50  40  30
TIMBERON                58  78  59  78 /  30  50  40  30
WINSTON                 55  77  57  78 /  50  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               60  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               64  88  66  90 /  30  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  77  53  81 /  50  40  30  30
HURLEY                  59  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLIFF                   58  83  60  85 /  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              53  79  55  82 /  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 59  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  63  85  64  86 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 62  86  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  84  63  86 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              60  80  62  82 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THROUGH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE KEEPING LAPSE RATES WEAK...RESULTING IN
FEWER STORMS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS CRUCES...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAS CRUCES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE AND HAVE A BIT
LESS MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT MOST
STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW AREAS OF MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR
NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT.

DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS IT APART AT ITS NORTHERN END. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...HELPING TO
SUPPRESS FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION
OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO PROJECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE NEXT
FRIDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN070-090 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 6SM SHRA BKN040-060
WITH ISOLD TS WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT AREAS EAST WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  69  93 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  70  52  71 /  40  60  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  66  88 /  40  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             58  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  20
DEMING                  63  88  65  90 /  40  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               62  85  64  87 /  40  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  93  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               70  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  95  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              67  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  68  94  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  68  91 /  20  30  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   63  89  65  91 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                65  89  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  30  50  40  40
MESCALERO               55  80  55  80 /  40  50  40  30
TIMBERON                58  78  59  78 /  30  50  40  30
WINSTON                 55  77  57  78 /  50  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               60  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               64  88  66  90 /  30  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  77  53  81 /  50  40  30  30
HURLEY                  59  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLIFF                   58  83  60  85 /  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              53  79  55  82 /  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 59  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  63  85  64  86 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 62  86  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  84  63  86 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              60  80  62  82 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THROUGH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE KEEPING LAPSE RATES WEAK...RESULTING IN
FEWER STORMS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS CRUCES...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAS CRUCES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE AND HAVE A BIT
LESS MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT MOST
STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW AREAS OF MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR
NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT.

DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS IT APART AT ITS NORTHERN END. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...HELPING TO
SUPPRESS FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION
OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO PROJECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE NEXT
FRIDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN070-090 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 6SM SHRA BKN040-060
WITH ISOLD TS WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT AREAS EAST WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  69  93 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  70  52  71 /  40  60  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  66  88 /  40  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             58  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  20
DEMING                  63  88  65  90 /  40  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               62  85  64  87 /  40  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  93  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               70  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  95  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              67  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  68  94  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  68  91 /  20  30  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   63  89  65  91 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                65  89  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  30  50  40  40
MESCALERO               55  80  55  80 /  40  50  40  30
TIMBERON                58  78  59  78 /  30  50  40  30
WINSTON                 55  77  57  78 /  50  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               60  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               64  88  66  90 /  30  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  77  53  81 /  50  40  30  30
HURLEY                  59  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLIFF                   58  83  60  85 /  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              53  79  55  82 /  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 59  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  63  85  64  86 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 62  86  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  84  63  86 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              60  80  62  82 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN WE WILL SEE OUR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF RAIN
CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE HAS RETURNED AND SO HAVE OUR RAIN CHANCES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AMOUNT OF WATER VAPOR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE) HAVE CREPT ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND
BY FRIDAY THEY WILL BE 1.30 TO 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT AS USUAL DURING THE MONSOON
SEASON WE DON`T HAVE A REAL GOOD TRIGGER TO CONVERT THE WATER
VAPOR TO THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO LET THE SUN AND TERRAIN
GET THINGS GOING AND THEN ONCE THE OUTFLOWS START GOING AROUND WE
WILL SEE MORE WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT THAN WE HAVE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE OUT SO OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF STARTS TO DRY US OUT AND MAYBE EVEN
SIGNAL AN END TO OUR MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS US PRETTY WET WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH AND LOTS OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER IT. FOR NOW I WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION...BUT THE END OF THIS
YEAR`S MONSOON PATTERN MAY COME SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS FINALLY COOL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL TODAY AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS HELP KEEP US FROM
GETTING SO WARM. FOR TODAY EL PASO WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ITS
STREAK OF DAYS WITH 90+ FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THE
STREAK STANDS OUT 99. IF WE DO REACH 90 TODAY IT WON`T BE BY MUCH
AND IT WILL BE EVEN HARDER TO HIT 90 ON FRIDAY. IF WE MAKE IT
PAST FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SO THAT
WOULD CONTINUE THE STREAK A WHILE LONGER...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE STREAK MAY END ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE RETURNED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. WE WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT IN SOME AREAS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STORM MOVEMENTS TODAY WILL BE TO THE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS WE WILL SEE SCT-BKN070-120
SKIES. LATER IN THE DAY WE WILL SEE BKN070 CEILINGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA TODAY.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
(EXCEPT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS). MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR
HIGHER EVERYWHERE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 91  69  90  68 /  20  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           90  65  91  64 /  10  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              88  64  85  62 /  20  30  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              89  65  89  64 /  20  20  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              67  49  67  48 /  40  30  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   84  63  82  61 /  40  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             78  57  77  56 /  50  40  60  50
DEMING                  85  62  86  60 /  40  30  50  40
LORDSBURG               83  62  84  60 /  50  40  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  69  91  68 /  20  20  10  30
DELL CITY               93  69  94  68 /  10  20  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            93  69  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
LOMA LINDA              87  65  87  64 /  10  20  10  20
FABENS                  92  67  92  65 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            89  67  88  65 /  20  30  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          88  66  87  65 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           87  65  86  63 /  20  30  20  30
HATCH                   87  63  86  60 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                87  63  87  62 /  30  30  40  40
OROGRANDE               89  67  88  66 /  20  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 75  55  75  54 /  40  30  40  30
MESCALERO               77  55  77  53 /  40  30  40  40
TIMBERON                75  56  75  55 /  30  20  30  30
WINSTON                 74  55  73  52 /  50  40  50  50
HILLSBORO               84  59  82  57 /  40  40  50  40
SPACEPORT               85  63  84  61 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            76  51  74  48 /  50  40  60  50
HURLEY                  80  58  80  56 /  40  40  50  40
CLIFF                   81  58  80  55 /  50  40  60  50
MULE CREEK              79  54  76  51 /  50  40  60  50
FAYWOOD                 82  58  80  56 /  40  40  50  40
ANIMAS                  82  62  83  61 /  50  40  50  40
HACHITA                 84  61  85  59 /  50  40  50  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  60  82  58 /  50  50  50  40
CLOVERDALE              76  58  77  58 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN WE WILL SEE OUR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF RAIN
CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE HAS RETURNED AND SO HAVE OUR RAIN CHANCES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AMOUNT OF WATER VAPOR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE) HAVE CREPT ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND
BY FRIDAY THEY WILL BE 1.30 TO 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT AS USUAL DURING THE MONSOON
SEASON WE DON`T HAVE A REAL GOOD TRIGGER TO CONVERT THE WATER
VAPOR TO THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO LET THE SUN AND TERRAIN
GET THINGS GOING AND THEN ONCE THE OUTFLOWS START GOING AROUND WE
WILL SEE MORE WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT THAN WE HAVE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE OUT SO OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF STARTS TO DRY US OUT AND MAYBE EVEN
SIGNAL AN END TO OUR MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS US PRETTY WET WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH AND LOTS OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER IT. FOR NOW I WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION...BUT THE END OF THIS
YEAR`S MONSOON PATTERN MAY COME SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS FINALLY COOL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL TODAY AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS HELP KEEP US FROM
GETTING SO WARM. FOR TODAY EL PASO WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ITS
STREAK OF DAYS WITH 90+ FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THE
STREAK STANDS OUT 99. IF WE DO REACH 90 TODAY IT WON`T BE BY MUCH
AND IT WILL BE EVEN HARDER TO HIT 90 ON FRIDAY. IF WE MAKE IT
PAST FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SO THAT
WOULD CONTINUE THE STREAK A WHILE LONGER...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE STREAK MAY END ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE RETURNED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. WE WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT IN SOME AREAS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STORM MOVEMENTS TODAY WILL BE TO THE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS WE WILL SEE SCT-BKN070-120
SKIES. LATER IN THE DAY WE WILL SEE BKN070 CEILINGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA TODAY.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
(EXCEPT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS). MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR
HIGHER EVERYWHERE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 91  69  90  68 /  20  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           90  65  91  64 /  10  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              88  64  85  62 /  20  30  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              89  65  89  64 /  20  20  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              67  49  67  48 /  40  30  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   84  63  82  61 /  40  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             78  57  77  56 /  50  40  60  50
DEMING                  85  62  86  60 /  40  30  50  40
LORDSBURG               83  62  84  60 /  50  40  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  69  91  68 /  20  20  10  30
DELL CITY               93  69  94  68 /  10  20  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            93  69  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
LOMA LINDA              87  65  87  64 /  10  20  10  20
FABENS                  92  67  92  65 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            89  67  88  65 /  20  30  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          88  66  87  65 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           87  65  86  63 /  20  30  20  30
HATCH                   87  63  86  60 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                87  63  87  62 /  30  30  40  40
OROGRANDE               89  67  88  66 /  20  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 75  55  75  54 /  40  30  40  30
MESCALERO               77  55  77  53 /  40  30  40  40
TIMBERON                75  56  75  55 /  30  20  30  30
WINSTON                 74  55  73  52 /  50  40  50  50
HILLSBORO               84  59  82  57 /  40  40  50  40
SPACEPORT               85  63  84  61 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            76  51  74  48 /  50  40  60  50
HURLEY                  80  58  80  56 /  40  40  50  40
CLIFF                   81  58  80  55 /  50  40  60  50
MULE CREEK              79  54  76  51 /  50  40  60  50
FAYWOOD                 82  58  80  56 /  40  40  50  40
ANIMAS                  82  62  83  61 /  50  40  50  40
HACHITA                 84  61  85  59 /  50  40  50  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  60  82  58 /  50  50  50  40
CLOVERDALE              76  58  77  58 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF LAS CRUCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE STRADDLES THE REGION. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COUPLE OF MOSTLY DRY DAYS...THE MOISTURE PLUME IS
BEGINNINGTO SLOWLY SHIFT BACK OVER THE STATE. MUCH OF TONIGHT`S
LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND AREAS WEST OF LAS CRUCES TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW. FOR AREAS TO THE EAST MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
RISE MORE SLOWLY BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
AND PARTS OF THE BOOT HEEL. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...
ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS MAY OCCUR. RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST WILL BE MORE SPOTTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN.

ON FRIDAY...THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PARTLY UNDER THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...WHICH IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND A LARGE PACIFIC LOW ON THE WEST COAST.
SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PLUME WILL HELP GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST IN THE
GILA REGION AND NEARBY SURROUNDING AREAS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

DURING THE WEEKEND THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
AND TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS CHANGE WILL PULL THE
MOISTURE PLUME MORE TO THE EAST AND MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY THE TIME SO RAIN AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE AS
HIGH. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL PUMP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED STATE
WIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF DIVIDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF DIVIDE. WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY W AOB 12KTS BUT
WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE E TO NE ALONG AND E OF KALM-KELP
LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY
EAST OF DIVIDE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND WHERE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE TEENS. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL COME GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GILA REGION INTO THE BOOTHEEL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
OVER THE COMING WEEK IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
RISING INTO THE 20S AND 30S LOWLANDS AND 40S TO 50S MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  93  69  89 /  20  20  20  10
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  65  90 /  20  10  20  10
LAS CRUCES              67  90  64  84 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  65  88 /  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  69  49  66 /  30  40  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  86  63  81 /  30  40  30  40
SILVER CITY             61  80  57  76 /  30  50  40  50
DEMING                  66  87  62  85 /  30  40  30  40
LORDSBURG               65  85  62  83 /  30  50  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  93  69  90 /  20  20  20  10
DELL CITY               68  95  69  93 /  10  10  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            71  95  69  92 /  20  10  20  10
LOMA LINDA              69  89  65  86 /  20  10  20  10
FABENS                  70  94  67  91 /  20  10  20  10
SANTA TERESA            71  91  67  87 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  90  66  86 /  20  20  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           67  89  65  85 /  30  20  30  20
HATCH                   66  89  63  85 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                68  89  63  86 /  30  30  30  40
OROGRANDE               70  91  67  87 /  20  20  20  10
MAYHILL                 57  77  55  74 /  30  40  30  40
MESCALERO               56  79  55  76 /  30  40  30  40
TIMBERON                58  77  56  74 /  30  30  20  30
WINSTON                 58  76  55  72 /  40  50  40  50
HILLSBORO               63  86  59  81 /  30  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               67  87  63  83 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            54  78  51  73 /  40  50  40  50
HURLEY                  63  82  58  79 /  30  40  40  40
CLIFF                   61  83  58  79 /  30  50  40  50
MULE CREEK              57  81  54  75 /  30  50  40  50
FAYWOOD                 63  84  58  79 /  30  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  65  84  62  82 /  30  50  40  40
HACHITA                 65  86  61  84 /  30  50  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  82  60  81 /  30  50  50  50
CLOVERDALE              62  78  58  76 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 021011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE OUR RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES DECREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWLANDS MAY DIP BELOW 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST 3 MONTHS. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR WEST IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PLUME TO DRIFT BACK OVER NEW MEXICO FROM ARIZONA. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF DEMING AND T OR C...BUT NOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE TO GIVE EVERYWHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SO THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD HINTED AT
A POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT THE
CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS KEEPS THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WEST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE.

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO RESTRENGTHEN AND MOVE
BACK IN OUR DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS WEST IT STARTS TO CUT
OFF OUR MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE HAS STARTED
DRIFTING BACK EAST SO THAT DEEP MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
RIVER...CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MONSOON SEASON ISN`T OVER YET...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT IS GETTING OLD AS THE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO GET STRONGER TO OUR NORTH. IT WON`T BE LONG BEFORE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE IS SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA FOR GOOD.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY...BUT FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD END EL PASO
STREAK OF 90+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES DAYS AT 100. BY SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL OR MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE`VE SEEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF A LINE FROM KDMN TO KTCS AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
AND WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE TODAY. WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WE COULD
SEE CEILINGS OF BKN120...BUT EAST OF THE RIVER WE SHOULD STAY
SCT120 EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH AND WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OTHER THING TO BE AWARE OF TODAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS OF
VRB30G40KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WE HAVE BEEN DRY AND WARM BUT THAT IS
CHANGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS TODAY. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR OR MAYBE EVEN BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH`S WHICH HAD BEEN
HOVERING NEAR 20% IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEAR 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL JUMP UP TO THE 30`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 50`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  71  92  69 /  20  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           95  66  91  65 /   0  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              94  66  90  64 /  20  20  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              95  66  90  65 /  20  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              71  48  68  49 /  30  30  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  65  86  63 /  30  20  40  30
SILVER CITY             84  61  80  57 /  30  20  50  50
DEMING                  93  65  87  62 /  20  20  50  40
LORDSBURG               92  64  85  62 /  20  20  50  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  72  92  69 /  20  20  10  20
DELL CITY               97  66  94  69 /   0  20  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            97  70  94  69 /   0  20  10  20
LOMA LINDA              94  68  89  65 /   0  20  10  20
FABENS                  97  69  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            95  69  91  67 /  20  20  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  68  90  66 /  20  20  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           94  66  89  65 /  20  20  20  20
HATCH                   94  65  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS                94  67  89  63 /  20  20  50  40
OROGRANDE               95  69  91  67 /  20  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 79  55  76  55 /  30  30  40  30
MESCALERO               81  54  78  55 /  30  30  40  30
TIMBERON                80  57  76  56 /  20  30  30  30
WINSTON                 81  57  77  55 /  40  30  40  50
HILLSBORO               91  63  87  59 /  30  20  40  40
SPACEPORT               92  65  87  63 /  20  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            83  54  78  51 /  30  30  50  50
HURLEY                  87  62  82  58 /  20  20  50  50
CLIFF                   91  60  83  58 /  20  20  50  50
MULE CREEK              90  57  81  54 /  20  20  50  50
FAYWOOD                 89  62  84  58 /  30  20  50  50
ANIMAS                  90  64  84  62 /  20  20  50  50
HACHITA                 92  65  86  61 /  20  20  50  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          88  62  82  60 /  30  20  50  50
CLOVERDALE              85  62  79  58 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 021011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE OUR RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES DECREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWLANDS MAY DIP BELOW 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST 3 MONTHS. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR WEST IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PLUME TO DRIFT BACK OVER NEW MEXICO FROM ARIZONA. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF DEMING AND T OR C...BUT NOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE TO GIVE EVERYWHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SO THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD HINTED AT
A POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT THE
CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS KEEPS THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WEST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE.

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO RESTRENGTHEN AND MOVE
BACK IN OUR DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS WEST IT STARTS TO CUT
OFF OUR MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE HAS STARTED
DRIFTING BACK EAST SO THAT DEEP MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
RIVER...CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MONSOON SEASON ISN`T OVER YET...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT IS GETTING OLD AS THE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO GET STRONGER TO OUR NORTH. IT WON`T BE LONG BEFORE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE IS SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA FOR GOOD.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY...BUT FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD END EL PASO
STREAK OF 90+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES DAYS AT 100. BY SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL OR MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE`VE SEEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF A LINE FROM KDMN TO KTCS AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
AND WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE TODAY. WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WE COULD
SEE CEILINGS OF BKN120...BUT EAST OF THE RIVER WE SHOULD STAY
SCT120 EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH AND WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OTHER THING TO BE AWARE OF TODAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS OF
VRB30G40KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WE HAVE BEEN DRY AND WARM BUT THAT IS
CHANGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS TODAY. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR OR MAYBE EVEN BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH`S WHICH HAD BEEN
HOVERING NEAR 20% IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEAR 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL JUMP UP TO THE 30`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 50`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  71  92  69 /  20  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           95  66  91  65 /   0  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              94  66  90  64 /  20  20  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              95  66  90  65 /  20  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              71  48  68  49 /  30  30  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  65  86  63 /  30  20  40  30
SILVER CITY             84  61  80  57 /  30  20  50  50
DEMING                  93  65  87  62 /  20  20  50  40
LORDSBURG               92  64  85  62 /  20  20  50  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  72  92  69 /  20  20  10  20
DELL CITY               97  66  94  69 /   0  20  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            97  70  94  69 /   0  20  10  20
LOMA LINDA              94  68  89  65 /   0  20  10  20
FABENS                  97  69  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            95  69  91  67 /  20  20  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  68  90  66 /  20  20  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           94  66  89  65 /  20  20  20  20
HATCH                   94  65  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS                94  67  89  63 /  20  20  50  40
OROGRANDE               95  69  91  67 /  20  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 79  55  76  55 /  30  30  40  30
MESCALERO               81  54  78  55 /  30  30  40  30
TIMBERON                80  57  76  56 /  20  30  30  30
WINSTON                 81  57  77  55 /  40  30  40  50
HILLSBORO               91  63  87  59 /  30  20  40  40
SPACEPORT               92  65  87  63 /  20  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            83  54  78  51 /  30  30  50  50
HURLEY                  87  62  82  58 /  20  20  50  50
CLIFF                   91  60  83  58 /  20  20  50  50
MULE CREEK              90  57  81  54 /  20  20  50  50
FAYWOOD                 89  62  84  58 /  30  20  50  50
ANIMAS                  90  64  84  62 /  20  20  50  50
HACHITA                 92  65  86  61 /  20  20  50  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          88  62  82  60 /  30  20  50  50
CLOVERDALE              85  62  79  58 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




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