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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302116
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND WARM WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND AS DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MONSOON
SEASON MOISTURE IS LIKELY OVER AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN UPPER
PATTERN TO BRING THAT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH BOUNTIFUL
SUNSHINE THIS WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH JUST A BIT OF COOLING. A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM
THE NORTH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A FEW MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT
4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MONSOON SEASON LINGERED ON THROUGH MOST OF SEPTEMBER BUT
ONCE IT LEFT...IT LEFT QUICKLY. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THAT SYSTEM IS
NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH FORMING
BEHIND IT. THE MONSOON MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE MODELS
SHOW NO SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO BRINGING THAT MOISTURE IN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA IS NOW
WELL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND WITH IT THE END OF OUR CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SOME TIME TO COME. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. NOT MUCH IF ANY CLOUDS...BUT
FEATURE WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THURSDAY AND THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST...A WEAK CONTINENTAL FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL FURTHER COOL FRIDAY BY A FEW MORE DEGREES. DESPITE "ALL"
THIS COOLING...FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL. NOT MUCH
CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY MODEL DEVIATION APPEARS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF BRINGS
THE REMAINS OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE TROPICAL STORM SIMON UP TO THE
CWA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE GFS KEEPS SIMON WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA AS IT BECOMES EX-TROPICAL...BUT BRINGS MID LATITUDE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT STILL WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z - 02/00Z...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU END OF FCST PD. A WK LEE TROF
IN ERN NMEX WILL ALIGN THE GRADIENT FROM W TO E. THRU THE PD
SKC-SCT 070. WINDS 17Z-02Z: 230-270 12G22KT. WINDS 02Z-17Z:
260-290/10KTS. OCNL LGT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLO 15K FT MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS RETURNED FOLLOWING
YESTERDAY`S STRONG UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH MAINLY WENT NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEEK.TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
RH WILL RUN FROM 18% TO 25% LOWLANDS AND 25% TO 35% ABOVE 7000 FT
TODAY AND ABOUT 5% LOWER OVERALL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  88  62  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           61  86  58  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  86  55  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  83  53  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              45  65  42  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   56  84  55  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  77  49  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  54  86  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               54  86  54  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  88  62  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               58  88  58  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            60  90  60  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  81  60  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  58  90  57  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            63  87  58  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  85  55  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  84  49  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   54  83  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                58  86  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               60  85  57  77  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 49  73  47  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               50  73  48  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                50  71  47  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 47  75  45  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               53  77  49  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               55  85  51  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  75  45  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  51  79  50  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  82  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              40  80  42  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 52  80  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  87  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 54  88  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  88  55  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  84  55  81  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302116
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND WARM WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND AS DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MONSOON
SEASON MOISTURE IS LIKELY OVER AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN UPPER
PATTERN TO BRING THAT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH BOUNTIFUL
SUNSHINE THIS WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH JUST A BIT OF COOLING. A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM
THE NORTH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A FEW MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT
4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MONSOON SEASON LINGERED ON THROUGH MOST OF SEPTEMBER BUT
ONCE IT LEFT...IT LEFT QUICKLY. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THAT SYSTEM IS
NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH FORMING
BEHIND IT. THE MONSOON MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE MODELS
SHOW NO SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO BRINGING THAT MOISTURE IN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA IS NOW
WELL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND WITH IT THE END OF OUR CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SOME TIME TO COME. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. NOT MUCH IF ANY CLOUDS...BUT
FEATURE WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THURSDAY AND THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST...A WEAK CONTINENTAL FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL FURTHER COOL FRIDAY BY A FEW MORE DEGREES. DESPITE "ALL"
THIS COOLING...FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL. NOT MUCH
CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY MODEL DEVIATION APPEARS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF BRINGS
THE REMAINS OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE TROPICAL STORM SIMON UP TO THE
CWA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE GFS KEEPS SIMON WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA AS IT BECOMES EX-TROPICAL...BUT BRINGS MID LATITUDE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT STILL WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z - 02/00Z...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU END OF FCST PD. A WK LEE TROF
IN ERN NMEX WILL ALIGN THE GRADIENT FROM W TO E. THRU THE PD
SKC-SCT 070. WINDS 17Z-02Z: 230-270 12G22KT. WINDS 02Z-17Z:
260-290/10KTS. OCNL LGT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLO 15K FT MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS RETURNED FOLLOWING
YESTERDAY`S STRONG UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH MAINLY WENT NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEEK.TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
RH WILL RUN FROM 18% TO 25% LOWLANDS AND 25% TO 35% ABOVE 7000 FT
TODAY AND ABOUT 5% LOWER OVERALL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  88  62  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           61  86  58  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  86  55  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  83  53  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              45  65  42  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   56  84  55  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  77  49  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  54  86  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               54  86  54  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  88  62  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               58  88  58  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            60  90  60  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  81  60  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  58  90  57  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            63  87  58  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  85  55  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  84  49  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   54  83  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                58  86  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               60  85  57  77  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 49  73  47  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               50  73  48  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                50  71  47  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 47  75  45  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               53  77  49  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               55  85  51  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  75  45  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  51  79  50  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  82  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              40  80  42  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 52  80  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  87  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 54  88  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  88  55  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  84  55  81  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 301025
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
425 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL OCCUR SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN PART
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DEW POINTS AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MOISTURE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DAYS WILL BE SUNNY WITH
LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES CHANGING OVER TO CLEAR NIGHTS AND LIGHT
WINDS IN THE EVENING. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIDE SWINGS
IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT SOME MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO THE REGION BY NEXT
TUESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z- 01/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKY CONDITIONS
MOSTLY SKC-FEW350. WINDS WEST AT 8-15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PART OF A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MIN RH FIELD WILL RUN
FROM 35% TO 45% LOWLANDS AND 10% HIGHER ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS
MONDAY DROPPING SOME 10% TO 20% OVERALL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  66  87  62  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  60  85  59  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              84  55  85  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  56  82  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              64  45  67  41  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  55  83  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             77  48  78  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  84  53  85  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               84  53  85  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  65  87  62  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               88  60  87  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            88  62  89  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              81  62  82  61  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  87  60  89  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            84  62  86  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  57  84  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           83  53  83  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   82  53  82  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                83  57  85  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               83  59  84  58  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 72  49  74  47  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               72  50  74  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                71  50  72  47  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 74  47  76  45  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               76  51  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               83  54  84  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  44  76  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  79  49  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   80  47  82  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              77  43  79  43  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 78  50  81  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  85  56  86  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 85  53  87  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  53  87  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              83  53  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 301025
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
425 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL OCCUR SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN PART
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DEW POINTS AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MOISTURE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DAYS WILL BE SUNNY WITH
LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES CHANGING OVER TO CLEAR NIGHTS AND LIGHT
WINDS IN THE EVENING. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIDE SWINGS
IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT SOME MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO THE REGION BY NEXT
TUESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z- 01/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKY CONDITIONS
MOSTLY SKC-FEW350. WINDS WEST AT 8-15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PART OF A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MIN RH FIELD WILL RUN
FROM 35% TO 45% LOWLANDS AND 10% HIGHER ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS
MONDAY DROPPING SOME 10% TO 20% OVERALL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  66  87  62  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  60  85  59  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              84  55  85  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  56  82  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              64  45  67  41  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  55  83  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             77  48  78  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  84  53  85  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               84  53  85  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  65  87  62  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               88  60  87  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            88  62  89  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              81  62  82  61  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  87  60  89  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            84  62  86  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  57  84  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           83  53  83  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   82  53  82  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                83  57  85  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               83  59  84  58  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 72  49  74  47  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               72  50  74  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                71  50  72  47  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 74  47  76  45  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               76  51  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               83  54  84  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  44  76  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  79  49  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   80  47  82  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              77  43  79  43  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 78  50  81  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  85  56  86  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 85  53  87  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  53  87  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              83  53  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 291910
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
110 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE A SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING LARGER
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS. WESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORNING RAOB
SHOWED RATHER MOIST UNSTABLE SOUNDING WITH A 1300 J/KG CAPE AND A
.9 PERCIPITABEL WATER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S AND 40
KT 400 MB FLOW INDICATE RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP AND EVEN SEVERE CONVECTION EXISTS. MAIN PROBLEM
IS SOUNDING ALDO SHOWED A PRONOUNCED DRY STABLE LAYER ABOVE 600
MB. WITH UPPER LOW TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST MID LEVEL DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK WHILE SHALLOW LIFT MAY OCCUR ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST. WILL THEREFORE
FORECAST CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR TONIGHT AS
EXPECT THE WEAK UPWARD FORCING PLUS SURFACE HEATING WILL INITIATE
SOME UPDRAFTS. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
INDICATING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAINS ALSO LOOK
POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH RAINFALL DURATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL THEN ADVECT SEASONABLY WARM
DRY AIR INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT DRY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING ONLY AROUND 5 DEGREES. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN SEASONABLY WARM DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z - 01/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC PAC CLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTH PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT. GNLY SCT-BKN070 SCT-BKN100-140
SCT-BKN200-250...WIND GNLY 220-250/10G20KTS AND SCT AREAS WNDS VRB30G40KTS
3-5SM TSRAGS BKN040CB OVC080...AFT09Z: 28012KTS SCT-BKN040
SCT-BKN100-140 SCT-KN250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH TAILING
SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FIRE FORECAST ZONES TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PART OF A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE MIN RH FIELD WILL RUN FROM 35% TO 45% LOWLANDS AND 10%
HIGHER ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS MONDAY DROPPING SOME 10% TO 20%
OVERALL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  88  65  87  62 /  30   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           61  85  60  85  59 /  30   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  84  56  85  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              59  81  56  82  54 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  64  45  67  41 /  30   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  83  56  83  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             49  77  50  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  57  84  54  85  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               55  84  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  87  65  87  62 /  30   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               61  88  60  87  58 /  30   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            64  88  61  89  60 /  30   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              63  81  61  82  61 /  30   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  63  87  60  89  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            62  84  61  86  59 /  30   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          60  82  57  84  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           57  83  52  83  50 /  20   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   57  82  53  82  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                62  83  57  85  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               62  83  59  84  58 /  30   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 51  72  48  74  47 /  30   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               51  72  50  74  48 /  30   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                51  71  49  72  47 /  30   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 47  74  47  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  76  51  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               56  83  53  84  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            46  75  45  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  51  79  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   49  80  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              44  77  43  79  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 53  78  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  85  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 57  85  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          58  85  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  83  53  85  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290915
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO COLORADO
TODAY. AS IT DOES...AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGER HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PART OF A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WAS A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY AS RESULT OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE AREA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO
TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES...IT WILL PULL UP ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TAP
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF DEMING...
INCLUDING THE LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO METRO AREAS.

CONVECTIVE INDICES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
BEGINS PUSHING AGAINST THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD BUT MAY
POP UP EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER MOISTURE BAND OF REGULAR STORMS
AND SHOWERS. LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY IMPACTS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT TO VERY SLIGHT PERCENTAGES.
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AND DISSIPATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION AS A
STABLE WEST FLOW FILLS IN BEHIND THE LOW. THE DRY AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST FLOW WILL LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER SWING IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
MORNING LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLISH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TO
THURSDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...COOLING
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND SHIFTING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
NO MOISTURE MOVEMENT BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z - 30/12Z...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 18Z WITH P6SM FEW-SCT050-070 SCT250.
AFT 18Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE VSBY REDUCTION DOWN
TO 2-4SM WITH TSRA BKN020-040 FROM KDMN EASTWARD THROUGH 06Z. WINDS
E TO SE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
ARCHING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS ARIZONA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THAT SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PRODUCING LARGER HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ABOVE 30 PERCENT MONDAY...THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  67  88  65  87 /  40  30   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           84  61  85  60  85 /  30  30   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              86  59  84  56  85 /  40  20   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              86  59  81  56  82 /  40  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              66  46  64  45  67 /  50  30   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   87  57  83  55  83 /  40  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             78  49  77  50  78 /  30   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  86  57  84  54  85 /  30  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               84  55  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      89  66  87  65  87 /  40  30   0   0   0
DELL CITY               88  61  88  60  87 /  30  30   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            90  64  88  61  89 /  30  30   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              81  63  81  61  82 /  40  30   0   0   0
FABENS                  91  63  87  60  89 /  40  30   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            87  62  84  61  86 /  40  30   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          84  60  82  57  84 /  40  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           86  57  83  52  83 /  40  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   83  57  82  53  82 /  40  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                85  62  83  57  85 /  40  20   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               85  62  83  59  84 /  40  30   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 74  51  72  48  74 /  50  30   0   0   0
MESCALERO               74  51  72  50  74 /  50  30   0   0   0
TIMBERON                73  51  71  49  72 /  50  30   0   0   0
WINSTON                 75  47  74  47  76 /  30   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               79  52  76  51  78 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               85  56  83  53  84 /  40  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            76  46  75  45  76 /  30   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  79  51  79  50  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   81  49  80  48  82 /  20   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              78  44  77  43  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 79  53  78  51  81 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  86  57  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 86  57  85  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  58  85  54  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              84  55  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282052
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
252 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL PAY US A VISIT
TODAY...BUT IT MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING ARIZONA IS STILL SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE
EAST OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. TODAY WE JUST DON`T HAVE THE
INSTABILITY TO GET A BUNCH OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WE HAVE SOME
MOISTURE AND WE HAVE SOME SHEER WE JUST WON`T BE ABLE TO GET MUCH
GOING. ON MONDAY THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE IN COLORADO. THIS WILL PUT THE LOW CLOSER TO US
AND IN ADDITION IT LOOKS LIKE A SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL BE WORKING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEER SO IF WE HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO GET SOME STORMS POPPED UP THAT WILL APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. NOW
FOR SURE THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
THAT IF WE CAN GET THE STORMS GOING THEY WILL BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. BY MONDAY EVENING THE DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE MAKING
A QUICK PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL QUICKLY END OUR
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY WE WILL SEE THE WESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN WHICH WILL
SPELL THE END FOR THE MONSOON SEASON. THOUGH THE MONSOON SEASON
WILL BE WRAPPED UP WE WILL NOT HAVE VERY FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL RUN 3 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN FLIRT WITH THE 90
DEGREE MARK MOST DAYS. THE GFS IS STILL INDICATING THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT IT IS
ALSO STILL SHOWING THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT SO LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EVEN IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z - 30/00Z...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM FEW-SCT050-070
SCT-BKN200-250. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CAUSE 1-3SM TSRA BKN020-040 FROM THE BOOTHEEL INTO THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT...THEN SCATTERED STORMS WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY. WINDS E TO SE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
ARCING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS ARIZONA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THAT SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GILA REGION TONIGHT...WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY
WITH THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 30 PERCENT MONDAY...THEN FALLING
BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  88  66  88  64 /  20  40  30   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  86  61  85  60 /  20  30  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              60  85  58  84  56 /  30  40  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              60  85  59  80  55 /  20  40  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  65  44  64  45 /  20  50  30   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   60  85  57  83  56 /  30  40  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             53  78  51  77  51 /  30  30   0   0   0
DEMING                  59  86  56  85  54 /  30  40  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               58  84  56  84  55 /  30  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  89  65  87  63 /  20  40  30   0   0
DELL CITY               58  89  60  87  61 /  20  30  30   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            62  92  64  88  62 /  20  30  30   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  82  62  80  60 /  20  40  30   0   0
FABENS                  60  91  62  87  60 /  20  40  30   0   0
SANTA TERESA            61  87  61  85  60 /  20  40  30   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          60  83  59  81  57 /  30  40  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           56  84  56  82  52 /  30  40  20   0   0
HATCH                   57  82  56  81  53 /  30  40  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                60  85  60  83  58 /  30  40  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               62  85  61  82  59 /  20  40  30   0   0
MAYHILL                 50  73  50  71  49 /  20  50  30   0   0
MESCALERO               51  74  50  72  50 /  20  50  30   0   0
TIMBERON                49  72  50  70  48 /  20  50  30   0   0
WINSTON                 48  76  47  75  47 /  30  30  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               53  77  52  76  51 /  30  30  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               56  84  56  84  54 /  30  40  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            51  76  46  75  46 /  40  30   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  79  52  80  51 /  30  30  10   0   0
CLIFF                   54  82  49  81  49 /  30  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              47  79  44  78  44 /  30  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 54  79  53  79  52 /  30  30  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  58  86  58  86  57 /  30  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 58  85  56  85  54 /  30  30  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  86  56  84  54 /  30  30  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              56  84  53  84  53 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/PARK






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282052
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
252 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL PAY US A VISIT
TODAY...BUT IT MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING ARIZONA IS STILL SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE
EAST OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. TODAY WE JUST DON`T HAVE THE
INSTABILITY TO GET A BUNCH OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WE HAVE SOME
MOISTURE AND WE HAVE SOME SHEER WE JUST WON`T BE ABLE TO GET MUCH
GOING. ON MONDAY THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE IN COLORADO. THIS WILL PUT THE LOW CLOSER TO US
AND IN ADDITION IT LOOKS LIKE A SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL BE WORKING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEER SO IF WE HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO GET SOME STORMS POPPED UP THAT WILL APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. NOW
FOR SURE THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
THAT IF WE CAN GET THE STORMS GOING THEY WILL BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. BY MONDAY EVENING THE DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE MAKING
A QUICK PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL QUICKLY END OUR
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY WE WILL SEE THE WESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN WHICH WILL
SPELL THE END FOR THE MONSOON SEASON. THOUGH THE MONSOON SEASON
WILL BE WRAPPED UP WE WILL NOT HAVE VERY FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL RUN 3 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN FLIRT WITH THE 90
DEGREE MARK MOST DAYS. THE GFS IS STILL INDICATING THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT IT IS
ALSO STILL SHOWING THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT SO LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EVEN IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z - 30/00Z...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM FEW-SCT050-070
SCT-BKN200-250. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CAUSE 1-3SM TSRA BKN020-040 FROM THE BOOTHEEL INTO THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT...THEN SCATTERED STORMS WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY. WINDS E TO SE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
ARCING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS ARIZONA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THAT SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GILA REGION TONIGHT...WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY
WITH THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 30 PERCENT MONDAY...THEN FALLING
BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  88  66  88  64 /  20  40  30   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  86  61  85  60 /  20  30  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              60  85  58  84  56 /  30  40  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              60  85  59  80  55 /  20  40  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  65  44  64  45 /  20  50  30   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   60  85  57  83  56 /  30  40  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             53  78  51  77  51 /  30  30   0   0   0
DEMING                  59  86  56  85  54 /  30  40  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               58  84  56  84  55 /  30  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  89  65  87  63 /  20  40  30   0   0
DELL CITY               58  89  60  87  61 /  20  30  30   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            62  92  64  88  62 /  20  30  30   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  82  62  80  60 /  20  40  30   0   0
FABENS                  60  91  62  87  60 /  20  40  30   0   0
SANTA TERESA            61  87  61  85  60 /  20  40  30   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          60  83  59  81  57 /  30  40  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           56  84  56  82  52 /  30  40  20   0   0
HATCH                   57  82  56  81  53 /  30  40  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                60  85  60  83  58 /  30  40  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               62  85  61  82  59 /  20  40  30   0   0
MAYHILL                 50  73  50  71  49 /  20  50  30   0   0
MESCALERO               51  74  50  72  50 /  20  50  30   0   0
TIMBERON                49  72  50  70  48 /  20  50  30   0   0
WINSTON                 48  76  47  75  47 /  30  30  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               53  77  52  76  51 /  30  30  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               56  84  56  84  54 /  30  40  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            51  76  46  75  46 /  40  30   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  79  52  80  51 /  30  30  10   0   0
CLIFF                   54  82  49  81  49 /  30  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              47  79  44  78  44 /  30  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 54  79  53  79  52 /  30  30  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  58  86  58  86  57 /  30  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 58  85  56  85  54 /  30  30  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  86  56  84  54 /  30  30  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              56  84  53  84  53 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/PARK







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280942
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
342 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE TODAY
AND PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. A PLUME OF MOISTURE PULLED UP
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. LARGER HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBE FROM THESE TYPE OF STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AND SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS PULLED UP A
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA THAT HAS GENERATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT PLUME
WILL NOW BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AND AGAIN
TOMORROW...HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE STATE.

SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER THE GILA REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY WITHIN THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. STORM COVERAGE CONTINUE TO BE MORE
FREQUENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION WITH LESSER COVERAGE
IN THE LOWLANDS AND SAC MOUNTAINS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE HALF AN INCH TO TWO INCH RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN THE LOWLANDS. CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF DEMING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MARGINAL
BUT WILL STILL SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS AND
REDUCED SEVERE THREAT.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW ENTERING COLORADO AND A WEST FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS PARTLY DRIVEN BY THE DRIER AIR
OF THE WEST FLOW COLLIDING WITH THE MOIST AIR THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA. AN ANALYSIS OF 700 MB THETA INDICATES A
STRONG GRADIENT OF THETA ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND THE TIP OF TEXAS. STRONG GRADIENT OF THETA VALUES IS A FAVORED
GROWTH AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BOTH THE LAS
CRUCES AND EL PASO METRO AREAS AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST MAY BE
IMPACTED BY MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEST FLOW WILL PUSH THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSORMS ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS A DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW
TAKES ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS WITH COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE WEST WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z - 29/12Z...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-
BKN200-250. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING 1-3SM
TSRA BKN020-040 FROM THE BOOTHEEL INTO THE GILA REGION. ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
WINDS E TO SE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WEST OF KDMN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING
OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
BOOTHEEL INTO THE GILA REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT AREAS
FARTHER EAST WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TONIGHT. AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE
TODAY INTO MONDAY COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN FALLING BACK INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  68  87  66  88 /  20  20  40  30   0
SIERRA BLANCA           82  59  85  61  85 /  10  20  30  30   0
LAS CRUCES              82  62  84  58  84 /  20  30  40  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  62  84  59  80 /  20  20  40  30   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  48  64  44  64 /  30  40  50  30   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  62  84  57  83 /  30  30  40  10   0
SILVER CITY             75  55  77  51  77 /  40  30  30   0   0
DEMING                  82  61  85  56  85 /  30  30  40  10   0
LORDSBURG               82  60  83  56  84 /  30  30  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      85  66  88  65  87 /  20  20  40  30   0
DELL CITY               83  60  88  60  87 /  10  20  30  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            87  64  91  64  88 /  20  20  30  30   0
LOMA LINDA              79  63  81  62  80 /  20  20  40  30   0
FABENS                  87  62  90  62  87 /  20  20  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            84  63  86  61  85 /  20  20  40  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  62  82  59  81 /  20  30  40  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           84  58  83  56  82 /  20  30  40  20   0
HATCH                   80  59  81  56  81 /  20  30  40  10   0
COLUMBUS                82  62  84  60  83 /  20  30  40  20   0
OROGRANDE               83  64  84  61  82 /  20  20  40  30   0
MAYHILL                 71  52  72  50  71 /  30  40  50  30   0
MESCALERO               73  53  73  50  72 /  30  40  50  30   0
TIMBERON                72  51  71  50  70 /  30  40  50  30   0
WINSTON                 72  50  75  47  75 /  60  30  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               75  55  76  52  76 /  40  30  30  10   0
SPACEPORT               82  58  83  56  84 /  30  30  40  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            73  53  75  46  75 /  60  40  30   0   0
HURLEY                  77  57  78  52  80 /  40  30  30  10   0
CLIFF                   79  56  81  49  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              77  49  78  44  78 /  40  30  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 75  56  78  53  79 /  40  30  30  10   0
ANIMAS                  83  60  85  58  86 /  30  30  20   0   0
HACHITA                 83  60  84  56  85 /  30  30  30  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  58  85  56  84 /  30  30  30  10   0
CLOVERDALE              80  58  83  53  84 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280942
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
342 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE TODAY
AND PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. A PLUME OF MOISTURE PULLED UP
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. LARGER HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBE FROM THESE TYPE OF STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AND SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS PULLED UP A
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA THAT HAS GENERATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT PLUME
WILL NOW BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AND AGAIN
TOMORROW...HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE STATE.

SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER THE GILA REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY WITHIN THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. STORM COVERAGE CONTINUE TO BE MORE
FREQUENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION WITH LESSER COVERAGE
IN THE LOWLANDS AND SAC MOUNTAINS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE HALF AN INCH TO TWO INCH RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN THE LOWLANDS. CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF DEMING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MARGINAL
BUT WILL STILL SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS AND
REDUCED SEVERE THREAT.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW ENTERING COLORADO AND A WEST FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS PARTLY DRIVEN BY THE DRIER AIR
OF THE WEST FLOW COLLIDING WITH THE MOIST AIR THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA. AN ANALYSIS OF 700 MB THETA INDICATES A
STRONG GRADIENT OF THETA ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND THE TIP OF TEXAS. STRONG GRADIENT OF THETA VALUES IS A FAVORED
GROWTH AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BOTH THE LAS
CRUCES AND EL PASO METRO AREAS AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST MAY BE
IMPACTED BY MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEST FLOW WILL PUSH THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSORMS ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS A DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW
TAKES ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS WITH COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE WEST WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z - 29/12Z...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-
BKN200-250. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING 1-3SM
TSRA BKN020-040 FROM THE BOOTHEEL INTO THE GILA REGION. ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
WINDS E TO SE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WEST OF KDMN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING
OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
BOOTHEEL INTO THE GILA REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT AREAS
FARTHER EAST WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TONIGHT. AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE
TODAY INTO MONDAY COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN FALLING BACK INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  68  87  66  88 /  20  20  40  30   0
SIERRA BLANCA           82  59  85  61  85 /  10  20  30  30   0
LAS CRUCES              82  62  84  58  84 /  20  30  40  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  62  84  59  80 /  20  20  40  30   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  48  64  44  64 /  30  40  50  30   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  62  84  57  83 /  30  30  40  10   0
SILVER CITY             75  55  77  51  77 /  40  30  30   0   0
DEMING                  82  61  85  56  85 /  30  30  40  10   0
LORDSBURG               82  60  83  56  84 /  30  30  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      85  66  88  65  87 /  20  20  40  30   0
DELL CITY               83  60  88  60  87 /  10  20  30  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            87  64  91  64  88 /  20  20  30  30   0
LOMA LINDA              79  63  81  62  80 /  20  20  40  30   0
FABENS                  87  62  90  62  87 /  20  20  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            84  63  86  61  85 /  20  20  40  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  62  82  59  81 /  20  30  40  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           84  58  83  56  82 /  20  30  40  20   0
HATCH                   80  59  81  56  81 /  20  30  40  10   0
COLUMBUS                82  62  84  60  83 /  20  30  40  20   0
OROGRANDE               83  64  84  61  82 /  20  20  40  30   0
MAYHILL                 71  52  72  50  71 /  30  40  50  30   0
MESCALERO               73  53  73  50  72 /  30  40  50  30   0
TIMBERON                72  51  71  50  70 /  30  40  50  30   0
WINSTON                 72  50  75  47  75 /  60  30  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               75  55  76  52  76 /  40  30  30  10   0
SPACEPORT               82  58  83  56  84 /  30  30  40  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            73  53  75  46  75 /  60  40  30   0   0
HURLEY                  77  57  78  52  80 /  40  30  30  10   0
CLIFF                   79  56  81  49  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              77  49  78  44  78 /  40  30  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 75  56  78  53  79 /  40  30  30  10   0
ANIMAS                  83  60  85  58  86 /  30  30  20   0   0
HACHITA                 83  60  84  56  85 /  30  30  30  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  58  85  56  84 /  30  30  30  10   0
CLOVERDALE              80  58  83  53  84 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04







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