Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221127
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
427 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN THE 40`S
FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR CHRISTMAS WE
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL SEE ONE MORE WARM DAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE AREA. CURRENTLY WE SIT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN IS GIVING
US A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. USUALLY THIS PATTERN IS A QUIET
ONE...BUT FOR US LATER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RUN
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL RUN ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THAT MEANS MOST
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40`S ON BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR...THE FRONT WILL GIVE
US SOME STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW I THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT. FINALLY...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GIVE THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

LATE ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL HELP OUR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY. LATE ON CHRISTMAS
DAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DASH ACROSS NORTHER NEW MEXICO WHICH
WILL HELP GIVE US SOME BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS. THE GFS GIVE US A ZONAL FLOW...WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS A
TROUGH INTO NEW MEXICO. FOR NOW BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL GIVE US DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z
LIKE YESTERDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS OF BKN250 OFF AND
ON THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM 27010KT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS AND SWING
THEM AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 34018G28KT WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS ON
THE EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. ALSO LATER TONIGHT WE MAY SEE
SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH BREEZY WINDS...BUT THEN TONIGHT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE AND SWING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVER NIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION WE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY WE
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. NEXT WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  41  50  25  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           63  39  47  22  49 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              64  38  49  22  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              61  36  46  19  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              47  23  30  10  34 /   0  20  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  38  46  22  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  34  44  21  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  36  49  20  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               62  33  50  19  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  43  49  27  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  37  49  17  51 /   0  10  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  42  51  23  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              60  39  45  24  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
FABENS                  67  39  50  22  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  38  49  22  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  41  48  26  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  32  49  16  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  37  49  21  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  41  50  23  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               62  38  47  22  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  29  38  14  41 /   0  20  30   0   0
MESCALERO               54  27  38  13  40 /   0  20  20   0   0
TIMBERON                54  29  38  13  39 /   0  20  20   0   0
WINSTON                 57  32  41  17  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  36  45  21  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  33  48  18  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  32  42  17  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  35  45  19  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   63  31  49  16  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              60  27  47  12  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  36  45  22  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  65  36  52  21  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 64  33  51  17  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  35  51  17  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              64  36  51  20  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221127
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
427 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN THE 40`S
FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR CHRISTMAS WE
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL SEE ONE MORE WARM DAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE AREA. CURRENTLY WE SIT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN IS GIVING
US A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. USUALLY THIS PATTERN IS A QUIET
ONE...BUT FOR US LATER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RUN
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL RUN ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THAT MEANS MOST
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40`S ON BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR...THE FRONT WILL GIVE
US SOME STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW I THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT. FINALLY...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GIVE THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

LATE ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL HELP OUR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY. LATE ON CHRISTMAS
DAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DASH ACROSS NORTHER NEW MEXICO WHICH
WILL HELP GIVE US SOME BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS. THE GFS GIVE US A ZONAL FLOW...WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS A
TROUGH INTO NEW MEXICO. FOR NOW BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL GIVE US DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z
LIKE YESTERDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS OF BKN250 OFF AND
ON THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM 27010KT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS AND SWING
THEM AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 34018G28KT WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS ON
THE EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. ALSO LATER TONIGHT WE MAY SEE
SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH BREEZY WINDS...BUT THEN TONIGHT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE AND SWING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVER NIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION WE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY WE
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. NEXT WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  41  50  25  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           63  39  47  22  49 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              64  38  49  22  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              61  36  46  19  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              47  23  30  10  34 /   0  20  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  38  46  22  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  34  44  21  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  36  49  20  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               62  33  50  19  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  43  49  27  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  37  49  17  51 /   0  10  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  42  51  23  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              60  39  45  24  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
FABENS                  67  39  50  22  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  38  49  22  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  41  48  26  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  32  49  16  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  37  49  21  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  41  50  23  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               62  38  47  22  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  29  38  14  41 /   0  20  30   0   0
MESCALERO               54  27  38  13  40 /   0  20  20   0   0
TIMBERON                54  29  38  13  39 /   0  20  20   0   0
WINSTON                 57  32  41  17  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  36  45  21  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  33  48  18  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  32  42  17  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  35  45  19  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   63  31  49  16  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              60  27  47  12  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  36  45  22  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  65  36  52  21  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 64  33  51  17  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  35  51  17  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              64  36  51  20  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212102
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
202 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY BEFORE A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE BORDERLAND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY AROUND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT CAUSES
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE DRY MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL INDUCE DRY
SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS ON
MONDAY WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST GENERATES LOW LEVEL
WESTERLIES. AS A RESULT EXPECT DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAX PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CWA. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. DEEP NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE AREA. CONTINENTAL FLOW
TRAJECTORIES PRECLUDE ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT STRONG DYNAMICS
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL PVA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

BY THURSDAY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST WITH ANOTHER LEE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE EAST SO EXPECT RESULTANT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
TO ADVECT WARMER DRY AIR MASS OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR CHRISTMAS
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THOUGH
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
FOR SUN BOWL SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS CONTINUED DRY
WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z- 23/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250 WITH W TO NW WINDS 10-20G30KTS THRU 02Z
AND AFT 18Z...REMAINING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ON EASTERN MTN SLOPES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP AREA IN A ROLLER COASTER
OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A LITTLE MORE FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE OFF AND ON AGAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S BUT
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 41  65  38  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           38  62  36  45  26 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAS CRUCES              38  63  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              37  60  33  44  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  46  20  28  14 /   0   0  20  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  62  35  44  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             37  58  31  42  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  36  64  33  47  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  61  30  48  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      43  65  40  47  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               36  65  34  47  21 /   0   0  10  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            39  67  39  49  27 /   0   0   0  10   0
LOMA LINDA              41  59  36  43  28 /   0   0   0  10   0
FABENS                  37  66  36  48  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  64  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  63  38  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           31  63  29  47  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  65  34  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                40  64  38  48  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  61  35  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  55  26  36  18 /   0   0  20  30   0
MESCALERO               33  53  24  36  17 /   0   0  20  20   0
TIMBERON                35  53  26  36  17 /   0   0  20  20   0
WINSTON                 35  56  29  39  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               39  61  33  43  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               34  64  30  46  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            33  57  29  40  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  60  32  43  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   33  62  28  47  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              29  59  24  45  16 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 38  60  33  43  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  38  64  33  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 34  63  30  49  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          34  66  32  49  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              37  63  33  49  24 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212102
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
202 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY BEFORE A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE BORDERLAND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY AROUND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT CAUSES
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE DRY MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL INDUCE DRY
SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS ON
MONDAY WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST GENERATES LOW LEVEL
WESTERLIES. AS A RESULT EXPECT DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAX PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CWA. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. DEEP NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE AREA. CONTINENTAL FLOW
TRAJECTORIES PRECLUDE ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT STRONG DYNAMICS
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL PVA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

BY THURSDAY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST WITH ANOTHER LEE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE EAST SO EXPECT RESULTANT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
TO ADVECT WARMER DRY AIR MASS OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR CHRISTMAS
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THOUGH
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
FOR SUN BOWL SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS CONTINUED DRY
WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z- 23/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250 WITH W TO NW WINDS 10-20G30KTS THRU 02Z
AND AFT 18Z...REMAINING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ON EASTERN MTN SLOPES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP AREA IN A ROLLER COASTER
OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A LITTLE MORE FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE OFF AND ON AGAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S BUT
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 41  65  38  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           38  62  36  45  26 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAS CRUCES              38  63  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              37  60  33  44  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  46  20  28  14 /   0   0  20  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  62  35  44  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             37  58  31  42  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  36  64  33  47  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  61  30  48  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      43  65  40  47  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               36  65  34  47  21 /   0   0  10  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            39  67  39  49  27 /   0   0   0  10   0
LOMA LINDA              41  59  36  43  28 /   0   0   0  10   0
FABENS                  37  66  36  48  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  64  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  63  38  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           31  63  29  47  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  65  34  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                40  64  38  48  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  61  35  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  55  26  36  18 /   0   0  20  30   0
MESCALERO               33  53  24  36  17 /   0   0  20  20   0
TIMBERON                35  53  26  36  17 /   0   0  20  20   0
WINSTON                 35  56  29  39  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               39  61  33  43  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               34  64  30  46  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            33  57  29  40  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  60  32  43  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   33  62  28  47  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              29  59  24  45  16 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 38  60  33  43  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  38  64  33  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 34  63  30  49  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          34  66  32  49  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              37  63  33  49  24 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211147
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
447 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY...BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY IS LOOKING NICE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WE WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THIS WILL GIVE US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THOUGH A PRETTY
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE JUST ENOUGH LIFT IN THE SACRAMENT
MOUNTAINS TO POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. I`M NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO (IF ANY) OF SNOW ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITION FROM A
NORTHERLY FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL BEGIN ANOTHER
WARMING TREND THOUGH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
AT OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO GIVE US BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE WEST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
AGAIN PUT US UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP US MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250
OFF AND ON TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 26008KT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL HELP GIVE US SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO AREA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE
IN THE 30`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 40`S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY MID WEEK WE WILL SEE MIN RH`S IN THE
20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  39  65  38  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           58  36  62  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  36  63  35  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  35  60  33  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  32  46  20  32 /   0   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  37  62  35  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             54  35  58  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  59  34  64  33  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  34  61  30  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  41  65  40  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               60  34  65  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            63  37  67  39  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              55  39  59  36  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  61  35  66  36  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            59  36  64  35  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  39  63  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  29  63  29  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  34  65  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                59  38  64  38  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               58  36  61  35  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 50  37  55  26  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               48  31  53  24  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                49  33  53  26  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 52  33  56  29  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  37  61  33  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               58  32  64  30  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            53  31  57  29  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  34  60  32  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   58  31  62  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              56  27  59  24  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 55  36  60  33  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  60  36  64  33  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 59  32  63  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  32  66  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              60  35  63  33  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211147
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
447 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY...BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY IS LOOKING NICE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WE WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THIS WILL GIVE US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THOUGH A PRETTY
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE JUST ENOUGH LIFT IN THE SACRAMENT
MOUNTAINS TO POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. I`M NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO (IF ANY) OF SNOW ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITION FROM A
NORTHERLY FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL BEGIN ANOTHER
WARMING TREND THOUGH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
AT OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO GIVE US BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE WEST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
AGAIN PUT US UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP US MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250
OFF AND ON TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 26008KT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL HELP GIVE US SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO AREA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE
IN THE 30`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 40`S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY MID WEEK WE WILL SEE MIN RH`S IN THE
20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  39  65  38  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           58  36  62  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  36  63  35  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  35  60  33  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  32  46  20  32 /   0   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  37  62  35  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             54  35  58  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  59  34  64  33  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  34  61  30  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  41  65  40  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               60  34  65  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            63  37  67  39  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              55  39  59  36  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  61  35  66  36  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            59  36  64  35  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  39  63  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  29  63  29  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  34  65  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                59  38  64  38  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               58  36  61  35  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 50  37  55  26  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               48  31  53  24  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                49  33  53  26  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 52  33  56  29  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  37  61  33  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               58  32  64  30  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            53  31  57  29  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  34  60  32  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   58  31  62  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              56  27  59  24  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 55  36  60  33  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  60  36  64  33  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 59  32  63  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  32  66  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              60  35  63  33  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202204
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
304 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TAKE
ANOTHER DIVE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARMER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWING PHASED PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT BUILDING RAPIDLY OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
FOLLOWING THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT US OUR RECENT PERIOD OF
ACTIVE WEATHER...THE PAIR MARK THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE RIDGE. THIS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG JET STREAM OF SUB TROPICAL ORIGIN...WITH MAXIMUM SPEEDS
AT 140-150 KTS BASED ON SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DERIVED REPORTS.
JET MAX MOVING ATOP BUILDING RIDGE...WILL HELP ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

AS A CONSEQUENCE...MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS FALLING ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED MID
EVENING MONDAY. GIVEN IMPROVING CONSENSUS AMONG GFS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND NUDGE IT A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST...HAVE ALSO OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY FOR THE SACS. GUIDANCE HAS AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING
ONLY THE HIGH 30S SATURDAY FOR RUIDOSO...SO ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL
AS LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES BELOW 540 DECAMETERS
OVER THE SACS AT THAT TIME...SUGGEST ANY FALLING SNOW WILL REACH
SURROUNDING VALLEY FLOORS.

WAVE QUICKLY MOVES OUT LATER TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGHS
SHOULD END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND WE LOOK AT A BREEZY
AFTERNOON WTIH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. AT THAT TIME MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE...THAT FEATURE APPEARS WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ONE DUE IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250 WITH W TO NW WINDS UNDER 12KTS THRU PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR UPCOMING WEEK. A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING BY MONDAY. BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT
DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN REBOUND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 33  60  38  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           32  58  35  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              30  59  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              29  57  34  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              23  42  31  46  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   30  57  36  62  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             30  54  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  28  59  33  64  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  57  33  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      36  59  40  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               28  60  33  65  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            32  63  36  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  55  38  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  30  61  34  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  59  35  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          34  58  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           23  58  28  63  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   28  59  33  65  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                32  59  37  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               31  58  35  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  50  36  55  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  48  30  53  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                26  49  32  53  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 27  52  32  56  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               31  56  36  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               25  58  31  64  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            27  53  30  57  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  29  55  33  60  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  58  30  62  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  56  26  59  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 31  55  35  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  30  60  35  64  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 26  59  31  63  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          26  61  31  66  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              29  60  34  63  31 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202204
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
304 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TAKE
ANOTHER DIVE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARMER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWING PHASED PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT BUILDING RAPIDLY OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
FOLLOWING THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT US OUR RECENT PERIOD OF
ACTIVE WEATHER...THE PAIR MARK THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE RIDGE. THIS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG JET STREAM OF SUB TROPICAL ORIGIN...WITH MAXIMUM SPEEDS
AT 140-150 KTS BASED ON SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DERIVED REPORTS.
JET MAX MOVING ATOP BUILDING RIDGE...WILL HELP ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

AS A CONSEQUENCE...MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS FALLING ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED MID
EVENING MONDAY. GIVEN IMPROVING CONSENSUS AMONG GFS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND NUDGE IT A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST...HAVE ALSO OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY FOR THE SACS. GUIDANCE HAS AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING
ONLY THE HIGH 30S SATURDAY FOR RUIDOSO...SO ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL
AS LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES BELOW 540 DECAMETERS
OVER THE SACS AT THAT TIME...SUGGEST ANY FALLING SNOW WILL REACH
SURROUNDING VALLEY FLOORS.

WAVE QUICKLY MOVES OUT LATER TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGHS
SHOULD END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND WE LOOK AT A BREEZY
AFTERNOON WTIH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. AT THAT TIME MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE...THAT FEATURE APPEARS WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ONE DUE IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250 WITH W TO NW WINDS UNDER 12KTS THRU PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR UPCOMING WEEK. A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING BY MONDAY. BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT
DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN REBOUND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 33  60  38  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           32  58  35  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              30  59  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              29  57  34  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              23  42  31  46  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   30  57  36  62  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             30  54  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  28  59  33  64  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  57  33  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      36  59  40  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               28  60  33  65  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            32  63  36  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  55  38  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  30  61  34  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  59  35  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          34  58  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           23  58  28  63  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   28  59  33  65  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                32  59  37  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               31  58  35  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  50  36  55  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  48  30  53  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                26  49  32  53  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 27  52  32  56  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               31  56  36  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               25  58  31  64  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            27  53  30  57  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  29  55  33  60  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  58  30  62  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  56  26  59  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 31  55  35  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  30  60  35  64  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 26  59  31  63  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          26  61  31  66  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              29  60  34  63  31 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201216
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
516 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY COOLER
AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND DROP OUR TEMPERATURES BACK A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS
DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. THEN
FRIDAY WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN ACTIVE SEVERAL DAYS WE HAVE SETTLED INTO A MORE QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT NOT AS QUIET AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WOULD
HAVE THOUGHT. FOR TODAY A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NEXT TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO ONLY
SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS IS WHAT WE CAN EXPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL GIVE US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND EACH DAY...SO
THAT BY MONDAY WE WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON
TUESDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR EAST...BUT THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION RIGHT TO OUR EASTERN BORDER. FOR NOW THE
FORECAST WILL STAY DRY...BUT IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE THE
MODELS SLIDE THE TROUGH EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
MEAN AT LEAST THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MIGHT SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES...SO WE WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A DRY AND WARM ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW MANY TIMES WE ALSO
SEE BREEZY WINDS AND THIS IS THE CASE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE FORECAST AFTER CHRISTMAS THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL WORKING
ON COMING TO AN AGREEMENT THE GFS KEEPS THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND
QUICKLY MOVES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST...WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DROPS A STRONGER TROUGH
INTO NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD GIVE US A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND THAT IS WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE TO SCT-BKN250 BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM 24008KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BUT IT WILL ONLY GIVE US AN INCREASE IN OUR HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT DROPS US A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAYS LOOKS DRY...BUT BREEZY TO WINDY AND THEN
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY NEXT FRIDAY. MIN RH`S FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE 30`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
40`S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE
20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  34  60  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  33  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              54  31  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  30  57  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  24  42  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  31  57  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             46  31  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  53  29  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  30  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  37  59  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  29  60  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            57  33  63  36  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  35  55  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  56  31  61  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            54  30  59  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  35  58  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  24  58  28  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   53  29  59  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  33  59  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  32  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 44  30  50  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  26  48  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  27  49  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 45  28  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  32  56  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               52  26  58  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            46  28  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  48  30  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   52  26  58  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              48  22  56  26  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  32  55  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  55  31  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 54  27  59  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          55  27  61  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  30  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201216
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
516 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY COOLER
AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND DROP OUR TEMPERATURES BACK A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS
DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. THEN
FRIDAY WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN ACTIVE SEVERAL DAYS WE HAVE SETTLED INTO A MORE QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT NOT AS QUIET AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WOULD
HAVE THOUGHT. FOR TODAY A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NEXT TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO ONLY
SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS IS WHAT WE CAN EXPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL GIVE US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND EACH DAY...SO
THAT BY MONDAY WE WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON
TUESDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR EAST...BUT THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION RIGHT TO OUR EASTERN BORDER. FOR NOW THE
FORECAST WILL STAY DRY...BUT IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE THE
MODELS SLIDE THE TROUGH EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
MEAN AT LEAST THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MIGHT SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES...SO WE WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A DRY AND WARM ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW MANY TIMES WE ALSO
SEE BREEZY WINDS AND THIS IS THE CASE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE FORECAST AFTER CHRISTMAS THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL WORKING
ON COMING TO AN AGREEMENT THE GFS KEEPS THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND
QUICKLY MOVES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST...WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DROPS A STRONGER TROUGH
INTO NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD GIVE US A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND THAT IS WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE TO SCT-BKN250 BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM 24008KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BUT IT WILL ONLY GIVE US AN INCREASE IN OUR HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT DROPS US A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAYS LOOKS DRY...BUT BREEZY TO WINDY AND THEN
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY NEXT FRIDAY. MIN RH`S FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE 30`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
40`S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE
20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  34  60  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  33  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              54  31  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  30  57  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  24  42  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  31  57  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             46  31  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  53  29  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  30  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  37  59  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  29  60  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            57  33  63  36  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  35  55  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  56  31  61  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            54  30  59  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  35  58  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  24  58  28  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   53  29  59  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  33  59  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  32  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 44  30  50  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  26  48  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  27  49  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 45  28  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  32  56  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               52  26  58  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            46  28  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  48  30  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   52  26  58  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              48  22  56  26  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  32  55  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  55  31  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 54  27  59  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          55  27  61  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  30  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP BY
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY ON CHRISTMAS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE SUN BOWL NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A FOGGY START THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH NO
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND MID WEST TROUGH WITH
SUBSIDING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INFLOW OF WARMER DRY AIR MASS WHICH COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH ADVECTION OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL. AIR MASS WILL ALSO LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN OR SNOW SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES CHRISTMAS/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MAJOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARM...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS A SHALLOWER WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AND
LESS COOLING FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LATEST SUPER BLEND TAKES A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION INDICATING BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MODERATE COOLING LATER PERIODS ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. SUN BOWL SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT040-050 THRU 03Z...THEN P6SM SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 08KTS THROUGH PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING DOWN SOME COOLER AIR ON OCCASION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT A
LITTLE COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY BUT POSSIBLY COME WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 30  55  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           30  55  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              27  54  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              26  52  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  34  23  42  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   27  50  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  46  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  52  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  53  36  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  56  28  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            29  57  32  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  48  34  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  56  30  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            26  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          30  53  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           21  52  23  58  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                28  53  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               27  52  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  44  29  50  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               20  42  25  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  42  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 23  45  27  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               27  48  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               23  52  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  46  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  48  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   21  52  25  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              18  48  21  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 28  47  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  25  55  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 22  54  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          23  55  26  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              26  54  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP BY
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY ON CHRISTMAS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE SUN BOWL NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A FOGGY START THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH NO
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND MID WEST TROUGH WITH
SUBSIDING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INFLOW OF WARMER DRY AIR MASS WHICH COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH ADVECTION OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL. AIR MASS WILL ALSO LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN OR SNOW SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES CHRISTMAS/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MAJOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARM...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS A SHALLOWER WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AND
LESS COOLING FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LATEST SUPER BLEND TAKES A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION INDICATING BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MODERATE COOLING LATER PERIODS ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. SUN BOWL SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT040-050 THRU 03Z...THEN P6SM SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 08KTS THROUGH PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING DOWN SOME COOLER AIR ON OCCASION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT A
LITTLE COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY BUT POSSIBLY COME WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 30  55  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           30  55  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              27  54  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              26  52  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  34  23  42  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   27  50  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  46  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  52  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  53  36  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  56  28  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            29  57  32  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  48  34  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  56  30  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            26  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          30  53  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           21  52  23  58  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                28  53  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               27  52  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  44  29  50  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               20  42  25  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  42  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 23  45  27  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               27  48  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               23  52  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  46  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  48  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   21  52  25  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              18  48  21  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 28  47  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  25  55  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 22  54  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          23  55  26  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              26  54  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities