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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031026
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
426 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
BORDERLAND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS SO RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR
LOCALIZED  FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND
LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE...CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY A TYPICAL SURFACE
MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL EXIST WITH DESERT HEAT LOW OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA COMBINING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND NORTH TO
INDUCE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE
50S MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER
RISES TO AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANWHILE
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT LOW LEVEL HEATING AND MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT MUCAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE INHIBITION. OVERALL SCENARIO SHOULD
THEREFORE GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOST AREAS. FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE LIFTING MECHANISMS BUT EXPECT HEATING AND
UPSLOPE WILL INITIATE SOME STORMS WITH SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALLOWING FOR FURTHER UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MAY FURTHER ENHANCE ACTIVITY. GIVEN
THE LIGHT STORM MOTION VECTORS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW MOVING OR
EVEN BACK BUILDING SO HEAVY RAINS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT.

BY SUNDAY SURFACE LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LEE CYCLONE WITH TRAILING TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD
THEREFORE BECOME MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REGIONAL
TRAJECTORIES INDICATE THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SO AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND EVEN LOWER
60S WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4
INCHES. AGAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE WEAK BUT SURFACE
HEATING...UPSLOPE FLOW...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAKENING FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CWA TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING AND SUSTAINING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INFLOW. THUS THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO
LATER PERIODS WITH MODELS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY WHILE AIR MASS REMAINS
AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED
IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL. WINDS GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 20
KT MPH EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
BORDERLAND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALLS SHOULD THEREFORE REDUCE THE FIRE THREAT. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH LOCALIZED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NEAR STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  74  95  74 /  30  40  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA           92  69  91  69 /  20  40  30  30
LAS CRUCES              94  70  92  70 /  40  40  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              92  69  91  70 /  30  40  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              69  55  70  55 /  60  60  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  70  91  69 /  40  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             84  63  83  63 /  50  50  50  50
DEMING                  94  70  92  69 /  40  40  40  50
LORDSBURG               94  69  91  68 /  50  40  40  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  74  95  74 /  30  40  30  40
DELL CITY               93  68  93  68 /  20  30  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            96  73  95  72 /  30  40  30  30
LOMA LINDA              90  69  89  69 /  30  40  40  40
FABENS                  96  72  95  71 /  30  40  30  40
SANTA TERESA            95  72  93  72 /  30  40  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          93  70  92  70 /  30  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           93  69  92  70 /  40  40  40  40
HATCH                   95  68  93  69 /  40  40  30  40
COLUMBUS                94  70  91  70 /  40  50  30  50
OROGRANDE               93  71  92  72 /  30  40  30  40
MAYHILL                 76  57  78  58 /  60  40  50  40
MESCALERO               78  57  80  58 /  60  50  60  50
TIMBERON                78  57  79  57 /  60  50  50  40
WINSTON                 84  61  83  61 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               91  65  90  65 /  40  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               92  68  92  69 /  40  40  30  40
LAKE ROBERTS            84  59  82  58 /  60  60  60  50
HURLEY                  87  65  85  64 /  50  50  50  50
CLIFF                   91  65  89  65 /  50  40  50  40
MULE CREEK              91  65  88  64 /  60  40  50  40
FAYWOOD                 89  65  87  65 /  40  40  50  50
ANIMAS                  96  68  91  68 /  50  50  40  40
HACHITA                 96  68  92  68 /  50  60  40  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          94  66  89  65 /  50  60  50  60
CLOVERDALE              90  65  86  64 /  50  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022148
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
348 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
BUT...DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMALS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LARGELY END TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVER
THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE.

A FAIRLY PERSISTANT AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
ANCHOR OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH NO REAL
MECHANISM FOR FLUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT. AS RESULT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE STORMS
WILL BE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS
AND DAY TIME HEATING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS FIRST THEN MOVE TO LOWER ELEVATIONS...SUSTAINED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACTING AS MINI-FRONTS AND PROVIDING THEIR OWN
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE THE FUEL THAT SUSTAINS THE STORMS
UNTIL THEY DIE OUT LATER DURING THE NIGHT. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. MAIN AREAS AFFECTED WILL
BE ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS. LOW WATER
CROSSINGS MAY BE IMPASSABLE FOR PERIODS OF TIME. PONDING OF WATER
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADS. ANY
HAIL PRODUCED BY STORMS WILL BE SMALL AND MOST WIND GUSTS WILL BE
UNDER 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER
50...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED MORE
TO THE EAST THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
THAT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO CONCENTRATE THE MOISTURE INTO MORE A
DEFINED PLUME THAT WILL STRADDLE EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS SEE A MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z.
P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU 08Z ISOLD LOWLAND AND
SCT MTN 3SM TSRA BKN050-070. AFT 16Z SCT-BKN060-080 BKN120-150
WITH SCT LOWLAND AND NMRS MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040. WINDS GENERALLY
AOB 12KTS EXCEPT NEAR TSMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE LOWLANDS AND ABOVE 30 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS HOWEVER WILL
LIMIT VENT RATES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  96  74  95 /  30  30  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA           70  92  69  91 /  30  30  40  20
LAS CRUCES              72  94  70  92 /  30  30  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              71  92  69  91 /  40  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              56  69  55  70 /  50  60  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  92  70  91 /  40  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             65  84  63  83 /  50  60  50  50
DEMING                  71  94  70  92 /  40  40  40  30
LORDSBURG               69  94  69  91 /  40  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  96  74  95 /  30  30  40  20
DELL CITY               70  93  68  93 /  30  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            73  96  73  95 /  30  30  40  20
LOMA LINDA              69  90  69  89 /  30  30  40  30
FABENS                  73  96  72  95 /  30  30  40  20
SANTA TERESA            74  95  72  93 /  30  30  40  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  93  70  92 /  30  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           71  93  69  92 /  40  30  40  30
HATCH                   71  95  68  93 /  30  40  40  20
COLUMBUS                72  94  70  91 /  40  40  50  20
OROGRANDE               73  93  71  92 /  30  30  40  20
MAYHILL                 59  76  57  78 /  50  60  40  50
MESCALERO               58  78  57  80 /  50  60  50  50
TIMBERON                58  78  57  79 /  50  60  50  50
WINSTON                 62  84  61  83 /  50  60  50  50
HILLSBORO               66  91  65  90 /  40  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               71  92  68  92 /  30  30  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  84  59  82 /  50  60  60  60
HURLEY                  66  87  65  85 /  40  50  50  40
CLIFF                   66  91  65  89 /  50  50  40  50
MULE CREEK              67  91  65  88 /  50  50  40  50
FAYWOOD                 66  89  65  87 /  40  50  40  40
ANIMAS                  69  96  68  91 /  40  50  50  30
HACHITA                 69  96  68  92 /  40  40  60  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  94  66  89 /  40  40  60  50
CLOVERDALE              66  90  65  86 /  40  50  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/04/26





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022148
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
348 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
BUT...DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMALS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LARGELY END TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVER
THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE.

A FAIRLY PERSISTANT AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
ANCHOR OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH NO REAL
MECHANISM FOR FLUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT. AS RESULT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE STORMS
WILL BE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS
AND DAY TIME HEATING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS FIRST THEN MOVE TO LOWER ELEVATIONS...SUSTAINED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACTING AS MINI-FRONTS AND PROVIDING THEIR OWN
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE THE FUEL THAT SUSTAINS THE STORMS
UNTIL THEY DIE OUT LATER DURING THE NIGHT. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. MAIN AREAS AFFECTED WILL
BE ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS. LOW WATER
CROSSINGS MAY BE IMPASSABLE FOR PERIODS OF TIME. PONDING OF WATER
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADS. ANY
HAIL PRODUCED BY STORMS WILL BE SMALL AND MOST WIND GUSTS WILL BE
UNDER 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER
50...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED MORE
TO THE EAST THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
THAT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO CONCENTRATE THE MOISTURE INTO MORE A
DEFINED PLUME THAT WILL STRADDLE EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS SEE A MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z.
P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU 08Z ISOLD LOWLAND AND
SCT MTN 3SM TSRA BKN050-070. AFT 16Z SCT-BKN060-080 BKN120-150
WITH SCT LOWLAND AND NMRS MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040. WINDS GENERALLY
AOB 12KTS EXCEPT NEAR TSMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE LOWLANDS AND ABOVE 30 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS HOWEVER WILL
LIMIT VENT RATES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  96  74  95 /  30  30  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA           70  92  69  91 /  30  30  40  20
LAS CRUCES              72  94  70  92 /  30  30  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              71  92  69  91 /  40  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              56  69  55  70 /  50  60  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  92  70  91 /  40  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             65  84  63  83 /  50  60  50  50
DEMING                  71  94  70  92 /  40  40  40  30
LORDSBURG               69  94  69  91 /  40  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  96  74  95 /  30  30  40  20
DELL CITY               70  93  68  93 /  30  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            73  96  73  95 /  30  30  40  20
LOMA LINDA              69  90  69  89 /  30  30  40  30
FABENS                  73  96  72  95 /  30  30  40  20
SANTA TERESA            74  95  72  93 /  30  30  40  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  93  70  92 /  30  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           71  93  69  92 /  40  30  40  30
HATCH                   71  95  68  93 /  30  40  40  20
COLUMBUS                72  94  70  91 /  40  40  50  20
OROGRANDE               73  93  71  92 /  30  30  40  20
MAYHILL                 59  76  57  78 /  50  60  40  50
MESCALERO               58  78  57  80 /  50  60  50  50
TIMBERON                58  78  57  79 /  50  60  50  50
WINSTON                 62  84  61  83 /  50  60  50  50
HILLSBORO               66  91  65  90 /  40  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               71  92  68  92 /  30  30  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  84  59  82 /  50  60  60  60
HURLEY                  66  87  65  85 /  40  50  50  40
CLIFF                   66  91  65  89 /  50  50  40  50
MULE CREEK              67  91  65  88 /  50  50  40  50
FAYWOOD                 66  89  65  87 /  40  50  40  40
ANIMAS                  69  96  68  91 /  40  50  50  30
HACHITA                 69  96  68  92 /  40  40  60  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  94  66  89 /  40  40  60  50
CLOVERDALE              66  90  65  86 /  40  50  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/04/26




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020843
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
243 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DEEPER AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MORE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO ALL PARTS OF THE BORDERLAND REGION. CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THE AFTERNOONS
SOMEWHAT OPPRESSIVE. SKIES WILL SHOW A WIDE MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
SOME STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING THE RISK OF
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLUG OF DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWFA...AND QUITE OBVIOUS
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER RIDGE COMBINED WITH THIS DRIER
AIR HAS RESULTED IN TWO MOSTLY DRY DAYS. HOWEVER THIS DRY REGION
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED OVER THE AREA AS DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO CONTRACT
BACK TO THE NW WHILE ROTATING WEST OF OUR AREA. REGIONAL
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH
IN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH.

TODAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL...FROM THE PREVIOUS DRY CONDITIONS TO A
MUCH MORE PERSISTENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ON IT`S WAY AND SHOULD BE WORKING INTO
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PW`S AND
DEWPOINTS AND A DECREASE IN STABLE CAPPING EFFECTS ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUD FORMATION AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FOR ALL AREAS LATE TODAY/THIS EVE. SHOULD
SEE SOME MTN STORMS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT WITH LOWLANDS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THAT HEAT WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER THE STORMS LATE TODAY OVER THE LOWLANDS.

BEYOND TODAY WE CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...FIRST FROM THE EAST AND LATER FROM THE SW. PW`S CURRENTLY
IN THE .80" RANGE WILL INCREASE TO THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE TONIGHT AND
HOVER THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS
CONDITIONS UNSTABLE AND ALLOWS FOR PCPN CHANCES FOR ALL PERIODS
BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEARLY ALL ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

TODAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED MORE WEST AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPULSES ALOFT TO TRACK IN FROM THE NORTH TO
HELP INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER
HIGH IS PROGED TO SHIFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY SHELTER
OUR REGION FROM THESE IMPULSES...BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL THEN
BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS.

MODELS DO SEEM TO TREND A BIT DRIER BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND RECYLED MOISTURE BEGINS TO WAIN A
BIT AS THE MID-LEVELS WARM IN SUBSIDENCE FOR A BIT OF CAPPING.

NONE OF THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC MONSOON TO ENABLE A GOOD
MOIST FETCH INTO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT JUST ENOUGH OF THE NECESSARY
ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE TO BRING THE MOISTURE NONE THE LESS. THUS WE
ARE IN THAT TYPICAL SUMMER ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NEARLY ANYWHERE ANYTIME EACH DAY/NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/120Z...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ALL TERMS TDY. VSBY P6SM. SKIES SKC-
FEW080-100 THRU 18Z. AFT 18Z ISOLD -TSRA SCT060-080 BKN130-150 AREA
MTS. AFT 22Z SCT080-100 SCT- BKN200-250 WITH ISOLD -TSRA OVR
LOWLANDS. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS FROM SE E OF RIO GRANDE AND
W TO NW WEST OF RIVER. TSTM WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND ISOLD VSBY
BLO 1SM IN BLDU POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS LOW AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING LATER TODAY AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND AS STORMS WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT
LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND THEN STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT STARTING FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT NIGHT RECOVERIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TO MARK THE
END OF ANY EXTENDED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS FIRE
SEASON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                102  75  96  74 /  10  30  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           99  70  92  68 /  10  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES             100  72  94  70 /  20  30  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              98  71  92  68 /  20  30  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              76  57  69  55 /  50  50  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   97  70  92  69 /  20  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             90  65  84  63 /  50  40  60  50
DEMING                 100  71  94  69 /  20  30  40  40
LORDSBURG               98  69  94  69 /  20  30  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO     102  76  96  74 /  10  30  30  40
DELL CITY              100  70  93  67 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK           102  73  96  73 /   0  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              97  69  90  69 /  10  30  30  30
FABENS                 102  73  96  72 /  10  30  30  30
SANTA TERESA           100  74  95  72 /  10  30  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ         100  72  94  70 /  20  30  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           99  71  93  68 /  20  30  30  40
HATCH                  100  70  95  68 /  20  30  40  40
COLUMBUS               100  71  94  70 /  10  30  40  50
OROGRANDE               99  73  93  71 /  20  30  30  40
MAYHILL                 84  59  75  57 /  50  40  60  40
MESCALERO               86  59  78  57 /  50  40  60  50
TIMBERON                85  58  78  57 /  50  40  60  50
WINSTON                 90  61  84  60 /  50  50  60  50
HILLSBORO               96  66  91  65 /  30  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               99  71  92  68 /  20  30  30  40
LAKE ROBERTS            90  60  83  59 /  50  50  60  60
HURLEY                  93  66  87  64 /  30  40  50  50
CLIFF                   96  65  91  64 /  40  40  50  40
MULE CREEK              95  67  90  65 /  40  40  50  40
FAYWOOD                 94  66  89  64 /  30  40  50  40
ANIMAS                 100  69  96  68 /  30  30  50  50
HACHITA                100  69  96  68 /  20  30  40  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          97  66  94  66 /  30  40  40  60
CLOVERDALE              93  66  90  65 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020843
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
243 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DEEPER AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MORE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO ALL PARTS OF THE BORDERLAND REGION. CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THE AFTERNOONS
SOMEWHAT OPPRESSIVE. SKIES WILL SHOW A WIDE MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
SOME STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING THE RISK OF
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLUG OF DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWFA...AND QUITE OBVIOUS
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER RIDGE COMBINED WITH THIS DRIER
AIR HAS RESULTED IN TWO MOSTLY DRY DAYS. HOWEVER THIS DRY REGION
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED OVER THE AREA AS DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO CONTRACT
BACK TO THE NW WHILE ROTATING WEST OF OUR AREA. REGIONAL
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH
IN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH.

TODAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL...FROM THE PREVIOUS DRY CONDITIONS TO A
MUCH MORE PERSISTENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ON IT`S WAY AND SHOULD BE WORKING INTO
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PW`S AND
DEWPOINTS AND A DECREASE IN STABLE CAPPING EFFECTS ALOFT. THE
RESULT WILL BE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUD FORMATION AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FOR ALL AREAS LATE TODAY/THIS EVE. SHOULD
SEE SOME MTN STORMS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT WITH LOWLANDS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THAT HEAT WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER THE STORMS LATE TODAY OVER THE LOWLANDS.

BEYOND TODAY WE CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...FIRST FROM THE EAST AND LATER FROM THE SW. PW`S CURRENTLY
IN THE .80" RANGE WILL INCREASE TO THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE TONIGHT AND
HOVER THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS
CONDITIONS UNSTABLE AND ALLOWS FOR PCPN CHANCES FOR ALL PERIODS
BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEARLY ALL ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

TODAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED MORE WEST AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPULSES ALOFT TO TRACK IN FROM THE NORTH TO
HELP INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER
HIGH IS PROGED TO SHIFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY SHELTER
OUR REGION FROM THESE IMPULSES...BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL THEN
BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS.

MODELS DO SEEM TO TREND A BIT DRIER BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND RECYLED MOISTURE BEGINS TO WAIN A
BIT AS THE MID-LEVELS WARM IN SUBSIDENCE FOR A BIT OF CAPPING.

NONE OF THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC MONSOON TO ENABLE A GOOD
MOIST FETCH INTO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT JUST ENOUGH OF THE NECESSARY
ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE TO BRING THE MOISTURE NONE THE LESS. THUS WE
ARE IN THAT TYPICAL SUMMER ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NEARLY ANYWHERE ANYTIME EACH DAY/NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/120Z...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ALL TERMS TDY. VSBY P6SM. SKIES SKC-
FEW080-100 THRU 18Z. AFT 18Z ISOLD -TSRA SCT060-080 BKN130-150 AREA
MTS. AFT 22Z SCT080-100 SCT- BKN200-250 WITH ISOLD -TSRA OVR
LOWLANDS. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS FROM SE E OF RIO GRANDE AND
W TO NW WEST OF RIVER. TSTM WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND ISOLD VSBY
BLO 1SM IN BLDU POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS LOW AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING LATER TODAY AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND AS STORMS WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT
LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND THEN STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT STARTING FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT NIGHT RECOVERIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TO MARK THE
END OF ANY EXTENDED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS FIRE
SEASON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                102  75  96  74 /  10  30  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           99  70  92  68 /  10  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES             100  72  94  70 /  20  30  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              98  71  92  68 /  20  30  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              76  57  69  55 /  50  50  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   97  70  92  69 /  20  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             90  65  84  63 /  50  40  60  50
DEMING                 100  71  94  69 /  20  30  40  40
LORDSBURG               98  69  94  69 /  20  30  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO     102  76  96  74 /  10  30  30  40
DELL CITY              100  70  93  67 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK           102  73  96  73 /   0  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              97  69  90  69 /  10  30  30  30
FABENS                 102  73  96  72 /  10  30  30  30
SANTA TERESA           100  74  95  72 /  10  30  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ         100  72  94  70 /  20  30  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           99  71  93  68 /  20  30  30  40
HATCH                  100  70  95  68 /  20  30  40  40
COLUMBUS               100  71  94  70 /  10  30  40  50
OROGRANDE               99  73  93  71 /  20  30  30  40
MAYHILL                 84  59  75  57 /  50  40  60  40
MESCALERO               86  59  78  57 /  50  40  60  50
TIMBERON                85  58  78  57 /  50  40  60  50
WINSTON                 90  61  84  60 /  50  50  60  50
HILLSBORO               96  66  91  65 /  30  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               99  71  92  68 /  20  30  30  40
LAKE ROBERTS            90  60  83  59 /  50  50  60  60
HURLEY                  93  66  87  64 /  30  40  50  50
CLIFF                   96  65  91  64 /  40  40  50  40
MULE CREEK              95  67  90  65 /  40  40  50  40
FAYWOOD                 94  66  89  64 /  30  40  50  40
ANIMAS                 100  69  96  68 /  30  30  50  50
HACHITA                100  69  96  68 /  20  30  40  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          97  66  94  66 /  30  40  40  60
CLOVERDALE              93  66  90  65 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ENTER THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY
RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS SO PERSONS SHOULD STAY
ALERT FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND WARM STABLE AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE BARELY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ARIZONA FOR VERY ISOLATED
STORMS BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST INTO ARIZONA WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER WAVES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION A
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER
THE FROM THE NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMBINED THE DESERT HEAT LOW
OVER ARIZONA WILL MEANWHILE INDUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH TRAJECTORIES FAVORING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL PUSH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CORRESPONDING RISES
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE
INCREASES WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES AROUND
600 TO 1200 J/KG MOST LOCATIONS.

LIFTING FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PLUS WEAK
UPPER WAVES AND OUTFLOWS WILL THEREFORE BRING MUCH MORE WIDESPREADSHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
SATURDAY. THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE PLUS SLOW STORM MOTION
VECTORS INDICATE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MONITORED. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL HAIL WITH VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

BY SUNDAY A LEE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN RESPONSE SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH USUALLY SUGGESTS INFLOW OF DRIER
AIR. HOWEVER INSPECTION OF REGIONAL WINDS INDICATES TRAJECTORIES
WILL EXTEND INTO BAJA MEANING THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1.2 TO
1.4 INCHES ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AIR MASS THUS REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH THREAT OF CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING INTO THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z...P6SM SKC-FEW080-100 ISOLD
-TSRA BKN060-080 AREA MTS THRU 03Z. AFT 18Z SCT080-100
SCT-BKN200-250 WITH ISOLD -TSRA BKN050-070 NORTH OF KALM-KDMN LINE.
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS FROM SE E OF RIO GRANDE AND W TO NW WEST
OF RIVER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING STARTING
THURSDAY AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND
THEN STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT STARTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75 102  75  97 /   0  10  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           68  99  70  93 /   0  10  30  30
LAS CRUCES              71 100  72  95 /  10  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              71  98  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              59  76  57  70 /  10  50  50  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  97  70  93 /  10  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             65  90  65  85 /  20  50  40  60
DEMING                  71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               70  98  69  95 /  10  30  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      75 102  76  97 /   0  10  30  30
DELL CITY               69 100  70  94 /   0  10  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
LOMA LINDA              69  97  69  91 /   0  10  30  30
FABENS                  72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
SANTA TERESA            73 100  74  96 /   0  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          71 100  72  95 /   0  20  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           71  99  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
HATCH                   71 100  70  96 /  10  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
OROGRANDE               72  99  73  94 /   0  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 60  84  59  76 /  10  50  40  60
MESCALERO               59  86  59  79 /  10  50  40  60
TIMBERON                59  85  58  79 /  10  50  40  60
WINSTON                 63  90  61  85 /  20  50  50  60
HILLSBORO               67  96  66  92 /  10  30  40  40
SPACEPORT               71  99  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  90  60  84 /  20  50  50  60
HURLEY                  67  93  66  88 /  10  30  40  50
CLIFF                   64  96  65  92 /  20  50  50  50
MULE CREEK              65  95  67  91 /  20  40  40  50
FAYWOOD                 68  94  66  90 /  10  30  40  50
ANIMAS                  70 100  69  97 /  10  30  30  50
HACHITA                 70 100  69  97 /  10  20  30  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  97  66  95 /  10  30  40  40
CLOVERDALE              66  93  66  91 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ENTER THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY
RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS SO PERSONS SHOULD STAY
ALERT FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND WARM STABLE AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE BARELY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ARIZONA FOR VERY ISOLATED
STORMS BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST INTO ARIZONA WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER WAVES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION A
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER
THE FROM THE NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMBINED THE DESERT HEAT LOW
OVER ARIZONA WILL MEANWHILE INDUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH TRAJECTORIES FAVORING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL PUSH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CORRESPONDING RISES
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE
INCREASES WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES AROUND
600 TO 1200 J/KG MOST LOCATIONS.

LIFTING FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PLUS WEAK
UPPER WAVES AND OUTFLOWS WILL THEREFORE BRING MUCH MORE WIDESPREADSHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
SATURDAY. THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE PLUS SLOW STORM MOTION
VECTORS INDICATE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MONITORED. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL HAIL WITH VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

BY SUNDAY A LEE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN RESPONSE SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH USUALLY SUGGESTS INFLOW OF DRIER
AIR. HOWEVER INSPECTION OF REGIONAL WINDS INDICATES TRAJECTORIES
WILL EXTEND INTO BAJA MEANING THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1.2 TO
1.4 INCHES ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AIR MASS THUS REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH THREAT OF CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING INTO THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z...P6SM SKC-FEW080-100 ISOLD
-TSRA BKN060-080 AREA MTS THRU 03Z. AFT 18Z SCT080-100
SCT-BKN200-250 WITH ISOLD -TSRA BKN050-070 NORTH OF KALM-KDMN LINE.
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS FROM SE E OF RIO GRANDE AND W TO NW WEST
OF RIVER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING STARTING
THURSDAY AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND
THEN STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT STARTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75 102  75  97 /   0  10  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           68  99  70  93 /   0  10  30  30
LAS CRUCES              71 100  72  95 /  10  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              71  98  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              59  76  57  70 /  10  50  50  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  97  70  93 /  10  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             65  90  65  85 /  20  50  40  60
DEMING                  71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               70  98  69  95 /  10  30  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      75 102  76  97 /   0  10  30  30
DELL CITY               69 100  70  94 /   0  10  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
LOMA LINDA              69  97  69  91 /   0  10  30  30
FABENS                  72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
SANTA TERESA            73 100  74  96 /   0  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          71 100  72  95 /   0  20  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           71  99  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
HATCH                   71 100  70  96 /  10  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
OROGRANDE               72  99  73  94 /   0  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 60  84  59  76 /  10  50  40  60
MESCALERO               59  86  59  79 /  10  50  40  60
TIMBERON                59  85  58  79 /  10  50  40  60
WINSTON                 63  90  61  85 /  20  50  50  60
HILLSBORO               67  96  66  92 /  10  30  40  40
SPACEPORT               71  99  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  90  60  84 /  20  50  50  60
HURLEY                  67  93  66  88 /  10  30  40  50
CLIFF                   64  96  65  92 /  20  50  50  50
MULE CREEK              65  95  67  91 /  20  40  40  50
FAYWOOD                 68  94  66  90 /  10  30  40  50
ANIMAS                  70 100  69  97 /  10  30  30  50
HACHITA                 70 100  69  97 /  10  20  30  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  97  66  95 /  10  30  40  40
CLOVERDALE              66  93  66  91 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
303 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE TO
THE REGION. THUS EXPECT REDUCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.

ON THURSDAY A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND
BECOMES ALIGNED NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTOLYTIC
TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH PLUS
DESERT HEAT LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
SUSTAIN A MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THUS RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.3
TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH CAPES
AROUND 700 TO 1500 MOST LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PLUS POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD THEREFORE GENERATE INCREASING CONVECTION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
INDICATE A PRIMARY RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING SO
SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...00Z-06Z ISOLD CB/TSTM MAINLY
GILAS  SCT070-090 SCT 100-140 SCT-BKN200-250. GNL SFC WINDS NNE-ESE
7-13 KTS. AFT 06Z: FEW080 SCT250 WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TUESDAY DOWN ABOUT 3% OVERALL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           67  96  68  97 /   0  10   0  10
LAS CRUCES              70  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  98  71  96 /  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              56  76  59  74 /  10  20  20  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  98  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
SILVER CITY             64  92  65  88 /  20  20  20  40
DEMING                  69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
LORDSBURG               70 100  70  96 /  10  10  10  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      74 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               66  99  69  98 /   0  10  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            71 101  72 100 /   0  10   0  10
LOMA LINDA              68  94  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  71 101  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            72  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
HATCH                   69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
COLUMBUS                70 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
OROGRANDE               71  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 58  86  60  82 /  10  20  20  40
MESCALERO               57  87  59  84 /  10  20  20  40
TIMBERON                57  85  59  83 /  10  20  10  40
WINSTON                 62  91  63  88 /  10  20  20  50
HILLSBORO               66  98  67  94 /  10  10  10  30
SPACEPORT               69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  91  61  88 /  20  20  20  50
HURLEY                  66  95  67  91 /  20  20  10  30
CLIFF                   65  98  64  94 /  20  20  20  40
MULE CREEK              66  97  65  93 /  20  20  20  40
FAYWOOD                 66  95  68  92 /  20  10  10  30
ANIMAS                  69 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  30
HACHITA                 68 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  30
CLOVERDALE              66  95  66  91 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
303 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE TO
THE REGION. THUS EXPECT REDUCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.

ON THURSDAY A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND
BECOMES ALIGNED NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTOLYTIC
TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH PLUS
DESERT HEAT LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
SUSTAIN A MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THUS RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.3
TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH CAPES
AROUND 700 TO 1500 MOST LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PLUS POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD THEREFORE GENERATE INCREASING CONVECTION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
INDICATE A PRIMARY RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING SO
SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...00Z-06Z ISOLD CB/TSTM MAINLY
GILAS  SCT070-090 SCT 100-140 SCT-BKN200-250. GNL SFC WINDS NNE-ESE
7-13 KTS. AFT 06Z: FEW080 SCT250 WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TUESDAY DOWN ABOUT 3% OVERALL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           67  96  68  97 /   0  10   0  10
LAS CRUCES              70  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  98  71  96 /  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              56  76  59  74 /  10  20  20  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  98  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
SILVER CITY             64  92  65  88 /  20  20  20  40
DEMING                  69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
LORDSBURG               70 100  70  96 /  10  10  10  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      74 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               66  99  69  98 /   0  10  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            71 101  72 100 /   0  10   0  10
LOMA LINDA              68  94  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  71 101  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            72  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
HATCH                   69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
COLUMBUS                70 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
OROGRANDE               71  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 58  86  60  82 /  10  20  20  40
MESCALERO               57  87  59  84 /  10  20  20  40
TIMBERON                57  85  59  83 /  10  20  10  40
WINSTON                 62  91  63  88 /  10  20  20  50
HILLSBORO               66  98  67  94 /  10  10  10  30
SPACEPORT               69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  91  61  88 /  20  20  20  50
HURLEY                  66  95  67  91 /  20  20  10  30
CLIFF                   65  98  64  94 /  20  20  20  40
MULE CREEK              66  97  65  93 /  20  20  20  40
FAYWOOD                 66  95  68  92 /  20  10  10  30
ANIMAS                  69 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  30
HACHITA                 68 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  30
CLOVERDALE              66  95  66  91 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN




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