Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240942
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AND SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS. FOR NEXT WEEK WARM DRY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CONVECTION OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY ON THURSDAY CREATED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PUSHED MOIST AIR TO THE WEST AS FAR AS
THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS TO 50 AS FAR WEST
AS EL PASO. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM
.75 TO 1 INCH. THUS DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRY LINE TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INITIATE STORMS.
WIND SHEAR WILL INCLUDE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS BENEATH 20 TO 30
KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MID LEVELS WHILE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET AGL INDICATING RISK OF HAIL WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS 40 TO 50 ALSO SUGGESTING STRONG DOWNBURSTS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. ELSEWHERE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUSTAIN WARM DRY WEATHER. ON SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THUS DRY
LINE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY
TO HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG WEST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING
EAST ON SUNDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THUS DRY LINE SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ENDING PRECIP/THUNDER THREAT
ALL LOCATIONS. UPPER TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFY AND MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE EAST. INFLOW OF
WARM DRY AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO NEAR 550 MB
ALLOWING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THUS
EXPECT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS
ACTUALLY HAD CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE BORDER CAUSING
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF
RUN PLUS ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANY CLOSED LOWS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN
18Z AND 02Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AND SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
HUDSPETH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN WARM DRY
WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO ALL LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST TO GENERATE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
TO WINDY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  68  94  68  95 /  20  20  10  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           89  64  91  63  92 /  30  30  20  20  10
LAS CRUCES              92  59  93  59  94 /  10  10  10  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              91  59  92  60  93 /  20  20  10  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              69  46  70  46  71 /  40  30  30  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   89  60  90  59  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             91  53  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  93  54  94  54  95 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               91  55  91  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  68  93  68  94 /  20  20  10  10   0
DELL CITY               91  57  93  58  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            94  66  96  67  97 /  30  20  10  10   0
LOMA LINDA              86  57  87  58  88 /  20  20  10  10   0
FABENS                  93  66  94  66  95 /  20  20  10  10   0
SANTA TERESA            92  62  93  62  94 /  10  10  10  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  67  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           90  52  91  52  92 /  10  10  10  10   0
HATCH                   88  60  89  59  90 /  10   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                92  59  93  59  94 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               93  59  94  60  95 /  20  20  10  10   0
MAYHILL                 78  54  79  54  80 /  40  30  30  30  10
MESCALERO               81  45  82  45  83 /  40  30  20  20  10
TIMBERON                79  46  80  46  81 /  40  30  30  20  10
WINSTON                 82  46  83  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               85  54  86  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               88  57  89  57  90 /  10  10  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            83  46  84  45  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  87  57  88  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   93  49  93  47  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              90  39  90  38  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 85  54  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  92  55  92  53  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 93  54  93  53  93 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          93  57  93  55  93 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              89  52  89  51  89 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232047
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
247 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY OVERNIGHT...AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
IS DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BORDERLAND. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH STRONG DOWN BURST WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN ENDING THEREAFTER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS DRIVE
THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE
COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST REGION...WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.A. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH THE EFFECT OF ITS
APPROACH BEGINNING TO DRAW GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE
BORDERLAND AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE NOW TO
OUR EAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.A. AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...IS
CARRYING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY.
TOTALS TOTALS OVER 50C AND LIFTED INDICES BELOW -3 ARE FORECAST
FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG WITH SIMILAR TT AND LI VALUES...ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AND NORTH INTO EASTERN OTERO
COUNTY. GIVEN INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...25-30 KTS OF WIND SHEAR THROUGH 6 KM IN THE 0-6 KM
AGL...ANY ENHANCEMENT BY ADDITION SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
ELEVATE STORM INTENSITY TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES ENTER AND ROTATE
AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FLOW
WILL DEEPEN...WITH A DEEP WARM DRY MIXING LAYER EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LEAST 20-30 MPH EXPECTED FOR THAT TIME.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO DIVERGE WILDLY DIVERGE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS PAINTING A DRIER SCENARIO. HERE BROAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST AND THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IS DRIVEN FURTHER
EAST OF OUR AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A MUCH
WETTER SCENARIO...WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND CUT OFF LOW
SOUTH OF ARIZONA BY MIDWEEK. THIS WOULD SERVE TO DRAW
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE OUR WAY WITH A MUCH
DEEPER SOUTHERLY TAP. HAVE LITTLE IN WAY OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE
EC SOLUTION FOR THAT HIGH OF AMPLITUDE IN PATTERN THIS TIME OF
YEAR. OPTING FOR STRONG BIAS TOWARDS DRIER GFS SCENARIO...WHICH
CLIMATE-WISE...IS MORE REALISTIC FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
REMAIN FORECAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD. UNTIL 15Z P6SM FEW120-150 SCT-BKN200-250 WITH
WEST WINDS 6-12KTS ALONG AND WEST OF A KALM-KELP LINE. EAST OF THE
LINE EXPECT FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200 WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SSE
UP TO 10KTS.  AFT 15Z ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200 WITH ISOLD TO
SCT 3-5SM TSRA BKN040 WITH GREATEST COVERAGE THE FURTHER EAST YOU
GO. TO THE WEST...SW WINDS 10-15KTS FEW-SCT120-150.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALLOWING A DRYLINE TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FIRE DISTRICT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SACS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR DRY
LIGHTNING INCREASE FROM SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST INTO EL PASO
COUNTY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY TO KEEP
MOST STORMS WET. NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH EVERY AFTERNOON SEEING AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS. SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE LIKELY SO ANY DAY STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY COULD POTENTIALLY SEE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  93  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           66  89  64  91  63 /  20  30  30  20  10
LAS CRUCES              61  92  59  93  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              61  91  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              49  69  46  70  46 /  20  30  30  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  89  60  90  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  91  53  91  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  57  93  54  94  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  91  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      68  92  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               60  91  57  93  58 /  20  30  30  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            68  94  66  96  67 /  10  20  20  10  10
LOMA LINDA              59  86  57  87  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  69  93  66  94  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            63  92  62  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  90  67  91  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           52  90  52  91  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
HATCH                   61  88  60  89  59 /   0  10   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                62  92  59  93  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               61  93  59  94  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 57  78  54  79  54 /  20  40  40  30  20
MESCALERO               48  81  45  82  45 /  10  30  30  20  20
TIMBERON                49  79  46  80  46 /  10  30  30  20  20
WINSTON                 49  82  46  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               57  85  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               57  88  57  89  57 /   0  10  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            49  83  46  84  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  58  87  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   52  93  49  93  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              42  90  39  90  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 57  85  54  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  59  92  55  92  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 56  93  54  93  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  93  57  93  55 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  89  52  89  51 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230831
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
231 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ALL BUT HUDSPETH COUNTY
QUITE DRY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL WORK WESTWARD OVER HUDSPETH AND
EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THOSE AREAS TO SEE A
SLIGHT RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE MOISTURE
WILL PUSH WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT WILL CREATE
INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER AIR ON STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT ON SUNDAY. THUS
WARM AND DRY WITH WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXACT WESTWARD EXTENT OF A GULF
MOISTURE SURGE. A LARGE NW PAC LOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
HAS PLACED OUR REGION UNDER A DEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN NM PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE IS AIDING A WESTWARD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON SE
WINDS ACROSS TX AND HELPING TO INCREASE SW WINDS INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TODAY THE AREA WILL SEE
CONTINUED BOUTS WITH HIGH CLOUDS...BUT VERY DRY AIR. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWLANDS SEEING MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY IS APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE/GULF MOIST SURGE WILL BACK INTO
HUDSPETH CO AND POSSIBLY INTO E OTERO COUNTY. THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INDUCES SOME INSTABILITY IN THE DAYTIME HEATING. THUS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME POP POTENTIAL OVER A FAR EASTERN SLIVER OF THOSE COUNTIES.

TONIGHT THE MOIST PUSH PRESSES WEST WITH A DRYLINE SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL.
OTHER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT HERE. THUS FOR FRIDAY...THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPANDS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS EASTERN SIERRA
AND DONA ANA COUNTIES. THESE WILL BE HEAT INDUCED STORMS AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THUS POPS IN
THE PM HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT. THIS SAME SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
AGAIN FOR A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST AGAIN SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THE WEST COAST LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO PRESS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND BRING SW WINDS
BACK TO THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MOVING BACK OVER ALL ZONES. IN
ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND MIXING DEPTHS DEEPEN.
THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWLANDS FLIRTING WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR.
WILD FIRE DANGER WILL INTENSIFY WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH SKC-SCT200-250. GENERALLY W TO SW WINDS
12-18G25KTS DURING DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND UNDER 10KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE REGION UP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. FURTHER EAST INTO
HUDSPETH COUNTY GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...BUT STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 97  70  93  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           95  66  90  63  91 /  10  20  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              95  61  92  59  93 /   0   0  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              95  61  91  59  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              71  49  69  46  70 /  10  20  30  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  64  89  60  90 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             89  55  91  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  95  57  93  54  94 /   0   0  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               95  57  91  55  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      95  68  92  68  93 /   0  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               95  60  92  57  93 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            96  68  95  66  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LOMA LINDA              88  59  86  57  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  96  69  93  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            97  63  92  62  93 /   0  10  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  69  90  67  91 /   0  10  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           96  52  90  52  91 /   0  10  10  10  10
HATCH                   92  61  88  60  89 /   0   0  10   0  10
COLUMBUS                96  62  92  59  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               98  61  93  59  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 82  57  78  54  79 /  10  20  40  40  30
MESCALERO               84  48  81  45  82 /  10  10  30  30  20
TIMBERON                82  49  79  46  80 /  10  10  30  30  20
WINSTON                 85  49  82  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               90  57  85  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               94  57  88  57  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            86  49  83  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  89  58  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   94  52  93  49  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              91  42  90  39  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 90  57  85  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  95  59  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 94  56  93  54  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  60  93  57  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              90  55  89  52  89 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222001
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS AND AS A RESULT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH WESTERLY FLOW TO BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AN UNUSUALLY DEEP HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FOR LATE MAY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED CIRCULATING OVER OREGON. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE WASHINGTON/OREGON VICINITY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WEST COAST
REGION.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LINE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WIND SHIFT LINE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST OF ITS AXIS. THUS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY CAPES WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG TO 1500
J/KG DURING THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE FROM .75 TO 1.2 INCHES.
THESE FACTORS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE EASTWARD WITH STRONGEST STORMS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INITIATION MECHANISMS SHOULD INCLUDE SURFACE
HEATING...DRY LINE CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
PASSING ALOFT. STORM THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY EASTERN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
TO EL PASO AND WESTERN OTERO COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE WARM AND DRY.

BY SUNDAY A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH DRY
LINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THUS EXPECT WARM
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH SKC-SCT200-250. GENERALLY W TO SW WINDS
12-18G25KTS DURING DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND UNDER 10KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE REGION UP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. FURTHER EAST INTO
HUDSPETH COUNTY GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...BUT STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  96  70  94  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           62  94  66  91  63 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              58  94  61  93  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              58  94  61  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  70  49  70  46 /   0  10  20  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  93  64  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  88  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  56  94  57  94  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  94  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  94  68  93  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
DELL CITY               57  94  60  93  57 /   0  10  20  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            64  95  68  96  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
LOMA LINDA              57  87  59  87  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  66  95  67  94  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            60  96  63  93  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  93  69  91  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           49  95  52  91  52 /   0   0  10  10  10
HATCH                   59  91  61  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                61  95  62  93  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  97  61  94  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 53  81  57  79  54 /   0  10  20  30  30
MESCALERO               45  83  48  82  45 /   0  10  10  30  30
TIMBERON                44  81  49  80  46 /   0  10  10  30  30
WINSTON                 48  84  49  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  89  57  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               56  93  57  89  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            49  85  49  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  59  88  58  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   51  93  52  93  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              42  90  42  90  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 58  89  57  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  94  59  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 56  93  56  93  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  94  60  93  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  89  55  89  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220853
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT
GULF MOISTURE WILL PRESS WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES...AND MAYBE EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYS WARM AND DRY.
OTHERWISE WARM DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWO WORDS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER...WARM/DRY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMS TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AFTERNOON WINDS JUST BELOW BREEZY
CRITERIA. A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE
GENERALLY SUNNY AND WARM TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY... BUT SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THUS MID
90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.
CONTINUED VERY DRY...MEANING WILDFIRE CONCERNS ELEVATE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT WEST A BIT ALLOWING FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ON SE FLOW ACROSS TX. THIS
MAY BRING THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. IF SO...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN CWFA. HOWEVER WE EXPECT MOST
STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE DRY LINE IS PROGED TO BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA...EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DRYLINE
PLACEMENT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO DRIFT WEST INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN
AND POSSIBLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK EAST A BIT WITH DAYTIME MIXING. THUS
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH...AND ONLY
EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES FOR THESE TWO AFTERNOONS/EVENING. FOR ALL
OTHER ZONES TO THE WEST IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WITH
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
A BIT. THIS NUDGES THE SURFACE TROUGH BACK TO THE NM/TX STATE LINE
AND EFFECTIVELY ENDS OUR EAST ZONE PCPN CHANCES AS THE DRY LINE
EXITS THE REGION TO OUR EAST. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER DEEP...DRY...WARM...BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELUCTANTLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE WINDS
DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 18-24 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND OVER
EASTERN AREAS ONLY...

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL TODAY AS SW FLOW RESUMES.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH WESTWARDS
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION RESULTING IN SOME THUNDER- STORM
ACTIVITY TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN OUTFLOW WHICH WILL FURTHER PUSH THE MOISTURE AND DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WESTWARDS AND REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS/GUADALUPES IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. BEING ON THE
MARGINAL WESTWARD FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  69  95  70  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           91  62  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20  20
LAS CRUCES              91  58  93  61  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              90  58  93  61  93 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              68  45  69  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   91  61  92  64  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             88  55  87  55  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  91  56  93  57  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               91  57  93  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  66  93  68  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
DELL CITY               91  57  93  60  94 /   0   0  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            95  64  94  68  97 /   0   0  10  10  10
LOMA LINDA              87  57  86  59  88 /   0   0  10  10  10
FABENS                  93  66  94  67  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            93  60  95  63  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          91  67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           91  49  94  52  92 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   88  59  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                91  61  94  62  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               94  57  96  61  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 80  53  80  57  80 /   0   0  10  20  30
MESCALERO               79  45  82  48  83 /   0   0  10  10  20
TIMBERON                78  44  80  49  81 /   0   0  10  10  20
WINSTON                 81  48  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               86  56  88  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               90  56  92  57  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            83  49  84  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  86  59  87  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   92  51  92  52  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              88  42  89  42  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 85  58  88  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  91  57  93  59  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 90  56  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          92  60  93  60  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              86  55  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212009
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
209 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WARM DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WITH A
DRY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP OUR HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE LARGER SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UNSEASONABLY
DEEP HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON
THURSDAY. SYSTEM WILL SUBSEQUENTLY EXHIBIT LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH SERIES OF VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A BACKING FLOW WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

CONSEQUENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE 40 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO NEAR AN INCH. IN ADDITION EXPECT CAPES TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRY LINE PLUS SURFACE HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT TO INITIATE UPDRAFTS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK CONVECTION OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR TRANSPORT TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE DRIER
AIR TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH DRY LINE BEING FORCED EAST OF THE CWA.
THUS WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WWILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RELUCTANTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE
WINDS DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 18-24 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY LIGHTNING RISK INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL TOMORROW AS SW FLOW
RESUMES.  GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
WESTWARDS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION RESULTING IN SOME THUNDER-
STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUTFLOW WHICH WILL FURTHER PUSH THE MOISTURE AND DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WESTWARDS AND REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS/GUADALUPES IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. BEING ON THE
MARGINAL WESTWARD FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  94  68  96  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           57  91  62  94  63 /   0   0   0  10  20
LAS CRUCES              56  91  58  93  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              54  90  58  94  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              39  68  45  70  46 /   0   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  91  61  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  88  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  52  91  56  93  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  91  57  93  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  93  66  94  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               53  92  56  94  57 /   0   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            58  96  63  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
LOMA LINDA              53  87  57  87  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
FABENS                  60  94  65  95  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
SANTA TERESA            58  93  60  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          61  91  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           46  91  49  94  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   55  88  59  90  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                58  91  61  94  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  94  57  97  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
MAYHILL                 47  80  53  81  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               41  79  45  83  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                41  78  44  81  46 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 47  81  48  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               51  86  56  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  90  56  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  83  49  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  54  86  59  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   45  92  51  92  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  88  42  89  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 52  85  58  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  56  91  57  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 50  90  56  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          58  92  60  93  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              53  86  55  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities