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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
404 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE MARKED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST THAT KICK OFF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY WILL DRY OUT AND HEAT UP...BUT A SLIGHT RISK OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY
SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR A SLIGHT SHOT OF A
THUNDERSTORM. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BACK TO JUST NORMAL SUNNY AND
WARM WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EAST...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA. THURSDAY
DRYING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT AREAS EAST OF EL PASO COULD STILL
SEE A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS NICE DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH DRY SLOT IS FILLING BACK
IN SOMEWHAT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE
(HIGH DEWPOINTS) STILL EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EAST...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S. HI RES
MODELS SHOW MOST SURFACE MOISTURE OUT EAST OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST. HRRR SHOWS MOISTURE STILL FROM ABOUT ALAMOGORDO TO SIERRA
BLANCA AT 18Z...SO LEFT POPS IN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (SAC MTNS)
WITHIN THIS AREA. BY AROUND 21Z MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED OUT OF THE
CWA. THIS IS USUALLY ABOUT THE TIME THE LOWLANDS CAN START FIRING
OFF. BREEZY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. WILL LET FIRE WX DESK DECIDE ON UPGRADE TO RED FLAG A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING. DRYLINE/MOISTURE REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AGAIN SATURDAY THOUGH NAM12 AND GFS BOTH SHOW MOISTURE UNDULATING
BACK INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY SO KEPT LOW POP IN THERE. BROAD SCALE LIFT
FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COULD HELP KICK THE STORMS OFF. STORMS
ON EITHER DAY WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT DECENT
SPEED SHEAR COULD PROVIDE SOME BACK BUILDING STORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE LOWLANDS SEEING ANOTHER BATCH OF
90 DEGREE DAYS. NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN DRAW THE DRYLINE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GFS BRINGS
THE DRYLINE AND MOISTURE BACK WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (ECMWF
KEEPS IT EAST OF EL PASO). FOR NOW LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SINCE
THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN MAKING IT TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IF NOT
FURTHER WEST. STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CAPES POINT TOWARD A SMALL RISK OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST HALF OF THE CWA. RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...THOUGH DRYING BEGINS FROM THE
WEST AGAIN. STORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO EAST OF EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD WITH
P6SM SKC INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY SCT-BKN250 AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 18Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EXCEED 12 KTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS COMMON AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SLOWLY TRACKS TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR BACK TO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A
DROP IN MIN RH VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE CRITICAL RANGE ACROSS ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH TODAY
AND TOMORROW. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE MET IN A FEW LOWLAND
SPOTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN FIRE ZONES. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WETTING PRECIP BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  61  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           87  61  84  52  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              87  50  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              85  53  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              62  39  59  37  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  50  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             77  44  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  85  46  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               84  45  76  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      89  61  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               84  55  81  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            89  62  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  88  58  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            89  56  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  57  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           84  48  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   85  49  80  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                83  52  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               86  57  82  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 70  46  69  42  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               72  42  70  40  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                71  44  68  42  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 74  41  71  40  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               81  46  80  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               84  45  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            76  40  70  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  78  43  73  41  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   81  40  75  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              78  38  75  36  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 78  45  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  45  78  46  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 86  44  80  45  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  43  81  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              78  44  77  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ111.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
404 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE MARKED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST THAT KICK OFF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY WILL DRY OUT AND HEAT UP...BUT A SLIGHT RISK OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY
SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR A SLIGHT SHOT OF A
THUNDERSTORM. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BACK TO JUST NORMAL SUNNY AND
WARM WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EAST...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA. THURSDAY
DRYING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT AREAS EAST OF EL PASO COULD STILL
SEE A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS NICE DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH DRY SLOT IS FILLING BACK
IN SOMEWHAT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE
(HIGH DEWPOINTS) STILL EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EAST...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S. HI RES
MODELS SHOW MOST SURFACE MOISTURE OUT EAST OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST. HRRR SHOWS MOISTURE STILL FROM ABOUT ALAMOGORDO TO SIERRA
BLANCA AT 18Z...SO LEFT POPS IN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (SAC MTNS)
WITHIN THIS AREA. BY AROUND 21Z MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED OUT OF THE
CWA. THIS IS USUALLY ABOUT THE TIME THE LOWLANDS CAN START FIRING
OFF. BREEZY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. WILL LET FIRE WX DESK DECIDE ON UPGRADE TO RED FLAG A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING. DRYLINE/MOISTURE REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AGAIN SATURDAY THOUGH NAM12 AND GFS BOTH SHOW MOISTURE UNDULATING
BACK INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY SO KEPT LOW POP IN THERE. BROAD SCALE LIFT
FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COULD HELP KICK THE STORMS OFF. STORMS
ON EITHER DAY WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT DECENT
SPEED SHEAR COULD PROVIDE SOME BACK BUILDING STORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE LOWLANDS SEEING ANOTHER BATCH OF
90 DEGREE DAYS. NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN DRAW THE DRYLINE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GFS BRINGS
THE DRYLINE AND MOISTURE BACK WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (ECMWF
KEEPS IT EAST OF EL PASO). FOR NOW LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SINCE
THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN MAKING IT TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IF NOT
FURTHER WEST. STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CAPES POINT TOWARD A SMALL RISK OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST HALF OF THE CWA. RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...THOUGH DRYING BEGINS FROM THE
WEST AGAIN. STORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO EAST OF EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD WITH
P6SM SKC INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY SCT-BKN250 AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 18Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EXCEED 12 KTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS COMMON AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SLOWLY TRACKS TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR BACK TO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A
DROP IN MIN RH VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE CRITICAL RANGE ACROSS ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH TODAY
AND TOMORROW. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE MET IN A FEW LOWLAND
SPOTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN FIRE ZONES. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WETTING PRECIP BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  61  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           87  61  84  52  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              87  50  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              85  53  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              62  39  59  37  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  50  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             77  44  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  85  46  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               84  45  76  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      89  61  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               84  55  81  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            89  62  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  88  58  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            89  56  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  57  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           84  48  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   85  49  80  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                83  52  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               86  57  82  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 70  46  69  42  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               72  42  70  40  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                71  44  68  42  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 74  41  71  40  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               81  46  80  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               84  45  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            76  40  70  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  78  43  73  41  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   81  40  75  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              78  38  75  36  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 78  45  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  45  78  46  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 86  44  80  45  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  43  81  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              78  44  77  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ111.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
404 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE MARKED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST THAT KICK OFF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY WILL DRY OUT AND HEAT UP...BUT A SLIGHT RISK OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY
SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR A SLIGHT SHOT OF A
THUNDERSTORM. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BACK TO JUST NORMAL SUNNY AND
WARM WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EAST...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA. THURSDAY
DRYING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT AREAS EAST OF EL PASO COULD STILL
SEE A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS NICE DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH DRY SLOT IS FILLING BACK
IN SOMEWHAT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE
(HIGH DEWPOINTS) STILL EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EAST...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S. HI RES
MODELS SHOW MOST SURFACE MOISTURE OUT EAST OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST. HRRR SHOWS MOISTURE STILL FROM ABOUT ALAMOGORDO TO SIERRA
BLANCA AT 18Z...SO LEFT POPS IN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (SAC MTNS)
WITHIN THIS AREA. BY AROUND 21Z MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED OUT OF THE
CWA. THIS IS USUALLY ABOUT THE TIME THE LOWLANDS CAN START FIRING
OFF. BREEZY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. WILL LET FIRE WX DESK DECIDE ON UPGRADE TO RED FLAG A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING. DRYLINE/MOISTURE REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AGAIN SATURDAY THOUGH NAM12 AND GFS BOTH SHOW MOISTURE UNDULATING
BACK INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY SO KEPT LOW POP IN THERE. BROAD SCALE LIFT
FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COULD HELP KICK THE STORMS OFF. STORMS
ON EITHER DAY WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT DECENT
SPEED SHEAR COULD PROVIDE SOME BACK BUILDING STORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE LOWLANDS SEEING ANOTHER BATCH OF
90 DEGREE DAYS. NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN DRAW THE DRYLINE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GFS BRINGS
THE DRYLINE AND MOISTURE BACK WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (ECMWF
KEEPS IT EAST OF EL PASO). FOR NOW LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SINCE
THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN MAKING IT TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IF NOT
FURTHER WEST. STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CAPES POINT TOWARD A SMALL RISK OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST HALF OF THE CWA. RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...THOUGH DRYING BEGINS FROM THE
WEST AGAIN. STORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO EAST OF EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD WITH
P6SM SKC INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY SCT-BKN250 AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 18Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EXCEED 12 KTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS COMMON AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SLOWLY TRACKS TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR BACK TO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A
DROP IN MIN RH VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE CRITICAL RANGE ACROSS ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH TODAY
AND TOMORROW. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE MET IN A FEW LOWLAND
SPOTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN FIRE ZONES. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WETTING PRECIP BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  61  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           87  61  84  52  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              87  50  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              85  53  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              62  39  59  37  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  50  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             77  44  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  85  46  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               84  45  76  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      89  61  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               84  55  81  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            89  62  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  88  58  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            89  56  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  57  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           84  48  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   85  49  80  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                83  52  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               86  57  82  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 70  46  69  42  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               72  42  70  40  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                71  44  68  42  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 74  41  71  40  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               81  46  80  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               84  45  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            76  40  70  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  78  43  73  41  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   81  40  75  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              78  38  75  36  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 78  45  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  45  78  46  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 86  44  80  45  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  43  81  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              78  44  77  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ111.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
210 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INTERACTING WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...SPREADING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. A
FEW STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHED FURTHER
WEST OVERNIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED...AND LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
HELPED LIMIT THE EASTWARD RETROGRESSION. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK RANGE TO
RIGHT AROUND DEMING AND COLUMBUS. RADAR THIN LINE EXTENDS FROM
JUST SE OF COLUMBUS ESE TO SAMALAYUCA...AND THIS IS LIKELY THE
FRONT. FROM THERE IT IS LIKELY BANKED UP AGAINST HIGHER TERRAIN SW
OF THE RIO GRANDE.

MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHARPLY DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ENTERING FAR SW NEW MEXICO...SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO APPARENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY RESPECTIVELY.

JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION INITIATE ALONG THE BLACK RANGE
AND PARTS OF SIERRA COUNTY. EXPECT CELLS TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH WITHIN INSTABILITY PLUME ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NEXT HOUR.
SEVERAL WRF RUNS AND HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SITUATION WELL
DUE TO WELL- DEFINED BOUNDARIES AND CLEAR UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
EXPECT STORMS TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
EASTWARD...INITIALLY ALONG THE BLACK RANGE INTO EASTERN LUNA
COUNTY...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN 4
PM AND 6 PM AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH
0-6KM SHEAR AOA 60 KNOTS AND 40 KNOTS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. WET BULB
ZERO VALUES AROUND 12KFT MSL SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE -10 TO -20 C
LAYER ARE NOT TERRIBLY STEEP...WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR. SFC-
BASED CAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE
MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE FRONT.

MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL (BUT LIKELY ON
THE LOWER END OF SEVERE CRITERIA DUE TO LIMITED LAPSE RATES). LCL
HEIGHTS AROUND 7000 FT MSL ARE A LITTLE LOW FOR AROUND THESE
PARTS...BUT LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER IS LIMITED.
STILL...A QUICK-SPINUP FUNNEL IS OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IN
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CELLS EARLY ON.

PW VALUES AT OR AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUGGESTS HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE...BUT A STEADY STORM MOTION SHOULD LIMIT FLASH
FLOOD THREAT TO LOCALIZED/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WHERE RAINFALL RATES
ARE MORE OF AN ISSUE.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 10PM WITH
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN PUSH WELL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
OVERNIGHT... MAINLY AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...BUT IT WILL BE
RAZOR-THIN AND QUICKLY MIX OUT TO THE EAST. STILL...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE FAR TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND A
SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR
EASTERN HUDSPETH OR OTERO COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MOVES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MID-80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARM-UP TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT BACK TO
THE RIO GRANDE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...
BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO CONTINENTAL DIVIDE: TIL 06Z
WINDS 120-160/13G23KTS SCT-BKN040 SCT-BKN100-140 SCT-BKN200-250
ISOLD TO SCT AREAS BKN020 BKN040 OVC-70 3SM -TSRAGS. 06Z-15Z:
SCT040-060 SCT100-140 SCT 200-250 WINDS 120/10KTS...AFT 15Z:
FEW-SCT070 FEW-SCT150. WINDS 23015G25KTS. LGT TO MDT MECHANICAL
TURBC OVR/NR MTNS BLO 15K FT MSL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF A TCS-DMN LINE.
A FEW OF STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE NMEX BOOT HEEL MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS THIS AFTN IN A SMALL AREA NEAR/ON THE AZ BORDER BUT
GENERALLY NOT MEETING TIME REQUIREMENTS FOR RED FLAG. DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MEET IN ZONE 11 AND NEAR RED FLAG IN
OTHER LOWLANDS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MEMORIAL DAY AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  88  62  84  58 /  30   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  85  61  82  53 /  40  10  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              50  84  50  79  50 /  30   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  83  53  80  51 /  50   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              38  59  39  55  39 /  50  10  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  80  50  77  49 /  30   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  75  43  66  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  83  46  78  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  82  45  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      60  88  62  83  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               51  85  56  82  51 /  50  10  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            59  90  63  87  56 /  30   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  80  58  75  53 /  40   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  56  89  59  85  55 /  30   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  88  56  82  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  83  57  79  54 /  30   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  82  48  78  46 /  30   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   51  83  49  78  48 /  30   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  81  52  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               55  84  57  80  54 /  40   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  67  46  65  44 /  50  10  10   0   0
MESCALERO               41  69  42  66  42 /  50  10  10   0   0
TIMBERON                43  68  44  64  44 /  50  10  10   0   0
WINSTON                 42  71  41  67  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               45  79  45  76  46 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  82  45  78  46 /  30   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  73  41  66  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  42  75  42  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   43  79  43  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  76  35  71  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 45  76  44  71  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  80  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 46  84  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  83  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  76  43  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ111.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 20-NOVLAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211009
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
409 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE INCREASED
CLOUDS WILL AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR MEMORIAL DAY AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST TO AS
FAR AS DEMING BEHIND A WESTWARD MOVING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE JUMPED FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 50S
IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW INTO THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PRECIPTABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE TO AN INCH OR BETTER WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TO THE WEST...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS APPROACHING THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING AND LIFT
TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO MAY SEE SOME
ACTIVITY TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRADDLING THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM DEMING TO TRUTH OR
CONSEQUENCES DOWN TO EL PASO. AREAS FURTHER EAST MAY SEE MORE RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE GETTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. MORE LIKELY A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. MORE GENERAL
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND
PEA SIZED HAIL. AS THE DAY AND EVENING PROGRESS THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND
FROM THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PUSH BACK TO
THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY WHICH WILL REMAIN NEAR A SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS STREAMING INTO TEXAS.

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER
AND WINDIER SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BOTH DAYS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

ON MONDAY...MEMORIAL DAY...A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE AFFECT
FROM THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AS THE CORE OF THE LOW
MOVES OVER THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FLOWS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO MARK THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE ESE10G17KTS WITH SKY CONDS OF SCT LCL BKN 040-060
100-140 AND 200-250. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA -TSRA BKN040 BKN100 VSBY 4-6SM
TOPS350 THRU 06Z. SE FLOW SFC TO 050/060 AGL THEN SOUTHWEST ABOVE.
OCNL LGT MECHANICAL LGT TURBC ONR MTNS BLO 15KFT MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. MEMORIAL DAY
WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERION IN SOUTHERN
HIDALGO COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAKE MINIMAL REQUIRES IN
SOUTHERN HIDALGO AND LUNA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH WILL
RUN FROM 7% TO 15% ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY INCREASING ABOUT 8% OVERALL
THURSDAY EXCEPT UP SOME 30% ABOVE 7500 FEET SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  57  87  62  84 /  30  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           73  53  86  57  81 /  40  30   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  49  83  52  80 /  20  20   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              76  52  82  55  80 /  40  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  38  63  40  61 /  80  60   0  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  50  80  52  78 /  30  20   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  44  72  44  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  47  82  48  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  46  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  57  87  61  83 /  30  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               71  51  85  55  82 /  50  40   0  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  57  90  61  86 /  30  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              70  52  80  57  77 /  40  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  80  55  88  59  84 /  30  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            79  53  86  57  82 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          75  54  82  57  80 /  30  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           77  47  82  50  79 /  30  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   79  49  82  51  80 /  30  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  52  82  53  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               73  54  83  58  80 /  40  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  44  68  47  67 /  80  60   0  20   0
MESCALERO               62  41  69  44  67 /  70  70   0  10   0
TIMBERON                60  43  68  46  66 /  60  40   0  10   0
WINSTON                 70  42  70  42  69 /  40  20   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               77  46  78  47  76 /  30  20   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               77  46  82  48  79 /  30  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            71  42  71  42  68 /  20  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  74  43  75  43  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  43  78  44  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              77  38  75  39  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 74  45  76  46  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  80  47  80  47  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  46  82  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  46  81  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              76  44  76  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211009
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
409 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE INCREASED
CLOUDS WILL AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR MEMORIAL DAY AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST TO AS
FAR AS DEMING BEHIND A WESTWARD MOVING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE JUMPED FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 50S
IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW INTO THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PRECIPTABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE TO AN INCH OR BETTER WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TO THE WEST...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS APPROACHING THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING AND LIFT
TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO MAY SEE SOME
ACTIVITY TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRADDLING THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM DEMING TO TRUTH OR
CONSEQUENCES DOWN TO EL PASO. AREAS FURTHER EAST MAY SEE MORE RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE GETTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. MORE LIKELY A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. MORE GENERAL
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND
PEA SIZED HAIL. AS THE DAY AND EVENING PROGRESS THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND
FROM THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PUSH BACK TO
THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY WHICH WILL REMAIN NEAR A SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS STREAMING INTO TEXAS.

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER
AND WINDIER SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BOTH DAYS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

ON MONDAY...MEMORIAL DAY...A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE AFFECT
FROM THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AS THE CORE OF THE LOW
MOVES OVER THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FLOWS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO MARK THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE ESE10G17KTS WITH SKY CONDS OF SCT LCL BKN 040-060
100-140 AND 200-250. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA -TSRA BKN040 BKN100 VSBY 4-6SM
TOPS350 THRU 06Z. SE FLOW SFC TO 050/060 AGL THEN SOUTHWEST ABOVE.
OCNL LGT MECHANICAL LGT TURBC ONR MTNS BLO 15KFT MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. MEMORIAL DAY
WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERION IN SOUTHERN
HIDALGO COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAKE MINIMAL REQUIRES IN
SOUTHERN HIDALGO AND LUNA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH WILL
RUN FROM 7% TO 15% ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY INCREASING ABOUT 8% OVERALL
THURSDAY EXCEPT UP SOME 30% ABOVE 7500 FEET SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  57  87  62  84 /  30  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           73  53  86  57  81 /  40  30   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  49  83  52  80 /  20  20   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              76  52  82  55  80 /  40  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  38  63  40  61 /  80  60   0  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  50  80  52  78 /  30  20   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  44  72  44  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  47  82  48  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  46  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  57  87  61  83 /  30  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               71  51  85  55  82 /  50  40   0  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  57  90  61  86 /  30  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              70  52  80  57  77 /  40  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  80  55  88  59  84 /  30  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            79  53  86  57  82 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          75  54  82  57  80 /  30  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           77  47  82  50  79 /  30  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   79  49  82  51  80 /  30  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  52  82  53  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               73  54  83  58  80 /  40  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  44  68  47  67 /  80  60   0  20   0
MESCALERO               62  41  69  44  67 /  70  70   0  10   0
TIMBERON                60  43  68  46  66 /  60  40   0  10   0
WINSTON                 70  42  70  42  69 /  40  20   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               77  46  78  47  76 /  30  20   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               77  46  82  48  79 /  30  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            71  42  71  42  68 /  20  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  74  43  75  43  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  43  78  44  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              77  38  75  39  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 74  45  76  46  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  80  47  80  47  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  46  82  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  46  81  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              76  44  76  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202116
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
316 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. TOMORROW A
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY. FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE DRY...WARM AND BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE AND THE BORDERLAND COULD
SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALLOW
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS EVENING`S
WEATHER.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED
BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH FURTHER WEST INTO THE CWA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OFF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA. THE COMBO OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE INDICATING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

STORM ACTIVITY WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KICKS BACK IN
AND ALL MOISTURE IS PUSHED COMPLETELY EAST OF THE AREA. THE REGION
WILL BE LEFT WITH DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INLAND AND BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY WERE SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST COULD SLOSH WEST AND GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS THAT COULD REACH THE WINDY CATEGORY. THE
BORDERLAND WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH LIGHTER WINDS UNDER A
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND...DRY AND WARM
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS UNDER THE  SHORT WAVE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW DRAGS MOISTURE UP FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z...
SOUTH AND WEST OF A ELP-TCS LINE. FEW-SCT 060 100 AND SCT-BKN
200-250. WINDS GNLY SW10G17KTS THRU PD. NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ELP-TCS LINE...SCT060 100 SCT-BKN200-250 AND WINDS SW10G17KTS. DRY
LINE TO PUSH WEST AFT 06Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO ESE10G17KTS WITH
SCT LCL BKN 040-060 100-140 AND 200-250. ISOLD -SHRA -TSRA BKN040
BKN100 VSBY 4-6SM TOPS350. SE FLOW SFC TO 050/060 AGL THEN SOUTHWEST
ABOVE. OCNL LGT MECHANICAL LGT TURBC ONR MTNS BLO 15KFT MSL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND WARM DAY SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST WILL SET UP A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG
WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE
SUNNY AND WARM WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERION IN SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAKE MINIMAL REQUIRES IN SOUTHERN HIDALGO AND
LUNA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH WILL RUN FROM 7% TO 15% ALL
AREAS WEDNESDAY INCREASING ABOUT 8% OVERALL THURSDAY EXCEPT UP SOME
30% ABOVE 7500 FEET SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 61  84  59  89  61 /   0  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  78  55  88  58 /   0  40  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  83  51  84  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              55  81  53  84  55 /   0  30  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  58  40  62  40 /  10  40  50   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  81  51  82  52 /   0  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             47  75  45  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  50  83  48  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  83  47  81  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      61  84  59  88  60 /   0  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  76  53  87  55 /  10  50  50   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            60  84  58  92  60 /   0  20  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              57  77  54  82  56 /   0  30  20   0   0
FABENS                  58  85  57  90  58 /   0  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  84  55  87  56 /   0  20   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  81  56  84  57 /   0  20  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  82  49  84  51 /   0  20  10   0   0
HATCH                   52  83  50  84  52 /   0  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                54  83  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               58  79  55  85  57 /   0  30  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 48  61  46  70  47 /  20  60  60   0   0
MESCALERO               45  67  43  70  44 /  10  40  50   0   0
TIMBERON                47  64  45  69  46 /  10  40  40   0   0
WINSTON                 46  73  43  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               50  81  47  80  47 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  82  48  84  49 /   0  20  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            45  73  43  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  46  77  44  76  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   47  81  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              41  78  38  77  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  77  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  50  82  47  81  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 50  84  47  83  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  83  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  78  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
PAZOS/NOVLAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202116
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
316 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. TOMORROW A
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY. FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE DRY...WARM AND BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE AND THE BORDERLAND COULD
SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALLOW
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS EVENING`S
WEATHER.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED
BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH FURTHER WEST INTO THE CWA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OFF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA. THE COMBO OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE INDICATING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

STORM ACTIVITY WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KICKS BACK IN
AND ALL MOISTURE IS PUSHED COMPLETELY EAST OF THE AREA. THE REGION
WILL BE LEFT WITH DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INLAND AND BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY WERE SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST COULD SLOSH WEST AND GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS THAT COULD REACH THE WINDY CATEGORY. THE
BORDERLAND WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH LIGHTER WINDS UNDER A
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND...DRY AND WARM
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS UNDER THE  SHORT WAVE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW DRAGS MOISTURE UP FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z...
SOUTH AND WEST OF A ELP-TCS LINE. FEW-SCT 060 100 AND SCT-BKN
200-250. WINDS GNLY SW10G17KTS THRU PD. NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ELP-TCS LINE...SCT060 100 SCT-BKN200-250 AND WINDS SW10G17KTS. DRY
LINE TO PUSH WEST AFT 06Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO ESE10G17KTS WITH
SCT LCL BKN 040-060 100-140 AND 200-250. ISOLD -SHRA -TSRA BKN040
BKN100 VSBY 4-6SM TOPS350. SE FLOW SFC TO 050/060 AGL THEN SOUTHWEST
ABOVE. OCNL LGT MECHANICAL LGT TURBC ONR MTNS BLO 15KFT MSL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AND WARM DAY SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST WILL SET UP A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG
WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE
SUNNY AND WARM WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERION IN SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAKE MINIMAL REQUIRES IN SOUTHERN HIDALGO AND
LUNA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH WILL RUN FROM 7% TO 15% ALL
AREAS WEDNESDAY INCREASING ABOUT 8% OVERALL THURSDAY EXCEPT UP SOME
30% ABOVE 7500 FEET SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 61  84  59  89  61 /   0  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  78  55  88  58 /   0  40  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  83  51  84  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              55  81  53  84  55 /   0  30  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  58  40  62  40 /  10  40  50   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  81  51  82  52 /   0  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             47  75  45  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  50  83  48  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  83  47  81  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      61  84  59  88  60 /   0  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  76  53  87  55 /  10  50  50   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            60  84  58  92  60 /   0  20  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              57  77  54  82  56 /   0  30  20   0   0
FABENS                  58  85  57  90  58 /   0  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  84  55  87  56 /   0  20   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  81  56  84  57 /   0  20  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  82  49  84  51 /   0  20  10   0   0
HATCH                   52  83  50  84  52 /   0  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                54  83  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               58  79  55  85  57 /   0  30  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 48  61  46  70  47 /  20  60  60   0   0
MESCALERO               45  67  43  70  44 /  10  40  50   0   0
TIMBERON                47  64  45  69  46 /  10  40  40   0   0
WINSTON                 46  73  43  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               50  81  47  80  47 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  82  48  84  49 /   0  20  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            45  73  43  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  46  77  44  76  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   47  81  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              41  78  38  77  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  77  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  50  82  47  81  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 50  84  47  83  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  83  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  78  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
PAZOS/NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 200932
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
332 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY
AND WARM WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS TODAY. A MODERATE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SOME VARIABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE VERY MUCH BEYOND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER TODAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA AS PART OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PENETRATE MUCH PAST THE RIO GRANDE WITH AREAS TO THE WEST
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY LIFT
FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND OTERO COUNTY WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH END A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL RETREAT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE. A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER
FAR WEST TEXAS WILL HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT MUCH BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
WEEKEND THERE WILL NOT BE VERY MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS RESULT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES ON SATURDAY AND
WESTERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER...WHICH MEANS LOWER TO MID
80S FOR THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND NEXT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM
AS A RESULT OF A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY
AND WINDS WILL BE MILDLY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z-21/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PD. SKY CONDS WILL BE
FEW-SCT250. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...LOW
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS OVER AREAS WEST THE RIO GRANDE WILL MAY
RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  61  84  60  89 /   0   0  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           86  57  78  56  88 /   0  10  30  20   0
LAS CRUCES              86  53  83  52  84 /   0   0  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              85  55  81  54  84 /   0   0  30  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              66  42  61  41  64 /   0  10  40  30   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   84  54  81  52  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             77  47  75  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  86  50  83  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               85  51  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      89  61  84  60  88 /   0   0  20   0   0
DELL CITY               88  56  76  54  87 /   0  10  40  40   0
FORT HANCOCK            91  60  84  59  92 /   0   0  20  20   0
LOMA LINDA              81  57  77  55  82 /   0   0  30  20   0
FABENS                  89  58  85  58  90 /   0   0  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            88  57  84  56  87 /   0   0  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  57  81  57  84 /   0   0  20  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           86  52  82  50  84 /   0   0  20   0   0
HATCH                   86  52  83  51  84 /   0   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                86  54  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               85  58  79  56  85 /   0   0  30  20   0
MAYHILL                 72  48  62  47  70 /   0  20  60  40   0
MESCALERO               73  45  68  44  70 /   0  10  40  30   0
TIMBERON                71  47  65  46  69 /   0  10  40  30   0
WINSTON                 75  46  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               84  50  81  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               86  50  82  49  84 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            76  45  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  79  46  77  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   83  47  81  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  41  78  39  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 80  49  77  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  85  50  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 87  50  84  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  49  83  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              81  49  78  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 200932
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
332 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY
AND WARM WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS TODAY. A MODERATE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SOME VARIABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE VERY MUCH BEYOND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER TODAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA AS PART OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PENETRATE MUCH PAST THE RIO GRANDE WITH AREAS TO THE WEST
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY LIFT
FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND OTERO COUNTY WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH END A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL RETREAT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE. A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER
FAR WEST TEXAS WILL HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT MUCH BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
WEEKEND THERE WILL NOT BE VERY MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS RESULT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES ON SATURDAY AND
WESTERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER...WHICH MEANS LOWER TO MID
80S FOR THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND NEXT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM
AS A RESULT OF A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY
AND WINDS WILL BE MILDLY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z-21/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PD. SKY CONDS WILL BE
FEW-SCT250. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...LOW
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS OVER AREAS WEST THE RIO GRANDE WILL MAY
RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  61  84  60  89 /   0   0  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           86  57  78  56  88 /   0  10  30  20   0
LAS CRUCES              86  53  83  52  84 /   0   0  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              85  55  81  54  84 /   0   0  30  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              66  42  61  41  64 /   0  10  40  30   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   84  54  81  52  82 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             77  47  75  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  86  50  83  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               85  51  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      89  61  84  60  88 /   0   0  20   0   0
DELL CITY               88  56  76  54  87 /   0  10  40  40   0
FORT HANCOCK            91  60  84  59  92 /   0   0  20  20   0
LOMA LINDA              81  57  77  55  82 /   0   0  30  20   0
FABENS                  89  58  85  58  90 /   0   0  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            88  57  84  56  87 /   0   0  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  57  81  57  84 /   0   0  20  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           86  52  82  50  84 /   0   0  20   0   0
HATCH                   86  52  83  51  84 /   0   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                86  54  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               85  58  79  56  85 /   0   0  30  20   0
MAYHILL                 72  48  62  47  70 /   0  20  60  40   0
MESCALERO               73  45  68  44  70 /   0  10  40  30   0
TIMBERON                71  47  65  46  69 /   0  10  40  30   0
WINSTON                 75  46  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               84  50  81  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               86  50  82  49  84 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            76  45  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  79  46  77  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   83  47  81  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  41  78  39  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 80  49  77  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  85  50  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 87  50  84  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  49  83  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              81  49  78  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192055
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
255 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
BORDERLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVENING WE WILL HAVE
BREEZES OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. THEN ON THURSDAY A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE DRY...WARM AND BREEZY ONCE AGAIN...BEAUTIFUL
COOKOUT WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY PUSHING ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY FURTHER EAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE
BORDERLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA RELAXING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL START TO PUSH WEST INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE
COLLISION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
PULLING ALL MOISTURE BACK EAST OF THE AREA AND LEAVING THE AREA WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SATURDAY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN
TO TRACK EAST...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
THE ONLY THREAT BEING STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS THAT COULD REACH
THE WINDY CATEGORY. THE BORDERLAND WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH
LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE GOOD
COOKOUT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z...
P6SM SKC THRU 12Z...THEN P6SM FEW-SCT200-250. W TO SW WINDS OF
15-20G30KTS WILL DECREASE BY 04Z TO BLO 10KTS AND PICK UP OUT OF THE
SW AFT 18Z TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
AS A COUPLE MORE PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CA AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE LOWLANDS. BESIDES ANOTHER
MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE EAST SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ON
THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  88  61  86  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  86  56  81  56 /   0   0   0  20  20
LAS CRUCES              49  86  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  85  55  84  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              41  63  43  61  41 /   0   0   0  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  84  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  77  47  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  86  50  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  85  51  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  89  60  86  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
DELL CITY               53  88  55  80  54 /   0   0   0  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            57  91  59  86  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
LOMA LINDA              54  81  57  79  55 /   0   0   0  20  10
FABENS                  55  89  58  87  58 /   0   0   0  10   0
SANTA TERESA            53  88  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  86  57  83  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           47  86  51  84  50 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   49  86  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  86  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               55  85  57  82  56 /   0   0   0  20  20
MAYHILL                 47  72  47  66  47 /   0   0  10  40  40
MESCALERO               44  73  44  70  44 /   0   0   0  30  30
TIMBERON                46  71  47  68  46 /   0   0   0  30  30
WINSTON                 42  75  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  86  50  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  76  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  44  79  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   44  83  46  82  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  80  40  79  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  80  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  85  50  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 46  87  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  86  49  84  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  81  49  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

28/26






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192055
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
255 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
BORDERLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVENING WE WILL HAVE
BREEZES OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. THEN ON THURSDAY A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE DRY...WARM AND BREEZY ONCE AGAIN...BEAUTIFUL
COOKOUT WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY PUSHING ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY FURTHER EAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE
BORDERLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA RELAXING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL START TO PUSH WEST INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE
COLLISION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
PULLING ALL MOISTURE BACK EAST OF THE AREA AND LEAVING THE AREA WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SATURDAY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN
TO TRACK EAST...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
THE ONLY THREAT BEING STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS THAT COULD REACH
THE WINDY CATEGORY. THE BORDERLAND WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH
LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE GOOD
COOKOUT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z...
P6SM SKC THRU 12Z...THEN P6SM FEW-SCT200-250. W TO SW WINDS OF
15-20G30KTS WILL DECREASE BY 04Z TO BLO 10KTS AND PICK UP OUT OF THE
SW AFT 18Z TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
AS A COUPLE MORE PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CA AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE LOWLANDS. BESIDES ANOTHER
MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE EAST SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ON
THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  88  61  86  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  86  56  81  56 /   0   0   0  20  20
LAS CRUCES              49  86  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  85  55  84  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              41  63  43  61  41 /   0   0   0  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  84  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  77  47  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  86  50  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  85  51  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  89  60  86  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
DELL CITY               53  88  55  80  54 /   0   0   0  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            57  91  59  86  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
LOMA LINDA              54  81  57  79  55 /   0   0   0  20  10
FABENS                  55  89  58  87  58 /   0   0   0  10   0
SANTA TERESA            53  88  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  86  57  83  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           47  86  51  84  50 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   49  86  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  86  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               55  85  57  82  56 /   0   0   0  20  20
MAYHILL                 47  72  47  66  47 /   0   0  10  40  40
MESCALERO               44  73  44  70  44 /   0   0   0  30  30
TIMBERON                46  71  47  68  46 /   0   0   0  30  30
WINSTON                 42  75  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  86  50  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  76  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  44  79  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   44  83  46  82  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  80  40  79  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  80  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  85  50  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 46  87  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  86  49  84  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  81  49  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

28/26







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192055
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
255 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
BORDERLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVENING WE WILL HAVE
BREEZES OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. THEN ON THURSDAY A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE DRY...WARM AND BREEZY ONCE AGAIN...BEAUTIFUL
COOKOUT WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY PUSHING ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY FURTHER EAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE
BORDERLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA RELAXING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL START TO PUSH WEST INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE
COLLISION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
PULLING ALL MOISTURE BACK EAST OF THE AREA AND LEAVING THE AREA WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SATURDAY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN
TO TRACK EAST...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
THE ONLY THREAT BEING STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS THAT COULD REACH
THE WINDY CATEGORY. THE BORDERLAND WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH
LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE GOOD
COOKOUT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z...
P6SM SKC THRU 12Z...THEN P6SM FEW-SCT200-250. W TO SW WINDS OF
15-20G30KTS WILL DECREASE BY 04Z TO BLO 10KTS AND PICK UP OUT OF THE
SW AFT 18Z TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
AS A COUPLE MORE PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CA AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE LOWLANDS. BESIDES ANOTHER
MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE EAST SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ON
THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  88  61  86  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  86  56  81  56 /   0   0   0  20  20
LAS CRUCES              49  86  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  85  55  84  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              41  63  43  61  41 /   0   0   0  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  84  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  77  47  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  86  50  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  85  51  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  89  60  86  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
DELL CITY               53  88  55  80  54 /   0   0   0  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            57  91  59  86  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
LOMA LINDA              54  81  57  79  55 /   0   0   0  20  10
FABENS                  55  89  58  87  58 /   0   0   0  10   0
SANTA TERESA            53  88  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  86  57  83  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           47  86  51  84  50 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   49  86  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  86  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               55  85  57  82  56 /   0   0   0  20  20
MAYHILL                 47  72  47  66  47 /   0   0  10  40  40
MESCALERO               44  73  44  70  44 /   0   0   0  30  30
TIMBERON                46  71  47  68  46 /   0   0   0  30  30
WINSTON                 42  75  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  86  50  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  76  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  44  79  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   44  83  46  82  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  80  40  79  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  80  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  85  50  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 46  87  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  86  49  84  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  81  49  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

28/26






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192055
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
255 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
BORDERLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVENING WE WILL HAVE
BREEZES OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. THEN ON THURSDAY A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE DRY...WARM AND BREEZY ONCE AGAIN...BEAUTIFUL
COOKOUT WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY PUSHING ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY FURTHER EAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE
BORDERLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA RELAXING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL START TO PUSH WEST INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE
COLLISION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
PULLING ALL MOISTURE BACK EAST OF THE AREA AND LEAVING THE AREA WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SATURDAY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN
TO TRACK EAST...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
THE ONLY THREAT BEING STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS THAT COULD REACH
THE WINDY CATEGORY. THE BORDERLAND WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH
LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE GOOD
COOKOUT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z...
P6SM SKC THRU 12Z...THEN P6SM FEW-SCT200-250. W TO SW WINDS OF
15-20G30KTS WILL DECREASE BY 04Z TO BLO 10KTS AND PICK UP OUT OF THE
SW AFT 18Z TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
AS A COUPLE MORE PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CA AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE LOWLANDS. BESIDES ANOTHER
MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE EAST SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ON
THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  88  61  86  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  86  56  81  56 /   0   0   0  20  20
LAS CRUCES              49  86  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  85  55  84  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              41  63  43  61  41 /   0   0   0  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  84  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  77  47  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  86  50  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  85  51  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  89  60  86  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
DELL CITY               53  88  55  80  54 /   0   0   0  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            57  91  59  86  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
LOMA LINDA              54  81  57  79  55 /   0   0   0  20  10
FABENS                  55  89  58  87  58 /   0   0   0  10   0
SANTA TERESA            53  88  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  86  57  83  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           47  86  51  84  50 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   49  86  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  86  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               55  85  57  82  56 /   0   0   0  20  20
MAYHILL                 47  72  47  66  47 /   0   0  10  40  40
MESCALERO               44  73  44  70  44 /   0   0   0  30  30
TIMBERON                46  71  47  68  46 /   0   0   0  30  30
WINSTON                 42  75  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  86  50  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  76  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  44  79  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   44  83  46  82  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  80  40  79  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  80  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  85  50  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 46  87  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  86  49  84  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  81  49  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

28/26







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