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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF AREA
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BUT START TO WARMUP AND GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE
NAM THE WETTEST AND THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSER TO EACH OTHER. WILL
LEAN CLOSER TO THE LATTER FOR QPF AMOUNTS SINCE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING CURRENT PRECIP AMOUNTS TODAY. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN
THE SACS AND NOW THEY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND LOST WHAT
FELL LAST NIGHT. THINK SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THE
LOWER LEVEL PUSH OF COLDER AIR THAT WAS UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF SACS IS GETTING PUSHED OUT...SO THINK LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE
7500-8000 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED
SNOW AMOUNTS TO 4-8 ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET IN BOTH THE SACS AND THE
GILA WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS BELOW THAT...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER LEVEL SNOWS SUNDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS AND
TEMPS ALOFT FINALLY COOL BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS GOING AS IS BUT LOWER AMOUNTS.
OVER THE LOWLANDS...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BEST CHANCES LOOK FURTHER WEST
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH FIRST 2
PERIODS...SO HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW FOR TOMORROW ON HIGHS.

AS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH INTO MEXICO...LIFT OVER AREA EXITS AND
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WNW ONE. THERE WILL BE ONE LAST
PUSH OF A BACK DOOR FRONT FOR SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT SHOULD START TO SEE WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AS
SOME RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL NOT GET MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT 3-5 DEGREES LOOKS ABOUT AVERAGE. ECMWF A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A BACK DOOR THU WHERE GFS JUST BARELY GETS
FRONT INTO ERN CWA AND QUICKLY PUSHES IT BACK TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY THE REGION WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE RESULTING
IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA BKN-OVC010-020. PERIODS OF -RA WILL
RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-5SM. BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH +RA RESULTING IN 1-2SM OVC005-008.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY UNUSUALLY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY
SINKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS IF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE BY LATER SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES REMAIN LIKELY. AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY A FEW ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AN ADDITIONAL COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE EAST SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VERY HIGH MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP OFF A BIT NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL
OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS THAT VENT
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. IN ADDITION TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WHEN WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 40  55  41  55  35 /  90  50  30  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  58  39  52  33 / 100  50  30  20  10
LAS CRUCES              40  54  40  53  35 /  90  50  30  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              39  52  36  53  32 / 100  50  30  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              29  38  29  37  23 / 100  80  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   38  51  37  53  35 /  90  50  30  10   0
SILVER CITY             36  50  37  52  33 / 100  60  40  20  10
DEMING                  38  54  38  54  33 /  90  50  30  20  10
LORDSBURG               40  53  37  56  32 /  90  60  30  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  55  41  56  37 /  90  50  30  20   0
DELL CITY               42  55  39  51  30 / 100  50  30  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            42  56  40  56  36 /  90  50  30  20  10
LOMA LINDA              37  51  40  51  33 / 100  50  30  20  10
FABENS                  41  57  42  54  34 /  90  50  30  20  10
SANTA TERESA            40  54  40  54  35 /  90  50  30  20  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          40  55  41  54  36 /  90  50  30  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           40  54  37  54  31 /  90  50  30  20  10
HATCH                   39  56  39  56  34 /  90  50  30  20   0
COLUMBUS                41  53  40  54  37 /  90  50  30  20   0
OROGRANDE               40  54  39  53  34 /  90  50  30  20   0
MAYHILL                 32  41  34  43  27 / 100  70  40  20  20
MESCALERO               36  43  33  45  25 / 100  70  40  20  10
TIMBERON                35  42  33  45  28 / 100  70  30  20  10
WINSTON                 36  47  35  50  31 /  90  60  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               37  50  37  51  35 /  90  60  30  20   0
SPACEPORT               39  52  38  56  33 /  90  50  30  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            38  44  35  51  31 / 100  70  40  20  10
HURLEY                  38  51  37  52  33 /  90  60  40  20  10
CLIFF                   40  51  35  58  33 / 100  70  40  20  10
MULE CREEK              40  50  31  55  28 / 100  70  40  20  20
FAYWOOD                 38  49  39  52  35 / 100  60  30  20  10
ANIMAS                  41  55  38  57  32 /  90  60  40  20   0
HACHITA                 42  54  36  56  33 /  90  60  30  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          40  54  35  56  32 /  90  60  40  20  10
CLOVERDALE              40  52  39  55  34 / 100  60  40  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/27







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF AREA
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BUT START TO WARMUP AND GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE
NAM THE WETTEST AND THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSER TO EACH OTHER. WILL
LEAN CLOSER TO THE LATTER FOR QPF AMOUNTS SINCE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING CURRENT PRECIP AMOUNTS TODAY. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN
THE SACS AND NOW THEY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND LOST WHAT
FELL LAST NIGHT. THINK SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THE
LOWER LEVEL PUSH OF COLDER AIR THAT WAS UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF SACS IS GETTING PUSHED OUT...SO THINK LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE
7500-8000 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED
SNOW AMOUNTS TO 4-8 ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET IN BOTH THE SACS AND THE
GILA WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS BELOW THAT...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER LEVEL SNOWS SUNDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS AND
TEMPS ALOFT FINALLY COOL BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS GOING AS IS BUT LOWER AMOUNTS.
OVER THE LOWLANDS...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BEST CHANCES LOOK FURTHER WEST
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH FIRST 2
PERIODS...SO HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW FOR TOMORROW ON HIGHS.

AS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH INTO MEXICO...LIFT OVER AREA EXITS AND
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WNW ONE. THERE WILL BE ONE LAST
PUSH OF A BACK DOOR FRONT FOR SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT SHOULD START TO SEE WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AS
SOME RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL NOT GET MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT 3-5 DEGREES LOOKS ABOUT AVERAGE. ECMWF A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A BACK DOOR THU WHERE GFS JUST BARELY GETS
FRONT INTO ERN CWA AND QUICKLY PUSHES IT BACK TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY THE REGION WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE RESULTING
IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA BKN-OVC010-020. PERIODS OF -RA WILL
RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-5SM. BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH +RA RESULTING IN 1-2SM OVC005-008.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY UNUSUALLY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY
SINKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS IF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE BY LATER SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES REMAIN LIKELY. AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY A FEW ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AN ADDITIONAL COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE EAST SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VERY HIGH MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP OFF A BIT NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL
OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS THAT VENT
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. IN ADDITION TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WHEN WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 40  55  41  55  35 /  90  50  30  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  58  39  52  33 / 100  50  30  20  10
LAS CRUCES              40  54  40  53  35 /  90  50  30  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              39  52  36  53  32 / 100  50  30  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              29  38  29  37  23 / 100  80  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   38  51  37  53  35 /  90  50  30  10   0
SILVER CITY             36  50  37  52  33 / 100  60  40  20  10
DEMING                  38  54  38  54  33 /  90  50  30  20  10
LORDSBURG               40  53  37  56  32 /  90  60  30  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  55  41  56  37 /  90  50  30  20   0
DELL CITY               42  55  39  51  30 / 100  50  30  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            42  56  40  56  36 /  90  50  30  20  10
LOMA LINDA              37  51  40  51  33 / 100  50  30  20  10
FABENS                  41  57  42  54  34 /  90  50  30  20  10
SANTA TERESA            40  54  40  54  35 /  90  50  30  20  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          40  55  41  54  36 /  90  50  30  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           40  54  37  54  31 /  90  50  30  20  10
HATCH                   39  56  39  56  34 /  90  50  30  20   0
COLUMBUS                41  53  40  54  37 /  90  50  30  20   0
OROGRANDE               40  54  39  53  34 /  90  50  30  20   0
MAYHILL                 32  41  34  43  27 / 100  70  40  20  20
MESCALERO               36  43  33  45  25 / 100  70  40  20  10
TIMBERON                35  42  33  45  28 / 100  70  30  20  10
WINSTON                 36  47  35  50  31 /  90  60  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               37  50  37  51  35 /  90  60  30  20   0
SPACEPORT               39  52  38  56  33 /  90  50  30  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            38  44  35  51  31 / 100  70  40  20  10
HURLEY                  38  51  37  52  33 /  90  60  40  20  10
CLIFF                   40  51  35  58  33 / 100  70  40  20  10
MULE CREEK              40  50  31  55  28 / 100  70  40  20  20
FAYWOOD                 38  49  39  52  35 / 100  60  30  20  10
ANIMAS                  41  55  38  57  32 /  90  60  40  20   0
HACHITA                 42  54  36  56  33 /  90  60  30  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          40  54  35  56  32 /  90  60  40  20  10
CLOVERDALE              40  52  39  55  34 / 100  60  40  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/27






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 301105
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET COULD SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. FOR THE COMING WEEK WE WILL
BE SUNNY AND DRY. WE WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE WEEK...BUT WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN (AND SNOW) HAVE BEGUN. WE WILL BE WET (AND WHITE) FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS
OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA AND IT IS PUMPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. ALL THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO GIVE US AN EXTENDED TIME OF LOWLAND RAINS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOWS. THE RAINS IN THE LOWLANDS COULD ADD UP TO AN INCH
OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT SINCE IT WILL BE COMING DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
EXCEPT FOR MINOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IN THE MOUNTAINS WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 7K FEET. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL WAVER BETWEEN 6K AND 8K DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE BATTLES WITH THE
"WARMER" AIR OFF THE SURFACE. BASICALLY IT COMES DOWN TO THIS. IF
YOU LIVE BELOW 6K YOU WILL SEE LOTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
(UPWARDS OF AROUND AN INCH)...IF YOU LIVE ABOVE 8K FEET YOU WILL
SEE LOTS OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (UPWARDS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES). BUT IF YOU LIVE IN BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET IT WILL RAIN
SOME...IT WILL SNOW SOME AND IT WILL RAIN/SNOW MIX SOME.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE VARIOUS MODELS TRY AND BRING A DRY SLOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST 06Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW A MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AS PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT BOTH
MODELS STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH
THE NAM BEING ABOUT 60 MILES FURTHER EAST AS IT DROPS INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE CLOSER THE LOW IS THE MORE LIKELY THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. FOR NOW I`LL STICK THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH AGREES BETTER
WITH THE LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY WE
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE WILL WRAP UP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER SUNDAY THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DROPPED TO THE
SOUTH AND WE WILL BE IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE
US CLEAR SKIES BUT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-31/12Z
LOTS OF CLOUDS...LOTS OF RAIN...LOTS OF WIND...LOTS OF LOW
CEILINGS TODAY...NOT A GOOD DAY TO FLY IF YOU DON`T HAVE TO. WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIDE SPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATER IN
DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM TO GIVE US NUMEROUS LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL RUN FROM BKN010-030 WITH
STIFF EAST WINDS MOST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE AROUND
FROM P6SM TO 1SM IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVER NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE LOTS OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM COMBINES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE STRONG SIDE FROM THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE LOWLANDS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH AND SNOW TOTALS IN
THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE AROUND 10 INCHES ABOVE 7K FEET. ON SUNDAY
WILL SEE LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL
SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WE WILL
SEE A WARMING TREND DURING NEXT WEEK...BUT WE WILL STAY DRY WITH
LITTLE WIND PROBLEMS. MIN RH`S WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY HIGH TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT EVEN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE MIN
RH`S IN THE 40`S AND 50`S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 49  40  55  38  56 /  90  90  50  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           48  38  54  37  53 /  80 100  50  30  20
LAS CRUCES              47  38  53  38  54 /  90  90  50  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              48  36  52  34  54 /  90 100  50  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              38  28  39  25  41 / 100 100  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  36  50  35  54 /  80  90  50  30  10
SILVER CITY             45  36  48  35  53 /  90 100  60  40  20
DEMING                  47  37  52  36  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
LORDSBURG               49  38  53  35  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      49  42  55  41  57 /  90  90  50  30  20
DELL CITY               47  34  53  33  52 /  80 100  50  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            54  41  58  38  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
LOMA LINDA              45  36  50  38  52 /  90 100  50  30  20
FABENS                  51  38  55  36  55 /  80  90  50  30  20
SANTA TERESA            48  38  54  38  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          47  38  53  39  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           48  34  53  33  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
HATCH                   49  36  54  35  57 /  90  90  50  30  20
COLUMBUS                48  40  53  38  55 /  80  90  50  30  20
OROGRANDE               48  38  53  37  54 /  80  90  50  30  20
MAYHILL                 39  31  41  29  43 / 100 100  60  40  20
MESCALERO               41  29  42  27  45 / 100 100  60  40  20
TIMBERON                43  32  45  31  46 / 100 100  60  30  20
WINSTON                 42  33  44  32  49 /  80  90  60  30  10
HILLSBORO               46  36  48  37  52 /  80  90  50  30  20
SPACEPORT               48  35  52  34  57 /  90  90  50  30  10
LAKE ROBERTS            46  34  47  33  52 / 100 100  60  40  20
HURLEY                  45  34  48  35  53 /  90  90  50  40  20
CLIFF                   48  39  48  32  59 /  90  90  60  40  20
MULE CREEK              46  37  47  29  56 /  90 100  60  40  20
FAYWOOD                 45  36  48  37  53 /  90 100  50  30  20
ANIMAS                  52  38  55  36  58 /  80  90  50  30  20
HACHITA                 51  37  54  34  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  37  54  33  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
CLOVERDALE              54  40  54  37  56 /  90 100  60  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 301105
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET COULD SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. FOR THE COMING WEEK WE WILL
BE SUNNY AND DRY. WE WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE WEEK...BUT WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN (AND SNOW) HAVE BEGUN. WE WILL BE WET (AND WHITE) FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS
OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA AND IT IS PUMPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. ALL THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO GIVE US AN EXTENDED TIME OF LOWLAND RAINS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOWS. THE RAINS IN THE LOWLANDS COULD ADD UP TO AN INCH
OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT SINCE IT WILL BE COMING DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
EXCEPT FOR MINOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IN THE MOUNTAINS WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 7K FEET. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL WAVER BETWEEN 6K AND 8K DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE BATTLES WITH THE
"WARMER" AIR OFF THE SURFACE. BASICALLY IT COMES DOWN TO THIS. IF
YOU LIVE BELOW 6K YOU WILL SEE LOTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
(UPWARDS OF AROUND AN INCH)...IF YOU LIVE ABOVE 8K FEET YOU WILL
SEE LOTS OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (UPWARDS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES). BUT IF YOU LIVE IN BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET IT WILL RAIN
SOME...IT WILL SNOW SOME AND IT WILL RAIN/SNOW MIX SOME.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE VARIOUS MODELS TRY AND BRING A DRY SLOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST 06Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW A MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AS PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT BOTH
MODELS STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH
THE NAM BEING ABOUT 60 MILES FURTHER EAST AS IT DROPS INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE CLOSER THE LOW IS THE MORE LIKELY THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. FOR NOW I`LL STICK THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH AGREES BETTER
WITH THE LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY WE
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART WE WILL WRAP UP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER SUNDAY THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DROPPED TO THE
SOUTH AND WE WILL BE IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE
US CLEAR SKIES BUT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-31/12Z
LOTS OF CLOUDS...LOTS OF RAIN...LOTS OF WIND...LOTS OF LOW
CEILINGS TODAY...NOT A GOOD DAY TO FLY IF YOU DON`T HAVE TO. WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIDE SPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATER IN
DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM TO GIVE US NUMEROUS LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL RUN FROM BKN010-030 WITH
STIFF EAST WINDS MOST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE AROUND
FROM P6SM TO 1SM IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVER NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE LOTS OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM COMBINES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE STRONG SIDE FROM THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE LOWLANDS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH AND SNOW TOTALS IN
THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE AROUND 10 INCHES ABOVE 7K FEET. ON SUNDAY
WILL SEE LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL
SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WE WILL
SEE A WARMING TREND DURING NEXT WEEK...BUT WE WILL STAY DRY WITH
LITTLE WIND PROBLEMS. MIN RH`S WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY HIGH TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT EVEN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE MIN
RH`S IN THE 40`S AND 50`S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 49  40  55  38  56 /  90  90  50  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           48  38  54  37  53 /  80 100  50  30  20
LAS CRUCES              47  38  53  38  54 /  90  90  50  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              48  36  52  34  54 /  90 100  50  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              38  28  39  25  41 / 100 100  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  36  50  35  54 /  80  90  50  30  10
SILVER CITY             45  36  48  35  53 /  90 100  60  40  20
DEMING                  47  37  52  36  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
LORDSBURG               49  38  53  35  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      49  42  55  41  57 /  90  90  50  30  20
DELL CITY               47  34  53  33  52 /  80 100  50  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            54  41  58  38  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
LOMA LINDA              45  36  50  38  52 /  90 100  50  30  20
FABENS                  51  38  55  36  55 /  80  90  50  30  20
SANTA TERESA            48  38  54  38  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          47  38  53  39  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           48  34  53  33  55 /  90  90  50  30  20
HATCH                   49  36  54  35  57 /  90  90  50  30  20
COLUMBUS                48  40  53  38  55 /  80  90  50  30  20
OROGRANDE               48  38  53  37  54 /  80  90  50  30  20
MAYHILL                 39  31  41  29  43 / 100 100  60  40  20
MESCALERO               41  29  42  27  45 / 100 100  60  40  20
TIMBERON                43  32  45  31  46 / 100 100  60  30  20
WINSTON                 42  33  44  32  49 /  80  90  60  30  10
HILLSBORO               46  36  48  37  52 /  80  90  50  30  20
SPACEPORT               48  35  52  34  57 /  90  90  50  30  10
LAKE ROBERTS            46  34  47  33  52 / 100 100  60  40  20
HURLEY                  45  34  48  35  53 /  90  90  50  40  20
CLIFF                   48  39  48  32  59 /  90  90  60  40  20
MULE CREEK              46  37  47  29  56 /  90 100  60  40  20
FAYWOOD                 45  36  48  37  53 /  90 100  50  30  20
ANIMAS                  52  38  55  36  58 /  80  90  50  30  20
HACHITA                 51  37  54  34  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  37  54  33  57 /  80  90  50  30  20
CLOVERDALE              54  40  54  37  56 /  90 100  60  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292226
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORM STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD START PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER
THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY MORNING SHOWERS COULD INCREASE AGAIN.
OVERALL...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DROP MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
BELOW 7000 FEET...WITH HEAVY SNOW OF 8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO RECOVER
NICELY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BECOMING WELL ORGANIZED WITH UPPER LOW
WEST OF CENTRAL BAJA...WITH NICE TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION FROM THE
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE CWA...AND RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY LATE THIS
EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TWO DIFFERENT REGIMES. FIRST REGIME
SHOULD RESEMBLE QUASI-TROPICAL PHASE WITH WARM...MOIST AIR OVER
RUNNING THE COLD FRONT. TPW BLENDED PRODUCT SHOWS CURRENT PW`S OVER
THE AREA OF .5-.7 INCHES AND MODELS INCREASE THIS TO .7-.9 INCHES
FRIDAY. THIS IS OVER 300% OF NORMAL. SO BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
EVENING A RELATIVELY STEADY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH (7000 FT SACS AND
8000 FT GILA REGION) SO RE-ARRANGED THE SNOW WARNING WORDING TO KEEP
WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ABOVE THESE ELEVATIONS.

SECOND REGIME BEGINS AFTER FIRST EXPERIENCING A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER
AREA FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SWITCH REGIME TO
MUCH MORE SHOWERY...SPOTTY PRECIP PATTERN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
FINALLY THOUGH NOT DRAMATICALLY. EXPECT LEVELS AROUND 6000 FT EAST
AND 7000 FT WEST...THOUGH SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD REACH
5500-6000 FT. GFS/NAM12 STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT (15-20") SNOWFALLS
OVER THE HIGH SACS AND BLACK RANGE. CALENDAR (NOT 24 HR) DAY SNOWFALL
RECORD IS 16" AT CLOUDCROFT...MAY APPROACH THAT. EXPECT TOP END SNOW
AROUND 10" BLACK RANGE AND 10-16" OVER THE SACS.

ECMWF/GFS QUITE CLOSE IN ENDING THE EVENT. BOTH DROP UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CONNECTING TROUGH BACK TO
THE EAST NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND REMAINING
THAT WAY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z...
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG
WITH RAIN AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. INITIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH P6SM VCSH BKN050-060 WITH SFC WINDS 08015G25KT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SPEEDS BELOW AT KTCS AFTER 04Z WHILE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. AFTER 06Z REGULAR
EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH 3SM -RA
OVC020-030 AS AREAS OF RAINFALL MOVE THROUGH. OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS
INTO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z DUE TO 1-2SM
WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
JOGGING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOIST AIR TO THE REGION THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDS
AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWLAND LOCATIONS COULD
EVENTUALLY SEE AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN LOOKING AT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE DEPENDING ON EXACT
ELEVATION.

MEANWHILE GUSTY EAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST FACING
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. AT THE SAME TIME COLDER AIR IS FILTERING IN AND
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW
DAYS. THE COLDER TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESULTING IN ELEVATED MIN RH VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DRYING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
THE GENERAL RULE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  47  40  53  38 /  80  90  50  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           40  46  38  52  37 /  60  80  60  50  30
LAS CRUCES              40  45  38  51  38 /  90  90  50  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              37  46  36  50  34 /  90  90  50  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              27  36  28  37  25 / 100 100  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  44  36  48  35 /  90  80  50  40  30
SILVER CITY             39  43  36  46  35 / 100  90  60  50  40
DEMING                  41  45  37  50  36 /  90  90  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               41  47  38  51  35 / 100  80  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      42  47  42  53  41 /  80  90  50  40  30
DELL CITY               37  45  34  51  33 /  70  80  50  50  30
FORT HANCOCK            44  52  41  56  38 /  60  80  50  40  30
LOMA LINDA              39  43  36  48  38 /  80  90  50  40  30
FABENS                  41  49  38  53  36 /  80  80  50  40  30
SANTA TERESA            41  46  38  52  38 /  90  90  50  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  45  38  51  39 /  90  90  50  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           40  46  34  51  33 /  90  90  50  40  30
HATCH                   40  47  36  52  35 /  90  90  50  40  30
COLUMBUS                42  46  40  51  38 /  90  80  50  40  30
OROGRANDE               39  46  38  51  37 /  90  80  50  40  30
MAYHILL                 28  37  31  39  29 / 100 100  60  50  40
MESCALERO               30  39  29  40  27 / 100 100  60  50  40
TIMBERON                32  41  32  43  31 /  90 100  60  50  30
WINSTON                 33  40  33  42  32 / 100  80  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               41  44  36  46  37 /  90  80  50  50  30
SPACEPORT               39  46  35  50  34 /  90  90  50  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            39  44  34  45  33 / 100 100  60  50  40
HURLEY                  38  43  34  46  35 / 100  90  50  50  40
CLIFF                   39  46  39  46  32 / 100  90  50  50  40
MULE CREEK              38  44  37  45  29 / 100  90  60  50  40
FAYWOOD                 41  43  36  46  37 / 100  90  50  50  30
ANIMAS                  41  50  38  53  36 / 100  80  50  40  30
HACHITA                 41  49  37  52  34 / 100  80  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          41  54  37  52  33 / 100  80  50  40  30
CLOVERDALE              44  52  40  52  37 / 100  90  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292226
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORM STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD START PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER
THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY MORNING SHOWERS COULD INCREASE AGAIN.
OVERALL...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DROP MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
BELOW 7000 FEET...WITH HEAVY SNOW OF 8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO RECOVER
NICELY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BECOMING WELL ORGANIZED WITH UPPER LOW
WEST OF CENTRAL BAJA...WITH NICE TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION FROM THE
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE CWA...AND RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY LATE THIS
EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TWO DIFFERENT REGIMES. FIRST REGIME
SHOULD RESEMBLE QUASI-TROPICAL PHASE WITH WARM...MOIST AIR OVER
RUNNING THE COLD FRONT. TPW BLENDED PRODUCT SHOWS CURRENT PW`S OVER
THE AREA OF .5-.7 INCHES AND MODELS INCREASE THIS TO .7-.9 INCHES
FRIDAY. THIS IS OVER 300% OF NORMAL. SO BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
EVENING A RELATIVELY STEADY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH (7000 FT SACS AND
8000 FT GILA REGION) SO RE-ARRANGED THE SNOW WARNING WORDING TO KEEP
WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ABOVE THESE ELEVATIONS.

SECOND REGIME BEGINS AFTER FIRST EXPERIENCING A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER
AREA FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SWITCH REGIME TO
MUCH MORE SHOWERY...SPOTTY PRECIP PATTERN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
FINALLY THOUGH NOT DRAMATICALLY. EXPECT LEVELS AROUND 6000 FT EAST
AND 7000 FT WEST...THOUGH SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD REACH
5500-6000 FT. GFS/NAM12 STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT (15-20") SNOWFALLS
OVER THE HIGH SACS AND BLACK RANGE. CALENDAR (NOT 24 HR) DAY SNOWFALL
RECORD IS 16" AT CLOUDCROFT...MAY APPROACH THAT. EXPECT TOP END SNOW
AROUND 10" BLACK RANGE AND 10-16" OVER THE SACS.

ECMWF/GFS QUITE CLOSE IN ENDING THE EVENT. BOTH DROP UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CONNECTING TROUGH BACK TO
THE EAST NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND REMAINING
THAT WAY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z...
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG
WITH RAIN AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. INITIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH P6SM VCSH BKN050-060 WITH SFC WINDS 08015G25KT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SPEEDS BELOW AT KTCS AFTER 04Z WHILE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. AFTER 06Z REGULAR
EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH 3SM -RA
OVC020-030 AS AREAS OF RAINFALL MOVE THROUGH. OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS
INTO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z DUE TO 1-2SM
WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
JOGGING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOIST AIR TO THE REGION THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDS
AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWLAND LOCATIONS COULD
EVENTUALLY SEE AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN LOOKING AT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE DEPENDING ON EXACT
ELEVATION.

MEANWHILE GUSTY EAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST FACING
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. AT THE SAME TIME COLDER AIR IS FILTERING IN AND
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW
DAYS. THE COLDER TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESULTING IN ELEVATED MIN RH VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DRYING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
THE GENERAL RULE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  47  40  53  38 /  80  90  50  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           40  46  38  52  37 /  60  80  60  50  30
LAS CRUCES              40  45  38  51  38 /  90  90  50  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              37  46  36  50  34 /  90  90  50  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              27  36  28  37  25 / 100 100  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  44  36  48  35 /  90  80  50  40  30
SILVER CITY             39  43  36  46  35 / 100  90  60  50  40
DEMING                  41  45  37  50  36 /  90  90  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               41  47  38  51  35 / 100  80  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      42  47  42  53  41 /  80  90  50  40  30
DELL CITY               37  45  34  51  33 /  70  80  50  50  30
FORT HANCOCK            44  52  41  56  38 /  60  80  50  40  30
LOMA LINDA              39  43  36  48  38 /  80  90  50  40  30
FABENS                  41  49  38  53  36 /  80  80  50  40  30
SANTA TERESA            41  46  38  52  38 /  90  90  50  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  45  38  51  39 /  90  90  50  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           40  46  34  51  33 /  90  90  50  40  30
HATCH                   40  47  36  52  35 /  90  90  50  40  30
COLUMBUS                42  46  40  51  38 /  90  80  50  40  30
OROGRANDE               39  46  38  51  37 /  90  80  50  40  30
MAYHILL                 28  37  31  39  29 / 100 100  60  50  40
MESCALERO               30  39  29  40  27 / 100 100  60  50  40
TIMBERON                32  41  32  43  31 /  90 100  60  50  30
WINSTON                 33  40  33  42  32 / 100  80  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               41  44  36  46  37 /  90  80  50  50  30
SPACEPORT               39  46  35  50  34 /  90  90  50  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            39  44  34  45  33 / 100 100  60  50  40
HURLEY                  38  43  34  46  35 / 100  90  50  50  40
CLIFF                   39  46  39  46  32 / 100  90  50  50  40
MULE CREEK              38  44  37  45  29 / 100  90  60  50  40
FAYWOOD                 41  43  36  46  37 / 100  90  50  50  30
ANIMAS                  41  50  38  53  36 / 100  80  50  40  30
HACHITA                 41  49  37  52  34 / 100  80  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          41  54  37  52  33 / 100  80  50  40  30
CLOVERDALE              44  52  40  52  37 / 100  90  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 291044
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWS TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BECOME COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER MILDER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL STRIKE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INITIAL
COLD AIR SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.
MEANWHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICAN BORDER BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL COINCIDE WITH A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

EVOLVING PATTERN WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID
LEVELS WITH 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 700 MB ADVECTING WARMER
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. THUS SIGNIFICANT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION
APPROACH WILL CAUSE GRADUALLY INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING AS
EVIDENT ON THE DIFFERENTIAL PVA FIELDS. BY FRIDAY MORNING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM .75 TO ALMOST AN INCH
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECT MAINLY RAINFALL OVER THE
LOWLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW
OVER A FEW NORTHERN LOWLAND AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR WINTER WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING AROUND AN
INCH. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO INITIALLY INHIBIT
MOUNTAIN SNOWS BUT DYNAMIC COOLING AT MID LEVELS OVER LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOWS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SO HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA WILDERNESS WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWS EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE BORDER
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA.
THESE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN BOTH DIMINISHING MOISTURE INFLOW AND
LIFT WITH PRECIP THREAT ACCORDINGLY LOWERING DURING THIS TIME. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEEP NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED
WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z WITH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 MPH
OVER SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN FACING SLOPES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 22Z INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWS TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE AROUND AN INCH OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ON
THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY ALSO BE AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN FACING SLOPES. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BECOME COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIER WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  42  47  37  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
SIERRA BLANCA           59  40  46  35  54 /  10  40  60  70  60
LAS CRUCES              60  40  45  35  53 /  20  70  70  60  50
ALAMOGORDO              61  37  46  33  52 /  20  70  70  70  60
CLOUDCROFT              45  29  35  24  39 /  20  70  80  80  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   58  37  44  33  50 /  20  70  60  60  50
SILVER CITY             58  39  43  34  48 /  20  70  80  70  60
DEMING                  61  41  45  34  52 /  20  70  70  60  50
LORDSBURG               63  41  47  35  53 /  20  70  70  60  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  45  47  39  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
DELL CITY               60  37  45  31  53 /  10  50  70  70  60
FORT HANCOCK            65  44  52  38  58 /  20  50  60  60  60
LOMA LINDA              58  39  43  34  50 /  20  60  80  70  60
FABENS                  63  41  49  35  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
SANTA TERESA            62  41  47  35  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          61  41  45  35  53 /  20  70  80  60  50
JORNADA RANGE           60  36  46  31  53 /  20  70  80  60  60
HATCH                   62  40  47  33  54 /  20  70  70  60  50
COLUMBUS                61  45  46  37  53 /  20  70  70  60  50
OROGRANDE               61  39  46  35  53 /  20  60  70  60  50
MAYHILL                 50  30  36  28  41 /  20  70  80  80  60
MESCALERO               50  31  38  26  42 /  20  70  80  70  70
TIMBERON                51  33  40  29  45 /  20  70  80  80  60
WINSTON                 53  36  40  32  44 /  30  80  70  60  60
HILLSBORO               57  41  44  34  48 /  20  70  70  60  60
SPACEPORT               61  36  46  32  52 /  20  70  70  60  50
LAKE ROBERTS            58  39  44  32  47 /  30  80  80  70  70
HURLEY                  58  38  43  32  48 /  20  70  70  60  60
CLIFF                   63  40  49  34  53 /  20  70  70  60  60
MULE CREEK              61  34  46  30  49 /  20  70  70  70  60
FAYWOOD                 59  41  43  34  48 /  20  70  70  70  60
ANIMAS                  65  41  50  35  55 /  20  70  70  60  50
HACHITA                 63  41  49  34  54 /  20  70  70  60  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  41  54  34  54 /  20  70  70  60  50
CLOVERDALE              63  44  52  38  54 /  20  70  80  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 291044
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWS TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BECOME COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER MILDER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL STRIKE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INITIAL
COLD AIR SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.
MEANWHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICAN BORDER BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL COINCIDE WITH A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

EVOLVING PATTERN WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID
LEVELS WITH 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 700 MB ADVECTING WARMER
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. THUS SIGNIFICANT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION
APPROACH WILL CAUSE GRADUALLY INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING AS
EVIDENT ON THE DIFFERENTIAL PVA FIELDS. BY FRIDAY MORNING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM .75 TO ALMOST AN INCH
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECT MAINLY RAINFALL OVER THE
LOWLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW
OVER A FEW NORTHERN LOWLAND AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR WINTER WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING AROUND AN
INCH. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO INITIALLY INHIBIT
MOUNTAIN SNOWS BUT DYNAMIC COOLING AT MID LEVELS OVER LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOWS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SO HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA WILDERNESS WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWS EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE BORDER
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA.
THESE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN BOTH DIMINISHING MOISTURE INFLOW AND
LIFT WITH PRECIP THREAT ACCORDINGLY LOWERING DURING THIS TIME. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEEP NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED
WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z WITH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 MPH
OVER SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN FACING SLOPES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 22Z INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWS TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE AROUND AN INCH OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ON
THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY ALSO BE AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN FACING SLOPES. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BECOME COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIER WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  42  47  37  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
SIERRA BLANCA           59  40  46  35  54 /  10  40  60  70  60
LAS CRUCES              60  40  45  35  53 /  20  70  70  60  50
ALAMOGORDO              61  37  46  33  52 /  20  70  70  70  60
CLOUDCROFT              45  29  35  24  39 /  20  70  80  80  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   58  37  44  33  50 /  20  70  60  60  50
SILVER CITY             58  39  43  34  48 /  20  70  80  70  60
DEMING                  61  41  45  34  52 /  20  70  70  60  50
LORDSBURG               63  41  47  35  53 /  20  70  70  60  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  45  47  39  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
DELL CITY               60  37  45  31  53 /  10  50  70  70  60
FORT HANCOCK            65  44  52  38  58 /  20  50  60  60  60
LOMA LINDA              58  39  43  34  50 /  20  60  80  70  60
FABENS                  63  41  49  35  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
SANTA TERESA            62  41  47  35  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          61  41  45  35  53 /  20  70  80  60  50
JORNADA RANGE           60  36  46  31  53 /  20  70  80  60  60
HATCH                   62  40  47  33  54 /  20  70  70  60  50
COLUMBUS                61  45  46  37  53 /  20  70  70  60  50
OROGRANDE               61  39  46  35  53 /  20  60  70  60  50
MAYHILL                 50  30  36  28  41 /  20  70  80  80  60
MESCALERO               50  31  38  26  42 /  20  70  80  70  70
TIMBERON                51  33  40  29  45 /  20  70  80  80  60
WINSTON                 53  36  40  32  44 /  30  80  70  60  60
HILLSBORO               57  41  44  34  48 /  20  70  70  60  60
SPACEPORT               61  36  46  32  52 /  20  70  70  60  50
LAKE ROBERTS            58  39  44  32  47 /  30  80  80  70  70
HURLEY                  58  38  43  32  48 /  20  70  70  60  60
CLIFF                   63  40  49  34  53 /  20  70  70  60  60
MULE CREEK              61  34  46  30  49 /  20  70  70  70  60
FAYWOOD                 59  41  43  34  48 /  20  70  70  70  60
ANIMAS                  65  41  50  35  55 /  20  70  70  60  50
HACHITA                 63  41  49  34  54 /  20  70  70  60  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  41  54  34  54 /  20  70  70  60  50
CLOVERDALE              63  44  52  38  54 /  20  70  80  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282218
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBING WITH COLD
FRONTS FROM THE EAST...TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER
FOR US LATER THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS
AND WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
FEATURE. SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA COAST. TO
ITS NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NOTED
OVER WESTERN B.C.. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NOTED UNDERCUTTING THIS
FEATURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THAT LOW...AND RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW EVENT FOR US LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

PRINCIPAL FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS EVENT REMAIN FOCUSED ON
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN TIMING
THE ONSET OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ATTENDANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GOOD CONSENSUS REMAINS WITH TIMING OF
A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN ON THURSDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT FROM MODEST UL DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG PVA...WILL COMBINE
INITIALLY WITH OVERRUNNING ATOP THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
STEEPENING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN ASSOCIATED
SYSTEM DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. THUS HAVE PAIRED BACK
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A FEW INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY PICK UP SOME SATURDAY AS DRY LINE
TRANSLATES EAST OF OUR AREA...AND ALLOWS DEFORMATION PRECIP
BANDING TO MIGRATE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NM / W TX.

THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 6 TO 10 DEGREES
THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER 10 TO 15 DEGREES FRIDAY WITH GREATEST DROP
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SNOW LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE GILA
REGION...FALLING TO NEAR 6000 AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENT.
FOR THE SACS...INFLUENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT RESULT IN SNOW
LEVELS STARTING AT ROUGHLY 7000 FEET...FALLING AS LOW
AS 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.

FOR TIMING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA...GFS MAINTAINS SYSTEM AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH CORE MIGRATING SSE OVER WESTERN SONORA
MEXICO/ BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. IT ATTEMPTS TO PHASE A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WEST PLAINS TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE. EC IS CLOSE AND
PHASES THESE FEATURES. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD LIGHT PRECIP
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY AS SIGNIFICANT STEERING
FLOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OVER CENTRAL U.S. AT THAT TIME.

DRIER WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLE CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z - 30/00Z... VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THRU THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. INITIALLY P6SM FEW-SCT250 WITH
SFC WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. BY 18Z A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
WINDS 05012G22KT WITH FEW- SCT040-060 BKN-OVC200.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A CHANGE TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. INITIALLY CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY WHILE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE EAST ON THE HEALS OF OCCASIONALLY GUTSY EAST WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD VENT RATES FOR THE
SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES DESPITE LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS WHICH WILL KEEP
VENT RATES POOR ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE TEMPS
SHOULD END UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THURSDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
DEW POINTS AND THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL HAVE PULLED UP ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WETTING PRECIP THAT WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. SNOW
LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET BUT WILL BE DROPPING
BY FRIDAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AS LOW AS 6000 FEET IN SPOTS. HEAVY
SNOWFALL OF A FOOT OR MORE COULD EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000
FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM
FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  61  41  48  37 /   0  20  60  70  60
SIERRA BLANCA           41  57  39  47  35 /   0  10  40  60  70
LAS CRUCES              40  58  40  46  35 /   0  10  60  70  60
ALAMOGORDO              38  59  38  48  33 /   0  20  60  70  60
CLOUDCROFT              30  43  28  36  24 /   0  20  70  80  80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  56  38  46  33 /   0  10  70  60  60
SILVER CITY             38  56  38  44  34 /   0  20  70  80  70
DEMING                  38  59  40  46  34 /   0  10  60  70  60
LORDSBURG               39  61  40  48  35 /   0  10  70  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  61  44  48  39 /   0  20  60  70  60
DELL CITY               36  58  36  46  31 /   0  10  50  60  60
FORT HANCOCK            42  63  43  53  38 /   0  20  40  60  60
LOMA LINDA              43  56  38  44  34 /   0  20  60  70  70
FABENS                  40  61  40  50  35 /   0  20  50  70  60
SANTA TERESA            40  60  40  48  35 /   0  20  60  70  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  59  41  46  35 /   0  20  60  80  60
JORNADA RANGE           36  58  36  47  31 /   0  20  60  70  60
HATCH                   38  60  40  48  33 /   0  10  60  70  60
COLUMBUS                41  59  44  47  37 /   0  10  60  70  60
OROGRANDE               41  59  39  47  35 /   0  20  60  70  60
MAYHILL                 37  48  29  37  28 /   0  20  70  80  80
MESCALERO               32  48  30  39  26 /   0  20  70  80  70
TIMBERON                37  49  32  41  29 /   0  20  70  80  80
WINSTON                 36  51  35  41  32 /   0  20  80  60  60
HILLSBORO               40  55  40  45  34 /   0  10  70  70  60
SPACEPORT               38  59  37  48  32 /   0  10  60  70  60
LAKE ROBERTS            34  56  38  45  32 /   0  20  80  80  70
HURLEY                  37  56  37  44  32 /   0  10  70  70  60
CLIFF                   35  61  39  50  34 /   0  10  70  70  60
MULE CREEK              32  59  33  47  30 /   0  10  70  70  70
FAYWOOD                 40  57  40  44  34 /   0  10  70  70  60
ANIMAS                  38  63  40  51  35 /   0  10  60  60  60
HACHITA                 37  61  40  50  34 /   0  10  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          38  62  40  55  34 /   0  10  60  60  60
CLOVERDALE              41  61  43  53  38 /   0  10  60  80  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ402-408-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/27
TRIPOLI/LANEY






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282218
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBING WITH COLD
FRONTS FROM THE EAST...TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER
FOR US LATER THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS
AND WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
FEATURE. SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA COAST. TO
ITS NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NOTED
OVER WESTERN B.C.. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NOTED UNDERCUTTING THIS
FEATURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THAT LOW...AND RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW EVENT FOR US LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

PRINCIPAL FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS EVENT REMAIN FOCUSED ON
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN TIMING
THE ONSET OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ATTENDANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GOOD CONSENSUS REMAINS WITH TIMING OF
A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN ON THURSDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT FROM MODEST UL DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG PVA...WILL COMBINE
INITIALLY WITH OVERRUNNING ATOP THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
STEEPENING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN ASSOCIATED
SYSTEM DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. THUS HAVE PAIRED BACK
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A FEW INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY PICK UP SOME SATURDAY AS DRY LINE
TRANSLATES EAST OF OUR AREA...AND ALLOWS DEFORMATION PRECIP
BANDING TO MIGRATE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NM / W TX.

THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 6 TO 10 DEGREES
THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER 10 TO 15 DEGREES FRIDAY WITH GREATEST DROP
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SNOW LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE GILA
REGION...FALLING TO NEAR 6000 AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENT.
FOR THE SACS...INFLUENCE FROM THE COLD FRONT RESULT IN SNOW
LEVELS STARTING AT ROUGHLY 7000 FEET...FALLING AS LOW
AS 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.

FOR TIMING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA...GFS MAINTAINS SYSTEM AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH CORE MIGRATING SSE OVER WESTERN SONORA
MEXICO/ BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. IT ATTEMPTS TO PHASE A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WEST PLAINS TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE. EC IS CLOSE AND
PHASES THESE FEATURES. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD LIGHT PRECIP
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY AS SIGNIFICANT STEERING
FLOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OVER CENTRAL U.S. AT THAT TIME.

DRIER WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLE CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z - 30/00Z... VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THRU THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. INITIALLY P6SM FEW-SCT250 WITH
SFC WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. BY 18Z A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
WINDS 05012G22KT WITH FEW- SCT040-060 BKN-OVC200.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A CHANGE TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. INITIALLY CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY WHILE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE EAST ON THE HEALS OF OCCASIONALLY GUTSY EAST WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD VENT RATES FOR THE
SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES DESPITE LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS WHICH WILL KEEP
VENT RATES POOR ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE TEMPS
SHOULD END UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THURSDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
DEW POINTS AND THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL HAVE PULLED UP ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WETTING PRECIP THAT WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. SNOW
LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET BUT WILL BE DROPPING
BY FRIDAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AS LOW AS 6000 FEET IN SPOTS. HEAVY
SNOWFALL OF A FOOT OR MORE COULD EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000
FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM
FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  61  41  48  37 /   0  20  60  70  60
SIERRA BLANCA           41  57  39  47  35 /   0  10  40  60  70
LAS CRUCES              40  58  40  46  35 /   0  10  60  70  60
ALAMOGORDO              38  59  38  48  33 /   0  20  60  70  60
CLOUDCROFT              30  43  28  36  24 /   0  20  70  80  80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  56  38  46  33 /   0  10  70  60  60
SILVER CITY             38  56  38  44  34 /   0  20  70  80  70
DEMING                  38  59  40  46  34 /   0  10  60  70  60
LORDSBURG               39  61  40  48  35 /   0  10  70  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  61  44  48  39 /   0  20  60  70  60
DELL CITY               36  58  36  46  31 /   0  10  50  60  60
FORT HANCOCK            42  63  43  53  38 /   0  20  40  60  60
LOMA LINDA              43  56  38  44  34 /   0  20  60  70  70
FABENS                  40  61  40  50  35 /   0  20  50  70  60
SANTA TERESA            40  60  40  48  35 /   0  20  60  70  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  59  41  46  35 /   0  20  60  80  60
JORNADA RANGE           36  58  36  47  31 /   0  20  60  70  60
HATCH                   38  60  40  48  33 /   0  10  60  70  60
COLUMBUS                41  59  44  47  37 /   0  10  60  70  60
OROGRANDE               41  59  39  47  35 /   0  20  60  70  60
MAYHILL                 37  48  29  37  28 /   0  20  70  80  80
MESCALERO               32  48  30  39  26 /   0  20  70  80  70
TIMBERON                37  49  32  41  29 /   0  20  70  80  80
WINSTON                 36  51  35  41  32 /   0  20  80  60  60
HILLSBORO               40  55  40  45  34 /   0  10  70  70  60
SPACEPORT               38  59  37  48  32 /   0  10  60  70  60
LAKE ROBERTS            34  56  38  45  32 /   0  20  80  80  70
HURLEY                  37  56  37  44  32 /   0  10  70  70  60
CLIFF                   35  61  39  50  34 /   0  10  70  70  60
MULE CREEK              32  59  33  47  30 /   0  10  70  70  70
FAYWOOD                 40  57  40  44  34 /   0  10  70  70  60
ANIMAS                  38  63  40  51  35 /   0  10  60  60  60
HACHITA                 37  61  40  50  34 /   0  10  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          38  62  40  55  34 /   0  10  60  60  60
CLOVERDALE              41  61  43  53  38 /   0  10  60  80  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ402-408-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/27
TRIPOLI/LANEY





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281045
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE BORDERLAND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INTO
THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MILDER
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH INFLOW OF WARM DRY AIR
MASS. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER A MUCH MORE COMPLICATED...ACTIVE
AND CHALLENGING SITUATION WILL DEVELOP.

A COLD WILL FIRST MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT ADVECTING COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THUS EXPECT TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INITIALLY
FALL AROUND 10 DEGREES. CONCURRENTLY A COMPLEX HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO CALIFORNIA AND BAJA BY AFTERNOON.
BACKING FLOW AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH RELATIVELY WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH INTO NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WHICH WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE COOLER AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THUS EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD BUT AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/BAJA BORDER REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH 700 MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 TO 40 KT OVER THE
CWA. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED AS MODELS SHOWING PRONOUNCED 700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE COLD AIR DOME DURING THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION DYNAMIC LIFTING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE VIA DIFFERENTIAL
PVA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. FINALLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL FORCE PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FROM .75 TO 1 INCH
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR WINTER. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH ALL THE
WAY INTO SATURDAY WITH OVER AN INCH OF WATER FALLING OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE INFLOW OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 7500 FEET DURING THIS TIME WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA WILDERNESS. HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING
ANY WATCHES.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CWA WITH CLOSED LOW DROPPING WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THIS WILL
ALLOW COOL BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO GRADUALLY
FLOW INTO THE CWA AND END THE THREAT OF PRECIP MOST AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE 15,000 FEET AGL.
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH LOWEST HUMIDITY AROUND
30 TO 40 PERCENT AND WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE BORDERLAND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER A FEW AREAS WITH UP TO A FOOT
OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER A FEW LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. EARLY NEXT
WEEK MILDER DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  42  61  41  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
SIERRA BLANCA           72  41  57  39  47 /   0   0  10  40  60
LAS CRUCES              70  40  58  40  46 /   0   0  10  60  70
ALAMOGORDO              69  38  59  39  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
CLOUDCROFT              52  30  43  30  36 /   0   0  20  70  80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  39  56  39  46 /   0   0  10  70  60
SILVER CITY             68  38  56  38  44 /   0   0  20  70  80
DEMING                  71  38  59  40  46 /   0   0  10  60  70
LORDSBURG               70  39  61  40  48 /   0   0  10  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  44  61  44  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
DELL CITY               72  36  58  36  46 /   0   0  10  50  60
FORT HANCOCK            75  42  63  43  53 /   0   0  20  40  60
LOMA LINDA              67  43  56  38  44 /   0   0  20  60  70
FABENS                  73  40  61  40  50 /   0   0  20  50  70
SANTA TERESA            71  40  60  40  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  41  59  41  46 /   0   0  20  60  80
JORNADA RANGE           68  36  58  36  47 /   0   0  20  60  70
HATCH                   72  38  60  40  48 /   0   0  10  60  70
COLUMBUS                71  41  59  44  47 /   0   0  10  60  70
OROGRANDE               70  41  59  39  47 /   0   0  20  60  70
MAYHILL                 65  37  48  32  37 /   0   0  20  70  80
MESCALERO               58  32  48  32  39 /   0   0  20  70  80
TIMBERON                61  37  49  33  41 /   0   0  20  70  80
WINSTON                 63  36  51  38  41 /   0   0  20  80  60
HILLSBORO               66  40  55  40  45 /   0   0  10  70  70
SPACEPORT               69  38  59  38  48 /   0   0  10  60  70
LAKE ROBERTS            65  34  56  38  45 /   0   0  20  80  80
HURLEY                  67  37  56  37  44 /   0   0  10  70  70
CLIFF                   70  35  61  39  50 /   0   0  10  70  70
MULE CREEK              66  32  59  33  47 /   0   0  10  70  70
FAYWOOD                 67  40  57  40  44 /   0   0  10  70  70
ANIMAS                  72  38  63  40  51 /   0   0  10  60  60
HACHITA                 72  37  61  40  50 /   0   0  10  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          72  38  62  40  55 /   0   0  10  60  60
CLOVERDALE              71  41  61  43  53 /   0   0  10  60  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281045
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE BORDERLAND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INTO
THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MILDER
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH INFLOW OF WARM DRY AIR
MASS. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER A MUCH MORE COMPLICATED...ACTIVE
AND CHALLENGING SITUATION WILL DEVELOP.

A COLD WILL FIRST MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT ADVECTING COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THUS EXPECT TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INITIALLY
FALL AROUND 10 DEGREES. CONCURRENTLY A COMPLEX HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO CALIFORNIA AND BAJA BY AFTERNOON.
BACKING FLOW AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH RELATIVELY WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH INTO NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WHICH WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE COOLER AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THUS EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD BUT AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/BAJA BORDER REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH 700 MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 TO 40 KT OVER THE
CWA. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED AS MODELS SHOWING PRONOUNCED 700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE COLD AIR DOME DURING THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION DYNAMIC LIFTING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE VIA DIFFERENTIAL
PVA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. FINALLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL FORCE PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FROM .75 TO 1 INCH
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR WINTER. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH ALL THE
WAY INTO SATURDAY WITH OVER AN INCH OF WATER FALLING OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE INFLOW OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 7500 FEET DURING THIS TIME WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA WILDERNESS. HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING
ANY WATCHES.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CWA WITH CLOSED LOW DROPPING WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THIS WILL
ALLOW COOL BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO GRADUALLY
FLOW INTO THE CWA AND END THE THREAT OF PRECIP MOST AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE 15,000 FEET AGL.
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH LOWEST HUMIDITY AROUND
30 TO 40 PERCENT AND WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE BORDERLAND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER A FEW AREAS WITH UP TO A FOOT
OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER A FEW LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. EARLY NEXT
WEEK MILDER DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  42  61  41  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
SIERRA BLANCA           72  41  57  39  47 /   0   0  10  40  60
LAS CRUCES              70  40  58  40  46 /   0   0  10  60  70
ALAMOGORDO              69  38  59  39  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
CLOUDCROFT              52  30  43  30  36 /   0   0  20  70  80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  39  56  39  46 /   0   0  10  70  60
SILVER CITY             68  38  56  38  44 /   0   0  20  70  80
DEMING                  71  38  59  40  46 /   0   0  10  60  70
LORDSBURG               70  39  61  40  48 /   0   0  10  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  44  61  44  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
DELL CITY               72  36  58  36  46 /   0   0  10  50  60
FORT HANCOCK            75  42  63  43  53 /   0   0  20  40  60
LOMA LINDA              67  43  56  38  44 /   0   0  20  60  70
FABENS                  73  40  61  40  50 /   0   0  20  50  70
SANTA TERESA            71  40  60  40  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  41  59  41  46 /   0   0  20  60  80
JORNADA RANGE           68  36  58  36  47 /   0   0  20  60  70
HATCH                   72  38  60  40  48 /   0   0  10  60  70
COLUMBUS                71  41  59  44  47 /   0   0  10  60  70
OROGRANDE               70  41  59  39  47 /   0   0  20  60  70
MAYHILL                 65  37  48  32  37 /   0   0  20  70  80
MESCALERO               58  32  48  32  39 /   0   0  20  70  80
TIMBERON                61  37  49  33  41 /   0   0  20  70  80
WINSTON                 63  36  51  38  41 /   0   0  20  80  60
HILLSBORO               66  40  55  40  45 /   0   0  10  70  70
SPACEPORT               69  38  59  38  48 /   0   0  10  60  70
LAKE ROBERTS            65  34  56  38  45 /   0   0  20  80  80
HURLEY                  67  37  56  37  44 /   0   0  10  70  70
CLIFF                   70  35  61  39  50 /   0   0  10  70  70
MULE CREEK              66  32  59  33  47 /   0   0  10  70  70
FAYWOOD                 67  40  57  40  44 /   0   0  10  70  70
ANIMAS                  72  38  63  40  51 /   0   0  10  60  60
HACHITA                 72  37  61  40  50 /   0   0  10  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          72  38  62  40  55 /   0   0  10  60  60
CLOVERDALE              71  41  61  43  53 /   0   0  10  60  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






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