000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240942
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AND SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS. FOR NEXT WEEK WARM DRY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CONVECTION OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY ON THURSDAY CREATED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PUSHED MOIST AIR TO THE WEST AS FAR AS
THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS TO 50 AS FAR WEST
AS EL PASO. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM
.75 TO 1 INCH. THUS DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRY LINE TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INITIATE STORMS.
WIND SHEAR WILL INCLUDE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS BENEATH 20 TO 30
KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MID LEVELS WHILE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET AGL INDICATING RISK OF HAIL WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS 40 TO 50 ALSO SUGGESTING STRONG DOWNBURSTS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. ELSEWHERE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUSTAIN WARM DRY WEATHER. ON SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THUS DRY
LINE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY
TO HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG WEST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING
EAST ON SUNDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THUS DRY LINE SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ENDING PRECIP/THUNDER THREAT
ALL LOCATIONS. UPPER TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFY AND MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE EAST. INFLOW OF
WARM DRY AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO NEAR 550 MB
ALLOWING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THUS
EXPECT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS
ACTUALLY HAD CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE BORDER CAUSING
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF
RUN PLUS ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANY CLOSED LOWS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN
18Z AND 02Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AND SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
HUDSPETH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN WARM DRY
WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO ALL LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST TO GENERATE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
TO WINDY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 93 68 94 68 95 / 20 20 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 89 64 91 63 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
LAS CRUCES 92 59 93 59 94 / 10 10 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 91 59 92 60 93 / 20 20 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 69 46 70 46 71 / 40 30 30 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 89 60 90 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 91 53 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 93 54 94 54 95 / 10 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 91 55 91 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 92 68 93 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 0
DELL CITY 91 57 93 58 94 / 30 30 30 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 94 66 96 67 97 / 30 20 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 86 57 87 58 88 / 20 20 10 10 0
FABENS 93 66 94 66 95 / 20 20 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 92 62 93 62 94 / 10 10 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 90 67 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 90 52 91 52 92 / 10 10 10 10 0
HATCH 88 60 89 59 90 / 10 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 92 59 93 59 94 / 10 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 93 59 94 60 95 / 20 20 10 10 0
MAYHILL 78 54 79 54 80 / 40 30 30 30 10
MESCALERO 81 45 82 45 83 / 40 30 20 20 10
TIMBERON 79 46 80 46 81 / 40 30 30 20 10
WINSTON 82 46 83 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 85 54 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 88 57 89 57 90 / 10 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 83 46 84 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 87 57 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 93 49 93 47 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 90 39 90 38 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 85 54 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 92 55 92 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 93 54 93 53 93 / 10 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 93 57 93 55 93 / 10 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 89 52 89 51 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232047
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
247 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY OVERNIGHT...AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
IS DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BORDERLAND. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH STRONG DOWN BURST WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN ENDING THEREAFTER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS DRIVE
THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE
COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST REGION...WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.A. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH THE EFFECT OF ITS
APPROACH BEGINNING TO DRAW GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE
BORDERLAND AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE NOW TO
OUR EAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.A. AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...IS
CARRYING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY.
TOTALS TOTALS OVER 50C AND LIFTED INDICES BELOW -3 ARE FORECAST
FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG WITH SIMILAR TT AND LI VALUES...ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AND NORTH INTO EASTERN OTERO
COUNTY. GIVEN INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...25-30 KTS OF WIND SHEAR THROUGH 6 KM IN THE 0-6 KM
AGL...ANY ENHANCEMENT BY ADDITION SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
ELEVATE STORM INTENSITY TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES ENTER AND ROTATE
AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FLOW
WILL DEEPEN...WITH A DEEP WARM DRY MIXING LAYER EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LEAST 20-30 MPH EXPECTED FOR THAT TIME.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO DIVERGE WILDLY DIVERGE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS PAINTING A DRIER SCENARIO. HERE BROAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST AND THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IS DRIVEN FURTHER
EAST OF OUR AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A MUCH
WETTER SCENARIO...WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND CUT OFF LOW
SOUTH OF ARIZONA BY MIDWEEK. THIS WOULD SERVE TO DRAW
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE OUR WAY WITH A MUCH
DEEPER SOUTHERLY TAP. HAVE LITTLE IN WAY OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE
EC SOLUTION FOR THAT HIGH OF AMPLITUDE IN PATTERN THIS TIME OF
YEAR. OPTING FOR STRONG BIAS TOWARDS DRIER GFS SCENARIO...WHICH
CLIMATE-WISE...IS MORE REALISTIC FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
REMAIN FORECAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD. UNTIL 15Z P6SM FEW120-150 SCT-BKN200-250 WITH
WEST WINDS 6-12KTS ALONG AND WEST OF A KALM-KELP LINE. EAST OF THE
LINE EXPECT FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200 WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SSE
UP TO 10KTS. AFT 15Z ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200 WITH ISOLD TO
SCT 3-5SM TSRA BKN040 WITH GREATEST COVERAGE THE FURTHER EAST YOU
GO. TO THE WEST...SW WINDS 10-15KTS FEW-SCT120-150.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALLOWING A DRYLINE TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FIRE DISTRICT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SACS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR DRY
LIGHTNING INCREASE FROM SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST INTO EL PASO
COUNTY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY TO KEEP
MOST STORMS WET. NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH EVERY AFTERNOON SEEING AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS. SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE LIKELY SO ANY DAY STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY COULD POTENTIALLY SEE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 70 93 68 94 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 66 89 64 91 63 / 20 30 30 20 10
LAS CRUCES 61 92 59 93 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 61 91 59 92 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 49 69 46 70 46 / 20 30 30 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 89 60 90 59 / 0 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 91 53 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 57 93 54 94 54 / 0 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 91 55 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 92 68 93 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 60 91 57 93 58 / 20 30 30 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 68 94 66 96 67 / 10 20 20 10 10
LOMA LINDA 59 86 57 87 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
FABENS 69 93 66 94 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 63 92 62 93 62 / 10 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 90 67 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 52 90 52 91 52 / 10 10 10 10 10
HATCH 61 88 60 89 59 / 0 10 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 62 92 59 93 59 / 0 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 93 59 94 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 57 78 54 79 54 / 20 40 40 30 20
MESCALERO 48 81 45 82 45 / 10 30 30 20 20
TIMBERON 49 79 46 80 46 / 10 30 30 20 20
WINSTON 49 82 46 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 85 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 57 88 57 89 57 / 0 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 83 46 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 58 87 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 93 49 93 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 90 39 90 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 85 54 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 59 92 55 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 93 54 93 53 / 0 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 93 57 93 55 / 0 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 89 52 89 51 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230831
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
231 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ALL BUT HUDSPETH COUNTY
QUITE DRY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL WORK WESTWARD OVER HUDSPETH AND
EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THOSE AREAS TO SEE A
SLIGHT RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE MOISTURE
WILL PUSH WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT WILL CREATE
INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER AIR ON STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT ON SUNDAY. THUS
WARM AND DRY WITH WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXACT WESTWARD EXTENT OF A GULF
MOISTURE SURGE. A LARGE NW PAC LOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
HAS PLACED OUR REGION UNDER A DEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN NM PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE IS AIDING A WESTWARD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON SE
WINDS ACROSS TX AND HELPING TO INCREASE SW WINDS INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TODAY THE AREA WILL SEE
CONTINUED BOUTS WITH HIGH CLOUDS...BUT VERY DRY AIR. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWLANDS SEEING MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.
TODAY IS APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE/GULF MOIST SURGE WILL BACK INTO
HUDSPETH CO AND POSSIBLY INTO E OTERO COUNTY. THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INDUCES SOME INSTABILITY IN THE DAYTIME HEATING. THUS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME POP POTENTIAL OVER A FAR EASTERN SLIVER OF THOSE COUNTIES.
TONIGHT THE MOIST PUSH PRESSES WEST WITH A DRYLINE SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL.
OTHER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT HERE. THUS FOR FRIDAY...THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPANDS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS EASTERN SIERRA
AND DONA ANA COUNTIES. THESE WILL BE HEAT INDUCED STORMS AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THUS POPS IN
THE PM HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT. THIS SAME SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
AGAIN FOR A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST AGAIN SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THE WEST COAST LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO PRESS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND BRING SW WINDS
BACK TO THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MOVING BACK OVER ALL ZONES. IN
ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND MIXING DEPTHS DEEPEN.
THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWLANDS FLIRTING WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR.
WILD FIRE DANGER WILL INTENSIFY WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH SKC-SCT200-250. GENERALLY W TO SW WINDS
12-18G25KTS DURING DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND UNDER 10KTS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE REGION UP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. FURTHER EAST INTO
HUDSPETH COUNTY GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...BUT STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 97 70 93 68 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 95 66 90 63 91 / 10 20 30 30 20
LAS CRUCES 95 61 92 59 93 / 0 0 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 95 61 91 59 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 71 49 69 46 70 / 10 20 30 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 94 64 89 60 90 / 0 0 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 89 55 91 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 95 57 93 54 94 / 0 0 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 95 57 91 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 95 68 92 68 93 / 0 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 95 60 92 57 93 / 10 20 30 30 20
FORT HANCOCK 96 68 95 66 96 / 10 10 20 20 10
LOMA LINDA 88 59 86 57 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
FABENS 96 69 93 66 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 97 63 92 62 93 / 0 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 94 69 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 96 52 90 52 91 / 0 10 10 10 10
HATCH 92 61 88 60 89 / 0 0 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 96 62 92 59 93 / 0 0 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 98 61 93 59 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 82 57 78 54 79 / 10 20 40 40 30
MESCALERO 84 48 81 45 82 / 10 10 30 30 20
TIMBERON 82 49 79 46 80 / 10 10 30 30 20
WINSTON 85 49 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 90 57 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 94 57 88 57 89 / 0 0 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 86 49 83 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 89 58 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 94 52 93 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 91 42 90 39 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 90 57 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 95 59 92 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 94 56 93 54 93 / 0 0 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 95 60 93 57 93 / 0 0 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 90 55 89 52 89 / 0 0 10 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14-BIRD
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222001
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS AND AS A RESULT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH WESTERLY FLOW TO BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AN UNUSUALLY DEEP HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FOR LATE MAY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED CIRCULATING OVER OREGON. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE WASHINGTON/OREGON VICINITY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WEST COAST
REGION.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LINE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WIND SHIFT LINE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST OF ITS AXIS. THUS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY CAPES WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG TO 1500
J/KG DURING THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE FROM .75 TO 1.2 INCHES.
THESE FACTORS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE EASTWARD WITH STRONGEST STORMS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INITIATION MECHANISMS SHOULD INCLUDE SURFACE
HEATING...DRY LINE CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
PASSING ALOFT. STORM THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY EASTERN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
TO EL PASO AND WESTERN OTERO COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE WARM AND DRY.
BY SUNDAY A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH DRY
LINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THUS EXPECT WARM
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH SKC-SCT200-250. GENERALLY W TO SW WINDS
12-18G25KTS DURING DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND UNDER 10KTS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE REGION UP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. FURTHER EAST INTO
HUDSPETH COUNTY GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...BUT STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 69 96 70 94 68 / 0 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 62 94 66 91 63 / 0 10 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 58 94 61 93 59 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 58 94 61 92 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 45 70 49 70 46 / 0 10 20 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 93 64 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 88 55 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 94 57 94 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 94 57 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 94 68 93 68 / 0 0 10 10 10
DELL CITY 57 94 60 93 57 / 0 10 20 30 30
FORT HANCOCK 64 95 68 96 66 / 0 10 10 20 20
LOMA LINDA 57 87 59 87 57 / 0 10 10 10 10
FABENS 66 95 67 94 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 60 96 63 93 62 / 0 0 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 93 69 91 67 / 0 0 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 49 95 52 91 52 / 0 0 10 10 10
HATCH 59 91 61 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 95 62 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 97 61 94 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 53 81 57 79 54 / 0 10 20 30 30
MESCALERO 45 83 48 82 45 / 0 10 10 30 30
TIMBERON 44 81 49 80 46 / 0 10 10 30 30
WINSTON 48 84 49 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 89 57 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 56 93 57 89 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 49 85 49 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 59 88 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 93 52 93 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 90 42 90 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 89 57 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 94 59 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 93 56 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 94 60 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 89 55 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220853
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT
GULF MOISTURE WILL PRESS WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES...AND MAYBE EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYS WARM AND DRY.
OTHERWISE WARM DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TWO WORDS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER...WARM/DRY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMS TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AFTERNOON WINDS JUST BELOW BREEZY
CRITERIA. A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE
GENERALLY SUNNY AND WARM TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY... BUT SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THUS MID
90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.
CONTINUED VERY DRY...MEANING WILDFIRE CONCERNS ELEVATE.
THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT WEST A BIT ALLOWING FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ON SE FLOW ACROSS TX. THIS
MAY BRING THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. IF SO...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN CWFA. HOWEVER WE EXPECT MOST
STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST
AREA.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE DRY LINE IS PROGED TO BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA...EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DRYLINE
PLACEMENT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO DRIFT WEST INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN
AND POSSIBLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK EAST A BIT WITH DAYTIME MIXING. THUS
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH...AND ONLY
EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES FOR THESE TWO AFTERNOONS/EVENING. FOR ALL
OTHER ZONES TO THE WEST IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WITH
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
A BIT. THIS NUDGES THE SURFACE TROUGH BACK TO THE NM/TX STATE LINE
AND EFFECTIVELY ENDS OUR EAST ZONE PCPN CHANCES AS THE DRY LINE
EXITS THE REGION TO OUR EAST. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER DEEP...DRY...WARM...BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELUCTANTLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE WINDS
DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 18-24 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND OVER
EASTERN AREAS ONLY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL TODAY AS SW FLOW RESUMES.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH WESTWARDS
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION RESULTING IN SOME THUNDER- STORM
ACTIVITY TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN OUTFLOW WHICH WILL FURTHER PUSH THE MOISTURE AND DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WESTWARDS AND REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS/GUADALUPES IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. BEING ON THE
MARGINAL WESTWARD FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 93 69 95 70 95 / 0 0 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 91 62 93 66 92 / 0 0 10 20 20
LAS CRUCES 91 58 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 90 58 93 61 93 / 0 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 68 45 69 49 71 / 0 0 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 91 61 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 88 55 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 91 56 93 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 91 57 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 92 66 93 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 91 57 93 60 94 / 0 0 10 20 30
FORT HANCOCK 95 64 94 68 97 / 0 0 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 87 57 86 59 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
FABENS 93 66 94 67 95 / 0 0 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 93 60 95 63 94 / 0 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 91 67 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 91 49 94 52 92 / 0 0 0 10 0
HATCH 88 59 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 91 61 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 94 57 96 61 95 / 0 0 10 10 10
MAYHILL 80 53 80 57 80 / 0 0 10 20 30
MESCALERO 79 45 82 48 83 / 0 0 10 10 20
TIMBERON 78 44 80 49 81 / 0 0 10 10 20
WINSTON 81 48 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 86 56 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 90 56 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 83 49 84 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 86 59 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 92 51 92 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 88 42 89 42 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 85 58 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 91 57 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 90 56 92 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 92 60 93 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 86 55 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14-BIRD
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212009
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
209 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WARM DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WITH A
DRY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP OUR HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ON THE LARGER SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UNSEASONABLY
DEEP HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON
THURSDAY. SYSTEM WILL SUBSEQUENTLY EXHIBIT LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH SERIES OF VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A BACKING FLOW WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE.
CONSEQUENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE 40 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO NEAR AN INCH. IN ADDITION EXPECT CAPES TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRY LINE PLUS SURFACE HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT TO INITIATE UPDRAFTS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK CONVECTION OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR TRANSPORT TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE DRIER
AIR TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH DRY LINE BEING FORCED EAST OF THE CWA.
THUS WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WWILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RELUCTANTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE
WINDS DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 18-24 KNOT
RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY LIGHTNING RISK INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL TOMORROW AS SW FLOW
RESUMES. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
WESTWARDS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION RESULTING IN SOME THUNDER-
STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUTFLOW WHICH WILL FURTHER PUSH THE MOISTURE AND DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WESTWARDS AND REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS/GUADALUPES IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. BEING ON THE
MARGINAL WESTWARD FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 64 94 68 96 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 57 91 62 94 63 / 0 0 0 10 20
LAS CRUCES 56 91 58 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 54 90 58 94 59 / 0 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 39 68 45 70 46 / 0 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 91 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 88 55 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 91 56 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 52 91 57 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 93 66 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 53 92 56 94 57 / 0 0 0 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 58 96 63 95 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 53 87 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
FABENS 60 94 65 95 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 58 93 60 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 91 67 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 46 91 49 94 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
HATCH 55 88 59 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 91 61 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 53 94 57 97 59 / 0 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 47 80 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 10 20
MESCALERO 41 79 45 83 45 / 0 0 0 10 10
TIMBERON 41 78 44 81 46 / 0 0 0 10 10
WINSTON 47 81 48 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 51 86 56 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 90 56 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 83 49 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 54 86 59 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 92 51 92 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 88 42 89 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 85 58 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 56 91 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 90 56 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 92 60 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 86 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN
| 
