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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 101108
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
408 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A SAYING IN METEOROLOGY BIG BUBBLE...NO TROUBLE AND THAT
PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP OUR WEATHER. THOUGH WE DON`T ACTUALLY HAVE A
BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ON US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER IS BASICALLY THE SAME THING. THE
RIDGE IS HERE AND IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (MAYBE ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA)...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH WILL SQUASH THE RIDGE A
BIT. IMAGINE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS A BALLOON. WHEN YOU SQUEEZE
THAT BALLOON IT TRIES TO POP OUT BETWEEN YOUR FINGERS...WELL OUR
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED BY THE TROUGH AND IT WILL
SIMPLY POP UP BACK TO OUR WEST AND THEN SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SO FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO COME TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...FOR NOW ALL THE SOLUTIONS POINT TO A CONTINUATION OF
OUR DRY WARM WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE STAYING PLACE...WE MIGHT SEE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK
VERY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 10/12Z-11/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND OUR SURFACE WINDS AT
LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER AND IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RH`S WILL BE
PRETTY DRY WITH LOW TO MID TEENS COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IN THE LOW 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  37  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           68  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  32  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  35  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  33  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  68  26  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               69  29  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  38  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               70  28  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            70  33  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  36  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  69  31  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  31  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  25  72  29 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   69  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  28  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  37  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               59  30  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                59  37  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 65  34  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               69  34  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            66  22  70  25 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  66  28  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   68  21  71  25 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              70  21  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 67  32  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  31  75  32 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 70  28  74  30 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          68  30  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              69  34  75  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 101108
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
408 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A SAYING IN METEOROLOGY BIG BUBBLE...NO TROUBLE AND THAT
PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP OUR WEATHER. THOUGH WE DON`T ACTUALLY HAVE A
BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ON US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER IS BASICALLY THE SAME THING. THE
RIDGE IS HERE AND IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (MAYBE ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA)...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH WILL SQUASH THE RIDGE A
BIT. IMAGINE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS A BALLOON. WHEN YOU SQUEEZE
THAT BALLOON IT TRIES TO POP OUT BETWEEN YOUR FINGERS...WELL OUR
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED BY THE TROUGH AND IT WILL
SIMPLY POP UP BACK TO OUR WEST AND THEN SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SO FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO COME TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...FOR NOW ALL THE SOLUTIONS POINT TO A CONTINUATION OF
OUR DRY WARM WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE STAYING PLACE...WE MIGHT SEE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK
VERY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 10/12Z-11/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND OUR SURFACE WINDS AT
LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER AND IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RH`S WILL BE
PRETTY DRY WITH LOW TO MID TEENS COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IN THE LOW 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  37  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           68  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  32  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  35  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  33  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  68  26  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               69  29  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  38  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               70  28  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            70  33  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  36  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  69  31  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  31  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  25  72  29 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   69  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  28  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  37  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               59  30  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                59  37  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 65  34  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               69  34  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            66  22  70  25 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  66  28  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   68  21  71  25 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              70  21  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 67  32  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  31  75  32 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 70  28  74  30 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          68  30  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              69  34  75  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 101108
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
408 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A SAYING IN METEOROLOGY BIG BUBBLE...NO TROUBLE AND THAT
PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP OUR WEATHER. THOUGH WE DON`T ACTUALLY HAVE A
BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ON US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER IS BASICALLY THE SAME THING. THE
RIDGE IS HERE AND IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (MAYBE ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA)...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH WILL SQUASH THE RIDGE A
BIT. IMAGINE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS A BALLOON. WHEN YOU SQUEEZE
THAT BALLOON IT TRIES TO POP OUT BETWEEN YOUR FINGERS...WELL OUR
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED BY THE TROUGH AND IT WILL
SIMPLY POP UP BACK TO OUR WEST AND THEN SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SO FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO COME TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...FOR NOW ALL THE SOLUTIONS POINT TO A CONTINUATION OF
OUR DRY WARM WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE STAYING PLACE...WE MIGHT SEE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK
VERY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 10/12Z-11/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND OUR SURFACE WINDS AT
LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER AND IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RH`S WILL BE
PRETTY DRY WITH LOW TO MID TEENS COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IN THE LOW 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  37  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           68  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  32  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  35  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  33  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  68  26  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               69  29  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  38  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               70  28  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            70  33  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  36  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  69  31  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  31  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  25  72  29 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   69  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  28  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  37  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               59  30  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                59  37  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 65  34  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               69  34  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            66  22  70  25 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  66  28  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   68  21  71  25 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              70  21  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 67  32  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  31  75  32 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 70  28  74  30 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          68  30  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              69  34  75  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 092146
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY...DRY...AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S COMMON IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS...
WITH 50S IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO IDAHO WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVED
OUT OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE RESULT FOR US...CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. THE 70S WILL
BE A COMMON THEME (HOPEFULLY JUST WITH MAX TEMPS) THROUGH THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 70 FOR EL
PASO TOMORROW...THEN SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID-70S BY THE
WEEKEND.

NORMALS (ELP) ARE AROUND 62-63...AND WHILE WE WILL BE WELL ABOVE
THAT...RECORDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO FALL. MOST OF THE DAYS AHEAD HAVE
RECORDS IN THE LOWER-80S...WITH 79 ON BOTH FEB 12 AND 13TH.

A VERY WEAK TROUGH SLIDING DOWN THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 10/00Z-11/00Z...
P6SM SKC THRU PD WITH LT E TO SE WINDS UNDER 10KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WETTING PRECIP WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE. WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS EACH
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. VENT RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS AND
WEAK TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 32  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           31  69  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              28  68  29  72 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              30  69  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              25  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             30  67  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  28  69  26  73 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               27  70  29  72 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      35  70  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               27  71  28  70 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            32  71  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              35  68  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  29  70  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  69  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          35  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           23  69  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   27  70  29  73 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                30  68  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               36  69  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 33  65  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               27  60  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  60  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 30  66  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               31  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               29  70  29  72 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            18  67  22  70 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  29  67  28  70 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   21  69  21  71 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              17  71  21  73 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 31  68  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  27  72  31  75 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 26  71  28  74 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          26  69  30  73 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              28  70  34  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 27-JLA





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 091120
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR SUNNY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FIVE TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING IN TO TAKE CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER AND IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. WITH
THE RIDGE IN PLACE WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
OUR WEATHER QUIET AND DRY FOR THE SHORT AND MIDDLE PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE HAD BEEN SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING OUR SUNNY...WARM AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS HAD A LOW SLIPPING UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WELL THE GFS HAS
CHANGED IT`S TUNE AND NOW AGREES MORE WITH THE ECMWF. SO WE CAN
EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 09/12Z-10/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 (48,72,96) HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL MEAN THAT WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. WE WILL BE DRY THOUGH...MIN RH`S WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN
THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  35  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           62  31  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              62  29  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              62  30  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  23  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  30  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             60  29  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  63  28  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               64  27  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  37  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               63  28  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            65  32  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  65  30  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            63  30  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          63  34  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           63  25  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  27  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                63  30  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               63  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  30  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               54  24  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                53  29  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 58  27  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  27  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  27  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            60  20  63  24 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  60  27  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   65  20  67  24 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              64  20  67  24 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  64  27  69  30 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 64  26  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  26  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              63  28  68  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 091120
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR SUNNY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FIVE TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING IN TO TAKE CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER AND IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. WITH
THE RIDGE IN PLACE WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
OUR WEATHER QUIET AND DRY FOR THE SHORT AND MIDDLE PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE HAD BEEN SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING OUR SUNNY...WARM AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS HAD A LOW SLIPPING UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WELL THE GFS HAS
CHANGED IT`S TUNE AND NOW AGREES MORE WITH THE ECMWF. SO WE CAN
EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 09/12Z-10/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 (48,72,96) HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL MEAN THAT WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. WE WILL BE DRY THOUGH...MIN RH`S WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN
THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  35  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           62  31  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              62  29  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              62  30  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  23  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  30  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             60  29  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  63  28  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               64  27  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  37  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               63  28  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            65  32  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  65  30  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            63  30  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          63  34  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           63  25  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  27  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                63  30  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               63  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  30  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               54  24  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                53  29  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 58  27  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  27  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  27  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            60  20  63  24 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  60  27  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   65  20  67  24 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              64  20  67  24 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  64  27  69  30 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 64  26  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  26  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              63  28  68  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 082143
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST. FORTUNATELY WE ARE BEING INFLUENCED MORE BY
THE RIDGE AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT BEGINS TO MIGRATE OUR DIRECTION. HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY ARE A RESULT OF A WEAK LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF US
ALLOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE WITH READINGS CLIMBING FROM SEASONAL NORMS TODAY TO AS
MUCH AS 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS WILL APPROACH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BUT
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REALLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL WIND SHIFTS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DO START TO DIVERGE BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT PRESENT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN AFFECTING THE EXTENT OF INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE HINTS
AT A ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY...BUT THE BIG
DIFFERENCE COMES INTO PLAY AS THE GFS FORMS A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY AND THEN BRINGS THIS
FEATURE INLAND WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE THE EMCWF KEEPS WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR REGION AND HENCE
IS THE DRIER SOLUTION. THIS ALL OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE REACH OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 09/00Z-10/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD WITH LT E TO SE WINDS UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
LOW...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH TEENS
AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           29  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              31  64  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              33  64  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   33  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      37  66  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            32  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              35  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  32  67  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            32  65  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  65  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   31  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                33  65  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               36  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               27  56  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  55  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 29  60  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               30  64  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               30  65  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  62  23  65 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  29  62  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   22  67  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  66  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 30  63  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  66  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 29  66  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          29  65  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              31  65  31  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 082143
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST. FORTUNATELY WE ARE BEING INFLUENCED MORE BY
THE RIDGE AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT BEGINS TO MIGRATE OUR DIRECTION. HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY ARE A RESULT OF A WEAK LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF US
ALLOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE WITH READINGS CLIMBING FROM SEASONAL NORMS TODAY TO AS
MUCH AS 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS WILL APPROACH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BUT
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REALLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL WIND SHIFTS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DO START TO DIVERGE BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT PRESENT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN AFFECTING THE EXTENT OF INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE HINTS
AT A ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY...BUT THE BIG
DIFFERENCE COMES INTO PLAY AS THE GFS FORMS A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY AND THEN BRINGS THIS
FEATURE INLAND WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE THE EMCWF KEEPS WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR REGION AND HENCE
IS THE DRIER SOLUTION. THIS ALL OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE REACH OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 09/00Z-10/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD WITH LT E TO SE WINDS UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
LOW...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH TEENS
AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           29  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              31  64  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              33  64  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   33  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      37  66  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            32  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              35  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  32  67  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            32  65  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  65  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   31  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                33  65  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               36  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               27  56  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  55  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 29  60  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               30  64  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               30  65  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  62  23  65 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  29  62  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   22  67  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  66  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 30  63  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  66  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 29  66  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          29  65  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              31  65  31  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 082111
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST. FORTUNATELY WE ARE BEING INFLUENCED MORE BY
THE RIDGE AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT BEGINS TO MIGRATE OUR DIRECTION. HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY ARE A RESULT OF A WEAK LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF US
ALLOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE WITH READINGS CLIMBING FROM SEASONAL NORMS TODAY TO AS
MUCH AS 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS WILL APPROACH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BUT
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REALLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL WIND SHIFTS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DO START TO DIVERGE BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT PRESENT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN AFFECTING THE EXTENT OF INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE HINTS
AT A ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY...BUT THE BIG
DIFFERENCE COMES INTO PLAY AS THE GFS FORMS A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY AND THEN BRINGS THIS
FEATURE INLAND WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE THE EMCWF KEEPS WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR REGION AND HENCE
IS THE DRIER SOLUTION. THIS ALL OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE REACH OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 09/00Z-10/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD WITH LT E TO SE WINDS UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
LOW...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH TEENS
AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           29  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              31  64  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              33  64  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   33  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      37  66  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            32  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              35  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  32  67  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            32  65  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  65  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   31  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                33  65  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               36  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               27  56  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  55  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 29  60  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               30  64  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               30  65  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  62  23  65 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  29  62  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   22  67  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  66  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 30  63  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  66  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 29  66  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          29  65  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              31  65  31  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 082111
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST. FORTUNATELY WE ARE BEING INFLUENCED MORE BY
THE RIDGE AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT BEGINS TO MIGRATE OUR DIRECTION. HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY ARE A RESULT OF A WEAK LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF US
ALLOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE WITH READINGS CLIMBING FROM SEASONAL NORMS TODAY TO AS
MUCH AS 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS WILL APPROACH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BUT
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REALLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL WIND SHIFTS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DO START TO DIVERGE BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT PRESENT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN AFFECTING THE EXTENT OF INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE HINTS
AT A ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY...BUT THE BIG
DIFFERENCE COMES INTO PLAY AS THE GFS FORMS A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY AND THEN BRINGS THIS
FEATURE INLAND WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE THE EMCWF KEEPS WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR REGION AND HENCE
IS THE DRIER SOLUTION. THIS ALL OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE REACH OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 09/00Z-10/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD WITH LT E TO SE WINDS UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
LOW...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH TEENS
AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           29  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              31  64  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              33  64  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   33  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      37  66  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            32  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              35  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  32  67  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            32  65  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  65  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   31  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                33  65  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               36  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               27  56  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  55  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 29  60  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               30  64  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               30  65  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  62  23  65 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  29  62  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   22  67  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  66  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 30  63  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  66  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 29  66  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          29  65  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              31  65  31  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 081111
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A QUIET AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DURING A WINTER THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY ONE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER (THANKS TO EL NINO) IT IS NICE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE TO SAY THAT OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TODAY WE WILL CONTINUE OUR SLOW WARMING
TREND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK OUR HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UNDER THE RIDGE WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE RIDGE IS IN NO HURRY TO MOVE
OFF SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN AND THE RESULTING
WEATHER INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS WITH THE ECMWF
KEEPING US DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE BUT THE GFS FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS HAS BEEN SLIPPING A TROUGH WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN UNDER
THE RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS PRETTY LOW UNTIL THE MODELS GET A LITTLE
BETTER CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 08/12Z-09/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL
EITHER BY UNLIMITED OR OCCASIONALLY HIGH BKN250. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK. THAT MEANS
WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF
THINGS WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS BEING 10 TO 15% DURING MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 20`S...BUT
WITHOUT THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  31  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  27  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              58  28  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  26  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  29  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  26  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  60  25  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               61  29  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  32  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  24  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            59  29  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              54  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  59  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  26  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  28  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  15  63  26 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   60  26  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                59  27  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  28  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  23  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               51  21  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                49  21  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 53  24  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               55  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               58  27  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  21  58  22 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  22  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   62  19  66  23 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  17  64  23 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 58  23  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  62  26  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 60  24  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  22  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              58  25  62  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 081111
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A QUIET AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DURING A WINTER THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY ONE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER (THANKS TO EL NINO) IT IS NICE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE TO SAY THAT OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TODAY WE WILL CONTINUE OUR SLOW WARMING
TREND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK OUR HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UNDER THE RIDGE WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE RIDGE IS IN NO HURRY TO MOVE
OFF SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN AND THE RESULTING
WEATHER INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS WITH THE ECMWF
KEEPING US DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE BUT THE GFS FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS HAS BEEN SLIPPING A TROUGH WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN UNDER
THE RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS PRETTY LOW UNTIL THE MODELS GET A LITTLE
BETTER CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 08/12Z-09/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL
EITHER BY UNLIMITED OR OCCASIONALLY HIGH BKN250. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK. THAT MEANS
WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF
THINGS WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS BEING 10 TO 15% DURING MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 20`S...BUT
WITHOUT THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  31  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  27  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              58  28  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  26  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  29  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  26  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  60  25  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               61  29  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  32  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  24  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            59  29  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              54  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  59  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  26  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  28  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  15  63  26 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   60  26  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                59  27  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  28  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  23  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               51  21  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                49  21  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 53  24  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               55  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               58  27  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  21  58  22 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  22  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   62  19  66  23 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  17  64  23 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 58  23  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  62  26  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 60  24  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  22  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              58  25  62  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 081111
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A QUIET AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DURING A WINTER THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY ONE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER (THANKS TO EL NINO) IT IS NICE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE TO SAY THAT OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TODAY WE WILL CONTINUE OUR SLOW WARMING
TREND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK OUR HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UNDER THE RIDGE WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE RIDGE IS IN NO HURRY TO MOVE
OFF SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN AND THE RESULTING
WEATHER INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS WITH THE ECMWF
KEEPING US DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE BUT THE GFS FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS HAS BEEN SLIPPING A TROUGH WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN UNDER
THE RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS PRETTY LOW UNTIL THE MODELS GET A LITTLE
BETTER CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 08/12Z-09/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL
EITHER BY UNLIMITED OR OCCASIONALLY HIGH BKN250. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK. THAT MEANS
WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF
THINGS WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS BEING 10 TO 15% DURING MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 20`S...BUT
WITHOUT THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  31  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  27  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              58  28  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  26  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  29  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  26  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  60  25  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               61  29  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  32  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  24  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            59  29  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              54  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  59  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  26  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  28  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  15  63  26 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   60  26  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                59  27  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  28  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  23  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               51  21  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                49  21  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 53  24  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               55  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               58  27  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  21  58  22 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  22  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   62  19  66  23 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  17  64  23 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 58  23  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  62  26  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 60  24  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  22  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              58  25  62  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 072037
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
137 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BORDERLAND WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
THE LOWLANDS WITH NO SIGN OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WORRY ABOUT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH EL NINO PATTERN DISAPPEARING FOR AT LEAST NEXT 10 DAYS.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK PUSH FROM THE EAST TONIGHT OF COOLER AIR
WHICH MAY DROP HIGHS TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME E TO
NE WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS CWA AT THIS TIME.
AFTER MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 FOR THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
AN ISSUE AT ANYTIME DURING THE PERIOD...BUT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
LOW AND ALLOW FOR 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL SPREADS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 07/00Z-08/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN250 THRU PD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH
AT SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS. LOOK FOR A WEAK FRONT TO TURN WINDS MORE
EASTERLY BY 12Z WITH WINDS APPROACHING 12 KTS AT KELP. WEST SLOPE
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE GUSTY CONDITIONS 09Z THRU 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND ALLOWING FOR A STEADY WARMING
TREND. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND
BRIEFLY MONDAY AND WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER EAST
WINDS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK
AHEAD. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AS THE TEMP RISES.
DESPITE RH VALUES FALLING TO CRITICAL LEVELS...LIGHTER WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LOW SIDE IN THE DAYS AHEAD DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS DUE IN PART TO
FAIRLY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 32  61  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           28  57  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              29  60  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              27  59  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              24  45  20  46 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   28  59  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  57  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  26  62  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  63  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  60  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  58  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            30  61  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              30  56  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  61  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            31  60  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          29  60  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           18  60  15  62 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   27  62  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                28  61  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               29  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 26  57  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  53  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                24  51  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 24  55  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               25  57  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               25  60  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            18  60  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  23  57  22  60 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   20  64  19  65 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              15  65  17  63 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 24  60  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  24  64  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 25  62  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          23  62  22  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              26  60  25  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/27





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