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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252108
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY DESPITE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
OFF AS A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT AS TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES. MONDAY WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY AND WARM. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A MILD AND
DRY COOL FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. LATE WEEK WARMS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE REGION IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE KICKER IS A
STRONG NW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL OPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AS A BROAD TROUGH. FOR OUR DEEP SOUTHWEST LOCALE IT
PROBABLY WON`T BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. TOMORROW WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN ADDITION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASES IN
WINDS WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AND TOP OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MOST MODELS ARE DRY FOR THIS PASSAGE BUT THE GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO PUT OUT SOME PCPN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NOT ON BOARD SO
NO POPS IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AS ANOTHER DRY
FEATURE. THIS TIGHTENS THE GRADIENTS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST. THUS POTENTIALLY BREEZY MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
A FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT
STILL ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEAK BACKDOOR ARRIVES TUESDAY AND COOLS TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER
TO NORMAL...BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH TO GET THE REGION BELOW NORMALS ON
MAX OR MIN TEMPS. ALSO LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY.

LATE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS A SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO
DRAW A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE IN UNDER A BUILDING SHARP HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION OF
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. THE GFS AGAIN IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH SOME QPF OUTPUT OVER THE CWFA. WE`LL HOLD OFF ON THIS
DAY 7 PCPN FOR NOW AND JUST ADD THE CLOUDS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z - 27/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR PERIODS OF SCT300-330.  LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
16/18Z...BECOMING 230-25008-20KT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

22-TRIPOLI


.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. JET
STREAM PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE COUNTRY IS THE CLOSEST TO WHAT ONE
MIGHT CALL "NORMAL"...SEEN IN SOME TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION...WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO RETURN.  THIS WILL CARRY PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  LOOK FOR BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BOTH DAYS ALSO AS A RESULT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.  UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION BY WEEKS
END...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

MIN RH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S LOWLANDS...TO MIDDLE 30S
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT MONDAY.  BY MID
WEEK VALUES CLIMB BACK UP ROUGHLY 5-8 %. LOOK FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GOOD VENT RATES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

22 - TRIPOLI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  86  61  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  84  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              51  84  54  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  83  55  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              41  70  43  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  83  54  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             52  79  51  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  49  85  51  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               50  84  51  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  87  60  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               50  85  51  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  88  57  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              55  83  57  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  52  87  56  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  85  56  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  83  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           44  83  46  79  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   47  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  84  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               54  84  57  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 45  77  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               43  78  44  73  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                43  76  45  72  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 47  74  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  80  51  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               47  83  49  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            47  73  46  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  52  81  49  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   40  82  44  76  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              39  81  40  74  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 52  80  51  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  52  86  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 51  85  51  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  86  50  81  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  87  52  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/22







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250941
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY
WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER TRANQUIL ZONAL PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITE3D STATES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SLOW MOVEMENT FURTHER EAST EXPECTED. BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND APPROACHING TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST. THUS FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AS INITIALLY WEAK LEE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TRANSPORT OF WARM AIR CAUSING
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ADVECT INTO THE AREA SO
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND.

ON MONDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH
WESTERLY GRADIENTS INCREASING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS. AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CWA WITH EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING COOLER
AIR. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY COOL AROUND 5 TO
10 DEGREES OR TO NEAR NORMAL. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH FLOW SUBSEQUENTLY
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GFS ACTUALLY FORECASTS
PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE OVER LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY OUTLOOK UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCE WITH EXTENDED
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/12Z-26/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO CLOUDS BELOW 10,000 FEET AGL MOST LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 25 TO 35 PERCENT TODAY
AND SUNDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TODAY
INCREASING AND AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE
ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  57  86  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           78  53  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              80  52  84  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              80  52  83  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              69  40  70  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   78  53  83  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             77  51  79  50  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  81  50  85  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               81  51  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  58  87  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               80  49  85  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            83  54  88  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              81  54  83  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  84  51  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            81  54  85  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          79  55  83  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           80  45  83  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   79  48  83  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  54  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               80  55  84  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 75  44  77  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               75  42  78  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                74  42  76  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 75  46  74  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               78  51  80  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  48  83  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            76  46  73  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  80  51  81  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   82  41  82  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  38  81  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 77  51  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  83  53  86  51  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  52  85  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  52  86  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              85  53  87  51  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER AIR
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
SEE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANCE
FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO RIDGE IS HOW TO SUM UP OUR
WEATHER. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW
MEXICO GIVING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IN ITS PLACE WE WILL
SEE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OUR SUNNY WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO THE GFS MODEL INDICATED THAT THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS INCLUDING THIS MORNING`S RUN
HAVE BACKED OFF BOTH THE MOISTURE AND THE LIFT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

LATER ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IT
IS NOT A REAL STRONG PUSH AND NOT VERY COOL...BUT IT WILL KNOCK
OUR TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH AGAIN WILL CONTINUE OUR SUNNY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/00Z - 26/00Z...
GNLY SKC (FEW060 18Z-00Z). WINDS SW 7 KTS 18Z-00Z OTHERWISE NE-SE
5KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST AND GIVE WAY
TO DRY AN WARM WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND INTO MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES (DOWN
SOME 5 DEG F OR SO) BRIEFLY TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL RUN IN THE
25% TO 35% RANGE FRIDAY AND ABOUT 5% LOWER OVERALL SATURDAY ACROSS
THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  83  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  78  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              52  80  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  80  52  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              39  69  40  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             49  77  51  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  49  81  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               49  81  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  82  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               47  80  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  83  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              54  81  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  51  84  51  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  81  54  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  79  55  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           43  80  45  82  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   48  79  48  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  80  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               55  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 45  75  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  75  42  77  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  74  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 45  75  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  78  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               49  78  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            45  76  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  49  80  51  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   41  82  41  81  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              37  80  38  80  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 50  77  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  52  83  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 48  81  52  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  84  52  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              52  85  53  86  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/NOVLAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240943
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND MOSTLY WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND OVER
THE NEXT WEEK AS OUR UPPER FLOW IS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY AND COOL
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST
CREATING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH VERY FEW CLOUDS GENERATING FROM THAT. A WEAK
UPPER LOW RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THIS HIGH CENTER. THE HIGH WILL
RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE US 48 HOURS OF LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND PASS OVER NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWING ONLY WEAK PVA AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH
THIS TROUGH. NICE ~100 KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH BUT MODELS
SHOW JET MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH CWA REMAINING OUT OF
FAVORED LIFT AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TOKEN POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING MENTIONABLE. GFS SHOWS DECENT SWATH OF HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...
BUT JUST EXPECT MID/HIGH CLDS WITH THIS.

A BETTER DEFINED PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND THE WEAK
TROUGH AND REACHES THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN FEATURE SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE HIGHER CLOUDS OF THE
FIRST TROUGH. TROUGH COULD PICK UP WINDS SOME MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH FOR NOW KEPT WINDS JUST BELOW BREEZY CATEGORY. TROUGH APPEARS
TO BRING WEAK PAC COOL FRONT THROUGH ALSO SO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS SHOULD COOL SOME MONDAY AND THEN
FURTHER TO BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FLOW REMAINS ZONAL BEHIND THE MONDAY
TROUGH WITH DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING RIDGE AHEAD OF
IT OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DAMPENING OUT AND
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. ONE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
FOR...GFS IS ADVERTISING WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY AND A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST MOISTURE SURGE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEW POINTS RISE TO OR SURPASS 50
DEG WITH EVEN A BIT OF QPF JUST EAST OF HUDSPETH. SINCE THIS IS DAY
7 OF FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
TWO OF CONSISTENCY OF THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z...
VFR...WX NIL...CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LAYERS OF CIRRUS
FL220 AND ABOVE MAY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WARM PATTERN OVERALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER HIGH
NEAR NORTHERN BAJA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST...OVER NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE FIRE ZONES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES. SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A WEAK PACIFIC COOL
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AND BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM UP BACK ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% LOWLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE MIN RH`S FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 30-40% THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  57  83  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           79  53  78  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              80  53  80  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  52  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              68  40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  54  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             76  50  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  81  50  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               81  50  81  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  59  82  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               81  48  80  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  83  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  55  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  83  52  84  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            81  54  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  56  79  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           81  44  80  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   80  49  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  54  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               81  56  80  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 75  46  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               75  43  75  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                73  43  74  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 74  46  75  47  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               77  53  78  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               80  50  78  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  46  76  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  78  50  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   81  42  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  38  80  39  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 77  51  77  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  83  53  83  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  49  81  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  49  84  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              83  53  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231931
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
131 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES LATER MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE A SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH COVERING NEW MEXICO.
ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH BRING
DRY SUNNY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL MEANWHILE ENTER
THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF TROUGH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY GRADIENTS ALOFT. ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPE FLOW
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL ALSO GENERATE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY SUNDAY WITH PRONOUNCED LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR MASS BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL APPROACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY SUNDAY AND RANGE FROM BREEZY TO
WINDY ON MONDAY. TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASS
THROUGH THE CWA LATER MONDAY WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
LATER PERIODS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS
AGAIN BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z - 25/00Z...
GNLY SKC...WX NIL CAVOK. WINDS LGT VRBL UNDER 7 KTS SW-SE.
SKC-FEW250 OTHERWISE FEW050 AFTN HRS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH WILL RUN IN THE
45% TO 55% RANGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY DROPPING ABOUT 10% OVERALL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  82  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  79  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  80  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              49  81  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  65  40  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  79  53  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             48  76  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  81  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  81  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  82  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               46  81  47  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  84  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  79  54  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  50  83  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  81  54  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  80  55  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           41  81  43  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  80  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  80  53  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  81  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  73  46  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               39  73  43  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  71  43  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  74  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  77  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               47  80  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  75  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  48  78  49  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  81  42  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  80  37  79  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  77  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  50  83  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 45  81  48  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  84  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  83  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230919
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
319 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND WARMING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED. OTHER THAN A
FEW CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES YET FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AFTERNOON BREEZES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST AND A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PLACE NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP LOCAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURE WISE. LONG RANGE
MODELS PROJECT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
THAT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FURTHER FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z - 24/12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKY CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM
SKC TO FEW 050 IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A DRIER AND WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH
WILL RUN IN THE 45% TO 55% RANGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY DROPPING
ABOUT 10% OVERALL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  55  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           77  50  79  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  50  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              78  49  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  52  79  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  48  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  78  46  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  48  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  56  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               77  46  81  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  54  84  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              74  52  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  80  50  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            78  53  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  53  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  41  81  43  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   77  46  80  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                78  52  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               77  53  81  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  43  73  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               70  39  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                68  39  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 73  44  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               74  48  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               77  47  80  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            73  44  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  74  48  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  42  81  42  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  36  80  37  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 73  49  77  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  81  50  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 80  45  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  45  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              80  49  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04







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