000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172109
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. SOME MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WILL
PERSIST...MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO...WHERE THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THURSDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN SEEPING BACK IN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK
OVER THE ENTIRE BORDERLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRIER WEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN THE SHORT TERM...WV IMAGERY AND NAM MODEL
BOTH SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WAS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF CONVECTION A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY
THAN USUAL. THIS WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHILE
APPARENTLY SUPPRESSING GILA AREA CONVECTION RIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE AREA EAST
OF EL PASO.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRIER HOTTER WEATHER IN STORE AS DRY WEST
FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN EACH DAY FOR THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WITH HIGH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 5
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA...DECREASING THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW WITH MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BACK OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
COLUMN MOISTURE DON`T LOOK REAL IMPRESSIVE BUT STRONGEST STORMS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE VEERING WIND
PROFILE WILL EXIST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE
TO HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CLOUDS.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER HIGH CENTERS OVER AREA WHICH SHOULD CUT
BACK ON THE CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIKELY
LIMITED TO MOUNTAINS AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z.
DRIER AIR MOVING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN ISOLD MOUNTAIN/LOWLAND
TSRAGS AND SCT LOWLAND TSRAGS/WND G50KT/LOCAL BLDU EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE THROUGH 02Z. LOOK FOR 250-270/10-15G20KTS THROUGH 02Z WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND AGAIN ALL AREAS AFT 18Z TUESDAY. LGT
OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-080 ALG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF AREA MTNS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY...AS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS
MOST OF THE REGION AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL CONFINE STORM
CHANCES TO MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME MONSOON DRIVEN MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER THURSDAY. FOR EARLY TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SILVER FIRE THROUGH
AND OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE TULAROSA BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...MONSOON DRIVEN
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MIGRATING NORTHWARD OVER AREA...FOR A RETURN TO
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS.
FOR TUESDAY...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN
LOWER LOWLAND MIN RH TO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE TULAROSA
BASIN...WEST TO THE AZ BORDER. GILA REGION WILL SEE MIN RH TO THE
LOW TEENS. EAST OF THE BASIN..MIN RH WILL FALL TO THE MIDDLE TEENS
..WITH HIGH 20S TO 30 EXPECTED FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. MIN RH WILL CLIMB 4-6 PERCENT ACROSS IN GENERAL
THURSDAY...AND ROUGHLY ANOTHER 10 PERCENT FRIDAY ALL AREAS.
THE DRYING TREND WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...WITH
LOWLAND READINGS IN SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 100S BY
MID WEEK. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL RESULT IN HAINES INDICES OF 6 FOR
AREA MOUNTAINS...AND 4-5 FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY. VALUES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 4-5 AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 76 102 77 103 78 / 10 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 73 97 72 102 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 71 100 72 103 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 99 69 103 71 / 10 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 47 80 50 79 51 / 30 20 20 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 100 72 103 73 / 10 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 62 95 64 96 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 102 68 103 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 100 68 102 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 100 79 103 80 / 10 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 67 95 67 101 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 77 103 77 106 78 / 20 10 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 68 96 66 97 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
FABENS 75 102 75 104 76 / 10 10 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 100 74 102 75 / 10 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 99 73 102 74 / 10 10 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 65 100 65 102 66 / 10 10 10 0 0
HATCH 70 97 71 99 72 / 10 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 99 72 103 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 71 102 70 103 72 / 10 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 54 88 57 87 58 / 30 20 20 10 10
MESCALERO 50 89 53 89 55 / 20 10 10 10 10
TIMBERON 51 87 54 86 55 / 20 10 10 10 10
WINSTON 57 91 58 93 59 / 10 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 64 95 67 97 68 / 10 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 68 94 69 101 70 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 92 60 93 61 / 10 0 0 10 10
HURLEY 64 97 65 98 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 97 62 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 96 51 99 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 94 66 97 67 / 10 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 68 100 69 103 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 66 98 67 103 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 101 68 104 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 64 96 64 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/TRIPOLI
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 170946
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
346 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE BORDER REGION WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS AN INCREASED WEST FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOUNTAINS
AND LOWLANDS MOSTLY EAST OF EL PASO. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HOT THROUGH THE WEEK. A SMALL AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS FEATURE DEPARTS THE AREA...AN DRIER
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE AND PUSH MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WITH TODAY BEING A
TRANSITION DAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY ALSO FUEL AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO OVER THE GILA REGION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOWLAND AREAS WITH 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEST FLOW KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY AND HOT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 100`S ACROSS THE DESERT
LOWLANDS.
ON THURSDAY...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PARTIALLY REBUILD
OVER THE REGION...WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE NOT REAL STRONG WITH THIS FLOW WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING NEAR AN INCH...BUT THE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE BIG PRECIP
PRODUCERS WITH SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 100
DEGREES EACH DAY.
&&
AVIATION...VALID 17/12Z-18/12Z...
DRY WEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH MOISTURE FURTHER EAST TODAY...
LIMITING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MTNS AND AREAS EAST OF KELP.
ISOLD T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z OVER MTNS FIRST WITH LOWLANDS
AFT 21Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL BE 250-270/10-15G20KTS
AFT 20Z FOR AREAS W OF THE RIO GRANDE. AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER CAN
EXPECT 250-270/5-10KT AT THAT TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASED WEST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...MONSOON DRIVEN
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MIGRATING NORTHWARD OVER AREA...FOR A RETURN
TO ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS.
FOR MONDAY...THE DRYING TREND WILL LOWER LOWLAND MIN RH TO THE HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE TULAROSA BASIN...WEST TO THE AZ BORDER. GILA
REGION WILL SEE MIN RH TO THE LOW TEENS. EAST OF THE BASIN...MIN RH
WILL FALL TO THE MIDDLE TEENS ...WITH HIGH 20S TO 30 EXPECTED FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYING TREND WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...WITH
LOWLAND READINGS IN SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO TOP 100 BY MID WEEK.
THE WARMER WEATHER WILL RESULT IN HAINES INDICES OF 6 FOR AREA
MOUNTAINS...AND 4-5 FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 101 76 102 75 102 / 10 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 98 73 97 71 101 / 20 20 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 100 71 100 71 102 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 98 66 99 68 102 / 10 10 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 77 50 78 51 80 / 30 30 20 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 98 72 100 71 102 / 10 10 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 92 63 94 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
DEMING 100 68 102 67 102 / 10 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 100 66 100 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 100 78 100 77 102 / 10 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 97 67 95 65 100 / 20 30 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 103 77 103 75 105 / 20 20 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 93 69 95 66 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
FABENS 102 75 102 73 103 / 10 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 100 73 100 73 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 97 72 99 72 101 / 10 10 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 98 65 100 64 101 / 10 10 10 10 0
HATCH 95 70 97 70 98 / 10 10 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 99 72 99 71 102 / 10 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 99 71 102 69 102 / 10 10 10 10 0
MAYHILL 85 57 85 57 86 / 20 30 20 20 10
MESCALERO 88 53 86 53 88 / 20 20 10 10 10
TIMBERON 84 54 84 54 85 / 20 20 10 10 10
WINSTON 90 58 90 58 92 / 10 10 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 93 65 94 67 95 / 10 10 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 98 68 94 68 100 / 10 10 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 91 58 91 60 92 / 10 10 0 0 10
HURLEY 92 65 96 65 96 / 10 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 100 61 98 61 101 / 10 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 97 51 97 51 99 / 0 0 0 10 0
FAYWOOD 92 66 93 66 95 / 10 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 100 68 100 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 100 66 98 66 102 / 10 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 101 67 101 67 103 / 10 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 97 65 95 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162109
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
309 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
SPOTTY WITH MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WESTERLY
FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE EAST. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO
DURING THE PERIOD. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AND HOT...WITH LOWER 100`S EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AS PART OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT PLENTY OF RESIDUAL REMAINS TO HELP FUEL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND MODERATE RAINFALL.
WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH
RANGE. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND END TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BEGIN A SHORT DRYING TREND AS A DRY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH MOISTURE BACK EAST OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT EL PASO-EASTWARD WHILE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY. A COUPLE OF BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
GILA REGION...FUELED BY HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE SPOTTY
AND GENERALLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE
LOWER 100`S FOR MOST LOWLAND AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HOT.
BY THURSDAY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOIST
RETURN FLOW PATTERN AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH BACK INTO OUR
AREA. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP MODEST AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THERE AND
TRANSPORT IT INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE IMPROVED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED LOWLANDS WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAINS.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z-18/00Z.
ISOLD MOUNTAIN TSRA AND SCT LOWLAND TSRAGS/WND G45KT/LOCAL BLDU WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z...WITH A FEW ISOLD -SHRA EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH 05Z. A RAMP UP IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN STORE EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER THAT OBSERVED SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES UP OVER OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE
TODAY. THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AND OPENS US BACK UP TO DRIER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOOK
FOR 250-270/10-15G20KTS AFT 20Z FOR AREAS W OF THE RIO GRANDE. AREAS
EAST OF THE RIVER CAN EXPECT 250-270/5-10KT AT THAT TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRENGTHENED AREA OF SINKING AIR IS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME...AND IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS STRONGER CONVECTION GENERALLY
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WEST TO THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY TONIGHT...AND IS
EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY REDUCE THE STRENGTH OF ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
STORMS OVER SW NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL
FOLLOW UP THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...AS OUR
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...MONSOON DRIVEN MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MIGRATING NORTHWARD OVER
AREA...FOR A RETURN TO ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS.
FOR MONDAY...THE DRYING TREND WILL LOWER LOWLAND MIN RH TO THE HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE TULAROSA BASIN...WEST TO THE AZ BORDER. GILA
REGION WILL SEE MIN RH TO THE LOW TEENS. EAST OF THE BASIN...MIN RH
WILL FALL TO THE MIDDLE TEENS ...WITH HIGH 20S TO 30 EXPECTED FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYING TREND WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...WITH
LOWLAND READINGS IN SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO TOP 100 BY MID WEEK.
THE WARMER WEATHER WILL RESULT IN HAINES INDICES OF 6 FOR AREA
MOUNTAINS...AND 4-5 FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 75 101 76 102 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 74 98 73 97 71 / 20 20 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 73 100 71 100 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 67 98 66 99 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 51 76 50 77 51 / 30 30 30 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 98 72 100 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 62 92 63 94 64 / 20 10 10 10 0
DEMING 70 100 68 102 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 67 100 66 100 67 / 10 0 0 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 100 78 100 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 68 97 67 95 65 / 30 20 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 78 103 77 103 75 / 20 20 20 10 10
LOMA LINDA 64 93 69 95 66 / 20 20 20 10 10
FABENS 73 102 75 102 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 74 100 73 100 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 97 72 99 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 67 98 65 100 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
HATCH 72 95 70 97 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 73 99 72 99 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 70 99 71 102 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 59 84 57 84 57 / 30 20 20 20 20
MESCALERO 53 87 53 85 53 / 30 20 20 10 10
TIMBERON 53 83 54 83 54 / 30 20 20 10 10
WINSTON 57 89 58 89 58 / 20 10 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 67 93 65 94 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 69 98 68 94 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 56 90 58 90 60 / 20 10 10 10 0
HURLEY 64 92 65 96 65 / 10 10 10 10 0
CLIFF 61 100 61 98 61 / 20 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 54 97 51 97 51 / 10 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 66 92 66 93 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 69 100 68 100 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 66 100 66 98 66 / 10 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 101 67 101 67 / 10 10 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 63 97 65 95 64 / 10 0 0 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161026
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
426 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A
RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM IN THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TOMORROW DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEING LIMITED TO MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. BY
MIDWEEK ONLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE ANY STORMS.
MOISTURE MAY RETURN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY WAS MORE STABLE IN SOME AREAS DUE TO RAINFALL THE
PREVIOUS DAY...BUT THE NM BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY
RECEIVED NEEDED RAINFALL. NOT NEARLY ENOUGH IN THIS
DROUGHT...BUT WE`LL TAKE ANYTHING. EARLY THIS MORNING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHUT DOWN EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN COLUMBUS
AND EL PASO FORMING ALONG AN OUTFLOW THAT ORIGINATED IN NORTHERN
OTERO COUNTY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
AREA TODAY BUT A FEW DISTURBANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP
THE AIR ALOFT FROM WARMING MUCH. THEREFORE ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED. ADDING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TO SURFACE HEATING WILL AID THE CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND
OFFSET THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW INFLUENCED BY A PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR TO THE WEST PORTION AND PUSH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FURTHER EAST MONDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND REDUCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING A MONSOONAL PATTERN WITH AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST...IF ONLY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OR
SO. IT`S ORIENTED SW TO NE WHICH ISN`T OPTIMAL...BUT IT`S THE BEST
ATTEMPT AT MONSOON 2013 YET. THEN SUPPOSEDLY THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT
BACK OVER US...WITH THE WESTERLIES STILL QUITE ACTIVE NOT FAR TO
THE NORTHWEST. OH WELL. ANYWAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING BACK
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN THE ECM THINKS SO.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z-17/12Z. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MINOR
IMPULSES MOVING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AREAWIDE...WITH MAINLY SCT TSRAGS OMTNS AND
ISOLD TSRAGS/BLDU OVER SURROUNDING LOWLANDS AFT 18Z TODAY. TSRA
WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING UP AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALLOW ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE WEST
STARTING MONDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND
ALLOWS STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL SERVE TO RESTRICT STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING A MINIMUM
MIDWEEK. FOR AREAS WEST...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST WILL BRING
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
OVERALL.
STORM CHANCES RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH
MOVES BACK WEST OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND ATTENDANT
CIRCULATION DRIVES THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FURTHER WESTWARD
OVER THIS AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR COMBINATION OF DRY LIGHTNING
WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...ARE FOUND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND MORE SO ON FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MIN RH TO FALL ROUGHLY 8-13% TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
SUBTLE INCREASE OF 3-6 % EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE EXPECTED EAST OF
THE RIVER ON TUESDAY.
HAINES INDICES OF 4-5 CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH 5 EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR
INDICES OF 5-6 MOST AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GILA REGION AND AREA
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...WILL SEE DAILY VALUES OF 6 AS A RESULT OF THE
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 100 72 101 73 102 / 10 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 97 70 98 68 99 / 20 20 20 20 10
LAS CRUCES 99 69 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 98 65 97 65 98 / 20 20 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 76 50 73 50 73 / 20 20 30 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 98 69 99 69 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 93 62 92 60 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEMING 99 67 100 66 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 99 66 100 65 100 / 10 10 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 98 75 99 75 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 99 64 100 62 96 / 20 20 20 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 101 75 102 72 103 / 10 20 20 20 10
LOMA LINDA 92 66 93 61 94 / 10 10 20 20 10
FABENS 101 71 102 70 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 98 71 99 70 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 97 72 97 70 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 99 65 98 64 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
HATCH 95 72 95 69 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 99 70 99 69 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 99 70 99 67 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 85 57 85 56 85 / 20 20 20 20 20
MESCALERO 86 51 85 53 87 / 20 20 20 20 10
TIMBERON 84 51 84 52 84 / 20 20 20 20 10
WINSTON 85 54 89 55 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 93 65 93 65 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 97 68 95 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 91 58 89 55 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
HURLEY 91 63 94 63 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 98 62 98 56 99 / 10 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 96 52 96 49 103 / 10 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 91 65 94 64 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 98 66 100 66 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 96 64 99 64 100 / 10 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 99 64 99 65 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 94 63 96 63 98 / 10 10 0 0 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
01 FAUSETT
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152129
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
329 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS BECOMING STRONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESS SURE WILL REBUILD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AN ONGOING
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL HOVER NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK MOST DAYS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY FOR MOST
AREAS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE NEXT
WEEK MAY IMPROVE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT BEING AIDED TO BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT
IS BEGINNING TO DEPART THE REGION TO THE EAST. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOWLAND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
OR GREATER. HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LESSER SPOTTY AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLAND DESERTS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH LARGER HAIL AND STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE BUT...OCCURRENCE SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. BLOWING DUST
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS OVER DUST
PRONE LOWLAND DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL RAMP DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AROUND THE MIDNIGHT
TIME FRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT AND REDUCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. THAT SAID...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWLANDS EAST OF THE
RIVER.
DRIER CONDITIONS OUT WEST ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. THIS DRIER WEST
FLOW WILL PUSH ALLOT OF THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY
OTERO..EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES HAVING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH LOWER 100`S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL LARGELY PERSIST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON THE
WESTERN PORTION.
A RE-ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE KEEPING A SLIM CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. MODELS DO
VARY ON THE TRACK OF THIS MODEST MOISTURE PLUME WITH SOME MODELS
PLACING MORE TO THE EAST...SO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO RAIN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURE WISE...HOT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 16/00Z-17/00Z.
ISOLATED TSRAGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO
MTNS THROUGH 03Z. WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WAVE MOVES UP NEAR TO WEST
OVER AZ OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AREAWIDE...WITH MAINLY SCT TSRAGS OMTNS AND
ISOLD TSRAGS/BLDU OVER SURROUNDING LOWLANDS AFT 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING UP AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AREAWIDE
FOR SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE WEST STARTING
MONDAY...AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND ALLOWS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS WILL SERVE TO RESTRICT STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR AREAS WEST...AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST WILL
BRING STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
OVERALL.
STORM CHANCES RETURN TO ALL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK...AS THE HIGH
MOVES BACK WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND ATTENDANT CIRCULATION
DRIVES THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THIS AREA.
THIS WILL PLACE THE MOISTURE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MOVEMENT
BACK INTO ALL AREAS FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR
COMBINATION OF DRY LIGHTNING WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...ARE FOUND WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MIN RH TO FALL ROUGHLY 8-13% SUNDAY TO MONDAY...WITH SUBTLE
INCREASE OF 3-6 % EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE EXPECTED EAST OF THE RIVER
ON TUESDAY.
HAINES INDICES OF 4-5 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 5
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR INDICES OF 5-6 MOST AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GILA REGION AND
AREA WEST OF THE DIVIDE...WILL SEE DAILY VALUES OF 6 AS A RESULT
OF THE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 73 99 72 101 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 70 96 70 98 68 / 20 20 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 71 98 69 100 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 67 97 65 97 65 / 30 20 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 50 76 50 75 50 / 40 20 20 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 97 69 99 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 61 92 62 92 60 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEMING 68 98 67 100 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 66 98 66 100 65 / 20 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 97 75 99 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 64 98 64 100 62 / 20 20 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 100 75 102 72 / 20 10 20 20 20
LOMA LINDA 66 91 66 93 61 / 30 10 10 20 20
FABENS 72 100 71 102 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 72 97 71 99 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 96 72 97 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 64 98 65 98 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
HATCH 69 94 72 95 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 69 98 70 99 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 70 98 70 99 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 57 84 57 85 56 / 40 20 20 20 20
MESCALERO 52 85 51 85 53 / 30 20 20 20 20
TIMBERON 51 83 51 84 52 / 30 20 20 20 20
WINSTON 56 84 54 89 55 / 20 10 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 66 92 65 93 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 67 96 68 95 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 56 90 58 89 55 / 20 10 10 10 10
HURLEY 62 90 63 94 63 / 20 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 60 97 62 98 56 / 20 10 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 51 95 52 96 49 / 20 10 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 65 90 65 94 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 66 97 66 100 66 / 20 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 66 95 64 99 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 98 64 99 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 63 93 63 96 63 / 30 10 10 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 150953
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
353 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY WITH MORE NUMEROUS STORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST...MAINLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE DRYING WILL COME A RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWLANDS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IMPORT IS
MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING IN...
PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE ON HAND FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
CONVECTION AREA WIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH STICKS AROUND FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. SOME STABILIZATION
FROM FRIDAY`S ACTIVITY SHOULD DELAY ONSET AND PERHAPS REDUCE
NUMBER OF STORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...BUT THE WEST IS GOOD TO
GO. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH MOISTURE SHIFTING FURTHER
EAST...SO ACCORDINGLY THE STORMS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS AND
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT WHERE AFTER TUESDAY ONLY THE SACS
SHOULD SEE A STORM OR TWO. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CAPPING WILL TAKE
PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE AS MODELS INDICATE A THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SEEMS OUT OF PLACE.
BY MIDWEEK A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHOULD INCREASE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE TROUGH RELOCATING
INTO THE PLAINS. TRIPLE DIGIT MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THEN.
SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT DRYING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND MORE
MODEST DRYING EAST. EVEN SO...MOISTURE WILL BE LURKING NOT FAR TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WITH HOT SURFACE TEMPS IT WON`T TAKE MUCH
TO SET OFF A FEW HIGH BASED BOOMERS...SO EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO
POPS MOST PLACES FROM WEDNESDAY ON A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL PUSH FROM
THE SOUTHEAST COULD CHANGE THINGS QUICKLY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 15/12Z-16/12Z. MUCH LIKE ON FRIDAY...SCATTERED
TSRA OVER THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE OUTFLOW WHICH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...BLOWING DUST...AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS CAN BE
EXPECTED...TEMPORARILY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 09Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THAN THE
GILA REGION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THE
LOWLANDS HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DROP SLOWLY EACH DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTH AS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS IN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP ENHANCE OR ORGANIZE STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DESPITE THE DECREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
OVERALL THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO GOOD RH RECOVERY THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS...THOUGH MAX RH WILL SLOWLY BE DROPPING EACH DAY.
AS TROUGHING TAKES OVER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE 12 TO 16 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 97 74 98 76 100 / 10 20 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 97 71 97 73 99 / 20 20 20 20 10
LAS CRUCES 96 71 97 72 99 / 20 20 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 95 68 96 67 97 / 30 30 20 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 73 52 75 52 75 / 40 40 20 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 95 70 96 70 98 / 30 20 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 89 65 90 65 92 / 30 20 10 10 10
DEMING 96 68 98 68 99 / 10 20 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 95 66 95 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 97 76 98 79 100 / 10 20 10 10 10
DELL CITY 96 62 98 63 97 / 20 20 20 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 100 74 102 76 104 / 10 20 10 20 10
LOMA LINDA 90 66 91 67 93 / 20 30 10 10 10
FABENS 99 70 101 73 102 / 10 20 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 97 71 97 74 99 / 10 20 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 96 72 96 73 98 / 20 30 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 97 64 96 64 99 / 20 20 10 10 10
HATCH 93 70 94 71 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 96 71 96 71 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 99 69 99 69 100 / 20 30 10 10 10
MAYHILL 84 59 83 58 84 / 50 40 20 20 30
MESCALERO 85 55 85 53 86 / 40 30 20 20 20
TIMBERON 83 55 83 54 83 / 40 30 20 20 20
WINSTON 85 60 85 58 90 / 30 20 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 91 68 91 68 93 / 30 20 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 96 66 94 67 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 89 63 87 62 91 / 30 20 10 10 10
HURLEY 88 66 91 67 93 / 20 20 10 10 10
CLIFF 97 63 95 62 100 / 30 20 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 93 50 93 51 96 / 30 20 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 92 67 92 68 93 / 20 20 10 10 10
ANIMAS 95 68 96 68 98 / 20 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 95 67 95 67 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 96 66 97 68 99 / 20 20 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 91 64 93 65 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
01 FAUSETT
| 
