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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232133
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH ROARED INTO THE BORDERLAND TODAY...WILL
EXIT TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DECREASING AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY...AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
STARTS TO INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR WEST WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH ITS WAY UNIMPEDED THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
STATE OF NEW MEXICO BY MIDNIGHT. HENCE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER AND DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS AIR IS ALSO VERY DRY AND
WILL PUSH OUR DEW POINTS INTO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG DOWN IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AND FURTHER DEEPEN THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST U.S. WHICH IN TURN WILL INTENSIFY
THE RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE F COOL DOWN OF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR OUR AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY FAST AND PROGRESSIVE 5 TO 6
WAVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET
VERY ACTIVE PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 35 DEGREES N LATITUDE. THUS OUR
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL START TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AFTER
MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER DRY SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND
THANKSGIVING FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD
SOME BUT THE NET RESULT WILL STILL BRING US WARMER AND CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WE SEE AT THIS TIME IS A MODERATE
TO STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND DECEMBER
3. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATIONS WITH
THIS SYTEM WHILE THE EURO IS LESS INTENSE IN AMPLITUDE AND BRINGS
IT ACROSS AS A MINOR DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEC 2.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS...HIGHEST EAST OF AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER MORE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THEY DIMINISH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
SKC-SCT300...WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS AS WELL.
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE AFFECTED A WIDER AREA OF THE
LOWLANDS THAN EXPECTED...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...
AND OUTSIDE OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...YIELDING MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.
ALSO EXPECT SOME FRIGID NIGHTS AHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 34  55  30  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           31  53  27  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              28  54  26  50  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              28  49  25  48  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  36  14  35  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   28  51  26  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             29  48  24  47  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  26  54  25  51  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  54  22  52  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      34  53  29  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               30  54  26  51  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            33  57  28  54  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  48  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  30  55  26  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            30  54  27  51  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          32  51  29  49  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           20  52  23  50  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   23  53  26  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                30  55  28  51  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               29  51  27  50  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 23  44  17  43  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               21  42  17  41  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  43  19  41  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 21  46  21  46  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               31  50  27  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               24  53  22  51  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            21  47  21  48  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  27  50  23  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   17  53  19  50  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              16  51  15  48  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 30  49  27  47  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  27  56  24  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 26  56  23  53  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          28  58  25  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  57  27  52  26 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ402-403-407>417.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

20/25 NOVLAN / HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232133
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH ROARED INTO THE BORDERLAND TODAY...WILL
EXIT TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DECREASING AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY...AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
STARTS TO INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR WEST WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH ITS WAY UNIMPEDED THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
STATE OF NEW MEXICO BY MIDNIGHT. HENCE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER AND DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS AIR IS ALSO VERY DRY AND
WILL PUSH OUR DEW POINTS INTO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG DOWN IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AND FURTHER DEEPEN THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST U.S. WHICH IN TURN WILL INTENSIFY
THE RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE F COOL DOWN OF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR OUR AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY FAST AND PROGRESSIVE 5 TO 6
WAVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET
VERY ACTIVE PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 35 DEGREES N LATITUDE. THUS OUR
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL START TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AFTER
MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER DRY SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND
THANKSGIVING FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD
SOME BUT THE NET RESULT WILL STILL BRING US WARMER AND CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WE SEE AT THIS TIME IS A MODERATE
TO STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND DECEMBER
3. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATIONS WITH
THIS SYTEM WHILE THE EURO IS LESS INTENSE IN AMPLITUDE AND BRINGS
IT ACROSS AS A MINOR DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEC 2.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS...HIGHEST EAST OF AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER MORE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THEY DIMINISH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
SKC-SCT300...WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS AS WELL.
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE AFFECTED A WIDER AREA OF THE
LOWLANDS THAN EXPECTED...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...
AND OUTSIDE OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...YIELDING MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.
ALSO EXPECT SOME FRIGID NIGHTS AHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 34  55  30  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           31  53  27  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              28  54  26  50  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              28  49  25  48  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  36  14  35  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   28  51  26  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             29  48  24  47  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  26  54  25  51  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  54  22  52  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      34  53  29  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               30  54  26  51  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            33  57  28  54  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  48  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  30  55  26  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            30  54  27  51  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          32  51  29  49  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           20  52  23  50  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   23  53  26  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                30  55  28  51  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               29  51  27  50  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 23  44  17  43  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               21  42  17  41  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  43  19  41  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 21  46  21  46  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               31  50  27  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               24  53  22  51  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            21  47  21  48  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  27  50  23  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   17  53  19  50  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              16  51  15  48  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 30  49  27  47  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  27  56  24  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 26  56  23  53  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          28  58  25  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  57  27  52  26 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ402-403-407>417.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

20/25 NOVLAN / HARDIMAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231025
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FLOW ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
HELP PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN A WARMUP...WITH HIGHS BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO MID WEEK AS A
SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS RIDE OVER A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FIRST TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BRINGING STRONG MID LEVELS WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY AND ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL
PRODUCE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WIND ADV FOR EAST SLOPE
ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE. A FEW OF THE NOTORIOUS SITES ALONG IN PASSES
AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED GUSTS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS SHOW STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASING SOME THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW
WILL ALSO DRAG REMNANTS OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT TO
BEGIN A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER MONDAY/TUESDAY.

EXPECT TEMPS MONDAY TO COOL ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIP THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR...TO DROP TUESDAY`S TEMPS ABOUT ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AND BEGIN TO RELAX WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER THE
CWA. FURTHER NORTH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND HELP
DEVELOP LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BEGIN TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN WARMUP. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM BACK TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. WARMUP WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL
THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT FINALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO CONTINUE WARM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH P6SM FEW-SCT250. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z. IN GENERAL EXPECT GUSTS 25-35 KTS 16Z THROUGH 00Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z. AT KELP
AN AWW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WINDS WILL REACH OR EXCEED CRITERIA
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
WHILE ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS AREAS JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS OUR
REGION THEREFORE NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH
VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...JUST HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA. NONE THE LESS THIS SITUATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE WHILE BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
LOWER MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AND DROP TEMPS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD DRY AIR
WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 65  35  56  30  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  32  54  27  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              63  29  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              63  29  50  25  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  19  37  14  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  29  52  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  30  49  24  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  64  27  55  25  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               63  26  55  22  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  35  54  29  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  31  55  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  34  58  28  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              60  35  49  29  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  68  31  56  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            64  31  55  27  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  33  52  29  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           65  21  53  23  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  24  54  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  31  56  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               64  30  52  27  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 50  24  45  17  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               49  22  43  17  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                52  24  44  19  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 54  22  47  21  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               61  32  51  27  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  25  54  22  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  22  48  21  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  58  28  51  23  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   61  18  54  19  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              58  17  52  15  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 59  31  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  64  28  57  24  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 66  27  57  23  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  29  59  25  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  31  58  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ413>416.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ419.

&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231025
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FLOW ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
HELP PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN A WARMUP...WITH HIGHS BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO MID WEEK AS A
SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS RIDE OVER A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FIRST TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BRINGING STRONG MID LEVELS WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY AND ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL
PRODUCE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WIND ADV FOR EAST SLOPE
ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE. A FEW OF THE NOTORIOUS SITES ALONG IN PASSES
AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED GUSTS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS SHOW STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASING SOME THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW
WILL ALSO DRAG REMNANTS OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT TO
BEGIN A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER MONDAY/TUESDAY.

EXPECT TEMPS MONDAY TO COOL ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIP THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR...TO DROP TUESDAY`S TEMPS ABOUT ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AND BEGIN TO RELAX WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER THE
CWA. FURTHER NORTH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND HELP
DEVELOP LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BEGIN TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN WARMUP. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM BACK TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. WARMUP WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL
THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT FINALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO CONTINUE WARM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH P6SM FEW-SCT250. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z. IN GENERAL EXPECT GUSTS 25-35 KTS 16Z THROUGH 00Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z. AT KELP
AN AWW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WINDS WILL REACH OR EXCEED CRITERIA
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
WHILE ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS AREAS JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS OUR
REGION THEREFORE NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH
VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...JUST HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA. NONE THE LESS THIS SITUATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO
SUBSIDE WHILE BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
LOWER MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AND DROP TEMPS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD DRY AIR
WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 65  35  56  30  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  32  54  27  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              63  29  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              63  29  50  25  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  19  37  14  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  29  52  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  30  49  24  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  64  27  55  25  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               63  26  55  22  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  35  54  29  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  31  55  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  34  58  28  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              60  35  49  29  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  68  31  56  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            64  31  55  27  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  33  52  29  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           65  21  53  23  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  24  54  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  31  56  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               64  30  52  27  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 50  24  45  17  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               49  22  43  17  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                52  24  44  19  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 54  22  47  21  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               61  32  51  27  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  25  54  22  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  22  48  21  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  58  28  51  23  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   61  18  54  19  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              58  17  52  15  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 59  31  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  64  28  57  24  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 66  27  57  23  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  29  59  25  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  31  58  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ413>416.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ419.

&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222213
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY AND WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL AID IN MIXING
DOWN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO...FRANKLIN AND SAN ANDRES
MOUNTAINS. AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES PAST THE BORDERLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND
SUBSIDE SOME BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO RISE NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE RECOVERED FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
WHICH PASSED TO OUR SOUTH LAST NIGHT BRINGING VERY LIGHT PCPN
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. THE RECOVERY IS DUE IN
PART TO FORCING OF THE THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM (SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE PACIFIC COLD FRONT) LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS DRY SYSTEM (FOR US) WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL START TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY TO OUR EAST AND WILL KEEP
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO KEEP OUR
OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS MIXED UP ENOUGH EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL IN TURN KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGHER WNDS ALOFT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HIGH ELEVATION AND EAST SLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE WILL START TO EXPERIENCE WINDS AROUND OR OVER 30 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PEAKING
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FAST
SYSTEM DROPPING DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES F MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER DRY AND MINOR SECOND COOL PUSH FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 3 OR 4 DEGREES. A SERIES OF MINOR SHORT WAVES
ALOFT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOME BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND BRINGING US
GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE
THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. FAVORED DOWNSLOPE/MOUNTAIN WAVE
AREAS MAY SEE STRONG GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AROUND 10Z OR SO. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF KELP...AND AWW CRITERIA WILL NOT
BE MET UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GUSTY WNW TO NW
WINDS WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE...AGAIN WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS
LIKELY EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. EXPECT AWW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
KELP TOMORROW FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE NW-NNW.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN NM
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF
DESERT MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE LOWLANDS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...
MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER RISKS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COOLER
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARMING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 46  64  35  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  66  32  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              40  65  29  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              41  63  29  49  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              31  42  19  35  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  63  29  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             36  57  29  49  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  37  65  27  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               34  63  26  54  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      47  64  36  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  65  31  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            42  68  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              42  60  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  42  67  31  55  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            41  65  31  54  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          47  64  33  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           30  64  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   33  65  24  53  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                42  64  31  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               41  63  30  51  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  49  24  44  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               33  48  22  42  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  51  24  43  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 34  54  22  47  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               40  61  31  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  65  25  53  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  56  22  48  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  60  27  51  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   26  62  19  53  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  60  17  52  14 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 39  59  30  50  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  37  66  28  57  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 36  67  27  57  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  68  29  58  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              39  66  31  58  26 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ413>416.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR TXZ419.

&&

$$

20/25 NOVLAN / HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222213
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY AND WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL AID IN MIXING
DOWN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO...FRANKLIN AND SAN ANDRES
MOUNTAINS. AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES PAST THE BORDERLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND
SUBSIDE SOME BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO RISE NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE RECOVERED FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
WHICH PASSED TO OUR SOUTH LAST NIGHT BRINGING VERY LIGHT PCPN
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. THE RECOVERY IS DUE IN
PART TO FORCING OF THE THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM (SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE PACIFIC COLD FRONT) LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS DRY SYSTEM (FOR US) WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL START TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY TO OUR EAST AND WILL KEEP
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO KEEP OUR
OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS MIXED UP ENOUGH EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL IN TURN KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGHER WNDS ALOFT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HIGH ELEVATION AND EAST SLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE WILL START TO EXPERIENCE WINDS AROUND OR OVER 30 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PEAKING
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FAST
SYSTEM DROPPING DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES F MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER DRY AND MINOR SECOND COOL PUSH FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 3 OR 4 DEGREES. A SERIES OF MINOR SHORT WAVES
ALOFT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOME BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND BRINGING US
GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE
THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. FAVORED DOWNSLOPE/MOUNTAIN WAVE
AREAS MAY SEE STRONG GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AROUND 10Z OR SO. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF KELP...AND AWW CRITERIA WILL NOT
BE MET UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...GUSTY WNW TO NW
WINDS WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE...AGAIN WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS
LIKELY EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. EXPECT AWW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
KELP TOMORROW FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE NW-NNW.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN NM
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF
DESERT MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE LOWLANDS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...
MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER RISKS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COOLER
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARMING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 46  64  35  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  66  32  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              40  65  29  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              41  63  29  49  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              31  42  19  35  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  63  29  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             36  57  29  49  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  37  65  27  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               34  63  26  54  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      47  64  36  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  65  31  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            42  68  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              42  60  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  42  67  31  55  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            41  65  31  54  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          47  64  33  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           30  64  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   33  65  24  53  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                42  64  31  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               41  63  30  51  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  49  24  44  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               33  48  22  42  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  51  24  43  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 34  54  22  47  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               40  61  31  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  65  25  53  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  56  22  48  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  60  27  51  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   26  62  19  53  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  60  17  52  14 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 39  59  30  50  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  37  66  28  57  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 36  67  27  57  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  68  29  58  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              39  66  31  58  26 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ413>416.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR TXZ419.

&&

$$

20/25 NOVLAN / HARDIMAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220949
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO THE BIG
BEND AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MASS OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST THROUGH OUT THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN. THOSE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER TODAY AND
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME WINDY. A COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE BORDERLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BUT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMING UP AFTER THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW NOW JUST SW OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. LOW HAS
BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT MOVEMENT
TODAY...REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW HAS
ALREADY ENTRAINED DRIER AIR WITH PW`S AROUND .33 INCHES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA...ALLOWING THE SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING THERE. CWA EAST
OF DEMING STILL MOSTLY OVERCAST WITH PW`S OF AROUND .50 INCHES.
PRECIP LOOKING PRETTY DOUBTFUL BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER MOSTLY OVER THE CWA FROM THE RIO GRAND EAST THIS MORNING AS
SLIGHT UPPER DYNAMICS PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DEWPOINTS AROUND
28-35 IN THIS AREA SO SOME DROPS COULD REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE
POP IN FOR HUDSPETH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE.
AIRMASS ACTUALLY SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
OTHERWISE SKIES CLEARING WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THE EAST COULD
EXCEED THE FORECAST IF CLEARING OCCURS BY NOON TIME.

MODERATE-STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MIX SOME WINDS
DOWN AND GIVE US A BREEZY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN
SUNDAY AND WITH A BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY/SUNDAY...BUT PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY EVENING TO DROP MONDAY/TUESDAY BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES OF COOLING BOTH DAYS FROM SUNDAY`S
LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...WARMING BACK UP AS UPPER
HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL DAMPEN OUT THE NORTHWEST/NORTH NEAR SURFACE FLOW...AND WITH BIT
BETTER CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES NORTH OF US...ALLOW
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND TURN
SURFACE WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK
JUST BELOW NORMAL AND THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS STRONG
TROUGH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD GIVE AT LEAST
THE MOUNTAINS A SHOT AT PRECIP. ECMWF TAKES PERHAPS THE SAME FEATURE
BUT KEEPS IT MUCH WEAKER AND MOVES IT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
IMPACT FOR US. STILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE
THIS PERIOD MOVES INTO MAIN FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN070-090
CEILINGS INITIALLY WILL LIFT TO FEW-SCT120-150 THROUGH 18Z. AFTER
18Z SKC FOR MOST TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS 34006KT TO START THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING 27012G20KT AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 40
TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEY WILL DROP TO BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH SOME
SPOTS TO NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
QUICKLY PASS US BY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING WITH THESE SYSTEMS SO NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP FROM AROUND NORMAL TODAY TO BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK BEFORE MODERATING AGAIN
BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  45  64  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  39  66  33  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  39  65  30  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  40  63  30  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              45  30  42  20  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  38  63  30  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  35  57  30  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  36  65  28  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  33  63  27  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  46  64  37  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67  38  65  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            67  41  68  35  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  41  60  35  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  41  67  32  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            66  40  65  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  46  64  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  33  64  26  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   67  36  65  29  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  41  64  32  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               66  40  63  31  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  35  49  25  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               55  32  48  23  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  31  51  25  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 59  33  54  23  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               63  39  61  32  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               67  34  65  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  31  56  23  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  35  60  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   64  28  62  22  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  23  60  20  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  38  59  31  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  67  36  66  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 68  35  67  28  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  38  68  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  38  66  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220949
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO THE BIG
BEND AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MASS OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST THROUGH OUT THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN. THOSE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER TODAY AND
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME WINDY. A COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE BORDERLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BUT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMING UP AFTER THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW NOW JUST SW OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. LOW HAS
BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT MOVEMENT
TODAY...REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW HAS
ALREADY ENTRAINED DRIER AIR WITH PW`S AROUND .33 INCHES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA...ALLOWING THE SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING THERE. CWA EAST
OF DEMING STILL MOSTLY OVERCAST WITH PW`S OF AROUND .50 INCHES.
PRECIP LOOKING PRETTY DOUBTFUL BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER MOSTLY OVER THE CWA FROM THE RIO GRAND EAST THIS MORNING AS
SLIGHT UPPER DYNAMICS PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DEWPOINTS AROUND
28-35 IN THIS AREA SO SOME DROPS COULD REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE
POP IN FOR HUDSPETH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE.
AIRMASS ACTUALLY SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
OTHERWISE SKIES CLEARING WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THE EAST COULD
EXCEED THE FORECAST IF CLEARING OCCURS BY NOON TIME.

MODERATE-STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MIX SOME WINDS
DOWN AND GIVE US A BREEZY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN
SUNDAY AND WITH A BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY/SUNDAY...BUT PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY EVENING TO DROP MONDAY/TUESDAY BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES OF COOLING BOTH DAYS FROM SUNDAY`S
LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...WARMING BACK UP AS UPPER
HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL DAMPEN OUT THE NORTHWEST/NORTH NEAR SURFACE FLOW...AND WITH BIT
BETTER CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES NORTH OF US...ALLOW
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND TURN
SURFACE WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK
JUST BELOW NORMAL AND THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS STRONG
TROUGH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD GIVE AT LEAST
THE MOUNTAINS A SHOT AT PRECIP. ECMWF TAKES PERHAPS THE SAME FEATURE
BUT KEEPS IT MUCH WEAKER AND MOVES IT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
IMPACT FOR US. STILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE
THIS PERIOD MOVES INTO MAIN FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN070-090
CEILINGS INITIALLY WILL LIFT TO FEW-SCT120-150 THROUGH 18Z. AFTER
18Z SKC FOR MOST TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS 34006KT TO START THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING 27012G20KT AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 40
TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEY WILL DROP TO BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH SOME
SPOTS TO NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
QUICKLY PASS US BY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING WITH THESE SYSTEMS SO NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP FROM AROUND NORMAL TODAY TO BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK BEFORE MODERATING AGAIN
BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  45  64  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  39  66  33  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  39  65  30  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  40  63  30  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              45  30  42  20  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  38  63  30  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  35  57  30  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  36  65  28  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  33  63  27  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  46  64  37  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67  38  65  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            67  41  68  35  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  41  60  35  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  41  67  32  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            66  40  65  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  46  64  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  33  64  26  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   67  36  65  29  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  41  64  32  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               66  40  63  31  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  35  49  25  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               55  32  48  23  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  31  51  25  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 59  33  54  23  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               63  39  61  32  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               67  34  65  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  31  56  23  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  35  60  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   64  28  62  22  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  23  60  20  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  38  59  31  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  67  36  66  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 68  35  67  28  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  38  68  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  38  66  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220949
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO THE BIG
BEND AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MASS OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST THROUGH OUT THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN. THOSE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER TODAY AND
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME WINDY. A COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE BORDERLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BUT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMING UP AFTER THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW NOW JUST SW OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. LOW HAS
BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT MOVEMENT
TODAY...REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW HAS
ALREADY ENTRAINED DRIER AIR WITH PW`S AROUND .33 INCHES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA...ALLOWING THE SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING THERE. CWA EAST
OF DEMING STILL MOSTLY OVERCAST WITH PW`S OF AROUND .50 INCHES.
PRECIP LOOKING PRETTY DOUBTFUL BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER MOSTLY OVER THE CWA FROM THE RIO GRAND EAST THIS MORNING AS
SLIGHT UPPER DYNAMICS PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DEWPOINTS AROUND
28-35 IN THIS AREA SO SOME DROPS COULD REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE
POP IN FOR HUDSPETH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE.
AIRMASS ACTUALLY SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
OTHERWISE SKIES CLEARING WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THE EAST COULD
EXCEED THE FORECAST IF CLEARING OCCURS BY NOON TIME.

MODERATE-STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MIX SOME WINDS
DOWN AND GIVE US A BREEZY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN
SUNDAY AND WITH A BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY/SUNDAY...BUT PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY EVENING TO DROP MONDAY/TUESDAY BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES OF COOLING BOTH DAYS FROM SUNDAY`S
LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...WARMING BACK UP AS UPPER
HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL DAMPEN OUT THE NORTHWEST/NORTH NEAR SURFACE FLOW...AND WITH BIT
BETTER CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES NORTH OF US...ALLOW
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND TURN
SURFACE WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK
JUST BELOW NORMAL AND THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS STRONG
TROUGH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD GIVE AT LEAST
THE MOUNTAINS A SHOT AT PRECIP. ECMWF TAKES PERHAPS THE SAME FEATURE
BUT KEEPS IT MUCH WEAKER AND MOVES IT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
IMPACT FOR US. STILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE
THIS PERIOD MOVES INTO MAIN FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN070-090
CEILINGS INITIALLY WILL LIFT TO FEW-SCT120-150 THROUGH 18Z. AFTER
18Z SKC FOR MOST TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS 34006KT TO START THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING 27012G20KT AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 40
TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEY WILL DROP TO BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH SOME
SPOTS TO NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
QUICKLY PASS US BY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING WITH THESE SYSTEMS SO NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP FROM AROUND NORMAL TODAY TO BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK BEFORE MODERATING AGAIN
BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  45  64  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  39  66  33  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  39  65  30  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  40  63  30  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              45  30  42  20  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  38  63  30  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  35  57  30  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  36  65  28  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  33  63  27  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  46  64  37  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67  38  65  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            67  41  68  35  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  41  60  35  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  41  67  32  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            66  40  65  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  46  64  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  33  64  26  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   67  36  65  29  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  41  64  32  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               66  40  63  31  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  35  49  25  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               55  32  48  23  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  31  51  25  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 59  33  54  23  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               63  39  61  32  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               67  34  65  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  31  56  23  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  35  60  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   64  28  62  22  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  23  60  20  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  38  59  31  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  67  36  66  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 68  35  67  28  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  38  68  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  38  66  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220949
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO THE BIG
BEND AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MASS OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST THROUGH OUT THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN. THOSE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER TODAY AND
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME WINDY. A COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE BORDERLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BUT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMING UP AFTER THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW NOW JUST SW OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. LOW HAS
BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT MOVEMENT
TODAY...REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW HAS
ALREADY ENTRAINED DRIER AIR WITH PW`S AROUND .33 INCHES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA...ALLOWING THE SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING THERE. CWA EAST
OF DEMING STILL MOSTLY OVERCAST WITH PW`S OF AROUND .50 INCHES.
PRECIP LOOKING PRETTY DOUBTFUL BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER MOSTLY OVER THE CWA FROM THE RIO GRAND EAST THIS MORNING AS
SLIGHT UPPER DYNAMICS PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DEWPOINTS AROUND
28-35 IN THIS AREA SO SOME DROPS COULD REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE
POP IN FOR HUDSPETH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE.
AIRMASS ACTUALLY SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
OTHERWISE SKIES CLEARING WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THE EAST COULD
EXCEED THE FORECAST IF CLEARING OCCURS BY NOON TIME.

MODERATE-STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MIX SOME WINDS
DOWN AND GIVE US A BREEZY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN
SUNDAY AND WITH A BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY/SUNDAY...BUT PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY EVENING TO DROP MONDAY/TUESDAY BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES OF COOLING BOTH DAYS FROM SUNDAY`S
LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...WARMING BACK UP AS UPPER
HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL DAMPEN OUT THE NORTHWEST/NORTH NEAR SURFACE FLOW...AND WITH BIT
BETTER CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES NORTH OF US...ALLOW
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND TURN
SURFACE WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK
JUST BELOW NORMAL AND THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS STRONG
TROUGH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD GIVE AT LEAST
THE MOUNTAINS A SHOT AT PRECIP. ECMWF TAKES PERHAPS THE SAME FEATURE
BUT KEEPS IT MUCH WEAKER AND MOVES IT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
IMPACT FOR US. STILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE
THIS PERIOD MOVES INTO MAIN FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN070-090
CEILINGS INITIALLY WILL LIFT TO FEW-SCT120-150 THROUGH 18Z. AFTER
18Z SKC FOR MOST TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS 34006KT TO START THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING 27012G20KT AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 40
TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...THEY WILL DROP TO BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH SOME
SPOTS TO NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
QUICKLY PASS US BY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING WITH THESE SYSTEMS SO NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP FROM AROUND NORMAL TODAY TO BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK BEFORE MODERATING AGAIN
BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  45  64  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  39  66  33  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  39  65  30  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  40  63  30  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              45  30  42  20  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  38  63  30  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  35  57  30  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  36  65  28  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  33  63  27  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  46  64  37  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67  38  65  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            67  41  68  35  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  41  60  35  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  41  67  32  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            66  40  65  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  46  64  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  33  64  26  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   67  36  65  29  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  41  64  32  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               66  40  63  31  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  35  49  25  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               55  32  48  23  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  31  51  25  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 59  33  54  23  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               63  39  61  32  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               67  34  65  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  31  56  23  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  35  60  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   64  28  62  22  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  23  60  20  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  38  59  31  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  67  36  66  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 68  35  67  28  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  38  68  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  38  66  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212222
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
322 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THANKSGIVING...WITH FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW OVER SW
ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
BY MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S OVER
MOST OF ARIZONA...IT IS LIKELY ALL VIRGA EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
SONORA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ARE ALSO IN THE
20S...AND THE SAME GOES FOR NORTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA. SO IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT WE CAN ADVECT IN ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AREA-WIDE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ROLL INTO THE BIG BEND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN
ITS WAKE...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 5
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD
FRONT. MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
700 MB WINDS RUNNING 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS... ESPECIALLY EXPOSED RIDGE LINE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SUNSPOT. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY... AND MAY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ON MONDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY STUCK IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING
ALOFT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL NOT RECOVERY QUICKLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL BY FRIDAY. SO THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BRING FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-60S IN THE LOWLANDS
TO THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...
VFR THRU THE PD. INCREASING LAYERS FROM FL180 TO FL300. DVLPG AFT
03Z...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LSB-ALM LINE...OCNL BKN090 ISOLD -SHRA. SFC
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST
12-17 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...VFR THRU THE
PD. INCREASING LAYERS FROM FL180 TO FL300. DVLPG AFT 03Z...MOSTLY
SOUTH OF LSB-ALM LINE...OCNL BKN090 ISOLD -SHRA. SFC WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 12-17 KTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT...SPREADING
CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LORDSBURG TO ALAMOGORDO
LINE. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY
LITTLE CLOUDS. ALSO BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME BREEZY
TO WINDY AS MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED SUNDAY BUT RH`S SHOULD REMAIN A BIT
TOO HIGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK AHEAD WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN. MIN RH`S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 18-23% FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 25-35% ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 45  66  44  62  35 /  20   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           44  64  37  62  32 /  20  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              38  64  37  61  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              37  66  38  59  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  44  33  40  20 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   34  64  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             34  58  33  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  35  66  34  61  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  62  31  59  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      47  64  44  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  67  37  66  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            44  67  40  66  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              42  60  39  56  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  43  67  40  65  31 /  20   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            42  65  40  61  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          43  65  44  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           32  65  31  60  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  66  34  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                41  64  40  60  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               39  65  38  59  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  54  37  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               31  54  34  46  23 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  55  33  49  25 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 30  58  33  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               38  62  37  57  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               30  66  32  61  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            30  57  31  52  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  33  60  33  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   29  63  27  60  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  62  21  56  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 36  60  36  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  65  34  62  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  66  33  63  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          38  65  36  64  29 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              38  63  36  62  30 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 17-HEFNER







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212158
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
258 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THANKSGIVING...WITH FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW OVER SW
ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
BY MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S OVER
MOST OF ARIZONA...IT IS LIKELY ALL VIRGA EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
SONORA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ARE ALSO IN THE
20S...AND THE SAME GOES FOR NORTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA. SO IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT WE CAN ADVECT IN ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AREA-WIDE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ROLL INTO THE BIG BEND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN
ITS WAKE...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 5
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD
FRONT. MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
700 MB WINDS RUNNING 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS... ESPECIALLY EXPOSED RIDGE LINE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SUNSPOT. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY... AND MAY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ON MONDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY STUCK IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING
ALOFT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL NOT RECOVERY QUICKLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL BY FRIDAY. SO THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BRING FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-60S IN THE LOWLANDS
TO THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...
VFR THRU THE PD. INCREASING LAYERS FROM FL180 TO FL300. DVLPG AFT
03Z...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LSB-ALM LINE...OCNL BKN090 ISOLD -SHRA. SFC
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST
12-17 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...VFR THRU THE
PD. INCREASING LAYERS FROM FL180 TO FL300. DVLPG AFT 03Z...MOSTLY
SOUTH OF LSB-ALM LINE...OCNL BKN090 ISOLD -SHRA. SFC WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 12-17 KTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT...SPREADING
CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LORDSBURG TO ALAMOGORDO
LINE. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY
LITTLE CLOUDS. ALSO BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME BREEZY
TO WINDY AS MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED SUNDAY BUT RH`S SHOULD REMAIN A BIT
TOO HIGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK AHEAD WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN. MIN RH`S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 18-23% FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 25-35% ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  45  66  44  64 /   0  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           69  44  64  37  62 /   0  20  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  38  64  37  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  37  66  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  30  44  33  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  34  64  36  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  34  58  33  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  67  35  66  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               67  33  62  31  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  47  64  44  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67  39  67  37  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            74  44  67  40  66 /   0  20  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  42  60  39  56 /   0  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  72  43  67  40  65 /   0  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  42  65  40  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  43  65  44  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           65  32  65  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  34  66  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  41  64  40  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  39  65  38  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  34  54  37  47 /   0  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               58  31  54  34  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                57  33  55  33  49 /   0  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 57  30  58  33  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               61  38  62  37  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               64  30  66  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  30  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  62  33  60  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   62  29  63  27  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              62  21  62  21  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  36  60  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  67  36  65  34  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 67  35  66  33  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          68  38  65  36  64 /   0  20   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              67  38  63  36  62 /   0  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 17-HEFNER







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212158
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
258 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THANKSGIVING...WITH FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW OVER SW
ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
BY MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S OVER
MOST OF ARIZONA...IT IS LIKELY ALL VIRGA EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
SONORA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ARE ALSO IN THE
20S...AND THE SAME GOES FOR NORTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA. SO IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT WE CAN ADVECT IN ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AREA-WIDE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ROLL INTO THE BIG BEND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN
ITS WAKE...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 5
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD
FRONT. MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
700 MB WINDS RUNNING 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS... ESPECIALLY EXPOSED RIDGE LINE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SUNSPOT. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY... AND MAY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ON MONDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY STUCK IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING
ALOFT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL NOT RECOVERY QUICKLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL BY FRIDAY. SO THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BRING FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-60S IN THE LOWLANDS
TO THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...
VFR THRU THE PD. INCREASING LAYERS FROM FL180 TO FL300. DVLPG AFT
03Z...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LSB-ALM LINE...OCNL BKN090 ISOLD -SHRA. SFC
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST
12-17 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...VFR THRU THE
PD. INCREASING LAYERS FROM FL180 TO FL300. DVLPG AFT 03Z...MOSTLY
SOUTH OF LSB-ALM LINE...OCNL BKN090 ISOLD -SHRA. SFC WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 12-17 KTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT...SPREADING
CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LORDSBURG TO ALAMOGORDO
LINE. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY
LITTLE CLOUDS. ALSO BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME BREEZY
TO WINDY AS MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED SUNDAY BUT RH`S SHOULD REMAIN A BIT
TOO HIGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK AHEAD WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN. MIN RH`S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 18-23% FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 25-35% ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  45  66  44  64 /   0  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           69  44  64  37  62 /   0  20  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  38  64  37  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  37  66  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  30  44  33  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  34  64  36  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  34  58  33  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  67  35  66  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               67  33  62  31  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  47  64  44  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67  39  67  37  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            74  44  67  40  66 /   0  20  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  42  60  39  56 /   0  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  72  43  67  40  65 /   0  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  42  65  40  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  43  65  44  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           65  32  65  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  34  66  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  41  64  40  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  39  65  38  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  34  54  37  47 /   0  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               58  31  54  34  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                57  33  55  33  49 /   0  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 57  30  58  33  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               61  38  62  37  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               64  30  66  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  30  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  62  33  60  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   62  29  63  27  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              62  21  62  21  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  36  60  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  67  36  65  34  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 67  35  66  33  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          68  38  65  36  64 /   0  20   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              67  38  63  36  62 /   0  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 17-HEFNER






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211127
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
427 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE WARM BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AS AN AREA
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE WARM WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WE WILL BE DRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...THINGS ARE LOOKING GOOD WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
THEY WILL GET THICKER AND LOWER A LITTLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND. CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER AND
FURTHER SOUTH...SO I HAVE PULLED THE POPS FROM THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE PAIRED BACK THE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF
THE GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED WE WILL SEE HARDLY ANY RAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
FOR THIS SET OF GRIDS I HAVE DONE SOME TRIMMING BUT HAVEN`T PULLED
THE POPS ALL TOGETHER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A QUICK ONE SO BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING IT WILL BE TO OUR EAST. FOR SATURDAY AND THEN
INTO SUNDAY WE WILL SEE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION SO WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX A
LITTLE WAYS UP AND GRAB SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS AND BRING THEM
DOWN TO THE SURFACE SO SATURDAY WILL APPROACH BREEZY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION SO OUR
HIGHS WILL DROP 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION SO
OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
RAISING THE WHITE FLAG AND IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
WITH HAVING AN UPPER LEVEL RIG DE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD GIVE US SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TO ENJOY SOME TIME WITH FAMILY AND TO EAT SOME
TURKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z
WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WE WILL SEE CEILINGS OF BKN250...BUT BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO BKN120
IN SOME LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. I`M ONLY EXPECTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS WE SEE THE APPROACH OF A
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE SO I`M NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND ON SUNDAY A LITTLE STRONGER AT 15
TO 25 MPH. MIN RH`S THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 20`S IN THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MIN
RH`S WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND INTO
THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  43  65  43  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  41  62  39  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  39  63  38  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              63  39  62  39  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  30  48  31  45 /   0  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   60  36  63  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             58  38  58  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  35  64  36  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               65  33  62  32  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  44  63  44  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  39  65  38  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71  41  67  41  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  44  60  39  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  40  65  39  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  42  64  40  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  42  63  40  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  33  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   65  35  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  40  63  39  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               64  41  63  38  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  33  56  35  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               56  33  55  32  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  34  55  34  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 57  33  58  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               61  38  62  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  34  64  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  32  57  30  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  34  60  32  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   62  37  62  28  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              62  36  61  23  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  37  59  35  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  65  37  65  34  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 65  35  64  35  65 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  37  65  36  67 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  39  65  35  66 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211127
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
427 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE WARM BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AS AN AREA
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE WARM WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WE WILL BE DRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...THINGS ARE LOOKING GOOD WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
THEY WILL GET THICKER AND LOWER A LITTLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND. CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER AND
FURTHER SOUTH...SO I HAVE PULLED THE POPS FROM THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE PAIRED BACK THE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF
THE GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED WE WILL SEE HARDLY ANY RAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
FOR THIS SET OF GRIDS I HAVE DONE SOME TRIMMING BUT HAVEN`T PULLED
THE POPS ALL TOGETHER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A QUICK ONE SO BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING IT WILL BE TO OUR EAST. FOR SATURDAY AND THEN
INTO SUNDAY WE WILL SEE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION SO WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX A
LITTLE WAYS UP AND GRAB SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS AND BRING THEM
DOWN TO THE SURFACE SO SATURDAY WILL APPROACH BREEZY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION SO OUR
HIGHS WILL DROP 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION SO
OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
RAISING THE WHITE FLAG AND IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
WITH HAVING AN UPPER LEVEL RIG DE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD GIVE US SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TO ENJOY SOME TIME WITH FAMILY AND TO EAT SOME
TURKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z
WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WE WILL SEE CEILINGS OF BKN250...BUT BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO BKN120
IN SOME LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. I`M ONLY EXPECTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS WE SEE THE APPROACH OF A
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE SO I`M NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND ON SUNDAY A LITTLE STRONGER AT 15
TO 25 MPH. MIN RH`S THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 20`S IN THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MIN
RH`S WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND INTO
THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  43  65  43  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  41  62  39  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  39  63  38  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              63  39  62  39  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  30  48  31  45 /   0  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   60  36  63  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             58  38  58  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  35  64  36  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               65  33  62  32  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  44  63  44  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  39  65  38  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71  41  67  41  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  44  60  39  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  40  65  39  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  42  64  40  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  42  63  40  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  33  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   65  35  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  40  63  39  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               64  41  63  38  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  33  56  35  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               56  33  55  32  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  34  55  34  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 57  33  58  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               61  38  62  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  34  64  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  32  57  30  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  34  60  32  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   62  37  62  28  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              62  36  61  23  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  37  59  35  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  65  37  65  34  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 65  35  64  35  65 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  37  65  36  67 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  39  65  35  66 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15







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