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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A LARGE
PACIFIC STORM PROGRESSES INLAND. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT ALONG WITH
MOISTURE MOVING UP TO THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DESERT COULD PRODUCE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY FROM EL PASO WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE WARM...WITH THE FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS OF THE SEASON
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DESERT. THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE OVER
ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF EL PASO ON FRIDAY...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
FOR THE MOST PART. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE STORM SKIPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE UP TO
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN DESERT AREA OF NEW
MEXICO. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM EL PASO WEST. STRONG
CONVERGENCE/DRY BOUNDARY LINE WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT
COINCIDENTAL TO THE THE DIVIDE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MOVING EAST
TOWARD EL PASO IN THE EVENING. MODELS SHOW BROAD AREA OF MUCAPES
OF 200-500 J/KG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE
ALONG WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO DON`T EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 13,000 FT COULD ALLOW SMALL
HAIL TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM...WITH OUR
FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE DESERT AREAS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS PACIFIC STORM MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR WEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF THURSDAY EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO. WINDS WILL PICK
UP...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM EL PASO WEST. MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE JUST BELOW. SATURDAY THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE OVER ARIZONA. THE PACIFIC FRONT LIKELY PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT SO WINDS WILL BE A BIT LESS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE PACIFIC STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING. AFTER A
COOL SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...05/12Z-06/12Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD. 00Z-18Z FEW-SCT080-100 SCT250 WINDS GNLY NE-
SE08G17KTS. WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO SSW AND INCRG GRADUALLY BY THU
AFTN. 18Z-00Z SCT080-100 SCT-BKN250 WINDS SW 12G22KTS. OCNL LGT
MECHANICAL TURBC OVR MTNS AFT 18Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREA THURSDAY. SOME LOWLANDS MAY SEE 90 DEGREES ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY
LIGHTNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. ORE STRONG DRY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY. MEAN RH WED AND THU AFTERNOONS: MAINLY 10% TO 15%
LOWLANDS AND 15% TO 20% ABOVE 7500 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 62  90  64  93 /   0   0  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  86  60  91 /   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              54  88  57  89 /   0  10  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  88  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              38  66  40  68 /   0  10   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  87  58  87 /   0  10  20   0
SILVER CITY             49  83  50  82 /   0  20  20   0
DEMING                  53  88  54  86 /   0  20  20   0
LORDSBURG               55  90  52  85 /   0  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      62  89  63  92 /   0   0  20   0
DELL CITY               47  88  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            54  90  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              54  86  61  90 /   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  57  89  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  89  60  91 /   0  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  88  59  89 /   0   0  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  88  48  89 /   0   0  20   0
HATCH                   48  91  53  90 /   0  10  20   0
COLUMBUS                56  90  57  90 /   0  20  20   0
OROGRANDE               53  88  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 40  77  46  79 /   0  10   0  10
MESCALERO               38  77  44  79 /   0  10   0  10
TIMBERON                38  74  42  78 /   0  10   0  10
WINSTON                 40  81  41  81 /   0  20  20   0
HILLSBORO               48  86  53  85 /   0  20  20   0
SPACEPORT               47  88  49  88 /   0   0  20   0
LAKE ROBERTS            40  83  42  81 /   0  20  20   0
HURLEY                  48  85  52  83 /   0  20  20   0
CLIFF                   40  88  42  83 /   0  20  10   0
MULE CREEK              39  88  42  83 /   0  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 48  87  50  84 /   0  20  20   0
ANIMAS                  53  89  50  85 /   0  10   0   0
HACHITA                 51  90  53  87 /   0  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  88  50  84 /   0  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              52  86  52  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ110>112.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041029
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
429 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL TODAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. EL PASO MAY SEE 90 DEGREES FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE OVER ON FRIDAY, BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
DRY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND A DEEP
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AS EXPECTED IT IS A LITTLE GUSTY ON
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS PEAKING
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...MOSTLY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS EAST OF
I-10.

DESPITE THE SE WIND A CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING FOR ANOTHER DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CLIMB ABOUT 5 OR 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AS MAX
TEMPS FLIRT WITH 90 AT EL PASO.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AS A NARROW
BAND OF LOWER 40S DEWPOINTS SNEAKS IN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE INTO
SW NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST
OF THE AREA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE RIO...WITH THE TROUGH PROVIDING SOME
LARGER SCALE LIFT. END RESULT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOMEWHAT
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA...AND MOSTLY WEAKENING AS
THEY TRY AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE.

WEAK INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO SW NEW MEXICO.

THE MAIN RISK FROM T-STORMS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SW WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OFF THE
WEST COAST MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE ON FRIDAY...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY.

BREEZY TO WINDY...BUT COOLER...CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z-05/12Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD SKIES BETWEEN SKC AFT 06Z FEW 150. PREDOMINANT
WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT AT
KTCS WHERE WINDS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE SOUTH. STRONGER WINDS WILL
BE SEEN IN THE MORNING HOURS... SPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LOWER 90S. ALSO A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AFTER THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING BEHIND THE RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
STRENGTHEN THE WINDS... AS WELL AS COOL THE TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE WEEKEND. FOR THESE REASONS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS STARTING THIS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS. TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  62  90  63 /   0   0   0  20
SIERRA BLANCA           83  55  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              83  54  88  56 /   0   0  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              83  50  88  58 /   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              61  42  65  43 /   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  53  87  57 /   0   0  10  20
SILVER CITY             80  51  83  49 /   0   0  20  20
DEMING                  84  53  88  53 /   0   0  20  20
LORDSBURG               85  55  90  51 /   0   0  20   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      84  62  89  62 /   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               83  47  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            86  54  90  61 /   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              81  56  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  86  57  89  61 /   0   0   0  20
SANTA TERESA            84  57  89  59 /   0   0  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  55  88  58 /   0   0   0  20
JORNADA RANGE           84  47  88  51 /   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   86  48  91  52 /   0   0  10  20
COLUMBUS                85  56  90  56 /   0   0  20  20
OROGRANDE               84  53  88  60 /   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 71  44  76  48 /   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               71  42  76  46 /   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                70  42  73  44 /   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 74  43  79  42 /   0   0  20  20
HILLSBORO               80  50  84  50 /   0   0  20  20
SPACEPORT               83  49  88  52 /   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            79  42  81  41 /   0   0  20  20
HURLEY                  79  50  83  49 /   0   0  20  20
CLIFF                   85  46  88  45 /   0   0  20  20
MULE CREEK              84  44  86  43 /   0   0  20   0
FAYWOOD                 80  50  85  47 /   0   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  86  53  89  49 /   0   0  10   0
HACHITA                 85  51  90  52 /   0   0  20  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  56  88  49 /   0   0  20   0
CLOVERDALE              85  54  84  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 29-CRESPO





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031947
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
147 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SOME SPOTS FINALLY REACHING 90 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED AFTERNOON
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER REMAINS PLEASANT ACROSS MOST OF THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A QUICK LOOK AT IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS AS THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE A RENEWED EAST PUSH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER WINDS IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS SUCH AS ALONG THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS.

THIS EAST PUSH WILL NOT BE BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR COOLER AIR. AS SUCH WE WILL SEE A QUICK WARM
UP WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY AND MORE SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING OUR
FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS OF THE SEASON. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
ALSO TRANSPORT IN JUST A BIT OF EXTRA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW
POINTS INCREASING TO AROUND AROUND 40 F BRIEFLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THURSDAY
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH SB CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI OF
-1C TO -2C AS THE AFTERNOON HEATS UP. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING PAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE COMING ASHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND THE SAME TIME.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SLOWLY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED GRADIENTS AND STRONGER WINDS. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND WINDY WITH AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT
FOR THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z-05/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW120-150 THRU PD. NE WINDS THRU 12Z AOB 12KTS EXCEPT
AROUND KDMN AND WRN MTN SLOPES WHERE SPEEDS OF 10-20KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E TO SE AFT 12Z FM 8-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FAR WEST THU AND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE FRIDAY WHERE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE ROCKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL DAYS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH AND ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  85  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           53  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              51  83  56  88 /   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              48  83  51  88 /   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              37  60  43  65 /  10   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  82  53  87 /   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             46  80  54  83 /   0   0   0  20
DEMING                  51  83  53  88 /   0   0   0  20
LORDSBURG               50  85  56  90 /   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  84  62  89 /   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               46  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  86  57  89 /   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              53  80  57  84 /   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  55  86  61  88 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            52  83  57  88 /   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  83  58  88 /   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           43  84  49  88 /   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   46  86  50  91 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                51  85  56  90 /   0   0   0  20
OROGRANDE               54  84  55  88 /   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 41  69  44  75 /  10   0   0  10
MESCALERO               41  71  44  76 /  10   0   0  10
TIMBERON                40  69  43  73 /  10   0   0  10
WINSTON                 37  74  43  79 /  10   0   0  20
HILLSBORO               47  80  52  84 /   0   0   0  20
SPACEPORT               46  83  51  88 /   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            36  79  46  81 /  10   0   0  20
HURLEY                  47  79  52  83 /   0   0   0  20
CLIFF                   38  85  49  87 /   0   0   0  20
MULE CREEK              40  84  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  80  53  85 /   0   0   0  20
ANIMAS                  50  85  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 49  85  55  90 /   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  85  58  88 /   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              50  85  56  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031105
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
505 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHERN GRANT, SIERRA, AND OTERO
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED SLOW WARM UP, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME MOISTURE
TRIES TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST. THE WINDS AND DUST OF SPRING WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN IS IN PLACE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ALBERTA SOUTHWARD INTO UTAH
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO ITS SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CURVES WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN ARIZONA
WILL PHASE WITH THIS TROUGH TODAY AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND CLIPS
NEW MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN, A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRANT AND OTERO COUNTY.

A WEAK EASTERLY PUSH WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. I HAD TO RESIST THE TEMPTATION TO CALL
IT A BACKDOOR FRONT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE BETWEEN
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WITH
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND A LACK OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE OVER THE
PLAINS, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT EITHER. BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO TAP
SOME MODIFIED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER 40S AS FAR WEST AS THE ARIZONA BORDER.

WITH THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EXPECT
SOME BREEZY OVERNIGHTS/MORNINGS WEST OF THE FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS.
WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.

DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES IN, DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOOST IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM...AND MAX TEMPS WILL FLIRT
WITH 90 AT EL PASO THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST, AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE KEY WILL BE THE QUALITY OF
THE MOISTURE. NOTE THE GFS KEEPS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHEREAS THE NAM SPIKES THEM
INTO THE 40S.

FOR THE MEDIUM AND LONGER RANGE...A DEEP AND BROAD UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY FRIDAY.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS TO THE EAST, WE WILL SEE
INCREASINGLY BREEZY/DRY SW WINDS WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKING
PARTICULARLY WINDY AND POSSIBLY DUSTY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS FLIRTING WITH 90 AGAIN ON FRIDAY...AND A
LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT SE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING IN MOST AREAS. A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GRANT AND
OTERO COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES IN SIERRA COUNTY (INCLUDING AT
TCS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT
TEENS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED DRY LIGHTNING RISK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOMEWHAT FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. BESIDES SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  58  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           80  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              79  51  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              79  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  37  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   75  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             76  46  79  47 /  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               82  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      80  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               80  46  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            83  54  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              77  53  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            80  52  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          78  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           79  43  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   81  46  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               77  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  41  69  44 /  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               66  41  71  41 /  20  10   0   0
TIMBERON                65  40  69  41 /  10  10   0   0
WINSTON                 68  37  74  40 /  10  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               74  47  80  49 /  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  46  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  36  79  38 /  10  10   0   0
HURLEY                  75  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   80  38  85  42 /  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              79  40  84  40 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  46  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  50  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  51  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              80  50  84  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022155
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE
BORDERLAND TONIGHT AND TUSSUAD...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
OVER AND WARMS TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY
TUSSUAD AND THERESITA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
WINDS BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER IN THE WEEK...WHILE MAINTAINING
WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANGES FOR MOUNTAIN STORMS RETURN
AT THAT TIME AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH MORE COOLER
WEATHER ON TAP THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CON`S...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES AND
ACTIVE STD CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS FROM
WESTERN AZ. SUBTLE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ARE WORKING WITH SCANT SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...IN
GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE GILL REGION AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS AT THIS TIME.

THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS TONIGHT...THEN COMBINE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM HIGHS QUICKLY BACK ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REGION. WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...AS WARM AIR EDIFICATION OVERTAKES THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A BROAD OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK


IMPACTS TONIGHT: EAST WINDS OCCASIONALY GUSTING TO 20 MPH OR
HIGHER FOR WEST EL PASO. DOWN SLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW
OUT OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FRIDAY: BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY WITH
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER. MIX DOWN OF STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DUE IN NEXT WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WOULD LEAD TO
THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION. AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT EFFECIENCY OF MOMENTUM MIX DOWN AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z-04/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW080-100 THRU PD. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AOB 12KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT
TEENS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
HIGHS APPROACH 90 LATE IN THE WEEK...SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES ARE
POSSIBLE AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. BESIDES SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 50  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           44  79  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              46  79  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              44  78  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              33  58  38  62 /   0  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   45  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             42  74  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  80  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               47  82  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  81  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               41  78  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            47  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              45  77  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  48  82  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          48  79  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           42  78  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  81  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                48  82  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  78  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  64  40  70 /   0  10   0   0
MESCALERO               35  65  40  70 /   0  10   0   0
TIMBERON                36  64  40  71 /   0  10   0   0
WINSTON                 36  70  40  76 /   0  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               43  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               44  78  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            35  73  38  78 /   0  10   0   0
HURLEY                  42  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   39  80  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  78  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 42  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 47  82  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          47  83  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/22/26





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022155
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE
BORDERLAND TONIGHT AND TUSSUAD...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
OVER AND WARMS TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY
TUSSUAD AND THERESITA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
WINDS BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER IN THE WEEK...WHILE MAINTAINING
WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANGES FOR MOUNTAIN STORMS RETURN
AT THAT TIME AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH MORE COOLER
WEATHER ON TAP THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CON`S...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES AND
ACTIVE STD CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS FROM
WESTERN AZ. SUBTLE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ARE WORKING WITH SCANT SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...IN
GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE GILL REGION AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS AT THIS TIME.

THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS TONIGHT...THEN COMBINE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM HIGHS QUICKLY BACK ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REGION. WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...AS WARM AIR EDIFICATION OVERTAKES THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A BROAD OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK


IMPACTS TONIGHT: EAST WINDS OCCASIONALY GUSTING TO 20 MPH OR
HIGHER FOR WEST EL PASO. DOWN SLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW
OUT OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FRIDAY: BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY WITH
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER. MIX DOWN OF STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DUE IN NEXT WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WOULD LEAD TO
THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION. AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT EFFECIENCY OF MOMENTUM MIX DOWN AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z-04/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW080-100 THRU PD. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AOB 12KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT
TEENS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
HIGHS APPROACH 90 LATE IN THE WEEK...SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES ARE
POSSIBLE AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. BESIDES SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 50  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           44  79  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              46  79  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              44  78  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              33  58  38  62 /   0  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   45  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             42  74  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  80  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               47  82  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  81  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               41  78  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            47  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              45  77  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  48  82  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          48  79  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           42  78  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  81  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                48  82  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  78  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  64  40  70 /   0  10   0   0
MESCALERO               35  65  40  70 /   0  10   0   0
TIMBERON                36  64  40  71 /   0  10   0   0
WINSTON                 36  70  40  76 /   0  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               43  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               44  78  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            35  73  38  78 /   0  10   0   0
HURLEY                  42  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   39  80  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  78  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 42  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 47  82  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          47  83  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/22/26





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020917
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH CHILLY CANADIAN AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THUS TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SLOW MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INDUCED
BY BROAD TROUGHING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF
HIGH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR MAY UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SYSTEM
SUBSEQUENTLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. APPROACH OF SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY STRENGTHEN GRADIENTS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER LATEST GFS...ECMWF
AND SUPERBLEND ARE TRENDING TO SLOWLY REDUCE WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS NOW EXPECTED TO TO BREEZY TO
MARGINALLY WINDY SATURDAY AND BREEZY AT BEST ON SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA CAUSING WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FINALLY
DEEP WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW
INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z.
AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EAST OF AN ELP-ALM LINE THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH NO CEILINGS BELOW 15,000 FEET AGL AND AREAS OF
SCT070-120. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH CHILLY CANADIAN AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER HIGHER MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH CAUSING RED FLAG CONDITIONS MOST AREAS. COOLER AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  51  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           66  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              69  47  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              47  34  59  39 /   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  46  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             65  43  75  48 /   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  71  48  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               72  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  52  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               65  42  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            70  48  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  71  49  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            70  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  49  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           69  43  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   72  45  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                73  49  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               67  49  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 52  35  65  41 /   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               56  36  66  41 /   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                54  37  65  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 61  37  71  42 /   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               68  44  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  36  74  40 /   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  65  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   71  40  81  44 /   0   0  10  10
MULE CREEK              70  39  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 68  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  74  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 73  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          75  48  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  47  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020917
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH CHILLY CANADIAN AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THUS TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SLOW MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INDUCED
BY BROAD TROUGHING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF
HIGH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR MAY UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SYSTEM
SUBSEQUENTLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. APPROACH OF SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY STRENGTHEN GRADIENTS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER LATEST GFS...ECMWF
AND SUPERBLEND ARE TRENDING TO SLOWLY REDUCE WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS NOW EXPECTED TO TO BREEZY TO
MARGINALLY WINDY SATURDAY AND BREEZY AT BEST ON SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA CAUSING WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FINALLY
DEEP WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW
INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z.
AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EAST OF AN ELP-ALM LINE THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH NO CEILINGS BELOW 15,000 FEET AGL AND AREAS OF
SCT070-120. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH CHILLY CANADIAN AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER HIGHER MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH CAUSING RED FLAG CONDITIONS MOST AREAS. COOLER AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  51  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           66  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              69  47  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              47  34  59  39 /   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  46  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             65  43  75  48 /   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  71  48  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               72  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  52  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               65  42  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            70  48  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  71  49  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            70  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  49  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           69  43  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   72  45  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                73  49  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               67  49  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 52  35  65  41 /   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               56  36  66  41 /   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                54  37  65  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 61  37  71  42 /   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               68  44  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  36  74  40 /   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  65  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   71  40  81  44 /   0   0  10  10
MULE CREEK              70  39  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 68  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  74  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 73  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          75  48  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  47  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





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