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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012250
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
350 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE BORDERLAND FOR MOST THE WORKWEEK. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE ARIZONA
BORDER AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE BREEZY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO DOWN TOWARDS
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
EAST STRONG WINDS...MUCH COLDER WEATHER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. DRIER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW...WITH HIGHS WARMING SLOWLY NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST W/V IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH SPLIT JET CONFIGURATION FAVORING
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OVER SO CAL. NORTHERLY COMPONENT/ACTIVE PAC JET
CONTINUES TO ADVECT AIR FROM VERY COLD SOURCE REGIONS OVER NW
CANADA INTO THE LOW...WHILE CARRYING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN AND
ESSENTIALLY REPLACE THE CUTOFF LOW AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUTOFF LOW TO
QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST MONDAY OVER NV AND UT AS AN OPEN WAVE.
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WILL HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUR WAY MONDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN TO START THE WORKWEEK.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY MONDAY...WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. WITH WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX TROUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
HIGH...ABOVE 8000 FEET. AMOUNTS IN THE GILA AND SACS MONDAY SHOULD
BE LIGHT...ENDING UP NEAR AN INCH AT MOST. LOWLAND RAINFALL MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. GFS
AND EXMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO QUICKEN THE TRANSITORY PERIOD
MONDAY...WHEN THE INITIAL CUT OFF LOW EJECTS AS THE OPEN WAVE.
IT IS DURING THIS TIME WHEN ADVECTION OF THE SUB TROPCIAL MOISTURE
WOULD BE BEST UTILIZED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AREA SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE SECOND IMPACT...WITH BREEZY TO
POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN THE
ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER...TUESDAY APPEARS THE DAY WITH MORE WINDS
AT LEAST WRT TO LOW LEVEL CONTRIBUTING MECHANISMS. WITH 2ND DAY
AFTER THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES...IT WILL BE A LITTLE EASIER FOR
THE GENERATION OF LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THAT
TIME.

THIRD IMPACT WILL BE FROM A MUCH STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DUE IN WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS JUNCTURE...A COLD BLUSTERY
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS 20 DEGREES COOLER IS NOT UNREASONABLE. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL HOLDING ON TO THAT. HOWEVER RECALLING THE IMPULSE I
MENTIONED ABOVE REPLACING THE TROUGH. DURING THE TIME WHEN THAT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES...MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THAT FEATURE
FURTHER AS THE OTHER OPEN WAVE MOVING OVER US AT THE SAME TIME.
BOTTOM LINE...WE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WITH OVERRUNNING
OVER THE FRONT...HOWEVER SNOW AMOUNTS...IF ANY...LOOK LESS AND
LESS FOR WEST TEXAS/SE NM AT THAT TIME.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING
NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z...
THRU 12Z...P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN250 WITH SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
ESE AOB 12KTS. AFT 12Z...SCT-BKN060-080 BKN-OVC150 WITH SCT -SHRA
BKN040-060. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING BACK TO SW AT 15-20G30KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE COMMON THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EVEN IN
THE LOWLANDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
GRADUAL WARM UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 50  68  50  62  43 /   0  20  40  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  65  50  62  41 /   0   0  30  20  10
LAS CRUCES              46  67  42  59  37 /   0  20  40  30   0
ALAMOGORDO              45  63  44  59  36 /   0  20  40  30  10
CLOUDCROFT              33  45  29  40  26 /  10  30  60  40  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   43  63  41  58  35 /   0  20  30  20   0
SILVER CITY             40  56  33  47  31 /  20  40  60  20  20
DEMING                  43  65  40  60  34 /   0  30  40  20   0
LORDSBURG               42  64  37  55  33 /  10  30  50  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  70  49  61  43 /   0  20  40  20   0
DELL CITY               42  65  45  64  38 /   0  10  30  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            49  70  52  65  44 /   0   0  30  20   0
LOMA LINDA              47  61  46  56  39 /   0  20  30  30   0
FABENS                  48  69  50  63  42 /   0  20  40  20   0
SANTA TERESA            48  69  46  61  40 /   0  20  40  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          48  65  47  60  39 /   0  20  40  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           40  66  40  60  32 /   0  20  40  30   0
HATCH                   44  67  43  61  35 /   0  20  30  20   0
COLUMBUS                47  66  44  60  39 /   0  20  30  30   0
OROGRANDE               48  66  47  62  40 /   0  20  40  30   0
MAYHILL                 37  53  35  49  29 /  10  30  60  30  10
MESCALERO               34  53  32  48  29 /  10  30  60  40  10
TIMBERON                38  54  36  47  30 /  10  30  60  30  10
WINSTON                 39  57  34  50  30 /  10  40  50  20  10
HILLSBORO               43  61  39  53  34 /   0  30  40  20  10
SPACEPORT               41  65  39  60  33 /   0  20  30  20   0
LAKE ROBERTS            37  54  32  47  29 /  20  50  60  20  20
HURLEY                  40  59  35  51  31 /  10  40  50  20  10
CLIFF                   39  61  34  54  30 /  10  40  50  20  20
MULE CREEK              34  57  28  49  25 /  20  40  50  20  20
FAYWOOD                 43  60  37  52  33 /   0  40  40  20  10
ANIMAS                  44  66  39  58  35 /  10  30  60  20  10
HACHITA                 43  67  39  59  34 /   0  30  40  30   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          44  67  41  59  35 /  10  30  60  30  10
CLOVERDALE              44  64  38  54  35 /  10  30  60  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012250
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
350 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE BORDERLAND FOR MOST THE WORKWEEK. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE ARIZONA
BORDER AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE BREEZY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO DOWN TOWARDS
MIDWEEK FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
EAST STRONG WINDS...MUCH COLDER WEATHER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. DRIER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW...WITH HIGHS WARMING SLOWLY NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST W/V IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH SPLIT JET CONFIGURATION FAVORING
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OVER SO CAL. NORTHERLY COMPONENT/ACTIVE PAC JET
CONTINUES TO ADVECT AIR FROM VERY COLD SOURCE REGIONS OVER NW
CANADA INTO THE LOW...WHILE CARRYING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN AND
ESSENTIALLY REPLACE THE CUTOFF LOW AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUTOFF LOW TO
QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST MONDAY OVER NV AND UT AS AN OPEN WAVE.
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WILL HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUR WAY MONDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN TO START THE WORKWEEK.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY MONDAY...WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. WITH WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX TROUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
HIGH...ABOVE 8000 FEET. AMOUNTS IN THE GILA AND SACS MONDAY SHOULD
BE LIGHT...ENDING UP NEAR AN INCH AT MOST. LOWLAND RAINFALL MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. GFS
AND EXMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO QUICKEN THE TRANSITORY PERIOD
MONDAY...WHEN THE INITIAL CUT OFF LOW EJECTS AS THE OPEN WAVE.
IT IS DURING THIS TIME WHEN ADVECTION OF THE SUB TROPCIAL MOISTURE
WOULD BE BEST UTILIZED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AREA SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE SECOND IMPACT...WITH BREEZY TO
POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN THE
ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER...TUESDAY APPEARS THE DAY WITH MORE WINDS
AT LEAST WRT TO LOW LEVEL CONTRIBUTING MECHANISMS. WITH 2ND DAY
AFTER THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES...IT WILL BE A LITTLE EASIER FOR
THE GENERATION OF LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THAT
TIME.

THIRD IMPACT WILL BE FROM A MUCH STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DUE IN WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS JUNCTURE...A COLD BLUSTERY
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS 20 DEGREES COOLER IS NOT UNREASONABLE. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL HOLDING ON TO THAT. HOWEVER RECALLING THE IMPULSE I
MENTIONED ABOVE REPLACING THE TROUGH. DURING THE TIME WHEN THAT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES...MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THAT FEATURE
FURTHER AS THE OTHER OPEN WAVE MOVING OVER US AT THE SAME TIME.
BOTTOM LINE...WE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WITH OVERRUNNING
OVER THE FRONT...HOWEVER SNOW AMOUNTS...IF ANY...LOOK LESS AND
LESS FOR WEST TEXAS/SE NM AT THAT TIME.

DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING
NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z...
THRU 12Z...P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN250 WITH SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
ESE AOB 12KTS. AFT 12Z...SCT-BKN060-080 BKN-OVC150 WITH SCT -SHRA
BKN040-060. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING BACK TO SW AT 15-20G30KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE COMMON THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EVEN IN
THE LOWLANDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
GRADUAL WARM UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 50  68  50  62  43 /   0  20  40  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  65  50  62  41 /   0   0  30  20  10
LAS CRUCES              46  67  42  59  37 /   0  20  40  30   0
ALAMOGORDO              45  63  44  59  36 /   0  20  40  30  10
CLOUDCROFT              33  45  29  40  26 /  10  30  60  40  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   43  63  41  58  35 /   0  20  30  20   0
SILVER CITY             40  56  33  47  31 /  20  40  60  20  20
DEMING                  43  65  40  60  34 /   0  30  40  20   0
LORDSBURG               42  64  37  55  33 /  10  30  50  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  70  49  61  43 /   0  20  40  20   0
DELL CITY               42  65  45  64  38 /   0  10  30  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            49  70  52  65  44 /   0   0  30  20   0
LOMA LINDA              47  61  46  56  39 /   0  20  30  30   0
FABENS                  48  69  50  63  42 /   0  20  40  20   0
SANTA TERESA            48  69  46  61  40 /   0  20  40  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          48  65  47  60  39 /   0  20  40  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           40  66  40  60  32 /   0  20  40  30   0
HATCH                   44  67  43  61  35 /   0  20  30  20   0
COLUMBUS                47  66  44  60  39 /   0  20  30  30   0
OROGRANDE               48  66  47  62  40 /   0  20  40  30   0
MAYHILL                 37  53  35  49  29 /  10  30  60  30  10
MESCALERO               34  53  32  48  29 /  10  30  60  40  10
TIMBERON                38  54  36  47  30 /  10  30  60  30  10
WINSTON                 39  57  34  50  30 /  10  40  50  20  10
HILLSBORO               43  61  39  53  34 /   0  30  40  20  10
SPACEPORT               41  65  39  60  33 /   0  20  30  20   0
LAKE ROBERTS            37  54  32  47  29 /  20  50  60  20  20
HURLEY                  40  59  35  51  31 /  10  40  50  20  10
CLIFF                   39  61  34  54  30 /  10  40  50  20  20
MULE CREEK              34  57  28  49  25 /  20  40  50  20  20
FAYWOOD                 43  60  37  52  33 /   0  40  40  20  10
ANIMAS                  44  66  39  58  35 /  10  30  60  20  10
HACHITA                 43  67  39  59  34 /   0  30  40  30   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          44  67  41  59  35 /  10  30  60  30  10
CLOVERDALE              44  64  38  54  35 /  10  30  60  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011130
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE AND BRING WITH IT SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE
LOWLANDS. WE WILL SEE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE COMING
WEEK. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD GIVE US WARM AND PLEASANT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. TO
OUR WEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY A SHORT WAVE/TROUGH WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND TRY AND GIVE US SOME
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST (AND STRONGEST) OF THESE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...FIRST OUT WEST MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK PRETTY
HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE ABOVE 8K. THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO GRAB SOME
MOISTURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC...SO IT WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO WORK
WITH. I`M STILL NOT THINKING WE WILL SEE MUCH SNOW OR RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. ON WEDNESDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL DROP OUR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEN ON THURSDAY THINGS GET
INTERESTING.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT AT THE SURFACE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE
REGION. BUT AT THE SAME TIME ALOFT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT WHAT IS THERE IT MAKES GOOD USE OF.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME LOWLAND SNOW SHOWERS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW I`VE LEFT THE FORECAST SAYING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EL PASO...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE SAYING IT COULD BE
ALL SNOW. FOR NOW IT IS TO EARLY TO BE TALKING ABOUT OFFICIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE SAYING 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE. WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO GO. MY GUESS IS THAT AS WE
GET CLOSER THE COLD AIR WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD BET...BUT THE LACK
OF MOISTURE MAY KEEP MUCH FROM HAPPENING. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE WILL BE WARMER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. WE MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE A HIGH LEVEL CEILING
THIS AFTERNOON OF SCT-BKN250. THEN LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z WE WILL
SEE LOWER CEILINGS ARRIVE OF BKN100. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM
180-240 AT AROUND 10 KTS. WE MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE US
LOWER MIN RH`S AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. ON MONDAY WE WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ON
MONDAY SHOULD PICK UP BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. WE WILL AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE MONDAY WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
COOLER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THEN ON THURSDAY
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAINS
SNOWS OR LOWLAND RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. NEXT
WEEKEND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  51  72  51  65 /   0   0  20  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA           71  48  71  51  64 /   0   0  10  30  20
LAS CRUCES              70  47  68  43  62 /   0   0  20  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              68  46  67  45  62 /   0   0  20  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              49  34  48  30  43 /   0  10  30  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  44  64  42  61 /   0   0  20  30  20
SILVER CITY             56  41  57  34  50 /  20  20  40  60  30
DEMING                  67  43  66  41  63 /   0   0  30  40  20
LORDSBURG               64  42  65  38  58 /   0  10  30  50  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  52  71  50  64 /   0   0  20  40  20
DELL CITY               71  43  71  46  66 /   0   0  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            75  50  75  53  68 /   0   0  20  30  20
LOMA LINDA              65  48  66  47  59 /   0   0  20  30  30
FABENS                  75  49  73  51  66 /   0   0  20  40  20
SANTA TERESA            71  49  70  47  64 /   0   0  20  40  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  49  68  48  63 /   0   0  20  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           67  41  67  41  63 /   0   0  20  40  20
HATCH                   68  45  68  44  64 /   0   0  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                67  48  67  45  63 /   0   0  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               70  49  70  48  65 /   0   0  20  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  38  57  36  52 /   0  10  30  60  30
MESCALERO               56  35  56  33  51 /   0  10  30  60  40
TIMBERON                56  39  57  37  50 /   0  10  30  60  30
WINSTON                 56  40  58  35  53 /  10  10  40  50  20
HILLSBORO               61  44  62  40  56 /   0   0  30  40  20
SPACEPORT               67  42  66  40  63 /   0   0  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            55  38  55  33  50 /  20  20  50  60  30
HURLEY                  59  41  60  36  54 /   0  10  40  50  20
CLIFF                   62  40  62  35  57 /  20  10  40  50  30
MULE CREEK              58  35  58  29  52 /  20  20  40  50  30
FAYWOOD                 59  44  61  38  55 /   0   0  30  40  20
ANIMAS                  65  45  67  40  61 /   0  10  30  60  30
HACHITA                 67  44  68  40  62 /   0   0  30  40  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  45  68  42  62 /   0  10  30  60  30
CLOVERDALE              63  45  65  39  57 /   0  10  30  60  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011130
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE AND BRING WITH IT SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE
LOWLANDS. WE WILL SEE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE COMING
WEEK. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD GIVE US WARM AND PLEASANT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. TO
OUR WEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY A SHORT WAVE/TROUGH WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND TRY AND GIVE US SOME
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST (AND STRONGEST) OF THESE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...FIRST OUT WEST MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK PRETTY
HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE ABOVE 8K. THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO GRAB SOME
MOISTURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC...SO IT WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO WORK
WITH. I`M STILL NOT THINKING WE WILL SEE MUCH SNOW OR RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. ON WEDNESDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL DROP OUR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEN ON THURSDAY THINGS GET
INTERESTING.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT AT THE SURFACE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE
REGION. BUT AT THE SAME TIME ALOFT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT WHAT IS THERE IT MAKES GOOD USE OF.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME LOWLAND SNOW SHOWERS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW I`VE LEFT THE FORECAST SAYING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EL PASO...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE SAYING IT COULD BE
ALL SNOW. FOR NOW IT IS TO EARLY TO BE TALKING ABOUT OFFICIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE SAYING 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE. WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO GO. MY GUESS IS THAT AS WE
GET CLOSER THE COLD AIR WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD BET...BUT THE LACK
OF MOISTURE MAY KEEP MUCH FROM HAPPENING. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE WILL BE WARMER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. WE MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE A HIGH LEVEL CEILING
THIS AFTERNOON OF SCT-BKN250. THEN LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z WE WILL
SEE LOWER CEILINGS ARRIVE OF BKN100. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM
180-240 AT AROUND 10 KTS. WE MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE US
LOWER MIN RH`S AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. ON MONDAY WE WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ON
MONDAY SHOULD PICK UP BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. WE WILL AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE MONDAY WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
COOLER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THEN ON THURSDAY
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAINS
SNOWS OR LOWLAND RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. NEXT
WEEKEND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  51  72  51  65 /   0   0  20  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA           71  48  71  51  64 /   0   0  10  30  20
LAS CRUCES              70  47  68  43  62 /   0   0  20  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              68  46  67  45  62 /   0   0  20  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              49  34  48  30  43 /   0  10  30  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  44  64  42  61 /   0   0  20  30  20
SILVER CITY             56  41  57  34  50 /  20  20  40  60  30
DEMING                  67  43  66  41  63 /   0   0  30  40  20
LORDSBURG               64  42  65  38  58 /   0  10  30  50  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  52  71  50  64 /   0   0  20  40  20
DELL CITY               71  43  71  46  66 /   0   0  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            75  50  75  53  68 /   0   0  20  30  20
LOMA LINDA              65  48  66  47  59 /   0   0  20  30  30
FABENS                  75  49  73  51  66 /   0   0  20  40  20
SANTA TERESA            71  49  70  47  64 /   0   0  20  40  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  49  68  48  63 /   0   0  20  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           67  41  67  41  63 /   0   0  20  40  20
HATCH                   68  45  68  44  64 /   0   0  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                67  48  67  45  63 /   0   0  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               70  49  70  48  65 /   0   0  20  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  38  57  36  52 /   0  10  30  60  30
MESCALERO               56  35  56  33  51 /   0  10  30  60  40
TIMBERON                56  39  57  37  50 /   0  10  30  60  30
WINSTON                 56  40  58  35  53 /  10  10  40  50  20
HILLSBORO               61  44  62  40  56 /   0   0  30  40  20
SPACEPORT               67  42  66  40  63 /   0   0  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            55  38  55  33  50 /  20  20  50  60  30
HURLEY                  59  41  60  36  54 /   0  10  40  50  20
CLIFF                   62  40  62  35  57 /  20  10  40  50  30
MULE CREEK              58  35  58  29  52 /  20  20  40  50  30
FAYWOOD                 59  44  61  38  55 /   0   0  30  40  20
ANIMAS                  65  45  67  40  61 /   0  10  30  60  30
HACHITA                 67  44  68  40  62 /   0   0  30  40  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  45  68  42  62 /   0  10  30  60  30
CLOVERDALE              63  45  65  39  57 /   0  10  30  60  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT INVADES
THE BORDERLAND LATER NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOL DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE SUSTAINED INFLOW OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RUNNING LOWER THAN EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CAUSING STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WITH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
HOPEFULLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY TO SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION.

THINGS BECOME EVEN MORE COMPLEX ON MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW FORMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOTH SUSTAIN WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY AND ALSO ADVECT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT
AROUND .75 INCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT UPPER WAVE TO EJECT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL GENERATE INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE RAIN WILL FALL MOST LOCATIONS
ON MONDAY BUT COOLING WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND
7000 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUSTAINING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THUS EXPECT THREAT OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES DUE TO PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AFTER TUESDAY. THE GFS
SWEEPS THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER BUT
DRIER AIR SUBSEQUENTLY FLOWING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. IN
STARK CONTRAST THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN ALMOST STATIONARY CLOSED LOW
OVER ARIZONA DURING THIS WHILE WHILE MUCH COLDER SURFACE AIR
INTRUDES FROM THE EAST. THUS THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS CONSIDERABLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A HIGH THREAT OF SNOW LATER
PERIODS. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION AS IT
AGREES WITH THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT PLUS THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS AND
CANADIAN MODEL ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS. SO EXPECT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY WEATHER
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN050-070 BKN250 THRU 03Z WITH W TO SW WINDS OF
15-20G30KTS. AFT 03Z...FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN250 WITH S TO SW WINDS
AOB 12KTS. AFT 18Z FEW-SCT060-080 SCT250 WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SW 08-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OCCASIONAL BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL CONDITIONS DO NOT DEVELOP. THE
UPPER LOW MENTIONED EARLIER WILL START TO KICK OUT OF THE BAJA
REGION LATE MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR GENERALLY RAIN SHOWERS
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 45  73  49  71  51 /   0   0   0  20  40
SIERRA BLANCA           39  71  46  70  51 /   0   0   0  10  30
LAS CRUCES              39  70  45  67  43 /   0   0   0  20  40
ALAMOGORDO              40  68  44  66  45 /   0   0   0  20  40
CLOUDCROFT              30  49  32  47  30 /   0   0  10  30  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   41  64  42  63  42 /   0   0   0  20  30
SILVER CITY             37  56  39  56  34 /  20  20  20  40  60
DEMING                  38  67  41  65  41 /   0   0   0  30  40
LORDSBURG               37  64  40  64  38 /   0   0  10  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      47  72  50  70  50 /   0   0   0  20  40
DELL CITY               35  71  41  70  46 /   0   0   0  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            42  75  48  74  53 /   0   0   0  20  30
LOMA LINDA              43  65  46  65  47 /   0   0   0  20  30
FABENS                  42  75  47  72  51 /   0   0   0  20  40
SANTA TERESA            42  71  47  69  47 /   0   0   0  20  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          43  68  47  67  48 /   0   0   0  20  40
JORNADA RANGE           36  67  39  66  41 /   0   0   0  20  40
HATCH                   39  68  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  20  30
COLUMBUS                42  67  46  66  45 /   0   0   0  20  30
OROGRANDE               43  70  47  69  48 /   0   0   0  20  40
MAYHILL                 34  57  36  56  36 /   0   0  10  30  60
MESCALERO               31  56  33  55  33 /   0   0  10  30  60
TIMBERON                34  56  37  56  37 /   0   0  10  30  60
WINSTON                 37  56  38  57  35 /  20  10  10  40  50
HILLSBORO               41  61  42  61  40 /  10   0   0  30  40
SPACEPORT               36  67  40  65  40 /   0   0   0  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            35  55  36  54  33 /  30  20  20  50  60
HURLEY                  37  59  39  59  36 /  20   0  10  40  50
CLIFF                   37  62  38  61  35 /  30  20  10  40  50
MULE CREEK              31  58  33  57  29 /  30  20  20  40  50
FAYWOOD                 39  59  42  60  38 /  10   0   0  30  40
ANIMAS                  39  65  43  66  40 /   0   0  10  30  60
HACHITA                 38  67  42  67  40 /   0   0   0  30  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  67  43  67  42 /   0   0  10  30  60
CLOVERDALE              39  63  43  64  39 /   0   0  10  30  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT INVADES
THE BORDERLAND LATER NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE COOL DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE SUSTAINED INFLOW OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RUNNING LOWER THAN EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CAUSING STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WITH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
HOPEFULLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY TO SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION.

THINGS BECOME EVEN MORE COMPLEX ON MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW FORMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOTH SUSTAIN WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY AND ALSO ADVECT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT
AROUND .75 INCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT UPPER WAVE TO EJECT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL GENERATE INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE RAIN WILL FALL MOST LOCATIONS
ON MONDAY BUT COOLING WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND
7000 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUSTAINING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THUS EXPECT THREAT OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES DUE TO PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AFTER TUESDAY. THE GFS
SWEEPS THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER BUT
DRIER AIR SUBSEQUENTLY FLOWING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. IN
STARK CONTRAST THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN ALMOST STATIONARY CLOSED LOW
OVER ARIZONA DURING THIS WHILE WHILE MUCH COLDER SURFACE AIR
INTRUDES FROM THE EAST. THUS THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS CONSIDERABLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A HIGH THREAT OF SNOW LATER
PERIODS. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION AS IT
AGREES WITH THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT PLUS THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS AND
CANADIAN MODEL ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS. SO EXPECT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY WEATHER
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN050-070 BKN250 THRU 03Z WITH W TO SW WINDS OF
15-20G30KTS. AFT 03Z...FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN250 WITH S TO SW WINDS
AOB 12KTS. AFT 18Z FEW-SCT060-080 SCT250 WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SW 08-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OCCASIONAL BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL CONDITIONS DO NOT DEVELOP. THE
UPPER LOW MENTIONED EARLIER WILL START TO KICK OUT OF THE BAJA
REGION LATE MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR GENERALLY RAIN SHOWERS
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 45  73  49  71  51 /   0   0   0  20  40
SIERRA BLANCA           39  71  46  70  51 /   0   0   0  10  30
LAS CRUCES              39  70  45  67  43 /   0   0   0  20  40
ALAMOGORDO              40  68  44  66  45 /   0   0   0  20  40
CLOUDCROFT              30  49  32  47  30 /   0   0  10  30  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   41  64  42  63  42 /   0   0   0  20  30
SILVER CITY             37  56  39  56  34 /  20  20  20  40  60
DEMING                  38  67  41  65  41 /   0   0   0  30  40
LORDSBURG               37  64  40  64  38 /   0   0  10  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      47  72  50  70  50 /   0   0   0  20  40
DELL CITY               35  71  41  70  46 /   0   0   0  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            42  75  48  74  53 /   0   0   0  20  30
LOMA LINDA              43  65  46  65  47 /   0   0   0  20  30
FABENS                  42  75  47  72  51 /   0   0   0  20  40
SANTA TERESA            42  71  47  69  47 /   0   0   0  20  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          43  68  47  67  48 /   0   0   0  20  40
JORNADA RANGE           36  67  39  66  41 /   0   0   0  20  40
HATCH                   39  68  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  20  30
COLUMBUS                42  67  46  66  45 /   0   0   0  20  30
OROGRANDE               43  70  47  69  48 /   0   0   0  20  40
MAYHILL                 34  57  36  56  36 /   0   0  10  30  60
MESCALERO               31  56  33  55  33 /   0   0  10  30  60
TIMBERON                34  56  37  56  37 /   0   0  10  30  60
WINSTON                 37  56  38  57  35 /  20  10  10  40  50
HILLSBORO               41  61  42  61  40 /  10   0   0  30  40
SPACEPORT               36  67  40  65  40 /   0   0   0  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            35  55  36  54  33 /  30  20  20  50  60
HURLEY                  37  59  39  59  36 /  20   0  10  40  50
CLIFF                   37  62  38  61  35 /  30  20  10  40  50
MULE CREEK              31  58  33  57  29 /  30  20  20  40  50
FAYWOOD                 39  59  42  60  38 /  10   0   0  30  40
ANIMAS                  39  65  43  66  40 /   0   0  10  30  60
HACHITA                 38  67  42  67  40 /   0   0   0  30  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  67  43  67  42 /   0   0  10  30  60
CLOVERDALE              39  63  43  64  39 /   0   0  10  30  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281139
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
439 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE OUR CLOUDS INCREASE AND WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY WE
WILL DRY OUT BUT WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION HAVE GONE LIGHT (THOUGH HERE AT THE OFFICE THEY ARE STILL
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST). AS WE START TO MIX OUT TODAY WE
WILL SEE THE WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. AND WITH THE
WESTERLY WINDS WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP. IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM AS I WAS THINKING YESTERDAY AS THE COOL AIR IS STILL IN
PLACE. I WAS THINKING TODAY WE WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE NEAR NORMAL WILL WORK TODAY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUR WARMING TREND SO THAT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OUR ZONAL
FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND FLING IT UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AS THE
FIRST BIT OF ENERGY APPROACHES THE AREA WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION START OUT WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A PRETTY WARM
SYSTEM SO SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8K. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
HAD BEEN TRYING TO GIVE US SOME WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WIND DYNAMICS WILL BE MISSED TIMED AND
ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IS QUICKLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...JUST NOT AS STRONG AS WE HAD BEEN
THINKING. AFTER THE FIRST TROUGH GOES BY IT WILL USHER IN SOME
COOLER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL COOL OUR
TEMPERATURES SOME WHAT ON WEDNESDAY. THEN A THE SECOND TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE GONE IT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE TO WORK WITH AND SHOULD PASS QUIETLY BY. THEN ON
THURSDAY THE BEFORE MENTIONED FRONT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
TRY AND PUSH IN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS YEAR THE FRONT WILL
HAVE A STRUGGLE TO PUSH AGAINST THE WEST FLOW ALOFT. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL PUSH IN TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EAST OF THERE WE CAN EXPECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER
SOME...BUT STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-01/12Z
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT
FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST BUT BY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WE WILL
OCCASIONALLY SEE HIGH CEILINGS OF SCT-BKN250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE OUR COOLER EAST WINDS REPLACED TODAY BY WINDS FROM THE
WEST. THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP JUMP OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WE WILL
AGAIN SEE GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT LIKE TODAY THEY
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS. WE WILL BE COOLER...BUT DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND
IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER
VALUES BEFORE THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  48  73  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           60  42  71  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              62  42  70  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              58  43  68  44  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOUDCROFT              40  33  49  32  47 /  20   0   0  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  44  64  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             54  40  56  39  56 /  30  20  20  20  40
DEMING                  62  41  67  41  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
LORDSBURG               61  40  64  40  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  50  72  50  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               58  38  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            65  45  75  48  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              57  46  65  46  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  68  45  75  47  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            66  45  71  47  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  46  68  47  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
JORNADA RANGE           61  39  67  39  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   63  42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                61  45  67  46  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
OROGRANDE               61  46  70  47  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
MAYHILL                 49  37  57  36  56 /  20   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               48  34  56  33  55 /  20   0   0  10  30
TIMBERON                49  37  56  37  56 /  20   0   0  10  30
WINSTON                 46  40  56  38  57 /  30  20  10  10  20
HILLSBORO               56  44  61  42  61 /  20  10  10   0  30
SPACEPORT               59  39  67  40  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  38  55  36  54 /  30  30  20  20  50
HURLEY                  56  40  59  39  59 /  20  20  10  10  30
CLIFF                   60  40  62  38  61 /  20  30  20  10  50
MULE CREEK              54  34  58  33  57 /  20  30  30  20  50
FAYWOOD                 56  42  59  42  60 /  20  10  10   0  30
ANIMAS                  64  42  65  43  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
HACHITA                 64  41  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  42  67  43  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLOVERDALE              62  42  63  43  64 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281139
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
439 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE OUR CLOUDS INCREASE AND WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY WE
WILL DRY OUT BUT WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION HAVE GONE LIGHT (THOUGH HERE AT THE OFFICE THEY ARE STILL
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST). AS WE START TO MIX OUT TODAY WE
WILL SEE THE WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. AND WITH THE
WESTERLY WINDS WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP. IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM AS I WAS THINKING YESTERDAY AS THE COOL AIR IS STILL IN
PLACE. I WAS THINKING TODAY WE WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE NEAR NORMAL WILL WORK TODAY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUR WARMING TREND SO THAT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OUR ZONAL
FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND FLING IT UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AS THE
FIRST BIT OF ENERGY APPROACHES THE AREA WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION START OUT WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A PRETTY WARM
SYSTEM SO SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8K. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
HAD BEEN TRYING TO GIVE US SOME WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WIND DYNAMICS WILL BE MISSED TIMED AND
ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IS QUICKLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...JUST NOT AS STRONG AS WE HAD BEEN
THINKING. AFTER THE FIRST TROUGH GOES BY IT WILL USHER IN SOME
COOLER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL COOL OUR
TEMPERATURES SOME WHAT ON WEDNESDAY. THEN A THE SECOND TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE GONE IT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE TO WORK WITH AND SHOULD PASS QUIETLY BY. THEN ON
THURSDAY THE BEFORE MENTIONED FRONT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
TRY AND PUSH IN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS YEAR THE FRONT WILL
HAVE A STRUGGLE TO PUSH AGAINST THE WEST FLOW ALOFT. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL PUSH IN TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EAST OF THERE WE CAN EXPECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER
SOME...BUT STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-01/12Z
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT
FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST BUT BY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WE WILL
OCCASIONALLY SEE HIGH CEILINGS OF SCT-BKN250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE OUR COOLER EAST WINDS REPLACED TODAY BY WINDS FROM THE
WEST. THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP JUMP OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WE WILL
AGAIN SEE GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT LIKE TODAY THEY
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS. WE WILL BE COOLER...BUT DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND
IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER
VALUES BEFORE THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  48  73  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           60  42  71  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              62  42  70  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              58  43  68  44  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOUDCROFT              40  33  49  32  47 /  20   0   0  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  44  64  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             54  40  56  39  56 /  30  20  20  20  40
DEMING                  62  41  67  41  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
LORDSBURG               61  40  64  40  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  50  72  50  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               58  38  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            65  45  75  48  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              57  46  65  46  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  68  45  75  47  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            66  45  71  47  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  46  68  47  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
JORNADA RANGE           61  39  67  39  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   63  42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                61  45  67  46  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
OROGRANDE               61  46  70  47  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
MAYHILL                 49  37  57  36  56 /  20   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               48  34  56  33  55 /  20   0   0  10  30
TIMBERON                49  37  56  37  56 /  20   0   0  10  30
WINSTON                 46  40  56  38  57 /  30  20  10  10  20
HILLSBORO               56  44  61  42  61 /  20  10  10   0  30
SPACEPORT               59  39  67  40  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  38  55  36  54 /  30  30  20  20  50
HURLEY                  56  40  59  39  59 /  20  20  10  10  30
CLIFF                   60  40  62  38  61 /  20  30  20  10  50
MULE CREEK              54  34  58  33  57 /  20  30  30  20  50
FAYWOOD                 56  42  59  42  60 /  20  10  10   0  30
ANIMAS                  64  42  65  43  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
HACHITA                 64  41  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  42  67  43  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLOVERDALE              62  42  63  43  64 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280537
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1037 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINS WITH THIS STUBBORN COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THE COLDEST AIR
RESIDES. ONE WONDERS HOW MUCH RECOVERY CAN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION IF THE MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS A SLOW START.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR FIRST PERIOD ABOUT 5 DEGREES EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE...A LITTLE LESS ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MODEL PROJECTIONS WERE
THE MOTIVATING FACTORS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 28  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           25  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              30  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              25  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              22  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   29  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             30  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  32  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               35  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      30  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            31  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              26  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  29  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          26  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   31  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                35  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               26  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 16  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               22  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                22  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 28  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               29  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               30  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  32  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   33  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              27  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 33  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  38  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 36  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              36  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT (UPDATES)







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280537
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1037 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINS WITH THIS STUBBORN COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THE COLDEST AIR
RESIDES. ONE WONDERS HOW MUCH RECOVERY CAN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION IF THE MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS A SLOW START.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR FIRST PERIOD ABOUT 5 DEGREES EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE...A LITTLE LESS ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MODEL PROJECTIONS WERE
THE MOTIVATING FACTORS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 28  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           25  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              30  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              25  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              22  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   29  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             30  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  32  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               35  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      30  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            31  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              26  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  29  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          26  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   31  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                35  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               26  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 16  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               22  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                22  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 28  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               29  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               30  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  32  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   33  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              27  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 33  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  38  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 36  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              36  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT (UPDATES)






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280537
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1037 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINS WITH THIS STUBBORN COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THE COLDEST AIR
RESIDES. ONE WONDERS HOW MUCH RECOVERY CAN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION IF THE MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS A SLOW START.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR FIRST PERIOD ABOUT 5 DEGREES EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE...A LITTLE LESS ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MODEL PROJECTIONS WERE
THE MOTIVATING FACTORS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 28  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           25  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              30  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              25  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              22  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   29  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             30  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  32  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               35  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      30  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            31  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              26  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  29  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          26  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   31  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                35  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               26  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 16  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               22  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                22  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 28  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               29  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               30  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  32  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   33  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              27  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 33  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  38  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 36  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              36  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT (UPDATES)






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280537
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1037 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINS WITH THIS STUBBORN COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THE COLDEST AIR
RESIDES. ONE WONDERS HOW MUCH RECOVERY CAN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION IF THE MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS A SLOW START.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR FIRST PERIOD ABOUT 5 DEGREES EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE...A LITTLE LESS ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MODEL PROJECTIONS WERE
THE MOTIVATING FACTORS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 28  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           25  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              30  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              25  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              22  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   29  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             30  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  32  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               35  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      30  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            31  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              26  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  29  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          26  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   31  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                35  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               26  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 16  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               22  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                22  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 28  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               29  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               30  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  32  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   33  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              27  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 33  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  38  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 36  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              36  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT (UPDATES)







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280126
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
626 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR FIRST PERIOD ABOUT 5 DEGREES EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE...A LITTLE LESS ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MODEL PROJECTIONS WERE
THE MOTIVATING FACTORS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 34  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           26  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              32  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              34  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              25  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   35  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  32  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               35  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      34  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            33  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  35  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            32  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          34  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           27  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   33  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                36  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               26  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                25  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 33  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               35  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               30  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  32  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   33  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              27  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 35  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  39  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 40  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              36  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT (UPDATE)







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280126
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
626 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR FIRST PERIOD ABOUT 5 DEGREES EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE...A LITTLE LESS ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MODEL PROJECTIONS WERE
THE MOTIVATING FACTORS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 34  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           26  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              32  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              34  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              25  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   35  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  32  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               35  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      34  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            33  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  35  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            32  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          34  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           27  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   33  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                36  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               26  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                25  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 33  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               35  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               30  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  32  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   33  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              27  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 35  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  39  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 40  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              36  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT (UPDATE)








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280126
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
626 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR FIRST PERIOD ABOUT 5 DEGREES EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE...A LITTLE LESS ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MODEL PROJECTIONS WERE
THE MOTIVATING FACTORS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 34  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           26  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              32  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              34  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              25  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   35  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  32  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               35  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      34  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            33  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  35  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            32  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          34  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           27  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   33  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                36  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               26  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                25  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 33  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               35  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               30  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  32  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   33  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              27  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 35  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  39  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 40  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              36  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT (UPDATE)







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
.7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           28  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              35  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              27  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  36  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               37  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      42  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               28  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            35  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            36  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           29  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   35  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                42  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               35  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 26  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               28  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                27  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 35  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               37  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               32  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  34  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   35  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              29  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 37  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  43  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 42  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/22 TRIPOLI





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
.7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           28  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              35  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              27  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  36  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               37  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      42  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               28  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            35  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            36  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           29  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   35  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                42  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               35  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 26  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               28  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                27  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 35  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               37  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               32  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  34  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   35  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              29  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 37  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  43  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 42  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/22 TRIPOLI






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271134
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
434 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WE WILL SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT WARM WESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IT WILL BE
DRIER AND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OFF AND ON FOR THE LAST WEEK WE`VE HAD A COLD
FRONT STRADDLED ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TIME AROUND
THE COLD AIR FROM THE EAST HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE BETTER PUSH SO MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT THE WARM
WEST WINDS WON`T PUT UP LONG WITH THAT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE OUR WINDS FLIP BACK AROUND TO THE WEST SO THAT
WHAT WAS BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
LATE SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES PUSH INTO THE WEST
LATE ON SUNDAY AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY THIS WILL BE A PRETTY WARM SYSTEM SO WE WON`T EXPECT
MUCH SNOW BELOW 8K FEET. THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OFF SENDING MOST OF ITS ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A HANG BACK TROUGH WHICH WON`T HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WHEN IT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO SWING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION SO WHAT WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE MAIN
TROUGH SLIDES BY ON WEDNESDAY GUESS WHAT...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE AREA...SO WE WILL AGAIN SEE IT
STRADDLING THE REGION GIVING THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL NOT
BE AS AFFECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KTCS TO KALM. FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS BUT CEILINGS ARE NOT AS LIKELY. BY THE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE VFR FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY...THOUGH OUT WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WE COULD SEE THE
WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS BUT WE SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR WINDS MOST DAYS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE MAY HAVE SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. FOR TODAY A COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS THE
AREA SO WE CAN EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST. BUT FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE EVERYONE`S
WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE WEST WHICH WILL WARM THINGS BACK
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA. IT WILL HELP SPREAD A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND...AS I MENTIONED...IT WILL GIVE US SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WE WILL STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL MIN RH`S LEVEL WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF HUDSPETH COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE BY THE END OF
THE COMING WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  39  70  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  28  64  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              55  35  66  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  36  62  43  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  27  44  33  48 /  10  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  37  58  44  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             51  35  58  40  55 /   0  10  20  20  20
DEMING                  59  36  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               59  37  65  40  63 /   0   0   0  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  42  69  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               38  28  62  38  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  35  69  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              44  34  61  46  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  37  72  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            56  36  70  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  36  66  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           53  29  65  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   56  35  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                61  42  65  45  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  35  65  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  26  53  37  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               41  28  52  34  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  27  53  37  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 46  35  50  40  55 /   0  10  20  20  10
HILLSBORO               50  37  60  44  60 /   0   0  20  10  10
SPACEPORT               53  32  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            49  34  55  38  54 /   0  10  30  30  30
HURLEY                  52  34  60  40  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
CLIFF                   57  35  64  40  61 /   0  10  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              55  29  58  34  57 /   0  10  30  40  40
FAYWOOD                 50  37  60  42  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  63  43  68  42  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 62  42  68  41  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  45  70  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              60  44  66  42  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271134
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
434 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WE WILL SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT WARM WESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IT WILL BE
DRIER AND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OFF AND ON FOR THE LAST WEEK WE`VE HAD A COLD
FRONT STRADDLED ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TIME AROUND
THE COLD AIR FROM THE EAST HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE BETTER PUSH SO MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT THE WARM
WEST WINDS WON`T PUT UP LONG WITH THAT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE OUR WINDS FLIP BACK AROUND TO THE WEST SO THAT
WHAT WAS BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
LATE SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES PUSH INTO THE WEST
LATE ON SUNDAY AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY THIS WILL BE A PRETTY WARM SYSTEM SO WE WON`T EXPECT
MUCH SNOW BELOW 8K FEET. THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OFF SENDING MOST OF ITS ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A HANG BACK TROUGH WHICH WON`T HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WHEN IT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO SWING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION SO WHAT WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE MAIN
TROUGH SLIDES BY ON WEDNESDAY GUESS WHAT...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE AREA...SO WE WILL AGAIN SEE IT
STRADDLING THE REGION GIVING THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL NOT
BE AS AFFECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KTCS TO KALM. FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS BUT CEILINGS ARE NOT AS LIKELY. BY THE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE VFR FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY...THOUGH OUT WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WE COULD SEE THE
WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS BUT WE SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR WINDS MOST DAYS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE MAY HAVE SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. FOR TODAY A COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS THE
AREA SO WE CAN EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST. BUT FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE EVERYONE`S
WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE WEST WHICH WILL WARM THINGS BACK
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA. IT WILL HELP SPREAD A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND...AS I MENTIONED...IT WILL GIVE US SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WE WILL STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL MIN RH`S LEVEL WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF HUDSPETH COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE BY THE END OF
THE COMING WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  39  70  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  28  64  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              55  35  66  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  36  62  43  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  27  44  33  48 /  10  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  37  58  44  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             51  35  58  40  55 /   0  10  20  20  20
DEMING                  59  36  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               59  37  65  40  63 /   0   0   0  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  42  69  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               38  28  62  38  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  35  69  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              44  34  61  46  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  37  72  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            56  36  70  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  36  66  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           53  29  65  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   56  35  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                61  42  65  45  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  35  65  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  26  53  37  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               41  28  52  34  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  27  53  37  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 46  35  50  40  55 /   0  10  20  20  10
HILLSBORO               50  37  60  44  60 /   0   0  20  10  10
SPACEPORT               53  32  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            49  34  55  38  54 /   0  10  30  30  30
HURLEY                  52  34  60  40  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
CLIFF                   57  35  64  40  61 /   0  10  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              55  29  58  34  57 /   0  10  30  40  40
FAYWOOD                 50  37  60  42  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  63  43  68  42  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 62  42  68  41  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  45  70  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              60  44  66  42  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE







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