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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290844
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
244 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN AND SAG SOUTH ALLOWING THE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN AND
VERY NEAR OR AT DAILY RECORD LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A BIT OF MOISTURE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FOR THAT PERIOD. THAT
SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY AND DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND TO BRING BACK RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
FLATTENING WITH A BACKING SOUTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OPENING THE
AREA TO UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE W TOWARD THE E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE QUITE WARM WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT RECORDS. WINDS LOOK TO
SLACKEN TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS RELAX.

MONDAY`S ANTICIPATED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN
AND MODELS ARE DELAYING IT`S INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR CWFA. MOST OF
THE DAY APPEARS DRY WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS DO HAVE SOME DEW POINT CREEP...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY. THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DOES ALLOW IT
TO INGEST A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND THUS PW`S ARE AS HIGH AS 3/4"
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BEGIN PCPN CHANCES AFTER
18Z WEST AND MTN ZONES. BY 00Z THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OVER MOST AREAS. LI`S AND CAPES ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE AND COULD
BE CHARACTERIZED AS JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF NEUTRAL. THUS
STORMS LOOK WEAK AND QUITE ISOLATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. POPS WILL STAY IN THE ISOLATED RANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THE DURATION OF THUS SYSTEM`S PASSAGE. WILL ALLOW THE
POPS TO RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN WITH THE SLOWER TRACK AND THEN
PURGE THE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THUR THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A DEEP ZONAL FLOW WITH QUITE
DRY AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM FOR BOTH DAYS
WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE M-U 80S. DEEP MIXING...INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT...AND DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALL COMPLIMENT EACH
OTHER TO BRING WINDS UP INTO THE GUSTY AND NEAR WINDY RANGES BOTH
DAYS. STILL NOT A CLASSIC SPRING WIND EVENT...BUT SOME OF THE
STRONGEST PERSISTENT WINDS OF THE SEASON FOR THESE DAYS.

FRIDAY THE WINDS LOOK TO SHUT DOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA. THIS MODIFIED AIRMASS
WILL TURN WINDS EAST AND BRING MINOR COOLING TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL PART WAYS. THE GFS IS QUITE WET
WITH A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN OVER THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS
QUITE DRY WITH A BROADER AND SHALLOWER WAVE MOVING IN AND A WEAKER
FRONT WASHING OUT. THE GFS LOOKS PRETTY RADICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE DRY OPTION FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z...
SAGGING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL
RESULT IN BACKING FLOW ALOFT TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING
HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN ACROSS THE REGION. SKC-FEW250 EARLY TODAY
WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM W TO E AND BECOMING SCT-BKN250 AFT 21Z.
SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TODAY...AND MORE VARIABLE...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE DAILY RECORD. SKIES WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY. MONDAY A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY. DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A CONCERN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE
REGION. THIS CREATES BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOW RH AND THE BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR WED AND THU. AFTERNOONS
LOOK BREEZY BUT STILL NO MAJOR WIND/DUST EVENTS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 5% TO
15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  58  84  58  80 /   0   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           87  55  79  53  75 /   0   0   0  20  30
LAS CRUCES              85  58  82  51  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              83  53  81  49  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              64  43  59  41  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  54  79  51  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             76  51  73  47  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEMING                  85  53  84  50  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
LORDSBURG               84  50  82  48  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  61  84  58  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
DELL CITY               89  52  80  51  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  59  82  55  79 /   0   0   0  20  30
LOMA LINDA              81  55  78  53  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
FABENS                  88  59  83  56  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
SANTA TERESA            85  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  54  82  55  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           83  46  82  47  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
HATCH                   84  52  82  50  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                84  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               83  55  82  53  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
MAYHILL                 73  45  68  46  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
MESCALERO               72  43  68  42  67 /   0   0  10  20  10
TIMBERON                72  45  69  44  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
WINSTON                 76  47  71  43  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
HILLSBORO               81  53  77  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               83  49  81  47  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  45  71  42  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
HURLEY                  79  50  76  47  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  46  78 /   0   0  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  41  78  39  77 /   0   0  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 79  52  76  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANIMAS                  84  54  81  52  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
HACHITA                 85  50  83  51  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  50  81  49  78 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              81  51  78  47  75 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290844
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
244 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN AND SAG SOUTH ALLOWING THE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN AND
VERY NEAR OR AT DAILY RECORD LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A BIT OF MOISTURE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FOR THAT PERIOD. THAT
SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY AND DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND TO BRING BACK RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
FLATTENING WITH A BACKING SOUTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OPENING THE
AREA TO UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE W TOWARD THE E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE QUITE WARM WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT RECORDS. WINDS LOOK TO
SLACKEN TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS RELAX.

MONDAY`S ANTICIPATED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN
AND MODELS ARE DELAYING IT`S INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR CWFA. MOST OF
THE DAY APPEARS DRY WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS DO HAVE SOME DEW POINT CREEP...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY. THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DOES ALLOW IT
TO INGEST A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND THUS PW`S ARE AS HIGH AS 3/4"
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BEGIN PCPN CHANCES AFTER
18Z WEST AND MTN ZONES. BY 00Z THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OVER MOST AREAS. LI`S AND CAPES ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE AND COULD
BE CHARACTERIZED AS JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF NEUTRAL. THUS
STORMS LOOK WEAK AND QUITE ISOLATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. POPS WILL STAY IN THE ISOLATED RANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THE DURATION OF THUS SYSTEM`S PASSAGE. WILL ALLOW THE
POPS TO RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN WITH THE SLOWER TRACK AND THEN
PURGE THE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THUR THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A DEEP ZONAL FLOW WITH QUITE
DRY AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM FOR BOTH DAYS
WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE M-U 80S. DEEP MIXING...INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT...AND DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALL COMPLIMENT EACH
OTHER TO BRING WINDS UP INTO THE GUSTY AND NEAR WINDY RANGES BOTH
DAYS. STILL NOT A CLASSIC SPRING WIND EVENT...BUT SOME OF THE
STRONGEST PERSISTENT WINDS OF THE SEASON FOR THESE DAYS.

FRIDAY THE WINDS LOOK TO SHUT DOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA. THIS MODIFIED AIRMASS
WILL TURN WINDS EAST AND BRING MINOR COOLING TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL PART WAYS. THE GFS IS QUITE WET
WITH A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN OVER THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS
QUITE DRY WITH A BROADER AND SHALLOWER WAVE MOVING IN AND A WEAKER
FRONT WASHING OUT. THE GFS LOOKS PRETTY RADICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE DRY OPTION FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z...
SAGGING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL
RESULT IN BACKING FLOW ALOFT TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING
HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN ACROSS THE REGION. SKC-FEW250 EARLY TODAY
WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM W TO E AND BECOMING SCT-BKN250 AFT 21Z.
SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TODAY...AND MORE VARIABLE...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE DAILY RECORD. SKIES WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY. MONDAY A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY. DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A CONCERN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE
REGION. THIS CREATES BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOW RH AND THE BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR WED AND THU. AFTERNOONS
LOOK BREEZY BUT STILL NO MAJOR WIND/DUST EVENTS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 5% TO
15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  58  84  58  80 /   0   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           87  55  79  53  75 /   0   0   0  20  30
LAS CRUCES              85  58  82  51  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              83  53  81  49  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              64  43  59  41  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  54  79  51  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             76  51  73  47  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEMING                  85  53  84  50  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
LORDSBURG               84  50  82  48  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  61  84  58  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
DELL CITY               89  52  80  51  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  59  82  55  79 /   0   0   0  20  30
LOMA LINDA              81  55  78  53  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
FABENS                  88  59  83  56  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
SANTA TERESA            85  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  54  82  55  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           83  46  82  47  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
HATCH                   84  52  82  50  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                84  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               83  55  82  53  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
MAYHILL                 73  45  68  46  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
MESCALERO               72  43  68  42  67 /   0   0  10  20  10
TIMBERON                72  45  69  44  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
WINSTON                 76  47  71  43  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
HILLSBORO               81  53  77  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               83  49  81  47  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  45  71  42  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
HURLEY                  79  50  76  47  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  46  78 /   0   0  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  41  78  39  77 /   0   0  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 79  52  76  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANIMAS                  84  54  81  52  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
HACHITA                 85  50  83  51  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  50  81  49  78 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              81  51  78  47  75 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM AND
BREEZY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 3PM
WE WERE JUST 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM OUR RECORD HIGH OF 88 AT EL PASO.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE.

THE WARM WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARE TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP TEMPS ALOFT...WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. TOMORROWS RECORD IS
ALSO 88...BUT WE WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES SHORT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT UP TO AROUND AN LRU-ELP LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS SNEAKING INTO THE MESILLA VALLEY IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO THE EP/HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE BY THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH RUN. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...IT APPEARS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND WE WILL SEE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL...
LINGERING 40S DEWPOINTS EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE AND INCREASING PVA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS SOME WEAK/ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SCANT QPF... ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGEST SOME GUSTY "VIRGA-BOMBS" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS
GETTING ABOVE 40 MPH.

ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WED-FRI. TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER...BUT NO
MAJOR BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON YET. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH
SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZ WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVERHEAD
AND FLATTEN IN INTENSITY SUNDAY. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FM THE WNW 5-10KTS EXCEPT 10G20 KTS 18-24Z. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CI CLOUDS FM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FEW-SCT250 BECOMING SCT-
BKN BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-
LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT AT TIMES 17Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS BY
SUNDAY. MONDAY A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW RH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT THAT TIME. AFTERNOONS LOOK
BREEZY BUT STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN
THE 5% TO 15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  87  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           50  84  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              48  85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              46  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  83  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             47  76  51  73  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  43  85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               44  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  87  61  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               47  87  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            52  89  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              55  80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  54  88  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            51  86  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  84  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           42  84  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   47  85  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                47  84  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               51  84  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 48  73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               44  72  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                46  72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 43  76  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               50  81  53  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               46  84  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            41  75  45  71  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  46  79  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   42  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  80  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  52  76  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  46  84  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  84  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  81  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM AND
BREEZY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 3PM
WE WERE JUST 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM OUR RECORD HIGH OF 88 AT EL PASO.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE.

THE WARM WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARE TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP TEMPS ALOFT...WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. TOMORROWS RECORD IS
ALSO 88...BUT WE WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES SHORT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT UP TO AROUND AN LRU-ELP LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS SNEAKING INTO THE MESILLA VALLEY IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO THE EP/HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE BY THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH RUN. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...IT APPEARS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND WE WILL SEE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL...
LINGERING 40S DEWPOINTS EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE AND INCREASING PVA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS SOME WEAK/ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SCANT QPF... ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGEST SOME GUSTY "VIRGA-BOMBS" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS
GETTING ABOVE 40 MPH.

ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WED-FRI. TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER...BUT NO
MAJOR BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON YET. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH
SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZ WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVERHEAD
AND FLATTEN IN INTENSITY SUNDAY. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FM THE WNW 5-10KTS EXCEPT 10G20 KTS 18-24Z. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CI CLOUDS FM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FEW-SCT250 BECOMING SCT-
BKN BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-
LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT AT TIMES 17Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS BY
SUNDAY. MONDAY A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW RH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT THAT TIME. AFTERNOONS LOOK
BREEZY BUT STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN
THE 5% TO 15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  87  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           50  84  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              48  85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              46  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  83  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             47  76  51  73  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  43  85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               44  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  87  61  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               47  87  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            52  89  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              55  80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  54  88  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            51  86  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  84  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           42  84  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   47  85  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                47  84  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               51  84  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 48  73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               44  72  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                46  72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 43  76  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               50  81  53  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               46  84  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            41  75  45  71  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  46  79  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   42  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  80  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  52  76  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  46  84  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  84  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  81  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM AND
BREEZY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 3PM
WE WERE JUST 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM OUR RECORD HIGH OF 88 AT EL PASO.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE.

THE WARM WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARE TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP TEMPS ALOFT...WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. TOMORROWS RECORD IS
ALSO 88...BUT WE WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES SHORT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT UP TO AROUND AN LRU-ELP LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS SNEAKING INTO THE MESILLA VALLEY IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO THE EP/HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE BY THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH RUN. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...IT APPEARS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND WE WILL SEE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL...
LINGERING 40S DEWPOINTS EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE AND INCREASING PVA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS SOME WEAK/ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SCANT QPF... ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGEST SOME GUSTY "VIRGA-BOMBS" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS
GETTING ABOVE 40 MPH.

ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WED-FRI. TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER...BUT NO
MAJOR BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON YET. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH
SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZ WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVERHEAD
AND FLATTEN IN INTENSITY SUNDAY. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FM THE WNW 5-10KTS EXCEPT 10G20 KTS 18-24Z. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CI CLOUDS FM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FEW-SCT250 BECOMING SCT-
BKN BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-
LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT AT TIMES 17Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS BY
SUNDAY. MONDAY A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW RH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT THAT TIME. AFTERNOONS LOOK
BREEZY BUT STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN
THE 5% TO 15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  87  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           50  84  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              48  85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              46  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  83  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             47  76  51  73  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  43  85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               44  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  87  61  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               47  87  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            52  89  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              55  80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  54  88  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            51  86  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  84  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           42  84  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   47  85  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                47  84  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               51  84  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 48  73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               44  72  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                46  72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 43  76  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               50  81  53  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               46  84  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            41  75  45  71  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  46  79  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   42  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  80  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  52  76  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  46  84  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  84  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  81  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM AND
BREEZY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 3PM
WE WERE JUST 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM OUR RECORD HIGH OF 88 AT EL PASO.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE.

THE WARM WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARE TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP TEMPS ALOFT...WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. TOMORROWS RECORD IS
ALSO 88...BUT WE WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES SHORT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT UP TO AROUND AN LRU-ELP LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS SNEAKING INTO THE MESILLA VALLEY IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO THE EP/HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE BY THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH RUN. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...IT APPEARS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND WE WILL SEE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL...
LINGERING 40S DEWPOINTS EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE AND INCREASING PVA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS SOME WEAK/ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SCANT QPF... ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGEST SOME GUSTY "VIRGA-BOMBS" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS
GETTING ABOVE 40 MPH.

ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WED-FRI. TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER...BUT NO
MAJOR BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON YET. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH
SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZ WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVERHEAD
AND FLATTEN IN INTENSITY SUNDAY. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FM THE WNW 5-10KTS EXCEPT 10G20 KTS 18-24Z. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CI CLOUDS FM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FEW-SCT250 BECOMING SCT-
BKN BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-
LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT AT TIMES 17Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS BY
SUNDAY. MONDAY A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW RH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT THAT TIME. AFTERNOONS LOOK
BREEZY BUT STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN
THE 5% TO 15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  87  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           50  84  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              48  85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              46  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  83  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             47  76  51  73  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  43  85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               44  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  87  61  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               47  87  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            52  89  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              55  80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  54  88  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            51  86  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  84  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           42  84  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   47  85  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                47  84  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               51  84  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 48  73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               44  72  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                46  72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 43  76  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               50  81  53  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               46  84  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            41  75  45  71  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  46  79  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   42  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  80  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  52  76  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  46  84  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  84  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  81  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280845
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL NEAR DAILY RECORDS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
SUNDAY DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. MONDAY A FAST MOVING
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A
BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BACK BACK INTO THE
MID 80S AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN MONDAY. AFTERNOONS LOOK BREEZY BUT
STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WE SIT UNDER A DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. NO MOISTURE IN
SIGHT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION.
LESS THAN .20" PW AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WITH AFTERNOON RH
BELOW 10 PERCENT. THIS IS WHAT SPRING SHOULD BE LIKE IN THE
BORDERLAND. ALL THAT IS MISSING IS THE STRONG WIND...AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THAT AT BAY TOO. HOWEVER DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SURFACE THERMALS WILL MAKE FOR SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOUT 7-8 DEGREES TODAY AND TOP OUT
QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND RIGHT NEAR RECORD LEVELS. SUNDAY NOT
A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADDITION OF HIGH CLOUDS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SAGS SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGHS. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SOME HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR RECORD LEVELS THANKS TO
CONTINUING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY AIR. WINDS LOOK TO SLACKEN.

MONDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK EAST TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE BAJA AND THEN NORTHERN MEXICO. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BACK TO SW TRAJECTORIES AND IMPORT MOISTURE OVERHEAD.
AT THE SURFACE THE DEWPOINTS COME UP WITH MODERATE MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF MEXICO AND FROM AN EAST PUSH FROM THE PLAINS.
PROG PW`S INCREASE TO AROUND .60". CONVECTIVE PROGS INDICATE MINOR
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE/TROUGH PASSAGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE
HIGH BASES WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...SKINNY AND SHALLOW CAPE...AND
LITTLE SHEAR. ALL THIS INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED WEAK AND SHORT-
LIVED STORMS. DRY LIGHTNING COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FIRE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY WILL DROP 5-8 DEGREES.

THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY TUESDAY AND WE RETURN TO A CLASSIC ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOONS SHOULD HAVE
WINDS WITH A BREEZY CHARACTER DUE TO DEEP MIXDOWN OF MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...DESPITE ONLY MINOR LEE TROUGHING. STILL NO
DEVELOPING STRONG WIND/BLOWING DUST EVENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MORNING WINDS AND MINOR
AFTERNOON GUSTING. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE WESTERLIES. WE MAY SEE A
FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE IN FAR SW NEW MEXICO DURING PEAK
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. SKIES CLR.
VSBY UNLIMITED. WINDS 250-280 5-8 G12-17KTS AFT 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AND
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS SPIKING TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN
THE LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FAR SW NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW 20-FT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
LOWLAND DESERTS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH A 5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN. LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO STAY DRY AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH-BASED. THUS ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (80S IN THE DESERTS) BY MID-
WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM DRY AND
BREEZY. BREEZY AFTERNOONS...BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ON ARE
ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  53  88  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           82  48  84  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              85  45  85  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              83  46  84  52  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  43  64  42  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  47  83  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             75  44  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  85  43  85  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               83  43  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  52  87  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               86  45  88  53  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            87  49  89  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  53  80  55  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  87  50  88  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            84  47  86  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  50  84  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  41  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   85  45  85  52  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                83  46  84  54  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               82  49  84  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 72  47  74  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               71  43  72  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                70  45  72  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 76  42  76  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               80  47  81  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               83  43  84  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  41  75  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  78  45  79  49  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   82  40  82  47  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              80  36  81  41  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 79  46  79  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  84  45  84  53  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 84  43  85  51  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  43  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              81  46  81  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280845
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL NEAR DAILY RECORDS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
SUNDAY DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. MONDAY A FAST MOVING
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A
BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BACK BACK INTO THE
MID 80S AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN MONDAY. AFTERNOONS LOOK BREEZY BUT
STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WE SIT UNDER A DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. NO MOISTURE IN
SIGHT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION.
LESS THAN .20" PW AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WITH AFTERNOON RH
BELOW 10 PERCENT. THIS IS WHAT SPRING SHOULD BE LIKE IN THE
BORDERLAND. ALL THAT IS MISSING IS THE STRONG WIND...AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THAT AT BAY TOO. HOWEVER DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SURFACE THERMALS WILL MAKE FOR SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOUT 7-8 DEGREES TODAY AND TOP OUT
QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND RIGHT NEAR RECORD LEVELS. SUNDAY NOT
A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADDITION OF HIGH CLOUDS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SAGS SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGHS. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SOME HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR RECORD LEVELS THANKS TO
CONTINUING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY AIR. WINDS LOOK TO SLACKEN.

MONDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK EAST TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE BAJA AND THEN NORTHERN MEXICO. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BACK TO SW TRAJECTORIES AND IMPORT MOISTURE OVERHEAD.
AT THE SURFACE THE DEWPOINTS COME UP WITH MODERATE MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF MEXICO AND FROM AN EAST PUSH FROM THE PLAINS.
PROG PW`S INCREASE TO AROUND .60". CONVECTIVE PROGS INDICATE MINOR
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE/TROUGH PASSAGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE
HIGH BASES WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...SKINNY AND SHALLOW CAPE...AND
LITTLE SHEAR. ALL THIS INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED WEAK AND SHORT-
LIVED STORMS. DRY LIGHTNING COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FIRE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY WILL DROP 5-8 DEGREES.

THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY TUESDAY AND WE RETURN TO A CLASSIC ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOONS SHOULD HAVE
WINDS WITH A BREEZY CHARACTER DUE TO DEEP MIXDOWN OF MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...DESPITE ONLY MINOR LEE TROUGHING. STILL NO
DEVELOPING STRONG WIND/BLOWING DUST EVENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MORNING WINDS AND MINOR
AFTERNOON GUSTING. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE WESTERLIES. WE MAY SEE A
FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE IN FAR SW NEW MEXICO DURING PEAK
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. SKIES CLR.
VSBY UNLIMITED. WINDS 250-280 5-8 G12-17KTS AFT 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AND
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS SPIKING TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN
THE LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FAR SW NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW 20-FT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
LOWLAND DESERTS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH A 5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN. LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO STAY DRY AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH-BASED. THUS ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (80S IN THE DESERTS) BY MID-
WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM DRY AND
BREEZY. BREEZY AFTERNOONS...BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ON ARE
ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  53  88  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           82  48  84  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              85  45  85  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              83  46  84  52  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  43  64  42  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  47  83  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             75  44  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  85  43  85  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               83  43  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  52  87  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               86  45  88  53  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            87  49  89  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  53  80  55  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  87  50  88  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            84  47  86  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  50  84  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  41  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   85  45  85  52  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                83  46  84  54  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               82  49  84  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 72  47  74  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               71  43  72  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                70  45  72  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 76  42  76  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               80  47  81  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               83  43  84  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  41  75  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  78  45  79  49  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   82  40  82  47  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              80  36  81  41  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 79  46  79  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  84  45  84  53  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 84  43  85  51  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  43  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              81  46  81  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280845
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL NEAR DAILY RECORDS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
SUNDAY DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. MONDAY A FAST MOVING
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A
BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BACK BACK INTO THE
MID 80S AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN MONDAY. AFTERNOONS LOOK BREEZY BUT
STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WE SIT UNDER A DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. NO MOISTURE IN
SIGHT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION.
LESS THAN .20" PW AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WITH AFTERNOON RH
BELOW 10 PERCENT. THIS IS WHAT SPRING SHOULD BE LIKE IN THE
BORDERLAND. ALL THAT IS MISSING IS THE STRONG WIND...AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THAT AT BAY TOO. HOWEVER DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SURFACE THERMALS WILL MAKE FOR SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOUT 7-8 DEGREES TODAY AND TOP OUT
QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND RIGHT NEAR RECORD LEVELS. SUNDAY NOT
A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADDITION OF HIGH CLOUDS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SAGS SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGHS. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SOME HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR RECORD LEVELS THANKS TO
CONTINUING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY AIR. WINDS LOOK TO SLACKEN.

MONDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK EAST TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE BAJA AND THEN NORTHERN MEXICO. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BACK TO SW TRAJECTORIES AND IMPORT MOISTURE OVERHEAD.
AT THE SURFACE THE DEWPOINTS COME UP WITH MODERATE MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF MEXICO AND FROM AN EAST PUSH FROM THE PLAINS.
PROG PW`S INCREASE TO AROUND .60". CONVECTIVE PROGS INDICATE MINOR
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE/TROUGH PASSAGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE
HIGH BASES WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...SKINNY AND SHALLOW CAPE...AND
LITTLE SHEAR. ALL THIS INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED WEAK AND SHORT-
LIVED STORMS. DRY LIGHTNING COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FIRE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY WILL DROP 5-8 DEGREES.

THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY TUESDAY AND WE RETURN TO A CLASSIC ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOONS SHOULD HAVE
WINDS WITH A BREEZY CHARACTER DUE TO DEEP MIXDOWN OF MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...DESPITE ONLY MINOR LEE TROUGHING. STILL NO
DEVELOPING STRONG WIND/BLOWING DUST EVENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MORNING WINDS AND MINOR
AFTERNOON GUSTING. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE WESTERLIES. WE MAY SEE A
FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE IN FAR SW NEW MEXICO DURING PEAK
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. SKIES CLR.
VSBY UNLIMITED. WINDS 250-280 5-8 G12-17KTS AFT 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AND
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS SPIKING TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN
THE LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FAR SW NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW 20-FT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
LOWLAND DESERTS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH A 5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN. LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO STAY DRY AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH-BASED. THUS ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (80S IN THE DESERTS) BY MID-
WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM DRY AND
BREEZY. BREEZY AFTERNOONS...BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ON ARE
ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  53  88  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           82  48  84  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              85  45  85  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              83  46  84  52  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  43  64  42  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  47  83  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             75  44  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  85  43  85  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               83  43  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  52  87  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               86  45  88  53  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            87  49  89  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  53  80  55  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  87  50  88  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            84  47  86  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  50  84  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  41  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   85  45  85  52  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                83  46  84  54  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               82  49  84  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 72  47  74  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               71  43  72  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                70  45  72  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 76  42  76  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               80  47  81  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               83  43  84  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  41  75  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  78  45  79  49  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   82  40  82  47  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              80  36  81  41  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 79  46  79  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  84  45  84  53  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 84  43  85  51  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  43  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              81  46  81  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272053
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY A SHARP DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE
WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BORDERLAND`S
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE AREA WILL SEE VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING
DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY
WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT MONDAY THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WILL BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS QUICK TO
LEAVE THE AREA AND IS NOT VERY STRONG IT DOES TAP SOME BAJA MOISTURE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY INDICES SHOW THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LOW
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS ARE STRONGER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REINSTATE
THEMSELVES OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS EAST OF THE
CWA AND THE WESTERLIES TAKE OVER WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON
WINDS REACHING THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORIES EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WHILE THIS
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A WIDE SPREAD BLOWING DUST EVENT THERE IS THE
POSSIBLY FOR LOCAL BLOWING DUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLIES
SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO DURING PEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON.  A FEW CIRRUS MAY
CASCADE OVER THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS SPIKING TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING
DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW 20-FT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LOWLAND
DESERTS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (80S IN THE DESERTS) BY MID-WEEK.
THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS...BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER
WIND EVENTS ON ARE ON THE HORIZON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  88  56  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  83  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  86  47  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              45  84  48  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  64  43  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  83  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  76  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  43  86  45  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  84  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  87  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               45  87  48  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            48  88  52  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  80  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  48  88  53  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  85  49  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  83  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           41  86  43  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  86  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                46  84  48  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  83  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  73  47  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               40  72  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                41  71  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  77  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  81  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  84  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            40  76  41  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  43  79  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  83  42  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  81  36  81  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 45  80  46  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  85  47  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  45  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          42  86  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  82  46  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272053
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY A SHARP DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE
WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BORDERLAND`S
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE AREA WILL SEE VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING
DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY
WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT MONDAY THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WILL BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS QUICK TO
LEAVE THE AREA AND IS NOT VERY STRONG IT DOES TAP SOME BAJA MOISTURE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY INDICES SHOW THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LOW
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS ARE STRONGER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REINSTATE
THEMSELVES OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS EAST OF THE
CWA AND THE WESTERLIES TAKE OVER WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON
WINDS REACHING THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORIES EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WHILE THIS
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A WIDE SPREAD BLOWING DUST EVENT THERE IS THE
POSSIBLY FOR LOCAL BLOWING DUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLIES
SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO DURING PEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON.  A FEW CIRRUS MAY
CASCADE OVER THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS SPIKING TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING
DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW 20-FT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LOWLAND
DESERTS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (80S IN THE DESERTS) BY MID-WEEK.
THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS...BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER
WIND EVENTS ON ARE ON THE HORIZON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  88  56  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  83  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  86  47  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              45  84  48  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  64  43  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  83  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  76  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  43  86  45  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  84  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  87  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               45  87  48  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            48  88  52  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  80  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  48  88  53  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  85  49  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  83  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           41  86  43  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  86  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                46  84  48  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  83  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  73  47  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               40  72  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                41  71  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  77  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  81  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  84  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            40  76  41  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  43  79  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  83  42  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  81  36  81  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 45  80  46  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  85  47  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  45  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          42  86  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  82  46  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/HARDIMAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272053
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY A SHARP DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE
WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BORDERLAND`S
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE AREA WILL SEE VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING
DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY
WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT MONDAY THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WILL BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS QUICK TO
LEAVE THE AREA AND IS NOT VERY STRONG IT DOES TAP SOME BAJA MOISTURE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY INDICES SHOW THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LOW
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS ARE STRONGER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REINSTATE
THEMSELVES OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS EAST OF THE
CWA AND THE WESTERLIES TAKE OVER WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON
WINDS REACHING THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORIES EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WHILE THIS
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A WIDE SPREAD BLOWING DUST EVENT THERE IS THE
POSSIBLY FOR LOCAL BLOWING DUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLIES
SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO DURING PEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON.  A FEW CIRRUS MAY
CASCADE OVER THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS SPIKING TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING
DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW 20-FT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LOWLAND
DESERTS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (80S IN THE DESERTS) BY MID-WEEK.
THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS...BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER
WIND EVENTS ON ARE ON THE HORIZON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  88  56  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  83  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  86  47  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              45  84  48  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  64  43  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  83  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  76  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  43  86  45  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  84  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  87  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               45  87  48  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            48  88  52  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  80  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  48  88  53  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  85  49  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  83  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           41  86  43  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  86  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                46  84  48  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  83  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  73  47  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               40  72  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                41  71  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  77  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  81  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  84  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            40  76  41  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  43  79  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  83  42  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  81  36  81  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 45  80  46  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  85  47  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  45  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          42  86  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  82  46  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/HARDIMAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272053
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY A SHARP DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE
WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BORDERLAND`S
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE AREA WILL SEE VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING
DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY
WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT MONDAY THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WILL BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS QUICK TO
LEAVE THE AREA AND IS NOT VERY STRONG IT DOES TAP SOME BAJA MOISTURE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY INDICES SHOW THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LOW
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS ARE STRONGER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REINSTATE
THEMSELVES OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS EAST OF THE
CWA AND THE WESTERLIES TAKE OVER WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON
WINDS REACHING THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORIES EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WHILE THIS
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A WIDE SPREAD BLOWING DUST EVENT THERE IS THE
POSSIBLY FOR LOCAL BLOWING DUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLIES
SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO DURING PEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON.  A FEW CIRRUS MAY
CASCADE OVER THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS SPIKING TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING
DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW 20-FT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LOWLAND
DESERTS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (80S IN THE DESERTS) BY MID-WEEK.
THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS...BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER
WIND EVENTS ON ARE ON THE HORIZON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  88  56  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  83  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  86  47  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              45  84  48  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  64  43  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  83  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  76  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  43  86  45  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  84  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  87  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               45  87  48  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            48  88  52  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  80  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  48  88  53  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  85  49  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  83  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           41  86  43  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  86  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                46  84  48  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  83  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  73  47  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               40  72  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                41  71  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  77  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  81  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  84  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            40  76  41  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  43  79  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  83  42  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  81  36  81  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 45  80  46  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  85  47  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  45  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          42  86  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  82  46  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 270902
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
302 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID TO UPPER
70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOWLAND TEMPERATURE VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MANY AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTLY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG BUT IT WILL BE
BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH IT THAT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY FROM
THIS SYSTEM.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AS POCKETS OF HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD. FEW- SCT150 TIL 15Z...SKC AFTERWARDS. VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFT 18Z...DIMINISHING
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND THEN RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN
THE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MIN RH
FIELD WILL RUN FROM 17% TO 27% ACROSS ALL AREAS DRYING TO ABOUT
5% TO 10% ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  50  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  46  83  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  44  86  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              77  44  84  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  38  65  41  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   78  46  83  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             73  43  76  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  79  42  86  44  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  43  84  44  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  51  87  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               80  44  87  47  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  47  88  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  48  80  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  79  47  88  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            78  47  85  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  48  83  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  40  86  42  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   79  43  86  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                77  45  84  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               76  47  83  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  42  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               66  39  72  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                65  40  71  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 72  40  77  41  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               76  45  81  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  42  84  44  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            72  39  76  40  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  75  42  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   79  41  83  41  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              78  35  81  35  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 74  44  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  80  44  85  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 79  42  85  44  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  41  86  44  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              78  43  82  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 270902
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
302 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID TO UPPER
70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOWLAND TEMPERATURE VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MANY AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTLY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG BUT IT WILL BE
BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH IT THAT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY FROM
THIS SYSTEM.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AS POCKETS OF HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD. FEW- SCT150 TIL 15Z...SKC AFTERWARDS. VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFT 18Z...DIMINISHING
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND THEN RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN
THE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MIN RH
FIELD WILL RUN FROM 17% TO 27% ACROSS ALL AREAS DRYING TO ABOUT
5% TO 10% ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  50  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  46  83  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  44  86  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              77  44  84  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  38  65  41  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   78  46  83  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             73  43  76  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  79  42  86  44  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  43  84  44  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  51  87  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               80  44  87  47  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  47  88  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  48  80  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  79  47  88  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            78  47  85  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  48  83  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  40  86  42  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   79  43  86  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                77  45  84  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               76  47  83  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  42  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               66  39  72  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                65  40  71  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 72  40  77  41  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               76  45  81  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  42  84  44  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            72  39  76  40  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  75  42  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   79  41  83  41  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              78  35  81  35  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 74  44  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  80  44  85  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 79  42  85  44  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  41  86  44  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              78  43  82  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262105
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
305 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE BORDERLAND THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING BACK WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHARP
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. LATE
NEXT NEXT WEEK A DRY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS AND BRING
WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIND AND DUST EVENT OF THE
SPRING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA.
TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE BORDERLAND. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE BORDERLAND WILL SEE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND COULD RISE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE THE LOW COULD INITIATE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WENT WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA AND THE
WESTERLIES TAKE OVER WITH ZONAL FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY A
SHALLOW FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TIGHTENING UP
THE LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POSSIBLY CAUSING OUT FIRST MAJOR
WIND EVENT OF THE SPRING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z-28/00Z..
BACK DOOR CLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH FCST PD.
SFC WINDS TIL 03Z SE 5-10 K TS EXCEPT NE-SE 8 G 18KS WEST OF
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF I-10. SKC - FEW 150-250). AFT 03Z:
VRBL TO NW 6KTS SKC - FEW 150-250. AFT 18Z: WINDS SW 8KTS FEW150-250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AIR (ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY) PUSHED INTO THE
AREA BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S BACK DOOR FRONT. THIS AIR IS SHALLOW AND
WILL RETREAT BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH ON WEST SLOPES AND
PASSES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RETURN TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE LATE MONDAY
TUESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MIN RH
FIELD WILL RUN FROM 17% TO 27% ACROSS ALL AREAS THURSDAY DRYING
ABOUT 5% TO 10% ALL LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG
ISSUES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  77  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           38  73  47  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  76  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  76  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              32  57  40  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  76  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             37  71  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  38  77  44  85  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               38  77  45  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  76  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               38  78  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            40  78  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              41  71  49  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  39  77  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            40  76  48  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  75  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           36  76  43  84  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   38  77  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  75  46  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               40  75  48  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  67  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               33  65  41  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                34  64  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 34  70  41  76  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               39  74  46  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               37  76  44  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  70  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  73  44  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   36  78  43  83  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              31  76  37  81  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  72  45  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  39  78  46  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 37  77  44  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  78  43  85  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              38  76  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/NOVLAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262105
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
305 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE BORDERLAND THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING BACK WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHARP
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. LATE
NEXT NEXT WEEK A DRY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS AND BRING
WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIND AND DUST EVENT OF THE
SPRING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA.
TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE BORDERLAND. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE BORDERLAND WILL SEE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND COULD RISE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE THE LOW COULD INITIATE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WENT WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA AND THE
WESTERLIES TAKE OVER WITH ZONAL FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY A
SHALLOW FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TIGHTENING UP
THE LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POSSIBLY CAUSING OUT FIRST MAJOR
WIND EVENT OF THE SPRING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z-28/00Z..
BACK DOOR CLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH FCST PD.
SFC WINDS TIL 03Z SE 5-10 K TS EXCEPT NE-SE 8 G 18KS WEST OF
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF I-10. SKC - FEW 150-250). AFT 03Z:
VRBL TO NW 6KTS SKC - FEW 150-250. AFT 18Z: WINDS SW 8KTS FEW150-250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AIR (ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY) PUSHED INTO THE
AREA BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S BACK DOOR FRONT. THIS AIR IS SHALLOW AND
WILL RETREAT BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH ON WEST SLOPES AND
PASSES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RETURN TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE LATE MONDAY
TUESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MIN RH
FIELD WILL RUN FROM 17% TO 27% ACROSS ALL AREAS THURSDAY DRYING
ABOUT 5% TO 10% ALL LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG
ISSUES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  77  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           38  73  47  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  76  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  76  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              32  57  40  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  76  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             37  71  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  38  77  44  85  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               38  77  45  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  76  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               38  78  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            40  78  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              41  71  49  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  39  77  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            40  76  48  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  75  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           36  76  43  84  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   38  77  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  75  46  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               40  75  48  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  67  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               33  65  41  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                34  64  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 34  70  41  76  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               39  74  46  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               37  76  44  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  70  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  73  44  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   36  78  43  83  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              31  76  37  81  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  72  45  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  39  78  46  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 37  77  44  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  78  43  85  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              38  76  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262047
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
247 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO CHANGE LOWLAND RAIN TO SNOW BUT IT WILL HELP
GENERATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FIFTEEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY WITH SUNSHINE HELPING BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED PROVIDE THE SUBTROPICAL TAP IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS RESULTED IN OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
OPEN UP AND SHEAR EAST SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT
SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
OF THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME DEBATE AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS
TO JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WE WILL RECEIVE BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY QPF
VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY AND ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST OF HERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES BUT THE
ONLY REAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY UP-SLOPE FLOW
AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY. DESPITE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE AREA WILL BE
SLOW TO WARM UP AS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE
BORDER REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA
UNTIL LATE WEEKEND. WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
DRY AND MILDER...TEMPS MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET BACK TO NORMAL UNTIL THE
FIRST ON NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR CLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH FCST PD.
SFC WINDS TIL 03Z SE 5-10 K TS EXCEPT NE-SE 8 G 18KS WEST OF
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF I-10. SKC - FEW 150-250). AFT 03Z:
VRBL TO NW 6KTS SKC - FEW 150-250. AFT 18Z: WINDS SW 8KTS FEW150-250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AIR (ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY) PUSHED INTO THE
AREA BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S BACK DOOR FRONT. THIS AIR IS SHALLOW AND
WILL RETREAT BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH ON WEST SLOPES AND
PASSES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RETURN TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE LATE MONDAY
TUESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MIN RH
FIELD WILL RUN FROM 17% TO 27% ACROSS ALL AREAS THURSDAY DRYING
ABOUT 5% TO 10% ALL LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG
ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  77  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           38  73  47  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  76  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  76  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              32  57  40  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  76  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             37  71  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  38  77  44  85  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               38  77  45  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  76  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               38  78  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            40  78  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              41  71  49  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  39  77  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            40  76  48  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  75  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           36  76  43  84  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   38  77  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  75  46  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               40  75  48  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  67  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               33  65  41  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                34  64  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 34  70  41  76  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               39  74  46  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               37  76  44  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  70  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  73  44  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   36  78  43  83  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              31  76  37  81  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  72  45  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  39  78  46  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 37  77  44  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  78  43  85  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              38  76  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/NOVLAN







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