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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212046
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COUPLE OF MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WE
ARE IN FOR A STARK CHANGE IN WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE POISED TO OUR SOUTH AND DUE TO STREAM
INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE RESULTING WEATHER SHOULD BE A LOT CLOUDIER...A LOT COOLER...
AND A LOT WETTER. FRIDAY LOWLAND TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
80 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN
ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DO YOU SOMETIMES GET THE FEELING YOU ARE SURROUNDED? WELL...WE
ARE...BY DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST...SOUTH...AND EAST. FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TIME-BEING WE ARE DRY RELATIVE TO MONSOON NORMALS WITH
LESS THAN .90" OF PW ON THIS AM`S SOUNDING AND PM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE L40S-N50. THAT IS JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT THE TYPICAL PM STORMS OF THE MONSOON SEASON THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WE ARE SEEING ONLY FLAT TO MODERATE CU MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THAT LURKING MOISTURE IS
SNEAKING INTO THE BOOTHEEL AND S HUDSPETH CO. THUS THOSE AREAS
POSE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED STORM...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WE EXPECT THE "FLOODGATES" TO PART AND
BEGIN ALLOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
IS ALL ON AN ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A PACIFIC
LOW TO OUR WEST AND A GULF HIGH TO OUR EAST. PW`S ARE EXPECT TO
SHOOT UP TO 1.5O"-1.65". BECAUSE THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SW
WE EXPECT THE SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN ZONES TO BEGIN RECEIVING PCPN
FIRST THIS EVENING WITH THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORMS TRACKING NE
INTO THE EASTERN GILA AND WESTERN SIERRA CO AND LUNA CO AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO SOME MOISTURE COULD SNEAK INTO HUDSPETH CO EARLY
ALSO. BY FRIDAY MORNING WE EXPECT THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME TO HAVE
SPREAD EAST OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
TULAROSA BASIN AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LATER IN THE DAY
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE MOIST.

FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY`S. WE EXPECT
THICK AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE
A BIT COOLER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AS THE COOLER TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK WITH
ONLY A WEAK AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THUS RAINFALL
RATES WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AN EXTENDED DURATION
VERSUS TYPICAL AUGUST RAIN EVENTS. GIVE ALL THE PARAMETERS THE
TOTAL RAIN FOR MANY AREAS LOOKS TO FALL WITHIN THE .25 TO .75 INCH
RANGE. SOME MAY GET AN INCH OR MORE OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AS A TROUGH AND BEGIN TO SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS LATE FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND EFFECTIVELY SHOVES THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST.
THE WEST ZONES WILL QUICKLY DRY ENDING RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES SEE RAIN DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY SATURDAY THE BEST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
EAST ZONES WITH AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRAND STILL HAVING PCPN
CHANCES BUT THE AREAS TO THE WEST LIKELY BEING DRY. WE`LL SEE MORE
SUN AND TEMPS WILL WARM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BACK TO SEASONAL WEATHER. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE DRY TIME AND DRY AREAS THAN RAIN AS THE UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN UNDER A MORE W/SW FLOW PATTERN AS A BROAD STANDING
TROUGH HANGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OUR RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED AIRMASS STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS. KIND OF THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN.

WE`LL WATCH THE WED-THU PERIODS FOR A POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH OFF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THAT MOISTURE`S
INTERACTION WITH A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT. THOSE TWO FEATURES MAY
ENHANCE AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THOSE DAYS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z - 23/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPO VSBY BLO 1SM IN +TSRA SCT-BKN010-040 BKN-OVC060-100 AND
WIND VRB25G45KTS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THIS EVENING OVER THE GILA REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST WINDS ALOFT THAT BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND
TODAY ARE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE
UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA TO SPREAD ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA
REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW
HEADS NORTHEAST AND OUR WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY HUMID TOMORROW WITH MINIMUM RH 40 TO 50
PERCENT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 60 PERCENT OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS THEN DROPPING BY 15 TO 20 POINTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HAINES INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  80  68  88  70 /  40  70  40  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  75  66  86  67 /  40  80  50  30   0
LAS CRUCES              66  78  65  86  66 /  50  70  40  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  77  64  89  65 /  30  80  50  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              50  61  48  67  47 /  30  90  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  76  64  82  65 /  40  30  30  10   0
SILVER CITY             58  74  56  80  58 /  50  40  30   0   0
DEMING                  65  79  64  85  65 /  60  40  30  10   0
LORDSBURG               64  79  63  84  64 /  50  30  30   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  79  68  87  69 /  40  70  40  20   0
DELL CITY               67  80  64  88  67 /  30  80  50  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            69  78  67  91  69 /  50  80  50  30   0
LOMA LINDA              66  77  64  83  67 /  40  70  50  30  10
FABENS                  70  79  65  90  67 /  40  70  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            68  79  67  87  67 /  50  70  40  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  79  66  86  67 /  40  60  50  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  77  65  85  66 /  30  60  40  20   0
HATCH                   65  78  64  86  65 /  40  40  40  10   0
COLUMBUS                67  78  66  86  67 /  60  50  30  10   0
OROGRANDE               67  78  66  84  67 /  30  70  50  20   0
MAYHILL                 55  65  53  79  53 /  30  80  60  40  20
MESCALERO               55  68  53  78  53 /  30  80  50  40  20
TIMBERON                56  69  54  75  54 /  30  90  50  40  20
WINSTON                 52  70  50  80  53 /  40  50  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               61  75  59  83  62 /  40  50  30  10   0
SPACEPORT               65  76  64  83  65 /  30  40  40  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  73  55  79  58 /  50  40  30  10   0
HURLEY                  60  75  58  81  61 /  50  40  30   0   0
CLIFF                   59  76  54  81  52 /  40  30  30   0   0
MULE CREEK              56  76  51  78  51 /  40  40  30   0   0
FAYWOOD                 60  75  58  83  61 /  50  40  30  10   0
ANIMAS                  64  77  63  84  64 /  60  30  30   0   0
HACHITA                 64  79  63  85  64 /  60  30  30  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  75  61  84  62 /  60  40  30  10   0
CLOVERDALE              62  76  60  81  63 /  60  30  40   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/21







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212046
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COUPLE OF MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WE
ARE IN FOR A STARK CHANGE IN WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE POISED TO OUR SOUTH AND DUE TO STREAM
INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE RESULTING WEATHER SHOULD BE A LOT CLOUDIER...A LOT COOLER...
AND A LOT WETTER. FRIDAY LOWLAND TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
80 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN
ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DO YOU SOMETIMES GET THE FEELING YOU ARE SURROUNDED? WELL...WE
ARE...BY DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST...SOUTH...AND EAST. FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TIME-BEING WE ARE DRY RELATIVE TO MONSOON NORMALS WITH
LESS THAN .90" OF PW ON THIS AM`S SOUNDING AND PM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE L40S-N50. THAT IS JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT THE TYPICAL PM STORMS OF THE MONSOON SEASON THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WE ARE SEEING ONLY FLAT TO MODERATE CU MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THAT LURKING MOISTURE IS
SNEAKING INTO THE BOOTHEEL AND S HUDSPETH CO. THUS THOSE AREAS
POSE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED STORM...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WE EXPECT THE "FLOODGATES" TO PART AND
BEGIN ALLOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
IS ALL ON AN ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A PACIFIC
LOW TO OUR WEST AND A GULF HIGH TO OUR EAST. PW`S ARE EXPECT TO
SHOOT UP TO 1.5O"-1.65". BECAUSE THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SW
WE EXPECT THE SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN ZONES TO BEGIN RECEIVING PCPN
FIRST THIS EVENING WITH THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORMS TRACKING NE
INTO THE EASTERN GILA AND WESTERN SIERRA CO AND LUNA CO AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO SOME MOISTURE COULD SNEAK INTO HUDSPETH CO EARLY
ALSO. BY FRIDAY MORNING WE EXPECT THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME TO HAVE
SPREAD EAST OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
TULAROSA BASIN AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LATER IN THE DAY
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE MOIST.

FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY`S. WE EXPECT
THICK AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE
A BIT COOLER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AS THE COOLER TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK WITH
ONLY A WEAK AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THUS RAINFALL
RATES WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AN EXTENDED DURATION
VERSUS TYPICAL AUGUST RAIN EVENTS. GIVE ALL THE PARAMETERS THE
TOTAL RAIN FOR MANY AREAS LOOKS TO FALL WITHIN THE .25 TO .75 INCH
RANGE. SOME MAY GET AN INCH OR MORE OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AS A TROUGH AND BEGIN TO SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS LATE FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND EFFECTIVELY SHOVES THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST.
THE WEST ZONES WILL QUICKLY DRY ENDING RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES SEE RAIN DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY SATURDAY THE BEST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
EAST ZONES WITH AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRAND STILL HAVING PCPN
CHANCES BUT THE AREAS TO THE WEST LIKELY BEING DRY. WE`LL SEE MORE
SUN AND TEMPS WILL WARM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BACK TO SEASONAL WEATHER. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE DRY TIME AND DRY AREAS THAN RAIN AS THE UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN UNDER A MORE W/SW FLOW PATTERN AS A BROAD STANDING
TROUGH HANGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OUR RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED AIRMASS STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS. KIND OF THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN.

WE`LL WATCH THE WED-THU PERIODS FOR A POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH OFF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THAT MOISTURE`S
INTERACTION WITH A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT. THOSE TWO FEATURES MAY
ENHANCE AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THOSE DAYS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z - 23/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPO VSBY BLO 1SM IN +TSRA SCT-BKN010-040 BKN-OVC060-100 AND
WIND VRB25G45KTS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THIS EVENING OVER THE GILA REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST WINDS ALOFT THAT BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND
TODAY ARE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE
UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA TO SPREAD ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA
REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW
HEADS NORTHEAST AND OUR WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY HUMID TOMORROW WITH MINIMUM RH 40 TO 50
PERCENT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 60 PERCENT OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS THEN DROPPING BY 15 TO 20 POINTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HAINES INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  80  68  88  70 /  40  70  40  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  75  66  86  67 /  40  80  50  30   0
LAS CRUCES              66  78  65  86  66 /  50  70  40  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  77  64  89  65 /  30  80  50  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              50  61  48  67  47 /  30  90  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  76  64  82  65 /  40  30  30  10   0
SILVER CITY             58  74  56  80  58 /  50  40  30   0   0
DEMING                  65  79  64  85  65 /  60  40  30  10   0
LORDSBURG               64  79  63  84  64 /  50  30  30   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  79  68  87  69 /  40  70  40  20   0
DELL CITY               67  80  64  88  67 /  30  80  50  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            69  78  67  91  69 /  50  80  50  30   0
LOMA LINDA              66  77  64  83  67 /  40  70  50  30  10
FABENS                  70  79  65  90  67 /  40  70  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            68  79  67  87  67 /  50  70  40  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  79  66  86  67 /  40  60  50  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  77  65  85  66 /  30  60  40  20   0
HATCH                   65  78  64  86  65 /  40  40  40  10   0
COLUMBUS                67  78  66  86  67 /  60  50  30  10   0
OROGRANDE               67  78  66  84  67 /  30  70  50  20   0
MAYHILL                 55  65  53  79  53 /  30  80  60  40  20
MESCALERO               55  68  53  78  53 /  30  80  50  40  20
TIMBERON                56  69  54  75  54 /  30  90  50  40  20
WINSTON                 52  70  50  80  53 /  40  50  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               61  75  59  83  62 /  40  50  30  10   0
SPACEPORT               65  76  64  83  65 /  30  40  40  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  73  55  79  58 /  50  40  30  10   0
HURLEY                  60  75  58  81  61 /  50  40  30   0   0
CLIFF                   59  76  54  81  52 /  40  30  30   0   0
MULE CREEK              56  76  51  78  51 /  40  40  30   0   0
FAYWOOD                 60  75  58  83  61 /  50  40  30  10   0
ANIMAS                  64  77  63  84  64 /  60  30  30   0   0
HACHITA                 64  79  63  85  64 /  60  30  30  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  75  61  84  62 /  60  40  30  10   0
CLOVERDALE              62  76  60  81  63 /  60  30  40   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/21






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DRYING OUT ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND BRING UP A NEW ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE
BOUND TO BE HEAVY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OR ENDING THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MODELS HINTED AT A TEMPORARY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND THE
DAY TURNED OUT PROBABLY EVEN DRIER THAN THE MODELS DEPICTED. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS
TOOK A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME REMAINED
OVER THE CWA BUT BECAME QUITE DIFFUSE AND THINNER. PW`S OF
1.20"-1.40" ON TUESDAY DIMINISHED TO AROUND .75"-.90" THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PW`S REMAIN ALL AROUND THE
AREA. MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN WEST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES TO SW ARIZONA AND
INCREASES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. EXPECT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY OVER MOUNTAINS AS MODELS ONLY
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MOISTURE STILL ON THE SLOW INCREASE.
MAXIMUM MOISTURE OCCURS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NICELY IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT MOISTURE COULD CLOUD THE CWA IN WITH A THICK OVERCAST FOR
FRIDAY. PROGGED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT. FOR NOW WILL STILL PLAY POPS AS IF
SOME SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCUR.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO TROUGH FRIDAY OVER NEW MEXICO AND MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA MID DAY SATURDAY WITH RAPID DRYING OUT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THE EAST EARLY ON BUT TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY WELL KILL ALMOST ALL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. NEXT SHIFT
CAN TRIM BACK POPS IF NEEDED. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY OF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN STORMS
AND THE ISOLATED STORMS ALL AREAS DURING THE EVENINGS.

UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME AND DRIFTS NORTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING WEST OF THE BAJA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TURN UPPER FLOW MOVE NORTHWEST AND
PUSH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IN. THIS MAY LIMIT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
JUST THE MOUNTAINS. GFS STILL TRYING TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT IN ON
THURSDAY SO THIS COULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER
MOUNTAINS...SCT-BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 420 WITH
ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 030. STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWLANDS AFT 22Z...WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW MOVING TO SW ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
BRINGING IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE REACHED. SOME FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN SATURDAY BUT
THEN TAPER OFF WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT DRIER THAN RECENTLY BUT
STILL ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL COOL TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 35-45% FRIDAY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT
35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR 45-55% FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  72  83  68  89 /  10  40  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           87  67  77  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              90  67  80  65  87 /  10  40  40  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              89  66  79  64  90 /  20  30  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              70  51  63  48  68 /  30  40  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  66  78  64  83 /  10  30  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             82  59  76  56  80 /  30  40  40  30  20
DEMING                  91  66  81  64  86 /  10  40  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               90  65  81  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  71  82  68  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
DELL CITY               93  68  83  64  89 /  10  50  40  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            91  71  81  67  92 /  10  40  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              86  67  79  64  84 /  10  40  40  40  30
FABENS                  92  69  82  65  91 /  10  40  40  40  30
SANTA TERESA            91  69  81  67  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  68  81  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           90  67  79  65  86 /  10  40  40  40  20
HATCH                   90  66  80  64  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
COLUMBUS                90  68  80  66  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               90  68  80  66  85 /  10  40  40  40  30
MAYHILL                 75  56  67  53  80 /  30  30  50  50  40
MESCALERO               78  56  70  53  79 /  30  30  50  50  40
TIMBERON                79  57  71  54  76 /  30  40  50  50  40
WINSTON                 79  53  72  50  81 /  30  40  50  30  20
HILLSBORO               84  62  77  59  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               88  66  78  64  84 /  10  30  40  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            82  58  75  55  80 /  30  40  50  30  20
HURLEY                  84  61  77  58  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLIFF                   86  60  78  54  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              84  57  78  51  78 /  20  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 84  61  77  58  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANIMAS                  88  65  79  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
HACHITA                 90  65  81  63  85 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  63  77  61  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLOVERDALE              83  63  78  60  81 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/HEFNER










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DRYING OUT ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND BRING UP A NEW ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE
BOUND TO BE HEAVY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OR ENDING THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MODELS HINTED AT A TEMPORARY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND THE
DAY TURNED OUT PROBABLY EVEN DRIER THAN THE MODELS DEPICTED. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS
TOOK A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME REMAINED
OVER THE CWA BUT BECAME QUITE DIFFUSE AND THINNER. PW`S OF
1.20"-1.40" ON TUESDAY DIMINISHED TO AROUND .75"-.90" THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PW`S REMAIN ALL AROUND THE
AREA. MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN WEST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES TO SW ARIZONA AND
INCREASES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. EXPECT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY OVER MOUNTAINS AS MODELS ONLY
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MOISTURE STILL ON THE SLOW INCREASE.
MAXIMUM MOISTURE OCCURS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NICELY IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT MOISTURE COULD CLOUD THE CWA IN WITH A THICK OVERCAST FOR
FRIDAY. PROGGED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT. FOR NOW WILL STILL PLAY POPS AS IF
SOME SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCUR.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO TROUGH FRIDAY OVER NEW MEXICO AND MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA MID DAY SATURDAY WITH RAPID DRYING OUT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THE EAST EARLY ON BUT TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY WELL KILL ALMOST ALL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. NEXT SHIFT
CAN TRIM BACK POPS IF NEEDED. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY OF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN STORMS
AND THE ISOLATED STORMS ALL AREAS DURING THE EVENINGS.

UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME AND DRIFTS NORTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING WEST OF THE BAJA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TURN UPPER FLOW MOVE NORTHWEST AND
PUSH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IN. THIS MAY LIMIT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
JUST THE MOUNTAINS. GFS STILL TRYING TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT IN ON
THURSDAY SO THIS COULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER
MOUNTAINS...SCT-BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 420 WITH
ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 030. STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWLANDS AFT 22Z...WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW MOVING TO SW ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
BRINGING IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE REACHED. SOME FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN SATURDAY BUT
THEN TAPER OFF WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT DRIER THAN RECENTLY BUT
STILL ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL COOL TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 35-45% FRIDAY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT
35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR 45-55% FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  72  83  68  89 /  10  40  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           87  67  77  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              90  67  80  65  87 /  10  40  40  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              89  66  79  64  90 /  20  30  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              70  51  63  48  68 /  30  40  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  66  78  64  83 /  10  30  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             82  59  76  56  80 /  30  40  40  30  20
DEMING                  91  66  81  64  86 /  10  40  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               90  65  81  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  71  82  68  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
DELL CITY               93  68  83  64  89 /  10  50  40  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            91  71  81  67  92 /  10  40  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              86  67  79  64  84 /  10  40  40  40  30
FABENS                  92  69  82  65  91 /  10  40  40  40  30
SANTA TERESA            91  69  81  67  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  68  81  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           90  67  79  65  86 /  10  40  40  40  20
HATCH                   90  66  80  64  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
COLUMBUS                90  68  80  66  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               90  68  80  66  85 /  10  40  40  40  30
MAYHILL                 75  56  67  53  80 /  30  30  50  50  40
MESCALERO               78  56  70  53  79 /  30  30  50  50  40
TIMBERON                79  57  71  54  76 /  30  40  50  50  40
WINSTON                 79  53  72  50  81 /  30  40  50  30  20
HILLSBORO               84  62  77  59  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               88  66  78  64  84 /  10  30  40  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            82  58  75  55  80 /  30  40  50  30  20
HURLEY                  84  61  77  58  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLIFF                   86  60  78  54  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              84  57  78  51  78 /  20  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 84  61  77  58  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANIMAS                  88  65  79  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
HACHITA                 90  65  81  63  85 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  63  77  61  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLOVERDALE              83  63  78  60  81 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/HEFNER









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202040
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
240 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN MOISTURE OVER THE BORDERLAND SHOULD RESULT
IN FEWER STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER THE RESIDUAL LOW MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE WE BE
ADEQUATE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO SPARK ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A PACIFIC UPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MONSOON MOISTURE INBOUND FROM
THE SOUTH WILL MEET UP OVER THE BORDERLAND LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TO ELEVATE STORM AND RAIN CHANCES. FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND IT APPEARS THAT MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL HANG ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THE TYPICAL DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH LESSER
CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWN DAY TODAY
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THE MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWED A DROP IN PW...AND THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY VISUALIZES IT WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT
SHOVED TO OUR EAST AND STRETCHED THIN TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH IN
SHEAR ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE M-H80S. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SIT ON THE EDGE OF CONVECTION WAITING FOR SOME
TRIGGER TO INITIATED STORMS. THE MOUNTAINS HAVE THE NECESSARY
TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO HEATING AND THEY ARE
SHOWING THAT WITH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW STORMS. FOR THE
LOWLANDS...IT WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW OFF A NEARBY SKY ISLAND
THAT WILL SPARK THE ISOLATED STORMS WE EXPECT ACROSS THE DESERTS
THIS EVENING. FLOODING POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...BUT IT SHOULD BE
REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY. WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE CONVECTIVE
COLUMN WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORM OUTFLOW GUSTS NEAR 50 OVER
ISOLATED AREAS...AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL.

MUCH OF THURSDAY WE APPEAR ON THE SAME TRACK AS TODAY...WITH THE
LIMITING FACTOR IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEING A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
HOWEVER THAT INGREDIENT WILL BE LURKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING...BUT MOST AGREE THAT A PADDLE-WHEEL EFFECT
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY...AS INCREASED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT IMPORTS COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC LOW AND A CENTRAL GULF COAST RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO SW
NEW MEXICO. THUS WE EXPECT INCREASES IN CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH A BUMP IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE STREAMING NE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY SERVE TO PUSH DISTURBANCES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND THE PATTERN EVOLVES A BIT BUT NEVER REALLY
CHANGES A GREAT DEAL. WE CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SE U.S. AND PACIFIC TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THE ATMOSPHERE
NEVER APPEARS EXTRA JUICY...BUT WE ALSO NEVER SCOUR OUT ALL/MOST
OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE. THUS WE LOOK TO MOVE INTO A REPETITIVE
DIURNAL CONVECTION CYCLE OFTEN TYPICAL OF OUR REGION. GENERALLY
DRY AND RAIN FREE LATE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH ISOLATED
LOWLAND/SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

THE ONE UNKNOWN WILL BE THE FORMATION AND THE TRACK OF WHAT THE
MODELS SHOW TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OFF THE BAJA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME. CURRENT PROGS SHOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK NW OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. TRAJECTORIES SHOW NO REAL CONNECTION WITH OUR
FETCH SO NO BIG INFLUX OF MOISTURE. WE`LL WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 22/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1-3SM TSRA SCT-BKN030-060
BKN-OVC070-110 WIND VRB25G45KTS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THIS EVENING OVER THE GILA REGION AND THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS WITH WIND VRB35G50KTS VSBY BLO 1SM TSRAGS SCT-BKN020-050
BKN-OVC060-100.

21-PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS TURNED WINDS
ALOFT MORE TO THE WEST WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS IS CAUSING A
WEAK AND DIFFUSE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA WITH LESS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MOIST AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OUR WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS
TOMORROW AND 35 TO 45 PERCENT OVER AREA MOUNTAINS...THEN INCREASING
BY 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAINES INDICES RANGING
FROM VERY LOW (2) TO LOW (4) THROUGH FRIDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           67  84  64  82  67 /  20  30  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              68  87  64  85  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              66  86  63  84  65 /  10  30  30  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              48  68  49  66  47 /  20  40  40  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  85  63  83  65 /  10  20  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             58  80  57  78  57 /  20  30  40  40  40
DEMING                  67  88  63  86  65 /  10  30  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               67  87  62  86  64 /  10  40  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  87  68  86  69 /  10  30  40  40  40
DELL CITY               67  89  65  87  67 /  10  30  50  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            70  87  68  85  69 /  10  30  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              66  84  65  82  65 /  20  30  40  40  40
FABENS                  68  88  66  86  67 /  10  30  40  40  40
SANTA TERESA            69  87  66  86  68 /  10  30  40  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  87  65  86  67 /  10  30  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           68  87  64  84  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
HATCH                   67  87  63  85  65 /  10  30  40  40  40
COLUMBUS                69  87  65  85  67 /  10  30  40  40  40
OROGRANDE               68  87  65  85  67 /  20  30  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 55  73  54  71  53 /  20  40  30  50  50
MESCALERO               55  76  54  74  53 /  20  40  30  50  50
TIMBERON                56  77  55  75  54 /  20  40  40  50  50
WINSTON                 52  77  51  75  50 /  20  20  40  50  50
HILLSBORO               62  82  60  80  60 /  20  30  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               67  85  63  83  65 /  20  20  30  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            58  80  56  78  55 /  20  30  40  50  50
HURLEY                  61  82  59  80  59 /  10  30  40  40  40
CLIFF                   56  83  57  83  54 /   0  30  40  40  40
MULE CREEK              55  82  55  81  51 /  10  30  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 61  82  59  80  59 /  20  30  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  67  85  62  84  64 /  10  40  40  40  40
HACHITA                 66  87  62  86  64 /  10  40  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  83  60  82  62 /   0  40  40  40  40
CLOVERDALE              64  81  61  81  61 /  10  40  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/21







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202040
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
240 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN MOISTURE OVER THE BORDERLAND SHOULD RESULT
IN FEWER STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER THE RESIDUAL LOW MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE WE BE
ADEQUATE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO SPARK ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A PACIFIC UPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MONSOON MOISTURE INBOUND FROM
THE SOUTH WILL MEET UP OVER THE BORDERLAND LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TO ELEVATE STORM AND RAIN CHANCES. FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND IT APPEARS THAT MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL HANG ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THE TYPICAL DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH LESSER
CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWN DAY TODAY
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THE MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWED A DROP IN PW...AND THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY VISUALIZES IT WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT
SHOVED TO OUR EAST AND STRETCHED THIN TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH IN
SHEAR ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE M-H80S. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SIT ON THE EDGE OF CONVECTION WAITING FOR SOME
TRIGGER TO INITIATED STORMS. THE MOUNTAINS HAVE THE NECESSARY
TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO HEATING AND THEY ARE
SHOWING THAT WITH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW STORMS. FOR THE
LOWLANDS...IT WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW OFF A NEARBY SKY ISLAND
THAT WILL SPARK THE ISOLATED STORMS WE EXPECT ACROSS THE DESERTS
THIS EVENING. FLOODING POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...BUT IT SHOULD BE
REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY. WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE CONVECTIVE
COLUMN WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORM OUTFLOW GUSTS NEAR 50 OVER
ISOLATED AREAS...AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL.

MUCH OF THURSDAY WE APPEAR ON THE SAME TRACK AS TODAY...WITH THE
LIMITING FACTOR IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEING A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
HOWEVER THAT INGREDIENT WILL BE LURKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING...BUT MOST AGREE THAT A PADDLE-WHEEL EFFECT
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY...AS INCREASED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT IMPORTS COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC LOW AND A CENTRAL GULF COAST RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO SW
NEW MEXICO. THUS WE EXPECT INCREASES IN CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH A BUMP IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE STREAMING NE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY SERVE TO PUSH DISTURBANCES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND THE PATTERN EVOLVES A BIT BUT NEVER REALLY
CHANGES A GREAT DEAL. WE CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SE U.S. AND PACIFIC TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THE ATMOSPHERE
NEVER APPEARS EXTRA JUICY...BUT WE ALSO NEVER SCOUR OUT ALL/MOST
OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE. THUS WE LOOK TO MOVE INTO A REPETITIVE
DIURNAL CONVECTION CYCLE OFTEN TYPICAL OF OUR REGION. GENERALLY
DRY AND RAIN FREE LATE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH ISOLATED
LOWLAND/SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

THE ONE UNKNOWN WILL BE THE FORMATION AND THE TRACK OF WHAT THE
MODELS SHOW TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OFF THE BAJA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME. CURRENT PROGS SHOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK NW OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. TRAJECTORIES SHOW NO REAL CONNECTION WITH OUR
FETCH SO NO BIG INFLUX OF MOISTURE. WE`LL WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 22/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1-3SM TSRA SCT-BKN030-060
BKN-OVC070-110 WIND VRB25G45KTS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THIS EVENING OVER THE GILA REGION AND THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS WITH WIND VRB35G50KTS VSBY BLO 1SM TSRAGS SCT-BKN020-050
BKN-OVC060-100.

21-PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS TURNED WINDS
ALOFT MORE TO THE WEST WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS IS CAUSING A
WEAK AND DIFFUSE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA WITH LESS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MOIST AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OUR WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS
TOMORROW AND 35 TO 45 PERCENT OVER AREA MOUNTAINS...THEN INCREASING
BY 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAINES INDICES RANGING
FROM VERY LOW (2) TO LOW (4) THROUGH FRIDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           67  84  64  82  67 /  20  30  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              68  87  64  85  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              66  86  63  84  65 /  10  30  30  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              48  68  49  66  47 /  20  40  40  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  85  63  83  65 /  10  20  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             58  80  57  78  57 /  20  30  40  40  40
DEMING                  67  88  63  86  65 /  10  30  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               67  87  62  86  64 /  10  40  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  87  68  86  69 /  10  30  40  40  40
DELL CITY               67  89  65  87  67 /  10  30  50  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            70  87  68  85  69 /  10  30  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              66  84  65  82  65 /  20  30  40  40  40
FABENS                  68  88  66  86  67 /  10  30  40  40  40
SANTA TERESA            69  87  66  86  68 /  10  30  40  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  87  65  86  67 /  10  30  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           68  87  64  84  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
HATCH                   67  87  63  85  65 /  10  30  40  40  40
COLUMBUS                69  87  65  85  67 /  10  30  40  40  40
OROGRANDE               68  87  65  85  67 /  20  30  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 55  73  54  71  53 /  20  40  30  50  50
MESCALERO               55  76  54  74  53 /  20  40  30  50  50
TIMBERON                56  77  55  75  54 /  20  40  40  50  50
WINSTON                 52  77  51  75  50 /  20  20  40  50  50
HILLSBORO               62  82  60  80  60 /  20  30  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               67  85  63  83  65 /  20  20  30  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            58  80  56  78  55 /  20  30  40  50  50
HURLEY                  61  82  59  80  59 /  10  30  40  40  40
CLIFF                   56  83  57  83  54 /   0  30  40  40  40
MULE CREEK              55  82  55  81  51 /  10  30  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 61  82  59  80  59 /  20  30  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  67  85  62  84  64 /  10  40  40  40  40
HACHITA                 66  87  62  86  64 /  10  40  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  83  60  82  62 /   0  40  40  40  40
CLOVERDALE              64  81  61  81  61 /  10  40  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/21






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA TUESDAY HAS LIFTED OUT TO OUR NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE BORDERLAND TO
BECOME DIFFUSE WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO MAINTAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. UPPER
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST AND IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES NOW...ON IT`S WAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. MODELS
NOW BACKING OFF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AS MOISTURE PLUME
SLACKENS OFF. QUICK LOOK AT WRF SYNTHETIC CLOUD PROG SHOWS PLUME
REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO BUT BECOMING QUITE DIFFUSE. PW`S RANGING
FROM .9" NW TO 1.3" SE AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT TODAY.
BECAUSE OF THIS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE 24 HOUR DELAY IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. EXPECT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
REAL CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE FLUX WILL RESUME FROM THE SOUTH
AND PW`S WILL INCREASE BACK 1.2"-1.5" BOTH DAYS...AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. UNLESS MODELS CHANGE MORE THROUGHOUT
TODAY...MAY NEED FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS. MUCAPES
RESPECTABLE BUT NOT EXTREME...MOSTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOWING JUST SOME WEAK SHEAR. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER AS AIRMASS WILL BE MORE TROPICAL. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TRICKY DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN BUT WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY WILL INITIALLY PUSH MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST BUT VARIOUS
MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS SOME SHOULD MODELS INDICATE MORE CONSENSUS ON MOISTURE
CONTENT.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS POORLY DEFINED BUT LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z...
GENLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN150 FEW LAYERS TO
250. DVLPG AFT 17Z OVER MOUNTAINS...BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA
BKN100CB TOPS 420. ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 020. CONDS DVLPG
OVER LOWLANDS AFT 21Z BUT REMAINING MORE ISOLATED. WIND GUSTS OF
40-50 KTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. STORMS STILL SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE
MORNING ON BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE LOWLANDS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL RESUME FLOWING NORTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BOTH THUR/FRI. A BIT LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT ENOUGH WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S WILL RANGE FROM 30-40% LOWLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TO 40-50% FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 92  72  89  69  87 /  20  20  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           88  67  84  64  82 /  20  20  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              91  68  87  64  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              90  66  86  63  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              72  48  68  49  66 /  50  20  60  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  66  85  63  83 /  20  20  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             84  58  80  57  78 /  50  20  40  40  40
DEMING                  90  67  88  63  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               90  67  87  62  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  71  87  68  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
DELL CITY               92  68  89  65  87 /  20  20  40  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            90  71  87  68  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              87  66  84  65  82 /  20  20  40  40  40
FABENS                  91  69  88  66  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
SANTA TERESA            91  69  87  66  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          92  68  87  65  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           91  68  87  64  84 /  20  20  40  40  40
HATCH                   90  67  87  63  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
COLUMBUS                92  69  87  65  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
OROGRANDE               91  68  87  65  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 77  55  73  54  71 /  40  20  60  40  50
MESCALERO               80  55  76  54  74 /  40  20  60  40  50
TIMBERON                81  56  77  55  75 /  40  20  60  40  50
WINSTON                 81  52  77  51  75 /  50  20  40  40  50
HILLSBORO               86  62  82  60  80 /  20  20  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               90  67  85  63  83 /  20  20  40  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            84  58  80  56  78 /  50  20  40  40  50
HURLEY                  86  61  82  59  80 /  30  20  40  40  40
CLIFF                   88  56  83  57  83 /  30  20  40  40  40
MULE CREEK              87  55  82  55  81 /  20  20  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 86  61  82  59  80 /  20  20  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  90  67  85  62  84 /  20  20  40  40  40
HACHITA                 93  66  87  62  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  65  83  60  82 /  20  20  40  40  40
CLOVERDALE              87  64  81  61  81 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA TUESDAY HAS LIFTED OUT TO OUR NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE BORDERLAND TO
BECOME DIFFUSE WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO MAINTAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. UPPER
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST AND IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES NOW...ON IT`S WAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. MODELS
NOW BACKING OFF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AS MOISTURE PLUME
SLACKENS OFF. QUICK LOOK AT WRF SYNTHETIC CLOUD PROG SHOWS PLUME
REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO BUT BECOMING QUITE DIFFUSE. PW`S RANGING
FROM .9" NW TO 1.3" SE AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT TODAY.
BECAUSE OF THIS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE 24 HOUR DELAY IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. EXPECT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
REAL CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE FLUX WILL RESUME FROM THE SOUTH
AND PW`S WILL INCREASE BACK 1.2"-1.5" BOTH DAYS...AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. UNLESS MODELS CHANGE MORE THROUGHOUT
TODAY...MAY NEED FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS. MUCAPES
RESPECTABLE BUT NOT EXTREME...MOSTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOWING JUST SOME WEAK SHEAR. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER AS AIRMASS WILL BE MORE TROPICAL. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TRICKY DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN BUT WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY WILL INITIALLY PUSH MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST BUT VARIOUS
MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS SOME SHOULD MODELS INDICATE MORE CONSENSUS ON MOISTURE
CONTENT.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS POORLY DEFINED BUT LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z...
GENLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN150 FEW LAYERS TO
250. DVLPG AFT 17Z OVER MOUNTAINS...BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA
BKN100CB TOPS 420. ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 020. CONDS DVLPG
OVER LOWLANDS AFT 21Z BUT REMAINING MORE ISOLATED. WIND GUSTS OF
40-50 KTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. STORMS STILL SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE
MORNING ON BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE LOWLANDS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL RESUME FLOWING NORTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BOTH THUR/FRI. A BIT LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT ENOUGH WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S WILL RANGE FROM 30-40% LOWLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TO 40-50% FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 92  72  89  69  87 /  20  20  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           88  67  84  64  82 /  20  20  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              91  68  87  64  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              90  66  86  63  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              72  48  68  49  66 /  50  20  60  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  66  85  63  83 /  20  20  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             84  58  80  57  78 /  50  20  40  40  40
DEMING                  90  67  88  63  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               90  67  87  62  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  71  87  68  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
DELL CITY               92  68  89  65  87 /  20  20  40  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            90  71  87  68  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              87  66  84  65  82 /  20  20  40  40  40
FABENS                  91  69  88  66  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
SANTA TERESA            91  69  87  66  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          92  68  87  65  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           91  68  87  64  84 /  20  20  40  40  40
HATCH                   90  67  87  63  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
COLUMBUS                92  69  87  65  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
OROGRANDE               91  68  87  65  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 77  55  73  54  71 /  40  20  60  40  50
MESCALERO               80  55  76  54  74 /  40  20  60  40  50
TIMBERON                81  56  77  55  75 /  40  20  60  40  50
WINSTON                 81  52  77  51  75 /  50  20  40  40  50
HILLSBORO               86  62  82  60  80 /  20  20  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               90  67  85  63  83 /  20  20  40  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            84  58  80  56  78 /  50  20  40  40  50
HURLEY                  86  61  82  59  80 /  30  20  40  40  40
CLIFF                   88  56  83  57  83 /  30  20  40  40  40
MULE CREEK              87  55  82  55  81 /  20  20  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 86  61  82  59  80 /  20  20  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  90  67  85  62  84 /  20  20  40  40  40
HACHITA                 93  66  87  62  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  65  83  60  82 /  20  20  40  40  40
CLOVERDALE              87  64  81  61  81 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192115
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HERE COMES THE MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE THAT RECENTLY DRIFTED TO THE
WEST OVER ARIZONA IS NOW ON THE MOVE AGAIN AND THIS TIME IT IS
HEADED BACK TO THE EAST. THE PLUME IS ALREADY HELPING FIRE OFF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WE WILL SEE AN INCREASED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING SO I HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF NEW MEXICO. BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. A FEW MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE WEAK AND THAT ALLOWS THE
MOISTURE PLUME TO ZIP RIGHT ON BY US...SOME OTHER REALLY
STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE AND THAT HELPS PUSH THE PLUME BACK INTO
ARIZONA AND FINALLY A FEW MODELS HAVE THE GOLDILOCKS RIDGE (JUST
RIGHT) AND THAT KEEPS THE PLUME CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. SINCE
THERE IS NO REAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND SINCE THERE IS
NO REAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY I WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY BROAD
BRUSHED FOR NOW. I DO THINK THAT SOMETIME BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY WHEN WE WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED
THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

ALL THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. AGAIN SOME MODELS ARE HITTING
THINGS HARDER THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW I WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS
WILL BRING. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF OUR RAIN CHANCES. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BUT WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES. THINGS WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH
TEMPERATURES. IF A LOT OF MOISTURE MOVES IN WE WILL SEE WELL BELOW
NORMAL READINGS...BUT IF IT MISSES US WE WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL
READINGS. FOR NOW I`VE GONE WITH TEMPERATURE FROM 2 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. LIKE I SAID...COULD BE A LITTLE
LOWER IF MORE RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z - 20/00Z...
THE MAIN PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS NOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE EASTWARD TOMORROW.
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE TONIGHT...AND THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW:
VSBY BLO 1SM TSRAGS SCT-BKN010-030 BKN-OVC050-080 WIND VRB35G50KTS.
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE 1-3SM TSRAGS SCT-BKN030-060
BKN-OVC070-110 WIND VRB25G45KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST INTO NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASED ACTIVITY TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. MINIMUM RH 35 TO 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AND THURSDAY OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. HAINES
INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  90  72  88  70 /  40  50  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           68  86  67  83  65 /  30  40  50  40  40
LAS CRUCES              69  89  68  86  65 /  40  50  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              67  88  66  85  64 /  40  40  40  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              45  69  45  66  46 /  40  60  60  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  88  66  84  64 /  50  50  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             58  82  58  78  57 /  50  50  40  40  40
DEMING                  68  88  67  87  64 /  50  50  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               67  88  67  86  63 /  50  50  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  90  71  88  68 /  40  50  40  40  40
DELL CITY               69  90  68  88  66 /  30  40  50  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            73  88  71  86  69 /  30  40  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              67  85  66  82  65 /  40  50  50  40  40
FABENS                  71  89  69  87  67 /  40  50  40  40  40
SANTA TERESA            70  90  69  86  66 /  40  50  40  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  90  68  86  66 /  40  50  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           67  89  68  86  65 /  40  50  40  40  40
HATCH                   68  88  67  86  64 /  40  50  40  40  40
COLUMBUS                70  90  69  86  66 /  50  50  40  40  40
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  86  66 /  40  40  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 52  74  53  71  52 /  40  50  60  60  40
MESCALERO               52  77  53  74  52 /  40  50  60  60  40
TIMBERON                53  78  54  75  53 /  40  50  60  60  40
WINSTON                 49  79  52  75  51 /  50  60  50  40  40
HILLSBORO               63  84  62  80  60 /  50  50  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               68  88  67  84  64 /  50  50  40  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            56  82  58  78  56 /  50  60  50  40  40
HURLEY                  58  84  61  80  59 /  50  50  40  40  40
CLIFF                   56  86  54  82  56 /  50  50  30  40  40
MULE CREEK              52  85  53  80  53 /  50  50  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 62  84  61  80  59 /  50  50  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  67  89  67  84  63 /  50  50  40  40  40
HACHITA                 67  91  66  86  63 /  50  50  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  87  65  82  61 /  50  50  30  40  40
CLOVERDALE              64  85  64  79  61 /  50  50  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>409.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/PARK






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192115
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HERE COMES THE MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE THAT RECENTLY DRIFTED TO THE
WEST OVER ARIZONA IS NOW ON THE MOVE AGAIN AND THIS TIME IT IS
HEADED BACK TO THE EAST. THE PLUME IS ALREADY HELPING FIRE OFF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WE WILL SEE AN INCREASED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING SO I HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF NEW MEXICO. BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. A FEW MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE WEAK AND THAT ALLOWS THE
MOISTURE PLUME TO ZIP RIGHT ON BY US...SOME OTHER REALLY
STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE AND THAT HELPS PUSH THE PLUME BACK INTO
ARIZONA AND FINALLY A FEW MODELS HAVE THE GOLDILOCKS RIDGE (JUST
RIGHT) AND THAT KEEPS THE PLUME CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. SINCE
THERE IS NO REAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND SINCE THERE IS
NO REAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY I WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY BROAD
BRUSHED FOR NOW. I DO THINK THAT SOMETIME BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY WHEN WE WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED
THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

ALL THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. AGAIN SOME MODELS ARE HITTING
THINGS HARDER THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW I WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS
WILL BRING. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF OUR RAIN CHANCES. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BUT WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES. THINGS WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH
TEMPERATURES. IF A LOT OF MOISTURE MOVES IN WE WILL SEE WELL BELOW
NORMAL READINGS...BUT IF IT MISSES US WE WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL
READINGS. FOR NOW I`VE GONE WITH TEMPERATURE FROM 2 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. LIKE I SAID...COULD BE A LITTLE
LOWER IF MORE RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z - 20/00Z...
THE MAIN PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS NOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE EASTWARD TOMORROW.
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE TONIGHT...AND THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW:
VSBY BLO 1SM TSRAGS SCT-BKN010-030 BKN-OVC050-080 WIND VRB35G50KTS.
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE 1-3SM TSRAGS SCT-BKN030-060
BKN-OVC070-110 WIND VRB25G45KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST INTO NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASED ACTIVITY TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. MINIMUM RH 35 TO 40 PERCENT TOMORROW AND THURSDAY OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. HAINES
INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  90  72  88  70 /  40  50  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           68  86  67  83  65 /  30  40  50  40  40
LAS CRUCES              69  89  68  86  65 /  40  50  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              67  88  66  85  64 /  40  40  40  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              45  69  45  66  46 /  40  60  60  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  88  66  84  64 /  50  50  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             58  82  58  78  57 /  50  50  40  40  40
DEMING                  68  88  67  87  64 /  50  50  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               67  88  67  86  63 /  50  50  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  90  71  88  68 /  40  50  40  40  40
DELL CITY               69  90  68  88  66 /  30  40  50  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            73  88  71  86  69 /  30  40  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              67  85  66  82  65 /  40  50  50  40  40
FABENS                  71  89  69  87  67 /  40  50  40  40  40
SANTA TERESA            70  90  69  86  66 /  40  50  40  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  90  68  86  66 /  40  50  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           67  89  68  86  65 /  40  50  40  40  40
HATCH                   68  88  67  86  64 /  40  50  40  40  40
COLUMBUS                70  90  69  86  66 /  50  50  40  40  40
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  86  66 /  40  40  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 52  74  53  71  52 /  40  50  60  60  40
MESCALERO               52  77  53  74  52 /  40  50  60  60  40
TIMBERON                53  78  54  75  53 /  40  50  60  60  40
WINSTON                 49  79  52  75  51 /  50  60  50  40  40
HILLSBORO               63  84  62  80  60 /  50  50  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               68  88  67  84  64 /  50  50  40  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            56  82  58  78  56 /  50  60  50  40  40
HURLEY                  58  84  61  80  59 /  50  50  40  40  40
CLIFF                   56  86  54  82  56 /  50  50  30  40  40
MULE CREEK              52  85  53  80  53 /  50  50  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 62  84  61  80  59 /  50  50  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  67  89  67  84  63 /  50  50  40  40  40
HACHITA                 67  91  66  86  63 /  50  50  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  87  65  82  61 /  50  50  30  40  40
CLOVERDALE              64  85  64  79  61 /  50  50  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>409.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/PARK







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN PUSHING MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM DEMING WEST TODAY AND
THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE BORDERLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY LESSEN THE THUNDERSTORMS SOME FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY BUT THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS CLOUDS AND RAIN INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO REACH A CONSENSUS ON THE UPCOMING
WEATHER...THEY ALL HAVE THE BASIC FEATURES DOWN PAT BUT STILL
DISAGREE ON SOME OF THE MOVEMENT/SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. GFS MOST
PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ECMWF JUST BEHIND IT. NAM AND CMC
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STATIC WITH PATTERN. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT
AND WITH ECMWF SIMILAR IN GENERAL PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
SOLUTION. UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE WEATHER. TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WITH
SEVERAL VORT CENTERS LIES OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. EXPECT THE WESTERN CWA
TO INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WED/THUR AS THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME PASS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PW`S MOSTLY 1.2" TO 1.4" WED/THUR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL BE PRESENT. BASIC PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD ALSO SUGGEST SOME
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS BUT PROG SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING STRONG
SHEARING.

UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEEKEND. ECMWF ABOUT ONE
DAY SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. NAM/CMC ALTERNATE SOLUTION
PHASES UPPER LOW WITH WITH CIRCULATION FROM T.S. LOWELL AND THEN
HOLDS THIS "SUPER" TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA AS UPPER HIGH GULF OF
MEXICO BUILDS STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS
PATTERN COULD KEEP HEAVIER RAINS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT FOR NOW WILL
DISAVOW THIS SOLUTION.

LASTLY TROPICAL FEATURE MARIE COULD BECOME A PLAYER BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHEAR SOME MOISTURE OFF SYSTEM UP TO THE AREA
TUE/WED. THIS SCENARIO LIKELY TO CHANCE SEVERAL TIMES AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z - 20/00Z...
THE MAIN PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS NOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. EAST OF DEMING...GOOD VFR WITH SEP LYRS TO 300.
DEMING WEST...SCT-BKN140 LAYERS TO 300...WITH AN ISOLATED BKN110
-SHRA. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB
TOPS 450. ISOLD 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 020. THESE CONDITIONS THEN
DVLPG LOWLANDS AFT 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE PLUME WILL DEEPEN UP OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM DEMING WEST...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. TO
THE EAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LOW NEARS ARIZONA...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ALL AREAS
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING. UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY AND WILL LESSEN MOISTURE BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY THE AREA OUT.
THEREFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY BUT THEN BEGIN FALLING WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MIN RH`S WILL RANGE FROM 35-45% LOWLANDS...AND 45-55% FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  75  90  73  88 /  20  40  50  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           90  70  86  68  83 /  20  30  40  50  40
LAS CRUCES              92  71  89  69  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              94  69  88  67  85 /  20  40  40  40  50
CLOUDCROFT              70  47  69  46  66 /  30  40  60  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  70  88  67  84 /  20  40  50  40  40
SILVER CITY             83  60  82  59  78 /  50  50  50  40  40
DEMING                  92  70  88  68  87 /  50  50  50  40  40
LORDSBURG               89  69  88  68  86 /  50  50  50  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      94  76  90  72  88 /  20  40  50  40  40
DELL CITY               93  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  40  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            94  75  88  72  86 /  20  30  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              88  69  85  67  82 /  20  40  50  50  40
FABENS                  93  73  89  70  87 /  20  40  50  40  40
SANTA TERESA            92  72  90  70  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          92  71  90  69  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           93  69  89  69  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
HATCH                   92  70  88  68  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
COLUMBUS                91  72  90  70  86 /  40  50  50  40  40
OROGRANDE               93  71  89  69  86 /  20  40  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 78  54  74  54  71 /  30  40  50  60  60
MESCALERO               78  54  77  54  74 /  40  40  50  60  60
TIMBERON                78  55  78  55  75 /  30  40  50  60  60
WINSTON                 80  51  79  53  75 /  50  50  60  50  40
HILLSBORO               86  65  84  63  80 /  50  50  50  40  40
SPACEPORT               93  70  88  68  84 /  20  40  50  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            80  58  82  59  78 /  50  50  60  50  40
HURLEY                  85  60  84  62  80 /  50  50  50  40  40
CLIFF                   83  58  86  55  82 /  50  50  50  30  40
MULE CREEK              80  54  85  54  80 /  60  50  50  40  40
FAYWOOD                 86  64  84  62  80 /  50  50  50  40  40
ANIMAS                  88  69  89  68  84 /  50  50  50  40  40
HACHITA                 88  69  91  67  86 /  50  50  50  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  67  87  66  82 /  50  50  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              79  66  85  65  79 /  50  50  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN PUSHING MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM DEMING WEST TODAY AND
THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE BORDERLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY LESSEN THE THUNDERSTORMS SOME FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY BUT THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS CLOUDS AND RAIN INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO REACH A CONSENSUS ON THE UPCOMING
WEATHER...THEY ALL HAVE THE BASIC FEATURES DOWN PAT BUT STILL
DISAGREE ON SOME OF THE MOVEMENT/SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. GFS MOST
PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ECMWF JUST BEHIND IT. NAM AND CMC
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STATIC WITH PATTERN. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT
AND WITH ECMWF SIMILAR IN GENERAL PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
SOLUTION. UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE WEATHER. TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WITH
SEVERAL VORT CENTERS LIES OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. EXPECT THE WESTERN CWA
TO INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WED/THUR AS THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME PASS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PW`S MOSTLY 1.2" TO 1.4" WED/THUR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL BE PRESENT. BASIC PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD ALSO SUGGEST SOME
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS BUT PROG SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING STRONG
SHEARING.

UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEEKEND. ECMWF ABOUT ONE
DAY SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. NAM/CMC ALTERNATE SOLUTION
PHASES UPPER LOW WITH WITH CIRCULATION FROM T.S. LOWELL AND THEN
HOLDS THIS "SUPER" TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA AS UPPER HIGH GULF OF
MEXICO BUILDS STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS
PATTERN COULD KEEP HEAVIER RAINS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT FOR NOW WILL
DISAVOW THIS SOLUTION.

LASTLY TROPICAL FEATURE MARIE COULD BECOME A PLAYER BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHEAR SOME MOISTURE OFF SYSTEM UP TO THE AREA
TUE/WED. THIS SCENARIO LIKELY TO CHANCE SEVERAL TIMES AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z - 20/00Z...
THE MAIN PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS NOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. EAST OF DEMING...GOOD VFR WITH SEP LYRS TO 300.
DEMING WEST...SCT-BKN140 LAYERS TO 300...WITH AN ISOLATED BKN110
-SHRA. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB
TOPS 450. ISOLD 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 020. THESE CONDITIONS THEN
DVLPG LOWLANDS AFT 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE PLUME WILL DEEPEN UP OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM DEMING WEST...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. TO
THE EAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LOW NEARS ARIZONA...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ALL AREAS
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING. UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY AND WILL LESSEN MOISTURE BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY THE AREA OUT.
THEREFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY BUT THEN BEGIN FALLING WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MIN RH`S WILL RANGE FROM 35-45% LOWLANDS...AND 45-55% FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  75  90  73  88 /  20  40  50  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           90  70  86  68  83 /  20  30  40  50  40
LAS CRUCES              92  71  89  69  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              94  69  88  67  85 /  20  40  40  40  50
CLOUDCROFT              70  47  69  46  66 /  30  40  60  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  70  88  67  84 /  20  40  50  40  40
SILVER CITY             83  60  82  59  78 /  50  50  50  40  40
DEMING                  92  70  88  68  87 /  50  50  50  40  40
LORDSBURG               89  69  88  68  86 /  50  50  50  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      94  76  90  72  88 /  20  40  50  40  40
DELL CITY               93  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  40  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            94  75  88  72  86 /  20  30  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              88  69  85  67  82 /  20  40  50  50  40
FABENS                  93  73  89  70  87 /  20  40  50  40  40
SANTA TERESA            92  72  90  70  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          92  71  90  69  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           93  69  89  69  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
HATCH                   92  70  88  68  86 /  20  40  50  40  40
COLUMBUS                91  72  90  70  86 /  40  50  50  40  40
OROGRANDE               93  71  89  69  86 /  20  40  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 78  54  74  54  71 /  30  40  50  60  60
MESCALERO               78  54  77  54  74 /  40  40  50  60  60
TIMBERON                78  55  78  55  75 /  30  40  50  60  60
WINSTON                 80  51  79  53  75 /  50  50  60  50  40
HILLSBORO               86  65  84  63  80 /  50  50  50  40  40
SPACEPORT               93  70  88  68  84 /  20  40  50  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            80  58  82  59  78 /  50  50  60  50  40
HURLEY                  85  60  84  62  80 /  50  50  50  40  40
CLIFF                   83  58  86  55  82 /  50  50  50  30  40
MULE CREEK              80  54  85  54  80 /  60  50  50  40  40
FAYWOOD                 86  64  84  62  80 /  50  50  50  40  40
ANIMAS                  88  69  89  68  84 /  50  50  50  40  40
HACHITA                 88  69  91  67  86 /  50  50  50  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  67  87  66  82 /  50  50  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              79  66  85  65  79 /  50  50  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER










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