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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272142
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF DEMING. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A GRADUAL
INCREASE...BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY BUT THEN
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS CLOUDS AND RAIN
INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A MORE ACTIVE DAY TODAY AFTER SEVERAL SLOW DAYS WITH
CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SLID OFF OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
DESERT ACROSS SW NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY HAS INCREASED MOISTURE...WITH PW`S OF 1.1" TO 1.2".
MORNING KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWS SMALL CAPS FROM YESTERDAY GONE AS GOOD
COOLING ALOFT ERASED THEM. STILL EXPECT HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEST OF DEMING TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF EL
PASO ARE THROWING OUT GOOD OUTFLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWLANDS TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL
BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. DCAPE VALUES SUGGEST WINDS OF 50+ MPH
MID AFTERNOON BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHES BY SUNSET. PEA-SIZE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT HIGH WBZ`S...AROUND 15000 FT MSL...AND WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE LARGER HAIL.

OVERALL TREND FOR THE WEEK IS TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. RELATIVELY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
CWA...SO DESPITE UPPER HIGH RETURNING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEMING WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE EAST. PW`S WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.2" TO 1.4"
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING AS HIGH AS 1.5" BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO BECOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGS IN LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AND ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD AS HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A
LARGER SCALE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z - 29/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM SCT-BKN080-120. ISOLD-SCT
TSRA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. WIND
GENERALLY 5-10KTS EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR ANY TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL HAVE ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL LIKELY HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE HIGHER
WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN AREA MTNS...WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE
LOWLANDS...AND AROUND 10 POINTS HIGHER IN THE MTNS. HAINES INDICES
VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  97  75  95  75 /  10   0  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           75  93  73  90  72 /  10   0   0  10  20
LAS CRUCES              72  96  70  93  69 /  10   0  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              73  97  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              53  73  51  71  49 /  20  30  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  95  69  92  68 /  30  20  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             64  87  62  86  61 /  30  30  40  40  30
DEMING                  72  96  70  93  69 /  30  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               71  95  69  92  68 /  30  30  40  40  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  98  74  95  74 /  10   0  10  10  20
DELL CITY               68  96  66  94  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            74  99  72  97  72 /  10   0   0  10  20
LOMA LINDA              70  88  68  87  65 /  10   0  10  10  20
FABENS                  74  98  72  96  72 /  10   0  10  10  20
SANTA TERESA            73  96  71  94  71 /  10   0  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  95  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           68  96  66  93  65 /  10  10  10  10  20
HATCH                   70  97  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                72  96  70  93  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               72  98  70  95  69 /  10   0  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 62  81  61  79  59 /  20  30  10  20  20
MESCALERO               59  83  58  81  56 /  20  30  20  20  20
TIMBERON                58  81  57  79  55 /  20  30  10  20  20
WINSTON                 65  86  62  84  60 /  30  40  40  50  30
HILLSBORO               71  89  69  88  66 /  30  30  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               71  95  69  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  88  57  86  55 /  30  40  40  40  40
HURLEY                  64  90  62  86  59 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   64  93  62  92  60 /  30  30  40  40  30
MULE CREEK              61  92  59  89  57 /  30  30  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 68  89  66  88  63 /  30  30  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  72  95  69  93  70 /  30  30  40  40  20
HACHITA                 70  94  68  93  67 /  30  30  40  40  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  96  71  93  70 /  30  30  40  40  20
CLOVERDALE              66  88  64  88  61 /  30  30  30  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/PARK









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272142
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF DEMING. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A GRADUAL
INCREASE...BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY BUT THEN
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS CLOUDS AND RAIN
INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A MORE ACTIVE DAY TODAY AFTER SEVERAL SLOW DAYS WITH
CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SLID OFF OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
DESERT ACROSS SW NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY HAS INCREASED MOISTURE...WITH PW`S OF 1.1" TO 1.2".
MORNING KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWS SMALL CAPS FROM YESTERDAY GONE AS GOOD
COOLING ALOFT ERASED THEM. STILL EXPECT HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEST OF DEMING TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF EL
PASO ARE THROWING OUT GOOD OUTFLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWLANDS TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL
BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. DCAPE VALUES SUGGEST WINDS OF 50+ MPH
MID AFTERNOON BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHES BY SUNSET. PEA-SIZE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT HIGH WBZ`S...AROUND 15000 FT MSL...AND WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE LARGER HAIL.

OVERALL TREND FOR THE WEEK IS TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. RELATIVELY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
CWA...SO DESPITE UPPER HIGH RETURNING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEMING WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE EAST. PW`S WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.2" TO 1.4"
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING AS HIGH AS 1.5" BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO BECOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGS IN LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AND ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD AS HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A
LARGER SCALE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z - 29/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM SCT-BKN080-120. ISOLD-SCT
TSRA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. WIND
GENERALLY 5-10KTS EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR ANY TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL HAVE ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL LIKELY HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE HIGHER
WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN AREA MTNS...WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE
LOWLANDS...AND AROUND 10 POINTS HIGHER IN THE MTNS. HAINES INDICES
VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  97  75  95  75 /  10   0  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           75  93  73  90  72 /  10   0   0  10  20
LAS CRUCES              72  96  70  93  69 /  10   0  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              73  97  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              53  73  51  71  49 /  20  30  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  95  69  92  68 /  30  20  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             64  87  62  86  61 /  30  30  40  40  30
DEMING                  72  96  70  93  69 /  30  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               71  95  69  92  68 /  30  30  40  40  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  98  74  95  74 /  10   0  10  10  20
DELL CITY               68  96  66  94  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            74  99  72  97  72 /  10   0   0  10  20
LOMA LINDA              70  88  68  87  65 /  10   0  10  10  20
FABENS                  74  98  72  96  72 /  10   0  10  10  20
SANTA TERESA            73  96  71  94  71 /  10   0  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  95  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           68  96  66  93  65 /  10  10  10  10  20
HATCH                   70  97  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                72  96  70  93  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               72  98  70  95  69 /  10   0  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 62  81  61  79  59 /  20  30  10  20  20
MESCALERO               59  83  58  81  56 /  20  30  20  20  20
TIMBERON                58  81  57  79  55 /  20  30  10  20  20
WINSTON                 65  86  62  84  60 /  30  40  40  50  30
HILLSBORO               71  89  69  88  66 /  30  30  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               71  95  69  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  88  57  86  55 /  30  40  40  40  40
HURLEY                  64  90  62  86  59 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   64  93  62  92  60 /  30  30  40  40  30
MULE CREEK              61  92  59  89  57 /  30  30  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 68  89  66  88  63 /  30  30  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  72  95  69  93  70 /  30  30  40  40  20
HACHITA                 70  94  68  93  67 /  30  30  40  40  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  96  71  93  70 /  30  30  40  40  20
CLOVERDALE              66  88  64  88  61 /  30  30  30  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/PARK










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271131
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK THEN DIP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WAY UP THIS WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE WAY DOWN. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS
CONTROLLED OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WOBBLE
AROUND THE REGION AND AS IT WOBBLES IT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM ONE DIRECTION OR ANOTHER. FOR TODAY AND
MONDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE WOBBLING TO OUR EAST AND THAT WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH...SO I HAVE GIVEN MOST
LOCATIONS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY EVENING. BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL WOBBLE BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. BY THEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS...SO DESPITE THE
RIDGE ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST AND IT WILL ALSO HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN EVEN MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND IT WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 170% OF
NORMAL. ALSO WINDS BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT
AND THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT DROPPING LOTS OF WATER IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME. IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STAY CONSISTENT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED
SOME FLASH FLOOD WATCHES LATER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK OR THE
WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...FOR TODAY...DESPITE THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNING TO THE REGION WE WON`T SEE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
STARTING MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS OUR RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE OUR HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AND WE WILL
SEE HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WE CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASING AND WE WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT SO WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MOISTURE WAS
MAKING ITS RETURN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WE WILL SEE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. WE
WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AND WILL SEE CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND RUN BKN090 NEAR 06Z AND BEYOND. WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...12012KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SIT OVER THE REGION...BUT
MOISTURE WAS QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND BY THE END
OF THE COMING WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS. SURFACE WINDS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE. MIN RH`S WILL START TODAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS TO NEAR 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS...THEN BY MIDWEEK IT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS TO THE MID 30`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE MIN RH`S
RANGING FROM NEAR 30% IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 50% IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  75  95  73  94 /   0  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           94  72  90  70  89 /   0  10   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              97  69  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              98  70  94  68  93 /   0  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              76  48  71  47  70 /  10  20  20  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   96  68  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             91  60  87  58  85 /  30  30  40  40  40
DEMING                  97  69  93  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               97  68  92  66  91 /  30  30  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  74  95  72  94 /   0  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               98  66  94  64  93 /   0  10   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK           101  72  97  70  96 /   0  10   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              94  66  86  64  86 /   0  10  10  10  10
FABENS                 100  72  96  70  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            98  70  94  68  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71  92  69  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           96  65  92  63  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
HATCH                   97  67  96  65  95 /  20  10  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                95  69  93  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               99  69  95  67  94 /   0  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 84  58  79  57  78 /  10  20  20  10  20
MESCALERO               86  55  81  54  80 /  10  20  20  10  20
TIMBERON                84  54  79  53  78 /  10  20  20  10  20
WINSTON                 90  61  84  58  83 /  30  20  50  40  50
HILLSBORO               95  67  87  65  87 /  20  20  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               96  68  92  66  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            92  56  86  53  85 /  30  30  40  40  40
HURLEY                  93  60  88  58  85 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   95  59  91  57  92 /  30  30  40  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  55  88  53  89 /  30  30  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 95  64  87  62  87 /  30  20  30  30  30
ANIMAS                  95  69  92  66  92 /  30  30  40  40  40
HACHITA                 96  67  91  65  92 /  20  30  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          97  70  93  68  92 /  30  30  40  40  40
CLOVERDALE              94  62  86  60  87 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271131
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK THEN DIP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WAY UP THIS WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE WAY DOWN. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS
CONTROLLED OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WOBBLE
AROUND THE REGION AND AS IT WOBBLES IT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM ONE DIRECTION OR ANOTHER. FOR TODAY AND
MONDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE WOBBLING TO OUR EAST AND THAT WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH...SO I HAVE GIVEN MOST
LOCATIONS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY EVENING. BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL WOBBLE BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. BY THEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS...SO DESPITE THE
RIDGE ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST AND IT WILL ALSO HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN EVEN MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND IT WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 170% OF
NORMAL. ALSO WINDS BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT
AND THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT DROPPING LOTS OF WATER IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME. IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STAY CONSISTENT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED
SOME FLASH FLOOD WATCHES LATER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK OR THE
WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...FOR TODAY...DESPITE THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNING TO THE REGION WE WON`T SEE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
STARTING MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS OUR RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE OUR HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AND WE WILL
SEE HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WE CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASING AND WE WILL BE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT SO WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MOISTURE WAS
MAKING ITS RETURN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WE WILL SEE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. WE
WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AND WILL SEE CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND RUN BKN090 NEAR 06Z AND BEYOND. WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...12012KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SIT OVER THE REGION...BUT
MOISTURE WAS QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND BY THE END
OF THE COMING WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS. SURFACE WINDS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE. MIN RH`S WILL START TODAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS TO NEAR 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS...THEN BY MIDWEEK IT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS TO THE MID 30`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE MIN RH`S
RANGING FROM NEAR 30% IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 50% IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  75  95  73  94 /   0  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           94  72  90  70  89 /   0  10   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              97  69  93  67  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              98  70  94  68  93 /   0  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              76  48  71  47  70 /  10  20  20  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   96  68  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             91  60  87  58  85 /  30  30  40  40  40
DEMING                  97  69  93  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               97  68  92  66  91 /  30  30  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  74  95  72  94 /   0  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               98  66  94  64  93 /   0  10   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK           101  72  97  70  96 /   0  10   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              94  66  86  64  86 /   0  10  10  10  10
FABENS                 100  72  96  70  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            98  70  94  68  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71  92  69  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           96  65  92  63  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
HATCH                   97  67  96  65  95 /  20  10  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                95  69  93  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               99  69  95  67  94 /   0  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 84  58  79  57  78 /  10  20  20  10  20
MESCALERO               86  55  81  54  80 /  10  20  20  10  20
TIMBERON                84  54  79  53  78 /  10  20  20  10  20
WINSTON                 90  61  84  58  83 /  30  20  50  40  50
HILLSBORO               95  67  87  65  87 /  20  20  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               96  68  92  66  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            92  56  86  53  85 /  30  30  40  40  40
HURLEY                  93  60  88  58  85 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   95  59  91  57  92 /  30  30  40  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  55  88  53  89 /  30  30  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 95  64  87  62  87 /  30  20  30  30  30
ANIMAS                  95  69  92  66  92 /  30  30  40  40  40
HACHITA                 96  67  91  65  92 /  20  30  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          97  70  93  68  92 /  30  30  40  40  40
CLOVERDALE              94  62  86  60  87 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OF
DEMING. UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN DRIFTING NORTH AND
EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME ADDED MOISTURE TO MOVE
INTO THE BORDERLAND AND BEGIN A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL
PERSIST WEST OF DEMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HUMIDITY TOWARDS MID WEEK LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER RATHER QUIET NIGHT ON TAP AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR FUNNELING IN AND SOUTH OF THE HIGH. TPW
PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S RANGING FROM 1" WEST TO .8" EAST. MOUNTAINS WERE
ABLE TO GET FAIR AMOUNT OF CU GROWTH NOONTIME BUT ONLY IN THE GILA
ARE WE NOW SEEING SOME OF THAT CU GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS. STILL
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MOSTLY WEST OF DEMING.

LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NOW JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF DEMING AND BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE BACK INTO THE EASTERN SECTION. AS THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH WILL IMPORT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO MUCH
OF THE CWA. MONDAY/TUESDAY COULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DEMING WEST AND ISOLATED EAST.

UPPER HIGH MOVES BACK OVER NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS...GFS/ECMWF/CMC...ALL
SHOW DECENT MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK. WENT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALL AREAS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DOUBT THAT SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT
BUT LATER FORECAST PACKAGES CAN WHITTLE AWAY IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z - 28/00Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM SKC-SCT080-120. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
OVER GILA REGION AND BOOTHEEL...AND SLIGHT CHC OF -TSRA IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS UNTIL 04Z. WIND GENERALLY 5-10KTS EXCEPT STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR ANY TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHING FROM OKLAHOMA ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NEW MEXICO WILL BRING HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN ZONES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE THE WESTERN
ZONES RETAIN A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN THE GILA REGION AND THE
BOOTHEEL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S LOWLANDS AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE BOOTHEEL AND OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77 100  78  98  76 /   0   0  10   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           75  95  75  93  73 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              72  98  72  96  70 /   0   0  10   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              73  99  73  97  71 /   0   0  10   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              52  77  51  74  50 /  10  10  20  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  97  71  95  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             65  92  63  90  61 /  20  30  30  40  40
DEMING                  72  98  72  96  70 /  10   0  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               71  98  71  95  69 /  20  30  30  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      76 100  77  98  75 /   0   0  10   0  10
DELL CITY               68  99  69  97  67 /   0   0  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            74 102  75 100  73 /   0   0  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              71  95  69  89  67 /   0   0  10   0  10
FABENS                  74 101  75  99  73 /   0   0  10   0  10
SANTA TERESA            73  99  73  97  71 /   0   0  10   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  97  74  95  72 /   0   0  10   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           68  97  68  95  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
HATCH                   70  98  70  99  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
COLUMBUS                72  96  72  96  70 /  10   0  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               72 100  72  98  70 /   0   0  10   0  10
MAYHILL                 62  85  61  82  60 /  10  10  20  20  10
MESCALERO               59  87  58  84  57 /  10  10  20  20  10
TIMBERON                58  85  57  82  56 /  10  10  20  20  10
WINSTON                 64  91  64  87  61 /  20  30  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               72  96  70  90  68 /  10  10  20  30  30
SPACEPORT               71  97  71  95  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            59  93  59  89  56 /  30  30  30  40  40
HURLEY                  65  94  63  91  61 /  20  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   61  96  62  94  60 /  20  30  30  40  40
MULE CREEK              60  95  58  91  56 /  20  30  30  40  40
FAYWOOD                 69  96  67  90  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
ANIMAS                  71  96  72  95  69 /  30  30  30  40  40
HACHITA                 70  97  70  94  68 /  20  20  30  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  98  73  96  71 /  30  30  30  40  40
CLOVERDALE              67  95  65  89  63 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/PARK










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OF
DEMING. UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN DRIFTING NORTH AND
EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME ADDED MOISTURE TO MOVE
INTO THE BORDERLAND AND BEGIN A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL
PERSIST WEST OF DEMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HUMIDITY TOWARDS MID WEEK LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER RATHER QUIET NIGHT ON TAP AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR FUNNELING IN AND SOUTH OF THE HIGH. TPW
PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S RANGING FROM 1" WEST TO .8" EAST. MOUNTAINS WERE
ABLE TO GET FAIR AMOUNT OF CU GROWTH NOONTIME BUT ONLY IN THE GILA
ARE WE NOW SEEING SOME OF THAT CU GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS. STILL
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MOSTLY WEST OF DEMING.

LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NOW JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF DEMING AND BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE BACK INTO THE EASTERN SECTION. AS THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH WILL IMPORT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO MUCH
OF THE CWA. MONDAY/TUESDAY COULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DEMING WEST AND ISOLATED EAST.

UPPER HIGH MOVES BACK OVER NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS...GFS/ECMWF/CMC...ALL
SHOW DECENT MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK. WENT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALL AREAS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DOUBT THAT SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT
BUT LATER FORECAST PACKAGES CAN WHITTLE AWAY IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z - 28/00Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM SKC-SCT080-120. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
OVER GILA REGION AND BOOTHEEL...AND SLIGHT CHC OF -TSRA IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS UNTIL 04Z. WIND GENERALLY 5-10KTS EXCEPT STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR ANY TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHING FROM OKLAHOMA ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NEW MEXICO WILL BRING HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN ZONES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE THE WESTERN
ZONES RETAIN A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN THE GILA REGION AND THE
BOOTHEEL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S LOWLANDS AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE BOOTHEEL AND OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77 100  78  98  76 /   0   0  10   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           75  95  75  93  73 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              72  98  72  96  70 /   0   0  10   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              73  99  73  97  71 /   0   0  10   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              52  77  51  74  50 /  10  10  20  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  97  71  95  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             65  92  63  90  61 /  20  30  30  40  40
DEMING                  72  98  72  96  70 /  10   0  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               71  98  71  95  69 /  20  30  30  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      76 100  77  98  75 /   0   0  10   0  10
DELL CITY               68  99  69  97  67 /   0   0  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            74 102  75 100  73 /   0   0  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              71  95  69  89  67 /   0   0  10   0  10
FABENS                  74 101  75  99  73 /   0   0  10   0  10
SANTA TERESA            73  99  73  97  71 /   0   0  10   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  97  74  95  72 /   0   0  10   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           68  97  68  95  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
HATCH                   70  98  70  99  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
COLUMBUS                72  96  72  96  70 /  10   0  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               72 100  72  98  70 /   0   0  10   0  10
MAYHILL                 62  85  61  82  60 /  10  10  20  20  10
MESCALERO               59  87  58  84  57 /  10  10  20  20  10
TIMBERON                58  85  57  82  56 /  10  10  20  20  10
WINSTON                 64  91  64  87  61 /  20  30  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               72  96  70  90  68 /  10  10  20  30  30
SPACEPORT               71  97  71  95  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            59  93  59  89  56 /  30  30  30  40  40
HURLEY                  65  94  63  91  61 /  20  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   61  96  62  94  60 /  20  30  30  40  40
MULE CREEK              60  95  58  91  56 /  20  30  30  40  40
FAYWOOD                 69  96  67  90  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
ANIMAS                  71  96  72  95  69 /  30  30  30  40  40
HACHITA                 70  97  70  94  68 /  20  20  30  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  98  73  96  71 /  30  30  30  40  40
CLOVERDALE              67  95  65  89  63 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/PARK









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261141
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
541 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKENED WILL BE WEST OF RIVER.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE END OF JULY WE ARE IN THE HEART OF MONSOON
SEASON. WE`VE BEEN PRETTY DRY THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
TIME OF YEAR IT IS TOUGH TO MAINTAIN THAT DRYNESS. THERE IS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE
WILL TRY AND PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE ARIZONA BORDER AND INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. I`VE GIVEN LOCATION WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY TRIES TO PUSH EAST WE WILL
SEE OUR RAIN CHANCE SPREAD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BY MONDAY
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION TO
GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM AREA WIDE...THIS DESPITE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRY ONE MORE TIME TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SO THOSE DAYS WILL SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION...BUT NOT
ELIMINATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HAVE
WORKED ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION ON THURSDAY THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE
FORECAST. I HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE OUR RAIN CHANCES HIGHER
STARTING THE FIRST OF THE COMING WEEK...BUT IF THE MODELS KEEP TO
THE FORECAST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP JUMPING POPS HIGHER ESPECIALLY
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

WE WILL SEE LITTLE RELIEF TO OUR HEAT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW MANY LOWLAND
LOCATIONS TO FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK. AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS TO THE REGION WE WILL SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE HIGHS
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND IF THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED WE MAY EVEN SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. EAST OF THE DIVIDE WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CEILINGS AT SCT090...WHILE WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WE MAY SEE CEILINGS OF BKN090 IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...WHILE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WE WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS TODAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS CONTROLLED OUR
WEATHER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING ITS GRIPE ON OUR WEATHER.
WE`VE BEEN MAINLY DRY THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT MOISTURE COTNINUES
TO LURK TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SOME OF THAT MOISTURE MAY TRY AND
SLIP ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER SO WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. ON SUNDAY THE
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY. IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD
TOGETHER WE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINS FOR THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL
THRESSHOLDS EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBLILITY OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM THE MID TEENS
IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY TO NEAR 20% IN
THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE MID 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDWEEK TO
THE MID 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 40% IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                101  77 100  77  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           96  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              99  71  98  71  95 /   0   0   0  10   0
ALAMOGORDO             100  72  99  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              79  51  77  51  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   98  70  97  70  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             92  62  91  62  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  99  71  98  71  95 /   0  10   0  20   0
LORDSBURG               98  70  98  70  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO     101  76 100  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY              100  68  99  68  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           103  74 102  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              93  68  94  68  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                 102  74 101  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA           100  72  99  72  96 /   0   0   0  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          98  73  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           98  67  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                  102  69  98  69  98 /   0   0   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                99  71  96  71  95 /   0  10   0  20   0
OROGRANDE              101  71 100  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 86  61  85  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
MESCALERO               88  58  87  58  84 /  20  10  10  20  10
TIMBERON                86  57  85  57  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
WINSTON                 90  63  91  63  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               94  69  95  69  89 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               98  70  97  70  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            92  58  93  58  88 /  30  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  94  62  93  62  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLIFF                   97  60  96  61  95 /  30  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              94  57  95  57  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 94  66  95  66  89 /  20  20   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  98  70  98  71  94 /  20  30  20  30  10
HACHITA                 97  69  97  69  93 /  10  20  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          99  72  98  72  95 /  10  30  20  30  10
CLOVERDALE              93  64  94  64  88 /  20  30  30  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261141
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
541 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKENED WILL BE WEST OF RIVER.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE END OF JULY WE ARE IN THE HEART OF MONSOON
SEASON. WE`VE BEEN PRETTY DRY THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
TIME OF YEAR IT IS TOUGH TO MAINTAIN THAT DRYNESS. THERE IS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE
WILL TRY AND PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE ARIZONA BORDER AND INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. I`VE GIVEN LOCATION WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY TRIES TO PUSH EAST WE WILL
SEE OUR RAIN CHANCE SPREAD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BY MONDAY
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION TO
GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM AREA WIDE...THIS DESPITE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRY ONE MORE TIME TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SO THOSE DAYS WILL SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION...BUT NOT
ELIMINATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HAVE
WORKED ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION ON THURSDAY THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE
FORECAST. I HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE OUR RAIN CHANCES HIGHER
STARTING THE FIRST OF THE COMING WEEK...BUT IF THE MODELS KEEP TO
THE FORECAST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP JUMPING POPS HIGHER ESPECIALLY
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

WE WILL SEE LITTLE RELIEF TO OUR HEAT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW MANY LOWLAND
LOCATIONS TO FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK. AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS TO THE REGION WE WILL SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE HIGHS
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND IF THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED WE MAY EVEN SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. EAST OF THE DIVIDE WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CEILINGS AT SCT090...WHILE WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WE MAY SEE CEILINGS OF BKN090 IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...WHILE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WE WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS TODAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS CONTROLLED OUR
WEATHER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING ITS GRIPE ON OUR WEATHER.
WE`VE BEEN MAINLY DRY THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT MOISTURE COTNINUES
TO LURK TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SOME OF THAT MOISTURE MAY TRY AND
SLIP ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER SO WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. ON SUNDAY THE
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY. IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD
TOGETHER WE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINS FOR THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL
THRESSHOLDS EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBLILITY OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM THE MID TEENS
IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY TO NEAR 20% IN
THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE MID 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDWEEK TO
THE MID 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 40% IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                101  77 100  77  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           96  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              99  71  98  71  95 /   0   0   0  10   0
ALAMOGORDO             100  72  99  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              79  51  77  51  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   98  70  97  70  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             92  62  91  62  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  99  71  98  71  95 /   0  10   0  20   0
LORDSBURG               98  70  98  70  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO     101  76 100  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY              100  68  99  68  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           103  74 102  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              93  68  94  68  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                 102  74 101  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA           100  72  99  72  96 /   0   0   0  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          98  73  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           98  67  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                  102  69  98  69  98 /   0   0   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                99  71  96  71  95 /   0  10   0  20   0
OROGRANDE              101  71 100  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 86  61  85  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
MESCALERO               88  58  87  58  84 /  20  10  10  20  10
TIMBERON                86  57  85  57  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
WINSTON                 90  63  91  63  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               94  69  95  69  89 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               98  70  97  70  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            92  58  93  58  88 /  30  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  94  62  93  62  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLIFF                   97  60  96  61  95 /  30  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              94  57  95  57  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 94  66  95  66  89 /  20  20   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  98  70  98  71  94 /  20  30  20  30  10
HACHITA                 97  69  97  69  93 /  10  20  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          99  72  98  72  95 /  10  30  20  30  10
CLOVERDALE              93  64  94  64  88 /  20  30  30  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252138
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
338 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MOSTLY DRY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS FLIRTING
WITH THE CENTURY MARK. STARTING NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE MOISTURE
SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA TO GIVE US A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN OUR RAIN CHANCES
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GIVE THE AZ/NM BORDER ZONES AND MOUNTAIN ZONES AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE REST OF US
OUR OUT OF LUCK FOR RAIN FOR AWHILE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE RESULTS ARE THE SAME. THE
ECMWF SLOWLY DRIFTS AND WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WHICH
ALLOWS LOTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN A MARKED UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS NOW KEEPING
THE UPPER RIDGE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO...BUT AS THE
WEEK PROGRESS MOISTURE JUST SLOWLY BEGINS TO SLIP IN FROM ALMOST
EVERY DIRECTION. IN ADDITION THE GFS STILL HAS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH BRINGS IN EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE TO ENDURE SEVERAL
MORE DRY DAYS...BUT THEN WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO RUN 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN TO
NEAR NORMAL. AND IF THE EXTENDED GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED WE COULD
EVEN SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z - 27/00Z...
GENLY VFR THROUGH PERIOD. UNTIL 04Z...ISOLD -TSRA SCT/BKN120 TOPS
400 MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF DEMING. LIKELY SAME PATTERN ON
SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z AND OVER
THE LOWLANDS WEST OF DEMING AFT 21Z. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN TO CONTINUED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PARK
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY...LIMITING CONVECTION TO JUST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
ALLOWING MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTH TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK BACK INTO THE FIRE ZONES
WEST OF EL PASO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH`S
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN ABOUT 15-25% LOWLANDS AND 25-35% FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76 101  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           73  96  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  99  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71 100  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              51  79  51  77  51 /  10  20  10  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  98  70  97  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             61  92  62  91  62 /  10  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  70  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               69  98  70  98  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      75 101  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67 100  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            73 103  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  73 102  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            71 100  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  98  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  98  67  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   68 102  69  98  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                70  99  71  96  71 /   0   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               70 101  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 60  86  61  85  61 /  10  20  10  10  20
MESCALERO               57  88  58  87  58 /  10  20  10  10  20
TIMBERON                56  86  57  85  57 /  10  20  10  10  20
WINSTON                 62  90  63  91  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               68  94  69  95  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               69  98  70  97  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  92  58  93  58 /  10  30  30  30  30
HURLEY                  61  94  62  93  62 /   0  20  20  20  20
CLIFF                   60  97  60  96  61 /  10  30  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              56  94  57  95  57 /  10  20  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 65  94  66  95  66 /   0  20  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  70  98  70  98  71 /  10  20  30  20  20
HACHITA                 68  97  69  97  69 /   0  10  20  10  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  99  72  98  72 /  10  10  30  20  20
CLOVERDALE              63  93  64  94  64 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/HEFNER






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250943
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
343 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR
THE ARIZONA BORDER. A WEAK COLD FRONT PLUS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAY GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG AND VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
RESULTANT CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING WARM DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT
INTO THE CWA FROM THE EAST. LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXHIBIT TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME BUT
MOISTURE INFLOW WILL REMAIN SHALLOW UNDER THE CONTINENTAL
SUBSIDING FLOW ALOFT ALOFT. THUS AIR MASS WILL BE RATHER DRY AND
STABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN AN INCH AND AND LITTLE OR
NO CAPE MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MOST LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WHERE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND/OR WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH MENTION OF RAIN
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AFTER TUESDAY AND
DEVELOP A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL SUSTAIN MOISTURE INFLOW. THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE
ABOVE AN INCH MOST AREAS BY NEXT THURSDAY CAUSING AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE. ACCORDINGLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/1200Z-26/1200Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
CEILINGS BELOW 10,000 FEET AGL. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT
EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR
THE ARIZONA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT PLUS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  76 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           94  73  96  75  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              97  70  99  72  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              98  71 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              77  51  79  52  77 /  10  10  20  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   96  69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             89  61  92  63  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
DEMING                  97  70  99  72  98 /   0   0   0  10   0
LORDSBURG               96  69  98  71  98 /  10  10  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  75 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               98  67 100  69  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           101  73 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              91  67  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                 100  73 102  75 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            98  71 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  72  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           96  66  98  68  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   97  68 102  70  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                95  70  99  72  96 /   0   0   0  10   0
OROGRANDE               99  70 101  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 85  60  86  62  85 /  10  10  20  10  10
MESCALERO               87  57  88  59  87 /  10  10  20  10  10
TIMBERON                85  56  86  58  85 /  10  10  20  10  10
WINSTON                 89  62  90  64  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               92  68  94  70  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               96  69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            91  57  92  59  93 /  10  10  30  30  30
HURLEY                  91  61  94  63  93 /   0   0  20  20  20
CLIFF                   96  60  97  61  96 /  10  10  30  20  20
MULE CREEK              93  56  94  58  95 /  10  10  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 92  65  94  67  95 /   0   0  20  20   0
ANIMAS                  97  70  98  71  98 /  10  10  20  30  20
HACHITA                 96  68  97  70  97 /   0   0  10  20  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          97  71  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  30  20
CLOVERDALE              91  63  93  65  94 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250943
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
343 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR
THE ARIZONA BORDER. A WEAK COLD FRONT PLUS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAY GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG AND VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
RESULTANT CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING WARM DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT
INTO THE CWA FROM THE EAST. LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXHIBIT TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME BUT
MOISTURE INFLOW WILL REMAIN SHALLOW UNDER THE CONTINENTAL
SUBSIDING FLOW ALOFT ALOFT. THUS AIR MASS WILL BE RATHER DRY AND
STABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN AN INCH AND AND LITTLE OR
NO CAPE MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MOST LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WHERE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND/OR WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH MENTION OF RAIN
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AFTER TUESDAY AND
DEVELOP A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL SUSTAIN MOISTURE INFLOW. THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE
ABOVE AN INCH MOST AREAS BY NEXT THURSDAY CAUSING AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE. ACCORDINGLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/1200Z-26/1200Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
CEILINGS BELOW 10,000 FEET AGL. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT
EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR
THE ARIZONA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT PLUS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  76 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           94  73  96  75  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              97  70  99  72  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              98  71 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              77  51  79  52  77 /  10  10  20  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   96  69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             89  61  92  63  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
DEMING                  97  70  99  72  98 /   0   0   0  10   0
LORDSBURG               96  69  98  71  98 /  10  10  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  75 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               98  67 100  69  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           101  73 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              91  67  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                 100  73 102  75 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            98  71 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  72  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           96  66  98  68  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   97  68 102  70  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                95  70  99  72  96 /   0   0   0  10   0
OROGRANDE               99  70 101  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 85  60  86  62  85 /  10  10  20  10  10
MESCALERO               87  57  88  59  87 /  10  10  20  10  10
TIMBERON                85  56  86  58  85 /  10  10  20  10  10
WINSTON                 89  62  90  64  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               92  68  94  70  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               96  69  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            91  57  92  59  93 /  10  10  30  30  30
HURLEY                  91  61  94  63  93 /   0   0  20  20  20
CLIFF                   96  60  97  61  96 /  10  10  30  20  20
MULE CREEK              93  56  94  58  95 /  10  10  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 92  65  94  67  95 /   0   0  20  20   0
ANIMAS                  97  70  98  71  98 /  10  10  20  30  20
HACHITA                 96  68  97  70  97 /   0   0  10  20  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          97  71  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  30  20
CLOVERDALE              91  63  93  65  94 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





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