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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192049
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NICE NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WITH LOWLAND AREAS
SEEING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AREA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
CLEARING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
BORDERLAND FROM THE WEST COAST. IT BRINGS STRONGER WINDS AND ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND WARM
WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS BORDERLAND LOWLAND AREAS. AREA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MEETS A SURFACE COOL
FRONT TRYING TO PENETRATE THE AREA FROM THE EAST. GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SUPPLY IN THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT DO MATERIALIZES WILL BE
BRIEF WITH SPOTTY AND LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STICK AROUND UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON TRYING TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT THE
REGIONAL AIR MASS AND WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY DURING ALL THREE AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THE PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE CWA. MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE FOR THE AREA. GFS IS MORE MOIST AND HAS INCREASED RAIN
COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF BRINGS
PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. THUS...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE WHAT EXTENDED SUPERBLEND AND PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAS
PUT INTO GRIDDED POP/WEATHER FIELDS...SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN ZONES AND PERHAPS THE BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO
WITH GENERALLY INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE WINDY BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THE LOW QUICKLY FILLS AND EJECTS EASTWARD LEAVING BEHIND
DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND MILD DYNAMICS
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN STORMS INTO FRIDAY. FOR NEXT WEEKEND A
FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
RESULTS SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z...

BKN CU WITH BASES GENERALLY
7-10KFT DEVELOPING OVER AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A STAY THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY
DOWNDRAFT WINDS FROM EVAPORATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
THE GILA REGION...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SIERRA COUNTY...AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. DID NOT MENTION VCTS IN TCS TAF DUE TO
OVERALL LOW PROBABILITIES AT A POINT LOCATION.

OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY
EXCEPT WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING...AND MAYBE A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWLAND
DESERTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CU BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY DRY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CU HAS BUILT UP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS EXPECTED...BUT SO FAR VERY FEW RADAR ECHOES
SHOWING UP. GIVEN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS. IF
WE CANNOT GET SOMETHING GOING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE TOMORROW GIVEN SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER FORCING.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER LOP-SIDED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OVERALL
PATTERN...BUT A DEEPENING TROUGH AND EMBEDDED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE EAST...BRINGING INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...AND EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THU/FRI ALSO LOOK TO HAVE THE STRONGEST
WINDS... BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CRITERIA. IT BEARS WATCHING BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  81  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  78  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              46  79  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  78  48  80  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              35  57  38  60  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  78  47  79  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             42  72  42  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  43  80  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               42  79  43  79  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  81  55  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               48  79  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            50  82  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  75  51  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  49  81  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            49  80  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          52  78  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           43  79  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   45  80  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                48  79  50  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               50  78  50  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 38  64  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               38  64  40  67  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  64  41  67  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 38  70  38  72  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               42  76  44  77  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  79  44  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            38  70  38  71  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  40  74  42  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   39  79  40  78  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  76  36  75  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 42  75  43  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  79  47  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 44  80  44  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  79  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              43  75  44  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
PAZOS/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192049
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NICE NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WITH LOWLAND AREAS
SEEING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AREA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
CLEARING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
BORDERLAND FROM THE WEST COAST. IT BRINGS STRONGER WINDS AND ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND WARM
WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS BORDERLAND LOWLAND AREAS. AREA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MEETS A SURFACE COOL
FRONT TRYING TO PENETRATE THE AREA FROM THE EAST. GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SUPPLY IN THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT DO MATERIALIZES WILL BE
BRIEF WITH SPOTTY AND LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STICK AROUND UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON TRYING TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT THE
REGIONAL AIR MASS AND WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY DURING ALL THREE AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THE PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE CWA. MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE FOR THE AREA. GFS IS MORE MOIST AND HAS INCREASED RAIN
COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF BRINGS
PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. THUS...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE WHAT EXTENDED SUPERBLEND AND PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAS
PUT INTO GRIDDED POP/WEATHER FIELDS...SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN ZONES AND PERHAPS THE BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO
WITH GENERALLY INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE WINDY BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THE LOW QUICKLY FILLS AND EJECTS EASTWARD LEAVING BEHIND
DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND MILD DYNAMICS
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN STORMS INTO FRIDAY. FOR NEXT WEEKEND A
FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
RESULTS SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z...

BKN CU WITH BASES GENERALLY
7-10KFT DEVELOPING OVER AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A STAY THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY
DOWNDRAFT WINDS FROM EVAPORATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
THE GILA REGION...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SIERRA COUNTY...AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. DID NOT MENTION VCTS IN TCS TAF DUE TO
OVERALL LOW PROBABILITIES AT A POINT LOCATION.

OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY
EXCEPT WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING...AND MAYBE A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWLAND
DESERTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CU BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY DRY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CU HAS BUILT UP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS EXPECTED...BUT SO FAR VERY FEW RADAR ECHOES
SHOWING UP. GIVEN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS. IF
WE CANNOT GET SOMETHING GOING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE TOMORROW GIVEN SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER FORCING.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER LOP-SIDED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OVERALL
PATTERN...BUT A DEEPENING TROUGH AND EMBEDDED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE EAST...BRINGING INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...AND EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THU/FRI ALSO LOOK TO HAVE THE STRONGEST
WINDS... BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CRITERIA. IT BEARS WATCHING BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  81  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  78  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              46  79  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  78  48  80  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              35  57  38  60  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  78  47  79  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             42  72  42  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  43  80  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               42  79  43  79  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  81  55  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               48  79  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            50  82  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  75  51  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  49  81  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            49  80  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          52  78  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           43  79  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   45  80  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                48  79  50  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               50  78  50  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 38  64  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               38  64  40  67  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  64  41  67  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 38  70  38  72  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               42  76  44  77  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  79  44  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            38  70  38  71  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  40  74  42  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   39  79  40  78  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  76  36  75  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 42  75  43  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  79  47  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 44  80  44  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  79  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              43  75  44  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
PAZOS/HARDIMAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190908
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY HELP FUEL
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS IMPACTED WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ITS WAKE WILL BE A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AND A WESTERLY JET SETTING UP
TO OUR SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WINDS MAINLY
OVER OF THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM 4 TO 6 DEGREES BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PENETRATE PART WAY INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FUELED BY LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS THAT DO OCCUR WILL VERY SPOTTY AND LIGHT.

BY TUESDAY THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL CHANGE WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT THE AIR MASS FURTHER
AND END ANY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAYS.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DAMPENED THE STRONG WINDS PROJECTED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA BOTH DAYS. IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WINDY BOTH DAYS BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE LOOKING LIKE
THEY WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE AREA ARE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THAT SAID...RAIN
CHANCES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN ZONES AND PERHAPS
THE BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO WITH GENERALLY INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. EXPECTED RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z - 20/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PD. ISOLD -SHRA OVER
HIGHER MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-03Z. SKY CONDS WILL BE
SCT100-140 AFT 18Z FOR AREAS NORTH OF KLRU. NW WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AFT 18Z AT 8-14 KNOTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SOME BRIEF LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH PART WAY INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  53  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           76  47  78  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  46  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              75  47  78  48  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  34  60  37  61 /  10  10  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  47  78  47  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             71  42  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  43  80  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  42  79  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      80  54  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               79  48  79  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  50  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  49  75  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  80  49  81  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            80  49  80  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  52  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  43  79  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   79  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                78  48  79  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               76  50  78  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  38  65  42  68 /  10  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               63  38  65  40  67 /  10  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  39  65  41  67 /  10  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 70  38  71  38  72 /  10  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               74  42  76  44  77 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  43  79  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            69  38  71  38  71 /  10  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  73  40  74  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  39  79  40  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  36  76  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 74  42  75  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  79  46  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 79  44  80  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          78  45  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  43  75  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190908
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY HELP FUEL
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS IMPACTED WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ITS WAKE WILL BE A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AND A WESTERLY JET SETTING UP
TO OUR SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WINDS MAINLY
OVER OF THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM 4 TO 6 DEGREES BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PENETRATE PART WAY INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FUELED BY LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS THAT DO OCCUR WILL VERY SPOTTY AND LIGHT.

BY TUESDAY THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL CHANGE WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT THE AIR MASS FURTHER
AND END ANY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAYS.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DAMPENED THE STRONG WINDS PROJECTED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA BOTH DAYS. IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WINDY BOTH DAYS BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE LOOKING LIKE
THEY WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE AREA ARE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THAT SAID...RAIN
CHANCES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN ZONES AND PERHAPS
THE BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO WITH GENERALLY INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. EXPECTED RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z - 20/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PD. ISOLD -SHRA OVER
HIGHER MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-03Z. SKY CONDS WILL BE
SCT100-140 AFT 18Z FOR AREAS NORTH OF KLRU. NW WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AFT 18Z AT 8-14 KNOTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SOME BRIEF LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH PART WAY INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  53  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           76  47  78  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  46  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              75  47  78  48  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  34  60  37  61 /  10  10  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  47  78  47  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             71  42  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  43  80  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  42  79  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      80  54  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               79  48  79  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  50  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  49  75  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  80  49  81  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            80  49  80  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  52  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  43  79  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   79  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                78  48  79  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               76  50  78  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  38  65  42  68 /  10  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               63  38  65  40  67 /  10  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  39  65  41  67 /  10  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 70  38  71  38  72 /  10  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               74  42  76  44  77 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  43  79  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            69  38  71  38  71 /  10  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  73  40  74  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  39  79  40  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  36  76  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 74  42  75  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  79  46  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 79  44  80  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          78  45  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  43  75  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182051
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
251 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. DAYTIME CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE LEAVING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND
SUNNY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES AND WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER.
JUST A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE WEATHER REPEATS MONDAY. TUESDAY ONWARD STRONGER WINDS RETURN FOR
EACH AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY LOOKING THE STRONGEST FOR THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD FOR THE WEEK AHEAD BUT A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER E CO. IT IS
S-L-O-W-L-Y DRIFTING EAST TOWARDS KS. WE SIT UNDER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LARGE-SCALE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE RESULT THUS FAR TODAY HAS BEEN
TO ROTATE A NICE CU-FIELD OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM THE NW.
HOWEVER STILL NO ENHANCED RADAR ECHOS OR LIGHTNING. MOST OF THE
CU IS QUITE FLAT. VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE ACTUAL 12Z SOUNDING
AND THE PROG 18-00Z SOUNDINGS. SHOULD BE A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH PW`S AT 1/3". MODELS DO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE LEANING
TOWARD MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH LI`S NEAR 0 AND CAPE LESS THAN 100
J/KG. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT STORM POTENTIAL IS THERE...BUT IT IS
MARGINAL WITH ONLY ISOLATED AND WEAK STORMS. BOTH THE HRRR AND WRF
MODELS SHOW LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE STORMS OVER SIERRA/OTERO COUNTIES
AS DO THE GFS AND NAM. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THOSE AREAS FOR THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THREATS/IMPACT WOULD
BE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND/LOW VSBY WITH DUST.

FOR SUNDAY IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE VERY SIMULAR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH REGARDS TO TODAY. WITH THE LOW EXITING AND HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES RISING ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS WE SHOULD GAIN ABOUT
5-7 DEGREES ON TEMPS SUNDAY. SUNDAY`S MOISTURE PROFILE RESEMBLES
TODAY`S WITH JUST A THIN LAYER OF MODERATELY MOIST AIR ALOFT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY MINOR (WEAK) IMPULSES ALOFT TRACK OVER
IN WNW FLOW. WITH OROGRAPHICS WE COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN
STORMS...BUT AGAIN ISOLATED AND WEAK. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD STAY
DRY. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER DEAL AS WINDS DROP BELOW THE
BREEZY CATEGORY OF 15 TO 25 MPH.

TUESDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ORIENTED AND THAT MEANS
WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN. A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH TO
OUR WEST AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL TIGHTEN
GRADIENTS AND INCREASE WINDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL...AND BREEZY.

THURSDAY THE WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH WHAT
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL MOISTURE. DESPITE APPEARING TO STRUGGLE WITH
IT THE MODELS DO SPIT OUT SOME QPF AND THUS WHAT LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW WE ARE IGNORING THE
SLIGHT PCPN POTENTIAL IN FAVOR WHAT WHAT SHOULD BE A LARGER
IMPACT...WIND. THURSDAY LOOKS WINDY BUT CLOUDS MAY TEMPER THE
SPEEDS A BIT.

FRIDAY THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PASSES AND A MODERATELY WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES IN TO BRING A SMALL BIT OF COOLING AND
LIGHTER WINDS. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z-20/00Z...
SCT-BKN CU FIELDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SVC-LRU LINE...WITH BASES RUNNING BETWEEN 9-10K
FEET. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF TCS.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.  WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL RANGE 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN SW NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH LOWER
WIND SPEEDS. A FEW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TOMORROW...FAVORING AREAS NORTH OF
AN LSB-LRU LINE.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THEN NEXT FEW HOURS
DUE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO AND AN INCREASINGLY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW AND
MID TEENS. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 PM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS
TOMORROW...WHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 52  80  54  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           46  76  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  78  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              45  76  49  78  49 /   0  10  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  56  36  58  39 /  10  10  10  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  76  48  78  48 /   0  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             40  71  43  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  42  80  44  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               40  79  43  80  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  80  55  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               46  79  50  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            48  80  52  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  73  50  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  48  80  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            47  80  50  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          50  77  53  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           40  78  44  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                47  78  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  77  52  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  64  39  66  43 /  10  10  10   0   0
MESCALERO               38  63  40  66  41 /  10  10  10   0   0
TIMBERON                39  64  41  66  42 /  10  10  10   0   0
WINSTON                 36  69  39  72  39 /  10  10  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               42  75  44  77  45 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               41  78  44  79  44 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            37  69  39  71  39 /  10  10  10   0   0
HURLEY                  39  73  42  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   39  78  40  79  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              33  75  37  76  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 41  74  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  44  79  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 42  79  45  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          42  78  46  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              41  74  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ111-112.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

14/25







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180908
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO-COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG CIRCULATION ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE BREEZY WEST WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARTLY STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY BUT WILL
STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE DIMINISHED WIND SPEEDS DUE TO A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHORT WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE
STATE. THAT SAID...WEAK IMPULSES PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
MAY ACT ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HELP GENERATE ISOLATED BRIEF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY IF ANY OCCURS AT
ALL. DRY LINE FORMATION TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS WHICH MEANS AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE LOWLANDS.

THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO BREEZY AFTERNOONS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
RESULTING IN ELEVATIONS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS PATTERN.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY.
THIS WILL GREATLY STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND
WILL ALSO DEEPEN A SURFACE LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. AS RESULT
WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DUST AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR WIND STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE PACIFIC
LOW WILL TAKE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MEANS CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE VERY LIMITED...MAINLY THE MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND AREAS NORTH. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND EXITS TO THE
EAST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKY CONDS
GENERALLY FEW- SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT
18Z TO 16-21G30KTS...DIMINISHING AFT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CO/NM BORDER AND WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW MAY PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15
PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  52  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           71  46  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  45  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  45  75  48  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  34  57  35  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   73  46  75  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
SILVER CITY             65  40  70  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  74  42  79  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               74  40  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      75  52  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               75  46  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            76  48  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              68  48  72  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  75  48  79  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            75  47  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  50  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  40  77  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   75  44  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                73  47  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               73  48  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 60  39  63  38  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
MESCALERO               59  38  62  39  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
TIMBERON                59  39  63  40  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
WINSTON                 65  36  69  38  72 /  10  10  10  10   0
HILLSBORO               71  42  74  43  77 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               73  41  77  43  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  37  68  38  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
HURLEY                  68  39  72  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   73  39  77  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              70  33  74  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 69  41  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  74  44  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 74  42  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  42  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              69  41  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111-112.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180908
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO-COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG CIRCULATION ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE BREEZY WEST WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARTLY STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY BUT WILL
STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE DIMINISHED WIND SPEEDS DUE TO A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHORT WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE
STATE. THAT SAID...WEAK IMPULSES PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
MAY ACT ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HELP GENERATE ISOLATED BRIEF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY IF ANY OCCURS AT
ALL. DRY LINE FORMATION TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS WHICH MEANS AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE LOWLANDS.

THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO BREEZY AFTERNOONS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
RESULTING IN ELEVATIONS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS PATTERN.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY.
THIS WILL GREATLY STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND
WILL ALSO DEEPEN A SURFACE LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. AS RESULT
WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DUST AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR WIND STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE PACIFIC
LOW WILL TAKE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MEANS CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE VERY LIMITED...MAINLY THE MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND AREAS NORTH. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND EXITS TO THE
EAST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKY CONDS
GENERALLY FEW- SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT
18Z TO 16-21G30KTS...DIMINISHING AFT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CO/NM BORDER AND WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW MAY PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15
PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  52  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           71  46  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  45  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  45  75  48  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  34  57  35  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   73  46  75  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
SILVER CITY             65  40  70  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  74  42  79  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               74  40  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      75  52  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               75  46  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            76  48  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              68  48  72  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  75  48  79  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            75  47  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  50  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  40  77  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   75  44  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                73  47  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               73  48  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 60  39  63  38  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
MESCALERO               59  38  62  39  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
TIMBERON                59  39  63  40  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
WINSTON                 65  36  69  38  72 /  10  10  10  10   0
HILLSBORO               71  42  74  43  77 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               73  41  77  43  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  37  68  38  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
HURLEY                  68  39  72  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   73  39  77  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              70  33  74  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 69  41  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  74  44  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 74  42  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  42  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              69  41  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111-112.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180908
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO-COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG CIRCULATION ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE BREEZY WEST WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARTLY STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY BUT WILL
STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE DIMINISHED WIND SPEEDS DUE TO A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHORT WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE
STATE. THAT SAID...WEAK IMPULSES PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
MAY ACT ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HELP GENERATE ISOLATED BRIEF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY IF ANY OCCURS AT
ALL. DRY LINE FORMATION TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS WHICH MEANS AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE LOWLANDS.

THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO BREEZY AFTERNOONS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
RESULTING IN ELEVATIONS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS PATTERN.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY.
THIS WILL GREATLY STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND
WILL ALSO DEEPEN A SURFACE LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. AS RESULT
WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DUST AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR WIND STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE PACIFIC
LOW WILL TAKE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MEANS CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE VERY LIMITED...MAINLY THE MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND AREAS NORTH. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND EXITS TO THE
EAST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKY CONDS
GENERALLY FEW- SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT
18Z TO 16-21G30KTS...DIMINISHING AFT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CO/NM BORDER AND WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW MAY PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15
PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  52  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           71  46  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  45  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  45  75  48  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  34  57  35  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   73  46  75  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
SILVER CITY             65  40  70  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  74  42  79  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               74  40  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      75  52  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               75  46  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            76  48  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              68  48  72  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  75  48  79  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            75  47  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  50  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  40  77  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   75  44  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                73  47  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               73  48  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 60  39  63  38  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
MESCALERO               59  38  62  39  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
TIMBERON                59  39  63  40  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
WINSTON                 65  36  69  38  72 /  10  10  10  10   0
HILLSBORO               71  42  74  43  77 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               73  41  77  43  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  37  68  38  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
HURLEY                  68  39  72  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   73  39  77  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              70  33  74  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 69  41  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  74  44  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 74  42  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  42  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              69  41  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111-112.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172024
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
224 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY GENERATE
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE
WEEKEND. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY SLIM BUT WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS JUST IN CASE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT WITH COOLISH TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
SOME OUTLYING AREAS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THERE ALSO
REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OF BOTH DAYS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MEANS AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR THE LOWLANDS.

A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TYPE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AS PART OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING OVER THE COUNTRY. A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP LIMIT
WIND SPEEDS...BUT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WEAK DRY LINE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THAT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SLIM.

THE DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE HAD SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
PROBLEMS WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. BEST GUESS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE THAT THE LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONSISTENCY AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT100-120 THRU 12Z...THEN FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250. W
WINDS OF 10-15G25KTS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10KTS AND SHIFT MORE TO THE
NW BY 04Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 18Z TO 15-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CO/NM BORDER AND WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL
VALUES...SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWLANDS.
LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 44  75  51  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           39  71  45  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  74  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  70  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  53  33  58  34 /  10  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  72  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  65  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  34  73  42  79  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  73  39  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  74  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  75  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            41  76  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  68  47  73  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  41  75  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            39  75  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          42  73  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           32  74  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  75  43  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                40  73  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               40  73  47  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 33  60  38  64  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               32  59  37  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                34  59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 31  65  35  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               34  71  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               33  73  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  65  36  69  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  32  68  38  72  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   31  73  38  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              28  70  32  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  69  40  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  38  74  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  74  41  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          37  73  41  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              35  69  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172024
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
224 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY GENERATE
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE
WEEKEND. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY SLIM BUT WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS JUST IN CASE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT WITH COOLISH TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
SOME OUTLYING AREAS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THERE ALSO
REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OF BOTH DAYS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MEANS AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR THE LOWLANDS.

A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TYPE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AS PART OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING OVER THE COUNTRY. A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP LIMIT
WIND SPEEDS...BUT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WEAK DRY LINE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THAT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SLIM.

THE DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE HAD SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
PROBLEMS WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. BEST GUESS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE THAT THE LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONSISTENCY AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT100-120 THRU 12Z...THEN FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250. W
WINDS OF 10-15G25KTS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10KTS AND SHIFT MORE TO THE
NW BY 04Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 18Z TO 15-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CO/NM BORDER AND WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL
VALUES...SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWLANDS.
LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 44  75  51  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           39  71  45  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  74  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  70  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  53  33  58  34 /  10  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  72  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  65  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  34  73  42  79  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  73  39  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  74  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  75  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            41  76  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  68  47  73  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  41  75  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            39  75  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          42  73  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           32  74  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  75  43  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                40  73  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               40  73  47  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 33  60  38  64  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               32  59  37  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                34  59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 31  65  35  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               34  71  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               33  73  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  65  36  69  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  32  68  38  72  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   31  73  38  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              28  70  32  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  69  40  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  38  74  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  74  41  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          37  73  41  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              35  69  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172024
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
224 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY GENERATE
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE
WEEKEND. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY SLIM BUT WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS JUST IN CASE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT WITH COOLISH TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
SOME OUTLYING AREAS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THERE ALSO
REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OF BOTH DAYS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MEANS AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR THE LOWLANDS.

A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TYPE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AS PART OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING OVER THE COUNTRY. A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP LIMIT
WIND SPEEDS...BUT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WEAK DRY LINE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THAT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SLIM.

THE DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE HAD SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
PROBLEMS WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. BEST GUESS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE THAT THE LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONSISTENCY AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT100-120 THRU 12Z...THEN FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250. W
WINDS OF 10-15G25KTS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10KTS AND SHIFT MORE TO THE
NW BY 04Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 18Z TO 15-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CO/NM BORDER AND WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL
VALUES...SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWLANDS.
LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 44  75  51  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           39  71  45  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  74  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  70  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  53  33  58  34 /  10  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  72  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  65  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  34  73  42  79  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  73  39  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  74  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  75  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            41  76  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  68  47  73  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  41  75  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            39  75  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          42  73  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           32  74  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  75  43  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                40  73  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               40  73  47  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 33  60  38  64  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               32  59  37  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                34  59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 31  65  35  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               34  71  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               33  73  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  65  36  69  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  32  68  38  72  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   31  73  38  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              28  70  32  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  69  40  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  38  74  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  74  41  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          37  73  41  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              35  69  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171015
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL SEE A COOL BUT
SUNNY DAY TODAY. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. FOR THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE CLOUDS RETURN
TO THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AND USHERED IN COOLER
AIR TO THE REGION. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPS THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER AIR
TO THE REGION CONTINUES TO SIT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST. USUALLY WITH THE LOW SO NEAR
BY WE MIGHT SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT ALONG WITH
THE COOLER AIR THE LOW HELPED BRING IN SOME VERY DRY AIR. DEW
POINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ARE NEAR ZERO THIS MORNING. IT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH RAIN DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUCH A DRY
ENVIRONMENT.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT AND THAT WILL ALLOW SOME
WARMER WESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS BACK TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT EXITS THE REGION. FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE MOIST AIR
TO OUR EAST AND THE DRY WESTERLY WINDS. THE DRY LINE WILL TRY ITS
BEST TO BACK INTO THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS HAD THE
DRY LINE BACKING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE CURRENT RUN HAS THE WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING THE
DRY LINE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE DRY LINE CAN BE
THE INITIATOR OF THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH WHAT
FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH. FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT MENTIONABLE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK ALL THE EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
WE WILL SEE A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RIGHT NOW MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...SO FOR NOW THE EXTENDED FORECAST KEEPS US
MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z-18/12
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME
TO TIME BUT CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY BE UNLIMITED TODAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON THEY WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE
BREEZY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY.
WE WILL SEE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW MIN RH`S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE
WILL ALSO SEE MOISTURE INCREASING. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ON A COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  46  76  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  41  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  39  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  40  70  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  34  53  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  37  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             62  35  67  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  71  37  74  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  35  75  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  46  75  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               72  41  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            75  42  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              66  42  70  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  73  43  77  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            72  41  76  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  44  74  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           69  34  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   70  38  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                70  42  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               70  42  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  36  61  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               56  35  61  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  37  60  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 61  34  66  36  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               66  36  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  35  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            61  35  67  37  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  65  34  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   69  33  75  39  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              66  31  72  34  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 65  35  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  40  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 71  38  75  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  39  75  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              67  37  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ401>410.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171015
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL SEE A COOL BUT
SUNNY DAY TODAY. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. FOR THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE CLOUDS RETURN
TO THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AND USHERED IN COOLER
AIR TO THE REGION. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPS THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER AIR
TO THE REGION CONTINUES TO SIT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST. USUALLY WITH THE LOW SO NEAR
BY WE MIGHT SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT ALONG WITH
THE COOLER AIR THE LOW HELPED BRING IN SOME VERY DRY AIR. DEW
POINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ARE NEAR ZERO THIS MORNING. IT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH RAIN DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUCH A DRY
ENVIRONMENT.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT AND THAT WILL ALLOW SOME
WARMER WESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS BACK TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT EXITS THE REGION. FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE MOIST AIR
TO OUR EAST AND THE DRY WESTERLY WINDS. THE DRY LINE WILL TRY ITS
BEST TO BACK INTO THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS HAD THE
DRY LINE BACKING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE CURRENT RUN HAS THE WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING THE
DRY LINE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE DRY LINE CAN BE
THE INITIATOR OF THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH WHAT
FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH. FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT MENTIONABLE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK ALL THE EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
WE WILL SEE A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RIGHT NOW MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...SO FOR NOW THE EXTENDED FORECAST KEEPS US
MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z-18/12
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME
TO TIME BUT CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY BE UNLIMITED TODAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON THEY WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE
BREEZY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY.
WE WILL SEE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW MIN RH`S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE
WILL ALSO SEE MOISTURE INCREASING. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ON A COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  46  76  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  41  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  39  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  40  70  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  34  53  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  37  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             62  35  67  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  71  37  74  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  35  75  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  46  75  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               72  41  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            75  42  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              66  42  70  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  73  43  77  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            72  41  76  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  44  74  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           69  34  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   70  38  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                70  42  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               70  42  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  36  61  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               56  35  61  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  37  60  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 61  34  66  36  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               66  36  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  35  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            61  35  67  37  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  65  34  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   69  33  75  39  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              66  31  72  34  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 65  35  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  40  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 71  38  75  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  39  75  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              67  37  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ401>410.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171015
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL SEE A COOL BUT
SUNNY DAY TODAY. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. FOR THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE CLOUDS RETURN
TO THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AND USHERED IN COOLER
AIR TO THE REGION. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPS THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER AIR
TO THE REGION CONTINUES TO SIT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST. USUALLY WITH THE LOW SO NEAR
BY WE MIGHT SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT ALONG WITH
THE COOLER AIR THE LOW HELPED BRING IN SOME VERY DRY AIR. DEW
POINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ARE NEAR ZERO THIS MORNING. IT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH RAIN DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUCH A DRY
ENVIRONMENT.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT AND THAT WILL ALLOW SOME
WARMER WESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS BACK TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT EXITS THE REGION. FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE MOIST AIR
TO OUR EAST AND THE DRY WESTERLY WINDS. THE DRY LINE WILL TRY ITS
BEST TO BACK INTO THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS HAD THE
DRY LINE BACKING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE CURRENT RUN HAS THE WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING THE
DRY LINE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE DRY LINE CAN BE
THE INITIATOR OF THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH WHAT
FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH. FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT MENTIONABLE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK ALL THE EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
WE WILL SEE A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RIGHT NOW MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...SO FOR NOW THE EXTENDED FORECAST KEEPS US
MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z-18/12
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME
TO TIME BUT CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY BE UNLIMITED TODAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON THEY WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE
BREEZY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY.
WE WILL SEE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW MIN RH`S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE
WILL ALSO SEE MOISTURE INCREASING. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ON A COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  46  76  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  41  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  39  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  40  70  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  34  53  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  37  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             62  35  67  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  71  37  74  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  35  75  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  46  75  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               72  41  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            75  42  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              66  42  70  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  73  43  77  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            72  41  76  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  44  74  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           69  34  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   70  38  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                70  42  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               70  42  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  36  61  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               56  35  61  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  37  60  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 61  34  66  36  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               66  36  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  35  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            61  35  67  37  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  65  34  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   69  33  75  39  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              66  31  72  34  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 65  35  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  40  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 71  38  75  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  39  75  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              67  37  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ401>410.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171015
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL SEE A COOL BUT
SUNNY DAY TODAY. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. FOR THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE CLOUDS RETURN
TO THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AND USHERED IN COOLER
AIR TO THE REGION. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPS THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER AIR
TO THE REGION CONTINUES TO SIT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST. USUALLY WITH THE LOW SO NEAR
BY WE MIGHT SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT ALONG WITH
THE COOLER AIR THE LOW HELPED BRING IN SOME VERY DRY AIR. DEW
POINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ARE NEAR ZERO THIS MORNING. IT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH RAIN DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUCH A DRY
ENVIRONMENT.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT AND THAT WILL ALLOW SOME
WARMER WESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS BACK TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT EXITS THE REGION. FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE MOIST AIR
TO OUR EAST AND THE DRY WESTERLY WINDS. THE DRY LINE WILL TRY ITS
BEST TO BACK INTO THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS HAD THE
DRY LINE BACKING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE CURRENT RUN HAS THE WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING THE
DRY LINE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE DRY LINE CAN BE
THE INITIATOR OF THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH WHAT
FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH. FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT MENTIONABLE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK ALL THE EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
WE WILL SEE A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RIGHT NOW MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...SO FOR NOW THE EXTENDED FORECAST KEEPS US
MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z-18/12
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME
TO TIME BUT CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY BE UNLIMITED TODAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON THEY WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE
BREEZY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY.
WE WILL SEE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW MIN RH`S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE
WILL ALSO SEE MOISTURE INCREASING. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ON A COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  46  76  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  41  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  39  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  40  70  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  34  53  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  37  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             62  35  67  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  71  37  74  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  35  75  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  46  75  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               72  41  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            75  42  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              66  42  70  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  73  43  77  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            72  41  76  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  44  74  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           69  34  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   70  38  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                70  42  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               70  42  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  36  61  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               56  35  61  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  37  60  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 61  34  66  36  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               66  36  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  35  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            61  35  67  37  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  65  34  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   69  33  75  39  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              66  31  72  34  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 65  35  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  40  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 71  38  75  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  39  75  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              67  37  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ401>410.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162212 CCA
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOWERING WIND SPEEDS AND DROPPING NIGHT TIME LOW TEMPERATURES.  A
FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE OVER NIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
DRY AND WARMER WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH THAT GENERATED
THIS AFTERNOONS STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEMS
WILL LEAVE IN THEIR WAKE A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS. THE
COLD FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS...RADIATIVE
COOLING AFFECTS AND LOW WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP NIGHT TIME LOW
TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SO HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL
AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO KEEP WEEKEND
AFTERNOONS BREEZY. MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK ZONAL FLOW WILL
DOMINATE BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRY TO BRING MOISTURE TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
IN THE FORM OF THE DRY LINE...BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR THE MOISTURE TO PUSH BACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
THE ZONAL FLOW WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
NEXT WEEK. DURING THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH BRINGING WITH IT WHAT COULD BE OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z-18/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW100-120. W WINDS OF 20-25G35KTS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15KTS
AND SHIFT TO THE NW BY 06Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 18Z TO
15-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL START
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT TAP ANY
MOISTURE...SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITICAL SPEEDS WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE NORM
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 45  72  46  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           45  70  41  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              33  70  39  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  68  40  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              27  48  34  53  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   28  68  37  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             26  62  35  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  27  71  37  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               27  68  35  75  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      45  72  46  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               44  72  41  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            44  75  42  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              45  66  42  70  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  45  73  43  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            42  72  41  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          43  69  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           34  69  34  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   30  70  38  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                35  70  42  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               42  70  42  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  57  36  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               32  56  35  61  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  56  37  60  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 25  61  34  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               26  66  36  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               32  69  35  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            24  61  35  67  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  65  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  69  33  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              23  66  31  72  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 26  65  35  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  32  71  40  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 30  71  38  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          31  71  39  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  67  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ111>113.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ404>407-409>417.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ401>410.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

PAZOS/GRZYWACZ










000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162212 CCA
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOWERING WIND SPEEDS AND DROPPING NIGHT TIME LOW TEMPERATURES.  A
FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE OVER NIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
DRY AND WARMER WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH THAT GENERATED
THIS AFTERNOONS STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEMS
WILL LEAVE IN THEIR WAKE A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS. THE
COLD FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS...RADIATIVE
COOLING AFFECTS AND LOW WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP NIGHT TIME LOW
TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SO HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL
AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO KEEP WEEKEND
AFTERNOONS BREEZY. MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK ZONAL FLOW WILL
DOMINATE BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRY TO BRING MOISTURE TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
IN THE FORM OF THE DRY LINE...BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR THE MOISTURE TO PUSH BACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
THE ZONAL FLOW WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
NEXT WEEK. DURING THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH BRINGING WITH IT WHAT COULD BE OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z-18/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW100-120. W WINDS OF 20-25G35KTS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15KTS
AND SHIFT TO THE NW BY 06Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 18Z TO
15-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL START
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT TAP ANY
MOISTURE...SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITICAL SPEEDS WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE NORM
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 45  72  46  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           45  70  41  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              33  70  39  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  68  40  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              27  48  34  53  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   28  68  37  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             26  62  35  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  27  71  37  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               27  68  35  75  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      45  72  46  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               44  72  41  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            44  75  42  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              45  66  42  70  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  45  73  43  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            42  72  41  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          43  69  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           34  69  34  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   30  70  38  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                35  70  42  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               42  70  42  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  57  36  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               32  56  35  61  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  56  37  60  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 25  61  34  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               26  66  36  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               32  69  35  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            24  61  35  67  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  65  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  69  33  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              23  66  31  72  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 26  65  35  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  32  71  40  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 30  71  38  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          31  71  39  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  67  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ111>113.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ404>407-409>417.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ401>410.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

PAZOS/GRZYWACZ











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