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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161104
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
504 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE BORDERLAND TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY. GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME LOWLAND AREAS EAST OF EL
PASO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL SLIDE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER OVER UT/CO (THOUGH ILL-DEFINED) WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD. INCREASING WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A LEE SIDE LOW...BUT WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THE LEE SIDE LOW WILL TEND TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR A WIND DIRECTION IN
THE 260-280 RANGE WHICH SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS NOT PROVEN
EFFECTIVE FOR DUST TRANSPORT. KEPT PATCHY DUST IN THE FORECAST FOR
AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ALSO FOR
HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA DUST WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO END UP WITH A DUE-WEST WIND.

MOS GUIDANCE WINDS SEEM A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE WINDS ALOFT MOST OF THE DAY (20-25KT IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER). WINDS ALOFT DO CRANK-UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES BUT THE MAIN BELT OF STRONGEST WINDS
(45-50KT AT 800MB) DEVELOPS SOUTH OF EL PASO AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
IS SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY DAWN. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
WINDS HANGING ON ALONG EAST-FACING SLOPES IN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT
PLACES LIKE NORTHEAST EL PASO SHOULD ESCAPE ANY REALLY STRONG
OVERNIGHT GUSTS.

SO OVERALL WHILE IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA... BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SEEP IN BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS/MIDWEST... THE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ACTUALLY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE...
LONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. 40S DEWPOINTS
WILL SNEAK UP TO THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS WESTWARD.

MEANWHILE...A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SW TO NE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING A
TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRYLINE MIX OUT? RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS IT WILL MIX OUT TO EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO-
GUADALUPE-DELAWARE MOUNTAINS...BUT MARGINAL UPPER 30S DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. SO THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE TRANSPECOS REGION... BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
HANG BACK OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GILA REGION AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE AS WELL.

THE WATERS GET MUDDIER ON SATURDAY AS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
TO OUR EAST IS LIKELY TO PUSH MOIST OUTFLOW BACK INTO OUR AREA.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY BUT ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK PVA AS THE SYSTEM ITSELF
WILL BE WEAKENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY AREA-WIDE BUT CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE IS
PRETTY LOW.

QUIETER AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH MAY
APPROACH THE AREA IN THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME...MOST LIKELY BEING A
WIND RATHER THAN PRECIP EVENT FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING IN THE 18 TO 22
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF AREA MOUNTAIN
RANGES. AN AWW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR KELP LATER TODAY. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...
BUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL MAINLY STAY
SOUTH OF ELP GIVEN A DUE-WEST WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORS WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL...
RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS BY MID-AFTERNOON. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY... AND THIS WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN SOME GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO THE AREA FRI-SAT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES...THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING.
QUIET BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUN/MON...WITH MORE WIND
LIKELY IN THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  56  79  58  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           82  48  78  48  78 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              80  51  78  53  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              78  48  75  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  35  53  35  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  51  77  52  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             72  44  73  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  80  43  80  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  46  80  50  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      81  55  78  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               81  44  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            86  52  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              75  47  73  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  83  52  81  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            81  51  79  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  57  77  60  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           80  41  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   80  46  78  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                79  52  79  55  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               82  47  78  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  40  62  38  64 /   0   0   0   0  20
MESCALERO               67  36  64  36  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
TIMBERON                66  36  64  35  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 73  43  72  47  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               76  49  75  50  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               77  46  75  48  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  39  72  42  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  74  44  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   79  41  80  46  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              75  31  77  35  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 74  45  74  48  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  81  49  81  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 80  45  79  46  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  50  81  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              77  45  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>112.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINDY...WARMER AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE GENERATES A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF
WARM DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ARE BRINGING DRY
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BUT
SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SUSTAINING TRANSPORT OF
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER
WAVE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE LEE SURFACE CYCLONE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. CONSEQUENTLY LOW AND MID LEVEL
WESTERLY GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION THE INFLOW OF WARM
DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RAISE AFTERNOON MIXING
HEIGHTS TO 550 MB RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. AT
MOMENT WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER
TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES AT MOST AS AIR MASS
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

CLOSED UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERLY BRANCH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE CWA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
WHILE DPVA/DYNAMIC LIFT ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM
.7 INCH IN THE WEST TO AN INCH IN THE EAST. LITTLE RAINFALL
FORECASTED ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER LIFT. HOWEVER WILL FORECAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY AS MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES
WHERE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 50 KT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR
FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND EVEN MID LEVEL ROTATION SO ANY STORMS
MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 7000 FEET AGL ALSO INDICATE
THREAT OF HAIL DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

AFTER UPPER WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND IT WILL PUSH WARM DRY AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS GFS MOVES A VERY
DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WHILE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL OUTLOOK WARM DRY WEATHER EXTENDED PERIODS
UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/00Z-17/00Z...
P6SM FEW150-200 FEW-SCT250 THRU PD. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10KTS
THROUGH 12Z THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO
15-25G30-35KTS AROUND 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
THEM TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S CREATING EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL TAP SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 52  84  56  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           42  82  48  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  80  51  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              43  79  48  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              32  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  79  51  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             39  72  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  39  81  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               42  80  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  82  55  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  81  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            47  88  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              46  74  47  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  47  84  52  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            47  82  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          51  80  57  77  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           37  79  41  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   40  79  46  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  80  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               43  82  47  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  66  40  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               34  68  36  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  66  36  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  72  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  75  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  77  46  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  70  39  72  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  38  74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   36  79  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              28  75  31  76  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 40  73  45  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  82  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 44  80  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  82  50  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  77  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ110>112.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINDY...WARMER AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE GENERATES A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF
WARM DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRY
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BUT
SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SUSTAINING TRANSPORT OF
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
UPPER WAVE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE LEE SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. CONSEQUENTLY LOW AND MID
LEVEL WESTERLY GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION THE INFLOW
OF WARM DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 550 MB RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS BY MID
AFTERNOON. AT MOMENT WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.
EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
DEGREES AT MOST AS AIR MASS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

CLOSED UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERLY BRANCH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE CWA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
WHILE DPVA/DYNAMIC LIFT ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM
.7 INCH IN THE WEST TO AN INCH IN THE EAST. LITTLE RAINFALL
FORECASTED ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER LIFT. HOWEVER WILL FORECAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY AS MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES
WHERE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 50 KT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR
FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND EVEN MID LEVEL ROTATION SO ANY STORMS
MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 7000 FEET AGL ALSO INDICATE
THREAT OF HAIL DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

AFTER UPPER WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND IT WILL PUSH WARM DRY AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS GFS MOVES A VERY
DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WHILE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL OUTLOOK WARM DRY WEATHER EXTENDED PERIODS
SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 52  84  56  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           42  82  48  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  80  51  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              43  79  48  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              32  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  79  51  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             39  72  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  39  81  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               42  80  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  82  55  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  81  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            47  88  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              46  74  47  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  47  84  52  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            47  82  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          51  80  57  77  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           37  79  41  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   40  79  46  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  80  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               43  82  47  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  66  40  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               34  68  36  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  66  36  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  72  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  75  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  77  46  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  70  39  72  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  38  74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   36  79  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              28  75  31  76  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 40  73  45  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  82  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 44  80  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  82  50  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  77  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ110>112.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 151005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE BORDER AS WE`LL
REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN AN UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A WINDY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME BLOWING DUST
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLE
MOVING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH
THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL ALLOW SURFACE
MOISTURE TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THEN ON FRIDAY AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD US AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS CYCLE ARE 1) STRENGTH OF WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...2) TIMING/COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN MEXICAN TROUGH FOR FRIDAY.

REGARDING WEDNESDAY`S WINDS - SURFACE SUPPORT APPEARS LESS FAVORABLE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH ONLY A 4 MB GRADIENT ACROSS SRN NM AT 00Z THU.
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE LIKELY TO HAVE THE STRONGER WINDS BUT
SEE THAT AREA AS BEING BORDERLINE FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT BEST.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING DUST AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM SOUTHEAST LUNA COUNTY EASTWARD TO
SOUTHWEST HUDSPETH COUNTY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 6 MILES BUT MAY BE LOCALLY 1 MILE NEAR PLOWED FIELDS AND
CONSTRUCTION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ABOUT HALF WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY BUT ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO SWING
WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA.

GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY ARE IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BOTH CARRY
PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING EXTENDING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. SUSPECT COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES EAST FOR SATURDAY. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO CAPE AND LIS AROUND 0. SO DESPITE DECENT
VERTICAL SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE STORMS WILL BE STRONG. PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS INCREASE TO 0.75-1.00 INCH SO SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT I EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNT FOR THE PERIOD
TO BE 0.25 INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
ECMWF WITH A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SMEAR PRECIP INTO NRN
NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT I`M NOT BUYING PRECIP THIS FAR SOUTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT GFS
HAS A MOIST E TO SE FLOW AND SHOWS THE RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHILE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 151200Z-161200Z
VFR CONDS THRU THE PD W WNDS MAINLY 140-180 DEG AT 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN BCMG L/V OVNGT. SKC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY 2 PM TO
9 PM MDT...

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER. THEN MUCH WARMER AND WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO PASSING OUR REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

GOOD VENTILATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EXCELLENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX OF 3 TO 5 TODAY AND 5 TO 6 TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  53  84  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  43  82  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  46  80  51  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              70  44  79  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  33  57  35  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  47  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             67  40  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  72  40  81  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               73  43  80  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  52  82  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               70  40  81  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            76  48  88  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              66  47  74  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  73  48  84  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            71  48  82  51  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  52  80  57  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           71  38  79  41  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   70  41  79  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                71  51  80  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               73  44  82  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 58  37  66  40  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               59  35  68  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                57  33  66  36  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 67  42  72  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               67  47  75  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  44  77  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            66  35  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  68  39  74  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   75  37  79  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              72  29  75  31  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 66  41  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  76  49  82  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 73  45  80  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          77  49  82  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              75  45  77  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

02/02







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 142001
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER IT WILL BECOME WINDY ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PRODUCE SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO PUSH MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ACCORDINGLY HAVE ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR MOST OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY. HOWEVER ALSO EXPECT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER ISOLATED PORTIONS OF THE LOWLAND ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LEE
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. GRADIENTS WILL
THEREFORE STRENGTHEN AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ADVECTING WARMER DRY AIR MASS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 600 MB BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS PRODUCING
WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS ON
WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO BLOWING DUST IS
ALSO EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS OCCURRING ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECASTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY POSSIBLY LOWERING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERLY BRANCH
MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO WITH BACKING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT ADVECTING MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA. THIS RESULTS IN PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING TO AROUND
.5 TO .75 INCH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY
BECOME VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 40 KT MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STORM INTENSIFICATION SO
ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL. CONVERSELY THOUGH WITH CAPES EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND
THE TROUGH RESULTING IN WARM DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/00Z-16/00Z...
P6SM SKC THRU 18Z...THEN SCT-BKN200-250. E TO SE WINDS 5-15KTS THRU
18Z THEN BECMG SOUTHERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY 2 PM TO
9 PM MDT...

THE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
WINDS START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TUESDAY THEN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S BY WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE CREATING EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM

&&

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  72  51  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           33  70  43  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  71  45  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              35  70  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              25  49  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  71  44  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  67  41  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  38  71  40  80  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               41  73  43  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      40  72  51  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               31  68  40  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            38  76  45  88  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              33  65  44  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  74  46  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            37  72  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          38  70  51  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  70  39  79  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   30  70  41  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                43  72  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               32  73  43  81  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  59  36  66  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               26  60  34  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                26  58  33  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 33  66  40  71  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               34  67  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               32  67  44  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            28  66  36  70  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  31  67  39  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   30  74  38  78  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              25  71  28  73  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  66  40  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  76  45  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 37  73  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  77  48  82  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              42  75  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0


&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ417.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ420-421.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 140934
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
334 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
EAST WINDS TODAY...WITH WINDS STRONGER ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACT UPON
INCREASING MOISTURE TOWARD THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHERN NM AT THIS TIME WILL
FACILITATE THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND TRIM ABOUT 15 DEGREES OFF SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STACKING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SACS BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SACS TODAY WHICH SHOULD VERIFY.
CLEARING AND SLACKENING SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES.
IF THE BREEZES BECOME LIGHT...SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN THAT AREA MAY
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH MIGHT BE TOO FAR EAST FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY PER 00Z GFS...BUT IT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A FREEZE WARNING SINCE IT`S BEEN QUITE WARM AND
IT`S LATE IN THE SEASON.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A BIT
FURTHER NORTH. IT LOOKS DRIER BUT STILL BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINDY DAY...POSSIBLY REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER
BACK DOOR FRONT IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THE CURRENT ONE. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND IT
WILL DROP INTO A POSITION TO SEND SOME GULF MOISTURE OUR WAY. ADD
LIFT AND INSTABILITY FROM A PACIFIC TROUGH TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREDECESSORS AND SATURDAY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A VEERING VERTICAL SHEER PROFILE SHOULD BE
IN PLACE AS WELL. INTERESTING. BEHIND THAT SCENARIO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BOUT WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 14/12Z-15/12Z...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD AND TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY
10 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING...GUSTING TO 35 KTS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES.
GENLY LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-120 THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHERN NM AND W TX. WINDS ALL AREAS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION. NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RUN 9-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
PORTION. THIS WILL RAISE MIN RH ROUGHLY 3 TO 8%...WITH HIGHEST
INCREASES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION MIDWEEK...WITH A RETURN TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINING HIGH
OR GREATER FIRE DANGERS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THAT TIME. GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW REMAINS FORECAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...
WHICH MAY INTRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  40  72  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           63  33  70  43  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  36  71  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              64  35  70  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  25  49  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  37  71  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             64  33  67  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  71  38  71  40  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               71  41  73  43  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  40  72  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               59  31  68  40  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            69  38  76  45  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  33  65  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  37  74  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  37  72  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  38  70  51  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  26  70  39  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   65  30  70  41  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                72  43  72  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               67  32  73  43  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 48  24  59  36  66 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               54  26  60  34  66 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                52  26  58  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 62  33  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               63  34  67  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               64  32  67  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            62  28  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  65  31  67  39  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   68  30  74  38  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              67  25  71  28  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 64  33  66  40  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  75  45  76  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 72  37  73  42  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  43  77  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              73  42  75  45  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 132105
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE GRAZES NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND BRINGS GUSTY WEST WINDS BACK TO THE BORDERLAND.
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHILE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
EVEN BRING A RISK OF RAIN TO THE AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY AND SLICES A CORNER OF
NE NEW MEXICO ROUGHLY BETWEEN RATON PASS AND TUCUMCARI. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN PUSH OF THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AT ELP UNTIL THE MID-MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
GUSTY ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS...BUT PERHAPS MORESO
OVERNIGHT AS A REINFORCING EASTERLY PUSH OCCURS AND WINDS SHIFT
FROM NE TO DUE EAST.

FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. SPOTTY
AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS MAY DEVELOP...
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTH OF LAS CRUCES... AND FROM
THE TULAROSA BASIN INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE OTERO MESA.
ELSEWHERE... SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT AND A
STEADY EAST BREEZE WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS TOO MIXED FOR FREEZING
TEMPS IN THE LOWLANDS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DE-AMPLIFY TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL SLIDE INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
AND MODERATELY STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BRING DRY AND BREEZY
WEST WINDS TO THE AREA. 700 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND DEEP
MIXING SUGGEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...PERHAPS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG EAST-FACING SLOPES. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER... ALTHOUGH WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE 250-270 RANGE ARE NOT
QUITE IDEAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A WEAKER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT ANY FARTHER TO THE WEST.
EITHER WAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL SEASONAL)
ARE LIKELY THU-FRI.

OF MORE INTEREST...A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAWING UP SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 14/00Z-15/00Z...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS
WILL SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THROUGH NM AND TX OVERNIGHT. WINDS
250-280/20-25G45 KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL ROUGHLY
03Z AS A RESULT...WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS CONTINUING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
ALONG EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. GENLY LGT OCNL MDT TURBC
SFC-120 THROUGH 18Z...EXCEPT ALG AND ROUGHLY 50-100 SM EAST OF
AREA MTNS WHERE MDT TURBC TO 15 KFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHERN NM AND W TX. 20 FT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM WEST TO
EAST UP TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET ACROSS LOWLAND
EXPANSES. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UP ALONG EAST SLOPES OF AREA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALL AREAS WILL SHIFT
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 9-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS A RESULT. THIS WILL RAISE MIN RH ROUGHLY 3 TO 8%...WITH
HIGHEST INCREASES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON A RETURN TO WINDY CONDITION WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINING HIGH OR GREATER FIRE DANGERS...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT TIME. GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT
RATES ARE IN STORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW REMAINS
FORECAST NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY INTRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN AT THAT TIME. IN SOME AREAS TO CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  67  40  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           46  63  33  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              47  67  36  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              46  64  35  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              27  43  25  49  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  66  37  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             40  64  33  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  42  71  38  71  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               43  71  41  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  67  40  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               42  59  31  68  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            53  69  38  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              44  61  33  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  52  67  37  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            47  68  37  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  65  38  70  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           39  66  26  70  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  65  30  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  72  43  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               46  67  32  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 30  48  24  59  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               32  54  26  60  34 /  10  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                31  52  26  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 37  62  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               45  63  34  67  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               45  64  32  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  62  28  66  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  39  65  31  67  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  68  30  74  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              28  67  25  71  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 41  64  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  75  45  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  72  37  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  76  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  73  42  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 22-TRIPOLI







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