Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240312
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
912 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS THE GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALSO WORKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS EARLIER IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM AS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAD
FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. THE WILL HELP TO FOCUS STRONGER WINDS AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVELS AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTY DOWN SLOPING CONDITIONS
ALONG EAST FACING SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. EVEN THESE AREAS WILL
SEE WIND SPEEDS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR EAST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS OUR SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CARRY A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT....LOWERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY. HIGHS
WARM BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A MAJOR
WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DELIVERS
VERY STRONG WINDS AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS AND OUR REGION IS NO
EXCEPTION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH RELATIVELY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE.
TROUGH AXIS IS NOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EASTERN UTAH. TROUGH
WILL BRING A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM
AND MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES LOWER FOR
THURSDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SFC ANALYZES...NAM 12 AND OTHER HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE LEE SIDE LOW
CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN TX. ATTENDANT TROUGH FOLLOWS CLASSIC
BEHAVIOR...IN TRAILING SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN TX INTO NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA.

AS OF 2 PM...SAN AUGUSTIN PASS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING THE HIGHEST GUST
AT 49 MPH. THEIR HIGHEST HAS BEEN 56 MPH...SET A COUPLE OF TIMES
EARLIER TODAY. BY CONTRAST...INSTRUMENTATION AT SALINAS PEAK HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN REPORTING WINDS BY ROUGHLY A FACTOR OF 15 TO 20
MPH LOWER. GIVEN THAT SALINAS PEAK REPORTING SITE IS 4000 FEET
HIGHER THAN SAN AUGUSTIN PASS...THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOING MORE OF THE WORK IN
GENERATING OUR GUSTY LOWLAND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT BLOWING
DUST IS EVIDENT NOW OVER THE BORDERLAND.

NAM...GFS AND MAJORITY OF SREF ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS POINT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
9 PM. THIS WILL FAVOR TRAPPING OF SOME OF THE MOMENTUM WITH THE
WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KFT AT THAT TIME. RESULT WILL MEAN
GUSTY DOWN SLOPE WINDS TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG AND NEAR EAST FACING
SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR EL PASO...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
AREAS...THIS WILL MEAN A VERY WINDY START TO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT

BROAD RATHER FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TEMPORARILY FOLLOW
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORT BREAK TO OUR WINDY WEATHER. BY FRIDAY
HOWEVER THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE...AS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OVER
OUR THE REGION. FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTER ON HIGH WINDS AREA WIDE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.HIGH WINDS...POSSIBLY THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY...LATEST TRENDS WITH MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS POINT
TO DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. 60 MPH OR MORE ACROSS
RIDGE LINES AND ESPECIALLY EAST ALONG FACING SLOPES. MECHANISMS
INCLUDE DEEP MIX DOWN OF MOMENTUM TO 600-650 MB...WHERE 50 TO 55
MPH WIND ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LARGE
LEE CYCLONE WITH A SFC CENTER BELOW 900 MB OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ATTENDANT PAC COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY SYSTEM AND SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. DEPENDING ON ITS TIMING...LIFT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO MILES WITH
ENHANCEMENT TO THE BLOWING DUST.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE GILA REGION...AS LIFT AND DYNAMIC
COOLING ALOFT ARE GREATEST IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME. UPR LVL TROF
AXIS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AS A CONSEQUENCE...LEE SIDE SURFACE
FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ANOTHER
WINDY DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY.
THE OTHER GOOD IS NEWS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS HAS MEANT A REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST...THIS
DIRECTION DOES NOT FAVOR THE COMMON SOURCE REGIONS FOR OUR HEAVIER
DUST.

TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MORE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...AS OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT
REMAINS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. 00Z-06Z SKC-SCT250
P6SM XCPT OCNLY 2-3SM IN BLDU TIL 04Z. WIND SOUTHWEST TO WEST
15-25KT G35KT TIL O4Z. AFTR 06Z SCT-BKN200-250 P6SM WIND WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15KT.

FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
CAUSE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS...WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING. NOT
AS WIND TOMORROW AND NOT AS WARM...BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HUMIDTY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. DRY AND VERY WARM FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE GILA
REGION. THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY SUNDAY...WITH A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  82  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  80  51  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              52  78  50  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  77  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  54  42  61  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  76  50  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  71  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  78  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  77  49  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  80  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               46  82  48  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  86  56  93  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  74  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  54  81  55  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  80  54  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  78  55  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  78  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  77  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  77  53  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  80  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  66  44  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               37  67  41  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                37  65  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 40  72  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               51  73  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  75  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            37  70  40  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  42  73  47  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  73  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  72  35  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  71  48  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  52  79  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 48  78  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  80  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  76  47  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

27/99







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232117
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR EAST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS OUR SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CARRY A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT....LOWERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY. HIGHS
WARM BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A MAJOR
WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DELIVERS
VERY STRONG WINDS AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS AND OUR REGION IS NO
EXCEPTION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH RELATIVELY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE.
TROUGH AXIS IS NOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EASTERN UTAH. TROUGH
WILL BRING A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM
AND MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES LOWER FOR
THURSDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SFC ANALYZES...NAM 12 AND OTHER HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE LEE SIDE LOW
CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN TX. ATTENDANT TROUGH FOLLOWS CLASSIC
BEHAVIOR...IN TRAILING SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN TX INTO NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA.

AS OF 2 PM...SAN AUGUSTIN PASS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING THE HIGHEST GUST
AT 49 MPH. THEIR HIGHEST HAS BEEN 56 MPH...SET A COUPLE OF TIMES
EARLIER TODAY. BY CONTRAST...INSTRUMENTATION AT SALINAS PEAK HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN REPORTING WINDS BY ROUGHLY A FACTOR OF 15 TO 20
MPH LOWER. GIVEN THAT SALINAS PEAK REPORTING SITE IS 4000 FEET
HIGHER THAN SAN AUGUSTIN PASS...THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOING MORE OF THE WORK IN
GENERATING OUR GUSTY LOWLAND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT BLOWING
DUST IS EVIDENT NOW OVER THE BORDERLAND.

NAM...GFS AND MAJORITY OF SREF ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS POINT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
9 PM. THIS WILL FAVOR TRAPPING OF SOME OF THE MOMENTUM WITH THE
WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KFT AT THAT TIME. RESULT WILL MEAN
GUSTY DOWN SLOPE WINDS TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG AND NEAR EAST FACING
SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR EL PASO...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
AREAS...THIS WILL MEAN A VERY WINDY START TO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT

BROAD RATHER FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TEMPORARILY FOLLOW
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORT BREAK TO OUR WINDY WEATHER. BY FRIDAY
HOWEVER THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE...AS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OVER
OUR THE REGION. FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTER ON HIGH WINDS AREA WIDE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.HIGH WINDS...POSSIBLY THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY...LATEST TRENDS WITH MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS POINT
TO DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. 60 MPH OR MORE ACROSS
RIDGE LINES AND ESPECIALLY EAST ALONG FACING SLOPES. MECHANISMS
INCLUDE DEEP MIX DOWN OF MOMENTUM TO 600-650 MB...WHERE 50 TO 55
MPH WIND ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LARGE
LEE CYCLONE WITH A SFC CENTER BELOW 900 MB OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ATTENDANT PAC COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY SYSTEM AND SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. DEPENDING ON ITS TIMING...LIFT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO MILES WITH
ENHANCEMENT TO THE BLOWING DUST.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE GILA REGION...AS LIFT AND DYNAMIC
COOLING ALOFT ARE GREATEST IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME. UPR LVL TROF
AXIS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AS A CONSEQUENCE...LEE SIDE SURFACE
FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ANOTHER
WINDY DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY.
THE OTHER GOOD IS NEWS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS HAS MEANT A REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST...THIS
DIRECTION DOES NOT FAVOR THE COMMON SOURCE REGIONS FOR OUR HEAVIER
DUST.

TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MORE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...AS OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT
REMAINS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. 00Z-06Z SKC-SCT250
P6SM XCPT OCNLY 2-3SM IN BLDU TIL 04Z. WIND SOUTHWEST TO WEST
15-25KT G35KT TIL O4Z. AFTR 06Z SCT-BKN200-250 P6SM WIND WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
CAUSE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS...WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING. NOT
AS WIND TOMORROW AND NOT AS WARM...BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HUMIDTY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. DRY AND VERY WARM FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE GILA
REGION. THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY SUNDAY...WITH A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  82  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  80  51  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              52  78  50  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  77  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  54  42  61  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  76  50  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  71  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  78  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  77  49  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  80  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               46  82  48  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  86  56  93  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  74  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  54  81  55  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  80  54  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  78  55  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  78  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  77  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  77  53  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  80  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  66  44  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               37  67  41  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                37  65  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 40  72  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               51  73  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  75  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            37  70  40  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  42  73  47  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  73  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  72  35  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  71  48  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  52  79  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 48  78  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  80  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  76  47  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ110>113.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

22/21
TRIPOLI/PARK







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230958
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
358 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY BRINGING WINDY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL GENERATE VERY HIGH WINDS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING TYPICAL SPRING TIME
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS. THE FIRST
EPISODE WILL BE TODAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INDUCING LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTING WARM DRY AIR INTO THEW CWA. THIS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DRY SURFACE TO
600 MB LAPSE RATES WITH THESE FACTORS INDUCING WINDY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST AREAS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION LOWERING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF WEST COAST TROUGH SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

POSSIBLE MAJOR WIND EVENT COULD EVOLVE ON SATURDAY. VERY DEEP
500 MB UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO WITH 70
TO 80 KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
BY EARLY EVENING. ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL GENERATE DEEP LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. GRADIENTS CONSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
WARM DRY NATURE OF AIR MASS RESULTING IN MIXING HEIGHTS TO 600 MB
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS VERY WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH WIND
SPEEDS LIKELY EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS ALL LOCATIONS AND EVEN
ATTAINING WARNING LEVELS OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LOWERING TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EXIST
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA BEING LOCATED BETWEEN DEEP TROUGH
TO THE EAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST. RESULTANT FLOW
WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT WARM DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH NO
CEILINGS EXPECTED BELOW 12,000 FEET AGL. HOWEVER AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z
RESULTING WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 KT AND ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION EXPECT MODERATE OR GREATER TURBULENCE
BELOW 10,000 FEET AGL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARM DRY
AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 5
TO 10 PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MEANWHILE BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS FORECASTED FOR THURSDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO
NEAR BREEZY ON FRIDAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
VERY HIGH WINDS ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS
AGAIN. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 86  60  82  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           84  53  80  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              84  52  78  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              83  52  77  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  36  54  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  53  76  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             75  41  71  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  82  47  78  47  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  48  77  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  58  80  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               81  46  82  48  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            90  56  86  56  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  52  74  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  85  54  81  55  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            85  52  80  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  62  78  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           82  45  78  46  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   81  46  77  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  53  77  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               85  53  80  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 70  42  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               71  37  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                69  37  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 75  40  72  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               78  51  73  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  50  75  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            73  37  70  40  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  77  42  73  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   76  38  73  38  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              74  35  72  35  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  47  71  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  52  79  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  48  78  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  51  80  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              79  46  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TONIGHT TO GIVE US A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. ON WEDNESDAY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP GIVE US SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS NICE
WITH SUN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIR AT
THE SURFACE IS RELATIVELY DRY SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A
STORM FORMED. IF ONE DOES GET GOING WE DO HAVE ENOUGH SHEER AND
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME
HAIL OR MORE LIKELY SOME STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. BY LATE
EVENING THE DRY AIR FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MOVED IN ENDING ANY
FURTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ON WEDNESDAY THE FIRST OF
TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH WINDS MIX DOWN OF STRONG WINDS TO GIVE US
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO I`VE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL GIVE US NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A NICE END TO THE WEEK.

THEN ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING WELL TIMED
TO BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GIVE US
SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING LIKE AT LEAST
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS.
RIGHT NOW SATURDAY IS NOT LOOKING LIKE A VERY GOOD DAY TO BE
OUTSIDE. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WE WILL SEE A DRY BUT COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE AN
EXTENDED COOL PERIOD WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A LARGE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE EXTENDED GFS HAS EL PASO IN THE MID 70`S
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
BEARISH ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60`S.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z...
SLGT RISK ISOLD CLD BLDUPS/CB/TSTM UNTIL 03Z MAINLY VCNTY MTNS N
SVC-ALM LINE (VRB30G40KT 6SM -TSRA BLDU BKN070CB). OTHERWISE WINDS
SSE-SSW 10G20KT SCT070 SCT120 SCT-BKN250. AFT 18Z WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR AIR TROUGH WINDS BECOMING SW 25-35 G 45KT 3-6 SM
BLDU. MDT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLO 15K FT MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THESE STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAIN BUT HAVE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH DRYING AND
WINDY WEATHER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING OF FUELS TO PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. AN EVEN STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
GENERATE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  86  60  82  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           54  84  53  80  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              54  84  52  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              55  83  52  77  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  59  36  54  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   56  80  53  76  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  75  41  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  51  82  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               53  80  48  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  86  58  80  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               50  81  46  82  48 /  20   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  90  56  86  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  79  52  74  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  59  85  54  81  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  85  52  80  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  82  62  78  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  82  45  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   49  81  46  77  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                60  81  53  77  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               54  85  53  80  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  70  42  66  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  71  37  67  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  69  37  65  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  75  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  78  51  73  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               54  78  50  75  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  73  37  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  49  77  42  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   40  76  38  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              37  74  35  72  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 51  76  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  56  82  52  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  81  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  83  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  79  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/NOVLAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220938
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
338 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOLLOWED BY WARM DRY
AND WINDY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SUSTAIN
SEASONABLY WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ADVANCE INTO ARIZONA PLACING THE
CWA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST. RESULTANT CIRCULATION WILL INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT ONLY MODEST
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY AROUND 35 TO 40 EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE PLUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH AXIS WILL THEREFORE GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. HOWEVER CAPES WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. GIVEN THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL BE AT LEAST 40 DEGREES F EXPECT LITTLE RAINFALL BUT A FEW
DOWNBURSTS OF OF 50 MPH OR GREATER.

UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY
INDUCING RATHER STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS ACCORDINGLY INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINING INFLOW OF WARM DRY AIR MASS. THIS COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS TO 600 MB CAUSING WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AND CAUSE SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
VERY WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES AT
MOST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. BUT MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY GENERATING ANOTHER DEEP
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. STRENGTHENING GRADIENTS WILL
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDING 60 KT
WINDS AT 500 MB. AT MOMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO
EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REQUIRING HIGH
WIND WARNINGS. TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALSO
SUGGEST THAT DESPITE STRONG DYNAMICS/UPWARD MOTION THERE WILL BE
TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PRECIP.

UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WITH LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 06Z WITH A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND BLOWING DUST. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS AROUND 5000
FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOSTLY AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 10 AND 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALLS BUT
MAY GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 MPH. THUS STORMS WITH DRY
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CAUSE
DRY WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. AN EVEN STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  63  87  60  84 /   0  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           87  54  85  53  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              87  54  85  52  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              84  55  84  52  79 /   0  20   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  42  60  36  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   85  56  81  53  78 /   0  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             80  50  76  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  88  51  83  47  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               87  53  81  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      88  63  87  58  82 /   0  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               83  50  82  46  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            92  61  91  56  88 /  10  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              81  53  80  52  76 /   0  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  89  59  86  54  83 /   0  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            88  58  86  52  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  62  83  62  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           86  46  83  45  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
HATCH                   87  49  82  46  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                86  60  82  53  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               87  54  86  53  82 /   0  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 71  46  71  42  68 /  20  20   0   0   0
MESCALERO               73  42  72  37  69 /  20  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                71  42  70  37  67 /  10  20   0   0   0
WINSTON                 79  44  76  40  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               82  56  79  51  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               83  54  79  50  77 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            78  44  74  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  81  49  78  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   83  40  77  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              82  37  75  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 80  51  77  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  88  56  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 87  53  82  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          90  56  84  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              85  50  80  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212001
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL GIVE US STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. THE END
OF THE WEEK LOOKS NICE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND. THEN
FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM GIVE US ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINDY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS
HAVE POPPED UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. I`M NOT EXPECTING MUCH (IF ANY
RAIN) IN THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT...WE JUST WON`T SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...BUT THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT TOMORROW. ON
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALOFT WE WILL SEE A STORM SYSTEM
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR
WEST...BUT IT MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO HELP KICK OFF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WE WILL HAVE SOME
TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
SPEED SHEER...COMBINE THOSE FACT WITH THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT (AN INDICATION THAT HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO REACH THE
GROUND) AND WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. WE WILL HAVE PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A DECENT LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW WE ARE THINKING
THE WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF LATER MODELS RUNS NUDGE THE WINDS UP JUST A
LITTLE. SO FOR NOW NO ADVISORY...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP US SUNNY...WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACH THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...THIS FAR OUT...THERE IS A BIT OF A
SPLIT IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF HAS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH JUST KIND OF SETTLE OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN ENERGY FOR THE SYSTEM IS NORTH OF THE AREA SO WHAT WE WOULD
SEE WOULD BE A WINDY OR VERY WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY AND MAYBE
SUNDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD A DEEPER AND A CLOSED OFF
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CURRENT RUN OF THE MODEL HAS
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE CURRENT GFS IS LESS ABOUT
PRECIPITATION AND MORE ABOUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
FOR NOW I`VE DOWN PLAYED THE POPS AND HAVE ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND
WINDS TO THE WEEKENDS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE GT PLAINS WILL
PUSH INTO THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT AND PROVIDE LIGHT EASTERLY SFC
WINDS THRU TUES. ENUF RESIDUAL MSTR REMAINS FOR SOME ISOLD
BLDUPS/CB/TS MAINLY OVR MTNS N OF SVC-ALM LINE WED AND GNLY E OF THE
RIO GRANDE TUESDAY AFTN. WINDS TIL 03Z BCMG SSE 5-10KTS THEN NE 10KT
BCMG SE 150/10KT AFT 15Z. SKY GNLY FEW-SCT050-100. LCL 4SM TSRA
BKN050 VRB WNDS 30G40KT / CB TOPS TO 300 FM 18Z-06Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD STILL CREATE A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM TODAY...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL PREVAIL. SOME MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY AND WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ESPECIALLY OVER
HUDSPETH AND FAR EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
MODERATE TO STRONG TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND BRING
DRIER WEST FLOW  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WINDY AND DUSTY DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY BELOW 7500 FEET...HOWEVER IF
ENUF WETTING RAIN COVERAGE FROM TSTMS TUE OCCURS THEN FIRE DANGER
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENUF FOR RED FLAGS BUT DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE THE
CASE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  89  63  87  60 /   0   0  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  87  54  85  53 /   0  10  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              52  87  54  85  52 /   0   0  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  84  55  84  52 /   0   0  20   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  63  42  60  36 /  10  10  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  85  56  81  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             48  80  50  76  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  49  88  51  83  47 /   0   0  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               50  87  53  81  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      60  88  63  87  58 /   0   0  10   0   0
DELL CITY               45  83  50  82  46 /   0  10  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  92  61  91  56 /   0  10  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  81  53  80  52 /   0  10  20   0   0
FABENS                  53  89  59  86  54 /   0   0  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  88  58  86  52 /   0   0  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  85  62  83  62 /   0   0  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           41  86  46  83  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
HATCH                   44  87  49  82  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                56  86  60  82  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  87  54  86  53 /   0   0  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 41  71  46  71  42 /  20  20  20   0   0
MESCALERO               36  73  42  72  37 /  10  10  20   0   0
TIMBERON                37  71  42  70  37 /  10  10  20   0   0
WINSTON                 46  79  44  76  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  82  56  79  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  83  54  79  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  78  44  74  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  49  81  49  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   40  83  40  77  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              37  82  37  75  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 51  80  51  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  51  88  56  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 49  87  53  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  90  56  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  85  50  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

BRICE/NOVLAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211035
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
434 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE NEW WEEK
AHEAD. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD STILL
CREATE A MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM TODAY...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE. A MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WITH AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOW LEVELS...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO WEST TEXAS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER HUDSPETH
AND FAR EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DRIER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
WINDY AND DUSTY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH YET MORE WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE AREA. MODELS AND WV IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW DIRTY
FLOW WITHIN THIS RIDGE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES. ALONG WITH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY. WV IMAGERY DOES
SHOW ONE VORT CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. NAM PICK THIS
UP...MOVING THE CENTER EAST TO THE BIG BEND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE CWA. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
MODEST MUCAPE AND LI VALUES COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
PW`S STILL REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF INCH BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY. RELATIVELY LOW WBZ CONTINUE (11K FT MSL) SO
SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. LOWER MOISTURE VALUES
INDICATE LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL BUT STEERING FLOW HAS BECOME
VERY WEAK...HENCE A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL TURN SOUTHEAST
AS LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE EAST HALF
OF THE CWA...THOUGH MODELS NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE ZONE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA AS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WEST
MEETS THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE EAST TO FORM A SECONDARY
DRYLINE. LIMITED POPS TO EAST OF EL PASO BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS DEMING.

REMAINDER OF WEEK LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK TO MORE TYPICAL APRIL WEATHER.
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...
INDUCING GOOD LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS LIKELY JUST INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. SYSTEM LIKELY TOO FAR
NORTH FOR PRECIP THOUGH FRONT COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. GFS STILL SHOWING DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING OFF
THE PACIFIC AND DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF TRYING TO SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION AS
LATEST RUN NOW SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE TO FLOW WITH PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH...THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION OF THE GFS.
HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION DAYS 6/7 WITH MORE WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AT SPEEDS
BELOW 12 KTS. A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH FEW-SCT070-080 DEVELOPING BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY
LIMITING MOST RAIN CHANCES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS WHERE SOME WEAK AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP AS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS WITH READINGS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
USHERING IN SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL PUSH TO
ABOUT ABOUT A SILVER CITY TO DEMING LINE BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK
EAST BY WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH.
ONCE AGAIN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM
ALONG A PSEUDO DRY LINE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SWEPT EASTWARD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING WITH
IT STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET ACROSS
MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOME
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MIN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
WITH STRONG WINDS RETURNING ALONG WITH AN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  59  89  63  88 /   0   0   0  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           81  49  87  54  86 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              82  52  87  54  86 /   0   0   0  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  52  84  55  85 /   0   0   0  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  37  63  42  61 /  30  10  10  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  54  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             76  48  80  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  81  49  88  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  50  87  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  60  88  63  88 /   0   0   0  10   0
DELL CITY               79  45  83  50  83 /  10   0  10  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            87  55  92  61  92 /   0   0  10  10   0
LOMA LINDA              77  52  81  53  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
FABENS                  83  53  89  59  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
SANTA TERESA            83  52  88  58  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  58  85  62  84 /   0   0   0  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           82  41  86  46  84 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   81  44  87  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  56  86  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               84  53  87  54  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
MAYHILL                 67  41  71  46  72 /  30  20  20  20   0
MESCALERO               70  36  73  42  73 /  30  10  10  20   0
TIMBERON                68  37  71  42  71 /  20  10  10  20   0
WINSTON                 75  46  79  44  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               78  56  82  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               79  48  83  54  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            74  44  78  44  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  77  49  81  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   79  40  83  40  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              77  37  82  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  51  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  51  88  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  49  87  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  54  90  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              80  49  85  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY










    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities