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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF ALAMOGORDO.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS
SHOWING DPVA OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA WILL GENERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH OVERALL CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THUS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 F
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUSTAINING DYNAMIC LIFTING OVER MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH .75 TO 1
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT
6 KM AGL. THUS THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND
BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMATION
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. AT MOMENT BELIEVE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIR
MASS DRY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DRY OUTLOOK LATER
PERIODS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME AT LEAST BREEZY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND
5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. THUS THE
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  56  73  55  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           70  50  70  50  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  51  71  52  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              73  51  71  52  73 /  60  40  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  36  55  38  55 /  60  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  71  52  71 /  50  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             67  47  66  48  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  73  51  72  52  74 /  50  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               74  52  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  56  72  56  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
DELL CITY               72  49  72  48  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            74  54  74  53  78 /  70  50  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              68  50  67  51  69 /  60  50  30  40  30
FABENS                  74  52  75  52  78 /  60  40  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            73  53  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  54  71  55  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           72  47  71  47  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
HATCH                   73  49  71  49  72 /  60  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                73  53  72  54  75 /  50  20  30  30  20
OROGRANDE               73  52  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
MAYHILL                 62  42  60  43  63 /  60  50  40  40  40
MESCALERO               63  39  61  40  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
TIMBERON                62  39  60  41  62 /  60  50  40  40  40
WINSTON                 66  45  65  46  67 /  70  30  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               68  49  67  50  69 /  60  20  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               73  48  71  48  71 /  50  30  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            66  44  65  45  68 /  60  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  68  48  68  49  71 /  50  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   72  46  73  46  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              70  42  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  49  67  50  70 /  60  20  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  75  51  76  51  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 74  50  72  49  76 /  40  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  49  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              75  49  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF ALAMOGORDO.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS
SHOWING DPVA OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA WILL GENERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH OVERALL CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THUS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 F
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUSTAINING DYNAMIC LIFTING OVER MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH .75 TO 1
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT
6 KM AGL. THUS THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND
BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMATION
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. AT MOMENT BELIEVE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIR
MASS DRY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DRY OUTLOOK LATER
PERIODS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME AT LEAST BREEZY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND
5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. THUS THE
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  56  73  55  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           70  50  70  50  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  51  71  52  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              73  51  71  52  73 /  60  40  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  36  55  38  55 /  60  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  71  52  71 /  50  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             67  47  66  48  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  73  51  72  52  74 /  50  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               74  52  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  56  72  56  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
DELL CITY               72  49  72  48  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            74  54  74  53  78 /  70  50  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              68  50  67  51  69 /  60  50  30  40  30
FABENS                  74  52  75  52  78 /  60  40  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            73  53  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  54  71  55  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           72  47  71  47  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
HATCH                   73  49  71  49  72 /  60  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                73  53  72  54  75 /  50  20  30  30  20
OROGRANDE               73  52  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
MAYHILL                 62  42  60  43  63 /  60  50  40  40  40
MESCALERO               63  39  61  40  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
TIMBERON                62  39  60  41  62 /  60  50  40  40  40
WINSTON                 66  45  65  46  67 /  70  30  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               68  49  67  50  69 /  60  20  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               73  48  71  48  71 /  50  30  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            66  44  65  45  68 /  60  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  68  48  68  49  71 /  50  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   72  46  73  46  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              70  42  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  49  67  50  70 /  60  20  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  75  51  76  51  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 74  50  72  49  76 /  40  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  49  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              75  49  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192055
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
255 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. STORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A QUARTER OF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR YUMA ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY. MOISTURE PULLED UP AHEAD
OF THE STORM WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT AND FORCING FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER BAND FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ROTATE UP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE DOWN
TO ABOUT 9000 FEET...SO STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING A LOT OF HAIL.
THE SHEAR PROFILE AND CAPE VALUES INDICATE A MULTI-CELLULAR TYPE
STORM DISTRIBUTION WITH FEW IF ANY SEVERE STORMS ANTICIPATED.
LARGE AMOUNTS OF PEA SIZED TO DIME SIZED HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW SITTING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND COLD CORE DYNAMICS KEEPING THE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH UP
TO ONE AND HALF INCHES FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BY MONDAY EVENING...MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS IT STARTS TO MOVE TO THE
EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE STATE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS USING AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AND
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
BORDERLAND AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRY
AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL FLUSH
OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH
BREEZY BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z - 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT030-040 SCT-BKN060-080 THRU PD WITH POSSIBILITY OF
BKN015-025 ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES INCLUDING KELP AFT 06Z. SCT TO
NMRS 3-5SM TSRAGS BKN020-030 THRU PD AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST
JUST SOUTH OF AZ BORDER.

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA BORDER AND
START TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 40
PERCENT. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DRIER AND WARMER AIR STARTS TO RETURN. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY EAST
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  73  56  73  55 /  70  60  40  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA           54  70  50  70  50 /  40  60  50  40  40
LAS CRUCES              54  72  51  71  52 /  70  60  30  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              50  73  51  71  52 /  50  60  40  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              37  56  36  56  38 /  50  60  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   55  72  52  71  52 /  40  50  20  30  30
SILVER CITY             48  67  47  66  48 /  50  50  20  30  20
DEMING                  53  73  51  72  52 /  70  50  20  30  30
LORDSBURG               51  74  52  74  51 /  50  40  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  74  56  72  56 /  70  60  40  30  40
DELL CITY               50  72  49  72  48 /  40  60  50  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            57  74  54  74  53 /  60  60  50  30  40
LOMA LINDA              52  68  50  67  51 /  70  60  50  30  40
FABENS                  53  74  52  75  52 /  70  60  40  30  40
SANTA TERESA            54  73  53  72  53 /  70  60  40  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  72  54  71  55 /  70  60  40  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           45  72  47  71  47 /  70  60  30  30  40
HATCH                   51  73  49  71  49 /  70  60  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                54  73  53  72  54 /  70  50  20  30  30
OROGRANDE               54  73  52  72  53 /  70  60  40  30  40
MAYHILL                 43  62  42  60  43 /  40  60  50  40  40
MESCALERO               39  63  39  61  40 /  40  60  40  40  40
TIMBERON                39  62  39  60  41 /  60  60  50  40  40
WINSTON                 46  66  45  65  46 /  40  70  30  40  40
HILLSBORO               49  68  49  67  50 /  50  60  20  30  30
SPACEPORT               47  73  48  71  48 /  60  50  30  20  40
LAKE ROBERTS            46  66  44  65  45 /  50  60  30  30  30
HURLEY                  50  68  48  68  49 /  70  50  20  30  20
CLIFF                   47  72  46  73  46 /  40  40  20  30  20
MULE CREEK              40  70  42  70  41 /  40  40  20  30  20
FAYWOOD                 48  68  49  67  50 /  70  50  20  30  30
ANIMAS                  51  75  51  76  51 /  50  40  20  20  20
HACHITA                 49  74  50  72  49 /  60  40  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  76  49  76  49 /  50  40  20  30  20
CLOVERDALE              49  75  49  74  51 /  50  40  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192055
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
255 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. STORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A QUARTER OF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR YUMA ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY. MOISTURE PULLED UP AHEAD
OF THE STORM WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT AND FORCING FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER BAND FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ROTATE UP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE DOWN
TO ABOUT 9000 FEET...SO STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING A LOT OF HAIL.
THE SHEAR PROFILE AND CAPE VALUES INDICATE A MULTI-CELLULAR TYPE
STORM DISTRIBUTION WITH FEW IF ANY SEVERE STORMS ANTICIPATED.
LARGE AMOUNTS OF PEA SIZED TO DIME SIZED HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW SITTING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND COLD CORE DYNAMICS KEEPING THE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH UP
TO ONE AND HALF INCHES FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BY MONDAY EVENING...MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS IT STARTS TO MOVE TO THE
EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE STATE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS USING AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AND
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
BORDERLAND AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRY
AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL FLUSH
OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH
BREEZY BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z - 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT030-040 SCT-BKN060-080 THRU PD WITH POSSIBILITY OF
BKN015-025 ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES INCLUDING KELP AFT 06Z. SCT TO
NMRS 3-5SM TSRAGS BKN020-030 THRU PD AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST
JUST SOUTH OF AZ BORDER.

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA BORDER AND
START TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 40
PERCENT. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DRIER AND WARMER AIR STARTS TO RETURN. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY EAST
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  73  56  73  55 /  70  60  40  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA           54  70  50  70  50 /  40  60  50  40  40
LAS CRUCES              54  72  51  71  52 /  70  60  30  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              50  73  51  71  52 /  50  60  40  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              37  56  36  56  38 /  50  60  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   55  72  52  71  52 /  40  50  20  30  30
SILVER CITY             48  67  47  66  48 /  50  50  20  30  20
DEMING                  53  73  51  72  52 /  70  50  20  30  30
LORDSBURG               51  74  52  74  51 /  50  40  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  74  56  72  56 /  70  60  40  30  40
DELL CITY               50  72  49  72  48 /  40  60  50  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            57  74  54  74  53 /  60  60  50  30  40
LOMA LINDA              52  68  50  67  51 /  70  60  50  30  40
FABENS                  53  74  52  75  52 /  70  60  40  30  40
SANTA TERESA            54  73  53  72  53 /  70  60  40  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  72  54  71  55 /  70  60  40  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           45  72  47  71  47 /  70  60  30  30  40
HATCH                   51  73  49  71  49 /  70  60  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                54  73  53  72  54 /  70  50  20  30  30
OROGRANDE               54  73  52  72  53 /  70  60  40  30  40
MAYHILL                 43  62  42  60  43 /  40  60  50  40  40
MESCALERO               39  63  39  61  40 /  40  60  40  40  40
TIMBERON                39  62  39  60  41 /  60  60  50  40  40
WINSTON                 46  66  45  65  46 /  40  70  30  40  40
HILLSBORO               49  68  49  67  50 /  50  60  20  30  30
SPACEPORT               47  73  48  71  48 /  60  50  30  20  40
LAKE ROBERTS            46  66  44  65  45 /  50  60  30  30  30
HURLEY                  50  68  48  68  49 /  70  50  20  30  20
CLIFF                   47  72  46  73  46 /  40  40  20  30  20
MULE CREEK              40  70  42  70  41 /  40  40  20  30  20
FAYWOOD                 48  68  49  67  50 /  70  50  20  30  30
ANIMAS                  51  75  51  76  51 /  50  40  20  20  20
HACHITA                 49  74  50  72  49 /  60  40  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  76  49  76  49 /  50  40  20  30  20
CLOVERDALE              49  75  49  74  51 /  50  40  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191009
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
409 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERATING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS. HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT AND HAVE ALSO SHOWN
IMPROVED CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW SOLUTIONS SO THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN UPCOMING FORECAST. UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN BAJA VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THE NEXT 2 DAYS
WITH CENTER LOCATED NEAR EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING. DYNAMIC LIFT
WILL THEREFORE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AS MODELS
SHOWING AXIS OF DPVA SPREADING OVER THE CWA. BACKING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MEANWHILE SUSTAIN INFLOW OF RATHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOVE 50 F MOST AREAS AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM .75 TO 1 INCH. THUS
CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE PLUS DYNAMIC
COOLING ALOFT WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AIR MASS SUPPORTING 500 TO
1000 J/KG CAPES.

MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 30 KT WILL EXIST UNDER LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT
AND EVEN WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION
DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS TO AROUND
8000 FEET AGL SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF A FEW STORMS PRODUCING AT
LEAST SMALL HAIL. SO VERY ISOLATED STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LARGER SCALE
DYNAMIC FORCING OVER THE CWA WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONTINUE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAINING AROUND 50. THIS WILL KEEP THREAT OF THUNDER OVER
THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST SUBSIDING FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOLLOWED BY A ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED AREAS IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL..WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SECOND
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AFFECTING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY THUS REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  58  73  57  73 /  30  70  60  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           75  53  70  51  70 /  20  40  60  50  40
LAS CRUCES              76  53  72  52  71 /  30  70  60  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              76  48  73  52  71 /  30  50  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              58  37  55  37  55 /  40  50  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  55  72  53  71 /  40  40  50  20  30
SILVER CITY             70  47  67  48  66 /  60  50  50  20  30
DEMING                  77  51  73  52  72 /  40  70  50  20  30
LORDSBURG               78  50  74  53  74 /  50  50  40  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  59  74  57  72 /  30  70  60  40  30
DELL CITY               76  48  72  50  72 /  20  40  60  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            79  57  74  55  74 /  30  60  60  40  30
LOMA LINDA              71  53  68  51  67 /  30  70  60  40  30
FABENS                  80  53  74  53  75 /  30  70  60  40  30
SANTA TERESA            77  55  73  54  72 /  30  70  60  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          76  55  72  55  71 /  30  70  60  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           75  45  72  48  71 /  30  70  50  30  30
HATCH                   75  51  73  50  71 /  30  70  60  30  30
COLUMBUS                78  54  73  54  72 /  40  70  50  20  30
OROGRANDE               77  54  73  53  72 /  30  70  50  40  30
MAYHILL                 65  42  62  43  60 /  40  40  60  50  40
MESCALERO               65  37  63  40  61 /  40  40  50  40  40
TIMBERON                65  39  62  40  60 /  40  50  60  50  40
WINSTON                 66  47  66  46  65 /  60  40  70  30  40
HILLSBORO               70  48  68  50  67 /  40  50  60  20  30
SPACEPORT               75  46  73  49  71 /  30  50  40  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            69  45  66  45  65 /  60  50  60  30  30
HURLEY                  71  48  68  49  68 /  50  60  50  20  30
CLIFF                   75  46  72  47  73 /  50  40  40  20  30
MULE CREEK              73  38  70  43  70 /  50  40  40  20  30
FAYWOOD                 71  48  68  50  67 /  40  60  50  20  30
ANIMAS                  80  50  77  52  76 /  50  50  40  20  20
HACHITA                 78  49  74  51  72 /  50  60  40  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  47  76  50  76 /  50  50  40  20  30
CLOVERDALE              78  49  75  50  74 /  50  40  40  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191009
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
409 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERATING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS. HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT AND HAVE ALSO SHOWN
IMPROVED CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW SOLUTIONS SO THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN UPCOMING FORECAST. UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN BAJA VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THE NEXT 2 DAYS
WITH CENTER LOCATED NEAR EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING. DYNAMIC LIFT
WILL THEREFORE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AS MODELS
SHOWING AXIS OF DPVA SPREADING OVER THE CWA. BACKING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MEANWHILE SUSTAIN INFLOW OF RATHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOVE 50 F MOST AREAS AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM .75 TO 1 INCH. THUS
CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE PLUS DYNAMIC
COOLING ALOFT WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AIR MASS SUPPORTING 500 TO
1000 J/KG CAPES.

MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 30 KT WILL EXIST UNDER LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT
AND EVEN WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION
DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS TO AROUND
8000 FEET AGL SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF A FEW STORMS PRODUCING AT
LEAST SMALL HAIL. SO VERY ISOLATED STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LARGER SCALE
DYNAMIC FORCING OVER THE CWA WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONTINUE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAINING AROUND 50. THIS WILL KEEP THREAT OF THUNDER OVER
THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST SUBSIDING FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOLLOWED BY A ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED AREAS IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL..WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SECOND
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AFFECTING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY THUS REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  58  73  57  73 /  30  70  60  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           75  53  70  51  70 /  20  40  60  50  40
LAS CRUCES              76  53  72  52  71 /  30  70  60  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              76  48  73  52  71 /  30  50  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              58  37  55  37  55 /  40  50  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  55  72  53  71 /  40  40  50  20  30
SILVER CITY             70  47  67  48  66 /  60  50  50  20  30
DEMING                  77  51  73  52  72 /  40  70  50  20  30
LORDSBURG               78  50  74  53  74 /  50  50  40  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  59  74  57  72 /  30  70  60  40  30
DELL CITY               76  48  72  50  72 /  20  40  60  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            79  57  74  55  74 /  30  60  60  40  30
LOMA LINDA              71  53  68  51  67 /  30  70  60  40  30
FABENS                  80  53  74  53  75 /  30  70  60  40  30
SANTA TERESA            77  55  73  54  72 /  30  70  60  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          76  55  72  55  71 /  30  70  60  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           75  45  72  48  71 /  30  70  50  30  30
HATCH                   75  51  73  50  71 /  30  70  60  30  30
COLUMBUS                78  54  73  54  72 /  40  70  50  20  30
OROGRANDE               77  54  73  53  72 /  30  70  50  40  30
MAYHILL                 65  42  62  43  60 /  40  40  60  50  40
MESCALERO               65  37  63  40  61 /  40  40  50  40  40
TIMBERON                65  39  62  40  60 /  40  50  60  50  40
WINSTON                 66  47  66  46  65 /  60  40  70  30  40
HILLSBORO               70  48  68  50  67 /  40  50  60  20  30
SPACEPORT               75  46  73  49  71 /  30  50  40  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            69  45  66  45  65 /  60  50  60  30  30
HURLEY                  71  48  68  49  68 /  50  60  50  20  30
CLIFF                   75  46  72  47  73 /  50  40  40  20  30
MULE CREEK              73  38  70  43  70 /  50  40  40  20  30
FAYWOOD                 71  48  68  50  67 /  40  60  50  20  30
ANIMAS                  80  50  77  52  76 /  50  50  40  20  20
HACHITA                 78  49  74  51  72 /  50  60  40  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  47  76  50  76 /  50  50  40  20  30
CLOVERDALE              78  49  75  50  74 /  50  40  40  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182100
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
300 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR THE BORDERLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME STORMS WILL
SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH THE JET STREAM IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING THE TRANSITION...TO ONE MORE TYPICAL FOR THE FALL
SEASON. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF THREE DISTURBANCES WHICH BROUGHT
UP TO 0.10 TO 0.20" LIGHT RAIN TO S NM/W TX LAST NIGHT...IS
LIFTING NE OUT OF THE AREA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPIT IN THE JET OFF THE SW US
COAST. THIS BEHAVIOR IN THE UPPER WIND FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUT OFF LOWS AND/OR REX BLOCKS OVER THE WESTERN
U.S.A....WHICH IS MORE COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW EVIDENT OVER SO CAL...WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
ALREADY AN AREA OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
EVIDENT OVER WESTERN AZ. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND LIFT OVER THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON GS EMF NAM AND SERF TRACK THIS LOW OVER
SOUTHERN AZ/NR SONORA. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...A SERIES OF MINOR
SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE OVER OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
LOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP A ROUND
OF MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WILL APPROACH MID DAY SUNDAY. COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LIFT...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT EVERYTHING
THIS IS REASONABLE AND IS IN KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THE NEAR TERM.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT MODEST AMOUNTS OF RELATIVELY COOLER AIR
ALOFT TO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
ROUGHLY 1-2 KFT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONE RESULT WILL BE
THE ACCOMPANIMENT OF SMALL HAIL WITH MORE OF THE STORMS STARTING
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD
VERY WELL SEE ACCUMULATING HAIL MIXED WITH THE RAIN OUT OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DOES NOT
RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGER HAIL...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SHEAR.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE MORE TO THE OVERALL SHEAR THAN CHANGES IN SPEEDS.

ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS / STORMS. ACTIVIY IN GENERAL
SHOULD DRIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FAVORS TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT
TIME. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY REMAIN GENERALLY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...INTO WEST TEXAS. THE LOW SHOULD START TO
WEAKEN EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE COMBINING WITH OUR FINAL
WEATHER MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH.

THE TROUGH WILL ABSORB WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW...WHILE ITS LIFT
PROLONGS ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER US FOR ONE MORE DAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GFS AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A POSITIVELY TILTED
AXIS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT HAVE NUDGED AFTERNOON POP
NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY BUT STILL WITHIN THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. DRIER WEATHER REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR ALL AREAS
STARTING THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...MOUNTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25" ARE EXPECTED. LOWLANDS
COULD SEE RUNNING TOTALS UP TO ONE INCH. THIS GENERALLY AGREES
WITH CONSENSUS AMONG THE 12Z NAM...RUC...GFS AND SREF SOLUTIONS.
PWAT VALUES NEAR OR AT ONE INCH ARE FORECAST MONDAY - WED
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WED...WHILE NIGHT TIME READINGS SHOULD FARE WARMER
THEN NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WEEKS END WITH MORE SUN FORECAST THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z - 20/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 WITH ISOLATED -TSRA THRU 10Z. UPPER LOW MOVING
EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE AZ BORDER WILL APPROACH AREA AND INCREASE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FEW-SCT030-040 SCT-BKN060-080 AND SCT
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH REMAINDER OF PD. STRONGEST STORMS WEST
OF DIVIDE AFT 18Z WHERE 1-3SM TSRA BKN020-030 POSSIBLE. E TO SE
WINDS 5-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE ON THE HORIZON. THE NEXT ONE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW WITH MORE SCATTERED LOWLAND
STORMS AND POSSIBLY NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE GILA REGION. AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BETWEEN SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A DEMING TO TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES
LINE. ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  79  58  74  58 /  20  30  50  50  40
SIERRA BLANCA           51  75  53  71  52 /  10  20  50  50  40
LAS CRUCES              55  76  53  73  53 /  20  30  50  50  40
ALAMOGORDO              49  76  48  74  53 /  20  30  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              36  58  37  56  38 /  20  40  40  50  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   55  74  55  73  54 /  20  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             49  70  47  68  49 /  20  50  50  40  20
DEMING                  56  77  51  74  53 /  20  40  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               54  78  50  75  54 /  20  40  40  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      60  78  59  75  58 /  20  30  50  50  40
DELL CITY               48  76  48  73  51 /  10  20  40  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            56  79  57  75  56 /  10  20  50  50  40
LOMA LINDA              53  71  53  69  52 /  10  30  50  50  50
FABENS                  54  80  53  75  54 /  20  30  50  50  40
SANTA TERESA            56  77  55  74  55 /  20  30  50  50  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  76  55  73  56 /  20  30  50  50  40
JORNADA RANGE           47  75  45  73  49 /  20  30  50  50  30
HATCH                   53  75  51  74  51 /  20  30  50  50  30
COLUMBUS                57  78  54  74  55 /  20  40  50  40  30
OROGRANDE               56  77  54  74  54 /  20  30  40  50  40
MAYHILL                 41  65  42  63  44 /  20  40  40  50  40
MESCALERO               37  65  37  64  41 /  20  40  40  50  30
TIMBERON                39  65  39  63  41 /  20  40  40  50  40
WINSTON                 47  66  47  67  47 /  20  50  50  60  20
HILLSBORO               51  70  48  69  51 /  20  40  50  50  30
SPACEPORT               47  75  46  74  50 /  20  30  40  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            46  69  45  67  46 /  20  50  50  50  20
HURLEY                  50  71  48  69  50 /  20  40  50  40  20
CLIFF                   47  75  46  73  48 /  20  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              40  73  38  71  44 /  20  40  40  30  10
FAYWOOD                 51  71  48  69  51 /  20  40  50  50  20
ANIMAS                  53  80  50  78  53 /  20  40  40  30  20
HACHITA                 51  78  49  75  52 /  20  40  40  40  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  80  47  77  51 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLOVERDALE              51  78  49  76  51 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26

TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180955
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY THURSDAY DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE BORDERLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT A WEAK
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WAS MOVING TO THE EAST. ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS
INDUCED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN A CHANCES FOR FURTHER
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND EAST.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN SO FORECAST HAS GREATER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY INTO CALIFORNIA AND BAJA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH CLOSED LOW
ALOFT FORMING OVER ARIZONA-MEXICO BORDER AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BACKING FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. CONCURRENTLY AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WILL COMBINE WITH TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA TO
SUSTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. CONSEQUENTLY
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THIS WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING FROM .75 TO AN INCH WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES GENERALLY TO THE EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH CENTER NEAR EL PASO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW DPVA SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATING DYNAMIC LIFTING
WHICH WILL ALSO BRING SOME COOLING ALOFT TO THE AREA CAUSING AIR
MASS TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. ACCORDINGLY CAPES WILL BE AROUND 500
TO 1000 J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 30 KT MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND EVEN WEAK
ROTATION SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST
THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL PRODUCING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CWA LATER TUESDAY
BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUSTAINING
PRECIP THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD ONLY BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FAR EASTERN ZONES AT MOST WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/12Z-19/12Z.
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE FIRE
DANGER. BY THURSDAY DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE BORDERLAND
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  59  79  58  74 /  10  20  30  50  50
SIERRA BLANCA           79  51  75  53  71 /  10  10  20  50  50
LAS CRUCES              78  55  76  53  73 /  10  20  30  50  50
ALAMOGORDO              78  49  76  48  74 /  10  20  30  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              57  36  58  37  56 /  20  30  40  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  55  74  55  73 /   0  20  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             75  49  70  47  68 /  10  30  50  50  40
DEMING                  80  56  77  51  74 /   0  20  40  50  40
LORDSBURG               83  54  78  50  75 /   0  20  40  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      83  60  78  59  75 /  10  20  30  50  50
DELL CITY               77  48  76  48  73 /  10  20  20  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  79  57  75 /  10  20  20  50  50
LOMA LINDA              75  53  74  53  70 /  10  20  30  50  50
FABENS                  84  54  80  53  75 /  10  20  30  50  50
SANTA TERESA            81  56  77  55  74 /  10  20  30  50  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  57  76  55  73 /  10  20  30  50  50
JORNADA RANGE           78  47  75  45  73 /  10  20  30  50  50
HATCH                   78  53  75  51  74 /   0  20  30  50  50
COLUMBUS                81  57  78  54  74 /   0  20  40  50  40
OROGRANDE               78  56  77  54  74 /  10  20  30  40  50
MAYHILL                 62  41  65  42  63 /  20  30  40  40  50
MESCALERO               67  37  65  37  64 /  20  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                64  39  65  39  63 /  20  30  40  40  50
WINSTON                 70  47  66  47  67 /  10  30  50  50  60
HILLSBORO               72  51  70  48  69 /   0  20  40  50  50
SPACEPORT               78  47  75  46  74 /   0  20  30  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            72  46  69  45  67 /  10  30  50  50  50
HURLEY                  75  50  71  48  69 /   0  20  40  50  40
CLIFF                   80  47  75  46  73 /   0  20  40  40  30
MULE CREEK              79  40  73  38  71 /   0  20  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 74  51  71  48  69 /   0  20  40  50  50
ANIMAS                  85  53  80  50  78 /   0  20  40  40  30
HACHITA                 84  51  78  49  75 /   0  20  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  51  80  47  77 /   0  20  40  40  30
CLOVERDALE              84  51  78  49  76 /   0  20  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180955
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY THURSDAY DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE BORDERLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT A WEAK
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WAS MOVING TO THE EAST. ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS
INDUCED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN A CHANCES FOR FURTHER
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND EAST.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN SO FORECAST HAS GREATER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY INTO CALIFORNIA AND BAJA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH CLOSED LOW
ALOFT FORMING OVER ARIZONA-MEXICO BORDER AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BACKING FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. CONCURRENTLY AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WILL COMBINE WITH TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA TO
SUSTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. CONSEQUENTLY
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THIS WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING FROM .75 TO AN INCH WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES GENERALLY TO THE EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH CENTER NEAR EL PASO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW DPVA SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATING DYNAMIC LIFTING
WHICH WILL ALSO BRING SOME COOLING ALOFT TO THE AREA CAUSING AIR
MASS TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. ACCORDINGLY CAPES WILL BE AROUND 500
TO 1000 J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 30 KT MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND EVEN WEAK
ROTATION SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST
THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL PRODUCING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CWA LATER TUESDAY
BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUSTAINING
PRECIP THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD ONLY BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FAR EASTERN ZONES AT MOST WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/12Z-19/12Z.
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE FIRE
DANGER. BY THURSDAY DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE BORDERLAND
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  59  79  58  74 /  10  20  30  50  50
SIERRA BLANCA           79  51  75  53  71 /  10  10  20  50  50
LAS CRUCES              78  55  76  53  73 /  10  20  30  50  50
ALAMOGORDO              78  49  76  48  74 /  10  20  30  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              57  36  58  37  56 /  20  30  40  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  55  74  55  73 /   0  20  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             75  49  70  47  68 /  10  30  50  50  40
DEMING                  80  56  77  51  74 /   0  20  40  50  40
LORDSBURG               83  54  78  50  75 /   0  20  40  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      83  60  78  59  75 /  10  20  30  50  50
DELL CITY               77  48  76  48  73 /  10  20  20  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  79  57  75 /  10  20  20  50  50
LOMA LINDA              75  53  74  53  70 /  10  20  30  50  50
FABENS                  84  54  80  53  75 /  10  20  30  50  50
SANTA TERESA            81  56  77  55  74 /  10  20  30  50  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  57  76  55  73 /  10  20  30  50  50
JORNADA RANGE           78  47  75  45  73 /  10  20  30  50  50
HATCH                   78  53  75  51  74 /   0  20  30  50  50
COLUMBUS                81  57  78  54  74 /   0  20  40  50  40
OROGRANDE               78  56  77  54  74 /  10  20  30  40  50
MAYHILL                 62  41  65  42  63 /  20  30  40  40  50
MESCALERO               67  37  65  37  64 /  20  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                64  39  65  39  63 /  20  30  40  40  50
WINSTON                 70  47  66  47  67 /  10  30  50  50  60
HILLSBORO               72  51  70  48  69 /   0  20  40  50  50
SPACEPORT               78  47  75  46  74 /   0  20  30  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            72  46  69  45  67 /  10  30  50  50  50
HURLEY                  75  50  71  48  69 /   0  20  40  50  40
CLIFF                   80  47  75  46  73 /   0  20  40  40  30
MULE CREEK              79  40  73  38  71 /   0  20  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 74  51  71  48  69 /   0  20  40  50  50
ANIMAS                  85  53  80  50  78 /   0  20  40  40  30
HACHITA                 84  51  78  49  75 /   0  20  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  51  80  47  77 /   0  20  40  40  30
CLOVERDALE              84  51  78  49  76 /   0  20  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180955
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY THURSDAY DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE BORDERLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT A WEAK
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WAS MOVING TO THE EAST. ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS
INDUCED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN A CHANCES FOR FURTHER
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND EAST.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN SO FORECAST HAS GREATER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY INTO CALIFORNIA AND BAJA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH CLOSED LOW
ALOFT FORMING OVER ARIZONA-MEXICO BORDER AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BACKING FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. CONCURRENTLY AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WILL COMBINE WITH TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA TO
SUSTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. CONSEQUENTLY
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THIS WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING FROM .75 TO AN INCH WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES GENERALLY TO THE EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH CENTER NEAR EL PASO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW DPVA SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATING DYNAMIC LIFTING
WHICH WILL ALSO BRING SOME COOLING ALOFT TO THE AREA CAUSING AIR
MASS TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. ACCORDINGLY CAPES WILL BE AROUND 500
TO 1000 J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 30 KT MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND EVEN WEAK
ROTATION SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST
THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL PRODUCING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CWA LATER TUESDAY
BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUSTAINING
PRECIP THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. THE ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD ONLY BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FAR EASTERN ZONES AT MOST WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/12Z-19/12Z.
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE FIRE
DANGER. BY THURSDAY DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE BORDERLAND
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  59  79  58  74 /  10  20  30  50  50
SIERRA BLANCA           79  51  75  53  71 /  10  10  20  50  50
LAS CRUCES              78  55  76  53  73 /  10  20  30  50  50
ALAMOGORDO              78  49  76  48  74 /  10  20  30  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              57  36  58  37  56 /  20  30  40  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  55  74  55  73 /   0  20  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             75  49  70  47  68 /  10  30  50  50  40
DEMING                  80  56  77  51  74 /   0  20  40  50  40
LORDSBURG               83  54  78  50  75 /   0  20  40  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      83  60  78  59  75 /  10  20  30  50  50
DELL CITY               77  48  76  48  73 /  10  20  20  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  79  57  75 /  10  20  20  50  50
LOMA LINDA              75  53  74  53  70 /  10  20  30  50  50
FABENS                  84  54  80  53  75 /  10  20  30  50  50
SANTA TERESA            81  56  77  55  74 /  10  20  30  50  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  57  76  55  73 /  10  20  30  50  50
JORNADA RANGE           78  47  75  45  73 /  10  20  30  50  50
HATCH                   78  53  75  51  74 /   0  20  30  50  50
COLUMBUS                81  57  78  54  74 /   0  20  40  50  40
OROGRANDE               78  56  77  54  74 /  10  20  30  40  50
MAYHILL                 62  41  65  42  63 /  20  30  40  40  50
MESCALERO               67  37  65  37  64 /  20  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                64  39  65  39  63 /  20  30  40  40  50
WINSTON                 70  47  66  47  67 /  10  30  50  50  60
HILLSBORO               72  51  70  48  69 /   0  20  40  50  50
SPACEPORT               78  47  75  46  74 /   0  20  30  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            72  46  69  45  67 /  10  30  50  50  50
HURLEY                  75  50  71  48  69 /   0  20  40  50  40
CLIFF                   80  47  75  46  73 /   0  20  40  40  30
MULE CREEK              79  40  73  38  71 /   0  20  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 74  51  71  48  69 /   0  20  40  50  50
ANIMAS                  85  53  80  50  78 /   0  20  40  40  30
HACHITA                 84  51  78  49  75 /   0  20  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  51  80  47  77 /   0  20  40  40  30
CLOVERDALE              84  51  78  49  76 /   0  20  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WHILE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES AND
DISAGREEMENTS WITH EACH SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THE LATEST OUTPUT SHOWS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONCERNING
PRECIP CHANCES/THREAT. BOTTOM LINE THOUGH IS WILL NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL SUBSEQUENT RUNS SHOW BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

CURRENTLY A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE WAS EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL INITIATE VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT BEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ESTABLISHED
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL FAVOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW LIKELY FORMING OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA VICINITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST WITH CENTER AROUND EL PASO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
APPROACH OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE DYNAMIC LIFTING ALOFT AS
MODELS SHOWING DPVA SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. CONCURRENTLY SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SUSTAIN MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

THUS DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO 50 F WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM .75 TO 1 INCH. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS CAUSING CAPES TO RISE TO AROUND 300 TO
800 J/KG. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WHILE CAPES WILL BE LIMITED...MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM 30 TO 40 KT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ENHANCEMENT. IN ADDITION WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. THUS A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

GFS MOVES TROUGH EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT ENDING RAIN THREAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A SECOND CUT OFF
LOW BUT THIS TIME THE MODEL KEEPS IT JUST EAST OF THE CWA ALSO
SUGGESTING A DRY SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER PERIODS DESPITE THE
LATEST DRY OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z - 19/00Z...
MINOR UPPER TROF TO APPROACH AREA FM W SAT AND A WK BKDR SFC CLD FNT
FM EAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AFT 06Z. 00Z-06Z. FEW070 SCT140
SCT250. SW TO NW SFC WINDS 08KTS. 06Z-18Z: WSHFT 07010KT( G 20KT W
SLOPES/CANYONS). SCT060 SCT-BKN100-140 SCT-BKN200-250 (LCL 040BKN
100OVC -SHRA EAST SLOPES SAC MTNS SOUTHWARD INTO ERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY). AFT 18Z: SCT060 SCT-BKN100 SCT-BKN200-250. ISOLD -SHRA TS
GILA AND SAC MTNS. LGT ISOLD MDT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLOW 10K MSL AFT
06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING A A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT
COOLING. HOWEVER...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS START TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...CLOUDIER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 62  82  59  79  59 /  10   0   0  20  50
SIERRA BLANCA           54  79  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  40
LAS CRUCES              55  78  55  76  54 /   0   0   0  20  50
ALAMOGORDO              53  78  49  76  49 /  10  10   0  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              41  57  36  58  38 /  20  20  10  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  77  55  74  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
SILVER CITY             50  75  49  70  48 /  10   0  10  40  50
DEMING                  52  80  56  77  52 /   0   0   0  40  60
LORDSBURG               52  83  54  78  51 /  10   0   0  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      60  83  60  78  60 /   0   0   0  20  50
DELL CITY               51  77  48  76  49 /  10   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            57  84  56  79  58 /  10   0   0  10  50
LOMA LINDA              55  75  53  74  54 /  10   0   0  20  50
FABENS                  55  84  54  80  54 /  10   0   0  20  50
SANTA TERESA            57  81  56  77  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  77  57  76  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
JORNADA RANGE           46  78  47  75  46 /   0   0   0  20  50
HATCH                   52  78  53  75  52 /   0   0   0  30  60
COLUMBUS                56  81  57  78  55 /   0   0   0  50  50
OROGRANDE               57  78  56  77  55 /   0   0   0  20  40
MAYHILL                 44  62  41  65  43 /  10  20  10  30  30
MESCALERO               41  67  37  65  38 /  10  20  10  30  30
TIMBERON                43  64  39  65  40 /  10  20  10  20  40
WINSTON                 49  70  47  66  48 /  10  10  10  40  50
HILLSBORO               53  72  51  70  49 /  10   0   0  40  60
SPACEPORT               49  78  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  20  50
LAKE ROBERTS            48  72  46  69  46 /  10  10  10  50  50
HURLEY                  50  75  50  71  49 /  10   0   0  40  50
CLIFF                   48  80  47  75  47 /  10   0   0  40  40
MULE CREEK              42  79  40  73  39 /  10   0   0  40  30
FAYWOOD                 52  74  51  71  49 /  10   0   0  40  60
ANIMAS                  55  85  53  80  51 /  10   0   0  30  30
HACHITA                 53  84  51  78  50 /   0   0   0  50  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  86  51  80  48 /  10   0   0  50  30
CLOVERDALE              53  84  51  78  50 /  10   0   0  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WHILE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES AND
DISAGREEMENTS WITH EACH SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THE LATEST OUTPUT SHOWS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONCERNING
PRECIP CHANCES/THREAT. BOTTOM LINE THOUGH IS WILL NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL SUBSEQUENT RUNS SHOW BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

CURRENTLY A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE WAS EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL INITIATE VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT BEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ESTABLISHED
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL FAVOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW LIKELY FORMING OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA VICINITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST WITH CENTER AROUND EL PASO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
APPROACH OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE DYNAMIC LIFTING ALOFT AS
MODELS SHOWING DPVA SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. CONCURRENTLY SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SUSTAIN MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

THUS DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO 50 F WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM .75 TO 1 INCH. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS CAUSING CAPES TO RISE TO AROUND 300 TO
800 J/KG. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WHILE CAPES WILL BE LIMITED...MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM 30 TO 40 KT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ENHANCEMENT. IN ADDITION WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. THUS A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

GFS MOVES TROUGH EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT ENDING RAIN THREAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A SECOND CUT OFF
LOW BUT THIS TIME THE MODEL KEEPS IT JUST EAST OF THE CWA ALSO
SUGGESTING A DRY SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER PERIODS DESPITE THE
LATEST DRY OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z - 19/00Z...
MINOR UPPER TROF TO APPROACH AREA FM W SAT AND A WK BKDR SFC CLD FNT
FM EAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AFT 06Z. 00Z-06Z. FEW070 SCT140
SCT250. SW TO NW SFC WINDS 08KTS. 06Z-18Z: WSHFT 07010KT( G 20KT W
SLOPES/CANYONS). SCT060 SCT-BKN100-140 SCT-BKN200-250 (LCL 040BKN
100OVC -SHRA EAST SLOPES SAC MTNS SOUTHWARD INTO ERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY). AFT 18Z: SCT060 SCT-BKN100 SCT-BKN200-250. ISOLD -SHRA TS
GILA AND SAC MTNS. LGT ISOLD MDT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLOW 10K MSL AFT
06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING A A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT
COOLING. HOWEVER...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS START TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...CLOUDIER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 62  82  59  79  59 /  10   0   0  20  50
SIERRA BLANCA           54  79  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  40
LAS CRUCES              55  78  55  76  54 /   0   0   0  20  50
ALAMOGORDO              53  78  49  76  49 /  10  10   0  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              41  57  36  58  38 /  20  20  10  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  77  55  74  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
SILVER CITY             50  75  49  70  48 /  10   0  10  40  50
DEMING                  52  80  56  77  52 /   0   0   0  40  60
LORDSBURG               52  83  54  78  51 /  10   0   0  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      60  83  60  78  60 /   0   0   0  20  50
DELL CITY               51  77  48  76  49 /  10   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            57  84  56  79  58 /  10   0   0  10  50
LOMA LINDA              55  75  53  74  54 /  10   0   0  20  50
FABENS                  55  84  54  80  54 /  10   0   0  20  50
SANTA TERESA            57  81  56  77  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  77  57  76  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
JORNADA RANGE           46  78  47  75  46 /   0   0   0  20  50
HATCH                   52  78  53  75  52 /   0   0   0  30  60
COLUMBUS                56  81  57  78  55 /   0   0   0  50  50
OROGRANDE               57  78  56  77  55 /   0   0   0  20  40
MAYHILL                 44  62  41  65  43 /  10  20  10  30  30
MESCALERO               41  67  37  65  38 /  10  20  10  30  30
TIMBERON                43  64  39  65  40 /  10  20  10  20  40
WINSTON                 49  70  47  66  48 /  10  10  10  40  50
HILLSBORO               53  72  51  70  49 /  10   0   0  40  60
SPACEPORT               49  78  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  20  50
LAKE ROBERTS            48  72  46  69  46 /  10  10  10  50  50
HURLEY                  50  75  50  71  49 /  10   0   0  40  50
CLIFF                   48  80  47  75  47 /  10   0   0  40  40
MULE CREEK              42  79  40  73  39 /  10   0   0  40  30
FAYWOOD                 52  74  51  71  49 /  10   0   0  40  60
ANIMAS                  55  85  53  80  51 /  10   0   0  30  30
HACHITA                 53  84  51  78  50 /   0   0   0  50  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  86  51  80  48 /  10   0   0  50  30
CLOVERDALE              53  84  51  78  50 /  10   0   0  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WHILE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES AND
DISAGREEMENTS WITH EACH SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THE LATEST OUTPUT SHOWS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONCERNING
PRECIP CHANCES/THREAT. BOTTOM LINE THOUGH IS WILL NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL SUBSEQUENT RUNS SHOW BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

CURRENTLY A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE WAS EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL INITIATE VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT BEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ESTABLISHED
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL FAVOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW LIKELY FORMING OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA VICINITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST WITH CENTER AROUND EL PASO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
APPROACH OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE DYNAMIC LIFTING ALOFT AS
MODELS SHOWING DPVA SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. CONCURRENTLY SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SUSTAIN MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

THUS DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO 50 F WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM .75 TO 1 INCH. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS CAUSING CAPES TO RISE TO AROUND 300 TO
800 J/KG. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WHILE CAPES WILL BE LIMITED...MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM 30 TO 40 KT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ENHANCEMENT. IN ADDITION WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. THUS A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

GFS MOVES TROUGH EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT ENDING RAIN THREAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A SECOND CUT OFF
LOW BUT THIS TIME THE MODEL KEEPS IT JUST EAST OF THE CWA ALSO
SUGGESTING A DRY SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER PERIODS DESPITE THE
LATEST DRY OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z - 19/00Z...
MINOR UPPER TROF TO APPROACH AREA FM W SAT AND A WK BKDR SFC CLD FNT
FM EAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AFT 06Z. 00Z-06Z. FEW070 SCT140
SCT250. SW TO NW SFC WINDS 08KTS. 06Z-18Z: WSHFT 07010KT( G 20KT W
SLOPES/CANYONS). SCT060 SCT-BKN100-140 SCT-BKN200-250 (LCL 040BKN
100OVC -SHRA EAST SLOPES SAC MTNS SOUTHWARD INTO ERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY). AFT 18Z: SCT060 SCT-BKN100 SCT-BKN200-250. ISOLD -SHRA TS
GILA AND SAC MTNS. LGT ISOLD MDT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLOW 10K MSL AFT
06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING A A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT
COOLING. HOWEVER...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS START TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...CLOUDIER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 62  82  59  79  59 /  10   0   0  20  50
SIERRA BLANCA           54  79  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  40
LAS CRUCES              55  78  55  76  54 /   0   0   0  20  50
ALAMOGORDO              53  78  49  76  49 /  10  10   0  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              41  57  36  58  38 /  20  20  10  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  77  55  74  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
SILVER CITY             50  75  49  70  48 /  10   0  10  40  50
DEMING                  52  80  56  77  52 /   0   0   0  40  60
LORDSBURG               52  83  54  78  51 /  10   0   0  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      60  83  60  78  60 /   0   0   0  20  50
DELL CITY               51  77  48  76  49 /  10   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            57  84  56  79  58 /  10   0   0  10  50
LOMA LINDA              55  75  53  74  54 /  10   0   0  20  50
FABENS                  55  84  54  80  54 /  10   0   0  20  50
SANTA TERESA            57  81  56  77  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  77  57  76  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
JORNADA RANGE           46  78  47  75  46 /   0   0   0  20  50
HATCH                   52  78  53  75  52 /   0   0   0  30  60
COLUMBUS                56  81  57  78  55 /   0   0   0  50  50
OROGRANDE               57  78  56  77  55 /   0   0   0  20  40
MAYHILL                 44  62  41  65  43 /  10  20  10  30  30
MESCALERO               41  67  37  65  38 /  10  20  10  30  30
TIMBERON                43  64  39  65  40 /  10  20  10  20  40
WINSTON                 49  70  47  66  48 /  10  10  10  40  50
HILLSBORO               53  72  51  70  49 /  10   0   0  40  60
SPACEPORT               49  78  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  20  50
LAKE ROBERTS            48  72  46  69  46 /  10  10  10  50  50
HURLEY                  50  75  50  71  49 /  10   0   0  40  50
CLIFF                   48  80  47  75  47 /  10   0   0  40  40
MULE CREEK              42  79  40  73  39 /  10   0   0  40  30
FAYWOOD                 52  74  51  71  49 /  10   0   0  40  60
ANIMAS                  55  85  53  80  51 /  10   0   0  30  30
HACHITA                 53  84  51  78  50 /   0   0   0  50  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  86  51  80  48 /  10   0   0  50  30
CLOVERDALE              53  84  51  78  50 /  10   0   0  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WHILE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES AND
DISAGREEMENTS WITH EACH SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THE LATEST OUTPUT SHOWS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONCERNING
PRECIP CHANCES/THREAT. BOTTOM LINE THOUGH IS WILL NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL SUBSEQUENT RUNS SHOW BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

CURRENTLY A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE WAS EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL INITIATE VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT BEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ESTABLISHED
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL FAVOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW LIKELY FORMING OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA VICINITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST WITH CENTER AROUND EL PASO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
APPROACH OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE DYNAMIC LIFTING ALOFT AS
MODELS SHOWING DPVA SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. CONCURRENTLY SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SUSTAIN MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

THUS DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO 50 F WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM .75 TO 1 INCH. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS CAUSING CAPES TO RISE TO AROUND 300 TO
800 J/KG. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WHILE CAPES WILL BE LIMITED...MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM 30 TO 40 KT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ENHANCEMENT. IN ADDITION WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. THUS A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

GFS MOVES TROUGH EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT ENDING RAIN THREAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A SECOND CUT OFF
LOW BUT THIS TIME THE MODEL KEEPS IT JUST EAST OF THE CWA ALSO
SUGGESTING A DRY SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER PERIODS DESPITE THE
LATEST DRY OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z - 19/00Z...
MINOR UPPER TROF TO APPROACH AREA FM W SAT AND A WK BKDR SFC CLD FNT
FM EAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AFT 06Z. 00Z-06Z. FEW070 SCT140
SCT250. SW TO NW SFC WINDS 08KTS. 06Z-18Z: WSHFT 07010KT( G 20KT W
SLOPES/CANYONS). SCT060 SCT-BKN100-140 SCT-BKN200-250 (LCL 040BKN
100OVC -SHRA EAST SLOPES SAC MTNS SOUTHWARD INTO ERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY). AFT 18Z: SCT060 SCT-BKN100 SCT-BKN200-250. ISOLD -SHRA TS
GILA AND SAC MTNS. LGT ISOLD MDT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLOW 10K MSL AFT
06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING A A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT
COOLING. HOWEVER...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS START TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...CLOUDIER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 62  82  59  79  59 /  10   0   0  20  50
SIERRA BLANCA           54  79  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  40
LAS CRUCES              55  78  55  76  54 /   0   0   0  20  50
ALAMOGORDO              53  78  49  76  49 /  10  10   0  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              41  57  36  58  38 /  20  20  10  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  77  55  74  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
SILVER CITY             50  75  49  70  48 /  10   0  10  40  50
DEMING                  52  80  56  77  52 /   0   0   0  40  60
LORDSBURG               52  83  54  78  51 /  10   0   0  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      60  83  60  78  60 /   0   0   0  20  50
DELL CITY               51  77  48  76  49 /  10   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            57  84  56  79  58 /  10   0   0  10  50
LOMA LINDA              55  75  53  74  54 /  10   0   0  20  50
FABENS                  55  84  54  80  54 /  10   0   0  20  50
SANTA TERESA            57  81  56  77  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  77  57  76  56 /   0   0   0  20  50
JORNADA RANGE           46  78  47  75  46 /   0   0   0  20  50
HATCH                   52  78  53  75  52 /   0   0   0  30  60
COLUMBUS                56  81  57  78  55 /   0   0   0  50  50
OROGRANDE               57  78  56  77  55 /   0   0   0  20  40
MAYHILL                 44  62  41  65  43 /  10  20  10  30  30
MESCALERO               41  67  37  65  38 /  10  20  10  30  30
TIMBERON                43  64  39  65  40 /  10  20  10  20  40
WINSTON                 49  70  47  66  48 /  10  10  10  40  50
HILLSBORO               53  72  51  70  49 /  10   0   0  40  60
SPACEPORT               49  78  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  20  50
LAKE ROBERTS            48  72  46  69  46 /  10  10  10  50  50
HURLEY                  50  75  50  71  49 /  10   0   0  40  50
CLIFF                   48  80  47  75  47 /  10   0   0  40  40
MULE CREEK              42  79  40  73  39 /  10   0   0  40  30
FAYWOOD                 52  74  51  71  49 /  10   0   0  40  60
ANIMAS                  55  85  53  80  51 /  10   0   0  30  30
HACHITA                 53  84  51  78  50 /   0   0   0  50  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  86  51  80  48 /  10   0   0  50  30
CLOVERDALE              53  84  51  78  50 /  10   0   0  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171049
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
449 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
AREA TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING ON SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...WITH THE
RISK SHIFTING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW
WITH SYSTEM IN TERMS OF OVERALL RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS...IT WILL
BE A HARBINGER FOR A WETTER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IS JUST WEST OF ENSENADA THIS
MORNING... AND JUST A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP
IN A BAND FROM SAN DIEGO DOWN TOWARDS PUERTO PENASCO. VARIOUS
SATELLITE-DERIVED BLENDED PW PRODUCTS SHOW THE HIGHER PW VALUES
(OVER 30 MM) ARE LURKING SOUTH OF 30 DEGREES LATITUDE. A LATE
NIGHT SOUNDING FROM YUMA SHOWS VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 550
MB AND PW AROUND 25 MM.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MID-CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE BOOTHEEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PVA INCREASES AHEAD OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS AND BEST LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
REALLY COULD NOT FIND ANY REASON TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 10-POP
FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD... WHICH WILL INCREASE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT BOOST IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE NAM AND A FEW MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE
OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...OVER
THE OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTRA MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT QPF AND
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WENT WITH JUST 10-POPS OUT EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE IN THE ELP-LRU-
TCS CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
STILL LOOKING AT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...A VIGOROUS TROUGH CURRENTLY LURKING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING...THE TROUGH WILL
CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS WILL PERSIST...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR AREA...UP TO ABOUT
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OR AZ/NM BORDER.

WHILE SATURDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY PRECIP-
FREE ACROSS THE AREA...A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW AND THE TROUGH IT IS EMBEDDED IN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE-TILT
ORIENTATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WITH BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES RUNNING 30-40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW
ITSELF WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH UPPER-LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS NOT REALLY FAVORING DEEPENING. THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH
THE LOW WILL ONLY BE AROUND -14C...AND COLD ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK. THE RESULT IS WEAK INSTABILITY...MAXING OUT
AROUND 600 J/KG IN SW NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...WEST OF
A DMN-TCS LINE ANYWAYS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL GREATLY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST AND
RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM`S
PROGRESSION VERSUS THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE LOW AROUND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER AMPLITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL KEEP OUR AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES PERSIST.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL DAILY QPF VALUES WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WHICH WILL
MITIGATE THE THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
SOME AREAS WILL PAD THEIR ANNUAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO...WITH 0.50 TO 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS MORE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST...GENERALLY SCT-BKN250 AFTER 18Z. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL WORK INTO FAR SW NEW MEXICO AFTER 18Z WITH SCT-BKN150. A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SW NEW MEXICO AFTER 00Z... SHIFTING
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AFTER 06Z. HIGHLY ISOLATED TS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES AFTER 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE TODAY DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING...BUT WEAK...CUTOFF LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SW NEW MEXICO...AND SPREADING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE SHOWER RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPS GULF MOISTURE IN THE AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
HIGHER RH AND WETTING RAINS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  62  82  59  79 /   0  10   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           85  54  79  51  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              84  55  78  55  76 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              85  53  78  49  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              63  41  57  36  58 /   0  10  20   0  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  57  77  55  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             76  50  75  49  70 /   0  10   0   0  50
DEMING                  83  52  80  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  40
LORDSBURG               81  52  83  54  78 /   0  10   0   0  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  60  83  60  78 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               86  51  77  48  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            89  57  84  56  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              82  55  75  53  74 /   0  10   0   0  10
FABENS                  88  55  84  54  80 /   0  10   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            86  57  81  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          84  57  77  57  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           85  46  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   85  52  78  53  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                83  56  81  57  78 /   0   0   0   0  50
OROGRANDE               85  57  78  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 74  44  62  41  65 /   0  10  20   0  30
MESCALERO               74  41  67  37  65 /   0  10  20   0  20
TIMBERON                72  43  64  39  65 /   0  10  20   0  20
WINSTON                 76  49  70  47  66 /   0  10  10   0  40
HILLSBORO               79  53  72  51  70 /   0  10   0   0  40
SPACEPORT               84  49  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            74  48  72  46  69 /   0  10  10   0  50
HURLEY                  78  50  75  50  71 /   0  10   0   0  50
CLIFF                   80  48  80  47  75 /   0  10   0   0  40
MULE CREEK              77  42  79  40  73 /   0  10   0   0  40
FAYWOOD                 78  52  74  51  71 /   0  10   0   0  50
ANIMAS                  83  55  85  53  80 /   0  10   0   0  30
HACHITA                 84  53  84  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  54  86  51  80 /   0  10   0   0  50
CLOVERDALE              80  53  84  51  78 /   0  10   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171049
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
449 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
AREA TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING ON SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...WITH THE
RISK SHIFTING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW
WITH SYSTEM IN TERMS OF OVERALL RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS...IT WILL
BE A HARBINGER FOR A WETTER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IS JUST WEST OF ENSENADA THIS
MORNING... AND JUST A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP
IN A BAND FROM SAN DIEGO DOWN TOWARDS PUERTO PENASCO. VARIOUS
SATELLITE-DERIVED BLENDED PW PRODUCTS SHOW THE HIGHER PW VALUES
(OVER 30 MM) ARE LURKING SOUTH OF 30 DEGREES LATITUDE. A LATE
NIGHT SOUNDING FROM YUMA SHOWS VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 550
MB AND PW AROUND 25 MM.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MID-CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE BOOTHEEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PVA INCREASES AHEAD OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS AND BEST LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
REALLY COULD NOT FIND ANY REASON TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 10-POP
FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD... WHICH WILL INCREASE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT BOOST IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE NAM AND A FEW MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE
OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...OVER
THE OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTRA MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT QPF AND
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WENT WITH JUST 10-POPS OUT EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE IN THE ELP-LRU-
TCS CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
STILL LOOKING AT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...A VIGOROUS TROUGH CURRENTLY LURKING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING...THE TROUGH WILL
CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS WILL PERSIST...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR AREA...UP TO ABOUT
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OR AZ/NM BORDER.

WHILE SATURDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY PRECIP-
FREE ACROSS THE AREA...A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW AND THE TROUGH IT IS EMBEDDED IN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE-TILT
ORIENTATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WITH BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES RUNNING 30-40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW
ITSELF WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH UPPER-LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS NOT REALLY FAVORING DEEPENING. THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH
THE LOW WILL ONLY BE AROUND -14C...AND COLD ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK. THE RESULT IS WEAK INSTABILITY...MAXING OUT
AROUND 600 J/KG IN SW NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...WEST OF
A DMN-TCS LINE ANYWAYS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL GREATLY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST AND
RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM`S
PROGRESSION VERSUS THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE LOW AROUND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER AMPLITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL KEEP OUR AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES PERSIST.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL DAILY QPF VALUES WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WHICH WILL
MITIGATE THE THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
SOME AREAS WILL PAD THEIR ANNUAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO...WITH 0.50 TO 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS MORE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST...GENERALLY SCT-BKN250 AFTER 18Z. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL WORK INTO FAR SW NEW MEXICO AFTER 18Z WITH SCT-BKN150. A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SW NEW MEXICO AFTER 00Z... SHIFTING
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AFTER 06Z. HIGHLY ISOLATED TS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES AFTER 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE TODAY DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING...BUT WEAK...CUTOFF LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SW NEW MEXICO...AND SPREADING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE SHOWER RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPS GULF MOISTURE IN THE AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
HIGHER RH AND WETTING RAINS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  62  82  59  79 /   0  10   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           85  54  79  51  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              84  55  78  55  76 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              85  53  78  49  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              63  41  57  36  58 /   0  10  20   0  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  57  77  55  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             76  50  75  49  70 /   0  10   0   0  50
DEMING                  83  52  80  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  40
LORDSBURG               81  52  83  54  78 /   0  10   0   0  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  60  83  60  78 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               86  51  77  48  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            89  57  84  56  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              82  55  75  53  74 /   0  10   0   0  10
FABENS                  88  55  84  54  80 /   0  10   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            86  57  81  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          84  57  77  57  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           85  46  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   85  52  78  53  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                83  56  81  57  78 /   0   0   0   0  50
OROGRANDE               85  57  78  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 74  44  62  41  65 /   0  10  20   0  30
MESCALERO               74  41  67  37  65 /   0  10  20   0  20
TIMBERON                72  43  64  39  65 /   0  10  20   0  20
WINSTON                 76  49  70  47  66 /   0  10  10   0  40
HILLSBORO               79  53  72  51  70 /   0  10   0   0  40
SPACEPORT               84  49  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            74  48  72  46  69 /   0  10  10   0  50
HURLEY                  78  50  75  50  71 /   0  10   0   0  50
CLIFF                   80  48  80  47  75 /   0  10   0   0  40
MULE CREEK              77  42  79  40  73 /   0  10   0   0  40
FAYWOOD                 78  52  74  51  71 /   0  10   0   0  50
ANIMAS                  83  55  85  53  80 /   0  10   0   0  30
HACHITA                 84  53  84  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  54  86  51  80 /   0  10   0   0  50
CLOVERDALE              80  53  84  51  78 /   0  10   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171049
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
449 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
AREA TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING ON SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...WITH THE
RISK SHIFTING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW
WITH SYSTEM IN TERMS OF OVERALL RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS...IT WILL
BE A HARBINGER FOR A WETTER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IS JUST WEST OF ENSENADA THIS
MORNING... AND JUST A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP
IN A BAND FROM SAN DIEGO DOWN TOWARDS PUERTO PENASCO. VARIOUS
SATELLITE-DERIVED BLENDED PW PRODUCTS SHOW THE HIGHER PW VALUES
(OVER 30 MM) ARE LURKING SOUTH OF 30 DEGREES LATITUDE. A LATE
NIGHT SOUNDING FROM YUMA SHOWS VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 550
MB AND PW AROUND 25 MM.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MID-CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE BOOTHEEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PVA INCREASES AHEAD OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS AND BEST LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
REALLY COULD NOT FIND ANY REASON TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 10-POP
FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD... WHICH WILL INCREASE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT BOOST IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE NAM AND A FEW MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE
OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...OVER
THE OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTRA MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT QPF AND
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WENT WITH JUST 10-POPS OUT EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE IN THE ELP-LRU-
TCS CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
STILL LOOKING AT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...A VIGOROUS TROUGH CURRENTLY LURKING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING...THE TROUGH WILL
CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS WILL PERSIST...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR AREA...UP TO ABOUT
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OR AZ/NM BORDER.

WHILE SATURDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY PRECIP-
FREE ACROSS THE AREA...A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW AND THE TROUGH IT IS EMBEDDED IN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE-TILT
ORIENTATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WITH BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES RUNNING 30-40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW
ITSELF WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH UPPER-LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS NOT REALLY FAVORING DEEPENING. THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH
THE LOW WILL ONLY BE AROUND -14C...AND COLD ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK. THE RESULT IS WEAK INSTABILITY...MAXING OUT
AROUND 600 J/KG IN SW NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...WEST OF
A DMN-TCS LINE ANYWAYS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL GREATLY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST AND
RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM`S
PROGRESSION VERSUS THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE LOW AROUND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER AMPLITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL KEEP OUR AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES PERSIST.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL DAILY QPF VALUES WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WHICH WILL
MITIGATE THE THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
SOME AREAS WILL PAD THEIR ANNUAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO...WITH 0.50 TO 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS MORE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST...GENERALLY SCT-BKN250 AFTER 18Z. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL WORK INTO FAR SW NEW MEXICO AFTER 18Z WITH SCT-BKN150. A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SW NEW MEXICO AFTER 00Z... SHIFTING
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AFTER 06Z. HIGHLY ISOLATED TS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES AFTER 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE TODAY DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING...BUT WEAK...CUTOFF LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SW NEW MEXICO...AND SPREADING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE SHOWER RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPS GULF MOISTURE IN THE AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
HIGHER RH AND WETTING RAINS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  62  82  59  79 /   0  10   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           85  54  79  51  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              84  55  78  55  76 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              85  53  78  49  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              63  41  57  36  58 /   0  10  20   0  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  57  77  55  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             76  50  75  49  70 /   0  10   0   0  50
DEMING                  83  52  80  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  40
LORDSBURG               81  52  83  54  78 /   0  10   0   0  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  60  83  60  78 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               86  51  77  48  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            89  57  84  56  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              82  55  75  53  74 /   0  10   0   0  10
FABENS                  88  55  84  54  80 /   0  10   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            86  57  81  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          84  57  77  57  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           85  46  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   85  52  78  53  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                83  56  81  57  78 /   0   0   0   0  50
OROGRANDE               85  57  78  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 74  44  62  41  65 /   0  10  20   0  30
MESCALERO               74  41  67  37  65 /   0  10  20   0  20
TIMBERON                72  43  64  39  65 /   0  10  20   0  20
WINSTON                 76  49  70  47  66 /   0  10  10   0  40
HILLSBORO               79  53  72  51  70 /   0  10   0   0  40
SPACEPORT               84  49  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            74  48  72  46  69 /   0  10  10   0  50
HURLEY                  78  50  75  50  71 /   0  10   0   0  50
CLIFF                   80  48  80  47  75 /   0  10   0   0  40
MULE CREEK              77  42  79  40  73 /   0  10   0   0  40
FAYWOOD                 78  52  74  51  71 /   0  10   0   0  50
ANIMAS                  83  55  85  53  80 /   0  10   0   0  30
HACHITA                 84  53  84  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  54  86  51  80 /   0  10   0   0  50
CLOVERDALE              80  53  84  51  78 /   0  10   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171049
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
449 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
AREA TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING ON SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...WITH THE
RISK SHIFTING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW
WITH SYSTEM IN TERMS OF OVERALL RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS...IT WILL
BE A HARBINGER FOR A WETTER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IS JUST WEST OF ENSENADA THIS
MORNING... AND JUST A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP
IN A BAND FROM SAN DIEGO DOWN TOWARDS PUERTO PENASCO. VARIOUS
SATELLITE-DERIVED BLENDED PW PRODUCTS SHOW THE HIGHER PW VALUES
(OVER 30 MM) ARE LURKING SOUTH OF 30 DEGREES LATITUDE. A LATE
NIGHT SOUNDING FROM YUMA SHOWS VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 550
MB AND PW AROUND 25 MM.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MID-CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE BOOTHEEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PVA INCREASES AHEAD OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS AND BEST LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
REALLY COULD NOT FIND ANY REASON TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 10-POP
FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD... WHICH WILL INCREASE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT BOOST IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE NAM AND A FEW MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE
OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...OVER
THE OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTRA MOISTURE AND LIFT...BUT QPF AND
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WENT WITH JUST 10-POPS OUT EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE IN THE ELP-LRU-
TCS CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
STILL LOOKING AT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...A VIGOROUS TROUGH CURRENTLY LURKING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING...THE TROUGH WILL
CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS WILL PERSIST...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR AREA...UP TO ABOUT
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OR AZ/NM BORDER.

WHILE SATURDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY PRECIP-
FREE ACROSS THE AREA...A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW AND THE TROUGH IT IS EMBEDDED IN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE-TILT
ORIENTATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WITH BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES RUNNING 30-40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW
ITSELF WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH UPPER-LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS NOT REALLY FAVORING DEEPENING. THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH
THE LOW WILL ONLY BE AROUND -14C...AND COLD ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK. THE RESULT IS WEAK INSTABILITY...MAXING OUT
AROUND 600 J/KG IN SW NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...WEST OF
A DMN-TCS LINE ANYWAYS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL GREATLY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST AND
RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM`S
PROGRESSION VERSUS THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE LOW AROUND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER AMPLITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL KEEP OUR AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES PERSIST.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL DAILY QPF VALUES WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WHICH WILL
MITIGATE THE THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
SOME AREAS WILL PAD THEIR ANNUAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO...WITH 0.50 TO 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS MORE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST...GENERALLY SCT-BKN250 AFTER 18Z. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL WORK INTO FAR SW NEW MEXICO AFTER 18Z WITH SCT-BKN150. A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SW NEW MEXICO AFTER 00Z... SHIFTING
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AFTER 06Z. HIGHLY ISOLATED TS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES AFTER 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE TODAY DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING...BUT WEAK...CUTOFF LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SW NEW MEXICO...AND SPREADING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE SHOWER RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPS GULF MOISTURE IN THE AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
HIGHER RH AND WETTING RAINS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  62  82  59  79 /   0  10   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           85  54  79  51  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              84  55  78  55  76 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              85  53  78  49  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              63  41  57  36  58 /   0  10  20   0  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  57  77  55  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             76  50  75  49  70 /   0  10   0   0  50
DEMING                  83  52  80  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  40
LORDSBURG               81  52  83  54  78 /   0  10   0   0  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  60  83  60  78 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               86  51  77  48  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            89  57  84  56  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              82  55  75  53  74 /   0  10   0   0  10
FABENS                  88  55  84  54  80 /   0  10   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            86  57  81  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          84  57  77  57  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           85  46  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   85  52  78  53  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                83  56  81  57  78 /   0   0   0   0  50
OROGRANDE               85  57  78  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 74  44  62  41  65 /   0  10  20   0  30
MESCALERO               74  41  67  37  65 /   0  10  20   0  20
TIMBERON                72  43  64  39  65 /   0  10  20   0  20
WINSTON                 76  49  70  47  66 /   0  10  10   0  40
HILLSBORO               79  53  72  51  70 /   0  10   0   0  40
SPACEPORT               84  49  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            74  48  72  46  69 /   0  10  10   0  50
HURLEY                  78  50  75  50  71 /   0  10   0   0  50
CLIFF                   80  48  80  47  75 /   0  10   0   0  40
MULE CREEK              77  42  79  40  73 /   0  10   0   0  40
FAYWOOD                 78  52  74  51  71 /   0  10   0   0  50
ANIMAS                  83  55  85  53  80 /   0  10   0   0  30
HACHITA                 84  53  84  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  54  86  51  80 /   0  10   0   0  50
CLOVERDALE              80  53  84  51  78 /   0  10   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN







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