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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290931
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SETTING UP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF MOIST AIR FLOWING
OVER A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS GENERATED BY THE PREVIOUS
DAY`S CONVECTION. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THIS MORNING AS STORMS SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REFORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW
OVER THE STATE. IT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF AN AREA OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED MORE TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS
AT THIS TIME. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS MOIST FLOW ALONG
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE REGION WILL HELP
GENERATE NEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH NUMEROUS
STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STRONGER
STORMS. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GILA
REGION. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE.

THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-CENTERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND BEGINS TO
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PLUME
WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST ALLOWING DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR INTO THE AREA...LIMITING AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR FUELING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A LOW LEVEL SOUTH EAST FLOW WHILE
SOMEWHAT STABLE...WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS AND DEW
POINTS UP. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH FEW IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS MOSTLY DRY PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT MEANS LOWER
TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT A MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATION GRADUALLY ENTRAINS MORE MOISTURE AND THAT MOISTURE
FLOWS BACK INTO THE AREA. MAINLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z...
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL HELP FORM SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF BRIEF PERIODS IFR AND MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR
STRONGER STORMS. P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU PD WITH SCT
1-3SM TSRA BKN040- 060 AFT 18Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS. W TO NW WINDS AOB 12KTS BECOMING MORE E TO SE AFT
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR FROM STRONGER STORMS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  74  97  73 /  20  40   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           93  69  94  68 /  10  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              94  68  94  67 /  30  40   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              93  67  95  65 /  30  40   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              71  51  73  50 /  60  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  68  92  67 /  40  50  20  10
SILVER CITY             85  63  84  62 /  50  60  30  30
DEMING                  94  69  94  68 /  40  50  10  10
LORDSBURG               94  68  93  66 /  40  50  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  73  96  72 /  20  40   0   0
DELL CITY               96  70  95  68 /  10  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            96  73  97  71 /  10  40   0   0
LOMA LINDA              92  69  93  69 /  20  30   0   0
FABENS                  96  73  97  70 /  20  40   0   0
SANTA TERESA            95  71  96  70 /  20  40   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  69  95  68 /  30  40   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           93  67  94  66 /  30  50   0  10
HATCH                   94  67  94  66 /  40  50   0  10
COLUMBUS                94  70  94  69 /  30  50   0   0
OROGRANDE               94  70  95  69 /  20  40   0   0
MAYHILL                 79  56  80  56 /  60  40  20  10
MESCALERO               81  55  81  55 /  60  40  30  20
TIMBERON                80  56  81  56 /  60  40  20  10
WINSTON                 83  60  83  59 /  60  70  50  40
HILLSBORO               91  64  91  63 /  40  50  20  20
SPACEPORT               92  67  92  66 /  40  50   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            85  58  84  57 /  70  70  50  30
HURLEY                  88  64  88  63 /  40  50  20  20
CLIFF                   90  62  89  61 /  50  60  40  30
MULE CREEK              90  60  89  59 /  50  60  50  40
FAYWOOD                 89  64  89  64 /  40  50  10  20
ANIMAS                  94  68  92  67 /  40  50  30  30
HACHITA                 94  68  92  67 /  40  50  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  66  89  65 /  40  60  20  20
CLOVERDALE              87  65  88  65 /  50  60  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290931
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SETTING UP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF MOIST AIR FLOWING
OVER A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS GENERATED BY THE PREVIOUS
DAY`S CONVECTION. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THIS MORNING AS STORMS SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REFORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW
OVER THE STATE. IT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF AN AREA OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED MORE TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS
AT THIS TIME. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS MOIST FLOW ALONG
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE REGION WILL HELP
GENERATE NEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH NUMEROUS
STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STRONGER
STORMS. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GILA
REGION. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE.

THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-CENTERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND BEGINS TO
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PLUME
WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST ALLOWING DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR INTO THE AREA...LIMITING AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR FUELING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A LOW LEVEL SOUTH EAST FLOW WHILE
SOMEWHAT STABLE...WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS AND DEW
POINTS UP. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH FEW IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS MOSTLY DRY PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT MEANS LOWER
TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT A MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATION GRADUALLY ENTRAINS MORE MOISTURE AND THAT MOISTURE
FLOWS BACK INTO THE AREA. MAINLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z...
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL HELP FORM SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF BRIEF PERIODS IFR AND MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR
STRONGER STORMS. P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU PD WITH SCT
1-3SM TSRA BKN040- 060 AFT 18Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS. W TO NW WINDS AOB 12KTS BECOMING MORE E TO SE AFT
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR FROM STRONGER STORMS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  74  97  73 /  20  40   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           93  69  94  68 /  10  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              94  68  94  67 /  30  40   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              93  67  95  65 /  30  40   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              71  51  73  50 /  60  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  68  92  67 /  40  50  20  10
SILVER CITY             85  63  84  62 /  50  60  30  30
DEMING                  94  69  94  68 /  40  50  10  10
LORDSBURG               94  68  93  66 /  40  50  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  73  96  72 /  20  40   0   0
DELL CITY               96  70  95  68 /  10  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            96  73  97  71 /  10  40   0   0
LOMA LINDA              92  69  93  69 /  20  30   0   0
FABENS                  96  73  97  70 /  20  40   0   0
SANTA TERESA            95  71  96  70 /  20  40   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  69  95  68 /  30  40   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           93  67  94  66 /  30  50   0  10
HATCH                   94  67  94  66 /  40  50   0  10
COLUMBUS                94  70  94  69 /  30  50   0   0
OROGRANDE               94  70  95  69 /  20  40   0   0
MAYHILL                 79  56  80  56 /  60  40  20  10
MESCALERO               81  55  81  55 /  60  40  30  20
TIMBERON                80  56  81  56 /  60  40  20  10
WINSTON                 83  60  83  59 /  60  70  50  40
HILLSBORO               91  64  91  63 /  40  50  20  20
SPACEPORT               92  67  92  66 /  40  50   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            85  58  84  57 /  70  70  50  30
HURLEY                  88  64  88  63 /  40  50  20  20
CLIFF                   90  62  89  61 /  50  60  40  30
MULE CREEK              90  60  89  59 /  50  60  50  40
FAYWOOD                 89  64  89  64 /  40  50  10  20
ANIMAS                  94  68  92  67 /  40  50  30  30
HACHITA                 94  68  92  67 /  40  50  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  66  89  65 /  40  60  20  20
CLOVERDALE              87  65  88  65 /  50  60  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282138
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
338 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
PERSIST...ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL DIMINISH...BUT
NOT END...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND THE BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS OR PREVIOUS THINKING. UPPER HIGH IS
NOW CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS WITH MOISTURE PLUME...SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE BUT STILL INTACT...OVER ALL OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
A MINOR EASTERLY WAVE LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG BEND
AND MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA. HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME FLOODING LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
WHERE. NAM SUITE ALL SHOWING SURFACE CONVERGENCE TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT BATTLES THE WESTERLY FLOW OUT WEST. MEANWHILE
THE GFS SHOWS SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PW`S...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...MUCAPES...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALL SHOW GOOD HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS MOVING WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS
NUDGING INTO NEW MEXICO AND LIKELY STABILIZING MOST OF THE
EASTERN CWA OUT...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AFTERNOON CHANCES OVER THE SAC
MTNS. BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE HIGH CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD
DRIFT TO OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS...THOUGH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW MUCH HIGHER COVERAGE.

&&

NZUS04 KEPZ 281818
WRK001

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z.
P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU PD WITH SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-
060 THRU 06Z AND AFT 18Z...ISOLD 06Z TO 18Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. W TO NW WINDS AOB 12KTS BECOMING MORE E
TO SE AFT 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL HELP TO DROP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE LOWLANDS WITH
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SOME MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  97  73  96 /  30  20  40  10
SIERRA BLANCA           71  94  68  94 /  20  10  20   0
LAS CRUCES              69  96  67  95 /  30  30  40  10
ALAMOGORDO              69  95  66  95 /  30  30  30  10
CLOUDCROFT              49  71  48  72 /  50  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  93  67  93 /  30  40  50  20
SILVER CITY             64  87  62  85 /  30  50  50  40
DEMING                  71  95  68  95 /  30  40  40  20
LORDSBURG               69  95  67  94 /  30  40  50  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  97  72  96 /  30  20  40  10
DELL CITY               72  97  69  95 /  20  10  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            74  97  72  96 /  30  10  30   0
LOMA LINDA              69  94  68  94 /  30  20  20   0
FABENS                  72  97  72  97 /  30  20  30   0
SANTA TERESA            72  97  70  96 /  30  20  40  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  95  68  95 /  30  30  40  10
JORNADA RANGE           69  95  66  94 /  30  30  40  10
HATCH                   69  96  66  95 /  30  30  40  10
COLUMBUS                71  94  69  95 /  30  30  40  10
OROGRANDE               71  96  69  96 /  30  20  30  10
MAYHILL                 56  80  53  79 /  40  60  30  20
MESCALERO               55  81  53  81 /  40  60  40  30
TIMBERON                56  80  54  80 /  40  60  30  20
WINSTON                 59  85  58  84 /  40  60  70  60
HILLSBORO               65  93  63  93 /  30  40  50  20
SPACEPORT               69  94  66  93 /  30  40  40  10
LAKE ROBERTS            58  86  56  84 /  40  60  70  60
HURLEY                  64  90  63  89 /  30  40  50  30
CLIFF                   60  92  58  89 /  30  50  60  50
MULE CREEK              57  93  58  91 /  30  50  50  50
FAYWOOD                 65  91  63  90 /  30  40  50  20
ANIMAS                  69  94  67  93 /  30  40  50  30
HACHITA                 69  94  67  92 /  30  40  50  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  90  65  89 /  40  40  50  20
CLOVERDALE              65  89  64  90 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282138
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
338 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
PERSIST...ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL DIMINISH...BUT
NOT END...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND THE BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS OR PREVIOUS THINKING. UPPER HIGH IS
NOW CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS WITH MOISTURE PLUME...SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE BUT STILL INTACT...OVER ALL OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
A MINOR EASTERLY WAVE LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG BEND
AND MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA. HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME FLOODING LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
WHERE. NAM SUITE ALL SHOWING SURFACE CONVERGENCE TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT BATTLES THE WESTERLY FLOW OUT WEST. MEANWHILE
THE GFS SHOWS SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PW`S...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...MUCAPES...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALL SHOW GOOD HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS MOVING WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS
NUDGING INTO NEW MEXICO AND LIKELY STABILIZING MOST OF THE
EASTERN CWA OUT...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AFTERNOON CHANCES OVER THE SAC
MTNS. BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE HIGH CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD
DRIFT TO OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS...THOUGH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW MUCH HIGHER COVERAGE.

&&

NZUS04 KEPZ 281818
WRK001

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z.
P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU PD WITH SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-
060 THRU 06Z AND AFT 18Z...ISOLD 06Z TO 18Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. W TO NW WINDS AOB 12KTS BECOMING MORE E
TO SE AFT 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL HELP TO DROP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE LOWLANDS WITH
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SOME MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  97  73  96 /  30  20  40  10
SIERRA BLANCA           71  94  68  94 /  20  10  20   0
LAS CRUCES              69  96  67  95 /  30  30  40  10
ALAMOGORDO              69  95  66  95 /  30  30  30  10
CLOUDCROFT              49  71  48  72 /  50  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  93  67  93 /  30  40  50  20
SILVER CITY             64  87  62  85 /  30  50  50  40
DEMING                  71  95  68  95 /  30  40  40  20
LORDSBURG               69  95  67  94 /  30  40  50  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  97  72  96 /  30  20  40  10
DELL CITY               72  97  69  95 /  20  10  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            74  97  72  96 /  30  10  30   0
LOMA LINDA              69  94  68  94 /  30  20  20   0
FABENS                  72  97  72  97 /  30  20  30   0
SANTA TERESA            72  97  70  96 /  30  20  40  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  95  68  95 /  30  30  40  10
JORNADA RANGE           69  95  66  94 /  30  30  40  10
HATCH                   69  96  66  95 /  30  30  40  10
COLUMBUS                71  94  69  95 /  30  30  40  10
OROGRANDE               71  96  69  96 /  30  20  30  10
MAYHILL                 56  80  53  79 /  40  60  30  20
MESCALERO               55  81  53  81 /  40  60  40  30
TIMBERON                56  80  54  80 /  40  60  30  20
WINSTON                 59  85  58  84 /  40  60  70  60
HILLSBORO               65  93  63  93 /  30  40  50  20
SPACEPORT               69  94  66  93 /  30  40  40  10
LAKE ROBERTS            58  86  56  84 /  40  60  70  60
HURLEY                  64  90  63  89 /  30  40  50  30
CLIFF                   60  92  58  89 /  30  50  60  50
MULE CREEK              57  93  58  91 /  30  50  50  50
FAYWOOD                 65  91  63  90 /  30  40  50  20
ANIMAS                  69  94  67  93 /  30  40  50  30
HACHITA                 69  94  67  92 /  30  40  50  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  90  65  89 /  40  40  50  20
CLOVERDALE              65  89  64  90 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280944
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL HELP DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
INCREASES OVER THE AREA AND LIMITS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
MAINLY MOUNTAIN LOCALES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STEAM UP OVER NEW MEXICO FROM
THE SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT THAT WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STRONGER STORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE GILA REGION...WITH A MORE SPOTTY
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE LOWLAND DESERTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE AND DRIER ON
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH IN TEXAS RECENTERS OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL SHIFT THE PLUME FURTHER TO THE WEST AND BRING IN
A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE MORE STABLE. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL DROP A LITTLE IN RESPONSE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND AN INCH. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...AIDED BY MOUNTAIN
OROGRAPHICS. A FEW BRIEF ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS MAY OCCUR BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
EXCEPT FOR THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA REGIONS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES WHICH WILL PLACE THEM IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST
LOWLAND AREAS.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOISTURE SLOWLY GETS ENTRAINED
INTO THE CIRCULATION. AS MOISTURE FLOWS BACK OVER THE AREA
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH A REDUCED FLOODING
RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 21Z WITH SCT TSTMS
IN THE MTNS BY 18Z. AFT 21Z..P6SM FEW- SCT080-100 SCT- BKN200-250
THRU PD. ISOLD LOWLAND AND SCT MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 THRU 08Z.
S TO SW WINDS AOB 12KTS WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TO THE E TO SE EAST
OF DIVIDE BETWEEN 18Z- 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN WHICH WILL LIKELY SET UP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  74  97  73 /  20  30  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA           94  70  93  68 /  20  20  20  30
LAS CRUCES              96  68  94  67 /  20  30  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              96  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              73  51  71  50 /  60  50  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  69  92  67 /  20  30  50  50
SILVER CITY             88  63  85  61 /  30  30  60  60
DEMING                  97  70  94  68 /  20  30  40  50
LORDSBURG               96  68  94  67 /  20  30  50  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  72  96  72 /  20  30  30  40
DELL CITY               98  71  97  69 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  73  97  72 /  20  30  20  30
LOMA LINDA              94  68  92  67 /  20  30  20  30
FABENS                  99  71  97  72 /  20  30  20  40
SANTA TERESA            97  71  96  70 /  20  30  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          97  70  94  68 /  20  30  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           96  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  50
HATCH                   98  68  95  66 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBUS                96  70  93  69 /  20  30  40  50
OROGRANDE               96  70  95  69 /  20  30  30  40
MAYHILL                 83  57  80  54 /  60  40  70  40
MESCALERO               83  56  81  54 /  60  40  60  40
TIMBERON                83  57  80  55 /  40  40  60  40
WINSTON                 87  59  83  58 /  30  40  60  70
HILLSBORO               95  64  91  62 /  20  30  50  50
SPACEPORT               95  68  93  66 /  20  30  50  50
LAKE ROBERTS            88  58  84  56 /  40  40  60  70
HURLEY                  92  63  88  62 /  20  30  50  50
CLIFF                   93  64  91  61 /  20  30  60  60
MULE CREEK              93  61  91  60 /  20  30  60  60
FAYWOOD                 92  64  89  62 /  20  30  50  50
ANIMAS                  94  68  93  67 /  30  30  50  50
HACHITA                 94  68  93  67 /  20  30  50  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          90  66  89  65 /  40  40  50  60
CLOVERDALE              89  64  87  63 /  40  50  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280944
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL HELP DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
INCREASES OVER THE AREA AND LIMITS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
MAINLY MOUNTAIN LOCALES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STEAM UP OVER NEW MEXICO FROM
THE SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT THAT WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STRONGER STORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE GILA REGION...WITH A MORE SPOTTY
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE LOWLAND DESERTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE AND DRIER ON
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH IN TEXAS RECENTERS OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL SHIFT THE PLUME FURTHER TO THE WEST AND BRING IN
A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE MORE STABLE. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL DROP A LITTLE IN RESPONSE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND AN INCH. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...AIDED BY MOUNTAIN
OROGRAPHICS. A FEW BRIEF ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS MAY OCCUR BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
EXCEPT FOR THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA REGIONS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES WHICH WILL PLACE THEM IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST
LOWLAND AREAS.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOISTURE SLOWLY GETS ENTRAINED
INTO THE CIRCULATION. AS MOISTURE FLOWS BACK OVER THE AREA
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH A REDUCED FLOODING
RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 21Z WITH SCT TSTMS
IN THE MTNS BY 18Z. AFT 21Z..P6SM FEW- SCT080-100 SCT- BKN200-250
THRU PD. ISOLD LOWLAND AND SCT MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 THRU 08Z.
S TO SW WINDS AOB 12KTS WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TO THE E TO SE EAST
OF DIVIDE BETWEEN 18Z- 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN WHICH WILL LIKELY SET UP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  74  97  73 /  20  30  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA           94  70  93  68 /  20  20  20  30
LAS CRUCES              96  68  94  67 /  20  30  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              96  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              73  51  71  50 /  60  50  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  69  92  67 /  20  30  50  50
SILVER CITY             88  63  85  61 /  30  30  60  60
DEMING                  97  70  94  68 /  20  30  40  50
LORDSBURG               96  68  94  67 /  20  30  50  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  72  96  72 /  20  30  30  40
DELL CITY               98  71  97  69 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  73  97  72 /  20  30  20  30
LOMA LINDA              94  68  92  67 /  20  30  20  30
FABENS                  99  71  97  72 /  20  30  20  40
SANTA TERESA            97  71  96  70 /  20  30  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          97  70  94  68 /  20  30  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           96  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  50
HATCH                   98  68  95  66 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBUS                96  70  93  69 /  20  30  40  50
OROGRANDE               96  70  95  69 /  20  30  30  40
MAYHILL                 83  57  80  54 /  60  40  70  40
MESCALERO               83  56  81  54 /  60  40  60  40
TIMBERON                83  57  80  55 /  40  40  60  40
WINSTON                 87  59  83  58 /  30  40  60  70
HILLSBORO               95  64  91  62 /  20  30  50  50
SPACEPORT               95  68  93  66 /  20  30  50  50
LAKE ROBERTS            88  58  84  56 /  40  40  60  70
HURLEY                  92  63  88  62 /  20  30  50  50
CLIFF                   93  64  91  61 /  20  30  60  60
MULE CREEK              93  61  91  60 /  20  30  60  60
FAYWOOD                 92  64  89  62 /  20  30  50  50
ANIMAS                  94  68  93  67 /  30  30  50  50
HACHITA                 94  68  93  67 /  20  30  50  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          90  66  89  65 /  40  40  50  60
CLOVERDALE              89  64  87  63 /  40  50  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272114
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
314 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING WEST. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIKELY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINED WITH A
CONTINUING MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING. BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER
HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH STILL ANCHORED OVER NORTH TEXAS/OKLAHOMA TODAY WITH
TROPICAL PLUME REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. TPW
PRODUCT SHOWING PW`S RANGING FROM 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. TWO FEATURES
TO WATCH ON THE WV IMAGERY. FIRST IS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE BIG
BEND/PERMIAN BASIN WHICH CONTINUES TOWARD THE CWA. CONVECTION JUST
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THIS AREA AND WILL LIKELY MOVE WEST INTO
THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. SECOND FEATURE IS UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST. THE LOW ITSELF WILL
REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...BUT THE TROUGH COULD MOVE UP TO
THE NM BOOTHEEL TONIGHT AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE.
MODELS SHOW MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG TONIGHT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND
AS HIGH 1500 J/KG OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL
OF 40-55 MPH AND SMALL PEA SIZED HAIL. SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS LIKELY
TO ALLOW A FEW PLACES WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS DOES
MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HINTED AT A BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...THIS MORNING`S RUNS NOT VERY
EXPLICIT WITH THIS BUT CAN STILL FIND A WIND SHIFT LINE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
BEST WINDOW FOR AREA WIDE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ACTIVITY COULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY. CONTINUED WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
GUARANTEE SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING WEST OVER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN ALOFT AS
TRAJECTORY TURNS NORTH AND BRINGS IN CONTINENTAL AIR. EXPECT A
RAMP DOWN IN ACTIVITY FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
A NORTH FLOW OFTEN BRINGS DISTURBANCES AND COLD POOLS DOWN. SHOULD
STILL BE SPOTTIER RELATIVE TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 THRU PD. ISOLD LOWLAND AND SCT
MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 THRU 06Z AND AGAIN AFT 16Z. W TO NW
WINDS AOB 12KTS WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TO THE E TO SE EAST OF
DIVIDE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWLAND STORMS LATE TUESDAY
AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. GOING INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  98  73  97 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           69  93  67  93 /  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              69  96  66  95 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  94  65  94 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              50  70  48  69 /  40  40  50  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  94  67  92 /  20  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             62  87  60  86 /  20  30  30  60
DEMING                  69  96  67  94 /  20  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               67  95  66  94 /  20  20  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  99  71  96 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               72  97  69  97 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            73  98  71  97 /  20  20  30  20
LOMA LINDA              69  94  66  93 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  73  98  70  97 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            71  97  69  96 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  96  67  94 /  20  20  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           68  95  65  94 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   67  97  65  96 /  20  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                70  96  67  93 /  20  20  30  40
OROGRANDE               70  95  68  95 /  20  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 57  81  54  79 /  40  40  40  50
MESCALERO               54  82  53  80 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                56  81  54  79 /  40  40  40  50
WINSTON                 59  86  57  82 /  30  30  30  60
HILLSBORO               65  94  61  92 /  20  20  30  40
SPACEPORT               68  94  66  93 /  20  20  30  40
LAKE ROBERTS            57  87  56  84 /  30  40  40  60
HURLEY                  64  91  60  89 /  20  20  30  50
CLIFF                   61  92  61  91 /  20  20  20  50
MULE CREEK              58  92  58  92 /  10  20  20  60
FAYWOOD                 64  92  61  89 /  20  20  30  50
ANIMAS                  67  93  66  93 /  20  30  30  50
HACHITA                 67  93  66  93 /  20  20  30  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  89  64  90 /  20  40  40  50
CLOVERDALE              64  88  62  88 /  20  40  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272114
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
314 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING WEST. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIKELY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINED WITH A
CONTINUING MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING. BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER
HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH STILL ANCHORED OVER NORTH TEXAS/OKLAHOMA TODAY WITH
TROPICAL PLUME REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. TPW
PRODUCT SHOWING PW`S RANGING FROM 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. TWO FEATURES
TO WATCH ON THE WV IMAGERY. FIRST IS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE BIG
BEND/PERMIAN BASIN WHICH CONTINUES TOWARD THE CWA. CONVECTION JUST
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THIS AREA AND WILL LIKELY MOVE WEST INTO
THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. SECOND FEATURE IS UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST. THE LOW ITSELF WILL
REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...BUT THE TROUGH COULD MOVE UP TO
THE NM BOOTHEEL TONIGHT AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE.
MODELS SHOW MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG TONIGHT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND
AS HIGH 1500 J/KG OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL
OF 40-55 MPH AND SMALL PEA SIZED HAIL. SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS LIKELY
TO ALLOW A FEW PLACES WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS DOES
MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HINTED AT A BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...THIS MORNING`S RUNS NOT VERY
EXPLICIT WITH THIS BUT CAN STILL FIND A WIND SHIFT LINE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
BEST WINDOW FOR AREA WIDE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ACTIVITY COULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY. CONTINUED WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
GUARANTEE SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING WEST OVER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN ALOFT AS
TRAJECTORY TURNS NORTH AND BRINGS IN CONTINENTAL AIR. EXPECT A
RAMP DOWN IN ACTIVITY FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
A NORTH FLOW OFTEN BRINGS DISTURBANCES AND COLD POOLS DOWN. SHOULD
STILL BE SPOTTIER RELATIVE TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 THRU PD. ISOLD LOWLAND AND SCT
MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 THRU 06Z AND AGAIN AFT 16Z. W TO NW
WINDS AOB 12KTS WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TO THE E TO SE EAST OF
DIVIDE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWLAND STORMS LATE TUESDAY
AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. GOING INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  98  73  97 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           69  93  67  93 /  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              69  96  66  95 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  94  65  94 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              50  70  48  69 /  40  40  50  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  94  67  92 /  20  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             62  87  60  86 /  20  30  30  60
DEMING                  69  96  67  94 /  20  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               67  95  66  94 /  20  20  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  99  71  96 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               72  97  69  97 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            73  98  71  97 /  20  20  30  20
LOMA LINDA              69  94  66  93 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  73  98  70  97 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            71  97  69  96 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  96  67  94 /  20  20  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           68  95  65  94 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   67  97  65  96 /  20  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                70  96  67  93 /  20  20  30  40
OROGRANDE               70  95  68  95 /  20  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 57  81  54  79 /  40  40  40  50
MESCALERO               54  82  53  80 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                56  81  54  79 /  40  40  40  50
WINSTON                 59  86  57  82 /  30  30  30  60
HILLSBORO               65  94  61  92 /  20  20  30  40
SPACEPORT               68  94  66  93 /  20  20  30  40
LAKE ROBERTS            57  87  56  84 /  30  40  40  60
HURLEY                  64  91  60  89 /  20  20  30  50
CLIFF                   61  92  61  91 /  20  20  20  50
MULE CREEK              58  92  58  92 /  10  20  20  60
FAYWOOD                 64  92  61  89 /  20  20  30  50
ANIMAS                  67  93  66  93 /  20  30  30  50
HACHITA                 67  93  66  93 /  20  20  30  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  89  64  90 /  20  40  40  50
CLOVERDALE              64  88  62  88 /  20  40  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 270921
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND LATER A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THE NEXT THREE DAYS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR OVER A FEW AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
CWA POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MAY MOVE EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT 3 DAYS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

CONCURRENTLY SURFACE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY INCLUDE WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THICKNESS RIDGE AXIS. THIS FEATURE WILL
INDUCE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH
A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND TO THE EAST. IN EITHER CASE
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND/OR GULF OF MEXICO WILL
STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS AT LOW LEVELS. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
INDUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS MOST AREAS WITH FURTHER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN RATHER HIGH MOISTURE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING MOSTLY BETWEEN 1 AND
1.3 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AT LEAST 50 F THROUGH
MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERNOON MUCAPES ALSO EXPECTED AROUND
500 TO 1000 J/KG SO RISK OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH SURFACE
HEATING...UPSLOPE FLOW...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES ACTING TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE MOST ACTIVE DUE TO LIFTING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS
DEEPER MOISTURE INFLOW. HEAVY RAINFALLS AND FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH SEVERAL STORMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT SHIFTS TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH CIRCULATION AROUND IT FAVORING IMPORT
OF WARM DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR AT MID LEVELS. THUS THE CWA SHOULD
DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE STABLE FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS WEEK
WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z.
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM 20Z TO 08Z.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN060 AND WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND LATER A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR OVER A FEW AREAS DURING THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STORMS ALSO PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL. THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                100  74  98  74 /  20  20  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           96  69  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              98  69  96  68 /  20  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              98  69  94  67 /  20  20  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              76  55  73  54 /  40  40  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   96  68  94  69 /  20  20  20  30
SILVER CITY             87  62  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
DEMING                  98  69  96  69 /  10  20  20  30
LORDSBURG               96  67  95  68 /  10  20  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO     101  73  99  73 /  20  20  20  30
DELL CITY              100  71  97  70 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK           100  72  98  72 /  20  20  20  30
LOMA LINDA              95  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  30
FABENS                 100  72  98  71 /  20  20  20  30
SANTA TERESA           100  71  97  71 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          98  70  96  69 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           98  68  95  67 /  20  20  20  30
HATCH                   98  67  97  67 /  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS                98  70  96  69 /  10  20  20  30
OROGRANDE               99  70  95  70 /  20  20  20  30
MAYHILL                 85  60  82  59 /  40  40  40  40
MESCALERO               85  57  83  58 /  40  30  40  40
TIMBERON                84  59  82  59 /  40  40  40  40
WINSTON                 86  60  84  60 /  40  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               94  65  92  64 /  20  20  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            87  58  85  59 /  30  30  40  40
HURLEY                  91  64  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
CLIFF                   94  64  92  64 /  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              93  61  90  62 /  20  10  20  20
FAYWOOD                 92  64  90  64 /  20  20  20  30
ANIMAS                  95  67  93  68 /  20  20  30  30
HACHITA                 95  67  93  68 /  20  20  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          91  65  89  66 /  20  20  40  40
CLOVERDALE              88  64  86  65 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 270921
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND LATER A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THE NEXT THREE DAYS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR OVER A FEW AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
CWA POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MAY MOVE EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT 3 DAYS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

CONCURRENTLY SURFACE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY INCLUDE WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THICKNESS RIDGE AXIS. THIS FEATURE WILL
INDUCE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH
A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND TO THE EAST. IN EITHER CASE
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND/OR GULF OF MEXICO WILL
STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS AT LOW LEVELS. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
INDUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS MOST AREAS WITH FURTHER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN RATHER HIGH MOISTURE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING MOSTLY BETWEEN 1 AND
1.3 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AT LEAST 50 F THROUGH
MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERNOON MUCAPES ALSO EXPECTED AROUND
500 TO 1000 J/KG SO RISK OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH SURFACE
HEATING...UPSLOPE FLOW...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES ACTING TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE MOST ACTIVE DUE TO LIFTING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS
DEEPER MOISTURE INFLOW. HEAVY RAINFALLS AND FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH SEVERAL STORMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT SHIFTS TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH CIRCULATION AROUND IT FAVORING IMPORT
OF WARM DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR AT MID LEVELS. THUS THE CWA SHOULD
DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE STABLE FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS WEEK
WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z.
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM 20Z TO 08Z.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN060 AND WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND LATER A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR OVER A FEW AREAS DURING THIS
TIME WITH A FEW STORMS ALSO PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL. THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                100  74  98  74 /  20  20  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           96  69  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              98  69  96  68 /  20  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              98  69  94  67 /  20  20  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              76  55  73  54 /  40  40  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   96  68  94  69 /  20  20  20  30
SILVER CITY             87  62  85  63 /  20  20  30  30
DEMING                  98  69  96  69 /  10  20  20  30
LORDSBURG               96  67  95  68 /  10  20  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO     101  73  99  73 /  20  20  20  30
DELL CITY              100  71  97  70 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK           100  72  98  72 /  20  20  20  30
LOMA LINDA              95  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  30
FABENS                 100  72  98  71 /  20  20  20  30
SANTA TERESA           100  71  97  71 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          98  70  96  69 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           98  68  95  67 /  20  20  20  30
HATCH                   98  67  97  67 /  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS                98  70  96  69 /  10  20  20  30
OROGRANDE               99  70  95  70 /  20  20  20  30
MAYHILL                 85  60  82  59 /  40  40  40  40
MESCALERO               85  57  83  58 /  40  30  40  40
TIMBERON                84  59  82  59 /  40  40  40  40
WINSTON                 86  60  84  60 /  40  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               94  65  92  64 /  20  20  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            87  58  85  59 /  30  30  40  40
HURLEY                  91  64  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
CLIFF                   94  64  92  64 /  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              93  61  90  62 /  20  10  20  20
FAYWOOD                 92  64  90  64 /  20  20  20  30
ANIMAS                  95  67  93  68 /  20  20  30  30
HACHITA                 95  67  93  68 /  20  20  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          91  65  89  66 /  20  20  40  40
CLOVERDALE              88  64  86  65 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262033
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND REDUCE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY
WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE LOWLANDS HAVE BEEN QUIET SO FAR.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE PRODUCING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
IS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR OVER THE AREA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DIFFUSE PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE AREA
FROM SOUTH AT THE 700-600 MB LEVEL...UNDER A PERSISTENT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
BUT ONLY A LITTLE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE A FAIRLY NORMAL
PATTERN OF SUMMERTIME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY OVERALL
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REFORMS MORE OVER UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS CHANGE IN
FLOW PATTERNS WILL DISRUPT THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FORCE IT
MUCH FURTHER WEST. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL FLOW WILL TAKE ITS
PLACE AND REDUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIDED BY MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED MORE OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...RESULTING IN A NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN
WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...WITH A A FEW BRIEF STORMS OVER THE
LOWLANDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 THRU MUCH OF PD. ISOLD LOWLAND
AND SCT MTN VRB25G40KT 1-3SM BKN040-060 THRU 06Z AND AGAIN AFT 18Z.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO SW AOB 12KTS.

$$

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER HIGH WILL START OUT THE WEEK CENTERED AROUND
OKLAHOMA WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER AREA. MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL
REMAIN OVER FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. GOING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75 100  74  98 /  20  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           70  96  69  93 /  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              70  98  69  96 /  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              70  98  69  94 /  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              52  76  55  73 /  30  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  96  68  94 /  20  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             63  87  62  85 /  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  70  98  69  96 /  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               67  96  67  95 /  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74 101  73  99 /  20  20  20  20
DELL CITY               72 100  71  97 /  10  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            73 100  72  98 /  20  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              70  95  69  92 /  20  20  20  20
FABENS                  73 100  72  98 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA TERESA            72 100  71  97 /  20  20  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  98  70  96 /  20  20  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           69  98  68  95 /  20  20  20  20
HATCH                   68  98  67  97 /  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                70  98  70  96 /  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               72  99  70  95 /  20  20  20  20
MAYHILL                 58  85  60  82 /  30  30  40  40
MESCALERO               57  85  57  83 /  30  40  30  40
TIMBERON                58  84  59  82 /  20  30  40  40
WINSTON                 60  86  60  84 /  30  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               66  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               69  96  68  94 /  30  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            58  87  58  85 /  30  30  30  30
HURLEY                  64  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20
CLIFF                   64  94  64  92 /  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              61  93  61  90 /  20  20  10  20
FAYWOOD                 65  92  64  90 /  20  20  20  20
ANIMAS                  67  95  67  93 /  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 68  95  67  93 /  20  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  91  65  89 /  30  20  20  30
CLOVERDALE              63  88  64  86 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262033
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND REDUCE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY
WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE LOWLANDS HAVE BEEN QUIET SO FAR.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE PRODUCING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
IS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR OVER THE AREA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DIFFUSE PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE AREA
FROM SOUTH AT THE 700-600 MB LEVEL...UNDER A PERSISTENT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
BUT ONLY A LITTLE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE A FAIRLY NORMAL
PATTERN OF SUMMERTIME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY OVERALL
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REFORMS MORE OVER UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS CHANGE IN
FLOW PATTERNS WILL DISRUPT THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FORCE IT
MUCH FURTHER WEST. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL FLOW WILL TAKE ITS
PLACE AND REDUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIDED BY MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED MORE OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...RESULTING IN A NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN
WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...WITH A A FEW BRIEF STORMS OVER THE
LOWLANDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 THRU MUCH OF PD. ISOLD LOWLAND
AND SCT MTN VRB25G40KT 1-3SM BKN040-060 THRU 06Z AND AGAIN AFT 18Z.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO SW AOB 12KTS.

$$

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER HIGH WILL START OUT THE WEEK CENTERED AROUND
OKLAHOMA WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER AREA. MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL
REMAIN OVER FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. GOING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75 100  74  98 /  20  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           70  96  69  93 /  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              70  98  69  96 /  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              70  98  69  94 /  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              52  76  55  73 /  30  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  96  68  94 /  20  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             63  87  62  85 /  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  70  98  69  96 /  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               67  96  67  95 /  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74 101  73  99 /  20  20  20  20
DELL CITY               72 100  71  97 /  10  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            73 100  72  98 /  20  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              70  95  69  92 /  20  20  20  20
FABENS                  73 100  72  98 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA TERESA            72 100  71  97 /  20  20  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  98  70  96 /  20  20  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           69  98  68  95 /  20  20  20  20
HATCH                   68  98  67  97 /  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                70  98  70  96 /  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               72  99  70  95 /  20  20  20  20
MAYHILL                 58  85  60  82 /  30  30  40  40
MESCALERO               57  85  57  83 /  30  40  30  40
TIMBERON                58  84  59  82 /  20  30  40  40
WINSTON                 60  86  60  84 /  30  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               66  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               69  96  68  94 /  30  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            58  87  58  85 /  30  30  30  30
HURLEY                  64  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20
CLIFF                   64  94  64  92 /  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              61  93  61  90 /  20  20  10  20
FAYWOOD                 65  92  64  90 /  20  20  20  20
ANIMAS                  67  95  67  93 /  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 68  95  67  93 /  20  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  91  65  89 /  30  20  20  30
CLOVERDALE              63  88  64  86 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ





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