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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
BORDERLAND TODAY LEAVING BEHIND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP TO CLOSE TO NORMAL
VALUES. AS DAY TIME HEATING OCCURS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE ALMOST OUT OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LEFT BEHIND IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE. AT THE MOMENT KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR FOG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER OVER NIGHT
TEMPERATURES HAS INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR FOG AND GRIDS MAY NEED
TO BE UPDATED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS OVER...THE BORDERLAND COULD
STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS EACH DAY COULD IGNITE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO FLOOD LOW-LAYING
AREAS. ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OVER THE AREA
AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. THEN ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL.

AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT TRACKS
WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION...BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/06Z - 20/06Z
STARTING THE MORNING OUT WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AS FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. THIS
MORNING CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT SHOULD RUN BKN020-040 AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE
MIXED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BACK DOWN BRIEFLY
TO IFR LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE LAST REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY LEAVING BEHIND IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE....THUS VERY FEW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN HIGH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH TO FLOOD LOW-LAYING AREAS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 60 IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SETS IN AND CLOUDS
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FURTHER INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT TRACKS
WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  68  87  68  87 /  30  20  10  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           78  64  81  63  81 /  40  30  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              81  65  84  65  84 /  30  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              82  64  87  64  87 /  50  30  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              62  48  66  47  62 /  60  40  40  30  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  65  84  64  84 /  30  20  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             77  61  80  61  81 /  40  30  30  30  30
DEMING                  82  63  85  64  85 /  40  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               82  64  86  64  85 /  40  20  30  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  68  86  69  86 /  30  20  10  20  20
DELL CITY               83  64  87  64  87 /  40  30  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            84  68  89  68  89 /  30  20  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              76  65  79  64  79 /  30  20  10  20  20
FABENS                  84  66  89  65  89 /  30  20  10  20  20
SANTA TERESA            81  66  85  66  85 /  30  20  10  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  65  82  65  84 /  30  20  10  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           80  62  84  61  84 /  30  20  20  20  20
HATCH                   79  63  83  62  83 /  30  20  10  20  20
COLUMBUS                82  64  84  64  84 /  30  20  10  20  20
OROGRANDE               82  66  84  66  84 /  40  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 69  55  74  53  72 /  60  50  30  30  40
MESCALERO               71  56  75  54  73 /  60  40  30  30  40
TIMBERON                69  54  73  52  71 /  60  40  30  30  40
WINSTON                 72  57  75  55  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               76  61  79  60  79 /  40  20  10  30  20
SPACEPORT               79  63  83  62  83 /  30  20  10  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            78  57  81  55  81 /  40  30  30  30  30
HURLEY                  79  62  82  61  81 /  40  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   79  57  83  57  83 /  40  20  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              78  53  81  52  81 /  30  30  30  30  40
FAYWOOD                 78  62  81  61  81 /  40  30  20  30  20
ANIMAS                  82  64  85  64  85 /  30  30  30  30  20
HACHITA                 83  62  86  62  86 /  40  20  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  62  86  61  86 /  30  20  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              79  61  83  59  83 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NMZ414>417.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/PAZOS







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
BORDERLAND TODAY LEAVING BEHIND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP TO CLOSE TO NORMAL
VALUES. AS DAY TIME HEATING OCCURS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE ALMOST OUT OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LEFT BEHIND IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE. AT THE MOMENT KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR FOG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER OVER NIGHT
TEMPERATURES HAS INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR FOG AND GRIDS MAY NEED
TO BE UPDATED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS OVER...THE BORDERLAND COULD
STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS EACH DAY COULD IGNITE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO FLOOD LOW-LAYING
AREAS. ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OVER THE AREA
AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. THEN ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL.

AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT TRACKS
WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION...BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/06Z - 20/06Z
STARTING THE MORNING OUT WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AS FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. THIS
MORNING CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT SHOULD RUN BKN020-040 AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE
MIXED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BACK DOWN BRIEFLY
TO IFR LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE LAST REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY LEAVING BEHIND IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE....THUS VERY FEW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN HIGH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH TO FLOOD LOW-LAYING AREAS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 60 IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SETS IN AND CLOUDS
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FURTHER INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT TRACKS
WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  68  87  68  87 /  30  20  10  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           78  64  81  63  81 /  40  30  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              81  65  84  65  84 /  30  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              82  64  87  64  87 /  50  30  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              62  48  66  47  62 /  60  40  40  30  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  65  84  64  84 /  30  20  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             77  61  80  61  81 /  40  30  30  30  30
DEMING                  82  63  85  64  85 /  40  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               82  64  86  64  85 /  40  20  30  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  68  86  69  86 /  30  20  10  20  20
DELL CITY               83  64  87  64  87 /  40  30  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            84  68  89  68  89 /  30  20  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              76  65  79  64  79 /  30  20  10  20  20
FABENS                  84  66  89  65  89 /  30  20  10  20  20
SANTA TERESA            81  66  85  66  85 /  30  20  10  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  65  82  65  84 /  30  20  10  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           80  62  84  61  84 /  30  20  20  20  20
HATCH                   79  63  83  62  83 /  30  20  10  20  20
COLUMBUS                82  64  84  64  84 /  30  20  10  20  20
OROGRANDE               82  66  84  66  84 /  40  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 69  55  74  53  72 /  60  50  30  30  40
MESCALERO               71  56  75  54  73 /  60  40  30  30  40
TIMBERON                69  54  73  52  71 /  60  40  30  30  40
WINSTON                 72  57  75  55  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               76  61  79  60  79 /  40  20  10  30  20
SPACEPORT               79  63  83  62  83 /  30  20  10  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            78  57  81  55  81 /  40  30  30  30  30
HURLEY                  79  62  82  61  81 /  40  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   79  57  83  57  83 /  40  20  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              78  53  81  52  81 /  30  30  30  30  40
FAYWOOD                 78  62  81  61  81 /  40  30  20  30  20
ANIMAS                  82  64  85  64  85 /  30  30  30  30  20
HACHITA                 83  62  86  62  86 /  40  20  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  62  86  61  86 /  30  20  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              79  61  83  59  83 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NMZ414>417.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/PAZOS






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182134
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
334 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BY MORNING.
AS THE ODILE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP BACK TO
A MORE NORMAL TYPE OF COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THE SHOWERS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND SHORTER IN DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK
UP TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE TRACK EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE PAST 3 DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH STARTING FROM THE WEST AND PROGRESSING
TO THE EAST BY MORNING.

THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE HAVE A HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROUND SATURATED MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RUNOFF. FLOODING OF
ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS WILL ALSO OCCUR. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS STAYING IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...ODILE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...TAKING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IT. CONSIDERABLE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA THAT COULD FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS.  WITH CLOUD COVER BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP TO NEAR NORMALS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY THAT COULD POSSIBLY
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF EL PASO.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE
THAT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY FLUSH MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED LATER NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z - 20/00Z...
PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING THROUGH REGION.
EXPECT SCT-BKN015-025 BKN040-050 THRU AT LEAST 06Z WITH ISOLD TO SCT
1-3SM +TSRA BKN010. AFT 06Z AREAS EAST OF RIO GRANDE COULD CONTINUE
TO SEE SCT -SHRA BKN015-025 OTHERWISE SCT025 SCT-BKN040-050 BKN100.
AFT 18Z BKN040-050 WITH SCT 3SM TSRA BKN030 ALL TERMINALS. N TO NE
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE W TO NW UNDER
12KTS BY 06Z AND CONTINUE THRU 20/00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR UPCOMING WEEK WITH
HIGH DEW POINTS AND ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EXIT THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONCERN BUT MAY HAVE SOME WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES BREEZY WINDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL STARTING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  84  67  87  68 /  70  20  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           62  79  63  81  63 /  70  30  30  20  20
LAS CRUCES              64  82  64  84  65 /  70  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              64  83  63  87  64 /  80  50  30  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              49  63  47  67  47 / 100  60  40  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  82  64  84  64 /  70  30  20  10  20
SILVER CITY             59  78  60  80  61 /  70  40  30  30  30
DEMING                  62  83  62  85  64 /  70  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               62  83  63  86  64 /  60  20  20  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  83  67  86  69 /  70  20  20  10  20
DELL CITY               63  84  63  87  64 /  80  40  30  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            66  85  67  89  68 /  70  30  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              63  77  64  79  64 /  80  20  20  10  20
FABENS                  66  85  65  89  65 /  70  30  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            66  82  65  85  66 /  70  20  20  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  81  64  82  65 /  70  20  20  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           61  81  61  84  61 /  70  30  20  20  20
HATCH                   61  80  62  83  62 /  70  30  20  10  20
COLUMBUS                64  83  63  84  64 /  70  20  20  10  20
OROGRANDE               65  83  65  84  66 /  80  30  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 55  70  54  74  53 / 100  60  50  30  30
MESCALERO               55  72  55  75  54 / 100  60  40  30  30
TIMBERON                54  70  53  73  52 / 100  60  40  30  30
WINSTON                 56  73  56  75  55 /  80  40  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               60  77  60  79  60 /  70  40  20  10  30
SPACEPORT               61  80  62  83  62 /  80  30  20  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            57  79  56  81  55 /  70  40  30  30  30
HURLEY                  61  80  61  82  61 /  70  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   56  80  56  83  57 /  70  30  20  30  30
MULE CREEK              52  79  52  81  52 /  70  30  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 61  79  61  81  61 /  70  30  30  20  30
ANIMAS                  63  83  63  85  64 /  60  20  30  30  30
HACHITA                 61  84  61  86  62 /  60  20  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  82  61  86  61 /  60  30  20  30  30
CLOVERDALE              60  80  60  83  59 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>413.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ414>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181014
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
414 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE HURRICANE
ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND THAT WILL
HELP FUEL MORE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ACROSS THE AREA. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. BY FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST...WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL DIMINISH. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PARTS OF EAST EL PASO TOOK A DIRECT HIGH FROM SOME OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ISOLATED 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH A LARGE AREA OF 1 TO 2
INCHES. UNFORTUNATELY THE ACTUAL REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE STILL TO
OUR WEST SO THAT MEANS THE THREAT FOR MORE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. ALL THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS AND WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WE WILL SEE MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SINCE THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM IS FURTHER SOUTH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
GILA WATER SHED HAS DIMINISHED SO THE RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
GILA RIVER WILL BE CANCELED.

BY FRIDAY THE REMNANT LOW OF ODILE WILL BE MOVING TO OUR
EAST...IN ITS WAKE WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE TO HELP FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MOISTURE IS NOT EVER PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THAT WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND AT THE SAME TIME IT WILL HELP BRING IN
SOME EXTRA MOISTURE. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME WIDE
SPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THINGS IN
THE ISOLATED CATEGORY AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT ROUND OF
MODELS BRINGS. AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CONTINUE 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN ON FRIDAY OUR HIGHS
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/12Z=19/12Z
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ON THE WAY FOR TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP FUEL MORE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY. CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND BKN050 FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD
SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IFR OR EVEN LIFR IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM
EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTION WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION FROM THE WEST TO EAST MORE TO SOUTH TO NORTH AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST...BUT WE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AND WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY GOOD RH RECOVERIES EACH DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 81  68  84  67  87 /  90  70  30  30  10
SIERRA BLANCA           77  62  79  65  81 /  80  70  30  30  10
LAS CRUCES              76  64  82  64  84 /  90  70  30  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              77  64  83  64  87 / 100  80  40  30  10
CLOUDCROFT              57  49  63  47  66 / 100 100  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  63  82  64  84 / 100  70  30  20  10
SILVER CITY             68  59  78  60  80 / 100  70  40  20  30
DEMING                  77  62  83  62  85 / 100  70  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               73  62  83  62  86 / 100  70  30  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      81  67  83  67  86 /  90  70  30  30  10
DELL CITY               81  63  84  64  87 /  90  70  40  30  10
FORT HANCOCK            83  66  85  68  89 /  80  70  30  20  10
LOMA LINDA              74  63  77  64  79 /  90  70  30  30  10
FABENS                  81  66  85  66  89 /  90  70  30  30  10
SANTA TERESA            80  66  82  65  85 /  90  70  30  30  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  64  81  64  82 / 100  70  30  30  10
JORNADA RANGE           77  61  81  61  84 /  90  70  30  30  20
HATCH                   75  61  80  62  83 / 100  70  30  20  10
COLUMBUS                79  64  83  64  84 /  90  70  30  30  10
OROGRANDE               76  65  83  65  84 / 100  80  30  30  10
MAYHILL                 65  55  70  54  74 / 100 100  50  40  30
MESCALERO               66  55  72  55  75 / 100 100  50  40  30
TIMBERON                65  54  70  53  73 / 100  90  40  40  30
WINSTON                 65  56  73  56  75 / 100  80  40  30  30
HILLSBORO               69  60  77  60  79 / 100  70  40  20  10
SPACEPORT               74  61  80  62  83 / 100  80  30  30  10
LAKE ROBERTS            68  57  79  56  81 / 100  70  40  30  30
HURLEY                  70  61  80  61  82 / 100  70  30  30  30
CLIFF                   70  56  80  54  83 / 100  70  40  30  30
MULE CREEK              68  52  79  51  81 / 100  70  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 70  61  79  61  81 / 100  70  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  76  63  83  63  85 / 100  60  30  30  30
HACHITA                 77  61  84  62  86 / 100  70  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          79  60  82  61  86 / 100  60  30  30  20
CLOVERDALE              74  60  80  59  83 / 100  60  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>413.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ414>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172141
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HEAVY RAIN WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
MOUNTAIN REGIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
REGION HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED TWO NIGHTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE APPROACHED THE AREA. NOW THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND IS ON A EAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY
TOMORROW MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE WILL
FUEL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

ODILE`S TRACK WILL TAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER THE GILA REGION BY
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MAY GET AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH GRANT...SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY
SEEING THAT THE HIGHER END OF THOSE RAIN ESTIMATES. AREAS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INCLUDING FAR WEST TEXAS WILL SEE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN
ESTIMATES ASIDE...THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...SO MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME RUN OFF QUITE QUICKLY
WITH LITTLE ABSORPTION BY THE GROUND. THERE IS A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BURN SCARS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND
POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS IN THE GILA REGION WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN THE GILA RIVER. THE GILA
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT GILA...REDROCK AND
VIRDEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD PEAK AND BEGIN
TO DROP BY LATE EVENING AFTER THE RAINS LIGHTEN UP.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH HEAVY RAINS TAPERING OFF AND DIMINISHING. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS...THAT WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND BLOCKS ANY MECHANISM
FOR PUSHING OUT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND MAY HELP
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD PLAY A
STABILIZING ROLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE EXPECTING
THE HIGH ALOFT TO REFORM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
HELP FLUSH MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
DRIER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.


&&

AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z - 19/00Z...
THE CORE COMPRISING THE REMNANTS OF NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM THIS
EVENING FROM SE AZ.  THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLD -TSRA/VIS 3SM/CIGS 020-040 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTSIDE STORMS EXPECT LGT TURBC AND CLOUDS FEW005-015 SCT-BKN020-040
OVC050-080 THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHWRS WILL LWR VSBY TO 3-5SM.  CIGS
TO 005 NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN OBSCURATIONS
OVER GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MTNS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH 11Z...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 7-11 KTS ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GILA RIVER WILL GO INTO EFFECT 6 AM MDT
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN VALID THROUGH 6 PM MDT FRIDAY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...

REMNANTS OF NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE...WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM THIS EVENING FROM SE AZ AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW.  THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MAINLY SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING.  BULK OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT THE GILA REGION FROM
ROUGHLY 5 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 5 PM THURSDAY....WITH UP TO 2-3 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...AS DISTURBANCE
EXITS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO START
CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF ODILE REMNANTS HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS ALL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WEEKEND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE OF A NORMAL MONSOONAL PATTERN.  HOWEVER
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS RELATIVELY DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR INTO NM FROM THE NORTHEAST.

LATER NEXT WEEK...A MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES.  DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOULD PREVENT KEEP DEEP MOISTURE AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  82  68  86  68 /  90  90  50  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           63  78  62  81  66 /  70  80  40  30  30
LAS CRUCES              63  77  64  84  65 / 100  90  50  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              64  78  64  85  65 / 100 100  80  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              49  58  49  65  48 / 100 100 100  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  75  63  84  65 / 100 100  70  20  20
SILVER CITY             59  69  59  80  61 / 100 100  70  30  20
DEMING                  63  78  62  85  63 / 100  90  50  20  30
LORDSBURG               64  74  62  85  63 / 100  90  60  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  82  67  85  68 /  90  90  50  30  30
DELL CITY               64  82  63  86  65 /  70  80  60  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            66  84  66  87  69 /  70  80  40  30  20
LOMA LINDA              61  75  63  79  65 /  90  90  50  30  30
FABENS                  66  82  66  87  67 /  90  90  50  30  30
SANTA TERESA            65  81  66  84  66 /  90  90  40  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  78  64  83  65 / 100 100  60  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           61  78  61  83  62 / 100  90  60  30  30
HATCH                   63  76  61  82  63 / 100 100  60  20  20
COLUMBUS                65  80  64  85  65 / 100  80  50  20  30
OROGRANDE               65  77  65  85  66 /  90 100  70  30  30
MAYHILL                 53  66  55  72  55 / 100 100 100  50  40
MESCALERO               55  67  55  74  56 / 100 100 100  50  40
TIMBERON                52  66  54  72  54 / 100 100  90  40  40
WINSTON                 55  66  56  75  57 / 100 100  80  40  30
HILLSBORO               59  70  60  79  61 / 100 100  70  30  20
SPACEPORT               61  75  61  82  63 / 100 100  70  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            55  69  57  81  57 / 100 100  70  40  30
HURLEY                  61  71  61  82  62 / 100 100  70  20  30
CLIFF                   56  71  56  82  55 / 100 100  70  40  30
MULE CREEK              55  69  52  81  52 / 100 100  70  30  30
FAYWOOD                 60  71  61  81  62 / 100 100  70  20  30
ANIMAS                  64  77  63  85  64 / 100  80  60  30  30
HACHITA                 61  78  61  86  63 / 100  80  60  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  80  60  84  62 / 100  80  50  30  30
CLOVERDALE              59  75  60  82  60 / 100  80  60  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

FLOOD WATCH FOR POTENTIAL GILA RIVER FLOODING FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ401-402-404.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172141
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HEAVY RAIN WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
MOUNTAIN REGIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
REGION HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED TWO NIGHTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE APPROACHED THE AREA. NOW THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND IS ON A EAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY
TOMORROW MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE WILL
FUEL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

ODILE`S TRACK WILL TAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER THE GILA REGION BY
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MAY GET AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH GRANT...SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY
SEEING THAT THE HIGHER END OF THOSE RAIN ESTIMATES. AREAS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INCLUDING FAR WEST TEXAS WILL SEE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN
ESTIMATES ASIDE...THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...SO MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME RUN OFF QUITE QUICKLY
WITH LITTLE ABSORPTION BY THE GROUND. THERE IS A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BURN SCARS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND
POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS IN THE GILA REGION WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN THE GILA RIVER. THE GILA
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT GILA...REDROCK AND
VIRDEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD PEAK AND BEGIN
TO DROP BY LATE EVENING AFTER THE RAINS LIGHTEN UP.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH HEAVY RAINS TAPERING OFF AND DIMINISHING. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS...THAT WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND BLOCKS ANY MECHANISM
FOR PUSHING OUT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND MAY HELP
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD PLAY A
STABILIZING ROLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE EXPECTING
THE HIGH ALOFT TO REFORM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
HELP FLUSH MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
DRIER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.


&&

AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z - 19/00Z...
THE CORE COMPRISING THE REMNANTS OF NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM THIS
EVENING FROM SE AZ.  THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLD -TSRA/VIS 3SM/CIGS 020-040 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTSIDE STORMS EXPECT LGT TURBC AND CLOUDS FEW005-015 SCT-BKN020-040
OVC050-080 THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHWRS WILL LWR VSBY TO 3-5SM.  CIGS
TO 005 NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN OBSCURATIONS
OVER GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MTNS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH 11Z...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 7-11 KTS ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GILA RIVER WILL GO INTO EFFECT 6 AM MDT
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN VALID THROUGH 6 PM MDT FRIDAY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...

REMNANTS OF NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE...WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM THIS EVENING FROM SE AZ AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW.  THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MAINLY SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING.  BULK OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT THE GILA REGION FROM
ROUGHLY 5 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 5 PM THURSDAY....WITH UP TO 2-3 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...AS DISTURBANCE
EXITS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO START
CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF ODILE REMNANTS HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS ALL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WEEKEND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE OF A NORMAL MONSOONAL PATTERN.  HOWEVER
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS RELATIVELY DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR INTO NM FROM THE NORTHEAST.

LATER NEXT WEEK...A MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES.  DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOULD PREVENT KEEP DEEP MOISTURE AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  82  68  86  68 /  90  90  50  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           63  78  62  81  66 /  70  80  40  30  30
LAS CRUCES              63  77  64  84  65 / 100  90  50  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              64  78  64  85  65 / 100 100  80  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              49  58  49  65  48 / 100 100 100  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  75  63  84  65 / 100 100  70  20  20
SILVER CITY             59  69  59  80  61 / 100 100  70  30  20
DEMING                  63  78  62  85  63 / 100  90  50  20  30
LORDSBURG               64  74  62  85  63 / 100  90  60  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  82  67  85  68 /  90  90  50  30  30
DELL CITY               64  82  63  86  65 /  70  80  60  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            66  84  66  87  69 /  70  80  40  30  20
LOMA LINDA              61  75  63  79  65 /  90  90  50  30  30
FABENS                  66  82  66  87  67 /  90  90  50  30  30
SANTA TERESA            65  81  66  84  66 /  90  90  40  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  78  64  83  65 / 100 100  60  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           61  78  61  83  62 / 100  90  60  30  30
HATCH                   63  76  61  82  63 / 100 100  60  20  20
COLUMBUS                65  80  64  85  65 / 100  80  50  20  30
OROGRANDE               65  77  65  85  66 /  90 100  70  30  30
MAYHILL                 53  66  55  72  55 / 100 100 100  50  40
MESCALERO               55  67  55  74  56 / 100 100 100  50  40
TIMBERON                52  66  54  72  54 / 100 100  90  40  40
WINSTON                 55  66  56  75  57 / 100 100  80  40  30
HILLSBORO               59  70  60  79  61 / 100 100  70  30  20
SPACEPORT               61  75  61  82  63 / 100 100  70  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            55  69  57  81  57 / 100 100  70  40  30
HURLEY                  61  71  61  82  62 / 100 100  70  20  30
CLIFF                   56  71  56  82  55 / 100 100  70  40  30
MULE CREEK              55  69  52  81  52 / 100 100  70  30  30
FAYWOOD                 60  71  61  81  62 / 100 100  70  20  30
ANIMAS                  64  77  63  85  64 / 100  80  60  30  30
HACHITA                 61  78  61  86  63 / 100  80  60  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  80  60  84  62 / 100  80  50  30  30
CLOVERDALE              59  75  60  82  60 / 100  80  60  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

FLOOD WATCH FOR POTENTIAL GILA RIVER FLOODING FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ401-402-404.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 170923
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERNIGHT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER BAND OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE SLOWLY MOVED NORTH ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. TODAY MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IN A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH SOME
STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING ALSO INCREASING IN LIKELY HOOD TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE GILA REGION. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD
SHOT AT WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS RAIN. SOME OF IT COULD BE VERY
HEAVY WITH FLASH FLOOD RESULTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION...HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK TO KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL UNDER THE GUN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
AS FORMER HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO TRACK AS FORECAST TOWARD
TUCSON. THE EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS IN PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT BUT DISPLACED A BIT WEST OF MONDAY NIGHT`S RAIN PATH.
ALL AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ARE GETTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RAIN...BUT EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES HAVE BEEN LEFT
OUT AS OF 3AM. LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE
PROBABILITY OF THOSE COUNTIES GETTING MUCH DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING IS MINIMAL. DRY SLOTTING IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE STORM AND THE BAND IS TRACKING NORTH WITH
LITTLE ADDITION DEVELOPMENT SOUTH.

HOWEVER TODAY WE STAND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DRY SLOT. POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
A BIT OF SUNSHINE IS BETTER AND SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PW`S STILL ABOVE 1.6"...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE QUICK TO
DESTABILIZE EVEN ABSENT OF ANY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE.
THUS WE KEEP THE POPS UP DESPITE THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE LATEST
BAND AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.

LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY...WE MIGHT SEE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. NIGHT LIKE THE LAST TWO WE EXPECT
ANOTHER UP-TIC IN RAIN CHANCES...THUS POPS IN THE 70-100% PROBABILITY
ARE COMMON AND STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
EAST...2-4" CENTRAL...3-5" WESTERN LOWLANDS...4-6" AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE PCPN AMOUNT ACROSS THE
REGION AND GREATER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-9" OVER LOCAL AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AREAS MTNS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. OF SPECIAL NOTE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WON`T TOTALLY DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS SO WE`LL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW A BACKDOOR FRONT TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD RAMP UP OUR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER A DOWN-TICK
DAY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO CRAWL UP THE BAJA...MUCH LIKE NORBERT DID. IT COULD
GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LIKELY HOOD IS THAT IT WILL TURN OUT TO SEA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/12Z - 18/12Z...
IMPULSES ROTATING SLOWLY UP AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE...WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NM / WEST TX THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWLAND CLDS SCT 010-020 BKN-OVC CIGS TO 030-050
AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA. CIGS TO 005
NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS. LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH PD. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM ENE-SE AROUND 06-09 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING TRACK OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FEATURE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT INITIALLY HEADS NORTH
EAST INTO ARIZONA...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY EVENING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. A BIT DRIER FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH PRESSING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  68  82  69  87 /  60  80  80  50  30
SIERRA BLANCA           82  63  78  62  82 /  50  70  80  40  30
LAS CRUCES              82  65  77  66  85 /  60  90  80  50  20
ALAMOGORDO              81  64  78  65  86 /  80 100 100  80  30
CLOUDCROFT              58  49  58  49  66 / 100 100 100 100  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  64  75  65  85 /  80 100  90  60  20
SILVER CITY             76  60  69  60  81 / 100 100  90  70  30
DEMING                  83  64  78  64  86 /  80  90  70  50  20
LORDSBURG               83  65  74  64  86 / 100 100  70  60  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      83  68  82  68  86 /  60  80  80  50  30
DELL CITY               86  65  82  64  87 /  80  70  80  60  40
FORT HANCOCK            87  67  84  67  88 /  50  70  80  40  30
LOMA LINDA              78  62  75  64  80 /  60  80  80  50  30
FABENS                  85  66  82  67  88 /  50  80  80  50  30
SANTA TERESA            82  66  81  67  85 /  60  90  80  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  65  78  66  84 /  70  90  90  60  30
JORNADA RANGE           81  62  78  61  84 /  70  90  90  60  30
HATCH                   79  64  76  63  83 /  80 100  90  50  20
COLUMBUS                82  65  80  66  86 /  60  90  70  50  20
OROGRANDE               80  66  77  66  86 /  70  90  90  70  30
MAYHILL                 68  54  66  55  73 /  90 100 100 100  50
MESCALERO               68  55  67  56  75 /  90 100 100 100  50
TIMBERON                68  52  66  54  73 / 100 100 100  90  40
WINSTON                 70  55  66  58  76 / 100 100 100  70  40
HILLSBORO               76  59  70  62  80 / 100 100  90  70  30
SPACEPORT               78  63  75  63  83 /  80 100  90  60  20
LAKE ROBERTS            74  55  69  58  82 / 100 100 100  70  40
HURLEY                  79  61  71  63  83 / 100 100  80  70  20
CLIFF                   77  54  71  54  83 / 100 100  80  70  40
MULE CREEK              76  51  69  53  82 / 100 100  90  70  30
FAYWOOD                 78  61  71  63  82 / 100 100  80  70  20
ANIMAS                  81  66  77  65  86 /  70 100  70  60  30
HACHITA                 83  62  78  62  87 /  70 100  70  60  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  62  80  61  85 /  70  90  60  50  30
CLOVERDALE              81  59  75  62  83 /  70 100  70  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/99






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 170923
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERNIGHT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER BAND OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE SLOWLY MOVED NORTH ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. TODAY MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IN A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH SOME
STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING ALSO INCREASING IN LIKELY HOOD TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE GILA REGION. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD
SHOT AT WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS RAIN. SOME OF IT COULD BE VERY
HEAVY WITH FLASH FLOOD RESULTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION...HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK TO KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL UNDER THE GUN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
AS FORMER HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO TRACK AS FORECAST TOWARD
TUCSON. THE EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS IN PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT BUT DISPLACED A BIT WEST OF MONDAY NIGHT`S RAIN PATH.
ALL AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ARE GETTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RAIN...BUT EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES HAVE BEEN LEFT
OUT AS OF 3AM. LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE
PROBABILITY OF THOSE COUNTIES GETTING MUCH DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING IS MINIMAL. DRY SLOTTING IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE STORM AND THE BAND IS TRACKING NORTH WITH
LITTLE ADDITION DEVELOPMENT SOUTH.

HOWEVER TODAY WE STAND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DRY SLOT. POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
A BIT OF SUNSHINE IS BETTER AND SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PW`S STILL ABOVE 1.6"...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE QUICK TO
DESTABILIZE EVEN ABSENT OF ANY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE.
THUS WE KEEP THE POPS UP DESPITE THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE LATEST
BAND AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.

LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY...WE MIGHT SEE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. NIGHT LIKE THE LAST TWO WE EXPECT
ANOTHER UP-TIC IN RAIN CHANCES...THUS POPS IN THE 70-100% PROBABILITY
ARE COMMON AND STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
EAST...2-4" CENTRAL...3-5" WESTERN LOWLANDS...4-6" AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE PCPN AMOUNT ACROSS THE
REGION AND GREATER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-9" OVER LOCAL AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AREAS MTNS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. OF SPECIAL NOTE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WON`T TOTALLY DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS SO WE`LL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW A BACKDOOR FRONT TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD RAMP UP OUR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER A DOWN-TICK
DAY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO CRAWL UP THE BAJA...MUCH LIKE NORBERT DID. IT COULD
GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LIKELY HOOD IS THAT IT WILL TURN OUT TO SEA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/12Z - 18/12Z...
IMPULSES ROTATING SLOWLY UP AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE...WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NM / WEST TX THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWLAND CLDS SCT 010-020 BKN-OVC CIGS TO 030-050
AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA. CIGS TO 005
NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS. LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH PD. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM ENE-SE AROUND 06-09 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING TRACK OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FEATURE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT INITIALLY HEADS NORTH
EAST INTO ARIZONA...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY EVENING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. A BIT DRIER FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH PRESSING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  68  82  69  87 /  60  80  80  50  30
SIERRA BLANCA           82  63  78  62  82 /  50  70  80  40  30
LAS CRUCES              82  65  77  66  85 /  60  90  80  50  20
ALAMOGORDO              81  64  78  65  86 /  80 100 100  80  30
CLOUDCROFT              58  49  58  49  66 / 100 100 100 100  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  64  75  65  85 /  80 100  90  60  20
SILVER CITY             76  60  69  60  81 / 100 100  90  70  30
DEMING                  83  64  78  64  86 /  80  90  70  50  20
LORDSBURG               83  65  74  64  86 / 100 100  70  60  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      83  68  82  68  86 /  60  80  80  50  30
DELL CITY               86  65  82  64  87 /  80  70  80  60  40
FORT HANCOCK            87  67  84  67  88 /  50  70  80  40  30
LOMA LINDA              78  62  75  64  80 /  60  80  80  50  30
FABENS                  85  66  82  67  88 /  50  80  80  50  30
SANTA TERESA            82  66  81  67  85 /  60  90  80  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  65  78  66  84 /  70  90  90  60  30
JORNADA RANGE           81  62  78  61  84 /  70  90  90  60  30
HATCH                   79  64  76  63  83 /  80 100  90  50  20
COLUMBUS                82  65  80  66  86 /  60  90  70  50  20
OROGRANDE               80  66  77  66  86 /  70  90  90  70  30
MAYHILL                 68  54  66  55  73 /  90 100 100 100  50
MESCALERO               68  55  67  56  75 /  90 100 100 100  50
TIMBERON                68  52  66  54  73 / 100 100 100  90  40
WINSTON                 70  55  66  58  76 / 100 100 100  70  40
HILLSBORO               76  59  70  62  80 / 100 100  90  70  30
SPACEPORT               78  63  75  63  83 /  80 100  90  60  20
LAKE ROBERTS            74  55  69  58  82 / 100 100 100  70  40
HURLEY                  79  61  71  63  83 / 100 100  80  70  20
CLIFF                   77  54  71  54  83 / 100 100  80  70  40
MULE CREEK              76  51  69  53  82 / 100 100  90  70  30
FAYWOOD                 78  61  71  63  82 / 100 100  80  70  20
ANIMAS                  81  66  77  65  86 /  70 100  70  60  30
HACHITA                 83  62  78  62  87 /  70 100  70  60  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  62  80  61  85 /  70  90  60  50  30
CLOVERDALE              81  59  75  62  83 /  70 100  70  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/99







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BORDERLAND IS CERTAIN TO GET MORE RAIN...AND A LOT OF
IT...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. FLASH
FLOODING...SOME OF IT SERIOUS IS EXPECTED...AND THE AREA IS UNDER
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN
AND CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL HANG BACK AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF WEATHER FEATURES TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA JUST OFF THE BAJA. WE SIT IN A DEEP AND VERY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ON THE STORMS WET EAST SIDE. PW`S ARE OVER
1.65" WITH A MAX OF NEAR 1 3/4" EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS PUTS OUR AREA JUST BELOW THE RECORD
LEVELS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER PW. THE STORM ITSELF WILL CONTINUE IT`S
TRACK NORTH AND A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN AZ...JUST SW OF
TUCSON, AZ. THE CENTER IS PROGED TO CROSS INTO THE U.S. LATE WED
EVENING...AND TRACK OVER THE GILA AND INTO CENTRAL NM ON THURSDAY.
THIS IS THE SET UP FOR THE ANTICIPATED WEATHER THE NEXT 72 HRS.

THIS AFTERNOON WE SEE CONVECTIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA IN THE REGION WITH BETTER SUNSHINE. THE
STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTH SO WE ANTICIPATED AN INCREASE IN
STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY AND DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH ANOTHER ODILE BAND. THIS SPOKE WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVER THE CWFA IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. OVERALL RAINFALL RATES OF .3 TO .75" PER HOUR IS EXPECTED
BUT THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 2X TO 3X THOSE
RATES...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT.

LIKE WE DID TODAY...WE MIGHT SEE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER IN THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AND MORE SO AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN
ACTIVITY STARTING OVER WESTERN ZONES IN THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA AS
ODILE BEGINS TO NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THIS AREA OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF INCREASE BOTH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THUS POPS IN THE 80-100% PROBABILITY ARE
COMMON AND STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
EAST...2-4" CENTRAL...3-5" WESTERN LOWLANDS...4-6" AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE PCPN AMOUNT ACROSS THE
REGION AND GREATER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-9" OVER LOCAL AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AREAS MTNS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. OF SPECIAL NOTE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WON`T TOTALLY DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS SO WE`LL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO CRAWL UP THE BAJA...MUCH LIKE NORBERT DID. IT COULD
GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z - 18/00Z...
AN IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY UP AROUND TROPICAL THE EASTERN SIDE OF
STORM ODILE...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDY SKIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO SOUTHERN NM /
WEST TX THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WED AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR LOWLAND CLDS SCT 010-020 BKN-OVC
CIGS TO 030-050 AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA.
CIGS TO 005 NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN
OBSCURATIONS THROUGH PD. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE FROM ENE-SE AROUND 06-09 KTS.

22-TRIPOLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN FOREASTING TRACK OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FEATURE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT INITIALLY HEADS NORTH
EAST INTO ARIZONA...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY
EVENING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

14-TRIPOLI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  80  68  82  69 /  90  80 100  90  50
SIERRA BLANCA           63  75  63  78  62 /  60  50  70  90  50
LAS CRUCES              65  79  65  80  66 /  90  90 100  90  50
ALAMOGORDO              66  80  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  80
CLOUDCROFT              51  58  49  61  49 / 100  90 100 100 100
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  79  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  60
SILVER CITY             59  75  60  75  60 / 100 100 100  90  70
DEMING                  63  80  64  82  64 /  90 100 100  80  50
LORDSBURG               64  80  65  80  64 / 100 100 100  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  79  68  82  68 /  90  80 100  90  50
DELL CITY               65  79  65  82  64 /  60  60  70 100  70
FORT HANCOCK            64  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  80  90  50
LOMA LINDA              62  74  62  75  64 /  90  60  90  90  60
FABENS                  67  80  66  82  67 /  80  80 100  90  50
SANTA TERESA            65  79  66  81  67 /  90  90 100  80  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  77  65  80  66 /  90  80 100  90  60
JORNADA RANGE           61  79  62  81  61 /  90  90 100  90  60
HATCH                   63  77  64  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  50
COLUMBUS                67  79  65  82  66 /  90  90 100  60  50
OROGRANDE               66  77  66  79  66 /  90  70  90 100  70
MAYHILL                 55  67  54  69  55 / 100  90 100 100 100
MESCALERO               56  68  55  71  56 / 100  90 100 100 100
TIMBERON                54  66  52  68  54 / 100  90 100 100  90
WINSTON                 56  71  55  72  58 /  90 100 100 100  70
HILLSBORO               60  75  59  75  62 /  90 100 100 100  70
SPACEPORT               62  77  63  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  60
LAKE ROBERTS            56  74  55  75  58 / 100 100 100 100  70
HURLEY                  61  77  61  77  63 / 100 100 100  80  70
CLIFF                   55  77  54  78  54 / 100 100 100  80  70
MULE CREEK              52  76  51  76  53 / 100 100 100  90  70
FAYWOOD                 60  76  61  76  63 /  90 100 100  80  70
ANIMAS                  65  78  66  82  65 / 100  90 100  60  60
HACHITA                 61  80  62  82  62 / 100 100 100  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  79  62  83  61 / 100  90 100  60  50
CLOVERDALE              59  78  59  79  62 / 100  90 100  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/22







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BORDERLAND IS CERTAIN TO GET MORE RAIN...AND A LOT OF
IT...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. FLASH
FLOODING...SOME OF IT SERIOUS IS EXPECTED...AND THE AREA IS UNDER
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN
AND CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL HANG BACK AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF WEATHER FEATURES TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA JUST OFF THE BAJA. WE SIT IN A DEEP AND VERY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ON THE STORMS WET EAST SIDE. PW`S ARE OVER
1.65" WITH A MAX OF NEAR 1 3/4" EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS PUTS OUR AREA JUST BELOW THE RECORD
LEVELS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER PW. THE STORM ITSELF WILL CONTINUE IT`S
TRACK NORTH AND A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN AZ...JUST SW OF
TUCSON, AZ. THE CENTER IS PROGED TO CROSS INTO THE U.S. LATE WED
EVENING...AND TRACK OVER THE GILA AND INTO CENTRAL NM ON THURSDAY.
THIS IS THE SET UP FOR THE ANTICIPATED WEATHER THE NEXT 72 HRS.

THIS AFTERNOON WE SEE CONVECTIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA IN THE REGION WITH BETTER SUNSHINE. THE
STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTH SO WE ANTICIPATED AN INCREASE IN
STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY AND DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH ANOTHER ODILE BAND. THIS SPOKE WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVER THE CWFA IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. OVERALL RAINFALL RATES OF .3 TO .75" PER HOUR IS EXPECTED
BUT THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 2X TO 3X THOSE
RATES...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT.

LIKE WE DID TODAY...WE MIGHT SEE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER IN THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AND MORE SO AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN
ACTIVITY STARTING OVER WESTERN ZONES IN THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA AS
ODILE BEGINS TO NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THIS AREA OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF INCREASE BOTH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THUS POPS IN THE 80-100% PROBABILITY ARE
COMMON AND STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
EAST...2-4" CENTRAL...3-5" WESTERN LOWLANDS...4-6" AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE PCPN AMOUNT ACROSS THE
REGION AND GREATER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-9" OVER LOCAL AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AREAS MTNS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. OF SPECIAL NOTE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WON`T TOTALLY DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS SO WE`LL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO CRAWL UP THE BAJA...MUCH LIKE NORBERT DID. IT COULD
GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z - 18/00Z...
AN IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY UP AROUND TROPICAL THE EASTERN SIDE OF
STORM ODILE...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDY SKIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO SOUTHERN NM /
WEST TX THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WED AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR LOWLAND CLDS SCT 010-020 BKN-OVC
CIGS TO 030-050 AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA.
CIGS TO 005 NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN
OBSCURATIONS THROUGH PD. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE FROM ENE-SE AROUND 06-09 KTS.

22-TRIPOLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN FOREASTING TRACK OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FEATURE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT INITIALLY HEADS NORTH
EAST INTO ARIZONA...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY
EVENING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

14-TRIPOLI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  80  68  82  69 /  90  80 100  90  50
SIERRA BLANCA           63  75  63  78  62 /  60  50  70  90  50
LAS CRUCES              65  79  65  80  66 /  90  90 100  90  50
ALAMOGORDO              66  80  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  80
CLOUDCROFT              51  58  49  61  49 / 100  90 100 100 100
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  79  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  60
SILVER CITY             59  75  60  75  60 / 100 100 100  90  70
DEMING                  63  80  64  82  64 /  90 100 100  80  50
LORDSBURG               64  80  65  80  64 / 100 100 100  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  79  68  82  68 /  90  80 100  90  50
DELL CITY               65  79  65  82  64 /  60  60  70 100  70
FORT HANCOCK            64  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  80  90  50
LOMA LINDA              62  74  62  75  64 /  90  60  90  90  60
FABENS                  67  80  66  82  67 /  80  80 100  90  50
SANTA TERESA            65  79  66  81  67 /  90  90 100  80  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  77  65  80  66 /  90  80 100  90  60
JORNADA RANGE           61  79  62  81  61 /  90  90 100  90  60
HATCH                   63  77  64  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  50
COLUMBUS                67  79  65  82  66 /  90  90 100  60  50
OROGRANDE               66  77  66  79  66 /  90  70  90 100  70
MAYHILL                 55  67  54  69  55 / 100  90 100 100 100
MESCALERO               56  68  55  71  56 / 100  90 100 100 100
TIMBERON                54  66  52  68  54 / 100  90 100 100  90
WINSTON                 56  71  55  72  58 /  90 100 100 100  70
HILLSBORO               60  75  59  75  62 /  90 100 100 100  70
SPACEPORT               62  77  63  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  60
LAKE ROBERTS            56  74  55  75  58 / 100 100 100 100  70
HURLEY                  61  77  61  77  63 / 100 100 100  80  70
CLIFF                   55  77  54  78  54 / 100 100 100  80  70
MULE CREEK              52  76  51  76  53 / 100 100 100  90  70
FAYWOOD                 60  76  61  76  63 /  90 100 100  80  70
ANIMAS                  65  78  66  82  65 / 100  90 100  60  60
HACHITA                 61  80  62  82  62 / 100 100 100  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  79  62  83  61 / 100  90 100  60  50
CLOVERDALE              59  78  59  79  62 / 100  90 100  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/22






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